Financial Page International

17 April 2010 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
Volcanic ash; the largest investment bank in the world accused of fraud and the first ever live television debate between two warring 'potential' UK Prime-Ministers-in-waiting.
 
Add to this late on Friday Morgan Stanley warning that Germany could withdraw from the Eurozone as the fallout from the Greek debt bailout continues; pretty heady stuff Ladies & Gentlemen.
 
I guess to start with, I need to explain a little more about where Europe is in relation to Greece at the moment and how what happens in Greece is providing a 'blueprint' potentially for Portugal.
 
It might appear 'all Greek to me' but this week has seen Portugal get an early warning to enable it to stave off the same problems that Greece has recently encountered.
 
The European Commission said in a report released Wednesday that Portugal may need to enforce additional budget cuts this year to achieve its deficit-reduction target, warning that the country's economic growth and government revenues for the year could turn out to be lower than expected.
 
"Achieving the ambitious fiscal consolidation path may require efforts beyond those outlined in the programme," the European Union's executive warned in the report released Tuesday.
 
"First, the outlined revenue performance and expenditure containment may be difficult to attain on the basis of the announced measures, already in 2010," the report said. "There is the risk that a lower-than-assumed GDP growth would dampen revenue growth and jeopardize the fall in the expenditure-to-GDP ratio."
 
Separately, EU Economy Commissioner Olli Rehn said while addressing a press conference in Brussels that Portugal may have to take additional cost-cutting measures this year to reduce its budget deficit if economic conditions worsened.
 
"The Portuguese stability programme is ambitious and complete for the years 2011 to 2013, but additional measures may be needed, especially for this year, if risks to the macroeconomic and fiscal developments materialize," Commissioner Rehn said.
 
Portugal's budget deficit widened sharply from 2.8% in 2008 to 9.3% last year, mainly because of heavy government spending aimed at stimulating the country's economy. The European Union has given Portugal until 2013 to bring the country's budget deficit to the permitted level, as all EU member states are required to keep their budget deficits to 3% of GDP or under.
 
The European Commission's report comes a month after Portugal's parliament approved a budget proposal presented by the minority socialist government for the year 2010, endorsing the austerity measures proposed in the budget to bring down the country's massive deficit.
 
Despite the passing of the austerity budget, credit ratings agency Fitch downgraded Portugal's credit rating from AA to AA- over concerns regarding the EU-member country's high levels of debt.
 
The austerity measures proposed in the budget are aimed at bringing down the country's massive budget deficit to the 3% limit permitted for countries in the European Union. The measures proposed in the 2010 budget are expected to reduce Portugal's budget deficit from the 9.3% of GDP in 2009 to 8.3% of GDP this year.
 
The parliamentary approval of the budget came amidst concerns that that Portugal could run into the same trouble as Greece, which is currently staggering under a €300-billion debt and a budget deficit of more than 12% of national output last year.
 
With the deficit equal to 12.7% of GDP, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's government has been under immense pressure from the European Union to take immediate steps to address the crisis and bring the country's budget deficit to permitted EU level.

 
In January this year, the Greek government announced a stability program, which it says will help the country reduce the budget gap to 2.8% of GDP in 2012 from the current 12.7%. In addition, Greece announced plans last month to freeze pensions, slash civil service bonuses and raise sales tax on fuel, tobacco and alcohol as part of its austerity measures.
 
The new package of public-sector pay-cuts and tax hikes, approved at a Cabinet meeting in Athens on 3rd March, envisages an extra €4.8-billion ($6.6 billion) saving, equivalent to two% of the gross domestic product.
 
The new austerity measures came after Prime Minister Papendrou was left with no other option but to adopt cost cutting measures for the third time in as many months to convince European allies and investors that it can bring under control the region's biggest budget gap. However, the move has prompted workers unions to call a series of industrial actions.
 
Despite the existing financial problems, Greece managed to raise 1.56 billion Euros ($2 billion) through the sale of its high-yielding short-term treasury bills in a debt auction held Tuesday, just days after the Eurozone countries agreed to provide Athens with a financial safety net if required.
 
Finance Ministers of the 16-nation Eurozone agreed last Sunday to provide up to 30 billion Euros (roughly $41 billion) in emergency loans at below-market interest rates to the debt-stricken Greece if it requires them. The package also involves the International Monetary Fund, which will make a further 10 billion Euros (roughly $14 billion) available to Athens this year.
 
Though Greece's debt auction on Tuesday received overwhelming response from investors, the interest rate offered for the bonds were steeply higher when compared to that of the treasury bills sold during Greece's previous short-term debt auction in January.
 
The Greek government has offered a 4.85% for the 52-week bills and 4.55% for the 26-week bills sold in Tuesday's debt auction. In comparison, the 12-month treasury bills sold in January carried an interest rate of 2.2%, while the 6-months bonds were offered 1.38%.
 
The Greek government had originally planned to raise €1.2 billion in debut auction, divided equally between 52-week and 26-week Treasury bills. Though bids for 52-week bills reached €3.9 billion and the 26-week bills attracted bids totaling €4.6 billion, Greece's Public Debt Management Agency said later that it ultimately sold €780 million of bills in each auction.
 
Earlier, the Greek government managed to sell 10-year bonds worth 5 billion Euros in March at a rate of 6.3%, which is several points higher than that paid by Germany on its benchmark 10-year bonds. But Greece is expected to face another crunch situation in April and May, when the country faces more than 20 billion Euros in debt redemption.
 
Greece capitulated to market pressure on Thursday and took an important step towards a bail-out from its Eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund as it formally sought "consultations" over a €30bn-plus ($40bn, £26bn) loan package to stave off default.
 
In a letter to the European Commission, Greece's finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, said Athens wanted to discuss "a multi-year economic policy programme with the Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund".
 
The announcement ended weeks of speculation that the IMF will be directly involved in the Greek rescue, during which the fund has held back from commenting for fear of getting ahead of a formal request from Athens.
 
The letter, which would help set in motion the first bail-out of a Eurozone country by the IMF, marks a key step towards Greece drawing down funds from its Eurozone partners and the Washington-based body.
 
Until now Athens has bet that the promise of financial assistance would be enough to reduce its borrowing costs and allow it to roll over its sovereign debt and continue to pay its bills. But, while Mr Papaconstantinou was careful to say Athens had not yet decided to seek help, his letter to Brussels begins a formal process that is likely to be difficult to end.
 
The move came as yields on 10-year Greek bonds neared a record high. Spreads over German bunds reached 426 basis points before falling back to around 400 after the announcement was made.
 
Mr Papaconstantinou's letter said Greece was not yet committed to activating the package - which would come with tough conditions that are likely to include public sector job cuts and stringent pension reform.
 
"The programme would be supported by financial aid from the Eurozone countries and the IMF - if the Greek authorities decide to ask for such aid," Mr Papaconstantinou said.
 
But analysts in Athens said the request for talks "amounts to a done deal".
 
"Resorting to the EU-IMF mechanism is irreversible at this point. Otherwise we may see tremendous pressure on spreads," said a top economist.
 
Experts warned that the Eurozone and the IMF may end up jostling for primacy in controlling the rescue.
 
Although the IMF has been involved in co-financed rescue packages before, as in Latvia and Hungary, it was clear that the fund took the lead role in setting conditions and disbursing tranches of money.
 
The IMF would be expected to make available another €10-15bn as a stand-by loan on top of the €30bn available from Eurozone member-states.
 
If Greece applies for the package it would be able to cover its borrowing requirement for the rest of the year, analysts said.
 
So all things considered, Greece is not yet out of the woods and is affecting Germany in a big way it seems.
 
Germany might consider exiting Europe's current monetary union to create a smaller bloc as the Greek crisis threatens to turn the Euro area into a region of "fiscal profligacy," Morgan Stanley said.
 
Greek rescue measures "set a bad precedent for other Euro- area member states and make it more likely that the Euro area degenerates into a zone of fiscal profligacy, currency weakness and higher inflationary pressures over time," said Joachim Fels, co-chief global economist at Morgan Stanley in London, in an April 14 note. "If so, countries with a high preference for price stability, such as Germany, might conclude that they would be better off with a harder but smaller currency union."
 
European Union leaders on April 11 offered debt-stricken Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion Euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates as they try to end its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the Euro. The European Central Bank also helped Greece by abandoning a plan to revert to old collateral rules that may have rendered its government bonds ineligible at money market operations.
 
"The lesson for other Euro area members from the Greek bail-out package is that no matter how badly you violate the Stability and Growth Pact guidelines, financial help will be forthcoming, if push comes to shove," Fels said. "This introduces a serious moral hazard problem into the European equation. Fiscal slippage in other countries has now become more rather than less likely."
 
Fels stressed that a Euro breakup isn't Morgan Stanley's "main scenario," though the risk is "far from negligible."
 
The European Union's rescue package has failed to push down the interest rates on Greek debt as the government struggles to convince investors it can cut its deficit, the highest in the Euro's history, below the European Union's 3% limit by 2012. The shortfall was 12.9% last year.
 
Spanish Finance Minister Elena Salgado, who is hosting a meeting of EU counterparts in Madrid, said she doesn't expect Greece to trigger the rescue Friday.
 
The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds over similar-maturity German bunds stood at 402 basis points Thursday compared with a record 442 basis points last week.
 
Somehow I cannot imagine Germany stepping out of the European Monetary Union - for the moment, there is relative safety in numbers believe it or not.
 
I cannot see Germany opting for a smaller group of countries with which to form a mutual currency. I liken it to a party where if you are stuck in a corner with say, the French; if you've only got the Dutch alongside you, you have to have dialogue otherwise you'd appear rude.
 
But if you've got the Greeks and the Spanish at the party also, there is every reason to go off and talk to someone else and leave the French and Dutch to talk amongst themselves about the latest strike, the working-week and the current state of the Dutch football team!
 
Not the greatest analogy maybe, but I think you get my drift!
 
On to the numbers on the boards for the week that was:    
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummaryThe optimism on Wall Street was punctured Friday with US stock prices falling sharply after the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Goldman Sachs with fraud.
 
The move interrupted the markets' six-day winning streak and overshadowed some of the week's strong corporate earnings results.
 
Shares in Goldman Sachs dived 12.8% to $160.70. The fraud charges concern the packaging and selling of collateralised debt obligations. The bank is charged with not disclosing the role Paulson & Co, a hedge fund, played in a transaction.
 
After the close, the S&P 500 was down 1.6% at 1,192.13, leaving it 0.19% lower during the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.1% to 11,018.66, leaving it up 0.2% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite was 1.4% lower at 2,481.26, but up 1.1% for the week.
 
Bank of America fell 5.5% to $18.41 Thursday even as it was reporting better first-quarter earnings than expected.
 
The results were boosted by a strong performance by its investment banking division that is largely made up of the Merrill Lynch business it bought at the height of the financial crisis.
 
Net income was 28 cents per share, compared with consensus analyst estimates of 9 cents per share.
 
JPMorgan was 0.9% lower on the week to $45.55 after reporting earnings per share of 74 cents, more than double the same period last year, and beating expectations of 64 cents per share.
 
Citigroup fell 5.2% to $4.56 but rose 0.2% for the week. The stock broke the key $5 mark on Thursday for the first time since October.
 
Moody's, the agency that rates corporates and structured derivative transactions, declined 7.6% Thursday to $27.41 as news of the legal action against Goldman emerged.
 
Google lost 7.6% to $550.15 after reporting quarterly earnings after Thursday's close that fell short of some "whisper" numbers among traders but beat consensus analyst estimates.
 
It posted net income of $1.96bn, or $6.06 per share, up from $1.42bn, or $4.49 per share, the year before.
 
General Electric was 2.7% lower at $18.97 as the infrastructure, finance and media conglomerate reported disappointing first-quarter revenues.
 
However, earnings at GE were significantly higher than expected at 21 cents per share, topping consensus analyst estimates of 16 cents per share.
 
The airline sector was lower across the board Thursday on worries about air traffic disruption in Europe resulting from the eruption of a volcano in Iceland.
 
The market was unimpressed with fresh merger talks between Continental and United Airlines.
 
Continental Airlines fell 3.3% to $22.98, Delta Air Lines lost 3.6% to $13.87 and UAL Corp, parent of United Airlines, declined 3% to $22.83.
 
As the earnings season kicked into full swing this week, a number of blue-chip corporates reported strong first-quarter results.
 
Package delivery group UPS added 5.9% to $68.21 on the week as it reported earnings of 71 cents per share on Thursday, up from 52 cents last year and above consensus analyst expectations of 57 cents.
 
Yum Brands rallied 4.9% to $42.70 on the week after the restaurant chain operator, which owns KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut, said on Wednesday that profit in the quarter had risen 11%, boosted by strong sales in China.  

European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks plummeted, erasing a weekly advance for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as US regulators sued Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for fraud and a gauge of consumer confidence unexpectedly declined.
 
Deutsche Bank AG fell the most in nine months, leading European financial shares 2.7% lower. Xstrata Plc, the world's fourth-largest copper producer, dropped 4.4% as China acted to cool real-estate speculation. Air France-KLM Group slid the most in two months as a cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano forced the cancellation of flights in northern Europe for a second day.
 
