Financial Page International

20 March 2010 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
I'm not going to mention Greece this week because Germany and France have fallen out over whether to help Greece or to point them in the direction of the IMF.
 
Greece is starting to find out who its friends are, that's for sure!
 
But let me focus this week on China and ask the Million Dollar question:
 
To burst or not to burst?
 
That is the question this week and everyone who's anyone seem to be chipping in with their opinions on China's meteoric rise - and what some believe to be their impending meteoric fall.
 
Most of us living here in China have our own views but let's take a look at some of the 'experts' from outside - ie. those looking in.
 
China is in the midst of "the greatest bubble in history," said James Rickards, former general counsel of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP.
 
The Chinese central bank's balance sheet resembles that of a hedge fund buying Dollars and short-selling the RMB, said Rickards, now the senior managing director for market intelligence at McLean, Virginia-based consulting firm Omnis Inc.
 
"As I see it, it is the greatest bubble in history with the most massive misallocation of wealth," Rickards said at the Asset Allocation Summit Asia 2010 organized by Terrapinn Pte in Hong Kong Thursday. China "is a bubble waiting to burst."
 
Rickards joins hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, Gloom, Boom & Doom publisher Marc Faber and Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a potential crash in China's economy. The government has raised banks' reserve requirements twice this year after economic growth accelerated and property prices rallied.
 
China has pegged the RMB to the Dollar since July 2008 to help exporters weather the global recession. The central bank buys Dollars and sells its own currency to prevent the RMB strengthening; driving foreign-exchange reserves to a world- record $2.4 trillion as of December.
 
The Shanghai Composite Index of stocks jumped 80% last year and property prices rose at the fastest pace in almost two years in February, helped by a record 9.59 trillion RMB ($1.4 trillion) of new loans in 2009.
 
The World Bank indicated Friday that China should raise interest rates to help contain the risk of a property bubble and allow a stronger RMB to help damp inflation expectations. The nation's "massive monetary stimulus" risks triggering large asset-price increases, a housing bubble, and bad debts from the financing of local-government projects, Washington-based World Bank said in a quarterly report on China released in Beijing.
 
"People making comments about bubbles possibly don't have all the facts," HSBC Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Michael Geoghegan said in Shanghai Friday. Regulators are in control of the banking industry, and have the ability to curb lending as needed, he said.
 
Rickards said leveraged speculation in the stock market, wasteful allocation of resources by state-owned enterprises, off-balance-sheet debt through regional governments and the country's human rights record are concerns.
 
"Take Russia and China together, neither of them is really deserving any investment" except for short-term speculation, Rickards said. India and Brazil are two of the "real economies" among the developing countries, he said.
 
China is poised to overtake Japan as the world's second- largest economy this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, and Nomura Holdings Inc. forecasts it will contribute more than a third of global growth. The nation has surpassed the US as the world's largest auto market and Germany as the No. 1 exporter.
 
Harvard's Rogoff said last month that a debt-fueled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade, while Chanos, founder of New York-based Kynikos Associates Ltd., predicted a slump after excessive property investments.
 
Investors Bob Doll and Antoine van Agtmael say China's stock market isn't a bubble.
 
Equities will gain by the end of the year as the government takes measures to prevent the economy from overheating, Doll, BlackRock Inc.'s chief investment officer for global equities, said on March 5. China is unlikely to face "chaos" or experience a hard landing, Van Agtmael, who helps manage $13 billion as chairman and chief investment officer of Emerging Markets Management LLC, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday.
 
The Shanghai Composite Index is valued at 32 times reported earnings, compared with 52 times at its peak in October 2007. The US benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index trades at 19 times earnings.
 
China's economic growth quickened to 10.7% last quarter, helped by a 4 trillion RMB, two-year stimulus plan for railways, airports and homes. Property prices in 70 cities rose 10.7% from a year earlier in February.
 
Bank loans slowed to 700 billion RMB last month after surging more in January than the previous three months combined, central bank data showed. Growth of the broadest measure of money supply, or M2, slowed for a third month to 25.5%.
 
The banking industry has "very low impairment charges compared to what you'd expect this time in the cycle," HSBC's Geoghegan said. "I wouldn't be surprised if there's a gradual increase in impairments, but long term I'm confident that the structure of the banking industry is very, very sound."
 
Rickards disputed an argument that China could hold US policies hostage through its Treasuries holdings. The nation remained the largest overseas owner of US debt after trimming its holdings by $5.8 billion in January to $889 billion.
 
China would suffer massive losses if the debt was dumped, reducing the funds available in the US securities market and forcing the prices lower, he said. The US president also has the authority, rarely used, to freeze such positions, he said.
 
My response to that is "ha-ha, go ahead and try - do you not think China would have worked that out and found a way to counter that before they start to dump it"?
 
I have to say, I'm sat firmly on the side of the 'to burst's' and I think China are slowly realising this for themselves and the speed with which they are taking measures to counter this, may be too little initially and way too late.
 
On Monday the all time record land price paid for residential housing in Beijing was broken. TWICE.   After a week of postponement caused by the National People's Congress session the first new land auction drew pent up demand from buyers, including State Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
 
The embarrassment of the auction results for the central government - who have been insisting that proper steps are being taken to reign in speculation by state controlled entities, appears to have resulted in swift action.   Xinhua News Friday reported that The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, a watchdog agency, was requiring that 78 SOEs cease buying properties and exit the real estate development business entirely when current projects are completed. 
 
