Financial Page International

12 December 2009 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
Kuries kai Kurioi kalimera sas.
 
Yes, it's Greek to me too and this week has seen the focus in Europe primarily concentrate on the home of Feta and Retsina.
 
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou began the week with his office protected by baton-wielding riot police taming student protests.
 
Now, investors have him under siege as the country's bonds tumble.
 
"Things are difficult, there's no question about it," he said in an interview Thursday in his office overlooking Syntagma Square, the hub of downtown Athens. "It's a very hard fiscal situation. It's not one that's not reversible."
 
Papaconstantinou, 48, has spent much of the past week reassuring investors and European leaders that Greece won't default on its $350 billion in debt, its banks will keep access to European Central Bank financing and Prime Minister George Papandreou understands the worst fiscal crisis in 15 years.
 
Greek bonds plunged to their lowest in seven months on Dec. 9 and stocks slumped after Fitch Ratings cut Greece one step to BBB+, saying Papandreou's two-month-old government isn't doing enough to tame a deficit of 12.7% of output, the highest in the European Union. A day earlier, Standard & Poor's put its A- rating on watch for downgrade.
 
The yield on Greece's 2-year bond has surged 127 basis points to 3.15% this week, driving it above Turkey's for the first time.
European officials added to pressure on Greece. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Friday that "courageous" action is needed to close the budget gap. Economists pointed to Ireland's decision to cut wages for public servants, compared with Greece's 1.5% pay increase for most workers.
 
Papandreou appointed Papaconstantinou, who holds a doctorate from the London School of Economics, after he led the socialists to victory in October elections, winning a 10-seat majority in parliament. While the party won on a platform of higher wages that contrasted with Karamanlis's pledges for a pay freeze, Papaconstantinou was within weeks forced to publish revised figures that cast doubt over Greece's fiscal health.
 
Data showed Greece's deficit this year would be more than twice the previous government's forecasts and four times the EU limit. Other revisions showed that, rather than being one of the few European economies still growing amid the worst global slump since World War II, Greece had been in a recession for a year.
 
Papaconstantinou defends his government's strategy to reduce the deficit by more than 3 percentage points of GDP to 9.1% next year.
 
"What exactly has changed in the last 40 days to justify a downgrade?" he said of the Fitch decision.
 
Greece needs to show that it will do more than rely on optimistic revenue forecasts and one-time measures to achieve those gains, economists say.
 
About 75% of the current deficit reduction plan comes from raising revenue rather than cutting spending, Deutsche Bank AG estimates.
 
Much of that will come from a crackdown on tax evasion, a chronic problem in Greece that a series of governments have pledged to combat.
 
Now after just two months as finance minister and with the rating companies circling, Papaconstantinou must design a new plan due in January to convince EU leaders that Greece is serious about cutting the deficit and deserves an extension of the 2010 deadline to get its shortfall back within the EU limit.
 
Rating agencies and EU institutions will probably want to see much more structural measures than currently announced to tackle the deficit, aimed at permanently and credibly increasing tax revenues and tackling age-related soaring public spending.
 
The government will announce further deficit measures next week and is committed to cutting spending by 10% next year to control the shortfall, Papandreou said in an interview with CNBC in Brussels before a summit of EU leaders Friday. "There will be some more changes that will make this sustainable so that it's not a one-off deal," he said.
 
Nevertheless, talk of a default may be overblown because the rest of the EU would probably help Greece, says the head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
 
"The question of the ratings is perhaps of less consequence than one should think," said Secretary General Angel Gurria in an interview Thursday.
 
Papaconstantinou, married with two sons aged 14 and 11, says 10 years as an economist at the OECD will help him argue his case in Europe.
 
"You have to be able to have a presence around the Eurogroup table; you need to know what you're talking about," he said. "Especially because the issues have become infinitely more complicated than they have been in the past.
 
For now, Papaconstantinou says the force of the bond market isn't disrupting his life as it might other people.
 
"Actually I sleep quite well", he said. "I think that's one of the big advantages I have. I'm fairly level-headed in general and even though I do worry about things they don't keep me up at night."
 
Great stuff from the man at the top - he's sleeping well!
 
But seriously, focus was on Dubai last week, Greece this week and who knows, Ireland possibly next week because they appear to be having problems growing out of the credit crisis.
 
It does not bode well because I fear that Spain and Portugal will follow shortly and whilst their current problems are being somewhat down-played, I feel it's only a matter of time before the true extent/depth of their issues come to light.
 
So all is not well in Europe it appears and I have to ask the question whether we will now start to see differences of opinion between France and Germany comPound the problems.
 
An interesting one to watch in the weeks ahead.
 
On to the numbers this week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummarySigns that consumers are shopping again prompted investors to do the same thing Friday, pushing the stock market just shy of a fresh 14-month closing high.

New data on retail sales and consumer sentiment were strong, bolstering hopes for a bustling holiday-spending season to boost major retailers' profits.
 
The latest reports fit into a broader trend in which most - but not all - economic yardsticks have pointed toward recovery in the US.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 65.67 points, or 0.6%, to 10,471.50, just 0.08 point from its recent high set on Dec. 1. The Dow rose 0.8% for the week, which included modest gains in four sessions that ultimately offset a triple-digit slide on Tuesday.
 
The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.55 point, leaving it flat in percentage terms at 2190.31. The Russell 2000 rose 0.8%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, helped by gains in all its sectors except technology, off 0.3%, and health care, off 0.1%.
 
Most traders are looking for such gradual gains in the market to continue through year end, helped in part by last-minute tweaking of portfolios before Wall Street firms bring the year to a close.
 
Alcoa was the Dow's strongest component in percentage terms, up 8.2% due to a rise in aluminum prices and an increase in J.P. Morgan's profit estimate for the company.
 
Encouragingly in my opinion, I have noted some level of trepidation was starting to creep in as 2010 approaches. Aside from the potential impact of rising interest rates, a recent downtrend in volume could reflect more than just the time of year.
 
It's indicative of a hollowing out of demand for stocks; a lot of the high-risk trades are in weak hands right now. There is potential for an abrupt correction over the next several months - but I have been saying that for the last 3 months as you all know!
 
Composite volume in New York Stock Exchange-listed companies hit 3.9 billion shares, missing the 2009 daily average for the eighth time in nine sessions so far this month. Advancers outnumbered decliners almost two to one.
 
The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 1.3% last month, better than the 0.7% increase that was expected by economists. The result provided evidence that consumers were buying aggressively and supporting the economy in the holiday-shopping season.
 
That argument was strengthened when the University of Michigan/Reuters preliminary consumer sentiment index moved to 73.4 in December from 67.4 in November, marking its highest level since September.
 
The strong economic reports also helped to lift the Dollar, which has sometimes moved higher in tandem with stocks lately. Those moves buck the trend that the Dollar and stocks exhibited through much of 2009, though traders think the old inverse relationship could return yet.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks advanced for a second day, trimming the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index's weekly decline, as China's industrial output and US retail sales and consumer confidence increased more than forecast.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, and Xstrata Plc rallied with higher metals prices. ING Groep NV surged 1.6% after saying it will repay 5.6 billion Euros ($8.3 billion) of government aid. Randstad Holding NV surged 4% after CA Cheuvreux upgraded the world's second-largest staffing company.
 
The Stoxx 600 advanced 0.5% to 245.13, bringing its weekly drop to 1.5%. The measure has climbed 55% since 9 March, pushing the valuation to about 55 times its companies' reported earnings, near the highest level since 2003.
 
The Stoxx 600 fell for the first three days of this week as Spain's credit outlook was reduced to negative from stable by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services and Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece. The reliability of sovereign credit has come under increased scrutiny since 25 November, when Dubai World, a state- owned holding company, said it would seek a standstill agreement on its debt repayments.
 
The Stoxx 600 is heading for its biggest annual gain in 10 years after central banks cut interest rates to record lows and governments worldwide committed about $12 trillion to revive the economy.
 
European Union leaders said government stimulus measures should stay in place until the "recovery is fully secured."
 
GERMANY
 
German stocks advanced for a second day, with the benchmark DAX Index trimming its weekly decline, after reports showed US retail sales and China's industrial output grew more than economists forecast.
 
Linde AG surged 3.9% after Morgan Stanley recommended the world's second-biggest maker of industrial gases. BASF SE, the largest chemical maker, completed its longest stretch of weekly gains since 2008. Volkswagen AG rose 1.2% as the carmaker reported higher group sales.
 
The DAX added 0.8% to 5,756.29. The gauge posted a 1.1% drop this week. The broader HDAX Index also increased 0.8% Friday.
 
Linde jumped 3.9% to 85.60 Euros, its biggest advance since April. The company was raised to "overweight" from "equal-weight" at Morgan Stanley, which said "consensus is failing to recognize the recovery potential in sales in the medium term."
 
BASF advanced 1.9% to 43.04 Euros, completing its sixth week of gains. Chief Executive Officer Juergen Hambrecht may avoid making the company's first dividend cut for 16 years after an unexpected spurt in orders, analysts said. BASF is able to earn its cost of capital this year, Hambrecht's prerequisite for maintaining investor payouts.
 
Volkswagen, Europe's biggest automaker, added 1.2% to 81.67 Euros, capping its first weekly gain in almost two months. The company said group deliveries increased 19% to 531,300 vehicles in November from a year earlier.
 
Allianz, Europe's biggest insurer, rose 1.7% to 84.60 Euros. The company is optimistic on the outlook for directors and officers insurance after claims peaked and prices began rising in some industries, Allianz executives said.
 
K+S, Europe's biggest potash producer, advanced 1.6% to 42.25 Euros. The company sold new shares valued at 689 million Euros ($1.01 billion) to improve its balance sheet and secure an investment-grade rating.
 
RWE, Germany's second-largest utility, posted a second weekly gain and climbed 1.3% to 64.39 Euros Friday. The company will win back about 100,000 electricity clients this year, Chief Operating Officer Ulrich Jobs said.
 
Carl Zeiss Meditec surged 4.8% to 12.05 Euros, its biggest jump in a month. The maker of medical lasers to correct vision defects was raised to "add" from "hold" at Commerzbank AG and to "buy" from "hold" at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking.
 
Separately, the company appointed Christian Mueller to the management board and as chief financial officer, with effect from Dec. 15.
 
Drillisch climbed 3.2% to 5.23 Euros, snapping a four-day drop. The mobile-phone company said it had become the sole shareholder of MSP Holding GmbH after it bought United Internet AG's stake in MSP.
 
ElringKlinger jumped 3% to 15.65 Euros as the German automotive supplier was rated "buy" in new coverage at Close Brothers Group Plc.
 
Fraport increased 1.3% to 34.93 Euros after the operator of the Frankfurt airport was raised to "overweight" from "neutral" at HSBC Holdings Plc.
 
Q-Cells slid 1.9% to 10.35 Euros, a third straight decline. The solar-cell maker was rated "sell" in new coverage at Hapoalim Securities.
 
Stada Arzneimittel fell 1.8% to 25.89 Euros, its biggest drop this month.
The German generic-drug maker was cut to "neutral" from "buy" at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, which said "while our buy thesis was partly predicated on positive German healthcare reform proposals and cost savings, we now believe these are largely priced in."
 
