Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
I have witnessed this week the usual 'drivel' coming from the mouths of so-called 'financial experts' within the world's media. You can tell who's on 'commission' and who's not - that's for sure! The rallying cry from these analytical 'brains' this week has been unanimous, from New York to London and from Hong Kong to Tokyo - "buy now, stocks are cheap". I have to say that stocks are NOT cheap and you cannot judge generic stocks on 'better than expected' earnings reports (that as mentioned last week, are not about growth, but purely cost-cutting mainly through jobs-slashing) and adding the 'sweetener' that stocks are cheap at the moment. Cheap compared with what? Cheap compared to when they were at their record highs; sure, but they still cannot be called cheaper, 'cheaper' would be a better description! Ladies and Gentlemen, if you think that my negativity once again abounds, please let me give you three headlines from this week - three that in my humble opinion, paint a good picture of where we are really at now, as to where the 'salesmen' would have you believe: Picture One - Jobless Claims and Unemployment More Americans unexpectedly filed applications for unemployment insurance last week; signaling firings stepped up as the economy slowed. Initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ended Aug. 7, the highest level since mid February, Labour Department figures showed Friday in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped, while those getting supplemental benefits surged by 1.34 million reflecting the government's extension of eligibility. Companies may be losing confidence in the recovery and are hesitant to hire, raising the risk of further erosion in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers this week said growth "is likely to be more modest" than they previously projected, prompting central bankers to take additional steps to spur a rebound. Economists forecast claims would fall to 465,000, according to the median of 42 projections. Estimates ranged from 450,000 to 480,000. The government revised the prior week's claims figure up to 482,000 from a previously reported 479,000. Prices of goods imported into the US rose in July for the first time in three months, led by higher fuel costs, another Labour Department report showed Friday. The 0.2% increase in the import-price index was smaller than projected and followed a 1.3% June drop. Prices excluding energy fell 0.3%. There were no special factors influencing last week's data, a Labour Department spokesman told reporters as the figures were being released. The four-week moving average of claims climbed to 473,500 from 459,250, Friday's report showed. The number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits fell by 118,000 to 4.45 million in the week ended July 31, from 4.57 million the prior week. The continuing claims figure does not include those receiving extended benefits under federal programs. The number of Americans who've used up traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments soared by 1.34 million to 5.28 million in the week ended July 24. That was the week legislation resuming eligibility went into effect. While companies have added workers to their payrolls seven straight months, firings have remained elevated as the economic recovery shows signs of slowing. Private firms added 71,000 jobs in July, fewer than economists had forecast, according to government figures released on 6 August. CareFusion, the maker of products to reduce hospital infections and monitor medical safety, said Tuesday it will cut about 700 jobs as part of a restricting designed to eliminate layers of management and lower costs. The San Diego-based company employs more than 15,000 people, it said this week, and was spun off last year from Cardinal Health Inc. Congress this week passed legislation providing $26 billion in aid to state governments that is designed to prevent thousands of layoffs of teachers and other public service employees. Weaker sales and declining income tax revenue have left states with budget gaps totaling $84 billion, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Every state except Vermont is required to balance its budget, forcing spending cuts, tax increases or both -- actions Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week are contributing to the nation's sluggish recovery. The Fed on Aug. 10 held its benchmark interest rate at a record low and announced it will reinvest principal payments on mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury securities, an effort to bolster economic growth. "The pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. "To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level." Picture Two - Housing Foreclosures Nan Holmes, a senior escrow officer at a title insurer, says her insider's view of the local market gave her the confidence three years ago to pay $370,000 for a new home in Boise, Idaho. She got a price she liked from the builder and 100% bank financing. That was before the bottom fell out of the housing market in California, Nevada and Florida as borrowers with bad credit began defaulting in record numbers, setting off a recession. Holmes, who had earned $150,000 a year when real estate was booming, saw her compensation shrink by half when business cooled, forcing her to dip into savings and sell jewelry. She stopped paying the mortgage in April and has put the house on the market for $145,000 less than she owes the bank. "How long will it take for the market to turn so I can just break even?" Holmes, 55, said as she sat in her house in Boise's tree-lined Collister neighborhood, four miles (6.4 kilometers) from the state capitol. Home foreclosures are climbing in the Northwest and Midwest, areas that had earlier dodged the worst of the mortgage crisis, according to real estate data firm RealtyTrac Inc. With 14.6 million Americans out of work and consumer spending declining, further weakness in housing could push the economy back into recession, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Aug. 1. Foreclosure rates in Utah, Idaho, Illinois and Colorado rose in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, and rank among the 10 highest in the country. The number of homes seized by lenders at least doubled in 19 states and more than tripled in seven of them, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac. Last month, 325,229 US properties got a notice of default, auction or bank repossession, RealtyTrac said Friday in a report. While that's an increase of 4% from June, the number was down almost 10% from a year earlier. One in 397 households received a filing. Lenders seized 92,858 properties in July, the second-highest monthly tally since RealtyTrac began records in January 2005. "The numbers are exploding due to unemployment and economic displacement," said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac. "We will see them get a lot worse unless we see some job creation." Initial jobless claims rose in July and unemployment stood at 9.5%, near a 27-year high, Labour Department figures show. More than 4.5 million people are collecting unemployment benefits and an additional 3.9 million are getting emergency and extended payments. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress on July 21 the outlook is "unusually uncertain." Chicago lost 76,000 jobs in the year through June, the most in any metropolitan area tracked by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics. Denver lost 18,900, Detroit 18,700. Employment dropped 4.1% in Grand Junction, Colorado, and 2.7% in Bend, Oregon, the data show. Home seizures soared 822% in Idaho in the second quarter, and the state had the seventh-highest foreclosure rate, according to RealtyTrac. Boise's median house price was $140,100 in the quarter, down 34% from the peak $212,800 in 2007, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The metropolitan area, home to a third of Idaho's 1.54 million residents, has been pummeled by housing-related construction and retail job losses, as well as layoffs at chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. and grocer Albertsons, said Michael Ferguson, the state's chief economist. Idaho's jobless rate was 8.8% in July, up from 8.2% a year earlier and 2.9% in July 2007. In Charter Pointe, a development built on corn fields 11 miles from downtown, more than half of the homes listed for sale are bank-owned or "underwater," meaning the property is worth less than the mortgage. Dairy cows wander in a nearby pen, and baling machines grind into the night. Micron, founded in Boise in 1978 with early investors including the late potato mogul J.R. Simplot, cut local production and 1,500 jobs last year as chip prices fell. The company has more than 5,000 full-time workers in the area, said Daniel Francisco, a Micron spokesman. It employed twice that number as recently as 2001, Ferguson said. Albertsons cut its local payroll following a 2006 buyout by companies including Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based Supervalu Inc. and private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP of New York. The acquisition ended seven decades of Boise ownership for the grocery chain and its plans for as many as 1,000 new hires, the state economist said. Idaho lost 6.9% of its jobs from 2008 through 2009, compared with the 4.9% US average, and its timber industry payrolls fell 38%, according to IHS Global. Government workers and services haven't been spared. The state budget, which peaked at $3 billion in 2008, dropped by a fifth to $2.38 billion in the fiscal 2011 year that began July 1. More than 200 positions were cut and furloughs imposed in agencies including health and welfare, tax collection and the attorney general's office, Ferguson said. Holmes said her company, TitleOne Corp., is down to 80 employees from a high of 175 in 2007. Her lender, Bank of America Corp. of Charlotte, North Carolina, took the first step toward foreclosure in July. Holmes, a divorced mother of two, put her house on the market in June and has applied for a federal program that offers incentives to loan servicers, investors and homeowners to complete short sales, in which the bank accepts less than what it is owed on the mortgage. She's asking $225,000 and hasn't had an offer. A third of real estate listings in her area are distressed properties, with seven months of inventory on the market in Boise at her price. Picture Three - The US is Bankrupt Let's get real. The US is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills. What it can and must do is radically simplify its tax, health-care, retirement and financial systems, each of which is a complete mess. But this is the good news. It means they can each be redesigned to achieve their legitimate purposes at much lower cost and, in the process, revitalize the economy. Last month, the International Monetary Fund released its annual review of US economic policy. Its summary contained these bland words about US fiscal policy: "Directors welcomed the authorities' commitment to fiscal stabilization, but noted that a larger than budgeted adjustment would be required to stabilize debt-to-GDP." But delve deeper, and you will find that the IMF has effectively pronounced the US bankrupt. Section 6 of the July 2010 Selected Issues Paper says: "The US fiscal gap associated with Friday's federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates." It adds that "closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14% of US GDP." The fiscal gap is the value Friday (the present value) of the difference between projected spending (including servicing official debt) and projected revenue in all future years. To put 14% of gross domestic product in perspective, current federal revenue totals 14.9% of GDP. So the IMF is saying that closing the US fiscal gap, from the revenue side, requires, roughly speaking, an immediate and permanent doubling of personal-income, corporate and federal taxes as well as the payroll levy set down in the Federal Insurance Contribution Act. Such a tax hike would leave the US running a surplus equal to 5% of GDP this year, rather than a 9% deficit. So the IMF is really saying the US needs to run a huge surplus now and for many years to come to pay for the spending that is scheduled. It's also saying the longer the country waits to make tough fiscal adjustments, the more painful they will be. Is the IMF bonkers? No. It has done its homework. So has the Congressional Budget Office whose Long-Term Budget Outlook, released in June, shows an even larger problem. Based on the CBO's data, there is a fiscal gap of $202 trillion, which is more than 15 times the official debt. This gargantuan discrepancy between the "official" debt and the actual net indebtedness isn't surprising. It reflects what economists call the labeling problem. Congress has been very careful over the years to label most of its liabilities "unofficial" to keep them off the books and far in the future. For example, Social Security FICA contributions are called taxes and future Social Security benefits are called transfer payments. The government could equally well have labeled contributions "loans" and called future benefits "repayment of these loans less an old age tax," with the old age tax making up for any difference between the benefits promised and principal plus interest on the contributions. The fiscal gap isn't affected by fiscal labeling. It's the only theoretically correct measure of the long-run fiscal condition because it considers all spending, no matter how labeled, and incorporates long-term and short-term policy. How can the fiscal gap be so enormous? Simple. The US has 78 million baby boomers who, when fully retired, will collect benefits from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid that, on average, exceed per-capita GDP. The annual costs of these entitlements will total about $4 trillion in Friday's Dollars. Yes, the US economy will be bigger in 20 years, but not big enough to handle this size load year after year. This is what happens when you run a massive Ponzi scheme for six decades straight, taking ever larger resources from the young and giving them to the old while promising the young their eventual turn at passing the generational buck. Herb Stein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under US President Richard Nixon, coined an oft-repeated phrase: "Something that can't go on, will stop." True enough. Uncle Sam's Ponzi scheme will stop. But it will stop too late. And it will stop in a very nasty manner. The first possibility is massive benefit cuts visited on the baby boomers in retirement. The second is astronomical tax increases that leave the young with little incentive to work and save. And the third is the government simply printing vast quantities of money to cover its bills. Most likely we will see a combination of all three responses with dramatic increases in poverty, tax, interest rates and consumer prices. This is an awful, downhill road to follow, but it's the one the US is on. And here's the scary reality; bond traders will kick the US down our road once they wake up and realize the US is in worse fiscal shape than Greece. Some doctrinaire Keynesian economists would say any stimulus over the next few years won't affect the US's ability to deal with deficits in the long run. This is wrong as a simple matter of maths. The fiscal gap is the government's credit-card bill and each year's 14% of GDP is the interest on that bill. If it doesn't pay this year's interest, it will be added to the balance. Demand-siders say forgoing this year's 14% fiscal tightening, and spending even more, will pay for itself, in present value, by expanding the economy and tax revenue. My reaction? Get real, the US is broke! Ladies and Gentlemen, reading the above, you can be forgiven if you think I'm on another 'rant' about the US and its problems. But seriously, it's not just the US. The Greek economy contracted sharply in the second quarter as government austerity measures bit deeper into incomes, according to government data released Thursday. Unemployment in Greece has now touched a record 12%. The consensus is that the Greek recession is getting far worse. You probably think that I am just picking on the countries with obvious problems; well no. Australia's unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in July as the number of people entering the work force outpaced growth in new jobs. A total of 631,800 people were unemployed in July, up from 607,200 the previous month, which lifted the unemployment rate from June's 5.1%. But here is the very worrying fact. The unemployment rate of young people around the world has reached its highest levels ever and is expected to increase, according to a new International Labour Office (ILO) report. Of the world's 620 million youths, ages 15 to 24, 80.7 million were jobless in 2009. The number is expected to reach 81.2 million by year-end 2010. Due to the global economic crisis, the youth unemployment rate increased to 13% in 2009 from 11.9% in 2007. This alone strengthens my opinion (and don't forget Ladies and Gentlemen, this is just my opinion) that the global economic and financial crisis is not over and never will be until rising unemployment is brought under control. And in my eyes, we are far, far away from that point at the moment. On to the numbers on the boards for the week that was and the 'pattern' I mentioned last week continued; 2 days down, 3 days up .... but this time markets certainly looked less certain as to why/how they were making any gains at all!
