Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
-than-expected! You can be forgiven for thinking that the start of this week's Newsletter is missing; after all, it is impossible to start any sentence with "-than-expected!" But I'm off on another 'soap-box' moment Friday because we have had the "better-than-expected" corporate figures out of the US and now we have the "faster-than-expected" retail sales growth! What Next? "Deeper-than-expected" decline once it all goes pear-shaped again? Ladies and Gentlemen, we are back at staggering levels a year after the so-called 'worst recession in history'. Now I ask you a very simple question this morning; "from the depths of that so-called recession 12-18 months ago, have global economics and financials improved enough to warrant the 90% growth since those lows?" Absolutely not and whilst we may have witnessed a paradigm shift in the fundamentals - meaning that what we used to consider as strong indicators to the global economy are no longer important - you cannot escape the fact that stockmarkets have gotten way, way ahead of themselves. It used to be those fundamentals that drove markets - now it appears to be CNBC, Bloomberg and anything US-Financial-Media-related. I see the US driving markets up as high as they can realistically go, grabbing their parachutes and then bailing out (every pun intended) before the rest of the world takes a nose-dive. The coming week is going to be more than interesting in terms of watching how much further the US try to stick the boot into Greece and Europe in general. As if the problems in the US were not serious enough to need addressing, each and every American financial person has suddenly become an 'expert' on Greece and are advising anyone stupid enough to listen that Greece is heading for the toilet and Europe can do nothing to stop it. Hang on a minute my American counterparts; I'd say the same thing about the US to be honest but I'll give you 3-5 years before you and your currency flows down the pan yourselves! But here's the rub. America is 'owned' by a select group of people in finance and if anyone suffers while they grow richer - tough! These group of 'select people' running the US of A make money when there is financial turmoil. If society is at peace and prosperous, these people do not do as well. So it is beneficial to these parasites to have unending trouble and the rest of the world be damned. The rest of the world are not part of these elite 'chosen' and their suffering is just their own bad luck. China is doing so well economically and emerging so fast as the global financial power-house, it has to be taken down a peg or two to slow it down - at whatever costs necessary. This is especially true since the Chinese have chosen not to be taken in by the truly chosen - the most recent select group of US money-men's scheme did not hurt China enough. China are too smart for their own good, and must be destroyed (even if it means starving a hundred million or two of them in the process - they are not the chosen, so who cares?). The American Dollar is indeed "invincible", in that these select financial people firmly believe that they have an ace up their sleeve that no other nation in the history of Man ever had..... The power to make war on any and all other nations! If America wants its currency stronger again at any time in the future, all this parasitic group of bankers/financial politicians have to do is to invoke the unholy alliance clause, and make war in some significant choke point on the world. Investments in US government securities would flow into the US again, even if this financial investment benefits only these elite group of people. The US think that printing money faster is the key. Printing money faster will accelerate the demand for a replacement reserve currency and I cannot for the life of me understand why they cannot see this. A worldwide economic shock with the dumping of 2 trillion US Dollar from the Chinese, Russians and Japanese would immediately get the world community to replace the US Dollar. The US Dollar is NOT invincible and neither is America. The sooner these idiots stop believing the tales they are spun on CNBC, Bloomberg and the like, the better chance they have of stopping their country going down that pan! Off of my soap-box with pulse relatively low still! A topic that I wanted to touch on this week stems from a meeting that I had Wednesday. I was sat with a young couple, filling in various application forms and on some of those forms they were asked to divulge the following: "Net annual salary; bonuses or gratuities; rental income; investment income; pension income; housing allowance; holiday allowance; any other forms of income". The young couple asked why all of these questions were being asked and quite simply Ladies & Gentlemen, I wanted to outline to you all that any regulated financial entity worth its salt today, will ask to know where the funds are coming from. This is in accordance with global anti-money-laundering guidelines. It's not a vase of banks and investment companies being 'nosey', they need to justify where the money has come from. It is not their role to ascertain whether you have paid tax on it or not, but to filter out potential money-launderers. As an example, a young man earns 60,000 Euro a year and has no other visible means of income. He wants to invest 300,000 Euro in one go and then save 5,000 Euro a month. That would be an automatic 'flag' to any viable bank or investment company because if he is investing 5 years' worth of salary and is planning on saving 100% of his salary each month, what is he living off of? It may seem bizarre Ladies & Gentlemen, but on average I get two cases each month where the potential client simply cannot justify where their source of income is coming from and alas, unless they are able to do so, they cannot use our services. A classic example of this has been seen this week once more with Switzerland and them not abiding by the global anti-money-laundering regulations. Swiss regulators are probing whether investors are buying life insurance to hide undeclared assets from tax authorities as the dispute over banking secrecy widens. "We are checking selectively if there is a need for regulator action," said Alain Bichsel, a spokesman for the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, known as Finma, in Bern. "We are warning of the risk." The concern is that so-called wrapper products, sold by insurers through units in Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and Singapore, are being used to conceal untaxed money. Finma's review comes a year after Switzerland agreed to cooperate with international regulators to avoid being blacklisted by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Swiss Life Holding AG doubled premiums from life policies that mask underlying bank deposits and client identities to about 5 billion Swiss francs ($4.7 billion) last year. Baloise Holding AG in Basel reported a similar increase in sales at its Liechtenstein life insurance unit. An insurer that accepts premiums "without checking whether it comes from untaxed money makes itself guilty of assisting foreign tax evasion," said a partner at a Zurich- based law firm, referring to the insurance wrappers. "It is nothing but old wine in new bottles," he said. When a client buys a wrapper, the beneficial ownership of the assets is transferred to the insurer while the funds often remain on the balance sheet of private banks. Insurers invest the premiums through advisers and clients receive benefits tied to the performance of the underlying investment. Taxes are minimized or deferred because life insurance policies are classified as non-income producing assets. Swiss Life Chief Executive Officer Bruno Pfister said the country's biggest life insurer doesn't want its wrapper business to be open to tax evaders. "We take Finma's warning seriously," Pfister said in a March 30 interview from his Zurich headquarters. "We see it as positive to try and curb this misuse." Baloise says its Liechtenstein unit, which had life insurance premiums of 1.6 billion francs last year, asks foreign clients for a written declaration on the tax status of assets. "There are quite a lot of clients we don't accept," said Jan de Meulder, head of the Basel-based insurer's international corporate division, in a March 18 presentation. The examination of sales practices at Swiss insurers comes as France and Germany step up the search for tax cheats and tighten rules on life policies. Swiss insurers may open themselves to lawsuits when they provide wrappers to French and German citizens seeking to evade taxes, according to Finma. Private banking clients are buying wrappers in the wake of the Swiss government's agreement to hand over account data on UBS customers to the US Internal Revenue Service to settle a dispute over suspected tax evasion. Zurich-based UBS is Switzerland's largest bank by market value. Swiss Life and Baloise say their cross-border businesses benefitted from the Italian tax amnesty, or scudo fiscale. The exemption, extended until April 30, allows Italians to apply for pardons in return for paying a fine of 5% to 7% of undeclared assets. Investors also may opt to take out life insurance and leave the assets at their private banks instead of repatriating them. Demand for wrappers increased in the past year as clients search for low-tax investments, said Alfredo Gysi, chief executive officer of BSI Group, the Lugano, Switzerland-based private bank owned by Assicurazioni Generali SpA, Europe's third-biggest insurer. "The move toward tax compliant models has increased the attractiveness of those products," Gysi said. "Lower taxes are a part of it." Total cross-border life insurance premiums in Ireland, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg, which became the three biggest providers in Europe because of flexible regulations and low corporate taxes, were about 30 billion Euros ($40.2 billion) in 2008. "A lot of assets are hidden behind insurance wrappers," said a director at London-based Tax Research LLP, which campaigns for greater tax transparency. "Don't tell me this market isn't big and isn't vibrant for any other reason than tax evasion. I'm sure it is." While there is no law requiring insurers to ensure that client money has been declared, they have a legal obligation to fight money laundering, organized crime and the financing of terrorism, said the managing director of the Liechtenstein insurance association. "People are definitely trying to look for alternative locations for money, and alternative mechanisms to hide money," Tax-Research LLP said. "I have very serious doubts whether a lot of insurance companies have anything like an adequate system in place to ensure that they are really able to manage this." UBS, which has life insurance units in Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and Ireland, checks the source of premiums and the legitimacy of the business purpose, said spokesman Serge Steiner. The company doesn't support activities that "serve the avoidance of tax liabilities," he said. Credit Suisse Group AG, Switzerland's second-largest bank by market value, applies "a thorough due diligence with regards to account openings and handling of client assets," said a spokesman for the Zurich-based company. "However, no bank has the obligation nor the possibility to know a client's tax situation," the spokesman said. This is why I have always advocated using highly regulated offshore centres such as Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man and whilst it may be a little 'painful' in administrative terms when it comes to answering a raft of questions on various application forms, I am fully behind this approach because this is what enables these locations to be fully transparent and not go down the same route as Switzerland; in turn, attracting unwarranted tax attention. Long may these strong regulatory controls continue. So the next time you are completing a form for opening a bank account or some other form of investment, rather than complain about the many questions contained within the form, consider it positive that the company is following the regulations to the letter and this is always a good thing in my book; this is what keeps the regulated offshore centres running and not following the routes of Switzerland and Luxembourg with all of the problems and challenges they are facing. On to the numbers on the boards this week: |
| US Markets
How the US did this week ..... | |
US stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly above 11,000 for the first time since September 2008, as growth in wholesale inventories added to signs the economy is strengthening. Chevron Corp. led the Dow's gain after saying its oil refineries returned to profitability. Dish Network Corp. and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. rallied at least 3.5% on analyst upgrades. Equities also advanced as European officials said they're ready to bail out Greece if needed, assuaging concern a default by the nation will stifle the global economic recovery. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to an 18-month high of 1,194.37 at 4 p.m. in New York and rose 1.4% over the past five days for a sixth-straight weekly gain, its longest streak in a year. The Dow increased 70.28 points, or 0.6%, to 10,997.35 and reached as high as 11,000.98. US stocks rose Friday as retailers rallied on "faster-than-estimated" (I covered this earlier) sales growth, helping the market recover from an early slump triggered by concern over Greece's debt crisis. The S&P 500 has climbed 7.1% this year and the Dow is up 5.5%. This week's gains came after the government reported the biggest growth in jobs in three years on April 2, while pending home sales unexpectedly rose. The Dow ended less than three points below 11,000, a level it hasn't closed above since September 2008, when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy. Although the index crossed above and below 11,000 in 1999 and 2000, it didn't "definitively" rise above it until 2006! A gauge of energy companies had the biggest gain in the S&P 500 among 10 industries, climbing 1.1%. The group has had the best start to the second quarter, rallying 4.1%, followed by financial stocks with a 3.8% advance. Friday's advance in energy equities came even as oil and gasoline retreated. Natural gas surged 4.1% after dropping for three days. Chevron said its oil refineries returned to profitability during the first quarter as margins earned from processing crude into fuel widened. The second-largest US energy producer advanced 2.4% to $79.50, its biggest gain since February. Atlas Energy climbed 20% to $38.25, the most in a year, after saying it will transfer an interest in Marcellus Shale assets to a wholly owned affiliate in a transaction valued at $1.7 billion. Range Resources Corp. also advanced, adding 4% to $50.28. Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest producer of the precious metal, increased 0.8% to $41.29. Gold for June delivery climbed 0.8% to $1,161.90 an ounce, its highest price since December, gaining as an alternative to currencies. DISH, the second-largest satellite TV provider, rallied 3.5% to $21.77 after UBS boosted its rating to "buy" from "neutral," citing competitive and economic improvements. Abercrombie & Fitch advanced 6.6% to $49.98 after Bank of America Merrill Lynch upgraded the shares to "neutral" from "underperform." J.C. Penney was added to the Goldman Sachs "conviction buy list" and had its shares raised to "buy" from "neutral." The stock advanced 1.7% to $31.52. Intel Corp. gained 1.1% to $22.55 after Canaccord Adams Ltd. said the chipmaker probably saw better-than-expected demand for notebooks last quarter and raised its share-price estimate to $27 from $25. Jacobs Engineering Group surged the most in the S&P 500, as CNBC reported speculation private-equity investors may take over the engineering company. The shares climbed 7.5% to $47.61. S&P 500 companies will post a 30% profit growth for the first quarter, according to analysts' estimates. Alcoa, which fell 3.2% for the second-biggest drop in the S&P 500 Friday, is scheduled to post results on April 12. Constellation Brands dropped 2.5% to $16.43 after forecasting profit excluding some items that trailed the average analyst estimate. |
| European Markets
What has been happening in Europe this week ..... | |
European stocks rose, sending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to the highest level since September 2008, amid speculation that a bailout for Greece is imminent and as stronger-than-estimated retail sales in the US fueled optimism about the economic recovery. Greek banks rallied. Givaudan SA surged 5.4% after the world's biggest maker of flavors and fragrances said sales rose. Petroplus Holdings AG climbed 7.8% after saying it expects to end the quarter with a positive net cash position. The Stoxx 600 gained 3.46, or 1.3%, to 269.74. The measure is up 0.8% this week, a sixth straight advance and the longest winning streak in a year. The index climbed 6.2% in 2010 as central banks maintained record low interest rates and the European Union agreed a contingency rescue plan to help prevent Greece from defaulting on its debt. National benchmark indexes gained in all but one of the 18 western European markets Friday. The UK's FTSE 100 Index advanced 1%, France's CAC 40 added 1.8% and Germany's DAX rose 1.3%. Luxembourg's LuxX Index slipped 0.5%. GERMANY German stocks rose, with the benchmark DAX Index posting a sixth straight weekly gain, as the country's exports climbed the most in eight months and expectations grew a bailout for Greece is imminent. Henkel AG led gains as Commerzbank AG upgraded shares of the maker of Loctite glues. ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany's largest steelmaker, increased as copper led a rally in metals prices. The DAX rose 1.3% to 6,249.7, snapping two days of declines and bringing this week's gain to 0.2%. The measure climbed 3.3% in the first three months of 2010, a fourth straight quarterly increase, as the European Union agreed a contingency rescue package to help Greece cut Europe's biggest budget deficit and the Federal reserve pledged to keep interest rates low for an extended period. The broader HDAX Index also gained 1.3% Friday. German exports, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, rose 5.1% in February from January, when they fell 6.5%, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said Friday. That's the biggest increase since June 2009. Economists forecast a gain of 4%, the median of nine estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. Imports rose 0.2% from January. Henkel climbed 3.3% to 41.06 Euros as Commerzbank raised its recommendation on the stock to "add" from "hold." ThyssenKrupp gained 1% to 26.56 Euros. Copper rose for the first time in three days after the Dollar fell against the Euro, improving the appeal of commodities as alternative investments. Aluminum, lead, nickel, tin and zinc also gained on the London Metal Exchange. E.ON AG and RWE AG advanced 3.1% to 28.34 Euros and 2.6% to 67.84 Euros, respectively. German power for delivery next year posted the biggest weekly gain in 11 months as higher near-term costs spurred traders to revalue longer- dated contracts. Symrise AG, the world's fourth-biggest maker of scents and flavors, gained 3.4% to 18.69 Euros. Competitor Givaudan SA said first-quarter sales rose to 1.07 billion francs ($1 billion) from 976 million francs, boosted by increasing demand in developing markets. VTG AG jumped 8.9% to 12.10 Euros as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added the company that offers rail car hire to its "conviction buy" list. Nordex SE surged 5.4% to 8.91 Euros after the company said it has signed a framework agreement with the municipally owned Swedish utility Skelleftea Kraft AB to supply a total of 118 turbines in the N100/2500 series. FRANCE France's benchmark CAC 40 Index climbed 72.08, or 1.8%, to 4,050.54 in Paris, advancing for the first time in three days. The broader SBF 120 Index gained 1.7%. Aeroports de Paris rallied 3.22 cents, or 5.2%, to 64.78 after CA Cheuvreux raised its price estimate for the operator of the French capital's Roissy-Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports by 11% to 72 Euros. ArcelorMittal gained 22 cents, or 0.7%, to 34.07 Euros. Xstrata Plc has approached Macarthur Coal Ltd. shareholders Posco and ArcelorMittal about a potential rival bid for the Australian company, the Australian Financial Review reported, without saying where it got the information. Air France-KLM rallied 43 cents, or 3.6%, to 12.30 Euros after Europe's biggest airline reported a 4.7% rise in passenger traffic for March. Cegid lost 9 cents, or 0.4%, to 22.30 Euros. The developer of enterprise business systems posted a 6.8% drop in first-quarter sales to 58 million Euros. European Aeronautic, Defence & Co. climbed 36 cents, or 2.5%, to 14.90 Euros. The defense company's board meets in Munich Friday to evaluate possible US partners for its US Air Force tanker contract bid, La Tribune reported, citing unidentified people. L-3 Communications Holdings Inc., Raytheon Co. and BAE Systems North America will be under consideration, according to the newspaper. HEurtey Petrochem gained 66 cents, or 2.8%, to 23.90 Euros after the producer of oil-industry equipment said it won contracts in Indonesia and Australia worth $10 million. Pernod Ricard increased 1.60 Euros, or 2.5%, to 64.78 Euros. The company and Russian Standard Vodka said they have reached a settlement of claims brought by Russian Standard against Pernod Ricard in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York. Passenger traffic at Air France-KLM rose 4.7% in March, the Franco-Dutch airline group said on Thursday. The passenger load factor, or proportion of seats sold, was up 5 percentage points to 80.5% as Air France-KLM reduced capacity by 1.9%, the group said. Cargo, which closely tracks trends in the economy, saw a 2.1% rise in traffic on 11.8% lower capacity. The load factor -- or proportion of available space sold in passenger jet cargo holds and dedicated freighters - rose by 9.9 percentage points to 72.5%. Air France said its unit revenues were clearly above those of March 2009 but remained below the level of March 2008. BELGIUM In Brussels the Bel 20 finished the week Friday on 2,702.87, a gain of 1.28% on the day. Belgian energy company Electrabel, owned by French utilities giant GDF Suez said its Chief Executive Jean-Pierre Hansen had asked the board to end his mandate. Hansen, who will remain a director and retain a seat on the utility's executive committee, will be replaced by Dirk Beeuwsaert, Electrabel said in a statement following a board meeting on Wednesday. Hansen would also continue to lead the group's talks with the Belgian government to extend the lifetime of Electrabel's three oldest nuclear reactors, Electrabel said. Belgian mobile operator Mobistar said it has completed the acquisition of the Belgian business-to-business (B2B) and carrier activities of Dutch telecom group KPN for Eur65m (USD87.6m) on a cash and debt-free basis. Dutch waste processing firm Van Gansewinkel said it has agreed to buy Belgian sector player Leysen from Belgium's Thenergo, which is engaged in the biomass clean energy sector. Belgian specialist in digital video applications for TV production EVS Broadcast Equipment announced it had bought French OpenCube Technologies, providing technology solutions for MXF media, to boost its presence in production and postproduction studios. The Belgian government has banned imports of citrus longhorn beetle (Anoplophora chinensis) host plants from China after the European standing committee on plant health failed to reach a decision at last week's phytosanitary meeting. The move will force the European Commission into further talks on current rules, with a potential pan European ban on Chinese imports at the heart of the negotiations. THE NETHERLANDS The Aex in Amsterdam closed out the day on 355.89, up 1.42%. TNT NV, the Dutch post and express mail company, said Thursday it is planning eventually to sell or spin off its mail arm, which represents a large share of its business. TNT did not set a time frame for the strategic change. However, it said it does not see the mail arm, which was once the Netherlands' state-owned mail company, as compatible with its other operations. TNT said in a statement ahead of its annual shareholder meeting that it will begin legally separating the mail business and surveying potential buyers for interest. It will also consider a separate stock market listing for the division. "A final decision...will require preparation time and depends on a full assessment of all possible alternatives," the company said in a statement. The United States and the Netherlands on Thursday abstained from supporting a controversial World Bank loan for a coal-fired power plant in South Africa, citing concerns about its impact on the environment. A Dutch Foreign Ministry spokesman said it had advised its representative at the World Bank to abstain and withhold its support for the project. Dutch insurer Aegon said it has completed the sale of its funeral insurance unit Aegon Nabestaandenzorg for Eur212m (USD 284.7m) to home investment firm Egeria. Anglo-Dutch consumer goods group Unilever is ready to open the auction process for its Italian frozen food unit Findus in the next few weeks. Dutch oil and gas company Royal Dutch Shell is mulling over a sale of its Finnish activities under a strategy to offload non-core assets and concentrate on larger markets. Dutch software firm TIE Holding said it has bought the remaining 24.5% it did not already own in home sector player MamboFive. SWITZERLAND Zurich's SMI ended the week at 6,888.97, a rise of 1.44%. Credit Suisse has been fined by the British Financial Services Authority (FSA) for failing to provide accurate and timely transaction reports. The Swiss bank was ordered to pay £1.75 million (SFr2.86 million) as the British authorities step up efforts to clamp down on market abuse. The number of suspected cases of money laundering reached an all-time high last year affecting assets worth a total of SFr2.23 billion ($2.1 billion). The Federal Police Office said 896 incidents were reported in 2009, more than five% up on the previous year. Two out of three of all reports were made by the banking sector, followed by cases involving the payment service sector. Seven suspected cases concerned terrorism financing to the tune of SFr9,500. Records on suspicious transactions have been kept since 1998. The amended money laundering act, which came into force last year, made reporting a suspicious financial transaction mandatory even in cases where contract negotiations have been broken off. A privately-held market trader, Getco and an agency broker, Nomura, were also found to have committed multiple breaches, according to the FSA. It added that all three firms had ignored repeated reminders during 2007 and 2008 to review their data regularly. Credit Suisse said it regretted the incidents, which were mainly the result of technical communication errors. In another development, the bank has rejected allegations that it has been targeted by United States prosecutors trying to bring a flurry of new cases against individuals suspected of tax evasion. While the banking, watch-making and manufacturing industries gather most headlines, the Swiss commodities trading sector has been making headway almost undetected. Last year, trading in commodities such as oil, grain and electricity contributed around two% of the total Swiss economic output - about the same as tourism. But the secretive sector is undergoing changes. Switzerland has long been a global centre in the commodities trading world thanks to its central European location, strong banking tradition and stable political and economic system. The flow of cotton and coffee has passed through Swiss borders for hundreds of years while the oil booms in the Middle East and Russia increased Switzerland's importance. But recent changes to the commodities industry, using ever more complex financial instruments to trade and speculate, has led to an explosion of activity in Zug, and most importantly, Geneva. Switzerland's unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in March, down from 4.4% in February, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said in a report on Thursday. Consensus forecast was for 4.3%. The number of registered unemployed at the end of March totaled 166,032, down 6,967 from the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the jobless rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, in line with economists' expectations. Switzerland's retail sales recorded an annual growth of 3.1% in real terms in February, following January's revised 3.7% rise, the Federal Statistical Office said in a report on Wednesday. Turnover in the retail sector climbed by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% month-on-month in February, reversing a 0.4% fall in January. Retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco slipped 0.1%, while non-food sector sales grew 0.7%. In nominal terms, retail sales grew 0.3% on a monthly basis in February taking the annual growth to 2.5%. Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office is scheduled to release the consumer price index or CPI data for March on Tuesday. The CPI is expected to rise 1.4% on an annual basis for March, faster than the 0.9% increase seen in the previous month. The CPI data is due at 3.15 am ET. Month-on-month, the CPI inflation is forecast to be 0.1%, same as in the previous month. Bank Sarasin said it is still too early to expect inflation to rise in a meaningful way. AUSTRIA The ATX in Vienna headed into the weekend on 2,765.84, raising 1.64% on the day Friday. Austrians save more than the European average, new figures show. Federal statistics agency Statistik Austria said Thursday (Weds) Austrians put eleven% of their incomes into saving accounts last year - while the average European Union (EU) rate was 5.5%. And 8.3% of incomes in the Eurozone - the 16 European countries who have the Euro as their currency - was saved in 2009. Austrians saved 12% of their incomes in 2008. The value of income meanwhile remained relatively stable year on year. Employees earned 1.5% more in 2009 compared to the previous year, while earnings of self-employed business people dropped by 1.7%. Energy provider Salzburg AG announced a year on year turnover increase for its 2009 business year. Bosses at the firm said turnover soared by 15.4% to 1.53 billion Euros mainly thanks to the extension of its trading activities. Energy consumption by households and companies in Salzburg province meanwhile declined by 0.6% to 4.1 billion kilowatt hours. Salzburg AG also delivered significantly less natural gas in the province with three billion kilowatt hours, down by 16%. Company officials explained the dramatic decrease of gas consumption by major customers in the economic crisis was the reason. Salzburg AG is also active in the mobile communications and entertainment market. It said the number of Salzburg-based cable TV consumers jumped by 5.3% to 100,156, while the number of people accessing the internet over Salzburg AG providers improved by 6.4% to 53,004. The number of landline phone connection customers even soared by 38.1% to 13,501. Austrian spirits producer Stroh has revealed plans to enter the Chinese market. The Klagenfurt-based firm said Wednesday it wanted to "test the potential for its products in China" this year. Stroh already exports 66% of the four million litres it produces every year into 29 countries. The company's best known product is its Stroh 80 rum which contains 80% alcohol. Stroh rums are popular ingredients for traditional Austrian confection bakery. Experts said it had to be seen whether Stroh's expansion to China turned out to be a success since the country was not known for having a drinking culture (ha-ha, they obviously have not been to the North of China!). Austrian cellulose fibres producer Lenzing said it has bought a 75% stake in Czech pulp maker Biocel Paskov from Austrian Heinzel Holding. Austria's wholesale prices climbed 3.1% year-on-year in March, faster than 1.2% in February, the Statistics Austria said Wednesday. The index rose 0.8% month-on-month. During the first quarter of the year, wholesale prices increased 1.6% from a year ago. SWEDEN Stockholm's OMX rounded off the day Friday on 1,044.58, up 0.76% for Friday's trading session. Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB Thursday said first-quarter net profit rose a better-than-expected 45% and March sales were also sharply up, pushing its shares to an all-time high in afternoon trading. "There is increased traffic in our stores," Chief Executive Karl-Johan Persson said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. "It looks like private consumption is gaining steam in a lot of our markets." Net profit came in at 3.74 billion Swedish kronor ($477.5 million) from SEK2.58 billion a year earlier, beating a forecast of SEK3.39 billion from a Dow Jones Newswires survey of five analysts. Revenue in the quarter to Feb. 28 rose 6.6% to SEK24.8 billion from SEK23.3 billion a year earlier, below expectations of SEK25.03 billion. The Swedish company faced easy comparables from a dismal first quarter last year, but it also boosted the bottom line through successful currency hedging as the gross margin jumped to 62% from 57% a year earlier. H&M, the world's third-largest fashion chain by revenue behind US-based Gap Inc. and Spain's Inditex SA, has rapidly expanded its stores for several years but opened only 10 in the first quarter from a targeted 240 this year, helping to boost operating profit to SEK4.98 billion as it contained costs. Meanwhile, March sales grew 21% compared with a year earlier and sales from stores open more than one year were up 9%. In December 2009, H&M reversed a seven month long streak of declining sales in comparable stores, and although February same-store sales were down 1%, Persson believes the company is on a solid growth path. TeliaSonera's chief executive said on Wednesday he was cautiously optimistic about business in the year ahead and stuck to the firm's outlook for strong cost management and a higher core profit. The telecoms industry has come through the global downturn relatively well and TeliaSonera - the Nordic region's biggest operator - has said previously that a turnaround would come later this year, or possibly in 2011. TeliaSonera still expects both a higher turnover and a higher EBITDA margin this year compared to 2009 mainly due to continued growth in its Eurasian operations. "For 2010, we are cautiously optimistic, even if above all the Baltic market continues to feel the effects of the crisis," Chief Executive Lars Nyberg said at the company's annual general meeting. Sweden's Post and Telecom Agency said Thursday it has ordered TeliaSonera to cut prices it charges other operators for using its fixed networks. TeliaSonera will have to cut the prices for a number of products and services by around 1%-10%, the regulator said, adding that the price regulation is intended to improve competition in the market. Nina Stridsberg, head of communications at TeliaSonera's Swedish infrastructure unit Skanova, said the company will follow the regulator's ruling although it plans to appeal it later on. Första AP-Fonden, the largest of Sweden's pension funds, has delisted the Israeli defense company Elbit Systems from its global investments portfolio, citing ethical reasons centered on Elbit's involvement in the design, installation and operation of a surveillance system for the controversial barrier running between Israel and the West Bank. The Swedish fund becomes the latest Nordic financial institution to drop Elbit from its investment portfolio. The Norwegian State Pension Fund delisted Elbit last September, and Danske Bank Pension Funds in Denmark followed suit in February. "The Ethical Council recommended that Elbit Systems should be excluded from each portfolio because it deems that the company can be linked to violations of fundamental conventions and norms through its active development, delivery and maintenance of the custom-made monitoring system for certain parts of the separation barrier being built on the West Bank," Första AP-Fonden's Ethical Council said in a statement. The council said it took its action after entering a dialogue with Elbit that failed to produce "the intended results." The barrier, which comprises a network of walls, fences and closed military roads, was built by Israel as a line of defense to prevent terrorist attacks. However, Palestinians have described it as an "apartheid wall" that blocks off important areas of their "future state." According to U.N. data, Israel has completed some 413 kilometers of the planned 709-kilometer barrier; 85% of the finished wall will be built inside the West Bank. Elbit would not respond in any detail to Första AP-Fonden's delisting decision. "We do not plan to comment on the matter." DENMARK In Copenhagen the OMX completed at hectic shortened week on 393.99, a gain of 0.43% for the day Friday. Denmark's largest meat company, Danish Crown, implemented its self-proclaimed 'Plan B' Thursday, laying off 580 of its employees. The company claimed the dismissals are the direct result of the latest bargaining agreement negotiated between the Confederation of Danish Industries and the Danish Food and Allied Workers' Union (NNF). Danish Crown had pushed for a wage freeze but NNF negotiated 3% pay rises for the meat packers. Last month Danish Crown warned that if the employees approved the new agreement the company would have to fire 600 workers due to declining profits. The broken record keeps playing for businesses in Denmark as once again the monthly record for bankruptcies has been surpassed. According to analysis firm Experian, 656 companies went belly-up in March, 'besting' this past November's mark of 599. The number is the highest since the firm began keeping bankruptcy figures, reported financial daily Børsen. Experian's report did suggest there was light at the end of the tunnel, however, as the number of newly established companies increased by nearly 20% compared to March 2009 figures. According to figures from Statistics Denmark, a total of 7,374 businesses have gone under since the start of 2009. Denmark's manufacturing activity growth eased in March, Purchasing and Logistics Forum/DILF said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers index or PMI for manufacturing stood at 54.3 in March, down from 54.4 in the previous month. However, the PMI was expanded for the third successive month in March. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction. The index for manufacturing production climbed to 63 in March from 58.6 in the previous month, while the index for new orders dropped to 59 from 60.4. Employment slowed to 45.7 from 46.4. In the first quarter, the PMI for manufacturing stood at 55.1, up from 48.1 in the fourth quarter. FINLAND Helsinki's OMX went into the weekend on 7,371.59, gaining 0.29% on the session. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development on Wednesday warned Finland that the strong stimulus adopted by the Finnish government to counter the global downturn had undermined long-term fiscal sustainability of the country. The budget surplus of 5.2% of GDP recorded in 2007 is likely to swing to a similarly large deficit in 2011, the organization said. The OECD urged the government to draw up a clear fiscal consolidation plan, including measures to raise the retirement age, cut spending, and raise taxes on consumption and property to repair public finances. "The government should endeavor to broaden tax bases and raise beneficial taxes, while holding off from raising them on corporations or Labour," the organization said. OECD also urged the scandinavian country to adopt a more stringent unemployment benefits system as "generous benefits will be problematic when Labour demand starts to grow". Thursday, the Statistics Finland said in a report that the gross domestic product or GDP indicator dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in January, compared to the 0.8% growth in the previous month, revised from 0.2% rise estimated initially. Year-on-year, the GDP indicator decreased a working day adjusted 0.2% in January, after falling 3.5% in December, revised from 5.3% reported initially. Economists expected a flat reading for January. A year earlier, the indicator was down 9.4%. On an unadjusted basis, the output of the national economy fell 0.5% in January, compared to the 2.4% fall in December, revised from 4.2% decline estimated initially. The main reason for the revision was the benchmarking of the data to quarterly accounts, the statistical office said. Thursday, the Statistics Finland announced that the new motor vehicle registrations decreased 19.9% on an annual basis in March, compared to the 0.1% growth in the previous month. The number of new motor vehicle registrations totaled 15,010 in March, of which 10,187 were automobiles. The number of new passenger cars registrations slipped 15.2% to 9,108, while the share of new diesel-driven passenger cars was 42.1%. For the January to March period, the number of new motor vehicle registrations decreased 7.6% compared to the same period of the previous year. The vehicles registrations totaled 44,242. Meanwhile , the number of new passenger cars registrations declined 1.4% to 29,084. The most common passenger car makes first registered were Volkswagen, Toyota and Ford, the statistical office said. KONE, a major player in the elevator and escalator industry, announced the acquisition of the assets of Honolulu-based Akamai Elevator Company, in a move to further beef up its presence on the Hawaiian market. NORWAY The OBX in Oslo emerged from a busy week on 352.92, 1.29% to the positive. The EU Commission has approved US company Cisco's acquisition of the Norwegian firm Tandberg,a global leader in video communications. Cisco made a cash tender offer to purchase all the outstanding shares of Tandberg for 153.5 Norwegian Kroner per share for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $3.0 billion. Norwegian shipyards last year experienced their worst year, with orders worth only NOK 1.3 billion. This is a drop of nearly 90% since the top years of 2005 and 2006, Aftenposten reports. In the top years, the Norwegian yards received orders worth up to NOK 17-18 billion a year, the paper writes. At present, only a few of the 25 Norwegian yards have orders lasting into 2011. Most of the contracts at Norwegian yards have been for vessels to the offshore industry. But already now there is a surplus of offshofre vessels on the market. Around 10,000 are employed at Norwegian shipyards, and another 12-14.000 in the ships' equipment and outfitting industry. Norway's house prices climbed 10.7% year-on-year in March, the Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF) and the Association of Real Estate Undertakings (EFF) said Tuesday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 1% on an adjusted as well as unadjusted basis, following a flat trend in February. Further, house prices are 3.3% higher than in the peak month of August 2007. After adjusting for inflation, prices were down 5.5% from their peak. House prices have risen 6% thus far this year. Prices of single-family homes rose 11.1% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month in March. Prices of apartments rose 10.5% year-on-year and 0.5% on a monthly basis. Norway's purchasing managers index or PMI for manufacturing increased to 49.6 in March from 49.3 in February, a survey conducted by Logistics Association NIMA and Focus Bank showed on Tuesday. Economists expected a reading of 50.7. The PMI reading for February was revised from 49.4 reported initially. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction. The manufacturing output index dropped to 51.5 in March from 52 in the previous month, while employment index fell to 45.6 from 46.8. Stocks of intermediate goods rose to 48.6 in March from 44.7 in February. Meanwhile, new orders index stood at 47.8 in March, down from 48.6 in the previous month. This was the lowest value since October last year. Norway-based Internet retailer Komplett announced the completion of the sale of its unit Komplett BV to Dutch sector firm ParaDigit Holding for an undisclosed sum. SPAIN Madrid's IBEX bourse closed the day Friday on 11,394.20, a healthy 2.87% to the upside. Spain's Labour Ministry said on Tuesday that the number of registered unemployed increased 35,988 or 0.87% from the previous month to 4,166,613 in March. From the previous year, unemployment rose 561,211 or 15.5%. The Secretary General for Employment Maravillas Rojo said unemployment situation is expected to improve in the months ahead amid economic recovery and the easing intensity of adjustments in the Labour market. Spanish export prices climbed 1.7% year-on-year in February, accelerating from the 1.2% increase in the previous month, Madrid-based National Statistics Institute reported on Tuesday. Import prices registered an increase of 4.7% in February compared to a year ago, adding to the 3.4% increase in January. On a monthly basis, import prices gained 1.2% while export prices were up 0.7%. Markit Economics said on Wednesday that the Spain services purchasing managers' index stood at a seasonally adjusted 41.3 in March, up from the 47.1 score in February. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below suggests contraction. The reading signaled the fastest increase in activity at Spanish service providers since October 2007, and the first positive expansion since December 2007. Survey respondents indicated that the modest rise was mainly due to an increase in new business. Levels of new business received by Spanish service providers increased for the first time in 29 months in March, with the fastest rises recorded at transport & storage, and financial intermediation companies. Despite the rise in activity, employment levels in the services sector were reduced again, although the rate of job cuts eased to the weakest in two years. Input costs faced by service providers increased for the first time in three months in March, while output charges were slashed due to intense competition. Spanish brewer Damm invested Eur6.09m (USD8.2m) to raise its stake in home food group Ebro Puleva to 7.46% from 7.18%. The board of Spanish savings bank Caixanova voted in favour of launching merger negotiations with local peer Caixa Galicia. PORTUGAL In Lisbon the PSI General brought the week to a close on 2,832.32, up 2.08%. Wednesday, Portugal's National Institute of Statistics announced that the average annual industrial new orders dropped 0.4% in the three months to February, compared to the 6.8% fall in the previous three months period ended in January. A year earlier, new orders were down 20%. During the period, new orders from the external market decreased 5.1%, compared to the 10.7% fall in the previous month. However, new orders from the domestic market increased to 4.8% from a decline of 2.8% in January. Workers at Portugal's oil company Galp plan to halt the country's two refineries and other Galp installations between April 19 and 21 if their wage demands are not met, a union leader said on Thursday. The two refineries, in Sines and in Porto, have a total capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day. Ribeiro dos Santos, coordinator of the oil, gas and chemical industry workers' union Sinorquifa, said the company had been trying to assure that minimum production levels are maintained during the strike. "But we considered that unacceptable and will proceed with the full stoppage," he said. Still, he said the union was open to further salary negotiations with Galp. ITALY Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index advanced 283.86, or 1.2%, to 23,103.87, paring this week's loss to 0.4%. Italcementi gained 31 cents, or 3.5%, to 9.16 Euros, the biggest advance in two months. Ciments Francais SA, the international unit of Italcementi, closed a tender offer for private placement notes. Saipem climbed 53 cents, or 1.8%, to 29.49 Euros, its second gain this week. Europe's largest oilfield-services provider advanced with crude oil amid growing confidence that the economic recovery will stimulate fuel demand. Eni SpA (ENI IM) gained 19 cents, or 1.1%, to 17.54 Euros. Italian service providers recorded a considerable growth in activity in March as a marked increase in incoming business levels led to the fastest growth of service sector output since October 2007, a survey conducted by Markit Economics showed on Wednesday. The Markit/ADACI business activity index stood at 55.3 in March, up from 50.8 in February. Economists had expected the index to rise to 52. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. An economist at Markit said, "The Italian service sector rounded off the first quarter of 2010 with the steepest monthly expansion of output since October 2007, as another rise in new orders raised firms' activity levels. Italian service providers will also welcome the sharpest increase in outstanding orders in almost four years, as capacity pressures start to build." GREECE The Athex Composite in - you guessed it, Athens - ended the day and the week Friday on 1,991.22, up 3.4%. Greek GDP fell -0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the third quarter, according to second estimates released by Eurostat in Brussels on Wednesday. In the same period, Euro area and EU27 GDP rose 0.1%. The growth rate in Greece in the fourth quarter of 2009 when compared with the fourth quarter of 2008 was -2.5% of GDP (down from -2.6% in first estimates published on March 4). In the same space of time, Euro area GDP declined 2.2% (2.1% in the first estimates) and EU27 GDP declined 2.3%. As experts from the International Monetary Fund arrived in Athens to advise the government on how to curb a spiraling budget deficit, Prime Minister George Papandreou Thursday asked his ministers to focus on implementing austerity measures and pushing through much-needed reforms, noting that constant speculation about the course of Greece's economy was harmful. "We should abandon the easy pastime of focusing on rumors, which has dominated in recent months, and instead concentrate constantly and intensely on the problems of this country that need correcting, from institutional changes to a shift in mentality," Papandreou told a Cabinet meeting Thursday. After the session, several ministers condemned renewed speculation in recent days, by both the media and financial markets. In a clear dig at a foreign press report earlier this week that quoted an unnamed government official as saying that Greece was considering renegotiating a rescue package hammered out with Eurozone ministers last week, Minister of State Haris Paboukis called on journalists to name their sources to avoid such misunderstandings. Alternate Defense Minister Panos Beglitis advised all government officials to be careful with any statements they make as "anything said can be used at the expense of the collective effort being made for the country to overcome the crisis." In Brussels, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy struck a similar note. "It is particularly harmful to Greek taxpayers that all manner of rumors are being started," he said, rebuffing reports that Greece had tried to change the terms of a safety net brokered by Eurozone leaders to offer loans in a deal backed by the IMF. "The Greek government has in no way asked to revisit the agreement struck a fortnight ago," Van Rompuy said. In Athens meanwhile, IMF officials launched talks with Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou on the government's efforts to cut public spending and push through structural reforms. According to ministry sources, the officials, who will be here for two weeks, examined a draft law aimed at curbing widespread tax evasion. No new measures were proposed as the officials are here in an advisory capacity, ministry officials said. |
| The UK Market
Did it follow the Global trend ..... | Xstrata and Rio Tinto were among the gainers on Friday as mining stocks helped push the FTSE 100 to a sixth consecutive weekly gain, its longest winning streak in five years. For Rio and Xstrata, his 2010 profit forecast rose 33% and 12%, respectively, to incorporate rising iron ore and coal prices. This lifted BarCap's share price targets to £54 for Rio and £19 for Xstrata. Shares in Rio Tinto rose 1.1% to £39.49. Anglo American took on 2.5% to £29.79½ and ENRC was up 2.3% to £12.38. Kazakhmys, another BarCap recommendation, rose 2.2% to £15.91 even after its chief executive sold 1.3m shares. Xstrata ended 2.9% higher at £12.99 following news that it may enter the bid battle for Australia's Macarthur Coal, which has already rejected all-share offers worth up to $3.5bn. An investment bank representing Xstrata had approached one of its major shareholders for a "preliminary and highly conceptual" chat, Macarthur said. Xstrata recently raised about $3.4bn from disposals and already operates a coal mine that is close to Macarthur's main pit. Speculation about a Greek bail-out helped lift the FTSE 100 by 1%, or 58.28 points, to 5,770.98. For the week the index showed a 0.5% gain. Fresnillo was Friday's top blue-chip performer, up 3.5% to 884p, as Dollar weakness lifted precious metals prices. Randgold Resources took on 1.3% to £54.60 and Aquarius Platinum rose 4% to 449½p. Russian gold miner Petropavlovsk gained 3.3% to £13.48 as its chairman Peter Hambro talked up the benefits of this week's non-proliferation agreement between the US and Russia. Petropavlovsk trades at around a 30% discount to its peer group, which investors say partly reflects the risks of operating in Russia. Elsewhere among the gainers, Compass rose 3.1% to 540p. This reflected hopes that it could take a contract with the US Marine Corps from closest rival Sodexo, after Congressional auditors were brought in to investigate the quality and value offered by Sodexo, which has bid $1.4bn a year to renew the contract. Schroders' non-voting shares fell 1.3% to £11.53 after Nomura said the stock looked fully valued and advised a switch into Man Group, 0.4% higher at 264p. EnQuest, the North Sea oil group that was spun out of Petrofac and Lundin Petroleum, bounced 6.3% to 106¼p to lead the mid-cap risers after the shares started unconditional trading in Stockholm. An upgrade to "buy" from RBS lifted Premier Oil by 3.7% to £13.22. Analyst Phil Corbett was upbeat on Premier's exploration programme and said the recent gains for the oil price made the stock's discount against peers "even more untenable". Cable & Wireless Communications, C&W's recently demerged international arm, rose 3.7% to 61¼p, after Citigroup started coverage with "buy" advice. It highlighted a 9% dividend yield and argued that the Monaco and Macao operations, which account for about a third of the business, could be sold in the next few years. Foundry supplier Cookson rose 2.5% to 600½p after Goldman Sachs repeated a "conviction buy" rating and 920p target price. "We believe the market currently underestimates the recovery in its end markets, and Cookson's consequent earnings growth potential over the next two years," it said. Specialist staffing group Healthcare Locums surged 25.6% to 250p after saying it had received a bid approach. The approach, which dealers said was likely to have come from private equity, follows a profit warning last month from Healthcare that sent the stock as much as 30% lower. On Thursday, Equinox Partners, a New York hedge fund, said it had raised its stake in the group from 11% to 16.7%. Coal miner GCM Resources, habitually the subject of bid gossip, rose 20.8% to 290p. Hopes that GCM will secure a licence to mine in Bangladesh have pushed the stock higher by 83% so far this month. Polo Resources, GCM's 29.8% shareholder, climbed 8.9% to 5¾p. Other coal miners found support on the back of the escalating bid war for Australia's Macarthur Coal with Western Coal up 5.5% to 395½p. Luminar rose 8.9% to 49p on thin volume. Bid hopes have supported the nightclub owner after it entered talks with HMV over a possible joint venture earlier this year. GTL Resources, which is developing an ethanol plant in Illinois, gained 17.2% to 85p after saying it would beat full-year expectations following a "substantially" stronger-than-expected second half. Offshore Hydrocarbon Mapping, which more than doubled on Thursday after a Norwegian investor provided funding, ran back 6.5% to 10¾p. |
| Asia Pacific Regional Markets
