Financial Page International

14 March 2009 - Global Markets Review

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen,

"Clutching at Straws" might be an album by the Rock Band Marillion, but I prefer to use this idiom to describe global financial markets this week:
 
"trying to find some way to succeed when nothing you choose is likely to work"
 
or

"trying to find reasons to feel hopeful about a bad situation"

Either way, this is a very apt description of what has happened this week; markets are looking for anything, anything positive and are steaming ahead without rhyme or reason on the slightest hint of a bottom.

Citibank - stated that they operated at a profit for the first two months of the year.  "Whoopee", time to start buying their stock and believe that all is well in that banking giant - 24 hours after the stock dropped 35% on concerns of nationalisation. Here's the rub Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr Pandit's comments that they made 'profit' over a 60 day period, spurred investors in the US to believe the bank will start lending again - hence the positivity.

Are they crazy? Is every waking moment driven by thoughts relating to 'credit'?  Well, as they owe just over 11 Trillion US Dollars as a Nation - when China Thursday commented that they have concerns about this - perhaps they are!

Bank of America - The CEO Mr Lewis announced Friday that in his opinion BOA would make "close to $50 billion" this year, before taxes and new provisions for loan losses. Once again, euphoria, of course not forgetting that the figure of $50 billion was rapidly followed by a caveat that could be worth $85 billion to the downside!

Bank of America closed up over 100% on the week!

Other than those two positive comments from CEO's of banks that are as close to the edge as a bank should ever be allowed to get, what other positive news was there?

General Electric had its rating cut by Standard & Poor - Investors saw that astonishingly as a 'positive' and the stock soared over 12%.

General Motors the embattled carmaker, managed to gain ground after it said it did not immediately need $2bn in government aid that it had previously requested.

The company said its own cost-cutting exercise had allowed it to defer this payment (payment - how can they call it that, it is a 'loan' by any stretch of the imagination). Its shares rose 17.2% on Thursday and 23% Friday.

Retail shopping figures fell in February, but not by as much as expected - yippee, that's a positive, let's go shopping for Walmart stocks - up 4% on the news.

Ben Bernanke sees a new way of getting his message across, he is now going to appear on Sixty Minutes in the US - first stop Prime-Time, next stop Hollywood for the bearded bald wonder?

But not all new was so encouraging; claims for unemployment met a new record; Mr Madoff, now in jail, has something 'shocking' up his sleeve I believe.  By refusing to accept a plea bargain, I actually don't believe he is protecting his family/friends from conspiracy charges; I actually believe it is much deeper than that.  I believe in June when he goes to trial, we are going to see some very big names in Finance named in a very nefarious way - call it a hunch, but I see that as being the reason he never accepted a plea-bargain.

The January Retail Sales figure was revised - once again more than originally reported (seems like there is always a revision for the worse these days). Inventories also declined.

I mentioned that there were other banks to go - Australia saw its second largest Investment Bank bite the dust Friday - Babcock & Brown is no more!

The US Dollar looks increasingly like it has started its descent; the Yen hit a 2 month low and more worrying than anything, was Wen Jia Bao's comments Thursday that he is seeking assurances from the US that China's investments and money are safe.  Excuse me for asking, but how are America going to respond to that - say that the money is with Citibank or BOA?  Will that give the reassurance China seeks?

Also, Premier Wen for the first time mentioned China's currency reserves (mainly US Dollar) and said that China is always looking for what is best for the country and maintaining as risk-diverse a balance as possible.  With the US Dollar heading South for the long-term, I would not rule out China deciding to liquidate a proportion of their Currency Reserves from US Dollar into another more 'stable' currency.

And once again, Mr Wen warned the US that China will pace their currency at their own speed - and not be dictated to by others; an all-out reference to the US. He said that the RMB has mildly depreciated against the US Dollar in the past 12 months but against many European and Asian currencies, it had appreciated over 20% in the last year - so that could hardly be called 'currency manipulation'.

Well said Mr Wen; you'll have to go back to the drawing board Mr Geithner and try to come up with another way of getting the Chinese to do what you want - threats and pressure just Won't work!

Talking of our newly-found scapegoat in US Finance; Treasury Secretary Geithner on Wednesday called for a tenfold increase in the size of an emergency fund the IMF uses to help countries in trouble - to as much as $500 billion. He also endorsed the IMF's call for countries to enact stimulus packages worth, on average, 2% of their GDP.

But in a report last week, the IMF said the US was the only one of the world's seven rich industrial nations - the Group of Seven - on track to meet that goal. Wow, talk about borrowing from Xing to pay Ivan and at no point actually 'donating' anything yourself.

Ostensibly, China are paying the US's share of donations to the IMF as well.

And how about this for some financial jiggery-pokery; Merrill Lynch announced to shareholders their executive bonuses of $3.6 Billion USD. Shareholders approved. 

It was not until these had been signed, sealed and delivered that the same people reported to the board $4 Billion USD in losses and then were 'eaten up' by Bank of America.  It's all in court now and Bank of America are refusing to name the people that got those bonuses because, in the words of their lawyer, "releasing the list would cause some employees to leave because of privacy or safety concerns. Some highly paid employees have received threats."

Nothing particularly surprising there then.

But before I end my review this week, I'd like to leave you with a famous quote;

"Owners of capital will stimulate working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable.

The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalized, and State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."
                                                                          
Karl Marx, 1867

A thought to leave you with as I go straight to the numbers for the week:
  
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks clung on to their gains on Friday during a choppy trading session as rises in healthcare stocks took equities to their best weekly performance since November.

Merck, the pharmaceutical company, gained 12.7% to $27.07 after Bernstein upgraded the company to "outperform", saying it had agreed a "very fair price" for rival Schering-Plough. Schering-Plough also gained, rising 8.5% to $24.21.

Humana, the health insurer, also gained on speculation reported that it was the subject of a takeover bid. Its shares rose 7.7% to $24.83.

But CV Therapeutics lost ground after Japan's Astellas said it might not re-bid for the company after it accepted a rival bid from Gilead Sciences. CV lost 1.8% to $20.67.

The financial sector finished in positive territory as gains in the banking sector outweighed fears over bad debts in the credit card market. Banks received a boost after Richard Parsons, the chairman of Citigroup, said the bank would not need more capital injections from government, further allaying fears of nationalisation. Citi gained 6.6% to $1.78, and JPMorgan picked up 2.4% to $23.75.

But credit card companies Discover Financial and Capital One both lost out, the latter after announcing a change to executives' compensation schemes that will convert cash bonuses and equity incentives into salary and restricted stock. Discover fell 5.9% to $6.23 and Capital One lost 5.6% to $12.56

The benchmark S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both gained 0.8% to 756.55 points and 7,223.98 points respectively. The Nasdaq Composite index was up 0.4% at 1,431.5 points. The gains followed a surge on Thursday after Ken Lewis, chief executive of Bank of America, became the third leading bank boss to say his company had been profitable for the first two months of 2009.

The market was given a boost late on Thursday when President Barack Obama said he would be willing to consider lowering the corporate tax rate if people within business helped him to close tax loopholes.

The energy sector put pressure on the S&P after OPEC cut its forecast for oil demand, with Chevron losing 0.8% to $62.91.

Palm was one of the biggest gainers after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the cellphone manufacturer to outperform from sector perform, based on its plans to dominate the smartphone market. Its shares lifted 6.7% to $8.39.

It was not all good news for technology stocks, as National Semiconductor, the chipmaker, was downgraded to junk status by Standard & Poor's, the rating agency. The company lost 8.8% to $10.05.

Warren Buffett spent Monday talking up the stocks he holds, but his company remains too exposed to losses on its portfolio, says Fitch, which cut Berkshire Hathaway's AAA rating. Shares then fell 3.2%.
  
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean equities enjoyed strong gains as rebounding banks and insurers drove the continent's shares to their best weekly performance of the year.

The week began with the 12 year-old pan-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 index sliding to a record low - with little indication the market could muster a rally.

Yet by Tuesday, on little newsflow, the index surged - racking up four consecutive sessions of gains.

The battered FTSE Eurofirst 300 real estate sector rose 3.1% over the week, while the index's banking component gained 18%. Tobacco, viewed by investors as resistant to recessions, saw a weekly fall of 1.9%. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 5.9% over the week to 702.12.

GERMANY

Germany's DAX Index slipped for the first time in five days, trimming its biggest weekly gain this year, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for the global economy and predicted a deeper recession in Europe.

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG, the world's biggest makers of luxury cars, snapped a five-day advance after European auto sales dropped. K+S AG rose 3.5% on a report that said Europe's largest producer of potash used in fertilizers had shelved a planned bid for Compass Minerals International Inc.

The DAX Index fell 0.1% to 3,953.6. The benchmark measure for German equities still climbed 7.8% this week, the steepest advance since the period ended Nov. 28, after Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. said they were profitable in the first two months of the year, fueling speculation the worst of the banking crisis may be over.

BMW, the biggest maker of luxury cars, dropped 3.5% to 22.57 Euros. Daimler, the second-largest, slipped 1.6% to 21.55 Euros. European car sales plunged 18% in February as the global recession stifled demand for Opel, Mercedes-Benz and BMW models, especially in the once booming eastern part of the continent.

ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany's largest steelmaker, fell 3.5% to 14.68 Euros. Salzgitter AG, the second-biggest, declined 2.3% to 43.69 Euros.

K+S climbed 3.5% to 32.59 Euros, snapping a two-day drop. The company has decided to delay indefinitely an offer to buy Compass of the US, Financial Times Deutschland reported, citing a person familiar with the plan.

MLP AG surged 19% to 7.45 Euros as Swiss Life Holding AG said it's in talks with Talanx AG, Germany's third-biggest insurer, over the Swiss life insurer's stake in financial-services broker MLP. Zurich-based Swiss Life in August bought a 24% stake in MLP, which opposes the investment.

Allianz SE, Germany's largest insurer, added 2.2% to 56.39 Euros.

Solar-Fabrik AG slipped 1.8% to 2.20, snapping a two-day advance. The maker of electricity generators powered by sunlight said its full-year operating loss widened and that it may declare insolvency for its wafer unit, Global Expertise Wafer Division Ltd.