The report said that 16 SOEs whose primary business is the development of residential real estate may continue business as usual, presumably meaning that the other 78 that have been singles out are in other business lines entirely.
 
Reigning in SOE speculation is only one of the latest signs that Beijing is getting serious about curbing a bubble in real estate, but given the late timing of this action I can only reiterate my belief that the government has waited too long to act. It seems unlikely that deleveraging the system at this point can come without near-term pain on the asset valuation side.
 
Housing prices in China's 70 large and medium-sized cities increased 10.7% in February from a year earlier, and were up 0.9% compared to the previous month, said the NBS.
 
Prices of new homes in February rose 13% year on year, up 1.3% from January, and were mainly pushed up by soaring home prices in Hainan Province as the state government decided to build the island into an international tourist resort in December.
 
Haikou, capital city of Hainan, ranked first among other major cities in new home price growth, which soared 58.4% year on year in February. Sanya, the second largest city in Hainan, saw its new home prices up 56.1%.
 
Prices of second-hand homes climbed 8.5% in February from the same time last year, up 0.5% from the previous month, according to the NBS.
 
Sanya topped other cities in second-hand home prices, with a rise of 42.2% in February year on year, and was followed by Haikou, with a 41.7-percent-growth, according to the NBS.
 
In many quarters, Sanya is being likened to Miami in the US and will have similar problems along the line that Miami did.
 
The figures were announced during the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC), the top legislature, when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated determination to curb the excessive growth of home prices in major cities and satisfy people's basic need for housing.
 
China's central and local governments rolled out a series of measures to dampen the overheated property market at the end of last year, including reimposing a sales tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase and raising the down payment requirement for families buying a second house or more with bank loans.
 
In another move to cool the property market, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, raised the deposit reserve requirement ratio in January, and in February for the second time.
 
All told, I think Beijing may implement further measures in the coming weeks in the hope that they have things under control.
 
But I am sceptical and if this does NOT turn into a bubble bursting, then I feel this will be one of the greatest modern-day growth miracles in history.
 
On to the numbers for the week that was:   
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummaryUS stocks declined, ending an eight-day winning streak for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as India's unexpected interest rate boost spurred speculation withdrawals of economic stimulus will curtail global growth.
 
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Dow Chemical Co. dragged energy and raw-material producers to the biggest losses in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index as oil fell below $80 a barrel. Financial shares dropped after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut estimates for banks and brokerages. Palm Inc. plunged 29% after forecasting sales that trailed analysts' estimates and Canaccord Financial Inc. cut its share-price estimate to zero.
 
The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 1,159.90 at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming its third straight weekly advance to 0.9% and had the biggest daily decline since Feb. 23. The Dow lost 37.19 points, or 0.4%, to 10,741.98 after rising 2.2% since March 8. Almost two stocks dropped for each that rose on US equity exchanges.
 
Most stocks fell Thursday on concern the Federal Reserve will boost the discount rate, the amount charged on direct loans to banks. Economists said this may occur before the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on April 28. Fed spokesman David Skidmore declined to comment.
 
The S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since September 2008 on March 17. This week's rally brought the surge from a 12- year low last March to 72% after governments and central banks around the world maintained low interest rates and committed more than $12 trillion to stimulate the economy.
 
Stock swings have narrowed, with the 10-day average change between intraday lows and highs for the S&P 500 falling to 0.8% from 1.8% on Feb. 8.
 
More than 10.3 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, the most since Feb. 5 and 20% higher than the average in 2010, as the expiration of futures and options on stocks and equity indexes spurred trading. The process known as quadruple witching occurs every three months.
 
The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, rose for the first time in four days, advancing 2.1% to 16.97. The index, a measure of how much investors pay for insurance against declines in stocks, moves in the opposite direction of the S&P 500 about 80% of the time.
 
The energy and raw-materials industries in the S&P 500 fell more than 0.9% as the Dollar rose, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
 
The Dollar Index, a measure of the US currency's performance against those of six major trading partners, advanced 0.6%. The Euro fell as concern Greece will fail to secure financial assistance from the European Union reduced demand for the currency.
 
Exxon dropped 0.5% to $67.04, while Dow Chemical retreated 3.5% to $28.95. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the largest publicly traded copper producer, slid 2.2% to $78.51.
 
Financial shares in the S&P 500 dropped 0.7% after Goldman Sachs said it was cutting estimates on banks and brokers with ties to the capital markets by 15% following February results.
 
Goldman said it favored JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. versus Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc., and reiterated its sell recommendation on Jefferies Group Inc.
 
Palm slumped 29% to $4. Revenue in the quarter ending in May will be less than $150 million, Chief Financial Officer Doug Jeffries said Thursday on Palm's third-quarter conference call. Analysts in a survey had estimated $300 million on average.
 
The company also reported its 11th straight quarterly loss. Deutsche Bank AG slashed its price estimate on the stock 38% to $5. Canaccord cut its estimate to zero from $4 on solvency concerns.
 
DirecTV fell 3.4% to $33.42. The largest US satellite-television was cut to "hold" from "buy" at Citigroup Inc.
 
Aetna Inc. rose 3.7% to $34.46. The third-largest US health insurer said it expects first-quarter operating profit per share to exceed analysts' estimates.
 