On to the numbers for the week: |
| US Markets
How the US did this week ..... | |
US stocks edged lower on Friday after tepid consumer and retail sales data failed to revive investor confidence. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% to 1,079.26, falling 3.8% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 0.2% to close at 10,354.92, lower by 3.3% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed 0.8% lower at 2,173.48, down 5% over the five days. Fears about the pace of the economic recovery dominated markets this week after the Federal Reserve downgraded its outlook for the economy. Weak Chinese economic data weighed on the industrials, materials and energy sectors. Data showed on Friday that US retail sales rose less than expected in July, up 0.4% compared with a forecast increase of 0.5%. Excluding cars and petrol, purchases fell 0.1%, showing that underlying consumer confidence remained shaky. Separate data showed that the consumer price index rose 0.3% and by 0.1% excluding food and energy. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose slightly more than expected in August but investors were un-moved by the data. The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector declined 1.1%, with the S&P 500 retailers down 1.4%. JC Penney, the department store chain, warned of an "uncertain" outlook for consumer spending and lowered its profit forecast for the year. It projected a profit of $1.50 a share compared with a previous forecast of about $1.64. In the last quarter, revenue met analyst expectations and net income rose to $14m compared with a loss of $1m for the same period last year. Its shares fell 4.7% to $19.82. Nordstrom dropped 7.2% to $31.05 after it maintained its full-year forecast and said its expenses rose. The chain reported earnings in line with analyst expectations. In other earnings news, Nvidia rose 4.8% to $9.39 in spite of a widening in its quarterly loss. The chipmaker said profit margins would rise in the third quarter because of a new range of products. It was reported that the company was working on a microprocessor for tablet devices that would compete with Intel products. Intel fell 1.5% to $19.15. DeVry, the operator of for-profit further education colleges, enrolled more students, revenue rose and earnings for the fourth quarter almost doubled to a better-than-expected 99 cents per share. But it fell 5.7% to $42.71 ahead of a Department of Education report on its proposed requirements for student loan eligibility. In deal news, Blackstone Group agreed to acquire the Texas power producer Dynegy for $4.50 a share, a 62% premium on Thursday's closing price. After Blackstone assumes Dynegy's debt, the acquisition's value will total about $4.7bn. Blackstone will sell four natural gas-fired assets, owned by Dynegy, to NRG Energy for about $1.36bn in cash. Dynegy surged 59% to $4.42, Blackstone fell 3.5% to $10.63 and NRG Energy was down 2% to $21.96. Vaccine biotechnology company Emergent Bio-Solutions said it had agreed to buy Trubion Pharmaceuticals for up to $135.5m in cash and shares as it tried to expand its product pipeline into oncology and autoimmune diseases. Emergent Biosolutions fell 5.8% to $17.43 while Trubion Pharmaceuticals soared 50% to $4.50. |
| European Markets
What has been happening in Europe this week ..... | |
European stocks gained, paring this week's decline for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, after a private report in the US showed consumer confidence rose more than economists estimated. Aviva surged 5.5% as two people with knowledge of the situation said RSA Insurance Group made a 5 billion- Pound ($7.8 billion) bid for Aviva's general insurance business in the UK, Canada and Ireland. Schibsted ASA, Norway's largest media company, jumped 12% after reporting second-quarter profit that topped analysts' estimates. The Stoxx 600 climbed 0.3% to 255.56 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, paring this week's decline to 1.2%. The measure swung between gains and losses at least eight times Friday as a report showed faster-than-forecast expansion in the 16-nation Euro area, while investors speculated that the region's economy may still stall later this year, dragged down by the indebted nations on Europe's periphery. The Stoxx 600 remains 6.1% below this year's high reached April 15 amid concern that austerity measures by European governments to curb deficits will harm the economy. Almost $2 trillion has been wiped off the value of global equities this week as the Federal Reserve on Aug. 10 said the pace of recovery will probably be "more modest" than forecast. National benchmark indexes rose in 8 of the 18 western European markets Friday. The UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.2%. France's CAC 40 dropped 0.3% and Germany's DAX retreated 0.4%. The Stoxx 600 has climbed 10% from this year's low on May 25 as corporate earnings helped alleviate concern about the economy. About 55% of the 272 companies in the Stoxx 600 to have posted results since July 12 have topped net income estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 64% of the 436 companies on the S&P 500 that reported during the same period, the data show. Schibsted surged 12% to 144.5 kroner, the biggest gain since November. The company reported second-quarter net income of 710 million kroner ($114 million), topping the 586 million-krone average of four analysts' estimates surveyed by Bloomberg. Schindler Holding AG climbed 6.1% to 96.75 Swiss francs, as it announced a plan to merge one of its businesses with a unit of Droege International Group AG. ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany's largest steelmaker, climbed 1.5% to 23.15 Euros after raising its forecast for 2010 profit. GERMANY German stocks retreated as concern that European governments will struggle to repay their debt overshadowed an increase in US consumer confidence and the fastest rate of economic growth in Germany since reunification. The benchmark DAX Index fell 0.4% to 6,110.41. The gauge posted a weekly loss of 2.4%, its biggest drop in six weeks, after the Federal Reserve said the pace of recovery in the US economy will probably be "more modest" than forecast. The HDAX Index slipped 0.3% Friday. Stocks fell even after German gross domestic product surged 2.2% from the first quarter. The country has benefited from a recovery in global demand after last year's recession just as the Euro's drop against the Dollar in 2010 has made its exports more competitive outside the region. At the same time, European governments are cutting spending to rein in ballooning budget deficits, threatening to slow growth in coming months. BASF, the world's biggest chemicals company, slid 1.7% to 43.80 Euros. Germany's policy of shutting down nuclear plants, winding down coal-powered energy production and subsidizing renewable energy will result in a long-term de- industrialization of the country, Boersen-Zeitung reported, citing BASF Chief Executive Officer Juergen Hambrecht. Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, dropped 1.2% to 77.02 Euros. The company said it doesn't expect auto markets to reach pre-crisis levels this year after its sales growth last month slowed to 2.9%. E.ON and RWE, Germany's largest utilities, fell 1.6% to 22.70 Euros and 0.8% to 53.22 Euros. The two stocks together account for more than 12% of the benchmark DAX Index by weighting, according to Bloomberg data. ThyssenKrupp increased 1.5% to 23.15 Euros. The country's biggest steelmaker raised its earnings outlook for the current fiscal year after reporting quarterly profit that beat analysts' estimates. K+S advanced for the first time this week, adding 2.5% to 42.33 Euros after Europe's largest potash producer was upgraded to "neutral" from "underperform" by analysts at Exane BNP Paribas. Carl Zeiss Meditec rose 1.2% to 11.80 Euros as the maker of medical lasers to correct vision defects was raised to "overweight" from "neutral" at HSBC Holdings. The German economy may grow 2.5% this year, an economist at Halle-based think tank, IWH, reportedly said Tuesday. The think tank previously forecast 2% growth for 2010. Talking to German newspaper Berliner Zeitung, IWH's economic expert Udo Ludwig said if emerging economies fail to maintain their growth momentum, it will reflect on German growth. In July, German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said the biggest Eurozone economy is expected to grow 2% this year. The Bundesbank forecasts 1.9% growth. German insolvency courts reported 2,692 business insolvencies in May, which represents a 1.1% increase from a year ago, figures released by the Federal Statistical Office showed on Wednesday. Consumer insolvencies totaled 8,552 in the same month, up 14.1% from May 2009. Total insolvenices were up 7.7% to 13,477. From January to May, a total of 13,716 businesses went insolvent, represing a 2.7% increase from the same period a year ago. Consumer insolvencies increased 11.8% in the same period, while total insolvencies were up 7.6%. FRANCE France's CAC 40 Index fell 10.16, or 0.3%, to 3,610.91 at the 5:30 p.m. close in Paris. The SBF 120 Index lost 0.2%. Adecco added 0.5% to 38.64 Euros, gaining for the first day in four. BofA Merrill Lynch removed the world's largest supplier of temporary workers from its "most preferred" stocks in the European business services industry and added it to the "least preferred," saying that the "persistence of poor economic data should lead to underperformance." Fromageries Bel added 1.6% to 142.40 Euros, the highest since July 14. The cheese maker agreed to pay suppliers more for milk, raising the price by nearly 10% to 330 Euros per 1,000 liters. Store Electronic declined 2.6% to 9.60 Euros, dropping for a third day. The maker of public address systems said sales fell to 20.9 million Euros in the first half from 30.1 million Euros a year earlier. Veolia Environnement fell 2% to 20.05, dropping for a seventh day. The world's biggest water company tracked losses in utilities stocks across Europe. A gauge of the industry showed a fall of 0.4%. France's current account balance, which is the broadest measure of the country's trade balance, recorded a smaller deficit in June than in May, official figures showed on Wednesday. The Bank of France said a current account deficit of Eur 2.7 billion was recorded in June. This compares to a Eur 4 billion deficit in the previous month. The goods account deficit narrowed to Eur 4.2 billion in June from Eur 5.5 billion in the preceding month. The services account surplus was unchanged at Eur 1.3 billion. Meanwhile, the income account surplus rose to Eur 2.4 billion from Eur 2.3 billion in the prior month. The transfers account deficit was unchanged at Eur 2.1 billion. Meanwhile, the financial account recorded a deficit of Eur 26 billion in June, up from Eur 4.9 billion in the preceding month. French industrial production dropped more than expected in June as manufacturing output fell led by a sharp decline in vehicle production. Industrial output fell 1.7% month-on-month in June following a revised 1.9% rise in May, data released by statistical office Insee showed Tuesday. The decline exceeded economists' expectations for a 0.2% drop. The annual growth rate of industrial production eased to 5.7% from previous month's 8.5%. Manufacturing output dropped 1.3% on a monthly basis after a revised increase of 0.6% in May. It fell for the first time this year. Manufacture of food products and beverages declined 0.8% in June after a 0.8% rise in May. Vehicle output slipped 7.4%, reversing the 4.8% growth in the previous month. On an annual basis, total manufacturing output rose at a slower pace of 5% compared with the 7.8% increase recorded in May. In the second quarter, total industrial production rose 0.8% sequentially, while manufacturing production increased 1.3%. Construction output rose 0.1% month-on-month in June after a 0.5% rise in May. On an annual basis, output fell 2.5%, extending the fall that started in February 2008. In the second quarter, construction output was down 0.2%. Although activity weakened in the second quarter, the industrial sector is likely to give some support to economic growth. The Bank of France forecast that the French economy probably expanded 0.4% during April to June. Insee is due to release preliminary GDP figures for the second quarter on August 13. Survey results released by the Bank of France showed Thursday that industrial sentiment stabilized for the second month in July. In the short-term, the central bank expects slight growth in production levels. BELGIUM The Bel 20 in Brussels ended the week at 2,485.70, a Friday dip of 0.81%. Belgian families are by far the richest in the Eurozone, according to a new report from ING Bank, citing statistics from Eurostat. Measured in late March, the net worth of Belgians reached 916 billion Euros, or 210% of GDP, by far the highest rate in the 16-country Eurozone. Italy and Germany are in second and third place. At the end of June 2007, when stock indexes were higher, this same figure for Belgium was estimated at 882 billion Euros. The low, at 795 billion Euros, was reached at the end of 2008. Belgian families' accumulation of so much wealth is not attributable to investment acumen, but rather to Belgians' enthusiasm for savings; the typical Belgian family has 156,000 Euros in savings and investments. According to Philippe Ledent and Oscar Bernal, the paper's authors, Ricardian economic principles are at work, and that "households save when the state borrows...in anticipation of higher future taxes needed to repay this debt." The rate of return on both savings accounts and Belgian government bonds are now down to levels last seen during the Second World War. Investors' return on a 10-year government bond is now around 3%, and most savings accounts currently yield less than 2%, reported both La Libre Belgique and La Dernière HEure. The world's biggest brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev reported increased 2010 second quarter earnings on Thursday -- citing better weather and the impact of the World Cup. The brewer of flagship brands including Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's reported net profits of 1.149 billion Dollars (778 million Euros), beating expectations of a seven-percent rise compared to the same period in 2009. Created in November 2008 when Belgian-Brazilian brewer InBev bought US giant Anheuser-Busch for 52 billion Dollars, revenue nevertheless slipped to 9.174 billion Dollars. The beer market has shrunk in traditional territories including north America and western Europe, but Russia and other "high potential key georgraphies" mean it said the outlook was for continued growth in the coming two quarters. The company said in January it was to cut 10% of its 8,000-strong workforce across Europe. THE NETHERLANDS In Amsterdam the AEX headed into the weekend on 323.92, dropping 0.06% in the process. The volume of exports from the Netherlands in June was 14% higher than a year earlier, the Central Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Import volume, meanwhile, increased by 20%. In value terms, exports of goods amounted to Eur 32.3 billion, while import value came in at Eur 29.6 billion. A trade surplus of Eur 2.7 billion was recorded. Export and import prices also surged in June. Export prices were 8.1% higher than a year earlier, while import prices were 7.6% higher. Amsterdam's airport Schiphol has become the sole owner of Terminal 4 at New York's JFK airport. This is the first time that a foreign company has taken control of an airport terminal in the United States. Schiphol already owned 40% of the terminal's shares. Now, for a further 13 million Dollars, it has purchased the remaining 60%. Schiphol will be able to charge fees to all airline companies wishing to make use of the terminal. In the coming years, the terminal is to be expanded from 16 to 25 gates. The biggest customer