Did they set the tone or follow the lead ..... | JAPAN Japan's Nikkei average rose 0.3% on Friday, with gains in retailers offsetting profit-taking in the wake of the index's recent rally to 18-month highs. Retailers were among the leading sub-index gainers, with casual clothing chain Fast Retailing surging after reporting 43% growth in its first-half operating profit, helped by strong sales at its Uniqlo budget fashion chain. The Nikkei hit an 18-month peak earlier this week but has since pulled back, with investors booking profits as the Yen regained some ground after a recent slide, and due to concerns the rally in equities may have gone too far, too fast. But market players said it was too early to conclude whether the Nikkei has shifted toward a downtrend, with support expected near 10,900, roughly where its 25-day moving average now lies. Hopes for possible buying by two mutual funds to be launched by Nomura Asset Management on April 16 that will invest in so-called smart grid and cloud-computing related equities around the world, may also lend the market support in the near-term, Nakajima said. The benchmark Nikkei .N225 rose 36.14 points to 11,204.34, recouping some ground after sliding 1.1% on Thursday for its biggest one-day percentage fall in about six weeks. The broader Topix index rose 0.4% to 989.42. Some 2.2 billion shares were traded on the Tokyo exchange's first section, off a one-month high of about 2.4 billion shares reached on Wednesday. Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by more than 2 to 1. The Nikkei hit an 18-month intraday high of 11,408.17 on Monday, buoyed by market expectations for a sharp improvement in corporate earnings and signs of a strengthening economic recovery in the United States. But MACD, a technical indicator, has since turned cautious, with charts showing the MACD line edging down towards the signal line and getting closer to flashing a sell signal. Japan's largest retailer Seven & I Holdings climbed 6.1% to 2,456 Yen after saying it would buy back up to 50 billion Yen ($535.6 million) of its stock, equivalent to 2.21% of its shares outstanding and then cancel them. Bic Camera Inc jumped 6.7% to 34,450 Yen after the consumer electronics retailer raised its full-year operating profit forecast by 20%, buoyed by brisk sales of high margin items like flat-screen TVs thanks to government incentive programmes designed to encourage purchases of energy efficient models. Canon Inc fell 2.8% to 4,250 Yen after Goldman Sachs downgraded the electronics maker to "neutral" from "buy," though it raised its price target to 4,500 Yen from 4,200 to reflect upward revisions to its estimates for the business year ending in December 2010. SOUTH KOREA Decliners outnumbered advancers 474 to 318, with 91 issues ending flat. Trading volume stood at 370.9 million shares worth 4.77 trillion Won, compared with 342 million shares worth 4.5 trillion Won in the previous session. The KOSPI 200 June futures index ended down 1.55 points at 227.00, and the KOSPI 200 spot index declined 1.46 points at 226.81. The junior Kosdaq market ended 0.22% lower to close at 512.15. The benchmark KOSPI Index bucked the regional trend and ended in negative territory with a minor loss of 9.31 points, or 0.54%, at 1,724, as traders availed the last trading day of the week to lock in gains from the recent rally and move to the sidelines ahead of the official start of the earnings season in the U.S, early next week. Profit taking was witnessed in technology stocks, banks and resource stocks which led the rally in the past few trading sessions. HONG KONG Hong Kong stocks rose 1.56% on Friday, nearing a three-month high as strong earnings from ZTE Corp and Tsingtao Brewery and hopes of appreciation in the RMB lifted Chinese stocks. The benchmark Hang Seng Index ended up 341.46 points at 22,208.50, to cross the 22,000-mark that investors considered a strong resistance. The China Enterprises Index of top locally listed mainland Chinese stocks closed up 1.49% at 13,046.72. Market turnover rose to HK$76.17 billion ($9.82 billion) from Thursday's HK$70.15 billion. The index has risen 3.1% in three days of trade. The trading week was shortened due to the Easter and Tomb Sweeping holidays. Market heavyweight HSBC rose over 3%, adding about 94 points to the overall gain on the Hang Seng. CHINA China's stocks rose the most in a week, led by phone and media companies, on an improved earnings outlook and the prospect RMB gains will attract more investment. Hebei Chengde Lolo Co. climbed to a record after the beverage maker said first-quarter profit more than doubled. Phone equipment makers jumped on a report that the government will boost investment in 3G mobile-phone services and ZTE Corp. said profit gained. Huayi Brothers Media Corp. led a rally among media stocks after the government said it will give financial support to cultural companies. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 26.64, or 0.9%, to 3,145.35 at the close. The measure dropped 0.4% this week on concern the government will take more measures to rein in property prices. The CSI 300 Index, which will be the basis for index-futures trading next week, gained 1% to 3,379.17. The Shanghai index is down 4% this year, the most among the world's 10 biggest stock markets, on concern slower credit growth will slow the expansion at the world's third- largest economy. Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies Co. jumped 7.5% to 31.45 RMB, the biggest gain in three months. Jiangsu Hengtong Photoelectric Stock Co., a manufacturer of optical fiber and cables, advanced 6.5% to 36.22 RMB, while Jiangsu Yongding Co., a cable maker, surged 8.4% to 14.42 RMB. The telecom index in the CSI 300 rose 1.9% for the second-biggest gain among the 10 industry groups. China will boost its investment in 3G mobile-phone services to 400 billion RMB ($58.6 billion) by 2011, the Shanghai Securities News reported Friday, citing a statement jointly released by eight ministries, including the Ministry of Information Technology. China will also build 400,000 telecommunications stations and expects 150 million 3G mobile- phone users next year, the newspaper said. ZTE, China's second-biggest phone-equipment maker, added 2.9% to 42.30 RMB. The company said full-year profit rose 52% to 2.34 billion RMB last year as it won more orders to build networks in the world's largest communications market. Developers rose for the first time in four days, paring weekly losses amid concern about a property tax and further monetary policy tightening. Gemdale Corp. gained 1% to 13.61 RMB, trimming a weekly loss of 6.3%. It's uncertain whether a property tax in China can help curb high housing prices and its effect may be limited, Liu Shangxi, deputy director of Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the finance ministry, said in a live webcast on the Xinhua News Agency. The central bank may raise benchmark interest rates this month to curb property price gains and inflation which may be pushed up by the drought in southern China, the 21st Century Business Herald said, citing government economist Zhu Baoliang. A stronger RMB may help contain inflation and attract investment flows. China equity funds drew $190 million during the week ended April 7, the most since late January, EPFR Global said. The New York Times reported the Chinese government is "very close" to announcing it will change its currency policy in the "coming days." Chengde Lolo jumped 7.4% to 37.46 RMB, the highest since its listing in 1997. First-quarter probably rose 176% from a year earlier to about 110 million RMB on increased sales, said the company in a statement. Tsingtao Brewery Co., the Chinese beer company founded by German settlers more than a century ago, added 1.8% to 35.08 RMB after saying 2009 profit rose 79% from a year earlier to 1.25 billion RMB on increased demand and deeper cost cuts. Huayi Brothers jumped 8.7% to 68 RMB, the highest in four months. Guangdong Alpha Animation and Culture Co. rose 2.5% to 51.23 RMB. Anhui Xinhua Media Co. added 4.3% to 17.09 RMB. The government will encourage culture and media companies to sell shares and bonds to expand, according to a People's Bank of China statement issued Thursday. The following companies were among the most active in China's markets. Stock symbols are in brackets after companies' names. China Sinoma International Engineering rose 6% to record 39.44 RMB after saying first-quarter net income may gain more than 130% from 107 million RMB a year earlier. Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar Industry gained 2.7% to 16.35 RMB, the highest since March 2008. Citic Securities Co. rated the stock "outperform" in initial coverage, saying the company's real estate business and investment gains from a commercial property unit will add to revenue. TAIWAN Taiwan's share prices closed higher Friday with the weighted index, the market's key barometer, moving up 34.43 points, or 0.42%, to close at 8,092.03. The local bourse opened at 8,073.52 and fluctuated between a low of 8,039.41 and a high of 8,094.35 during the day's trading. Market turnover totaled NT$107.41 billion (US$3.4 billion). Six of the eight major stock categories gained ground, with banking and financial stocks gaining the most at 0.75%. Paper and pulp issues rose 0.66%, textile shares moved up 0.62%, and machinery and electronics issues advanced 0.43%. Construction shares rose 0.28% and plastics and chemicals shares edged up 0.2%. Two major stock categories lost ground, with cement issues dropping 0.64% and foodstuff issues falling 0.44%. Losers outnumbered gainers 1,553 to 1,481 with 339 remaining unchanged. Foreign investors and Chinese QDIIs were net buyers of NT$4.54 billion in shares. Top contract chipmaker TSMC wrapped up the first quarter with strong March sales, showing another evidence that major technology exporters in Asia are benefiting from a sustained pickup in demand globally. TSMC and No.2 chip foundry UMC have said they would boost capital spending significantly this year to tap demand for new computers, cellphones and flat-screen TVs that require more powerful microchips. But analysts say a wider customer base and early adoption of more advanced technology would help TSMC yield higher profit margins than UMC and other smaller rivals in the coming months. Both TSMC and UMC are set to report first-quarter earnings and give guidance for the second quarter in late April. The two Taiwan companies supply chips to fabless chip companies and other major chipmakers in the United States and Europe. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, which counts Texas Instruments and Nvidia among major clients, had unconsolidated sales of T$30.82 billion ($975 million) last month, the company said. That was more than doubled from a year ago and up 5.6% from February, even though a strong earthquake in Taiwan caused minor losses in early March. A day earlier, UMC also reported a more than doubling in March sales on Thursday. THE PHILIPPINES Local share prices and the Peso succumbed to a minor correction on Thursday, as investors booked their gains ahead of the long weekend. At the Philippine Stock Exchange, the 30-company composite index lost 0.44%, or 14.25 points to 3,256.12, while the broader all-shares index went down by 0.27%, or 5.56 points to 2,019.58. Decliners beat advancers 54 to 37 while 79 issues were unchanged. A total of 979 million stocks worth P5.15 billion changed hands. Markets were closed Friday in observance of Araw ng Kagitingan (Day of Valour). The PSEi mimicked the overnight slide on Wall Street, which broke a two-month run of gains following concerns that US consumer spending will remain weak. Beginning next week, Calaycay expects the market to go sideways as the upcoming May presidential election will begin to have more influence on stocks movement. The peso also gave way to a minor correction Thursday after seven days of gains against the Dollar as investors mused on whether the global economic recovery is strong enough to extend the rally in emerging markets, currency traders said. After posting a strong close of 44.80 at the Philippine Dealing System on Wednesday, the local currency finished at 44.95 to the Dollar, or 15 centavos weaker on Thursday. It opened at 44.87 and traded to a high of 45 and a low of 44.84. Total trading volume reached $845.05 million from Wednesday's $997.92 million. Traders said they expect the peso to move sideways Monday, as the general trend remained quite firm. SINGAPORE Singapore shares ended the week slightly higher on the back of strong showing from Wall Street and positive outlook on Greece's debt woes. The benchmark Straits Times Index was up 0.3% at closing bell, adding 8.78 points to 2,971.97. Some 2.66 billion shares exchanged hands at a value of S$1.44 billion, with gainers outnumbering losers 442 to 117. Analysts said investors are expected to remain focused on small capitalisation stocks. Among commodity stocks, Golden Agri Resources was up 1.7% at S$0.610, Noble Group rose 0.9% to S$3.21, Olam International edged up 1.1% to S$2.76, while Wilmar International ended flat at S$6.89. Rig builder shares were also largely positive after Thursday's decline, with Sembcorp Marine 0.2% higher at S$4.25, and Keppel gaining 0.6% at S$9.40. Singapore shipping firm Neptune Orient Lines jumped 1.9% to close at S$2.16. Bank shares were flat, with UOB and OCBC ending at S$19.84 and S$8.93 respectively. MALAYSIA Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended higher Friday on technical rebound as strong gains on key heavyweights, led by MISC, pulled the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) up 0.08%, dealers said. The good number for February's industrial production index (IPI) also helped spur investor interest locally, they said. In rangebound trade, the benchmark FBM KLCI rose 1.05 points to close at 1,333.89. The key index hovered around 1,332.98 to 1,338.63 Friday. It had opened 0.84 of a point higher at 1,333.77. "Market activity was relatively quiet as most investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the weekend," one of the dealers said, adding that most gains were led by the industrial-related stocks while banking and plantation counters succumbed to profit taking