Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
How do you hurt one of the largest global investment and banking companies in the world that have by one way or another, 'acquired' (and I use that word loosely) billions and billions of Dollars, Euro and Pounds when the rest of the world had their heads ..... elsewhere? You fine them! You take back a small percentage of what they 'acquired' and then of course allow them to continue dealing with the general public because now that they have been fined, they must overnight become 'trustworthy'. What poppycock! For those non-English amongst you reading this Newsletter today; Poppycock - anglicized form of the Dutch pappekak, which literally means soft dung or diarrhea (from Dutch pap pap + kak dung) - is an interjection meaning "nonsense" or "balderdash"! And no, I am not going to give you the definition of 'Balderdash'. You tell me if the major news this week is not 'poppycock': The Securities and Exchange Commission has announced a $550m settlement of its civil fraud case against Goldman Sachs in a move that closes the most high-profile regulatory action related to the financial crisis. The SEC called the penalty the largest ever by a Wall Street firm and Goldman acknowledged using incomplete information in its marketing materials and said it would "reform its business practices" The SEC and Goldman have been in settlement talks for at least three months over accusations that the Wall Street bank misled investors in a mortgage-backed security. The bank said in the settlement papers: "Goldman acknowledges that the marketing materials for the ABACUS 2007-AC1 transaction contained incomplete information. In particular, it was a mistake for the Goldman marketing materials to state that the reference portfolio was 'selected by' ACA Management LLC without disclosing the role of Paulson & Co. Inc. in the portfolio selection process and that Paulson's economic interests were adverse to CDO investors. Goldman regrets that the marketing materials did not contain that disclosure". Legal experts say the settlement could also require the bank to split the jobs of chairman and chief executive, currently held by Lloyd Blankfein and make other top-level personnel changes. Robert Khuzami, the SEC's enforcement director, said, "This settlement is a stark lesson to Wall Street firms that no product is too complex, and no investor too sophisticated, to avoid a heavy price if a firm violates the fundamental principles of honest treatment and fair dealing." In its original charges, filed in mid-April, the SEC alleged investors in the collaterised debt obligation, known as Abacus, had lost about $1bn. The hedge fund that asked Goldman to create the security, Paulson & Co, made about $1bn, the SEC alleged. The SEC said that litigation would continue against Fabrice Tourre, the Goldman Vice president who was charged separately. Shares of Goldman Sachs jumped 4 per cent to $151.47 in after-market trading. Now HELLO, am I missing something here? Goldman Sachs, a company that you are supposedly meant to trust, gets fined $550m USD for basically cheating people and what happens, their share price goes UP! Something, somewhere, is seriously askew if this is meant to be the real world! On to the REAL numbers for the week as I watch Goldman Sachs' share price increase as I am typing ..... 307 million Americans have great faith in their largest investment bank for sure! |
| US Markets
How the US did this week ..... | |
US stocks slid, wiping out a weekly advance, as revenue at Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and General Electric Co. missed analyst estimates and a gauge of consumer confidence slid to the lowest in a year. Bank of America tumbled 9.2%, the most since June 2009, while Citigroup retreated 6.3% and GE lost 4.6%. Google Inc. sank 7% after earnings trailed the average analyst estimate following a surge in spending. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable firm in Wall Street history, rallied 0.7% after agreeing to pay $550 million and change its business practices to settle federal government claims it misled investors. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 2.9% to 1,064.88 at 4 p.m. in New York, the biggest drop this month. It fell 1.2% this week, erasing its gain after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell more than economists estimated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 261.41 points, or 2.5%, to 10,097.90 Friday. The S&P 500 climbed 7.2% from July 2 through Thursday amid optimism that corporate earnings would signal the economic recovery is sustainable. S&P 500 companies are projected to increase profits by 34% in 2010 and 18% in 2011, the fastest two-year gain since 1995, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Of the 23 companies in the S&P 500 that reported since July 12, all but three have topped forecasts for earnings-per-share, Bloomberg data show. Revenue for the group that has reported so far has increased 2.6%, with 17 of 23 companies beating analyst estimates, according to the data. Bank of America, the largest US bank by assets, slid 9.2% to $13.98 to lead financial companies to the biggest decline among 10 industry groups in the S&P 500. Citigroup, the third-biggest, retreated 6.3% to $3.90. GE, the world's largest maker of jet engines and power-plant turbines, fell 4.6% to $14.55. The three companies beat analyst estimates for per-share earnings while missing on sales. |
| European Markets
What has been happening in Europe this week ..... | |
European stocks retreated for a third day, led by a selloff in banks, after Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. reported revenue that missed analysts' estimates and US consumer confidence fell more than forecast. Barclays Plc, Credit Agricole SA and Credit Suisse Group AG declined more than 2.5%. RWE AG and E.ON AG led utilities lower after Germany proposed a tax on nuclear power plants. Roche Holding AG sank 4.2% as US regulators said the drugmaker's top-seller Avastin didn't slow breast tumors in new studies as much as in earlier tests used to win approval. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.9% to 248.11, erasing the measure's gains for the week even as company earnings from Alcoa Inc. to Intel Corp. beat estimates. The gauge has fallen 8.8% from this year's high on April 15 amid concern that the global economic recovery is losing steam. National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets, except Greece, with stocks extending losses after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of US consumer sentiment for July slid to the lowest level in a year. Germany's DAX lost 1.8%, France's CAC 40 sank 2.3% and the UK's FTSE 100 slid 1%. GERMANY German stocks retreated for the second straight day, leading the benchmark DAX Index to a weekly fall, after a report showed confidence among US consumers slumped to the lowest level in a year. E.ON AG and RWE AG, Germany's largest utilities, fell more than 4% after the government proposed higher taxes on nuclear power plant operators. Deutsche Bank AG declined 3.1 perecent as financial stocks tumbled. K+S AG, the Kassel, Germany-based potash producer, rose 2.6% after fertilizer maker Yara International ASA reported better-than-estimated profit. The DAX fell 109.09, or 1.8%, to 6,040.27 at the close of trading in Frankfurt, bringing its weekly decline to 0.4%. The gauge has still climbed 5.7% since the European Union's May 10 unveiling of a 750 billion Euro ($969.8 billion) loan package aimed at stopping the Euro region's weakest members from defaulting. The broader HDAX Index fell 1.8% Friday. Stocks dropped as the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment slumped to 66.5, the lowest since August 2009, from 76 in June, signaling the biggest part of the world's largest economy losing momentum. E.ON AG and RWE AG, Germany's biggest utilities, lost 4.9% to 21.78 Euros and 4.3% to 52.33 Euros, respectively. Germany's planned tax on utilities that run nuclear power plants would levy 220 Euros per gram of plutonium or uranium when a reactor is refueled, Handelsblatt reported, citing a government discussion paper. Deutsche Bank fell 3.1% to 47.67 Euros, its biggest decline in more than two weeks. Commerzbank fell 2.4% to 6.23 Euros. K+S, the world's second-biggest manufacturer of potash, which is used in fertilizers, rallied 2.6% to 38.90 Euros. Yara, the largest publicly traded nitrogen-fertilizer maker, said second-quarter profit more than tripled, beating analysts' estimates. Credible consolidation of public finances is an important pre-condition for self-sustaining growth, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday.
In an editorial piece for German business daily Handelsblatt, Merkel wrote that successful budget consolidation creates more leeway for the government and private investors and allows central banks to keep interest rates low as long as possible. Moreover, it strengthens confidence, she added. Eurozone nations are in the run-up to reduce their budget deficits, which are widened by the huge stimulus measures implemented during the financial crisis, even as the Greek crisis threatened the stability of the currency bloc. The European Union rules allow a maximum budget deficit of 3% of gross domestic product. Merkel pointed out that economic growth is accelerating in Germany in line with global recovery. Hence, now is the right time to start gradual exit from emergency measures. The biggest Eurozone economy expanded 0.2% in the first quarter, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2009. The country's strong industrial and export sectors are expected to push growth in the second quarter. The German government on Thursday slashed its budget deficit estimate. The budget deficit for 2010 is seen at 4.5% of gross domestic product, down from January's estimate of 5.5% of GDP, the Finance Ministry said. The ministry, confirming a report in the Handelsblatt newspaper, said the deficit is projected to ease to 4% of GDP next year and to 3% of GDP by 2012, which is the maximum level allowed by European Union rules. The government plans to cut its combined shortfall to 1% of GDP by 2014. Data released by the Federal Statistical Office on June 30 showed an increase in Germany's budget deficit in the first quarter of 2010 to Eur 47.3 billion amid falling revenue and rising expenditure. Compared to the March quarter of 2009, this represents an increase of Eur 13.5 billion. FRANCE The CAC-40 in France closed at 3,500.16, down a hefty 2.28%. French consumer price inflation eased for the second straight month in June as energy prices rose at a slower pace. Consumer prices increased for the eighth consecutive month in June, rising 1.5% year-on-year, slightly slower than the 1.6% rise in the previous month, data from INSEE showed Tuesday. In May, inflation had slowed from April's 1.7%. The June inflation matched economists' forecasts. Prices of services increased 1.3% year-on-year. Energy prices were up 9.4% compared to a 13.6% increase in May. Food prices recorded an increase of 1.3% annually. Fuel prices climbed 13% year-on-year. The consumer price index remained unchanged in June from the previous month as cheaper food and energy offset an increase in service charges. The index recorded a flat reading in June after rising 0.1% in May. The change in prices was in line with the economists' expectations. Prices of services increased 0.2% month-on-month in June, while energy prices dipped 0.6% along with the recent drop in oil prices. Fuel prices slipped 1.1% and food prices were also down 0.2% on a monthly basis. After adjusting to seasonal variations, the CPI declined 0.1% month-on-month and on an annual basis, the index rose 1.5%. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy and administered prices was 1.4% in June, matching May's figure. The core index rose 0.1% from the previous month. Core inflation should remain on a downward trend and fall clearly below 1% in July, when the annual comparison of core prices does not include the effects of VAT cuts for restaurant that took place in July 2009 anymore, BNP Paribas economist Catherine Stephan said in a note. The harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, was stable as expected and rose 1.7% year-on-year. In May, the yearly change in the index was 1.9%. Economists were looking for a 1.8% year-on-year increase. Elsewhere Friday, Spanish statistical office INE said annual inflation fell to 1.5% from 1.8% in May. Inflation figure matched economists' expectations. Consumer prices started rising in November 2009, ending eight consecutive months of declines. Upward pressures in anticipation of the VAT hike together with a hike in tobacco prices partially offset an expected drag from energy, UniCredit economist Tullia Bucco said. Month-on-month, consumer prices were up 0.2%, in line with forecast and May's growth. Excluding food and energy prices, core annual inflation doubled to 0.4% in June. Spain's HICP annual inflation for June was 1.5%, down from 1.8% in May. Inflation eased for the first time in four months. France's current account balance, which is the broadest measure of the country's trade balance, recorded a larger deficit in May than in April, official figures show. The Bank of France said a current account deficit of Eur 4.5 billion was recorded in May. This compares to a Eur 2.9 billion deficit in the previous month. The goods account deficit widened to Eur 5.7 billion in May from Eur 4.2 billion in the preceding month. At the same time, the services account surplus fell to Eur 1.3 billion from Eur 1.5 billion. On the other hand, the income account surplus rose to Eur 2.3 billion from Eur 2.1 billion in the prior month. The transfers account deficit was unchanged at Eur 2.3 billion. Meanwhile, the financial account recorded a deficit of Eur 4.9 billion in May, down from the Eur 28.3 billion deficit in the