Financial Page International

19 September 2009 - Global Markets Review

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
I have been in Hong Kong the past two days and it is very easy to see why Financial Markets continue to rise - the October 2007 - March 2009 Financial Crisis never existed!!!

Seriously, that is the distinct impression that I get down here because no-one seems to be concerned; in fact the only single 'concern' I have felt down here is concern over China and whether there will be another correction in markets there.

The rest of the world is - if you believe the thinking here in Hong Kong - perfectly set for a sustained rally and some people I spoke to talked of the Hang Seng in Hong Kong reaching 25,000 before the end of the year.

I find this truly astonishing but am beginning to sound like the lone voice out there!

The arguments I am hearing against my prediction that markets will correct do little to assuage my fears - the main argument being that there is so much liquidity that has been sat on the sidelines for so long, it is now coming back to the market at an increasing daily rate.

All you have to do is look at how many people are trading their own shares now - this is what the brokers here in Hong Kong say - and they may be pointing out a fact that has been overlooked.

Stock market trading by small investors has surged to levels last seen during the "dotcom" boom, with many thousands of people buying into the strong recovery in shares.

Some of the biggest brokers say a "tide" of individual investors - frustrated with the low interest rates on offer in cash savings accounts and wary of buying into property - have turned to equities in the hope of riding a six-month rally that has propelled the blue-chip index to levels almost 50 per cent above its March low.

Despite fears of an autumn correction, stock markets this week marked the anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse by marching to fresh highs.

Share buying by retail investors had outweighed sales. But the growth in trading volumes was mainly accounted for by a year-on-year tripling in the numbers of people becoming "active" traders - dealing more than 30 times in one quarter.

But this is where my concerns about a correction remind me of China in 2008. The similarities of where Global Markets are now compared to where Chinese Markets were in late 2007 are practically parallel - and this is worrying.

In China, the Taxi Drivers, the Maids, the Construction Workers were all watching the markets roar up to record highs - and peer pressure dictated that they did not want to miss the boat.

So in turn, they themselves started to trade shares and volumes traded increased almost daily.

But the savvy, astute institutional investors created their own market 'exit' in October 2007 and from that point forward the only losers were going to be the 'little people' that had only recently joined the market.

The parallels are alarming and I think that Global Markets in 2009 are mirroring what happened in China in late 2007 through 2008 - everyone seems unhappy with their cash rates in the bank and so they are seeking higher returns.

Higher returns are coming very easily to stockmarkets and so we have a self-perpetuating problem and a different kind of bubble forming.

But instead of the Institutions being the losers this time around, I'm afraid for the small investor, the 'new kids on the block' that have only recently opened their online trading account and basically are just learning the ropes.

My advice to those people is to only 'trade' what you can afford to lose 30% of because quite simply, the longer the stockmarket rally continues, the higher the correction is going to be.

On to the numbers for the week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks rose, extending the market's second straight weekly advance, as analyst upgrades of companies from Procter & Gamble Co. to SanDisk Corp. and Chevron Corp. overshadowed concern equities have grown too expensive.

Procter & Gamble and SanDisk added at least 3.2% and Chevron climbed 0.9%. Hewlett-Packard Co. gained 1% after Stifel Nicolaus & Co. recommended buying shares ahead of its analyst meeting. Texas Instruments Inc. increased 2% on plans to boost its dividend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased yesterday's loss and climbed above its highest closing level in almost a year.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.3% to 1,068.30 at 4:10 p.m. in New York. The benchmark measure for US equities rallied 2.5% this week. The Dow average added 36.28 points, or 0.4%, to 9,820.2, its highest close since Oct. 6. Six stocks gained for every five that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

The 58% rebound in the S&P 500 from its 12-year low on March 9 has pushed valuations in the index to about almost 20 times the reported earnings from continuing operations of its companies, the highest level since 2004, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.

Procter & Gamble was raised to "buy" from "hold" at Citigroup Inc., which lifted its price estimate to $66 from $54 and said in a report the world's largest consumer-goods company "is readying itself to become more aggressive in order to win back lost market share." The shares climbed 3.2% to $57.32.

SanDisk added 5.5% to $22.84. The biggest maker of flash-memory cards was upgraded to "buy" from "underperform" at Bank of America Corp., which cited the prospects for a "dramatic" earnings recovery.

Chevron added 0.9% to $72.64. The oil company was raised to "outperform" from "neutral" at Credit Suisse Group AG, which increased its price estimate on to $80 from $70.

Hewlett-Packard rose 1% to $46.15. Stifel Nicolaus recommended buying shares of the world's largest personal- computer maker ahead of its analyst meeting on Thursday.

E-Trade Financial Corp. climbed 8.2% to $1.84. The online brokerage that's been unprofitable for two years was raised to "buy" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said the company may return to profit by the fourth quarter of 2010.

Harman International Industries Inc. jumped 7.2% to $32.47. The maker of audio systems for homes and vehicles yesterday said it will provide an entertainment and information system for BMW AG. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated its "overweight" rating for the shares, saying the deal secures "material" revenue visibility.

Palm Inc. lost 3% to $14.01 after reporting a ninth- straight quarterly loss because of costs to develop and market the three-month-old Pre smart phone. The first-quarter net loss widened to $164.5 million from $41.9 million a year ago. Palm also gave a sales forecast for the next three months that missed analysts' estimates.

The US Treasury confirmed its insurance program for money-market mutual funds will expire today, removing a safeguard that halted a run on the industry a year ago.

"As the risk of catastrophic failure of the financial system has receded, the need for some of the emergency programs put in place during the most acute phase of the crisis has receded as well," Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said today in a statement. The Temporary Guarantee Program for Money Market Funds collected $1.2 billion in fees from participating

Betting against US financial companies just hasn't been the same since the Securities and Exchange Commission temporarily banned the practice a year ago.

Short interest in S&P 500 financial stocks other than Citigroup hasn't risen above the total of 2.16 billion shares on Sept. 15, 2008, just before the SEC imposed the restriction, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. The total has crossed the 2 billion-share threshold only once. That happened on March 31, about three weeks after the S&P 500 started rallying from a 12-year low.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryThe FTSE Eurofirst 300 pushed through the 1,000 point mark this week but the rally faltered on Friday.

European's benchmark index slipped 0.5% to 1,006.5, bringing its weekly gain to 1.3%.

The Stoxx 600 retreated 0.5% to 244.92, trimming this week's advance to 1.3%. The benchmark index for European equities has soared 55% since March 9, driving its valuation to more than 47 times reported earnings, the highest level in more than six years, according to weekly data

National benchmark indexes slipped in 11 of the 18 western European markets. Germany's DAX fell 0.5% and France's CAC 40 decreased 0.2%. The UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.2% as GlaxoSmithKline gained.

GERMANY

German stocks fell for the first time in four days after a rally in the benchmark DAX Index to an 11-month high left the measure valued at the most expensive level since December 2003.

Volkswagen AG sank to the lowest price in more than two years after the common shares' free float declined to 14.5%. Salzgitter AG slipped for a second day as metal prices dropped. BASF SE climbed to the highest level this month after the world's biggest chemical company said it's raising prices for some products. Deutsche Boerse AG gained for a second day as Equinet AG upgraded the shares.

The DAX Index dropped 0.5% to 5,703.83, trimming the weekly advance to 1.4%. A six-month rally has left the measure trading at about 48.7 times its companies reported earnings, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg. The broader HDAX Index lost 0.4% today.

A report today showed German producer prices rose for the first time in 11 months in August as energy costs increased. Prices gained 0.5% from a month earlier after falling 1.5% in July, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists forecast a 0.2% increase, according to the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, retreated 6.7% to 113.22 Euros, the lowest close since June 2007. The common shares' free float was reduced from 20.08%, Deutsche Boerse said.

Salzgitter, Germany's second-largest steelmaker, fell 1.5% to 70.42 Euros as metal prices tumbled in London.

Steelmakers face a slow recovery from the worst slump in demand since World War II as industry struggles to get funding for capital investment, according to Rautaruukki Oyj Chief Executive Officer Sakari Tamminen.

BASF climbed 1.2% to 36.98 Euros as the chemical company said it's raising prices for some polyalcohols worldwide with immediate effect. Wacker Chemie AG advanced 5.4% to 104 Euros, the highest price in a year.

Deutsche Boerse rose 2.7% to 59.53 Euros as the operator of the Frankfurt bourse was upgraded to "accumulate" from "hold" at Equinet.

Munich Re added 1% to 104.99 Euros. Credit Suisse Group AG cited the world's biggest reinsurer as its preferred stock in the sector. Smaller rival Hannover Re rallied 6% to 32.50 Euros.

Arcandor AG slid 29% to 34 cents. The retailer's insolvency administrator is in talks with at least four potential investors who interested in acquiring the company's Primondo/Quelle catalog-sales unit, his spokesman said. Thomas Schulz, who speaks for insolvency administrator Klaus Hubert Goerg, declined to identify the potential buyers. He said the talks are "serious."

Metro AG, Germany's biggest retailer, sank 3.5% to 36.03 Euros, snapping a two-day gain.

Q-Cells SE surged 12% to 14.04 Euros, the steepest advance among stocks in the HDAX Index, after the producer of cells used in solar panels said it plans to start selling a new generation of more efficient cells next year. Separately, Q- Cells expects net debt at about 550 million Euros ($810 million) to 600 million Euros by the end of this year and its group liquidity position of 250 million Euros to 300 million Euros.

Solarworld AG rallied 6.8% to 17.50 Euros, the highest close in more than a month.

SAF-Holland SA surged 20% to 2.41 Euros after the supplier of parts for heavy-truck trailers said it's making progress in talks with banks on financing, and that a standstill agreement has been extended until Oct. 27.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index slid 7.43, or 0.2%, to 3,827.84, paring this week's advance to 2.5%. The SBF 120 Index lost 0.2% today.

Argan added 28 cents, or 2.9%, to 10.10 Euros, gaining for a fourth day after the warehouse owner said it expects to report full-year rental income of 30 million Euros and operating cash flow of 26.7 million Euros. The company also said it won a contract from L'Oreal SA.

Mindscape sank 70 cents, or 9.7%, to 6.50 Euros, heading for the biggest drop in more than 18 months after the French video-game developer's first-half net loss widened to 6.14 million Euros from 661,000 Euros a year earlier.