will be Delta Air Lines, which is a partner of the Air France-KLM company. Airline companies try to transport as many passengers from a single airport on one continent to a single airport on another continent. This enables them to carry travellers via their own network, or that of a partner, to the final destination. This is known as the 'hub system'. Jos Nijhuis, Schiphol's CEO, says the purchase will, "Considerably strengthen the position of Amsterdam as European hub for the US. That will lead to extra [flight] traffic to Amsterdam." Camiel Eurlings, the Dutch caretaker transport minister, commented that, "This is not only financially lucrative, but also strategically important. There are only a few European airports left with global importance. The rest are fading away to the regional level, handling only European flights." Dutch bank and insurance company ING Groep NV posted a sharp rise in second-quarter earnings from the year-ago period, which was dragged down by losses on stocks, bonds and real estate investments. Net profit rose to 1.09 billion Euros ($1.44 billion) from 79 million Euros. A strong performance by its banking arm outweighed a loss in insurance, which was hurt by the sharp decline in equity markets in the quarter. ING plans to sell its insurance arm as part of a deal with European regulators after it received state aid during the financial crisis. Some analysts believe the division's volatile earnings could lower its price tag. A rumour that cash machines in the Netherlands were dispensing free money triggered an avalanche of rumours on Twitter on Wednesday evening. A spokeswoman for ING Bank, however, denied that a technical fault in the country's electronic paying system caused the cash machines to hand out banknotes without charging the client's account. The error put ING's own electronic tills out of action for four hours, and its clients were advised to carry out their money withdrawals at other banks' cash dispensers. This led to rumours that people at a Rabobank machine in The Hague were able to withdraw hundreds of Euros from their ING accounts without the bank being aware of it. A long cue of people formed at the The Hague machine, and the rumour did the rounds on Twitter; many participants, however, pointed out that ING Bank would be able to trace anyone who had benefited from any unregistered cash withdrawals and would reclaim the money later. SWITZERLAND Zurich's SMI drew a line under the trading week at 6,294.34, a gain of 0.24% on the day. Switzerland now expects to book a 600 million franc budget surplus this year rather than the previously planned 2 billion deficit, thanks to a surprisingly strong economic recovery, the Federal Finance Ministry said on Wednesday. The ministry attributed the improved performance to higher than-expected tax revenues in the first half of the year. The Swiss economy has emerged less bruised from the economic crisis than many other European countries and the Swiss central bank expects healthy growth of about 2% for this year. Switzerland only launched relatively small economic stimulus programmes in the crisis and the federal government ran up a surplus even in the recession year 2009, partly thanks to a profit from its bailout of the country's largest bank UBS Swiss consumers remained optimistic in the third quarter after regaining confidence in the second quarter, survey results released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs showed Tuesday. According to the latest survey, the consumer confidence index logged 16 points in July following 14 points in April. It was the highest reading since April 2007. But, the reading was less than the expected figure of 18 points. The July survey found that consumers expect to see an improvement in their own potential to put money aside in the coming months. The corresponding indicator rose to 27 points from 15 recorded in the previous survey period. However, households' assessment of the expected economic situation was slightly less optimistic with the indicator dropping to 33 points from 44 in April. Expectations regarding the trend in unemployment decreased and respondents' personal financial situation rose slightly. SECO said the remaining sub-indices of the survey, which are not used to calculate the overall index, all developed relatively positively.The assessment of the past economic situation turned optimistic, while pessimism regarding job security lessened. A gauge for households' current potential to put money aside in the form of savings increased. There were slight improvements in consumers' assessments of the past personal financial situation and of the right time to make major purchases. Further, the survey revealed that households revised down their assessment of the price development in the past twelve months from the April survey. They also lowered their expectations for the coming twelve months regarding inflation. SECO said both indexes have now been below their long-term average values for seven quarters. Official data showed earlier this month that consumer price inflation eased to 0.4% in July from 0.5% in June. Although the consumer confidence index showed slight improvement, investor sentiment plunged in July. A monthly survey jointly conducted by the Credit Suisse and ZEW revealed in July that economic sentiment indicator dropped 15.3 points to 2.2. The Swiss National Bank expects real GDP growth of about 2% this year. The economy had expanded 0.4% sequentially in the first quarter following 0.9% growth in the fourth quarter of 2009. AUSTRIA The ATX in Vienna rounded out the Friday session and the week at 2,416.74, up 0.64%. Austrians spent 10.3% more on real estate in "crisis year" 2009 than in 2008, according to a research. Real estate company Re/Max said Friday (Weds) building sites and owner-occupied flats changed their owners for 8.8 billion Euros last year, up by 10.3% year on year. The firm explained an overall 45,366 objects were sold in 2009. Most money was traditionally spent in the capital Vienna which grabbed a 26.8% stake of overall sums, while eastern Burgenland came last among Austria's nine provinces (1.4%). Re/Max also found that owner-occupied apartments cost an average 127,210 Euros. Flats in Vienna were purchased for 137,041 Euros on average, while apartments in the western province of Vorarlberg were most expensive (169,594 Euros). Thomas Malloth of the Federal Economic Chamber's (WKO) real estate department said recently the value of owner-occupied flats rose by 3.5% from 2008 to 2009 as an increasing number of people see condominiums as a safe haven for their money in economically difficult times. Champagne and wine maker Schlumberger has reported sparking figures for the first quarter of its 2010/2011 business year. The Viennese firm said Tuesday that turnover rose by 4.3% to 50.6 million Euros year on year, while its earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) doubled from 175,000 Euros to 360,000 Euros. Schlumberger claimed it's success was due to having made the right decisions in taking over rival Hochriegl and selling struggling subsidiary Appelt to food firm Maresi. It added the number of staff declined from 223 to 210 year on year. Schlumberger runs branches in Austria and subsidiaries in Germany and in the Netherlands. Businessman Julius Meinl V. and fellow decision-makers of the family's business empire have been confronted with a multi-billion claim for damages. Real estate company Atrium, formerly Meinl European Land, launched the 2.1-billion-Euro bid at London's High Court of Justice Wednesday. It is the highest sum ever demanded in court from an Austrian firm. MEL was founded by Meinl Bank and registered at the Vienna Stock Exchange in 2008. Bettina Knötzl, a lawyer for Atrium, explained Friday the company demanded compensation for "losses and damages" suffered in controversial business operations. Knötzl branded Julius Meinl V. - who has a British and an Austrian passport - as the "mastermind of the malversations". She claimed several e-mails would confirm her claims. Thomas Huemer, a spokesman for Meinl Bank, labelled the legal action as "absurd and populist" Friday, adding it "has a blackmail character". SWEDEN The OMX in Stockholm completed a hectic trading week on 1,036.45, up 0.51% for the session. Many Swedes with short-term fixed-rate mortgages will face higher bills from now on, after state-owned mortgage lender SBAB and Nordic bank Nordea both raised rates. But mortgages fixed for three years or more will become cheaper, SBAB said. After the changes, SBAB's three-month fixed rate mortgages will attract a standard interest rate of 2.25%, a rise of 0.07 points. Two-year fixed-rate deals are unchanged at 2.9%. Interest rates on five-year fixed-rate mortgages at SBAB are being reduced by 0.07 points to 3.95%. Ten-year fixed-rate deals are being reduced by 0.16 points to 4.68%. The changes by SBAB also affect customers of its partners - ICA Banken, Ikano Bank, Nordnet Bank, Salus Ansvar and Bank 2. Nordea announced on Wednesday that it would also raise rates on short term fixed rates, effective from Thursday. Their 3-month rate would rise by 0.03 percentage points, while their one-year fixed rate would rise by 0.05 percentage points. The new three-month rate will therefore be 2.18, while the new one-year rate will be 2.30, the bank said in a statement. Nordea's 5-year fixed rate mortgage will fall by 0.1 percentage points to 3.89%. The one-year fixed-rate will fall by 0.1 points to 4.59%. Rates on mortgages fixed for between two and four years are unchanged. Inflation expectations among the Swedish money market players have increased modestly, while they forecast faster tightening of the key interest rate in the coming two years, a survey commissioned by the Swedish central bank showed Wednesday. The survey, undertaken by TNS SIFO Prospera, showed that the money market players expects an inflation rate of 1.7% in the next 12 months compared to 1.6% forecast in the previous survey. Meanwhile, money market expects the central bank to increase the repo rate at a faster pace over the coming twelve months as well as in next two years. Repo rate for the next 12 months is seen at 1.6%, slightly faster than the 1.4% previously forecast. Furthermore, repo rate will be hiked to 2.5% in the next two years, faster than the 2.4% projected earlier. This would be tightened further to 3.3% five years out. Inflation over the next two years is seen at 1.2%, which is the same rate projected in the previous survey. The survey projects inflation to be 2.1% over next five years, slightly slower than the 2.2% seen in the previous survey. On July 1, Riksbank had hiked the repo rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% and in June, Swedish inflation eased to 0.9% from 1.2% in May. The economy is projected to grow 3% over the 12 months and slow thereafter to 2.8% in the next two year's time. Compared to previous survey, panelists has revised up their expectations for the economic growth. Mats Jansson, President and CEO of troubled Scandinavian airline SAS, has announced that he plans to leave his position in the autumn. "Next year, I turn 60 and that is also when my contract expires. I believe that I have done my share for SAS," Jansson wrote in a company press release on Tuesday. The board has begun the search for a suitable replacement for Jansson, who has held the position since January 2007. SAS has faced significant financial challenges for a number of years in the face of competition from low cost carriers such as Norwegian and Ryanair as well as the impact of the global economic slowdown and Icelandic ash cloud. Massive savings and austerity programmes have been carried out and new billions have been attained from owner rights issues on a number of occasions. "My decision to leave the company was not easy. It has been four exciting and demanding years to run a company in such a dynamic sector, where no two days are the same. I have received strong support from the Board, the management team and, in particular, from all the SAS employees, who do a fantastic job and who have truly given their all to SAS during this highly critical and financially difficult situation," said Mats Jansson. DENMARK Copenhagen's OMX closed out the Friday trading session on 412.99, a Friday gain of 0.07%. The financial crisis had cost Danish banks 105 billion kroner up until the end of 2009, the equivalent of what it costs to build six Storebælts Bridges, writes Berlingske Tidende. The report also revealed that were it not for the state aid packages, the banks would have lost up to three times as much. The figures are not as high as initially expected, and they are still in balance with the crisis of the early 1990s and much lower than that of the 1920s, with which it was heavily compared to. In the banking crisis of the early 1990s, Danish banks lost an average of 1.5% of the complete balance per year from 1990 to 1993. In 2008 and 2009, they lost 0.78% and 1.57% respectively. During the 1920s, this figure was close to 6%. However, were it not for the state aid packages, the actual loss is thought to have been significantly higher, most probably not far from that during the crisis of the 1920s. The crisis is not completely over for the banks, though, as they are expected to continue to lose money over the next few years, and the Danish population will continue to feel some of the effects. The market leader Danske Bank has suffered the most in the crisis, so far losing 42 billion kroner. The bank, which controls approximately a third of the banking sector in Denmark, will release its first half 2010 figures tomorrow. Second on the list was Roskilde Bank, which went bankrupt, and in third place was pan-Nordic bank Nordea. A Tax Ministry investigation into company's tax payments for the period 2006-2008, shows that half closed out at least one year owing no taxes. Tax Minister Troels Lund Poulsen described the results as a direct indication that tax evasion was taking place. The investigation shows that during the given time period - a period of economic growth - only half of the firms paid taxes and, for 28% of companies, the report shows that they paid no taxes during the entire three-year period. Poulsen was surprised by the figures, and some of the country's other political parties are now stating that they want an explanation from the minister in the case. The Confederation of Danish Industry, however, said it was normal that companies had periods when they made major investments which could be deducted from their taxes. The report shows that companies' tax payment for the years 2006-2008 fell by 17.3 billion kroner, from 50.5 billion kroner to 33.2 billion kroner. Poulsen will now ask the Tax Ministry to look into the figures and the companies more closely. Danish consumer price inflation increased in July, the Statistics Denmark said on Tuesday. The consumer price index rose 2.3% year-on-year in July, faster than a 1.7% growth in the previous month. Economists were looking for an increase of 1.9%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose 0.4% annually in July, while clothing and footwear prices fell 1.4%.Prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose 9%, and housing prices rose 4%. Transportation charges grew 2.5%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices remained unchanged in July, compared to a 0.3% fall expected by economists'. Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, calculated according to the EU methodology, rose 2.1% year-on-year in July compared to a 1.7% rise in the previous month. The HICP fell 0.1% compared to the preceding month. Industrial production in Denmark rose 4.6% year-on-year in June, Statistics Denmark said Tuesday. Month-on-month, industrial output grew a seasonally adjusted 1.2%. In the second quarter, production grew 2.7% on a quarterly basis. Manufacture of non-durables goods increased 0.8% monthly in June and output of durables grew 2.6%. Similarly, production in intermediate industry increased 6.9%. Meanwhile, total industrial turnover fell 1.5% monthly in June. Turnover in durables goods industry and capital goods declined. Industrial new orders increased 23% in June from the previous month. New export orders climbed 30.5%, while there was a 1.8% fall in orders received from the domestic market. FINLAND In Helsinki the OMX finished the week at 6,679.94, up 0.83% on the day. Nokia was the bestselling smartphone during the first half of the year with global sales reaching 111,473 units representing 34% of the total 325,556 handsets sold during the six-month period, according to market researcher Gartner Inc. The Nokia operating system Symbian was also the most popular smartphone platform worldwide as the Finnish mobile phone maker sold 25,386 units equipped with the software from January to June, Gartner said. Gartner's research find South Korean brand Samsung as the second bestselling handset with 65,328 units sold in the same period for a 20% market share. At third spot is LG with 29,366 units sold representing 9% of the smartphone market. Research in Motion, maker of the BlackBerry, ranks fourth followed by Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Apple, HTC, ZTE and G'Five. The second most popular platform after Symbian is RIM. A total 11,228 units sold in the first half ran on the program. At third spot is Google Inc.'s Android with 10,606 units sold running on the software. Apple Inc.'s iOS ranked fourth followed by Microsoft Windows Mobile and Linux. Finnish building costs increased in July from the previous year, a report by the Statistics Finland showed on Thursday. The building cost index increased 1.5% year-on-year in July, faster than a 1.1% growth in the previous month. Labour costs in construction rose by 0.3% annually and prices of materials were up 3%. Other input costs were down 1.1%. By type of building, building costs increased 3.5% for agricultural production buildings, while those for blocks of flats were up 2.3%. Costs for building detached residential houses, office & commercial buildings, and industrial & warehouse buildings all increased. Month-on-month, building costs grew 0.4% in July, faster than a 0.3% rise in the previous month. Prices of materials increased 0.4% and for other inputs rose 0.6%. Labour costs were up 0.2%. Statistics Finland said on Wednesday that there were a total of 48,600 job vacancies in Finland between April and June, which was 29% more than one year earlier. More than half the total vacancies were in private businesses. The biggest increase in vacancies was recorded in trade and professional, scientific & technical activities. Part-time job vacancies increased 32% annually in the June quarter. Meanwhile, the share of hard-to-fill vacancies increased by 8 percentage points from a year ago to 41%. Finland's industrial production growth continued to improve in June, official data showed Tuesday. Industrial production increased a working day adjusted 14.5% year-on-year in June, faster than a revised 13.2% growth in May, Statistics Finland reported. The pace of growth improved for the fourth consecutive month. Industrial production has been rising since the beginning of the year. In June, all main industries recorded growth. The biggest increase was in the forest industry, where output rose nearly 31%. The metal industry that excludes electrical and electronics industry grew by almost 26%. In the chemical industry, working day adjusted output gained 13%, while the food industry reported an output growth of 4.5%. On seasonally adjusted basis, industrial output grew 2.1% from the previous month in June, larger than May's figure of 1.9%. It was the fourth monthly increase in a row. Apart from a downswing in February, seasonally adjusted output has been rising since October 2009, the agency said. During the January-June period, industrial output rose 7.8% from last year. Capacity utilization rate in Finnish manufacturing rose to 78% in June, up 13.8 percentage points from last year. A latest survey by the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK had shown that Finnish manufacturing companies' business situation remained stable in July. The survey found that a steady production growth is expected for the next few months. Order books have improved, but slightly smaller than average. Meanwhile, stocks of final goods increased. Producer prices increased for the fifth consecutive month in June. NORWAY Oslo's OBX pulled the curtains on the trading session Friday at 326.34, down 0.08%. Norwegian annual inflation was 1.9% in July, unchanged from June, official data showed Tuesday. At the same time, producer price inflation quickened notably in July, on the back of higher oil and non-ferrous metal prices. In July, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in seven months, data from Statistics Norway showed. However, economists were expecting inflation to accelerate to 2.1%. Annual core inflation rate in July was 1.3%, matching June's figure, but slightly smaller than the expected rate of 1.4%. Prices of electricity, including grid tariff, surged 13.4% year-on-year during the month, but was countered by falling prices in food, clothing and audio-visual equipment. The price index of food and non-alcoholic beverages dropped 0.3% and that of clothing and footwear fell 4.5%. Increases in prices were also registered for fuels and lubricants as well as restaurant services. The consumer price index, or CPI, dipped 0.5% on a monthly basis in July, mainly due to a fall in prices of clothing and footwear together with airline fares. Economists had expected only a 0.3% drop for July. In June, the index fell 0.1%. Prices of recreational and cultural services checked the monthly decline in the consumer price index, with the prices for the whole product group rising 2.1%. This is mostly due to expanded tax liability on culture and sports area with the introduction of 8% VAT from July 1, Statistics Norway said. Both the CPI adjusted for tax changes and the the core CPI decreased 0.6% from June to July. Data showed that EU harmonized annual inflation in Norway remained unchanged at 1.8% in July. From June, the harmonized index of consumer prices dropped 0.6%. Norges Bank had kept the key policy rate unchanged at 2% on June 23, as recovery of the economy continued at a moderate pace and inflation moved broadly in line with projections. Interest rate is likely to be kept unchanged for a period and further increase will occur later than previously envisaged according to Deputy Governor Jan Qvigstad as turmoil in global financial markets is creating uncertainty with regard to economic developments. The central bank is due to publish its interest rate decision tomorrow and is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged. Frank Jullum, an economist at Danske Markets, said in a note Friday that low real interest rates, a relatively expansionary fiscal policy and high oil investments will, in the longer term, challenge the central bank's stance to keep interest rate spreads low. Separately, the statistical office reported that producer price inflation accelerated to 18.1% year-on-year in July from 11.4% in June. Producer prices increased for the ninth month in a row. The strongest price increases during these twelve months were for extraction of oil and natural gas as well as basic metals. Prices involved in oil extraction increased 35.5% and producer prices of natural gas rose 21.6%. Increase in prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals was the main factor behind the upturn, the statistical agency reported. An increase in oil price has caused the sharp rise in prices of refined petroleum products during this period. Output prices in manufacturing, mining and quarrying grew 4.7%, rising from 3.7% gain in June. Electricity, gas and steam prices rose to 16.8% compared to 11.3% in June. Prices of intermediate goods rose 6.2% annually in July, while production costs of consumer goods and energy goods increased by 2.1% and 30%, respectively. Food prices increased by 1.3% from June to July, and this was the strongest month change since November 2008, the statistical office reported. Norway's central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 2% for the second straight rate-setting session. In May, the bank had raised the key policy rate by 0.25 percentage point from 1.75%, the first increase since December 2009. Recent developments in the Norwegian economy have been broadly in line with expectations, Norges Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem said. He added that activity is rising moderately and inflation has slowed and is now below 2%. Thursday, official data showed that Norwegian annual inflation was 1.9% in July, unchanged from June. Gjedrem said considerations relating to both inflation and stable developments in output and employment imply that the interest rate should be kept low. However, the consideration of guarding against the risk of future financial imbalances that may disturb activity and inflation somewhat further ahead suggests that the interest rate should be gradually brought closer to a more normal level, he asserted. SPAIN The IBEX in Madrid drew to a close Friday on 10,275.80, down 0.64%. Home sales in Spain slid 1.3% month-on-month to 37,297 in June, the National Statistics Institute said on Tuesday. On a yearly basis, home sales jumped 7%. Around 90% of all house sales were free housing and the rest were protected housing. The total number of property transfers decreased 3.9% from the previous year to 155,652. Property transfers were 3.6% less than the figure recorded in May. The total number of property transfers per 100,000 inhabitants were the highest in Castilla and Leon and Castilla-La Mancha. Separate data released by property surveyor TINSA showed that Spanish house prices dropped 4.3% from a year ago in July. This follows a 4% decrease in the previous month. House prices in capitals and large cities declined 5% from a year earlier. Prices in the mediterranean coast were down 4.9%. Spanish corporate bankruptcies declined 13.7% in the second quarter from the same period of last year, the statistical office INE said Monday. Quarter-on-quarter, bankruptcy dipped 9.5%. Of the 1,511 debtors processed in the second quarter, 1,243 cases were related to companies and 77.2% of the companies declared bankrupt were Private Limited Companies. Within the total corporate bankruptcies, the share of companies with turnover less than Eur 2 million, was 63.6%. Further, around 32% of companies declared bankrupt carried out their main activity in construction and real estate development and 20% in industry and energy. In the second quarter, the total number of debtors processed reached 1,511, representing a 14.2% decrease from the prior year. By type of proceeding, 1,421 were voluntary, down 14.8% from prior year. PORTUGAL Lisbon's PSI General concluded the week Friday at 2,597.84, a dip of 0.06%. Portugal's construction production decreased in the quarter ended in June period from the previous year, the Statistics Portugal said on Tuesday. The construction production decreased 7.5% on an annual basis in the three months ended in June, compared to a 7.2% fall in the three months ended in May. A year earlier, the construction output slipped 5.7%. The construction output fell 2.1% in the three months ended in June compared to the preceding three months period, following a 0.8% fall in the three months ended in May. Meanwhile, the construction employment dropped 7.1% annually in the three months to June period and wages and salaries grew 5.7%. Portugal's services turnover increased in June from the previous year, data from the Statistics Portugal showed on Tuesday. The turnover in services industries grew 7.2% year-on-year in June, faster than a 6.1% growth in the previous month. Services turnover increased for the fifth consecutive month. A year earlier, services turnover slipped 13.5%. On a monthly basis, services turnover increased 5.5% in June, following a 2.8% rise in May. Services turnover increased for the second straight month. Meanwhile, employment and wages in services declined by 0.4% and 2.0% respectively in June compared to the previous year. In the second quarter, services turnover grew 5.1% annually in the second quarter, faster than a 1.4% growth in the first quarter. Portuguese industrial turnover growth eased in June. The industrial turnover increased 10.5% annually in June, but slower than a 13.3% growth in the previous month. The Portuguese consumer price index went up by 1.8% in July when compared with a year earlier, Statistics Portugal said on Wednesday. This follows a 1.2% increase in the previous month. Excluding energy and unprocessed food, the annual rate increased to 0.6% from 0.2% in June. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual harmonized inflation rate was 1.9% in July, up from 1.1% in June. This compares to a 0.9% average for the Euro area. ITALY Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index fell for a fourth day, dropping 66.25, or 0.3%, to 20,473.15 at the close in Milan. Ansaldo STS, Finmeccanica SpA's railway- technology unit, climbed 5.5% to 9.91 Euros, snapping a six-day loss. A group led by Ansaldo won a contract worth 247 million Euros ($316 million) to provide signaling and telecommunications systems on the Sirte-to-Benghazi line in Libya. Finmeccanica (FNC IM), Italy's biggest defense company, gained 1.5% to 8.37 Euros. Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) led declines by Italian banks. UniCredit Research downgraded European banks to "underweight," saying in a note that "the fundamental strains for banks will increase again in the second half of the year." Intesa dropped 1.3% to 2.36 Euros. UniCredit slid 1.3% to 1.98 Euros. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS IM) lost 0.9% to 97.5 Euro cents. Unione di Banche Italiane SCPA (UBI IM) lost 0.8% to 7.66 Euros. Italcementi, the country's biggest cement maker, fell for a fourth day, losing 1.1% to 5.71 Euros, following declining construction stocks across Europe. Societe Generale SA said in a note that reduced 2010 and 2011 forecasts for US construction and cement consumption by the Portland Cement Association "is not a positive for heavy building material stocks, or -- to a lesser extent -- housing-exposed stocks." Italy's 12-month inflation surged in July to 1.7% compared with 1.3% in June, pushed up by high fuel prices, the national statistics agency said Thursday, releasing definitive data. The level is the highest since December 2008, ISTAT said in a statement. Month-on-month inflation was 0.4%, it added. Economists had forecast 12-month inflation of 1.5% and monthly inflation of 0.1% for July, according to a poll by Dow Jones Newswires. Fuel prices were up 10.6% compared with July 2009. Other price increases were recorded in the transport sector at 4.6%, alcoholic drinks and tobacco up 2.2%, and clothes and shoes up 1.0%. Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks decreased by 0.1%, and telecommunications by 1.3%, ISTAT said. GREECE In Athens, the Athex Composite ended both the session and the week Friday on 1,625.99, down 0.14%. The Greek import price inflation eased for the second consecutive month in June, the statistical office said on Tuesday. The import price index grew 6.2% year-on-year in June, slower than a 7.8% growth in the previous month. However, import prices have been rising since October last year. The statistical agency said the annual rise in the import price index reflects 1.3% increase in the import price index of the Eurozone market and 11.2% rise in non-Eurozone market. By industrial groups, import prices of intermediate goods climbed 3.1% annually and that of capital goods dropped 0.1%. Import prices of durable consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods moved up by 1% and 0.8% respectively. Energy prices surged 23%.