FRANCE
 
France's CAC 40 Index added 5.34, or 0.1%, to 3,803.72 in Paris, for a 1.1% decline this week. The SBF 120 Index rose 0.2% Friday.
 
Stocks sensitive to the economy gained as reports Friday showed China's industrial output grew more than economists estimated in November, sales at US retailers rose more than forecast last month and a gauge of US consumer confidence topped estimates this month.
 
PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe's second-largest carmaker, climbed 2.3% to 23.75 Euros. European Aeronautics, Defence & Space Co., owner of planemaker Airbus SAS, gained 2% to 12.37 Euros.
 
Air Liquide SA, the world's biggest producer of industrial gases, rallied 1.2% to 77.7 Euros.
 
Club Mediterranee advanced 33 cents, or 2.4%, to 14.25 Euros, gaining for a second day this week. Europe's largest resort company said winter bookings in the past eight weeks are up 22%. Gilbert Dupont raised its recommendation on the stock to "buy" from "accumulate."
 
Entrepose Contracting jumped 2.47 Euros, or 4.3%, to 59.47, the biggest gain in about six weeks. The builder of pipelines and storage facilities won a contract from a unit of Exxon Mobil Corp. in Papua New Guinea.
 
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton climbed 1.35 Euros, or 1.9%, to 73.62, gaining the most in a week. The world's biggest maker of luxury goods was rated "overweight" in new coverage at Barclays Plc.
 
Meetic, Europe's biggest publicly traded Internet dating site, advanced 25 cents, or 1.4%, to 18.60 Euros, for the biggest gain in more than a week. The stock was raised to "buy" from "hold" at Berenberg Bank.
 
Thales added 1.06 Euros, or 3.2%, to 33.91, the biggest gain in nine weeks. Europe's second-biggest defense-electronics maker plans to make 1.3 billion Euros ($1.9 billion) in productivity gains as it shakes up management, cuts costs and improves handling of contract bids.
 
BELGIUM
 
The Bel 20 in brussels closed out the trading session and the week Friday at 2,487.38, up 0.15%.
 
Belgium's economy grew by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2009, in line with a flash estimate released in October, the country's central bank said on Wednesday.
 
On a year-on-year basis, the Belgian economy expanded by 3.4%, against the initial forecast of 3.5%, the central bank said.
 
The Belgian central bank on Monday raised its forecasts for economic growth in the country for this year and next. For 2009 it forecast economic contraction of 3.1% and for 2010 growth of 1.0%.
 
The contribution to GDP from the manufacturing sector rose by 1.0% in the third quarter against a 0.8% drop in the second and of services by 0.4% against a 0.1% fall.
 
Household spending improved by 0.2% in the third quarter, but capital investment fell by 2.0%, and by 1.8% among businesses.
 
Exports of goods and services rose 6.4%, while imports rose 5.7%
Franco-Belgian bank Dexia SA Wednesday said it has concluded a deal to sell Dexia Epargne Pension to BNP Paribas.
 
DEP, a 100% subsidiary of Dexia, offers life insurance products in France, principally to private clients, via some 60 distribution partners.
 
DEP employs 65 people, most of whom are located in Paris, Dexia said.
The sale of Dexia's insurance unit falls within the restructuring that was required after it received state aid during the financial crisis.
 
The transaction is subject to approval from the supervisory authorities and is expected to be finalized in the first quarter of 2010, Dexia said.
 
The profit made by Dexia from the sale will be recorded in the bank's accounts for the first quarter of 2010.
 
THE NETHERLANDS
 
In Amsterdam, the AEX rounded out a busy week on 320.14, a gain of 0.77% for the day.
 
Dutch telecommunications company Royal KPN said Wednesday it has extended its cash tender offer to acquire all the outstanding shares of iBasis Inc which are not held by KPN.
 
KPN has extended the expiration date of the tender offer in order to allow all of iBasis's investors additional time to participate in the offer, including investors who are required to provide instructions to tender through their bank, broker or other nominee.
 
The tender offer will now expire at midnight, New York City time, on Friday, December 18, 2009, unless further extended. All other terms and conditions of the tender offer, including the final offer price of $3.00 per share, remain unchanged.
 
The depositary for the tender offer has informed KPN that, as of midnight on Tuesday, December 8, 2009, approximately 23,112,954 shares have been tendered in and not withdrawn from the tender offer.
 
Together with the 40,121,074 shares already owned by KPN, this represents approximately 88.8% of the shares outstanding immediately prior to the expiration of the offer.
 
Fortis investors seeking to reverse the breakup of the financial-services firm lost a court bid to halt the integration of the former Belgian banking unit into BNP Paribas SA.
 
The Brussels Commercial Court rejected Friday demands from more than 2,000 Fortis investors to impose constraints on the integration of Fortis Bank SA/NV by Paris-based BNP Paribas. Judge Patrice Libiez also ruled the Brussels court can't keep the Dutch government from selling ASR Nederland NV, the former Dutch insurance unit of Fortis.
 
Giving in to demands from investors who hold less than 1% of Fortis shares would possibly have endangered financial stability in Belgium as Fortis Bank is still recovering from the banking crisis and is trying to regain confidence of its customers, the Brussels court said. Libiez also ruled the Dutch state and central bank are immune in Belgian courts.
 
The Brussels court also ordered Fortis to disclose some internal documents detailing the valuation of its former units in the breakup as well as some documents compiled for the voting procedures at the April 28 annual meeting in Ghent.
 
The Dutch central bank raised its economic outlook for 2010 on expectations that improvement in global trade would boost the country's exports.
 
The central bank now predicts the Dutch economy to grow 0.7% in 2010, a revision from a contraction of between 0.8% and 1.4% forecast in June. Growth is then expected to accelerate to 1.2% in 2011. In the current year, the economy would contract 4%. The Netherlands' economy exited recession in the third quarter by growing 0.4% sequentially.
 
Moreover, the central bank forecasts unemployment rate to rise to over 6.5% in 2011. Inflation in the next two years is expected to remain below 1% due to the decline wage growth. It sees inflation at 0.2% in 2010 and at 0.7% in 2011, down from 1% predicted for this year.
 
AUSTRIA
 
The ATX in Vienna closed out the day Friday at 2,489.08, dropping 0.11% on the day.
 
Italian tax agents and police carried out checks on branches of Austrian banks in Italy on Thursday, just weeks after raids on Swiss banking offices as part of a crackdown on tax evasion.
 
Italy's tax agency said in a statement that the operation was to verify banks were accurately reporting their relations with clients. Italy launched a tax amnesty earlier this year to recover billions of Euros illegally held in foreign tax havens.
 
Austrian industrial-lighting manufacturer Zumtobel said Wednesday its fiscal first-half net profit fell 41% because of the global economic crisis, fierce price competition and currency losses, and cautioned that demand hasn't yet bottomed out.
 
The company reiterated it intends to partly counter the sluggish demand by cutting Eur100 million in costs by the end of fiscal 2011, and said it managed to trim the first Eur47 million in the past 12 months.
 
"In spite of isolated positive signals, we are unable to report a turnaround in demand. We expect to see a further decline in revenues for the full 2010 financial year, although this should be more moderate during the second six months because of the lower prior-year comparative values," Zumtobel Chief Executive Andreas Ludwig said in a statement.
 
"Our ongoing cost savings efforts will help us generate positive operating results in the seasonally weaker second half of the year," Ludwig said.
Statistics Austria announced that the wholesale price index for November dropped 3% year-on-year, after a 6.2% decline in the previous month. The year-on-year decline in wholesale prices started in November 2008.
 
Month-on-month, the index rose 0.2% in November. In October, wholesales prices dipped 0.1%.
 
SWITZERLAND
 
Zurich's SMI finished a hectic week at 6,411.58, up a fraction of 0.01% for the session Friday.
 
Philipp Hildebrand, hedge fund manager turned central banker, is setting his sights on the dangers posed by UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG to the Swiss economy.
 
Hildebrand, who takes the helm of the Swiss National Bank next month, is pushing what he calls a "no-more-taboos" stance after decades in which Switzerland's banks were treated more with reverence than regulation. A year after the financial crisis forced a government bailout of UBS, the 46-year-old is signaling a willingness to be tougher than foreign counterparts and that he may go as far as to break up a bank if needed.
 
Credit Suisse and UBS have assets six times the size of the economy, a source of unease for a country that relies on the perception of stability to attract wealthy investors. While banks have indicated they'll fight any laws putting them at a disadvantage, Hildebrand has said that the size of the Swiss financial sector doesn't only call for faster but also stricter rules in the Alpine nation.
 
The SNB, which tomorrow holds its last policy meeting under President Jean-Pierre Roth before Hildebrand takes over on Jan. 1, will probably keep its key rate at 0.25%, according to all 16 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The bank will release its decision at 9:30 a.m. in Zurich.
 
Hildebrand, who previously worked for hedge fund company Moore Capital Management, also faces the challenge of withdrawing unprecedented stimulus measures without derailing an economic recovery from the worst slump in over thirty years or stoking inflation. As the economy recovers, the SNB may phase out its purchases of foreign currencies aimed to keep the franc from appreciating.
 
Switzerland's unadjusted jobless rate rose to 4.2% in November from 4% recorded in October, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said Wednesday. That was in line with economists' expectations. At the same time, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate stood stable at 4.1%.
 
On an unadjusted basis, there were 163,950 unemployed people at the end of November, up 581,2 from October. Unemployment among youngsters rose 153 persons from October to 293,36. There were 226,116 jobseekers in November, an increase of 814,4 from the previous month. A total of 129,36 vacancies were reported in November, down 211 month-on-month.
 
Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office announced that the consumer price index or CPI remained unchanged in November, compared to a 0.8% fall in the previous month. Economists were looking for a decline of 0.1%. A year ago, the CPI was up 1.5%.
 
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in November, slower than the 0.6% growth in the preceding month. Economists expected a flat reading for November.
 
Switzerland's seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 1.3% month-on-month in October in real terms, the Federal Statistical Office reported Monday.
 
In nominal terms, growth was 0.7%.
 
Excluding fuel, retail sales rose real seasonally adjusted 1.4% on a monthly basis and climbed 1.4% nominally. Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered an increase of real 1.9% and the non-food sector showed positive growth of 1.6%.
 
On an annual basis, not seasonally adjusted retail sales grew 3.1% in real terms in October and increased 2.1% in nominal terms.
 
SWEDEN
 
The OMX in Stockholm brought the week to an end at 949.84, up 0.26%.
 
Deutsche Bank has upgraded its share price targets on six Swedish industrial companies and has reaffirmed its rating at "hold" for four of them and at "buy" for the other two.
 
The target on Assa Abloy has been hiked to SEK140 from SEK130, that on Sandvik to SEK90 from SEK85, on Trelleborg to SEK55 from SEK45, and on Alfa Laval to SEK95 from SEK85. All four companies got their "hold" ratings maintained.
 
At the same time, Deutsche Bank kept its "buy" recommendation for Atlas Copco and AB SKF, while raising the companies' targets to SEK120 from SEK105 and to SEK145 from SEK135, respectively.
 
Statistics Sweden announced that the industrial production dropped 16.1% year-on-year in October, faster than the 12.5% decline expected by economists.
 
On a monthly basis, industrial output declined 2.7% in October, slower than the 0.9% growth expected by economists.
 