The Stoxx 600 plunged 1.6% to 267.92, the biggest drop since Feb. 25, bringing this week's drop to 0.7%. The gauge had been heading for a seventh straight weekly increase until the Securities and Exchange Commission said Goldman Sachs misstated and omitted key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the US housing market was beginning to falter.
 
The Stoxx 600 has surged 5.5% in 2010 as the European Union agreed a $61 billion aid package to help Greece tackle the region's biggest budget deficit and the US Federal Reserve pledged to maintain record-low interest rates for an extended period to secure the economic recovery.
 
EU finance ministers meeting Friday in Madrid said Greece doesn't have an immediate plan to trigger the rescue package even as the country's bond yields rose to the highest since before the bailout plan was announced.
 
Benchmark stock indexes fell in all 18 western European markets, except Iceland (how ironic is that, given the volcanic ash it 'gifted' to the rest of Europe!). The UK's FTSE 100 dropped 1.4%, Germany's DAX slid 1.8% and France's CAC 40 plunged 1.9%. Greece's ASE Index sank 1.6%. 
 
GERMANY
 
German stocks declined the most in two months, with the benchmark DAX Index erasing its weekly gain, as banks tumbled after the US Securities and Exchange Commission sued Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
 
Deutsche Bank AG slid 7.3% as the SEC accused Goldman Sachs of defrauding investors. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's second-biggest airline, lost 4.1% after a cloud of ash from a volcano in Iceland shut airports in northern Europe for a second day. ThyssenKrupp AG and Salzgitter AG, Germany's largest steelmakers, followed European basic-resource shares lower.
 
The DAX fell 1.8% to 6,180.90 in Frankfurt, the biggest drop since Feb. 5 and bringing the weekly loss to 1.1%. The measure climbed for six straight weeks previously as the European Union agreed on a contingency rescue package to help Greece reduce Europe's biggest budget deficit and the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates low for an extended period. The broader HDAX Index slid 1.7% Friday.
 
Deutsche Bank, the country's largest, sank 7.3% to 55.99 Euros, the steepest decline since July 2009. Commerzbank AG retreated 2.9% to 6.37 Euros. The SEC accused Goldman Sachs and one of its vice presidents of defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages.
 
Lufthansa tumbled 4.1% to 12.74 Euros, the first retreat in three days, as the ash cloud grounded thousands of flights across Europe. Air Berlin Plc, Europe's third-biggest discount carrier, decreased 2.5% to 4.22 Euros.
 
Fraport AG lost 2.7% to 40.34 Euros. The company's Frankfurt airport was closed this morning and will remain closed for an undetermined period, an official at Germany's DFS air traffic control agency said.
 
As many as 15,000 flights may be lost in the region Friday, or about half the usual timetable, according to Brian Flynn, operations chief at Eurocontrol, which oversees the region's flight paths. That's up from 8,000 cancellations Thursday.
 
Salzgitter declined 2.8% to 67.01 Euros, while ThyssenKrupp AG lost 2.1% to 25.99 Euros. European basic- resource shares fell 3.4%, the worst performance among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index Friday.
 
Continental AG increased 1.4% to 39.40 Euros, the highest close in more than two months. Europe's second-largest auto-parts maker was rated "buy" in new coverage at UBS AG, which said "the recovery in automotive production combined with good exposure to attractive segments could lead to 10% growth in automotive this year."
 
HeidelbergCement AG rose 1.2% to 45.46 Euros, the highest close since January, as investors speculated the world's third-biggest cement maker will join the DAX as early as June.
 
German think tanks on Thursday raised their 2010 growth outlook for the economy saying that fiscal policies will continue to provide perceptible stimulation this year.
 
In a joint forecast, leading think tanks of the country said Germany's real gross domestic product should increase 1.5% during the course of this year. It compares with an earlier forecast of 1.2%. In the coming year, real GDP will increase by 1.4%. The recovery will continue to be driven by exports, which had experienced an unexpectedly strong collapse in the recession.
 
After 2011, the German economic recovery is expected to continue at a slightly accelerated pace. Nevertheless, after the strong collapse last year, real GDP will not reach the level of 2008 until 2013, they said.
 
Unemployment will nevertheless decrease slightly, since the labor force potential is declining as a result of demographic developments. For 2011, stagnation in employment and a further decrease of unemployment is anticipated. The unemployment rate should fall from 8.1% in 2010 to 7.9% in 2011.
 
Economic research institutes foresee moderate in consumer prices. The inflation rate is forecast to be at 0.9% this year and may move to 1% in the coming year.
 
Germany's public deficit is forecast to be at 4.9% of GDP this year. In the coming year, a decline to 4.2% is foreseen.
 
Germany's number of business insolvencies increased 4.2% year-on-year in January, the Federal Statistical Office said on Wednesday. In December, the business insolvencies were up 15.5%.
 
German insolvency courts reported 2,547 business insolvencies in January, the statistical office said.
 
Meanwhile, the consumer insolvencies increased 4.6% on an annual basis to 8,265 in January. At the same time, total insolvencies of other private debtors and of estates grew 2.8% to 13,020 insolvencies.
 
Tuesday, Germany's Federal Statistical Office announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 1.1% on an annual basis in March, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and faster than the 0.6% growth in February. The CPI was up 0.5% a year ago.
 
Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose 0.1% in March, while clothing and footwear prices climbed 0.9%. Transport charges were up 5.4%.
 
The CPI monthly inflation for March was confirmed at 0.5%, after a 0.4% rise in February.
 
Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP rose 1.2% year-on-year in March, revised from 1.3% growth estimated initially. Month-on-month, the HICP rose 0.6%, unrevised from the preliminary estimate published on March 29.
 
They also announced that the wholesale price index or WPI rose 4.3% on an annual basis in March, faster than the 2.1% growth in the previous month. Economists expected an increase of 3.6%.
 
On a monthly basis, the WPI increased 1.3% in March, accelerating from 0.1% rise in the preceding month. Economists were looking for an increase of 0.5%. 
 
FRANCE
 
France's CAC 40 Index tumbled 79.02, or 1.9%, to 3,986.63 in Paris, led by a retreat in bank shares after the US Securities and Exchange Commission sued Goldman Sachs Group Inc for fraud. The SBF 120 Index slid 1.9% to 2,934.36.
 
BNP Paribas SA dropped 3.8% to 55.35 Euros. Credit Agricole SA declined 3.5% to 13.20 Euros and Societe Generale SA declined 2.8% to 45.21 Euros.
 
Air France-KLM Group lost 44 cents, or 3.4%, to 12.44 Euros after Europe's biggest carrier canceled all flights in and out of Paris airports this morning and forecast major disruptions after a cloud of volcanic ash from Iceland grounded planes.
 
Bourbon lost 2.9% to 32.11 Euros after Axa Group's Matignon Developpement sold a stake in the company, according to the terms of the deal obtained by Bloomberg News.
 
UBS AG placed 1.04 million Bourbon shares via an accelerated bookbuild at 32 Euros apiece.
 
Carrefour SA rallied 52 cents, or 1.4%, to 38.39 Euros. Europe's biggest retailer reported a 5.5% increase in first-quarter sales on growth in France, Asia and Latin America, and said it plans to buy back its own shares for the first time since 2007.
 
Dassault Systemes rose 47.5 cents, or 1%, to 47.28 Euros as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added the shares to its "conviction buy" list.
 
Suez Environnement fell 59 cents, or 3.4%, to 16.58 Euros as Deutsche Bank AG lowered its recommendation for Europe's second-largest water company to "hold" from "buy."
 
Veolia Environnement dropped 74 cents, or 2.8%, to 25.46 Euros. The company said Qatari Diar has acquired a 5% stake and will have a representative on the board of directors.
 
Higher energy prices drove French inflation at a slightly faster than expected pace in March, official figures showed Tuesday.
 
The consumer price index rose 1.6% year-on-year in March, faster than 1.3% recorded in February, statistical office Insee said. Economists had forecast a rate of 1.5%. On a monthly basis, the CPI grew 0.5%.
 
The CPI without tobacco increased 0.5% month-on-month, taking the annual rise to 1.5%. Adjusted for seasonal variations, the CPI went up by 0.2% month-on-month and 1.6% over the previous year.
 
Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices rose 1.7% annually in March, compared to the 1.6% rise expected by economists. The HICP was up 0.5% from the preceding month. 
 
BELGIUM
 
The Bel 20 in Brussels closed out the week on 2,687.36, a dip of 1.02% Friday.
 
Belgian health products distributor Omega Pharma reported a 4.4% rise in first-quarter turnover and repeated its forecast of similar growth for the full year.
 
The company, which sells non-prescription products to pharmacists, said sales reached 202 million Euros ($275.5 million), just shy of the average forecast in a Reuters poll of five analysts of 203 million.
 
Sales in core market Belgium and emerging markets, chiefly in eastern Europe, were better than expected, with increases of 11 and 31% respectively.
 
Sales dropped by 10% in France and were up a modest 2% in the rest of western Europe, with growth in the Nordics, Spain, Switzerland and Britain, but weakness in Germany and Greece.
 
Omega, which sells wart treatments, mosquito repellent and pregnancy tests to pharmacists, said sales growth this year should be about 4%.
 
Belgium is a nation with a rich history, especially when it comes to gambling. As a matter of fact, some of the oldest documents that record gambling in Europe were located in Belgium and reference card games in the 1300's. It was also documented that a lottery has been run since the 1400s.
 
Needless to say, over the centuries Belgian gambling law has nevertheless gone through some major changes. The online gambling industry is currently being subjected to some major changes due to the outcome recent legislation on how it should run.
 
Belgium's Chamber of Representatives passed new gaming legislation last month that's going to change the industry dramatically. The new legislation has introduced new policies regarding licensing and registration which will be put into action by the end of this year.
 
The new laws will affect land-based and internet gambling in Belgium but will not affect the national lottery. Companies that wish to offer online gambling services within the nation's borders will from this point on be required to obtain a land-based license first. They will also be required to base any operation servers within the nation.
 
All companies will be licensed and regulated by the Belgian Gaming Commission and subject to the guidelines that it provides. A limit has been place on the number of gambling institutions that can be licensed through Loyal Decree, and high-level competition is anticipated.
 
Though these laws have come hot off the press, it is likely that those who currently play at online gambling sites in Belgium will continue to do so in the future. This is possible due to the fact that foreign companies are located in regions where online gambling is legal and fall outside the jurisdiction of the Belgian government.
 
Although the Belgian steel industry is set to stage a recovery in 2010, the long-term outlook for the sector is gloomy with output over the next five years likely to remain at least 25% down on pre-recession levels with the likelihood of mill closures over the medium-term, according to our latest Belgium Metals Report.
 
According to the World Steel Association, in 2009 Belgium's steel output fell 48.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 5.64mn tonnes, in line with our forecasts. We estimate that hot-rolled output fell 50.3% y-o-y to 5.78mn tonnes, with exports down 46.2% to 11.8mn tonnes. Finished steel consumption fell 42.3% to 3.54mn tonnes, dragging imports down 39.2% to 9.66mn tonnes. Aluminium consumption, which is heavily influenced by trends in the automotive industry, fell even faster than demand for steel in Belgium, with the market forecast to fall by 55.4% y-o-y to under 233,000 tonnes, though it should recover to around 413,600 tonnes by 2014.
 
Research finds that metals prices in Belgium bottomed out in late 2009, indicating that the market had reached a state of equilibrium. The question is whether demand will support the increase in production as steel mills come back on line.

Although inventories at mills and service centres were reportedly low by the beginning of 2010, end users were still suffering financial problems. With metals demand linked to GDP growth, a recovery in consumer spending and investment in both Belgium and the rest of the Eurozone is crucial to the recovery of the nation's metals industry.

The recession may be officially over, but the outlook is mixed in 2010. Having emerged from recession in Q309, Belgium has continued to shake off the worst effects of its economic downturn into 2010. Leading indicator data suggest that something of a recovery is underway, with industrial production, trade and business confidence all improving through to the end of 2009. We believe that metals output will grow 16.2% in 2010 with monthly output unchanged from H209. This will be largely driven by demand elsewhere in Europe. 
 
THE NETHERLANDS
 
In Amsterdam, the AEX finished the day and the week on 349.75, down 1.64% for the last trading session of the week.
 
Dutch retailer Ahold is looking at expanding its operations into Belgium this year, chief executive officer John Rishton revealed at the group's annual meeting of shareholders this week.
 
Mr Rishton said that the proposed move was one of a number of steps forward that the group was looking to take in its European or US markets in 2010.
 
"In Europe, we are evaluating organic growth for Albert Heijn into Belgium - in particular whether we can push over the border and use the logistic strength of our Dutch operation," he said.
 
As part of the speech, Mr Rishton said that Ahold was planning to increase capital expenditure by around 40% to €1.1bn, while it saw many competitors pulling back, with part of this used to support a faster roll out of remodelled stores.
 
In the Netherlands, Ahold would look to grow beyond satisfying consumers' food requirements into meeting their everyday needs, he noted, while the group would look to improve store formats and launch nearly 1,000 private label products in the US.
 