On a monthly basis, import prices rose 0.6% in June, compared to a 0.5% fall in the previous month. Import prices of intermediate goods rose 0.4%, durable consumer goods prices went up by 0.2% and non-durable consumer goods prices by 0.3%. Capital goods prices were flat. Greek industrial output declined in June, but at a slower pace compared to the same month a year ago, official data showed on Monday. The Hellenic Statistical Authority said industrial production recorded a fall of 4.5% year-on-year in June. In June 2009, industrial output had fallen 10.3%. Manufacturing production slid 3% annually in June, while mining & quarrying output was down 2.3%. Electricity production fell by 10.5%. In the first six months of the year, total production contracted by 5.8% compared to the same period a year ago. During this period, the ordinary budget revenue increased to Eur 27.9 billion from Eur 26.8 billion last year, Bank of Greece said. Ordinary budget expenditure, however, decreased to Eur 37.9 billion compared to Eur 42.7 billion in January-July period last year. The primary balance of the state budget also declined to Eur 5.23 billion from Eur 12.3 billion a year earlier. In July, the cash deficit or the net balance of the state budget, including movements in public debt management accounts, was Eur 3.02 billion compared to 1.8 million last year. On the other hand, primary balance of the state budget rose to Eur 240 million in July from Eur 83 million last year. During the month, ordinary budget revenue fell to Eur 4.68 billion from Eur 5.04 billion a year earlier and ordinary expenditure was Eur 7.7 billion, up from Eur 7.14 billion last year. |
| The UK Market
Did it follow the Global trend ..... | BG Group was among London's gainers on Friday amid a renewed focus on its Brazilian oilfields. BG gained 1.2% to £10.25½ after Brazil's oil regulator put a value on deep-water pre-salt assets of "around $8 a barrel". Pre-salt has been an enigma for investors because of a lack of previous transactions and disclosure constraints while Petrobras negotiates to buy fields from Brazil's government, according to JPMorgan Cazenove. Analyst Fred Lucas said that at BG's current price, investors were including no value from the group's fields. The regulator's comments indicate a backstop valuation of at least $5 a barrel, JPMorgan told clients. At that price, BG's 14.5bn barrel pre-salt resource would be worth 395p per share, with each additional Dollar adding another 80p, JPMorgan said. With Petrobras set to agree a price in the next two months, "that ought to provide marginal buyers with some incentive to act before the value of this world-class resource position is more clearly certified", Mr Lucas said. He repeated a £14 target price on BG shares. Defensive stocks once again helped support the FTSE 100, which gained 9.38 points or 0.2% to 5,275.44 in spite of fallers outnumbering risers. GlaxoSmithKline rose 2.4% to £12.24½ and Imperial Tobacco rose 1.4% to £18.50. Over the week the FTSE 100 was down 1.1%, its sharpest weekly decline since the start of July. Vedanta Resources led Friday's blue-chip fallers, down 5.9% to £20.53 as investors reacted with concern to reports it would pay more than $8bn to take a controlling stake in Cairn India, 62% owned by Cairn Energy. A deal between Vedanta and Cairn would be difficult to fund, analysts said, given Vedanta's current market value below $9bn and its ownership structure, with 60% of shares held by the group's founder. Credit Suisse said investors would be unlikely to support a highly dilutive rights issue, debt funding would be a stretch, and Cairn would want cash, not Vedanta stock, . Cairn, whose Indian stake accounts for about two-thirds of its valuation, rose 3.4% to 468¼p. "We would expect Cairn to redeploy liberated cash, but it seems unlikely the group could buy a better core production asset than Rajasthan," said Deutsche Bank. "Accordingly, any forward scenario is likely to leave Cairn a more extreme exploration play." BAE Systems was 1.2% lower at 309p after UBS cut the defence contractor from its "buy" list based on prevailing sentiment. "Whilst we remain optimistic on defence spending, this is irrelevant," it said. "As long as the market has its doubts, BAE shares will continue to look undervalued." Aviva led the blue-chip risers on a return of break-up theories, with RSA Insurance said to have had a £5bn offer rejected for Aviva's general insurance unit. The reports follow talk last month that RSA, Resolution and a European peer were looking at carving up Aviva, though the plan was said not to have progressed. Aviva rose 5.4% to 387½p, RSA fell 1.1% to 127¼p and Resolution was 0.8% lower at 246p. Bargain hunting helped the other financial stocks, with Barclays bouncing 2.4% from a three-week low to 317p. But HSBC lost 1.3% to 653p amid continued talk of an acquisition, with Chicago's Northern Trust once again mentioned among the possible targets. Dana Petroleum was 2.9% higher at £16.77 on expectations that KNOC will take its £18 per share takeover approach directly to shareholders. Rumours of a possible counter-bidder helped support Dana shares. Tui Travel was up 4.5% to 201¼p and Thomas Cook gained 0.2% to 177p after Goldman Sachs raised both stocks to "buy" on valuation grounds. Public spending concerns sent defence technology contractor Qinetiq to a record low, down 5.5% to 109¼p, after the UK government set out a review of defence procurement. SIG, the insulation supplier, fell 3.4% to 94½p even after Canadian peer IKO Group raised its stake from 4.2% to 5.14%. IKO appeared on SIG's shareholder list just over a year ago but has played down hopes it might bid for the group. Lok'n Store rose 2.9% to 90p amid stake-building by Laxey Partners, the activist hedge fund. Laxey said after the close of trade that it had raised its stake in the self-storage group to 29%. Kenmare Resources was up 1.6% to 15½p on hopes of promotion into the FTSE 250 index next month, the titanium miner having transferred its primary listing from Dublin to London. Manganese Bronze fell 18.9% to 35p after Geely, its Chinese partner, confirmed it had abandoned plans to take a controlling stake in the taxi maker. Bid rumours helped tour operator Travelzest edge up 2% to 24p. Caza Oil & Gas jumped by 134% to 25¼p on news of a gas discovery at the group's Bongo field in Texas. Aminex gained 18.9% to 11p on hopes of a pending update from its Shoats Creek prospect in Louisiana. Mediterranean Oil & Gas lost 14.6% to 20½p after the group said it "remains unclear" whether its Ombrina Mare well was affected by offshore drilling restrictions put in place by Italy, and that it was considering legal action. The Bank of England raised its inflation forecast on Wednesday and projected a weaker outlook for economic growth. The central bank also sees a choppy recovery from the recession. After expanding 1.1% in the second quarter of this year, GDP growth is estimated to slow in the third quarter, the BoE said in its quarterly Inflation Report. Some of the increase in the second quarter growth is likely to prove temporary, the bank added. Economic growth is seen averaging around 3% in two years. In May, the central bank had projected more than 3% growth in 2011. BoE Governor Mervyn King said the British economy is facing a difficult rebalancing away from private and public consumption and towards net exports. He sees a choppy recovery. It will take several years before the economy adjusts back to anything that can remotely be called as normal, he added. With ongoing economic weakness, and downside risks around the inflation outlook, the UK probably offers greater scope for a re-expansion of quantitative easing compared to the US, which made a tentative move in that direction last night, according to Rob Carnell, an economist at ING Bank NV. The central bank said inflation will likely remain above the 2% target for longer than judged likely in May, largely reflecting the hike in the rate of Value Added Tax in 2011. This VAT increase will possibly keep inflation above the target throughout 2011. But it will fall below 2% in two-year horizon. However, the prospects for inflation were highly uncertain and the Monetary Policy Committee stood ready to respond in either direction as the balance of risks evolved, the central bank added. The Inflation Report is produced quarterly by Bank staff under the guidance of the members of the MPC. The number of unemployed people in the UK fell by 49,000 to 2.46 million in the three months to June, figures released by the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday. The unemployment rate for the period was 7.8%, down 0.2 points from the three months to March, but unchanged from a year earlier. The number of people in employment aged 16 and over increased by 184,000 on the quarter to reach 29.02 million. This is the largest quarterly increase in the number of people in employment since 1989. Official data also showed that the number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance fell by 3,800 between June and July to 1.46 million. The fall was much weaker than the expected 17,000 decline. The number of male claimants dropped by 7,100 to1.04 million, but the number of female claimants increased by 3,300 to 420,300, the statistical agency said. The number of people claiming for up to six months increased by 7,200 on the month to reach 903,700. This is the first monthly increase in this series since April 2009, the ONS added. The British Labour market may see further downturn as companies try to cope with the government's spending cut measures. The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for the three months to June was 23.4%, down 0.2 percentage point in the quarter. The number of inactive people aged from 16 to 64 fell by 49,000 over the quarter to 9.35 million. Further, the number of vacancies for the three months to July was 481,000, up 9,000 over the quarter. Suggesting that wage growth is unlikely to pose inflationary threats, earnings growth slowed in the three months to June. The earnings annual growth rate for total pay including bonuses was 1.3% for the three months to June, down from 2.7% recorded for the three months to May. Excluding bonuses, annual regular wage growth was 1.6% for the three months to June, down from 1.8% for the three months to May. |
| Asia Pacific Regional Markets
Did they set the tone or follow the lead ..... | JAPAN Japanese stocks advanced for the first time in five days after oil explorers gained along with higher crude prices, while domestically oriented shares rose as they lured investors away from exporters. Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., an oil exploration company, increased 1%. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp., Japan's largest phone company, rose 1.1%, leading gains by telecommunication companies. Honda Motor Corp., which gets more than 80% of its revenue outside Japan, declined 0.3% after US jobless claims increased unexpectedly. Fanuc Ltd., Japan's biggest industrial-robot maker, slid 0.9%. The Nikkei-225 Stock Average rose 0.4% to 9,253.46 at the close in Tokyo after falling as much as 0.5%. The broader Topix climbed 0.4% to 831.24, with about two stocks advancing for each one that declined. Yesterday, the Nikkei 225 fell to a level 20.5% lower than an 18-month high set on April 5 in intraday trading. Some analysts consider a 20% drop from a recent high as the beginning of a so-called bear market. The gauge later pared declines, closing down 19% from the April high. A measure tracking oil and coal companies rose the most among the 33 industry groups among the Topix index after prices of crude oil rebounded from a one-month low. Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. rose 1% to 3,405 yen. Showa Shell Sekiyu K.K., an oil refiner, rose 2.2% to 643 yen. Idemitsu Kosan Co. rose 0.7% to 7,160 yen. Crude oil for September delivery rebounded 1.3% today in Tokyo from a one-month low. Yesterday, the contract fell $2.28 to $75.74, the lowest settlement since July 12. Domestic orientated companies also rose, while exporters declined after an unexpected increase in US jobless claims. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone, also known as NTT, rose 1.1% to 3,700 yen, the fourth-biggest contributor to the Topix's advance. Fast Retailing Co., which receives 83% of its sales domestically, rose 0.2% to 12,840 yen. Eisai Co., a pharmaceutical company, increased 2.4% to 3,015 yen. Honda, Japan's second-biggest automaker, lost 0.3% to 2,789 yen. Fanuc, which receives almost 80% of its revenue outside of Japan, slipped 0.9% to 9,600 yen, the biggest drag on the Nikkei 225. Tokyo Electron Ltd., which gets 64% of revenue abroad, lost 0.7% to 4,255 yen. SOUTH KOREA South Korean stocks finished 1.42% higher on Friday, led by the technology sector, as investors snapped up bargains following recent falls, analysts said. The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) added 24.49 points to 1,746.24, snapping a three-day losing streak. The Korean Kospi posted the region's biggest gain - up 1.4% to 1,746.24. Korean Airways shares rose 2.8%, after the company bounced back from a first-quarter loss to post a second-quarter profit of nearly $300m; cargo was up by 26%, and passenger numbers by 14%. Samsung Electronics was up 2% for the day, although it remains 2.5% down for the week. South Korean export and import prices both registered double-digit growth in the June quarter from a year ago, figures showed on Friday. The Bank of Korea said export prices increased 14.8%, although this was mildly slower than the 15.2% increase in the first quarter. Petroleum products registered the largest jump in export prices. At the same time, import prices jumped 19.4%, faster than the 14.5% increase in the previous quarter. Crude material & fuel prices jumped 30.9%. During the second quarter, the net barter terms of trade index worsened by 3.9%, but the income terms of trade index improved by 13.8%. HONG KONG Hong Kong stocks fell for a fourth-straight session, edging down 0.16% in quiet trade as investors were unable to shake off concerns over the global economy. Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index dropped 34.14 points to 21,071.57. Turnover was HK$57.69 billion. Analysts said the index could lift next week on bargain hunting and more upbeat earnings reports. HSBC fell 0.5% to HK$79.60, while China Mobile fell 1.8% to HK$82.55 on profit-taking after it rose 2.7% in the past two sessions. Mainland shares closed up 1.21% amid growing signs that the world's third-largest economy is slowing, making further tightening policies unlikely, dealers said. The Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A and B shares, was up 31.23 points at 2,606.70 on turnover of 91.3 billion yuan (HK$104.4 billion). China said on Wednesday its industrial production growth slowed to 13.4% in July from 13.7% in June, and urban fixed-asset investment in the January-July period rose 24.9% from a year earlier, down from the 25.5% rise in the first half. Banks led the gains on bargain hunting. China Construction Bank added 0.4% to 4.75 yuan after 2.9% fall over the previous four sessions. Citic Bank jumped 1.8% to 5.74 yuan after 5.4% decline over the same period. China Vanke, the country's largest property developer by market share, rose 4.5% to 8.84 yuan. Poly Real Estate Group were up 2.4% at 12.86 yuan, while Gemdale increased 1.5% to 6.95 yuan. New World Development Co., a developer controlled by billionaire Cheng Yu-tung, declined 2.7%. Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., the city's largest developer by market value, lost 1.5%. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. advanced 2.6% after billionaire Li Ka-shing raised his stake in his biggest company. CHINA China's shares rebounded Friday, led by real estate and steel, on hopes slowing economic growth will prompt Beijing to ease credit curbs. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.2%, or 31.22 point, to close at 2,606.70, but ended down 1.9% for the week. The Shenzhen Composite Index for China's smaller second exchange gained 1.8%, or 19.6 points, to 1,102.79. Data this week showing weaker-than-expected July growth in factory output prompted investor hopes the government might ease credit controls or scale back measures to reduce industrial overcapacity, said Peng Yunliang, a strategist for Shanghai Securities.
Major companies in industries from real estate to banking to airlines all gained. Developers rose amid expectations Beijing will ease credit curbs following weaker-than-expected July factory production and retail sales. The country's biggest developer, China Vanke Ltd., added 4.5% to 8.84 yuan. Steelmakers also rebounded after declining this week on weak demand following government credit and investment curbs. Beijing Shougang Co., a major producer, gained 2% to 3.54 yuan. The biggest commercial lender, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., added 0.2%, or 0.01 points, to 4.13 yuan. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, rose 1.3% to 8.29 yuan. China Eastern Airlines added 3.2% to 7.78 yuan. TAIWAN Taiwan share prices closed up 0.78% Friday on a technical rebound after the market incurred heavy losses in the past few sessions amid concerns over the global economic climate, dealers said. The weighted index rose 61.79 points to 7,891.58 after moving between 7,830.46 and 7,906.35 on turnover of NT$131.15 billion (US$4.10 billion). The market opened up 0.21% as bargain hunting emerged and the momentum accelerated, led by the bellwether electronics sector, which had been hard hit, in particular, by worse-than-expected July sales reported by personal computer stocks, dealers said. The buying also spread to old economy shares, as investors still embraced high hopes that increasing economic exchanges across the Taiwan Strait will boost their earnings, they said. A total of 2,673 stocks closed up and 1,065 were down, with 299 remaining unchanged. The construction sector scored the highest gains, up 2.4%. Plastics and chemical stocks rose 1.2%, paper and pulp shares added 1.0%, machinery and electronics gained 0.9%, and textile stocks added 0.80. Foodstuffs and financial stocks gained 0.3%, while the cement sector fell 0.10%. After the index rose to breach the key 8,000-point mark Monday, investors scrambled to take profits, pushing the market down 2.63% in the past three trading days. Among the small and medium-sized stocks, touch panel maker Wintek rose 6.88% to NT$37.30 and optical storage media firm Gigastorage gained 6.13% to end at NT$45.90. However, large-cap United Microelectronics Corp. closed unchanged at NT$14.10, while rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell 0.17% to finish the day at NT$60.10. In the old economy sector, Prince Housing rose 3.13% to close at NT$16.50, while Taiwan Pulp and Paper gained 4.18% to end trading at NT$14.95. THE PHILIPPINES Local stocks succumbed to further profit-taking on Friday alongside jittery overseas markets. The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index lost 13.58 points or 0.39% to end at 3,469.52. For the full week, the index shed a total of 46.76 points or 1.3% after trading at 31-month highs. The market was weighed down on Friday by the holding firms, property and services counters notwithstanding a firm trading on the industrial and mining/oil sub-sectors. There were 67 advancers as against 54 decliners and 36 unchanged stocks. Value turnover stood at P3.2 billion or within the average daily volume. Despite the overall index decline, the two most actively traded stocks managed to keep afloat - Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. and Alliance Global Group Inc. Investors picked up PLDT shares on bargain-hunting while AGI successfully debuted into the overseas market with a $500-million bond issue. On the other hand, DMCI Holdings, Ayala Land, Megaworld, Aboitiz Power, Filinvest Land, Robinsons Land, SM Investments and Philweb continued to take a beating.
