Financial Page International

2 May 2009 - Global Markets Review

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen,

How would I describe the week that was?

Quite simply in two words; "very" and "frustrating"!

I would like to expand on this and explain just 'why' I am finding the whole global financial conundrum 'very frustrating' - just in case anyone reading my weekly 'blurb' seems to think that recently, I never have a good thing to say.

This week has seen Chrysler file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy and as such, people are hopping around in the American Car sector saying that GM's Thursday-announced 34% decline in car sales was, yes you guessed it, 'better than expected' and the Auto sector climbed heavily.

Please allow me to explain two things about Chrysler. The first being that for Fiat to rescue Chrysler, we are going to need three amazing changes to happen simultaneously;

First, Americans have to embrace small cars - they never have and in my opinion, never will.

Secondly, neither have they bought Italian small cars in any volume.

Thirdly - and this is a 'killer'- never have small cars been profitable for any auto company in North America that wasn't Japanese.

So the actual 'merge' of Chrysler and Fiat is not a good thing in my opinion, other than to stop a host of workers losing their jobs in the short-term - and in turn giving the Government more breathing space.

Chrysler began its stint in bankruptcy court on Friday with a plea for haste and a doomsday warning that, if it could not execute its proposed restructuring within two months, hundreds of thousands of jobs could be lost.

And shortly after 1 June - the date by which GM has to announce major cost-cutting initiatives (other than reducing management bonuses) - we will see General Motors in the same court filing for the same Chapter 11.

Yet perversely, markets in the US see this as a 'positive'.  Extraordinary.

Now let's jump across sectors to the Banking Sector and those long-awaited 'Bank Stress Test' results.  Guess what, their release on Monday has been .... delayed. 

The delay in the release of the test results comes after some troubled banks, including Citigroup and Bank of America, contested the governments' findings that they needed billions of Dollars in extra capital.

The authorities' decision to let the original timetable slip also reflects the widespread belief that, after months of speculation since the tests were first announced in February, their outcome has the potential to disturb the markets.

Government sources said regulators were likely to release both aggregate and individual data for each of the 19 banks, detailing their losses and capital needs under adverse economic scenarios.

Some of the banks will then supplement those data with regulatory filings and analysts' calls. Bankers said a number of lenders had pleaded with regulators for more time to lay out plans to plug any capital shortfall identified in the stress tests, by raising equity from either the government or from the stock market.

People familiar with the situation said that, despite their objections, Citi and BofA - and at least four more lenders - were almost certain to need more equity capital.

Citi could boost its equity by expanding a planned conversion of preferred shares into common stock, or taking a further capital injection from the government.

The latter move could increase the government stake in Citi beyond the 36% it has already agreed to buy and could then, in turn, lead to the removal of chief executive Vikram Pandit.

If BofA is found to need more equity, the most likely way to obtain it would be to convert the $25bn (€18.9bn, £16.8bn) in preferred shares the government bought in the bank into common equity.

Ladies and Gentlemen, as I have been saying for months now - the banking sector is not out of woods by any stretch of imagination; this is government 'firefighting' of the highest order so that Citi and B of A can be 'preserved' - but I ask you, at what cost?

Global stock markets rallied this week as investors set aside warnings that the swine flu outbreak was likely to turn into a global pandemic and focused instead on emerging signs of economic recovery.

The FTSE World index rose 11.5% in April, the strongest monthly gain for global equities since January 1987, while emerging markets rallied 16.3%, their best monthly showing since December 1993. Tighter spreads in credit markets, falling government bond prices and weakness for gold this week added to the evidence that risk appetite was improving.

The key question for investors is whether the latest recovery of equity markets represents the beginning of a sustained appreciation or whether the rally will exhaust itself.

From their peak in early 2008, global equity earnings have fallen for just over one year so the adjustment appears incomplete. Friday's rapid market recovery ought to give way to consolidation - but it just isn't happening!

Yes, I mentioned 4 weeks ago that there was light at the end of the tunnel and I expect economic newsflow to continue to improve slightly, but I do not believe this marks the start of a more prolonged and sustainable economic recovery.

On top of continued rising unemployment, the structural impediments of too much household and sovereign debt, increasing government interference and a weak financial system should ultimately prevent markets going further, until we have that drop I have been mentioning.

Another bank bit the dust this week; banking regulators have seized Silverton Bank of Atlanta, a bank that provided services to other banks, and the biggest bank failure so far this year.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said on Friday it had created a bridge bank to take over Silverton, saying this would allow its client banks to maintain their relationship with the least amount of disruption.

Silverton, with about $4.1 billion in assets and $3.3 billion deposits, was the largest failure since Downey Savings and Loans was seized in November with about $12.8 billion in assets.

Syncora, the US Bond Insurer, also bit the dust this week.

But perversely, as the same time, Mastercard became the second leading credit card company in two days to beat analysts' estimates with its results. It saw some gains on Thursday after better-than- expected results at Visa lifted the sector as a whole.