In the August to October period, industrial production decreased 1.3% compared to the May to July period.
 
They also announced that the industrial new orders decreased 13.3% year-on-year in October, compared to the 12.9% fall in the previous month, revised from 12.1% decline reported initially.
 
On a monthly basis, industrial new orders increased 1.5% in October, faster than the 0.4% growth in the preceding month.
 
For the August to October period, new orders increased 1.4% compared to the previous three months period.
 
The activity index, which measures activity in the Swedish economy, dropped 0.28% in October, after falling 0.31% in September. The index decreased to 102.61 from 102.90 in September.
 
Year-on-year, the index on a trend basis, slipped 3.31% in October, following 3.61% fall in September.
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the activity index increased 0.31% in October, compared to the 2.91% fall in the previous month.
 
The statistical office said the decrease in the index was mainly due to a fall in exports of goods and industrial production.
 
Swedish central government payments showed a surplus of SEK 6.7 billion in November, the Debt Office reported Monday. This was smaller than the SEK 13 billion surplus estimated by the Debt Office.
 
The report showed that net lending and interest payments on central government debt were SEK 4 billion and SEK 0.1 billion higher than calculated. At the same time, tax payments were SEK 3 billion lower than estimated. And, disbursements from authorities were SEK 1 billion lower than forecast.
 
For the twelve-month period up to the end of November, central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 191 billion. Central government debt amounted to SEK 1,115 billion at the end of November.
 
NORWAY
 
Oslo's OBX completed the week at 330.82, down 0.16% for the Friday session.
 
More than 933,000 passengers travelled with low-fare airline Norwegian in November. This an increase of more than 200,000 passengers, or 28% compared with November last year.
 
Norwegian November daily oil production rose slightly to 2.064 million barrels a day from October's 2.009 million barrels, preliminary figures from the country's Petroleum Directorate showed Wednesday.
 
Figures also indicated output of 344,000 barrels a day of natural gas liquids and condensate in November, down from 351,000 barrels in October.
 
In October, final figures for total oil and gas output show 19.8 million cubic meters of oil equivalents were produced, 1.4 million less than in October 2008.
 
Production from Snoehvit was reduced in October due to planned maintenance, while the Vigdis and Snorre fields were also operating below capacity, the NPD said.
 
In January to October, average daily production was about 2 million barrels of oil, or 197.2 million cubic meters in total, which is 0.6 million cubic meters more than the same period last year.
 
The NPD said production from the Snoehvit and Vale fields was closed for planned maintenance and technical problems. "The Volund field is waiting for capacity on Alvheim and is closed for the time being," it said.
 
Final figures for November production will be published at the beginning of January, the NPD said.
 
Industrial production in Norway dropped a seasonally adjusted 1.1% month-on-month in October, in contrast to the 1% rise in the previous month, Statistics Norway reported on Monday.
 
Manufacturing, mining & quarrying output fell 1.5% on month in October, reversing the 2.3% gain in the preceding month. Economists had expected manufacturing, mining & quarrying production to rise 0.4%.
 
On a yearly basis, industrial output dropped a working day adjusted 4.9% in October. Manufacturing production dropped 5.3%, steeper than expectations for a 3.7% decline.
 
In a separate report, the statistical agency said that manufacturing turnover increased 1.7% month-on-month in October, rebounding from the 1.2% decrease in the previous month. Turnover grew by 2% in the domestic market and by 1.8% in the export market.
 
DENMARK
 
In Copenhagen, the OMX ended on 332.00, up 0.04% on the day.
 
The Danish economy is headed for a gradual but modest upturn, though it will take many quarters to regain pre-crisis output levels, Denmark's central bank said on Thursday.
 
The Nationalbank said in a quarterly economic review that several indicators pointed to a stabilisation of the Danish economy in the third quarter.
 
"Looking forward, the emerging economic turnaround abroad can contribute to pulling up activity in Denmark through increased exports," the bank said.
 
"A gradual upswing with modest growth is expected," it said, but it did not provide new numerical forecasts for the economy which has been suffering from its worst downturn since the Second World War.
 
"It will take many quarters before last year's loss of production is recovered, so unemployment is expected to continue to rise," it added.
 
The bank, whose monetary policy aims to keep the crown currency stable against the Euro, said the crown had been stable in recent months near its central parity though demand for crowns had increased.
 
The bank's mandate is to keep the crown within a narrow band to the Euro around its central parity of 7.46038 and between 7.62824 and 7.29252.
 
The bank said that demand for the crown in the foreign-exchange market led it to buy considerable amounts of currency, but it added that its interventions in the market had decreased markedly since its last interest rate cut in September.
 
The Nationalbank's main policy interest rate, the lending rate, stands at 1.25% after 11 cuts totalling 425 basis points since November 2008 when the global economic crisis deepened, dragging Denmark's economy with it.
 
The bank said that the government's 2010 budget and earlier decisions meant that fiscal policy would be expansive next year.
 
It said that lax policy underscored a need for the central government to come up with a medium-term plan for consolidating public finances in the years ahead.
 
"Such a plan should not only include a target for consolidation, but also show the means that will be used to achieve the planned improvement in fiscal policy," it said.
 
"That would strengthen the credibility of fiscal policy and reduce the risk of widening rate spreads to rates abroad as a consequence of the fast build-up of debt," it said.
 
The bank's quarterly review came a day before the government is scheduled to publish a review of its 2010 budget proposal from August.
 
Statistics Denmark announced that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus stood at DKK 3.6 billion in October, down from DKK 6 billion surplus in the previous month.
 
Exports dropped 16% year-on-year to DKK 40.5 billion in October, while imports fell 21% to DKK 36.9 billion.
 
On a monthly basis, exports dropped 1.3% and imports increased 5.3% in October.
 
Meanwhile, the trade surplus, excluding ships, etc. amounted to DKK 6.9 billion in October, down from DKK 7.2 billion surplus in September.
 
On a monthly basis, exports and imports decreased by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively in October. Year-on-year, exports decreased 15.8% in October, while imports dropped 26.9%.
 
SD also said in a report that the current account surplus amounted to DKK 5.5 billion in October, up from DKK 3.1 billion surplus in a year ago. However, the current transfers showed a deficit of DKK 2.5 billion.
 
In the August to October period, the current account surplus was DKK 8.6 billion.
 
FINLAND
 
Helsinki's OMX rounded off the day at 6,239.68, up 1.07% and one of the best performing European markets Friday.
 
Workers in the finance industry will begin strike action next Monday.
 
The industrial action follows the rejection by unions of a compromise proposal to resolve a dispute over salaries and terms of work.
 
The Federation of Finnish Financial Services FKL said that although no teller service will be available at bank counters, cash dispensers, essential online services and card transactions should continue to function normally. Salaries, pensions and social support payments will also be deposited into customers' accounts as usual.
 
The Finnish Social Insurance Institute Kela previously indicated that pension and disability benefit payments normally due on December 14th would be paid on December 11th.
 
On Wednesday Suora, which represents in the finance, insurance, gaming and alcohol sectors; Rahoitusleijonat, which represents Sampo Bank employees and the Federation of Professional and Managerial Staff YTN, turned down a proposal put forward by the state labour mediator, claiming that they were not satisfied with the proposed salary increases.
 
"We wanted to apply the regular sectoral contract negotiations based on our specific needs and salary capabilities, so that we would get good results from the banks in addition to salary increases that are rightfully due to workers," explained Suora President Tarja Lankila.
 
Representing the employer across the bargaining table, the Federation of Finnish Financial Services was prepared to accept the offer. Heikki Vitie, Chair of FKL's Labour Market Board said he was disappointed by the outcome of the negotiations.
 
"We hoped the labour representatives would have shouldered their responsibilities in these difficult economic circumstances. The offer was the most reasonable from every point of view, and would have allowed us to safeguard industrial peace in the sector," he said during a briefing.
 
Some 30,000 workers in the financial sector will down their pens in the industrial action, including supervisors, specialists and professional staff.
 
Finland's industrial production rose 2.2% month-on-month in October, the Statistics Finland said Thursday. It follows a 1.3% drop in September. A year ago, production was down 1.9%.
 
On an annual basis, industrial output was down 18.9% in October, slightly slower than the 22.7% decline recorded in the previous month.
 
Industrial output has been falling since November last year.
Outotec Oyj of Finland has Friday acquired 19.9% of the issued share capital of Ausmelt at a price of 85 cents per share from interests associated with Dr John Floyd.
 
Dr Floyd is the inventor of Ausmelt's top submerged lance (TSL) smelting technology and founder of the Ausmelt business. He is deputy chairman of Ausmelt.
 
Outotec is a leading global provider of process solutions, technologies and services for the mining and metallurgical industries. Outotec's technologies and services cover the whole production chain of processing minerals to metals. With a history of over 100 years in its antecedent metal companies, Outokumpu and Lurgi Metallurgie, Outotec is a major force in the global mining and metallurgical industry.
 
SPAIN
 
The IBEX in Madrid finished the week at 11,616.00, up 0.18%.
 
Wednesday, rating agency Standard & Poor's revised its credit rating outlook on Spain to negative from stable and affirmed the 'AA+' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term sovereign credit ratings. The agency said the country will experience a more pronounced and persistent deterioration in its public finances and a more prolonged period of economic weakness versus its peers.
 
"The change in the outlook stems from our expectation of significantly lower GDP growth and persistently high fiscal deficits relative to peers over the medium term, in the absence of more aggressive fiscal consolidation efforts and a stronger policy focus on enhancing medium-term growth prospects," Standard & Poor's credit analyst Trevor Cullinan said.
 
The agency warned that deflationary pressures could be more persistent in Spain than in most other Eurozone sovereigns. Such pressures would further slow the pace of fiscal consolidation in the medium term.
 
Spanish fashion retailer Inditex SA, the owner of Zara, beat forecasts Thursday with a 1% fall in net profit in the first nine months of the fiscal year, as its ambitious international expansion program pushed costs higher while sales stayed weak in its Spanish home market.
 
Europe's largest fashion retailer by revenue ahead of Hennes & Mauritz AB said net profit in the nine months to Oct. 31 fell to €831 million ($1.22 billion) from €843 million a year earlier. Revenue rose 6% to €7.76 billion from €7.35 billion. Operating costs increased 7.2% to €2.87 billion, mainly due to store expansion.
 
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected net profit of €814.8 million on revenue of €7.82 billion.
 
Inditex, owner of brands like Bershka, Stradivarius, Pull & Bear and Massimo Dutti, said sales between Aug. 1 and the first week of Dec. 6 rose 9% when measured in local currencies. Its top brand, Zara, recently rolled out a fall-winter collection dominated by dressy black garments for men and "romantic" Victorian style cream-colored shirts for women.
 
While it scaled down expansion this year due to the global economic downturn, the Galicia, Spain-based company still opened 266 stores in the first nine months of its fiscal year, of which 90 were opened in Asia. Recent launches include a new flagship store on Chicago's Michigan Avenue and one in Tokyo's trendy Shibuya district.
 
PORTUGAL
 
Lisbon's PSI General completed the day on 2,802.16, up 0.61%.
 
Portuguese infrastructure company Mota Engil SGPS said it is in talks to buy stakes in two Latin American companies as it seeks to diversify out of Portugal and into faster-growing economies.
 