SINGAPORE Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.4% to 2,939.97 at the close, trimming its weekly decline to 1.8%. Three stocks advanced for each one that fell on the 30-member gauge. Shares on the measure trade at 14.2 times estimated earnings, compared with about 17.4 times at the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg data. The following shares were among the most active in the market. Shipping companies: The Baltic Dry Index of commodity- shipping rates rose 2.5% in London yesterday to its highest level since June 29. STX Pan Ocean, South Korea's biggest bulk carrier, gained 2.1% to S$13.88. Cosco Corp. Singapore, a China-based shipbuilder that also operates bulk carriers, climbed 1.3% to S$1.61. The company said it won a $48 million contract to build two ships. Boustead Singapore, a provider of engineering services, increased 4.8% to 88 Singapore cents. The company said second-quarter profit increased to S$31.9 million ($23.4 million) from S$9.5 million a year earlier. Genting Singapore, the owner of one of two casinos in the city-state, surged 14% to S$1.46, a record closing high. The company posted a second-quarter profit of S$396.5 million, compared with a loss of S$50.7 million a year earlier. Credit Suisse Group AG upgraded the stock to "outperform" from "underperform," while Citigroup Inc. raised its rating to "buy" from "sell." Morgan Stanley boosted its recommendation to "overweight" from "equal-weight." Noble Group, the commodities supplier partly owned by China Investment Corp., fell 1.9% to S$1.56. The company said second-quarter profit tumbled 65% to $85.9 million from a year earlier after costs rose and as last year's income was inflated by a revaluation gain. CIMB Group Holdings Bhd cut its rating to "underperform" from "outperform." Sembcorp Industries, the parent of the world's second-biggest oil-rig maker, gained 0.5% to S$4.12. The company said second-quarter profit climbed 14% to S$161.2 million from a year earlier. Wilmar International, the world's biggest palm-oil trader, declined 2.2% to S$6.13. The company said second-quarter profit fell 15% to $344.5 million due to lower margins and revaluation losses from convertible bonds. That missed the median analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey for profit of $462 million. MALAYSIA Share prices on Bursa Malaysia reversed three days of losses to end higher Friday prompted by bargain hunting in an over-sold bourse led by gains earned by Genting and its related counters. At 5pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) stood at 1,360.15, up 10.82 points after opening 2.47 better at 1,351.8. Sentiment was boosted by overall gains in regional equity markets despite overnight losses on Wall Street, said a dealer. Genting and its related companies hogged the gainers' list after Genting New York won a racing franchise bid. Gentings Bhd topped the list, surging 48 sen, to end at RM8.18, Genting Malaysia gained five sen to RM2.79 and Genting Plantation earned 21 sen to RM7.34. The Finance Index jumped 45.29 points to 12,214.73, the Plantation Index added 31.82 points to 6,498.34 and the Industrial Index rose 2.95 points to 2,651.21. The FBM Emas Index surged 72.02 points to 9,212.06, the FBM70 Index gained 61.38 points to 9,194.7 but the FBM Ace Index shed 9.07 to 3,813.26. Advancers thrashed decliners 502 to 228 while 268 counters were unchanged, 375 untraded and 33 others were suspended. Total volume increased to 995.997 million shares, worth RM1.360 billion, from 798.188 million shares, worth RM1.088 billion, registered yesterday. Among actives, Sinotop eased one sen to 16 sen, Mieco added seven sen to 86 sen, Time DotCom was flat at 66.5 sen and SIG Gases perked three sen to 72 sen. Heavyweights, Maybank rose six sen to RM7.72, CIMB climbed three sen to RM7.31 while both Sime and Maxis added two sen each to RM7.62 and RM5.30, respectively. The main market volume rose to 864.803 million shares, worth RM1.336 billion, from 719.338 million shares, worth RM1.074 billion, recorded on Thursday. Warrants jumped to 83.328 million shares, valued at RM14.284 million, compared with 36.759 million units, valued at RM5.072 million, registered Thursday. Turnover on the ACE market climbed to 41.072 million shares, worth RM7.484 million, versus 36.296 million shares, worth RM6.332 million, on Thursday. Consumer products accounted for 117.352 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 221.165 million, construction 57.012 million, trade and services 224.574 million, technology 44.494 million, infrastructure 34.262 million, finance 62.904 million, hotels 6.093 million, properties 80.090 million, plantations 14.319 million, mining 104,000, REITs 2.348 million and closed/fund 82,000.
THAILAND The SET in Bangkok was closed for a holiday Friday. But meanwhile, Thai Airways International's board approved a plan for the national carrier to borrow about $550 million to pay for new airplanes as tourists return to Thailand, President Piyasvasti Amranand said. The airline will borrow 17.5 billion baht ($548 million) from four Thai banks, with 12 billion baht of that coming from Bangkok Bank Pcl, the nation's largest lender. The move will help Thai Airways add capacity to handle more passengers as demand picks up following recent unrest, Piyasvasti said. "Tourists came back quickly after the political situation stabilized," he told reporters in Bangkok Friday. "So we're now revisiting our old problem of aircraft shortages. " Thai Air, which competes with Singapore Airlines Ltd. and regional carriers to carry travelers to beach resorts like Phuket, has sought to modernize its fleet and expand routes as it copes with political unrest that has cut into its profit in recent years. The airline agreed in June to acquire 15 aircraft from Boeing Co. and Airbus SAS to replace aging planes.
INDONESIA Indonesian stocks pulled out of a three-day rut on Friday as strong earnings reports from large regional companies outweighed an unexpected rise in US jobless claims, intensifying concerns the global recovery was stalling. The Jakarta Composite Index climbed 27.37 points, or 0.9%, to close at 3,053.01, losing 0.3% for the week. About 3.43 billion shares worth Rp 4.83 trillion ($540 million) changed hands. Gainers edged out decliners 119 to 81. Genting Singapore, a unit of Asia's second-biggest listed casino operator, and Taiwan's Wintek, which makes liquid-crystal displays, surged at least 6.9% after the companies returned to profit in the second quarter. Hutchison Whampoa rose 2.6% in Hong Kong after billionaire Li Ka-shing made his biggest investment in the shares in at least seven years. The finance sector led local gains, with Bank Negara Indonesia, the nation's third-biggest state-owned bank, advancing 5% to Rp 3,150. Thursday's sale of a 3.1% stake in the lender attracted demand of 3.93 times more than shares on offer, and raised Rp 1.37 trillion. Timah, Indonesia's largest tin producer, rose 3.2% to Rp 2,425. State-owned Perusahaan Gas Negara, the nation's biggest distributor of the fuel, climbed 1.2% to Rp 4,100. Meanwhile, the rupiah advanced the most since June on optimism the nation's improving economy would continue to lure funds from abroad. The rupiah gained 0.5% to 8,975 against the Dollar as of 4:16 p.m. in Jakarta, the most since June 21, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency ended the week down 0.4%. The rupiah pared its losses for the week after research firm EPFR Global said funds investing in emerging-market local-currency debt have attracted $16.9 billion of net inflows so far this year, more than triple the record annual intake of $5 billion recorded in 2007. Indonesia expanded at the fastest pace in almost two years during the second quarter, and foreigners invested $1.4 billion here this year. "The rupiah is being supported by strong economic fundamentals and the trend of increasing foreign funds and portfolio investment," said Helmi Arman, an economist at Bank Danamon in Jakarta. "There is no reason for a sustainable depreciation of the currency." The rupiah may average 9,100 against the Dollar this year, Bank Indonesia Governor-designate Darmin Nasution said on Friday. INDIA Stocks in Mumbai gained led after better-than-expected profits from Tata Steel and Adani. Bank of India plans to raise capital to increase its regulatory capital requirements. India gives two more weeks to Research in Motion Ltd to resolve security issues. Darjeeling tea prices surge 50%. Stocks in India traded higher, extending gains for a second week after Tata Steel and Adani Enterprises reported better-than-expected profits. The Sensex Index gained 0.52% or 93.13 to close at 18,167.03. The CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange gained 0.7% to 5,453.65. Tata Steel'd first quarter profit rose 102% from a year ago to Rs 1,579 crore. The company posted 17% rise in sales at Rs 6,471 crore for the first quarter ended June 30. Net income, including U.K. unit Corus was Rs 1,830 crore in the three months ended June 30 compared with a loss of Rs 2,210 crore in the prior year, the Mumbai-based company said Wednesday. Bank of India plans to raise Rs 10,286 crore selling bonds and shares. Debt will be issued to increase its Tier-II and upper Tier-II capital, the company said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange. Bonds without specific maturities and tenors above 10 years are used by Indian banks to increase their Tier-I capital without changing shareholding patterns. India gave Research in Motion Ltd time till August 31 to resolve the government concerns regarding the Internet and data services access from its smart-phone, a Home Ministry official said Wednesday. Credit Suisse received banking license in India a day after RBI said it will grant new licenses. Rainfall in India was recorded as 4% below average since June 1 says Indian Meteorological Department. Dynamatic Technologies Ltd plans to invest Rs 9,000 crore to tap rising demand for defense equipment and automobiles in India. Starting June, the company became the only supplier of beams used in Airbus A-320 single-aisle planes. The company is focusing on aerospace as revenue from that segment surged 10-fold, CEO Udayant Malhoutra said in an interview in Bangalore today. The price of Darjeeling Tea, one of the most sought after tea flavors, jumped as much as 50% from a year ago as drought conditions followed by excessive rains dwindled supplies. Arvind Ltd, a supplier of denim to Levi Strauss & Co and Gap Inc, said it expects annual sales to jump as much as 23.5% as buyers in the US and India spend more on clothes according to Chairman and Managing Director Sanjay Lalbhai. Group sales at the company may climb to Rs 4,000 crore in the year to March 2011, from Rs 3,240 crore a year ago, Lalbhai said in an interview Thursday. Adani Enterprises' first quarter net rises nearly 218% to Rs 407.5 crore from Rs 128 crore in the prior year before the merger with Mundra port. India will go after any company, including Google and Skype, after cracking down on BlackBerry in its efforts to keep the world's fastest growing mobile market safe from militants and cyber spying, a government source said Friday. Adani Enterprises Limited increased 4.3% to Rs 626.00 after the commodity export company reported first quarter consolidated net profit rose 218% to Rs 407 crore. ABG Infralogistics Limited rose 2% to Rs 201.35 after the crane service provider received a contract from Tuticorin Port Trust for developing North Cargo Berth-II for handling bulk cargoes at Tuticorin port. Adhunik Metaliks Limited rose 1.9% to Rs 117.00 after the steel company said first quarter consolidated net profit increased 208.5% to Rs 56.43 crore. AUSTRALIA In Australia, the ASX 200 closed 1.3% to upside at 4459, having reversed earlier losses where the index traded as low as 4393. Gains for the day were paced by a dominant rebound by the materials sector as well as solid contributions from the energy, financial and industrial sectors. The prospects of the market today were probably going to rest with the performance of the materials sector. While US leads for the financial, industrials and energy sectors were weak, the US materials sector managed to post a gain of 0.5%. We also saw some stability in base metal prices overnight after nearly a week of continuous falls. This enabled materials names to outperform today with the sector surging 2.2% higher to clearly finish the standout performer of the session. Heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, which had both been heavily sold down in recent days, ended? 1.9% and 2.3% firmer respectively while Fortescue Metals also rebounded by 2.8%. Given the US$13/oz surge in the gold price overnight to US$1213, it was not surprising to see both Newcrest Mining and Lihir Gold firmer by more than 2.3%. Also supporting the market today was a turnaround in the fortunes of the financial and energy sectors. Both reversed earlier losses to finish higher by 1% and 2.1% respectively. All big four banks were firmer between 0.3% and 1.6%. Elsewhere in the sector, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and QBE Insurance were higher by 1% and 0.5% respectively. Meanwhile, the major energy names shrugged off a further 2.2% fall in crude prices to be broadly higher. Santos, Oil Search, Woodside Petroleum and Caltex all saw gains between 1.2% and 2.5% while coal players Macarthur Coal and Whitehaven Coal were both higher by 2% and 1.3% respectively. In other noteworthy news, Telstra continued to be on the nose after announcing its disappointing 2011 outlook yesterday. Numerous brokers were quick to downgrade the stock with shares a further 0.7% lower today after getting slammed by nearly 10% yesterday. Also, Myer built on yesterday's healthy 4.6% advance with the market continuing to warm to its FY EBIT upgrade which was announced yesterday on the back of a better-than-expected Q4 sales performance. Shares were up a further 1.9% today. The Australian market has shown some decent resilience today but you have to wonder if that's all it is. Holding firms against the onslaught is one thing, moving forward is another. With choppy economic data the hallmark of any economic recovery, let alone the emergence from the GFC , you'd have to think we're in for a rocky ride on the economic rollercoaster for some time to come. Given nothing to date has been able to power Australia forward, what's likely to change in the near to medium term?? The lack of any obvious spark is clearly weighing on investors who clearly seem exhausted from swimming against the tide. Maybe the answer lies in the market getting past its ludicrous obsession with concerns over Chinese growth. China is trying to slow its boat to let the rest catch up but be assured it has plenty of horsepower in reserve if it wants to speed ahead. No one seems to get this. Australia's unemployment rate rose unexpectedly in July, official figures showed on Thursday. At the same time the number of jobs added during the month climbed more than expected, which suggests that the rise in the unemployment rate may have been triggered by more people joining the Labour force. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the unemployment rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 5.3% in July from 5.1% in June. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to record no change. The unemployment rate among males was unchanged at 5.1%, while that among females was at 5.3%. Some 631,800 Australians were unemployed at the end of July, an increase of 24,600 from June. The number of people looking for full-time work increased by 17,300 to 449,300, while those looking for part-time work increased by 7,300 to 182,500. Meanwhile, the total number of employed people increased by 23,500 to 11.2 million - higher than forecasts for a 20,000 increase. Full-time employment decreased by 4,200 to 7.9 million, while part-time employment was up by 27,700 to 3.4 million. Analysts at Westpac said the rise in the unemployment rate reflected revisions to the country's population benchmarks, which saw an increase in the level of the working age population. This resulted in the employment rise being more than offset by the strong one-off 48,100 swelling of the total Labour force. The Labour force participation rate, which is the proportion of the country's working-age population that is employed, increased to 65.5% from 65.3%. The aggregate number of hours worked decreased by 7.2 million to 1.6 billion hours. The stutter in the jobs market comes at an inoppurtune time for Australia's Labour government, with national polls just nine days away. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has banked her election campaigning heavily on Labour's economic record. Opinion polls suggest a tight vote, with Labour edging it slightly. The Labour Party was preferred by 52% of voters in a Newspoll survey published in the Australian newspaper on Monday, compared with 48% who support Tony Abbott's Liberal-National coalition. The surprise numbers also reduce the chance of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next month. The bank had decided to hold its cash rate steady at 4.50% in its August meeting, offering businesses and households a reprieve for a third straight month. At the height of the global recession, the Australian government projected the unemployment rate to reach as high as 8.5% before falling. But the Labour market has recovered sooner, with the unemployment rate reaching a peak of just 5.8% in June last year. Resource-rich Australia has benefitted hugely from surging demand in China and other Asian economies for its commodities. Figures released last week showed that the country's monthly trade balance logged a record high surplus of A$3.5 billion in June, fueled by a large increase in exports of commodities such as coal and iron ore. The country was the only major economy to skirt a technical recession during the global financial crisis, contracting only in the final three months of 2008. It was also the first major economy to raise interest rates in the aftermath of the global downturn.