Another one of my 'go figure' questions for the week!

It's not just the US either.

Germany's economy will shrink by 6% this year, making it one of the worst-performing large economies, the government said on Wednesday after slashing its official growth forecast.

Yet growth would resume next year, ending the worst recession in the Federal Republic's history, said the government, brushing aside calls for a new fiscal stimulus to prop up consumption at home.

The new forecast, down from an expected 2.25% contraction, underlines the impact the global downturn has had on Germany's export-reliant economy. Of the world's largest economies, only Japan is expected to shrink faster.

It is bad news for Angela Merkel, chancellor, and the parties of her "grand coalition", which face a general election in September against a backdrop of increasing hardship.

Although opinion polls show the public has yet to wake up to the crisis, this could change if unemployment begins to rise rapidly.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, economics minister, said close to 1.5m workers would lose their jobs this year and next. "We face a confidence crisis," he said as he unveiled the new figures. "We need to reclaim this confidence and this requires a clear, honest analysis of the situation."

I for one am someone that cannot wait for markets to 'bottom out' and get back to having a certain degree of 'clarity'.  But I'm not going to join the masses and role over and say that everything in the global 'financial/economic garden' is rosy, when it obviously is not.

I may of course be proven wrong and this may not be a bear-market rally but instead may be a full-blown 'recovery'.  If that is indeed the case than it is a very, very sad indictment of Governments that are just delaying the inevitable melt-down.

This was and is the perfect opportunity to clear out the 'rot', allow markets, companies and whole economies to run a 'natural' course and if that course meant failure for a year or two, then so be it.

But Government intervention - barely thought-out intervention - is only going to make things worse in the long-run. By which time of course, said Governments will have changed and someone new will be in the chair to repeat the process!

Oh how I wish to see anything long-term positive and be able to start my weekends on a bright note!

On to the numbers for the week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks edged higher on Friday as the rising oil price overcame uncertainty over banks' balance sheets and Wall Street completed its seventh week of gains in eight.

Chevron gained 1.2% to $66.87 even after re­porting a 64% decline in quarterly profit to its lowest level in five years, missing Wall Street's expectations in the process.

Its larger rival Exxon Mobil also saw gains, a day after it reported worse results than expected. Its shares picked up 2% to $68.01.

Meanwhile, Conoco Phillips, which last week beat analysts' expectations with its first-quarter earnings, rose 3.7% to $42.50.

During the week, the market managed to shrug off fears over swine flu, a worse contraction in the US economy than expected and a delay in the results of the government's stress tests on banks to finish higher.

The benchmark S&P 500 advanced 1.3% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite index gained 1.5%. This was the Nasdaq's eighth straight week of gains.

The general uncertainty weighed on confidence, which was also hit by JPMorgan lowering its earnings forecasts for several institutions. Analysts warned: "We expect credit deterioration to persist, led by rising unemployment and continued sharp declines in home prices."

Bank of America closed down 2.6% at $8.70 while Wells Fargo fell 2% to $19.61.

Morgan Stanley jumped, however, after John Mack, the chief executive, denied reports the company was looking to buy a regional bank. Its shares rose 9.2% to $25.82.

The markets took extra confidence from figures showing that the decline in manufacturing had slowed during April.

The S&P 500 and the Dow both rose 0.5% to 877.52 and 8,212.41, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.1% to 1,719.20.

Equities were also feeling the fall-out from several disappointing earnings announcements, especially in the financial sector.

MetLife, the biggest US life insurer, felt the effect of the recent market falls as performance in its investments dragged it to its first quarterly loss since 2001.

Even excluding the investment performance, the company made a smaller profit than Wall Street had expected and its shares fell 7.7% to $27.45.

Hartford the insurer and financial services company, also suffered from the stock market crash as it was forced to pay out more on policies protecting customers from losses on investment accounts. This took the company to its third straight quarterly loss and its shares fell 7.9% to $10.56.

Aon, the insurance broker, was the third company in the sector to report falling revenues from investments. The company increased profits but fell short of analysts' predictions and the shares lost 13.8% to $36.38.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEurope's bourses climbed 12.9% during April, the highest rise in a calendar month since the benchmark FTSE Eurofirst 300 index opened in 1997.

The four-day week, before bourses closed for Labour day on Friday, started amid fear and anxiety about the global swine flu pandemic. But markets recovered as investors took in more positive news, such as relatively upbeat comments by the US Federal Reserve.

Indeed, in spite of an uncertain start, the pan-European index rose 2.5% to 828.62 over the week,

Banks and insurers provided bourses' with their biggest gains, with the finalisation of BNP Paribas' acquisition of Franco-Belgian bank Fortis the principal news. BNP Paribas rallied 10% to €40.25 over the week. Fortis, whose shares were suspended for two days, gained 5.7% on Thursday to €1.88.

While travel and tourism stocks suffered - and subsequently recovered - in response to the health scare, pharmaceuticals soared on hopes they might devise a vaccine or treatment.