Groupe Promeo advanced 4.60 Euros, or 26%, to 22.30, the first gain in three days, as the real- estate developer forecast a rise in full-year revenue.

Referencement.com lost 19.67 cents, or 5.4%, to 3.46 Euros, the biggest drop in two months. The electronic marketing company said it plans to raise 700,000 Euros selling 223,578 new shares at 3.18 Euros apiece. The share sale runs from Sept. 18 through Oct. 16.

Sodexo, the world's second-biggest catering company, dropped 42.5 cents, or 1%, to 41.32, the third drop this week, after Natixis Securities downgraded the shares to "reduce" from "add."

BELGIUM

In Brussels the Bel 20 ended the week at 2,499.45, declines of 0.19% on the day.

Shares in ArcelorMittal fell 2.5% on Thursday, among the top decliners in Europe, with traders citing market talk the steelmaker may be considering a possible capital increase.

An ArcelorMittal spokesman declined to comment.

Four traders around Europe said there was talk that ArcelorMittal could launch a possible capital increase, but had no details on the size of the capital hike.

The shares were down 2.5% at 27.79 Euros, making them among the weakest in the FTSEurofirst 300, while the DJ Stoxx European basic resources index was virtually unchanged.

ArcelorMittal, which issued $3.2 billion of stock and $800 million of convertibles at the end of April, gave presentations to analysts on Wednesday.

Analysts understood deleveraging was no longer the company's number one priority and that it was considering possible acquisitions again, particularly in mining, and would increase capital expenditure with projects in Brazil and India.

Shares in Belgian bancassurer KBC rose to a 9-month high after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of KBC with a 'Buy' rating and adds the stock to its Pan-Europe conviction list.

The stock gains as much as 7% to 34.45 Euros, against a 1.82% rise for the DJ STOXX European banking index .SX7P, and has tripled since mid-July.

The head of Compagnie du Bois Sauvage SA has been detained over alleged insider trading in Fortis and the company's shares have been suspended, the Belgian holding company said late on Thursday.

The company is under investigation over 3.6 million Fortis shares it sold for 19.5 million Euros ($28.4 million) on Oct. 3, just before the Netherlands announced the nationalisation of Fortis's Dutch operations, the first step in the group's carve-up.

Bois Sauvage chief Vincent Doumier was taken into custody on Thursday on charges of fraud and insider trading.

"The board of directors maintains full confidence in its chief executive and forcefully confirms that no offence was committed," the company said in a statement.

Chairman Guy Paquot would temporarily assume the role of chief executive, the company said.

The board had also asked the Belgian financial markets regulator to suspend trading in Bois Sauvage shares up to and including Monday.

Fortis shares, which had previously been regarded by many market participants as a safe investment, fell to below 1 Euro after the break-up from more than 5 Euros just before.

Belgian media have said the insider trading, if proven, could lead to a fine of 45 million Euros.

Fortis was carved up by the Dutch, Belgian and Luxembourg governments in October after an 11.2 billion Euro cash injection failed to calm investors.

THE NETHERLANDS

The AEX in Amsterdam closed out the session Friday at 313.63, down marginally 0.08% for the session.

Shares in ING Group fell around heavily Tuesday after De Volkstrant reported that European Competition authorities are not currently prepared to approve a 22 billion Euro ($32.2 billion) guarantee from the Dutch government.

The newspaper reported that E.U. Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes believes the Dutch government may have been too generous with the terms of its guarantee package and that ING may therefore have to pay a higher fee.

However, Kroes will give Dutch authorities more time to provide evidence that the deal was fair, the report said.

Shares of Dutch supermarket group Super de Boer surged 18.6% to 4.14 Euros in Amsterdam on Friday after the firm received a 4.20 Euro a share offer from privately-held rival Jumbo Holding.

Super de Boer's 57% shareholder Casino said that it will support the bid.

Ahold, which also operates supermarkets in the Netherlands, said that it isn't interested in buying the firm, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Ahold shares were up 0.9% in Amsterdam while Casino shares climbed 3.2% in Paris.

AUSTRIA

Vienna's ATX finished the week at 2,588.80, a drop og 0.94% on the day Friday.

Minority shareholders in Immoeast AG, the Austrian property developer that plans to merge with majority owner Immofinanz AG, will be offered control of the enlarged company in return for backing the transaction.

"There has to be a compelling commercial argument for the Immoeast shareholders to make sure they raise their hands when they have to vote on the merger," Eduard Zehetner, chief executive officer of both businesses, said in an interview. "The tricky part is how sweet to make the cake."

Immofinanz's biggest asset is its 55% stake in Immoeast, whose market value is almost three times bigger. Without that, Immofinanz's debt exceeds its assets by about 800 million Euros ($1.2 billion), Zehetner said Sept. 16 in Amsterdam. That would have to be reflected in the terms of any merger presented to investors, he said.

Zehetner, 58, is selling holdings of Immoeast and Immofinanz, Austria's largest property companies, after they reported record losses for fiscal 2009. Immofinanz amended its 2008 balance sheet, while Vienna prosecutors are investigating possible accounting fraud by former executives.

Immofinanz will have to buy the rest of Immoeast because any other transaction would be too complicated, Zehetner said. The CEO said he "hopes strongly" that the Vienna-based companies will combine in 2010.

Immoeast and Immofinanz are the best performers on the Vienna exchange this year, climbing more than eightfold and fivefold, respectively. Even so, shares of both are trading at less than a third of their highs reached in 2007. Together, the companies have a market value of about 4.4 billion Euros.

Zehetner replaced Karl Petrikovics as CEO of Immoeast in November and became Immofinanz's chief in March. He is trying to recoup 350 million Euros after Petrikovics arranged for Immoeast to invest 513 million Euros in a bond that the supervisory board didn't know about. Zehetner also plans to sell minority stakes in real-estate funds and closely held property companies.

Zehetner aims to reach two "conditional" agreements relating to the recovery of the 350 million Euros before Immoeast shareholders meet on Oct. 1 and Immofinanz investors convene a day later, he said.

One will be with Constantia Packaging BV, a closely held Dutch company, and will result in Immoeast getting 170 million Euros in cash, Immoeast shares and other assets including a stake in Austria Metall AG, Zehetner said.

"We could get the money by the end of the year or early next year," said Zehetner. "That will improve our cash position by as much as 220 million Euros."

The other agreement Zehetner is seeking is to buy Constantia Privatbank AG, a closely held bank. The bank had to be rescued by five Austrian lenders in October after depositors withdrew money on concern about its involvement in Immofinanz and Immoeast, which it used to manage.

Immoeast and Immofinanz have claims of 400 million Euros against Constantia Privatbank, Zehetner said.

Constantia Privatbank, Constantia Packaging and Immofinanz are in talks about a settlement, according to Manfred Waldenmair, a spokesman for the bank.

"There are numerous claims and counterclaims and opinions on the value of the claims differ considerably," he said. "A takeover of Constantia Privatbank by Immofinanz is a suggestion of Immofinanz. A decision on this won't be made until the end of the negotiations."

Alfred Autischer, a spokesman for Constantia Packaging, said he doesn't expect a settlement by October because several commercial and legal questions remain unresolved.

Vienna brewery Ottakringer is to buy back a 17-million-Euro stake from rival Brau-Union/Heineken, the company announced yesterday. Brau-Union acquired the 13.43% share in Ottakringer 11 years ago and was then taken over by Dutch firm Heineken in 2003.

Ottakringer chief Sigi Menz branded the deal "an Ottakringer holiday". The firm served free beer at its locations in Vienna and St. Pölten yesterday afternoon to celebrate the move.

The deal will see families that control Ottakringer through Ottakringer Holding AG take a 92% stake in the company.

The Wenckheim family will have an interest of 65%, the Menz family 15% and the Pfusterschmid and Trauttenberg families smaller stakes. The remaining eight% of shares will be held by small shareholders.

Ottakringer will receive 172,454 common shares and 4,370 preferred shares of its stock from Brau-Union/Heineken on Thursday.

SWITZERLAND

The SMI in Zurich rounded out Friday's session at 6,325.15, up 0.12% for the session.

Switzerland's stock exchange is investigating UBS for possible breaches of rules regarding publication of price sensitive information and information on its board, it said on Friday. SIX Exchange Regulation said it had started the investigation into possible breaches of the ad hoc publicity directive -- used to regulate potentially price-sensitive information -- by UBS from 2007 to the end of 2008.

SIX Exchange Regulation, which monitors and enforces issuers' obligations for the SIX Swiss Exchange, is also looking into possible breaches of the corporate governance directive in connection with the UBS 2008 annual report.

UBS declined to comment.

Shares in UBS were trading 1.8% lower at 18.98 Swiss by 0820 GMT, underperforming the Dow Jones Stoxx European banks index which was 0.9% lower.

The exchange's corporate governance directive requires issuers to disclose important information on their board and senior management or to give substantial reasons why this information is not disclosed.

UBS, which is struggling to rebuild its reputation after a US government tax evasion probe and after chalking up huge losses in the credit crisis, revised its 2008 accounts twice, once in March and again in May.

A spokesman for the SIX Exchange declined to comment on whether that was the reason for the investigation, adding he could not give any further details.

In March, UBS said it had revised up its 2008 net loss by 1.2 billion francs to include a big US tax fine and more writedowns from the 19.7 billion francs it originally reported, already the biggest loss in Swiss corporate history.

The other additional charges that increased the 2008 loss related to the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) valuation of around $7.8 billion of securities not yet transferred to an SNB stability fund, dedicated to mopping up UBS's toxic assets.

In May, UBS restated its 2008 accounts again, raising its full year loss by a further 405 million Swiss francs to correct accounting errors. It also reduced equity and equity attributable to UBS shareholders by 269 million francs.

The investigatory proceedings will continue for an indefinite period, the SIX Exchange said.

"SIX Exchange will announce its findings, although no information will be provided while the proceedings are ongoing," it said.

SWEDEN

The OMX in Stockholm closed the week Friday on 920.23, down 0.39% for the day.

Sweden's Swedbank AB Thursday said it plans to buy back up to 3 billion Swedish kronor ($435 million) in subordinated debt from investors as it strives to improve the quality of its capital.

It echoes moves by a growing list of banks that have recently bought back subordinated debt, often at discounts, as they look to take advantage of depressed market prices to reduce their outstanding debts.