Retail sales value in the Netherlands fell 4% year-on-year in February, slower than the 5% decrease in the previous month, the country's Central Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
 
In volume terms, retail sales slumped 5% in February, also slower than the 6.3% decline in the prior month.
 
Tuesday, the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the volume of exports increased 11% on an annual basis in February, faster than the 8% growth in the previous month. Meanwhile, the volume of imports grew 5%.
 
The value of exports increased 13% year-on-year to Eur 28 billion in February, while the value of imports rose 9% to Eur 24 billion. Thus, the trade surplus amounted to Eur 4 billion in February, which was up by Eur 1.3 billion from the previous year.
 
Dutch company ASML, a key supplier of computer chip-making systems, said Wednesday it had turned last year's losses into a 107-million-Euro first quarter net profit, predicting record 2010 sales.
 
The figure was up from a loss of 117.2 million Euros (160 million Dollars) reported in the first quarter of 2009, and a 151-million-Euro net loss for 2009.
 
In the fourth quarter of last year, the company had booked a 50-million-Euro profit.
 
"Our first quarter 2010 sales rose to above 740 million Euros and bookings came in at 1 billion Euros, in line with our expectations and adding confidence in a prolonged recovery of the semiconductor industry," ASML chief executive Eric MEurice said in a statement.
 
He added the company was "on a track to 2010 full-year sales above our 2007 peak of 3.8 billion Euros."
 
Second quarter sales were expected to total about a billion Euros.
 
The company has about 6,500 employees in 15 countries. It claims to be the world's leading provider of lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines for the production of integrated circuits or chips.
 
SWITZERLAND
 
Zurich's SMI rounded off the week on 6,893.69, down 1.06% for the day Friday.
 
Syngenta AG , the world's largest agro-chemicals company, undershot analyst expectations with $3.5 billion sales in the first quarter and said cheaper raw materials should buoy its 2010 results.
 
The Swiss company, which makes weed- and insect-killing products and develops genetically-modified seeds, had a tough 2009 because of weak demand and low prices for farming products.
 
It said 2010 should benefit from lower raw material costs, favorable currency movements and margin enhancements in seeds.
 
"These elements will enable growth in operating income which will exceed earnings per share progression owing to higher tax and net financial expense," Syngenta said in a statement.
 
An unexpected sales rise was experienced in the first quarter sales of Roche Holding AG as the Swiss Pharma company confirmed its profit on Thursday. Reason for the elevation is being stated as the "refreshed demand for Avastin", a cancer treatment drug. Another reason for gains is the noticeable performance of the company in the upcoming markets.
 
The investor reaction also increased because of the decision of the Basel-based company, to put forth for regulatory approval in U. S. its breast cancer drug T-DM1 following the accepted trials in phase II. This drug was recently hanging for approval after several drug examination failures.
 
The sales for the company, also the firmest drug pipelines, inclined to 12.25 billion Swiss francs from CHF11.58 billion a year earlier, in three months, surpassing the analysts' predictions of CHF11.89 billion.
 
Chief Executive Severin Schwan, stated that the company has received a good start in the beginning of the year and that the pharmaceuticals and diagnostics divisions of the company have been exceeding the growths expected in their markets.
 
He also expressed that the company, largest cancer drug maker globally, was "fully on track for 2010" and that he expects that the sales will further rise.
 
The vote by shareholders of Swiss bank UBS not to absolve their 2007 management of any blame for losses is unikely to lead to a legal case, a banking expert says.
 
But Peter V. Kunz, a professor of economic law at Bern University told swissinfo.ch that Wednesday's vote against the so-called discharge, usually a routine affair at annual general meetings, nevertheless has certain implications.
 
The vote against - 52.8% - has been widely interpreted as a strong signal of disapproval by the shareholders. UBS chairman Kaspar Villiger admitted that it was a "clear sign of dissatisfaction".
 
In a separate non-binding vote, almost 40% of shareholders opposed the bank's bonus plan for 2009. Compensation at big companies, particularly major banks, has come under close public scrutiny in Switzerland and is the subject of a people's initiative aimed at curbing excesses.
 
Swiss banks UBS, Credit Suisse and Vontobel are among 146 financial institutions that have invested billions of Dollars in cluster bomb producers, campaigners say.
 
The investments occur despite the entry into force of the international treaty banning cluster munitions on August 1, groups claim. Switzerland, which formally signed the text in 2008, is expected to ratify it in 2011.
 
"It's unacceptable that our pension funds or the savings of the Swiss people are invested in producing weapons that kill and mutilate children around the world," Paul Vermeulen, director of Handicap International Switzerland, told reporters in Geneva on Wednesday.
 
UBS said it was moving away from such unethical investments.
 
"For its actively managed Luxembourg and Swiss-domiciled retail and institutional funds, UBS Global Asset Management is implementing a process to prevent investments in companies involved in anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions," UBS spokesperson Dominique Scheiwiller told swissinfo.ch.
 
The bank stressed it was committed to "responsible corporate behaviour". It has identified guidelines covering industry sectors that have a high potential for environmental and social risk.
 
It also has clear internal regulations prohibiting the financing of trade and export of certain war materials, including anti-personnel land mines and cluster munitions, it said.
 
"The report shows [the bank] does not play a major role in providing services for companies which, among others, manufacture the ammunition in question," said Credit Suisse spokesman Alex Biscaro.
 
AUSTRIA
 
The ATX in Vienna ended the trading day Friday at 2,733.08, a drop of 2.06% for the Friday session.
 
Cash-strapped Greece is deeply in debt with Austrian banks, it has emerged.
 
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - which coordinates regulations in the field of financial services to promote international financial stability - said the financially-struggling European Union (EU) member state owes Austrian banks around 4.5 billion Euros.
 
The institute's figures date back to September 2009 and are the most recent available statistics.
 
France was Greece's biggest creditor with around 75 billion Euros, according to reports.
 
Austrian Erste Group reportedly had exposures of around one billion Euros in Greece at the beginning of this year, 700 million Euros of which were government bonds.
 
Raiffeisenzentralbank (RZB) said recently it had investments of less than 300 million Euros in the country EU leaders recently agreed on a "rescue plan" for.
 
Volksbank AG bosses said most of its 187 million Euros of investment in Greece were loans, while BAWAK PSK officials announced it had government bonds of around 90 million Euros in the country.
 
Bank Austria (BA) meanwhile failed to make a statement.
 
Bank Austria officials have rejected claims by Freedom Party (FPÖ) leader Heinz-Christian Strache that customers' data were at risk after it relocated its data centre to Italy.
 
BA said Tuesday: "Customers' data continue to underlie the Austrian bank secrecy rules. Last year's relocation of the Bank Austria customers' data centre to Verona took place in full compliance with the Austrian bank secrecy law and data protection rules."
 
Strache accused Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl of the Social Democrats (SPÖ) of transferring data of the institute's 1.8 million Austrian customers by passing an "illicit directive".
 
The right-winger claimed Italian authorities were now able to access the whole Austrian customers' data stock "anytime".
 
BA - the biggest subsidy of Italian banking group UniCredit - however stressed the accessibility of all this information would still succumb to Austrian law.
 
OMV's Romanian subsidiary Petrom is investing 100 million Euros in wind power production, it was announced Thursday.
 
Petrom said it acquired the company SC Wind Power Park SRL, which owns a fully authorised wind power generation project, in the south-eastern Romanian town of Dobrogea with a designated capacity of 45 megawatt.
 
Petrom will built and operate the wind power plant, according to a Romanian Times report. The online newspaper also says the plant will start producing energy mid 2011.
 
Housing construction costs soared by more than three% last month, according to research by federal statistics agency Statistik Austria.
 
The body announced Thursday costs in the housing building sector jumped by 3.1% in March compared to price levels in the same month of 2009.
 
Experts said soaring prices for plastics, petrol and other substances as well as the current fluctuation of steel prices were to blame for the development.
 
Road construction costs meanwhile increased by 2.4% year on year last month.
 
Passengers numbers at Vienna International Airport (VIA) increased last month.
 
VIA said 1,492,135 people used the airport in March, up by nine% year on year. There has been just a 5.4% year on year increase in February 2010.
 
Officials also said the number of flights soared by three%.
 
An important aspect for the airport's business are passengers coming from and travelling to Eastern Europe. VIA announced 12.9% more EE travellers used VIA last month.
 
Fitch Ratings on Friday affirmed Austria's long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'AAA', respectively. The rating outlooks on both long-term ratings remained stable. Fitch also affirmed country ceiling at 'AAA' and its short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'.
 
"Although the economy contracted in line with the 'AAA' median, the deterioration in the fiscal deficit was modest relative to many of its 'AAA'-rated peers, while financial sector risks were contained below Fitch's expectations," Andres Klaar, Associate Director in Fitch's Sovereigns Group said.
 
The rating agency assessed that continuing downside risks to the sovereign balance sheet are mainly related to the banking sector which has a disproportionally high exposure to Central and Eastern Europe. Further, Fitch noted that economic contraction in 2009 was 3.6%, which was close to the 'AAA' median decline of 3.7%.
 
Fitch added that Austria's creditworthiness remains supported by its wealthy, high-income and diversified economy. The strong international competitiveness brightens the outlook for export-led growth. In addition, Austria's long-term public finances are on relatively strong ground due to recent pension reform. 
 
SWEDEN
 
In Stockholm, the OMX headed into the weekend on 1,050.24, dropping not as much as other European indices but down 0.29% on the Friday session.
 
Swedish central bank Governor Stefan Ingves warned that household debt levels can't continue to rise and said residential property inflation is a "concern."
 
"Increased household debt can't go on forever; the same thing holds for house prices," Ingves said in an interview in Madrid Thursday. "We have an inflation target, we don't have a target for house prices, but it's an issue of concern."
 
House prices in the Nordic economy rose for an 11th quarter in the three months ended March, soaring an annual 9%, Statistics Sweden said Thursday. At the same time, household credit is rising, with growth accelerating to an annual 9.3% in February, according to the office. Record-low borrowing costs have fueled a property bubble that may result in a 20% house price slump and shave a fifth of the value of gross domestic product, the National Housing Credit Guarantee board said on Feb. 23.
 
"The issue is not one of levels, the issue is one of direction," Ingves said.
 
The Riksbank has left the benchmark rate at a record low 0.25% since July, and said in February it will bring forward a tightening cycle to "summer or early autumn," from "autumn" previously.
 
At the same time, the government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt has pushed through stimulus measures to support demand in an effort to keep a lid on unemployment.
 
Sweden's government Thursday cut its 2010 growth forecast and said it will spend more to stimulate the economy as it trails the opposition in opinion polls ahead of parliamentary elections in five months.
 
Gross domestic product will expand 2.5% this year instead of 3% as predicted on Jan. 27, Finance Minister Anders Borg said. GDP will rise 3.9% in 2011, compared with a previous forecast of 3.6%, and grow 3.5% in 2012, he said.
 
"There are various indications that Sweden has coped with the crisis better than many other countries, thanks to responsible financial policies," Finance Minister Anders Borg said.
 
"It is important to ensure that a high rate of unemployment does not become persistent," he added.
 
The government is committing a further SEK 4.9 billion during 2010 to stimulate the demand for labor.
 
Sweden's economy shrank the most since World War II last year because of falling demand for its exports, which make up about half of its output.
 
SKF AB shares rose to their highest level in almost three years Friday as the world's biggest maker of ball bearings said first-quarter earnings and sales exceeded analysts' estimates.
 
SKF rose as much as 8.4%, and was up 9.9 kronor, or 7.4% at 143.8 kronor in early Friday Stockholm trading. Shares of SKF have gained 16% so far this year, more than the 11% gain of the OMX 30 benchmark index.
 
SKF is a bellwether for industrial demand because its ball- bearings are used in cars, household appliances and factory equipment. A typical western household uses about 130 different SKF bearings in various products, according to the company. It is scheduled to publish full first-quarter earnings on April 20.
 
Shares in other Swedish industrial companies such as Sandvik AB and Trelleborg AB rose as much as 6% and 7% respectively in Stockholm trading.
 
Swedish company NCC AB said Wednesday that it has Won a SEK210m contract to expand the Balforsen hydropower plant at Umealven, outside Lycksele, northern Sweden.
 
The assignment covers the construction of a new power station with a third turbine adjacent to the plant.
 
The customer is German multi-utility Eon and the project, which is conditional upon a water-rights court ruling from the Swedish environmental court, is expected to start between September 2010 and January 2011.
 
Accordingly, NCC will register the order in the third quarter of 2010 at the earliest.
 
Autoliv - the global leader in automotive safety systems - Thursday announced that it had successfully exceeded the 90% threshold required to make its 51% owned Estonian subsidiary AS Norma wholly owned.
 
At the close of the offer period Thursday, shareholders representing 42.7% of all shares in the Estonian company had accepted the offer. This corresponds to 87.2% of the Norma shares that Autoliv did not own. Following the settlement Autoliv will hold 93.7% in Norma. Remaining minority shareholders that did not submit their acceptances by Tuesday, will according to Estonian law be given an opportunity to accept the offer, before compulsory sale proceedings will commence.
 