Swiss drugmaker Roche, which makes the antiviral Tamiflu, performed particularly well.

Roche shares climbed 3.5% to SFr144.50 over the four sessions, boosted by the World Health Organisation decision to revise upwards the flu's threat level.

Merck, the German pharma group, also had a strong week. On Thursday, researchers published findings that suggested its Cladribrine tablets for multiple sclerosis made those with MS less likely to become disabled and to sustain brain lesions. Merck reiterated it would submit the drug for US and European approval in mid-2009. Its shares increased 2.4% to €67.95.

France's Sanofi-Aventis climbed 7.5% to €43.77, following the wider sector's gains and enjoying a recommendation upgrade by JPMorgan, from "neutral" to "overweight".

Gains in the technology sector were tempered at the end of the week by Sweden's Ericsson, which posted first-quarter earnings that were weaker than analysts had expected. The mobile network equipment maker was the worst-performing stock on its national index, and it lost 6% to SFr71.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsTrading concerns put InterContinental Hotels under pressure on Friday in a London market otherwise lacking direction.

InterContinental slid 3.3% to 626p after Starwood, its US peer, cut room-rate projections.

Starwood said that 2009 revenue per average room would drop 18%, from previous guidance of a 12 to 15% fall. This followed Marriott International last month forecasting room rates would slump by up to 20%.

The warnings sparked concern that InterContinental, which relies on the US for about 70% of earnings, may have to lower expectations at its first-quarter results on May 12.

Consensus forecasts imply InterContinental's average room rate will fall by between 10 and 12% this year, according to Shore Capital. Even allowing for cost cutting, the broker saw a 15% revpar drop producing annual earnings of about 50 cents per share; the current consensus is for 70 cents, it said.

However, analysts expect InterContinental to be doing better than Starwood because it is less reliant on upscale customers. A mid-market focus helped InterContinental keep room rates 3 percentage points higher than its US peers in the fourth quarter.

A public holiday across continental Europe left London trading subdued. The FTSE 100 closed barely changed, falling 0.49 points to 4243.22, on volume less than half the daily average.

Banks were vulnerable to profit taking - a trend assisted by reports that US stress testing results had been held back to find the least frightening way to present the data. Analysts also noted the failure this week of Syncora, the US bond insurer.

Barclays slipped 0.8% to 279p and Lloyds Banking Group was down 2.1% to 109.6p. Insurers followed the trend, led by Legal & General with a 3.4% loss to 56.3p.

Cigarette makers slid after Japan Tobacco warned that its full-year profit would miss forecasts, due in part to falling domestic demand.

British American Tobacco, which gives a first-quarter trading update on Wednesday, lost 2% to £16.07. Imperial Tobacco was down 1.9% to £15.22.

Pennon rose 4.4% to 464½p after UBS started coverage of the water utility with a "buy" rating ahead of the sector's five-year investment review.

UBS's other preferred pick was National Grid, up 0.4% to 567p.

Security firm G4S was ahead 1.7% to 192p on vague deal speculation. Lingering hopes of a bid also boosted Intertek to a record high, up 2.9% to £10.51 on very thin volume.

Among the mid-caps, Rentokil surged 16.7% to 76¾p after posting better-than-expected first-quarter results and saying its recovery was on track.

Telecity was up 0.6% to 265½p ahead of a trading statement on Tuesday. Confidence in the data warehousing group has been buoyed after Interxion, one of its main European rivals, said demand had remained strong.

Ashtead, the plant hire firm, lost 5.2% to 59¾p after management gave a downbeat view in preclose meetings with brokers.

Meanwhile, its US peer United Rentals this week posted earnings below market expectations and said construction markets remained very weak.

Agriterra, the former White Nile, dipped 5.9% to 3.65p after a large stock overhang was cleared at a steep discount to the prevailing share price. More than 97m shares - or 10% of the restyled farming company - changed hands.

Nighthawk Energy added 12.6% to 38p on talk that the sale of a 20% interest in its Jolly Ranch project in Colorado is imminent, while Ukraine-focused Regal Petroleum jumped 32.3% to 64½p after the company released results. Merrill Lynch said the company had several options to bridge a funding gap, including a joint venture and a sale of the entire business: "We think a corporate sale is also possible given extremely compelling valuation."

Arsenal Holdings, which is traded on Plus Markets, marked time at £6,750 even though director Stan Kroenke declared a raised holding of 28.3%.

Styles & Wood dropped 37.6% to 4.2p as investors reacted to late news of a £12.25m share placing and a highly dilutive debt-for-equity swap. The shopfitter's bank shared some of the pain by writing off £5m of debt and swapping a further £15m for convertible preference shares carrying no coupon for 3½ years.

ReNEuron improved 23.8% to 6½p after trial data from research in rats showed its leading stem cell line could treat strokes.