In the second quarter, Swedish rival Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB-A.SK) booked a capital gain of SEK1.3 billion after buying back GBP400 million of subordinated debt at 75% of its par value.

Swedbank said it plans to call its outstanding subordinated debt due during 2010, including a $300 million Tier 1 bond due in March 2010. A final decision will be made before the call expiration date and is subject to approval by Sweden's Financial Supervisory Authority.

"It is Swedbank's view that the continued ability to support the bank's balance sheet should be secured by its core Tier 1 capital," the bank said.

Over the last year, Swedbank has increased its core Tier 1 ratio, which includes equity capital and retained earnings minus goodwill, by 1.3% to 9.8% at end-June. Its recently announced SEK15.1 billion rights issue - the bank's second in less than a year - would hike its core Tier 1 to a pro forma 12.1% as of June 30.

The bank said it currently doesn't plan to issue any new subordinated debt instruments.

Swedish telecom firm Tele2 set a new core profit target for its mobile operations on Thursday and lifted its sights for its Russian and Swedish units.

Tele2 said that its mobile operations on networks which it owns should have an EBITDA margin in the mid-30's% or higher over the long term.

Its two biggest markets, Sweden and Russia, had EBITDA margins of 32% and 40% respectively in the second quarter.

In Sweden, however, Tele2 said its margin would fall next year as the company looks to increase market share among premium customers.

Tele2's operations in France, Norway and Holland are on shared networks.

Tele2 also said it was considering options for Tele2 France.

Autoliv, the world's largest supplier of car airbags and seatbelts, Thursday increased its earnings forecasts for the rest of the year after better-than-expected sales in the third quarter due to a recovery in light-vehicle production.

The Swedish-American company, which supplies customers such as Ford, Volkswagen and General Motors, said full-year sales could reach nearly $4.9 billion despite an expected 25% drop in North American and West European light-vehicle production.

The company said its operating margin, excluding restructuring charges, is expected to be 4% for the third quarter of 2009, up from 1% to 3% forecast in July. Consolidated sales for the quarter are expected to decline by 15% to 20%, instead of 20% to 25%, provided current currency-exchange rates prevail. Organic sales are expected to decline by 10% to 15%.

Autoliv said it expects restructuring costs of $100 million. In July, Autoliv said that it expected restructuring costs for 2009 to exceed the $75 million it had announced previously without specifying a new amount. Despite this increase, Autoliv said it now believes that it could reach a break-even operating margin for the full year, including restructuring charges.

Autoliv said in December last year that it had cut 5,900 jobs, or 14% of its workforce, in a cost-cutting program initiated in July. The measures aimed to save $120 million in 2010 at an initial cost estimate of $75 million.

DENMARK

Copenhagen's OMX finished Friday at 337.04, absolutely flat on the day.

Denmark's third-largest bank, Sydbank, said on Tuesday its placement of 6.75 million new shares raised 877.5 million Danish crowns ($172.5 million).

The stock was priced at 130 crowns per share and sold to domestic and international institutional investors, Sydbank said in a statement.

The offering was at a discount of 5.3% to Monday's closing price of 137.25 crowns.

Danish online trading and investment bank Saxo Bank A/S Tuesday said it will acquire a 25% stake in Portugal's online financial group Banco Best as part of a deal that will also raise stakeholder Espirito Santo Financial Group S.A.'s ownership in Saxo to almost 5% from 2.5%.

After completing the transactions, which follow an initial agreement reached in January 2008, ESFG and its subsidiary Banco Espirito Santo S/A will together control about 10% of Saxo's share capital.

ESFG is a holding company that groups most of Banco Espirito Santo's financial holdings.

"ESFG has also agreed to sell shares to Saxo Bank representing 25% of the capital of Banco Best, of which BES Group is a majority shareholder," Saxo Bank said in a statement.

No financial details were given.

Additionally, Saxo and Banco Best have inked a deal to make subsystems of Banco Best's online platform of products and services available to Saxo, it said.

"The 25% stake of Portugal's leading online bank illustrates Saxo Bank's commitment to extending our products and services," said Saxo Bank co-Chief Executives Kim Fournais and Lars Seier Christensen in a statement.

Saxo aims for further expansion and consolidation of its undertakings, especially in asset management, the co-CEOs added.

Danisco A/S, the Nordic region's biggest food-ingredient maker, rose the most in four months in Copenhagen trading after it posted fiscal first quarter profit that beat analyst estimates and lifted full-year expectations.

Danisco rose as much as 10.9%, the biggest intraday jump since May 27, and gained 29.5 Kroner, or 10.6%, to 307.25 kroner. The shares have added 40% this year giving the company a market value of 14.4 billion kroner ($2.85 billion).

Danisco said growth was helped by its Cultures division, which makes microorganisms used for cheeses, and its US-based Genencor unit, which produces enzymes for biofuel. The company raised its net income forecast for the 12 months ending April 30 to "slightly above" 700 million kroner from 650 million kroner previously, and said cost plans are starting to work.

FINLAND

The OMX in Helsinki finished the week at 6,612.73, down 0.3% for Friday.

Waertsilae Oyj, whose motors propel one in three of the world's vessels, may cut jobs and output of ship engines further as the Finnish company braces for the unit's first decline in revenue for six years.

"Regardless of what happens, we will most probably see a decline in sales next year," Chief Executive Officer Ole Johansson said in an interview. "I don't believe anything could happen soon enough to change that overall assumption."

Management will decide later this year or early in 2010 whether to cut additional jobs, extending beyond the possible 450 announced in May, Johansson said. The unit generates one- third of the Helsinki-based company's 4.6 billion Euros ($6.7 billion) in total revenue.

Waertsilae's cutbacks mirror those in boat yards around the world as the shipbuilding industry bears the brunt of a slowdown in trade. A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S and Frontline Ltd. are among container and tanker operators revising vessel orders as lease rates collapse. Ship power orders at Waertsilae, which also makes power plants, plunged 86% in the second quarter.

By July, about 800 million Euros iWaertsilae gained as much as 1.81 Euros, or 6.7%, to 29.03 Euros, the highest since May 11, and was up 6.5% as of 2:21 p.m. in Helsinki. The shares have increased 38% this year, valuing the company at 2.86 billion Euros.

Demand for Waertsilae's power plants and maintenance services is more robust and there are a "good number" of utility projects in negotiation or just awaiting financing, the CEO said. Those divisions will help cushion sales and profit during the current shipping slump, he said.

The chief executive predicted order levels for marine engines will remain low "for quite a while."

"Owners and shipyards alike will try to postpone the delivery of ships they have on order as they cannot see them being employed for any particular purpose right now," Johansson said in the interview at Waertsilae's Helsinki head office.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, accounting for about 40% of global oil supply, have cut output by 4% this year, according to Bloomberg estimates. Over the same period, the fleet of in-service crude oil carriers expanded 5.3%.

Waertsilae last year moved its ship-power unit's senior management to Shanghai as Asia became the heart of volume shipbuilding at the expense of European yards. Asian yards built 54% of the world's new vessels last year, while Europeans made 17%, according to data compiled by Waertsilae.

"The Asian shipbuilders, relatively speaking, will come out even stronger than before," Johansson said. "The post- crisis Waertsilae also needs to be different to sort of mirror this phenomenon."

Finnish lift maker Kone stuck to its 2009 outlook on Wednesday citing healthy demand in Asia and its services unit.

Chief executive Matti Alahuhta told a seminar the company expected 2009 sales growth of 2-5% and underlying earnings to rise to 570-595 million Euros ($837-874 million).

"Our outlook for this year is that the good development in the service market will continue, the level of modernisation will be at around last year's level, and the market for new equipment will weaken, but at a slower pace," Alahuhta said.

Alahuhta said Kone's services and modernisation businesses were developing favourably in China, and it was "quite confident" the European and North American modernisation markets would be flat year-on-year.

"The market share of Asia and Pacific is continuously growing ... which feeds our services business," he said.

He said cash flow at a record high of 371 million Euros in the January-June period was not a trend he expected to continue. "We do not forecast that the same tough pace will continue throughout the rest of the year."

Oil company Lotos, which is the owner of the ailing oil processing firm Lotos Jaslo, is looking for new revenue streams for its subsidiary. In order to put the company back on track it has signed an agreement with Finnish investor Eco-Stream concerning regeneration of waste vegetable oil.

No details of the agreement were, as of yet, officially disclosed.

"The construction of the waste vegetable oil regeneration plant will cost almost €30 million. The financing is to be ensured by the Finns. In addition we will both earmark zl.25 million on launching production. From the regenerated oils we will be producing bases for the production of grease oils, fuel oils and bituminous components," said a person engaged in the project.

The construction of the plant is to commence early next year and is to last 18 months. Production is planned for H2 of 2011. In the new Polish-Finnish venture, 60% of shares will belong to the Finnish investor.

The head of the Finnish steelmaker Rautaruukki was quoted as saying the industry faces a slow recovery from the recession.

'The freefall has stopped and demand has leveled off at pretty low levels compared to where we were,' CEO Sakari Tamminen, said in a interview with Bloomberg. 'We need to be prepared for a slow recovery.'

'The big question now is when will end-user demand develop and at what level the recovery will be when it takes place. Uncertainty in financing is still there and affecting especially investment decisions,' Tamminen added.

NORWAY

Oslo's OBX Bourse closed out Friday at 295.63, one of the few regional markets to make any gains, up 0.11% on the day.

Telenor expects to resume dividend payments for the full year 2010, which will be payable in 2011, the Norwegian telecom operator said in notes to investors published ahead of its capital markets day Tuesday.

The company said it has no capacity for any dividend payout for the full year 2009, and added there is little room for share buybacks in the mid-term.

Telenor said its funding position is healthy; it has committed credit lines of 26 billion Norwegian kroner ($4.4 billion) and uncommitted credit lines of NOK56 billion.

Indian operator Unitech Wireless, in which Telenor recently bought a majority stake, will get long-term financing in 2010, it added.

Nordic markets have been only moderately hurt by the economic recession, Telenor said.

Telenor expects mid-term revenue growth to be driven by Asia, and added that it expects capital expenditure as a proportion of sales to fall.

The boards of directors of Det norske oljeselskap ASA and Aker Exploration ASA have approved the merger plan that specifies the further merger process between the two companies.

On 24 August 2009, the boards of directors of Det norske oljeselskap ASA (DETNOR) and Aker Exploration ASA (AKX) entered into an integration agreement. On 16 September 2009, the companies' boards of directors entered into the merger plan which specifies the further merger process.

