Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
Let me start this week with Greece; I have had more questions about Greece this week than any other topic (apart from where to go for Chinese New Year!). The first in what is expected to be a series of strikes has begun in Greece this week as workers protest against austerity measures imposed by a government trying to dig its way out of a financial crisis that threatens to engulf Europe. So what's the problem in Greece? Years of unrestrained spending, cheap lending and failure to implement financial reforms left Greece badly exposed when the global economic downturn struck. This whisked away a curtain of partly fiddled statistics to reveal debt levels and deficits that exceeded limits set by the Eurozone. How big are these debts? National debt, put at €300 billion ($413.6 billion) is bigger than the country's economy, with some estimates predicting it will reach 120% of gross domestic product in 2010. The country's deficit -- how much more it spends than it takes in -- is 12.7%. So what happens now? Greece's credit rating - the assessment of its ability to repay its debts - has been downgraded to the lowest in the Eurozone, meaning it will likely be viewed as a financial black hole by foreign investors. This leaves the country struggling to pay its bills as interest rates on existing debts rise. The Greek government of Prime Minister George Papandreou, which inherited much of the financial burden when it took office late last year, has already scrapped most of its pre-election promises and must implement harsh and unpopular spending cuts. Will this hurt the rest of Europe? Greece is already in major breach of Eurozone rules on deficit management and with the financial markets betting the country will default on its debts, this reflects badly on the credibility of the Euro. There are also fears that financial doubts will infect other nations at the low end of Europe's economic scale, with Portugal and the Republic of Ireland coming under scrutiny. If Europe needs to resort to rescue packages involving bodies such as the International Monetary Fund, this would further damage the Euro's reputation and could lead to a substantial fall against other key currencies. So what is Greece doing? As already mentioned, the government has started slashing away at spending and has implemented austerity measures aimed at reducing the deficit by more than €10 billion ($13.7 billion). It has hiked taxes on fuel, tobacco and alcohol, raised the retirement age by two years, imposed public sector pay cuts and applied tough new tax evasion regulations. Are people happy with this? Predictably, quite the opposite and there have been warnings of resistance from various sectors of society. Farmers have begun blockading roads to demand greater government subsidies, while on February 10, workers nationwide staged a one-day strike closing airports, government offices, courts and schools. More strikes are expected to follow. Can't Greece's European neighbors step in to help? With the reputation of the region's single currency on the line, powerful Eurozone partners are keen to see Greece's problems resolved, but analysts say European Union and European Central Bank rules are unclear and seem to rule out bloc-wide rescue packages. This leaves it up to member nations -- all of which are saddled by their own debt problems -- to cobble together their own bailout plans. There are reports that the Eurozone's dominant economy, Germany, is leading calls for a "firewall" to prevent Greece's crisis from spreading, but as yet no concrete proposals have been made public. European leaders closed ranks to defend Greece from the punishment of investors in a pledge of support that may soon be tested. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her counterparts Thursday pledged "determined and coordinated action" to support Greece's efforts to regain control of its finances. They stopped short of providing taxpayers' money or diluting their own demands for the country to cut the European Union's biggest budget deficit. While bonds rallied, the Euro slipped and pressure is now on the governments to show how they would back up their words with action. The attention of investors now turns to a meeting of finance ministers in Brussels on Feb. 15-16. Ostensibly, they've got to deliver next week. They've expressed the principle of solidarity and now they need to explain and quantify it. The European strategy echoes then-US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's 2008 effort to intimidate markets with financial force. In 2008, Paulson won powers from Congress enabling a government rescue of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae -- authority he likened to a weapon whose mere existence made it unlikely it would have to be fired.
After a three-month long plunge in Greece's bonds amid speculation it was facing the threat of default, the Euro region's leaders Thursday ordered the country to slash its budget deficit and warned investors they would be willing to defend the country from speculative attack if necessary. The pledge lacked specifics and officials are now working on measures such as establishing a lending facility for Greece, with each country making a contribution according to its size, an EU official said Thursday on condition of anonymity. The strategy still gives Greece breathing space to address its budget woes. The reality is that the risk of the EU not supporting Greece has now gone. This is about enabling the Greeks to achieve a long-term solution. Greece needs to sell 53 billion Euros ($73 billion) of debt this year, equivalent to about 20% of its gross domestic product and faces bond redemptions of about 8 billion Euros on both April 20 and May 19. With Ireland forcing public workers to accept pay cuts of as much as 10% to meet EU budget rules, Merkel and other leaders are trying convince voters that Greece won't get an easy escape after a decade of fiscal profligacy. "This is not money for free," said Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of Euro-area finance ministers. "This is a strong commitment imposed on Greece." The Greek deficit soared to 12.7% of GDP last year and the government has promised to cut it below the EU's 3% limit by 2012. The test will be to attach conditions to support that are strong enough to create an incentive for the Greeks to solve their economic problems themselves. If vague conditions are set forth, Greece and potentially other peripheral countries might require support on a permanent basis. After fudging its accounts to win entry into the Euro a decade ago, Greece, representing 2.7% of the Euro-area's $13 trillion economy, posted the highest deficit in the currency's history last year. Prime Minister George Papandreou now has to face down striking workers that paralyzed Athens this week as he cuts public-sector wages, trims welfare provisions and raises taxes. The International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank have been charged with scrutinizing the country's progress. "We have lost a part of our sovereignty because of this loss of credibility," Papandreou told reporters Thursday. "We are determined to regain this lost credibility. We will do anything necessary." With the Greek crisis testing Europe's ability to run a common currency with 16 separate national fiscal policies, leaders want to avoid Paulson's fate. In July 2008, he won power from Congress enabling a government rescue of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, calling it a "bazooka in your pocket" that would make a bailout less likely. Markets soon tested the pledge and the government seized control of the mortgage lenders two months later. Across now to the US where US foreclosure filings rose 15% in January from a year earlier and exceeded 300,000 for the 11th consecutive month as modification programs failed to keep delinquent borrowers in their homes, RealtyTrac Inc. said. A total of 315,716 properties received a notice of default, auction or bank seizure last month, or one in 409 households, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said Friday in a statement. Filings fell 10% from December. Bank seizures, also known as real-estate-owned or REOs, may rise to a record 3 million this year, RealtyTrac said last month. About 66,000 delinquent loans out of a targeted 4 million by 2012 were permanently modified as of Dec. 31 under the Obama administration's Home Affordable Modification Program, according to the Treasury Department. About 787,000 mortgages are in trial programs that change loan terms, the Treasury said Jan. 19. It's almost inevitable that modifications will fail. Over the next several months, we should see REOs increase at an accelerated pace; Foreclosure filings also fell in January of last year from December, only to rise in subsequent months. If history repeats itself we will see a surge in the numbers over the next few months as lenders foreclose on delinquent loans where neither the existing loan modification programs or the new short sale and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure alternatives works. Unemployment and negative equity, where homeowners owe more than their properties are worth, are adding to the foreclosure total. More than a fifth of US homeowners had negative equity in the fourth quarter. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7% in January, and payrolls dropped by 20,000, the Labor Department said Feb. 5 in separate reports. About 8.4 million jobs have been lost since the recession began in December 2007, with more than 4 million cut since Obama took office in January 2009. Sales of existing US homes rose 14% in the fourth quarter from the third while the median price fell 4.1% from a year earlier, the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors said Friday. The sales gain may not last when government support for housing, including the Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion purchase of mortgage bonds and a first-time buyer tax credit, ends as scheduled in the spring. January's total filings were down 12% from the July peak, according to RealtyTrac. Bank seizures climbed 31% from a year earlier, default notices rose 4% and scheduled auctions increased 15%. Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for the 37th straight month, with one in 95 households receiving a filing in January. Total filings in the state fell 18% from a year earlier to 11,854. Arizona ranked second, with filings for one in 129 households. The rate for both California and Florida was one in 187 households. On a separate note, US Banks hit the headlines once more. 1st American State Bank of Minnesota became the 16th bank of the year to fail, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Friday. Community Development Bank of Ogema is set to assume the bank's $16.3 million in deposits. Community Development will also purchase the bank's $18.2 million in assets. The bank is also Minnesota's third bank failure of the year. Let's take a look at the numbers on the boards for the week that was: |
| US Markets
How the US did this week ..... |