US health-care stocks are poised to rally if the industry overhaul being considered by Congress becomes law because it removes uncertainty and expands coverage, BlackRock Inc.'s Bob Doll said.
 
The companies also are "still very cheap" relative to their earnings prospects, said Doll, vice chairman and global chief investment officer for equities at New York-based BlackRock, which oversees $3.4 trillion. Amgen Inc., UnitedHealth Group Inc. and Johnson & Johnson are "favorites" at the world's biggest asset manager, he said in an interview Thursday in Dayton, Ohio.
 
The House of Representatives plans to vote on a $940 billion overhaul of the US health-care system that aims to extend coverage to 32 million uninsured Americans on March 21. Health-care companies and health-maintenance organizations, known as HMOs, will benefit most because more people will be insured as the US population ages, Doll said.
 
The S&P 500 has entered an "air pocket" of little resistance as it pushed to a 17-month high, according to analysts at Instinet, who say the benchmark could extend its rally. The area of little resistance extends to between 1,180 and 1,200, where prices may keep rising even with low volume. 

European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryEuropean shares on Friday retreated from their 17-month highs reached earlier in the week as concerns over Greece's debt problems persisted.
 
Greece said it could not achieve the promised deficit reductions if its borrowing costs remained high, inciting speculation that the country may have to seek help from the International Monetary Fund.
 
Alpha Bank slid 9.6% to €6.75 over the week, EFG Eurobank fell 3.2% to €6.26. National Bank of Greece fell 6.5% to €14.97. However, broader market trends remained positive, allowing the FTSE Eurofirst 300 to close 0.6% higher over the week at 1,065.48.
 
Nestlé might spend R$650m ($361m) on acquisitions to expand its mineral water and dairy business in Brazil, according to the company's chief executive in the South American country. Speculation that the world's biggest food group might be in negotiations with Garoto, the Brazilian chocolate company, continued.
 
Nestlé shares dipped 1.1% this week to SFr53.15.
 
France's Ubisoft Entertainment, Europe's largest video game maker, jumped nearly 10% after Natixis upgraded the stock to "add" from "sell".
 
Swatch, the world's largest watchmaker, rose 4.2% to SFr339 over the week. Rogerio Fujimori at Credit Suisse said: "Swatch management recently indicated that revenues are running above the 'boom' levels of January/February 2008, which suggests that Swatch continues to materially outperform the industry." Swatch shares have risen more than 130% since January 2009.
 
Spain's Telefónica together with Mexican media group Televisa and Mexican cable television company Megacable on Friday announced they planned to jointly bid for fibre optic cable capacity to be auctioned off by Mexico's government. Telefónica shares dipped 0.8% this week to €17.78.
 
One of the biggest risers this week was Lindt & Spruengli which gained 6.3% to SFr 27,250 after UBS upgraded the Swiss chocolatier. 
 
GERMANY
 
German stocks fell for a second day, with the benchmark DAX trimming its third straight weekly gain, as K+S AG and steelmakers retreated.
 
K+S led declining shares and ThyssenKrupp AG dropped with metal prices in London. OBH Technology AG rose to the highest level on record after the company and Thales SA came closer to winning a contract to supply a new generation of weather satellites after the European Space Agency invited the group to enter formal contract negotiations.
 
The DAX Index dropped 0.5% to 5,982.43. The gauge climbed 0.6% this week after Standard & Poor's said it is no longer reviewing Greece's credit rating for a downgrade and as the Federal Reserve pledged to maintain record-low borrowing costs for an extended period. The broader HDAX Index fell 0.5% Friday.
 
K+S, Europe's biggest potash producer, fell 1.6% to 44.83 Euros, while Metro AG, Germany's largest retailer, dropped 1.2% to 41.99 Euros.
 
ThyssenKrupp, Germany's largest steelmaker, lost 1.7% to 25.10 Euros as aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc all fell on the London Metal Exchange. Smaller competitor Salzgitter AG slipped 0.6% to 67.14 Euros.
 
Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest carmaker, increased 1% to 72.16 Euros, while Deutsche Lufthansa AG gained 1.2% to 12.29 Euros.
 
Pfleiderer AG sank 5.8% to 4.90 Euros, the lowest close since July. The German maker of laminate flooring reported a full-year net loss of 69.8 million Euros ($94.9 million), compared with a profit of 5.8 million Euros a year ago.
 
OHB jumped 6.7% to 17.80 Euros. Thales and OHB beat out a competing bid by European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co.'s Astrium divison by offering a lower price, according to a statement by the agency's tender evaluation board. 
 
FRANCE
 
France's CAC 40 Index dropped 12.74 points, or 0.3%, to 3,925.44. The measure ended the week 0.1% lower. The SBF 120 Index retreated 0.3% to 2,882.22.
 
ArcelorMittal dropped 69 cents, or 2.2%, to 31.12 Euros, leading a retreat in the CAC 40 index. The world's largest steelmaker fell after India's central bank unexpectedly increased interest rates for the first time since July 2008.
 
Credit Agricole rose 24.5 cents, or 2%, to 12.47 Euros, leading gains by French banks after Lloyds Banking Group Plc said it may be profitable this year after "strong" earnings in the first 10 weeks of 2010. Societe Generale SA (GLE FP) increased 34.5 cents, or 0.8%, to 45 Euros.
 
