Financial Page International

17 October 2009 - Global Markets Review

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
It was always going to be a 'no-brainer'; Friday morning the outgoing (coincidentally, outgoing the same day as BofA report) .....

CEO of Bank of America, Kenneth Lewis stated that he will give up his salary and bonus for this year, in another indignity for the outgoing chief executive.
 
And then, not surprisingly .....

The Bank posted losses of $1 Billion US Dollars! 

A spokesman for the bank said that Mr Lewis, who will retire at the end of the year after a 40-year career at America's biggest bank, agreed to give up his compensation to avoid a showdown with Kenneth Feinberg, President Barack Obama's pay czar.

Mr Lewis will retire with a package of pension, benefits and stock awards worth a minimum of $69.3 million.

His large payoff has annoyed shareholders who blame the chief executive for driving BoA into financial difficulties with his takeover mania.

The bank was forced to accept a $20 billion bailout from the Government in January to help it swallow losses at Merrill Lynch, the investment bank it bought at the height of the credit crunch last year. The Government has propped BoA up with $45 billion in total.

Shareholders stripped Mr Lewis of his chairman title in a vote in April after learning that BoA had permitted Merrill to pay $3.6 billion in 2008 bonuses despite its $27 billion full-year loss.

Mr Lewis and other BoA executives are being investigated by the New York Attorney General and a Congressional committee over the bonus payments and other aspects of the Merrill acquisition.

He also faces the prospect of criminal charges from the Securities and Exchange Commission over BoA's failure to disclose to shareholders all of the facts of the Merrill deal.

Wow, the SEC willing to file Criminal Charges; they must have suddenly found a scapegoat that is easy to prosecute - what happened to all those responsible for not spotting the Madoff scam?

Answer; they all got promoted and moved to higher positions!

Cynical aren't I?

Now before I go down the 'obviously biased route' (which I have been accused of doing for the past goodness knows how many years), let's look at the real world outside of Disneyland USA - which is not located in Florida or California, but currently in Wall Street, New York!

In Europe, Dutch Bank DSB went to the wall this week; Greek unemployment rose a whole 1% in July to 9.6% from 8.6% in June and Swiss unemployment rose to 4.1% (and that is HUGE for Switzerland).

Aircraft movements at Vienna airport are down 10%; the China Banking Regulatory Commission said the economic situation remains "grim" (outside Europe admittedly, but it fits with my Newsletter) and Portugal saw hotel revenues fall dramatically.

But markets bound upwards irrespective!

The Greek playwright Euripides wrote; "Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad."

Clearly, the Congress of the United States is ignoring the budget, current account, and balance of payments deficits that are currently exploding on their watch. The argument of many who are connected with Congress goes something like this:

'During the Reagan Administration we ran deficits, and soon after during the Clinton Administration we had surpluses to counterbalance them.' Their logic being that some similar gift in the form of budget surpluses will magically appear in the near future.

It might be prudent one would think to point out that the actions being taken Friday are in many ways the antithesis of the actions taken during the Reagan Administration. Friday, the US is running trade, current account, and off the charts record budget deficits while the current administration is proposing raising taxes.

The Reagan administration, with congress' agreement ran deficits, in part because they cut taxes, especially capital gains taxes.

The tax cuts created incentives to invest and to create new capital. As a result of this decision, venture capital flowed into the high technology companies, and many new industries were fostered, such as semiconductor, communications, biotech, software, the internet, and many other high tech areas were stimulated. This growth produced many millionaires and created huge tax receipts for the government in the 1990's and early 2000's.

The current situation is just the opposite. Congress is discussing raising taxes while financing two wars and spending huge sums on social programs.

There is less incentive for the entreprenEurial to take risk, build companies, and form capital. Venture capital is not pouring into new technology or any other type of new ventures. In fact, businesses Friday are having a hard time getting bank financing.

Simply put, no nation will generate big tax revenues from new businesses if they do not invest in them.

When this is pointed out to politicians of both parties, they revert to the old hope that something good will happen ..... but they are unable to suggest what that something good might be. Go figure!

But let's not go down the route of 'picking-on' the US.

Britain's state-rescued Lloyds Banking Group on Friday said it would cut up to 460 more positions, bringing to about 8,000 the total number of job losses it has announced since the start of the year.

LBG said more jobs would disappear as a result of an agreement to sell its loss-making Halifax Estate Agency business to LSL Property Services for the nominal fee of one Pound (1.1 Euros, 1.6 Dollars).

"As part of the transaction, there are 121 ... banking counters located within the estate agent offices which will close early in the New Year," said LBG.

"It is anticipated that as a result of the counter closures, up to 460 colleagues will be affected."

An additional 1,050 staff currently working across LBG's 218 estate agency offices will transfer to LSL Property Services on completion of the sale that is expected to conclude in January.

LBG, which is 43% owned by the taxpayer after a massive government bailout, has slashed thousands of jobs since its creation earlier this year following Lloyds TSB's takeover of rival banking group Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS).

So the US has problems; the UK has problems and at long last, Friday's trading session in America shows that the rest of the world has problems because in my view, global markets have been taking their lead from the US and have gotten used to that.

Now try getting used to taking your lead from China!

Okay; let's quickly go to the numbers on the board for the week that was - before I get on my Saturday soap-box':
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks fell, pulling benchmark indexes down from a one-year high, as General Electric Co. and Bank of America Corp. reported disappointing results and a gauge of consumer confidence trailed economists' estimates. The Dollar rose for the first time in five days and Treasuries gained.

GE, the world's biggest maker of jet engines, slumped 4.2% after reporting $1.9 billion less revenue than analysts forecast. Bank of America retreated 4.6% following its $1 billion loss. Google Inc. rose 3.8% as Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said the worst of the recession has passed and the company is now more focused on acquisitions.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 0.8% to 1,087.68 at 4:04 p.m. in New York, trimming a second straight weekly advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 67.03 points, or 0.7%, to 9,995.91. The Dollar strengthened 0.3% against the Euro.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.5% this week as better-than- estimated results at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Intel Corp. spurred optimism that earnings are recovering from the longest slump since the Great Depression. The Dow climbed above 10,000 for the first time in a year on Oct. 14.

The VIX, the benchmark index for US stock options, has fallen for 10 straight days, its longest streak of declines since May 2005, as investors pay less for protection against declines in equities. The VIX closed Friday at 21.43, its lowest level in 13 months.

S&P 500 futures rose after the stock market closed Thursday following better-than-estimated earnings from Google. So far, 80.4% of companies in the index that released third-quarter earnings beat consensus analyst estimates. That compares with 72.3% during the entire April-through-June period, which matched the highest proportion in Bloomberg data going back to 1993.

Eight of 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 turned lower Friday, led by a 2.6% drop in financial shares. Equities extended declines after the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 69.4 from 73.5 in September, which was the highest in more than a year. Measures of expectations and current conditions both fell.

GE slumped 4.2% to $16.08. Third-quarter profit declined 45% as the company scaled back real estate and consumer lending and sold fewer medical machines, leading to a steeper drop in sales than analysts projected. Revenue decreased 20% to $37.8 billion.

Bank of America slipped 4.6% to $17.26. The lender's $1 billion third-quarter loss, or 26 cents per diluted share, compared with a profit of $1.18 billion, or 15 cents, a year earlier.

Financial shares have surged 144% since the S&P 500's 12-year low on March 9, compared with the index's overall gain of 61%.

International Business Machines Corp. dropped 5% to $121.64, its sharpest decline since February. The world's largest computer-services company said new contract signings declined last quarter, a sign that customers aren't yet ready to increase spending as the economy begins to recover.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. fell 7.3% to $5.74 after the chipmaker predicted that sales will be "up modestly" in the fourth quarter, a forecast that fell short of some analysts' estimates. Micron Technology Inc., the biggest US producer of computer memory-chips, declined the most in the S&P 500, losing 8.1% to $7.95.

Google gained 3.8% to $549.85. The company reported profit and sales that beat analysts' estimates after the recovering economy boosted demand for online ads and e-commerce.

The Dollar Index, used to track the currency against six major US trading partners, rose from a 14-month low. The gauge added 0.2% to 75.640 as some investors bet that the currency's four-day decline was overstated given signs of a US economic recovery. The Dollar advanced against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

MGIC Investment Corp. dropped 12% to $6.42. The largest US mortgage insurer posted its ninth straight quarterly loss after a record number of homeowners failed to meet mortgage payments.

Genworth Financial Inc., the life insurer and mortgage guarantor, lost 6.4% to $11.23.

Discover Financial Services, the credit-card company that took $1.3 billion from the Treasury's bank rescue fund, lost 6.3% after it was cut to "sell" from "hold" by EVA Dimensions.

Harris Corp. advanced 7.2% to $39.88 for the second- biggest gain in the S&P 500. The maker of military radios was awarded a $419 million contract for the US Army for multiband radio systems. The initial delivery order under the contract is valued at $165 million, Harris said.

Estée Lauder Cos. rose 5.1% to $41.11. The maker of Clinique and Bobbi Brown cosmetics said first-quarter earnings will be significantly higher than previously forecast because of better-than-anticipated sales.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. gained the most in the S&P 500, adding 7.7% to $105.84. The owner of the largest credit-default swap clearinghouse and CME Group Inc. were upgraded to "outperform" from "market perform" at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.

An analyst at Quantitative Analysis Service said the rally in US stocks will last for another six to nine months, while a strategist at AMP Capital Markets said the S&P 500 may be due for a "stiff" slump as it approaches a resistance level

The S&P 500's rebound from its March low brought it close to 1,121.4, which represents the 50% retracement level that so-called Fibonacci analysts identify as a key resistance point.

The index is also diverging from measures of price and breadth momentum, pointing to a deeper "correction" than those that have occurred since the rally began, the strategist said. A correction is usually defined as a drop of at least 10% from a peak.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks retreated from a one-year high as results from General Electric Co. and Bank of America Corp. disappointed investors and US consumer confidence dropped more than forecast.

National Bank of Greece SA led the nation's lenders lower after the government said it may impose a one-off tax on company earnings. Safran SA, which makes commercial jet engines with GE, sank 5.9% after saying 2010 will be a "challenging" year. National Express Group Plc fell the most in 8 years as CVC Capital Partners Ltd. scrapped a takeover bid for the UK bus and rail company.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index retreated 0.7% to 245.58 after closing Thursday at the highest level since Oct. 3, 2008. The regional gauge trimmed its weekly advance to 1.2% Friday as GE's sales trailed estimates and Bank of America posted a loss.

A gauge of banks on the Stoxx 600 declined 1.4% as Bank of America, the biggest US lender, posted a $1 billion third-quarter loss. Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, lost 2.8% to 54.83 Euros and BNP Paribas SA, the largest lender in France, sank 2.7% to 54.70 Euros.

GERMANY

German stocks declined after Bank of America Corp. reported a third-quarter loss, sales from General Electric Co. missed analysts' estimates and confidence among US consumers fell more than forecast.

Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG dropped more than 2%. Siemens AG, Europe's largest engineering company, also retreated. Salzgitter AG and ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany's biggest steelmakers, slid with metal prices.

The benchmark DAX Index fell 1.5% to 5,743.39, trimming its weekly gain to 0.6%. The measure has still rallied 57% since March 6 as companies reported better- than-estimated earnings and economic data signaled the global recession is nearing an end. The broader HDAX Index decreased 1.5% Friday.

Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest bank, lost 2.8% to 54.83 Euros, while smaller rival Commerzbank declined 3% to 8.38 Euros.

Siemens tumbled 2.8% to 66.56 Euros. GE, the world's biggest maker of jet engines and medical imaging machines, posted third-quarter revenue of $37.80 billion, while analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated $39.66 billion.

Salzgitter and ThyssenKrupp retreated 1.6% to 70 Euros and 2.3% to 25.12 Euros, respectively. Copper and nickel declined on the London Metal Exchange, weighing on basic- resource shares across Europe.

Funkwerk AG sank 18% to 6.31 Euros, the biggest loss since July 2006. The German maker of phone systems for cars and railways cut its forecast for 2009 due to an unexpected sharp drop in its export business. The company sees sales dropping to about 230 million Euros ($342 million) and a loss before interest and taxes of up to 19 million Euros.

IVG Immobilien AG rallied 5.8% to 8.06 Euros as the company said it sold a number of properties in recent weeks valued at a total of 470 million Euros.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index fell 56.23, or 1.5%, to 3,827.60, trimming its second straight weekly advance to 0.7%. The SBF 120 Index fell 1.4% Friday.

Aeroports de Paris tumbled 2.52 Euros, or 4.3%, to 56 Euros. The company, which runs the French capital's Orly and Roissy-Charles de Gaulle airports, said traffic fell 4% in September to 7.1 million passengers from year-earlier levels.

Archos sank 80 cents, or 13%, to 5.20 Euros, the steepest drop since March. The maker of portable music and video players reported a 24% drop in third- quarter revenue to 14 million Euros ($20.9 million) and said it will sell new shares to raise funds before the end of the year.

Atos Origin slumped 76 cents, or 2.2%, to 34.19 Euros. France's second-biggest computer-services provider said third-quarter sales fell 5.6% to 1.23 billion Euros from a year-earlier pro forma figure of 1.30 billion Euros.

Carrefour dropped 1.04 Euros, or 3.3%, to 30.15 Euros, snapping two days of gains. Europe's largest retailer reported its third straight quarterly sales decline and said profit would be at the low end of its forecast range.

GL Events rose 21 cents, or 1.2%, to 17.12 Euros, gaining for a second day. The exhibition and events organizer said it plans to sell real-estate assets in Hungary and Italy to reduce net debt by 83 million Euros.

Safran slid 74.5 cents, or 5.9%, to 12 Euros, a sixth day of declines, after the maker of commercial jet engines with General Electric Co. said 2010 will be a "challenging" year.

Sanofi-Aventis dropped 2.29 Euros, or 4.3%, to 51.28 Euros, the sharpest decline since June. France's biggest drugmaker was cut to "underperform" from "select list" at Cheuvreux, which cited lower sales estimates for Multaq.

France's current account deficit widened in August largely because of an increase in the goods trade deficit, the Bank of France said Tuesday.

The current account deficit stood at a seasonally adjusted 3.7 billion Euros in August, up from 1.5 billion Euros in the previous month. The deficit in the goods trade widened to 3.9 billion Euros from 2 billion Euros in July. The surplus on services trade contracted to 0.8 billion Euros from 1 billion Euros and that on income account remained unchanged at 1.4 billion Euros.

Further, the capital account showed nil balance for the second straight month in August, while the financial account showed a surplus of 3 billion Euros, in contrast to the 15.4 billion Euros deficit in the preceding month.

Tuesday, the French statistical office INSEE announced that the consumer price index or CPI dropped 0.4% year-on-year in September, compared to the 0.2% fall expected by economists'. This was the fifth consecutive month of decline in consumer prices.

Month-on-month, the CPI declined 0.2% in September, in contrast to a 0.5% increase in the previous month. Economists predicted a decline of 0.1%.

In September, the consumer price index without tobacco decreased 0.4% annually, and it was down 0.2% compared to the preceding month.

Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP decreased 0.4% on an annual basis in September, compared to the 0.2% fall expected by economists'. On a monthly basis, the HICP was down 0.2%. Economists expected a flat reading for September.

BELGIUM

The Bel 20 in Brussels closed out Friday at 2,578.14, down 0.24% for the session.

Belgium unveiled plans on Tuesday to cap its budget deficit at 5.7% of gross domestic product next year with higher diesel prices and levies on the nuclear sector and on banks and insurers.

That compared with 6% expected for the Euro zone and a 6.7% figure Belgium could have ended up facing without new measures, Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy told parliament.

Belgium aims to balance its budget in 2015.

Van Rompuy said in his state of the union address that the government expected economic growth in 2010 to be 0.4% and 1.9% in 2011 after the crisis of the past 12 months -- with a contraction of 3.1% in 2009.

'It's not the time for spectacle,' Van Rompuy said (I think he means 'speculation').

Belgium has agreed to extend the life of its three oldest nuclear power reactors for 10 years until 2025 in exchange for annual payments from producers, primarily Electrabel, the Belgian arm of French utility GDF Suez.

Rival SPE, in which EDF plans to buy Centrica's 51% stake, has drawing rights on some 7% of Belgian production.

The 215-245 million Euro annual bill for 2010-2014 is less than the government had initially been seeking.

Belgium will also be charging banks and insurers for guaranteeing deposits and expects to raise 220 million Euros ($325 million) in 2010 and 670 million in 2011.

Belgium has spent more than 20 billion Euros bailing out financial services groups such as Fortis, KBC and Dexia in the past year.

Febelfin, the federation of the Belgian financial sector, said the payments were very substantial and risked undermining Belgium's competitive position. It was also concerned that the burden should be shared fairly among financial companies.

A tax measure designed to attract investment -- notional interest deduction -- would be limited.

Conversely, sales tax for hotels, restaurants and cafes would drop to 12% from 21 and a reduced rate of 6% for the construction sector continued until the end of March.

Belgium was one of nine countries against which the European Commission launched disciplinary action last week over its excessive budget deficit.

The Commission is expected in November to set a date for them to rein in the deficit to below 3% of GDP.

Belgium's central bank has forecast a budget deficit this year of 5.5% of GDP and a contraction of 3.5%. The Belgian economy is one of the world's most sensitive to trade and seen as a bellwether for the Euro zone.

Belgian biotech Galapagos said on Thursday it planned to raise capital through a share issue on Friday to help speed up its clinical product development.

The company also said it was well on track to achieve its 2009 operational and financial objectives, including a target for 100 million Euros in revenues.

Galapagos said it would issue up to 2,125,925 new ordinary shares started on Friday.

The new shares will be offered through an accelerated bookbuild offering to eligible investors, and will list on Euronext Brussels following their issuance.

Galapagos, a bone and joint specialist, said earlier this week it had expanded its alliance with Merck for the development of treatments for the hardening of arteries.

It reported a net loss of 7.3 million Euros in the first half of 2009, on revenues of 37.7 million Euros.

THE NETHERLANDS

The AEX in Amsterdam finished the week at 322.31, a decline of 0.89% for the day.

Dutch lender DSB was taken over by the central bank and will likely be liquidated after suffering a run amid reports it was insolvent.

Central Bank President Nout Wellink said DSB's liquidation - which the government insisted was not caused by the crisis but by bad management - would result in big losses for creditors and cost many of the 2,000 employees their jobs.

DSB's failure is the first suffered by a bank in the Netherlands since several major banks were given bailouts or taken over by the government at the peak of the financial crisis last year.

The Netherlands said it sold the 2.75% debt at an average yield of 2.69%. The Dutch government planned to sell between 1.5 billion Euros and 2.5 billion Euros of the securities.

ASML Holding NV, Europe's largest maker of semiconductor equipment, reported its first profit in four quarters and joined Intel Corp. in signaling a revival of demand in the chip industry.

Net income fell to 19.7 million Euros ($29.3 million), or 5 cents a share, in the third quarter, from 73.3 million Euros, or 17 cents, a year earlier, Veldhoven, Netherlands-based ASML said in a statement Friday. That beat the 10.6 million-Euro average of seven analysts' estimates.

ASML, the maker of machines that fabricate chips for Apple Inc.'s iPods and Nokia Oyj's mobile phones, expects "significant" sales growth in the first half of 2010 as customers resume investments. Intel, the world's biggest chipmaker, forecast sales and profitability that topped estimates Thursday, setting the stage for a broader recovery in technology earnings.

ASML's fourth-quarter revenue will be about 550 million Euros, the company said Friday. ASML's third-quarter sales fell 20% to 555.3 million Euros, beating the 528.9 million- Euro average estimate of 15 analysts. Net sales in both the third and fourth quarters would exceed 500 million Euros, the company said last month.

In the third quarter, ASML received bookings for 35 machines with a value of 777 million Euros, beating Beijsens' 620 million-Euro estimate. Order value this quarter will at least match that of the preceding three months as chipmakers invest in equipment that allows them to make smaller chips for personal computers and mobile phones and reduce manufacturing costs, ASML said Friday.

Dutch biotechnology firm Pharming reported a wider than forecast loss in the third quarter on high costs for getting approval for its flagship drug Rhucin.

The net loss was 8 million Euros, compared with a loss of 7.5 million Euros a year earlier and an average analyst forecast for 6.6 million.

Pharming's cash position at the end of September was 10.6 million Euros, after an exchange programme for its 2007 convertible bonds aimed at improving its financial profile.

At the end of September, Pharming said the 70 million Euros in 2007 convertibles had been reduced 10.9 million Euros.

Pharming, which produces therapeutic proteins in milk of genetically modified animals, lodged a request for marketing approval of Rhucin with the EMEA at the start of September.

Pharming developed Rhucin to treat hereditary angioedema, characterised by acute attacks of painful swelling of the skin, intestine, mouth and throat.

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV agreed to sell beer brands in nine eastern European countries to CVC Capital Partners Ltd. for as much as $3 billion, reducing debt with its second asset sale to a buyout firm in a month.

The world's biggest brewer said it will get about 1.1 billion Euros ($1.6 billion) in cash from CVC, which will also give AB InBev a six-year interest-bearing note worth about 300 million Euros as a deferred payment obligation. Leuven, Belgium- based AB InBev will receive as much as $800 million in further compensation, depending on CVC's return on investment.

CVC gets assets including the Czech Republic's Staropramen in the biggest leveraged buyout in continental Europe since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy last year. AB InBev has been repaying debt since it was created by the former InBev NV's $52 billion purchase of Anheuser-Busch Cos. last year, which united brands from Budweiser to Stella Artois.

Thursday, the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the retail sales decreased 7.7% year-on-year in August, compared to the 3.5% fall in July, revised from 3.6% decline reported initially. Economists expected a decrease of 4%.

The retail sales volume dropped 7.1% on an annual basis in August, while prices fell 0.7%.

For the January to August period, retail sales slipped 5% compared to the same period of the previous year.

AUSTRIA

Vienna's ATX closed the trading session and trading week Friday at 2,725.23, a drop for the day of 0.47%.

Smelly bankers? UniCredit Bank Austria AG has bought 10.72% of ordinary shares of OJSC Concern "KALINA" (Ekaterinburg). The details of the deal and the price of the stock have not been made public while experts estimate the deal to be worth 17.5 million Dollars according to the company's capitalization of 163 million Dollars.