United Internet AG rallied 11% to 5.11 Euros. Germany's third-largest Web-access provider is among companies being eyed by Telefonica SA as a potential acquisition target, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, citing unidentified people close to the companies.

FRANCE

France's benchmark CAC 40 Index rose for a fourth day, adding 11.38, or 0.4%, to 2,705.63. The SBF-120 Index rose 0.3%.

Accor SA rose 35 cents, or 1.3%, to 27.40 Euros, making a fourth day of gains this week. Europe's biggest hotel owner named Chief Financial Officer Jacques Stern as group senior executive vice president. The news is "excellent for the group's executive management," Natixis Securities analysts including Andre Juillard wrote in a note. The brokerage reiterated a "buy" rating on the stock.

Alcatel-Lucent SA climbed 15 cents, or 15%, to 1.18 Euros, the highest in about three weeks. Bank of America Corp. upgraded the world's largest maker of fixed-line networks to "neutral" from "underperform."

The company is aiming for positive net income in the second half of 2010, Les Echos reported, citing Chief Financial Officer Paul Tufano.

Boiron SA dropped the most in more than three years, losing 2.05 Euros, or 9.1%, to 20.45. The homeopathic drugmaker was downgraded to "reduce" from "add" at Oddo Securities and to "underperform" from "outperform" at Cheuvreux, which cited "the lack of sales visibility."

France Telecom SA gained 56 cents, or 3.3%, to 17.65 Euros, the biggest gain in more than five weeks. Morgan Stanley upgraded Europe's third-largest phone company to "equal-weight" from "underweight." The brokerage cited "better visibility on cashflow generation, supportive and safe cash returns, lower M&A risk."

Haulotte Group climbed the most since Nov. 3, increasing 21 cents, or 8.3%, to 2.75 Euros.

Lafarge SA, the world's largest cement maker, retreated 1.6 Euros, or 4.5%, to 33.52 Euros.

Cie. de Saint-Gobain SA, Europe's biggest supplier of building materials, dropped 63 cents, or 3%, to 20.37 Euros. The group is particularly cautious regarding the speed of the anticipated pick-up in volumes, first-half 2009 is clearly set to be extremely difficult.

Lagardere SCA dropped for a third session, losing 1.41 Euros, or 6.8%, to 19.21 Euros. Citigroup Inc. cut its recommendation on France's biggest media company to "sell" from "hold." The brokerage cited low visibility.

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world's largest luxury-goods maker, fell 91 cents, or 1.9%, to 48.39 Euros. Luxottica SpA, the world's biggest maker of eyeglasses, sank 8.1% in Milan after reporting a 60% drop in fourth-quarter profit and scrapping its dividend because of weaker demand for designer eyewear.

Societe Generale SA, France's third-biggest bank, rose 39.5 cents, or 1.7%, to 23.37 Euros, a fourth session of gains. "Societe Generale's risk-reward looks attractive for one of the most attractive Franchises in Europe, and we believe downside is limited at this point," JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Kian Abouhossein wrote in a note after trimming their price estimate on the stock to 30 Euros from 38.

Sodexo increased 1.59 Euros, or 4.6%, to 35.89 Euros, the highest in two weeks. The world's second- largest catering company was raised to "buy" at Bank of America Corp., which said "recent share-price weakness offers a buying opportunity."

BELGIUM

The Bel 20 in Brussels ended the week at 1,661.76, declines of 0.56% for Friday, but up on the week itself.

Brussels on Friday began an in-depth investigation into a proposed restructuring of ailing Belgian-French bank Dexia and its planned €6.4bn ($8.2bn) capital injection, to ensure that EU state aid rules are not being breached.

The move is the first in what will undoubtedly be a long list of lengthy bank probes by the European Commission, following the emergency help doled out by governments last autumn when financial turmoil was at its height.

At that stage, Brussels quickly approved government assistance to more than a dozen European banks as "rescue aid".

However, under European Union state aid rules, such rescue aid can only last for up to six months.

If it is to continue for longer than that, the country in question needs to come up with a restructuring plan for the institution that is being helped.

This must aim to return it to long-term viability within a reasonable timeframe, and include measures such as asset disposals to offset the competitive advantage resulting from the aid.

After heavy pressure from member states, Brussels agreed to relax these rules slightly, given the extreme circumstances.

It also said it would distinguish between aid going to "fundamentally sound" banks and aid given to ailing institutions.

In the former cases, governments would have to report back to the commission after six months but not file restructuring plans.

In Dexia's case, however, it was accepted in late November that a restructuring plan would be needed when the commission agreed to rescue aid, in the form of a state guarantee of up to €150bn from the Belgian, French and Luxembourg governments.

This has now been submitted, triggering the commission's in-depth probe.

This is a process that allows other interested parties to comment on the proposals and can take many months.

However, on Friday Brussels also approved in principle a guarantee from Belgium and France to cover Dexia's potential losses from its lossmaking US subsidiary FSA, although it reserved the right to look at this in greater detail during the investigation.

Existing aid measures will remain in place while the full probe is under way.

Dexia said Friday: "The EC is about to study Dexia's restructuring plan, which is normal since states are involved in supporting Dexia."

It added that the approval of the FSA guarantee "is good news".

The world's biggest lender to local councils made a loss of €3.3bn in 2008, with its problems stemming from more than €11bn of exposure to US residential mortgage-backed securities.

It is in the middle of a forced transformation under its new chief executive, Pierre Mariani, after the resignation last year of the bank's chairman and chief executive.

The changes involve cost cuts of 15% and a cutback in exposure to risky businesses.

Dexia agreed a sale of FSA, the insurance subsidiary behind most of its problems, to Assured Guaranty, the bond insurer in which Wilbur Ross, the US financier, is a large shareholder, for an enterprise value of $1.45bn in November.

THE NETHERLANDS

In Amsterdam, the AEX finished at 211.74, up 0.2%.

Shares in Dutch chemical and oil storage company Vopak Friday traded up to 8% higher after it reported a 17% rise in full-year net profit mainly on the back of higher sales and increased capacity, and provided upbeat guidance for 2009.

Chief Executive John Paul Broeders said in a statement that "despite uncertainties about economic developments we have confidence in the future" and therefore Vopak expects for 2009 a group operating profit before depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, of "at least Eur450 million, in line with the earlier indicated outlook."

Vopak provides storage and transshipment facilities for bulk liquids such as chemicals, oil products, and liquefied natural gas.

Broeders said there is still "considerable interest" in the storage of oil and biofuel products, although the picture for chemicals sector was "more mixed."

Earlier Friday, the Rotterdam-based company said 2008 net profit attributable to shareholders was Eur212 million, up 17% from Eur181.1 million in 2007.

Group operating profit for the year rose 10% to Eur322.2 million, while profit before exceptional items was Eur320.4 million.

Vopak reported full-year sales at Eur923.5 million, up 8% on the year from Eur853 million, due in part to increased capacity at existing terminals, development of new terminals and an increase in turnover per cubic meter of storage capacity.

Vopak's worldwide capacity in 2008 rose 24% to around Eur27 million cubic meters, mainly as a result of acquisitions and mergers. It expects to add an extra 2.5 million cubic meter in 2009 to 2011, from projects under construction that will involve a capital expenditure of about Eur1.5 billion.

Lehman Brothers Private Equity Partners, an Amsterdam-listed fund managed by Neuberger Berman, said on Friday it is changing its name to NB Private Equity Partners. It has also reserved a new ticker symbol on the Euronext exchange of "NBPE."

Neuberger Berman was the prized investment management division of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Neuberger reached a deal to be sold to its management last year.

SWITZERLAND

The SMI in Zurich rounded out the week by closing at 4,726.74, a gain of 1.74%.

The Swiss National Bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter point to a record low 0.25% to fight the recession triggered by the global economic crisis, and said the Swiss economy would shrink this year by more than previously thought.

It is the fifth rate cut by the Swiss bank since October, and comes a week after the European Central Bank cut its main rate to a record low 1.5%.

The central bank said it expects Switzerland's economic output will fall between 2.5% and 3% this year, with nearly all sectors of the Swiss economy negatively affected by the economic downturn.

The bank also said it would act to loosen monetary policy and prevent the Swiss Franc from appreciating too much in value.

The Swiss Franc slumped by a record amount against the Euro Thursday after the country's central bank confirmed it was intervening to stem the currency's sharp appreciation due to its status as a safe haven.

Genentech may have long been a subsidiary of Roche in accounting terms, but the US biotech group has until now guarded a fierce ­cultural independence from its Swiss majority shareholder.

More than nine months after an increasingly bitter takeover battle began, the ownership will become unambiguous following Genentech's acceptance of Roche's revised $95-a-share bid to acquire the 44% it does not currently own.

Swiss Life Holding AG climbed 11% to 61.1 Francs. Switzerland's biggest life insurer is in talks with Talanx AG over its stake in German financial services broker MLP AG.

Credit Suisse, Switzerland's second- largest, added 6.8% to 30.54 Swiss Francs.

AUSTRIA

In Vienna, the ATX finished the day and the week at 1,491.70, positive gains of 1.67% for the days' trading.

Austrian Airlines AG, which Germany's Deutsche Lufthansa AG is buying, reported the biggest full-year loss since its 1988 initial public offering as the worldwide financial crisis led to a decline in bookings.

The net loss was 429.5 million Euros ($554 million) compared with net income of 3.3 million Euros a year earlier, the Vienna- based carrier said in a statement Friday. The result was narrower than the company's forecast of a loss of as much as 475 million Euros. Sales fell 0.8% to 2.53 billion Euros.

Austrian Airlines is struggling as the global credit crisis and economic recession have stifled leisure and business travel. The International Air Transport Association said last month that the industry has "not yet seen the bottom" of the slump and forecast a $2.5 billion industry loss for 2009 after losses last year probably totaled $8 billion Euros.

Austrian Airlines rose 19 cents, or 5.4%, to 3.68 Euros in Vienna trading, its steepest increase in two weeks.

The airline said in November that it might report a full- year loss of as much as 475 million Euros on writedowns on aircraft, taxes and investments.