The agreed conversion ratio will remain as announced. i.e. DETNOR's shareholders will receive 82% of the shares of the merged company, while AKX's shareholders will receive 18%. No material amendments have been made to other announced terms of the merger. Hence, Det norske shareholders will receive 1.403328 shares in Aker Exploration for every share in Det norske.

The two companies will submit notice to extraordinary general meetings where the shareholders will be invited to vote for approval of the proposed merger. The general meetings will be held no later than a month after the merger plan is dispatched to the shareholders of the companies. The dispatch is expected to be done immediately. An information memorandum approved by Oslo Børs is aimed to be disclosed by week 40.

The merger is expected to be registered and completed within year 2009.The merged company will be named Det norske oljeselskap ASA. It is a premise for the merger that the shares of the merged company will resume trading on the Oslo Børs. Aker ASA will be the largest shareholder in the company, holding approximately 30% of its shares.

The merger between Det norske and Aker Exploration unites two Norwegian exploration companies that have each succeeded in building up sizeable licence portfolios on the Norwegian continental shelf over the past few years. The merged company will be the second largest oil company on the Norwegian continental shelf by a good margin in terms operatorships and exploration activity. The combined company will be operator for 32 licences and it will have a total of 70 licences in its portfolio.

The nomination committee of Det norske, assigned as nomination body for selection of the board of directors to the merged company pursuant to the integration agreement, proposes the following board members: Kjell Inge Røkke (chairman of the board), Berge Gerdt Larsen, Maria Moræus Hanssen, Hege Sjo and Kaare M. Gisvold.

SPAIN

Madrid's IBEX finished the week at 11,777.30, up just 0.05% for the session.

Debt rating agency Standard & Poors said it has cut its rating for hybrid capital instruments, which include preferential shares, issued by Spain's second largest savings bank Caja Madrid after running a stress test.

The agency cut Caja Madrid's rating to BB from BBB- citing concerns of dividend payment suspension on the instruments due to rising pressure on operating performance, especially in 2010.

The savings bank issued some 3 billion Euros ($4.39 billion) in preferential shares earlier this year.

Caja Madrid reported a nonperforming loan ratio of 5.6% at the end of June, compared with a 5.0% average for the savings bank sector.[

Spain's Inditex, Europe's largest clothing retailer, said Wednesday it would start selling its flagship Zara brand clothes over the Internet later this year in selected European markets.

"Zara will start online sales for the autumn/winter 2010 season. Initially the online sales will be launched in Spain, France, Germany, UK, Italy and Portugal, to be followed by the progressive rollout in all Zara markets," it said in a statement.

Inditex chief executive Pablo Isla called the move "an important strategic step" which was in line with the company's "constant daily search to offer the best service to clients worldwide."

The company experimented recently with Internet sales with its Zara home products.

Sweden's H&M, Europe?s second-largest clothing retailer, already sells its products online in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands while the Gap Inc., the largest US group, does the same in its home market.

Inditex's move comes at a time of declining retail sales in Spain, which accounts for about one-third of the company's sales, amid a rapid rise in unemployment.

The retailer, whose other brands include Massimo Dutti and Bershka, posted Wednesday a first-half net profit of 375 million Euros (548 million Dollars), an 8.0% decline over the same period last year.

Sales rose 7.0% to 4.86 billion Euros in the six months.

Inditex opened 166 outlets during the first half, taking the total to 4,430 in 73 countries, saying it maintained "rapid growth" in Asia where it is expanding in the fast-growing Chinese and Indian markets.

China is now home to more than 50 stores.

Travel-reservations company Amadeus IT Group SA is considering an initial public offering in what would be one of the biggest IPOs since the financial crisis hit markets, people familiar with the situation said.

The company, controlled by private-equity firms BC Partners and Cinven Group Ltd., has retained investment bank Rothschild as an adviser for a planned offering of a 30% stake in the company, these people said Thursday.

Founded in 1987 and based in Madrid, Amadeus is a technology provider to the travel industry. It is the biggest provider by number of airline bookings in the world, according to its Web site. Amadeus declined to comment.

Rothschild has invited several investment banks to help coordinate a potential initial public offering, said one banker who had received an invitation. Banks have until the middle of next week to make proposals on how much they believe they can place with investors in a listing.

No final decision has been made, and a listing wouldn't be carried out until next year, people close to the sellers said.

Amadeus would be the first and largest private-equity offering for well over a year, the last one being First Reserve Corp.'s $2.5 billion listing of Czech miner New World Resources in May 2008, according to Dealogic.

Amadeus was taken private four years ago in a €4.34 billion ($6.39 billion) takeover led by the two European buyout firms. They now control 52.76% of Amadeus.

One person said Amadeus could be valued as high as €8 billion, though others said that figure may be too high.

The company generated revenue of €2.86 billion in 2008, up 2.2% from a year earlier. Its travel bookings fell 2.1% to €526.6 million in the period, hurt by a slump in travel due to the global financial crisis. This trend continued into this year, with bookings down 9.1% on the year in the first quarter, according to Amadeus's last financial statement.

PORTUGAL

The PSI General in Lisbon closed Friday's session at 2,879.59, down 0.17%.

Shares in Portugal Telecom rose after a block portfolio readjustment of 62 million shares -- 6.9% of the company's share capital -- by one of its main shareholders, Banco Espirito Santo.

The operation was executed by Banco Espirito Santo's investment arm and seems to be related to an intra-group portfolio re-arrangement of the bank's stake in PT.

The block re-adjustment of the 62 million shares was done at 7.515 Euros per share.

Portugal's Attorney General's office is investigating allegations that the Angolan government paid €104 million to buy a shareholding in Portuguese bank Banif but never received any shares, officials have said.

Ambassador Jose Marcos Barrica, Angola's envoy to Lisbon, told the Lusa News Agency last week Portugal's prosecution service is investigating a complaint by the Luanda government that it never received any of Banif shares it paid for.

Luanda says it bought a 49% stake in the Madeira-based bank.

Stocks in Energias de Portugal rose to 12-month highs after Angolan state oil company Sonangol reaffirms its interest in acquiring a stake in the Portuguese utility.

"It's not just the Sonangol interest in buying the stake, but also the joint business opportunities that can open up," a dealer in Lisbon says.

Sonangol CEO Manuel Vicente said late on Wednesday that although there are currently no talks on the company buying a minority stake in EDP, the move "would be a possibility of major interest."

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index fell 99.04, or 0.4%, to 23,483.87 in Milan. The gauge gained 1.9% this week.

Arnoldo Mondadori Editore added 7.5 cents, or 2.3%, to 3.37 Euros, the highest in more than seven months. Gruppo Banca Leonardo lifted its price estimate on the publisher controlled by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to 3.9 Euros from 3.4 Euros. The brokerage, which kept a "buy" rating, expects Mondadori "to surprise positively on costs and thanks to important launches in the book division."

The brokerage also upgraded Caltagirone Editore SpA to "buy" from "underweight." Caltagirone Editore climbed 17 cents, or 8.4%, to 2.2 Euros.

Digital Multimedia Technologies soared 1.03 Euros, or 10%, to 11.1 Euros. UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking, which cited a two-day road show in London with the company, reiterated a "buy" recommendation on the Italian maker of television broadcasting infrastructure.

Enel advanced for an eighth session, adding 4.5 cents, or 1.1%, to 4.34 Euros. Italy's biggest utility was raised to "outperform" from "underperform" at Cheuvreux. The brokerage cited "better liquidity, easing refinancing risk and lower pressure from credit agencies."

Fiat declined 17.5 cents, or 1.9%, to 8.85 Euros, snapping a two-day gain. Kepler Capital Markets recommended reducing exposure to the automobiles & auto parts industry.

Pirelli & C. slid 0.9% to 37.75 cents.

Interpump advanced 21.5 cents, or 5.2%, to 4.33 Euros, extending gains of 10% yesterday. Exane BNP Paribas upgraded the world's biggest maker of high- performance pumps to "outperform" from "neutral," citing an "improved macro outlook" and the stock's underperformance.

Landi Renzo gained 10.25 cents, or 3.3%, to 3.25 Euros, after the Italian maker of injection systems for alternative fuels said in a statement that it signed a supply agreement with Bayerische Motoren Werke AG.

Luxottica rose for a fourth day, adding 36 cents, or 2%, to 18.06 Euros. The world's biggest maker of eyeglasses said it will distribute a dividend of 22 Euro cents a share, according to a statement after the closing of the market. The company also said it will start its buyback program on Sept. 21, the statement said.

Mediobanca added 28 cents, or 2.9%, to 10.05 Euros. Italy's biggest publicly traded investment bank posted a net loss of 37 million Euros in the fiscal fourth quarter ending June 30, compared with net income of 230 million Euros a year earlier, the Milan-based bank said. That beat the 44 million-Euro median estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The bank said its planned capital increase will help the investment bank take advantage of growth opportunities.

RCS MediaGroup fell 3.8 cents, or 2.7%, to 1.39 Euros after gaining as much as 4.5%. Kepler Capital Markets reiterated a "reduce" rating, saying that "the only way out of the unsustainable debt would be a massive share capital increase."

Tiscali rose 21.5 cents, or 6.6%, to 3.49 Euros, the biggest gain in three weeks. The Italian phone and Internet company will begin its planned capital increase by Christmas, founder Renato Soru said. "A capital increase is always an opportunity for possible new investors," Chief Executive Officer Mario Rosso said today. "Let the market decide. I'm confident in the market."

Vincenzo Zucchi climbed 4.5 cents, or 8.2%, to 59.5 cents, after surging 22% yesterday. The Italian maker of household fabrics said it signed an agreement to refinance debt for 133 million Euros.

GREECE

The Athex in Athens finished the week Friday at 2,555.37, up 0.31% for the session.

The chief executive of Greek gaming firm OPAP said on Friday he had turned down his appointment by Greece's outgoing conservative government to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for political reasons.

Government sources told Reuters on Thursday that the CEO of Europe's biggest gambling company would be appointed at the IMF but in a bourse filing on Friday Christos Hadjiemmanuil said he was staying put.

"As we are in the middle of a pre-election period ... under the current circumstances, I am not in a position to accept my appointment," he said.

Greece will hold a snap parliamentary election on Oct. 4, with socialists maintaining a wide lead in polls.