Ubisoft Entertainment, Europe's largest video- game maker, rose 80.4 cents, or 8.6%, to 10.18 Euros, the steepest advance since December. The shares were upgraded to "add" from "sell" at Natixis, which cited expected positive news flow in coming weeks. Analyst Richard Beaudoux cut the stock to "sell" in July, before a 36% slide in the shares.
 
"While the going for retailers remains tough, the fact remains that, on the stock market, the video game sector continues to be driven by news flow and we believe this is set to improve in the short term," Beaudoux wrote in a note Friday. He cited the industry's E3 Expo June conference in Los Angeles as a "catalyst" and added that sales are likely to get a boost by the introduction of "Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands" in May. 
 
BELGIUM
 
In Brussels the Bel 20 closed out the week on 2,639.28, down 0.59% on the day.
 
Belgium's economic recovery is set to be gradual and fragile, with unusually high uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on Monday. "The near term outlook is clouded by a sluggish rebound in both domestic and external demand, rising unemployment, and growing public debt," the IMF said.
 
The Washington-based lender supported the fiscal consolidation strategy adopted by authorities to achieve a balanced budget by 2015. The lender also welcomed the authorities' commitment to take additional measures if necessary to achieve the deficit targets for 2011 and beyond.
 
"Early action is crucial to restore fiscal sustainability, further reinforce financial stability, and intensify labor and product market reforms to boost competitiveness and growth prospects." The IMF said the withdrawal from the emergency support to the financial sector should be done gradually to avoid market disruptions and a credit squeeze.
 
The IMF's Executive Directors highlighted the urgency of structural reforms aimed at raising productivity and restoring growth to its potential. Also, directors encouraged the authorities to push ahead with the restructuring of the labor and product markets.
 
Belgian IT services company RealDolmen said on Thursday that US investor Gores Group had sold its remaining stake in the group to various shareholders.
 
In 2004, Gores purchased 200 million Euros ($273 million) of the company's debts from a banking syndicate and agreed to convert most of it into equity to take a stake of about 83%.
 
The company, called Real Software at the time, racked up losses exceeding 400 million Euros from 2000-03. It returned to profit in 2006 and bought rival Dolmen in 2008.
 
Belgian banking and insurance group KBC will delay floating Czech unit CSOB until June at the earliest because of the complexity of the issue and an unfavourable market climate, De Standaard said on Wednesday.
 
KBC has agreed with the European Commission to sell or run down a range of activities to gain approval for the receipt of 7 billion Euros ($9.6 billion) of state aid.
 
De Standaard, which reported the original listing was planned for April or May, said preparation for the flotation of 30 to 40% of CSOB was more complex than expected and the market climate was not entirely favourable.
 
If it did not take place in June, it would have to wait until after the summer, the newspaper said.
 
A KBC spokeswoman said KBC and CSOB management were committed to the IPO and that important steps had been taken in the past four months.
 
"These preparations will continue, while observing market circumstances... with the intention to launch at the best time," she said. KBC has only said the IPO was planned this year.
 
THE NETHERLANDS
 
The AEX in Amsterdam finished the session Friday on 338.65, a dip of 0.97%.
 
The Netherlands will have to make structural savings of EUR 29 billion by 2015 in order to put its public finances in order, according to a policy think-tank.
 
The Central Planning Bureau says on the path of current policy, the Dutch budget deficit is likely to fall from 6.3% of gross domestic product in 2010 to 4.9% in 2011 and 2.9% in 2015 - a total deficit correction of EUR 18 billion.
 
The rising life expectancy and the ageing Dutch population, however, puts a greater burden on public finances, the think-tank said.
 
"With unchanged policies, budget deficits will soar and the government debt will become unsustainable," the CPB warned.
 
"An improvement of the structural budget balance of 4.5% of GDP or EUR 29 billion is needed in order to make public finances 'ageing-proof'."
 
The think-tank projects the Dutch economy to grow 1.5% this year and 2% in 2011.
 
Unemployment will rise to about 500,000 on average in both 2010 and 2011.
 
"Due to the financial crisis, the Dutch economy has lost about 5% of gross domestic product compared with previous projections," the CPB said.
 
"This loss will probably not be recovered in the next cabinet period."
 
The Dutch cabinet collapsed last month over disagreements within the governing coalition on extending troop deployments in Afghanistan.
 
Consumer confidence in the Netherlands improved slightly, with the sentiment index rising to -12 this month from -13 in February, the country's Central Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
 
Assessments on the economic situation in the past 12 months increased by 5 points to reach -47 in March.
 
On the other hand, views on the economic climate in the next 12 months were positive, with the corresponding sub-index at 7.
 
Consumer opinions on their own financial situation were the same as in February. Opinions on whether it is a good time to purchase major items also remained unaltered.
 
Thursday, the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the jobless rate stood at 5.7% in the December to February period, up from 5.6% in the November to January period. The jobless rate came in line with economists expectations. A year ago, the jobless rate was 4.1%.
 
The number of unemployed was 441,000 persons in the December to February period, which was 5,000 persons more than the previous three months period. 
 
SWITZERLAND
 
Zurich's SMI headed into the weekend on 6,880.76, a 0.25% decline.
 
Economic recovery in Switzerland has stabilized and the short-term outlook is likely to be friendlier than a few months ago, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, said Tuesday, unveiling its latest economic outlook.
 