SWEDEN

In stockholm, the OMX 30 closed at 659.31, drops of 1.29% for Friday.

SAS Group surged 15% to 25.4 Kronor. The owner of Scandinavian Airlines said it will sell shares at an 88% discount after suffering the biggest loss in at least 16 years.

SAS had a 6.2 billion-krona ($720 million) full-year loss, the largest in at least 16 years, and is responding with plans to eliminate 9,000 jobs, drop routes and sell divisions. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's second-biggest airline, remains interested in SAS, though has no immediate plans for any acquisitions, a spokesman, said.

Car makers Saab and Volvo announced new cost cuts as the Detroit-owned units struggle for survival amid the global crisis in the auto industry.

Saab, which is owned by General Motors Corp., gave notice to 750 employees at its main production plant in Sweden, while Ford-owned Volvo said it would cut staff salaries to save 500 million Kronor ($57 million) in 2009.

Saab went into bankruptcy protection on 20 February in an effort by GM to spin off or sell the unit. The danger of a collapse still hovers over the ailing bRand because neither GM nor the Swedish government appears ready to provide enough money to keep it going as a freestanding entity.

While Volvo is better off, it too is struggling against a weak US Dollar and declining demand. Ford last year said it intends to spin off or sell the company.

DENMARK

The Copenhagen 20 Index finished the day at 224.15, very much flat with a narrow decline of 0.04% for the day.

Bulk and tanker shipper Torm gave an upbeat outlook for 2009 which lifted its shares as much as 15% on Wednesday after the firm reported a 55-percent fall in adjusted 2008 pretax profits.

Pretax profit fell to $360 million after market-value adjustments of assets, from $804 million in 2007, when the Danish firm's earnings were boosted by the sale of its stake in rival Norden. The result compared to the average estimate in a Reuters poll of analysts of $367 million.

FINLAND

The OMX Helsinki Index followed regional suit, closing out the day at 4,516.59, down 1.18%.

Finnish crane maker Konecranes Oyj withdrew proposals to its shareholders' meeting on Thursday concerning authorisation to repurchase and issue new shares, the company said.

The board abandoned its requests for authorisation to buy back up to 12 million of the company's shares and issue up to 18 million new shares because of opposition from some foreign shareholders, Konecranes said in a statement.

The annual general meeting approved the board's proposal to pay a dividend of 0.90 Euros per share for 2008 and elected its nominees to the board, the company said.

Finnish retailers Stockmann and Kesko posted on Friday sharp falls in February sales, hit by soft demand and weaker currencies.

Stockmann said total February sales fell by 18% to 132.9 million Euros ($171 million). Kesko's group sales slid 15% to 615 million, whacked by a sales drop of around one-third in its mainly Baltic operations.

Kesko said while sales at its core Food unit slipped only 1.5% year-on-year, sales at its struggling Rautakesko hardware unit tumbled 29%. Rautakesko sales both in Finland and abroad suffered sharply.

Finnish tyre maker Nokian Renkaat sees years of weak growth ahead, but is in a good position to weather the storm and benefit versus rivals, its Chief Executive said.

"I believe the global recession will be deep and relatively long. Growth is likely to remain weak for at least the next two years," CEO Kim Gran said in the firm's annual report released on Thursday.

"Nokian Tyres heads into the years of low growth from a good position. We have a strong balance sheet and good profitability. Our finances can endure the forecasted temporary drop in profitability," he said.

NORWAY

The OBX in Oslo ended at 189.81, the only Scandinavian bourse to post gains Friday, up 0.56% on the day.

Telenor, the Norwegian telecoms group, on Thursday claimed its Russian partner Alfa Group was attempting to "steal" its strategic stake in Vimpelcom, Russia's second-largest mobile operator, after a Siberian court froze its shares in the company.

Alfa Group, which is controlled by Mikhail Fridman, the Russian billionaire, denied any connection to the Vimpelcom case and claimed Telenor was trying to ensure the seizure of its telecoms assets via a ruling in a New york federal court that could see Alfa Group fined a total $12bn over the next year.

The rulings in Siberia and the US take the long running legal battle over Vimpelcom to a critical level while the freezing of Telenor's stake looks set to revive new fears about the safety of foreign investments in Russia, just as the country's battered stock market is starting to recover.

The decision to freeze Telenor's stake came after the company refused to pay a claim for $1.7bn ordered by the same court last month as part of a ruling in favour of Farimex, a minority shareholder in Vimpelcom. Farimex had accused the Norwegian group of delaying Vimpelcom's entry into the Ukrainian market.

The freezing of the shares effectively prevents Telenor from selling or transferring its stake. It owns 29.9% of voting stock in Vimpelcom and 33.6% of ordinary shares. Telenor said on Thursday, however, that the decision could lead to the stake being sold by the courts to cover the $1.7bn claim.

"This is a yet another escalation of the attempts to steal our Vimpelcom shares with the aid of Russian courts," Jan Edvard Thygesen, executive vice-president and head of Telenor's Central and East European operations, said in a statement.

A Telenor spokesman later said he doubted the stake would be sold off to cover the claim as "this would deal a serious blow to Russia's reputation on defending foreign investment."

Telenor is appealing the ruling which ordered the $1.7bn payment and will seek a stay on the freezing of the shares. It has claimed Alfa Group has links with Farimex, which Alfa Group has denied.

SPAIN

The Ibex closed the day at 7,427.80 - up 1.19%.

Spain's leading index rose as gains in heavily-weighted sectors included Financials and Telecom made up for larger percentage declines in Basic Materials and Healthcare sectors.

Financials rose 2.37% as optimism continues to remain high this week following positive comments from various banks regarding the strength of the industry in the first two months of the year.

Companies including insurer Mapfre and Banco Santander were among sector movers with respective gains of 4.58% and 3.14%. the large decline in Basic Materials can be attributed to a 5.12% fall in Gas Natural SDG and a 4.86% decline in builder ACS.

PORTUGAL

Lisbon's PSI General finished the week on 2,016.14, up 0.68%.

Portuguese construction firm Teixeira Duarte posted a 2008 net loss of 349.3 million Euros, pressured by a 390 million Euro drop in the value of its financial stakes in Millennium bcp (BCP.LS) and Cimpor (CPR.LS).

In 2007, Teixeira Duarte reported a net profit of 122.2 million Euros.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark S&P/MIB Index pared gains, losing 117, or 0.8%, at 13,804.

Autogrill SpA, the world's biggest manager of airport restaurants, rose 25.25 cents, or 6.8%, to 3.96 Euros, extending gains of 9.8% Thursday. Natixis Securities upgraded the stock to "add" from "reduce" and Berenberg lifted its recommendation to "buy" from "hold."

2008 results were "at top end of expectations and guidance," Bank of America Corp. analysts including Ian Rennardson wrote in a note. The brokerage, which kept a "buy" rating on the stock, said debt worries have been calmed.

Azimut Holding SpA, Italy's largest independent fund manager, gained 26.25 cents, or 7.4%, to 3.8 Euros.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, Italy's third-biggest bank, dropped 1.05 cents, or 1.2%, to 88.85 cents. UBS AG cut its price estimate on the stock to 1 Euro from 1.3 Euros. The brokerage lowered its price projections also on Banca Popolare di Milano Scrl (PMI IM), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP IM), Unione di Banche Italiane SCPA (UBI IM).

Intesa Sanpaolo and Unione di Banche Italiane SCPA were also downgraded to "neutral" from "overweight" at HSBC Holdings Plc.

Bulgari SpA, the world's third-largest jeweler, retreated for a third session, losing 5 cents, or 1.7%, to 2.93 Euros.

Buzzi Unicem SpA and Italcementi SpA (IT IM), Italy's largest cement makers, fell 3% to 6.79 Euros and 3.2% to 7.32 Euros, respectively.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for the global economy for the second time in eight days after predicting a deeper recession in Europe.

Enel SpA declined 26.25 cents, or 7.2%, to 3.37 Euros. UBS AG downgraded Italy's biggest utility to "neutral" from "buy." Kepler Capital Markets cut its recommendation to "reduce" from "buy," while Exane BNP Paribas and Natixis Securities lowered their price estimates on the stock.

Eni SpA, Italy's largest oil company, rose 24 cents, or 1.8%, to 13.8 Euros as OPEC prepares to meet this weekend to consider a cut in output.

Saipem SpA, Europe's largest oil-field services contractor by market value, gained 52 cents, or 4.4%, to 12.23 Euros.

Tenaris SA, the world's biggest maker of seamless steel tubes for pipelines, rose for a fifth day, adding 21 cents, or 3.1%, to 7.07 Euros.

Finmeccanica SpA, Italy's biggest defense company, fell 38.5 cents, or 4.2%, to 8.74 Euros. UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking cut its price estimate on the stock to 11.5 Euros from 14.5 Euros, taking "a more cautious approach in terms of Ebitda margin." The brokerage kept a "buy" rating.

Lottomatica SpA declined 43 cents, or 3.3%, to 12.46 Euros. Citigroup Inc. lowered its price estimate on the manager of Italy's national lottery to 11.5 Euros from 16.54 Euros. The brokerage kept a "sell" recommendation. The brokerage said "Lottomatica needs to spend more time on efficiencies and integration."

Luxottica SpA fell the most since Oct 24, losing 90 cents, or 8.1%, to 10.15 Euros. The world's biggest maker of eyeglasses said profit fell 60% in the fourth quarter because of weaker demand for designer eyewear.

Nomura International Plc maintained its "reduce" recommendation. The brokerage said the lack of a dividend on 2008 earnings was not expected by the market. Citigroup Inc. kept a "hold" rating.

Pirelli & C. SpA rose 0.35 cents, or 2.2%, to 16.5 cents. Mediobanca Securities suggested closing short positions on the stock and lifted its recommendation on Europe's third-largest tiremaker to "neutral" from "underperform."

Telecom Italia SpA gained 1.1 cents, or 1.3%, to 88.15 cents, after increasing 5.8% Thursday. Cheuvreux upgraded Italy's biggest phone company to "underperform" from "sell."

The brokerage said "the risk of material erosion of the liquidity margin is now over." The company priced Thursday 1.5 billion Euros of bonds due in four and seven years.

