Financial Page International

16 May 2009 - Global Markets Review

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen,

Let's start by looking at some of the news this week:

Europe's economy contracted at the fastest pace in at least 13 years in the first quarter as companies cut output and jobs to survive the worst global slump in more than six decades.

Gross domestic product in the 16-member Euro region fell 2.5% from the fourth quarter, the biggest decline since the data were first compiled in 1995, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said Friday. That exceeded the 2% contraction economists expected and followed a 1.6% drop in the prior three months.

The deepest global recession since World War II is curbing European exports and eroding consumer demand, forcing companies to cut spending and jobs. The German and Italian economies also contracted by the most on record. Hong Kong's economy shrank at the fastest pace since at least 1990, prompting the government to forecast a full-year contraction of as much as 6.5%.

France's economy shrank and lost jobs for the fourth straight quarter in the first three months as companies slashed investment and exports plunged.

The German economy is in its worst post-war recession after plunging 6.7%.

Gross domestic product has crashed 3.8% since the start of the year and 6.7% since the beginning of 2008, with economic growth decreasing in every quarter.

The decline from January to March is by far the biggest since 1970, according to the Federal Office. In the first quarter of 2009, GDP growth decreased by 0.1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2008 to -2.2%.

According to statistics, the unprecedented plunge in the GDP is due to a weak trading balance. At the beginning of the year, exports were much stronger than imports.

Germany is considered as one of the strongest countries in the world in terms of exports - but investment has also declined compared with the last quarter.

Only private and state consumer spending has risen.

Economists are shocked - even the 'experts' predicted a decline of just 3.2%.

In Belgium, KBC Bank was bailed out for a 'third' time by the Government - yes, THREE times now.

In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ended 9 May rose 32,000 to 637,000, the Labour Department reported. It's the highest level since mid-April. The four-week average of initial claims rose 6,000 to 630,500.

Bank chief executives will be replaced in the next couple of months as the US scrutinizes financially troubled lenders, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair predicted.

"Management needs to be evaluated," Bair said Friday on Television to be broadcast this weekend. "Have they been doing a good job? Are there people who can do a better job?"

US regulators last week released stress-test results on 19 banks and ordered 10 including Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo to raise $74.6 billion in capital to withstand a "deeper and more protracted" slump than forecast. CEOs of Citigroup and Bank of America, which got a total of $90 billion in US aid, remain on the job, while top executives at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and General Motors Corp. were ousted after getting US aid.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said demand for the central bank's loans to buy asset- backed securities is likely to rise next month from May's total as investors become more comfortable with the program.

The Treasury Department agreed to extend billions in federal bailout funds to six major life insurers. The move was positive because it means the insurers will get more capital, but negative because it implied that the insurers' problems posed a serious risk to the financial system.

Among the companies, the Hartford Financial Services Group said it is eligible for $3.4 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, while Lincoln National Corp. said it has been initially approved for a $2.5 billion injection.

General Motors Corp., facing a probable bankruptcy filing by June 1, is telling 1,100 "underperforming" US dealers they will be terminated as the automaker starts shrinking its retail network.

Most of the closings will occur by October 2010, and none are happening now, Detroit-based GM said Friday. The targeted outlets will have until the end of the month to appeal the decisions, GM said, without specifying the stores on the list.

The shutdowns are the biggest US automaker's first step to pare domestic dealers to a range of 3,600 to 4,000 from 5,969 by the end of 2010. With fewer retailers, the survivors may each be able to sell more cars at higher prices, boosting profit.

UK repossessions by mortgage lenders jumped by 51% in the first quarter from a year earlier as the recession deepened, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said.

Repossessions climbed to 12,800, compared with 8,500 in the same quarter in 2008, the group, which represents home-loan providers, said in an e-mailed statement Friday. The reading is up from 10,400 in the previous three months.

The Bank of England said this week that the economy may contract for the rest of the year and lending will take longer to resume than previously forecast. The bank left the key interest rate at 0.5% last week as unemployment jumped in the first quarter by the most since 1981.

The Bank of England's forecasts show Governor Mervyn King may need to print more money than the 150 billion pounds ($227 billion) currently authorized by Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, Morgan Stanley said.

The bank may have to ask the Treasury to expand the asset purchase program after predicting this week that inflation will stay below its 2% target even if it prints the currently planned 125 billion pounds, Lauren Mutkin, Morgan Stanley's head of European fixed-income strategy, said in a note Friday.

King forecast "a relatively slow and protracted recovery," on May 13, saying that inflation is more likely to stay below the goal in the next two years than to exceed it. Policy makers have resorted to printing money and using it to buy securities in UK debt markets after they cut the benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.5%.

Given all of the above, there was no way even in this 'whacky' market-sentiment that markets could have gone up this week no chance at all.  As I have said all along, whilst unemployment continues to rise, those fundamentals just are not there and the market had to do one of two things; it had to stop and pause, or it had to stop and start dropping.

"Which one is it then?" I hear you ask. Well, I have advocated the latter for the past 2 months but there are some interesting side-issues now coming into play that I am looking at and next week will be critical I feel.

If the market does not drop another 4-5% next week across the board, we may see a protracted period of flat/mildly negative movement and a sustained period of consolidation - but without the 20% correction I have been saying was on the cards.

But I am still leaning towards a 20% overall correction and back to testing the lows of March - but next week will be the key, further declines and I'll be right.  Flat on the week and we'll be into a flat summer period.

One thing that is worth looking at Ladies and Gentlemen currently is LIBOR.

The cost of borrowing in Dollars between banks fell, capping its biggest weekly decline in four months, as government cash injections and interest-rate cuts led by the Federal Reserve began to thaw credit markets.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three- month loans in Dollars decreased almost two basis points to 0.83% Friday, the British Bankers' Association said. The TED spread, the difference between what banks and the US Treasury pay to borrow for three months, narrowed to the lowest level since August 2007, when the credit crisis began.

Bank borrowing costs slid as the US government and the Federal Reserve committed $12.8 trillion to stem the longest recession since the 1930s and central banks around the world cut interest rates to near zero. Libor, used to set borrowing costs on about $360 trillion of financial products globally, according to the BBA, jumped to 4.82% in October, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

The TED spread, the difference between Libor and the three- month Treasury bill yield, dropped three basis points to 67 basis points Friday, the least since Aug. 8, 2007, the day before France's BNP Paribas SA halted withdrawals from three of its funds because of losses related to subprime mortgages.

But as a measure of how far we still have to go in Banks becoming more 'normal' - The Libor-OIS spread, a measure of the unwillingness of banks to offer each other cash, narrowed three basis points to 63 basis points, its lowest level since 24 March 2008. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in June last year he wouldn't consider money markets back to "normal" until the spread was at 25 basis points. The average in the five years preceding the credit squeeze was 11 basis points.

Food for thought indeed and as you can see, I never mentioned any "smoke and mirrors" this week because basically, it is all now coming out in the wash!

On to the numbers on the boards:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS equities on Friday ended their first week of significant losses since the start of the rally in March as investors worried that economic green shoots could turn out to be little more than weeds.

Wall Street experienced heavy losses on Wednesday after figures showed April retail sales unexpectedly fell. They failed to recover fully during the rest of the week as moderate gains on Thursday were followed by another dip on Friday.

Further worries about consumer activity came on Friday after two leading clothing retailers announced worse results than expected.

JC Penney reported profit marginally below consensus estimates and lowered its full-year estimates, saying it expected consumer spending to remain weak. The shares lost 0.4% to $26.54.

Designer brand name Abercrombie & Fitch lost ground after posting a steeper than expected first quarter loss. Its shares fell 4.2% to $26.10.

Nordstrom, the upmarket department store, bucked the trend, beating analysts' estimates in spite of falling sales. It raised its full-year outlook, sending its shares up 7.8% to $22.58.

Analysts warned that sales figures gave a more accurate picture of consumer behaviour than surveys on confidence.

The economic outlook saw equities markets fall on Friday, on a day of raised volatility, as many investors moved to cover their positions on options, which were about to expire.

The benchmark S&P 500 index fell 1.1% to 882.88 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8% to 8,268.64 points.

The Nasdaq Composite index outperformed, finding relative strength in technology stocks, which fell during the early part of the week. The index dropped 0.5% to 1,680.14 points, taking it to its first weekly loss in 10. The three main market measures fell between 3.3-5% in the week.

Energy stocks were some of the heaviest fallers on the day as the price of oil fell 3%. Chevron lost 2% to $65.88 and ExxonMobil gave up 0.9% to $69.11.

Industrial and materials stocks outperformed after figures showed that manufacturing output in New York state is falling at a slower rate than expected.

Financial stocks were weak on worries over the economic outlook. This weakness affected insurers even after several companies were approved for bail-out funds from the government's troubled asset relief programme (Tarp).

After early gains, insurers fell during the broader sell-off. Hartford, which has approval for $3.4bn, fell 1% to $14.60, while Lincoln National which may take $2.5bn, lost 0.7% to $16.12.