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The Dow and S&P 500 dipped on Friday as China's move to curb bank lending and US and European economic data raised fears the global recovery might be in jeopardy. Even so, Wall Street stocks ended off the day's lows as investors bet the European Union would come up with a clear defined plan to aid debt-laden Greece and restore confidence in countries using the euro. Stock laggards included large manufacturers and commodity-related companies, many dependent on Chinese demand. On the Nasdaq, bargain-hunting in technology helped the index to end near break-even. But aluminum company Alcoa Inc fell 2.2% to $13.28, while conglomerate United Technologies Corp shed 1.5% to $65.69 and bellwether General Electric dipped 1.4% to $15.55. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 45.05 points, or 0.44%, to 10,099.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 2.96 points, or 0.27%, to 1,075.51. But the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.12 points, or 0.28%, to 2,183.53. Markets also fell on weaker-than-expected data on US consumer sentiment and business inventories and on euro zone gross domestic product. Worries over high unemployment eroded consumer sentiment early this month. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of sentiment for February was 73.7, below analysts' expectation of 75.0. Even so, the major stock indexes were on track to end the week higher, halting a four-week string of declines, thanks in part to investors scouring for shares in the beaten-down sectors. The Nasdaq was cushioned by BlackBerry maker Research in Motion , which rose 3.3% to $71.48 after Wedbush Morgan started coverage with an "outperform" rating, saying the stock was exceptionally well positioned. The top drag on the Dow was 3M Co , which fell 1.6% to $78.91 after Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said it expected slower growth from the manufacturer in the coming cycle. Ingersoll-Rand Plc shed 8% to $31.19 after it reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed Wall Street's expectations and gave a first-quarter profit view that was below consensus. Cal Dive International, a marine contractor to the offshore oil and natural gas industry, weighed on the market after warning its quarterly profit would be lower than previously forecast. The company blamed reduced demand and also poor weather in the US Gulf of Mexico which had hampered activity. The shares slid 4.8% to $6.71. Elsewhere in the sector, Ultra Petroleum initially rose after the company beat quarterly estimates and gave an encouraging forecast for this year. But a drop in the oil price sent the shares down 0.4% to $46.79. Shares in 3M slipped 2% to $78.68 after Bank of America Merrill Lynch reduced its rating on the diversified manufacturer to "underperform" from "neutral", citing slower growth in the second half. Earlier in the week, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein had upgraded the group to "outperform" from "market-perform" and noted the prospect of better margins and the potential for growth in multi-industrial groups. PepsiAmericas, the second-largest Pepsi bottler, fell 0.5% to $29.42 after posting a lower-than-expected profit for the fourth quarter. The group said it had been hit by unfavourable currency moves and the costs of restructuring its Caribbean business. On Thursday, PepsiCo itself announced that it had doubled its quarterly profit thanks to rising international sales. The previous day, Coca-Cola had said that strong demand from China, Brazil and India had helped the soft drink maker to offset declines in North America. Over the week, PepsiCo gained 1.9% to $60.67 and Coca-Cola was also 1.9% up at $54.10. Meanwhile, in the technology sector, shares in SkillSoft climbed 11.5% to $10.88 after a consortium of private equity firms agreed to buy the software maker for about $1.1bn. Motorola added 8.3% to $7.21 after the company announced plans to split into two companies: one to sell mobile phones and television set-top boxes and the other to focus on wireless networking. The companies behind the market's indices were also in focus this week as they reported their quarterly results. Nasdaq and NYSE Euronext both said they were losing market share and had suffered from falling trading volumes. However, shares in NYSE rose more than 5% after its results as cost-cutting helped the exchange operator to beat estimates. But Nasdaq's results prompted a 4% drop in its share price since the group only beat estimates by a narrow margin and it forecast higher operating costs for this year. |
| European Markets
What has been happening in Europe this week ..... |
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European stocks fell for the first time in five days as China unexpectedly increased bank reserve requirements, overshadowing better-than-estimated earnings from ThyssenKrupp AG and Eni SpA. PSA Peugeot Citroen led automakers lower after China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month. ThyssenKrupp, Germany's largest steelmaker, climbed 2.8% and Eni, Italy's biggest oil company, rose 1.1%. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.3% to 241.02. The benchmark measure for European equities has retreated 7.4% from this year's high on Jan. 19 amid concern that Greece, Spain and Portugal will struggle to reduce their budget deficits. The gauge climbed 1.5% this week as the European Union Thursday pledged "determined and coordinated action" to help Greece. National benchmark indexes declined in 12 of the 18 western European markets. The UK's FTSE 100 dropped 0.4% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.5%. Germany's DAX slipped less than 0.1%. Greece's ASE Index sank 2.1% as the country's statistics service revised down its gross domestic product data for the first three quarters of 2009. Europe's recovery almost stalled in the fourth quarter as waning spending and investment in Germany unexpectedly brought growth in the region's largest economy to a halt. GDP in the 16-nation Euro region rose 0.1% from the third quarter, when it gained 0.4%, the European Union's statistics office said. Economists had forecast expansion of 0.3%. GERMANY German stocks were little changed as a report showed the country's economy stagnated and China moved to cool growth, offsetting better-than-estimated earnings at ThyssenKrupp AG. Daimler AG and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG followed European carmakers lower after China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month. ThyssenKrupp, Germany's largest steelmaker, climbed 2.8%. The benchmark DAX Index slipped 0.1% to 5,500.39, even as 16 out of 30 stocks advanced. The measure still climbed 1.2% this week, the first such gain in a month. The broader HDAX Index fell 0.1% Friday. Daimler and BMW, the world's biggest makers of luxury cars, lost 1% to 32.46 Euros and 1.7% to 29 Euros, respectively. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index fell 2.1%, the worst performance among 19 industry groups in the broader measure. Volkswagen AG's preferred shares slipped 1.9% to 56.06 Euros. ThyssenKrupp increased 2.8% to 22.96 Euros. Germany's largest steelmaker reported its first quarterly profit in a year as it benefited from reduced costs and a rebound in demand for the metal. Net income in the fiscal first quarter, which ended in December, was 164 million Euros ($224.4 million), compared with 168 million Euros a year earlier. Carl Zeiss Meditec retreated 1.7% to 12.17 Euros. The company said it's not "content" with a decline in first-quarter revenue though it affirmed growth targets for the full year. Sales dropped to 156.2 million Euros from 177.9 million Euros. Freenet increased 2.4% to 9.65 Euros. The company plans to quadruple its dividend to "at least" 80 Euro cents, Chief Executive Officer Christoph Vilanek was quoted as saying in an interview told WirtschaftsWoche in an interview. Q-Cells slumped 6% to a record low of 7.95 Euros. SES Research cut its share-price estimate 47% to 4.50 Euros, saying the solar company may post further losses in 2010. FRANCE France's CAC 40 Index declined for a second day, falling 17.68, or 0.5%, to 3,599.07 in Paris. The gauge has increased 1% this week. The SBF 120 Index also lost 0.5% Friday. Assystem climbed 31 cents, or 3.6%, to 8.85 Euros, a third gain this week. The company, which offers research and development services, was raised to "buy" from "reduce" at Gilbert Dupont. BNP Paribas retreated 90 cents, or 1.9%, to 47.60 Euros, a second day of losses. The French bank was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at Deutsche Bank AG. Bouygues lost for a second session, falling 1.11 Euros, or 3.2%, to 33.37 Euros. Oddo Securities downgraded the construction company to "reduce" from "add." Cie. de Saint-Gobain dropped 1.17 Euros, or 3.6%, to 31.36 Euros, the lowest in more than five months. Morgan Stanley downgraded Europe's biggest building materials supplier to "underweight" from "equal weight." The brokerage said in a note that the balance of risk and reward is relatively unattractive. Credit Agricole fell for a second day, losing 28.5 cents, or 2.7%, to 10.11 Euros. Bank stocks were among the worst performers in Europe after China's central bank said it will raise banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. Societe Generale retreated 1.26 Euros, or 3.1%, to 39 Euros. Michelin & Cie. dropped for a second session, falling 1.53 Euros, or 2.9%, to 50.48 Euros. The world's second-largest tiremaker reported 2009 net income of 106 million Euros, compared with an average analyst estimate of 121 million Euros. Morgan Stanley reiterated an "underweight" rating, pointing out the lack of outlook "due to poor visibility and high raw material cost environment." PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe's second-biggest carmaker, slid 83 cents, or 4.1%, to 19.57 Euros, a third loss. Automobile stocks were the worst performers in Europe Friday. "Momentum is turning negative on the car sector due to the lack of visibility on the second half," Kepler Capital Markets wrote in a note. Renault SA (RNO FP), France's second- largest carmaker, dropped 1.45 Euros, or 4.7%, to 29.56 Euros, the lowest since Sept. 3. Nexans retreated 2.8 Euros, or 4.9%, to 54.30 Euros, paring a 6.7% gain Thursday. BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research cut its recommendation on the world's biggest maker of cables and wires to "neutral" from "buy." Rougier increased 1.18 Euros, or 5.9%, to 21.18 Euros, the highest in almost three weeks. The wood- paneling maker forecast a "gradual" recovery in 2010 after sales fell 21% to 124.9 million Euros last year. BELGIUM The Bel 20 in Brussels closed out the week at 2,461.47, up 0.31% for Friday's session. KBC Bank Ireland posted a net profit of €92 million in 2009, down 10% on the previous year, after loan losses more than trebled to €176 million. The bank's loan book dropped to €18 billion from €18.8 billion, reflecting limited demand among borrowers. Chief executive John Reynolds said the bank's Brussels-based parent was keen to "carve out a significant niche in the Irish market". He said the bank would not consider buying any part of the €10 billion retail loan book at Bank of Scotland (Ireland), which is closing its intermediary and Halifax retail business and branches. "We are more comfortable with organic growth," he said, adding that the bank expects to post a similar performance in 2010. "If we can push the loan book up toward €19 billion, that would probably be a good performance," he said. Operating income rose to €330 million from €235 million, as funding costs improved in 2009. "It was a good year in a horrible environment. We hope to be substantially profitable in 2010," he said, adding that he was also hopeful the Irish market would be "a bit more buoyant in 2011". Deposits rose by about €6 billion from €5 billion the previous year, representing 30% of total loans, with a further 20% of funding coming from the bank's parent KBC in Belgium. "There has been a degree of easing on our funding in 2009, though not as much as we would have liked," he said. Arrears of 90 days or more on KBC's €13.4 billion Irish home loans and residential investment mortgages rose to 3.7% from 2% the previous year. Belgian property investment group Cofinimmo said on Friday profit in 2010 would be similar to the levels reached in 2009 and proposed a dividend for 2009 in line with its own guidance. Net current profit for 2009, excluding the impact of accounting rule IAS 39 (adjustments in the value of financial instruments) but including non-recurring items, was 92.4 million Euros . A Reuters poll of four analysts had produced an average expectation of 95 million Euros. Per share, the figure was 7.47 Euros, just above the group's guidance for net current profit of 7.40 Euros. This compared with 7.30 Euros per share in 2008. The dividend would be 6.50 Euros per share for 2009, as it had previously forecast, compared to 7.80 Euros per share in 2008. The Brussels-based group, which rents out office space to businesses and government institutions, also said its net current result per share in 2010 would be fairly close to the level reached in 2009. It would provide a more detailed forecast at the end of March. Belgian imaging technology group Agfa-Gevaert will expand significantly in emerging markets in the next two years and no longer has any interest in splitting up. Significant cost cutting helped the company, which makes hospital imaging systems and printing systems for publishers, to swing back to profit in the third quarter of 2009 after its graphics unit in particular was hit hard in the downturn. "We have corrected the cost, almost completely renewed management and dealt with the question of debt," said outgoing chief executive Jo Cornu, who hands over to healthcare division head Christian Reinaudo in April. Since its public listing in 1999, Agfa, once a photographic company, has undergone significant restructuring to cut costs and adjust to changing markets. Net debt at the end of 2009 stood at 445 million Euros, down from about 850 million Euros when Cornu first took the reins in December 2007. The graphics business, focused on the media and publishing sector as well as printing on textiles and packaging, would launch new products such as synthetic paper to make up for the loss of its traditional products in mature markets, Cornu told reporters.