preceding month. BELGIUM The Bel 20 in Brussels closed out the week at 2,442.75, down 2.10%. Montea SCA rose 1.1% to 20.33 Euros. The owner of warehouses in Belgium and France said it sold a 4,425 square-meter property in the Belgian town of Buggenhout for 900,000 Euros. It will record a gain of 300,000 Euros on the transaction. Belgium's trade balance showed a deficit of Eur 1 billion in April, compared to a Eur 0.1 billion surplus recorded a year ago, the National Bank of Belgium said on Thursday. Exports increased 17.7% year-on-year to Eur 17 billion in April, while imports grew 25.2% to Eur 18 billion. For the average three months ended in April, the volume of exports and imports rose by 12.2% and 12.6%, respectively compared to the same period of the previous year. The Belgian economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter. The gross domestic product increased 0.1% sequentially in the first quarter, slowing from 0.3% gain in the fourth quarter. However, the GDP increased for the third consecutive quarter. Annual inflation accelerated in June to reach the highest rate in eighteen months. The consumer price inflation quickened to 2.46% in June from 2.27% in May. Serbian President Boris Tadic and Belgian PM Yves Leterme met in Brussels on July 15 and confirmed their determination to strengthen economic cooperation. After the talks, Leterme stated: "We know that some significant economic files will be on the table in the next few hours or days, which may deepen Serbia's economic relations as well. I hope the negotiations on that will be successfully finished." Beta news agency learned from Belgian business circles that there is a practically closed deal between the Belgian company for mass distribution of food products and daily supplies, Delhaize, and Serbia's largest privately-held company Delta Holding. This implies that the powerful Belgian multinational company will be coming to the Serbian market, said the agency report. Tadic said that Serbia, like many European countries in the region, was affected by the financial crisis, which has caused an increase of unemployment, similarly to other countries, but he underlined that Serbia has established macroeconomic stability and that the country does not have a high public debt. Delhaize said it has received regulatory approval to take full control of local unit Alfa Beta Vassilopoulos, and will now move to take the unit private. The Belgian group said it will buy out the 9.13% stake it does not currently own, at E35.73 a share. It will then delist the company from the share market, effective 31 July. Traders set a final recovery value of 3% on the Belgium-based company Truvo's bonds in an auction to resolve credit- default swaps, according to administrators Markit Group Ltd. and Creditex Group Inc. Truvo USA LLC and four affiliates filed for bankruptcy on July 1 after Truvo Subsidiary, which publishes directories in Belgium, Ireland and Romania, didn't make payments on two senior note issues totaling $684 million. The settlement price was determined in a second round of bidding by 14 dealers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays Plc. It matched an initial value of 3% in the first round, according to Creditfixings.com, a website run by Creditex, a New York-based derivatives broker, and financial information provider Markit. THE NETHERLANDS In Amsterdam the AEX ended the session and the day Friday on 323.99, a drop of 1.75%. ArcelorMittal rose 0.9% to 23.215 Euros, the stock's first increase in three days, after the world's biggest steelmaker was raised to "hold" from "sell" at UniCredit SpA by equity analyst Christian Obst. Ballast Nedam surged 8% to 12.14 Euros, its biggest gain since May 2009, after the builder of AFC Ajax NV's soccer stadium reported an unexpected first-half profit. Beter Bed Holding rose 3.2% to 17.425 Euros. Europe's biggest mattress retailer raised its second- quarter forecast, expecting profit in that period to double to 1.6 million Euros ($2.1 million). Corio increased 0.7% to 41.71 Euros, paring two days of losses. The largest Dutch property company aims to more than double its German assets in the next five years after making its largest acquisition in the country in March, Chief Executive Officer Gerard Groener said. Gamma Holding rose 89 cents, or 4.8%, to 19.34 Euros, the highest price since October 2008. The world's second-biggest maker of conveyor belts is exploring the possible sale of Vlisco Group to strengthen its financial position. Netherlands retail sales dropped in May from the previous month, the Central Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. Retail sales value decreased 0.9% year-on-year in May, compared to a 0.1% rise in the previous month, which was revised from 0.2% fall reported initially. Turnover in food and beverage stores slipped 0.7% annually in May, in contrast to a 2% rise in the preceding month. At the same time, turnover in supermarkets increased 0.4%, but slower than 2.8% growth in the previous month. Sales for non-food stores slipped 3.5%, compared to a revised 3.4% fall in the previous month. For the January to May period, retail sales decreased 0.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. Sales in food and beverage stores grew 0.3% and non-food stores dipped 3.3%. Turnover in petrol stations climbed 5.7%. Meanwhile, retail sales volume dropped 2.1% on an annual basis in May, compared to a revised 1.5% fall in the previous month. For the first five months of the year, sales volume decreased 2.1% over a year ago. SWITZERLAND Swiss stocks tumbled for a second day as a slide in health-care shares overshadowed a gain in offshore drilling company Transocean Ltd. after BP Plc temporarily stopped its Gulf of Mexico oil leak. Roche Holding AG, the world's biggest maker of tumor drugs, fell 4.2%, the most in 15 months, after a US review said its top-seller Avastin didn't slow breast tumors in new studies as much as in earlier data used to win approval. Bank stocks retreated after Citigroup Inc. reported revenue that missed analysts' estimates and US consumer confidence slumped. Transocean jumped 2%. The benchmark Swiss Market Index fell 106.7, or 1.7%, to 6,184.37, down 0.4% this week. The SMI has retreated 11% from this year's high on April 15 amid speculation that Europe's debt crisis may derail the economic recovery and concern that Chinese authorities are cooling their nation's rate of growth. The broader Swiss Performance Index dropped 1.6% Friday. Roche sank 4.2% to 144.5 Swiss francs. Avastin paired with chemotherapy treatments didn't help patients survive longer than using the other drugs alone, according to a US Food and Drug Administration staff review released Friday. Outside advisers to the FDA will meet July 20 to evaluate Avastin and consider whether use in breast malignancies should be continued, expanded, or halted. Lonza Group AG, the largest maker of drug ingredients, retreated 3.1% to 71.25 francs, its first loss in four days. Transocean, the owner of the Deepwater Horizon offshore rig which sank in April, increased 2% to 55.8 francs, paring two days of declines. BP said after the close of European trading Thursday that oil has stopped flowing into the Gulf of Mexico for the first time in about three months. BP is evaluating data from a pressure test it began Thursday that will determine whether the Macondo well can remain sealed. Shares declined as Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. topped analyst estimates for per-share earnings while missing on sales. Stocks extended a drop after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of US consumer sentiment fell to 66.5 in July from 76 a month earlier, the lowest level in a year. UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, fell 2.2% to 15.04 francs, while Credit Suisse Group AG lost 2.7%, sliding to 43.03 francs, declining for a third day. An indicator of Swiss economic sentiment plunged sharply in July, suggesting analysts are less optimistic over the prospects for the economy. The Credit Suisse - ZEW economic sentiment indicator shed 15.3 points to stand at 2.2. Merely 17.8% of the analysts surveyed forecast further improvement in the economic climate in the next 6 months, compared to a 32.5% proportion in June. The percentage of analysts expecting a deterioration in the economic picture increased to 15.6% from 15%. Two-thirds of the experts participating in the survey expect no change in the economic climate in the next 6 months. Meanwhile, the ZEW - CS indicator measuring the current economic situation improved by 4.7 points from June to stand at 22.2. Swiss producer and import price index rose 0.9% year-on-year in June following 1.4% increase in May, data released by the Federal Statistical Office showed Tuesday. On a monthly basis, the producer and import price index fell for the first time in four months. The index dropped 0.4% following a 0.3% increase in May. The statistical agency attributed the monthly decline to lower prices for petroleum, petroleum products and metal products. Detailed data showed that the producer price index rose 0.3% annually following 0.6% increase in May. At the same time, import prices were up 2.3%, slightly slower than the 2.8% increase seen in the previous month. On a monthly basis, producer prices declined 0.4% and import prices by 0.5%. Underlining that price pressures are muted in the economy, data released earlier this month showed that the consumer price inflation slowed to 0.5% in June from 1.1% in May. The Swiss National Bank, the country's central bank, last month said that the risk of deflation has largely disappeared as a result of positive economic developments. The SNB, which aims to keep inflation below 2%, increased its inflation forecast for 2010 and 2011, while kept it unchanged for 2012. Assuming an unchanged three-month Libor of 0.25%, average inflation is expected to amount to 0.9% this year, 1% in 2011 and 2.2% in 2012. The central bank expects the economy to expand 2% this year. Gross domestic product rose 0.4% sequentially in the first quarter following 0.9% increase in the fourth quarter. AUSTRIA In Vienna, the ATX completed a hectic week at 2,325.99, down 1.93%. Alarm bells are ringing among political and business decision-makers as it emerges the Austrian economy suffered the biggest post-war year on year decline in 2009. Federal statistics agency Statistik Austria announced Friday (Fri) that the country's gross domestic product dropped by 3.9% from 2008 to 2009. The July 2010 ratings by the Institute for Higher Studies (IHS) and the Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) - Austria's top think tanks - mentioned a 3.5% slump. Statistik Austria stressed Friday its findings were based on updated and extended data. The agency pointed out that a minus of 3.9% was the most dramatic decline after the end of World War Two. Austria nevertheless fared better in the economic crisis than most of the European Union's (EU) 27 member nations as the EU's 2009 GDP shrunk by 3.1% on average. WIFO officials said recently the Austrian GDP failed to recover in the first quarter of this year as it dropped by 0.3% 2010 compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. The average GDP of the EU-27 meanwhile grew by 0.2% at the same time, they added. Economists point out soaring mineral oil prices would not only keep investments low but also lead to a decline in spending by Austrians. WIFO experts explained that they expected the Austrian economy to recover from the impact of the credit crunch. They however stressed that this process would occur slower than initially expected. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said recently it expected the Austrian economy to grow by 1.5% year on year in 2010. The Austrian trade industry - a key factor for the wellbeing of the country's economy - is showing signs of recovery as foreign trade businesses reported a 13.6% improvement in export rates last April compared to the same month in 2009. This improvement follows a 9.6% year on year plus in March 2010 Another crucial aspect is the state of Austria's tourism industry. Speaking about his expectations for this year, ÖVP Economy Minister Reinhold Mitterlehner said earlier this week he was convinced last year's overnight figures were in reach. The number of overnights by Austrians and tourists from abroad dropped by 1.9% to 124.3 million year on year in 2009. Analysts had however feared the global economic downturn would spark a more dramatic downturn. Austria's consumer price inflation increased in June from the previous month. The consumer price index, or CPI, rose 2% on an annual basis in June, faster than 1.9% in the previous month, a report by the Statistics Austria said on Wednesday. Food and non-alcoholic drinks grew 0.6% annually in June, while clothing prices increased 2.6%. Prices for housing,water, and energy rose 2.8% and health charges climbed 1.4%. Communication charges were up 1.4%. The CPI, excluding petroleum products, rose 1.4%. On a monthly basis, the CPI remained unchanged in June. At the same time, food and non-alcoholic drinks prices fell 0.1% and clothing prices slipped 1.8%. Restaurants and hotels prices grew 0.6%. Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, rose 1.8% on an annual basis in June, faster than 1.7% in the previous month. The HICP remained stable compared to the preceding month. Austria's trade deficit narrowed notably to Eur 255.5 million in April from Eur 731.6 million last year, the Statistics Austria said Friday. During the month, the value of exports increased 13.6% year-on-year to Eur 8.61 billion and imports value rose 6.6% to Eur 8.87 billion. Shipments to EU member states advanced 11.9%, while imports from these countries rose 12.9% annually. During the first four months of this year, trade deficit shrunk marginally to Eur 1.51 billion from Eur 1.81 billion in the same period last year. During the four-month period, exports were up 7.1% year-on-year and imports increased 5.8%. In the case of Austria's trade with the EU states, exports rose 7% between January to April, while imports rose 8%. The trade balance showed a deficit of Eur 1.73 billion. The Alpine nation's economy stagnated in the first quarter, compared to the 0.3% quarterly growth in the previous quarter, according to the Austrian Institute of Economic Research or WIFO. Meanwhile, last month, the International Monetary Fund has observed that Austria's deficit and debt levels are "not sustainable, though the country has more favorable debt and deficit levels than the Euro area average. The IMF expects Austria's fiscal deficit to be at 4.75% of GDP in 2010 and debt should be constrained to around 70%. SWEDEN Stockholm's OMX brought the week to a close at 1,034.69, a 1.97% decline on the day. Swedish compressor and machinery maker Atlas Copco bounded to record second-quarter margins and profit ahead of forecasts on the back of improved demand from miners and emerging economies. Atlas suffered like other industrial players during the global economic crisis and revenues slumped in 2009. But a strong recovery led on Friday to a record operating profit margin in the second quarter while pretax profit rose to 3.4 billion crowns ($466.1 million), compared with 2.5 billion in the previous quarter and an average forecast of 2.9 billion in a Reuters poll. The company's shares rose 3% initially, but later fell back to be down 0.83% by 1251 GMT. One analyst said Swedish industrial shares were broadly down, but had no immediate explanation for the turn in Atlas Copco. Another said there could be a shift of portfolios taking place due to the view that Swedish industrial shares had had a good recent run and that earnings growth had topped out. Shares in bearings maker SKF, which reported strong earnings on Thursday, also fell. But Atlas Copco was upbeat, posting record order intakes in Asia, including new records in China and India. Fiscal policy tightening in Eurozone is likely to hold back economic growth and inflation in Sweden in the long run, Riksbank said Thursday. According to minutes of the June 30 executive board meeting, when the central bank raised the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5%, policymakers assessed that the Swedish economy is developing strongly following the severe downturn. At the same time, economic growth abroad is expected to be lower, which means that the repo rate in the longer term will not need to be raised as much as was previously assumed. But, the repo rate now needs to be raised gradually towards more normal levels to attain the inflation target of 2% and to ensure stable growth in the real economy, minutes said. The bank's Deputy Governor Karolina Ekholm entered a reservation against the decision to raise the repo rate. She advocated a repo rate path with an unchanged repo rate of 0.25% until September, followed by successive increases in accordance with the profile presented in the monetary policy report. Another Deputy Governor Lars Svensson entered a reservation against the repo rate path and advocated a repo rate path with a repo rate of 0.25% through the fourth quarter of 2010, and thereafter a gradual return to the repo rate path of the main scenario. At the meeting, Swedish policymakers decided to restore the difference between the repo rate and the interest rates in the standing facilities to the level that prevailed prior to 22 April 2009. It means that the deposit rate will be the repo rate minus 0.75 of a percentage point, and the lending rate will be the repo rate plus 0.75 of a percentage point, the bank said. The central bank also decided to raise the lending rate to 1.25%, while the deposit rate is held unchanged at minus 0.25%. Swedish jobless rate increased in June from the previous month, a report by the Public Employment Service showed on Tuesday. The jobless rate rose to 4.8% in June from 4.5% in the previous month. The latest jobless rate came in line with economists' expectations. "Unemployment is still high, but in the first half of this year has been more work and more job vacancies notified to employment service since last year," Jan-Olof Dahlgren, chief of staff, the Employment Service said. " It is good that the employer hires new start jobs, which thus have the opportunity to enter the labour market." The number of registered unemployed persons amounted to 401,000 in June, representing 8.3% of the workforce. In May, the number of registered unemployed persons totaled 395,000. Persons registered as part-time unemployed decreased 3,000 from the previous year to 35,000. For the first half of the year, the number of vacancies totaled 297,000, which was 56,000 vacancies higher than a year ago. At the same time, there were 313,000 persons enrolled in the employment service. Sweden's Financial Supervisory Authority on Friday set out a general guideline for mortgages collateralised by homes. Accordingly, new loans should not exceed 85% of the home's market value, effective from October 1, 2010. FSA said the new rules are intended to increase consumer protection and suppress an unhealthy development on the credit market. Mortgages represent the largest portion of households' total indebtedness. This rule will also increase incentive for households to limit their debt and thereby create better protection for the future. The rules aim to counteract the use of higher loan-to-value ratios by banks and other credit institutions as a means of competition, FSA said. The rules will be applicable only to new loans or extensions to existing loans that use the home as collateral. FSA added that the rules will not have any considerable price effects on the housing market. DENMARK In Copenhagen, the OMX finished the week at 409.33, dropping 1.46% on Friday alone. Fitch Ratings on Monday affirmed Denmark's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings at 'AAA', respectively. The outlooks on the IDRs are stable. Fitch has simultaneously affirmed Denmark's country ceiling at 'AAA' and the short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'. The rating agency said Denmark's 'AAA' fundamentals remain solid, despite suffering a relatively severe recession. Fitch noted that the country's central bank's ability to successfully manage its peg to the Euro has boosted the credibility of Denmark's fixed exchange rate regime. Moreover, pressures on Denmark's banking system have also eased substantially since last year as government support measures helped to ensure the availability of liquidity. "Denmark has successfully weathered a number of major stress tests since the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008, including on its exchange rate - which has since seen pressure subside owing to successful management of the peg and renewed confidence in the Danish krone," said Maria Malas-Mroueh, Associate Director in Fitch's Sovereign team. "Further, its financial sector has benefited from the government's extensive support schemes while household's net financial wealth continues to be robust despite a significant deterioration of their asset positions." Fitch also pointed out the persistence of a number of risk factors in the Danish economy. They include the country's continued reliance on wholesale funding, and the large foreign currency liabilities of Danish banks. While the winding up and phasing out of the financial sector support measures is a main challenge for Denmark, Fitch expects banking sector stability to remain robust to the withdrawal of government guarantees later this year. The agency also recognizes that Denmark has the fiscal capacity to withstand financial sector pressures. Further, it said the budget consolidation required to achieve the government's targeted structural balance by 2015 is modest compared with peers. Denmark's deficit is expected to be 5.1% of GDP in 2010 versus a surplus of 3.4% of GDP in 2008. Danish producer prices increased in June, a report by the Statistics Denmark showed on Thursday. The producer price index rose 4.8% year-on-year in June. Meanwhile, the domestic produced goods prices increased 3.2% and imported goods prices grew 5.8%. On a monthly basis, the overall price index for domestic supply of goods rose 0.4% in June. At the same time, the domestic produced goods prices declined 1.2% and imported goods prices climbed 1.5%. Prices increased mostly on fish and fish products by 3.5% and machinery and tools,goods transport, by 1.7%. Meanwhile, industrial price index increased 3.6% on an annual basis in June and was down 1.4% compared to the preceding month. Danish consumer price inflation eased to a six-month low in June. Annual inflation was 1.7% in June, down from 2.2% in May. The economy expanded at a faster pace in the first quarter. The gross domestic product grew 0.5% sequentially in the first quarter, faster than a 0.2% growth in the previous quarter. Danish consumer price inflation eased to a six-month low in June, the Statistics Denmark said Monday. Inflation slowed for the second consecutive month. Annual inflation was 1.7% in June, down from 2.2% in May, largely driven by year-on-year decrease in clothing prices, the statistical office said. Meanwhile, the biggest increase in consumer prices was recorded by tobacco. Clothing and footwear index fell 1.8% year-on-year due to lower prices of both clothing and shoes. Prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose 5.1% on account of notably higher prices of tobacco. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages fell 1% annually, while housing prices rose 3.8%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2%. While prices of books, furniture and fruits contributed positively to the monthly index, prices of clothing and vegetables acted as a major drag. The harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, calculated according to the EU methodology, rose 1.7% year-on-year in June compared to 1.9% rise in the previous month. The index fell 0.1% monthly. Official data shows that the Danish economy expanded at an accelerated pace of 0.5% sequentially in the first quarter, compared to 0.2% growth in the previous quarter. FINLAND Helsinki's OMX headed into the weekend on 6,375.22, down 1.82%. Finland's current account deficit widened in April from May, data released by the Bank of Finland showed Thursday. The deficit ballooned to Eur 833 million from Eur 333 million April. That was led by a decrease in the goods trade surplus to Eur 389 million from Eur 477 million and an increase in income deficit to Eur 1.09 billion from Eur 680 million. Services surplus and transfers deficit were unchanged at Eur 39 million and Eur 168 million, respectively. The country's capital account surplus was stable at Eur12 million. The financial account deficit narrowed to Eur 2.4 billion from Eur 2.7 billion in April. There was a net inflow of Eur 0.2 billion in direct investment and Eur 0.7 billion in portfolio investment. Net outflow of Eur 3.6 billion was in other investment, such as loans, deposits and trade credits. Finland's retail sales increased for the fourth consecutive month in May both in terms of volume as well as value, official data revealed Wednesday. The volume of retail trade, excluding motor vehicle trade, grew 2.6% year-on-year in May, faster than the 1% increase in April, Statistics Finland said. At the same time, retail sales value rose 3.5% annually compared to 2.2% in the previous month. Total trade value increased 11% on an annual basis. Wholesale trade recorded an annual increase of 11.1% in May in terms of value, much faster than the 5.5% rise in April. Meanwhile, the value of motor vehicle sales climbed 32.8%, stronger than 19% growth in April. In terms of volume, wholesales trade grew 4.9% and motor vehicle sales were up 31.2%. During the January to May period, retail sales value rose 2.7% and the value of wholesale trade was up 5.5% compared to the same period last year. Motor vehicle sales rose 9.3% in terms of value, while total sales value increased 5.1% annually during the period. In the first quarter, retail sales increased 2.6% year-on-year and wholesale trade turnover was up 3.6%. Separately, the statistical agency reported that the total turnover in services industries increased 0.9% year-on-year during the February to April period. A year ago, the services turnover had declined 5.3%. Meanwhile, falling food prices and interest rates had a cooling impact on the headline inflation in Finland. The annual inflation rate eased to 0.9% in June from 1% in the preceding month. Nonetheless, jobless rate in Finland recorded a seasonal jump in May, when more students enter the labour market. The unemployment figures usually return to a lower level in June. Finnish jobless rate climbed to 10.5% in May from 9.3% in April. The Finnish economy contracted 0.4% sequentially in the first quarter, following a 0.2% decline in the fourth quarter. The economy contracted for a second straight quarter. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has cautioned that an aging population and recent loss of competitiveness due to international turbulence are posing big challenges to the country's growth prospects and fiscal sustainability. The lender projects 1.25% economic growth this year and around 2% in 2011. Building costs in Finland were 1.1% higher in June than in the same period a year ago, Statistics Finland said on Monday. labour costs in construction rose by 0.1% annually and prices of materials were up 2.7%. Other input costs were down 2.2%. By type of building, building costs increased 3.1% for agricultural production buildings, while those for blocks of flats were up 2%. Costs for building detached residential houses, office & commercial buildings, and industrial & warehouse buildings all increased. On a month-over-month basis, building costs rose by 0.3%. Prices of materials increased 0.6%. Fortum Oyj, the Nordic region's second-largest utility, said second-quarter profit fell 9% as its achieved electricity prices declined. Net income fell to 263 million Euros ($340 million), or 30 cents a share, from 289 million Euros, or 32 cents, a year earlier, Espoo, Finland-based Fortum said Friday in a statement. European utilities seek to safeguard profit from volatile power prices by selling electricity at tariffs they set a year or more in advance. Fortum and its competitors charged their customers prices that were determined in 2009, when they slumped as industrial energy consumers shuttered factories and couldn't use all the power and natural gas they had ordered. "There are areas where results could have been better," Chief Executive Officer Tapio Kuula said in the statement. "The first priority is to steadily improve our long-term performance." The company's stock fell 5.5% 18.05 Euros at the 6:30 p.m. close in Helsinki. That's the biggest one-day slide since March 26. Fortum said its power unit's achieved Nordic power price in the second-quarter was 44.8 Euros a megawatt-hour, down from 48 Euros a year earlier. The utility's profits were also hurt by a drop in nuclear and hydropower generation in the first half as well as higher costs for the company's nuclear operations, according to the statement. Nordic power demand should return to its 2008 level by 2012 to 2014 and electricity will continue to gain a higher share of total energy consumption, Fortum said. The power unit's sales fell to 597 million Euros from 608 million Euros a year earlier. Fortum also generates and sells electricity in Russia. NORWAY In Oslo the OBX closed out the trading session at 317.21; not suffering as heavily as other European markets, but still down 0.70% in the process. Norwegian import prices, excluding ships and oil platforms, rose 2.5% sequentially in the second quarter, marking the first increase since the end of 2008, data released by Statistics Norway showed Thursday. But, on an annual basis, import prices were down 0.7%. Import prices of food, beverages and tobacco declined 3.3% year-on-year and those of crude materials, except fuels climbed 25.3%. Import prices of fuels surged 20.9% and those of manufactured goods except food, beverages and tobacco declined 4.6%. On the other hand, export prices increased 3.8% over the first quarter, taking the annual rise to 9.7%. Export prices of food, beverages and tobacco were up 5.5%, crude materials except fuels increased 10.7%, fuel by 14.2% and manufactured goods except food, beverages and tobacco by 0.1%. The statistical agency also said the volume of imports increased 10.1% year-on-year in the second quarter and that of exports was up 2.8%. Norway's trade surplus widened in the January to June period, a report by the Statistics Norway showed on Thursday. The trade surplus totaled NOK 173.7 billion in the January to June period, up NOK 8.1 billion from the the same period of the previous year. The trade balance increased by 5% from the previous year. The growth was mainly due to a rise in crude oil exports, but the mainland exports also contributed to the increase, the statistical office said. Exports amounted to NOK 390.5 billion in the first half of the year, while imports totaled NOK 216.7 billion. The export value of crude oil totaled NOK 140.3 billion, up from NOK 108.1 billion last year. This was mainly due to higher crude oil prices compared to the preceding year. At the same time, natural gas exports came to NOK 84.3 billion, a decrease of NOK 31.2 billion from the previous year. Imports of goods, excluding ships and oil platforms, amounted to NOK 216.7 billion in the first half of the year, up from NOK 208.5 billion a year ago. Imports of manufactured goods increased 2% to NOK 33.4 billion, while imports of chemicals and related products as well as food and live animals also increased during the period. In June, the trade balance showed a surplus of NOK 25.4 billion, up from NOK 21.41 billion a year ago. Exports increased 16.8% on an annual basis to NOK 67.23 billion, while imports climbed 15.6% to NOK 41.78 billion. Norway's wholesale prices rose 1.7% sequentially in the second quarter, Statistics Norway reported Monday. Wholesale price inflation rose from 1.5% in the first quarter. On a yearly basis, wholesale prices were up 4.6% in the second quarter. Within the wholesale trade, prices of food, beverages and tobacco climbed 2.6% sequentially and that of household goods remained flat. While, prices of textiles dipped 0.1%, wholesale of clothing and footwear gained 0.1%. Wholesale of electrical household appliances and radio and television goods declined 0.8% and that of machinery, equipment and supplies slipped 0.2%. The increase in wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels and related products prices was 4.3%. Data released on July 7 showed that Norwegian consumer price inflation eased for the third straight month in June amid a decline in the prices of food and clothing. Inflation slowed to 1.9% year-on-year in June from 2.5% in May. SPAIN The IBEX in Madrid ended the session and the week at 9,991.70, a dip of 1.66%. A leading indicator of the Spanish economy was unchanged in May, suggesting growth is likely to be subdued going forward. The Conference Board leading economic index for Spain was unchanged at 109.0 in May after increasing in April. Positive contributions to the indicator from job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production were balanced by a negative contribution from the Spanish equity price index. Meanwhile, the coincident index, which is a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1% in May from April. Positive contributions came from final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports. The retail sales survey and employment remained unchanged in May. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said on Wednesday that the domestic economy is expected to have grown in the second quarter after emerging from the recession in the first quarter. However, Zapatero said recent budget reduction measures is likely to weigh on growth in the latter half of the year. Spain's socialist government is trying to reduce its huge budget deficit, which is the third biggest in Eurozone. The Spanish economy expanded 0.1% sequentially in the first quarter, growing for the first time since early 2008. However, the country's government foresee 0.3% contraction this year before expanding 1.3% next year. The Spanish statistical office is due to release second quarter GDP figures on August 13. Speaking at Spain's annual State of the Nation parliamentary debate, Zapatero said his government will go ahead with the tough austerity measures and labour reform policies. The government wants to raise the retirement age to 67 from 65. It also plans to increase the number of years of contribution that are used to calculate pensions. In May, Spain's parliament approved a Eur 15 billion austerity plan aimed at reducing its large fiscal deficit and to calm worries that the country could follow Greece into a debt crisis. The tough cost cutting measures are expected to save the Spanish government Eur 15 billion in 2010 and 2011. The austerity measures are also expected to reduce Spain's deficit from its current level of more than 11% of GDP to 6% of GDP by 2011 and to 3% by 2013. The plan calls for slashing salaries of cabinet ministers and other senior officials by 15%, and includes an average five-percent pay cut for public sector workers from June, and a pay freeze from 2011. Home sales in Spain increased 11.9% year-on-year to 37,787 in May, the National Statistics Institute said Monday. On a monthly basis, there was an increase of 10.1%. The statistical agency said 89.6% of transfers of dwellings were free housing and 10.4% were protected housing. It said 49.5% of the dwellings transferred by merchanting in May were used, and 50.5% were new. The number of transactions on new dwellings increased 8.8%, while that of used dwellings increased 15.3%, as compared with May 2009. Total number of property transfers in May was 161,500, an increase of 6.1% over the previous year and 7.9% more than the figure recorded in April. Donation of property was up 3.3% year-on-year to 5,822. Inherited property sales increased 15.2% over the previous year to 31,753. The total number of property transfers per 100,000 inhabitants was highest in the Autonomous Communities of Castilla y León and Castilla-La Mancha, with 741 and 704, respectively. In the first quarter, Spanish house prices declined 2.9% compared with the same period a year ago. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, house prices were down 1.2%. PORTUGAL The PSI Generali in Lisbon finished the Friday trading session at 2,554.06, down 1.57%. Moody's Investors Service downgraded Portugal's government bond ratings on Tuesday saying that the government's financial strength will weaken over the medium term and the economy's growth prospects are likely to remain weak. However, the outlook on the rating is stable, with the upside and downside risks evenly balanced. Concluding its review for possible downgrade, the rating agency lowered the rating to A1 from Aa2. Moody's last rating action on Portugal was on May 5, when the agency placed the country's Aa2 government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade, while the Prime-1 short-term rating was affirmed. Prior to that, Moody's has changed the outlook on the government's Aa2 ratings to negative from stable on October 29, 2009. The two-notch downgrade reflects the rating agency's conclusions that the Portuguese government's financial strength will continue to weaken over the medium term, as evidenced by the ongoing deterioration in the country's debt metrics, such as debt to GDP and debt to revenues. Moreover, the economy's growth prospects are likely to remain relatively weak unless recent structural reforms bear fruit over the medium to longer term. In April 2010, Standard & Poor's lowered its long-term local and foreign currency sovereign issuer credit ratings on Portugal to A- from A+, while it cut the local and foreign currency short-term ratings to A-2 from A-1. The rating agency also said that the outlook is negative. That was followed by a downgrade by Fitch in March to 'AA-' from 'AA'. Portugal's budget deficit ballooned to 9.3% of GDP in 2009 from 2.8% in 2008, with debt rising to 76.3% of GDP from 66.3%. The EU rules allow a budget deficit below 3%. To reduce the budget deficit, the Portuguese government announced additional fiscal measures in May, which included increases in taxes and spending cuts. On July 2, Portugal's Finance Ministry said it aims to lower the government's budget deficit quicker than initially estimated. Setting new targets, the ministry said it wants to reduce the deficit to 7.3% of GDP this year. It had previously planned to lower the shortfall to 8.3% from 2009's 9.3%. In 2011, the government wants to lower the deficit to 4.6% of GDP, faster than the initially projected reduction to 6.6% of GDP. "This means that the 3% target will be reached a year before than initially forecast," the ministry said in a statement. However, Moody's expects the government's debt metrics to continue to deteriorate for at least another two to three years, with the debt-to-GDP and debt-to-revenues ratios eventually approaching 90% and 210%, respectively, before stabilizing once the budget has moved back into a primary surplus position. It also remains concerned about the economy's medium-term growth potential. The country is seeking to cut its budget deficit to 2.8% of gross domestic product by 2013. The Portuguese government headed by Prime Minister Jose Socrates had announced that the income tax rate will be raised to 45% for those earning over Eur 150,000 per year. The government also plans to cut military investments by 40% during the period, and postpone plans to build high-speed train links that would connect Lisbon and Porto to Spain. Anthony Thomas, vice president - senior analyst in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, said it is not yet clear whether the reforms will boost growth sufficiently to allow the deterioration in the country's debt metrics to eventually reverse, especially as the labour market reforms are relatively recent. This would imply that Portugal's government would remain relatively highly indebted for the foreseeable future. The economy expanded 1.1% sequentially in the first quarter following a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2009. The European Commission foresee 0.5% growth this year before accelerating to 0.7% in 2011. In its spring forecast released in May, the Commission projected Portugal's budget deficit to narrow to 8.5% of GDP this year from 9.3% of GDP in 2009. Thereafter, it would further narrow to 7.9% of GDP in 2011. Separately, Moody's has also affirmed Portugal's short-term issuer rating of Prime-1 with a stable outlook. Portugal falls under the Eurozone's Aaa regional ceilings for bonds and bank deposits, which were unaffected by the Portuguese government's downgrade. The Bank of Portugal on Tuesday slashed its growth outlook for next year, as a sharp slowdown in the second half of 2010 is expected to deepen in 2011. In its Summer Economic Bulletin, the central bank cut its forecast for 2011 gross domestic product growth to 0.2% from the 0.8% growth projected in March. Nonetheless, the forecast growth rate for 2010 was raised to 0.9% from 0.4%. In 2009, the economy contracted by 2.7%. The bank also pointed to the risks of a further downturn stemming from the possible depreciation of the Euro and additional consolidation measures in Portugal's trade partners. Additionally, the bank cautioned that a decreases in domestic demand as well as in private investment will dampen growth in 2011. Domestic demand may decline 1.1% next year after remaining flat this year, the bank said. The slowdown in domestic demand may be driven by the government's fiscal consolidation measures, tight credit conditions, low household disposable income, and a weak labour market. The Bank of Portugal also said that the deficit is expected to be 4.3% of GDP in 2010 and may accelerate to 5% of GDP in 2011. This development is still conditioned by the assumed increase in interest rates in the forecast period, the bank said. Meanwhile, the bank maintained its forecast for export growth in 2011 at 3.7% while upwardly revising the forecast import growth rate to 1.7% from 1.4%. ITALY The Mibtel closed down 1.56% at 20,161.02, a large decline for the final trading day of the week. Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi said on Thursday that stress tests will show Italian banks have sufficient capital to face further financial shocks. "I'm confident that tests will show that the capital resources of the Italian banks are appropriate," Draghi, who is also a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, said in a speech at the Italian Banking Association's annual meeting in Rome. He added that the tests will examine banks' ability to function in a condition, where economic growth rate is three percentage points below the European Commission forecast for 2010-11. A total of 91 banks across Europe are being tested to assess whether they will be able to withstand future shocks in the financial sector. The results are due to be published on July 23. Draghi stated that the quality of Italian banks' capital is higher compared to banks of other nations. The policymaker also urged banks to increase lending to businesses to boost economic activity. Italy's consumer price index, or CPI, including tobacco rose 1.3% in June from the previous year, a final report from the statistical office Istat showed on Wednesday. In May, inflation was 1.4%. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices grew 2.2% annually in June, while clothing and footwear prices rose 1%. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel prices increased 0.8%. Transport charges climbed 3.7%. On the other hand, food and non-alcoholic beverages fell 0.3%, while communications charges slipped 1%. On a monthly basis, the CPI remained unchanged in June, after rising 0.1% in May. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose 0.1% and clothing and footwear prices also grew 0.1%. Transport charges fell 0.3%. Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, was up 1.5% year-on-year in June, slowing from 1.6% in May. Month-on-month, the HICP rose 0.1%. Thus, all latest figures matched a preliminary estimate released on June 30. GREECE Athen's Athex Composite closed the day and the week Friday on 1,612.87, a gain of 0.26%. Piraeus Bank, the fourth-largest Greek lender, on Thursday made an unsolicited cash bid of €701m ($903m) for the state's stakes in two loss-making domestic banks. The move could trigger consolidation of the country's troubled bank sector, which has lost access to funding from interbank markets over fears of a Greek sovereign default, according to analysts. Analysts said the deal would create Greece's biggest domestic banking group with assets of more than €105bn. Piraeus offered to acquire 33.04% of Hellenic PostBank for €329m - a 30% premium to Wednesday's closing share price. It would also pay €372m for 77.3% of Agricultural Bank of Greece, equivalent to the group's net asset value. "Given improvements in Greece's fiscal situation in the first six months, it's the right time to launch a specific initiative," said Michalis Sallas, Piraeus chairman. Greece was praised this week for outperforming a first-half budget deficit target set under terms of a €110bn bail-out by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The government said it would consider Piraeus's offer. It was not immediately clear whether the finance ministry would call for counter bids from other domestic or foreign groups. A Piraeus official said the bank had held discussions with the finance ministry before Mr Sallas announced the bid, although Greece does not currently have a formal bank privatisation programme. As the smallest of Greece's "big four" lenders, Piraeus has struggled recently to fund itself through deposits and the European Central Bank. "Access to Hellenic's large and stable deposit base of close to €9bn would immediately solve Piraeus's funding problem," said an Athens-based analyst. Piraeus made its offer the day after George Papaconstantinou, the finance minister, urged Greek banks to consolidate in order to weather the country's debt crisis. "Banks urgently need to make strategic moves," said Mr Papaconstantinou on Wednesday night, as the parliament voted to set up a €10bn bank stabilisation fund backed by the IMF. The stabilisation fund would provide capital injections for Greek banks that fail - or come close to failing - rigorous stress tests being carried out by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Greece. Greek banks face a 23% "haircut" on their trading portfolios of government bonds. Non-performing loans in the sector are projected by analysts to exceed 10% this year. Piraeus, Hellenic and ABG all reported first-quarter losses, reflecting sharply higher provisioning and sluggish credit expansion as Greece slips deeper into recession. Piraeus would finance the proposed acquisition out of its own funds - including liquidity and capital provided under the government's 2008 rescue package. Mr Sallas said the merged entity would have a loan-to-deposit ratio of 98%. Its tier one capital ratio would be 9%. The banks' share prices jumped after the Athens stock exchange lifted a brief suspension of trading. Greek jobless rate dropped in March from the preceding month. The jobless rate was 11.6% in March, down from 12.1% in the previous month, the statistical office said on Thursday. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 9.2%. The number of unemployed totaled 578,723 in March, larger than 457,024 persons in the previous year. At the same time, the number of employed decreased to 4.42 million from 4.49 million a year ago. Greek consumer price inflation eased in June. The consumer price index rose 5.2% annually in June, slower than a 5.4% growth in the previous month. Inflation rate eased for the first time since May 2009. The economy contracted at a faster pace in the first quarter. The gross domestic product dropped 1% sequentially in the first quarter, faster than the 0.8% decline in the previous quarter. The GDP decreased for the sixth consecutive quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008. Greece's import price inflation in May slowed for the first time in eight months, data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority showed Monday. The import price index grew 7.8% year-on-year compared to April's 10.1% rise. Import prices have been rising since October last year, ending declines, which started in November 2008. The statistical agency said the annual rise in the import price index reflects 1.3% increase in the import price index of the Eurozone market and 14.7% rise in non-Eurozone market. By industrial groups, import prices of intermediate goods climbed 2.9% annually and that of capital goods dropped 0.1%. Import prices of durable consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods moved up by 0.7% each. Energy prices surged 32.7%. On a monthly basis, import prices fell 0.5% in May, the first decline in five months. It followed a 1.5% increase in April. The decline was caused by a 2.2% drop in import prices of energy. Import prices of intermediate goods rose 0.1%, durable consumer goods prices went up by 0.2% and non-durable consumer goods prices by 0.1%. Capital goods prices were flat. |
| The UK Market
Did it follow the Global trend ..... | UK stocks fell, reversing an earlier rally on the benchmark FTSE 100 Index, after Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. reported lower-than-estimated sales and a report showed US consumer confidence deteriorated. Barclays Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc slid more than 2%, as banks led declines in the FTSE 100. BP Plc climbed 1.3% after Britain's second-biggest oil company temporarily stopped its Gulf of Mexico oil leak. The FTSE 100 declined 52.44, or 1%, to 5,158.85, paring this week's gain to 0.5%. The gauge has slumped 11% from this year's high on April 15 amid concern that economic growth will be curbed by austerity measures from European governments cutting their budget deficits and as data on the US and Chinese economies disappointed investors. Barclays, the UK's third-biggest bank, declined 5.2% to 284.65 pence. HSBC, the largest bank in Europe, dropped 2.5% to 621.6 pence. BlueBay Asset Management Plc, the London-based manager of fixed-income funds, fell 1.2% to 291.6 pence after saying assets under management slid in the fiscal fourth quarter on foreign-exchange losses. BP climbed 1.3% to 407.15 pence. The company said it is "encouraged" after a pressure test that halted the flow from its Gulf of Mexico well indicated no sign of an oil leak after the first 17 hours. Separately, BP may reach an agreement as soon as next week to sell assets to Apache Corp. for $10 billion to $11 billion, including half its stake in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay field, according to two people familiar with the matter. Burberry Group Plc climbed 1.1% to 799.5 pence as the UK's biggest luxury retailer said it has entered an agreement to acquire the stores and related assets in China currently operated by its long-standing franchisees. Spectris Plc jumped 6.7% to 891.5 pence, the most since August 2009, after saying it expects full-year profit to exceed its forecasts. The UK's largest maker of production- testing gear also said it sees "signs of recovery" in most regions and markets. |
| Asia Pacific Regional Markets
Did they set the tone or follow the lead ..... | JAPAN Tokyo stocks tumbled Friday to their lowest levels in over a month as the Yen hit a two-week high against the Dollar on fears over worsening US economic growth prospects, prompting investors to unload heavily weighted exporters like Kyocera and Sony before the upcoming three-day weekend. Analysts say that although Japanese companies are expected to release positive first-quarter earnings later this month, investor sentiment has already been dented by a slew of US economic data that has been mostly less than encouraging. Overnight data on manufacturing activity in the New York and Philadelphia regions were merely the latest such reports to disappoint. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 277.17 points, or 2.9%, to 9408.36, its worst point and percentage losses since June 7. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues also fell 16.02 points, or 1.9%, to 840.58, with 31 of 33 subindexes ending in negative territory. Trading volume continued to look light considering the degree of price declines, however, totaling only about 1.73 billion shares on the TSE 1st section. For the week, the Nikkei dropped 1.8%, but is up 0.3% for the month thus far. Year-to-date, however, the index is off almost 11%. Market analysts said that the Nikkei may trade between 9300 and 9800 next week, reflecting possibly more volatility ahead. Exporters dropped sharply as a group, as the Dollar fell further, bottoming at Y86.97, largely on increased pessimism over the US economy's recovery outlook. Kyocera fell 4.8% to Y7,330, Sony dropped 5.0% to Y2,404 and Yamaha Motor shed 4.9% to Y1,090. Retail investors were seen keen to dump Yamaha, primarily on concerns over upcoming earnings, according to traders. Shinsei Bank fell 4.6% to Y62 after hitting a new year-to-date intraday low of Y59 amid ongoing worries about its low capital buffer. Market observers also noted concerns ahead of its end-July deadline to submit a business improvement plan to the Financial Services Agency. Meanwhile, Mitsui & Co. outperformed the market, rising 0.4% to Y1,135 after BP said that the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill had been stopped. September Nikkei 225 futures closed down 270 points, or 2.8%, at 9400 on the Osaka Securities Exchange. SOUTH KOREA South Korea's Won fell this week on speculation economic slowdowns in the US and China will hurt exports and curb demand for emerging-market assets. The Kospi share index fell for a second day after US reports showed manufacturing contracted in June by the most in a year and wholesale prices declined more than anticipated. China, the biggest buyer of Korean exports, Thursday reported economic growth moderated to 10.3% in the second quarter from 11.9% in the previous three months. Foreign investors were buyers of 305.9 billion Won worth of shares and retail investors picked up a net 59.1 billion Won worth. Decliners outnumbered advancers 493 to 293 and 83 issues ended flat. Trading volume was 370.4 million shares worth 5.9 trillion Won, compared with 384.2 million shares worth 5.3 trillion Won. The KOSPI 200 Sept futures index ended down 2.60 points at 227.05, and the KOSPI 200 spot index fell 2.05 points to 226.34. The junior Kosdaq market ended 0.57% lower at 498.88. South Korea's Honam Petrochemical Corp said Friday it would buy a Malaysian chemicals firm for 1.2 billion Dollars, in what it billed as Korea's biggest foreign acquisition this year. Honam said it had agreed to buy a 72.3% stake in Titan Chemicals and would make an unconditional offer to remaining shareholders. It said Titan's executive chairman James Chao had agreed to sell his 37.3% stake and Malaysia's state fund manager Permodalan Nasional would sell its 35.03% share. The Won declined 0.6% this week to 1,203.39 against the Dollar in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency, which Friday slipped 0.1%, is Asia's worst performer this year, having fallen 3.3%. Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong Soo said on July 13 that some Asian countries face difficulties due to their dependence on external trade, which usually brings about volatility in capital markets. Exports are equivalent to more than half the nation's gross domestic product. South Korea's government bonds advanced this week. The yield on the 3.75% note due June 2013 fell two basis points to 3.92%. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. HONG KONG Hong Kong stocks closed virtually unchanged in narrow trade on Friday, with the debut trading of Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) helping boost overall turnover by 10%. The benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 5.46 points, or 0.03%, to close at 20,250.16, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of so-called H shares of Chinese companies fell 0.07% to close at 11,419.62. The total turnover increased to 61.3 billion HK Dollars from 56 billion HK Dollars on Thursday. For heavyweights, banking giant HSBC increased one% to 75.65 HK Dollars, leading telecom service provider China Mobile retreating 1.15% to 77.05 HK Dollars. Wireless carrier China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. declined 0.6% to 10.02 HK Dollars. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China fell 0.87% to 5.69 HK Dollars. China Construction Bank Corp. lost 0.63% to 6. 32 HK Dollars. Bank of China Ltd. moved up 1.73% to 4.11 HK Dollars. Henderson Land Development Co., the Hong Kong builder controlled by billionaire Lee Shau-kee, declined 1.29% to 46.1 HK Dollars since the police is still on investigation into collapsed apartment sales at a luxury residential project. ABC, the last of China's largest four banks to go public in Hong Kong, started trading on Friday at the price of 3.25 HK Dollars per share, closing at 3.27 HK Dollars, or 2.19% higher than its offering price. CHINA Most China stocks rose, led by consumer-related companies, as investors sought resilient earnings prospects after economic growth slowed. Wuliangye Yibin Co. and Bright Dairy & Food Co. gained more than 3% among food and beverage companies. Zijin Mining Group Co. dropped 5.4% after it said three managers were detained by the police following an acid spill. Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. lost 0.4% in Shanghai as it debuted in Hong Kong. About two stocks rose for each that declined on the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which lost 0.03 point to 2,424.27 at the close, paring an earlier 1.5% loss. The measure, which slumped the most in two weeks Thursday after economic growth trailed estimates, is down 1.9% this week. The CSI 300 Index gained 0.3% to 2,616.13. The Shanghai index has declined 26% this year, the worst performance among benchmark Asian gauges, on concern measures by the government to control real-estate speculation and rising consumer prices will slow the world's third-largest economy. Stocks on the gauge trade at 18 times reported earnings, compared with last year's high of 35 times. Wuliangye Yibin, a liquor maker, advanced 3.2% to 25.80 RMB. Bright Dairy, a milk producer, added 3.5% to 7.48 RMB. Kweichow Moutai Co. advanced 1.5% to 133.81 RMB. Metro Land Corp. jumped 7.1% to 6.46 RMB after the department-store operator said first-half profit probably rose at least sixfold to as much as 125 million RMB ($18 million). Zijin dropped 5.4% to 5.22 RMB. The police took away the plant's manager, deputy manager and the head of environment, company secretary Zheng Yuqiang said by phone Friday. The Fujian-based company is cooperating with the investigation, he said. Agricultural Bank fell 0.4% to 2.69 RMB. Its stock rose 2.5% in Hong Kong. Sichuan Western Resources Holding Co., a copper producer, surged 7.2% to 23.19 RMB, the most since May 27, after authorities approved its application to purchase mining rights in China's Jiangxi province. TAIWAN Taiwan share prices closed down 0.51% Friday, largely in response to losses posted by other regional markets amid concerns over the pace of global economic recovery, dealers said. The weighted index fell 39.95 points to 7,664.57 after moving between 7,660.76 and 7,719.05 on turnover of NT$120.84 billion (US$3.76 billion). The market opened up 0.12%, but the momentum diminished immediately after investors witnessed other regional markets suffering selling pressure on renewed worries over the world's economy, dealers said. Select large high-tech stocks continued to take a beating as the market feared global consumption would be affected, while the financial sector extended its gains from the previous The machinery and electronics sector suffered the heaviest losses, dropping 1.0%. The textile and the paper and pulp sectors closed down 0.7% each, while the foodstuff sector fell 0.5%. The cement sector lost 0.3% and the plastics and chemical sector dropped 0.1%. The financial and construction sectors, however, both rose 1.1%. A total of 2,165 stocks closed up and 1,144 down, with 239 remaining unchanged. The local bourse fell below 7,700 points again at the end of the session. Flat panel firms have been targeted by profit-taking as investors were worried that rising inventories will impact demand and affect prices, dealers said. Chimei Innolux fell 2.45% to NT$34.55, and rival AU Optronics lost 1.64% to NT$29.95. Resilient financial stocks prevented the broader market from falling further as foreign institutional investors kept buying into the sector amid optimism toward its earnings outlook, dealers said. Taiwan Business Bank rose 5.32 THE PHILIPPINES Local stocks drifted lower for the second straight session on Friday as investors scrambled to lock in gains from the strong run-up early in the week. The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index shed 24.95 points or 0.72% to close at 3,442.68. Although gains were pared down in the last two days, the index was still up by 1.4% for the week due to the rally in the first few days. The index was weighed down most by the holding firms, property and mining/oil counters which were all down by over 1%. Value turnover was average at P3.1 billion. There were 38 advancers, which were overwhelmed by 70 decliners while 54 stocks were unchanged. Investors sold down shares of Ayala Land Inc., Aboitiz Power Corp., Energy Development Corp., Manila Water Co., Megaworld Corp., Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., SM Prime Holdings Inc., First Gen Corp., DMCI Holdings Inc. and First Philippine Holdings Corp.
Among the few that bucked the downtrend were Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc., Philippine National Bank and Globe Telecom. On the other hand, shares of Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., Universal Robina Corp. and Digital Telecommunications Philippines Inc. were unchanged. There was little incentive from the overseas markets as trading in Wall Street was likewise sluggish overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was down by 7.41 points or 0.07% to 10,359.31. SINGAPORE Singapore's Straits Times Index closed up 0.48%, or 14.17 points, at 2,957.72. DBS Group gained 18 cents to 14.80, while Singapore Airlines fell two cents to 15.02. In Singapore, property shares were mixed, with CapitaLand up 0.3%, City Development up 2.7% but Keppel Land falling 1.1%. Broker DMG & Partners has downgraded Singapore's property sector to "neutral" due to slowing sales, massive supply and deteriorating affordability. Retail sales in Singapore continued to decline in May, albeit at a slower rate, mainly due to poor motor vehicle sales, official data showed Thursday. Sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.9% month-on-month in May, slower than the 2% drop recorded in April, the Singapore Department of Statistics said. Excluding motor vehicle trade, retail sales slipped just 0.1%. Sales of motor vehicles declined 8% in May. The decline was, however, much slower than the 15.7% drop in the previous month. Sales of food and beverages declined 1.3% month-on-month after growing 3.4% in April. Retail trade at departmental stores was down 0.9%, while sales in super markets grew 1% during May. On an annual basis, retail sales declined more-than-expected due to a sharp reduction in motor sales. Sales declined 3.4% year-on-year, steeper than the 2.3% drop in April. Economists had forecast a 2.4% fall. Motor vehicle sales dipped 36.9%, faster than the 30.9% fall in the previous month. Eliminating the impact of the year-on-year slump in motor trade, sales recorded an increase of 7.8%. Year-on-year, sales at the department stores increased 7.5% annually and at supermarkets, sales grew 1.1%. Trade in food and beverages rose 3.3% after a moderate slump in the previous month. MALAYSIA Share prices on Bursa Malaysia closed broadly higher on mild bargain hunting activities as investors lauded the government's subsidy rationalisation programme, dealers said. At the end of the afternoon session, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) finished 2.57 points or 0.193% higher at 1,336.65. The key index, which opened 0.22 of a point lower at 1,333.86, recorded an intra-day high of 1,336.65 points and an intra-day low of 1,332.68 points. On Thursday, the government announced the reduction of subsidies for petrol, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and sugar as a first step towards the gradual subsidy rationalisation programme effective Friday. At close, the Industrial Index shed 4.45 points to 2,655.03, the Plantation Index slipped 9.88 points to 6,289.5 but the Finance Index surged 51.931 points to 12,100.61. The FBM Emas Index improved 29.02 points to 9,048.43, the FBM70 Index increased 23.71 points to 9,085.5 but the FBM Ace Index eased 1.71 points to 3,764.61. Gainers led losers 476 to 206 while 263 counters were unchanged, 423 untraded and 28 others were suspended. Total volume improved to 793.61 million shares, worth RM1.196 billion, from Thursday's 619.65 million shares valued at RM1.128 billion. Top gainers, Cycle & Carriage Bintang surged 61 sen to RM7.10, Scomi Engineering added 36 sen to RM1.51 and Bina Puri Holdings was 31 sen higher at RM1.42. Active stocks, Time Engineering added 4.5 sen to 45.5 sen, Time Dotcom rose 2.5 sen to 54.5 sen and Scomi Group added two sen to 41 sen. Finance-related stocks, CIMB Group and RHB Capital, each closed five sen higher at RM7.12 and RM6.15, respectively, while Public Bank gained 10 sen to RM12.10. Of heavyweights, Maybank, Maxis and Tenaga each added one sen to RM7.70, RM5.31 and RM8.61, respectively, while Sime Darby eased three sen to RM7.81. Main-market debutant, Capitamalls Malaysia Trust closed two sen lower at 98 sen over its institutional offer price of RM1 per unit. Some 11.987 million shares were traded. Volume on the Main Market surged to 702.001 million shares, worth RM1.177 billion, compared with 576.92 million shares, worth RM1.121 billion, registered Thursday. Turnover on the Ace Market increased to 30.809 million shares, valued at RM4.143 million, versus Thursday's 20.992 million units worth RM2.764 million. Warrants jumped to 54.518 million shares, valued at RM10.01 million, compared with 19.406 million shares, worth RM2.481 million, recorded on Thursday. Consumer products accounted for 54.761 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 150.425 million, construction 52.487 million, trade and services 238.968 million, technology 26.52 million, infrastructure 39.658 million, finance 37.977 million, hotels 995,600, properties 63.654 million, plantations 17.989 million, mining 2,000, REITs 18.512 million and closed/fund 53,300. INDONESIA Indonesia's benchmark index hit an intra-day peak of 2,987.04, close to the record of 2,996.41 set on May 4, 2010. Among losers in Jakarta, where the index trades at a 12-month forward price to earnings ratio of 13.8, the highest in Southeast Asia, coal miner Bumi Resources fell 3.7% and Adaro Energy dropped 1.2%. PT Bank Tabungan Negara dropped 1.1% to 1,800 rupiah. The company expects net income to rise to 746 billion rupiah ($82 million) this year from 490.7 billion rupiah in 2009 on higher lending, citing the state-owned lender's President Director Iqbal Latanro. This would mean the second-half net is 355.4 billion rupiah, lower than first-half net income's 390.6 billion rupiah. PT Indofood Sukses Makmur advanced 0.6% to 4,350 rupiah. PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur appointed Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, PT Kim Eng Securities and PT Mandiri Sekuritas to help arrange the company's initial public offering, citing Christian P. Somali, a spokesman at parent PT Indofood Sukses Makmur. Government bonds and stocks are leading gains among the region's 10 largest emerging-market economies this year after overseas investors boosted their holdings of the debt by more than 50% and pumped some $1.1 billion into local equities. The benchmark interest rate of 6.5% compares with a maximum 1% in the US, Europe and Japan and Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo predicts gross domestic product will increase 5.9% this year. The Rupiah traded at 9,048 per Dollar as of 10:17 a.m., little changed from 9,038 Thursday and 9,043 at the end of last week. It has gained 3.8% this year, a performance second only to Malaysia's Ringgit among Asian currencies, and touched 8,998 on June 21, the strongest level since April. THAILAND Bucking the Regional trend, the Bangkok bourse inched up 0.2% on late buying. In Bangkok, Thai analysts raised their end-2010 target for Thai stocks to 849 as growth in the domestic and global economy plus the government's stimulus spending should bolster earnings. The Thai stock exchange's president, Charamporn Jotikasthira, said a market roadshow in London this week got positive feedback from investors. "The feedback was favourable, although there were still concerns about domestic political factors and problems at Map Ta Phut," he said, referring to the suspension of projects at the eastern industrial estate because of environmental concerns. Thai