The Russian office of the bank stated that UniCredit Bank Austria AG is a nominee shareholder. The bank has not revealed who the beneficiary is. Analysts point out two probable causes for this purchase. Kalina's shares are considered to be undervalued in the market, after a serious fall in 2008 their price has tripled this year and keeps on rising. It can not be ruled out that this may be done to get a credit facility against the shares.

Thursday, the Statistics Austria reported that consumer prices rose 0.1% on a yearly basis in September, slower than a 0.3% rise the previous month.On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.1% in September.

The slower pace of annual growth in prices was mainly due to slower rises in prices of clothing and footwear, utilities, household equipment, miscellaneous goods and services among others. At the same time, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport and communication as also education declined.

Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices were flat on a yearly basis in September, after a 0.2% rise the previous month. On a monthly basis, the HICP was up 0.2%.

Vienna Airport shares eased 0.4% Thursday after reporting mixed traffic results in Sep-2009. The airport's passenger traffic and aircraft movement declines remained stagnant at -6.6% and -9.3%, respectively, while the cargo traffic decline deteriorated from -4.0% in Aug-2009 to -9.7% in Sep-2009:

Passenger numbers: 1.8 million, -6.8% year-on-year

Cargo volume: 20,404 tonnes, -4.0% year-on-year

Aircraft movements: 21,102, -9.8% year-on-year

GLV Inc announced this week that the Austrian Takeover Commission has approved GLV's voluntary takeover bid, effective immediately, to purchase up to 100% of the shares of Christ Water Technology AG.

Holders of CWT shares are being offered a cash consideration of (Euro)3.35 per CWT share representing a total equity purchase price of approximately $105 M (using a 1.60 Canadian Dollar/Euro exchange rate). GLV's Offer to CWT shareholders has received the support of CWT's largest shareholder, Mr. Andreas Weissenbacher, who holds approximately 27% of the shares of CWT principally through WAB Privatstiftung which signed a binding commitment to irrevocably tender its shares into GLV's takeover bid.

The completion of the Offer is subject to having a minimum of 90% of CWT's shares tendered into the Offer, and to certain other conditions. GLV aims to close the transaction in November or December 2009.

GLV is a leading global provider of technological solutions used in water treatment, recycling and purification, as well as in pulp and paper production.

SWITZERLAND

Zurich's SMI ended the week on 6,345.26; a decline Friday of 0.59%.

Swiss Life Holding AG climbed 4.5% to 140.2 Francs after Citigroup Inc. raised its recommendation for Switzerland's biggest life insurer to "buy" from "hold." The analysts increased their price estimate on the shares by 33% to 160 Francs.

Petroplus Holdings AG, the largest refiner in Europe, surged 4.6% to 27.94 Swiss Francs.

Economic expectations for Switzerland continued to improve in October 2009. The relevant ZEW-CS Indicator of Economic Sentiment increased by 7.0 points month-on-month, reaching the 65.0 mark. Accordingly, a majority of 67.5% of the financial market experts surveyed predict that the economic momentum will improve over the next six months. Only 2.5% expect the economy to deteriorate. This is the result of the current Financial Market Test Switzerland, carried out monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS).

The assessment of the current economic situation also improved by 7.0 points - albeit still hovering at a low level - and the corresponding balance now stands at minus 55.0 points. The overriding majority of 87.5% of survey participants still expect short-term interest rates to hold steady. Inflation expectations edged up just slightly in October, with a 35.9% share of the financial market experts anticipating higher prices on a six-month horizon. 59% of the respondents forecast no change in terms of inflation.

The focal point of this month's "special question" is directed on the G-20 summit meeting in Pittsburgh. Regarding the results of the summit meeting, 14.3% of the respondents acknowledged that their expectations had been fulfilled, while 54.8% expressed a "neutral" view and a total of 30.9% were disappointed. Particular interest was directed at targeted reforms of financial institutions as well as financial market regulations. A respective share of 29.6% of respondents acknowledged that significant results were realised in these two areas.

The ZEW has conducted a similar monthly survey for Germany since 1991. The aim of the Swiss survey is to develop indicators both for Switzerland's general economic climate as well as for the Swiss services sector.

Specifically, survey participants are asked to give their medium-term expectations for important international financial markets as regards the development of the economy, the inflation rate, short- and longer-term interest rates, equity prices and exchange rates. In addition, the financial experts are also asked to assess the earnings situation of companies in the following Swiss services sectors: banks, insurance, consumer/retail, telecoms and services as a whole.

The Swiss economy has now bottomed out and should return to a path of growth in the fourth quarter, the Quarterly Business Cycle Indicator survey from the Swiss bank UBS said Thursday. The indicator signaled renewed expansion.

The business cycle indicator for the fourth quarter, based on a September survey of 350 Swiss companies, rose to 0.2%. "It indicates that there will be a slight upturn in growth compared with a year ago, suggesting the Swiss economy is probably out of recession," the bank said in a statement. Economists at the UBS are forecasting a growth rate of 7.1% for the next year.

"Swiss firms are beginning to feel more confident about the future, reflecting expectations that the economy should see mild growth in the fourth quarter of this year," the UBS said. "Although the expansion will be modest, the economy appears to be stabilizing as the recession fades."

The latest survey found that there was less pressure on both domestic and international new orders in the third quarter, as well as on output, revenues and earnings. Firms expect the improving trend to continue. However, the employment situation is still lagging behind the upturn in the economy, UBS economists noted. The staff reduction trend is expected to persist for the foreseeable future.

Export- oriented sectors including machinery, electrical engineering and metal industries rose in the third quarter, and are expected to improve over the fourth quarter. The bank said while the export oriented and financial services sector seemed to have overcome the negative shocks for now, the impact on the rest of the economy is yet to come.

The survey showed that the slump in the watch making industry would continue in the fourth quarter, with slower pace of declines in new orders and slight improvement in sales and earnings. "There are no signs that the watchmaking industry has turned the corner," they said.

The UBS economists expect the jobless rate to come in higher next year compared to the level this year. Moreover, they forecast the sentiment among consumers to be subdued, the construction sector to see a decline. "Thus, next year for many may feel worse than the growth outlook would suggest, as the forecast is driven by the basis effect."

Switzerland's jobless rate in September rose to 3.9% from August's 3.8%, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs reported Wednesday. The rate matched economists' expectations.

The number of unemployed people totaled 154,409 at the end of September, up 3,578 from the previous month. Compared to the corresponding period of last year, unemployment increased 58,429.

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate was 4.1% in September, in line with expectations. In August, the unemployment rate was 4%.

SWEDEN

The OMX 30 in Stockholm rounded out the week at 927.76, a small positive gain of 0.08% for the day Friday - but better than most Regional bourses.

Swedish Match AB, Europe's largest maker of smokeless tobacco products, jumped 3.8% to 151.50 kronor on speculation Philip Morris International Inc. will make a takeover bid for the company.

Ericsson AB rose 2% to 72.60 kronor after Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications Ltd. reported third-quarter net loss of 164 million Euros ($245 million), less than analysts anticipated.

Inflation expectations among key financial and business groups in Sweden have risen in recent months but money market players forecast slightly slower rate hikes than previously, a central bank poll showed on Wednesday.

The TNS Prospera survey of employee and employer organisations, purchasing managers and money market players showed headline inflation was seen at 0.8% in 12 months' time and 1.6% in two years.

The outcome was above a June poll which showed expectations for consumer prices to be up 0.7% in a year and up 1.4% in two years.

The central bank targets a range for CPI around the two% level.

Data this week showed Sweden's consumer prices index fell 1.6% year-on-year in September, the steepest annual fall for a single month since records began in 1954.

Sweden's central bank has forecast it will keep its key repo rate hike at a record low of 0.25% over the coming year until a recovery takes firm hold.

Money market players saw the Riksbank raising rates slightly more slowly than in a survey conducted in September. They saw the repo rate at 1.0% in 12 months, compared with 1.1% previously, and at 2.4% in two years' time.

A Reuters survey showed last week expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates already in April or July as the bank takes stock of signs of economic recovery and rising asset prices.

The Riksbank will make its next rate announcement on Oct. 22.

NORWAY

Oslo's OBX finished the day Friday on 309.89, a drop of 0.03% for the session.

The Norwegian Kroner reached a fresh 1-year high on Thursday after the government this week announced plans to spend more oil revenues in 2010 than in 2009, shortly before the central bank is expected to start a new tightening cycle.

Some economists said they expected the Kroner to weaken somewhat in the short term due to profit taking and potential dampened interest rate expectations, but that it would generally stay strong due to the relatively strong economy.

The Kroner -- which has strengthened about 19% since December -- reached an new year-high at 8.2440 to the Euro in early trade , but weakened later in the day, trading at 8.2813 by 1037 GMT and at 5.5610 against the Dollar .

Norway's centre-left coalition government presented on Monday a budget that aims to boost spending of oil cash from 2009 when it raised spending amid the global financial crisis.

Outlook for higher rates have contributed to the general strengthening of the Kroner since the summer, economists said.

Norges Bank -- which has slashed rates from 5.75% from October last year -- has said it will soon start to raise rates from a record-low 1.25%, and most economists expect it to do so to 1.50% on Oct. 28 meeting.

The central bank will also present this year's last Monetary Policy Report at this meeting -- where it gives a trajectory for where rates are heading.

A strong Kroner will make it tougher to raise rates, as it will dampen inflation -- closely tracked when setting rates. The bank targets core inflation at 2.5% in the medium term.

Norway's plan to spend a record amount of its oil wealth to support the economy even after it emerged from recession will pave the way for bigger central bank interest rate increases starting this month, economists said.

The world's fifth-largest oil exporter expects to use a record 148.5 billion Kroner ($26.4 billion) of its $450 billion oil fund to generate an extra 0.5 percentage point of economic growth next year, the Finance Ministry said Thursday. That's a 10.9% increase in spending from the oil fund on 2009.

Norges Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem said last month the bank had considered raising the benchmark rate at the Sept. 23 meeting from a record-low 1.25% after the economy looked poised to deliver a stronger recovery than policy makers had expected. Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, whose Labour Party was re-elected last month, has remained committed to stimulating the economy even after recovery took hold. This adds to the need for tighter monetary policy, economists said.

Mainland gross domestic product grew 0.3% in the second quarter, ending six months of recession. The country's oil wealth has shielded it from the worst of the economic crisis, and Norway's unemployment rate has remained the lowest in Europe throughout the global decline. The jobless rate will average 3.2% this year and 3.7% in 2010, the ministry estimates.

Public spending will grow 2.1% in 2010, following a 5.6% rise this year and 3.8% growth in 2008, according to the government. "Fiscal policy in Norway is very expansionary compared to the policies of most of our trading partner," the Finance Ministry said. Gjedrem in a Sept. 30 speech characterized the central bank's policy rate as "extraordinarily low."

Interest rate cuts were quick to feed through to the economy, with about 90% of mortgage holders using floating rates, according to the Finance Ministry. Gjedrem said in a Sept. 30 speech that the bank "must take account of developments in equity prices and property prices when projecting inflation and output."

House prices now match their peak from the summer of 2007, not adjusting for the impact of inflation, the Finance Ministry estimates. Prices rose 1.8% in the third quarter from the previous period, after gaining 5.3% in the previous three months, Norway's statistics office said Friday.

The government raised its outlook for the economy and now expects non-oil output to grow 2.1% next year. That compares with a May 15 forecast for 0.75% growth.