Bramdean Alternatives, the investment trust managed by Nicola Horlick's Bramdean Asset Management, lost 0.9% at 55p after entreprenEur Vincent Tchenguiz requisitioned a shareholder meeting to remove its entire board.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Japanese stocks jumped, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a near four-month high, as forecasts from Fujitsu Ltd. and Canon Inc. lifted optimism corporate earnings will recover in 2009.

Fujitsu, Japan's biggest computer-services provider, climbed 18% after predicting a return to profit. Camera maker Canon rose 6.1% after lifting its earnings target on the weaker Yen and cost cuts. Itochu Corp. soared 9.9% after manufacturing in China expanded and Nikko Citigroup Ltd. said the trading company's profit drop will be smaller than peers. Chemical maker Showa Denko K.K. tumbled 7.4% as its loss forecast prompted analyst downgrades.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 149.11, or 1.7%, to close at 8,977.37 in Tokyo, the highest since Jan. 7. The broader Topix index rose 9.06, or 1.1%, to 846.85. The Nikkei added 3.1% in the past five days, snapping a two-week decline, while the Topix increased 2%.

The electronics sector has managed to reduce inventory faster than other industries because their products were relatively inexpensive and price cuts could easily spur demand. Material makers need more time to finish the process and increase production.

The Nikkei has risen 1.3% on the year after losing a record 42% in 2008, on signs government and central bank measures to tackle the global recession are taking effect. Forty% of Japanese businesses that have reported fiscal 2008 results expect pretax profit will rise this year.

Fujitsu surged 18% to 496 Yen, the steepest jump since at least September 1974, the limit of Bloomberg pricing data. The Tokyo-based company said Thursday it expects to return to profit after selling its money-losing hard-disk-drive business to Toshiba Corp. and outsourcing some chip production.

Canon, the world's top camera maker, climbed 6.1% to 3,130 Yen after lifting its annual net income target by 12%, citing the weaker Yen and cost cuts. In January, Canon estimated the Yen would average at 90 against the Dollar and 120 versus the Euro this year. The Japanese currency depreciated against the Dollar to as much as 99.16 Friday, the weakest since April 20.

Showa Denko dived 7.4% to 137 Yen, making it the biggest loser on the MSCI World Index. The company Thursday forecast a net loss for this year on weaker demand from automakers. Nikko Citigroup reduced its recommendation on the stock to "hold" from "buy," while Barclays Capital cut its rating to "equalweight" from "overweight."

Softbank Corp., the nation's No. 3 mobile-phone carrier, jumped 11% to 1,717 Yen after doubling its dividend and saying it will eliminate its net interest-bearing debt by March 2015. It was the most actively traded stock by value in Tokyo.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1% in March from a year earlier, the first drop since September 2007, Japan's statistics bureau said Friday. The jobless rate soared to a four-year high of 4.8%, a separate report showed.

Itochu soared 9.9% to 578 Yen, even after predicting its full-year net income will fall by a fifth this fiscal year.

Mitsubishi Corp., the nation's biggest trading house, leapt 6% to 1,600 Yen, while closest rival Mitsui & Co. added 6.5% to 1,105 Yen. The two companies get more than half their profit from commodities, and trading houses were the biggest winners among 33 industry groups on the Topix.

Fanuc Ltd., Japan's biggest maker of industrial robots, added 5.1% to 7,430 Yen. Demand from Chinese machinery makers "rapidly" recovered in March and April and the country's stimulus measures are taking effect.

China's Purchasing Manager's Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.5 this month from 52.4 in March, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said Friday. That exceeded the 50 threshold for a second month that divides between expansion and contraction. The country was Japan's biggest export market in March, according to a Finance Ministry report.

Nikkei futures expiring in June climbed 1.9% to 9,030 in Osaka and jumped 2% to 9,040 in Singapore.

Markets in South Korea, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, The Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and India were all closed Friday for a Public Holiday.

INDONESIA

The JCI in jakarta was one of just a handful of markets trading Friday - albeit on very light volume.

The Index closed up 0.4% at 1,729.58 on the day.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market drifted down slightly in quiet trading Friday, with a majority of sectors losing ground after recent strong gains.

However, it remained resilient considering there was an equity raising by Macquarie Group, for which traders reported strong demand.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 10.9 points or 0.3% at 3769.6 after an early fall to 3754.2.

The index was 21% above its bear market low of 3120.8, set eight weeks ago. It rose 5.5% last month.

Most of the attention was on a Macquarie Group capital raising, with sources telling Dow Jones Newswires that Macquarie was looking to raise A$540 million in an institutional share placement at a fixed price of A$27.00.

Macquarie's full-year profit fell by more than 50% to A$871 million, slightly below guidance of about A$900 million.

Investors appeared to make room for the Macquarie Group share issue, with Woolworths down 1.1% at A$26.42, Westfield down 1.9% at A$10.53, AMP down 1.4% at A$5.12, Suncorp down 4.6% at A$5.63 and Foster's down 1.7% at A$5.18.