In a regulatory filing, the company said its waste management unit, Mota-Engil Ambiente e Servicos, is finalizing negotiations to buy a 50% stake in a Brazilian peer. It didn't disclose the name of the company.
 
Mota Engil also said its construction unit is in talks to buy a builder in Mexico in association with Opway, an unlisted Portuguese builder. The filing came in response to local media reports about Mota Engil's interest in the region.
 
In a separate regulatory filing released late Wednesday, the company said it will spend a maximum of Eur30 million in its potential investments in Brazil and Mexico in 2010.
 
Statistics Portugal said in a report that the trade deficit stood at Eur 4.76 billion in the August to October period, narrowing from Eur 6.09 billion deficit recorded in the same period last year.
 
During the period, exports dropped 14.3% to Eur 7.65 billion, while imports declined 17.4% to Eur 12.41 billion.
 
They also announced that the industrial new orders decreased 21% year-on-year in the quarter ended in October, compared to the 25.5% fall in the quarter ended in September.
 
Industrial new orders in internal market fell 14.5% annually in the three months ended in October, slower than the 19.8% fall in September. At the same time, new orders in external market fell 27.1% versus 31% decline in the previous period.
 
The gross domestic product or GDP increased 0.7% sequentially in the third quarter, faster than the 0.5% growth seen in the previous quarter.
 
The GDP in third quarter was revised from 0.9% increase reported initially.
 
Year-on-year, the GDP decreased 2.5% in the third quarter, compared to the 3.7% fall in the preceding quarter. The third quarter GDP was revised from 2.4% decline estimated earlier.
 
ITALY
 
Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index gained for a second day, adding 25.84, or 0.1%, to 22,411.51 in Milan. The gauge fell 2.2% this week.
 
Atlantia rose for the first time this week, adding 27 cents, or 1.5%, to 17.8 Euros. Europe's largest toll-highway operator said it completed a private placement of corporate bonds worth 20 billion Yen ($219 million).
 
The bonds have a maturity of 29 years and pay a fixed semi- annual coupon, the company said. "The cash raised as a result of the issue will be used to meet the funding requirements of Autostrade per l'Italia in connection with the investment plan envisaged in its concession agreement," Banca Imi said in a note. The brokerage kept a "buy" rating.
 
Autogrill, the world's biggest manager of airport restaurants, advanced the most in a week, adding 20.5 cents, or 2.4%, to 8.66 Euros. Intermonte Sim SpA reiterated an "outperform" recommendation on the stock, citing BAA Ltd.'s airports traffic data for November.
 
Banca Popolare di Milano slid 6 cents, or 1.2%, to 5.06 Euros. Financial stocks were the worst performers in Europe, led by Greek banks. Greece and Ireland are among countries in an "intolerable" economic situation, which may lead to bailouts or even an exit from the Euro area by the end of next year, according to Standard Bank Plc.
 
Banco Popolare fell 14 cents, or 2.6%, to 5.31 Euros. UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) retreated 3.25 cents, or 1.4%, to 2.27 Euros.
 
Exprivia advanced 5.8 cents, or 5.1%, to 1.19 Euros, the highest in almost a month. The developer of computer software said Thursday after the market closed that it won an 11 million-Euro ($16.2 million) contract to supply an integrated system for managing data and images in radiology and cardiology for the hospitals of Asti and Nizza Monferrato.
 
Italcementi, Italy's largest cement maker, rose 25 cents, or 2.7%, to 9.44 Euros. Turkey's domestic cement sales will increase 3% to 5% in 2010, in line with expected economic growth, Vatan reported, citing Adnan Ignebekcili, head of the country's cement producers' association.
 
Separately, Carillion Plc, Britain's second-largest construction company, advanced after forecasting earnings will increase.
 
Piaggio & C. added 3.4 cents, or 1.9%, to 1.85 Euros. Equita Sim SpA increased its price estimate on the scooter-maker by 4% to 2.28 Euros, saying in a note that "short-term news flow should be boosted by growth in Vietnam" and the "strong Indian market." The brokerage reiterated a "buy" rating.
 
Prysmian increased 30 cents, or 2.6%, to 11.7 Euros, a second day of gains. Shares of the world's second-biggest cable maker advanced as metal prices rose.
 
GREECE
 
The ATHEX Composite in Athens ended a tumultuous week at 2,160.68, down 2.41% for the day.
 
The Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece's Long-term foreign currency and local currency Issuer Default Ratings on Tuesday, citing concerns over the medium-term outlook for public finances. It was the first time in ten years a leading ratings agency put Greece below a rating of A grade.
 
The rating agency lowered long-term foreign currency and local currency IDRs to 'BBB+' from 'A-', with negative outlook. The European Central Bank's relaxed rules currently allows the bonds rated 'BBB-' as collateral for loans. The Short-term foreign currency IDR was downgraded to 'F2' from 'F1'. The Country Ceiling was affirmed at 'AAA', in line with the common country ceiling for Euro area sovereigns.
 
The agency estimate that the government debt burden would possibly increase to close to 130% of GDP before stabilizing. At the same time, the agency holds the view that the government's target to narrow the fiscal deficit by 3.6 pp of GDP to 9.1% in 2010 is achievable.
 
"Fitch recognises the efforts that the government has made to improve fiscal transparency and understands that further measures will be announced in January 2010 to support the reduction in the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013 as recommended by the EC under the EDP, including supplementary fiscal measures to underpin realization of the 2010 Budget deficit target," the agency said.
 
Earlier this week, Standard & Poor's has kept Greece's A- long-term sovereign rating on a negative credit watch. The rating agency said the Greek government's fiscal consolidation plans are unlikely to secure a sustained reduction in fiscal deficits and the public debt burden.
 
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said there is "absolutely" no risk that the country will default on its debt, seeking to ease the concerns of investors after Greece had its credit rating cut on Tuesday.
 
"We're moving swiftly to reassure citizens and markets that we're moving in the right direction," Papaconstantinou said. The minister also said that Greece will not seek a European Union aid package.
 
Greek 10-year government bonds fell. The difference in yield, or spread, over German bunds widened 7 basis points to 228 basis points as of 8:43 am in London. Greece's Athens Stock Exchange General Index declined for a third straight day, falling 2.3%, with National Bank of Greece SA, the largest lender, losing 4.4% to 17.4 Euros.
 
Papaconstantinou said there is no risk to the Greek banking system as the banks are "fundamentally sound".
 
Greece's socialist government, elected in October, plans to cut the budget deficit to 9.1% of gross domestic product next year from 12.7% this year. Papaconstantinou, an economist with studies from the London School of Economics and 10 years at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is fending off criticism from the European Union and investors that he is not doing enough.
 
The Greek government budget plans, including one-off measures and a partial freeze on public-sector pay, "are unlikely by themselves to alter Greece's medium-term fiscal dynamics" given the prospects of high deficits, debt and sluggish economic growth, S&P said.
 
Former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter said Greece may be the first major country in the European Union to default on its debts since World War II.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....

Thomas Cook and Tui Travel hit their highest levels in two months on Friday as analysts played down growth concerns. UK Markets

The travel agents were in demand on the back of "outperform" advice from Cazenove.
Thomas Cook rose 3.9% at 227p and Tui was up 3.4% at 259p.

 
The wider market edged higher for a second day, with the FTSE 100 closing 17.2 points, or 0.3%, higher at 5,261.5.

 
The rally trimmed the index's loss for the week to 1.1%.

However, trading was light with blue-chip volume the lowest since Lloyds Banking Group began its rights issue process more than a fortnight ago.
Lloyds was the day's biggest faller, slipping 3.4% to 56¼p ahead of Monday's placing of the rights issue's rump.

Royal Bank of Scotland followed, losing 2.5% to 30½p.
Barclays slid 1% to 288p after Cazenove cut forecasts to reflect a weaker-than-expected November for Barclays Capital.

 
Mining stocks were back in favour as a sliding Dollar and stronger-than-expected Chinese output data lifted the copper price for the first time in seven days. Xstrata took on 1.5% to £10.47, Vedanta Resources gained 3.2% to £23.90 and Kazakhmys was 2.2% higher at £12.53.

BarCap was recommending clients stay overweight on miners for 2010, with Xstrata its preferred pick. "Mining equity valuations in general imply that the market is still not fully discounting the earnings growth potential for this sector and the sustainability of relatively high commodity prices," it said.

WPP rose 4% to 613½p following investor meetings this week. Chief executive Sir Martin Sorrell said November had been significantly better than the rest of 2009 and suggested organic growth would return from the second quarter of 2010.

UBS said the guidance "underpins but does not upgrade consensus numbers".

On a more speculative tack, continued deal gossip lifted International Power by 2.8% to 295p.

Talk of interest from GDF Suez this week pushed the cost of insuring International Power's debt to an 18-month low. But, with GDF's move said to be stalled by the French state, its main shareholder, International Power could yet be tempted to seek out a blocking transaction, traders speculated.

London Stock Exchange was down 2.7% to 694½p. Citigroup, repeating "sell" advice, argued that new LSE chief executive Xavier Rolet had been playing a sensible game with a bad hand.

LSE shares, up 40% this year, are ignoring strategy execution risk, it said.

Diageo edged 0.7% higher to £10.53 after chief executive Paul Walsh exercised and sold share options for a £342,000 profit. The trade damped recent talk that Diageo could be considering a big acquisition.

Traders also noted a £3m share sale by the chief executive of Shire, down 0.4% to £11.59.

Among the mid-caps, Carphone Warehouse rose 1.1% to 188p after the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation declared a maiden 3% stake.

Trinity Mirror fell 2.9% to 146¼p after uninspiring November circulation figures for the Daily Mirror and Daily Record, both down more than 10% year-on-year.

Sales of the Daily Mail were down just 0.7%, allowing Daily Mail & General Trust to hold steady at 404p.

Renovo Group, the scar reduction technology group, moved higher on Friday after KBC Peel Hunt upgraded it to "buy" and set an 80p target price.

Dragon Oil dipped 3.4% to 379¾p after shareholders voted down a 445p-a-share cash offer from its biggest shareholder, the Emirates National Oil Company.

Hallin Marine Subsea International jumped 81.9% to 226½p after recommending a 233p a share cash offer from US company Superior Energy Services.

Coffeeheaven, the Aim-listed operation of coffee bars in central Europe, rose 13.9% to 22½p, after revealing it was in advanced negotiations with Whitbread over a 24p-a-share offer.

Traders said news of the talks could flush out another bidder.

Software group Imaginatik climbed 10.3% to 8p of news of a two-year contract extension with property and casualty insurance provider Chubb.
 

Baltic Oil Terminals rose 21.8% to 16¾p on news that over 60,000 tonnes of goods was shipped through the Rosbunker terminal during October.

Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Tokyo stocks rose sharply Friday as upbeat Chinese economic data lifted construction equipment manufacturers such as Komatsu, as well as other China-sensitive shares such as Kyocera and Honda Motor on hopes for improving product demand.
 
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 245.05 points, or 2.5%, to close at 10,107.87, its intraday high.
 
The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues rose 14.67 points, or 1.7%, to 888.57, with 31 of 33 subindexes ending in positive territory.
 
Trading volume was robust at over 2.7 billion shares as Dec. Nikkei 225 futures and options also settled.
 