Norway, which is also the world's second-largest natural gas exporter, puts most of its revenue from oil and gas in a pension fund that invests abroad to avoid stoking inflation in the domestic economy. The Government Pension Fund - Global is Europe's largest equity investor.

Expenditure guidelines stipulate that the government should limit spending to the expected return of the fund, which is estimated at 4%. In 2010 the government will exceed the spending limit by 44.6 billion Kroner, overspending for a second consecutive year.

Stoltenberg's coalition government has pledged to keep high employment levels and expand the welfare system while maintaining "responsible economic steering." The government has also said it will keep taxes and duties unchanged.

Oil income will fall 16% this year to 244.8 billion Kroner, the Finance Ministry estimates. It sees the price of crude rising to 425 Kroner a barrel next year from 375 Kroner this year but remaining below last year's price of 536 Kroner.

FINLAND

The OMX in Helsinki closed out the week on 6,236.34, a decline of 0.13%.

Friday, the Statistics Finland announced that the wages and salaries sum of the whole economy dropped 3.5% year-on-year in August, in contrast to the 0.9% growth in the previous month.

For the June to August period, wages and salaries sum decreased 0.8% on an annual basis, compared to the 6.3% increase recorded a year ago.

During the period, wages and salaries sums in manufacturing dipped 8.6%, while wages and salaries sum for construction slipped 4%. The decline was also recorded in the wages and salaries sums in trade and other services.

Nokia, the world's largest maker of mobile phones, said Chief Financial Officer Rick Simonson will become head of its low-end mobile-phone unit in the devices division.

Within the division, Nokia created two new units from Oct. 1, with one called Mobile Phones and one called Smartphones, the Espoo, Finland-based company said in a statement Friday. Simonson, who has been CFO since 2004, will also head "strategic sourcing" for the entire devices division.

Chief Executive Officer Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo and his predecessor, Jorma Ollila, had been CFO and senior vice president for finance respectively and had headed the entire mobile-phones division before taking the top job. Thursday, Nokia posted its first loss since it began reporting quarterly in 1996. It forecast an unchanged market share of 38% for handsets in the fourth quarter and said component shortages had hindered some shipments.

"It's great to have Rick move to such an important operational role," Kallasvuo said in the statement. "His deep knowledge of the business and its financials will be valuable for the significant part mobile phones plays in Nokia's business."

The third-quarter net loss was 559 million Euros ($834 million) as Nokia wrote down the value of its Nokia Siemens Networks joint venture with Siemens AG. Its share of the smart- phone market declined to 35% from 41% in the previous quarter as consumers shunned the Nokia N97 touchscreen phone in favor of Apple Inc.'s iPhone.

The mobile-phone unit will include low-end and midrange devices accounting for more than half of Nokia's handset sales. Simonson's appointment is effective Nov. 1, Nokia said. Jo Harlow was appointed to oversee smart-phones a few weeks ago, said Doug Dawson, a Nokia spokesman.

Timo Ihamuotila, who joined Nokia in 1993 and currently heads global sales, will become CFO, Nokia said.

Finland has been ranked by a new EU Commission study as having among the best prospects in Europe for long-term economic success. Despite a relatively faster aging of the population, the new report sees Finland's public sector economy as one of the most sustainable within the EU.

The Commission's 2009 Sustainability Report is at odds with evaluations by Finland's own Finance Ministry. Experts there have repeatedly expressed concern that the upward shift in the median age of the population poses a serious future threat to the economy.

The European Commission study says some countries are better prepared than others to meet their future pension and healthcare needs. This report lists Finland along with Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia and Sweden as one of the few countries that have already made the necessary budgetary adjustments to keep their economies sustainable as the population ages.

Finland's position, according to the Commission has been eased especially by a pension system that has funds which can act as a buffer should state finances weaken.

DENMARK

In Copenhagen, the OMX finished trading Friday to close at 339.42, down 0.26% on the day.

Sustainable World Capital ranks the top 10 cleantech countries. Not surprisingly, Denmark is #1 with Germany & Sweden close behind.

Home to the soon-to-be Copenhagen Agreement, Denmark is striving for 100% renewables. The country was hit hard by the first oil embargo and in response the nation emerged to became the leader of both wind and energy efficiency technologies.

Enormously high car taxes have also led to the creation of the most bike-friendly city in the world. The country has also actively promoted public-private partnerships through the Climate Consortium Denmark, which produced a sophisticated website called EnergyMap.dk that tracks the wide array of cleantech companies residing in Europe.

Monday, the Statistics Denmark announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year in September, slower than the 1.1% growth in the previous month.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices dropped 1.4% on an annual basis in September, while clothing and footwear prices climbed 1.3%. At the same time, transport charges were down 2.9%.
 
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in August.

Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP rose 0.5% in September, slowing from 0.7% increase in the previous month. Month-on-month, the HICP was up 0.2%.

SPAIN

Madrid's IBEX finished the week on 11,676.40, sharp decreases of 1.46% for the session.

Repsol YPF SA, Spain's biggest oil company, said tests on a natural gas well offshore Venezuela drilled with Eni Spa revealed the presence of crude oil, which the government said may help speed the field's development.

The Cardon IV field ranks as Venezuela's largest gas discovery and one of the world's five biggest finds in 2009, the Madrid-based company said late Thursday in a statement. The well, called Perla 1X, produced 620 barrels a day of oil, "limited by the specifications of the installation," the company said.

The 33 square-kilometer (13 square-mile) field contains the natural-gas equivalent of between 1 billion and 1.4 billion barrels of oil, Repsol said. That is about 5.5 to 7.7 trillion cubic feet of gas, more than the total reserves of neighboring Colombia, which now exports the fuel to Venezuela.

The presence of oil will ease financing for field development, Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said on state television. The field will produce very light "crude condensate," with a gravity of 50, he said. Light oil, with a higher gravity, sells for more than heavy oil. Much of Venezuela's output has a gravity of 16.

Repsol wants to boost oil and gas production through new discoveries off the coasts of Brazil and Venezuela after four years of declining output, while Venezuela aims to increase natural gas output to overcome a deficit. It currently imports about 250 million cubic feet a day from Colombia.

Development of the field, the company's largest discovery, will take four or five years, Repsol Chief Executive Officer Antonio Brufau said in an interview Sept. 14.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez first announced the discovery last month, after conversing with Brufau. At the time Chavez said the field may contain 8 trillion cubic feet of gas, while Repsol said it was still under evaluation.

Petroleos de Venezuela SA, also known as PDVSA, will get a 35% stake in the project, with Repsol and Eni splitting the remainder, Repsol said Thursday. "The results of the well exceeded pre-drill expectations," Eni said in an e-mailed statement Friday.

Venezuela has 174.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, the largest in South America. The country had 2.6% of the world's proved natural-gas reserves in 2008, or the ninth-largest in the world, according to BP Plc.

The well was drilled by a jackup oil rig called the Ensco 68. Venezuela nationalized a similar rig, the Ensco 69, when Ensco International Inc. halted work amid a payment dispute.

Spain's industrial turnover dropped 18.8% on a yearly basis in August, but slower than a 24.9% fall in the previous month, the National Statistics Institute said Friday. The turnover has been falling in double digits continuously since October last year. In the first eight months of the year, turnover slipped 26.5% compared to last year.

At the same time, industrial new orders declined 18.4% year-on-year in August, slower than a 26.1% drop in July. New orders have also been declining in double digits since October last year. In the January to August period, new orders were down 27.9% compared to the same period last year.

PORTUGAL

Lisbon's PSI Generali rounded out the day and the week Friday at 2,984.76, a drop of 0.39% for the final session of the week.

The number of tourists who stayed in Portuguese hotels edged up in August for the first time in a year, but hotel revenues fell again as they relied on promotional price cuts to attract visitors during the recession.

National Statistics Institute data on Wednesday showed that revenues dropped 6% from a year earlier to 259 million Euros ($386 million), but showing a continuing year-to-date slowdown of the fall in revenue caused by the global crisis.

In the January-August period, revenues fell 10.5% to 1.23 billion Euros.

Tourism-linked revenues, including hotels, account for over 10% of the Iberian country's economy. These have been hard-hit by the global economic crisis after last year's record tourist arrivals and revenues.

The number of foreign tourists in August still fell 4% to 847,000, but showed an improvement after sliding 6.6% and 9% in the previous two months.

The total number of hotel guests edged up 0.4% to 1.69 million in August as the number of Portuguese travellers rose over 5%.

Excluding last April, when the overall number was boosted by Easter holidays, which in 2008 were in March, there has not been an increase in the number of hotel guests since August 2008.

In the first eight months of this year, the number of guests was still about 4% lower than a year ago, totalling 8.96 million people.

Tuesday, the Statistics Portugal said the consumer price index or CPI fell 1.6% year-on-year in September compared to the 1.3% drop in the preceding month. This was the seventh consecutive month of decline in consumer prices.

In September, the core CPI, which excludes energy components and fresh unprocessed food products declined 0.2% annually, in contrast to the 0.2% rise in the previous month.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices recorded the largest decline, down 5.9% on an annual basis in September. At the same time, transport charges and clothing and footwear prices decreased by 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively.
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices grew 0.2% in September, compared to the 0.3% decrease in August.

Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP dropped 1.8% year-on-year in September compared to the 1.2% fall in the preceding month. Month-on-month, the HICP decreased 0.1%, in contrast to the 0.5% rise in August.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index fell 187.42, or 0.8%, to 24,152.34, paring its weekly gain to 1.6%.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy's third-biggest bank has received "several" offers for the 135 branches it's selling as part of an asset-disposal plan, General Manager Antonio Vigni told reporters in Rome Friday. Monte Paschi gained for a third day, adding 0.7 cents, or 0.5%, to 1.47 Euros.

Kerself increased 27 cents, or 2.9%, to 9.55 Euros. Italy's biggest maker of photovoltaic cells signed a letter of intent with investors to form the largest solar energy producer in Italy, according to a statement distributed through the Italian exchange. The agreement will add 300 million Euros to 2010 revenue, the company said.

Saras jumped 15.75 cents, or 6.4%, to 2.63 Euros. The owner of the Mediterranean region's biggest refinery rose as crude oil was little changed after rising to a one-year high above $78 a barrel, helped by a larger drop in US gasoline stockpiles than analysts had forecast.

Seat Pagine Gialle; the publisher of phone directories denied a newspaper report that its main investors are discussing the sale of their stakes in the company to a group led by businessmen Virgilio Degiovanni and Fabio Arpe. Degiovanni and Arpe may team up with a Libyan partner and three or four other investors to make a bid for Seat, MF reported, without saying where it got the information. Pagine Gialle rose 1.04 cents, or 4.6%, to 23.91 cents.

GREECE

Greece's ASE Index plummeted 2.2% as the Finance Ministry said it's considering imposing a one-off tax on profits from banks and other companies to reduce the budget deficit; the index closed the session at 2,830.01.

National Bank of Greece, the country's biggest lender, sank 3.6% to 26.80 Euros as Morgan Stanley also downgraded the shares to "equal weight" from "overweight." Alpha Bank SA, the third-biggest, dropped 6.4% to 13.10 Euros.

Greece's unemployment rate rose to 9.6% in July from 8.6% in June as weak construction and tourism led to job shedding, the country's statistics service (NSS) said on Wednesday.

Year-on-year, Greece's jobless rate jumped by 2.6 percentage points from 7.0% in July last year. The rate is not adjusted for seasonal factors.