Greek Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling said on Friday it planned a recapitalisation which will result in a capital return of about 548 million Euros ($ 806 million) or 1.50 Euro per share to shareholders.

It said the record date for the transaction will be announced in due course.

"Given the company's strong cash generation and positive view of its free cash flow over the medium term, a capital return is the most appropriate way to return cash to shareholders in the current environment," said Chief Executive Doros Constantinou in a statement.

CCH, the world's second largest bottler of Coke drinks, said the recapitalisation would be financed through a combination of accumulated cash and new debt.

CCH's board endorsed the plan, the company said, citing favourable conditions in the debt capital markets and the potential to reduce the group's WACC (weighted average cost of capital) by improving capital structure.

An extraordinary shareholders meeting will take place Oct. 16 to approve the increase in the par value of the shares by an amount of about 548 million via a capitalisation of reserves.

National Bank of Greece, the country's largest lender, said it sold all its treasury stock for 11.03 million Euros.

The bank sold 515,199 shares at a price of 21.40 Euros each, management said in a statement.

"Accordingly, the bank no longer holds treasury stock," NBG said.

Beyond Greece, Athens-quoted National Bank (www.nbg.gr) has an established presence in Romania, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, Turkey and Cyprus.

Greek shipping company Navios Maritime Partners LP said Thursday it plans to sell 2.8 million common shares in a public offering and use the proceeds to expand its fleet.

Navios will give underwriters the option to buy an additional 420,000 common shares to cover any overallotments.

Citi and JPMorgan are the book-running managers. S. Goldman Advisors LLC and DVB Capital Markets are co-managers.

The company currently has about 24.8 million common shares outstanding. In May, Navios sold 3.5 million common shares in a separate offering.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsAutonomy was among the talking points on Friday as the FTSE 100 crept to a sixth straight gain.

Shares in the software maker climbed to their highest level since 2001 after a push from Goldman Sachs, which added the group to its "conviction buy" list.

"Autonomy is the premier strategic asset in the sector in our view, given its unique technology in a segment with high barriers to entry and could appeal to a large platform vendor in the context of sector consolidation," Goldman told clients.

Other brokers were mistrustful of Goldman's note, which came ahead of Autonomy's third-quarter results next month.

Evolution Securities, in a sales desk note, guessed the upgrade came after Autonomy "pretty much confirmed" it would beat lowered guidance. But year-end targets looked tough to meet and concerns about cash flow remained, it said.

Astaire Securities was also revisiting concerns about Autonomy's revenue recognition, which it concluded had exaggerated past growth.

"We think the market is far too optimistic about what is achievable in terms of sales in the second half of the year," Astaire said. Autonomy closed 2.9% higher at £15.74.

Expiring options left the wider market subdued, but the FTSE 100 still edged to its highest point in nearly a year, rising 0.2%, or 8.94 points, to 5,172.89. The index finished with a 3.2% gain for the week.

Kingfisher led Friday's blue-chip risers on a positive response to Thursday's interim results, the key points of which had been released in error a week before.

SocGen, repeating "buy" advice, said the detail lent confidence that a recovery would prove sustainable. It set a 300p target on the stock, which climbed 4.2% to 211¾p.

Standard Life rose 1.8% to 282¾p after Goldman added the insurer to its "buy" list.

Leading property stocks were higher. British Land gained 3.3% to 528p after completing the sale of half its Broadgate development to Blackstone. Hammerson followed, gaining 2.6% to 439½p after SocGen upgraded.

But Great Portland Estates lost 2.5% to 280½p after property director Robert Noel resigned to join rival Land Securities.

Credit Suisse called the defection a "material blow for Great Portland" as Mr Noel was one of three directors ultimately responsible for its success through the boom years.

Separately, SocGen started coverage on Great Portland with a "sell" rating. The shares were reflecting a past performance that was unlikely to be repeated in a much tougher property market, it argued.

Profit-taking sent Tullow Oil lower by 5.3% to £11.79 after Patrick Plunkett, chairman, cut his stake by about a quarter with the sale of 250,000 shares. Citigroup agreed that it was time to take profit in Tullow, downgrading its rating to "hold". The stock had gained as much as 14% this week on positive drilling news.

Among the midcaps, continued bid hopes lifted Wellstream by 4.6% to 700p. The maker of flexible pipes for oilfields has been mooted as a target both for Saipem, an industry peer, and for leading customers such a Petrobras.

RBS analysts said a combination with Saipem would make sense but noted the positive influence of recent finds in offshore Brazil, Wellstream's key market.

Persistent theories of bid interest sent Mouchel, the engineering consultant, higher by 11.2% to 246p. Dealers also pointed to Balfour Beatty's acquisition this week of US peer Parsons Brinckerhoff.

BlueBay Asset Management lost 5.4% to 298p after management sold 5.6m shares in a secondary placing priced at 290p.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum jumped 17.5% to 85p after it gained an adviser and lost a broker.

The group said it had appointed an independent adviser to assess its key prospect in Kurdistan - a move that revived bid speculation among its largely retail shareholder base.

Soon after, Gulf Keystone admitted that it had parted company with its nominated adviser RBC Capital markets.

This second piece of news had been prompted by Frank Timis, founder of Regal Petroleum, who had mentioned RBC's resignation during an interview.

Mr Timis also claimed to have picked up a "large" stake in Gulf Keystone with a view to selling it later for 150p. It was the third time in as many days that Mr Timis had moved markets after his claims that Regal was about to announce oil finds in Ukraine and African Minerals, a company he chairs, was in advanced takeover talks.

Regal closed down 0.9% to 116p and African Minerals was 0.3% higher at 383p.

Cineworld lost 7.3% to 166p after largest shareholder Blackstone sold more than half its stake at 165p a share.

Goldshield, the drugmaker, rose 7.3% to 448p. After the close of trade, Israel's Fuhrer family said it had agreed a cash offer of 440p a share.

Vague talk of takeover interest helped push up Laird, the electronics maker, 14.4% to 223p.

Troubled Brazilian gold miner Serabi Mining rallied 44.3% to 2.3p after sector specialist Steven Poulton raised his stake to 4%.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Tokyo stocks closed lower Friday as prominent consumer lender Aiful said it was preparing to apply for debt rehabilitation procedures, jolting the market. Many shares trimmed their losses late on short-covering, however, before Japan's upcoming five-day holiday.

Aiful shares remained untraded amid a wash of sell orders after the ailing firm said it will ask its creditors to delay repayment of nearly $3 billion in loans. The stock ended the day ask-only, limit-down at Y134, 27% below Thursday's close. Shares fell a total of 44% this week.

Aiful-induced weakness clearly sapped the broader market's strength, but stocks closed well off their lows. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average ended down 73.26 points, or 0.7%, to 10,370.54. The index lost 0.7% this week, and has fallen 1.2% so far this month.

Year-to-date, stocks are still up 17%, however.

The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues ended slightly lower, down 0.08 point at 939.44. Trading volume was somewhat high at about 2.3 billion shares.

The Topix "other financial business" subindex, which includes consumer lenders, was the worst performer on the board, posting a 2.3% decline after selling off as much as 9.2% intraday. Acom ended up 4.2% at Y1,575 after briefly sinking 9.0% in the morning, while Promise ended down 0.8% at Y599, well above its intraday low of Y520.

Takefuji dropped 9.5% to Y420, while leasing firm Orix lost 4.3% to Y5,740.

Major bank stocks ended higher after falling early, finishing up 0.9% as a group. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group rose 2.1% to Y3,430, while Mitsubishi UFJ financial Group gained 2.5% to Y529.

Real estate stocks also weakened after July land prices in major Japanese cities were shown to have declined for the first time in four years, according to a land ministry report. Mitsui Fudosan lost 2.3% to Y1,707.

Bucking the broader market's decline, East Japan Railway surged 4% to Y6,460, helped by a share price target hike by Deutsche Securities to Y7,670.

December Nikkei 225 futures ended down 40 points, or 0.4%, at 10,340 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

SOUTH KOREA

Seoul shares posted their biggest weekly gain in 1-½ months on Friday, powered by heavy foreign buying as global index compiler FTSE will give South Korea's share market developed market status, beginning on Monday.

Foreign investors led the buying spree for an eleventh consecutive day, snapping up SK Energy and Daewoo Shipbuilding, and made their net purchases the largest for a single day since early October, 2007.

South Korea has been up to now grouped as an advanced emerging market by the FTSE, which offers benchmark indexes for pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and other fund managers.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index edged up 0.25% to 1,699.71 points, the highest close since late June 2008, although off its session high of 1,713.22.

On the week, it gained 2.9%, the biggest weekly rise since the last week of July when it advanced 3.6%.

Shares in SK Energy, the country's top refiner, trimmed gains to end up 2.6% to 117,000 won, amid expectations about refining margin improvement and its plan to churn out rechargeable batteries.

Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, the world's No. 3 shipbuilder, rose 3.9%.

But trade held to a tight range, with local institutions facing heavy redemption calls as the past six-month rally increased investors' desire to cash in on the gains, amid concerns about the negative impact of the strengthened won on exporters.

Hyundai Motor turned lower to close down 1.8%, after it unveiled a new model of its flagship mid-sized sedan with stylish exterior and more features on Thursday. .

Signs of the global economic recovery also have been behind active foreign buying.

But the lack of fresh money inflows into local equity funds would make it challenging for the KOSPI to consolidate above 1,700 points, a psychologically important barrier, analysts say. The stronger won will put another brake on the stock market rally after the local currency scaled an 11-month high against the Dollar on Thursday.

Hanwha Corp, a gunpowder maker and trading firm, was the biggest gainer on the day, hitting its 16-month peak.

The stock rose 7.3% after news it and another South Korean company had received a 152.1 million Euro ($224 million) order from Greece's Attiko Metro AE.

Shares in Daewoo International advanced 4.7%, with its major shareholders, including a state-run debt clearer, preparing to sell a stake in the energy developer.

Korea Electric Power Corp (KEPCO) gained 1.3%, coming off its 19-month high touched during the day, reflecting hopes the government would introduce a fuel cost-adjusted tariff system in 2011.

Samsung Securities said in a research note on Thursday the new tariff system, if adopted, should make earnings at the state-run utility more stable, raising its target price.

The ministry overseeing KEPCO could not immediately be reached for comment.