Technology companies have proved stable this year, and have outperformed every other sector.

That changed during the week as investors banked profits and shares fell, but the sector held up amid the wider sell-off on Friday, losing 0.1% to 262.15 points.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean markets fell 3% this week, which some analysts took as the end of an equities rally in which shares have risen 30% from March's lows.

Data on Friday showed that gross domestic product in the Eurozone fell 2.5% in the first quarter , which was more than expected, and 4.6% year on year. The German economy shrank 3.8% in the quarter.

Bourses opened lower on Monday as investors rotated out of cyclical stocks and into defensive ones, such as pharmaceuticals. Indices continued to fall until Thursday, when the trend was reversed - defensives began to lag and banks led exchanges to modest rises.

The pan-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 index fell 3% over the week to 839.94 points; France's CAC 40 lost 4.3% to 3,169.05 points; and Germany's Xetra Dax ceded 3.6% to 4,737.50 points.

Turkey's ISE outperformed the region's indices by rising 2% to 33,484.52 on strong first-quarter results from banks, whose profits have been boosted by interest rate cuts.

GERMANY

German stocks were little changed, as the slowest pace of decline in US industrial production in six months offset a bigger-than-forecast contraction in Europe's largest economy.

MAN AG, Europe's third-largest truckmaker, and Salzgitter AG, Germany's second-biggest steelmaker, rose more than 2.5% as a report showed output at US factories, mines and utilities slipped less than forecast in April. Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest carmaker, closed at the lowest since March 24 as Germany's gross domestic product shrank.

The benchmark DAX Index lost less than 0.1% to 4,737.50, bringing its weekly decline to 3.6%. The HDAX Index of Germany's biggest companies gained 0.2%.

Volkswagen dropped 1% to 220.31 Euros, falling for a fifth straight day.

Germany's economy shrank the most since quarterly data were first compiled in 1970, the Federal Statistics Office said Friday. Gross domestic product plunged 3.8% in the first three months of the year, more than the 3% decline predicted.

MAN gained 3.6% to 46.23 Euros, extending Thursday's 4% rise. Salzgitter climbed 2.8% to 53.46 Euros, while Thyssenkrupp AG, Germany's largest steelmaker, rallied 1.1% to 15.98 Euros.

Separately, HSBC Holdings Plc increased its price estimate on MAN shares to 62 Euros from 46 Euros.

US industrial production decreased 0.5% last month, less than a 0.6% forecast, after falling a revised 1.7% in March, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Friday in Washington.

Commerzbank AG rose 2.8% to 5.14 Euros, ending four days of decline. Chief Executive Officer Martin Blessing said Germany's second-biggest bank doesn't need more state aid and won't be influenced by the government even after it becomes the largest shareholder.

ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG added 3% to 3.48 Euros. Germany's biggest private broadcaster had its price estimate raised to 4.20 Euros from 1.50 Euros at UniCredit SpA.

ElringKlinger climbed 1.7% to 10.90 Euros. DZ Bank AG raised its price estimate 33% to 8 Euros on the German auto-parts company.

Euromicron added 3.1% to 12.73 Euros. The maker of controllers for refrigerators and fiber-optic components said first-quarter consolidated earnings before interest and taxes rose 30% to 2.7 million Euros as revenue increased.

Medion, the consumer electronics company that makes two-thirds of its revenue in Germany, gained 3.5% to 6.77 Euros after affirming its full-year forecast.

SMA Solar Technology rallied 3.6% to 51.80 Euros. The company, which has supplied solar power equipment to the Vatican, predicted sales will increase in the second quarter.

FRANCE

France's benchmark CAC 40 Index rose 12.76, or 0.4%, to 3,169.05, trimming its weekly decline to 4.3%. The SBF 120 gained 0.5% Friday to 2,298.23.

CGGVeritas dropped 18 cents, or 1.6%, to 10.94 Euros, falling for a fifth day. The world's largest seismic surveyor was cut to "sell" from "neutral" at UBS AG, which said "the timing of a recovery remains uncertain."

Eiffage SA gained 94 cents, or 2.3%, to 42.24 Euros, rising for a second day. France's third-biggest construction company reported a 2% increase in first- quarter revenue to 3.04 billion Euros ($4.1 billion).

European Aeronautic, Defence & Space, the region's biggest aerospace company, jumped 30.5 cents, or 2.7%, to 11.45 Euros, extending Thursday's 4.2% rise.

Electricite de France SA, the world's largest operator of nuclear reactors, climbed 52.5 cents, or 1.5%, to 36.34 Euros.

Output at factories, mines and utilities decreased 0.5% last month, less than a 0.6% forecast, after falling a revised 1.7% in March, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Friday in Washington.

Passat SA climbed 18 cents, or 6%, to 3.17 Euros, the biggest gain in a month. The maker of heat-resistant gloves reported a 21% rise in first-quarter revenue to 11.6 million Euros and forecast the trend will continue over the rest of 2009.

Societe Generale, France's third-largest bank, added 89.5 cents, or 2.6%, to 35.76 Euros, rising for the first time in a week. France's biggest banks could withstand "stress tests" with an economic contraction of 3% in two consecutive years, Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said.

Credit Agricole, the second-largest French bank, rose 19 cents, or 1.9%, to 10.37 Euros. Natixis SA, the investment bank which this week reported its fourth consecutive quarterly loss, advanced 3.1 cents, or 2.2%, to 1.46 Euros.

Theolia SA climbed 44 cents, or 14%, to 3.62 Euros, the highest close since Jan. 06. The French wind power producer planning to sell assets to stem losses said first-quarter sales doubled, boosted by the development, construction and sale of wind farms in Germany.

BELGIUM

Brussels saw the Bel 20 close up 1.36% Friday, ending the week at 2,005.33.

The Belgian government bailed out KBC for the third time in eight months after it posted worse-than-expected results.

KBC shares were suspended on Wednesday and fell 47.7% to €12.55 over the week.

Belgium's dominant telecom operator, Belgacom, rose 7% even after reporting a bigger-than-expected 5% drop in core profit.

Shares of Nektar Therapeutics Inc. jumped Thursday after the Food and Drug Administration approved its partner's rheumatoid arthritis drug Cimzia, setting the biotechnology company up for revenue from a potential blockbuster drug.

The drug is made by Belgian drug maker UCB using Nektar technology. Under the partnership, Nektar receives manufacturing revenue during research, clinical development, and sales of the drug. It also receives royalties on sales.

THE NETHERLANDS

The AEX in Amsterdam saw strong gains Friday, up 0.57% to close at 252.92.

Dutch financial group ING made clear this week it was not in any particular rush to complete its planned 8 billion Euros of asset sales -- but to hear analysts and bankers tell it, Chief Executive Jan Hommen may be the only one lacking a sense of urgency.

"We will take our time. We are not in a hurry. We will do it when the time is right and when the conditions are right," Hommen told reporters Wednesday while discussing the company's first-quarter results.

But analysts are not so sure that he has unlimited freedom to dispose of those assets, part of the Amsterdam-based group's "back to basics" plan announced in April.

ING, which was ranked as the twelfth-largest bank by market value last February, made a loss in 2008 and received a 10 billions Euros injection from the Dutch state in October last year after being battered by the global credit crisis.. The company shares have lost 72% of their value over the past 12 months.

Dutch property group Eurocommercial Properties reported a 6.5% rise in third quarter operating income from a year earlier, as rentals at its retail shopping centres held up despite the biting recession. Eurocommercial said its direct investment result for the fiscal third quarter ending March 31 was 17.03 million Euros ($23.17 million), beating the average forecast of 16 million Euros.

SWITZERLAND

The SMI in Zurich swung both sides of the median throughout Friday, eventually settling down 0.17% at 5,350.67.

Swiss-banks were down Friday with UBS losing 4.2% and Credit Suisse falling 3.1%.

Roche, the Swiss drugmaker, said it would step up production of Tamiflu. This further boosted its shares and, having fallen 0.9% on Friday, Roche rose 2.1% to SFr145.70 over the five sessions.

The Swiss government is expected to sell the stake it took in UBS to save it after a lock-up expires on June 9, analysts and traders said on Thursday as the prospect of an exit boosted the bank's shares.

In return for a capital injection of 6 billion Swiss francs ($5.4 billion) last year, UBS issued the government with notes convertible into UBS registered shares no later than 30 months after issuance or in June 2011.

A lock-up period for the notes, which would give Berne a 9.3% stake in the world's largest wealth manager, ends on June 9, allowing Berne to convert the notes into shares or sell all or part of its investment to other investors.

AUSTRIA

The ATX Bourse in Vienna ended the week at 1,959.31, up 0.87% on the day.

Lufthansa's proposed takeover of Austrian Airlines has come an important step closer with the approval of close to 90% of the Austrian flag-carrier's shareholders, but the deal could still be grounded by the European Commission.