THE NETHERLANDS In Amsterdam the AEX finished the week on 315.74, down 0.33%. The 35 billion Euro ($48 billion) pension fund for Dutch metal and mechanical workers plans to cut western property exposure as it seeks to diversify through higher allocations to emerging and Eastern markets. Theo JEurissen, Chief Investment Officer of the PMT scheme, said it currently invests about 12 pecent of its assets in property, mainly via direct investments in the Netherlands and through partnerships with local managers in Germany, Austria, Italy and Japan. The fund has invested mostly in prime locations targeting relatively stable returns, but this portion of its portfolio still lagged all the other asset classes in 2009. Property values over much of Europe continued to plunge in the first half of 2009 before bottoming out late in the year. Falling rents and reduced tenant demand continue to spook many risk-averse investors who are still counting the costs of highly-leveraged real estate deals that crumbled in the wake of the credit crisis. Dutch consumer prices rose 0.8% year-on-year in January, slower than December's 1.1% rise, the Central Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. Economists had expected a rate of 1%. Inflation fell for the first time in six months. On a monthly basis, consumer prices logged zero growth in January. The harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.4% year-on-year, slower than 0.7% rise in December. The HICP fell 0.3% month-on-month. Dutch industrial production rose 1% year-on-year in December following a fall of 2% in November, the Central Bureau of Statistics said Monday. That was the first increase since June 2008. On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell 2.2% in December, reversing a 0.4% rise in November. In 2009 as a whole, industrial production declined 9% over 2008. In a separate report, the statistical office said industrial turnover rose 3% in December compared to the previous year. It follows a 4% drop in November. Turnover declined 20% in 2009. AUSTRIA Vienna's ATX rounded off the week on 2,449.57, down 0.80%. Wienerberger pledged it would not close down any factories this year after the Austrian brick producer shut 31 plants and sacked 2,500 workers in various countries in 2009. "From what we know Friday, no factories will be shut this year," company boss Heimo Scheuch said this week. Scheuch said he was cautiously optimistic for the Vienna-based firm's activities in Poland due to the country's strong domestic demand, adding that the economic future of Central and Eastern Europe would be "hard to estimate". The firm's chief also said he expected Wienerberger's order situation this year to be better than in 2009 due to "restructure measures" and cost-cuttings the company carried out. Machine builder Artec Maschinenbau GmbH entered bankruptcy proceedings Tuesday in Upper Austria, according to the Credit Protection Agency of 1870 (KSV) and Creditreform. KSV said the bankruptcy would affect the firm's 20 employees and 137 creditors. KSV put Artec's debt at around 4.8 million Euros and added the firm would seek a forced settlement with creditors. KSV said Artec had one million Euros in short-term debt that should be paid immediately and the rest of its debt was long-term. The reason for the decision to enter bankruptcy proceedings, KSV said, was a drastic decline in orders as recession had a strong negative impact on the machine building industry. Artec entered bankruptcy proceedings for the first time in 2004 and won a forced settlement with creditors providing for payment of 20 cents on each Euro owed. Vienna champagne and spirits producer Schlumberger reported higher turnover in the first three quarters of its 2009/2010 business year (1 April to 31 March). Firm spokesman Benedikt Zacherl said turnover had risen by 5.4% year on year to 179 million Euros. He added that turnover had risen by 3.8% if the acquisition of Hochriegel in November and the sale of Appelt in August were excluded from the calculation. He cited a focus on the Austrian origin of the firm's products in marketing and concentration on the firm's champagne core business as the reasons for better results and said the firm wanted to raise its turnover by five to six% in its next business year. He also noted Schlumberger had begun sales in the Russian, Romanian and Ukrainian markets last year. Zacherl said Schlumberger had had a champagne market share of 30% last year, second to Henkel with 32%. SWITZERLAND In Switzerland the SMI in Zurich ended the trading session and the week on 6,416.20 - up 0.20% and one of the few European markets to be positive Friday. Swiss private bank Sarasin will sell a subsidiary back to its Italian founders after regulatory changes prompted the bank to change its strategy with respect to Italian clients. The bank said on Friday it had agreed to sell Sarasin Colombo Gestioni Patrimoniali SA, based in Lugano in the Italian-speaking Swiss canton of Ticino, back to the Colombo family for an undisclosed price. "The market situation and regulatory developments over the recent months in Italy have prompted the executive management of Bank Sarasin to pursue new business opportunities in Italy," said Sarasin in a statement, without giving details. A financial hub for many of Italy's most wealthy families, Ticino has been shaken by Italy's third tax amnesty in a decade and was targeted by Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti, who also ordered raids on Swiss banks in Italy in October. The tax amnesty, during which 95 billion Euros ($131 billion) was repatriated to Italy, has been extended to April from December, the previous deadline. The Swiss government will probably have to turn to parliament to resolve a legal impasse threatening a deal struck with the United States to hand over data from UBS AG clients, a minister was quoted as saying. The Swiss government had raised the option of parliament retroactively approving the deal, involving UBS clients suspected of dodging taxes, after a Swiss court ruled in favour of a UBS client seeking to prevent her account data from being given to the US tax agency. [ID:nLDE60P26N] But the government's preferred solution has so far been to negotiate a way out, hoping the United States would drop the issue if more than 10,000 UBS clients had turned themselves in voluntarily. "I assume Friday that parliament has to get involved," Justice Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf told Swiss daily Blick in an interview published on Thursday. "The United States insist that we stick to the fundamentals of the agreement. This means they want the some 4,500 sets of client data, which refer to cases of severe tax evasion and tax fraud," she said. Only some of a total 14,000 clients who have turned themselves in voluntarily to US authorities are UBS clients, Widmer-Schlumpf said when asked if not enough UBS clients have turned themselves in, without giving a detailed number. A spokesman for the justice ministry said talks with US authorities were continuing, also declining to provide further details. Switzerland's annual inflation rose to 1% in January from 0.3% last month, the Federal Statistical announced Thursday. Economists had expected annual inflation to increase to 0.8%. Month-on-month, consumer prices were down 0.1%, while economists were expecting a 0.4% fall. Switzerland's unadjusted jobless rate rose to 4.5% in January from 4.4% in December, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said Monday. Economists had forecast a rate of 4.6%. There were 175,765 unemployed people at the end of January in the country, up from 172,740 in December. The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment was 4.1% in January, down from 4.2% recorded in December. That was in contrast to an increase to 4.3% predicted. SWEDEN Stockholm's OMX headed into the weekend on 931.35, a drop of 1.30% for the Friday session. Thursday, the Executive Board of the Riksbank decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 0.25% and said it will begin to raise the repo rate in the summer or early autumn. The decision was in line with expectations. The central bank said the assessment now is that the upturn in economy activity rests on more solid ground. Hence, there are sound reasons for increasing the repo rate somewhat sooner than was assessed in December. Wednesday, the Statistics Sweden announced that the industrial output dropped 5.8% year-on-year in December, slower than the 12.4% fall in November, revised from 12.6% decline reported initially. Manufacturing output fell 6.6% annually in December, while mining and quarrying output rose 17%. On a monthly basis, industrial output increased 1.8% in December, slower than the 1.9% growth in the previous month, revised from 2% increase estimated initially. New orders received by Swedish industries increased 1.1% month-on-month in December, following the upwardly revised 2.4% increase in the previous month. This came despite a 2.4% fall in export orders. Industrial orders in the domestic market were up 0.4%. On a yearly basis, new orders grew 8% in December, faster than the 1.5% increase in the preceding month. Orders in the domestic market increased 7.3%, while those in the export market were up 8.6%. The activity index, which broadly measures activity in the Swedish economy, climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% month-on-month in December, following the 0.8% increase in the previous month. In trend terms, the activity index rose 0.1% in December, the same rate of increase as in preceding month. The increase in the activity index was mainly due to an increasing trend in exports of goods, industrial production and retail trade turnover, the statistical agency said. Sweden's jobless rate stood at 5.7% in January, up from 5.6% in December, a report from the Public Employment Service said on Wednesday. Economists' expected the jobless rate to be 5.7%. The jobless rate is measured by the number of unemployed registered with the Employment Service. The number of unemployed registered in the employment service totaled 265,000 in January, showing an increase of 1.2 percentage points or 55,000 persons over a year ago. In January, the number of registered unemployed at the Employment Service and the number of programs who are supported amounted to 438 000 persons,which was 9.4% of the workforce, the agency said. DENMARK Denmark's OMX closed a volatile week once again on 349.74, up 0.35% for the day. Danish audiologic tools group GN Store Nord said Friday its 2009 EBITA will be pulled down by DKK85m provisions related to certain legal issues involving its headset unit GN Netcom. Excluding these provisions, GN expects its full-year EBITA from ongoing operations to exceed its previous guidance for DKK65m due to better-than-expected development in the fourth quarter. The provisions are for potential defence and settlement costs related to legal issues including possible fraudulent actions committed by an employee. GN said it could not further elaborate on the issues at this point due to their nature. The group is due to release its financial report for 2009 and its guidance for 2010 on 24 February 2010. The consumer price index or CPI increased 2% year-on-year in January, faster than the 1.4% growth in the previous month. Economists expected an increase of 1.5%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in January, after falling 0.2% in December. Economists were looking for a decline of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP rose 1.9% on an annual basis in January, faster than the 1.2% growth in the preceding month. The HICP climbed 0.3% compared to the preceding month. Denmark's seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed to DKK 6.2 billion in December from DKK 6.7 billion surplus in November, the Statistics Denmark said Monday. Exports were up 40.5% year-on-year, almost similar to the 40.2% rise seen in November. Imports grew 34.3%, faster than 33.5% increase in the previous month. Trade surplus for the fourth quarter was DKK 19.3 billion. NORWAY The OBX in Oslo ended Friday on 310.94, off 1.41% for the day. Low fare airline Norwegian has presented the best annual result in the company's history. The net result after tax amounted to 446 MNOK. The last quarter was also the best Q4 ever. During 2009, Norwegian had a strong passenger growth and carried 10.8 million passengers, an increase of 18% compared to the previous year. I am very pleased with reporting positive results in a time where the industry is facing challenging market conditions, said CEO Bjørn Kjos. - I am especially pleased with our cost reductions and improved competitiveness. The unit cost for 2009 was reduced by 13% compared to 2008. During 2009, Norwegian launched 63 new routes, of these 30 in Denmark, 18 in Sweden and 15 new routes in Norway. On Thursday Norwegian launched, for the first time, new routes from Oslo and Stockholm to Helsinki. Statoil Thursday posted a more than threefold rise in net profit for the fourth quarter of 2009, as higher oil prices and lower tax rates more than offset weak refining margins and gas prices. But the Norwegian oil giant said they may delay some Norwegian natural gas production and miss its original output target for 2012, offering the latest evidence of concerns over the depressed prices in the gas market. Statoil further gave a bleak outlook for refining margins. "We anticipate that [refining margins] will remain low, at least in the near term," Statoil said in a statement. Statoil's profit was hit by a 55% drop in its refining margins to $3.4 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2009, echoing similar woes at rivals Total SA (TOT) and at Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. The Norwegian oil giant said fourth-quarter net profit rose to 7.1 billion Norwegian kroner ($1.25 billion) from NOK2.0 billion a year earlier, but lower than the consensus in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of five analysts for NOK10.2 billion. Profit was also boosted by increased sales of oil and gas shipments and cost savings. The year-earlier quarterly result had been hurt by an unusually high effective tax rate. Earnings per share for the period was NOK2.25, compared to NOK0.63. The higher net profit came despite revenue falling for the period to NOK122.6 billion from NOK149.8 billion a year earlier. Statistics Norway announced on Wednesday that the consumer price index rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, faster than the 2% growth in the previous month. Economists had expected prices to rise by 2.1%. The jump in inflation was mainly due to an increase in electricity costs, the statistical agency said. The housing, water, electricity & fuels component increased 2.4% in January. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% in January - again missing expectations for a 0.2% fall, after the 0.2% growth in December. Excluding volatile factors, consumer prices grew 2.3% on a yearly basis but fell 0.6% on a monthly basis- roughly in line with expectations. Also the same day it was announced that On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% in January - again missing expectations for a 0.2% fall, after the 0.2% growth in December. Excluding volatile factors, consumer prices grew 2.3% on a yearly basis but fell 0.6% on a monthly basis- roughly in line with expectations. FINLAND Helsinki's OMX finished the trading day Friday at 6,436.12, a dip of 0.80%. Finland-based listed shopping centre group Citycon sharply narrowed its net loss for 2009 to E37m from a deficit of E139m in 2008, and also cut its 4Q09 loss by 32% to E24m. CEO Petri Olkinuora said net cash from operating activities and direct result per share were among the best in the company's history last year thanks to growth in rental income and lower interest costs. "Citycon's financial position is stable and we have sufficient committed, non-utilised credit facilities to finance projects under construction," he said. Finnish insurer Sampo Thursday said it would raise its dividend after posting a 77% fourth-quarter rise in its closely watched net asset value per share on rebounding mark-to-market values. The Nordic region's largest property-and-casualty insurer said NAV per share rose to Eur14.63 from Eur8.28 a year earlier, above expectations of Eur14 and marking its highest result ever. Net profit fell 3.3% to Eur148 million from Eur153 million a year earlier, beating analyst forecasts of Eur137 million. The group proposed a dividend of Eur1 a share, up from Eur0.80 the preceding year, and said it would simplify its dividend policy to better match its peer group. It now plans to pay annual dividends of more than 50% of group profit, excluding extraordinary items, starting 2011. It previously paid an annual corresponding to a dividend yield of 4%-6%. Chief Executive Officer Kari Stadigh said in an interview on the insurer's Web site that the new policy would be neutral for shareholders, with returns similar to those before. Stadigh said he is "positive" on investment markets in 2010--Sampo increased its equity weight to 11% from 5% a year ago--but that the road to recovery will be bumpy given economic fragility and high unemployment. Statistics Finland said on Friday that the trend indicator of the output of the national economy rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% month-on-month in December. On a yearly basis, output adjusted for working days fell 5.3% in December, slower than the 6.4% decline in the preceding month. Finland's value of new orders in manufacturing rose 15.4% year-on-year in December. It follows 6.8% rise in November. For the first time since summer 2008, new orders in manufacturing took a turn upwards in November, the statistical office said. In December, all main industries got on a growth track. The strongest growth in the value of orders was seen in the metal industry where it was as high as 19.2%. In the chemical industry, orders went up by 13.7%. Orders grew by 8.4% in the manufacture of paper and paper products and by 1.4% in the textile industry. In 2009 as a whole, new orders in manufacturing decreased 30.1% year-on-year. Friday, Finnish building costs declined 0.4% year-on-year in January. The total index of building costs, however, rose 0.5% from December. On a year-on-year basis, labor costs in the construction sector rose 3.4%, while price of materials fell 1.6% and those of other inputs were down 3.7%. Labor costs recorded a monthly increase of 0.7% in January. Prices of materials grew 0.4% from December and those of other inputs rose 0.2%. The total turnover generated by service industries in Finland fell 6.9% year-on-year in November. During the three month period that ended in November, services turnover slumped 8.6% annually, faster than the 8.4% decrease in the three months to August period. Turnover in transport and storage fell 15.9% during the period while turnover in professional, scientific and technical activities was 11.5% lower than in the same period of the previous year. On the other hand, turnover in arts, entertainment & recreation increased 5.3%. Wednesday, the Statistics Finland announced that the industrial production dropped a working day adjusted 5.9% year-on-year in December, slower than the 18.2% fall in November, revised from 15.2% decline reported initially. On a monthly basis, industrial output rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in December, at the same pace as in the previous month, revised from 1.3% increase estimated earlier. For the whole year of 2009, industrial output decreased 20.9% from the previous year. The drop was the worst since Finland became an independent State, the statistical office said. SPAIN In Madrid the Ibex rounded out the week on 10,224.90, a drop of 0.55%. Spanish group ACS is close to selling the Spanish port business of its subsidiary Dragados SPL to a JPMorgan infrastructure fund, though concerns about the port sector are hampering the deal, sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday. Ports are seen as among the most vulnerable infrastructure assets in an economic downturn, with the recent crisis prompting many shipping lines to cut freight rates and capacity, even as the global economy starts to improve. [ID:nLB221630] ACS is negotiating the sale of ports that account for about 90 to 95% of the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of the Spanish business of Dragados SPL, three people familiar with the matter said. Asked if there were plans to sell the Spanish port business of Dragados to JPMorgan, an ACS spokesman declined to comment. A JPMorgan spokeswoman also declined to comment. Spain's consumer price index rose 1% in January from the last year, faster than December's 0.8% increase, a report from the National Statistics Institute showed Friday. However, prices dropped 1% on a month-on-month comparison. Both monthly and annual variations matched economists' expectations. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices rose 1.1% annually in January. The statistical office confirmed the flash estimate released on January 29. The Spanish economy remained in recession in the final quarter of 2009, data released by the government showed on Thursday. Spain's gross domestic product decreased 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months through December, the National Statistics Institute said. The result came exactly in line with analyst expectations and follows a 0.3% decrease in the September quarter. The slowdown in contraction was the result of a less negative contribution of domestic demand and of the positive contribution of the overseas sector, the statistical office said. The Spanish economy has now contracted for seven consecutive quarters and it remains the last major economy to still be mired in recession. The National Statistics Institute said GDP slumped 3.1% compared to a year ago, roughly matching expectations after the 4% decrease in the preceding quarter. Spain has the largest unemploment rate in the Eurozone at 20%, with some 44.5% of under 25s without a job. The collapse of the property sector sparked Spain's recession, with the services sector also being weak. The government unveiled a number of stimulus measures to support the stricken economy and in the process racked up a massive budget deficit. Spain's bulging deficit - estimated at 11.3% of gross domestic product in 2009 - has led some observers to question whether the country can repay its debts. On Wednesday, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero defended the solvency of the country, claiming the economy was "not worse than six months ago", and claimed the Iberian nation was "on the verge" of coming out of recession. PORTUGAL Lisbon's PSI General completed the week at 2,587.40, a decline of 0.79% on the day. Portugal will not quit the Eurozone despite the difficult financial circumstances, the country's Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said in an interview with the BBC on Tuesday. "We are very far from that scenario, I don't think the situation will lead to such an outcome," he told the BBC World Service's Business Daily programme. Portugal's budget deficit was estimated at 9.3% of gross domestic product in 2009 - more than three times over what E.U. rules allow. Teixeira dos Santos said the government was ready to cut-down on expenditure to control its bulging budget deficit and dismissed the possibility of the government needing a bailout to get out of its fix. "I would not say yes to a bailout, because we have to make important reforms and corrections," said Teixeira dos Santos "Such a kind of a bailout would look like some kind of anaesthesia that will not correct what we should correct. We have to face the public finance situation and correct it with our own efforts," he added. Wednesday, the Statistics Portugal announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year in January, compared to the 0.1% fall in the previous month. A year earlier, the CPI was up 0.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI dropped 0.5% in January, in contrast to a 0.1% growth in the preceding month. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy components and fresh unprocessed food products, dropped 0.6% in January, compared to the 0.2% fall in the previous month. Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.1% on an annual basis in January, after falling 0.1% in December. Monday, the Statistics Portugal reported that exports dropped 3.6% in the last quarter of 2009 to Eur 8.14 billion. At the same time, imports declined 7.1% to Eur 13.26 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of Eur 5.12 billion. During the same period of last year, the trade deficit totaled Eur 5.84 billion. ITALY Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB lost 40.54, or 0.2%, to 21,035.91 in Milan, paring its gain for the week to 1.1%. Banca Popolare di Milano declined 11 cents, or 2.5%, to 4.25 Euros. Bank stocks were among the worst performers in Europe after China's central bank said it will raise banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. Banco Popolare SC (BP IM) declined 9 cents, or 2%, to 4.47 Euros. UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) dropped 3.2 cents, or 1.6%, to 1.92 Euros. Buzzi Unicem declined 27 cents, or 2.8%, to 9.56 Euros, the lowest since July. Gruppo Banca Leonardo cut its price estimate on Italy's second-biggest cement maker to 11 Euros from 14 Euros. The brokerage kept a "buy" rating. Davide Campari-Milano surged 37 cents, or 5.1%, to 7.64 Euros, the biggest gain in three months. Shares of the beverage company benefit from "its defensive characteristics and resilient growth," said Roberto Ruggiero, a fund manager at Banca Arner SpA in Milan. Eni increased 18 cents, or 1.1%, to 16.65 Euros. Italy's largest oil company reported a profit in the fourth quarter after crude oil prices rebounded last year. The "results were above expectations both at operating and bottom-line level," Equita Sim SpA said in a note. Eutelia gained 1.35 cents, or 4.7%, to 29.85 cents, ending a two-day decline. The provider of voice, data and Internet services said in a statement that it's not involved in a probe and denied any wrongdoing. Fiat fell for a second day, losing 25 cents, or 3.1%, to 7.75 Euros. Automobile stocks were the worst performers in Europe Friday. "Momentum is turning negative on the car sector due to the lack of visibility on the second half," Kepler Capital Markets wrote in a note. Separately, Sal. Oppenheim Jr. & Cie. reiterated a "reduce" rating on the Italian carmaker. Gruppo Coin climbed 4.75 cents, or 1.1%, to 4.24 Euros, erasing Thursday's loss. Deutsche Bank AG lifted its price estimate on Italy's largest clothing distributor to 6.5 Euros from 4.7 Euros. The brokerage reiterated a "buy" recommendation. Indesit declined 32 cents, or 3.4%, to 9 Euros, a first loss this week. Equita Sim SpA downgraded the maker of Hotpoint stoves and refrigerators to "hold" from "buy" and removed the stock from its "small caps portfolio." Shares of the tiremaker Pirelli fell for a second day, fell 0.55 cents, or 1.4%, to 37.65 cents. Michelin & Cie. Chief Executive Officer Michel Rollier said in an interview that conditions are too volatile for the company to set a date for meeting its medium-term objective for an operating margin of 10%. Saipem, Europe's largest oilfield-services provider, lost 18 cents, or 0.7%, to 24.79 Euros, ending a three-day gain. Oil fell in New York for the first day in five. Tenaris, the world's largest maker of seamless pipes used to extract oil and gas, declined for a second day this week, losing 17 cents, or 1.1%, to 16.04 Euros. Snam Rete Gas rose for a third day, adding 3.75 cents, or 1.1%, to 3.45 Euros. Eni SpA has "no urgency" to find an alternative position on Italy's gas- distribution network operator, Chief Executive Officer Paolo Scaroni said on a conference call Friday. Scaroni also said "any potential disinvestment" of Snam should be