Chinese industrial production rose 19.2% from a year earlier in November, while imports were also up for the first time in 13 months.
 
Most of the Nikkei's gains came after the data appeared.
Analysts say the short-term performance of Tokyo stocks will likely depend in large part on data such as the tankan.
 
Chinese economic performance figures helped push up exporter shares, especially those with China exposure.
 
Komatsu rose 3.4% to Y1,867, Hitachi Construction Machinery added 4.7% to Y2,320, Kyocera gained 5.4% to Y7,880, and Honda Motor rose 2.7% to Y3,010.
 
Sapporo Holdings also rose 4.3% to Y459 as investors welcomed the brewer's announcement that it will enter Vietnam's beer market by buying a 65% stake in Kronenbourg Vietnam for about $25 million.
 
 
Heavy industry and railway infrastructure-related stocks surged after the Nikkei reported during the stock trading session that the Vietnamese government has officially decided to adopt Japanese "shinkansen" bullet train technology for a high-speed railway connecting Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
 
Nippon Sharyo, which makes train cars, jumped 9.8% to Y551, Kawasaki Heavy Industries gained 6.3% to Y235, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries rose 5.6% to Y321.
 
 
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group dropped 1.5% to Y455, one trading session before the Dec. 14 to Dec. 16 pricing window for its new equity share offer opens. The firm aims to raise up to Y1.056 trillion through the transaction. Shares have lost a total of 9.5% over the last three sessions, all on very heavy volume.
 
March Nikkei 225 futures ended up 270 points, or 2.7%, at 10,100 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.
 
 
For the week, the Nikkei added 0.9%, and is up 8.2% for Dec. Year-to-date, stocks remain up 14%.
 
 
SOUTH KOREA
 
South Korean shares extended their winning streak into a third straight day Friday, led by brokerages and steel makers, but profit-taking by local retail investors capped gains.
 
 
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, reversed from an earlier 0.7% loss to end 4.17 points, or 0.3%, higher at 1656.90, the highest closing since Oct. 26.
 
Foreigners and domestic institutions were net buyers of shares worth KRW101.8 billion and KRW239.1 billion, respectively, while local retail investors sold a net KRW296.8 billion.
 
Samsung Securities advanced 3% to KRW65,100, Daewoo Securities climbed 4.7% to KRW21,100, and Kyobo Securities jumped 10.4% to KRW11,150.
 
 
Posco advanced 2.8% to KRW586,000, and Hyundai Steel jumped 5% to KRW81,900 on the upbeat outlook for steel sector.
 
Hynix Semiconductor edged up 0.2% at KRW20,900, and Kia Motors added 0.3% to KRW19,050.
 
 
Hana Financial Group ended off 0.7% at KRW35,650, and SK Telecom closed flat at KRW176,000, showing muted reaction to news the board of Hana Financial Friday approved a plan to sell 49% of its credit card unit to SK Telecom for slightly more than KRW400 billion.
 
The birth of a SK Telecom-Hana Financial credit card joint venture is expected to create synergies to both firms, but the news has been well flagged, said analysts.
 
Most bank stocks fell on profit-taking with KB Financial Group falling 1.4% to KRW61,700, and Shinhan Financial Group dropping 1.6% to KRW45,650.
 
 
HONG KONG
 
Hong Kong shares staged a comeback Friday due to bargain hunting, following five sessions of declines.
 
 
The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 202.07 points, or 0.93%, to 21,902.11 after trading between 21,796.83 and 22,143.84 during the session.
 
The index is down 2.6% for the whole of the week.
Market volume totaled HK$68.95 billion, down from HK$82.03 billion Thursday.
 
Analysts said they remain optimistic in the long term about local shares, though investors may sell stocks to lock in profit before the year's end.
 
Index heavyweight HSBC rose 1.7% to HK$90.15 after falling 5.5% in the past five sessions.
 
 
Hong Kong property developers were among the biggest gainers.
Cheung Kong rose 2.0% to HK$100.50 after the Hong Kong stock exchange said Thursday company Chairman Li Ka-shing raised his stake again Monday to 41.22% from 41.16%, fueling optimism over the city's property market.
 
 
Henderson Land gained 1.3% to HK$57.80 and Sun Hung Kai Properties rose 2.5% to HK$118.30.
 
 
Fashion retailer Esprit was 2.7% higher at HK$53.90 after Chairman Heinz Krogner-Kornalik said Thursday he expects the operating environment in Europe to return to normal in the second half of next year.
 
Mainland lenders continued to underperform because of concerns they may have to raise cash if the government asks them to boost their capital adequacy ratio or reserves next year to guard against an increase in bad loans.
 
 
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China rose 0.6% to HK$6.45, China Construction Bank was up 0.7% at HK$6.84, and Bank of Communications was flat at HK$9.14.
 
CHINA
 
 
China's shares ended marginally lower Friday as government measures to curb speculation in the property market continued to weaken developers, while the market showed little reaction to data showing a stronger economic recovery in the country.
 
 
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended down 0.2% at 3247.32. The index fell 2.1% for the week.
 
The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.1% to 1218.74.
Trading volume for the Shanghai Composite Index shrunk for the fifth consecutive session to CNY110 billion ($16.1 billion) from CNY115.0 billion Thursday.
 
 
Analysts said they expect the benchmark index to continue consolidating in its recent band of 3200-3300 in the near term as the end of the year approaches.
 
 
The market rose to a session high midmorning after data issued around 0200 GMT showed November's consumer prices rose 0.6%, the first increase since January, and new RMB loans came in higher than economists' expectations at CNY294.8 billion.
 
 
But the market lost most of the gains by midday after the government said November's exports continued to fall, down 1.2% from a year earlier, compared with the 2.1% year-on-year rise economists expected, though the decline narrowed from the previous month.
 
 
Food, consumer goods producers and retailers were among the strongest performers due to the rebound in the CPI.
 
Shenzhen Agriculture Products was up 2.2% at CNY13.80 and Sichuan Changhong Electric rose 2.4% to CNY6.71.
 
 
Steel producers were broadly higher after Baosteel Group Corp., China's largest steelmaker, said it raised January prices for a range of products by CNY300-CNY600 a metric ton.
 
China's decision Thursday to slap duties on certain steel imports from the US and Russia will also support domestic steel companies, analysts said.
Baoshan Iron & Steel was up 0.6% at CNY9.17 and Maanshan Iron & Steel rose 2.0% to CNY5.17.
 
 
Property developers slumped on concerns over falling housing demand, after China said late Wednesday sales of homes by individuals will be exempt from tax only after at least five years of ownership, up from two years now.
 
China Vanke was down 1.0% at CNY11.79 and Gemdale fell 0.8% to CNY15.51
 
 
TAIWAN
 
 
Taiwan's share prices closed higher Friday, with the weighted index, the market's key barometer, increasing 117.16 points, or 1.52%, to close at the day's high of 7,795.07.
 
 
The local bourse opened at 7,709.96 and hit a low of 7,700.76 during the session.
A total of 4.65 billion shares changed hands on market turnover of NT$134.75 billion (US$4.18 billion).
 
 
All of the eight major stock categories gained ground, with foodstuff issues moving up the most at 3.13%.
 
Paper and pulp issues advanced 1.79%, plastics and chemicals shares gained 1.57%, and machinery and electronics shares rose 1.5%.
 
Construction issues increased 1.39%, banking and financial shares moved up 1.03%, textile stocks rose 0.96% and cement stocks increased 0.94%.
 
Gainers outnumbered losers 2,037 to 710, with 215 stocks remaining unchanged.
 
 
Foreign institutional investors were net buyers of NT$516 million in shares.
 
THE PHILIPPINES
 
Philippine share prices continued to post modest gains for the second straight day on Friday.
 
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index rose 24.56 points or about 0.82% to 3,031.13 while the all-shares index jumped 12.31 points or about 0.66% to 1,883.
 
Except for mining and oil, which skidded about 0.31%, all five other sectoral indices closed in the positive territory.
 
Property led the advance with a 1.69-percent rise, followed by financials 1.54-percent climb.
Gainers outnumbered losers 61 to 36 while 72 stocks closed unchanged.
Volume traded reached 1.29 billion stocks worth about P2.40 billion.
 
Main movers for the market include Bank of the Philippine Island, the country's third-largest lender in terms of assets, and property giant Ayala Land.
 
 
Cornering 21.35% of the total trading value for the day, holding firm SM Investments Corp. was the most active stock. Its shares closed flat at P307.50 each.
 
Mining firm Century Peak Metal Holdings Corp. was steady at P6.60.
 
Dominant carrier Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. climbed P5 or 0.1908% to P2,625.
Developer Megaworld Corp. leaped P0.02 or 1.3889% to P1.46 while competitor ALIv added P0.25 or 2.1739% to close at P11.75.
 
SINGAPORE
 
Singapore shares closed 0.68% higher on Friday thanks to gains in DBS bank and Singapore Airlines, dealers said.
 
The blue-chip Straits Times Index advanced 18.89 points to 2,800.75.
Volume was 1.26 billion shares.
 
Gainers led losers 239 to 220.
Life sciences firm Transcu Group jumped 3.7% after it said US fund manager Yorkville Advisors planned to invest $51.8 million in the company.
 
 
Datapulse Technology Limited on Friday reported net profit for the fiscal first quarter ended October 31, 2009 fell 32% to S$3.94 million.
 
Datapulse, a provider of CD and DVD services in the Asia Pacific region, saw revenue for the period fall by 30% to S$20.5 million from $29.3 million due to weaker demand for media storage products and services.
 
Mainboard-listed retailer RSH on Friday said it has been given more time by the Singapore Exchange to restore a public float requirement.
 
 
It now has until December 31 to ensure that public shareholders hold at least 10% of its total issued share capital.
It added that the reason for the regulatory waiver is that one of its substantial shareholders will be placing out some of its shares in the firm to a third party.
 
The move is to ensure the percentage of securities in public hands will be raised to at least 10%.
 
 
RSH has asked for more time for the deal to go through.
 
MALAYSIA
 
 
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended mixed, but the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index ended 0.10 of a point higher at 1,260.0, as investors took the cue from the overnight gains on Wall Street, dealers said.
 
 
The index opened 0.34 of a point higher at 1,260.40 but came off slightly on profit-taking activities, particularly in lower liners and small caps.
 
A dealer said buying activities were limited as most players and fund managers had abstained from the market ahead of Christmas and New Year holidays.
 
The FBM Emas Index added 4.9 points to 8,393.92, the FBM Top 100 Index rose 6.14 points to 8,209.30 and the FBM 70 Index gained 28.59 points to 8,105.87 but the FBM ACE Index declined 26.25 points to 4,240.20.
 
The Plantation Index rose 9.96 points to 6,246.90, the Finance Index advanced 39.74 points to 10,889.65 but the Industrial Index declined 2.4 points to 2,670.81.
 
Decliners outpaced advancers 291 to 289 while 241 counters were unchanged and 465 others were untraded.
 
Volume declined to 528.994 million shares, worth RM750.405 million, compared with Thursday's 572.191 million shares valued at RM818.013 million.
 
Affin Holdings-Warrant 3, among actives, rose 3.5 sen to 32.5 sen but LCL Corp declined 10 sen to 22 sen and DSC Solutions eased 6.5 sen to 61.5 sen.
 