UniCredit SpA lost 1.8 cents, or 1.9%, to 91.25 cents. Italy's largest bank by assets had its price estimate cut to 1 Euro from 1.4 Euros at Cheuvreux, which said "UniCredit's outlook and value are affected by the limited recognition of the real amount of risky assets." The brokerage, which reiterated an "underperform" recommendation, also trimmed its price estimate on Intesa Sanpaolo while keeping an "outperform" rating.

GREECE

In Athens, the appropriately named Athex closed out the week at 1,557.77, a rise of 0.24%.

Greek lenders have used up so far about a third of a 28 billion Euro ($35.74 billion) bank support scheme designed to boost liquidity in the economy, the country's economy ministry said on Wednesday.

The plan includes capital injections via the sale of preferred shares to the state, guarantees on bank debt and liquidity support through special government bonds.

The ministry said in an emailed statement lenders qualified for 3.8 billion Euros in government-held preferred shares, 1 billion Euros in state-backed debt guarantees and 4.4 billion Euros in special bonds -- a total of 9.2 billion Euros.

Applications came from all of Greece's major banks including the National Bank of Greece, the country's largest lender, Alpha Bank, Eurobank, and Piraeus Bank.

Greece's biggest lenders expanded in the Balkans in the last decade and the global downturn has left them exposed to difficult economic conditions in south-eastern Europe.

Like in many other countries, the Greek conservative government is seeking to shore up banks' capital and liquidity at a time of shrinking profits and rising loan delinquencies.

The government's package sets a ceiling of 15 billion Euros for guarantees on debt while foreseeing up to 5 billion Euros in capital injections and as much as 8 billion Euros in government bonds.

Banks have until December to apply for the aid. Lenders will pay a 10% dividend to the state on the preferred shares. The government will be represented on bank boards and will have veto powers on payout policy and executive pay.

Greek Economy Minister Yiannis Papathanassiou urged banks to step up lending in order to support the country's slowing economy. Greece aims to keep credit expansion at above 10% this year.

"Banks must accelerate financing to households and businesses," Papathanassiou was quoted as saying in the statement from the ministry.

Greek economic growth eased to an annual 2.4% rate in the fourth quarter, its slowest pace since the country joined the Euro in 2001, figures showed earlier on Wednesday.

The National Bank of Greece has already received shareholder approval to sell the government 350 million Euros in preferred stock under the scheme.

The lender is also considering asking the state to guarantee about 500 million Euros worth of debt, NBG's Chief Financial Officer Anthimos Thomopoulos told Reuters on Wednesday.

"We're aligning ourselves with all the major Greek banks," Thomopoulos said.

Data from the ministry showed both Alpha Bank and Eurobank had each asked for guarantees on debt worth 500 million Euros.

Greek shipowners increased the tonnage under their control during the last 12 months, but the Greek flag appears to be suffering under the impact of the financial and freights crisis.

According to an annual survey conducted for the Greek Shipping Co-operation Committee, Greeks now control 4,161 vessels of more than 1,000 gt, aggregating 263.6m dwt.

This represents a decrease of 12 vessels, but an increase of about 1% in tonnage, in the year to end-February.

Although the study, based on Lloyd's Register database statistics, reaffirmed that the Greek controlled fleet remains the largest globally, its share of world capacity fell slightly to 15.2%, from 16.4% at the same stage of 2008.

Greeks are particularly dominant in the international bulk trades, both wet and dry.

Last year's fleet growth stemmed predominantly from investment in the crude carrier segment where there was a net increase of eight tankers and 3.4m dwt.

Greeks also grew their fleets in the gas carrier and ore and bulk carrier sectors, but for the first time in many years the Greek controlled portion of world dry bulk capacity sank below 20% to 19.1%.

One of the findings likely to cause most concern in the GSCC-commissioned survey, which has provided a snapshot of Greek shipping for the last 22 years, is that the home registry has fared poorly in recent months.

This is despite the fact that little more than a year ago the Union of Greek shipowners voiced high hopes that 2008 would see an increasing wave of vessels returning to the flag in response to a government package that relaxed national manning quotas, with a presumed improvement in the cost structure.

Instead, the Greek flag fleet has begun to decline again, losing a net 76 ships of 4.3m dwt in the last 12 months.
  
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsThe financial stocks led the FTSE 100 to its highest level in a fortnight, with the index up 1.1%, or 41.62 points, to 3,753.68.

It showed a 6.3% gain for the week, which was its biggest advance since the turn of the year.

Barclays rose 3.1% to 74.1p on Friday amid renewed speculation about its options to pay for participating in the government's asset insurance scheme.

Barclays Global Investors was once again rumoured as a potential disposal, along with Barclaycard and the emerging markets unit.

Credit Suisse, Barclays' house broker, said the market was likely to welcome any means the bank finds of avoiding a share issue, as this route would dilute book value per share by about half. The options under consideration, it said, should also include a B stock subscription to government.

Friends Provident was weakest among the insurers. The stock lost 5.5% to 68.3p amid expectations of a dividend cut at its preliminary results next week.

Real estate stocks recovered some of their recent underperformance after Hammerson helped ease concerns in an upbeat presentation to Nomura's sales team.

The Hammerson directors talked of a slow recovery, but said activity in the UK market had increased lately. There were some signs of reaching a market bottom for top quality assets providing the leases were long enough, they said.

Hammerson was up 3.6% to 245½p. Land Securities bounced 8.7% to 370½p and British Land rose 7.2% to 334p.

Xstrata rose 10.3% to 360p as Deutsche Bank restarted coverage with "buy" advice. The stock's discount to the sector is not justified, its rights issue makes a covenant breach unlikely and key shareholder Glencore looks to be well funded, Deutsche said.

Thomas Cook rallied 4.6% to 212¾p as analysts played down the relevance of comments from one of its executives. The stock dived 11% on Friday after the head of its German business talked of a poor start to the year, but house broker Citigroup said the interview added nothing to Thomas Cook's last trading update.

Halfords was 0.9% weaker at 276p in spite of a bid rumour doing the rounds. The interest was said to come from Japan -- even though Tokyo peer Autobacs Seven sold down its Halfords stake last year as part of a rationalisation.

Talk of stakebuilding helped Rank Group rise 4.6% to 67¾p. About 6m shares changed hands in three parcels, with Investec doing the business.

Goldman Sachs added United Business Media to its "conviction buy" list, sending the publisher up 2.9% to 430p. "With stringent cost management, strong cash conversion and global positions in its portfolio of assets, we believe it is well placed to weather the current economic climate," Goldman told clients.

Yell was the sharpest mid-cap faller, off 10% to 13½p after two of its US rivals hit trouble. Idearc said it was considering bankruptcy, while RH Donnelley brought in advisers to reshape debt.

WPP lagged behind the market rally on Friday after Morgan Stanley said advertising budgets were falling much faster than expected.

"Each day brings fresh evidence of a sharp and profound deterioration," said the broker. "A recovery before 2010 appears highly unlikely."

The broker also cast doubt on WPP's perception as defensive because of its focus on marketing services, digital and emerging markets. These three areas are currently underperforming the more cyclical advertising businesses, it said.
  
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Japan's stocks rose, giving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average its biggest gain this year, on optimism the government will buy shares and as a better-than-expected US retail sales report eased concern of a deepening global slowdown.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's No. 1 listed bank, gained 5.8% after the Nikkei newspaper said the government is considering purchasing equities to prop up share prices. Inpex Corp., Japan's biggest oil explorer, climbed 3.7% after crude surged Thursday. Olympus Corp., a maker of digital cameras and endoscopes, surged 8.8% as US retail sales in February fell less than economists estimated.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average soared 371.03, or 5.2%, to 7,569.28 at the close of trading in Tokyo, the sharpest jump since 15 December. The broader Topix index added 23.37, or 3.3%, to 724.30, after slumping to the lowest level since December 1983 Thursday. For the week, the Nikkei had a 5.5% jump, the best since the period ended 28 November 2008. The Topix advanced 0.4%.

Japan's government is considering using zero-coupon bonds to finance exchange-traded fund purchases as it works to shore up the stock market, the Nikkei newspaper reported. The move would allow retail investors to convert the bonds into stocks should the market rise, the report said. The Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, proposed the ETF scheme on March 9.

Separately, Prime Minister Taro Aso ordered a third spending plan aimed at easing the country's recession. Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said the government will also inject 121 billion Yen into three regional banks and discuss ways to support the stock market.

Mitsubishi UFJ jumped 5.8% to 419 Yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Japan's No. 3 bank by assets, added 6.3% to 2,850 Yen. Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. soared 13% to 314 Yen.

Olympus rose 8.8% to 1,442 Yen. Pioneer Corp., Japan's No. 3 audio-visual equipment maker, advanced 8.1% to 94 Yen. Honda Motor Co., Japan's second-largest automaker, added 7.5% to 2,220 Yen.

Inpex added 3.7% to 675,000 Yen. Trading company Mitsubishi Corp., which generates more than half of its profit from commodities, rose 3.7% to 1,147 Yen.

Sony Corp. climbed 9.1% to 1,893 Yen, while Seiko Epson Corp. jumped 8.5% to 1,212 Yen. Sony, the world's No. 2 maker of consumer electronics will buy equipment for manufacturing liquid-crystal displays from Seiko Epson as part of an alliance, the companies said Thursday.

Ubiquitous Energy Inc., which specializes in "esco" projects designed to save companies money by boosting the energy efficiency of buildings and factories, nearly doubled on its trading debut to 1,801 Yen. It was Japan's second new listing this year.

Resona Holdings Inc., the nation's No. 4 listed bank, slumped 4.9% to 1,365 Yen. KBC Securities Japan, downgraded the stock to "sell" from "hold," citing the recent jump in the shares due to a stock buyback program.

SOUTH KOREA

Seoul shares ended slightly lower after volatile trade on Friday, with technology issues including LG Elec and Hynix Semiconductor rallying, but losses by banks and crude refiners weighing on the index.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index finished down 0.21% at 1,126.03 points, snapping four consecutive gaining sessions.

South Korea's central bank froze its key interest rate on Thursday after six consecutive rate cuts, in a bid to gauge the effects of those reductions on the economy and leave room to brace for a deeper economic downturn, Yonhap News Agency reported.