The SECO expects the economic upswing to lose some momentum this year in the face of not more than moderate global economic impulses and falling domestic demand. Further, rising employment and a decline in the unemployment rate is not expected before next year.
 
The expert group on economic forecasts of the Swiss Federal Government now sees 1.4% growth this year, double the 0.7% expansion predicted in December. Meanwhile, the projection for 2011 was left unchanged at 2%.
 
On March 11, the Swiss National Bank also revised up its forecast to show 1.5% growth this year, up from the 0.5%-1% rise foreseen in December. Gross domestic product rose 0.7% sequentially in the fourth quarter. The economy exited recession in the third quarter last year by growing 0.5%, ending four quarters of negative GDP.
 
In further evidence of improved economic prospects, the Zurich-based KOF said on February 26 that Swiss year-on-year GDP growth rates will remain in positive territory this year. The think tank sees 0.6% expansion this year, higher than the modest 0.1% growth predicted in September.
 
As a consequence of the brighter economic development, the outlook for the country's labor market improved notably. The jobless rate is forecast to be 4.3% this year, down from 4.9% predicted previously. The rate is then expected to drop to 4.2% in 2011, revised down from 4.9% forecast earlier.
 
Against the background of moderate recovery of the economy and the employment market, the likelihood of price increases remains low despite the highly expansive monetary policy practiced worldwide and in Switzerland in recent years, SECO said. Prices have picked up since early 2010 after staying negative last year due to crude oil price effects. SECO maintained 2010 and 2011 inflation forecasts at 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.
 
Listing out the risks that the Swiss economy may face in the coming months, SECO said the fragile and high-risk condition of the global economy could turn out to be a stumbling block for strong growth of Swiss exports. Moreover, the domestic demand which has so far been quite vivid will probably lose momentum. In the fourth quarter, Swiss exports rebounded at a robust pace and domestic demand remained strong.
 
Further, SECO said it has to be expected that the building industry will be affected by a probable downswing more strongly than in the past due to the expiry of public projects. Furthermore, expansion in private consumption is likely to slow down owing to weaker immigration and moderate increases in real income.
 
Last week, the Swiss National Bank left its key interest rate unchanged for a fourth time to support the economy, which is emerging from the shadows of the worst recession. In its first quarterly meeting of the year, the central bank's Governing Board, led by Chairman Philipp Hildebrand kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%.
 
Sticking to its stance on the country's currency, the SNB said it will act decisively to prevent any excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the Euro. An appreciation of this kind would result in an undesired tightening of monetary conditions, the bank cautioned.
 
Industrial production in Switzerland rose 6.4% sequentially in the fourth quarter, the Federal Statistical Office said Thursday. Output rose more than the expected growth of 5%.
 
On an annual basis, production fell 1.1% in the final quarter of 2009, less than a 3.5% drop forecast. It follows a 6.6% drop in the third quarter. During the same period, industrial turnover decreased 4.3%, while orders received grew 1.4%.
 
Switzerland's watch exports grew 14.2% in February compared to the previous year to CHF 1.2 billion, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH said Thursday. The group said February's data provided a clear confirmation of the trend of previous months. During the first two months of the year, the sector exceeded the 2009 level for the same period by 8.6%.
 
Export of wristwatches showed an annual growth of 15.6% in February. At the same time, the number of timepieces exported grew in parallel by 30.8%. Around 430,000 more watches left Switzerland in February.
 
The report showed that many markets recorded positive results in February. After some hesitation in January and sixteen months of intensely negative results, the US returned to growth in February. Meanwhile, main European markets remained lacklustre. China made strong progress, moving into third place.
 
The Swiss parliament's upper house on Wednesday approved deals with the United States and four other countries to share data on potential tax dodgers, bringing the Alpine state closer in line with international standards.
 
Under the deals Switzerland will have banking data sharing arrangements with France, Britain, the United States, Denmark and Mexico in cases of tax fraud and tax evasion, in accordance with OECD standards, except when those requests are based on stolen data.
 
Under pressure from the G20, Switzerland, the world's biggest offshore banking centre, agreed a year ago to relax its prized bank secrecy and agreed for the first time to share certain bank client data with other jurisdictions, once bilateral tax treaties are ratified.
 
Switzerland's relations with both France and Germany have been strained in recent months after both countries obtained stolen information on possible tax dodgers with Swiss bank accounts.
 
"We won't give administrative assistance if stolen data is presented. That's our sovereign right," finance minister Hans-Rudolf Merz told television show Classe Politique.
 
"France has stolen data," he said. "If we get a request for administrative assistance from France, we're not honouring it."
 
All five agreements have been signed bilaterally but still have to be passed by parliament's lower house, where the right-wing SVP, which has said it opposes them, has the most seats.
 
AUSTRIA
 
The ATX in Vienna completed the trading day Friday at 2,578.00, a drop of 0.22%.
 
Tuesday, the Statistics Austria announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 0.9% year-on-on year in February, slower than the 1.2% growth in the previous month.
 
Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices fell 2.3% annually in February, while clothing and footwear prices fell 1.8%. Health care charges were up 1.6%.
 
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.1% in February, after falling 0.3% in January.
 
Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP rose 0.9% on an annual basis in February, slowing from 1.2% increase in January. Month-on-month, the HICP climbed 0.2%, after falling 0.4% in January.
 