After a decade of booming economic growth and three years of falling unemployment, Greece's economy is on the verge of recession with tourism and construction feeling the slump.

About 19,000 jobs in the tourism sector were lost in the first half after a 9.6% drop in visitor numbers, the tourism industry association SETE said in July.

Joblessness is higher in the younger age groups, with the unemployment rate in the 15-24 age group rising to 23.9 from 20.9% in the same month last year.

Unemployment was also affecting women more than men with the jobless rate at 13.8% versus 6.6% for the male population. 
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsG4S was among the top performers on Friday even as the FTSE 100 drifted lower.

National Express plunges as bid dropped - Oct-16Rumours of new Qatari move for Sainsbury - Oct-15Xstrata still keen on deal with Anglo - Oct-15Q&A: Currency minefield - Oct-14The security contractor climbed to a record high, up 3% to 570p amid talk of stake building. More than three times the average daily volume changed hands, with one specialist institutional broker said to be buying aggressively.

An "outperform" recommendation from Cazenove also helped the positive trend in G4S shares.

The broker addressed investor concerns about falling cash conversion, rising debt and a sizeable pension liability. All three look set to improve next year, and none represents an impediment to investing, Cazenove concluded.

The FTSE 100 drifted lower for a second day, with weak US earnings news once again the catalyst.

The index closed down 32.71 points, or 0.6%, at 5,190.24, trimming its gain for the week to 0.6%.

J Sainsbury was 4% weaker at 328¾p as takeover theories dissipated. The stock had spiked as much as 20% on Thursday on talk that Qatar's sovereign wealth fund was looking to bid - a theory analysts said looked doubtful.

Merrill Lynch told clients: "In order to seal the approval of management, we expect that any bid on the business would need to be in excess of 500p per share, but, given that it would likely necessitate the business taking on a substantial amount of debt or selling off its property, it is likely to meet resistance still from the group's pension trustees."

Marks and Spencer fell for a third day following its investor presentation, which led Goldman Sachs to cut the stock off its conviction list. The shares were 1.9% lower at 243½p.

"Despite highlighting significant opportunities...management was less clear on the timing of the delivery of many of its initiatives," said the broker. "We now believe that it is unlikely that we will have a clearer strategy for the delivery of net benefits to the business until the appointment of a new CEO."

Among the gainers, Lloyds Banking Group rose 1.9% to 93¼p amid talk it may be ready to launch a fundraising as early as next week.

Deutsche Bank added Lloyds to its "buy" list in anticipation of a £14.5bn rights issue. With the shares down 15% from their peak in spite of an improving economy, it was worth looking beyond short-term volatility to the "post-crisis" earnings potential, it said.

Morgan Stanley was pushing Experian, up 3% to 570p, ahead of its interim results next month. Sales and margins have room to rise in the third quarter, which could pave the way for a cash return at the year end, it said.

Cadbury edged up 0.1% to 787p on hopes of a sweetened bid from Kraft, which was reportedly looking to sell its Maxwell House division. A Panmure Gordon report urging Unilever to counterbid also stirred interest in Cadbury.

National Express was the day's sharpest mid-cap faller, with the shares tumbling 23.1% to 362p on expectations of an imminent rights issue after the Cosmen family's bid consortium abandoned its takeover offer. Stagecoach, which had a side deal to buy National Express's UK bus and rail operations from the consortium, lost 4.5% to 156¾p.

Salamander Energy jumped 10.8% to 277½p, helped by renewed speculation about stake building and potential bid interest from an Indonesian investor. People familiar with the group played down gossip, however, saying the investor had been sitting on a stake of more than 10% since 3i sold out earlier this year.

Brit Insurance edged higher by 0.7% to 211¾p in spite of a trade press report that its two most senior underwriters from its professional indemnity division had quit.

Sound Oil could be in focus next week. Shortly after the market closed the exploration company, which is focused on Indonesia, said it had noted the recent movements in its share price and heavy trading volumes and put it down to stakebuilding by Lynchwood Nominees. Traders believe Lynchwood, which now controls a 22.6% stake in the company, is connected to entreprenEur Frank Timis. Shares in Sound Oil closed unchanged at 2.85p.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum firmed 0.4% to 108½p amid talk it would announce another drilling update from its Shaikan block in Kurdistan next week that could trigger another reserve estimate upgrade.

Solo Oil , which is chaired by David Lenigas, rose 15.4% to 0.75p on talk it was close to announcing its first deal.

There was further misery for shareholders in money payments group Earthport as it fell a further 12.7% to 31p, but peer Monitise , added 3.6% to 14¼p after registering the millionth customer for its mobile banking service - two months ahead of schedule.

Staffing specialist Servoca added 25.8% to 19½p on news that results would be comfortably ahead of market expectations.

Energybuild , the Welsh coal mining group, rose 11.3% to 19¾p after impressive full year results. "Our sentiment towards domestic UK producers is improving as we are expecting significant increases in imported thermal coal prices into 2010," said stockbroker Arbuthnot.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average posted a modest gain Friday as brisk US tech company earnings from International Business Machines (IBM) and Google helped their Japanese counterparts offset more weakness in banks and financials.

The Japanese market is likely to continue to absorb trading cues from US corporate earnings for the time being, say analysts, as Yahoo, Caterpillar, and Microsoft are scheduled to announce their quarterly earnings next week.

Caterpillar, a global cyclical stock, warrants keen attention, according to Tsuyoshi Kawata, senior strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities. The US firm's results could affect enthusiasm for such key exporters as construction machinery maker Komatsu, he said.

The Nikkei 225 rose 18.91 points, or 0.2%, to 10,257.56, gaining for the seventh time in eight sessions. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues fell 3.16 points, or 0.4%, to 900.95. Twenty of 33 subindexes closed in negative territory as heavily weighted financial shares took a toll.

For the week the Nikkei added 2.4%, and is now up 16% year-to-date. Kawata said the Nikkei may trade between 10,000 and 10,500 next week.

Tech shares outperformed the market, principally on rosy earnings reports from IBM and Google. Panasonic added 1.8% to Y1,290 and Fujitsu rose 1.7% to Y604. Traders also credited a suddenly weaker Yen as helping sentiment.

Sony gained 1.9% to Y2,650 after Nikko Citigroup raised its stock rating to Buy from Hold, citing restructuring efforts in its TV business and an expected recovery to profitability for its PlayStation 3 unit.

Meanwhile, Japan Airlines, or JAL, plunged 11% for the second straight session, closing at Y101 after hitting a fresh lifetime low of Y100, on continued worries over its restructuring plan. Trading volume was almost six times normal.

Ratings agency Moody's also announced a downgrade for JAL's long-term debt rating, to B1 from Ba3.

JAL's plight affected banks, which weakened again.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 3.1% to Y470 and Mizuho Financial Group dropped 1.1% to Y172. As a group, banks lost 1.3%.

December Nikkei 225 futures ended up 30 points, or 0.3%, at 10,270 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

SOUTH KOREA

Automakers and electronics exporters, including Hyundai Motor and LG Display, pushed Seoul shares lower on Friday on concerns that the strengthening Won would undermine their overseas sales.

The Bank of Korea head's comments last night that interest rate hikes, once they started, would probably be in bigger steps than usual fanned reinforced the view that the local currency would continue its advance.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index shed 1.12% to close at 1,640.36 points.

On the week, the benchmark index barely moved, ahead of earnings from Hyundai Motor next Thursday and memory chipmaker Hynix Semiconductor next Friday.

LG Display, the world's No. 2 liquid crystal display panel maker, fell 4.2% to 31,850 Won, pricing in analysts' prospects of weaker earnings through early 2010, despite posting a record profit on Thursday.

The Won slipped off its near 13-month high against the Dollar hit on Thursday.

Hyundai Motor, the country's top automaker, sank 4.9% and its key parts supplier Hyundai Mobis declined 5.0%.

Analysts said third-quarter results might be the peak of this year for South Korean companies, while stronger economic indicators raised hopes for a rebound in local stock markets.

The forthcoming domestic listings of spirit maker Jinro Ltd on Monday and the construction arm of POSCO later this month fuelled worries about supply increases, with local fund houses remaining sellers under redemption calls.

Non-life insurers were a bright spot on expectations for rapid interest rate hikes which would improve their investment returns.

Sector leader Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance rose 3.9%.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong stocks finished 0.31% lower on Friday, ending a three-day advance as profit-takers dug deeper into previous gains made on higher crude prices and a weaker US Dollar.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index dropped 69.18 points to 21,929.90, off the previous day's 14-month closing high.

The China Enterprises Index of top locally listed mainland Chinese stocks eased 0.84% to 12,751.46.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world's No. 1 bank by market value, slid 1.6%. Li & Fung Ltd., whose 53% rally made it the best performer on the Hang Seng Index in the past three months, dropped 3.2%. China Resources Enterprise Ltd., a state-owned retailer, jumped 3.6% after partner Esprit Holdings Ltd. said it will soon start discussing a buyout of their joint venture.

ICBC slid 1.6% to HK$6.15. China Construction Bank Corp., the nation's second-biggest bank by market value, fell 1.2% to HK$6.74. Bank of China Ltd., the No. 3, dropped 1.8% to HK$4.42.

The above banks, as well as Agricultural Bank of China Co. and Bank of Communications Ltd. must increase write-offs against bad loans and maintain their capital adequacy after the China Banking Regulatory Commission said the economic situation remains "grim."

China Resources added 3.6% to HK$25.85, the sharpest gain on the Hang Seng Index. Esprit, the biggest Hong Kong-traded clothier, advanced 1% to HK$55.75.

Esprit will seek control of its China venture to prepare for growth next year, Chairman Heinz Krogner said Thursday. Esprit's venture with China Resources has more than 1,100 self- operated and franchised stores in China, generating HK$2.7 billion in annual sales. China Resources said Sept. 3 it may sell its 51% stake in the venture as it seeks to focus on its retail, food and beverage businesses.

Huadian Power International Corp., a unit of China's fourth-largest power producer, added 1.2% to HK$2.48. Huadian will post a net profit for the first nine months, compared with a net loss reported a year earlier, the company said in a statement to Shanghai's stock exchange, without giving a figure for what profit may be.

CHINA

China shares ended lower Friday due to declines in banks on renewed concerns about slowing loan growth and potentially huge credit risks related to the country's massive lending earlier this year.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended down 0.1%, or 3.16 points, at 2976.63. The index is up 2.2% on the week.

The Shenzhen Composite Index gained 0.3% to 1028.42 as real-estate companies rose after China issued stronger-than-expected property investment growth figures for last month.

Analysts said they expect China shares to consolidate next week as the imminent launch of the country's long-awaited Nasdaq-style board may continue to divert cash.

China's banking regulator said Friday it held a meeting with the five biggest state-run lenders to urge them to maintain a reasonable pace of lending and take measures to better control credit risks. The regulator also said banks should ensure their capital adequacy ratios don't deteriorate.

Concerns that credit may dry up after Chinese banks lent a record CNY7.4 trillion in the first half have weighed on the stock market since July. China's banks have slowed their pace of lending, issuing a total of CNY1.3 trillion in the third quarter, central bank data showed.