The price of the 49% of the Norma shares, previously not owned by Autoliv, is approximately $50 million. 
 
DENMARK
 
The OMX in Copenhagen completed a busy trading week on 402.68, off 0.64% Friday.
 
Monday, the Statistics Denmark announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 2.2% on an annual basis in March, faster than the 1.9% growth in the previous month. Economists were looking for an increase of 2.1%.
 
Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices fell 0.5% in March, while clothing and footwear prices rose 1.2%. Transportation charges increased 4.6%.
 
On a monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.6% in March, faster than the 0.5% expected by economists. In February, the CPI rose 1.2%.
 
Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP grew 2.1% annually in March, after a 1.8% increase in February. The HICP was up 0.7% compared to the preceding month.
 
Local airline Wings of Bornholm is shutting down at the end of the month due to ballooning costs and declining profits, according to a company press release.
 
The airline had handled the route between Copenhagen and the island's largest city of Rønne - a route also operated by Cimber Sterling.
 
Wings of Bornholm had originally hoped to enter into a cooperation agreement on the route with Norwegian Air. But according to public broadcaster DR, Norwegian will now take over the route on its own as of 2 May.
 
Customers who purchased Wings of Bornholm tickets for flights after 30 April will receive full refunds.
 
TrygVesta's head of investor relations could face punishment for his conversations with Carnegie Bank about a major reduction in profit expectations
 
Selected investors got a head start in selling their shares in insurance company TrygVesta prior to the stock's dive last Friday afternoon, according to financial daily Børsen.
 
At 3pm that day the company issued an extraordinary press release revealing unexpected losses of around 700 million kroner for the first quarter of 2010, largely due to the unexpectedly harsh winter.
 
But already on Thursday at 2:28 Carnegie Bank had issued a notice to its customers that TrygVesta's department for investor relations had warned them that the significant downward adjustments were on the way.
 
'We just spoke to TrygVesta's head of Investor Relations about Q1 and understood that because of considerable uncertainty in the market the company has decided to issue a statement with more accurate data,' wrote Carnegie Bank analyst Gianandrea Roberti in the notice.
 
The communication was marked as high priority by the bank, and the information about the significant winter losses was written into the message's headline.
 
But it wasn't until 24 hours later that the rest of the stock market got TrygVesta's message about the downgrade that would negatively affect profit expectations for the insurance company by 700 million kroner.
 
Trygvesta's head of investor relations, Ole Søeberg, acknowledged he spoke with Carnegie Bank prior to the announcement to its customers on Thursday afternoon.
 
'But I did not say anything contrary to the normal security rules. In my estimation, Carnegie Bank simply put two and two together.'
 
But Professor Nis Jul Clausen, an expert in stock market regulation at the University of Southern Denmark, called TrygVesta's conduct a clear violation of market rules.
 
'At minimum it will result in a censure from both the stock exchange and the FSA. Whether the case will entail more than that is hard to tell at this stage,' said Clausen.
 
According to Børsen research, TrygVesta shares fell by nearly 3% just before the 3pm announcement on Friday, dropping by 11 kroner. 
 
FINLAND
 
Helsinki's OMX bounded into the weekend on 7,242.36, down 1.96%.
 
The Bank of Finland reported on Thursday that the current account balance logged a surplus of Eur 98 million in February, down from the Eur 269 million surplus in the previous month.
 
The goods account surplus rose to Eur 134 million in February from Eur 104 million in January, while that in the services account decreased to Eur 116 million from Eur 135 million.
 
The income account balance swung to a deficit of Eur 11 million from a surplus of Eur 171 million. The transfers account deficit was unchanged at Eur 141 million.
 
The central bank also said that the financial account swung to a Eur 3.86 billion deficit in February from a Eur 2.66 billion surplus in the preceding month.
 
Statistics Finland said on Thursday that the total turnover generated by service industries in Finland fell 1.1% year-on-year in January.
 
During the three month period that ended in January, services turnover slumped 5.7% annually, faster than the 9.6% decrease in the three months to October period.
 
Turnover in transport and storage fell 9.1% during the period while turnover in professional, scientific & technical activities was 9.9% lower than in the same period of the previous year.
 
On the other hand, turnover in arts, entertainment & recreation increased 7.1%.
 
Finland's retail trade value grew 2% year-on-year in February, after remaining flat in January, it was also reported Thursday. Sales volume rose 1.3% annually during the month after falling 1% in January.
 
The value of wholesale trade fell 0.2% year-on-year in February compared to the 1.5% decline in the previous month. The pace of decline slowed for a fifth month. In terms of volume, wholesale trade dropped 1.8% yearly after a 1.3% fall in the previous month.
 
The total annual retail trade in value terms remained unchanged after a 1.7% fall in the previous month. In terms of volume, total trade slipped 1.2% year-on-year following the 1.9% fall in January.
 
During the January to February period retail sales grew 1% year-on-year, wholesale trade fell 0.8% during the period. Total sales were also down 0.8% annually during the period.
 
Wednesday, the Statistics Finland announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 0.6% on an annual basis in March, faster than the 0.1% growth in the previous month. Economists were looking for an increase of 0.5%.
 
On a monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.5% in March, compared to the 0.4% growth in the previous month. The increase was mainly due to higher prices of liquid fuels and ending of clothing sales, the statistical office said.
 
Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP rose 1.5% annually in March, faster than the 1.3% increase in the preceding month. Month-on-month, the HICP was up 0.6%, after rising 0.4% in February.
 
NORWAY
 
The OBX in Oslo closed out the week at 351.56, declining 1.36% in the process.
 
Statistics Norway reported on Thursday that the country's trade surplus stood at NOK 28.91 billion in March, down from the NOK 33.23 billion in the previous month.
 
Exports rose 4.1% year-on-year to NOK 70.53 billion in March. Exports excluding crude oil, natural gas & condensates climbed 15.2%.
 
At the same time, imports surged 14.1% to NOK 41.50 billion - the highest monthly import value since October 2008.
 
Monday, the Statistics Norway announced that the international reserves stood at NOK 300.56 billion in March, up from NOK 290.93 billion in the previous month. A year ago, international reserves amounted to NOK 314.51 billion.
 
Foreign currency reserves increased to NOK 234.49 billion from NOK 212.83 billion, while SDRs dropped to NOK 14.5 billion from NOK 14.6 billion.
 
Meanwhile, nation's reserve position with the International Monitory Fund amounted to NOK 4.16 billion in March, larger than the NOK 3.06 billion in the previous month.
 
It was also reported Monday that the total gross debt or C3 rose 4.9% on an annual basis in January, faster than the 0.8% growth in the previous month. The total gross debt was up 6.1% in November.
 
Total gross debt amounted to NOK 4.2 billion in January, up from NOK 4.18 billion in the previous month.
 
The public gross external loan debt increased 8.3% in January, rebounding from 11.5% fall in the previous month. At the same time, the mainland Norway's foreign debt rose 9.8%, up from 1.1% fall in the previous month.
 
Meanwhile, the domestic gross debt grew 4.2% in January, same as the previous month. The credit indicator amounted to NOK 3.43 billion. 
 
SPAIN
 
In Madrid the IBEX finished the day Friday on 11,259.70, a 2.29% dip for the session.
 
The Spanish banking system faces the biggest risk of "mass unemployment", the country's central bank Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said Tuesday.
 
"If Spain maintains for a prolonged period these millions of workers out of jobs, the banking system could become an obstacle to achieving economic recovery after being a support for the economy during the crisis," Ordonez, who is also an ECB Governing Council member, said in Madrid.
 
Among the Eurozone members, Spain has logged the highest rate of unemployment. The jobless rate stood at 19% in February.
 
Spanish house prices fell 5.3% year-on-year in March following a 5.5% drop in February, property website TINSA said Tuesday. A year ago, house prices fell 9.7%.
 
House prices in the capital and large cities decreased 5.4% and those in the metropolitan areas fell 5.6%. In the Mediterranean coast, prices were down 7.8%. House prices were 5.7% lower in Balearic and Canary Islands. Other municipalities showed a 4% fall.
 
In the first quarter, house prices dropped 1.7% compared to the previous year when prices were down 3%.
 
On the same day, Spain's National Statistics Institute said home sales rose 7.2% month-on-month in February, taking the annual growth to 18.7%.
 
Spain's annual inflation rose to 1.4% in March, the highest in over a year, the Institute of National Statistics said Thursday. In February, prices rose 0.8%. Economists had forecast annual inflation to rise to 0.7%.
 
Core inflation rate rose to 0.2% from 0.1% in the previous two months. Food prices dropped 2.1% in March on an annual basis.
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.7% in March, in line with the economists' forecast. In February, prices declined 0.2%.
 
The harmonized index of consumer prices calculated for the EU purposes, rose 1.5% year-on-year after growing 0.9% in February. Inflation came in slightly above the flash estimate of 1.4%. Prices rose for a fifth month annually. On a monthly basis, HICP declined 0.7%. 
 
PORTUGAL
 
The PSI General in Lisbon closed the week out at 2,789.35, like Spain, down 2.29%.
 
Portugal successfully sold 2 billion Euros ($2.73 billion) of two- and 10-year bonds on Wednesday and Won qualified support from the European Commission for its plans to cut the budget deficit.
 
But while the country saw strong demand for its bonds, investors priced in higher risk for the longer-dated issue and spreads rose in the secondary market following other peripheral Euro zone countries.
 
Portugal accepted bids for 1.195 billion Euros of government bonds maturing in 2020 at an average yield of 4.340% and 805 million of 2-year bonds at 1.715%. It had hoped to raise between 1.5 billion and 2 billion Euros in total and the placement came at the top end of the range.
 
Tuesday, the Statistics Portugal announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 0.5% on an annual basis in March, faster than the 0.2% growth in the previous month. A year ago, the CPI was down 0.4%.
 
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 1.1% in March, rising from 0.1% in February. This was mainly due to rise in prices of clothing and footwear.
 
The CPI, excluding energy and unprocessed food decreased 0.4% in March from the previous year.
 
Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP increased 0.6% on an annual basis in March, faster than the 0.2% growth in the preceding month. A year ago, the HICP was down 0.6%. On a monthly basis, the HICP inflation rate increased to 1.2% in March from 0.8% last year.
 
Portugal's services turnover rose 0.2% year-on-year in February after falling 1.1% in January, the Statistics Portugal said Monday.
 
Employment in the sector decreased 1.7% in February compared to the previous year. Wages and salaries dropped 1.5%, while working hours fell 2.4%. 
 
ITALY
 
Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index fell the most since Feb. 25, losing 532.02, or 2.3%, to 23,007.22 in Milan. The gauge dropped 0.4% this week.
 
Banca Popolare di Milano declined 14.25 cents, or 3%, to 4.67 Euros. Banks dropped in Europe after the US Securities and Exchange Commission Friday sued Goldman Sachs Group Inc., accusing the company and one of its vice presidents of defrauding investors. Banco Popolare SC (BP IM) lost 19.5 cents, or 3.6%, to 5.20 Euros. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP IM) fell 8.75 cents, or 3%, to 2.80 Euros. UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) lost 8.75 cents, or 3.8%, to 2.20 Euros. Unione di Banche Italiane SCPA (UBI IM) retreated 23 cents, or 2.2%, to 10.14 Euros.
 
Dada dropped 31.5 cents, or 6.1%, to 4.85 Euros, snapping a two-day increase. Intermonte Sim SpA downgraded the Internet and mobile-phone company to "underperform" from "outperform."
 
Dea Capital advanced 3.4 cents, or 2.5%, to 1.37 Euros, a second session of gains. The investment company and Fondi Immobiliari Italiani Sgr SpA said in a statement that they are studying a merger of Dea's First Atlantic Real Estate Sgr SpA and FIMIT "with the objective of creating a leading European operator in real estate asset management."
 
Mediobanca retreated 30 cents, or 3.8%, to 7.71 Euros. Equita Sim SpA said in a note that the bank's third-quarter revenue "mix" may be "lackluster" and trimmed its price projection to 10 Euros from 10.5 Euros.
 
Prysmian dropped 69 cents, or 4.5%, to 14.82 Euros, the lowest this month. Equita Sim SpA downgraded the world's second-biggest cable maker to "hold" from "buy" and removed the stock from its "main portfolio."
 
Saipem, Europe's largest oilfield-services provider, lost 94 cents, or 3.2%, to 28.73 Euros. Crude oil fell the most in 10 weeks.
 
STMicroelectronics retreated for a second day, falling 21.5 cents, or 3%, to 7.53 Euros. Technology stocks dropped across Europe after first-quarter profit from Google Inc. missed some estimates.
 
Tenaris, the world's largest maker of seamless pipes used to extract oil and gas, fell a fourth day this week, losing 51 cents, or 3.2%, to 15.39 Euros. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. which has a "neutral" rating on the stock, said in a note that "in the near-term, the company is likely to continue to struggle with declining pricing, low profitability in the US markets, and an unfavorable overall mix of products."
 
A Milan court rejected a debt- restructuring proposal by Snia SpA and declared the company insolvent, newswire Ansa reported, citing a decision by Judge Filippo Lamanna. Snia's shares were halted in Milan pending news, according to the Italian exchange.
 