Austrian postal service provider Oesterreichische Post AG, or Austrian Post, said Tuesday its third-quarter net profit fell 33% as the macroeconomic slump reduced the handled volume of parcels and as a general migration from letters to electronic communication cut into sales.
 
The company's management will propose a dividend of EUR1.5 a share, unchanged from the previous year, it said.
 
Net profit for the full year came to EUR79.7 million, down from EUR118.9 million, and considerably below the EUR112 million average estimate of seven analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
 
Sales fell 3.5% to EUR2.36 billion from EUR2.44 billion in 2008. This was in line with the analysts' estimate of EUR2.35 billion.
 
For 2010, Austrian Post said it expects the revenue decline in its mail division to continue, while its parcels business is expected to see some sales growth. Overall, Austrian Post expects group sales to drop by 1% to 2%, and to make a margin on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, of 10% to 12%, it said.
 
Sales of a new motorcycle designed and engineered by Austria's KTM Power Sports AG and to be built by India's Bajaj Auto Ltd. could be almost four times greater than those of KTM's entire current model range, underscoring the importance of emerging markets to its future.
 
In an interview with Dow Jones Investment Banker, KTM's Chief Financial Officer, Patrick Prugger, said he hoped its share of sales of the 125cc machine, known for now as the X-Street and which may go on sale at the end of this year or early in 2011, will be 40,000 units annually in places such as Brazil, where it has distribution rights.
 
An official at Bajaj, which is building the KTM-branded machine in Pune, India, confirmed that it expects to sell a further 100,000-200,000 units a year in India, Pakistan and elsewhere in Asia. KTM gets a royalty from the machines sold there.
 
In its last financial year to Aug. 31, 2009, KTM's core 30-plus model range of off-road machines and exotic street bikes sold around 62,000 units, down some 30% against the previous year.
 
SWEDEN
 
Stockholm's OMX ended the week at 1,020.26, up 0.20% for the day.
 
Sweden's unemployment rate eased slightly to 9.3% in February from 9.4% in January, Statistics Sweden said on Thursday.
 
Economists had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 9.4%.
 
A total 459,000 Swedes were without a job in February - an increase of 72,000 from a year ago.
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate stood at 9.1%.
 
Sweden's Ericsson will buy a controlling stake in a joint venture between South Korea's LG Electronics and Nortel Networks Corp, the Seoul Economic Daily's Web service reported Thursday.
 
Ericsson will announce an agreement on Friday to buy a 50% stake plus one share in LG-Nortel from Nortel, the newspaper said, without specifying sources.
 
Thermoplastic elastomer comPounding firm Hexpol AB is acquiring the VTC TPE group from polymer producer Vita plc for 35 million Euros ($48 million).
 
"VTC is a perfect fit for our company as its products will complete our product range," Georg Brunstam, Hexpol CEO and chairman, told European Plastics News. "We operate mainly in Europe and VTC's main markets are Germany, the UK, France and Scandinavia."

 
Some 80% of VTC products are sold in Europe, with the remaining 20% going to markets such as China and Vietnam, he added.
 
VTC has an estimated annual sales of 33 million Euros ($45.3 million) and is expected to become part of Hexpol in April.
 
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries is close to winning the €3.5bn auction for Ratiopharm, the German generic drug company being sold off by the indebted empire of the late Adolf Merckle.
 
The Israeli company beat Pfizer of the US and Actavis of Iceland to win control of the asset, according to people close to the situation.
 
That followed a series of presentations last month, where bidders made their cases to Ratiopharm's management on "soft" issues such as manufacturing and employment.
 
Teva's success will be a blow to Pfizer, which had been keen to acquire Ratiopharm to boost sales as blockbuster patents such as Effexor and Lipitor expire.
 
Teva is the world leader in generics with 18% of the market, following its $7.5bn takeover of Barr Pharmaceuticals of the US in 2008. Ratiopharm is Europe's largest and fifth overall with 3% market share.
 
Although Pfizer's established products division already has sales of $2.7bn through marketing its own products such as Norvasc and Zoloft, Ratiopharm would have catapulted it into the generic big league, on a par with companies such as Mylan and Watson, which each control about 6% of global sales.
 
Actavis will also be disappointed at losing the auction. The Icelandic generic drugs group had initially teamed up with EQT Partners to make a joint bid. But the Swedish private equity group withdrew last month after deciding a deal would not be in the best interests of its investors.
 
DENMARK
 
In Copenhagen the OMX rounded off the week's trading at 379.68, up 0.48%.
 
Nationalbanken on Wednesday raised its forecast for gross domestic product growth to 1.3% from 0.9% for the current year, while maintaining a 1.7% forecast for next year.
 
"The latest quarterly national accounts show that the restrained increase in production in the third quarter 2009 continued in the fourth quarter," the central bank said. "The recession in the Danish economy has thus stopped."
 
Like other Western economies, Denmark is heading to economic growth after the setback in 2008 and in the first half of 2009.
 
For the current year, the central bank has raised its inflation forecast to 2.0% from 1.4%, but for the next year, it still sees inflation at 1.5%.
 
In 2012, Nationalbanken expects inflation to remain at 1.5%, while GDP is seen higher, at 1,9%.
 
Saxo Bank, the online trading and investment specialist, will now offer property investment products for both private clients and institutional investors through a new company, Saxo Properties.
 