activities. MISC surged 32 sen or 3.9% to RM8.49 on news that it would list its unit -- Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Sdn Bhd -- on the exchange this year. The IPI for February was up 4.9% year-on-year on the back of higher manufacturing and electricity indices. At close, the Finance Index, however slipped 20.28 points to 12,006.81 and the Plantation Index declined 4.68 points to 6,493.18, but the Industrial Index gained 19.64 points to 2,741.64. The FBM Emas Index earned 19.89 points to 9,086.59, the FBM70 advanced 34.24 points to 9,127.65 and the FBM Ace Index advanced 40.88 points to 4,295.13. Gainers outpaced losers by 470 to 266 while 267 counters were unchanged, 354 untraded and 32 others suspended. Total trading volume stood at 1.254 billion shares worth RM1.582 billion, down slightly from Thursday's closing of 1.278 billion shares worth RM1.737 billion. Active counter Talam edged up one sen to 13 sen while Scomi Group eased four sen to 50 sen and SAAG Consolidated fell half a sen to 12 sen. Time dotCom and Kencana Petroleum rose two sen each to close at 52 sen and RM1.61, respectively. Leading the FBM KLCI index, Sime Darby advanced four sen to RM8.78, Maxis Bhd earned three sen to RM5.28 and RHB Capital added nine sen to RM5.98. Total volume on the Main Market fell slightly to 1.081 billion shares worth RM1.535 billion compared with 1.089 billion shares worth RM1.680 billion on Thursday. The ACE Market volume, however, increased to 58.896 million shares worth RM9.025 million versus 39.232 million shares worth RM6.857 million Thursday. Warrants also improved to 84.959 million units worth RM20.734 million from 72.159 million units worth RM16.343 million previously. Consumer products accounted for 31.881 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 251.694 million, construction 52.672 million, trade and services 362.871 million, technology 33.453 million, infrastructure 59.568 million, finance 98.587 million, hotels 7.586 million, properties 158.132 million, plantations 22.638 million, mining 34,000, REITs 1.322 million and closed/fund 64,800. INDONESIA Indonesian shares ended lower on Friday amid continued profit-taking but gains in mining stocks, sparked by a higher oil price and speculation over a possible RMB appreciation, helped to cap the decline, analysts said. The Jakarta Composite Index lost 5.82 points, or 0.2%, to close at 2,845.01, falling for a second day. The benchmark index gained 0.5% this week, its sixth weekly advance. Some 5.05 billion shares worth Rp 4.93 trillion ($547 million) changed hands. Gainers led decliners 96 to 65. Overseas investors have bought $481 million more of local stocks than they have sold this year, helping drive the JCI to an all-time high earlier this week. Meanwhile, the Rupiah climbed to a 30-month high and government bonds rose this week on speculation that a brightening outlook for the economy will prompt global funds to add to their holdings of the nation's assets. The Rupiah traded at 9,025 against the Dollar on Friday, compared with 9,063 on Thursday. On stock market, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara lost 2.5% to Rp 3,950 and oil and gas services firm PT Elnusa dropped 3.5% to Rp 550. Banking stocks also fell. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia and PT Bank Central Asia shed 1.8% each, to Rp 8,150 and Rp 5,550, respectively. State property firm PT Wijaya Karya lost 2.5% to Rp 390 while PT Indosat dropped 3.3% to Rp 5,900. Among mining stocks, PT Timah climbed 9.8% to close at Rp 2,525 and PT Indika Energy rose 8.7% to close at Rp 3,125. The outlook for Indonesia's banking stocks remains positive and the central bank's warning of a bubble in the nation's stock market should not deter investors, Goldman Sachs say. Banking shares are trading at lower valuations when compared with the region and the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, Goldman Sachs analyst Vincent Chang wrote in a report on Friday. The banks also offer "strong earnings potential," with loan growth for the industry poised to reach 20% this year as the economy improves and risk appetite increases. "All of these factors lead us to believe earnings delivery risk should be low," Chang said. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia and PT Bank Mandiri, Goldman Sachs's top picks, fell at least 3.8% Thursday after Perry Warjiyo, the head of the central bank's economic research and monetary policy unit, said Indonesian stocks are in a bubble and officials are prepared to put controls on capital inflows if needed. The JCI's 13% rally this year has driven up estimated earnings to 14.9 times, compared with 14.4 times for banks. Indonesia's valuations overtook China's on March 12 for the first time in five months, before retreating. Hedge fund manager James Chanos said in an interview on "The Charlie Rose Show" this week that China is "on a treadmill to hell," with the property bubble poised to burst as early as this year. Overseas investors turned net buyers of Indonesian stocks last month, purchasing a net Rp 4.9 trillion ($541 million) of shares after selling Rp 1.6 trillion in the first two months this year, according to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Mandiri, the country's largest bank by assets, rose to a record on March 30 after reporting better-than-expected 2009 earnings. The central bank aims to accelerate banks' lending growth to between 17% and 20% this year to help Southeast Asia's largest economy expand. Bank Indonesia on March 8 raised its 2010 economic growth forecast to 5.6% from 5.2%, citing higher domestic consumer demand. THAILAND Thai stocks ended 0.7% higher on Friday, recouping losses after prominent emerging market fund manager Mark Mobius recommended the market. Templeton Asset Management's Mobius told Reuters he was bullish on Thailand and that political unrest in the country had not changed his view. He favoured Thailand over Indonesia and Singapore and was underweight on Malaysia and Philippines. "We are not so concerned about the political situation in Thailand," Mobius said in a telephone interview. "Because as you know, we have been investing in Thailand for almost 15 years or more. And we think that this kind of change in the Thai political environment has happened many times before." Red-shirted supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006, have been protesting in Bangkok for a month to force early elections. The government imposed a state of emergency on Wednesday. The Thai index turned round after Mobius's comments as investors bought bank and energy stocks, sectors Mobius recommended. Krung Thai Bank rose 4.5% and PTT 0.75%. However, foreign investors were net sellers of 1.76 billion baht ($54.5 million) of stock, their second day of selling after a buying streak from Feb. 22. Their purchases of Thai stocks since that date have now fallen modestly to $1.7 billion. INDIA Indian stocks advanced, with the benchmark stock index completing its ninth week of gains, as investors predicted company earnings will increase. Reliance Industries, the nation's biggest company by market value, rose. Housing Development Finance Corp., a mortgage lender, gained the most in more than six months. Foreign funds have been net buyers since Feb. 26. Analysts raised earnings per share estimates for the largest 30 companies by 30% over the past four weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, gained 218.74, or 1.2%, to 17,933.14. The gauge advanced 1.4% this week, its longest stretch of weekly gains since June. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange rose 1.1% to 5,361.75. The BSE 200 Index increased 1% to 2,252.61. Reliance Industries, owner of the world's largest refining complex, advanced 1.6% to 1,124.7 Rupees. The company discovered natural gas in four additional areas at its largest field that may boost domestic fuel supplies, two people familiar with the matter said. Manoj Warrier, a spokesman for Reliance, declined to comment. Housing Development climbed 4.3% to 2,843.05 Rupees, the most since Sept. 22. Jaiprakash Associates Ltd., a builder of dams, roads and bridges, gained 2.4% to 151.85 Rupees, its biggest one-day advance in a week. Expansion in Asia's third-biggest economy after Japan and China is "consolidating," central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said March 22. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh aims to boost growth to 10%, a pace needed to pull 828 million people living on less than $2 a day out of poverty. India's manufacturing expanded for a 12th straight month in March, according to the Purchasing Managers' Index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics on April 1. A reading above 50 indicates a gain in factory production. Most Indian companies are due to report quarterly earnings in the next three weeks. Bharat Heavy Electricals, India's biggest power- equipment maker, advanced 2.9% to 2,563.7 Rupees, its highest level since December 2007. Hero Honda Motors Ltd., the largest motorcycle maker, increased 2% to a record 2,056.95 Rupees. Tata Motors, India's biggest truckmaker and owner of Jaguar Land Rover Ltd., soared 4.1% to 809.65 Rupees, its biggest advance in five weeks. Vehicle sales rose 26% in the year through March, according to data released Friday by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers in New Delhi. India's domestic savings rates as a percentage of gross domestic product, at 32.5%, has mostly risen in near tandem with emerging markets for a decade, compared with declines in developed nations. Overseas investors bought a net 4.18 billion Rupees ($94 million) of Indian stocks on April 7, taking purchases this year to 241.1 billion Rupees, according to the nation's market regulator. The Rupee is poised for its biggest weekly gain in three months after global funds bought $444 million more Indian equities than they sold in the first three days of this week. Foreign funds have been net buyers for 24 straight trading days, the longest streak of inflows since August 2005, since Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee pledged to trim the fiscal deficit from a 16-year high in the government's Feb. 26 budget. Inflows from overseas into India's stock market reached a record 834.2 billion Rupees in 2009, beating the high set two years earlier in local currency terms, as the biggest rally in 18 years lured foreign funds. They sold a record 529.9 billion Rupees of shares in 2008, triggering a record annual decline. Elecon Engineering rose 2.9% to 81.45 Rupees. The material handling equipment maker has won orders worth 1.38 billion Rupees, it said in an e-mailed statement. Shree Ganesh Jewellery House, a jewelry maker and retailer, sank 37% to 164.55 Rupees from the price it sold stock to the public in its first share sale. The company raised 3.73 billion Rupees selling 14.3 million shares at 260 Rupees apiece, according to data published by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Spanco soared 4.7% to 91.25 Rupees. The telecommunications solutions provider won a project worth 2.84 billion Rupees from the Punjab State Electricity Board, it said in a statement to the Bombay Stock Exchange. AUSTRALIA At the close of a shortened trading week, the Australian share market has closed slightly higher supported by gains in mining and energy stocks following heated takeover activity in the coal sector. The S&P/ASX 200 Index finished 10 points higher at 4,948, up 40 points on the week, while on the futures market, the SPI200's up 28. The Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association performance of construction index fell 4.1 points to a read of 48.7 in March. The drop places the index below the 50 mark separating expansion from contraction. Biopharmaceutical company CSL Ltd has maintained its guidance for net profit of between $970 million and $1.07 billion for the year. In its half-year report released Friday, the company says it is well positioned for the expected international growth for plasma-derived therapies with a broad portfolio underpinned by new product and market development activities. Chairman Elizabeth Alexander says subject to a number of key variables and using financial year 2008/2009 exchange rates, CSL continues to forecast a net profit of between $1.16 and $1.26 billion, a 14 to 24% growth in underlying operational profit, and the company anticipates a result in the upper end of this range. CSL shares closed 0.22% lower at $36. A hot battle is playing out for control of Aussie coal miner Macarthur Coal with the miner this afternoon rejecting a takeover bid by New Hope Corporation. The Macarthur board has unanimously decided that the offer of 2.7 New Hope shares for every one Macarthur share does not represent an adequate premium for control of the company. New Hope's offer values the company at $3.71 billion and trumps a $3.56 billion revised offer made by US coal giant Peabody Energy. There are also rumours circulating that Swiss mining giant Xstrata Coal is poised to make an offer for Macarthur as well. At this stage Monday's meeting to vote on a proposal to acquire fellow miner Gloucester Coal Ltd and Noble Group's interest in the Middlemount joint venture is to go ahead. Shares in Macarthur Coal closed 8.29% stronger at $15.55. Also making news: Kerry Stokes move to merge the Seven Network and mining and industrial equipment business WesTrac has received support from Mackenzie Cundill, who are reportedly to vote in favour of the deal at an investor meeting on April 20. And financial services company ThinkSmart has expanded its presence in Italy after signing a two year distribution agreement with Italian computer retailer Computer Discount. In the best and worst performers: The best performing sector at close was the Energy index, up 160 points at 16,319. The worst performing sector was the Consumer Staples index; down 15 points to 7,871. In the S&P/ ASX200 Macarthur Coal was the best performing Friday after a big week of takeover interest in the company, shares rallied - price as mentioned before. Meanwhile shares in Whitehaven Coal benefitted from the interest in Macarthur closing higher, with shares in Emeco Holdings also closing stronger Friday. The worst performing stock was Macmahon Holdings, shares fell 3.53% to $0.82. The company Friday denied a takeover from Leighton Holdings but said it is likely to be awarded a $90 million contract with the government. Shares in Panoramic Resources and Pacific Brands also closed weaker Friday. And finally, the Aussie Dollar is trading at 92.86 US cents - and is up just under a cent on the week. In commodities, gold is trading at $1,155.10 U.S an ounce and is up $29.60 on the week, and light crude is $0.55 higher at $85.94 U.S cents a barrel. NEW ZEALAND The New Zealand sharemarket ended with little changed Friday but selected stocks continued to advance and brokers noted lines of stock trading in Michael Hill and Pyne Gould Corp. Pike River Coal advanced 7c to 116 to a five-month high and answered an NZX Regulation price query by saying it was complying with disclosure rules. Air NZ advanced 3c to 145 to a two-year high and Infratil continued a run higher in the wake of its purchase of Shell downstream assets, rising 1c to 177. The benchmark NZX-50 index closed up 2.482 points, or 0.075%, at 3310.247. Turnover was worth $77.47 million. There were 39 rises and 33 falls among the 112 stocks traded. Also 8 million Pyne Gould Corp shares traded at 48c, and the shares closed up 1c at 48. Telecom eased a cent to 221. Mr Lee said investors were focused on what role Telecom would have in government ultrafast broadbank plans, rather than the issues in the media this week. Pike River Coal was rising in sympathy with corporate activity in the coal sector in Australia, while Air NZ had been well bid after a broker upgrade earlier this week. It said Friday it would be code sharing with Continental Airlines. NZ Windfarms rose 2c to 25 in an ongoing positive reaction to the resolution of issues with its turbine supplier. Contact Energy eased 2c to 641 and Fletcher Building rose 1c to 838. Blis Technologies rose 0.7c to 10.5 and Scott Technology rose 2c to 128. Sealegs fell 1c to 18 and Smartpay fell 0.1c to 3.9. Hellaby fell 4c to 162. SkyCity fell 2c to 326 and Ebos fell 10c to 645. |