Lufthansa's takeover of Austrian Airlines is considered vital to keeping the unprofitable airline flying. Austrian Airlines' Co-Chief Executive Peter Malanik said in a statement the offer acceptance late Monday represented a milestone in the privatization and sale of the carrier.

But the company also noted that two investigations into the sale by the European Commission may yet topple the deal.

Austrian Airlines' shares were trading at Eur4.13.

With the acquisition of Austrian Airlines, Lufthansa would gain the most comprehensive route network in Eastern Europe of any Western European airline.

The Commission is scrutinizing the sale for antitrust issues and is also investigating whether a Eur500 million aid injection into Austrian Airlines by the Austrian government to sweeten the sale contravened EU rules.

Telekom Austria cut its revenue outlook as price cuts and the economic downturn caused a 6% decline in first-quarter core earnings, but reassured investors that its profit guidance for the year was intact.

The state-controlled group said 2009 revenue would be "slightly weaker" than previously forecast, but that it would cut costs to offset the shortfall and still expected to meet its profit guidance and make good on its dividend pledge.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) were 455 million Euros ($620 million) in the March quarter, driven down by a drop in mobile earnings in Austria and Bulgaria, where price cuts due to regulatory price cuts, competition and more cost-conscious clients, led to falling revenue.

SWEDEN

The OMX Stockholm 30 posted gains of almost 1% Friday, closing up 0.94% at 764.77.

Appearances are deceiving. Swedish clothing retailer Hennes and Mauritz's said on Friday same-store sales came in better than expected, but it might have more to do with the tough ride the company had a year ago, which made improvement relatively easy, rather than a solid and sustained improvement in trading.

Shares of H&M fell 1.8%, or 6.50 Swedish Kroner, to 355.50 Swedish Kroner in Stockholm.

The cheap-but-chic retailer said same-store sales rose 8% in April compared to a 10% drop in the same period last year. The mean forecast in a poll of 12 analysts had been for same-store sales at the Swedish company to rise 7.5% from a year earlier.

H&M said total sales for the month were up 19% from a year ago versus a forecast of a 17.5%. H&M only gives percentage movements for sales.

Shares in Sandvik, the world's largest maker of metal-cutting tools, plunged Tuesday after it posted a first-quarter net loss and said demand continues to sag.

The Sandviken, Sweden-based company has shut production units and given notice to more than 5,000 workers since the autumn, and the company indicated more layoffs are to come.

Net loss for the three-month period ended March 31 was 321 million Swedish Kronor ($38.8 million), compared to a SEK1.89 billion net profit in the same period a year earlier. A poll of nine analysts forecast net profit of SEK30 million.

Revenue fell 13% to SEK19.14 billion from SEK21.99 billion, below expectations of SEK20.24 billion. Operating profit plunged 96% to SEK115 million, missing the analysts' forecast of SEK688 million.

Order intake fell 29% to SEK17.75 billion.

The bottom line was also weakened by lower prices for nickel and other metals, which cut SEK426 million from earnings at the materials-technology unit as Sandvik revised down the value of its metals inventories.

FINLAND

The OMX in Helsinki ended the week on a positive note with gains on the day Friday of 2.22%, closing out at 5,654.67.

Finnish food group Raisio said on Thursday it will sell its margarine business to US-based Bunge Limited (BG.N) to focus on grain-based products, sending its shares to 12-month highs.

Raisio, which produces cereals, feed and processed foods, said the deal was worth 80 million Euros ($108.4 million). It will book a gain of 42 million once the sale, which needs regulatory approval, is sealed. Raisio expects this to happen in the third quarter.

"The deal is an important step for Raisio towards focusing on its grain-based business. The transaction will bring Raisio a new, significant ... partner who is looking to develop Benecol and (other) functional foods," Chief Executive Matti Rihko said in a statement.

DENMARK

The OMX 20 in Copenhagen also had a good Friday, closing up 2.25% at 293.53.

Lundbeck posted better first-quarter results than expected and surged 18% to DKr127.25 over the week. Novo Nordisk added 5.5% to DKr277.50.

A.P. Moeller-Maersk, owner of the world's largest container line, may post a full-year loss for the first time in at least half a century after freight rates declined because of falling trade.

Maersk had a first-quarter net loss, including minority interests, of 2.13 billion Kroner ($390 million) compared with profit of 5.22 billion Kroner a year earlier, the Copenhagen- based company said in a stock-exchange statement Friday. The loss was wider than the 821 million-Kroner median estimate of nine analysts surveyed. Sales dropped 12% to 63 billion Kroner.

Maersk Line, which owns more than 450 vessels with combined capacity of 1.9 million containers, has lost money while adjusting to the global economic slowdown and increased competition on trade routes. The company said Friday it expects to report a loss in the second quarter and "can't rule out" losing money for the whole year.

It was a weak report and it shows that Maersk has a long way to go before its container business gets out of this very difficult situation

NORWAY

In Oslo the OBX rose 0.68% Friday to end the week at 247.98.

Norwegian media group Schibsted reported a bigger than expected drop in core profits for the first quarter on Friday and said it would raise capital with a 1.3 billion crown ($198 million) rights issue.

Earnings before interest, tax and amortisation sank to 5 million crowns in the three months to end-March from 283 million in the same quarter last year, with revenues and profits hit by weak advertising.

The result was towards the low end of the range of analysts' estimates of a loss of 12 million crowns to a profit of 174 million in a . It undershot the average forecast of a profit of 77 million crowns.

Norway will spend more of its oil wealth this year to help stimulate the economy and create jobs in what the finance minister called the most expansive national budget in 30 years.

SPAIN

The IBEX in Madrid was mainly flat Friday, ending a tiny 0.06% down at 8,978.60.

Spanish bank Bankinter said on Wednesday it has decided to raise capital through a new share issue worth 361.4 million Euros ($493.2 million) after buying the half of Spanish unit of Direct Line Insurance it didn't already own.

The bank's chairman, Pedro Guerrero, said on April 23 that Bankinter planned to raise more capital after buying Royal Bank of Scotland's stake in the Spanish unit of Direct Line Insurance for 426 million Euros in cash.

The new shares will be issued at 5.35 Euros per share.

Spain's Prisa, publisher of El Pais newspaper, said on Thursday it had signed a new bridge loan with creditors, boosting shares as investors hailed what is seen as a vote of confidence in the group's future.

The agreement extends a 1.95 billion Euro ($2.64 billion) bridge loan which expired at the end of March for another year to March 31 2010.

Prisa said it would establish a business plan to strengthen its "financial and capital structure", without providing further details.

The agreement had been delayed, casting doubts on the future of the publishing, TV and radio group which is struggling with a massive debt pile and a slump in advertising revenues.

Shares in Prisa were trading down 3.99% before the announcement, and quickly reversed losses to trade up 2.9% to 2.84 Euros.

PORTUGAL

The PSI General Index in Lisbon ended the week at 2,434.31, gains of 0.5% on the day.

Portugal Telecom said Thursday first-quarter net profit rose 19%, bolstered by strong revenue growth at Brazilian joint-venture Vivo Participacoes and lower taxes.

PT, as Portugal's biggest telecommunications company by market capitalization and subscribers is also known, also said its board will propose a dividend of Eur0.575 a share for fiscal years 2009, 2010 and 2011, subject to market and financial conditions.

The company reported net profit of Eur166.4 million for the first three months of the year, up from Eur139.8 million a year earlier.

Revenue rose 2.1% to Eur1.60 billion, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell 1% to Eur602.6 million. Tax provisions fell to Eur56 million in the first quarter, down from Eur79 million a year earlier.

Portuguese infrastructure company Mota-Engil SGPS said Friday its first-quarter net profit rose 10% because of robust sales in its construction division.

The company reported a net profit of Eur2.4 million, up from Eur2.2 million in the same period last year. Sales in the first three months of the year rose to Eur430.0 million from Eur383.6 million, mainly bolstered by construction in Angola.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, rose to Eur65.1 million, from Eur59.4 million in first quarter 2008.

Mota Engil's shares rose 2.8% to Eur3.227 in Lisbon Friday.

In January, Mota Engil completed the acquisition of 24.19% of tollbridge operator Lusoponte from Australia's Macquarie Infrastructure Group.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark S&P/MIB Index rose 277, or 1.4%, to 19,548 in Milan. The measure fell 4.7% this week.

A2A SpA rose for a third day, adding 6.3 cents, or 5.2%, to 1.29 Euros. Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to "outperform" from "underperform." The brokerage cited a "cheap" valuation and said "the likely renewal of the supervisory board could improve the corporate governance and accelerate cost-cutting."

Arnoldo Mondadori Editore, the publisher controlled by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, declined 6.25 cents, or 2.1%, to 2.97 Euros. The first quarter was "poor," Cheuvreux said in a note. The brokerage, which cited a "massive margin erosion," maintained a "sell" rating on the stock.