In a monthly policy meeting, the Bank of Korea (BOK) left the benchmark seven-day repo rate unchanged at a record low of 2% for March. Between October and February, the BOK trimmed the rate by 3.25 percentage points.

The central bank said it will focus its future monetary policy on heading off a severe economic slump and stabilizing the financial markets.

South Korea will create a 40 trillion Won ($26.8 billion) fund to buy distressed corporate bonds and assets from financial companies as part of government efforts to head off a looming recession.

Korea Asset Management Corp., or Kamco as the state-run distressed asset specialist is also known, will manage the fund until it is wound up at the end of 2014, the Financial Services Commission said in an e-mailed statement Friday.

Asia's fourth-largest economy contracted 3.4% last quarter, the first decline in 11 years, and bank profits almost halved last year on provisions for loans to struggling developers and shipbuilders. South Korea lost 103,000 jobs in January, the biggest decline since September 2003, as industrial production plunged a record 25.6%.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong shares surged by more than 4% Friday on the back of a strong overnight performance on Wall Street, ending another roller-coaster week up by 600 points. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index gained 524.27 points or 4.37% to close the week at 12,528.8. Turnover was 43.9 billion Hong Kong Dollars (5.66 billion US Dollars.)

The index started the week at 11,921 and fell 5% in Monday, trading to a low of 11,344 when a massive last-minute sell-off of shares in banking giant HSBC dragged priced down.

HSBC shares have since recovered strongly and gained 5% Friday to close at 38.05 Hong Kong Dollars. Shares in the Hang Seng Bank were up nearly 6% and Bank of China shares up 2.2%.

The China Enterprises Index of top mainland firms was 4.3% higher at 7,261.93.

Hong Kong's stock exchange scrapped an end-of-day trading system after a 24% plunge by HSBC Holdings Plc, adding to a series of policy changes that critics say have damaged the city's standing as a financial center.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., operator of Asia's third-biggest stock market, will suspend the closing-auction session on March 23 because of "volatility," Paul Chow, the bourse's chief executive officer said Thursday. Last month, the exchange watered down new regulations governing share trading by corporate executives after the city's tycoons, including billionaire Li Ka-shing, voiced concerns.

CHINA

China's main stock index edged down on Friday, again underperforming regional markets, as investors fretted about mixed economic data and the likelihood of weak corporate earnings for the first quarter.

The Shanghai Composite Index hit a high of 2,166.022 points in the morning but closed 0.24% lower at 2,128.848 points. Turnover was near a seven-week low.

Turnover in Shanghai A shares was 70.9 billion RMB ($10.4 billion), near a seven-week low, against Thursday's 70.7 billion. Losing Shanghai A shares outnumbered gainers by 646 to 278.

In a speech marking the end of the annual session of parliament, Premier Wen Jiabao expressed confidence in an economic recovery and said China could launch new economic stimulus policies at any time. But he did not announce immediate, fresh steps to aid the economy.

That left investors worrying about this week's economic data; money supply growth, bank loans and fixed asset investment were strong, fuelling hopes for an early recovery, but exports and industrial investment slumped more steeply than expected, raising doubts about the strength and sustainability of the recovery.

Bank shares were mixed, narrowing or even erasing their premiums to Hong Kong-listed H shares. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China's A shares were flat at 3.68 RMB while its H shares gained 4.70% to HK$3.34.

The average premium of A shares over H shares in the same companies dropped sharply from above 60% this week, but it remains uncomfortably high for some investors at 46%.

Shares related to the southern Chinese sity of Zhuhai surged after Wen said financing issues involving construction of a huge bridge linking Hong Kong, Macau and Zhuhai had been resolved, and that work would start this year. Previously, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang had said construction would start in 2010.

Guandong Shirong Zhaoye, a Zhuhai property firm, soared its 10% daily limit to 7.85 RMB.

CITIC Securities slipped 1.71% to 21.30 RMB after saying China Life Insurance Co and China Life's parent company had cut their combined stake in the brokerage to 12.32% from 17.32%.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stocks rose 3% on Friday to a four-month closing high on a strong rise in global markets, with AU jumping after a report the LCD maker's capacity utilisation rate could increase by the second quarter.

The tourism sub-index jumped 6.3% after China's Premier Wen Jiabao said he wanted to visit Taiwan.

Shares of AU Optronics, Taiwan's top flat panel maker, jumped by their 7% daily limit after a local newspaper reported the firm's capacity utilisation rate could rise to over 90% by the second quarter on a slew of rush orders.

AU's smaller rival Chi Mei rose 3.7% and the electronics sub-index added 2.9%.

The main TAIEX share index finished up 142.7 points at 4,897.4, its highest close since Nov. 5. Turnover rose to a seven-month high of T$125.0 billion ($3.6 billion), up from Thursday's T$84.4 billion.

The financial sub-index rose 4%, helped by gains in Asian financial stocks. Cathay Financial, Taiwan's top listed financial holding firm, gained 4.8%. The company said late on Thursday it could raise its investments in equities and real estate to help boost returns.

However, DRAM shares were mixed after a newspaper reported Taiwan Memory Co (TMC) is leaning towards using Elpida's technology and ProMOS' production capability as the company begins to take shape.

Shares of ProMOS lost 6.2%, while larger rival Nanya Tech gained 2.9%.

Shares of Powerchip, Taiwan's top DRAM maker, rose 5.1% after it said it was not expecting significant government help for local DRAM makers, and was in talks with Japan's Elpida on a possible merger or other tie-up.

Smartphone maker HTC ended limit-up after a newspaper said the firm would likely launch its new product "HTC Maple" next month.

The tourism sub-index rose 6.3%, buoyed by China Premier Wen Jiabao's comment on Friday.

Tourism shares also rallied ahead of a record-sized group of 12,000 Amway workers from China scheduled to arrive at Taipei on Monday for a three-day visit.

Shares of hotel operators Ambassador Hotel and Leofoo Development Co both surged by their daily 7% limit.

THE PHILIPPINES

The bellwether for the country's stocks fell on last-minute blue chip selling Friday.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index fell 23.57 points, or 1.25%, to 1,856.10.

The drag mainly came from telco giant, Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT), which fell P125 pesos ($2.58) or 5.51% to P2,145 ($44.32).

Foreign hands were seen unloading the stock with a net selling of P112.333 million ($2.32 million).

On the other hand, PLDT subsidiary Pilipino Telephone Co. was up P0.60 (1.24 US cents) or eight% to P7.40 (15.29 US cents).

It posted a net foreign buying of P112.977 million ($2.33 million).

The general market was just slightly down with the All Shares index shedding 1.63 points, or 0.14% to 1,196.66.

Advancers outnumbered decliners by 55 to 21, while 42 stocks closed unchanged.

Around 1.27 billion shares worth P2.26 billion ($46.70 million) were traded.

SINGAPORE

Singapore's retail sales plunged in January as shoppers turned away from big-ticket items amid the city-state's worst recession in decades.

Retail sales fell 12% in January from a year earlier - accelerating from a 1.6% fall in December - the statistics department said.

Singapore's gross domestic product plunged a seasonally adjusted, annualized 16.4% in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter - the country's worst contraction since splitting from Malaysia in 1965 - as a collapse in demand from the US, Europe and Japan hit the nation's exports.

Singapore's main stock measure, the STI, vaulted 5.6% Friday to close at 1577.52.

Singapore's Straits Times Index closed at its highest level since 27 February, with DBS Group, United Overseas Bank and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp each up more than 7%.

MALAYSIA

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia closed higher Friday with investors buying into both heavyweights and lower liners following overnight gains on Wall Street, dealers said.

At close, the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) rose 5.06 points or 0.604% to 843.45 after opening 5.45 points higher at 843.84 from Thursday's close of 838.39.

According to the dealers, the rally on regional markets as well as gains on US stocks after the release of better retail sales data as well as merger and acquisition activities in the biotech sector pushed up the local market.

The Dow Jones gained 239.66 points to 7,170.06, the S&P 500 climbed 29.38 points to 750.74 and the Nasdaq added 54.46 points to 1,426.10.

One of the dealers said that there were some active bargain-hunting activities in the market which helped to increase overall gains following the market losses over three consecutive days.

"Buying interest was seen in blue chips since the early session amid positive market sentiment," he said.

The key index traded between the 841.7 and 847.04 points level throughout the day.

At close, the Emas Index rose 31.97 points to 5,473.82 and the Second Board Index increased 19.67 points to 3,813.22.

The Industrial Index gained 6.34 points to 2,042.61 and the Finance Index added 5.04 points to 6,141.01 but the Mesdaq Index lost 3.96 points to 2,917.47.

Gainers led losers by 263 to 199 while 228 counters traded unchanged, 554 untraded and 31 others suspended.

Volume, however, declined to 301.097 million shares valued at RM487.042 million from Thursday's 352.129 million shares worth RM584.880 million.

An analyst said that investors were also encouraged by news of the government setting up a technical committee to monitor implementation of the RM60 billion mini budget announced on Tuesday.

The committee is scheduled to meet weekly to study the implementation of projects.

At close, volume on the Main Board decreased to 259.213 million shares worth RM478.889 million from Thursday's close of 308.942 million shares valued at RM576.654 million.

Turnover on the Second Board dropped to 17.331 million shares worth RM4.419 million from 19.360 million shares valued at RM4.593 million previously.

Volume on the Mesdaq Market, however, rose to 13.731 million shares valued at RM2.737 million from 11.314 million shares worth RM2.950 million Thursday.

Warrants declined to 10.112 million shares worth RM611,628 from 11.874 million shares valued at RM550,115 previously.

For the actives, KNM and Resorts were up a sen each at 33 sen and RM1.93 respectively and LCL rose 4.5 sen to 38 sen after its unit secured RM103.4 million worth of jobs for a marina project in Singapore.

Among the heavyweights, Sime Darby and MISC added five sen each to be at RM5.40 and RM8.35 respectively and Tenaga Nasional advanced 10 sen to RM6.15 while Bumiputra-Commerce was flat at RM6.20.