Brokerage companies mostly retreated, even after the finance ministry said on Friday it would push back the introduction of transaction taxes on exchange traded funds to 2012 from next April. Mirae Asset shed 1.8%.

Local institutions sold a net 1.1 trillion won worth of shares and individual investors unloaded a net 239 billion won.

Advancers led decliners 460 to 344, with 79 counters ending flat.

A total of 492.6 million shares valued at 8.6 trillion won changed hands, compared with 517.6 million shares worth 8.9 trillion won on Thursday.

The KOSPI 200 December futures index fell 0.50 point to 222.15, while the KOSPI 200 spot index inched up 0.03 point at 222.34.

The junior Kosdaq market finished up 0.64% at 531.53 points.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong's benchmark index ended down Friday due to profit-taking pressure, following two sessions of solid gains, but flush liquidity and an improved global economic outlook moderated the decline.

Analysts said they expect heavy profit-taking pressure for the blue-chip index given its recent gains, though they added the modest size of Friday's pullback could suggest a positive near-term trend.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 145.06 points, or 0.7%, to 21,623.45 after earlier hitting an intraday high of 21765.98. Turnover fell to HK$73.32 billion, from HK$84.66 billion Thursday.

Analysts also expect the completion of several major initial public offerings to boost market liquidity, which will add impetus to the benchmark index's rise.

Metallurgical Corp. of China, the country's biggest metallurgical engineering company, recently raised a total US$5.13 billion from IPOs in Shanghai and Hong Kong, in the world's second-biggest IPO this year.

Meanwhile, Sinopharm Group, China's largest pharmaceutical products distributor by sales, raised HK$8.73 billion in its IPO this week.

Among major commodities plays, China Shenhua Energy fell 1.1% to HK$35.45, Chalco dropped 1.5% at HK$9.38, and Zhaojin Mining declined 1.2% to HK$14.78.

Property developer Poly Hong Kong rose 15.5% to HK$9.02, its highest level since Nov. 7, 2007, lifted by news the company plans to sell a 2.3% stake to China's sovereign-wealth fund for HK$409 million. It also plans to sell shares to its parent in exchange for six property projects.

CHINA

Investors took profit in steel companies and financial companies Friday as the benchmark index neared a strong technical resistance, sending China's shares sharply lower after rising to a five-week closing high Thursday.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended down 3.2%, or 97.59 points, at 2962.67, after hitting an intraday low of 2940.83. The index ended down 1% on the week.

The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 3.3% to 1030.10.

Trading volume for the Shanghai Composite Index rose to CNY184 billion ($27.1 billion) from CNY181 billion Thursday.

Analysts said the Shanghai index will likely consolidate around the key 3000 level next week as investors will likely retreat to the sidelines ahead of the week-long National Day holiday.

China's National Day holiday starts Oct. 1.

In addition to the Shanghai index's rise toward technical resistance at the 60-day moving average of 3086.24, profit-taking by institutional investors also pressured the market, analysts said.

People's Bank of China Vice Gov. Su Ning said Thursday the central bank will maintain its moderately loose monetary policy for the remainder of this year and into next year, according to a report on the Economic Observer newspaper's Web site.

Steel companies were among the biggest decliners. Wuhan Iron & Steel dropped 5.8% to CNY8.00 after rising 1.6% Thursday, while Maanshan Iron & Steel declined 5.3% to CNY4.69 after gaining 0.8% in the previous session.

Financial companies were also hit by profit-taking. China Merchants Bank fell 3.8% to CNY15.27 after rising 1.2% Thursday, while Bank of Communications ended 3.9% lower at CNY8.80 after gaining 1.2% in the previous session.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stocks rose 0.66% to a near 15-month closing high on Friday, as continued optimism over the global economic recovery helped boost LCD stocks including Chi Mei.

The main TAIEX share index ended the session up 49.25 points at 7,526.55, its strongest close since June 27 last year.

Taiwan's top LCD maker AU Optronics rose 2.04%, while smaller rival Chi Mei closed up 4.32% after a local newspaper reported that Chi Mei was considering restarting work at a next-generation factory.

Turnover was thin at T$113 billion ($3.5 billion), with some investors staying away after losses on Wall Street overnight.

Other gainers included the biotechnology sub-index, which rose 1.95% as local media continued to play up fears over the H1N1 flu pandemic.

Apex Biotech was up 3%, while Excelsior rose 5.95%.

The Taiwanese market has climbed more than 63% this year, and is currently the third-best performing index among thirty tracked by Thomson Reuters, just behind China's Shenzhen and Shanghai share indexes.

Investors have been betting that closer ties with the island's giant neighbour China and a rebound in consumer demand in the United States, its second-largest export market by country, would be good for Taiwan's export-reliant companies.

This month alone, Taiwan stocks have risen over 10%, with a relative strength index (RSI) reading of 64 and inching closer towards overbought territory. An RSI reading of above 70 is typically taken to mean that a share is overbought.

THE PHILIPPINES

Philippine share prices on Friday bucked the generally gloomy mood in global stocks to post slight gains for the second consecutive session.

The bellwether 30-company Philippine Stock Exchange index rose 17.36 points or 0.6263% to 2,789.33 while the broader all shares climbed 12.48 points or 0.6983% to 1,799.57.

Investors picked up bargain stocks following the sizable declines in previous sessions, analysts said.

Market breadth was positive with 64 gainers against 33 losers and 62 stocks which closed unchanged.

Five of the six sectoral indices advanced, led by mining and oil's 1.5232-percent leap and industrial's 1.4568-percent rise.

The holding firms index was the sole negative factor, retreating 0.1153%.

Volume traded reached 2.843 billion stocks worth P2.583 billion.

In the local market, telecommunications giant Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., the day's top-traded, leaped P25 or 1.087% to P2,325. It cornered 11.74% of the market.

Gaming firm Philweb Corp. skidded P0.015 or 10.7143% to P0.125.

Manila Electric Co., the sole power distributor in Metro Manila, plunged P4 or 2.2989% to P170.

Developer Megaworld Corp. jumped P0.04 or 2.6316% to P1.56.

Alternative power producer PNOC-Energy Development Corp. was steady at P4.70.

SINGAPORE

Singapore shares closed 0.92% lower Friday in line with other regional markets as investors took profits ahead of a long weekend, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index fell 24.69 points to 2,647.91 on volume of 2.18 billion shares worth S$1.94 billion (US$1.38 billion).

Decliners eclipsed gainers 278 to 221, with 742 issues unchanged.

The stock market will be closed on Monday for a national holiday and will reopen on Tuesday.

'There's a slight tug-of-war going on between the bulls and the bears, although there's not much action as the volume is not there,' a local house trader said.

Banking stocks were down, with DBS falling 32 cents to 13.16, United Overseas Bank declining 38 cents to 16.62 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp easing one cent to 7.82.

Property stocks also tumbled. CapitaLand dropped eight cents to 3.65, Keppel Land retreated four cents to 2.63 and City Developments lost 18 cents to 10.20.

Singapore Airlines closed six cents lower at 13.54 and Singapore Telecom finished four cents down at 3.13.

MALAYSIA

Malaysian shares closed up 0.20% today led by gains in construction, finance and government-led companies, dealers said.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index gained 2.4 points to 1,221.20. Advancers outpaced losers 380 to 224.

"Profit-taking ahead of the long weekend dominated trade but last-hour buying interest from local funds helped to push the benchmark into positive territory," a dealer at a bank-backed brokerage told Dow Jones Newswires.

Among gainers, leading bank Maybank added 1.1% to RM6.68 ringgit and gaming group Genting was up 1.4% at RM7.20.

On the downside, plantation giant IOI Corp lost 1.3% to RM5.30 while state-controlled power firm Tenaga slipped 1.2% to RM8.23.

INDONESIA

Jakarta's Composite Index was closed Friday for a Public Holiday.

THAILAND

In Bangkok the SET ended Friday up 0.67% at 713.67.

The outperformers included third-largest cement firm TPI Polene, which jumped 8.3%, and auto parts maker AAPICO Hitech, which gained 2.5%.

INDIA

Indian shares traded volatile to end slightly higher Friday as wary investors exercised caution ahead of a long weekend.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index was up 0.2%, or 30.19 points, to 16,741.30, with 18 of the 30 index constituents ending higher. The index, which has risen 2.9% this week, traded between 16,610.05 and 16,765.03 during the day.

The Sensex has risen 8.5% over the past 10 sessions from its Sept. 3 close of 15,398.33 - its lowest close so far this month. The index has more than doubled from its March 6 low of 8,047.17.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty closed up 10.50 points, or 0.2%, at 4,976.05.

Indian markets will be closed Monday for a local holiday.

Total traded volume on the Bombay Stock Exchange fell to INR62.73 billion, from INR93.93 billion Thursday. Gainers beat decliners 1,394 to 1,358, while 94 stocks were unchanged.

Investors lapped up shares of Reliance Infrastructure after the stock lagged the Sensex by more than 5% in the past month. Reliance Infrastructure rose 4.5% to INR1,243.15.

Auto stocks extended gains for a second day, with Maruti gaining 5.2% to end at INR1,640.85, Mahindra & Mahindra climbed 1.8% to INR885 and Hero Honda rose 0.9% to INR1,678.50.

ICICI, India's largest private lender, fell 3.4% to INR843.35, while HDFC Bank was down 0.8% at INR1,523.60.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market retreated slightly Friday, with BHP doing most of the damage after Wall Street lost momentum and commodity prices eased overnight.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 21.7 points or 0.5% at 4693.2 after falling as low as 4658.5.

The index finished up 2.0% for the week, after hitting an 11-month high of 4749.7 on Thursday.

Friday's volume was heavy, at more than A$7.7 billion, owing to a rebalancing of the FTSE Developed Asia ex-Japan index, as well as the S&P indexes, at Friday's close.

Despite concerns that the FTSE index rebalancing could see up to A$5 billion worth of funds removed from Australian equities, buyers easily soaked up the extra liquidity.

BHP fell 2.3% to A$38.70, accounting for more than half the fall in the S&P/ASX 200.

Also weighing on the index, Woodside fell 1.8% to A$50.65, Newcrest fell 2.8% to A$34.25, Brambles fell 3.0% to A$7.79 and Commonwealth Bank fell 0.4% to A$49.09.

On the positive front, ANZ Bank rose 1.4% to A$23.18, National Australia Bank rose 1.1% to A$29.86, GPT rose 7.0% or 4.5 cents to A$0.685 and Origin Energy rose 3.2% to A$15.69.