Biesse SpA fell to the lowest in almost two weeks, losing 10 cents, or 2.1%, to 4.6 Euros. Gruppo Banca Leonardo downgraded the Italian woodcutting machine maker to "sell" from "underweight" because of "weak" results.

Danieli SpA surged for a second day, adding 51 cents, or 5.2%, to 10.24 Euros. Berenberg Bank increased its price estimate on the Italian steel mill engineer to 16 Euros from 9.4 Euros and kept a "buy" rating. The brokerage said that while the fiscal third quarter was "very poor, visibility is improving." Danieli also had its price projection increased to 9 Euros from 6.5 Euros at Cheuvreux, which kept an "underperform" rating.

Esprinet SpA jumped 80 cents, or 16%, to 5.81 Euros, the biggest increase since November 2001. Intermonte Sim SpA upgraded the Italian computer and electronics distributor to "outperform" from "neutral." The brokerage cited "strong" first-quarter results.

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA rose for the first time this week, adding 17 cents, or 7.4%, to 2.48 Euros. Cheuvreux upgraded Italy's second-biggest bank to "outperform" from "underperform," citing a "good" first quarter and an "improving" outlook. Exane BNP Paribas increased its price estimate by 40% to 2.8 Euros, while Credit Suisse Group AG and Natixis Securities lifted their price projections to 2.6 Euros from 2.5 Euros and to 3 Euros from 2.3 Euros, respectively.

Iride SpA added 4.6 cents, or 4.3%, to 1.11 Euros. Gruppo Banca Leonardo reiterated its "strong buy" recommendation both on the Turin-based utility and Enia SpA (EN IM), saying "Iride's generation business proved to be strong and not affected by the difficult macro-economic scenario."

Shares of the Parma, Italy-based utility advanced 9 cents, or 2.1%, to 4.4 Euros.

Maire Tecnimont SpA gained 9.1 cents, or 5.4%, to 1.77 Euros. UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking reiterated a "buy" recommendation on the Italian energy services specialist, citing a company presentation. "Management has highlighted that it expects 0.7 billion Euros of new orders to be announced in the current quarter," analysts Stefano Vitali and Roberto Odierna wrote in a note released after the market close Thursday.

Mediaset SpA, the television company controlled by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, declined 7.25 cents, or 1.6%, to 4.59 Euros.

Rupert Murdoch's Sky Italia is a "strong" competitor and the News Corp. chairman's plan to charge for access to newspaper Web sites is a "good idea," Mediaset Chairman Fedele Confalonieri told daily La Stampa.

Parmalat SpA gained the most in almost eight months, adding 12.5 cents, or 8.2%, to 1.65 Euros. Italy's biggest dairy company said first-quarter profit almost doubled to 176.3 million Euros ($238.5 million). The company reiterated a forecast that it would have earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of between 310 million Euros and 320 million Euros this year.

Prysmian SpA added 21.5 cents, or 2.4%, to 9.35 Euros. Basic resources were the best performers among the 19 industry groups in Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index Friday.

Tenaris SA, the world's biggest maker of seamless steel tubes for pipelines, gained 24.5 cents, or 2.5%, to 9.96 Euros.

STMicroelectronics rose 15.75 cents, or 3.4%, to 4.74 Euros. Europe's largest semiconductor maker is scheduled to hold its "Analyst Day" in New York Friday.

Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale rose 3.75 cents, or 1.5%, to 2.54 Euros. The owner of Italy's national power grid said first-quarter profit rose 3.7% to 94.1 million Euros. Cheuvreux, which has the stock in its "selected list," said in a note after the release that revenue was "a touch above" its estimates mainly due to higher sales in Brazil.

Unipol Gruppo Finanziario SpA, Italy's fourth- biggest insurer, dropped 1.7 cents, or 1.7%, to 96 cents, after gaining 5.2% Thursday. Operating earnings growth will depend to a large extent on the contribution from the efficiency measures announced for the P&C division.

GREECE

In Athens, the Athex Composite closed the week at 2,146.15, up 1.04% Friday.

Greece will allow short selling on the Athens stock exchange from June 1 but such orders will be flagged and meet an uptick rule, the securities regulator said on Friday.

"Short-selling orders... must be entered at a price higher than the last deal on the exchange (uptick rule)," the capital market commission said in a statement.

Greece's securities watchdog had banned short sales on the Athens bourse in October last year as the global financial crisis deepened, unsettling markets. The ban was later extended to May 31 this year.

Greek shares .ATG plunged more than 60% last year. The benchmark index is up 18.9% year-to-date.

The regulator also said that investors with short positions exceeding 0.10% of a listed company's outstanding shares must promptly disclose this to the stock market authorities and the investment public, not later than a day after the limit is breached.

The bourse will publish on a daily basis the short interest and the amount of short sales on individual stocks.

Greece's sixth-largest lender ATEbank said on Thursday first quarter group net profit rose 23.1% to 37.3 million Euros ($50.6 million), boosted by trading gains.

Net interest income at the state-controlled bank grew 8.9% to 158 million Euros, with net interest margin dropping to 2.6% from 2.9% in the first quarter last year, the result of a narrowing of deposit spreads.

The bank said net fee and commission income rose to 15.8% to 17.5 million Euros.

Credit to households - mortgages and consumer loans - rose 22.6%, well above the market's 9.2% growth rate, to reach 8.1 billion Euros. Deposits were up 2.9% to 20.6 billion.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsBT Group was the biggest blue-chip faller on Friday amid analyst downgrades and trading concerns.

Its full-year results on Thursday met investors' low expectations. The group announced a stop-gap agreement with the pension regulator and cut its dividend by 60%.

The news eclipsed BT's current-year sales guidance, which was well below consensus forecasts.

BT lost 3.9% to 85p, a three-week low.

Vodafone was also weak, losing 2.3% to 123.2p before its full-year results on Tuesday. Merrill Lynch cut earnings forecasts ahead of the numbers to reflect sterling's recent rebound.

The FTSE 100 closed down 0.3% or 14.47 points at 4,348.11. The benchmark lost 2.6% for the week, breaking a four-week winning streak.

Falling crude oil weighed on the energy sector, with BP down 0.6% to 501p and Royal Dutch Shell B shares off 0.7% to £16. Cazenove cut earnings forecasts for both to reflect a more bearish view on global oil demand.

Other defensive stocks were sidelined. GlaxoSmithKline was off 1.3% to £10.51 in spite of news that it had secured orders from governments for 128m swine flu vaccines. At £5 a dose, that could add 5% to GSK's current-year earnings, Citigroup said,

Thomson Reuters eased 0.5% to £16.79 after it hosted an analyst meeting on the potential benefits of the US stimulus package. "With the shares having outperformed European media by 26% since their mid-January lows, we believe there was nothing new here that could drive them further," said Credit Suisse.

Whitbread slid 0.3% to 851p amid vague rumours of a rights issue from the brewer, which shareholders played down.

Defence contractor Cobham gained 4.2% to £13.16 after its recently acquired M/A-Com division won an order from the US air force.

Barclays led the blue-chip gainers, rising 5.8% to 267¾p on confirmation of talks to sell its asset management business, Barclays Global Investors.

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, raised their target price for Barclays to 270p from 170p, remarking, "Barclays Capital performed well in the first quarter, more than offsetting rising credit costs. We think it can trade profitably over the next few years and capital should build, but monoline exposure will remain a debating point."

Marks and Spencer rose 1.8% to 327½p, helped by figures from the John Lewis department store chain showing the best sales so far this year.

The news deflected attention from talk of a dividend cut at its results next week, and an aggressive note from Investec calling on the retailer to stop relying on promotions and breakaway store formats.

Two positive broker calls lifted Experian by 3.8% to 483p. Starting coverage with an "overweight" stance, JPMorgan called the credit agency a "sexy beast" that had consistently shown resilience. Deutsche Bank upgraded Experian to "buy" on the expectation that its continued investment would leave the business well placed.

Wafer maker PV Crystalox Solar led the mid-cap fallers. It dropped 13.4% to 93½p after it said oversupply had driven spot prices below contract levels.

Staffing group SThree fell 5.2% to 217½p after HSBC downgraded it to "neutral" in a business sector review that said the market had been too quick to embrace recovery hopes.

The exodus from the Aim continued on Friday with two more foreign companies indicating that they would almost certainly be leaving the junior market.

Shares in Delek Global Real Estatefell 15.3% to 42p after the Israeli-based property group said its 81.6% shareholder, Delek Belron International, had requisitioned a shareholder meeting to vote on delisting. Traders were not surprised. They said a delisting was always on the cards after shareholders rejected DBI's 50p a share cash offer for Delek last week.

Burani Designer Holdings, a provider of Italian lifestyle products, dropped 35% to 0.14 cents after its majority shareholder, Burani Private Holding, made a similar request. Burani's independent directors warned that the delisting resolution would be approved and that BPH had indicated it would not offer shareholders an exit mechanism, such as a tender offer.