stocks are the second-cheapest in the region by valuation after Vietnam. Bangkok trades at a 12-month forward price to earnings ratio of 10.8, after Vietnam's 10.7, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine. Gainers in Bangkok included Siam Commercial Bank, which rose 0.6% ahead of quarterly results next week, and condominium developer LPN, which jumped 6.7% after it told Reuters it targeted 20% revenue growth this year. INDIA The Indian market ended a volatile session modestly higher on Friday, with TCS, Tata Motors and ICICI Bank leading the gains. After fluctuating between gains and losses, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended up about 50 points or 0.26% at 17,956, with 17 of its components closing higher. TCS soared over 6% after announcing forecast-beating first-quarter earnings. HCL Technologies rallied 4.39%, Wipro edged up marginally and Infosys rose 0.70%. Mid-tier software stocks like Mphasis (up 1.54%), Rolta India (down 0.33%) and Patni Computer Systems (down 0.59%) closed on a mixed note. Tata Motors advanced 2.65% after reporting 46% growth in global vehicle sales for June. However, other automakers such as Mahindra & Mahindra, Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto and Maruti Suzuki closed subdued. The 50-share Nifty added 15 points or 0.28% to end below the 5,400 mark, while the mid-cap and small-cap indexes on the BSE gained 0.44% and 0.66%, respectively. In the broader market, advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by 1604 to 1310 shares. Tata Steel slipped 0.41% on reports that critical law and order situation in eastern India due to the Maoist problem is impacting its business. SAIL, Jindal Steel, Hindalco Industries and Sterlite Industries were the other decliners in the metal pack. State-run oil companies ONGC (up 1.32%) and IOC (up 0.92%) closed firm on disinvestment reports. Heavyweight Reliance Industries closed down 0.93%. V. Srikanth, head of markets for South Asia at Citigroup Inc., is joining Reliance Industries as deputy chief financial officer, media reports said. Sugar stocks like Shree Renuka, Bajaj Hindusthan, Balrampur Chini and Dhampur Sugar rose by 0.2%-2%. Weak monsoon rains thus far this year will not significantly hurt crop output in the country, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said. Jet Airways, which reportedly entered into a code sharing agreement with Kenya Airways, to enable passengers travel on each other's flights, ended down 0.29%. In the banking sector, ICICI Bank rose 2.32%, SBI edged up marginally and Axis Bank gained 1.05%, while HDFC Bank ended down 1.24%. Dhanalakshmi Bank, rechristened as Dhanlaxmi Bank?, edged down 0.38% on equity dilution worries. Aarti Drugs rose 0.55% after it resumed operations at its Valsad unit. NMDC and Sesa Goa rose modestly on speculation that a ban on iron ore exports is unlikely. Everonn Education climbed over 13% after it convened a board meet on July 19 to consider issuing redeemable optionally convertible debentures to persons not forming part of promoter group. Other education-related stocks like Aptech, NIIT, Educomp and Navneet Publications gained between 1.7% and 3.3%. Castrol India gained 0.60% on reporting a 17% rise in June-quarter net profit. BASF India (up 0.32%), South Indian Bank (up 2.15%), Chambal Fertilizer (up 1.52%) and UTV Software Communications (up 7.94%) advanced after posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Honeywell Automation plunged nearly 7% on disappointing results Diamond Power Infrastructure rose 2.21% on winning a Rs.332-crore contract. IL&FS Transportation Networks added 1.89% on securing a Rs.536 crore NHAI project. Technofab Engg rallied 23% on its debut. DCM Shriram Industries fell 2.54% on going ex-dividend for a Rs.3 dividend per share. AUSTRALIA The Australian share market hit a two-day low in wafer thin trading Friday after disappointing US economic data and an earnings miss from Google triggered some risk aversion in the Asian time zone. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed down 19.9 points, or 0.5% at 4422.7, after an early rise to 4458.7. Trading volume was extremely light. The index rose 0.6% for the week, slowing from a 3.7% rise the week before. On the charts, the index narrowly broke support from the 50-day moving average near 4427.0, after shying off resistance, near 4470.0, from a downtrend line drawn off the April peak. Locally, resources mostly weighed on the market Friday, with Rio Tinto down 1.3% to A$65.78, Newcrest down 2.1% to A$34.30, Fortescue down 3.8% to A$4.04 and BHP up 2 cents at A$38.15. Fortescue hit an eight-day low of A$4.00 after Russian steelmaker Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel said it may sell, swap or use its stake in Fortescue to help finance development of its Prioskolsk iron ore project to help boost its self-sufficiency in raw materials, according to Bloomberg. A Fortescue spokesman declined to comment. OZ Minerals rose 1.4% to A$1.13 after reporting an 18% rise in second quarter gold production from the first quarter and a 25% increase in full year gold production guidance. Financials are mixed, with Westpac down 0.7% to A$22.58 and QBE Insurance up 0.5% to A$18.31. NEW ZEALAND New Zealand shares fell Friday, mirroring most Asian equity markets in another lackluster session marked by tepid volumes. The benchmark NZX-50 ended down 0.6%, or 17 points, at 2985.76. The index was flat over the course of the week. Auckland Airport ended down 1.0% at NZ$1.94. Earlier Friday, the company said it had once again delayed construction of a second runway due to weak passenger numbers after the global economic downturn and ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Carpet maker Cavalier ended up 1.6% to NZ$2.50 after it upgraded its profit guidance for the year that ended June 30 although trading volume again was very light. Large-cap stocks were hurt by the overall weak sentiment, with construction company Fletcher Building shedding 0.3% to NZ$7.62 and bellwether Telecom ending down 0.5% at NZ$1.89. Casino operator Sky City fell 0.3% to NZ$2.96. Brokers said the market will continue to drift sideways with investors focused on offshore moves until there are more local drivers. |
| Global Commodities
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' ..... | Spot gold fell 1.9% over the week to $1,189 a troy ounce. Oil slid, with Nymex August West Texas Intermediate down 0.5% to $75.69 a barrel and ICE September Brent dropping 0.8% to $75.07. Wheat shot to a 13-month high as a drought in Russia sparked supply concerns. CBOT September wheat rose 8.2% to $5.82 a bushel. Investors searching for signs of a double-dip recession could do worse than look at iron ore. Prices have tumbled by more than a third in three months, as Chinese steelmakers have scaled down production. While prices for other commodities have stabilised after sharp falls in May, as concerns about a renewed slump rose, the price of iron ore, central to the global economy because of its use as a raw material for steel, has continued to fall. Oil and copper, for instance, have recovered from recent lows, but spot benchmark iron ore - 62% iron content - has dropped 18% in the past three weeks and 36% from its April peak. At the same time, the Baltic Dry Index of freight costs, regarded by some as a barometer of the global economy when it plunged in 2008, has fallen 60% in less than two months. The main reason for the plunge in iron ore is that record output by Chinese steelmakers flooded the market with steel this year. China's economy, too, has been cooling as Beijing has sought to curb inflation. The world is awash with steel theoretically. That has pushed steel prices down and squeezed the margins of steelmakers, many of whom are paying contracted iron ore prices significantly higher than the spot price. Steel Market Intelligence, a market research company, said the Chinese steel industry had brought its troubles upon itself by "producing high-cost steel at a breakneck pace". "We are stunned by the lack of financial good sense by China's high-cost steelmakers who continue to turn gold into straw," it says. Seasonal factors, such as a traditional manufacturing slowdown in China during summer rains, have exacerbated the effects of oversupply. Government measures to cool economic growth and the removal of an export rebate have hit steel production. A recent Steel Business Briefing survey showed that half of the mills surveyed expected to cut production this quarter, albeit by less than 5%. "Every mill that you talk to of a certain size is definitely getting in that mood," says a Macquarie Bank analyst, noting that with steel prices flat compared with last year and iron ore prices at twice the price they were this time last year, mills have no incentive to continue producing. Figures published Thursday showed crude steel output for June, on a daily average basis, fell 1% from May. But, in spite of the tough conditions, there are no signs yet that mills are defaulting on iron ore shipments, according to analysts and industry executives. In 2008, when commodity prices tumbled as the world sank into recession, many Chinese steelmakers were accused of defaulting to take advantage of cheaper spot prices. |
| Global Currencies
In for a Penny, in for a Pound ..... | 
The Dollar dropped to a 10-week low against the Euro this week, with the single currency breaching $1.30 for the first time in two months as concerns over the US recovery grew. This raised speculation that the Federal Reserve would act to ease monetary conditions further in a bid to stimulate the economy. Weak US economic data, including softer-than-expected retail sales and manufacturing activity data, sent two-year US Treasury yields to record lows. This coincided with the release of the minutes of the Fed's July policy meeting at which it revised down its growth and inflation forecasts. The Fed said it would have to consider monetary easing measures if the economic outlook were to worsen "appreciably". The Euro was also boosted as a successful Spanish bond auction and a well-received Greek government bills sale eased concerns over the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The Dollar fell to a low of $1.3007 against the Euro, its weakest level since May 10, before recouping some of its losses to stand down 2.4% at $1.2940 on the week. The Euro also advanced elsewhere, up 0.7% to £0.8437 against the pound on the week and gaining 1.2% to SFr1.3530 against the Swiss franc. Meanwhile, declining US yields helped to undermine the Dollar's haven appeal, pushing investors looking for safety from declining asset markets towards the relative safety of the Yen. This pushed the Dollar down to a nine-month low of Y86.36 against the Yen, taking it down 2.5% against the Japanese currency over the week. Analysts said a break of this level could open up the way for the Yen to test the 14-year high of Y84.80 it hit against the Dollar last November. In theory, the Dollar should continue to move lower against the Yen, irrespective of risk sentiment, as long as investors remain focused on weak US growth conditions. Should US economic data weaken further, rising expectations of further US monetary easing will keep the Dollar under pressure and the Yen in demand as a haven currency. However, should the corporate earnings season boost risk sentiment further, the downside for the Dollar is likely to be more severe as rising risk appetite prompted US investors to reverse repatriation flows and push funds abroad. The Dollar fell 1.8% to $1.5338 against the pound over the week and was down 1.2% to a three-month trough of SFr1.0453 against the Swiss franc. South Africa's Rand traded softer against the greenback on Friday as players squared off short Dollar positions ahead of the weekend and as the market factored in the off-chance of a rate cut next week. The Rand was at 7.6040 to the Dollar, down 0.58% after ending Thursday trade at 7.56. To bring currencies to a close this week, here in China with the RMB. China's RMB was higher against the US Dollar late Friday afternoon, following the Euro's strong gains against the US unit overnight. But expectations that the RMB will appreciate further in the near term cooled somewhat as the central bank has only gradually lowered the Dollar-RMB central parity rate. On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.7750 around 0930 GMT, down from Thursday's close of CNY6.7785. It traded between CNY6.7731 and CNY6.7776. The RMB fell 0.02% against the US Dollar this week, compared with a combined 0.78% appreciation in the previous three weeks, after the central bank pledged to increase the flexibility of the RMB's exchange rate on June 19. |
| China
Key news eminating from China this week ..... |