Italy's non-seasonally adjusted total trade deficit was Eur 2.33 billion in February, statistical office Istat said Thursday. It follows Eur 3.39 billion deficit in January.
 
Exports rose 7.3% year-on-year to Eur 25.18 billion and imports grew 12.9% to Eur 27.51 billion.
 
The seasonally adjusted trade deficit was Eur 1.57 billion, with exports rising 2.5% month-on-month and imports growing 3.6%.
 
Unadjusted trade deficit with EU countries stood at Eur 710 million. Exports to this region rose 11%, while imports grew 14.9%.
 
Italy's unadjusted non-EU trade deficit logged Eur 1.62 billion, while seasonally adjusted deficit was Eur 1.09 billion. 
 
GREECE
 
Athen's Athex Composite ended the week on 1,995.24, off 1.64% on the session.
 
The pension bill which will be unveiled at a cabinet meeting includes new provisions, including forms of flexible work, pension rights, wages, labour relations and union rights. Main opposition New Democracy party dismissed the measures are fragmentary, while SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left) spoke of medieval working conditions.
 
Employment Ministry officials claimed that amendments and necessary adjustments could be made.
 
Greece's Economy, Competitiveness and Shipping Minister Louka Katseli on Thursday met with the head of European Investment Fund (EIF) of the European Investment Bank, Richard Pelly and discussed ways to expand cooperation and promoting new products to support small- and medium-sized enterprises and to ensuring liquidity in the Greek market, a program called JEREMIE (Joint Eurpoean Resources for Micro to Medium Enterprises).
 
Greece sold Eur 1.56 billion worth Treasury bills on Tuesday in an oversubscribed auction held after the Eurozone leaders offered aid for the debt-stricken country over the weekend.
 
The country raised more than the Eur 1.2 billion it expected to accumulate. However, economists continue to expect that the county may be forced to seek support from Eurozone.
 
The Greek public debt management agency sold Eur 780 million of the 52-week T-bill at an average yield of 4.85%, up from 2.20% in a previous auction held on January 12. Further, it sold Eur 780 million of 26-week T-bill at an average yield 4.55%, up from 1.38% in the previous auction.
 
The bid-to-cover ratio was 7.67 times for the 26-week bills while it was 6.54 times for the 52-week bills.
 
Finance Ministers of the 16-nation Eurozone agreed on Sunday to provide up to Eur 30 billion Euros in emergency loans at below-market interest rates to Greece if the country requires them. The aid will also involve the International Monetary Fund, which will make a further 10 billion Euros available to Athens this year. The development was widely expected to boost investor confidence.
 
Prime Minister George Papandreou needs to raise Eur 11.6 billion by the end of next month to cover maturing debt. This is part of about Eur 54 billion required for the full year to cover debt and budget needs.

The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsRoyal Bank of Scotland was an unlikely gainer on Friday, defying a bad day for banking stocks and the biggest daily fall for the FTSE 100 for nearly two months after Goldman Sachs was charged with fraud.
 
RBS rose to its highest since October after Merrill Lynch forecast it would report a profit in 2010.
 
RBS closed up 5.1% to 48¼p, putting the taxpayer close to breakeven on its majority stake, which was purchased at an average price of 49½p. 
 
The taxpayer was showing a paper profit on Lloyds Banking Group, which closed down 1.1% at 64¾p against the average "in" price of 63p. Brokers including Merrill have played down the risks of a quick government disposal, arguing that the government was more likely to wait for higher prices and sell gradually.
 
The investment banks were hit hardest by the Securities and Exchange Commission's move against Goldman. Barclays erased a 1.5% gain to close 2.6% weaker at 373¼p, while HSBC moved from little changed to lose 2.1% to 698p.
 
Overall, the FTSE 100 fell 81.05 points, or 1.4%, to 5,743.96. That was enough to break the index's six-week winning streak, leaving it 0.5% lower since Monday morning.
 
Miners followed the banks lower on Friday as the post-Goldman sell-off spread to the metals markets. Antofagasta weakened 3.8% to £10 and Randgold Resources lost 3.7% to £51.25. Rio Tinto fell 3.9% to £38 as analysts trimmed forecasts by about 5% in response to Thursday's weaker-than-expected production guidance.
 
Xstrata was down 4.4% to £12.36½. Peabody Energy raised its takeover offer for Australia's Macarthur Coal to $3.7bn, a move widely seen as an attempt to deter Xstrata from entering the bid battle.
 
But Autonomy was the day's sharpest faller, tumbling 6% to £17.40. For a second straight quarter, the software maker said it had only met consensus forecasts, breaking its long history of exceeding expectations. Investors also balked at weaker cash flow, which has long been a source of concern.
 
British Airways retreated by 3.1% to 235p as volcanic ash clouds shut northern Europe's airports for a second day.
 
Tui Travel was also weak, down 3.4% to 291¾p, while Thomas Cook lost 2.4% to 261p even after it announced a long-awaited bond issue to refinance debt.
 
Services groups were among the risers, with Serco up 1.1% to 627½p and Capita rising 1.8% to 810p. Credit Suisse started coverage of the former with an "out­perform" rating, but said it still saw more value in the latter.
 
Bluetooth chipmaker CSR advanced 3.2% to 452p. UBS, upgrading it to "buy", said quarterly handset volumes from key customers such as Samsung and Nokia would be "robust".
 
GKN led the engineers higher, up 2.5% to 145p, after ball-bearing maker SKF said its sales had beaten expectations.
 
Inchcape, the car dealership, took on 1.8% to 32p after Panmure Gordon raised its target price to 42p following better-than-feared sales data from Toyota, one of its marques. The broker also highlighted improved guidance from two main US dealers, "which could be a sign that the global automotive market is picking up", it said.  
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN
 
Tokyo stocks fell on Friday as the Yen's rise and a selloff in US semiconductor maker Advanced Micro Devices spurred profit-taking in exporters, led by Tokyo Electron and other chip-related technology stocks.
 
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 171.61 points, or 1.5% to 11,102.18, its sharpest percentage drop in about two months. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues fell 10.06 points, or 1.0%, to 988.84.
 
The market opened sharply lower, as Yen strengthening hurt exporters generally. A selloff in shares of AMD following its earnings report also hurt sentiment for Japan techs. US stock futures fell, while other Asian bourses also closed lower.
 
Daiwa Securities Capital Markets senior technical analyst Hikaru Sato said that although Tokyo shares have been rising recently on expectations for a recovery in earnings, broad-market profit-taking may ensue when fiscal year-end earnings are confirmed.
 
Tokyo Electron ended down 2.7% at Y6,380, despite a Nikkei report that although the maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment appears to have suffered an operating loss of Y4.5 billion in its just-ended fiscal year, it is likely to earn a group operating profit of around Y60 billion Yen for the current fiscal year. But investors had already priced in a strong recovery in chip demand, a Japanese brokerage manager said.
 
Chip testing equipment maker Advantest lost 2.2% to Y2,426, while heavyweight Sony also closed off 1.8% at Y3,350.
 
Shares of major tire makers Bridgestone, Sumitomo Rubber, and Yokohama Rubber were all off sharply on concerns about rising natural rubber prices and the likely impact on their respective bottom lines.
 
Bridgestone shares ended off 1.8% at Y1,518, while Sumitomo Rubber lost 3.0% at Y766, and Yokohama Rubber surrendered 1.9% at Y412.
 
On the other hand, Hino Motors added 3.7% to Y422 after the company said it expects a much smaller loss than previously estimated for its just-ended fiscal year. The firm offered net loss guidance of Y3 billion, sharply up from its prior Y22.5 billion loss view, crediting increasing sales in Asian countries as well as cost-cutting measures.
 
JVC Kenwood Holdings rose 11% to Y63 on more than six times normal volume after a Yomiuri Shimbun report said the company is selling its two music business subsidiaries to Softbank. Softbank shares shed 2.4% to Y2,166.
 
Meanwhile, Nippon Sheet Glass gained 1.7% to Y287 after saying Thursday it will appoint former DuPont executive Craig Naylor as its CEO in June, raising expectations that a new president with extensive experience in international operations could help the company's presence in overseas markets.
 
On the Osaka Securities Exchange, June Nikkei 225 futures ended down 180 points, or 1.6%, at 11,090. 
 
SOUTH KOREA
 
Seoul shares ended 0.54% lower on Friday led by falls in exporters and airlines, but retail issues' gains lent the market support.
 
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) finished down 9.42 points at 1,734.49 points, but still posted its 10th weekly gain in a row.
 
The KOSPI traded well above its 90-day moving average of 1,660 points, and the 90-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 57, nearing the overbought territory of 70.
 
Foreign investors were buyers of a net 13.2 billion Won ($11.90 million) worth of stocks, picking up shares for a third consecutive session.
 
Institutions were sellers of a net 77 billion Won.
 
Key technology and auto exporters retreated, with LG Electronics down 0.81% and Kia Motors shedding 0.99%.
 
Airlines and tour issues retreated after prolonged recent rises, with Korean Air Line, South Korea's top air carrier, falling 1.75% and Hana Tour dropping 3.4%.
 
Shares in NHN slipped 3.59%, weighed by disappointing earnings from US peer Google on Thursday.
 
Online game company Webzen said in a filing to the Korea Exchange on Friday that it would merge with NHN's online game unit, with NHN the top shareholder of the merged firm.
 
Retail issues rebounded following recent losses. Sales growth at South Korea's top three department stores in March slowed on cold weather, government data showed on Friday.
 
Lotte Shopping rose 2.67% and Hyundai Department Store advanced 0.97%.
 
Hana Financial Group outperformed, gaining 1.21% ahead of its quarterly results due later on Friday.
 
HONG KONG
 
Hong Kong shares finished lower Friday, dragged down by Chinese property developers and banks after Beijing's latest measures to rein in property-market speculation.
 
The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell 292.56 points, or 1.3%, to 21,865.26 after trading between 21,788.88 and 22,111.99. Over the week, it fell 1.5%.
 
Market volume rose to HK$76.49 billion from HK$70.87 billion Thursday.
 
Analysts said they expect the index to remain stuck in a 21,300-22,300 point range until the end of the month as investors were likely to fret China's latest tightening moves wouldn't be the last.
 
Among blue chips, China Overseas Land dropped 4.8% to HK$15.50 and China Resources Land slid 4.2% to HK$15.26.
 
China banks fell in light of their loan exposure to the real-estate sector. China Construction Bank dropped 2.7% to HK$6.59 and Bank of China fell 4.0% to HK$4.05.
 
Smaller developers focusing on non-top-tier cities were slightly more resilient. Poly HK fell 1.9% to HK$8.56, while Central China ended down 0.5% at HK$2.03.
 
UOB KayHian said developers focused on smaller cities are likely to be less affected by the policy changes, because demand in such cities is generally driven by end-users rather than speculators.
 
The brokerage identified China Resources Land, which has a diversified geographic exposure, and Minmetals Land, with over 60% of its net asset value in low-risk cities, as safer investment bets in the China property sector.
 
Blue-chip contract handset maker Foxconn fell 4.7% to HK$7.79 after its 2009 results missed expectations by a wide margin.
 
The company, which makes mobile phones for companies such as Motorola and Nokia, said its net profit plunged to US$38.59 million last year from US$121.1 million in 2008, much lower than the average US$82.2 million forecast of 12 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. 
 
CHINA
 
China's shares ended lower Friday because of new measures by Beijing to cool the overheated domestic housing market, despite the strong debut of the country's first-ever stock index futures.
 
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended down 1.1%, or 34.67 points, at 3130.30. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.2%, or 1.86 points, to 1229.72.
 
The Shanghai index fell 0.5% in the past week.
 
The State Council said Thursday certain homebuyers will have to make digger downpayments and pay higher mortgage rates, its latest bid to douse the enthusiasm of property speculators.
 
China's stock index futures rose on their first day of trading Friday, mostly due to initial enthusiasm about the derivatives product, which for the first time allows investors to make trades based on their expectations the overall market will fall--not just rise.
 
The most actively traded May futures contract closed up 0.5% at 3145.6.
 
Banks led the declines because of concerns over slower loan growth this year compared with 2009. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China declined 1.0% to CNY4.90 and Bank of China fell 1.2% to CNY4.20.
 
Homebuilders fell for the third consecutive session after the latest tightening measures, which include a higher minimum downpayment requirement for second-home purchases, at 50% of the cost of the home, up from 40%.
 
China State Construction Engineering fell 0.5% to CNY4.22, after declining 1.2% in the previous two sessions. Gemdale was down 0.9% at CNY12.69, after declining 2.9% over the same period.
 
Chalco won regulatory approval for a private placement of up to 1 billion RMB-denominated A shares.    
 
Chinese drugmakers bucked the downtrend. United Laboratories climbed 7.3% and Wuyin Pharma gained 5.8%, spurred by China's efforts to improve healthcare, including lifting spending on the sector.
 
One of the session's top gainer, Junefield Department Store, surged after posting a 20% rise in profit and a 274% jump in revenue for 2009.
 
Foxconn International lid 4.2% after posting results that missed forecasts.
 