Pursuit Dynamics continued its good run, rising a further 30.4% to 133p. Traders said a combination of short sellers being forced to buyback their positions and a note from Cenkos had pushed the price higher.

Cenkos said the use of Pursuit's Basilisk system to decontaminate public places in Mexico City against swine flu was a big endorsement of its technology. "The system is being operated by EADS - to disperse chemicals supplied by DuPont," it said, noting Pursuit had struck a royalty deal with EADS.

AGI Therapeutics, the stomach drug specialist, tumbled 65.2% to 13¾p after its led drug Rezular failed in a large-scale clinical trial.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Tokyo stocks rose Friday as financials and some technology blue chips like Sony surged, with a stable Yen and better-than-expected machinery orders data also supporting market sentiment.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 171.29 points, or 1.9%, to 9265.02, closing just a few ticks below its intraday high.

The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues ended up 18.99 points, or 2.2%, at 881.65.

Turnover was moderate at about 2.4 billion shares.

June Nikkei 225 futures ended up 140 points, or 1.5%, at 9270 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

With earnings reporting season drawing to a close, the market will likely focus on next week's economic indicators

Upcoming economic data will likely influence Dollar/Yen movements next week, in turn shaping the Nikkei, said Investrust chief executive Hiroyuki Fukunaga; a breach of Y93.55 - the Dollar's early January level - could jeopardize 9000 support for the Nikkei.

Despite Friday's gain, the Nikkei still lost 1.8% for the week, but remains up 4.9% for May, and 4.6% for 2009.

Japan March machinery orders data - released before the market open - fell less than expected, with closely-watched core private-sector orders sliding a seasonally adjusted 1.3% on month, better than the consensus 5.1% decline.

Non-bank financials, insurers, and brokerages led 28 of 33 Topix subindexes higher, while electronics and device makers benefited more directly from the pre-market data surprise.

Shares of financial firms were sharply higher after their US counterparts gained overnight. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group rose 4.3% to Y613, while Nomura Holdings gained 5.3% to Y679.

Mizuho Financial Group ended up 2.2% at Y237 on very heavy volume. Shares fell early on a Nikkei report the bank plans to raise Y800 billion in capital, mostly through new common stock, but selling on dilution concerns quickly ran its course.

Sony surged 7.1% to Y2,570 on both short-covering and relief that the company's loss forecasts released late Thursday were in line with expectations. "We are upbeat on Sony's strategy to prioritize profits over volumes, but its guidance confirms that conditions are not improving," one CLSA analyst wrote in a client note.

Sanyo Electric jumped 6.4% to Y199 after saying late Thursday it expects to break even on a net basis this fiscal year, after posting a Y93.23 billion net loss in the prior period. The company also expects to post an operating profit of Y2.5 billion. Some analysts called the guidance optimistic, however.

In other cash markets, the Osaka Securities Exchange gained 234.93 points, or 1.4%, to 17,416.52, while the Jasdaq Securities Exchange ended up 3.69 points, or 0.4%, at 1,059.61.

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean shares ended higher Friday led by gains in banks, while the junior Kosdaq market extended its winning streak into a 11th straight session.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, gained 10.78 points, or 0.8%, to end at 1391.73.

Market analysts expect the Kospi to be rangebound until investors have conviction about the economic recovery.

The junior Kosdaq rose as local retail investors continued to show strong appetite for stocks of small and medium-sized firms that posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings or mainly do government-supportive businesses, such as developing green technology, said analysts.

The Kosdaq rose 1.3% to end at 543.54 Friday, hitting a fresh year high.

Foreigners and local retail investors picked up a net KRW15.7 billion and KRW271 billion worth of stocks, while domestic institutions offloaded a net KRW266.9 billion.

Among banks, Shinhan Financial Group climbed 5.5% to KRW31,950 and KB Financial Group rose 4.2% to KRW44,300 after Thursday's sharp correction.

Goldman Sachs also noted still-low valuation of Korean banks even after their recent near 40% rally since lows in March 2009.

STX Enpaco, a producer of diesel engine parts used in shipping vessels, closed at KRW29,900 on its Kospi debut Friday.

Its initial public offering price was KRW13,000 - the top end of an indicative price range of KRW10,000-KRW13,000.

STX Pan Ocean fell 3.3% to KRW11,850 after reporting a net loss of KRW98.6 billion in the first quarter, from a net profit of KRW272.2 billion a year ago.

But sector analysts said the first-quarter results were largely in line with expectations and any stock selling should be short-lived.

HONG KONG

HSBC and ICBC rose sharply on bargain hunting after recent losses, leading Hong Kong's benchmark index higher Friday.

But traders said they expect the market's gains to be short-lived because of continuing concerns about the global economic downturn.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 249.01 points, or 1.5%, to 16,790.70 after trading between 16,736.18 and 16,953.41 during the session.

Turnover totaled HK$58.07 billion, down from HK$63.65 billion Thursday.

HSBC rose 3.1% to HK$64.30, contributing 104 points to the Hang Seng Index's rise, after falling 7.4% in the previous two sessions.

ICBC, China's largest bank by assets, jumped 3.6% to HK$4.65, after shedding 6.5% in the last five sessions.

Chinese developer China Overseas Land fell 0.4% to HK$14.7, after rising 21% since March 31.

CHINA

China's stocks rose, driving the benchmark index to its third straight weekly advance, as lenders gained after the central bank said monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose."

Bank of Communications Ltd., part-owned by HSBC Holdings Plc, rose 1.7% and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. climbed 1.3%. Power producers declined, led by Huaneng Power International Inc.'s 1.4% drop, after the China Securities Journal reported electricity production fell in May.

"Liquidity is still there, so that will help equities to extend their gains for a while," said Zhang Ling, a fund manager at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. in Beijing, which oversees the equivalent of $7.21 billion. "But fundamental improvement lags behind share price gains."

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, added 5.38, or 0.2%, to 2,645.26 at the close, after changing direction at least six times. The index rose 0.8% this week, its third weekly advance.

The CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 0.1% to 2,796.12.

The Shanghai Composite has rallied 45% this year, the world's third-best performer, on optimism China's 4 trillion RMB ($585 billion) in stimulus spending and record bank lending will counter a slump in exports and revive growth. Stocks traded on the index were valued at 28 times earnings last week, the most in a year.

Mixed economic data spurred limited equity gains this week. Spending on factories and properties surged 30.5% in the first four months from a year earlier, money supply grew by a record and new loans exceeded a 5 trillion RMB government target for 2009.

Still, exports plunged a more-than-estimated 22.6% in April on collapsing demand in the US and Europe, growth in industrial production weakened and a decline in power output accelerated, according to government data.

Foreign direct investment dropped 22.5% in April, the commerce ministry said Friday.

Bank lending should be "reasonably paced" to support "relatively fast economic growth," the People's Bank of China said in a statement Thursday. Looser monetary policies have showed results in stimulating the economy, which is expanding "better than expected," the statement said.

Bank of Communications rose 1.7% to 7.17 RMB. Pudong Bank, the Chinese partner of Citigroup Inc., advanced 1.3% to 25.14 RMB.

China's loose monetary policy is creating a property "bubble" similar to one in the US that led to the global financial crisis, Bank of America Corp. said.

Anhui Conch Cement Co., China's biggest cement maker, gained 5.5% to 45.03 RMB, the biggest advance in two weeks. Its Hong Kong-traded stock was raised to "overweight" from "underweight" at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which said Chinese demand will grow by 10% this year.

Huaneng Power lost 1.4% to 7.71 RMB. Huadian Power International Corp., a unit of China's fourth-largest electricity producer, declined 1.6% to 5 RMB.

China's electricity production in early May fell 3.9% from a year earlier, the China Securities Journal reported Friday, citing unidentified sources.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stocks ended 1.96% higher on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street, with KGI Securities surging after saying it would buy the brokerage arm of Taishin Financial.

The main TAIEX share index closed 124.92 points higher at 6,489.09, recouping a near 2% fall in the previous session and hovering around an eight-month high.

Turnover was active at T$164 billion ($5 billion), slightly higher than Thursday's T$162.7 billion.

The TAIEX closed the week 1.4% weaker, but was still up 47% since its low in March, after which global stock markets rebounded on signs that the worst was over for the global economy.

Shares of KGI Securities jumped by their 7% daily limit and Taishin Financial advanced 5.45%, outperforming a 4% rise on the financial sub-index.

KGI Securities will pay T$29 billion for the brokerage arm of Taishin Financial, Taiwan's No.3 financial holding firm, making it the island's second-largest brokerage.

The acquisition would have positive effects on the sector in the longer term as the local brokerage industry has become too fragmented and competitive, analysts said.

The news was also positive for loss-making Taishin, which said it would cut its capital by 6.8% to improve its financial structure.

The firm will hold its first-quarter investor conference later in the day, with investors focusing on its expansion plans in China and possible cooperation with Chinese companies.