The newly formed investment firm Saxo Properties, fully owned by Saxo Bank, will launch closed-ended funds for both high net worth clients and institutional investors. Two of the Danish real estate industry's most well-known individuals, Jesper Damborg and Claus Klostermann, will respectively become CEO and managing director of investments at Saxo Properties.
 
"Initially, Saxo Properties will focus on handpicked Copenhagen residential, office and retail properties. The first fund will close within the next three months, but we intend to establish a number of funds with a significant ownership capital of at least DKK 250 million," said Jesper Damborg.
 
Saxo Bank's business model is often described as a facilitator model where the bank through its trading platforms offers liquidity, products and services to clients as obtained from other financial institutions. Saxo Properties will use the same model. Saxo Bank has hired Flemming Schandorff, the former COO of ISS, one of the world's largest commercial providers of facility services, to a similar position at Saxo Properties to facilitate administration of the estates.
 
"First and foremost, Saxo Properties will prioritize achieving attractive market returns, but we will also focus on how to capitalize on tight cost control and good management, such as rebuilding, mixed lease and general maintenance," said Jesper Damborg.

 
Saxo Bank's CEOs and founders, Kim Fournais and Lars Seier Christensen, said in a joint statement: "Saxo Bank holds asset under management of DKK 40 billion, and our focus on asset management has proved a great success. Many clients have asked for property investment products and there is also a clear synergy between Saxo Asset Management and Saxo Properties, which we can now utilize. Many properties are traded at a low price especially in Copenhagen, so the timing is right to expand our asset management to include property investment products."
 
Last year, Saxo Bank bought Sirius Asset Management, Capital Four and 51% of Global Evolution. The three companies now form Saxo Asset Management, which has management expertise for Danish bonds, Danish equities, corporate bonds and emerging market bonds.

NORWAY
 
Oslo's OBX closed Friday and the week on 334.93, a drop of 0.26%.
 
Monday, the Statistics Norway announced that the trade surplus stood at NOK 32.45 billion in February, up from NOK 30.25 billion surplus recorded a year ago.
 
Exports increased 0.1% on an annual basis to NOK 64.17 billion in February, while imports dropped 6.3% to NOK 31.72 billion.
 
The export value of crude oil amounted to NOK 24.7 billion in February. On a monthly basis, the export value increased by 18.4% and was up 51.1% compared to the previous year.
 
For the January to February period, the trade balance showed a surplus of NOK 66.7 billion, widening from NOK 62.62 billion surplus a year ago. During the period, exports and imports decreased by 2.9% and 11.5%, respectively.
 
Norwegian is very pleased that the Court of Appeal has ordered SAS to pay Norwegian close to NOK 175 million (approx 22 million Euros) in damages for the industrial espionage that we were exposed to, said CEO of Norwegian, Bjorn Kjos. Borgarting Court of Appeal has ordered SAS to pay damages of NOK 160 million, in addition to legal costs for the District Court and the Court of Appeal. In total, the amount adds up to just under NOK 175 million.
 
At the end of last year, the Court of Appeal heard the action for damages for SAS industrial espionage against Norwegian. The District Court ordered SAS to pay Norwegian NOK 132 million plus legal costs, in total amounting to over NOK 138 million. Both SAS and Norwegian appealed against the amount of damages to the Court of Appeal. The Court of Appeal has ordered SAS to pay NOK 160 million in damages, plus the full legal costs amounting to NOK 6 839 770 for the District Court and NOK 7 851 472 for the Court of Appeal. Borgarting Court of Appeal has by its ruling raised the amount of compensation and upheld Norwegians contention that the company suffered a significant economic loss as a result of SAS industrial espionage.
 
That the Court of Appeal now increases the amount of compensation is an important signal that industrial espionage will not be accepted, said Bjorn Kjos. At the same time, it shows that the justice system works and that unethical behavior over time will have economic consequences.
 
In a very vulnerable start-up phase of the company we were exposed to gross and cynical industrial espionage from SAS. Norwegian lost several hundred million Norwegian kroner as a result of SAS illegally usurping internal and sensitive information about Norwegian from the booking system Amadeus. SAS has been convicted for this espionage. That the Court of Appeal now increases the amount of damages is a natural outcome of the case and we are very pleased with the result, said CEO Bjorn Kjos.
 
FINLAND
 
In Helsinki the OMX finished the day on 7,187.36, down 0.80%.
 
Wednesday, the Statistics Finland announced that the producer price index or PPI for manufactured products increased 1.2% year-on-year in February, compared to the 0.1% fall in the previous month.
 
On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 1.1% in February, same as in the previous month.
 
Export price index declined 0.9% on an annual basis in February, slower than the 1.7% drop in the preceding month. At the same time, import price index climbed 1.8%, after falling 0.2% in January. Month-on-month, export prices rose to 0.6% in February from 0.4% in the previous month, while import prices climbed to 1.4% from 1%.
 
Meanwhile, the wholesale price index or WPI rose 1.2% annually in February, after falling 0.7% in January. The WPI was up 1.3% compared to the preceding month.
 
Finnish current account surplus narrowed to EUR 268 million in January from EUR 445 million surplus in December, figures released by the Bank of Finland showed Monday.
 
A breakdown of data showed that goods trade surplus rose to EUR 106 million in January from EUR 66 million surplus in December. The surplus on services trade narrowed to EUR 127 million from EUR 421 million. Income surplus expanded to EUR 176 million from EUR 90 million. The deficit on transfers widened to EUR 141 million from EUR 132 million.
 