Despite the slowdown, new RMB loans this year are set to double the total for all of last year of CNY4.9 trillion, raising concerns Chinese lenders risk returning to the bad-loan levels that crippled them six years ago.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China fell 1.2% to CNY4.95, Bank of China dropped 1.2% to CNY3.99 and China Construction Bank fell 1.2% to CNY5.83.

But China Merchants Bank bucked the trend, rising 1.1% to CNY15.98, after the medium-sized lender was quoted by state media as saying it doesn't plan to raise more funds in the next three years after completing a planned rights issue of up to CNY22 billion.

Analysts also attributed the correction in the benchmark Shanghai index to the imminent launch of China's Growth Enterprise Market and a glut of new share offerings this week.

China's GEM board is widely expected to be launched before the end of this month. A total of 19 companies opened their initial public offering books for investors this week. These IPOs are expected to attract nearly CNY1.5 trillion of subscription funds, analysts said.

Property developers rose after China reported stronger-than-expected property investment growth of 37% for last month.

China Vanke gained 0.7% to CNY11.55 and China Merchants Property rose 0.3% to CNY27.14.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stocks inched up 0.06% on Friday to a 16-month closing high, with gains in financial shares offset by concerns over a weaker fourth quarter for LCD makers such as AU Optronics.

The main TAIEX share index edged up 4.7 points to 7,715.10, the highest close since June 26, 2008, finishing this week with a 1.9% gain.

The banking and insurance sub-index outperformed the broader market, rising 1.34%, with Cathay Financial up more than 2%.

Turnover was thin at T$118 billion ($3.7 billion), compared with Thursday's T$165 billion and a daily average of T$130 billion this week.

LCD makers AU Optronics and Chi Mei fell 2.41% and 0.58%, respectively, after their larger Korean peer LG Display said on Thursday that average LCD panel prices would decline, while shipments were expected to rise by less than 10%.

Shares of TSMC, the world's largest contract chip maker, fell 2.98%. A local newspaper reported that its chairman, Morris Chang, is likely to announce a resumption of salary rises for employees following the sector's recovery.

But Mediatek, the most-actively traded stock by turnover, climbed almost 3% after Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight rating on Mediatek shares on fair valuation and a mild decline in the fourth quarter.

Smartphone maker HTC Corp advanced 2.31%. Its larger rival, Nokia, the world's top cellphone maker, reported its worst quarterly result after losing its smartphone market share.

Electronics parts giant Hon Hai fell 0.76%. Sources told Reuters on Thursday that the Hon Hai Group would invest more than $1 billion to build a production facility in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu.

DRAM makers fell, with Powerchip, Taiwan's top computer memory chip maker, down 4.35% and ProMOS 6.84% lower.

Taiwan Innovation Memory Co had requested less capital from the government as the DRAM chip sector emerges from its worst slump

THE PHILIPPINES

Share Prices finished lower on Friday as investors continue to grapple with the disappointing economic reports released this week, analysts said.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index slipped by 0.67% or 19.97 points to 2,922.82, while the all share index retreated by 0.55% or 10.32 points to 1,847.06.

A total of 1.87 billion shares worth P2.21 billion were traded with more foreign buyers than sellers with P78.74 million. Advancers led decliners 69 to 46 while 57 stocks did not move.

The release of those reports discouraged investors from entering the market despite the rise of the US markets, particularly the Dow Jones industrial average which touched a new year high and closed above the 10,000-point level.

Those reports include the government's revised export projection of a 20% drop in exports, worse than its earlier outlook of a 13% to 15% contraction.Overseas remittance growth also slowed in August to 2.8% from a 9.3% growth recorded the previous month.

Property stocks were down by 1.14% or 12.74 points to 1,104.63, while financials were down by 0.79% or 5.07 points to 629.33. Holding firms retreated by 0.73% or 11.85 points to 1,607, while the service sector shed 0.66% or 10.05 points to 1,504.39. Mining and oil stocks were down by 0.28% or 22.06 points to 7,851.96, while industrial companies slipped by 0.08% or 3.47 points to 4,259.34.

Most blue chips closed lower.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. fell by 2.38% or a peso to P41, while Ayala Land, Inc. declined by 2.22% or P0.25 to P11. Index heavyweight Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. also lost 0.76% or P20 to P2,590. Manila Electric Co.,meanwhile, gained 0.5% or a peso to P198, while the Bank of the Philippine Islands did not move at P46.

SINGAPORE

Singapore's Straits Times index slipped 0.15%, closing out Friday's session at 2,708.12.

About 1.6 billion shares exchanged hands.

Losers beat gainers 270 to 199.

Monday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said it will maintain the current policy stance of a zero% appreciation of the Singapore Dollar nominal effective exchange rate or S$NEER policy path. There will no change to the width of the policy band and the level at which it is centred, said MAS.

The central bank sees CPI inflation around zero% in 2009, before rising to 1%-2% in 2010. The MAS underlying inflation measure, which excludes accommodation and private road transport costs, is also expected to come in around the same range.
 
The central bank said, "Against continuing weakness and uncertainties in the external economic environment, the strength of the recovery in the Singapore economy is expected to be moderate beyond the initial uplift."

Elsewhere, a report released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry showed an annual growth 0.8% in the Singapore economy during the third quarter of 2009, compared to a 3.2% contraction in the preceding quarter.

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports or NODX dropped 7.2% year-on-year in September, at the same pace as in the previous month, a report by the International Enterprise Singapore said Friday. Economists expected a 7.9% fall.

Electronic NODX fell 14%, same as in August, while the non-electronic NODX dropped 2.4%, slower than a 2.9% fall in the previous month. Economists expected electronics NODX to slip 13.5%.

Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted NODX rose 3% in September, faster than a 1.2% rise in the previous month.

Retail sales in Singapore dropped 5.2% year-on-year in August, slower than a 9.8% fall in July, the Department of Statistics said Thursday. Economists expected a 8.9% drop. Excluding motor vehicles, sales declined 3% from the previous year.

Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted retail sales grew 5.2%, after falling a revised 1.3% in the previous month. Economists expected sales to rise 4.3%. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 1%.

Meanwhile, catering trade fell 2.8% on a yearly basis in August, but rose 1% compared to July.

THAILAND

Thai shares rose 3.5% Friday after two days of heavy losses, although some investors were still cautious despite the sharp rebound given concerns about the country's internal stability.

The SET Index closed up 24.40 points at 717.12 points in moderate trade. It hit a 2009 peak of 758.55 Tuesday but sank 2.0% the next day when rumors over the king's health began swirling through financial markets, and slumped a further 5.3% Thursday.

King Bhumibol Adulyadej was admitted to hospital on Sept. 19 and put on a drip due to a lung infection, fever, fatigue and loss of appetite. On Thursday night, the place said his appetite was improving and he was undergoing rehabilitation therapy.

The world's longest-serving monarch wields enormous power in Thailand and is considered the only unifying figure in the country. He has intervened several times in Thailand's fractious politics, including twice against military regimes to end bloody crackdowns.

In Singapore, ING recommended investors avoid Thai financial assets, while OCBC said it expected the appetite towards Thai markets to remain cautious pending further developments.

Among top actives, PTT Exploration and Production rose 4.1% to THB154.00, Thoresen Thai Agencies gained 7.3% to THB29.25, PTT added 2.8% to THB262.00, Charoen Pokphand Foods ended up 4.7% at THB9.00, and Bank of Ayudhya rose 3.2% to THB19.40.

The Baht also clawed back some ground, with the US Dollar down at THB33.43 from THB33.53 late Thursday.

Thailand's international reserves increased to US$ 133.5 billion as on October 9 from US$ 131.3 billion as on October 2, the Bank of Thailand said on Friday.

At the same time, the foreign currency reserves stood at US$ 128.79 billion, up from US$ 126.74 billion in the preceding week. Gold reserves increased to US$ 2.84 billion from US$ 2.71 billion.

Meanwhile, nation's reserve position with the International Monitory Fund amounted to US$ 365.31 million, larger than the US$ 362.82 million last week.

MALAYSIA

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia avoided a longer consolidation phase to record a new closing high for the year Friday.

Dealers said strong late follow-through buying in key heavyweights and lower liners pushed the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) 9.91 points or 0.80% higher to end at 1,256.77.

Sentiment was boosted by Wall Street's overnight rally which saw Dow Jones gaining 47.08 points or 0.47% to close at 10,062.94 and Standard and Poor's rising 4.54 points or 0.42% to 1,096.56.

OSK Research said that despite Thursday's strong opening but weak closing, the FBM KLCI's near-term technical outlook remained firmly bullish.

At Friday's close, the FBM Emas Index rose 65.79 points to 8,459.86, the FBM Top 100 increased 66.34 points to 8,242.38, the FBM 70 gained 72.34 points to 8,353.34 and the FBM ACE Index advanced 47.46 points to 4,311.18.

The Finance Index rose 87.74 points to 10,613.87, the Plantation Index gained 53.18 points to 6,128.19 and the Industrial Index added 12.10 points to 2,678.85.

Market breadth was positive with gainers outpacing losers by 481 to 239 while 238 counters were unchanged and 314 others untraded.

Turnover, however, decreased to 1.147 billion shares valued at RM1.217 billion from 1.366 billion shares worth RM1.472 billion Thursday.

Monday, the Department of Statistics Malaysia announced that sales value in manufacturing slipped 20.1% year-on-year in August, after a revised 23.2% fall in the previous month.

Month-on-month, manufacturing sales slipped 0.6%, and was down 24.7% in the first eigth months of the year from last year.

Number of employees in the manufacturing sector rose 0.1% on a monthly basis in August, but fell 6.7% compared to the previous year. Salaries and wages increased 1.5% from July and was up 0.1% from last year. Productivity of labor fell 0.7% month-on-month and was down 14.4% from the previous year.

INDONESIA

The varied Asian index movement pattern and profit taking made by the investors in the banking and PT Astra International shares have affected the composite stock price index movement in the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

However, a raise in several sectors such as telecommunication, energy, and related commodities was able to divert the index movement to positive level a second before the transaction closing. In the second session closing on Friday, Oct. 16, the index slightly rose 0.42 points (0.01%) to Rp 2,515.8.

The share volume is recorded reaching 4.19 million lots, valuing Rp 3.03 trillion with a frequency of 63,945 times.

INDIA

A rally in financial stocks coupled with gains in India's most-valuable company, Reliance Industries, helped lift local shares to close at their highest level in 17 months Friday.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-stock Sensitive Index rose 0.7%, to end at 17,322.82.

It last closed above this level May 16, 2008, when it ended at 17,434.94.

The benchmark index, which traded between 17,126.55 and 17,347.85 during the day, has soared about 80% so far this year on sustained buying by foreign funds, which have invested about $13.4 billion in 2009.

Market participants said the shares could be volatile next week after an extended weekend for Hindu festivals.

Indian markets will be open for a 60-minute special trading session Saturday to mark the auspicious Diwali day. However, markets in Mumbai will be closed Monday for another local holiday.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty rose 0.7%, to end at 5,142.15.

Financial stocks rose on hopes of positive second-quarter results and strong outlook, after earnings at HDFC Bank and Housing Development Finance Corp., India's largest mortgage lender by sales, exceeded expectations earlier this week.

State Bank of India jumped 5.3% to 2,453.90 rupees ($53.4), ICICI Bank rose 2.4% to 958.50 rupees and Housing Development Finance closed up 1.9% at 2,824.55 rupees.