In other financial news, local media said on Friday Shin Kong Life, the insurance unit of Shin Kong Financial, would pay T$1.468 billion, more than double the base price, for a piece of land in Taipei's up-and-coming Neihu district.

Shares of Shin Kong rose 4.7% and the construction sub-index, boosted by the deal, jumped 6.18%.

Shares newly added to the MSCI Taiwan Index continued to rally. Real estate developer Farglory and touch-panel maker Wintek both ended limit-up.

In its lastest regular review on Thursday, MSCI added 22 Taiwan stocks to its MSCI Taiwan Index, the biggest increase among other global markets.

Despite the day's gain, the market could be pressured in the short term as Taiwan's main opposition party is set to stage protest against the government on Sunday, which would prompt investors to stay on the sidelines, analysts said.

Shares of TSMC, the world's top contract chip maker, rose 0.55% and the electronics sub-index ended the session 1.55% higher.

A local newspaper cited Chairman Morris Chang as saying orders at the company now stretch to August, and the utilisation rate at its 8-inch wafer facility is now close to 90%.

Shares of portable PC brand Microstar edged up 0.23% after it said it would return to profitability in the current quarter, and expected its notebook shipments to climb 20-30% in 2009 from last year.

THE PHILIPPINES

Philippine share prices on Friday ended the week higher as traders sought to catch the "second wave" of the market's rally.

A block sale of shares of a local mining firm also buoyed the bourse.

The benchmark 30-company Philippine Stock Exchange index soared 46.07 points or 2.0347% to 2,310.30 while the broader all shares surged 22.28 points or 1.5317% to 1,476.86.

Market breadth was positive as gainers trampled losers, 83 to 28, while 35 stocks were unchanged.

All six sub-indices closed in the green led by the mining and oil's nearly six-percent upswing, helped by a foreign investor's acquisition of shares in Philex Mining Corp., the country's largest mining firm.

Volume traded reached 1.415 billion valued at about P2.56 billion.

Investors who were unable to ride in the market's first rally found room to extend the upswing after Thursday's pullback, analysts said.

Telecommunications giant Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., the day's most active, leaped P10 or 0.4348% to P2,310.

Aboitiz-led Union Bank of the Philippines was flat at P25 while Sy-led Banco de Oro Unibank was steady at P32.

Philex climbed P0.50 or 7.9365% to P6.80.

Retail giant SM Prime Holdings Inc. advanced P0.10 or 1.2195% at P8.30.

SINGAPORE

Singapore shares ended higher Friday, tracking the overnight rise on Wall Street, but gains in the local market were capped by selling in commodity shares.

The Straits Times Index opened as much as 2% higher, but gave up most of its gains after palm oil producer Golden Agri Resources announced a 94% drop in first quarter net profit and said that it was considering a rights issue.

The news weighed on other commodity stocks that also ended in negative territory.

The benchmark STI finished 0.8%, or 17.67 points, higher at 2,139.78, with gainers overtaking losers 303 to 277.

Golden Agri Resources fell the most, weighing on the STI. It ended 17.4% lower at S$0.380. Tracking the fall in commodity shares, Olam International slid 6.5% to finish at S$1.73, while Noble Group ended 3.3% lower at S$1.47.

Singapore Airlines, that reported a 92% drop in its fourth quarter net profit late Thursday, ended flat to end at S$11.60 as investors paid more attention to SIA's decision to give its entire entire 81% stake in Singapore Airport Terminal Services to shareholders.

"Advance bookings indicate that the drop in demand for air travel is levelling out. However, the probability of a sustained recovery has been set back by uncertainties arising from the Influenza A [swine flu] epidemic," the company said.

The unexpectedly sharp drop in profits for the final three months of the carrier's fiscal year to S$41.9m (US$28.6m), from S$527.5m in the same period in 2008, came as revenues fell almost 20% to S$3.32bn. Full year earnings to the end of March fell 48% to S$1.06bn as revenues came in almost flat at S$15.99bn.

SIA said fare discounting and a drop in business class bookings - an important source of earnings - would continue to hit revenues. The carrier is benefiting from lower jet fuel costs from a year ago, but must settle fuel hedges contracted at higher prices.

SIA also reported a deterioration in passenger yield, a key measure of earnings performance, which fell to 11.8 Singapore cents per kilometre in the quarter from 12.5 cents a year ago. The passenger load factor in the same period was 71.2%, well below its breakeven point of 77.1%.

Property and bank shares rose on bargain hunting.

CapitaLand Ltd. ended 1.3% higher at S$3.11 and City Development finished at S$7.75, up 3.3%.

Among banks, OCBC gained 3.8% to S$6.88, while DBS rose 1.8% at S$11.20. UOB ended the day 2.3% higher at S$14.36.

THAILAND

In Bangkok the SET rose 1.4% after a 4.7% loss Thursday.

Banks outperformed in Bangkok, with third-ranked Siam Commercial Bank surging 9%, leader Bangkok Bank up 7% and fourth-ranked Kasikornbank up 5.8%.

MALAYSIA

The KL Composite Index closed higher for the first time in five days on Friday, but losing stocks outnumbered risers by a wide margin as investors cashed out their winning bets on penny stocks.

The benchmark index was up 2.22 points to 1,014.21 points. Declining stocks thumped risers 580 to 169 with 170 counters flat. Market turnover was two billion shares worth RM1.7bil.

The FBM Smallcap Index plunged 2.7% to 8,421 points.

Shares in both Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd added 15 sen each, to anchor the benchmark index in positive territory.

AMMB Holdings Bhd's share price gained 4 sen to RM3.18. The bank announced a 17% drop in net income for the three months ended March 31 during the midday trading break.

The Ringgit was little change at 3.5497.

INDONESIA

Indonesia bucked the trend regionally to close 1.9% down at its lowest since 4 May. Its economy grew at its slowest annual pace in five years in the first quarter.

Coal producer PT Bumi Resources dropped 8.2% and energy explorer PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk slumped 25%.

Indonesia fared worst on the week in the Asia Pacific Region, falling 6.0%, followed by Singapore's 4.4% fall and Malaysia's 1.2% loss.

INDIA

India's stocks rose for the 10th week, the longest winning streak in almost three years, as the ruling party said it was confident of retaining power without support from the Communists after voting in general elections closed.

ICICI Bank Ltd., the country's second-largest lender, jumped 7.2%, leading gains among financial stocks after the central bank said it was seeking to restore economic growth. State Bank of India increased 3.6%, while HDFC Bank Ltd., the third-biggest, added 1.8%.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 300.51, or 2.5%, to 12,173.42 at the close in Mumbai. The measure increased 2.6% in the past five days, completing its 10 weeks of gains, the longest stretch since the period ending Sept. 29, 2006.

The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange added 2.2% to 3,671.65. The BSE 200 Index gained 2.1% to 1,437.53. SGX Nifty futures for May delivery advanced 2% to 3,685.

The Sensex's gain Friday reversed a 2.3% drop in the past two days amid concerns that the ruling Indian National Congress party would need to tie up with the Communists to form the next government. Trade Minister Kamal Nath said in an interview in New Delhi Thursday his ruling party would be able to form the next government without that alliance.

The Communists, who want to limit foreign investment and almost brought down the government last year over a nuclear energy deal with the US, are expected to win fewer seats, according to an NDTV 24x7 exit poll. The results of the five- week long election will be released tomorrow.

ICICI Bank gained 7.2% to 574.70 rupees. HDFC Bank rose 1.8% to 1,184.95 rupees. State Bank added 3.6% to 1,313.50, a one-week high.

Reliance Industries Ltd., India's biggest company by market value, increased 2.2% to 1,950.70 rupees. Larsen & Toubro Ltd., the nation's largest engineering company, rose 4.5% to 989 rupees, the most since May 4.

The Reserve Bank of India will seek to unwind monetary measures taken since September after the global financial crisis ends. The central bank has reduced its policy rate six times since mid-October to a record low, predicting Asia's third- biggest economy will expand at the slowest pace in seven years.

It also lowered the amount of money lenders need to keep as reserves, while the government cut tax rates and boosted spending, pumping cash equivalent to $85 billion into the banking system to arrest a slide in growth.

"Once the crisis is behind us, managing inflationary expectations and unwinding of the current expansionary policy will be our task and our challenge," Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said in the southern city of Bangalore Thursday.

AUSTRALIA

A modest recovery in the Australian share market emerged Friday, thanks to a similar bounce on Wall Street and strong gains in resources led by Rio Tinto.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed up 49.8 points or 1.3% at 3773.2 after an early rise to 3791.7. Traders were cautious after Australian and US share markets shied off technical resistance levels this week, partly because of weak US retail trade data.

The local index was down 4.3% for the week, but 21% above the bear market low of 3120.8, struck just nine weeks ago.

May consumer confidence figures are due out of the US later Friday, along with industrial production, capacity utilization, the consumer price index and the Empire State manufacturing index.

Resource heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto accounted for about 40% of Friday's rise in the index, after accounting for about 30% of the Thursday's fall.