| Global Commodities
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' ..... | Gold prices hit their highest levels for 2010 on Friday as uncertainty in currency markets and rising concerns about Greece's debt crisis encouraged investors to seek less risky assets. Spot bullion in London rose to an intraday high of $1,165.15 an ounce, up 4% on the week and its highest level in four months. Gold prices are closing in on their record high of $1,226.10 an ounce set in December. Other precious metals also rallied. Spot silver prices rose to $18.40 an ounce, their highest level in three months and up 3% on the week. Platinum and palladium posted strong gains this week on the back of surging demand from carmakers for catalytic converters used to reduce exhaust emissions. Palladium closed the week at $510 an ounce, up 4.1% and near a two-year peak of $511.50 an ounce set on Wednesday. Platinum ended at $1,7120 an ounce, up 3.1% on the week. Elsewhere in commodities markets, base metals at the London Metal Exchange posted strong gains with aluminium hitting an 18-month high. The price of aluminium for delivery in three months rose to an intraday high of $2,413 a tonne, the highest level since October 2008, up 2.5% on the week. Traders said that investor flows were boosting the light metal price in spite of lacklustre supply and demand fundamentals. Copper prices rose briefly above $8,000 a tonne early in the week, but closed at $7,930 a tonne, up 0.6% on the week. |
| Global Currencies
In for a Penny, in for a Pound ..... | 
The Polish Zloty suffered on Friday after the country's central bank intervened for the first time since the 1990s to stem the currency's rapid rise. The National Bank of Poland said it had sold the Zloty and bought "a certain amount" of foreign currency. The Zloty dropped 1% to 3.8795 against the Euro after the announcement, its sharpest fall since late February. The action came as the central bank sought to rein in the appreciation of the zloty, which rose 6% against the Euro in the first three months of this year, its strongest quarterly rise in six years. The Zloty hit a 16-month high of 3.8234 against the Euro earlier this week. Investors have been attracted by the fact that Poland is the only European Union nation to have avoided a recession during the financial crisis. Analysts said the action marked a paradigm shift in the National Bank's behaviour. Meanwhile, the Euro came under pressure, dropping close to a 10-month low against the Dollar as concerns heightened over the fiscal problems in heavily indebted Greece. The Euro fell to a low of $1.3278 against the Dollar on Thursday. The Euro did recover some ground, however, to end the week up 0.9% at $1.3511. The Euro also dropped 1.4% to £0.8754 against the Pound over the week. Meanwhile, the Pound rose 0.9% to $1.5341 against the Dollar on the week as political uncertainty in the UK eased as the Conservative Party consolidated its lead in opinion polls ahead of the UK general election next month. The Pound fell 0.4% to Y143.20 against the Yen, however, as speculation that China was set to announce an imminent revaluation of the renminbi boosted the Japanese currency. The Yen benefited as Japan is one of the top exporters to China. Over the week, the Yen rose 1.3% to Y93.33 against the Dollar and climbed 1.8% to Y125.42 against the Euro. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar rose 1.3% to $0.9315 against the US Dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%. Speculation that the Bank of Canada would follow the RBA's lead boosted the Canadian Dollar, propelling it through parity against the US Dollar for the first time since July 2008. The loonie hit a high of C$0.9974 on Wednesday, before easing to stand up 0.6% at C$1.0055 over the week. South Africa's Rand gained the second most against the Dollar of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg after the World Bank approved a $3.75 billion loan for national power utility, Eskom Holdings Ltd., and foreign currency reserves rose 6.5%. Reserves rose to $42 billion last month, the central bank said on its Web site Friday. The Rand gained 0.7% to 7.2273 versus the Dollar as of 9:17 a.m. Johannesburg time compared with 7.2738 late Thursday. That is the second-biggest gain Friday against the Dollar after the South Korean Won. And as always, rounding out currencies here in China; the US Dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese RMB as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8236 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8243.
The government plans to sell about CNY 200 billion of bonds on behalf of local governments this quarter. The move higher in the RMB was expected by most dealers as simmering tensions between the US and China have thawed a little bit in the run-up to next week's meeting in Washington, D.C. between leadership from the two countries. |
| China
Key news eminating from China this week ..... |
 China may post its first trade deficit in six years after a surge in imports of commodities and consumer goods, weakening US arguments that the nation is keeping its currency undervalued to gain an advantage. Imports probably exceeded exports by $390 million in March after a $7.6 billion trade surplus the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists. The customs bureau is scheduled to release the figures tomorrow. Part of the shift into deficit is likely due to rising commodity prices, economists said. US Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner met in Beijing Thursday with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan amid rising pressure from American lawmakers for action to rein in a US trade gap with China that was $227 billion last year. Premier Wen Jiabao's government has said a stable RMB and its 4 trillion RMB ($586 billion) fiscal stimulus has contributed to the global recovery. China has kept the RMB pegged around 6.83 per Dollar since July 2008, seeking to aid exporters during the deepest contraction in trade since World War II. Exports still tumbled for 13 straight months, shrinking the nation's trade surplus by 34% last year to $196 billion. The damage has left policy makers reluctant to rush to remove emergency measures even as growth accelerates and a record credit boom threatens to spark a property bubble. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in a March 23 interview that officials want to ensure the world isn't in a "W-shaped recovery," with a slowdown coming after the current rebound. Geithner's visit Thursday, and his delay last week of the US Treasury's decision on whether to label China a currency manipulator in a biannual report, have boosted speculation policy makers will end the Dollar peg. China may announce a revision of its currency policy within days with a small, one-time jump in the RMB, which would then be allowed to trade in a greater range against the Dollar, the New York Times reported Thursday, citing unidentified people with knowledge of an emerging consensus on the issue. Now here is my view: if the US think that China is going to revalue the RMB, I would like to tell them that there is more hope of getting every Pavillion at the Expo finished on time and to a satisfactory standard - and from what I hear, there is absolutely no hope of that! *********************************** China Life Insurance Co, the country's largest insurer, will increase the proportion of bonds in its overall investment basket and actively seek strategic equity investment opportunities this year, the company's top management said on Thursday. "With the market expectations strengthening of an interest rate hike, interest in bonds is likely to pick up later this year. So we will purchase more high-grade bonds," China Life Vice-President Liu Jiade told reporters at a news conference following the release of its 2009 results. He added there are already signs of rising yields on short-term debt. The insurer had about half of its investment portfolio in bonds at the end of 2009, down from 61% at the end of 2008. And it lifted stocks to 15.3% of its portfolio as of Dec 31, up from 8% a year earlier, according to its statement to the Hong Kong bourse. Such a change resulted in a 95.6% increase in China Life's investment return last year, thanks to the country's bullish stock market last year. However, Liu said A shares this year face relatively higher risks and volatility as the government considers an exit from stimulus policies while the economic recovery continues. "While sticking to our long-term, value-based stock investment strategy, we will also watch for any opportunities in the market, and be more flexible and active," Liu said. China Life Chairman Yang Chao added that the insurer will promote the "strategic cooperation with the Agricultural Bank of China and China Development Bank, but this still depends on their listing process and relevant policies". The insurer owns a minority stake in Guangdong Development Bank, and wants to buy a controlling stake in another bank, Yang said earlier. China Life's profit in 2009 rose 71.8%, boosted by higher investment returns. Net income climbed to 32.9 billion RMB, or 1.16 RMB a share, from a restated 19.1 billion RMB, or 0.68 RMB a share, according to the statement. *********************************** China's property market is a bubble that may burst by as early as this year, according to hedge fund manager James Chanos. The world's third-biggest economy may need to keep up the pace of property investment because up to 60% of its gross domestic product relies on construction, said Chanos. The bubble may begin to "run its course" in late-2010 or 2011, he said in an interview on "The Charlie Rose Show" that will air on PBS and Bloomberg TV. China is "on a treadmill to hell," said Chanos, who said in January the nation is Dubai times a thousand. "They can't afford to get off this heroin of property development. It is the only thing keeping the economic growth numbers growing." Property prices in China rose at the fastest pace in almost two years in February even after officials this year re-imposed a tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase to curb speculation and ordered banks to set aside more funds as reserves to cool lending. The boom in China's real estate has fueled concern that China may face a collapse seen in Dubai that has hurt the ability of some of its companies to repay debt. Since his January prediction, Chanos, the founder of Kynikos Associates Ltd, has been joined by Gloom, Doom & Boom publisher Marc Faber and Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a potential crash in China's property market. Chinese state and local governments are among the most leveraged to property-related borrowings and the nation will "ultimately" have to nationalize a lot of the bad loans that will arise from the end of the bubble, Chanos said. China's foreign currency reserves will be "one asset" that can be used to fund a cleanup of the banking system, he said. The country has accumulated a record $2.4 trillion of reserves, and $889 billion of US government debt, partly a consequence of its exchange-rate policy. Chanos was one of the first investors to foresee the 2001 collapse of Houston-based energy company Enron Corp. The investor said he is short-selling Chinese developers as well as companies supplying building-related materials to the country, without identifying any stocks. *********************************** Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. asked 21 investment banks to submit proposals to manage a planned initial public offering that could raise more than $20 billion, one of the world's largest IPOs, the Wall Street Journal reported. The new Agricultural Bank stock is expected to list in both Shanghai and Hong Kong later this year, reported the Journal. An offering this year could test market sentiment. Hong Kong's Seng Index is up 0.3% this year, and China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 3.9% this year after a big rise last year, amid concerns that China will pull back on stimulus efforts following a flood of other IPOs, the Journal