Swire Pacific dropped 3%. The Hong Kong stock exchange has approved the planned $3 billion initial public offering of its property arm Swire Properties, a local newspaper reported.
 
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.1% to 3,130.39 points.
 
TAIWAN
 
Taiwan's share prices closed lower Friday, with the weighted index -- the market's key barometer-- falling 60.37 points, or 0.73%, to close at 8,111.57.
 
The local bourse opened at 8,161.85 and fluctuated between 8,090.68 and 8,162.85 during the day's trading. Market turnover totaled NT$121.17 billion (US$3.86 billion).
 
Six of eight major stock categories lost ground, with cement issues dropping the most at 1.1%. Financial and banking stocks lost 0.96%, machinery and electronics issues moved down 0.87% and foodstuffs were down 0.67%. Textile issues fell 0.43% and plastics and chemicals shares lost 0.21%.
 
Two major stock categories gained ground, with construction shares gaining 0.84% and paper and pulp issues moving up 0.65%.
 
Losers outnumbered gainers 2,003 to 1,118, with 279 remaining unchanged.
 
Foreign investors and Chinese QDIIs were net sellers of NT$1.71 billion in shares.
 
Taiwan's government aims to spend more than 500 million US Dollars to create 137,000 jobs this year, in its latest move to ease the island's unemployment, an official said Friday.
 
The Council of Labour Affairs, which is already spending 9.3 billion Taiwan Dollars (300 million US) to create jobs, has pledged the additional funds in a bid to keep the jobless rate below five%, the official said.
 
The council will subsidise local governments to expand their staff in tourism promotion, labour safety and green industries, as well as the private sector to hire middle-aged workers, he said.
 
Taiwan's unemployment rate stood at 5.76% in February while Premier Wu Den-yih has offered to resign if he fails to push it below five% by the end of this year.
 
It has been improving steadily from a record 6.13% in August, as the island's export-dependent economy emerged from its worst post-war recession with a pick-up in global demand. 
 
THE PHILIPPINES
 
The stock market extended its losing streak for a third session in a row, as profit taking continued in stocks that had gone up significantly in the previous sessions.
 
The Philippine Stock Exchange composite index fell 0.4% or 13 points to 3,265.54, paring down a loss of as much as 1.2% intraday.
 
Week on week, the main index gained 0.3%.
 
Market breadth was negative. Decliners beat advancers, 75 to 19, while 65 issues were left unchanged.
 
A total of 1.93 billion shares worth P2.97 billion were traded.
 
First Philippine Holdings Corp., SM Investments Corp., and Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. were the top traded stocks.
 
FPH gained 0.9% to P57.50 per share.
 
SM ended unchanged at P397.50 per share.
 
PLDT gained 1% to P2,510.00 per share.
 
SINGAPORE
 
Singapore shares edged down on Friday, but still ended the week above the psychological 3,000 points level, with cheer dwindling from positive economic data released two days ago.
 
The bench mark Straits Times Index dropped 0.3% by closing bell, down 9.75 points to 3,007.19.
 
Some 1.85 billion shares exchanged hands at a value of S$1.57 billion, with losers beating gainers 359 to 180.
 
The decline was in line with regional stocks, dragged down by after-hours losses in Google's and Advanced Micro Devices' shares despite the companies reporting better-than-expected results.
 
China Minzhong whose initial public offering (IPO) in Singapore is the largest so far this year, had a disappointing debut Thursday, with its shares tanking below the issue price. At closing, the mainboard stock dipped 6.7% to $1.12 from an IPO price of $1.20, after 64.35 million shares changed hands.
 
The counter, which saw an intraday low of $1.11, rose to as high as $1.23 in morning trading. Some dealers attributed the poor debut to the company's vegetable business having an unattractive image while others view the stock as fully priced. 
 
A dealer with a local brokerage said, given that it was already priced above a Dollar with a historical price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 times based on post-offering share capital, the stock may be "on the pricey side". Minzhong had recorded profit growth over the past 3 years and a major plus point for this IPO is its connection with the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and its institutional ownership consisting of Olympus Capital, CMIA Capital Partners and OCBC Capital.
 
The move to tighten 'SingDollar' lands property buyers in a sweet spot as this move draws capital inflow, lowering interest rates. The 3-month SIBOR (Singapore Interbank Offered Rate) fell to 0.64583% Thursdayday from 0.65625% on Wednesday after the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) appreciated the local unit to curb inflationary pressures.
 
The government has also revised economic growth upwards to 7-9% from 4.5-6.5%. It also raised 2010 forecast for consumer price index inflation by half a percentage point to 2.5-3.5%. Several economists expect the SingDollar to continue appreciating until the end of the year. Many expect that as soon as the US hikes its interest rates which could be towards the end of the year, local interest rates will rise.
 
MALAYSIA
 
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended sluggish trade broadly lower Friday on profit taking with decliners thumping advancers in line with key regional markets, a dealer said.
 
At close, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) shed 6.06 points to 1,332.77 after opening 1.51 points higher at 1,340.34.
 
The Finance Index fell 79.56 points to 11,967.83, the Plantation Index eased 19.46 points to 6,517.42, the Industrial Index dipped 20.12 points to 2,754.35 and the FBM Emas Index dipped 56.35 points to 9,050.6.
 
The FBM70 meanwhile, declined 106.189 points to 9,050.37 and the FBM Ace Index lost 31.69 points to 4,207.32.
 
Decliners thumped advancers 495 to 201 while 305 counters were unchanged, 359 untraded and 31 others suspended.
 
Trading volume dropped to 783.780 million shares worth RM1.207 billion from 1.045 billion shares valued at RM1.638 billion Thursday.
 
Among the counters that bucked the trend were DiGi, which rose RM1.12 to RM23.60, Panasonic which perked 26 sen to RM16.86 and Yikon adding 17.5 sen to 57.5 sen.
 
Topping the actives was KNM, which shed 1.5 sen to 64.5 sen with Privasia edging down half a sen to nine sen and Ramunia flat at 17.5 sen.
 
Among heavyweights, Maybank shed seven sen to RM7.44, Sime Darby fell three sen to RM8.69 while CIMB Group slid 10 sen to RM13.98 and Maxis inched down one sen to RM5.29 with Tenaga Nasional flat at RM8.47.
 
Total volume on the main market fell to 636.793 million shares worth RM1.165 billion from the 898.819 million shares worth RM1.595 billion Thursday.
 
Volume on the ACE market, however, jumped to 74.148 million shares worth RM11.04 million from 51.658 million shares valued at RM10 million previously.
 
Warrants transactions dropped to 56.347 million shares worth RM12.187 million against 74.439 million shares valued at RM15.725 million Thursday.
 
Consumer products accounted for 22.573 million shares traded on the main market, industrial products 194.796 million, construction 52.280 million, trade and services 129.351 million, technology 28.376 million, infrastructure 11.540 million, finance 73.530 million, hotels 3.407 million, properties 45.690 million, plantations 9.596 million, mining 12,600, REITs 2.603 million and closed/fund 34,000.
 
INDONESIA
 
The Jakarta Composite Index retreated on Friday below the 2,900 level as investors opted to lock in recent gains.
 
The JCI lost 21.86 points, or 0.8%, to close at 2,878.67, falling for the first time in five days. The index gained 1.2% on the week. It closed above 2,900 for the first time ever on Thursday.
 
On Friday, some 4.89 billion shares worth Rp 3.9 trillion ($432.9 million) changed hands, with decliners leading gainers by 120 to 65.
 
The rupiah was little changed on Friday, trading at 9,008 to the Dollar at stock market close, compared with 9,003 on Thursday.
 
The rupiah has gained 4.3% this year and on Thursday touched 8,990, the strongest level since July 2007.
 
Foreign investors have bought a net $532 million worth of Indonesian equities so far this year, according to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
 
Indonesia's foreign-exchange reserves may rise above $80 billion in 2010 compared with a previous estimate of $76 billion, Darmin Nasution, acting governor of Bank Indonesia, said on Tuesday.
 
Prakriti said, "The recent increase in the foreign reserves target suggests the central bank is expecting a larger balance-of-payments surplus this year, which will be rupiah supportive."
 
Among stocks on Friday, PT Bank Mandiri lost 2.9%, while PT Bank Negara Indonesia fell 2.1%. Coal miner PT Bumi Resources shed 1% and oil-and-gas services company PT Elnusa dropped 6.8%.
 
Bucking the trend were coal miner PT Adaro Energy, which rose 1.1%, and PT United Tractors, which rose 1.3%.
 
THAILAND
 
Thai shares extended their recent losses, falling 3.3% Friday as the political upheaval showed no sign of abating, leaving investors cautious about holding onto stocks heading into the weekend.
 
Government bonds continue to rise as funds exited the stock market, though the baht made some modest ground, helped by strength in Asian currencies generally.
 
After three days of closure for the Songkran festival, a lack of progress towards a clear resolution to the political crisis had the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index ending Friday at its session low of 736.16 points. That's after the index fell 3.6% on Monday, with investors unnerved by violent clashes last weekend between the armed forces and anti government protesters that saw at least 23 people killed and hundreds injured.
 
The SET will likely stay under pressure on Monday, with the rights to receive dividends on several heavyweight banking stocks also due to expire next week.
 
Decliners outpaced advancers 301 to 62 on active volume worth THB29.76 billion. Among the most active stocks were PTT, falling 3.5% to THB247, with Kasikornbank down 7.9% at THB84.75 and Advanced Info Service off 6.0% at THB74.
 
Thousands of red-shirt wearing protesters, allied with deposed former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, have pledged to continue their rally unless Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva dissolves parliament and calls new elections. Abhisit has so far resisted demands for immediate polls, though those close to him have indicated he may be willing to call elections for around October.
 
Commandos stormed a Bangkok hotel Friday where leaders of the Red Shirts movement were holed up, but the mission ended in dramatic failure after the suspects fled. One leading Red Shirt climbed down an electric cable from the third floor of the hotel before being rushed away by jubilant supporters, despite the presence of dozens of riot police nearby.
 
In currency trade the baht strengthened against the US Dollar, tracking ongoing gains in its Asian peers after Wednesday's unprecedented double monetary tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The MAS, which uses its exchange rate as its policy tool, revalued upward its targeted trading band for the Singapore Dollar, and shifted its stance to a "modest and gradual appreciation."
 
The US Dollar fell to a session low of THB32.23 late, from THB32.33 Monday in Asia. Still, "portfolio outflows continue to weigh on sentiment for the baht. Given the political uncertainty, the baht probably won't be able to catch up with the recent strength seen in most other regional units," said a dealer at a local bank in Bangkok.
 
Most government bonds gained further on buying by offshore investors, said traders.
 
Bid/offer yields for the issue due March 2013 were quoted late at 2.55%/2.50%, from 2.63%/2.60% Monday, with the May 2015 yield at 3.24%/3.23% from 3.38%/3.36%, the November 2016 issue at 3.42%/3.39%, versus 3.51%/3.49% and the June 2019 yield at 3.53%/3.51%, from 3.67%/3.65%.
 
Yields are expected to continue falling Monday, though traders said the pace of declines may slow.
 
The market will be watching the Bank of Thailand's rate decision and accompanying statement from its policy meeting on April 21. All 12 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the central bank to stand pat at the meeting while most expect it to start hiking rates in early June. 
 
INDIA
 
Weak Asian markets and cautiousness ahead of the central bank's monetary-policy meeting next week led Indian shares to close lower Friday, snapping their nine-week winning streak.
 
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index lost 48.08 points, or 0.3%, to end at 17,591.18 after trading between 17,529.55 and 17,663.99. The benchmark fell 1.9% for the week after it closed down in each of the four trading days--Wednesday was a holiday for the local market--but is up 1.2% so far in April.
 
On the National Stock Exchange, the main 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty index fell 11 points, or 0.2%, to 5,262.60.
 
Trading volume on the BSE fell to INR44.58 billion from Thursday's INR48.28 billion. Decliners outnumbered gainers 1,704 to 1,179, while 124 stocks were unchanged.
 
Ten out of 15 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise its borrowing and lending rates by 25 basis points Tuesday.
 
The Indian rupee has appreciated 4.9% to the US Dollar so far in 2010.
 
Also, India's official forecast for this year's monsoon rains is expected to be released soon. The June-September season is important for the country as about 60% of its farmlands is rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. India experienced the lowest monsoon rainfall in 37 years in 2009, hurting the production of summer-sown crops such as rice and sugarcane.
 
As many as 22 of Sensex's 30 components closed lower with interest-rate-sensitive stocks ending mostly down.
 
DLF, India's largest real estate company by sales, slipped 2.4% to INR330 to be among the biggest percentage losers. It fell, like other real estate stocks, on worries of a rate hike and also on profit-taking after soaring 9.5% in the month through Thursday.
 
Among auto stocks, motorcycle maker Hero Honda declined 1.6% to INR1,919.50, while Mahindra & Mahindra shed 1.5% to INR502.65.
 
Financial stocks traded largely weak on policy concerns.
 
Mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp. dropped 0.7% to INR2,677.85, while State Bank of India slid 0.4% at INR2,046.80. However, ICICI Bank ended 0.4% up at INR921.65 after falling 2.6% in the previous session.
 