BHP rose 3.2% to A$33.34 and Rio Tinto surged 7.4% to A$61.88 on short-covering after Rio said it remained committed to its proposed deal with Chinalco.

Rio's comments dissuaded traders from staying short after selling the company throughout the week, amid speculation of a GBP5 billion rights issue.

The company didn't specifically rule out a rights issue.

Also, Friday, UBS analysts said BHP Billiton could assist in underwriting a substantial rights issue by Rio in exchange for an iron ore joint venture in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

BHP rose 3.2% to A$33.34.

Elsewhere in materials, Nufarm went into a trading halt pending the outcome of a A$300 million capital raising, while Incitec Pivot rose 4.4% to A$2.35.

Energy stocks also saw some recovery, with Santos up 4.8% to A$14.13 after this week's share placement and Woodside up 0.8% to A$43.49 after finding support from bouncing off previous resistance at A$43.00.

Financials were mostly positive - National Australia Bank rose 1.4% to A$21.47 and QBE rose 2.8% to A$20.60, though ANZ fell 0.7% to A$15.27.

Share placements continued to restrain the property trusts, with Stockland down 9.0% after completing the A$1.56 billion institutional component of its equity raising.

Westfield rose just 0.9% to A$9.60 as Stockland proceeded with the A$420 million retail offer.

Defensives in the consumer staples and telco sectors were in demand after the recent shakeout in cyclical stocks, with Woolworths up 1.5% to A$25.84, Foster's up 2.4% to A$5.18 and Telstra up 1.0% to A$3.18.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares ended higher Friday as investor sentiment was bolstered by better offshore leads.

The NZX-50 ended up 0.5% or 15 points at 2790.899, despite worse-than-expected retail sales data.

Earlier Friday Statistics New Zealand said the volume of seasonally adjusted real retail sales in the three months ended March 31 declined a record 2.9% from the fourth quarter when it fell a revised 0.7%. Economists had been expecting a 1.7% decline.

Discount retailer The Warehouse shed 1.6% to NZ$3.69, likely also weighed down by Woolworths signaling a cooling of interest in a possible takeover.

Earlier Friday the Sydney Morning Herald reported that the Australia-based Woolworths is limiting its search for overseas retail acquisitions to supermarkets.

In the other direction, the index was bolstered by construction company Fletcher Building, which gained 1.1% to NZ$6.63. The stock is expected to benefit as data begins to point to a recovery in New Zealand's residential housing sector.

Bellwether Telecom gained 0.4% to NZ$2.60. Brokers have said that investors are turning to the stock as an alternative in the current low interest rate environment.

Kiwi Income Property Trust gained 1.1% to NZ$0.94.

Earlier Friday the company reported a heavy net loss for the year to March 31 due to substantial unrealized property write-downs but said its underlying operating performance was solid.

Power company TrustPower ended up 0.5% to NZ$7.60 after reporting a higher full year net profit as operating revenues grew as a result of higher energy prices. 
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesCommodity prices surged to their highest level in six months, boosted by investors betting on economic "green shoots", but the asset class finished the week on a sharply lower note under the weight of some profit taking and concerns that prices had moved ahead of their fundamentals.

The S&P GSCI commodity index rose to 419.9 points, its highest level since November, but on Friday it fell back to 404 points, losing 1.7% over the week.

The retreat was led by crude oil prices. Nymex June West Texas Intermediate rose during the week to a six-month high of $60.08 a barrel, but on Friday moved back to $57.10, down 2.6% on the week.

The drop came after Opec, the oil cartel, warned on Wednesday that oil prices were being driven higher by sentiment, rather than an improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals.

"Considerable risks remain as oil market fundamentals are far from balanced due to the persistent contraction in demand and growing supply overhang," Opec said.

Oil traders agreed with Opec's comments, warning that a flow of speculative money was pushing oil prices higher. The weakness of the US Dollar, which hit its lowest level against a basket of currencies since January, also helped to boost energy and other commodities prices in the early part of the week.

The cost of freight soared over the week, with the Baltic Dry Index up 14.9% to a 2009 high of 2,544 points, boosted by signs of record Chinese imports of dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and foodstuffs.

Agricultural commodities rose after the US Department of Agriculture warned of lower than expected inventories for corn and soyabeans. CBOT corn, which hit a six-month high Thursday of $4.31 a bushel, rose 2.5% on the week to $4.25 a bushel.

ICE July sugar hit a three-year high of 16.03 cents per pound, but ended the week much lower, at 15.03 cents, down 1.6%.

The weakness of the US Dollar supported precious metals prices. Spot gold in London rose to a seven-week high of $930 a troy ounce, up 1.6% on week. Silver closed the week just above the $14.0 an ounce, rising 0.25%.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Yen advanced and the Dollar consolidated after recent losses as investors this week questioned the latest rise in risk appetite.

Both currencies have come under pressure in the past month as equity markets rallied on hopes that the worst of the global downturn was over.

This tempered haven demand for both the Dollar and the Yen.

But economic figures this week triggered a reassessment of the rise in investor confidence. Chinese industrial production and US retail sales were both weaker than expected and there was a sharp slump in German gross domestic product for the first quarter.

Over the week, the Dollar rose 0.4% to $1.3586 against the Euro, gained 0.1% to $1.5240 against the pound and was 0.1% up against the Swiss franc at SFr1.1059.

The Dollar fared better against commodity-linked currencies. It rose 1.7% to $0.7562 against the Australian Dollar, climbed 1.6% to C$1.1682 against the Canadian Dollar and gained 2.3% to $0.5897 against the New Zealand Dollar.

The Yen put in a stronger performance, and rose 3.3% to Y95.26 against the Dollar on the week.

Analysts said a main force behind the Yen's strength was the tightening of yield differentials between US and Japanese government bonds.

As the yield spread between US 10-year Treasuries and JGBs dropped from a peak of 193 basis points at the end of last week to 167bp Thursday, the Yen advanced.

Data released from Japan revealed that investment flows had turned favourable for the Yen in April, which showed that heavy buying of foreign securities by Japanese investors had dried up.

After average net purchases of foreign bonds and equities of Y2,829bn per month in the first quarter, Japanese investors bought just Y502bn last month. And net foreign purchases of Japanese equities turned positive for first time since June 2008.

Over the week, the Yen rose 3.6% to Y129.39 against the Euro, climbed 4.7% to Y72.02 against the Australian Dollar and gained 3.2% to Y145.16 against the pound.

The greenback strengthened against 13 of the 16 most trading currencies, falling only against the Taiwanese Dollar, South Korean Won and as mentioned, the Japanese Yen.

Meanwhile, the pound rose to a four-month high against the Dollar on Tuesday after manufacturing and retail sales figures that were better than expected, which raised hopes that the UK economy was reaching the bottom of the recession.

But the pound was undermined after the Bank of England delivered a downbeat assessment of a UK economy "vulnerable to further shocks" on Wednesday.

Over the week, the pound rose 0.3% to £0.8905 against the Euro.

South Africa's Rand extended its losses against the Dollar on Friday, falling nearly 3% partly as weak Euro zone economic data fuelled a new wave of risk aversion.

The Rand traded 2.45% weaker at 8.73 against the Dollar after earlier tumbling to 8.78 compared to Thursday's New York close at 8.5215.

The Canadian Dollar weakened against the US Dollar overnight but recouped those losses as Toronto 's main stock index edged higher. However, gains are being capped as oil prices fall below $58 a barrel.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollar remains generally unchanged against the US Dollar. Overnight, the Aussie and the Kiwi strengthened against the greenback, helped by better risk appetite as regional stock markets firmed. Those gains were somewhat lost as commodity prices fell.

As always, here in China and the RMB; the Dollar closed at CNY6.8258, up from Thursday's close of CNY6.8250. It traded between CNY6.8243 and CNY6.8267.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsForeign direct investment in China fell for a seventh month from a year earlier as companies cut spending to weather the world's worst financial crisis since World War II.

Investment dropped 22.5% to $5.89 billion in April, the commerce ministry said at a briefing in Beijing Friday. That compares with a 9.5% decline in March. For the first four months of this year, spending fell 21% to $27.67 billion.

Premier Wen Jiabao's 4 trillion RMB ($586 billion) stimulus plan may counter weaker investment by Chinese and foreign companies and revive the world's third-biggest economy. Spending on factories and property surged 30.5% in the first four months and new lending climbed to a record, data this week showed.

Businesses that are partly or entirely foreign owned account for 30% of industrial output, 55% of trade and 11% of urban jobs, according to the commerce ministry.

Besides the credit crunch, investors' reduced expectations for the RMB to appreciate are discouraging inflows of capital, but analysts expect smaller but sizable foreign direct investment inflows in 2009, with a continued rise in Chinese investment abroad.

The government has stalled gains by the currency against the Dollar since July last year, aiding exporters of toys, clothes and electronics after global demand collapsed.