INDONESIA

The Composite Index ended the day down 0.3%.

The Composite lost 4.1 points to 1,310.41.

Banking shares led the downward trend, but one dealer said that a "weaker Rupiah and falls in several Asian markets also inspired selling."

THAILAND

Thailand's benchmark stock index was up 0.15% at 415.04 in thin turnover of 6.65 billion Baht ($185 million) at 0735 GMT on Friday.

Broker BFIT, which surged nearly 17% to 1.44 Baht by midmorning, was halted along with UOB Kay Hian Securities, a Thai unit of Singapore's UOB Kay Hian Holdings Ltd.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) said it had ordered the trading halt for both shares after they told the exchange their senior management had again discussed a possible merger.

'The SET has temporarily halted trading in the companies' securities, effective from the afternoon trading session of March 13, 2009, until the companies have clarified or disclosed this material information,' it said.

On 2 March, after previous talks, BFIT and UOB said they had failed to reach an agreement on a shareholding structure.

Energy shares rose 4.38%, with Thailand's top energy firm PTT Plc unchanged at 144.00 Baht, coming off a near 2-week high of 152 Baht, PTT Exploration and Production gained 5.5% to 96 Baht and top refiner Thai Oil edged up 3.8% to 24.80 Baht.

Top coal miner Banpu added almost 3% to 208 Baht and PTT Aromatics and Refining was 2.3% higher at 8.80 Baht.

Miner Lanna rose 2.7% to 5.70 Baht after hitting a one-week high 5.75 Baht. The firm said it had given an 84 million Baht loan without guarantee to its Indonesian PT Lanna Mining Services subsidiary to invest in the development of its third coal mine in Indonesia.

It is expected to start coal production in the second quarter of this year.

INDIA

The Bombay Stock-Exchange sensitive index registered a highest gain in the current calendar year on Friday and closed higher by 412.86 points, on the back of all-round buying triggered by stronger global cues despite sustained capital outflows.

The Sensex opened firm and remained in the positive terrain throughout the session and closed at 8756.61 against 8343.75 on Thursday. Earlier, the Sensex had gained by 492.28 points or 5.37% on December 10, 2008. The 50-share Nifty of the National Stock Exchange also improved further by 101.80 points or 3.89% to 2719.25.

Contrary to market sentiment, foreign institutional investors sold shares worth Rs. 186.86 crore while domestic funds pumped in Rs. 227.10 crore on March 12, as per provisional figures.

The fall in inflation rate for the sixth consecutive week to 2.43%, the lowest in nearly seven years, also partly boosted sentiment.

In the Sensex pack, DLF spurted by 11.47%, Tata Motors by 10.72%, Tata Power by 9.18%, ICICI Bank by 8.60%, Hindalco by 7.99%, Sterlite Industries by 7.93%, HDFC by 7.53%, Tata Steel by 6.89%, L&T by 6.76%, Reliance Industries by 6.69%, and TCS by 6.57%.

Jaiprakash Associates rose by 6.22%, Reliance Communication by 6.18% and Grasim by 6.05%.

The market breadth was positive as 1,583 counters registered gains while 854 ended with losses on the BSE.

The business volume improved further to Rs. 3,230.11 crore from Rs. 2,726.77 crore on Thursday. ICICI Bank was the top-traded share with the highest turnover of Rs. 253.55 crore.

AUSTRALIA

Australian shares have surged after another good session on Wall Street overnight, after figures showed retail sales in the US fell only slightly last month.

Banking stocks pushed the All Ordinaries index up 104 points to 3,295 and the ASX 200 added 3.4% to 3,245.

National Australia Bank climbed more than 6% to $17.78.

Airline Virgin Blue surged more than 6% to 17.5 cents after saying it expected full-year operating profit to remain within 15% of its previous guidance.

Telstra closed down nearly 3% at $3.06 cents.

Australia's second largest investment bank, Babcock & Brown, has gone into administration after it was unable to deal with its massive debt levels.

The former private equity powerhouse, had struggled for more than a year.

Babcock's downfall was blamed on taking on too much debt - and then being unable to cope in the credit crunch.

At its peak, shares were worth 37 Australian Dollars (£17.40; US$24.20) but when suspended about three months ago, were worth just 32.5 cents.

Efforts to avoid administration failed when a group of shareholders rejected a proposed debt restructuring, with Deloitte being appointed as administrators.

Like with Chapter 11 bankruptcy laws in the US, firms entering voluntary administration in Australia can attempt to trade out of financial difficulties.

But administrator David Lombe told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that it was too early to say whether Babcock could avoid collapse.

While administrators will run the company on behalf of creditors, Babcock said that it would focus on "ensuring that the value of assets and business platforms is preserved during this process and all assets and businesses continue to be managed appropriately".

Its satellite investment funds, Babcock & Brown Infrastructure - which owns UK port firm PD Ports - said it was unaffected by the administration.

Babcock had been hailed a success, likened to a mini-version of Australia's most dominant investment bank Macquarie.

Last November, Macquarie announced a sharp fall in profits but said it did not need to raise cash.

NEW ZEALAND

The New Zealand share market gained along with a rising United States stock market.

The benchmark NZX-50 index closed up 31.77 points, or 1.275%, at 2523.394. Turnover was worth $80.90 million. There were 68 rises and 22 falls.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare was down 5c to 332 and it is a company with a lot of offshore earnings.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances was down 1c to 51 and late in the session it announced it had secured a temporary bank facility.

Rakon, which was queried by NZX this month, rose 18c to 115 but Mr Lindsay said the stock is still well off its peak above $5 in 2007.

The Warehouse rose 5c to 350 after reporting a well-signalled interim profit result this week.

Telecom eased 1c to 234 and accounted for about a third of the market turnover.

SkyTV was down 1c to 380 and Tower eased 4c to 130. Goodman Property eased 2c to 123.

Guinness Peat rose 6c to 73, Methven rose 7c to 107 and NZX rose 38c to 600.

Mainfreight rose 16c to 368 and Nuplex rose 4c to 107.

Fletcher Building rose 14c to 545. Contact rose 7c to 567 on a day many state owned energy companies reported profits.

Pike River Coal rose 5c to 80 as investors continue to contemplate coal price forecasts and the company's capital raising plans.

Port of Tauranga rose 9c to 525. SkyCity rose 11c to 277.

New Zealand's retail sales fell for the third time in four months in January, led by car and fuel sales, as a deepening recession and rising unemployment curbed consumer confidence.

Retail sales dropped 1.1% from December when they fell a revised 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington Friday. The median expectation was for a 0.1% decline. From a year ago, unadjusted sales decreased 3.7%.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said Thursday the economy is in its fifth quarter of contraction and probably Won't start growing until the third quarter of this year, making the recession the worst in 32 years. Companies are firing workers, causing sales to slow at retailers such as Warehouse Group Ltd., the nation's biggest discount seller.

New Zealand's jobless rate was at a five-year high of 4.6% in the fourth quarter. Bollard forecast Thursday that it will rise to 6.8%, the highest since 1999, by early 2010. Eaqub says the rate will rise to 7.6%.

Core retail sales, which exclude cars, fuel and workshops, increased for the third time in four months, gaining 0.3% from December when they fell 0.7%.

Car sales tumbled 11% amid declining prices and falling registrations of new vehicles. From a year earlier, car sales plunged 25%, the statistics agency said, citing unadjusted figures.

Fuel sales fell for a fourth month, dropping 2.6% from December. Sales declined even as gasoline prices rose in the month, the agency said. The monthly sales series isn't adjusted to exclude price movements.

Retail sales dropped in 13 of the 24 store categories measured in the report, the statistics agency said.

Department store sales fell 2.7%. Purchases from furniture and appliance stores, bars, clubs and restaurants also declined.

Supermarket and grocery sales, which make up one-fifth of all retailing, gained 1.7%. Spending at accommodation outlets and on recreational items including books, toys and sports equipment also increased, the agency said.
  
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesOil prices, after a volatile week, steadied on Friday before an Opec meeting this weekend while gold consolidated above $900 an ounce as analysts pondered the implications of the Swiss National Bank's decision to intervene over the Franc.

ICE April Brent rose 36 cents at $45.45 a barrel, up 1.3% this week, while Nymex April West Texas Intermediate dipped 3 cents to $47 a barrel, gaining 3.2% this week.

The approach to the Opec meeting has produced mixed signals over whether further supply cuts will be agreed but the cartel's dominant position in the global energy market was underlined by a monthly report from the International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog of the developed world.

It said non-Opec supply would increase by just 560,000 barrels a day this year, partly due to production problems in Azerbaijan.

The IEA noted that Opec had cut oil supplies significantly, removing 3.3m b/d from the market and thereby achieving almost 80% compliance with the 4.2m b/d cut that the cartel had previously agreed.

The IEA warned against a "one-eyed view" of the oil market that focused solely on demand weakness and said that the supply response to lower prices was being intensified by a credit squeeze, affecting investment in new productive capacity and operational spending among cash-strapped companies.

Gold added 0.2% to $928.20 a troy ounce Friday as its appeal as a haven in turbulent times was boosted by the Swiss National Bank's intervention to weaken the Franc, which sparked fears that the global financial crisis might enter a new phase involving a currency war.

Over the week, gold fell 0.9% but a resumption of inflows into exchange traded funds bolstered sentiment.

The most significant factor for the precious market this year is that long-term, stable funds have been entering ETFs in a systemic way and Hedge Funds have been taking large positions in Gold recently.

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, has risen 33% this year to a record 1,041.53 metric tons. Since the second quarter of 2007, banks worldwide have posted more than $1.2 trillion in credit losses and writedowns. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has dropped 17% this year while gold has gained 5.2%.

Silver futures for May delivery climbed 27.2 cents, or 2.1%, to $13.215 an ounce. While the price fell 0.9% this week, it is still up 17% this year.

Copper rose, ending a two-day losing streak, on speculation that declines in global stockpiles signal demand may be stabilizing for the industrial metal.

Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange slid 1.3% to a five-week low of 497,625 metric tons Friday. LME supplies are down 9.3% from a five-year high on Feb. 25. Stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 9.7% this week, to 34,735 tons. Copper is up 18% this year on speculation that demand will rebound.