reported. Agricultural Bank is China's third-largest lender by assets after ICBC and China Construction Bank, and is the country's largest rural lender. In recent years, it has been expanding its lending in urban areas, a more profitable business for the banks, according to the Journal. *********************************** Three-year bills were auctioned for the first time since mid-2008, suggesting the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is increasingly worried that cash is still too abundant in the banking system amid rebounding property prices in major Chinese cities and after two purchasing managers' indexes last week pointed to brisk first-quarter GDP growth. The resumption was considered a signal that eventual monetary policy tightening was drawing closer, but traders said the PBOC may want to rely on fund drains via bill sales for now before raising bank reserve ratios or benchmark interest rates. "The central bank may wait to raise reserve ratios until it can no longer keep draining funds through bill sales, and may wait to raise interest rates until inflation rises above the target," said a trader at a domestic bank in Shanghai. The stepped-up open market operations nevertheless suggested rising concern about the risk of overheating in the economy, especially in the real estate sector. The official People's Daily's overseas edition on Thursday quoted Chen Dongqi, researcher under the National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planner, as saying China's economy would grow by more than 10% in 2010, up from 8.7% in 2009. The auction yield on the three-year bills came in at 2.75%, above market forecasts which had centred around 2.7%, showing demand was lukewarm given concerns about future tightening of monetary policy. But the result remained below Wednesday's indicative secondary market bid yield of 2.7636% for three-year financial bonds issued by Chinese banks, according to Reuters Reference Rates. The PBOC also sold three-month bills in its open market operations on Thursday at a yield unchanged from last week, traders said, in line with market expectations. The auction yield has been at 1.4088% since Jan. 21. The PBOC drained 15 billion RMB via the sale of three-year bills, which will be issued every other week, and mopped up another 75 billion RMB via three-month bills and 60 billion RMB through 91-day bond repurchase agreements. On Tuesday, it drained 60 billion RMB via a sale of one-year bills and mopped up another 80 billion RMB through 28-day bond repurchase agreements. With a total of 180 billion RMB in central bank bills and repos maturing this week, the PBOC appears set to soak up a hefty net 110 billion RMB from the market for the week. Last week it drained 163 billion RMB. |
| Summary
The coming week looks like ..... | 
Greece, preparing to court foreign bond investors later in April, faces a test of investor appetite in the coming week as it seeks to raise 1.2 billion Euros in auctions of six-month and one-year treasury bills. The potential high cost of short-term borrowing may depend on whether Athens first has recourse to the EU/IMF safety net towards which the market seems to be pushing it. Any potential resolution to the Greek crisis would help other peripheral Euro zone borrowers, though Italy, which comes to market in the coming week, has so far been ring-fenced from the fallout and even seen spreads over Bunds narrow. Sovereign risks remain at the forefront of investors' minds with the Greece's crisis possibly heading for a climax, after a further debt downgrade and with risk premium and insurance costs for Greek debt still elevated. Bulgaria's shock admission it had hidden the truth about the size of its deficit has raised questions over whether eastern Europe might be vulnerable to Greece-style difficulties. Markets will be wondering whether the risk/reward tradeoff is attractive enough to make bond vigilantes test other countries facing fiscal challenges. As speculation grows of an imminent RMB revaluation (no chance in my humble opinion), investors will focus on moves in spot RMB and non-deliverable forwards as possible triggers for broader buying of the Yen -- used as a proxy for less flexible currencies in Asia. President Hu Jintao visits Washington for a nuclear security conference hosted by his counterpart Barack Obama in the coming week but the move may come later (try a year or two later ....). Investors are focusing on the scale of any move (which I don't think is going to happen anyway as I say) but one step that may happen is that China could also start managing the RMB within a trade-weighted band against a basket of currencies. I think you might see China talk about doing this 'in the future' and then drag their heels as I say by a good year or two. The company earnings season kicks off in the coming week, providing the next impetus for equities. Valuations are hovering near 2007 pre-crisis level after shares rallied from their March 2009 lows. Among the big companies to report are JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, General Electric, Google, and Intel. European and UK companies are likely to see their bottom line boosted by a weaker Euro and Sterling, respectively. US firms, on the other hand, are expected to be penalised by the same weak Euro. In the end, though, the better visibility on the second quarter contained in companies' guidance may be more important if good news, such as this month's positive surprise on US payrolls, is already priced in. First-quarter results in the coming week will show whether big US banks have been restored to health by a period of low funding costs and easy money, justifying recent sharp rises in their share prices. Signs of post-crisis improvement can be expected for the likes of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America. But things may start to get tougher for banks across developed markets as central banks withdraw the abundant liquidity injected into economies at the height of the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve has closed some emergency lending facilities and raised its discount rate, the European Central Bank has unwound some emergency measures but has pledged banks unlimited funds until October while the Bank of England has halted its quantitative easing programme of asset purchases. On the other hand, banks may benefit from expected economic growth. The OECD has forecast continuing, albeit slower, recovery across the G7 for the first two quarters of 2010. Major economic reports scheduled for next week include the US Department of Labour's consumer price index, which measures the price level of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by customers. The CPI, which is the most widely cited inflation indicator, reported consumer price levels held steady in February, but on Wednesday, the index is expected to show a slight increase in March. The Department of Commerce will release its March retail sales report on Wednesday, coming after most retailers' same-store sales blew past expectations and several companies boosted their earnings outlooks. Retail sales, as reported by the government, grew the first two months of the year, as consumers became cautiously more optimistic about the economy, although high unemployment remains a concern - but not as much as it should do in my humble opinion! Looking closer at the week ahead; Monday will start with the UK Leading Indicators of economic conditions. News from Canada will bring the Canadian Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity. The Japanese CGPI- Corporate Goods Price Index, an equivalent to a PPI- Producers Price Index as a measure of wholesale inflation experienced by manufacturers and a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The day will end with the Australian Business Confidence survey of business sentiment. Tuesday will begin with the German CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone's largest economy. Important UK economic data will bring the UK Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services, along with the UK Department for Communities and Local Government House Price Index, a measure of UK housing market conditions and home price changes. The only notable US economic report for the day will be the US International Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports of goods and services, along with the Canadian Trade Balance. The day will conclude with the New Zealand Retail Sales, the main gauge of consumer spending and the Australian Consumer Sentiment survey of consumers' outlook on the economy. Wednesday will be the busiest trading session of the week, starting with a spotlight event- the Euro-zone Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring of the output of factories, mines and utilities. The US economic reports will bring one of the main spotlight events of the week- the US CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the world's largest economy, along with the US Retail Sales, the main gauge of consumer spending measuring the total sales at retail establishments. The US CPI is expected to show a small increase in inflationary pressures by 0.1% m/m, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) likely to remain flat at 0.0% m/m, while the retail sales inch higher by 1.1% in March from 0.3% in February. Another important event from the US that morning will be the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Testimony on economic conditions in front of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. The US Business Inventories, a leading indicator of economic activity, will be released at 10:00 am, ET, followed by the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Oil Inventories. The US economic data will continue with a spotlight event- the Federal Reserve Beige Book of economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve Districts based on anecdotal evidence considered by the FOMC members when making monetary policy decisions. The evening reports will begin with the New Zealand Manufacturing PMI-Purchasing Managers' Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. The UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey of consumers' outlook on the economy will be released followed by the Australian Inflation Expectations. The day will end with a spotlight event that will deliver a series of important economic data from the world's fastest-growing economy, which will include the Chinese GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, the Chinese Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity, the Chinese CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, and the Chinese Retail Sales, the main gauge of consumer spending. Thursday will begin with a spotlight event- the Japanese Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities. The European Central Bank's Monthly Bulletin on economic conditions, inflation and monetary policy will come followed by the Euro-zone Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services. The US economic reports will bring a sequence of important data, starting with the weekly Jobless Claims, a gauge of Labour market conditions measuring new unemployment claims and the Empire State Manufacturing Index of economic conditions in the state of New York. The US TIC- Treasury International Capital, a measure of the attractiveness of the US Dollar, tracking the flows of financial instruments into and out of the United States, will follow. One of the main spotlight events of the week will bring the US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities. Consensus forecasts anticipate an increase in US industrial production by 0.5% in March from 0.1% in the previous month. The US economic data will continue with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index of economic conditions in the Philadelphia region; the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Natural Gas Inventories. The US Housing Market Index of housing market conditions based on a combination of current new home sales, expected new home sales for the next six months, as well as traffic of prospective buyers of new homes, will wrap up the day. Friday will start with the Swiss PPI- Producers Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation experienced by manufacturers and a leading indicator of consumer inflation. A spotlight event- the Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone and the European equivalent to the CPI- Consumer Price Index. News from Canada will deliver the Canadian Manufacturing Sales, a leading indicator of economic conditions. The US economic data will bring a sequence of spotlight events, beginning with the US Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring new residential construction. Housing starts in March could increase to 610k from 575k in February. The trading week will end with another spotlight event- the preliminary estimate of the US Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan's monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy. The US consumer sentiment is expected to improve with a reading of 75.0 from 73.6 in the previous month. All told I think that no matter what happens with all of the days' releases mentioned above or what happens with Greece and its debt, China its RMB or anything else for that matter, we will see stockmarkets power ahead on corporate earnings alone and the US will continue to 'talk-up' markets until they lead them to the edge of a precipice ..... it is just a matter of how far away that precipice is! While the near-term outlook is constructive for risk, many markets have reached potentially pivotal levels, so some short-term consolidation seems likely. But many of the barriers appear to be merely psychological and could be surmounted relatively easily. In US stocks, for example, the Dow and S&P 500 are likely to test key 12K and 1200 levels next week; a break above would be bullish for risk. All scary thoughts Ladies & Gentlemen I can assure you ......... |
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Newsletter Written By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International | |
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