China recorded a 40.6% drop in new registrations by foreign companies in the first quarter from a year earlier, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce said in a report released this week.

Not all companies are holding back on investment as the government spurs demand by providing subsidies for purchases of vehicles and home appliances.

Volkswagen AG, the biggest overseas carmaker in China, and its local partner, China FAW Group Corp., will invest 550 million Euros ($737 million) expanding capacity at a plant in western Chengdu city, the Chinese automaker said May 8. China's vehicle sales have topped those in the US this year.

*********************************

China may "fine-tune" monetary and fiscal policies as it seeks to spark a revival in the world's third-biggest economy, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said.

"We take one step and then think about the next step," Zhou said in an interview on the sidelines of a financial forum in Shanghai Friday.

The central bank dropped loan quotas in November to support the nation's 4 trillion RMB ($586 billion) stimulus plan, triggering an explosion in credit, which has added to the risk of bad loans and asset bubbles. Banks face "significant" pressure on profits this year

Economic conditions are still shaky, especially trade, so I don't expect a marked change in policy although concerns over the quality of lending have definitely increased; some new controls could be imposed as early as the third quarter.

Zhou said the slower pace didn't reflect a change in monetary policy, adding that banks "scrambled" to roll out loans at the end of the first quarter, including 600 billion RMB to 700 billion RMB in the final two days of March.

People "should look at the average" for lending across months, he added without elaborating.

This year's total may top 8 trillion RMB, Bank of China Chairman Xiao Gang said at Friday's conference. That compares with the government's targeted minimum of 5 trillion RMB, which has already been surpassed.

Lenders reported slower profit growth or falling earnings in the first quarter. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world's largest lender by market value, said profit increased 6.2%, after climbing 77% a year earlier.

The central bank has kept interest rates and banks' reserve requirements unchanged this year after cutting them in the final four months of 2008 as the global financial crisis deepened.

Zhou commented Friday on past steps to counter the global credit crunch.

"After the financial crisis broke out in September, we were most worried about the negative impact causing too sharp a decline in economic growth, especially in exports, and the consequences of that," he said. "So the priority was to prevent an abrupt decline."

While overseas shipments have fallen for the past six months, the jump in loans and the stimulus package have triggered a surge in investment.

The key one-year lending rate is 5.31% and the reserve requirement, the proportion of money that lenders are required to park with the central bank, is 15.5% for big banks and 13.5% for smaller ones.

*********************************

A group of Republican and Democratic lawmakers will on Wednesday revive a bill that threatens to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to punish the country for what they call "currency manipulation".

Highlighting the protectionist sentiment within Congress, the bill would let companies apply for tariffs on imports from countries deemed to be deliberately undervaluing their currencies to be more competitive. China is its main target.

"By illegally subsidising its exports through the undervaluation of its currency by 30% or more, China distorts the gains from trade, creates barriers to free and fair trade, harms US industries and has destroyed millions of US jobs," those sponsoring the bill said in a statement.

Their move comes as countries across the world consider protectionist trade rules in the face of recession. Measures such as anti-dumping investigations rose 18.8% in the first quarter of this year against the same period in 2008, according to research by Chad Bown at the Brookings Institution, with China's exporters the target in two thirds of those cases.

In the US there have been several attempts in the past four years to introduce a currency manipulation bill, none of which has gained real traction. On the campaign trail, Barack Obama suggested China was a currency manipulator, but his administration has since backed away from confrontation over the issue.

Nonetheless, a group of lawmakers from manufacturing-dominated states are determined to give it another try and some analysts think the US recession could help build support this time. The charge in the Senate will be led by Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat from Michigan, and Jim Bunning, a Republican from Kentucky. In the House, it will be pushed by Tim Ryan, a Democrat from Ohio, and Tim Murphy, a Republican from Pennsylvania.

They will be joined at the bill's launch by a coalition of labour and business leaders who feel they have been hurt by the value of the RMB.

The US is not alone in facing rising protectionist sentiment. Three-quarters of the new anti-dumping investigations launched this year were by developing countries - half by India and Argentina alone.

The Treasury is legally obliged to determine every six months whether any country is manipulating its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage. Last month the administration disappointed manufacturers and trade groups by deciding not to pick a fight with China, a crucial US creditor, saying instead it had "shown great commitment to playing a stabilising role in the system".

All I can say on this topic is that if the US still think that they can 'bully China in matters relating to the RMB, then they have learned nothing at all over the past 3 decades!

*********************************

Of all the Chinese dealmakers hired by international investment banks over the past decade Fang Fenglei is the only one who is not fluent in English and does not have a western degree.

In spite of this fact, or possibly because of it, he is by far the most nimble navigator in the treacherous territory where global finance and Chinese politics meet.

Mr Fang came under the spotlight on Wednesday when the volume of share dealing in China Construction Bank soared, fuelling suspicions that some buyers - including Hopu Investment Management, a private equity group run by Mr Fang - of Bank of America's $7.3bn sell-down had flipped their holdings to pocket huge gains.

Fenglei, his given name, means "wind and thunder" and he is regarded as the man responsible for convincing his former boss and mentor Wang Qishan (now China's vice-premier in charge of the economy) to adopt the American investment banking model and establish China International Capital Corporation, a joint venture with Morgan Stanley, in 1995.

The son of a former peasant farmer who rose to a senior administrative post in the People's Liberation Army, Mr Fang was sent at the tender age of 16 to the harsh Inner Mongolian countryside in 1968 during China's Cultural Revolution.

Three years later he joined the army and in the late 1970s was able to enrol in Zhongshan University in Guangdong province before being assigned to a government job in the Economy and Trade Bureau in the poor central province of Henan. That was where he met Mr Wang, who sent him to study the US financial system.

As deputy chief executive of CICC, Mr Fang served as eyes and ears for Mr Wang. But people familiar with the situation say he soon fell out with senior partners at Morgan Stanley.

After stints in charge of the Hong Kong investment banking arms of Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Mr Fang was once again at the forefront of innovation in Chinese finance when he struck a ground-breaking deal that opened the door for Goldman Sachs to enter China.

Details of the complicated 2004 deal remain a closely-guarded secret, but what is known is that after bailing out a failed securities firm in which Mr Fang was involved, Goldman helped him to establish a securities joint venture in which Goldman secured an unprecedented measure of control.

That transaction sealed Mr Fang's reputation as the ultimate dealmaker. With his help Goldman soon eclipsed all other foreign players in the Chinese investment banking world, including Morgan Stanley, which was still struggling with its investment in CICC.

But in 2007, as the Chinese government began promoting the development of homegrown private equity funds, Mr Fang saw his next big chance and Goldman's luck ran out.

After much wrangling and negotiation, Mr Fang set up Hopu Investment Management with Dominic Ho, former head of KPMG China, and Richard Ong, the former senior Goldman banker. In spite of Mr Fang's decision to leave Goldman, Hopu's first $2.5bn fund counted Goldman and Singapore's Temasek as its cornerstone investors.

This coup confirmed Mr Fang as the slickest operator in China, though it remains unclear how much of his dealings are done on behalf of the government and/or senior individuals within it.

Bankers who have dealt with Mr Fang and his colleagues reserve less praise for the description of Hopu as a private equity fund.

It was believed the fund would primarily invest in local companies. But Hopu's two biggest deals to date involved leading Chinese lenders, including this week's Bank of America trade.

In January the fund acquired about a third of the $2.3bn stake in Bank of China sold by Royal Bank of Scotland at HK$1.71 a piece. But bankers in Hong Kong told the FT that Hopu exited the Bank of China stock a few weeks later when the shares hit HK$2.40.

Meanwhile, Hopu and Mr Fang declined to comment on the matter. "Our partners refuse to talk to the public," a Hopu representative said on Wednesday.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 As mentioned at the start of this Newsletter, next week is going to be critical in terms of whether markets continue their declines, or enter a period of consolidation.

I still believe that it will be the former although I am starting to notice myself a few key areas that are offering hints that we could be in for a stagnant summer in terms of market movement.

Next week will be all about 'data' and how markets react. Investors will get data on housing sales on Monday, on housing construction a day later and on regional manufacturing on Thursday.

I actually see the housing figures probably going to come out to the upside of expectations (that word again) and then probably be revised around the same time in June!  Manufacturing though, I cannot for the life of me see how they can be positive figures in any way, shape or form.

Germany's ZEW economic sentiment survey will top a clutch of European data that should also rate attention as markets try to gauge the health of the Euro-zone economy and whether the European Central Bank will need to do more to boost growth.

Next week's economic calendar is on the light side for Japanese releases but we will have an interest rate decision on Thursday and the BOJ press conference early Friday morning.

In Australia RBA Governor Stevens will speak Monday night ahead of the monetary policy meeting minutes being released.

All told Ladies and Gentlemen, not much to get too excited about next week but as I say, it will in my opinion be a week where we get a really clear picture of where markets are headed - for that correction I have been mentioning for weeks or, a 2-3 month flat and consolidating Summer.
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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