But some major stocks fared well, with National Australia Bank up 0.6% to A$20.76, ANZ up 0.6% to A$16.00, Newcrest up 0.4% to A$30.05 and Origin up 0.7% to A$16.40.

Conditions are expected to remain quiet early next week, with markets in Japan and the U.K. closed on Monday and Japan also closed on Tuesday.

BHP fell 0.8% to A$33.00 while rival Rio Tinto was down 0.4% at A$64.18.

Shares in OZ Minerals Ltd rose 4% to A$0.78. The company won a further two-month extension on A$1.1 billion in debt, giving it time to complete the $1.2 billion sale to Minmetals.

Lynas Corporation Ltd jumped 51% to A$0.45 after it agreed a deal with China Non-Ferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co. Ltd under which CNMC would become a majority shareholder in Lynas.

GPT shares dropped 6.4% to A$0.44 after the property group said earnings would be as much as 8% lower than previously forecast.

NEW ZEALAND

The New Zealand share market snapped a five-day run of rises to close lower in quiet trading Friday.

The benchmark NZX-50 index closed down 20.668 points, or 0.754%, at 2719.917 after initially opening slightly higher.

Turnover was worth $79.34 million. There were 59 rises and 25 falls among the 112 stocks traded.

Telecom, which has been a standout performer for some time, was down 19c at 263.

The company reports its third quarter result next week and Friday rival Vodafone said it was initiating legal action alleging Telecom's new network was the source of interference on its network.

Among the other leaders, Fletcher Building rose 4c to 674 and Contact Energy rose 1c to 571. TrustPower rose 3c to 715.

Freightways rose 2c to 292 after announcing a board appointment and Mainfreight was unchanged at 455.

NZOG's plan to expand offshore, including in Romania, did it no harm. It rose 1c to 140.

The Warehouse rose 11c to 370 and Restaurant Brands rose 1c to 96. Hallenstein Glasson, which this week announced Di Humphries was returning to a management role, rose 5c to 261.

Lion Nathan rose 5c to 1508 and SkyTV rose 2c to 411. Xero rose 5c to 125.

Tower rose 4c to 140. Ryman rose 2c to 142 and Ebos rose 5c to 490.

Retailer Briscoe Group was up 1c at 83 after reporting first quarter sales 0.1% lower than a year earlier to $90.2 million.
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesSugar prices jumped on Friday, with London white sugar hitting a fresh two-and-a-half year high, underpinned by bets that India, the world's largest consumer, will need further imports this year and in 2010 to fill a gap in its domestic production.

The surge closed a sweet week for sugar, with New York's raw sugar surging 7.5%, to a high of 14.93 a Pound - nearing a 14-month high - and London's white sugar moving 5.4% higher, to $441 a tonne.

The gains in New York came after the expiry on Thursday of the May contract led to a hefty delivery of almost 850,000 tonnes of sugar.

Other commodities markets were mixed during the week, but livestock commodities suffered significantly because of the impact on consumption of the flu scare.

The swine flu name hit pork commodities, with lean hogs and pork bellies falling up to 10% during the week. Prices, however, recovered somewhat Thursday after the World Health Organisation changed the name of the virus to "Influenza A (H1N1)", traders said.

Agricultural markets were strong. Soyabean ended the week hitting a fresh seven-month high at $10.86¾ a bushel, up 4.3%. CBOT June wheat rose 2.0% to $5.46¾ a bushel.

Oil prices consolidated above $50 a barrel ahead of a key meeting of Opec this month. Nymex June West Texas Intermediate Thursday closed $2.08 higher at $53.20 a barrel while ICE June Brent ended $2.05 higher at $52.85 a barrel.

Gold closed the week 3% lower at $884.5 a troy ounce. Silver fell 2.7% to $12.53. Base metals consolidated amid falling inventories for copper . LME copper for delivery in three months rose to $4,590 a tonne, up 2.5% on the week. Aluminium rose 5.2%.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 Foreign exchange investors ventured from their havens this week as global equities rose more than 11% in April, their best month in 22 years, and left the Yen and the Dollar weaker.

Swine flu fears sent investors running to low-risk currencies, such as the Japanese Yen, on Monday and Tuesday. But sentiment improved later in the week, driving investors to emerging markets and high-yield currencies.

With Mexico at the epicentre of the flu outbreak, the Peso was volatile. The first cases were discovered in the country's capital causing the currency to drop more than 5% against the Dollar on Monday. But it recovered some poise and eventually stood 3.9% lower on the week at 13.8450 pesos.

The stellar performance on global equity markets during April drove risk sentiment higher and turned fortunes around on foreign exchange markets.

Strong stock markets paired with some better-than-expected US data led the Dollar to fall 0.7% against the Pound to $1.4885, and 0.3% against the Euro to $1.3260.

The Yen, also a victim of improved investor sentiment, lost 1.3% against the Pound to Y147.53 and 0.8% against the Euro to Y131.48. The Dollar rose 0.5% against the Yen to Y99.11.