NEW ZEALAND New Zealand stocks snapped a three-day decline as better-than-expected June retail sales numbers helped the bourse shrug off negative sentiment from offshore markets. Michael Hill International Ltd., Kathmandu Holdings and Briscoe Group led retailers on the day. The NZX 50 rose 8.2 points, or 0.3%, to 3015.14. Within the index 27 stocks rose, 15 fell and 13 were unchanged. Turnover was $68.7 million. The NZSX Consumer Index rose 0.8% to 1573.7 after data from Statistics New Zealand showed consumer spending on recreational items had soared in June, lifting retail sales in the survey's biggest monthly gain since February 2007. Michael Hill International, the jewellery chain, rose 3% to 69 cents, Kathmandu Holdings, the outdoor retailer, rose 1.9% to $1.64, and homeware retailer Briscoe Group rose 1.8% to $1.13. Pumpkin Patch Ltd, the children's clothing chain, rose 1.2% to $1.75. Shares in NZ Farming Systems Uruguay Ltd., the South American dairy operator, rose 3.6% to 58 cents, leading gainers on the day. The company had earlier announced that it has been granted tax benefits with an estimated current value of $US20 million to $US25 million (NZ$28 -NZ$35 million) under Uruguayan tax law. Farming Systems is currently facing a takeover bid 18.45% Singaporean shareholder Olam International, which has offered to acquire shares in the company it didn't already own at 55 cents apiece. Pyne Gould Corp., the financial services company, rose 2.5% to 41 cents, Telecom Corp., New Zealand's largest telephone company, rose 2.5% to $2.06, and Contact Energy Ltd., the Auckland based utility company, rose 1.7% to $5.80. PGG Wrightson Ltd., the rural services company, fell 7.1% to 52 cents, leading declines. The company earlier announced it full year earnings, with profit for the year at $23.3 million, or 4 cents, up from a loss of $66.4 million previously. The company has been transformed over the past two years in terms of officers, business units and capital after installing Tim Miles as chief executive, banking sector heavyweight John Anderson as chairman and raising about $250 million to slash debt in an offer that installed China's Agria Corp. as biggest shareholder. Air New Zealand Ltd, the national carrier, rose 0.8% to $1.14. The airline's international airline group general manager, Ed Sims, announced today he is leaving the company. Fletcher Building Ltd., the largest company on the exchange, fell 1.6% to $7.35, after data showed that New Zealand residential property sales plummeted to their lowest level for a July month in a decade, as rising interest rates, slower population growth and tax changes took their toll on the market. The REINZ Monthly Housing Price Index showed nationwide prices also fell in July, down 1.2% to 3191.5 from June. In the three months to July, the index shows housing prices decreased by 1.1%. APN News & Media Ltd., another dual-listed company, fell 3.1% to $2.52, Goodman Fielder Ltd., the food ingredient maker, fell 1.3% to $1.57 and Freightways Ltd., the integrated logistics company, fell 1.1% to $2.68. Telstra Corp., the dual-listed telecommunication company, fell 2.1% to 3.65. Earlier its Australian parent company had announced that it was selling its 51% stake in SouFun, China's second-largest online real estate website, for about US$413.1 million (NZ$579.4 million). The Australian telco said private equity firms General Atlantic and Apax Partners and the two existing shareholders of SouFun (founder Vincent Mo and venture capital firm IDG), have agreed to buy any of Telstra's shares in SouFun which aren't sold through a public float up to an agreed maximum price. Public sector restraint and innovation will be needed for many years to improve the quality of frontline services, while also ensuring New Zealand overturns its deficit and controls its debt, the country's Finance Minister, Bill English, said on Thursday.
English said the government is facing the challenging task of finding further savings in the public sector so that services can improve, while also rebalancing the economy away from spending towards savings and exports. "It's not an option for the public sector to wait out these challenges," he said at an event in Melbourne. "Hope is not a strategy. And it won't work because the New Zealand public want to see evidence that the public sector is living within its means, as New Zealanders are themselves." English said New Zealand faces five more years of budget shortfalls. "Even when we get back to surplus, there will be strong competing demands on government spending - high government debt will need to be repaid and, when surpluses permit, we will resume contributions to the N.Z. Super Fund," he said. "Therefore we are likely to require surpluses of at least 2% of GDP before we even have the choice of significantly increasing public spending." Food prices in New Zealand increased 1.6% in July compared to June, but were 1.0% lower than they were one year ago. Statistics NZ reported Thursday that the higher monthly price reflected higher dairy prices and a winter increase in the price of vegetables. The monthly increase follows a 1.3% on-month increase in June and a 0.7% Decrease in May. The 1.0% on-year decline marked the third consecutive annual decline in food prices. |
| Global Commodities
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' ..... | Oil prices ended the week lower after the Opec oil cartel and the International Energy Agency highlighted their worries about global oil demand growth. The Opec oil cartel on Friday said in its monthly report that, "given the projected slowdown in the world economy in the second half of this year", it remained cautious about oil demand growth for 2010, forecasting a rise for the year of 1m barrels a day. The IEA, the western countries' energy watchdog, was more positive, forecasting this week that global oil demand would grow this year by 1.8m b/d. But it said concerns about a slowdown in global economic activity in the second half of the year posed "a significant downward risk to the forecast". Opec is to meet in October 14 to review its production levels but Friday's bearish outlook for demand suggests it will leave its oil output levels unchanged. "Given the current supply-demand outlook, the overhang in inventories is not expected to change significantly in the coming quarters," the cartel said. In New York, Nymex September West Texas Intermediate closed at $75.39 a barrel, down 35 cents on the day. In London, ICE September Brent fell to $75.11 a barrel, down 41 cents on the day. But oil prices remain firmly within the $70-$80 trading range in place since last October. Natural gas, heating oil and gasoline prices also declined during the week. In other commodity markets, cotton prices hit a fresh 2½-year high Friday as Pakistan's floods raised expectations the country would have to step up purchases in already-tight international markets. ICE October cotton hit 89.17 cents per Pound, up 5.6% on the week. The December contract traded at 84.92. Pakistan is the second-biggest importer of cotton after China. The US Department of Agriculture on Thursday said crop damage would be hard to assess until the floods had receded. But its preliminary assessment was that "significant damage has occurred". |
| Global Currencies
In for a Penny, in for a Pound ..... | 
The Euro tumbled from a three-month high against the Dollar this week as concerns over Eurozone government debt resurfaced and fears over global growth boosted haven demand for the US currency. A downgrade to the US Federal Reserve's growth outlookafter its policy meeting on Tuesday reignited concerns over the health of the debt markets in the export-orientated Eurozone. This pushed the spread of the yield of government bonds of countries on the periphery of the Eurozone, such as Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, over their German counterparts all wider. The divergence in the Eurozone was further highlighted on Friday as second-quarter gross domestic product figures for the region showed robust growth of 2.2% in Germany but a 1.5% contraction in Greece, which remains firmly in recession, and only modest growth of 0.2% in Spain and 0.4% in Italy. Over the week, the Euro tumbled 3.9% to a three-week low of $1.2763 against the Dollar. The Euro also fell 1.7% to a six-week low of £0.8191 against the Pound, lost 2.5% to SFr1.3444 against the Swiss franc and dropped 3.5% to Y109.59 against the Yen. Elsewhere, the Dollar advanced as the Fed's gloomy assessment of the economy combined with weaker-than-expected Chinese industrial production data to undermine equities and investor confidence and fuel haven demand for the US currency. Over the week, the Dollar climbed 2.3% to $1.5582 against the Pound, gained 1.3% to SFr1.0523 against the Swiss franc and rose 2.3% to $0.8972 against the Australian Dollar. The Yen also benefited, hitting a 15-year high against the Dollar. Helped by rising risk aversion and a drop in US two-year Treasury yields to record low levels, the Yen surged to a high of Y84.72 against the Dollar on Wednesday as haven demand for the Yen rose and falling yields discouraged Japanese investors from sending capital abroad. This prompted a ratcheting up of verbal intervention from Japanese officials aimed at reining in Yen strength and raised speculation that they may intervene physically in the market. Naoto Kan, Japan's prime minister, called the Yen's appreciation "rough" while Yoshihiko Noda, finance minister, said the ministry was monitoring the foreign exchange market "with great interest". Any near-term action to combat Yen strength is more likely to take the form of further monetary easing from the Bank of Japan than physical intervention in the currency market, however, given the international community's lack of support for such a move. Over the week, the Yen fell 0.4% to Y85.81 against the Dollar. The Korean Won had its biggest weekly drop in more than two months on signs demand is cooling in the US and China, South Korea's biggest export markets. The currency rose for the first time in four days Friday and the Kospi stock index led gains among regional stock benchmarks after a government report showed household earnings grew in the second quarter at the fastest pace in at least seven years. The US Thursday announced the highest initial jobless claims since February and China this week reported the smallest increase in industrial output in 11 months. The won dropped 1.8% this week to 1,183.7 per Dollar as of close in Seoul. The currency gained 0.2% from Thursday. The South African Rand depreciated for a fourth day, extending its first weekly drop in six, as concern about the global recovery damped investor appetite for the added risk of higher-yielding emerging-market assets. South Africa's currency depreciated as much as 0.4% to 7.3217 per Dollar and traded 0.3% weaker at 7.3156 by 4:52 p.m. in Johannesburg, from a previous close of 7.2928, bringing the retreat this week to 1.2%. And as per the norm', I'll close currencies this week here in China and the RMB. China's RMB weakened against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive session Friday, after the People's Bank of China set the reference Dollar-RMB central parity rate at a fresh seven-week high. Traders said the RMB could stay around the current level or weaken further next week if the Dollar remains strong and concerns about a slowing global economic recovery persist. On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.7944, up from Thursday's close of CNY6.7851. It traded between CNY6.7853 and CNY6.7996, the highest intraday level since June 29 when it hit CNY6.7999. |
| China
Key news eminating from China this week ..... |
 China's consumer price inflation rate accelerated in July as a result of heavy flooding driving up food prices, while other key indicators showed a cooling trend. The data suggests the world's third largest economy is slowing amid government measures to slow lending and curb a booming real estate market. Consumer prices increased 3.3% year-on-year in June, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. This was in line with expectations, and follows a 2.9% rise in the previous month. The pick up in inflation was mainly due to higher food prices, with heavy floods ravaging crops and disrupting transport. Food prices jumped 6.8% in June, while non-food prices were up 1.6%. The rise in inflation takes it above the 3% target set by the government, although the pick up was largely due to temporary factors. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.4% in July. Food prices climbed 0.9%. At the same time, the producer price measure of inflation slowed to 4.8% from 6.4%. Economists had forecast a 6% rise. Producer prices were up 5.7% in the manufacturing sector. The statistical office also said industrial production climbed 13.4% year-on-year in July, in line with forecasts. This followed a 13.7% increase in the preceding month. All 39 industrial sub-sectors registered growth in July. Double-digit growth was recorded in the textile, chemicals, machinery, transport and electronics sectors. Retail sales increased 17.9% annually to CNY 1.2 trillion. This came in lower than analyst expectations for a 18.5% increase and follows a 18.3% rise in June. Meanwhile, urban investment in fixed assets in the first seven months of the year reached CNY 12 trillion, up 24.9% from the same period a year ago. Economists had forecast a 25.3% increase. The slowdown in the indicators provides further evidence that the Chinese economy is slowing. The government said on Monday that imports climbed 22.7% compared with a year ago to $116.8 billion in July, well below the 34.1% expansion seen in June. Observers said the waning appetite for overseas goods was evidence that the government's tightening measures were taking effect. However, exports climbed 38.1% to a record monthly value of $145.5 billion. As a result, China's trade surplus surged to an 18-month high of $28.7 billion. The data is likely to intensify calls for China's currency, the RMB, to appreciate more. Beijing has tried to put the brakes on growth by ordering banks to increase their reserves so as to limit lending, while numerous measures have been unveiled to slowdown runaway expansion in the property market. Official data released on Monday showed that annual house price inflation slowed to 10.3% in July from 11.4% in June. The Chinese economy expanded at an annual pace of 10.3% between April and June, slowing from the 11.9% growth in the first quarter. China's fiscal revenue rose 25.7% year-on-year to 5.11 trillion RMB in the first seven months of this year, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday. In July alone, the fiscal revenue amounted to 778.32 billion RMB, marking an increase of 16.2% year-on-year. Fiscal expenditure during January to July was up 16.9% to 3.96 trillion RMB, with July logging a 16.6% increase to 581.09 billion RMB. According to the ministry, the government spent the most for eduction in the first seven months of the year. As the revenue exceeded expenditure, the fiscal balance resulted in a surplus of 1.15 trillion RMB in January to July. ************************************ China's households hide as much as 9.3 trillion RMB ($1.4 trillion) of income that is not reported in official figures, with 80% accrued by the wealthiest people, a study showed. The