Infrastructure company Jaiprakash Associates, down 2.5% at INR147.95, and power equipment maker Bharat Heavy Electricals, down 1.5% at INR2,492.50, were the other major losers. 
 
AUSTRALIA
 
The Australian share market retreated slightly below 5000 points Friday as after hours falls in Google and Advanced Micro Devices triggered a pullback in offshore markets, leaving investors slightly cautious ahead of US trading.
 
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 17.2 points, or 0.3%, at 4984.7, after falling to 4973.4. Share trading volume remained solid, albeit lighter than Thursday, when the market hit a 19-month high of 5025.1.
 
Locally, cyclicals took a breather, while defensives mostly outperformed.
 
In the materials sector, BHP fell 0.8% to A$43.54, while in energy Woodside fell 1.6% to A$46.72.
 
Banks were mixed, with Commonwealth Bank up 0.9% to A$59.83 and ANZ down 1.1% to A$25.69.
 
In consumer staples, Wesfarmers fell 1.1% to A$32.39 and in the consumer discretionary sector News Corp., which owns Dow Jones Newswires, fell 2.3% to A$19.31.
 
Macarthur Coal surged 8.3% to A$16.54 after Peabody Energy trumped New Hope with a A$16-a-share bid, valuing the company at A$4.07 billion.
 
Substantial shareholders of Macarthur, POSCO and ArcelorMittal said the bid was worth considering and Macarthur said it would engage with Peabody.
 
The Australian share market is only up 2.3% so far in 2010, while the S&P 500 is up 8.7%. From respective bear market lows, the gains were 60% and 82%, respectively. 
 
NEW ZEALAND
 
New Zealand shares ended flat Friday in what brokers said was a creditable performance in view of weakness in other Asian region markets.
 
The NZX-50 Index ended down 9.81 points at 3,311.31. It gained 0.3% over the week.
 
Craigs Investment Partners broker James Porteous attributed the relatively good performance to a reverse of Thursday's events when the New Zealand market fell, mainly due to Telecom lowering its profit guidance, while other markets rallied. He said volumes remained very light and with a lack of corporate news, no clear trend was apparent.
 
Telecom managed to stabilize as bargain hunters moved in and closed flat at NZ$2.18 after falling 2.9% Thursday. It didn't take on fresh losses when Fitch Ratings cut its credit rating on the stock to A-minus from A and put it on negative outlook as the market had already reacted to the lower earnings forecast Thursday.
 
Resins maker Nuplex Industries finished off a miserable week, losing 2.7% to NZ$3.26, as investors continued to quit in the wake of the Securities Commission decision Wednesday to sue the company and its directors for alleged breach of disclosure rules.
 
In contrast, fast food chain Restaurant Brands, the index's best performer last year, stretched to a new 23-year high, ending up 2.2% at NZ$2.31. It has risen over 150% in the past 12 months.
 
Children's clothes retailer Pumpkin Patch rose 1.3% to NZ$2.27, aided by US March retail sales, which were up 0.6% on month and rose 6.4% on year.
 
New Zealand Oil & Gas fell 3.1% to NZ$1.56, reflecting a fall in oil prices. First NZ Capital analyst Jason Familton raised its 12-month price target on the stock to NZ$1.74 from NZ$1.60 reflecting a higher medium-term outlook to oil price forecasts.
 
Familton said a successful completion of refinancing by Pike River Coal is key to New Zealand Oil & Gas' price because of its near one-third stake in the coal miner. Investors will also keep an eye on the results of New Zealand Oil's current oil drilling program.
 
Air New Zealand fell 0.7% to NZ$1.41. The carrier has rallied strongly this month and was possibly down on profit taking, Porteous said.
 
Earlier Friday, the airline said it is canceling flights to and from London due to the closures of airspace over much of Europe after a huge cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano covered much of Europe.      
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesI have been recommending Agriculturals as you know for a few months now and it seems to be paying off.
 
Corn and soyabean prices made strong gains this week as hopes of higher prices and the busy planting season led farmers to hold crops back.
 
In North America, the largest corn growing region, farmers have just begun planting this season's seeds, leaving them with little time to sell off old grain.
 
CBOT corn for July delivery rose 4.1% to $3.72 a bushel in the week. July soyabeans rose 3.7% to $9.97¼ a bushel. July wheat rose 3.2% to $4.94¾ a bushel.
 
While grains have been strong, analysts do not foresee a supply crunch as the growing season unfolds.
 
Oil fell during the week as it responded to downward pressure from forecasts of fresh supply. The effect was comPounded by a late hit from Friday's US fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, which has an oil trading desk.
 
US crude for May delivery settled at $83.24 US a barrel, falling $2.27, or 2.65%, the largest one-day percentage loss since Feb. 5. Intraday on Friday, prices fell as low as $82.52.
 
The June Brent contract fell $1.60 to settle at $85.99 a barrel. The May London Brent crude oil contract reached 18-month highs before it expired Thursday, jumping to a premium to the front-month US crude contract of over $1.60.
 
The 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index fell over one%, backing away from Wednesday's 12-week highs.
 
Adding to the pressure on oil early Friday was news that Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers showed US consumer sentiment took a negative turn in early April due to a grim outlook on income and jobs.
 
Base metals gained on the London Metal Exchange, with aluminium, nickel and tin hitting their highest levels since mid-2008, though they fell sharply late on Friday. Chinese imports and gross domestic product data broadly supported the bullish view that the world's fastest-growing large economy will continue to drive demand for the metals.
 
Aluminium rose 3.7% during the week to touch a peak of $2,494 a tonne, its highest since September 2008. Nickel hit a high of $27,544 a tonne on Friday, up 9.2%. It is up 45% this year. 
 
Gold fell 2% on Friday to $US1,133.65 an ounce, with sentiment hit by Dollar strength and news the US Securities and Exchange Commission charged Goldman Sachs Group Inc with fraud on subprime mortgages.
 
Spot gold was bid at $US1,136.25 an ounce at 1548 GMT, against $US1,157.95 late in New York on Thursday. The metal earlier hit its lowest point since April 7.
 
US gold futures for June delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $US23 to $US1,137.3 an ounce.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 Asian currencies rose, with the Philippine Peso and Singapore Dollar posting the best weeks in at least four months, after reports showed economic growth in the region is gathering pace.
 
The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index reached a 20-month high after China's economy expanded at the fastest pace in almost three years in the first quarter. Singapore revalued its currency amid the quickest growth since 1975, fueling speculation other central banks will tighten policy to curb inflation. Inflows into emerging-market bonds increased to a record as investors favour higher-yielding assets.
 
The Peso strengthened 1.3% this week to 44.40 per Dollar, its best performance since 4 December. The Singapore Dollar gained 1.3% to S$1.3726, the biggest advance since 9 October last year. Taiwan's Dollar appreciated 0.7% to NT$31.39 and the South Korean Won rose 0.7% to 1,110.23.
 
The Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region's 10 most- traded currencies excluding the Yen, reached 113.33 Thursday, the highest level since August 2008, after China reported its economy expanded 11.9% from a year earlier. Singapore's gross domestic product increased 32.1% in the three months to March 31 compared with the previous quarter.
 
Emerging-market bond funds received an unprecedented $1.8 billion in the week to April 14 as high-yielding debt attracted global investors away from stocks, according to EPFR Global.
 
Currencies in emerging markets have appreciated this month, boosting returns on local bonds, and at the same time helping to curb inflation and preserve debt's fixed payments.
 
Elsewhere in the region, the Indonesian Rupiah rose 0.2% this week to 9,000 per Dollar. The Thai Baht and China's RMB were little changed at 32.24 and 6.8255, respectively. Vietnam's Dong traded at 19,050 compared 19,040 a week ago.
 
The New Zealand Dollar is higher against the US Dollar, but it seems as though this currency is just showing some strength after relatively underperforming over the past several sessions.
 
The ongoing concerns over the state of the Greek economy and speculation that a bailout will soon be requested, despite efforts from various officials and the Greek PM himself, have not helped to bolster global macro sentiment, and continue to weigh on the market. Greece's FinMin has now officially summoned the IMF, EU, and ECB to Athens on Monday, while Morgan Stanley has come out warning that the Greek debt crisis couls spark a chain of events that ultimately leads to Germany's withdrawal from the EMU.
 
Late Friday, the Euro was at $1.3506 from $1.3577 late Thursday, according to EBS via CQG. The Dollar was at Y92.15 from Y93.04, while the Euro was at Y124.47 from Y126.31. The UK Pound was at $1.5393 from $1.5498. The Dollar was at CHF1.0606 from CHF1.0563.
 
Sterling lost ground on Friday after the first ever televised leaders' debate in the UK highlighted the possibility that no party would win overall control in the coming general election.
 
The Pound fell as much as 0.8% against the Dollar in early trading as traders in Asia reacted to the debate.
 
Meanwhile, the Yen rallied as renewed fears over Greece's sovereign debt crisis and tighter monetary policy in China left investors more risk averse, fuelling haven demand for the Japanese currency.
 
Greece requested official talks with the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, creating further uncertainty about a potential bail-out.
 
Speculation also intensified over whether Greece might be forced to cancel their US Dollar debt issue if not enough interest is shown.
 
The Japanese currency was up 0.6% against the Euro at Y125.54, 0.4% stronger against the Pound at Y143.34 and had also managed to gain 0.2% against the Dollar at Y92.84.
 
Lingering concerns over the Eurozone meant that the Euro was also down against Sterling in spite of speculation over a hung parliament. The single currency was 0.2% lower against the Pound at £0.8757.
 
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.787 from 80.475.
 
Growth-sensitive currencies were also hurt by the flight from risk: The Dollar soared more than 1.3% to its highest level since March 31 against the Canadian Dollar, and gaining more than 0.8% against the Australian currency.
 
The Japanese Yen, which is seen as the ultimate safe-haven, was the only major rival that gained on the US Dollar, with the greenback dropping nearly 1% against the Yen by late trading.
 
The South African Rand remained on the back foot on Friday afternoon as the Euro succumbed once again to worries over the Greek debt situation.
 
The Rand was bid at 7.36 to the Dollar from 7.2933 at its previous close. It was bid at 9.9696 to the Euro from its previous close of 9.9022 and was at 11.3712 against the Sterling from 11.2750.
 
Separately, China will gradually adopt a floating exchange-rate system under management, China President Hu Jintao said in a speech, which was posted on the Web site of the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Friday.
 
Comments made by Hu Thursday at the summit of Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as BRIC, showed that China doesn't want an immediate exit of the RMB from defacto pegging to the Dollar that resumed in 2008, letting the currency rise as is being urged by some foreign governments.
 
This leads me nicely into my currency close here in China where the RMB on the OTC market finished to 6.8256 to the US Dollar, from Thursday's close of 6.8259.      
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina unveiled restrictions on property speculation on Thursday as economic growth accelerated to 11.9% in the first quarter from the same period last year.
 
The latest data underlined the country's rapid recovery from the global economic crisis but raised questions about the risks of overheating.
 
The economy expanded at its fastest rate in nearly three years - and more quickly than economists had expected - putting fresh pressure on the authorities to consider tougher tightening measures, including appreciating the exchange rate and interest rate rises.
 
In spite of rising fears of overheating, consumer price inflation dipped to 2.4% last month from 2.7% in February, according to data published on Thursday. But factory-gate inflation continued to accelerate, increasing half a percentage point to 5.9%.
 
First-quarter gross domestic product figures came out a day after the government said housing prices had increased 11.7% during the past 12 months.
 
The growth was the fastest since the data series began five years ago and prompted fresh concerns about a potential bubble in the property market.
 
The State Council said anyone buying a second home would need to put up a 50% deposit, up from 40%, while the mortgage rate for second homes was also increased. The down payment for first homes bigger than 90 sq m was set at a minimum of 30%.
 
Although the first-quarter numbers reflected in part the slump in the economy at the same time last year, sequential growth was also strong. The economy grew 11.3% from the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, Goldman Sachs said.
 
The government has already taken some steps to reduce the stimulus it is injecting into the economy, including much tighter control over bank lending in March. However, domestic concerns about potential inflation come at a time of growing international pressure to abandon China's de facto currency peg against the US Dollar.
 
***************************************
 
China passes an historic milestone on the path to a market-driven economy on Friday as stock index futures begin trading on the mainland.
 
After more than three years of practice trading, China's stock market regulators are allowing select mainlanders to trade equity-based derivatives in their home market.
 
The introduction of index futures is part of a broader transformation of the mainland stock markets this year: short selling and margin trading were introduced on a trial basis on March 31.
 
Such tools are important to allow traders to profit from falling as well as rising markets, and to hedge their positions against downturns in China's notoriously volatile markets, which surged 80% last year after falling 65% the year before.
 
Commodities such as gold, soybeans and fuel oil have been traded in Chinese futures markets for years, but the launch of stock index futures is particularly significant because they will be China's first financial futures since the mid-90s.
 
China's government bond futures market collapsed in 1995, just two years after it started, as market manipulation spun out of control amid a lack of regulatory oversight.
 