High-yield currencies rose in the later part of the week, with the Australian Dollar nearing a seven-month peak. The New Zealand Dollar gained also, following the decision by the country's central bank to cut the main interest rate by 50 basis points to a record low of 2.5%.

The Aussie ended the week 0.8% higher at $0.7293 and 2.8% stronger at Y72.40. The Kiwi made a weekly advance of 1.6% against the Yen to Y56.48, but remained fractionally lower versus the Dollar. Investors also sought out risk in central European and Asian emerging markets.

The South Korean Won climbed strongly on Thursday, gaining 4.4% against the US Dollar, the largest daily rise in almost six months. The movement came after a large capital injection into the nation's banking system and stronger industrial production figures than expected. During the week, the won climbed 4.6% to Won1,277 against the Dollar and gained 6.6% against the Yen to Won12.8535.

Meanwhile, the Taiwan Dollar rose 2% against the US Dollar to T$33.144.

The Pound was boosted on Friday after the release of better-than-expected UK manufacturing data, with the pace of decline easing to its slowest in eight months.

I have to be honest, I never thought the UK manufactured very much nowadays and so the effect of this news on the Pound is quite negligible really in its context.

The Canadian Dollar, supported by gains in crude-oil futures as well as the improved risk sentiment, also ended higher on Friday, at one point touching its highest level since 9 January.

Friday afternoon, the U.S. Dollar was at C$1.1869 from C$1.1957 late Thursday.

The South African Rand rose to a new multi-month high of 8.4115 against the US Dollar before leveling off in early trading on Thursday.

South Africa's central bank cut its repurchase rate by 100 basis points to 8.5% per annum with effect from this coming Monday. This was the lowest level since October 2006 and the fourth reduction since December. In March, the central bank had reduced the key rate by 100 basis points from 10.5%.

Keeping with tradition and rounding off currencies here in China. On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.8230, its lowest point since settling at the same level on 31 December 2008, and down from Wednesday's close of CNY6.8255. It traded between CNY6.8225 and CNY6.8264.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsForgive the lack of direct 'financial' news coming out of China this week.  As is the norm' on a Bank Holiday weekend, news was very thing on the ground.

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Revenue at both of China's main shipping companies more than halved in the first quarter compared with last year, in a sign of the scale of the challenge facing the country's once fast-growing state-controlled shipping companies.

Both China Cosco, which is a sizeable container line as well as being the world's largest operator of dry bulk ships, and China Shipping, a large container line, made losses for the quarter.

The companies had been among the fastest growing in the field as they sought to carry a significant proportion of China's trade.

According to Paris-based AXS-Alphaliner, Cosco operates the world's fifth-largest container ship fleet, with enough vessels on order to increase its fleet by 86%, while its dry bulk order book would expand that fleet by more than 20%.

China Shipping, the world number eight according to Alphaliner, has 31.5% of its current fleet capacity on order.

The lines' profitability appears to be falling faster than rivals' as they come under pressure to fill their fleets with cargo at low rates.

China Cosco on Thursday said it had made a net loss of Rmb3.35bn ($491m) in the first quarter, against a net profit of Rmb6.14bn last year. Revenues were down 63.8% to Rmb10.8bn.

The losses were a result partly of the company's disastrous speculation in the futures market for shipping contracts, on which it lost Rmb1.05bn during the period. China Cosco gave no revenue figures for its dry bulk business but said container shipping revenue had fallen 55.6% to Rmb4.42bn on volumes down 29.7%.

In results published on Tuesday, China Shipping announced it had made a Rmb1.2bn net loss for the first quarter - against a net profit of Rmb488m for the same quarter last year - on revenue down 58% to Rmb4.5bn.

It said it had reduced operating costs by 40% compared with last year but revenues had fallen more sharply than costs.

While China Shipping gave no precise volume figure, its falls are likely to have been similar to those at Cosco and Singapore's Neptune Orient Lines, which this week said volumes had fallen 27% this year.

However, Nol, which is more conservative than the Chinese lines, has seen revenues fall a more modest 38.6% for the year.

An analysis by UBS, the investment bank, said China Shipping was pursuing volumes at the expense of revenues.

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China raised the spectre of renewed international trade friction over market access for foreign financial information providers as the government said such businesses must not engage in news gathering in China.

The surprise ban on this business area is seen by industry executives as backtracking on an agreement China reached with the US, the EU and Canada in November last year on allowing companies like Bloomberg, Dow Jones and Thomson Reuters to distribute information to financial and corporate clients.

The November deal adopted a loose definition of financial information, including news rather than limiting such information to data such as stock market indices and exchange rates.

It was reached after the US, the EU and Canada lodged a complaint against China at the World Trade Organisation earlier last year over Beijing's move to make Xinhua, its official news agency and a competitor for the foreign providers in the financial information business, its de facto regulator.