 The Chinese economy grew at 10.3% in the second quarter over the year before, down from the previous three months as government efforts to cool the housing market and infrastructure investment began to bite. The comparable first quarter figure was 11.9%, when many economists feared China was close to overheating. For the first half of the year, the economy expanded by 11.1%. Although the slowdown was expected, other figures on Thursday suggested the economy could be cooling more quickly than forecast, including a drop in the expansion of industrial production to 13.7% in June, year on year, from the 16.5% increase in May. The government said it was relaxed about the reduced pace of economic activity. "The slowing will help our economy avoid overheating and assist in the transformation of our economic model," said Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics. However, the weakness has unnerved investors at a time when many hoped China could help sustain a global economy that shows signs of faltering in the US and Europe. It could also put Beijing under domestic pressure to unwind some of its recent tightening measures, especially in housing. China publishes growth figures on a year-on-year basis but does not release a sequential, seasonally-adjusted growth figure which would give a more accurate impression of the direction of economic activity. Private sector estimates vary considerably, with Goldman Sachs putting the implied quarter-on-quarter growth rate at 8% on an annualised basis, while Standard Chartered estimated 10%. While the pace of new lending has been slowing since last autumn, the principal tightening measure has been the campaign since mid-April to try to limit speculation in the property market and stem loans to investment companies operated by local governments. The weakening in activity appears to have blunted the recent surge in inflation, with the consumer price index falling from 3.1% in May to 2.9% in June and factory-gate inflation down from 7.1% to 6.4%. At the same time, exports and consumption have remained robust, with the government announcing today that retail sales grew 18.3% in June over the same month last year, following a 44% increase in exports in June, year-on-year. Fixed asset investment increased 25.5% in the first half of the year, which economists said implied an increase of 24.7% in June, year on year, slightly down from 25.4% in May. The official China Securities Journal said in a front-page editorial on Thursday that the government should extend active fiscal policy and refrain from further policy tightening to prevent a sharper slowdown. "In the second half of the year, external demand will gradually weaken and the dividend from the trade surplus will fall. This requires an increase in overall social investment and a halt to tightening of both fiscal policy and monetary policy," the paper wrote. *************************************** Agricultural Bank of China's shares finished their first day of trading in Shanghai up less than 1% from their issue price, well shy of the 10% jump the bank's management had targeted. Shares of AgBank, which is also listing in Hong Kong, finished the day at Rmb2.70 per share, up only marginally from the Rmb2.68 per share price set for the initial public offering. Although disappointing in the context of the Chinese market, which usually sees share prices soar on their trading debut, the fact that the shares did not fall would have come as a relief to bank and government financial officials. AgBank's Hong Kong-listed shares will start trading on Friday. Trading was scheduled to begin in Shanghai one day earlier in part because it was hoped that a strong performance on the first day in the mainland market would inspire confidence in international investors, the vast majority of whom are only able to participate in the Hong Kong market. The Chinese government has made the successful listing of AgBank - set to be the world's largest-ever initial public offering at $22.1bn - a political priority, and many market participants believe Beijing ordered large state-controlled investors to intervene in the market to ensure the shares did not fall below their issue price. For much of the afternoon the bank's shares bounced between Rmb2.69 and Rmb2.70 per share amid heavy turnover of more than Rmb3bn. AgBank was the last of China's large banks to be recapitalised in preparation for a public listing and it is generally viewed in China as the weakest of the top lenders. AgBank will only break the IPO record set by local rival Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in 2006 if its shares can stay above the issue price of Rmb2.68 in Shanghai and HK$3.20 in Hong Kong for the next 30 days. If the shares fall below the issue price during the period, AgBank's underwriters can claw back a 15% "greenshoe" over-allotment quota to help stabilise the share price, which would result in the bank raising less than ICBC's $21.9bn. *************************************** China's fiscal revenue increased 14.7% annually in June to CNY 787.94 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported Thursday. During the first six months of 2010, fiscal revenues totaled CNY 4.33 trillion, up 27.6%. Fiscal spending increased 26.8% annually to CNY 811.9 billion in June and by 17% to CNY 3.38 trillion in the first half. Elsewhere, the Ministry of Commerce said foreign direct investment in China increased 19.6% in the first half of 2010. FDI totaled US$51.4 billion in the first six months. China attracted US$12.5 billion in FDI in June, up 39.6% from the same period of last year. *************************************** Faltering confidence in the Chinese economy could threaten the plans of the country's banks to shore up capital reserves, the head of China Construction Bank, has warned. Most of China's big banks have announced vast capital-raisings plans. On top of the projected $22bn initial public offering of Agriculture Bank of China, announced last week, CCB and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are between them raising up to $21bn in fresh capital. The moves follow a directive from China's banking regulator to increase their core tier one capital to more than 9% - higher than the norm in much of the rest of the world - following a vast expansion of lending last year. But Guo Shuqing, the chairman of China Construction Bank, said overall confidence in the economy was more of an issue than the availability of investor funds. "The risk is not the volume of issuance that will come from the banks, such as ABC's IPO. It's more people's confidence, how worried they are about the Chinese economy in general," he said. Mr Guo played down concerns about China's property bubble and the damage that could do the banks' asset quality, saying "the value of mortgages is only about 15% of GDP, much lower than in Europe and the US." He said that while a "bubble" had developed in a number of coastal cities, "the market overall" did not have a problem. Last week, bank data showed that the non-performing loan ratio had fallen from 1.58% at the beginning of the year to 1.33% by end-May, though analysts believe that number could rise sharply once the effects of last year's lending splurge matures. "I think we should be more worried about the systemic risks in the banking system. The risk controls in banks are very different from one to the other. Even if some small banks have problems, this can be a risk for the whole system," he said. Mr Guo was wary about policies which forced banks to dole out housing finance. "Globally, the world has to re-examine the whole idea of social political targets. Subprime lending in the US was a social political target. It was part of the American dream allowing people to live in large houses. And look what happened." He also rejected alarm generated by a recent wave of reports about sky-high local government debt in China, which some analysts have put as high as Rmb7,000bn ($443bn). Mr Guo confirmed that the regulator had asked banks to slow lending to local government companies but said that many of them were in fact cash-generative businesses which could service their loans. "Quite a lot of these companies are commercial companies, which are operating businesses with cash flows, like tollways, ports and railways. Many of these cities and counties are developing very fast, so there is no problem in paying back these funds." Mr Guo quoted estimates of local government debt of Rmb3,000bn, only about one-third of which were to companies which are not generating cash flow." "The total government debt to GDP is very low in China. Even if it increased by about 10 percentage points, it would only be about 30%. So it is very affordable." |
| Summary
The coming week looks like ..... | 
I mentioned in my Newsletter last week, that currencies were becoming more important than stockmarkets. Over the course of the past week, several key currency correlations broke down in the short run, but other more meaningful correlations persisted. The major anomalies were in outsized Euro gains, followed closely by Sterling, and extreme US Dollar weakness. The best way to look at Euro and Pound strength is as mainly the result of another wave of short-covering, similar to what occurred in the middle of May. In this respect, the outsized gains in Eur/AUD, Eur/CAD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/CAD. If it were a case of pure US Dollar weakness, those currency-crosses would not have seen such gains, reinforcing a global view that this was a position-driven adjustment. Also, according to recent correlations, a weaker US Dollar should really have boosted stocks, oil and gold, but clearly that didn't happen either. Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, US weakness undermines the prospects for the global recovery overall. From that view, many of the market moves in the past week make more sense: oil and stocks lower on slowing global outlooks; Japanese Yen crosses versus most currencies lower on heightened risk aversion over the deteriorating outlook; and Yen and Swiss Franc strength on safe haven flows. I think the bulk of Euro and Pound short-covering has likely occurred and I am leery of chasing those currencies higher. Anticipating that increased risk aversion may eventually lead to the US Dollar rebounding on safe haven demand, I would prefer to be sellers on remaining strength in Eur/USD between 1.3000-1.3150 and in GBP/USD between 1.5400/5530. But that is my view on currencies, there is plenty happening in the week ahead but I still think that currencies will drive the markets in the week ahead - as they pretty much did do this week. Next week is the first "peak week" of second-quarter earnings season, with more than one-third of the Dow Jones Industrial Average components and one-fifth of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index reporting. Sales of existing homes and housing starts both likely declined in June, according to a poll of economists before those figures are released next week. And President Obama is scheduled to sign historic financial-reform legislation Wednesday. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are expected to report lackluster second-quarter results Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, following turbulent markets and desiccated business demand. The biggest dent to the investment banks has been the erosion of fixed-income markets, which have been one of the biggest profit drivers as Wall Street recovered from the financial crisis. Slightly better results are predicted for drug makers Johnson & Johnson, which reports Tuesday, and Eli Lilly & Co., on Thursday. The industry has seen demand come back, at least for flagship drugs, as the economy has recovered. But J&J has been dealing with a string of quality-control problems for its nonprescription drugs that has hurt sales and damaged the company's reputation. Lilly faces patent expirations starting with Zyprexa in October of next year and also has been pressured by drug-approval delays. As we look ahead to tonight on Wall Street, the question is as to whether the very positive news on the settlement of the Goldman Sachs fraud case and the apparently successful plugging of the oil leak by BP will be enough to overcome the reality of weakening US economic data. The Goldmans settlement provides a big boost for that stock for two reasons. One is that it ends the uncertainty as to just what Goldmans might have to pay up - uncertainty which has hung like a cloud over the stock while other bank stocks have been recovering - and two it is an extremely good result for Goldmans. The upshot is the bank cannot be sued in a civil court. The $550m settlement is shrapnel compared to what the bank might have had to stump up if it were successfully sued for fraud both criminally and civilly. The result is also a boost for US financial stocks in general, given Wall Street was further concerned that someone else might be next. The Goldmans case has set a precedent, such that if the SEC decides to charge another bank, Wall Street will expect a settlement to be the result. A successful plugging of the oil spill will be a boost for the oil industry, taking a lot of the pressure off despite an ongoing moratorium on deep-sea drilling, a boost for the economic fortunes of the Gulf states in the US, and generally a positive psychological boost for the world. But ever weakening US economic data is the counterbalance, and probably supports the fact the Australian market is struggling to go anywhere Friday. Next week in the US sees a lot of housing data, and they have the capacity to be quite weak indeed. Across the week the US will see releases of the monthly housing market sentiment index, housing starts, building permits, existing home sales and the FHFA house price index. The Conference Board will release its June leading economic indicators index on Thursday. Global markets may be buoyed by a second rate rise from the Bank of Canada if that is its decision on Tuesday, while in Europe anticipation will build throughout the week ahead of the scheduled release of European bank "stress tests", due out on Friday. The stress test issue has split the market, with the optimists suggesting most banks will pass comfortably while the pessimists have suggested the ECB will simply start with an outcome it would like and then set the tests so that most banks pass. So if it turns out that most banks did indeed pass, it still won't convince the critics. In Australia, next week brings the minutes of the RBA's July meeting in Tuesday, the Westpac leading economic index on Wednesday and the second quarter import price index on Friday. All told, it's a mixed week for data, little in its own right globally but this leaves markets open to rumour, speculation and rhetoric and in my experience, this leads to heavy volatility. So next week will be volatile I'm sure. |
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Newsletter Written By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International | |
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