reviewed first by the Italian parliament. He said he isn't "dogmatic" on keeping the gas-distribution network. GREECE The Athex in Athens brought the week to a close on 1,899.42, a Friday drop of 2.11%. Thursday, the General Secretariat of the National Statistical Service of Greece said the jobless rate rose to 10.6% in November from 9.8% in October. A year ago, the jobless rate stood at 7.8%. The number of unemployed people increased 40,814 persons from October and by 146,965 from the previous year. Meanwhile, the number of employed decreased by 40,870 from October to 4,464,230. Wednesday, Moody's Investors Service reiterated the need for risk differentiation among the three southern European nations, Spain, Portugal and Greece, whose public finances are under market scrutiny. The agency also warned that Greece faces a risk of further downgrade if the government fails to stick to its plans to cut debt. In a new report titled "Spain, Portugal & Greece: Contagion or Confusion?", Moody's said only Greece faces material challenges. "Spain, Portugal and Greece may share the same currency, but they do not display the same credit profile," said Kristin Lindow, Senior Vice President in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group. The ongoing concerns over the ability of the three countries to roll over their existing debt and finance their ongoing budget deficits have so far not been substantiated by hard evidence, the rating agency noted. That said, market spreads in Spain, Portugal and Greece now suggest much larger credit risk differentiation than is indicated by their ratings, it added. Spain currently holds a Aaa rating with a stable outlook. Portugal has Aa2 ratings with negative outlook. Greece's ratings were cut to A2 from A1 in December and assigned a negative outlook. Further, Moody's pointed out that fears that the borrowings of these countries may be quantity- rather than price-constrained are exaggerated. The agency viewed Spain's Aaa rating to be well anchored, while sees Portugal's rating as subject to some moderate downward pressure as illustrated by the negative outlook. However, it noted that these situations are not directly comparable to that of Greece. Repeating its earlier assessment, Moody's said Greece's ambitious government plans could, if implemented as promised, stabilize the country's rating. "A flawless execution of the ambitious program announced by the Greek authorities and monitored by the EU Commission would go a long way to alleviating short-term as well as long-term concerns," Lindow said. "A material deviation from such commitment would lead Moody's to downgrade the rating, which currently has a negative outlook." |
| The UK Market
Did it follow the Global trend ..... |
Defensive sectors found favour on Friday, with National Grid the top performer as the FTSE 100 showed its first decline of the week. Shares in the utility gained 2.6% to 640p after house broker Morgan Stanley said US rate plans could boost earnings nearly 15%. Deals with Massachusetts and upstate New York - which account for about 40% of its US rate base - were due to be negotiated this year so there could be further upside to forecasts, it said. Morgan Stanley proposed National Grid as a hedge against rising inflation, given the group's UK-regulated business was linked to the retail price index. China's move to raise bank reserve requirements weighed against the wider market, sending the FTSE 100 down 19.03 points, or 0.4%, to 5,142.45. That trimmed the index's gain for the week to 1.6%, its first advance in five weeks. Banks remained under pressure as traders took their lead from ever-widening sovereign debt insurance prices, most notably for Dubai. Lloyds Banking Group was down 3.2% to 46½p, even after it completed pricing on a debt-for-equity swap. Barclays was 2.4% lower at 262p ahead of results next week, while RBS eased 2% to 31¼p. GlaxoSmithKline, among the gainers, added 1.4% to £12.29 following a Merrill Lynch upgrade from "sell" to "neutral" on valuation grounds. Merrill Lynch was also positive on Diageo, saying the stock was trading at its lowest valuation multiples in 20 years. Diageo closed up 1.2% to £10.30. International Power was up 1.4% to 329¼p on rehashed speculationthat GDF-Suez might take a stake of up to 20% as part of an asset-swap deal. GDF has restated it is not in talks with IP. BT Grouprallied 2.2% to 122½p, having dropped a day earlier after its results were overshadowed by a row with the Pension Regulator. Ferrexpoled the mid-cap risers, up 9.4% to 230p, after rebel shareholder Igor Kolomoisky sold the last of his stake, improving liquidity in the tightly held iron ore miner. Aegis edged up 1.1% to 118¼p after Altium Securities highlighted this week's better-than-expected results from sector peers Havas and Omnicom. HMVwas 2.4% higher at 73¾p after house broker Nomura restarted coverage with a 120p price target. Nomura said the market had failed to understand HMV's acquisition of music venue operator Mama, which underpins consensus forecasts and offers upside from synergies and growth initiatives. With shares at 5.4 times earnings and offering a 10% yield, investors were assuming an unjustified level of risk, it added. Sector peer Game Group lost 5% to 87¾p following US trade data showing video game sales down 13% in January. Set-top box maker Pace fell 6% to 172p in thin deals after Motorola detailed plans to spin out its competing division. F&C Asset Management rallied 1% to 60½p on volume about four times the daily average. Its shares have been weighed on by concerns Resolution could cancel legacy contracts that F&C had with Friends Provident, which provide about a quarter of its funds under management. Provexis announced a marketing deal for Fruitflow with DSM, the Dutch vitamin supplier, on Friday. Fruitflow is a tomato-based product that can be added to drinks and dietary supplements with the aim of helping circulation. But the healthfood developer's shares fell 11.7% to 6.65p on disappointment that the deal was provisional and because Stephen Moon, Provexis chief executive, sold 6m shares at 7.2p each. Oxford Nutrascience, which specialises in making medicines more palatable, became the first company to float on Aim this year after shares were placed at 1.75p following a £1.1m fundraising. The shares closed at 2p. Oxford's biggest shareholder is Richard Griffiths' Ora Group, which has a 35% holding in the £9m company. Desire Petroleum fell a further 3% to 103p. But Oriel Securities said the recent detention of a supply ship by the Argentine government would not stop drilling at Desire's prospect in the North Falklands basin from getting under way this month. Asos, the online fashion retailer, added 3.9% to 455p after Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" rating after a company meeting. "Asos management plans to roll out a US-targeted site in 2010 as well as a French and German language site," the broker said. Gladstone Pacific Nickel held firm at 17½p. This week a company controlled by Australian businessman Clive Palmer had called for a shareholder meeting to remove Gladstone's chairman. |
| Asia Pacific Regional Markets
Did they set the tone or follow the lead ..... |
JAPAN
Japanese stocks rose for a second day as companies from Asahi Glass Co. to Pacific Metals Co. forecast higher earnings, overshadowing concern that Greece's mounting deficit will derail a recovery in the European economy. Asahi Glass, Japan's No. 1 glassmaker, jumped 6.9% after forecasting a surge in annual profit. Pacific Metals, the country's top ferro-nickel producer, and GS Yuasa Corp. gained at least 7.3% after boosting their projections. Mitsui & Co., which counts commodities as its biggest source of profit, climbed 5.6% after oil and copper gained. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.3% to close at 10,092.19 in Tokyo. The broader Topix index added 1% to 892.16, with twice as many stocks advancing as falling. Japan's markets were closed for a holiday Thursday, when the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed the most since Feb. 3. For the week, the Topix was little changed after having posted three consecutive weekly slumps. The daily value of stocks traded in Tokyo this week has been less than the one-year average, as investors waited to see whether the European Union would seek to help Greece manage its budget deficit. Asahi Glass soared 6.9% to 946 Yen, sending its peers to the biggest gain among the Topix's 33 industry groups. The company said on Feb. 10 that net income will increase more than fourfold this year as demand recovers in emerging markets. Pacific Metals surged 7.3% to 617 Yen, after lifting its net-income forecast 24% for the year to March 31. GS Yuasa, Japan's first maker of lead storage batteries, rallied 9.7% to 598 Yen after the company boosted its full-year earnings projection by 40% owing to sales growth in China and Southeast Asia. GS Yuasa and Pacific Metals were the biggest and third-biggest winners on the Nikkei 225. Mitsui, Japan's second-biggest trading company by market value, climbed 5.6% to 1,350 Yen. Bigger rival Mitsubishi Corp., which gets 39% of its sales from commodities, added 3.3% to 2,225 Yen. Trading companies as a group were the biggest contributors to the Topix's advance. Copper futures for March delivery surged 4.8% in New York Thursday, the most since Aug. 21. Crude oil for March delivery gained 1% to $75.28 a barrel, the highest level since Feb. 3. Consumer lenders slumped after the Nikkei newspaper reported the scheduled implementation of the new law in June that limits total borrowing from consumer lenders to a third of a borrower's annual income will shrink demand. Aiful Corp. sank 6.6%, while Promise Co. dropped 7%. SOUTH KOREA Seoul shares slipped on Friday, led by techs and banks, with Hynix falling ahead of a deadline for preliminary bids, but Hanwha Securities rallied after it agreed to buy the units of Prudential Financial. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) ended down 0.26% at 1,593.66 points. Shares in Hanwha Securities rose 4.45% after Hanwha Group said South Korean brokerage Hanwha Securities signed an agreement on Friday to buy the two domestic units of US insurer Prudential Financial Inc. But Hynix Semiconductor fell 1.59% amid worries that no bidder may submit a letter of intent by the preliminary bid deadline. Its lead shareholder, Korea Exchange Bank, said after the market's close on Friday that Hynix has received no fresh bids for the firm. Other key technology issues turned lower following their recent strong gains. Shares in Samsung Electronics, the world's No.1 memory chip maker, fell 1.7%, and LG Display, the world's No.2 maker of LCD screens, lost 2.12% following three consecutive rising sessions. Meanwhile, retail issues also slipped. Lotte Shopping Co Ltd lost 1.56% and Shinsegae Co Ltd shed 0.6%. Shinsegae said late on Thursday its January sales fell 6.6% from a year ago. HONG KONG Hong Kong shares ended marginally easier on Friday, snapping three straight sessions of gains, as investors took profit ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, while China stocks rose on optimism about the near-term trend as concerns over policy tightening eased. The benchmark Hang Seng Index ended down 0.11%, or 22 points, at 20,268.69. The index ended the week 3.07% up, its biggest weekly gain in percentage terms in the past 10 weeks. The China Enterprises Index .HSCE of top locally listed mainland Chinese stocks was down 0.40% at 11,536.36. Investors took to the sidelines ahead of details of a bail-out plan for debt-laden Greece and that sent HSBC, the most actively traded stock, down 0.74% to HK$80.75. ICBC, China's largest lender, rose 1.1% to a week high at HK$5.66, before the stock trimmed gains and ended down 0.36% at HK$5.58. Market turnover fell to HK$45.67 billion ($5.9 billion), the lowest so far this year, from Thursday's HK$52.94 billion. Commodities stocks eased as investors locked in gains after their recent strength fuelled by news about the support plan for Greece. Shares of Sinopec fell 1.7% to a session low of HK$5.88 after a 2.2% rise the previous session, its biggest percentage gain since Dec. 14. The stocks ended at HK$5.92, still down one%. PetroChina also closed 0.81% down after a two% gain on Thursday when the stock ended at its highest close in a week. CITIC 1616 rose 4.3% to HK$2.40 its highest since Jan. 15, after the telecommuncations service firm said it would buy a stake in Macau's mobile operator Companhia de Telecomunicacoes de Macau for HK$1.4 billion ($180 million). The stocks ended up 3.9%. Casino stocks outperformed the market with NagaCorp, which operates a casino in Cambodia, surging 3.5% to its highest close in more than a month, after it said it expected revenue in 2010 to grow by 30% with future growth to be driven by rising Chinese visitors. Sands China, the Macau unit of Las Vegas Sands, climbed 3.97%. CHINA China's stocks rose, driving the benchmark index to its biggest weekly gain this year, as easing inflation delayed prospects for higher interest rates and signs of increasing demand for raw materials boosted miners. Jiangxi Copper Co., the nation's biggest producer of the metal, climbed 3.3% as copper prices jumped the most since August Thursday. China Shenhua Energy Co., the largest coal producer, rose 0.9% after sales and output increased last month. Changchun Department Jituan Store Co. led gains by Chinese retailers on the prospect of increased consumer spending during the Chinese Lunar New Year festival. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 32.64, or 1.1%, to 3,018.13 at the close. The gauge climbed 2.7% this week, the most since the last week of December, after domestic auto sales expanded and inflation slowed in January. The CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, gained 1% to 3,251.28. The nation's markets will be closed next week for the Lunar New Year. Shares worth 64.9 billion RMB ($9.5 billion) changed hands on the Shanghai stock market Thursday, a sixth day of declines, according to data. That's the lowest since March 16. Consumer prices climbed 1.5% from a year earlier, down from 1.9% in December, as food costs rose more slowly, the statistics bureau said Thursday. Speculation about further tightening in the short term will ease, wrote analysts led by Yu Jun at Citic Securities Co. in a report Friday. China's stock market is likely to fluctuate in the first half of 2010 as the withdrawal of stimulus policies weighs on liquidity and sentiment, according to the report. Commodity prices gained after China's lending surged to 1.39 trillion RMB in January, according to government data Thursday. China is the world's biggest user of industrial metals. Prices were also boosted by a report that showed US initial jobless applications dropped to the lowest level in five weeks. Copper futures for March delivery surged 4.8% to $3.1335 a Pound in New York Thursday, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Aug. 21. Gold added 1.7%, the most in more than a week, and crude oil rose 1%, a fourth day of gains. Shenhua climbed 0.9% to 29.43 RMB after saying coal sales rose 25% to 24.1 million metric tons in January from the same period last year while production gained 10% to 19.4 million tons. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China's biggest steelmaker, gained 2.4% to 8.02 RMB after increasing prices for March delivery as much as 7.4%. The stock rounded up a 9.3% gain this week. That's the biggest weekly advance since the period through Dec. 4. Property prices in 70 cities climbed at the fastest pace in 21 months in January and lending topped the previous three months combined, government reports showed Thursday. The People's Bank of China will "gradually guide monetary conditions back to normal levels from the counter-crisis mode," it said in a quarterly monetary policy report Thursday. The previous report didn't refer to ending an emergency stance. The prospect that China will raise interest rates to cool growth in the world's third-largest economy and avert asset bubbles has dragged the Shanghai Composite down 7.9% this year. The gauge surged 80% in 2009 as a record credit boom and government stimulus spending drove the economic recovery. China's gross domestic product expanded 10.7% last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007. Changchun Department jumped the 10% daily cap to 8.17 RMB, the most since July 7. Hainan Zhuxin Investment Co., which operates the Hainan No. 1 Department Store, advanced 5% to 10.57 RMB. GF Securities was by far the biggest gainer of the day, rising nearly five-fold to 50.05 RMB after achieving a "backdoor listing" by acquiring Yanbian Road Co, whose shares were suspended from trading since October 2006. The benchmark index gained 64% during that period. TAIWAN The market in Manila was closed Friday for a Public Holiday. THE PHILIPPINES The local stock market rose sharply on Friday tracking gains made overnight by its US counterpart after the European Union stepped in to stabilize fiscally troubled Greece. The Philippine Stock Exchange index rose 40.77 or 1.4%, bringing it to 2,949.65 by the end of trading. Trading was relatively heavy with 1.7 billion shares changing hands by the end of the session, worth P3.2 billion. Advancers swamped decliners 94 to 23, with 52 shares remaining unchanged. Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. was the top traded issue, accounting for 12.61% of total transactions for the day. It was followed by PLDT, whose trades accounted for 11.32%. Metrobank closed at P40.50 per share, up by P1.50, while PLDT ended the session at P2,530, up by P10. Mining stocks led the charge with the mining index rising 2.3%. SINGAPORE The shares prices in Singapore rose 5.27 points or 0.19% on Friday with the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) closing at 2,758.90 points. The overall volume stood at 1.21 billion shares worth 1.13 billion Singapore Dollars (about 801.4 million US Dollars). Among advancers in Singapore, CapitaLand gained 1.8% and Noble Group rose 1.7%. MALAYSIA Trading on the Bursa Malaysia stayed relatively quiet on Friday, Feb 12, ahead of the long Chinese New Year holidays. The stock exchange will be closed Monday and Tuesday. Trading volume dwindled further - to just 560 million shares on Friday from Thursday's already low level of 646 million shares. Some investors are already away for the long break. Other investors preferred not to enter the market aggressively, so as to not expose themselves to Wall Street's volatility and external risks. Upon resumption of trading after a long break, the stock market tends to adjust itself depending on how Wall Street and regional markets fared. The FBM KLCI was in positive territory throughout the day, ending the day up four points at 1,253.4. Market breadth was positive, with advancing stocks beating declining ones by a three-to-one margin. Actively traded stocks include Talam, KNM, LCL and Axiata. Gainers include Hai-O, PPB, Daiboci and 3A Resources. The losers were mostly smaller stocks, which fell on thin volume. Alliance Financial Group Bhd recorded a higher pre-tax profit of RM131 million for the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2009 following a lower allowance for losses on loans and financing. For the nine months period, the group recorded a pre-tax profit of RM301.5 million compared to the RM297.6 million registered in the same period of 2008, primarily due to the recovery of a corporate loan as well as reduction of the general allowance rate to 1.5%. In a statement here on Friday, its chairman Datuk Oh Chong Peng said the group was optimistic about the current year prospect, following an improvement in the Malaysian economy. The ringgit closed better against the US Dollar on Friday. The local unit was traded at 3.4160/4190 against the greenback compared with 3.4250/4300 Thursday. INDONESIA Indonesian shares were closed higher on Friday, supported by mining shares. The market index was closed 44.1 points, or 2.07% higher to 2,168.934 with transaction volume of 4.279 billion shares worth 3.068 trillion rupiah (about 327.6 million US Dollars). In Jakarta, shares in PT XL Axiata, Indonesia's third-largest mobile phone operator, jumped 7.7% after the company reported strong earnings. Bakrieland Development rose 2.2%, with broker BNI Securities advising the stock a a "buy" on expectations the firm's plans to develop property around the Kanci-Pejagan toll road in Java will support growth. THAILAND The SET in Bangkok closed up 0.38% Friday and ended at 698.03. Some 1.41 billion shares worth 12.39 billion baht (about 375.45 million US Dollars) changed hands. Shares in Advanced Info Service, Thailand's top mobile phone operator, rose more than 6% to a three-month high on Friday after the company announced a special dividend. AIS, 21.4% owned by Singapore Telecommunications, said it planned a special dividend for 2009 of 5 baht per share, on top of the 6.3 baht normal dividend for the full year. [nID:SGE619063] Based on prices at the midday close, that represented a dividend yield of about 13%. INDIA Indian markets were closed Friday for a local holiday. AUSTRALIA The Australian share market closed mildly higher Friday after rising resources stocks outweighed weakness among the banks. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed up 7.8 points, or 0.17%, to 4,562.1 points, while the broader All Ordinaries index gained 13 points, or 0.28%, to 4,588.8 points. On the Sydney Futures Exchange at 1615 AEDT, the March share price index contract was four points higher at 4,526 on 25,953 contracts. Shares in mining giant Rio Tinto were up $2.22, or 3.18%, to $71.94, after investors liked the company's 2009 full year earnings report released Thursday evening. BHP Billiton rose 47 cents to $40.82, while Fortescue put on 18 cents to $4.93.Among the gold miners, Lihir was steady at $2.86 and Newcrest gained 24 cents to $32.68. Newcrest said Friday it was considering bringing in a partner for the O'Callaghans tungsten deposit near its flagship Telfer gold mine in Western Australia. Gold producer Ramelius Resources fell 1.5 cents to 60 cents after failing in its takeover bid for Dioro Exploration NL. Shares in Dioro were down one cent, at $1.235. At 1622 AEDT, the spot price of gold in Sydney was $US1,089.40 per fine ounce, up $US11.20 from Thursday's closing price of $US1,078.20. The big banks were mainly weaker, with Commonwealth Bank down 70 cents to $52.30, National Australia Bank off 28 cents to $24.40, ANZ off 16 cents to $20.59 but Westpac bucked the trend, rising 23 cents to $23.20. Westpac Friday received approval to form a single authorised deposit-taking institution with wholly owned subsidiary St George Bank. Macquarie group fell 38 cents to $47.35. Telstra shares fell 10 cents, or 3.11%, to $3.12, which came on top of share price losses on Thursday when the telco announced a drop in first half profit. Construction giant Leighton Holdings upgraded its annual earnings guidance after more than doubling its first half profit, but its shares fell $1.01, or 2.64%, to $37.29. Energy stocks were mainly higher, with Oil Search up six cents to $5.30, gas giant Santos rising 10 cents to $13.35 and Origin Energy was 16 cents stronger at $16.40. Woodside Petroleum lost a little ground, falling 20 cents to $42.80. Retail stocks were mainly stronger, with whitegoods and electronics retailer Clive Peeters flagging a better than expected first half result. Shares in Clive Peeters were up three cents to 40 cents. Coles owner Wesfarmers rose 72 cents to $29.03 and supermarket rival Woolworths gained 17 cents to $25.55. Among upmarket retailers, Myer put on two cents to $3.38 and David Jones was steady at $4.84. The media sector reported some gains, with News Corp rising 35 cents to $17.32 and its non-voting scrip up 23 cents to $14.70. Fairfax put on one cent to $1.75 and Consolidated Media strengthened two cents to $3.02. At 1637 AEDT the top-traded stock by volume was Samson Oil and Gas Ltd, with 208.44 million shares worth $5.78 million changing hands. Its shares were up 0.4 cents, or 16.67%, at 2.8 cents. Preliminary national turnover was 2.49 billion shares worth $5.35 billion, with 654 stocks up, 393 down and 322 unchanged. NEW ZEALAND New Zealand shares ended higher Friday despite a fall by heavyweight bellwether, Telecom Corp., which declined after its second quarter result. The NZX-50 Index rose 0.5%, or 15.20 points, to 3,080.47, and over the week was flat. Telecom fell 0.4% to NZ$2.30 having initially risen on its result despite its full year net profit guidance being lowered to the lower end of the previous range. Lee and other analysts said the effective downgrade had been expected and the numbers were largely in line. He said many uncertainties, such as its participation in the national fast broadband plan, remain for the stock. Goldman Sachs JBWere broker Peter Sigley said that despite technical problems with its new mobile network, Telecom appeared to be outstripping rival Vodafone "quite nicely" in new mobile sign-ups, while reasonable progress had been made by the company in containing costs. Citi analyst Phil Campbell said while Telecom shares remained "cheap", the company still faced several challenges including the slow economy, brand damage from mobile network outages and its exposure to a more competitive telecommunications landscape through Australian unit AAPT. Retail stocks were largely unscathed by much weaker than forecast retail sales data in the crucial Christmas period. Indeed, outdoor goods retailer Kathmandu was actually the top gainer, with a 4.2% to NZ$1.98. Lee attributed the gain to weakening of New Zealand against the Australian Dollar, ironically on the retail sales figures. Pike River Coal rose 3.4% to NZ$0.92 on strengthening global commodity prices. Market heavyweight Fletcher Building rose 1.2% to NZ$7.54 to underpin the market, reversing recent weakness. That had been spurred most recently by a weak profit report Thursday by Steel & Tube that continued to weigh on that company as it lost a further 3.5% to NZ$2.60. |
| Global Commodities
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' ..... |
Cold winter weather and heavy snow in the US supported crude oil prices this week but commodity markets were choppy amid concerns about sovereign debt problems. Nymex March West Texas Intermediate fell $2 to $73.28 a barrel on Friday but was up 2.9% on the week after heavy snow fell across much of the north-east US. ICE April Brent lost $1.87 to $72.25 a barrel but was up 3.8% over the week. Delayed US inventories data showed crude stocks had risen 2.4m barrels last week, above the consensus forecast for an increase of 1.5m barrels. Distillate stocks (including heating oil) fell 0.3m barrels last week, less than the consensus forecast for a drop of 1.9m barrels as the extreme winter weather arrived. Nymex March heating oil fell 5.8 cents, or 3%, to $1.9047 a gallon, up 1% this week. Petrol inventories increased 2.3m barels last week, well above the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.5m barrels. Nymex March RBOB unleaded gasoline fell 3.9 cents, or 2%, to $1.8971 a gallon, up 0.6% this week. The International Energy Agency forecast an "oil-less" recovery for the west this year and said the increase in global demand growth would come entirely from emerging markets. The energy watchdog of the western world said global oil demand would average 86.5m b/d in 2010 after increasing its growth forecast by 120,000 barrels per day to 1.6m b/d. US natural gas prices rose with more cold temperatures forecast. Nymex March Henry Hub rose 10 cents, or 1.8%, to $5.496 per million British thermal units, flat over the week. US gas stocks fell 191bn cubic feet last week, against a consensus forecast for a drop of 180bn cu ft. US demand for natural gas should rise 0.4% this year to 62.5bn cubic feet per day, according to the US government, which had previously anticipated a drop in consumption in 2010. Although demand from the power generation sector for natural gas was forecast to fall in 2010, the US government expects this to be offset by consumption growth in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors over the year. Base metals rose this week after China reported an unexpected fall in inflation in January and stronger-than-expected lending data. However, the rally was abruptly halted on Friday after China took further steps to cool its economy by tightening liquidity conditions. Copper dropped 1.7% to $6,815 a tonne, pegging its weekly gain back to 8.5%. Chinese buyers will be absent next week for new year holidays and dealers expect a substantial drop in trading volumes. Over the week, aluminium added 3.8% to $2,055 a tonne, while short-closing helped nickel to gain 9.1% to $18,600 a tonne. Gold rose 2.5% to $1,092 a troy ounce this week as the Dollar slipped against the Euro until late in the session Friday. |