In regulations published on the cabinet's website on Thursday, the government said foreign financial information providers would be allowed to set up businesses in China and would be regulated by the State Council Information Office. But the rules also said: "foreign financial information providers set up in China ... must not undertake news gathering activities".

The industry had seen the memorandum of understanding signed late last year as a victory of advocates of opening over protectionism.

But on Thursday, people close to the situation said they had the impression that forces intending to protect Xinhua had intervened in the last minute. "There will have to be communication and clarification," one source said.

Industry executives praised the rules in general as a breakthrough giving foreign players a clear legally-defined role for the first time.

China has required foreign news agencies to distribute to media clients only through Xinhua for more than 50 years. This will not change, and the foreign players do not challenge this arrangement for their news agency business which helps the Chinese government ensure news does not reach the public uncensored.

The companies' financial information services business had been relatively unrestricted until 2006, when China took the controversial step of ordering distribution through an agent wholly-owned by Xinhua.

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PetroChina, China's largest oil and gas producer, on Tuesday reported a 35.2% drop in net earnings for the first quarter on a drop in crude prices and weak fuel demand.

The problems, which made the company's results its weakest in two years, are also expected to be reflected in the performance of other big oil companies. Sinopec, PetroChina's smaller rival, is scheduled to report later on Tuesday. Among European energy groups, BP on Tuesday reported a 62% fall in first-quarter net profit, while Royal Dutch Shell is due to report results on Wednesday.

PetroChina said its net profit in the March quarter was Rmb18.96bn ($2.8bn), down from Rmb29.31bn during the same period last year.

Crude oil output dropped 5.7% from a year earlier to 205.7m barrels, and PetroChina said it refined 14.6% less crude oil on weakening domestic demand. Domestic sales of refined products decreased 2.8% to 21.3m tonnes, the company said.

Some analysts said the drop in output was surprisingly large and pointed to wider structural problems as the company's oil fields are ageing.

The International Energy Agency has forecast that China's oil demand will drop by 0.8% this year.

However, some analysts believe that the first quarter could have marked the bottom in PetroChina's performance and domestic oil demand could be rebounding.

China's leading refiners held almost 15% less fuel inventories in March than the month before, as sales rose from February.

Analysts said PetroChina could expect slightly stronger earnings for the current quarter if international crude prices continued to hold at their current level and the Chinese government took further steps to raise retail fuel prices. This would support refining margins.

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When Lin RMBjing's husband died of liver cancer in February she was prepared with the wads of cash she knew would be needed to navigate the bureaucracy of death.

The first people she paid were the hospital nurses and orderlies so they would clean her husband's body and treat it with respect when they moved it to a freezer cupboard in the morgue. Then she paid an orderly to help her register the death with the public security bureau and Shanghai government and contact the state-owned funeral parlour.

At the parlour, the grieving widow was confronted by a baffling menu of goods and services intended to smooth her husband's departure - from jade urns costing Rmb40,000 ($6,000, £4,000, €4,500) to paper money to be burnt for her husband's use in the afterlife.

With a couple of devastating comments about piety clearly intended to shame Ms Lin into coughing up more for her husband's cremation, the funeral parlour official ran through the long list of options - would she like her husband to be transported in a minivan or a Mercedes-Benz hearse? Would she like him to wait in a VIP room before cremation? Wouldn't that jade urn make the perfect final resting place?

While basic prices for transporting, storing and cremating bodies in China are supposed to be set and regulated by the state, "extras" including coffins, urns, wreaths, funeral processions and graves are all set by "the market".

The funeral industry around the world has long stood accused of exploiting vulnerable customers, but in China the price shock that confronts grieving relatives has an added dimension. In practice, the business of bereavement is monopolised by the Chinese government and state companies owned by local divisions of the ministry of civil affairs, which oversees the industry, and prices are inflated to extortionate levels to provide huge profits.

Public outrage erupted this month in China over profiteering in the funeral industry, and the outcry even spilled into the state-controlled press on the traditional tomb-sweeping festival, when Chinese honour the dead.

According to official state media reports, China's funeral sector would be a business worth Rmb16bn a year, based on an average of 8m deaths a year. But if sales of graves are counted the industry is worth more than Rmb200bn a year.

The mark-up on "extras" such as shrouds, funerary clothes, wooden coffins, wreaths and urns can be up to 1,000%, while graveyard space - even for the tiny cremation plots usually required by the government - can be up to 1,000 times more expensive per square metre than the average Chinese apartment.

"When one is alive he can't afford to buy a house to live in and when he is dead he can't afford a tiny box to rest in," says one outraged Chinese person in an internet posting.

According to the China Funeral Association 80% of funeral homes in China and 50% of graveyards are state-owned.

But because civil affairs authorities are majority owners and chief regulators of the business, operators of private graveyards are often closely related to civil affairs officials, and corruption is rife.