money, much of it likely "illegal or quasi-illegal," equates to about 30% of China's gross domestic product, the study, conducted for Credit Suisse AG and published last week by the China Reform Foundation, found. The average urban disposable household income in China is 32,154 RMB, or 90% more than official figures, according to the report. Most of that extra cash is going to the wealthiest families. The top 10% of China's households take in 139,000 RMB a year, more than triple the official figures, according to the Credit Suisse report. In contrast, the bottom 10% earns 5,350 RMB, or 13% more. The top 20% of households account for 81.3% of total hidden income, according to the study, written by Wang Xiaolu of the Beijing-based foundation. The findings indicate China's wealth gap between rich and poor, already one of the world's highest, is even wider than official figures show. Reducing income disparities is a top goal of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, who want to stave off riots, strikes and other social unrest that might threaten the six-decade rule of the Communist Party. The "grey income" comes from many sources, including gifts to officials at weddings, profits from land transfers, kickbacks from construction projects, and payoffs from state monopolies such as the tobacco industry, the study said. "Once government power is united with capital, the free competition of the market economy begins to be replaced by a monopoly of crony capitalism, leading to disparity in income and property distribution, lower economic efficiency and acute social conflicts," Wang wrote in his report's conclusion. The study, compiled in 2009, is based on interviews with families in more than 4,000 urban households in 64 cities and 19 provinces, and uses 2008 data. Its findings suggest that household income is a much higher percentage of GDP than official figures show, helping explain a surge in spending on luxury goods. Gucci, a subsidiary of Paris-based PPR SA, last year opened a store in Hebei's provincial capital of Shijiazhuang, selling snakeskin purses for more than $4,000, about twice the city's official annual per-capita income. Munich-based Bayerische Motoren Werke AG said sales in China surged 82% to 13,852 cars last month from a year earlier. The figures make sense of the wealth accumulated by local officials, often revealed during corruption trials. Hao Pengjun, a former county mine official in northern China's Shanxi province, was jailed for 20 years in April for taking in 305 million RMB illegally, the People's Daily reported. Hao owned 35 properties in Beijing including 17 in one development, according to the Shanxi Evening News. Zhang Yingxiang, a spokeswoman for China's National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing, said she hadn't seen the study and said the bureau didn't track grey income. She wouldn't say whether China's households had a substantial amount of hidden wealth. ************************************ The RMB dropped the most in seven weeks as concern the global economic recovery is faltering drove the Dollar higher and fueled speculation Chinese policy makers will restrict gains to protect exports. The People's Bank of China Friday lowered its daily reference rate by 0.36% to 6.8015 against the US currency, the steepest drop since a peg was scrapped in July 2005, after a gauge of the greenback's strength jumped the most since 2008. China's industrial output rose 13.4% from a year earlier in July, the smallest gain in 11 months, and bank lending increased by the least since March, government reports showed Thursday. China's central bank may be adjusting the pace of appreciation since data recently isn't good. It's also probably also due to the Dollar's broader strength of late. The RMB declined 0.14% to 6.7843 per Dollar Thursday in Shanghai, the biggest loss since June 22, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. Twelve-month non- deliverable forwards slid 0.26% to 6.6877, reflecting bets the currency will strengthen 1.5% from the spot rate in a year. US lawmakers have accused China of keeping the RMB's exchange rate artificially low to gain an unfair trade advantage. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said Aug. 4 he will "watch closely" how much the RMB is allowed to appreciate, after saying the previous month the currency was undervalued. China's overseas sales rose 38.1% in July from a year earlier to a record $145.5 billion, following a 43.9% gain in June, official figures show. Last month's growth was mainly due to goods being rushed out ahead of changes to tax rebates and shipments may slow sharply, Chen Quansheng, an advisor to the State Council, said Friday in Beijing. China said on June 19 it would manage the RMB against a basket of currencies, after keeping the exchange rate at about 6.83 per Dollar for almost two years. The currency, which is allowed to fluctuate by as much as 0.5% on either side of the central bank's daily fixing, has since strengthened 0.6%. The yield on the 2.76% note due in July 2017 dropped three basis points to 2.81%, and the price of the security rose 0.16 per 100 RMB face amount to 99.72, according to the National Interbank Funding Center. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Treasury two-year yields were within two basis points of a record low as stocks tumbled around the world and economists cut forecasts for US economic growth, fueling demand for the relative safety of government debt. The two-year note yielded 0.51%, after falling to a record 0.4892%. ************************************ Annual house price inflation in China cooled for the third straight month in July after rising the most in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. Property prices in 70 of China's large and medium-sized cities rose 10.3% year-on-year in July following an 11.4% increase in June. In April, property prices surged 12.8%, the biggest annual rise since July 2005. The decline in house price inflation can be attributed to efforts by government to curb speculative investment in the real estate sector. On a monthly basis, property prices remained unchanged in July following a 0.1% decline in June. Investment in real estate rose 37.2% to 2.39 trillion RMB in the first seven months of this year compared to a year earlier, the statistical agency said. However, growth slowed from a 38.1% recorded in the period January to June. Property prices in China have soared through the roof in the past year on the back of loose lending conditions. The government has since tried to put the brakes on the real estate market with a range of restrictions on property speculation, while a tax on property transactions is also thought to be under consideration. |
| Summary
The coming week looks like ..... | 
In Europe, European Gross Domestic Product figures headline the calendar for the week ahead. German output is set to add 1.3% in the three months through June while the overall Euro Zone economy grows 0.7%, with both outcomes marking the largest quarterly gains in over two years. Traders are surely looking past the second quarter at this point as they size up the headwinds from deficit-cutting measures (including rising borrowing costs on the back of increased debt issuance as well as a sharp fiscal retrenchment). That said, the outcomes may be treated as reason enough drive the Euro higher, with traders likely eager to take some profits off the table ahead of the weekend after the sharp moves earlier in the week. The UK's focus moves to Tuesday's monthly inflation figures next week, whilst in the US, a relatively quiet week on the economic front combines with the drawing to a close of the second-quarter results season. Inflation statistics for July are due to be released on Tuesday in the wake of the Bank of England's (BoE) latest quarterly inflation report. June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures showed prices increasing at 3.2% year-on-year: still uncomfortably above the Bank of England's 2% target level, despite being down from the 3.4% reported in May. Elsewhere over the week, meeting minutes from the BoE's last interest rate policy meeting are expected to be released on Wednesday, whilst on Thursday the focus moves to the high street with the latest monthly retail sales figures scheduled for release. In the US, a broad number of retailers are expected to post modest improvement in sales and earnings for the second quarter, after a group of department-store chains kicked off the earnings season this week for retailers and warned of more challenges ahead for some cash-strapped consumers. Earlier this month, the industry reported tepid sales growth in July, despite major markdowns, as the segment gears up for the back-to-school buying season. Among those expected to report higher results are Lowe's on Monday; Home Depot and Wal-Mart on Tuesday; Target on Wednesday and Gap on Thursday. Teen-focused retailers, which generally had a rough July, are suffering from a more challenging environment as teen unemployment is at record levels. That means young people have less money for new back-to-school clothes, leaving parents to pick up the slack. Already, Aeropostale has reported fiscal second-quarter sales jumped 9.3%, and it expects to report earnings growth from a year ago, although the results missed Wall Street's expectations. Abercrombie & Fitch reported higher revenue and same-store sales for the quarter, while Hot Topic posted declines. Abercrombie is scheduled to report results on Tuesday, Hot Topic will report on Wednesday, and Aeropostale and Zumiez on Thursday. Economists expect the producer price index, which measures prices of goods at the wholesale level, to have risen 0.2%, or 0.1% on a core basis, in July after the overall figure declined 0.5% in June, falling for the third straight month. Meanwhile, the Department of Commerce will report housing starts and building permits data for July. Housing starts fell more than expected in June and hit the lowest level since October. The industry has slumped after expiration of the federal home-buyer tax credit. General Motors, which reported a $1.3 billion second-quarter profit Thursday, is close to registering for an initial public offering. The auto maker's strong results, which were a stark contrast to a year ago when it lost nearly $13 billion and filed for bankruptcy, play a central role in bolstering the company's case that it is a good investment. Analysts also expect two of the larger personal computer makers, Hewlett-Packard and Dell, to report improved quarterly results on Thursday as worldwide PC shipments jumped 21% in the second quarter, according to preliminary results by Gartner Inc. It would mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth on a year-over-year basis, according to the research firm. But both Dell and H-P have suffered public relations blows in recent weeks. H-P saw its shares slide after the sudden departure of Chief Executive Mark Hurd over violations of company policy. Meanwhile, Dell shareholders on Thursday agreed to keep the company's founder, Michael Dell, on its board despite calls from two Labour groups to have him removed after he and the company settled charges with the Securities and Exchange Commission. But forget the US next week as in truth, there is very little data to be released - they are truly in 'holiday mode'. Japan will drive many markets next week I feel. The BoJ held the benchmark interest rate at 0.10% in August and maintained its economic assessment for the third month as the region continues to benefit from the rise in global trade, but policy makers showed increased concerns regarding the marked appreciation in the exchange rate as it weighs on the competitiveness of Japanese exports. The central bank said that the risks for the economy were "broadly balanced," but noted that developments in the foreign exchange market should be "examined closely" as the outlook for global growth remains clouded with uncertainties. Accordingly, BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa pledged to "carefully monitor" the rampant fluctuations in the financial markets as the strength in the Japanese Yen poses a risk to the recovery, and the central bank head is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Naoto Kan next week according to a report in a Japanese newspaper, which could spur increased speculation for a currency intervention as policy makers aim to stem the downside risks for the economy. Moreover, Japan Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda argued that the "excessive and disorderly currency moves are harmful for the stability of the economy," and went onto say that the recent moves have been "a little bit one-sided" as the recent appreciation in the exchange rate fails to reflect the underlying strength of the recovery. Finally, I have been asked this week on more than one occasion, whether I still believe commodities in general are a good buy (as opposed to a 'good-bye'). The CRB Continuous Commodity Index rallied sharply in June and July as global demand for commodities heated up, as grains soared on drought and hot weather in Russia and Europe, and as the Dollar index fell sharply. The CCI index has edged to a new 2-year high, rallying by a total of 58% from the post-crisis low posted in December 2008. The CCI index on the 1-1/2 year recovery rally has retraced 64% of the plunge seen in late 2008. My view is the commodity market remains in a multi-decade bull market and that the plunge seen in late 2008 was only a temporary downward correction. I believe the commodity markets are in a secular bull market mainly because of the theme of global development, whereby there will be a net 2.2 billion people more on earth by 2050, according to the UN, thus creating sustained long-term demand for more commodities for food, energy, and infrastructure building projects. I think that there is a good chance that commodity producers in general will be slow to respond to increasing demand and will only invest in new production when higher prices guarantee returns. The recent weakness in the Dollar tied to the easing European debt crisis and negative US interest rate differentials has helped push the CCI index to the recent 2-year high. The Dollar and the CCI index have a strong negative correlation, with weakness in the Dollar sparking strength in commodity prices and vice versa. The 20-month rolling correlation between the Dollar index and the CCI index is currently fairly strong at -0.66. The prices of individual commodities, of course, often move in different directions depending on supply/demand conditions in these individual markets. However, there is a clear bullish theme across the commodity markets of increasing demand as the global economy regains its balance after the 2008/09 financial crisis and recession. This commodity demand is being led by the developing world, just as it was before the financial crisis. So yes, I do see commodities, especially as low as they are currently, as being a good buy. On that note, it's 'good-bye' from me until next weekend or until some market-shattering news comes to the fore during the week ahead; whichever comes sooner. |
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Newsletter Written By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International | |
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