| Global Currencies
In for a Penny, in for a Pound ..... |
The Dollar rose to a 9-month high against the Euro as worries about bank lending curbs in China and European debt woes drove investors to safe havens like the Dollar. In late afternoon trading in New York, the Euro fell to $1.3612 from $1.3686 late Thursday. Earlier in the day, it dropped as low as $1.3533, its weakest point since May 2009. The Euro is now well off its recent high level of $1.51 reached last November. The British Pound slipped to $1.5669 from $1.5697, and the Dollar rose to 89.96 Japanese Yen from 89.74 Yen. China told its banks to build more reserves and cut back on lending for the second time in a month. That raised fears that growth would slow in China, which could hurt companies that export and do business there. Meanwhile European economic data deepened worries about the region's ability to deal with swelling budget deficits in Greece and other weak economies in the region. On Friday, the European Union said countries that use the Euro grew a meager 0.1% in the fourth quarter, while Germany didn't grow at all. Germany is the continent's biggest economy. That followed Thursday's pledge from Europe to help Greece with its debt crisis. Despite offering few details of how a bailout might work, the move raised confidence that instability would be contained. Still, the lack of a concrete plan left currency traders wary. In other trading, the Dollar rose to 1.0509 Canadian Dollars from 1.0497 Canadian Dollars, and climbed to 1.0773 Swiss francs from 1.0707 francs. South Africa's Rand fell as much as 1.3% against the Dollar on Friday, tracking a weaker Euro and also in line with other emerging market currencies hit by monetary tightening measures from China. The Rand dropped to a session low of 7.7458 against the greenback and was at 7.7175 by 1538 GMT, still down 1.07% compared with Thursday's close at 7.6359. In Chinese news, the US Dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese RMB as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8333 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8338. One day after People's Bank of China reconfirmed it will "gradually guide monetary conditions back to normal levels from the counter-crisis mode," the central bank lifted reserve requirements by 0.5%, effective 25 February. The central bank is clearly trying to contain inflationary pressures and avert asset bubbles. There is some speculation that the RMB has depreciated over the past couple of days ahead of the Chinese New Year as a signal that China is displeased with the US's recent military deal with Taiwan and Obama's plans to meet the Dalai Lama. |
| China
Key news eminating from China this week ..... |
 China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the fastest-growing economy after loan growth accelerated and property prices surged. The reserve requirement will increase 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, effective Feb. 25, the People's Bank of China said on its Web site Friday. The current level is 16% for big banks and 14% for smaller ones. Stocks reversed gains in Europe after the announcement on concern that tighter lending in China will damp the global economic recovery. Policy makers aim to avert asset bubbles and restrain inflation after banks extended 19% of this year's 7.5 trillion RMB ($1.1 trillion) lending target in January and property prices climbed the most in 21 months. The central bank moved after Chinese markets closed and on the eve of a weeklong Lunar New Year holiday when the nation moves into the Year of the Tiger from the Year of the Ox. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index and commodities fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.1% before the announcement. Record lending and a 4 trillion RMB stimulus package have helped the nation to lead the recovery from the first global recession since World War II. Investors' concern about investment bubbles in China, and what action the government may take to prevent or deflate them, has mounted this year. The central bank said Thursday that it wanted to gradually normalize monetary conditions from a "crisis mode" after gross domestic product grew 10.7% in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in two years. It also said that not all countries will exit stimulus policies at the same time. Policy makers are yet to drop the RMB's effective peg to the US Dollar, which was adopted in July 2008 to aid the nation's exporters, stoking friction with the US and Europe. Credit Suisse Group AG. estimated that Friday's move will remove about 300 billion RMB from a financial system also facing inflows of cash from investors betting on the nation's recovery and likely gains by the RMB. The nation's foreign- exchange reserves swelled to a record $2.4 trillion in December, partly on inflows of "hot money," or speculative capital. The central bank on Jan. 12 increased banks' reserve requirements for the first time since June 2008. The latest move will soak up liquidity from maturing central-bank bills and also money injected into the financial system for the coming holiday, China International Capital Corp. said. ********************************************* China's inflation slowdown in January may provide only temporary respite for policy makers after property prices and lending surged in the world's fastest- growing major economy. Consumer prices climbed 1.5% from a year earlier, down from 1.9% in December, as food costs rose more slowly, the statistics bureau said in Beijing Thursday. By the end of June, inflation will accelerate to 3.6% Weaker inflation is a temporary blip and consumer prices may resume rising more quickly in February and peak at about 6% in August. Causes will include credit growth, raw- material costs, property-price gains, and low bases for comparison in 2009. Property prices in 70 cities climbed at the fastest pace in 21 months in January and lending of 1.39 trillion RMB ($203 billion) topped the previous three months combined, government reports showed Thursday. Interest rates may rise as early as March after policy makers already this year ordered banks to set aside larger reserves, tightened home lending and targeted lower credit growth than in 2009. A return to normal monetary conditions will be "gradual," the People's Bank of China said in a quarterly report Thursday evening. The central bank reiterated that it will guide "reasonable" credit growth and said it will "allow interest rates to play a role in adjustments," without elaborating. A weeklong Lunar New Year holiday that fell in January in 2009 and February this year is distorting China's economic data. China International Capital Corp. forecast that inflation will quicken to more than 3% this month, with CICC citing holiday spending and a low level for comparison in 2009. January's inflation rate was less than the 2.1% median estimate. Non-deliverable RMB forwards strengthened 0.2% as traders bet that the currency will advance 2.5% against the Dollar in the next year. Thursday's data showed underlying inflation pressures, with producer prices climbing 4.3% from a year earlier, the most since October 2008, according to the statistics bureau. Lenovo Group Ltd., China's biggest personal-computer maker, warned last week that profit margins this quarter may be eroded by more costly parts including computer-memory chips. M1, a measure of currency in circulation and demand deposits, rose a record 39%, the central bank data showed. Deutsche Bank AG said this indicated "a further rise in the velocity of money, which will drive up inflation," while Morgan Stanley said the holiday accounted for the change. Growth in M2, the broadest measure of money supply, slowed to 26%, the central bank said. In its quarterly monetary report, the bank said that it expects M2 to increase 17% this year, a target that it missed by more than 10 percentage points in 2009. China's 9.35 trillion RMB of loans in the past year has added to the risk that the economy may overheat as it rebounds from the financial crisis. Gross domestic product grew 10.7% last quarter from a year earlier. The latest consumer-price number gives policy makers some breathing space, but they have to remain hawkish on the risk of inflation. January's lending was 14% less than a year earlier, after the government targeted a reduction in new loans this year to 7.5 trillion RMB from a record 9.59 trillion RMB in 2009. Still, the pace of credit expansion in January was excessive. The policy goal of stable credit expansion has to be backed up by forceful measures. Central bank adviser Fan Gang said 1 February that asset price bubbles are the "real worry" for China's economy. Bank of China Ltd., the nation's third-largest lender by market value, said Feb. 3 that it had reduced discounts for some mortgages, citing rising property-market risks. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told reporters this week that price increases will be "closely" monitored, after saying last year that developing economies can accept inflation of more than 2%. ********************************************* China's central bank signaled a "gradual" exit from monetary stimulus as the recovery in the world's third-largest economy gains momentum. The People's Bank of China will "gradually guide monetary conditions back to normal levels from the counter-crisis mode," it said in a quarterly monetary policy report on its Web site. The previous report didn't refer to ending an emergency stance. January economic data released Friday showed lending surged and property prices climbed by the most in 21 months while inflation moderated. The central bank warned that risks include an unwinding of stimulus policies in major developed economies that may trigger a reversal of inflows of capital. Policy makers will consider "the need for economic growth, changes in inflation, and domestic and global liquidity," when restoring monetary conditions to normal, the report said. The central bank repeated a call for global coordination of stimulus exits. "Before major developed economies fully exit their abnormal policies, global liquidity may remain ample and keep pushing up asset prices," the report said. "But once major developed economies start to exit, global capital flows may reverse and global asset prices, especially asset prices in emerging markets, may see volatilities." China's gross domestic product expanded 10.7% last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, and the government has said that managing inflation expectations is one of its key goals for 2010. The central bank reiterated that it will guide "reasonable" credit growth in 2010 and said it will "allow interest rates to play a role in adjustments," without elaborating. It said it will use multiple monetary-policy tools after raising banks' reserve requirements last month and guiding bill yields higher at auctions. The report reiterated a moderately loose monetary policy and that the central bank will keep the RMB "basically stable." The People's Bank of China said that it expects M2 money supply to expand 17% this year, a target that it missed by more than 10 percentage points in 2009. M2 rose 26% in January from a year earlier, Friday's data showed. While seeing "more positive" factors for the Chinese economy in 2010, the central bank warned that challenges include "unbalanced" growth in domestic demand, instability in prices, and intensifying trade frictions. China's lending surged to 1.39 trillion RMB ($203 billion) in January and property prices climbed as banks extended more credit in anticipation the government will tighten monetary policy. Lending was more than in the previous three months combined, data on the central bank's Web site showed Friday. Property prices in 70 cities rose 9.5% from a year earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission said separately. ********************************************* China's exports and imports continued to recover in January from the slump at the start of 2009 according to new government figures which underlined the growing importance of other developing economies in China's trade. The headline numbers suggested a strong rebound in trade last month with exports rising 20% compared with January 2009 and imports surging by 85%. However, the figures were distorted by the timing of Chinese New Year holidays, which meant that the economy operated for one week less last January. The import figures were also flattered by the fact that imports at the start of last year were at their lowest level since 2005. In terms of volume of trade, the January numbers were actually below December's, with exports down from $130.7bn in December to $109.5bn, and imports falling from $112.3bn to $95.3bn. RBS calculated that exports were down 2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis month-on-month. Due to the different timing of the Chinese New Year holiday year-on-year comparisons are almost meaningless for most macro indicators in China in January and February. A sensible approach is to calculate