Reliance Industries rose 2.1% to 2,216.60 rupees, buoyed by positive sentiment around the stock after the energy giant announced a one-for-one bonus share last week and ahead of a court hearing, due Oct. 20, on its legal dispute with Reliance Natural Resources.

Mukesh Ambani-run Reliance Industries is in a legal tangle with Reliance Natural Resources, run by estranged brother Anil Ambani, over the pricing and sale of gas from its Krishna-Godavari basin.

Sterlite Industries slipped 5.4% at 820.90 rupees after the copper producer said it raised $500 million through a sale of convertible notes - its second big fundraising in four months.

Total traded volume on the BSE was 62.38 billion rupees versus Thursday's 65.05 billion rupees. Gainers outnumbered losers 1,506 to 1,264, while 95 stocks were unchanged.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market succumbed to profit-taking in quiet trading Friday, but still managed a respectable gain for the week. Most sectors retreated slightly as investors grew cautious before results from General Electric and Bank of America, due later Friday.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 23.5 points or 0.5% at 4836.4 after drifting down to a two-day low of 4834.5 from an intraday high of 4877.1.

The index was up 1.8% for the week, its second consecutive weekly gain, having hit a 13-month high on better than expected US earnings and economic data.

Traders were expecting Friday's results from bellwether US companies, including GE and BofA, to set the short-term tone for global equity markets.

Major banks fell 0.4%-1.4% after their US peers fell despite above-consensus results from Goldman and Citigroup.

Other financials also succumbed to profit-taking, with QBE down 1.6% at A$22.91, AMP down 2.9% at A$6.65 and Macquarie down 2.1% at A$55.09.

Retailer Harvey Norman suffered the steepest decline in the top 200, falling 6.7% to A$4.44 on disappointing September quarter sales.

OZ Minerals fell 4.9% to A$125.50 as several brokers slashed their recommendations on the company after it lowered its full-year production guidance Thursday.

In the gold sector, Newcrest fell 2.5% to A$35.71 and Lihir fell 2.5% to A$3.14 as gold retreated to US$1,046.50 after hitting a record high of US$1,070.25 on Wednesday.

The energy sector was also subject to profit-taking, with Woodside down 0.9% to A$52.72 despite a rise in oil prices after a fall in US gasoline inventories.

BHP Billiton rose 0.8% to A$39.20, one of a handful of top 20 stocks closing in positive territory.

BHP's friendly A$204 million takeover offer for United Minerals saw that stock rise 40% to A$1.27 versus BHP's offer of A$1.30 a share.

Woolworths outperformed, closing flat at A$29.75 after Southern Cross Equities reiterated its Buy recommendation and A$35 price target, while tipping above-consensus first-quarter sales for Woolworths, when it reports on Tuesday.

UBS said the S&P/ASX 200 is "moderately undervalued" and should hit 5,200 in 12-months.

The broker said the market's current price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 times, based on one-year forward consensus earnings, is struck off consensus earnings expectations that are likely to rebound significantly.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares ended higher Friday, as sentiment got a boost from news of a new cornerstone investor in PGG Wrightson and a strong first-half result from Restaurant Brands.

The benchmark NZX-50 ended up 0.5% or 16 points at 3207.20.

The main focus over the day was on rural services concern PGG Wrightson that announced a strategic partnership with China's Agria Corp., sending the stock price to NZ$0.90 at one point, up 38.5%. The stock ended up 20% at NZ$0.78.

Agria will invest in PGG Wrightson through the placement of new equity representing 13% of PGG's share capital. The investment will be made at NZ$0.88-a-share, at a value of NZ$36 million, representing a 35% premium to the stock's pre-deal price of NZ$0.65. PGG Wrightson said the NZ$36 million would go toward paying down debt.

Sentiment also got a lift from a strong first-half result from Restaurant Brands earlier Friday.

The company, which operates KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks Coffee brands in New Zealand, said its net profit for the half-year to Sept. 14 more than trebled to NZ$8.9 million from the prior year.

National carrier Air New Zealand ended up 0.8% at NZ$1.33. On Friday afternoon the company announced it is slashing its domestic airfares by an average of 10% to encourage more travel.

Construction company Fletcher Building ended 3.6% higher at NZ$8.17. Snell said the stock was the object of some light bargain hunting after being under pressure in recent sessions.

The index was weighed down by a 0.8% fall in Telecom to NZ$2.55.

Snell said that volume was very light but that telcos globally have lost ground in recent weeks as investors opt for energy, materials stocks and "some of the defensive names have just been left behind as people use them for funding."
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesUS crude oil pushed above $78 a barrel on Friday, reaching a 2009 peak, while gold prices slipped after hitting a record high during the week. Nymex November West Texas Intermediate settled at $78.53 a barrel, up 95 cents on the day, and up 9.4% this week.

ICE December Brent had been down but closed at $76.99 a barrel, up 76 cents on the day and up 10% for the week.

Gold rose 0.3% to $1,053 a troy ounce, up 0.4% this week. It hit a record $1,070.40 on Wednesday, up 21.9% this year amid increasing uncertainty about the outlook for the Dollar and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Sugar prices rallied amid concerns about bad weather affecting the harvest in Brazil and worries about the outlook for production in India. Over the week, Liffe December white sugar rose 7.3% to $600.6 a tonne, while ICE March sugar added 13.1% to 24.02 cents a Pound. Low levels of global sugar stocks remain a concern to analysts. Michael Coleman, managing director of Aisling Analytics, said: "The world will have to rely on rationing demand, and the way you ration demand is through high prices."

Liffe March cocoa slipped 2% to £2,141 a tonne over the week as traders digested the latest grindings (wholesale demand) data that showed signs of a recovery in the US and Europe in the third quarter.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 Sterling's volatile run continued as data-led losses early this week were overturned in impressive style after encouraging comments by UK policymakers.

The Pound started the week on the back foot after weaker-than-expected inflation data and forecasts from an economic consultancy group that said UK base rates would remain at 0.5% into 2011.

But comments from Bank of England officials helped the currency perk up.

Charles Bean, deputy governor, said on Tuesday that the recovery in confidence and rise in asset prices since the start of its quantitative easing had been significant, while Paul Fisher, a fellow monetary policy committee member, told the Financial Times that the programme was having the scale and speed of effect the Bank had hoped for.

These comments were seen as a departure from the Bank's drab assessments of the UK recovery and relaxed attitude to Sterling's decline. Robert Lynch, at HSBC, said: "These sentiments run contrary to what many in the market have anticipated, as the Bank has tended to err on the dovish side."

It appears the Bank is letting it be known in more forceful terms that it is not talking the Pound down.

Meanwhile, rumours that investors in Qatar were seeking to buy UK supermarket group J Sainsbury, helped drive Thursday's 1.7% surge against the Euro and 1.9% jump versus the Dollar.

The Pound remained on the advance on Friday, but its climb was only modest as investors squeezed what more they could out of a rally that was soon expected to fade.

Over the week, the Pound climbed 3% against the Dollar to $1.6305, its best level in three weeks. The Pound rose 2% versus the Euro to £0.9111, a two-week high, and was up 4.6% to the Yen at a three-week high of Y148.67.

The sell off in the Dollar also eased late on this week as investors took profits from strong gains in emerging market and commodity currencies that had followed an improvement in Chinese trade data.

Over the week the South Korean won remained 0.2% higher at Won1,162.10, the Australian Dollar gained 1.5% at $0.9173, the New Zealand Dollar was up 0.8% to $0.7397 and Canada's Dollar rose 0.4% to C$1.0383.

Brazil's central bank, which has purchased $14bn in Dollars since May to prevent disorderly appreciation in the real, offered to make more purchases this week. Although the real turned lower on Friday, it was 1.5% higher over the week against the Dollar at R$1.7150.

Minutes from this month's US Federal Reserve open market committee meeting did little to help the strong Dollar cause after the central bank warned that the "costs of growth turning out to be weaker than anticipated could be relatively high''. This led most to believe official rates would stay lower for longer.

Against the majors, the Dollar gained 1.5% over the week to Y91.18 against the Yen, but fell 1% to $1.4872 versus the Euro.

The South African Rand continued to trade in a range in the afternoon session on Friday, softer from its overnight levels amid a rebounding Dollar and a weaker gold price.

The Rand was bid at 7.3400 to the Dollar from 7.2600 at its previous close. It was bid at 10.9007 to the Euro from its previous close of 10.8275 and was at 11.9676 against Sterling from 11.7915.

Here in China, focus also returned to the lack of fluctuations in the RMB, a day after the US Treasury repeated its previous finding that China was not formally manipulating its currency.

The People's Bank of China set the RMB's official rate 6.8270 against the Dollar Friday, according to reports, down slightly from 6.8267 Thursday. The RMB is allowed to fluctuate on 0.5% on either side of the official daily rate.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsThe Obama administration said on Thursday that it had "serious concerns" about the value of the renminbi, but stopped short of accusing China of manipulating its currency in a closely watched report to Congress.

The Treasury toughened its language on China in its semi-annual report on exchange rate policies. While acknowledging that Beijing had been important in steadying the global economy, it said recent moves to accumulate more foreign exchange reserves "risk unwinding some of the progress made in reducing imbalances".

But the Treasury did not say China was manipulating its currency, in spite of pressure from US labour groups and scores of legislators who argue that the undervalued renminbi makes China's exports unfairly cheap. Pressure has built this year as manufacturers suffer huge job losses and the unemployment rate creeps towards 10%.

The report comes as the Obama administration seeks to rebalance the global economy - particularly between the US and China - through the multilateral framework of the G20 group of countries under the stewardship of the International Monetary Fund.

"Both the rigidity of the renminbi and the re-acceleration of reserve accumulation are serious concerns which should be corrected to help ensure a stronger, more balanced global economy consistent with the G20 framework," the report said. "Treasury remains of the view that the renminbi is undervalued."

Officially labelling China a currency manipulator could have led to sanctions and would almost certainly have created a diplomatic rift between the two countries. President Barack Obama is due to visit the country for the first time next month amid lingering tension after he decided to impose tariffs on Chinese tyre imports.

In Congress, seven senators and 69 House members are sponsoring bills that would make currency manipulation an "actionable" subsidy, opening up China to a trade sanctions.

Lloyd Wood, of the Fair Currency Coalition, an alliance of industry, agriculture and worker groups, said the administration's failure to label China a currency manipulator would probably create more support for the bill. "We're interested in actions not words; name calling doesn't do anybody any good," he said. "This imbalance simply cannot continue."

("And what can he or the US do about it?" I ask myself!)

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Investors are signaling China's debt rating is too low for an economy set to overtake Japan as the second biggest, driving up returns on government and corporate securities.

Contracts to insure China's bonds are less expensive than those for Greece, Ireland, Spain and Italy -- each deemed at least as safe by Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's or Fitch Ratings, after being pricier in 2008. They also are cheaper than all but four of 39 emerging-market credit-default swaps tracked by Bloomberg, including Israel and Abu Dhabi, which have the same or higher international-debt ratings.

A JPMorgan Chase & Co. index of Dollar-denominated Chinese government and corporate debt is up 27% this year after posting its best three quarters since the measure was created in 2005, as China's $3.9 trillion economy led the recovery from a global recession. Germany's Union Investment and Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., which together manage more than $280 billion, are betting on China government notes while Western Asset Management in the US is buying debt sold by property developers and gas utilities.