Among bluechips, Sime Darby and Maxis added one sen each to RM8.95 and RM5.37, respectively, while Maybank rose three sen to RM6.76 but CIMB fell two sen to RM12.84.
 
Turnover on the Main Market increased slightly to 444.771 million shares, worth RM721.677 million, compared with Thursday's 434.287 million shares, valued at RM761.950 million.
 
The ACE Market volume declined sharply to 54.918 million units, valued at RM22.116 million, from 111.304 million units, worth RM49.808 million, previously.
 
 
Warrants rose to 26.426 million shares, worth RM5.225 million, from 24.21 million shares, valued at RM4.357 million, on Thursday.
 
 
INDONESIA
 
 
In Jakarta, the Jakarta Composite Index rose to its highest since 20 October and ended up 1.3%, with top telecom firm Telekomunikasi Indonesia rising 3.7%.
 
 
Top automotive distributor Astra International up 2
.3%.
 
 
THAILAND
 
 
Thailand's benchmark stock index the SET ended up 1.3% at its highest since 4 December as worries about domestic political instability eased a little and local institutions collected cheap blue chips for their portfolios.
 
 
Bangkok's SET ended the week at 703.43.
 
Belgium's Solvay SA group is to make an offer worth 3.64 billion baht ($110 million) for the shares it does not already own in Thai PVC maker Vinythai.
 
 
Its Dutch subsidiary, Solvay Chemicals and Plastics Holding B.V., would buy Vinythai shares at 6.15 baht ($0.186) each, just above the last price traded before the announcement of 6.10 baht, Thailand's second largest PVC maker said in a statement.
 
 
PTT Chemical, Thailand's biggest olefins maker, owns 24.98% of Vinythai and Chareon Pokphand Holding of Chareon Pokphand Group, Thailand's top agribusiness conglomerate, has 9.56%.
Vinythai, which has capacity to produce 280,000 tonnes of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) a year, competes with market leader Thai Plastic and Chemicals PCL, controlled by top industrial conglomerate Siam Cement.
Solvay transferred its 49.99% stake in Vinythai to Solvay Chemicals in August as part of a reorganisation of its global business.
Solvay agreed to sell its drugs unit to Abbott Labs in September for 4.5 billion Euros ($6.6 billion) cash with the aim of reinvesting in its chemicals and plastics operations.
 
Top coal miner rose 1.5% to 530 baht, reversing its losses over the previous two sessions, as several brokers said they were bullish on Banpu's outlook due to rising coal prices in November and a likely increase in electricity revenue.
 
PTT Exploration rose 1.5% to 133 baht on expectations oil prices would increase next year and boost its earnings, brokers said.
 
Broker Capital Nomura Securities said it expected oil prices would increase to $72 per barrel in 2010 and $75 per barrel in 2011 in response to rising demand and the global economic recovery.
 
 
INDIA
 
 
Indian shares pared early gains and closed lower Friday, weighed down by a slower-than-expected growth in October industrial output.
 
The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-share Sensitive Index lost 70.28 points, or 0.4%, to end at 17,119.03.
 
It had risen as much as 0.9% to 17,351.71 during the day.
While the industrial output data, or IIP, was fairly robust, the market was expecting much higher growth.
 
The recent GDP data was a positive surprise and that may have fed some sort of optimism on the IIP side as well.
India's index for industrial production grew 10.3% from a year earlier, but came in below the 10.5% median forecast of 13 economists.
 
India's rainfall was 23% below normal--the worst in 37 years--in the quarter to September.
 
A technical analysis by Dow Jones Newswires suggests that the benchmark Sensex could trade in the 16,300-17,600 range next week.
 
On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty fell 0.3%, or 17.35 points, to 5,117.30 after it touched a 2009 high of 5,182.55 earlier in the day.
 
Total traded volume on the BSE rose to INR52.15 billion from Thursday's INR45.75 billion. Decliners outnumbered gainers 1,754 to 1,084, while 74 stocks were unchanged.
 
Banks were weak, with private lender ICICI Bank losing 1.5% to end at INR863.25, and State Bank of India closing 1.3% lower at INR2,265.75.
 
Mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp. fell 1.0% to INR2,693.15.
 
Bharti Airtel, the country's largest mobile phone operator by users, fell 3.2% to INR331.35 on profit-taking following the 14.2% jump it saw this month.
 
Auto maker Mahindra & Mahindra slipped 1.0% to INR1,029.85, while cigarette maker ITC ended 0.9% lower at INR252.45.
 
Bharat Heavy Electricals, India's largest power equipment maker by sales, jumped 3.1% to INR2,364 on buying by foreign funds, dealers said.
 
Among non-Sensex issues, travel and leisure company Cox & Kings (India), which debuted Friday, soared 29.1% to INR426.05.
 
AUSTRALIA
 
The Australian share market ended Friday in positive territory on strong economic data out of China, which sparked optimism about the pace of the global economic recovery.
 
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed up 28.5 points, or 0.6%, at 4635.2, on light share trading volumes.
 
Investors were encouraged by data that showed Chinese industrial production rose 19.2% on year in November as well as positive overnight leads from the US on the jobless report and a narrowing US trade deficit.
 
In the mining sector, bellwether BHP Billiton rose 1.4% to A$40.50 while Rio Tinto gained 0.5% to A$70.18.
 
The banks were mixed with Westpac down 0.9% to A$23.56, National Australia Bank up 0.8% to A$28.21, Commonwealth Bank flat down 1 cent at A$52.50 and ANZ Banking Group down 0.9% to A$21.30.
 
 
Looking ahead, investors were awaiting November retail sales figures due in the US later Friday.
 
 
 
In individual company news, Karoon Gas Australia shares bounced Friday on renewed expectations that its Browse Basin joint venture with ConocoPhillips has struck gas at its Poseidon-2 appraisal well.
 
An energy analyst helped drive the rally by supporting comments made late Thursday by a person familiar with the drilling campaign that early indications suggest that the discovery is significant.
 
Karoon ended up 6.8% to A$8.20.
 
 
NEW ZEALAND
 
New Zealand shares were flat Friday despite strength in influential markets such as the US and Australia.
 
 
The market has been flat all week, in full wind-down mode for the holiday season already.
 
The NZX-50 Index closed down 4 points at 3127.98. The market has lost 0.6% for the week.
 
 
The more than one US cent rise in the New Zealand Dollar in the aftermath of the central bank's change in monetary policy stance Thursday made local stocks less attractive to offshore investors.
 
The bank said it may begin the hiking rates mid-2010 against previous guidance of the second half of 2010.
 
Auckland Airport rose 2.2% to NZ$1.90 in response to a nudge up in its profit guidance for fiscal 2010, saying that the improved outlook reflected a lift in passenger traffic.
 
The company, which is New Zealand's main international gateway, said net profit for the year to June 30, 2010 will be at the high end of the previously announced range of approximately NZ$93 million to NZ$100 million.
 
Bellwether Telecom Corp fell 2.5% to NZ$2.35.
 
The other heavyweight stock, Fletcher Building, eked out a 0.4% gain to NZ$7.78, helped by the more positive tone in the US where it has exposure to the construction sector.
 
 
Stock exchange operator NZX Ltd. said that following a 29% fall in the price of small rural-services company Allied Farmers's stock Thursday, it had referred the matter to the Securities Commission watchdog.
 
There was further heavy turnover in Allied Friday, which is trying to take over much-larger stressed finance company Hanover Group in a NZ$400 million deal.
 
 
Allied shares closed down 5% at NZ$0.19 with investment company Guinness Peat Group rumored to be the seller because of disquiet about the proposed Hanover deal.
 
GPG did not return calls seeking comment.
 
 
Fisher & Pakyel Appliances rose 1.8% to NZ$0.58 responding positively to the appointment of Stuart Broadhurst as chief executive, a position he has been filling since the former chief executive John Bongard stepped down for health reasons in September. 
 
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....

 CommoditiesUS crude oil prices faded below the key $70-a-barrel mark this week and gold slid as investors trimmed positions ahead of year-end.

Nymex January West Texas Intermediate fell 96 cents to $69.58 a barrel, down 7.8% this week, under pressure from elevated levels of US crude stocks and soft demand for petrol and heating oil.

 
The International Energy Agency described US demand as "stubbornly sluggish" with growth of just 0.7% expected next year.

It highlighted this as a key risk to its forecast for an improvement in global oil consumption growth in 2010.

 
The energy watchdog of the western world revised its 2010 global consumption forecast up 130,000b/d to 86.3m b/d, an increase of 1.5m b/d, or 1.7%, compared with this year.

By 2014, the IEA expects global oil demand to have increased to almost 91m b/d, averaging growth of 1.2% annually over the next five years.

All of the demand growth will be generated by non-OECD countries, which will account for 51% of global consumption by 2014.

ICE January Brent lost 36 cents at $71.50 a barrel, down 7.8% this week.

Gold fell 1.6% to $1,114 a troy ounce, down 4.1% over the week.

 
Base metals were boosted on Friday by strong Chinese output and trade data for November.

Aluminium hit the highest levels of the year at $2,280 a tonne, up 6.1% this week, helped by short-covering and concerns about potential supply disruptions in Europe.

Dealers also noted that some hedge funds had been moving out of their long copper/short aluminium or nickel bets.

Copper fell 2.7% to $6,850 a tonne over the week.
Cocoa prices hit 25-year highs on supply concerns with Liffe May cocoa up 1.7% to £2,285 a tonne over the week.
 

Supply concerns also pushed sugar prices higher.

ICE March raw sugar gained 3.6% to 23.33 cents a Pound this week with Brazilian mills reported to be renegotiating delivery contracts with trading houses after production fell short of expectations this season.

Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Euro suffered this week on concerns over the health of the finances of several of the single currency's member states.
 
Focus on sovereign risk and the possibility of a default from heavily indebted countries has intensified following Dubai's announcement of a debt standstill last month.
 
Indeed, the Euro suffered as Fitch, the ratings agency, cut Greece's credit rating this week and Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook on the rating of both Spain and Portugal.
 
The news highlighted budgetary problems in other Eurozone countries, such as Ireland, that are struggling with debt burdens and caused some to question the viability of the single currency and European Monetary Union.
 
 
I question the ability of countries such as Ireland and Greece to grow out of the current crisis. With interest rate cuts, exchange rate depreciation and significant fiscal support all off limits for these countries, it seems likely that bail-outs - or even pull-outs from the Euro - are likely.
 
 
Over the week, the Euro lost 1.7% to $1.4611 against the Dollar, fell 2.3% to Y131.01 against the Yen and dropped 0.4% to £0.9006 against the Pound.
 
 
The Pound lost ground elsewhere, however, as concerns also grew over the UK's fiscal situation.
 
The UK government's pre-Budget report focused concerns on the health of the country's finances, with Alistair Darling, the UK chancellor, doing little to address the rising fiscal deficit.
 
Over the week, the Pound fell 1.2% to $1.6220 against the Dollar and dropped 1.8% to Y145.53 against the Yen.
 
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was mixed, rising 1.8% to SFr1.0354 against the Swiss franc on the week, but losing ground against commodity-linked currencies.
 
The Dollar fell 0.2% to C$1.0540 against the Canadian Dollar and lost 0.1% to $0.9130 against the Australian Dollar.
 