Qantas rose 3.7% to A$2.78 after RBS upgraded it to Buy.

Some traders said they expected a further pullback on Wall Street tonight after better-than-expected economic data failed to prevent profit-taking Thursday.

In the coal-seam gas sector, Arrow Energy rose 3.3% to A$4.40 on news late Thursday that Golar LNG reached agreement with Toyota Tsusho to buy liquefied natural gas from the proposed Fisherman's Landing project at Gladstone, for which Arrow has an option to take a 20% stake.

"This might finally start silencing the skeptics," said a broker at a mid-tier Perth-based stockbroking company.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares ended flat Friday after turning into positive territory in late buying, led by investment company Guinness Peat Group and Auckland Airport.

Suzanne Kinnaird, an adviser at Forsyth Barr, said that investors continue to look for value and remain focussed on high dividend paying stocks.

GPG rose 6% to NZ$0.89, pacing late market gains. The stock has recently been sold down heavily, but brokers say a turnaround at its UK Coats unit is helping to drive demand.

Overall, they say the market is consolidating after strong gains recently.

The NZX-50 gained 0.1%, or 3.66 points, to 3156.46 after earlier falling as much as 0.4%. The market gained 0.5% on the week.

Auckland Airport rose 2.8% to NZ$1.85 on some institutional buying. Elsewhere, cyclical stocks continued to draw interest in sympathy with recent uptick in global sentiment.

Children's clothing retailer Pumpkin Patch advanced 3.1% to NZ$1.99, and jewelry retailer Michael Hill tacked on 1.3% to NZ$0.76.

The high New Zealand Dollar had a mixed influence on the market, but Kinnaird said over time the local currency will have a negative impact.

Seafood exporter Sanford fell 3% to NZ$4.85, and whitegoods maker Fisher & Paykel Appliances managed to close steady at NZ$0.80.

Bellwether Telecom fell 2.6% to NZ$2.67. The company has struggled to gain traction since the government said it will go ahead with a NZ$1.5 billion broadband plan, which raised questions on whether Telecom would be able to participate.
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesGold dominated trading this week with bullion inching towards its record high of $1,030.80 a troy ounce set in March 2008.

It reached $1,023.85 on Thursday but was back to $1,012 on Friday, up 0.7% on the week. It found support from Dollar weakness and concerns about the outlook for inflation.

Meanwhile, gold producers, the market's natural sellers, now want exposure to the rising gold price and have unwound virtually all of their earlier agreements to sell their future production. This extended positioning has fuelled concerns that prices could be vulnerable to a correction.

The US natural gas market was a illustration of how violently prices can move when speculators get squeezed. Nymex October Henry Hub gas rose 23.2% to $3.648 per million British thermal units this week even though US gas stocks have risen to near-record levels and storage is virtually exhausted. Winter heating demand will not begin for several weeks.

Nymex October West Texas Intermediate oil fell 43 cents to $72.04 a barrel on Friday, up 3.9% this week. ICE November Brent lost 23 cents to close at $71.32, up 5.36% on the week, helped by signs an economic recovery was gathering momentum.

In base metals, copper slid 2.5% to $6,170 a tonne as traders warned poor Chinese buying interest had increased the possibility of a price correction.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Dollar fell to fresh one-year lows this week as rising risk appetite stemmed haven demand for the US currency.

Continued improvement in sentiment encouraged investors to abandon the low-yielding Dollar to seek higher returns elsewhere.

Indeed, some feared a further rout as the US currency appeared to have supplanted the Japanese Yen as the funding currency of choice in the global carry trade. This is where low-yielding currencies are sold to fund the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

The Dollar index, which tracks its value against a basket of six important currencies, fell to a one-year low of 76.010 on Thursday, taking its losses since the start of the month to 2.7%. The currency also dropped to a one-year low against the Euro, falling 0.7% to $1.4704 over the week, and to a 14-month trough against the Swiss franc, dropping 0.5% to SFr1.0288 on the week.

The Dollar suffered against other buoyant commodity-linked currencies. During the week, the Australian Dollar climbed 0.8% to $0.8687 against its US counterpart, the New Zealand Dollar rose 0.5% to $0.7093 and the Canadian Dollar gained 0.7% to C$1.0699.

The Dollar also fell to a seven-month low of Y90.10 against the Yen on Wednesday after comments from Hirohisa Fujii, Japan's incoming finance minister, calmed fears that Tokyo would intervene to stem the currency's recent rise.

Mr Fujii said Japan's new government, which took power on Wednesday after a landslide victory by the Democratic party in elections last month, opposed intervention in the currency markets unless price swings became excessive, adding that recent currency moves were not a concern.

Worries that Japan would move to help its exporters and step in to weaken the Yen have heightened in recent weeks as the Japanese currency has risen rapidly towards the Y90 against the Dollar.

Analysts said the comments from Mr Fujii suggested that the government was less interventionist than its predecessor.

The Yen later gave back its gains, however, due to caution ahead of Japanese holidays next week. Over the week, the Yen eased 0.9% to Y91.28.

Sterling also suffered, dropping 2.4% to $1.6280 against the Dollar on the week and falling 3.3% to a four-month low of £0.9035 against the Euro as expectations grew that the Bank of England would hold interest rates at record low levels for a long time.

The prospect for further quantitative easing measures in the UK have heightened after Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, told parliament that he was considering lowering the interest rate paid on commercial deposits held by the bank to inject liquidity into the financial system.

The Scandinavian currencies were the star performers this week with SEK and NOK the top two gainers versus the Dollar, buoyed by the continued rally in commodity markets. The performance of SEK has been particularly interesting given that Swedbank have already gone down the route of negative interest rates. Norway, conversely, is widely expected to be one of the first in the G-10 space to begin tightening monetary policy.

In emerging markets, there was outperformance from the Czech Koruna, Polish Zloty and the Hungarian Forint versus the Euro and the US Dollar. There was a boost from a further rise in both the current situation and economic sentiment components of the German ZEW.

The South African Rand underperformed this week versus the Dollar, depreciating by 0.1%. The weakness in Chinese equities is likely to have had a negative impact given the commodity links between S. Africa and China.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars trimmed weekly gains as technical indicators signaled their advances versus the Dollar may stall. The 14-day relative strength index for the Australian Dollar against the US currency climbed to 70 on Sept. 16, the highest level since June 2. A reading of 70 indicates a reversal in direction may be imminent.

Australia's currency slid to 86.92 US cents, from 87.28 cents yesterday, when it rose to 87.75 cents, the highest level since August 2008. New Zealand's Dollar was little changed at 71.06 US cents, after reaching 71.58 cents yesterday, also the most since August last year.

China's RMB ended slightly lower against the US Dollar Friday as some Chinese banks sought the US unit ahead of an early close to business in Beijing in the afternoon as the capital prepares for a rehearsal of National Day celebrations.

Traders said they expect the Dollar to continue trading in a narrow range against the RMB next week, as Beijing is likely to continue to set the Dollar-RMB central parity rate around recent levels. They said they expect the Dollar to trade in a CNY6.8260-CNY6.8290 range Monday.

On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.8279 around 0930 GMT, up from Thursday's close of CNY6.8265. It traded between CNY6.8260 and CNY6.8287.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina expressed scepticism on Thursday about a US and European push to launch an effort to tackle global economic imbalances at next week's G20 summit in Pittsburgh.

Zhou Wenzhong, China's ambassador in Washington, said: "People should not focus on only one thing, that is balancing the economy." The International Monetary Fund should concentrate on doing a better job of monitoring the build-up of financial risks.

He said China - which reacted angrily to US moves to slap countervailing duties on tyre imports this week - wants the G20 to make a strong commitment to avoiding protectionism.

Mr Zhou's comments, echoed by officials in Beijing, came as the White House and European nations move to try to agree in Pittsburgh a framework for tackling global imbalances - big gaps between savings and investment rates among countries, reflected in big current account surpluses and deficits.

"We hope to reach agreement on a framework for balanced growth, for agreeing on how to address the imbalances that led to this crisis and on some process for holding each other accountable," Michael Froman, the US's deputy national security adviser for international economics, said on Wednesday.

us officials see co-ordinated efforts to reduce global imbalances as essential to underpin the recovery from the global recession and ensure the future pattern of global growth does not rely on bubble-fuelled spending in the US.

"Global imbalances have to add up to zero, so if the US is going to be less the consumer and importer of last resort then other countries are going to need to be in different positions as well," a senior administration official told the Financial Times recently.

There may be a "breakthrough" in the long-running battle to reform the governance of the International Monetary Fund at the G20 meeting next week, the head of the IMF said on Thursday, reports Sarah O'Connor in Washington.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's managing director, said he expected progress at Pittsburgh in the push to give developing countries greater representation at the fund. He also suggested the G20 should think about how to include poorer countries in its decision-making process.

Mr Strauss-Kahn said the meeting in Pittsburgh would test whether countries would act together as the crisis began to ease. "We're still at the point where national concerns, domestic problems may overcome," he said in comments after a speech to the Centre for Global Development in Washington.

His speech focused on the world's poorest countries, which he said needed around $55bn in additional external financing this year and next. The IMF could provide around a third, he said, but he urged donor countries to step up their aid at least to match promises made in 2005 at the Gleneagles summit.

"At times like this there is always a temptation for countries to retreat inwards .. But the world community cannot ignore the needs of the low-income countries, especially since the poorer countries are paying the price for rich-country mistakes," he said.

Britain, France and other European nations are backing a push on global imbalances at the G20 summit. Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister, said this week: "When I attend the G20, I will be putting the case for a global compact for growth and stability for now and for the future."

These nations want a credible process for monitoring national efforts to bring greater balance to their own economies. The Obama administration insists this is not about blaming China and other surplus nations for helping cause the crisis - but rather about ensuring the global economic exit from the crisis is well choreographed and the world is able to grow strongly with greater stability in the future.

US officials believe there is a considerable degree of consensus on the need for this, including in Beijing. Economists, meanwhile, are warning that the pattern of global imbalances could re-emerge as global recovery strengthens, creating the risk of instability.

"The deep irony is that the recovery is setting the stage for a resurgence of global macroeconomic imbalances, which contributed to getting us here in the first place," said Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and former IMF official.

While China is committed to shifting its growth model over time so it is less reliant on exports and more based on domestic demand, it is wary of a global push on imbalances, apparently due to fears it could become a way of bashing Beijing over its trade surplus.