Wheat fell on speculation that inventories in the US, the largest exporter of the grain, will rise more than expected after farmers boosted output and shipments slowed.

US wheat inventories will probably total 712 million bushels in the year ending May 31, the US Department of Agriculture said on March 11. That was up from last month's forecast of 655 million bushels and more than double the total held a year earlier. Prices are down 58% in the past year.

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 6.75 cents, or 1.3%, to $5.1825 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price fell 1.7% this week.

Corn rose, capping the biggest weekly gain this year, and soybeans declined after private forecasters predicted US farmers will plant more soybeans than corn for the first time.

A record 81.502 million acres of soybeans will be planted this year, up 7.6% from 2008, Memphis, Tennessee-based Informa Economics said Friday in a report to clients. Corn will be planted on 81.419 million acres, down 5.3% from 85.982 million in 2008, the company said. The US is the world's biggest grower and exporter of corn and soybeans.

Corn futures for May delivery rose 3.25 cents, or 0.8%, to $3.885 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, capping a 7.5% weekly gain. Still, corn is down 51% since reaching a record $7.9925 in June.
  
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets A Swiss National Bank decision this week to weaken the Swiss Franc has raised fears that other central banks will follow suit in a wave of currency devaluations.

Since the financial crisis began two years ago, currency intervention from a major central bank had been seen as unlikely because foreign exchange moves were too low a priority to merit attention, much less a consensus among global policymakers.

The SNB, faced with the prospect of deflation, said on Thursday the Swiss Franc's strength was an "inappropriate tightening" of monetary conditions. The SNB said it intervened to prevent any further appreciation.

The Swiss Franc, which had been approaching its record high against the Euro of about SFr1.43, set in October, was sold off sharply after the announcement. It fell 3.6% against the Euro and 2.9% against the Dollar.

With interest rates already near zero, currency policy has become a tool for the Swiss authorities to fight the global economic slowdown.

With Japan facing deflation risks at least on the same scale as Switzerland, it is unsurprising to see market participants now focusing on the Bank of Japan.

Like the Swiss Franc, the Yen has rallied sharply: the Japanese currency has risen 8% against the Dollar since Lehman Brothers collapsed in September.

Both Switzerland and Japan are export-driven economies sensitive to the exchange rate. Their currencies were also widely used before the financial crisis as funding currencies in the global carry trade, in which low-yielding currencies were sold to finance the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

As the financial crisis deepened and investors scrambled to unwind carry trades, both the Yen and the Swiss Franc were driven sharply higher.

Analysts believe that the SNB's action adds to pressure for Japan to resume more aggressive quantitative easing. But they said this was likely to focus on BoJ purchases of domestic assets, rather than foreign exchange intervention.

The fact that Japan, unlike Switzerland, is a member of the G20 diminishes the likelihood of intervention. Kaoru Yosano, Japan's finance minister, told the Financial Times this week that it would not intervene in the markets unless such a move received international approval. Domestic pressure on Tokyo to intervene has lessened as the Yen has sold off sharply after hitting a 13-year high against the Dollar in January.

The Swiss National Bank's decision to intervene in the currency markets and to lower interest rates will be welcomed in central and eastern Europe, where many investors have borrowed heavily in the Swiss Franc.

One of the pressures on the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint, which last month fell to multi-year lows, derived from a serious currency mismatch as many mortgages in recent years were denominated in Swiss Francs.

In Hungary and Poland, foreign-exchange-linked housing loans are equivalent to more than 7% of gross domestic product. Seventy% of the stock of those FX-linked mortgages are denominated in Swiss Francs.

Many investors in eastern Europe had to service debt in Swiss Francs with crumbling local currencies, as a boycott of foreign capital due to the global recession and banking crisis cut off foreign currency funding.

A weaker Swiss Franc or a stronger Hungarian forint or Polish zloty benefits households in both countries. As the Swiss Franc fell against the Euro after the SNB's decision on Thursday, the Forint and the Zloty rallied.

The Yen fell against most of its major counterparts and posted a fourth weekly decline versus the Euro on speculation the worst of the banking crisis may be over, reducing demand for Japan's currency as a refuge.

The Yen declined 0.4% to 126.68 versus the Euro at 4:06 p.m. in New York, from 126.16 Thursday. It earlier touched 127.64, the weakest level since Jan. 7. Japan's currency lost 0.3% to 98.06 per Dollar from 97.72. The Dollar traded at $1.2919 against the Euro, compared with $1.2913.

Japan's currency was down for a fourth week against the Euro, losing 1.7% in its longest stretch of decline since January. Against the Dollar, the Yen gained 0.3% after a six-week losing streak. The Euro advanced 2% versus the Dollar this week, the biggest increase since mid-December.

The New Zealand Dollar, South Korean won and Australian Dollar were among the biggest gainers against the greenback Friday as investors sought higher-yielding assets.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars rose to the highest in a month as stocks worldwide rallied after Japan and China signaled further stimulus measures, prompting speculation investors will buy higher-yielding assets.

The currencies gained for a second straight week as prices of commodities, which account for more than half of the South Pacific nations' exports, climbed the most since March 4 Thursday. New Zealand's Dollar strengthened to a two-month high versus the Yen after the central bank Thursday said it may slow the pace of interest-rate cuts after this week reducing its benchmark to a record low.

Australia's currency rose to 65.23 US cents as of 4:27 p.m. in Sydney from 64.58 cents in Asia Thursday and 64.05 cents in New York last week. It touched 65.79 cents, the highest since Feb. 13. The currency advanced to 63.75 Yen from 62.19 late Thursday.

New Zealand's Dollar gained to 51.88 US cents from 51.22 in Asia Thursday and 50.25 cents in New York on March 6. It reached 52.36 cents, also the strongest since Feb. 13. The currency climbed to 50.72 Yen from 49.32 Yen. It touched 51.11 Yen, the most since Jan. 13.

South Africa's Rand posted its biggest weekly gain in five weeks as appetite for riskier, emerging-market assets returned on signs the global financial crisis may be easing.

The Rand fell 0.9% to 9.9952 Friday, leaving it with a gain of 4.6% for the past five days, the steepest weekly gain since 6 February.

The Euro appreciated against the US Dollar Friday as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2815 level and was supported around the $1.2615 level.

And as always, rounding out currencies here in Shanghai. The Chinese RMB appreciated vis-à-vis the US Dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8399 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8410.
  
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina, the US government's largest creditor, is "worried" about its holdings of Treasuries and wants assurances that the investment is safe, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

"We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States," Wen said Friday at a press conference in Beijing that marked the closure of the annual National People's Congress meeting. "Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am a little bit worried. I request the US to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China's assets."

China should seek to "fend off risks" as it diversifies its $1.95 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves and will safeguard its own interests, according to Wen. Chinese investors held $696 billion of US Treasuries as of Dec. 31, an increase of 46% from the prior year.

Merrill Lynch & Co.'s US Treasury Master index shows the securities declined 0.5% last month, after falling 3.1% in January, the worst since April 2004, as President Barack Obama sells record amounts of debt to fund his $787 billion bailout. The Dollar has dropped 17% against the RMB since China ended a fixed exchange rate in July 2005.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged China, while visiting officials on Feb. 22, to continue buying US debt, which she called a "safe investment." That will depend on "China's own needs and follow the principle of value preservation and safety," the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's currency regulator, said last month.

Delegates of China's legislative advisory body suggested that the biggest foreign holder of US debt diversify away from Treasuries into more risky assets at the annual meeting that started on March 3.

Jesse Wang, executive vice president of China Investment Corp., said on March 4 that his $200 billion sovereign wealth fund may invest in "undervalued" commodity assets. Zhang Guobao, head of the National Energy Administration, said China should invest more in commodities instead of hoarding the US Dollar, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on March 7.

China will maintain its policy of seeking a stable RMB, even as gains against the Euro and Asian currencies hurt the nation's exporters, Premier Wen said. People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan pledged last week to maintain RMB stability as investors pull money out of emerging-market assets because of slowing global economic growth.

"Our goal is to maintain a basically stable RMB at a balanced and reasonable level," Wen said. "At the end of the day, it is our own decision and any other countries can't press us to depreciate or appreciate our currency."

While the RMB has weakened 0.2% against the Dollar this year, there has been a "drastic depreciation" in the Euro and Asian currencies that has put a lot of pressure on Chinese exporters, Wen said.

***********************************

China can add "at any time" to 4 trillion RMB ($585 billion) of stimulus measures to revive the world's third-biggest economy, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

"We have reserved adequate ammunition," Wen said at a press briefing in Beijing Friday after the annual meeting of the legislature. "At any time, we can introduce new stimulus."

Collapsing exports have dragged the economy to its weakest growth in seven years and eliminated the jobs of millions of migrant workers. Wen reaffirmed China's target of an 8% expansion in 2009 as economies from the US to Japan contract, saying the goal was "difficult but possible" to achieve.

The National People's Congress Friday approved a record budget deficit for this year to revive growth as revenue falls. The central government's planned 1.18 trillion RMB contribution to the stimulus package announced in November will all be "new" spending, Wen said Friday.

Stimulus figures don't include 600 billion RMB of tax cuts and 850 billion RMB of health costs, he said.

Four months after the premier announced the package, economic indicators are mixed. Investment jumped a higher-than- estimated 26.5% in the first two months over a year earlier and bank loans quadrupled last month, while industrial- output growth slid as exports plunged by a record.

The premier pledged to "significantly increase" investment in his annual speech to lawmakers on March 5, without announcing a bigger stimulus.

"As long as the government's stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption are properly implemented, investment growth will continue to accelerate, making up for the loss of exports," Ma Jiantang, the head of the statistics bureau said in Beijing Friday.

Li Yizhong, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said Friday that output growth was set to recover.

Besides the slump in exports, the government faces rising unemployment, falling house prices and the risk of an increase in soured loans. About 11 million migrant workers remain unemployed after returning to China's cities after a Lunar New Year holiday in January, the government said this week.

Exports declined 25.7% in February, consumer prices fell for the first time in six years, and retail sales grew at the slowest pace in two years in the first two months.