But the New Zealand Dollar was the star performer, rising 1.2% to $0.7237 against the US Dollar on the week after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded a hawkish note after its policy meeting, suggesting that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.
 
The New Zealand Dollar also rose 0.7% to Y64.94 against the Yen on the week.
 
 
The Yen suffered last week after the US employment report came in much stronger than expected, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve might seek to abandon its ultra-loose monetary policy stance sooner than expected.
 
 
This weighed on the Yen as traders reasoned that rising US yields would lead to a switch from the Dollar to the Yen to fund carry trades, in which low-yielding currencies are sold to finance the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets elsewhere.
 
But the Japanese currency recovered this week as the difference in government bond yields between the US and Japan narrowed following a renewed pledge from Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, to keep US interest rates at low levels for an "extended period".
 
The Yen rose 0.6% to Y89.66 against the Dollar over the week.
 
 
Extending Thursday's uptrend, the South African Rand edged higher against the US Dollar during early trading on Friday. The Rand rose to a 3-day high of 7.4538 against the greenback before leveling off. This was up 2.3% from Wednesday's 12-day low of 7.6302 and 1.2% from Thursday's close of 7.543.
 
 
And not to change anything, I have left the RMB here in China until last.
 
The RMB edged lower against the US Dollar late Friday afternoon, retreating to the Dollar-RMB central parity rate after rising unexpectedly late Thursday.
 
 
On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar ended at CNY6.8276, up from Thursday's close of CNY6.8266.
 
It traded between CNY6.8270 and CNY6.8285.
The Dollar-RMB central parity rate was set at 6.8277, largely unchanged from 6.8276 Thursday. 
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's industrial production grew more than economists estimated in November, exports fell the least in 13 months and imports surged, confirming the nation's role as leader of the world recovery.
 
Factory output climbed 19.2% from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing. That was more than the 18.2% median estimate in a survey of 25 economists.
 
Exports slid 1.2%. Imports rose 26.7%.
 
 
New loans topped forecasts and money supply expanded by a record, extending a credit boom that may fuel asset bubbles and inflation and has prompted plans by lenders including Bank of China Ltd. to replenish capital.
 
The government this week adjusted its stimulus policies to curb property speculation, while extending subsidies for rural purchases of consumer goods and pledging a "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2010.
 
Consumer prices rose 0.6%, the first increase in 10 months, the statistics bureau said.
 
 
The Shanghai Composite Index swung between gains and losses Friday after climbing almost 80% this year.
 
Data released Thursday showed property prices rose by the most in 16 months in November.
 
China's growth accelerated to 8.9% in the third quarter on the record lending and a $586 billion, two-year stimulus package, helping Asia to lead the recovery from the global economic slump.
 
Friday's figures showed Southeast Asian demand aiding exports.
 
Shipments to the region jumped 20.8% as those to the US and Europe fell at a slower pace.
 
The industrial output number was boosted by the low base in November 2008, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. intensified the global financial crisis.
 
Steel product output reached a record last month and power generation rose by the most in five years.
In contrast, India reported a lower-than-forecast 10.3% gain in industrial production Friday, partly because of weakness in electricity output.
 
 
In China, urban fixed-asset investment gained 32.1% in the January-to-November period from a year earlier after climbing 33.1% through October, Friday's data showed.
 
Forecasts for China to maintain the fastest growth of any major economy are encouraging companies to expand.
 
The nation's gross domestic product will expand 9.3% next year, according to a survey of economists.
 
 
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the country's biggest refiner, said this month that it plans to expand the capacity of its second-biggest oil-processing plant by a third.
 
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's largest maker of luxury cars, said last month that it will build a new factory worth 5 billion RMB ($732 million) to tap an auto market set to overtake the US as the world's largest this year.
 
Imports climbed the most in 16 months because of rising commodity prices, the boost to domestic demand from stimulus policies and the low base in November 2008.
 
The trade surplus narrowed to $19.1 billion.
Twelve-month non-deliverable RMB forwards slipped 0.2% to 6.6665 per Dollar as of 2:22 p.m. in Hong Kong after the improvement in exports was smaller than economists forecast.
 
Retail sales climbed 15.8% in November from a year earlier, compared with 16.2% in October, according to the statistics bureau.
 
Producer prices fell 2.1%. New loans were 294.8 billion RMB. M2 money supply grew 29.7%.
 
The State Council said this week that the government will re-impose a sales tax on homes sold within five years after cutting the period to two years in January.
 
It also extended subsidies for rural consumer purchases, while scaling back tax breaks for some car buyers.
 
 
China's banking regulator plans to slow new lending to between 7 trillion RMB and 8 trillion RMB next year, a person familiar with the matter said this week.
 
In the first 11 months of this year, loans reached 9.21 trillion RMB.
 
The government is wrestling with overcapacity and excess production in some industries, such as steel, where an oversupply is depressing profits for mills including Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.
 
************************************
 
China is likely to report its first gain in overseas shipments in 13 months, beginning a rebound that may encourage the world's second-biggest exporting nation to let the RMB strengthen next year.
 
China's exports may jump 20% in the first quarter of 2010 because of the global recovery and comparisons with this year's low base, according to Macquarie Securities Ltd. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.
 
RMB forwards suggest that the currency will appreciate about 2.6% against the Dollar in the next 12 months even after Premier Wen Jiabao last month rebuffed Europe's calls for gains.
 
China had "good reason" to depreciate its currency during the global financial crisis as exports fell and chose instead to keep the RMB stable, central bank Deputy Governor Zhu Min said at a forum in Beijing Thursday.
 
He echoed Wen's comments to European leaders, saying a stable RMB aids a world recovery.
"We took the same policy as we did in the Asian financial crisis; we decided to stabilize the renminbi exchange rate," the central banker said, using another word for the RMB.
 
November's data may show a return to inflation as China's economy rebounds from the slowest growth in almost a decade and food prices climb.
 
Consumer prices rose 0.4% from a year earlier, the survey of economists showed.
Industrial output gained 18.2%, the most in more than two years, and retail sales climbed 16.5%, economists estimated.
 
Banks may have extended 250 billion RMB ($36.6 billion) of local-currency loans, compared with 253 billion RMB in October.
 
Urban fixed-asset investment may have increased 33% in the first 11 months of 2009 from a year earlier as stimulus spending and unprecedented bank lending drove a recovery.
 
Citic Securities Co. said on 8 December that China's textile and apparel companies may "outperform" as domestic sales are sustained and exports recover, recommending companies including Fujian Septwolves Industry Co., Luthai Textile Co. and Youngor Group Co.
China's trade surplus, export gains and a currency effectively pegged to the Dollar may exacerbate trade tensions.
 
China faces US tariffs on tires and European Union duties on screws and bolts and is investigating imports of US autos and poultry.
 
China was the second-biggest exporter of goods in 2008 and is poised to overtake Germany.
 
The Asian nation's trade surplus was $24 billion in October.
The nation already sees itself as being at the center of world trade friction, facing 101 trade-remedy investigations in 19 countries and regions involving more than $11 billion of goods, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Dec. 3, citing the commerce ministry.
 
Wen told European leaders 30 November that calls for the RMB to appreciate are "unfair" as the country faces rising protectionism and a stable RMB aids the world's recovery.
 
Authorities in Beijing have held the currency steady at about 6.83 against the US Dollar since July 2008.
 
The RMB rose 21% in the three years after a fixed exchange rate was scrapped in 2005.
 
 
The International Monetary Fund says the RMB is "substantially" undervalued and Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world's biggest bond fund, describes bets that China will ease controls on its currency as among the best in emerging markets.
 
******************************
 
 
China scrapped a tax break on property sales and extended subsidies for auto and home appliance purchases, seeking to cool speculation while sustaining a recovery in the world's third-largest economy.
 
 
The State Council will re-impose a sales tax on homes sold within five years after cutting the period to two years in January, the cabinet said in a statement Thursday.
 
The government will scale back some tax breaks for car buyers, while continuing to fund vehicle purchases in rural areas.
 
 
China's property prices rose in November at the fastest pace in 16 months, a government survey showed Friday, reinforcing concern that record lending and a $586 billion stimulus package may lead to asset bubbles.
 
The nation's economic growth accelerated to 8.9% in the third quarter, helping Asia to lead the recovery from the global economic slump.
 
China's economy faces difficulties and challenges next year, the State Council, China's cabinet, said Thursday. The nation needs to keep expanding consumption to drive growth, it said.
 
China announced plans to reduce the real-estate sales tax and extend preferential lending rates for buyers of second homes in December 2008.
 
Prices in 70 major Chinese cities fell for the first time on record that same month and didn't post an increase until June this year, according to government data.
 
 
Prices rose 5.7% in November after gaining 3.9% in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday on its Web site.
 
Premier Wen Jiabao said 28 November in Shanghai that the government will support the development of affordable housing for low- and middle-income earners, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
 
Property speculation must also be suppressed to promote a healthy real-estate industry, Xinhua cited Wen as saying.
 
China in January cut the sales tax on the vehicles to 5% from 10% between Jan. 20 and Dec. 31.
 
It introduced the incentive to revive demand after auto sales rose at the slowest pace in a decade last year.
 
The rate will be 7.5% next year, the statement said.
Government support helped fuel a 42% jump in nationwide vehicle sales to 12.2 million in the year through November, putting China on course to surpass the US as the world's largest auto market.
 
China's full-year auto sales may be about 13 million, according to Booz & Co., which advises carmakers and investors in China.
China will also pick five cities for trials of subsidies designed to encourage individuals to buy alternative energy and energy efficient cars, the State Council said.
 
The government will increase automobile trade-in subsidies to between 5,000 RMB and 18,000 RMB, according to the statement.
China will extend subsidies for purchases of automobiles, appliances and farming equipment in rural areas, according to the statement, which didn't give a time frame for the program.
 
China will continue appliance trade-in subsidies beyond May 2010, when they had been set to expire.
 
Subsidies for motorcycle purchases will be extended to the end of January 2013, the State Council said.
 
 
Thursday's announcement came after the central government held its annual economic work meeting to plan policies for the coming year.
 
The government said it will add flexibility to some monetary economic policies next year and rein in new investment projects after the conclusion of the meetings on 7 December.
 
******************************
 
 
China, the world's largest steel consumer, will impose provisional duties on some US and Russian imports following anti-dumping and subsidy investigations, escalating a trade spat started in September.
 
Flat-rolled electrical steel products from steelmakers including AK Steel Holding Corp., OAO Novolipetsk Steel and Allegheny Ludlum Corp., would attract duties of as much as 25% from tomorrow, China's commerce ministry said in two statements on its Web site Friday.
 
The steel is used to make power transformers.
 
 
China is striking back after the US, the European Union and other countries slapped tariffs and filed complaints about Chinese steel and commodity products to the World Trade Organization this year.
 
US and Russia last year exported a combined $602 million of the targeted steel products to China, according to Mysteel Research Institute.
 
 
The tariffs come after US President Obama in a visit to Beijing last month pledged with China President Hu Jintao to work on easing trade frictions.
 
Obama imposed tariffs on Chinese tires in September, and the US later levied duties on some Chinese steel pipes.
 
The two countries have $409 billion in annual two-way trade.
US steel products will face two duties, one for subsidies and the other for dumping, the Chinese ministry said in its statement. Russian companies will only pay tariffs for anti- dumping, it said.
 