Imbalances were "certainly not the root cause of the problem", Mr Zhou said. "The root cause of the crisis is the lack of supervision and abuse of the openness of the market, very risky levels of leverage and too much speculation."

He said China wanted to see moves to improve global financial supervision, strengthen bank capital and create global early warning systems to identify threats.

"China intends to play an active role in international efforts to revive the global economy but the responsibility for causing the crisis is not ours," said a senior official in Beijing on Thursday.

China is likely to argue that it is already doing a substantial amount to rebalance its economy. Although imports and exports have both slumped this year, imports have fared less badly as a result of demand for commodities created by the government's fiscal stimulus programme.

China's current account surplus, which reached nearly 10% of gross domestic product last year, is forecast to fall to about 5% of GDP this year.

Li Rongrong, head of the government body that runs state-owned companies, said that a proposal of 20 policies to boost the private sector had been submitted to the State Council.

"If these pro-private investment policies can be formulated and implemented successfully, they will potentially have a game-changing effect on China's private-sector economy," said economistS.

*******************************

Sinopharm, China's biggest pharmaceuticals distributor, and Metallurgical Corp, one of its biggest engineering groups, have raised a combined $3.5bn in initial public offerings in Hong Kong.

The sales, which collected more than the total value of Hong Kong IPOs in the first half of the year, come as a wave of Chinese companies seek to offer new shares in the territory.

In the past three months, 13 companies have priced IPOs in Hong Kong, while 23 companies have announced their intentions to do so in the coming months.

Most of those have been mainland Chinese companies looking to take advantage of buoyant stock markets to raise funds for expansion. Dozens of mainland companies mothballed IPO plans last year when markets plunged.

While some analysts say the wave of IPOs will have little effect on the Hong Kong stock market, others argue that it will inevitably drag prices lower as the glut of new shares diverts money from existing stocks.

"When issuance picks up, it is one of the classic signs that the market has reached a top," said the chief investment officer of a private bank.

In Hong Kong's biggest IPO this year, Metallurgical on Thursday sold HK$18.2bn ($2.3bn) of stock, people familiar with the deal said, following its listing in Shanghai last week, which raised Rmb18.97bn ($2.78bn).

Sinopharm raised HK$8.73bn in a deal that was priced late on Wednesday. The company has attracted plenty of investor attention because China, the world's third-largest economy, plans to spend Rmb850bn improving its healthcare system in the next three years.

Sinopharm priced its offering at HK$16 per share, at the very top of a price range from HK$12.25 to HK$16. The retail and institutional tranches were more than 500 times and 40 times subscribed respectively. An over-allotment option to issue additional shares represented 15% of the offering.

Metallurgical fetched HK$6.35 per share, towards the lower end of a HK$6.16 to HK$6.81 range. Its institutional tranche was more than 10 times subscribed, while the retail tranche was covered more than 200 times.

Shares in Sinopharm will start trading on September 23 and Metallurgical Corp will debut the day after.

Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, China International Capital Corp and Citic Securities arranged Metallurgical's Hong Kong sale. CICC, UBS and Morgan Stanley advised Sinopharm.

*******************************

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., part owned by Citigroup Inc., said it is considering selling shares and convertible bonds and may seek an overseas listing to replenish capital depleted by credit growth.

The bank aims to have at least 115 billion RMB ($16.8 billion) of capital in 2010 and 134 billion RMB in 2011, up from 78.8 billion RMB as of June 30, the Shanghai-based company said in a statement to the city's stock exchange late yesterday. Core Tier-1 capital will increase to 71.5 billion RMB next year and 84 billion in 2011, from 45.5 billion RMB in June.

Pudong Bank, seeking to boost earnings by about 10% in 2009, expanded loans by 35% in the first half as the government encouraged lenders to support its 4 trillion RMB economic stimulus package. That drove the bank's capital adequacy ratio down to 8.11% at the end of June, the lowest among the nation's 14 publicly traded lenders.

Pudong Bank had an average 74% profit growth over the past three years, enabling it to retain 18 billion RMB of earnings as capital. Yet accumulation through retained earnings alone can no longer support its expansion needs, the bank said in the statement.

The banking regulator said earlier this month it has forced banks whose capital adequacy ratios have fallen close to 8% to curb expansion. Pudong Bank, with 518 outlets nationwide, had aimed to have about 800 outlets by the end of 2010.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission plans to implement stricter capital requirements for banks by forcing them to deduct holdings of other lenders' subordinated debt from their capital.

Such a measure would lower the industry's average capital adequacy ratio by about 0.6 percentage points and force smaller lenders including Pudong Bank and China Minsheng Banking Corp. to raise 36 billion RMB in share sales by 2010, according to China International Capital Corp.

Pudong Bank last month won regulatory approval to raise as much as 15 billion RMB selling new shares. The bank's capital ratio may rise to 9.65% after the offering, still lower than the 10% minimum required by China's banking regulator, according to yesterday's statement. The bank aims to maintain the ratio above 10% in the next two years.

Shares of Pudong Bank have rallied 127% in Shanghai this year, compared with a 68% increase in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index. The stock fell 0.3% to 21.44 RMB as of 9:42 a.m.

Pudong Bank was established in 1992 by the government of eastern Shanghai's Pudong county to fund construction of the city's Lujiazui financial area, conceived as China's version of Wall Street. New York-based Citigroup owns 3.78% of the Chinese bank, which has 491 outlets nationwide.

*******************************

That it was predictable does not make it any the less damaging. Barack Obama's decision to impose safeguard tariffs on imported Chinese tyres suggests that, when forced to come off the fence on trade policy, he generally dismounts on the wrong side.

The arguments about why this decision is a bad one stack up relentlessly. First, it involves protecting an industry that does not want to be protected. American tyre manufacturers have not even been asking for tariffs: this complaint came from labour unions in the steel industry, which supplies tyre makers. Competition (and technological change) can create real hardship and uncertainty in US manufacturing, but the number of jobs likely to be saved via such actions is minimal.

Second, since these safeguards are only applicable against China - part of the price it paid for joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001 - any gap in supply will most likely be filled by tyres from other low-cost developing countries, not an increase in US production.

Third, since the tariffs are meant only to provide temporary relief from import surges, we will be right back here in a few years.

Tyre imports are not worth starting a global trade war over. But with calmness and cool heads, the early signs are that the skirmishes can be contained. Wrongheaded though Mr Obama's action may be, it is still probably legal: China did, after all, sign up to the safeguards.

Beijing's reaction to the decision was swift but measured - a pattern it is beginning to establish in trade disputes. It requested consultations at the WTO (the first step to litigation, though the complainant frequently does not follow through) and threatened to block imports of American chicken and auto parts - products whose sales are already restricted by existing trade disputes. This is tit-for-tat: it does not yet look like escalation.

Mr Obama's predecessor, George Bush, though he rightly resisted using this particular safeguard, blocked steel imports early in his presidency, a much bigger deal than tyres. Nonetheless a wholesale global retreat to protectionism did not ensue.

True, the atmospherics around trade are more ominous now than then, with a steady if not explosive rise in the number of protectionist actions taken around the world. And Mr Obama's ruling will only worsen that tension. But unless it proves to be the first in a string of bad decisions, it need not be catastrophic. Cool heads and a sense of proportion can yet stop a global trade conflagration catching hold.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 Next week is going to be relatively stable (if there is such a thing in current market conditions) where the focus will be the G20 meeting at the end of the week.

Huge central bank injections of liquidity in the past year have meant there is enough money in the system looking for return to allow both bonds and equities to rally at the same time in recent months.

G20 leaders, who meet in Pittsburgh next week, would jolt markets if they were to depart from the reassuring line on stimulus withdrawal taken by their finance ministers.

But it is more likely that the focus will shift seamlessly to how much more liquidity will enter the system after the ECB's next one-year refinancing operation scheduled for end September.

Government bond yield curves are implying economic recovery and a gradual unwinding of quantitative easing rather than any short sharp stimulus withdrawal shock.

The statement issued after next week's FOMC meeting will shed more light on the Fed's views on the resilience of the economic rebound and therefore be crucial in determining whether recent yield curves plays remain in place.

While it is the Fed meeting that will be at the forefront of traders' minds, the market's sensitivity to the global rate cycle turning means a Norges Bank policy meeting has scope to cause ripples well beyond domestic markets if a rate rise expected later this year looks like it might be brought forward.

Major economic reports next week (flash PMIs, German Ifo, and US durable goods) will show whether the building blocks are in place for economic activity to pick up further and for world stocks to extend gains of nearly 70% they have made from March lows.

As long as nothing upsets the market's view that monetary and fiscal stimulus won't be withdrawn too hastily and the economic recovery looks well on track, investors could keep wanting to move further along the risk/return spectrum.

The extension of the Dollar's slide is causing discomfort in some quarters in Asia, but apparently not yet in Japan, where the tack taken by Japanese officials is encouraging some traders to target a Dollar/Yen move below 90, regardless of the pain this might inflict on exporters.

How well European and Japanese corporates have hedged will determine the scale of any corporate scramble, and hence the speed of FX moves, if the Dollar breaks lower still.

A growing confidence that Tokyo will stick to a laissez-faire attitude to Yen gains would set the scene for broader Yen appreciation, especially against the currencies of countries, such as Britain, which have espoused a similar hands off approach to FX.

Money markets are signaling signs of a "normalization" that few thought was possible a year ago, with Libor/OIS and TED spreads collapsing to near pre-2007 levels, but pockets of problems remain.

How willing banks are to lend to all but the best household/corporate credit and the gap between the rates at which the top-tier banks can fund themselves and those paid by the rest are flagging issues that policymakers have yet to resolve.

The health of the funding markets in Q4 will be a key determinant of retail credit conditions, and therefore economic activity, in the quarters to come.

So all told, I think that next week will either reveal 'cracks' starting to form in the seemingly global belief that 'we are completely out of the woods' or, markets will continue to rally in 'amnesia-mode' and as I mentioned at the start of this Newsletter this week, in the interim we will see hundreds of thousands of new small retail investors open up trading accounts.

Will they know when the time is right to exit the markets or is it going to be a case of 'last in, last out'?
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
In This Issue
US Markets
European Markets
The UK Market
Asia Pacific Markets
Global Commodities
Global Currencies
China This Week
Summary
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