It costs 67 basis points, or $67,000 a year to protect $10 million of China's bonds, 21 points more than for Japan's debt, which is rated two levels higher. That premium is down from this year's 69-point average and about the smallest since January 2008.

China's 4.25% Euro bonds due in 2014 have returned 12% this year, the most since they were sold in 2004. They gained 5.1% in all of 2008 and 7.2% in 2005, the best full year so far, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Demand for the bonds has narrowed the spread to Italy's bonds to 27 basis points, or 0.27 percentage point, from 1.76 percentage points in October, the month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. prompted investors to dump emerging-market debt. Dergachev bought the bonds about six months ago and predicts the yield will fall below Italy's.

Investors would earn 4% should demand increase enough to lower the current 3.14% yield by 27 basis points in a year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. By comparison, investors have lost 3.1% on US Treasuries so far in 2009, Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes show.

China has the world's largest currency reserves at $2.27 trillion and debt equal to 20% of gross domestic product, compared with 219% for Japan and 116% for Italy. The three main ratings companies say China's record increase in lending and reliance on government spending to drive growth offset those advantages.

"It's not as obvious as it may seem to some investors that China is a slam-dunk, double-A country", said Moody's, which rates the country A1, four levels below its top AAA. "Their banks have injected so much credit in a short time".

Ratings companies say China's economic growth masks weaknesses because it has been sustained by a $586 billion government stimulus package and record new loans this year of $1.3 trillion. The country's GDP will expand 9% in 2010, versus 1.7% for Japan, the Washington-based International Monetary Fund predicts. China's economy will grow to $5.3 trillion, surpassing Japan's output of $4.7 trillion, IMF figures show.

Speculation about an upgrade comes as China starts to open its local-currency debt market to global investors.

The government has five bonds denominated in Dollars, one in Euros and one in Yen. Five of the six for which Bloomberg has data have produced profits this year for an average return of 2.7%, with three outpacing 2008's performance.

The nation's overseas bonds total $4.3 billion, less than a fifth of the Philippine government's $22 billion in outstanding foreign securities. Including corporate bonds, China has $43.5 billion of international debt as of June, according to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.

As of September, 78 foreign entities, including UBS AG and Morgan Stanley, were permitted to invest another $15.7 billion in local-currency debt and stocks, according to China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange data. China has said it plans to increase that to $30 billion with additional investment licenses.

The government denies foreigners access to the rest of its RMB-denominated bonds, which totaled the equivalent of $1.35 trillion in March, almost double 2006's year-end sum, BIS figures show.

China plans to complete its first auction of RMB bonds in Hong Kong this month, to raise the equivalent of $880 million. Demand has been "quite strong," said Tse Kwok Leung, head of the economic research division at Bank of China Ltd.'s Hong Kong branch. Bank of China, the nation's third-largest lender, and mainland financial companies also have sold the equivalent of $4.7 billion in local-currency bonds in Hong Kong since July 2007.

China's foreign-currency debt was upgraded to its current levels of A1 by Moody's in July 2007, A+ by Fitch in November 2007 and A+ by S&P in July 2008. Japan is rated Aa2, AA and AA, respectively.

Since China's last upgrade, the cost of insuring its bonds has fallen from as high as 2.90 percentage points in October to Friday's 0.68 point, the sharpest drop since the contract started trading in 2003. Initially created to protect against defaults, swaps also are used to speculate on credit quality.

DBS Asset Management, a unit of Singapore's largest bank, said state-owned banks' Dollar debt is worth buying, including China Development Bank's 4.75% note due in 2014, which yields 3.70% according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It also recommends seeking access to RMB bonds to profit from exchange-rate appreciation.

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PetroChina Co., the world's second- biggest company by value, plans to "rapidly" increase natural gas production to help meet energy demand in the fastest-growing major economy.

Gas output may match that of crude by "about 2015," while gains in oil production will be marginal, Vice President Li Hualin said in an interview in Beijing on Oct. 14. PetroChina produced gas equivalent to 170 million barrels of oil between January and June, compared with crude output of 418 million barrels, data provided by the state-controlled company show.

China, the world's biggest polluter, is increasing gas imports and building pipelines to ramp up supplies from fields in Xinjiang and Sichuan in the west to commercial hubs including Shanghai and Guangdong. The country wants to cut dependence on coal, which accounts for 80% of power generation, as it takes steps to curb greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.

China's gas supplies, including imports, may double to 120 billion cubic meters by 2015 from 2010, Liu Xiaoli, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's economic planner, said in September.

Beijing-based PetroChina signed a 20-year liquefied natural gas supply contract in August with Exxon Mobil Corp., which will start shipping the fuel from the Gorgon project in Australia from 2014 or 2015. The deal is worth about A$50 billion ($46 billion), according to the Australian government.

PetroChina's annual oil refining capacity may increase to 200 million metric tons in five years as new plants start operating, compared with 129 million tons currently, Li said.

The company will seek to buy refineries overseas, Li said, without naming potential targets. "We aim to have a vertically integrated business to maximize our profitability."

China National Petroleum Corp., PetroChina's parent, expects its overseas oil and gas production to match domestic output by 2020 as the company acquires more assets to meet demand and bolster energy security, Li said. Total production, including domestic output, may reach 400 million tons of oil equivalent by then, he said.

PetroChina is accelerating its overseas strategy "not only because of the nation's rising domestic demand," Li said. "More importantly, our overseas projects have proved to be profitable, more profitable than some of our domestic projects."

China National Petroleum received a $30 billion loan from state-run China Development Bank to fund its overseas expansion as the government stepped up its hunt for energy resources.

"We still have our own cash flow and the loan so far seems to be more than sufficient," Li said. PetroChina is seeking an "appropriate return" on overseas acquisitions, he said, without giving figures.

PetroChina aims to maintain a market share of about 40% in China's fuel distribution market in the coming years, Li said, without elaborating.

************************

Steel production in China, the world's biggest maker, dropped in September from a month ago as oversupply led to a price decline.

Daily steel output was 1.64 million metric tons, down 40,000 tons from August, Shan Shanghua, secretary general of the the China Iron & Steel Association, said Friday at a conference in Qingdao.

Steel prices in China have dropped 25% since reaching a 10-month high on Aug. 4, as overproduction offset rising demand created by government spending. Mills will be forced to cut output in the next two months as prices decline a further 5% to 10%, Jiangsu Shagang Group Co. said.

"Steel production has rebounded faster than demand recovery," Shan said.

China is working on plans to curb excess capacity as the nation faces "severe oversupply," Deng Qilin, general manager of Wuhan Iron & Steel Group, said Oct. 13. Some steelmakers have incurred losses at current prices and prices Won't rebound for the rest of the year, Deng had said.

Hubei province-based Wuhan Steel, the nation's third- largest mill, may carry out annual maintenance, which will reduce output, Deng had said.

Steel output in China reached a record this year as the government invests 4 trillion RMB ($586 billion) in the economy, spurring public works building. The nation's cabinet in August said it was studying curbs on overcapacity in industries including steel.

Mills in China may have the capacity to produce 700 million tons of steel a year, according to Wuhan Steel. Chinese demand may expand by 19% this year to 526 million tons, the World Steel Association predicted this week.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 The Dollar lost fresh ground to near 14-month lows, as stocks, commodities and other risk assets continued their ascent, but the Yen emerged as the biggest loser this week.

As suggested in last week's Newsletter, Yen-crosses reconnected with risk appetites and saw some of their biggest gains in months after languishing for the last several weeks while the focus was on Dollar weakness.

With US Treasury yields sustaining recent gains, the Yen is likely to continue to act as the primary funding currency for risk speculators, perhaps giving the USD some breathing room, if only in USD/Yen terms.

Corporate earnings are likely to remain the key driver next week, however, and any Dollar recovery is only likely on disappointing reports or economic data. Sentiment remains extremely USD negative, and dovish FOMC minutes reinforced concerns over the strength of the US recovery.

More importantly for the USD, discussion among Fed officials over extending the size of the Fed's asset purchases (quantitative easing) adds yet another reason to sell Dollars.

Markets appeared to be expecting the Fed to wind down its asset purchases, so the FOMC discussion came as a surprise.

Alongside the dismal position of public finances, the release of much worse than expected US Q2 data was arguably responsible for much of the sour mood that has clouded the British Pound since the middle of the year.

Data released during the past few months suggest that the production sector in the UK may be slipping back into recession and this has led to a median expectation for Q3 GDP of just +0.2% q/q (-4.6% y/y).

Risk that this number could disappoint coupled with poor PSNCR data and the likelihood that the tone of the MPC minutes will remain cautious on the economic outlook implies that QE may be back on the table by the end of next week and Sterling could be struggling to push higher.

As a consequence cable is likely to hold a more cautious tone going into the new week. That said, good economic data would support the more constructive technical picture and could lead to another squeeze higher for the Pound.

On Monday and Tuesday next week, Euro-area finance ministers will gather for a regular monthly meeting and officials' comments suggest Euro strength is likely to be a topic of discussion.

Eurozone finance group chief Juncker indicated that he is not concerned about current Eur levels, but that further strength could undermine European recovery prospects. France's Lagarde has been the most vocal in calling for Euro strength/USD weakness to be addressed, but German Economics minister Guttenberg said that USD weakness was not a cause for concern for exporters.

However, Eurozone exports fell by 5.8% m/m sa in August. This suggests that the Eurozone could be struggling to shrug off the constraints of its downturn in the face of the strength of the Eur.

On balance, expectations are low that the conclave will produce any concrete results to stem the Eur's rise, but traders are likely to tread cautiously until the meetings are done and comments are out of the way.

A depreciating Dollar helps US exporters - as third quarter US earnings might highlight next week - and is part of the long-term global rebalancing process, but it risks becoming more and more of a headache for countries on the other side of that currency equation, such as those members of the Euro zone, Canada, Japan, or Australia.

Expressions of concern about volatility are more prevalent than complaints about actual levels and any official comments next week (e.g. from those Eurogroup finance officials I mentioned or the Bank of Canada) are unlikely to depart from this principle. Financial markets are ever more alert, however, for G7 watchwords such as "excessive volatility" being deployed.

Retailers will wrest the spotlight from banks when the second full week of US earnings and the first full week of the European reporting deluge gets under way next week.

Results from Apple, Nestle, Danone, Coca-Cola, Cadbury, Hershey, LVMH, PPR, Ahold and Home Retail are set to shape investors' views on how strongly economies are recovering and the regions in which domestic demand is strongest.

If corporate results and/or macro data (retail sales from Britain, Italy, China; flash PMI; UK Q3 GDP, China GDP and industrial output) show consumption and the broader economy is picking up, it could help to buoy world stocks and keep them in positive territory in the quarter to date.

More and more companies are taking advantage of the market rally to raise capital - either to repair their balance sheet or to fund acquisitions.

So far so good, given that liquidity in the system is helping absorb the supply, but Credit Suisse points out that it would start to worry if net corporate issuance (IPO plus secondaries less cash-financed bid activity and buyback) breaches certain levels - e.g. 1% of US market capitalization from current levels of 0.5%.

All in all, next week will be more of the same I feel - although even the most hawkish among those sat the 'other side of the pond' must realise that this ridiculously swift rally is out of steam and is a hairs' breath away from a major correction!
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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US Markets
European Markets
The UK Market
Asia Pacific Markets
Global Commodities
Global Currencies
China This Week
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