A final ruling will be decided later, the ministry said, without giving a time frame.
 
 
"This is the first time China has conducted an anti- subsidy and anti-dumping investigation," the ministry said.
 
The imports have hurt the Chinese steel industry, it said.
Disputes between China and its trading partners are escalating as the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression spurred countries to protect jobs.
 
China protested US duties of as much as 99% on $3.2 billion of Chinese steel pipe exports on Nov. 6, and announced the start of an anti-dumping probe into American carmakers.
 
The Chinese commerce ministry in October made a preliminary ruling that US, European, Russian and Taiwanese chemical companies had dumped nylon fibers at below-cost prices in the Chinese market. Nylon is used in to make textiles and toothbrushes.
 
******************************
 
 
Construction Bank Corp., the nation's second-largest lender, plans to sell 20 billion RMB ($2.9 billion) of subordinated bonds by year-end to replenish capital, according to a person familiar with the matter.
 
 
The Beijing-based bank hasn't decided on the final date for a sale, said the person, declining to be identified because he's not authorized to speak to the media about it.
 
Chinese lenders, under government pressure to finance part of the nation's 4 trillion RMB stimulus plan, are raising capital to meet loan demand and take advantage of lower interest rates.
 
The five largest submitted plans to regulators for raising money after unprecedented lending eroded their capital, four people with knowledge of the matter said last month.
 
Construction Bank won approval from the China Banking Regulatory Commission earlier this year to sell 40 billion RMB of subordinated debt, and raised 20 billion RMB in July.
 
The lender hired Citic Securities Co., Goldman Sachs Gaohua Securities Co., China International Capital Corp. and UBS Securities LLC to manage its next sale, Reuters reported Friday.
 
China's lenders may need as much as a combined 368 billion RMB to keep their capital adequacy ratios at 12%, according to BNP Paribas SA estimates.
 
Wang Zhaoxing, vice chairman of the bank regulator, wrote in a magazine article published last week that the agency asked the biggest banks to maintain ratios of at least 11%.
 
Construction Bank's capital adequacy ratio fell to 12.11% at end of September from 12.16% at the beginning of the year, according to its financial statements.
 
 
Subordinated bonds count as supplementary, or lower-Tier 2 capital. In a bankruptcy, holders of subordinated notes receive payment only after other debt claims are paid in full.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 This week, it's been a relatively quiet time for US economic data and earnings reports - hence much of the focus being on Europe.
 
But next week's calendar is a whole different story.
 
Nothing due Monday or Friday, but the FOMC kicks off a two-day meeting Tuesday, when we'll also see November PPI, NY Fed's Dec manufacturing survey and industrial production & capacity utilization.
 
 
CPI and housing starts due Wednesday, along with FOMC statement.
Weekly jobless claims, Conference Board's November Leading Economic Indicators and the Philly Fed's December manufacturing index Thursday.
 
Best Buy reports results Tuesday; FedEx, Oracle, Research In Motion, Palm and Nike all report Thursday.
 
Considering the Dollar's reaction to Friday's upbeat data, things could get very interesting for the US stockmarkets next week.
 
An 8.7% jump in housing starts is expected when the government reports November data Wednesday. A month earlier, economists were surprised by the 11% decline, which was blamed on home builders' uncertainty about renewal of a federal tax credit for home buyers.
 
The figure had been between 581,000 and 593, 000 a month since June.
 
The National Association of Home Builders issues its December housing market index Tuesday. The monthly confidence gauge was flat at 17 of 100 in November.
 
 
FedEx will post its fiscal second-quarter results Thursday after the package- delivery giant gave Wall Street something to cheer about recently by sharply boosting earnings guidance. The company cited better-than-expected growth in its US small-package business and its international express markets, notably in Asia and Latin America.
 
FedEx and rival United Parcel Service (UPS) are considered economic bellwethers because of the breadth and volume of goods they ship.
 
The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote Thursday on the confirmation of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for a second four-year term at the helm of the US central bank.
 
Last week, Bernanke testified before the panel and admitted "mistakes in managing the economy" but declared that his actions helped save the country from another Great Depression.
 
Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!
 
 
Mr Bernanke - in my humble opinion - has managed such wonderful slight-of-hand in his first term, that all/any blame for the banking/financial crisis (which is not over by the way) fell sharply at the door of his predecessor in the past and in the future, will fall sharply at the door of the FDIC.
 
 
Single-handedly his 'mistakes' anywhere else would have led to him having to find a new job but in the US, they managed to sidestep his ineptitude and deflect focus from himself and the Fed' onto Sheila Bair at FDIC.
 
And given the fact that if you wanted a 'willing scapegoat in the making', who can blame him?
 
 
No wonder so many banks are delaying their losses.
 
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp' (FDIC) keeps showing them how, by doing the same thing with its own!
 
Last week the FDIC, led by Chairman Sheila Bair since 2006, said its insurance fund's liabilities exceeded assets by $8.2 billion as of Sept. 30.
 
That marked the first time since 1992 that the industry-financed fund had shown a deficit.
 
There's plenty of reason to believe its financial health is much worse.
That's because the FDIC has been underestimating its losses ever since the financial crisis began, which is another way of saying it has consistently overstated its insurance fund's capital position.
 
At the rate it's going, the FDIC soon may have no choice but to borrow money from taxpayers by tapping its $500 billion credit line with the Treasury Department, an option it so far has avoided.
 
 
What's just as troubling, though, is the example the FDIC is setting for the industry it's supposed to regulate.
 
Either the FDIC isn't very good at gauging its obligations, or it has a habit of denying reality!
 
 
The key to understanding the financial condition of the insurance fund is a liability on its balance sheet called the contingent loss reserve. This represents the amount of money the FDIC has set aside to cover the cost of bank failures it believes are likely during the next 12 months.
 
 
Here's how the numbers break down.
 
The FDIC said its fund's latest deficit included a $38.9 billion reserve for future bank failures, as of 30 September. By comparison, the agency reported $30.7 billion of such losses for the previous year.
 
 
The credibility of that reserve figure gets shaky when you consider how much the number of troubled banks has risen lately.
 
The FDIC last week said the tally of banks on its "problem list" more than tripled during the past year. The list consists of banks that, in the agency's view, exhibit "unsafe or unsound" lending practices or financial conditions. (The FDIC doesn't name the banks.)
 
Specifically, the FDIC said there were 552 banks with $345.9 billion of assets on its problem list as of 30 September - almost 7% of all US banks. That was up from 171 banks with $115.6 billion of assets a year earlier.
 
 
The upshot: The FDIC says it expects only a modest increase in losses from bank failures during the next four quarters, while it also says the number of banks on the brink of failure has skyrocketed.
 
It's all part of a larger pattern.
 
As recently as 31 March 2008, the FDIC's reserve for future bank failures was a mere $583 million.
 
This was after Bear Stearns Cos. had collapsed, by which point the banking crisis was well under way.
 
 
The agency raised its reserve to $11.7 billion as of  30 September 2008, when it said its fund's net assets were $34.6 billion. That reserve figure proved to be about $19 billion too low.
 
 
By the end of 2008, the FDIC had increased its reserve to $24 billion and said its fund's net assets were $18.9 billion.
 
So far this year, it has reported about $32 billion of losses due to bank failures, with one month left to go.
 
 
The FDIC says it's following generally accepted accounting principles, by recognizing only those losses that are estimable and probable, and that its methods have undergone extensive reviews, including by the Government Accountability Office.
"We have continually adjusted the models, underlying assumptions and process inputs we rely upon to identify probable failures and estimate resulting losses where allowable under GAAP," an FDIC spokesman said.
 
 
"We will continue to make adjustments to our loss estimates as conditions warrant," he added, but the $38.9 billion estimate "represents our best estimate of the magnitude of probable losses we expect to experience over the next 12 months."
 
 
That might be easier to swallow if the FDIC's track record weren't so lame.
 
Meanwhile, rather than charging the industry more money for its deposit insurance, the FDIC's latest short- term fix has been to borrow $45 billion from member banks by collecting advance payments that will cover their next three years of premiums.
 
While the move will help the fund's liquidity, it won't boost its capital!
 
In effect, the FDIC is borrowing from the future to pay Friday's bills.
 
This can't keep up forever. The surest way for the FDIC to regain its credibility is by replenishing its fund's balance sheet with fresh capital raised from the banking industry, and by demonstrating that its financial reports can be trusted again.
 
Until then, its reputation as a captive regulator incapable of managing its own finances will remain intact.
 
So Ms Bair and her crew have ostensibly kept Mr Bernanke out of the spotlight for the second half of this term - and how grateful he must be for that.
 
Here in Asia next week, the Japanese economic calendar includes the December 14th release of December Tankan survey expected -27 compared to -33 last month.
 
Revised October industrial output will also be released on December 14th expected at 0.5%. On Thursday October tertiary activity will be released expected at -0.3% compared to -0.5% last month.
 
 
On Friday revised October leading indicators will be released expected at 2.5 compared to 4.2 last month.
 
 
Next week's Australian economic calendar includes Tuesday's release of Q3 dwelling unit commencements expected at -1% compared to -4% last month. On December 16th Q3 GDP will be released expected at 0.4% compared to 0.6% last quarter.
 
 
The technical outlook for the AUD is positive as the AUD rallies above 9100. Expect AUD support at 9090 the December 10th low with resistance at 9295 the December 4th high.
 
The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars look to be big gainers in the weeks ahead. The RBA has already embarked on a tightening cycle and the RBNZ looks set to do so in mid 2010 (giving investors plenty of time to "price in" the move).
 
 
Next week's EU economic calendar includes the December 14th release of Q3 employment and industrial production. Q3 unemployment is expected at -0.2% compared to minus -0.5% last quarter.
Industrial production is expected at 0.5% compared to 0.3% last month.
 
On Tuesday Q3 labour costs and wages will be released along with the German Zew index for December. Labour costs are expected at 3.8% in wages are expected at 3.9% the CW index is expected at 51.6 compared to 51.1 last month.
 
 
On Wednesday November EU manufacturing and services PMI along with HICP will be released. Manufacturing PMI is expected at 53 compared to 52.4 last month in the services PMI is expected to 53.3 compared to three last month.
 
HICP is expected at 0.3% compared to 0.4% last month.
 
Next week's UK economic calendar includes the Tuesday release of November CPI expected at 0.4% compared to 0.2% last month.
 
On Wednesday November claimant count average earnings and unemployment will be released. Claimant count is expected at 10k compared to 12.9k last month with average earnings unchanged at 1.2% and the unemployment rate at 7.7 compared to 7.8 last month.
 
 
On Thursday November retail sales would be released expected at 0.8% compared to 0.4% last month.
 
And not forgetting that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will outline fresh plans to cut the country's ballooning deficit after meeting employers and labour unions next week, a Greek official told Reuters on Friday.
 
"The Prime Minister will outline Greece's stability and growth plan, with specific commitments, after meeting with social partners on Monday," said the official.
 
 
So all told, a very hectic week by any stretch of the imagination and as I mentioned at the outset, it is going to be worth watching Ireland, Portugal and Spain in the coming weeks/months.
 
Between Greece and those three, my money would be on one of them (or more) dropping out of the Euro and returning to their former currency within the next 2 years.
 
 
You heard it here first .........
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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