"It's like someone is both the athlete and the referee," says Zhang Mingliang, director of the social affairs department at the ministry of civil affairs, in an interview with the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Communist party. "The local funeral management departments are right there in the funeral homes, sharing staff with and getting salary from those funeral homes. How are they supposed to conduct efficient supervision?"

Before he died Ms Lin's husband insisted that his wife save money and bury his ashes at sea in a modest service subsidised by the government.

On a rainy day recently she gathered at dawn with hundreds of other grieving families on a dock on the outskirts of Shanghai.

While a brass band played a repetitive dirge the throng of strangers carrying paper bags of remains pushed and shoved their way onto the boat, jostling for prime position so they could be first to dump their loved one's remains into the East China Sea.

By avoiding a fancy funeral and most of the trappings, Ms Lin managed to keep total costs down to just Rmb7,000, an amount partly covered by a newly introduced Rmb5,000 government subsidy.

In a country where the deceased are supposed to be respected just as much as the living, it is getting harder for most to afford the luxury of dying.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 A busy event calendar next week should test the recent resurgence of optimism and risk appetite, a trend that has seen the Dollar slump against the Euro and other currencies.

Along with the steady improvement in many equity markets over the past two months, some recent economic data from the US, Europe and Asia have furthered the notion that the global economy's pace of decline has slowed and that recovery is no longer a distant prospect.

Although as I mentioned at the outset, I still believe we have some way to go down, before we can call this a sustained recovery.

The Euro and other risk- and growth-sensitive currencies have moved to multiweek or even multimonth highs against the Dollar as part of the global rise in sentiment as the greenback shed its previous safe-haven allure.

As I have been typing this, results of the government's tests assessing the health of the US's largest banks will be released Thursday next week now - or so they say at the moment. They are expected to show several banks may need more capital, or a higher quality of capital, to continue lending if the economy worsens through 2010.

The April unemployment rate is likely to reach 8.9%, though data this week suggested the pace of layoffs is slowing.

Major retailers will report April sales figures Thursday, with more declines, some in double digits, likely.

Economists expect to see another steep drop in US employment in April, when the job figures are released next Friday.

The unemployment rate has been climbing during the recession, which began in December 2007, reaching 8.5% in March as employers unloaded workers to cut costs. Unemployment is expected to climb toward double digits, even if the economy starts to grow this year.

A Labour Department report Thursday suggested the pace of layoffs might be easing, with fewer people being laid off though jobs are still hard to find. I'm not sure if this report is for real, if it is, it makes you wonder if the authors have been hitting the wine!

The first-quarter earnings season slows down next week, with only two components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 15% of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index members reporting. The Dow components are media and entertainment giant Walt Disney and Kraft Foods; both report Tuesday. Disney has cut jobs and offered promotions to boost attendance at its theme parks amid the recession. Kraft also is seeing sales fall as consumers buy cheaper store brands.

Other big media companies reporting next week are News Corp., the owner of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire, on Wednesday and CBS Corp., on Thursday.

Reports on March construction spending and pending home sales will be released Monday, providing the latest snapshot on the state of the housing downturn.

The Institute for Supply Management issues its report on the April service sector Tuesday. Its manufacturing index, released Friday, rose to 40.1 in April from 36.3 in March.

On Thursday, the government reports on first-quarter productivity and March consumer credit.

Although many factors are at play next week, foreign exchange investors will center their attention on policy announcements Thursday by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The ECB in particular has suffered from a perception that the institution is behind the curve in dealing with Europe's economic downturn, and that ECB policymaking is being hampered by infighting and fundamental disagreements.

Markets are now generally expecting a fairly aggressive ECB policy response on Thursday, involving at least another 25 basis point cut of the ECB's key policy rate, now at 1.25%, and fresh quantitative easing measures.

Next week, the Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged for the second straight month.

In the Asia Pacific region, traders will study a slew of domestic data next week and the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision for firm direction.

At the start of next week, the Australian Dollar/US Dollar are going to face major event risk as the Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to leave their cash rate target unchanged on Tuesday, after surprisingly cutting the rate by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent.

However, the Australian Dollar may only respond to a surprise rate cut or a biased monetary policy statement.

After the central bank's last meeting, RBA Governor Alan Bollard said, "The stance of monetary policy, together with the substantial fiscal initiatives, will provide significant support to domestic demand over the period ahead," suggesting that further reductions were unnecessary.

As a result, it will be important to look to Bollard's statement, as signs that the RBA may consider cutting the cash rate target again eventually could weigh on the Australian dollar, while indications of a broadly neutral bias could support the currency.

From my experience as well, either during or immediately after a Public Holiday/celebration here in China, Beijing quite often release some new tax or regulatory announcements and so I would not be surprised to see some news coming out of Beijing next week - this week having been practically stagnant.

All told, I think next week will be volatile and the Bank results next Thursday and the April unemployment figures Friday, should see the start of a decline across the board in my view.

But given the markets' current inane ability to rally on all and any news, negative or otherwise, I could be proven totally wrong of course!
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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