The first index futures, agreements to buy or sell an index at a pre-set value on an agreed date, will be based on the CSI 300 index, which tracks the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. The first contracts will be for May, June, September and December.
 
In a front-page editorial earlier this week, the China Securities Journal hailed index futures as a "milestone" that will have a stabilising effect on Chinese markets and enable them to evolve "from prosperity to maturity".
 
But Beijing's fear of the risks involved is so great that it plans to keep most players out of the market, at least initially.
 
Chinese officials say that for now, risk prevention is their top priority. "Derivatives like futures are a 'double-edged sword' that is not only a tool to manage risks but is also a source of risks unless it is used appropriately," the People's Daily said last week.
 
Securities regulators have introduced stringent requirements to keep speculators away. Index futures investors must pass an examination - broadly equivalent of the UK driving test - and meet tough criteria for educational background, credit history, monthly salary and liquid assets.
 
They must make a minimum deposit of Rmb500,000 ($73,238) to open a trading account, and prove they have completed at least 20 mock stock index futures trades or executed at least 10 commodity futures trades in the past three years. They also must pay cash deposits equivalent to 15% of the contract value for May and June contracts and 18% for longer-term contracts. Foreigners are not allowed to trade index futures.
 
The restrictions are mostly designed to keep out the small retail investors who are the lifeblood of China's volatile markets - but also the most speculative investors in markets.
 
Official figures released earlier this week show that only about 6,000 index futures trading accounts have yet been opened. Most have so far been opened by commodity traders, experienced in futures investing.
 
As a result, most market analysts say the immediate impact of the move is likely to be small.
 
To qualify for futures trading, Chinese investors must pass a 30-minute examination, among other conditions. They must correctly answer at least 24 out of 30 multiple choice questions.
 
In time, brokerages hope regulators will encourage greater investor participation by introducing smaller versions of the futures contracts (like "mini" S&P 500 index futures in the US) or by reducing the required margin or the required capital needed to open an account.
 
The goal is to improve capital allocation in the Chinese economy, and bring the Chinese stock market closer into line with western norms - part of a drive to transform Shanghai into a global financial centre by 2020.
 
Chinese regulators have high hopes that the introduction of more sophisticated forms of trading will improve market stability, even though the existence of such tools in Western markets did little to guarantee stability during the global financial crisis.
 
Chinese brokerages are predicting that index futures trading will boost equity market trading, saying China could overtake the US as the world's largest in terms of trading value.
 
Hedge funds and other institutional investors will have a greater incentive to trade once they can hedge their risks. Experiences in other markets such as Taiwan and Japan suggest that trading volumes could, in the long term, increase by as much as 50%, according to Morgan Stanley.
 
But by barring foreigners from index futures trading, China's regulators underline a fact that outsiders often ignore: only less than 1% of the Chinese market capitalisation is currently open to foreign investors.
 
China remains largely insulated from the outside world, and the introduction of new sophisticated trading tools will not change that - at least not overnight.
 
***************************************
 
 Standard Chartered Plc may expand its global markets team in China by 40% by 2012, as the nation opens its financial markets to attract foreign investors, said John Tan, head of the division.
 
The UK bank, which makes most of its profit in emerging markets, will increase its fixed-income and currency operation's headcount to 140 by 2012 from about 100 now, Tan said in an interview on April 14. He said China will probably allow the RMB to appreciate "in the near future."
 
"The market is opening up, and we are positive that it would bring along a lot of opportunities," said Shanghai-based Tan. "China is a huge market with big potential."
 
The central bank on April 2 pledged to gradually loosen controls on cross-border capital flows and appropriately increase foreign investors' presence in financial markets. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the nation's currency regulator, in October raised the limit on foreign currency quotas for investors under the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors program to $1 billion from $800 million.
 
Tan predicted the currency may strengthen as much as 3% by the end of this year as the central bank guides its reference rate higher. That was smaller than the median estimate of a 4.2% gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 analysts. The RMB's 12-month non-deliverable forwards traded at 6.6085, reflecting bets the currency will strengthen 3.3% from the spot rate of 6.8260 in the coming year.
 
China said last year locally incorporated foreign banks would be allowed to underwrite corporate bonds with maturities of no more than one year and medium-term notes, according to Tan. Standard Chartered hopes to obtain the license "very soon," he said.
 
Standard Chartered in January was given approval by China's regulators to become the third foreign bank to operate as a market maker in China's interbank bond market.
 
China fully opened its banking industry to overseas companies in December 2006, sparking a rush among foreign banks including HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Standard Chartered to open branches to compete for the nation's $7.2 trillion corporate and household savings.
 
China may allow overseas companies to be listed on a stock exchange in Shanghai by the end of this year, the official China Daily said this week, citing Xu Quan, deputy director of the city's financial service office. Standard Chartered will "support" the central government's aim to build a global finance center in the city by 2020, Tan said.
 
The central bank has prevented the RMB from strengthening since July 2008 to shield exporters from the global recession and a contraction in world trade. China's economicgrowth accelerated to 11.9% in the first quarter, the fastest pace in almost three years, the government said Thursday.
 
Chinese banking executives blame the RMB peg for disrupting money markets. Qin Xiao, chairman of China Merchants Bank Co., said on March 3 in Beijing lenders can't set market-based interest rates while the central bank is defending the peg.
 
"Short-term RMB fluctuation might provide some demand from our clients on hedging solutions, but has nothing to do with our long-term business planning," said Standard Chartered's Tan.
 
***************************************
 
China, the biggest producer of greenhouse gases, vowed to "vigorously" develop a cleaner economy by using energy more efficiently by investing in research and development projects to cut carbon emissions.
 
Climate change represents a threat to Chinese economic Development, and laws should be strengthened to meet climate targets, the Chinese president's special envoy Xie Zhenhua wrote in the China Economic Herald.
 
"The scale of economic destruction would be equivalent to that of the two world wars and the Great Depression combined" if global temperatures rise by 3 degrees (5.4 Fahrenheit) to 4 degrees Celsius, Xie said. "Human beings and the Earth cannot afford such disasters."
 
Xie's comments came as US senators prepare draft legislation to limit emissions after the country promised to cut carbon 17% by 2020 as part of the Copenhagen Accord. China and the US account for 40% of global anthropogenic CO2 pollution.
 
Chinese delegates stayed neutral at climate change talks in Bonn last weekend as US negotiator Jonathan Pershing fended off efforts by developing countries to sink the climate pact negotiated during two weeks of talks in Copenhagen last year.
 
Officials from more than 190 countries tussled in Germany over whether the Copenhagen Accord, backed by almost two-thirds of the parties, can serve as a foundation for a worldwide agreement to limit climate change. It was drawn up outside the official UN negotiating process in December after the broader talks involving all the nations stalled.
 
Industrialized countries must shoulder the blame for 80% of the greenhouse gas emissions since 1750, while China's "reasonable increase" in greenhouse gases will allow the country to develop, Xie said. China plans to cut output of CO2 per unit of gross domestic product by 40% to 45% from 2005 levels by 2020.    
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 The US stock market will begin next week in a less heady state, thanks to the volcanic eruption that hit Wall Street Friday in the form of Securities and Exchange Commission charges against Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
 
As I have mentioned in recent weeks, the market was starting to look for anything to correct on, and this was about as good as it could have gotten really.
 
Catching Wall Street off guard, federal regulators charged Goldman and one of its vice presidents with failing to disclose to investors key information related to mortgage-backed securities.
 
The shocker proved just the impetus to a market looking for a reason to retreat after a nearly uninterrupted seven-week climb that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday to its highest close since Sept. 19, 2008.
 
On Friday, two of the three the major indexes eked out a seventh consecutive week of gains. Friday's bombshell dented, but not erased, the gains built during the prior six-day rise.
 
The Dow fell 125.91 points, or 1.1%, to 11,018.66, leaving it with a weekly gain of 0.2%.
 
This will continue to be bearish for Goldman and I wouldn't be surprised if another financial came out, and the SEC went after them too. But beyond that, I don't see how this can really spill over into anything affecting the economy in the US moving forward as I'm not sure how to any real extent this would have any impact on the economy as it isn't changing the recovery, it is purely historical.
 
The stock market could have a correction of as much as 10% in the wake of the Goldman news, but unless there is something the market does not know about, it's unlikely to trigger a major downturn I think - the US is just too resilient to negative news currently (at their own longer-term cost I hasten to add).
 
So the coming week in the US has to start on a negative footing and it will be interesting to see how heavily Asia drops on the open Monday.
 
On Monday, Dow components IBM and Citigroup will report their quarterly results. 
 
While earnings are expected to draw the greatest market attention, the economic data next week will also be a factor, with leading indicators for March slated for release on Monday, and data on existing and new home sales coming Friday.
 
Weekly jobless claims are likely to draw more than their usual attention, with analysts waiting to see whether recent rises were the result of data being disrupted by the Easter holiday
 
The state of the economy is poised to dominate Britain's political agenda next week when a raft of economic data culminating in figures for first-quarter GDP will show if the country's recovery is on track.
 
With the outcome of Britain's May 6 election in the balance, unemployment data on Wednesday and government borrowing figures on Thursday will also be politically charged. Statistics for inflation and retail sales may be less so.
 
First quarter GDP figures, due next Friday, are forecast to show growth of 0.4%, the same as in the last three months of 2009 when Britain finally exited recession.
 
However, the impact of unusually heavy snow at the start of the year means uncertainty is high and there is plenty of scope for surprises.
 
Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who was finance minister for 10 years before taking over from Tony Blair in 2007, has made much of his economic credentials in his campaign to lead Labour to a fourth term in office.
 
The opposition Conservatives, whose once comfortable poll lead has shrunk since the end of last year, will seize on any GDP disappointment as evidence that Labour's pro-growth policies have failed.
 
But a surprisingly weak reading could prove a double-edged sword as it would also make it harder for them to sustain their argument that debt-cutting measures should be brought forward.
 
All Britain's main political parties agree that tough action is needed to bring down the bloated deficit, running at more than 11% of GDP, so the debate has focused on timing.
 
The Conservatives say action should start this year while ruling Labour and the Liberal Democrats -- Britain's third party enjoying a boost after this week's leaders TV debate -- say the bulk of spending cuts should be delayed until recovery is assured.
 
The parlous state of Britain's public finances are likely to make headlines again on Thursday, with data expected to show record government borrowing in March.
 
March figures traditionally show the biggest deficit of the financial year and analysts polled by Reuters expect a deficit of 24 billion Pounds ($38.5 billion), almost 4 billion Pounds higher than the same month last year.
 
The government will try to accentuate the positive, noting that the pace of deterioration is slowing and the deficit for the whole 2009/10 financial year, which ended in March, looks to be well below the level it forecast as recently as December.
 
Unemployment data on Wednesday should likewise point to an improving trend. Claimant count unemployment fell by 32,300 in February -- its biggest drop since November 1997 -- and analysts expect another 10,000 fall in March.
 
Inflation figures on Tuesday are likely to be less explosive given interest rates are set by the independent Bank of England.
 
Analysts expect inflation to have picked up to 3.2% in March, more than a full percentage point above the central bank's target, from 3.0% in February.
 
The BoE remains confident that inflation will fall back to 2% by the end of the year: I'm not at all as confident in this myself.
 
Next week's EU economic calendar includes the Monday release of February construction output expected at -1% compared to 2.2% last month.
 
On Tuesday German March Producer Price Index will be released expected at 0.1% compared to flat last month along with EU February current account expected at - €12.3bln compared to minus -€16.7bln last month. Also Tuesday German ZEW survey will also be released expected at 45.2 compared to -44.5 last month.
 
On Thursday EU manufacturing and services PMI for April be released. The manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 56.7 from 56.3 and the services index is expected to improve to 54.5 from 53.7.
 
Then on Friday German April IFO business climate survey will be released expected at 98.6 compared to 98.1 last month along with EU February industrial orders expected that -1% compared to -2% last month.
 
All things considered, I see it being a negative week for Europe in particular next week.
 
Next week's Japanese economic calendar includes the Monday release of February tertiary activity expected at 1.4% compared to -0.8% last month along with April consumer confidence expected at 40 compared to 39.8 last month.
 
Tuesday sees revised February leading indicators will be released expected at 1% compared to 2.2% in the original report. March trade balance and February all industry activity will be released Thursday. March trade balance is expected at ¥750bln compared to ¥651bln last month. All industry activity is expected to decline by 0.4% compared to the 3.8% rise last month.
 
Next week's Australian economic calendar includes Thursday's release of March new car sales expected to rise by 3% compared to -1.9% last month.
 
On Friday Q1 export and import prices will be released. Export prices are expected to rise by 0.7% compared to a 1.7% decline last quarter and imports prices are expected to fall by 0.6% compared to a 4.3% decline last quarter.
 
All told, we have now got a 'cat amongst the pigeons' scenario and the 'cat' in this context is the SEC.
 
I see next week there being a lot of mud-slinging in the US financial sector; a lot of 'backside-covering' in US Government (particularly those involved in the TARP programme and the money provided to Goldman Sachs) and a lot of uncertainty in the rest of the world.
 
Interesting times ahead for sure and potentially we might see that correction I have been saying is coming, gather pace as the coming week progresses.     
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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