Gross domestic product expanded 6.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with 9% for all of last year and 13% for 2007. The International Monetary Fund expects the economy to grow 6.7% this year, the smallest gain since 1990.

***********************************

China's exporters succumbed on Wednesday to the full force of the global economic turmoil. Even after the horror show of economic statistics published around the globe in recent months, China's exports numbers in February painted a grim picture.

Some analysts had been expecting a modest uptick, given that there were fewer working days in February last year because of new-year holidays. Instead, exports slumped by 25.7% as the collapse in global demand caught up with the country's exporters and overshadowed a sharp rise in domestic investment.

China's exports have decreased since November, but until last month the rate of decline had been much slower than in other Asian countries with large export sectors.

Economists said the headline figure for last month, which was already much worse than expected, probably masked an even steeper decline given that there was a shorter number of working days in February 2008 due to new-year holidays.

It was really just a question of time. Given the figures coming out of other Asian countries, China's recent export numbers were not sustainable. Chinese exports have fallen every month since November but until Wednesday they had dropped at a slower pace than elsewhere in Asia.

For Chinese diplomats preparing for the Group of 20 summit, the trade numbers might come as something of a relief. In particular, the trade surplus, which had been hovering around a record $40bn (€31bn, £29bn) a month since October, declined sharply to $4.84bn in February.

With the global recession deepening, China has been afraid that its large trade surpluses will encourage protectionist pressures and that other governments at the G20 will press China to appreciate its currency.

China this week launched its second buying mission to Europe in the past month in an effort to defuse protectionist sentiment. The government has also faced rising trade tensions with some neighbouring countries after China has begun running a trade surplus with the rest of Asia in recent months. India has already placed restrictions on Chinese imports of toys and officials fear further such measures across the region.

The figures released on Wednesday will allow the Chinese government to argue that it is starting to rebalance its economy, with exports slowing sharply and imports falling less rapidly as the government's fiscal stimulus plan starts to kick into action. The 26% rise in fixed asset investment over January and February, announced on Wednesday, lends some credibility to this story, as do huge recent increases in bank lending.

However, it is not clear if the trend is sustainable given signs of weak underlying demand in much of the economy. You could find that imports fall again in a few months time and the trade surplus rises.

A smaller trade surplus would have other international implications, including fewer Chinese purchases of US financial assets. With foreign direct investment into China also slowing and some signs of capital outflows, most economists are predicting that China's foreign currency reserves will not increase at the same rate as they did last year.

However, while the trade numbers might help to ease some of the international criticism of China, they will also magnify the already huge pressures that the government is facing at home from the export sector. Such a large decline in exports will probably mean more factories on the verge of bankruptcy and a further increase in unemployment, on top of the 20m migrant workers who have already lost their jobs from the export sector.

Chinese exporters are likely to step up calls for a depreciation of the currency. However, the government has rejected such an option. In his speech to the National People's Congress last week, Wen Jiabao, the premier, said that the exchange rate would remain "basically stable". Economists point out that a modest weakening of the Chinese currency would do little to help exports in the current market but could prompt a large and potentially destabilising capital outflow, as well as anger trading partners.

Instead, the government has been looking at other measures to try to assist exporters. Chen Deming, the commerce minister, said at the weekend that China would reduce taxes on exports to zero and provide additional financial assistance to exporters. The China Iron and Steel Association has proposed lifting a tax rebate on exports of cold-rolled steel from five% to 17%, state media reported on Wednesday.

Xie Rongfang, head of the Wenzhou Shoe Industry Association, said a further increase in tax rebates was being negotiated with the government. "The pressure on us at the moment is huge, both at home and abroad, so any financial support the government can give us will be very welcome," she said.

However, these policies bring their own dangers, because if the government appears to be doing too much for exporters it could encourage retaliatory measures from trading partners.

"If the European market starts to be flooded again with cheap Chinese steel, then there will be a big fight," said a European diplomat in Beijing this week.

After dropping 43% in January, imports fell by 24% last month, which some analysts said was a sign that the government's fiscal stimulus measures were beginning to have an impact.

Figures for fixed asset investment for the first two months of the year were also much higher than expected, rising 26.5% against the same period the year before, compared to 21.9% in December.

Within those figures, transport investment - one of the priorities of the fiscal stimulus plan - rose 210% over the same period the year before, while property investment was up only 1%, a sign of the continued weakness in the housing market.

***********************************

China's industrial output growth ground almost to a standstill at the start of the year, coming in below market expectations, but a continued surge in bank lending in February spurred optimism that business activity could soon rebound.

Retail sales also slowed in the first two months, though only slightly, showing that Chinese consumers, like the broader economy itself, remain in better shape than their counterparts around the world.

China's annual industrial output growth slowed to 3.8% in January and February from 5.7% in December, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday. The median forecast of 25 economists polled by Reuters was for a rise of 6.4%.

But production growth in February alone - when there were five more working days than in February 2008 - was 11.0%.

Annual growth in China's broad M2 measure of money supply rose to 20.5% in February from 18.8% in January, the central bank said on Thursday.

New RMB loans in February totalled 1,070bn RMB ($157bn), down from the record of 1,620bn RMB in January, but still very high by historical standards. With 10 months to go in 2009, China is already more than halfway towards reaching its goal of at least 5,000bn RMB in new bank lending.

Given how the Chinese government is keen to extend credit at the start of the year in order to support the stimulus projects later in the year, that's not too big of a surprise.

China's state-owned banks have been answering the government's call to provide a huge chunk of the financing for the 4 trillion RMB ($585bn) stimulus package designed to keep the country on track for 8% growth despite a collapse in exports and a slump in the domestic real estate sector.

Annual growth in China's retail sales slowed to 15.2% in the first two months from 19.0% in December, the NBS said. But since the figures are nominal and do not account for the fall in consumer prices thus far in 2009, consumption has actually been relatively steady in inflation-adjusted terms.
  
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
The FOMC interest rate decision and the G20 preliminary meeting are the two main events next week, but market participants will be more interested to see if equities will hold on to their gains from last week.

Today, traders will pay attention to headlines from the G20 meetings for any consensus on how member nations plan to resolve the global economic crisis.

Some strategists said if the US and Europe find some common ground it will boost risk appetite - which will supportive of equities, hurt US bond markets and drive down the US Dollar.

One Research Head said if there is talk of a global stimulus plan at the G20, he is expecting to see global bonds sell off. It would be a reaction to the view that governments will have to flood markets as they spend more money, he said.

However, rising risk appetite could only have a limited impact on US bonds ahead of the FOMC interest rate meeting. The Fed will continue to anchor the bond market, with the possibility that they could start purchasing longer term bonds.

Another analyst said that while the Fed will continue to toss around the possibility he doesn't think it is going to happen any time soon. Buying U.S. treasuries is a last resort move and I don't think they are ready to take that step yet.

Looking at the equity market, although there are no major economic reports expected next week, strategists say if the data hovers near consensus it might boost sentiment (hasn't taken a lot this week has it?).

In Canada, markets will receive January retail sales and February's CPI report. Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist from RBC Capital Markets said Canadian data isn't having a major impact as global themes continue to dominate markets.

Into Europe next week and market-watchers will look at euro zone CPI, the ZEW's economic sentiment index for Germany and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee Minutes are the main economic events of the week.

The release of final inflation data for the euro zone will be uncharacteristically important given that markets will receive a first look at core inflation for the monetary union.

Although core inflation is usually not as important as the headline data, with the preliminary results already having been released, economists say that the European Central Bank will be "closely watching" the data point as an indication of potential deflation.

As long as core inflation remains clearly above 1%, the ECB will continue to say the deflation risk is very small, they feel. If core inflation turns sharply lower, then there is some risk central bankers will look for more ways to simulate the economy though.

Economists expect the annualized core inflation rate to rise 1.6% in February, matching January's 1.6% increase, while headline CPI is expected to rise 1.2%, following a 1.1% increase in January.

On Tuesday, the ZEW will release its German economic sentiment index for March, which is expected to come in at -8.0 from -5.8 previously.

Also on the docket is the release of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Minutes on Wednesday from the meeting on March 5. At the meeting, the central bank unveiled an ambitious quantitative easing monetary policy, along with a 50 bps rate cut to 0.50%.

According to a report from Capital Economics, "the minutes should confirm the message given by Mervyn King in his press interviews on the day of the decision that interest rates are now as low as they can go at 0.5%," as well as why the central bank chose to purchase £75 billion of assets.

Central banks will be the main focus in the Asia Pacific next week, with the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, and the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its March meeting.

With rates already at a low 0.10%, the Bank of Japan is not expected to cut rates, but rather announce new asset purchase measures.

The Bank of Japan has been buying up Japanese government bonds, corporate bonds and commercial paper to support financial markets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its March 12 meeting will be released early in the week.

And as I type this, the G20 is meeting in Horsham, England this weekend to come up with the agenda for the official meeting in London on April 2. Comments from global leaders indicate the main topics will be fiscal stimulus, more funding for the International Monetary Fund and a revamping of financial regulation.

All told, next week should be brutal in my humble opinion - every fundamental indicator shows that the global stockmarket rally this week is purely based on hope, hope and more hope - with very little basis for those gains to be held; notwithstanding what some of the analyst's comments above may imply.

I seriously believe that through the sheer monotony of constant negative news, markets around the world jumped on the US-led 'positivity' and decided to have a brief flutter.

Ladies and Gentlemen, please remember that stockmarkets are NOT the real economics, they are just purely and simply a gauge on how much Investors are prepared to trust that a given company looks good going forward - in basic terms, that is all stockmarkets are.

We have had a few positive comments from US Banks - albeit succeeded by major caveats - and one large US Carmaker has said they wouldn't be needing a 'bailout' just yet.

Boom! - that was all the market needed after months and months of negativity, to entice investors back for a short spurt of 'betting'.  That is all this week has been and nothing more.

Next week I do NOT see markets holding onto those gains and as we approach the end of the first Quarter the week after next, I see a major downward push once more, not only testing new lows for the year but breaking through them with gusto.

Without wishing to sound so negative, I would like to repeat that we are not out of those woods just yet - but we can at least see the tree-line!
  
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
  
 
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