year-on-year changes for the combined period of January and February. The January figures did underscore that the recent recovery in China's trade has been skewed towards markets in other developing economies, in some of which China has become the biggest trading partner over the last year. Imports from Russia were up 162% year-on-year last month, from Brazil by 142%, from Asean by 117% and from India by 112%, while exports to Asean rose 52.8% and to Brazil by 78.7%. The proportion of China's exports going to the US, the European Union and Japan fell from 50% at the start of last year to 44% in December, while developing countries' share had increased to 56%. Economists said that as the January figures did not provide a clear indication about the strength of recovery in exports, it could delay any decision on whether to begin appreciating the Chinese currency despite mounting international pressure. A front page editorial in the official China Securities Journal on Wednesday played down speculation of an imminent move on currency policy. "Given the current situation, the conditions are not right for a big appreciation in at least the first half," the paper said. ********************************************* It was meant to be a big leap forward for Sijia Group, a Chinese company that makes bouncy castles among other inflatable and waterproof products. Following months of preparations, Sijia had been planning to make its debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange. But things have not gone to plan. Just over a week ago the company scrapped its initial public offering at the eleventh hour, blaming "current market conditions" after investors were unwilling to pay a high enough price for the shares. Sijia is one of dozens of companies worldwide that have cancelled or scaled back IPOs in recent weeks as markets have tumbled and investors have become more discriminating. "Sentiment has definitely taken a turn for the worse," said one Hong Kong-based banker who predicted that certain sectors - such as Chinese property - will struggle to raise equity capital this year. If sentiment remains weak, Hong Kong has the most to lose. Last year, as markets soared from their lows, the territory raised about $30bn in IPOs - more than anywhere else in the world. Market participants are now scaling back their expectations for Hong Kong and mainland China's IPO market in 2010, predicting a year of volatility. A number of big deals have already been put on ice. Wilmar International, the world's largest listed palm oil company, planned to raise as much as $3.5bn in a Hong Kong listing of its China unit, but abandoned the idea last week. In a further sign of weakening sentiment, two Chinese companies - International Mining Machinery (IMM) and Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings - both priced their IPOs last week at the bottom end of their intended ranges. A major reason investors have lost some of their appetite for IPOs is the poor performance of recent offerings. In one high-profile case, Rusal, the aluminium company controlled by Oleg Deripaska, the Russian oligarch, plunged 10.6% on its Hong Kong market debut last month following a $2.2bn IPO. The flop was far from unprecedented. Even last year, investors were bruised as many newly listed stocks subsequently underperformed the wider Hong Kong market. In Shanghai, investors got a shock late last month when China XD Electric, a maker of electricity transmission equipment, became the first company in more than five years to fall on its first day of trading on the Chinese mainland. The decline was the biggest sign yet that enthusiasm for IPOs on the mainland has been waning after last year's deluge. In the second half of 2009, when markets were booming, almost all newly listed shares experienced double or even triple-digit percentage jumps on their Shanghai debuts. But this year, as the Shanghai Composite has fallen more than 10%, those first-day pops have become increasingly muted. In another rare event for Shanghai, China First Heavy Industries, which debuts Friday, last week became the first company in more than a year to fail to raise the maximum amount sought in an IPO on the mainland. With a fat pipeline of companies looking to raise money in Shanghai and Hong Kong in the coming months, executives may have to settle for less than they had hoped to get the deals done. Sijia, for its part, plans to return to the market. They will keep watching the market situation and will come back once the market is more stable. But with markets gripped by fears of further monetary tightening in China and a sovereign debt crisis in Europe, there is little agreement about when that time will come. ********************************************* China Milk Products Group Ltd., a supplier of raw milk and dairy cow embryos, said it's defaulting on some repayment obligations because it hasn't enough money outside China to pay for early redemption of its bonds. "The company is currently exploring different options with a view to meeting its funding requirements," according to a filing with Singapore's stock exchange Friday. The notes are China Milk's $150 million of zero coupon convertible bonds due 2012 and issued in January 2007. China Milk said Jan. 5 it had received "valid put exercise notices" from holders of about $146 million of the notes and was "awaiting clearance" from China for the remittance of $170.56 million so it could make the required payments. The delay was "administrative and procedural in nature." China Milk said in Friday's filing that it will try to work out an agreement with bondholders. "Any remittance of funds out of China entails a series of procedural steps and regulatory clearances in respect of which the company is currently unable to gauge the length of such a process," the statement said. Daqing-based China Milk also said it hadn't appointed any legal advisers at this stage. China Milk said Feb. 1 its Chief Financial Officer, Choi Ho Yan, 33, resigned to "pursue other career interests." Trade in the company's shares was halted on Feb. 9. The stock has fallen 30% this month. |
| Summary
The coming week looks like ..... |
In the US, earnings from Kraft, Merck, Hewlett-Packard and Wal-Mart - all Dow Components - are on tap next week. New January housing starts and inflation data will also be jammed into a market-week shortened by the Presidents Day holiday Monday. Kraft is expected to report improved fourth-quarter results on Tuesday as it benefits from falling commodity costs and growth in emerging markets. Meanwhile, profit is seen holding steady while revenue jumps at Merck, which also reports Tuesday. The giant drug maker closed its acquisition of Schering-Plough during the quarter and said it might not be done shopping. Hewlett-Packard, which reports fiscal first-quarter results Wednesday, is likely to show improvement on increasing demand. And Wal-Mart, which recently has been cutting jobs and outsourcing some marketing functions, is expected to report better fiscal fourth-quarter results Thursday. The government will release measures of January retail and wholesale inflation Thursday and next Friday, respectively. Both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index have remained relatively flat as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates low and consumers limit spending amid high unemployment. The government will report on January housing starts as well as industrial production Wednesday. A day earlier, the National Association of Home Builders releases its February housing market index, which in January fell to a six-month low. Reports on regional manufacturing activity are due Tuesday from the New York Fed and Thursday from the Philadelphia Fed. The nonprofit Conference Board also issues its January index of leading economic indicators Thursday, a day after the Fed releases minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee, which controls a key interest rate. Investors will seek further clarity on the Greek aid package next week when they will also assess the prospect of prolonged low interest rates in the developed world as the euro debt crisis forces fiscal austerity. Investors, disappointed by a vague pledge by euro zone leaders to help Greece, are looking for greater detail from the meeting of the 16-nation bloc's finance ministers next week. The unexpectedly rapid flare-up in the debt crisis and the threat of contagion to other highly indebted countries are forcing governments to tighten their finances and unwind fiscal support, leaving major central banks to singlehandedly aid the economy with low interest rates. Next week's inflation data and central bank minutes from the United States and Britain will shed more light onto the timing of monetary exits after the Federal Reserve detailed how it would begin to unwind its extraordinary stimulus. But the question now is whether central banks, especially the European Central Bank, could raise interest rates at all this year. You have a situation where very little has been done to stimulate the economy. I can't believe that the ECB will not raise interest rates in 2010 because I can't believe Eurozone growth will be sufficiently robust or inflation will be a meaningful threat.
The prospective bailout package for Greece will likely be used as a blueprint for other sovereign events in the economic and monetary union ... an EMU-wide bailout of Greece will have long-term consequences, and it is far from a free lunch for anyone involved obviously. The UK will be closely watching data next week; the inflation report this week also signalled minutes from the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), out on Wednesday, could show a split in opinion over policymakers' recent decision to freeze interest rates and pause the QE scheme. The Bank said rate-setters had a 'range of views' over the risks to inflation, while the weakness of the UK's crawl out of recession is also likely to have tested resolve. Six quarters of decline came to an end in the last quarter of 2009 with an upturn of just 0.1% and the Bank has subsequently reduced its growth forecasts. The inflation report warned that the extent of future Government belt tightening remained a key uncertainty over its predictions - which are based on existing policy and cannot take into account the likely direction after this year's general election. But the extent of the challenge will be illustrated on Thursday, with the release of the latest official borrowing figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). State borrowing is predicted to reach a record £178bn this year as tax incomes have dwindled in the recession while spending on unemployment benefits have increased. January typically enjoys a seasonal surplus, thanks to income and corporation tax inflows, leading to a £1bn repayment. More benign recent trading in the gaming sector has raised hopes of a better outlook from under-pressure bookmaker Ladbrokes when it announces its full-year results on Thursday. The firm issued a profits warning in October - with a 58% tumble in its operating surplus for the third quarter after it suffered a barren start to the English Premier League football season. Analysts expect group operating profit for the year to now be a little above the £170m mark, which would represent a fall of around 30%. Headline writers will be sharpening their pencils over the week-end in expectation of Barclays announcing bumper profits on Tuesday. Expectations are for pre-tax profits of around £7.56bn, up from £6.08bn in 2008. Revenue is tipped to leap to £31.32bn from £23.35bn the year before. The bank, which avoided having the British government as a shareholder by persuading sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf States to pump money into the company, has seen its shares rise by around 150% in the last year. Growth has been driven by a strong performance at its investment banking division, Barclays Capital (BarCap), where the acquisition of some of the remnants of Lehman Brothers has proved a shrewd move. BarCap is estimated to have taken £13.2bn in revenues 2009, and the headline writers are lying in wait to find out how much of that will be dished out to the unit's high fliers. Rumours circulating on Friday suggest that BarCap has decided that its UK employees should not bear the brunt alone of the impact of a UK tax on bonuses of more than £25,000, and will spread the impact across the business worldwide. In Australia, the minutes of the February RBA meeting should make for interesting reading Tuesday, given their surprise "no change". Other than that, it is quiet next week down under. Japan will release its fourth quarter GDP on Monday and the Bank of Japan will make a rate decision on Thursday - although no change is expected there either. Finally, past experience here in China has taught me that the Government in Beijing use holiday periods to announce new proposals - knowing full well that with markets closed, reaction to a certain extent can be controlled. Last night was no exception with China announcing about an hour after everyone finished work for Chinese New Year, new monetary tightening measures. I don't believe that this will be the only signal coming out of China this holiday period and so whilst domestic focus concentrates on the two 'F's - 'Fireworks and Food' - I would not rule out Beijing slipping in another 'fastball' or two before the week-long holiday period is over. The message coming out of China in recent weeks has been quite clear - policymakers are becoming more concerned about containing inflationary expectations and managing the risk of asset price bubbles as a result of last year's aggressive expansion of credit.
On that note, I will close this week's Newsletter and wish you all a Happy Chinese New Year ....
Gong Xi Fa Cai |
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Newsletter Written By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International | |
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