Further, the capital account surplus remained at EUR 12 million in January, while the financial account balance swung to a surplus of EUR 2.94 billion from a deficit of EUR 1.79 billion recorded in December.
 
In 2009, the current account posted a surplus of EUR 2.3 billion, which represent a contraction to EUR 1.3% of GDP. Current account receipts decreased by some 29% from a year earlier, to EUR 74 billion, and current account expenditures fell by about 27% to EUR 72 billion. In the previous recession of the 1990s, the largest fall in current account receipts and expenditures occurred in 1991, when the former declined by over 7% and the latter by about 7% year-on-year, the central bank said.
 
Tuesday, the Statistics Finland announced that the wages and salaries sum of the whole economy dropped 2.2% on an annual basis in the November to January period, in contrast to the 3.5% growth recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.
 
In the November to January period, the growth in the wages and salaries sum slowed down or turned negative in nearly all main industries, the statistical office said. Wages and salaries sum in manufacturing fell 10.5%, while wages and salaries in construction dropped 4.1%.
 
The wages and salaries sum decreased in financial intermediation by 2.9% in the November to January period, while wages and salaries for trade and other services dropped by 2.6% and 1.8% respectively. However, the wages and salaries sum in the public sector grew slightly faster than the previous year. 
 
SPAIN
 
Madrid's IBEX rounded off a voltile week at 10,990.80, a dip of 0.75%.
 
The Conference Board leading economic index for Spain stood at 109.4 in January, down from 109.6 in the previous month, the Conference Board said on Wednesday.
 
Four of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in January. Negative contributions came from the Spanish equity price index, job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield and the capital equipment component of industrial production.
 
Positive contributions came from the Spanish contribution to the Euro M2 money supply and the order books survey.
 
At the same time, the Conference Board coincident economic index - a measure of current economic activity - fell to 99.9 from 100.1.
 
House prices in Spain slid 4.3% year-on-year in the December quarter of 2009, statistical office INE said on Tuesday.
 
This follows a 7% decline in the preceding quarter.
 
Sharp falls in house prices were recorded in Aragon, the Balearic Islands, Cantabria, Catalunya, Madrid, Navarra and the Basque Country.
 
On the other hand, price increases were recorded in Extremadura and Melilla, while prices were flat in Murcia.
 
On a quarterly basis, house prices were down 0.4% in the December quarter, following the 0.9% decrease in the September quarter.
 
Spain's Inditex, the fast-growing owner of Zara stores, Wednesday reported a jump in fourth-quarter profit and said this year's sales were off to a strong start, as the global consumer made a comeback following last year's economic downturn.
 
Still, some analysts voiced concern that Inditex, which last year soared past Gap Inc (GPS) to become the most-selling fashion retailer in the world, isn't expanding as fast as it could.
 
The La Coruna, northwestern Spain-based clothing giant said net profit for the fiscal fourth quarter ended Jan. 31 rose by 18% to EUR483 million from EUR410 million a year earlier. Sales rose 8.9% in the quarter, to EUR3.33 billion. Both figures were comfortably ahead of analyst expectations.
 
The San Francisco retailer last month reported a 4% rise fourth quarter sales, to $4.24 billion (EUR3.08 billion), and while Gap is closing more stores than it opens, Inditex is opening about a store a day.
 
Chief Executive Pablo Isla said the Spanish company expects to grow its global footprint by between 8% and 10% a year through 2012, and to be present in more than 80 countries by that date.
 
And while analysts were hoping for even stronger growth, Isla said Inditex won't sacrifice quality for quantity, preferring to "cherry pick" good locations for stores. Growth will be geared towards Asia and Europe, while the company will be selective on expansion in the Americas, he said. 
 
PORTUGAL
 
In Lisbon the PSI Generali finished the day Friday on 2,763.80, 0.39% off the pace.
 
Wednesday, the Statistics Portugal announced that the producer price index or PPI rose 2.1% on an annual basis in February, faster than the 1.5% growth in the previous month. A year ago, the PPI was down 2.4%.
 
On a monthly basis, the PPI increased 0.1% in February, slower than the 1.3% growth in the preceding month.
 
Meanwhile, the manufacturing PPI increased 2% year-on-year in February and was up 0.1% compared to the preceding month.
 
Portugal's minority Socialist government wants to build on the passage last week of its 2010 budget and push through a symbolic vote of support for its longer-term plan to cut the country's swollen budget deficit.
 
But the vote of confidence in the four-year plan, which the government hopes to secure on March 25, would not guarantee the passage of separate bills that will make up its deficit-cutting programme.
 
The government's austerity plan calls for the budget deficit to be slashed to 2.8% of gross domestic product in 2013 from 9.3% last year and markets are watching closely for signs of problems implementing it.
 
ITALY
 
Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index dropped 97.85, or 0.4%, to 22,687.30 in Milan, up 0.5% this week.
 
Atlantia climbed 0.9% to 17.46 Euros, its second day of gains. Italy's toll highway operator was raised to "outperform" from "neutral" at Exane BNP Paribas.
 
Brembo, the world's largest manufacturer of disk brakes, rose 2.8% to 5.61 Euros as Centrobanca SpA recommended buying the shares.
 
Eni, Italy's biggest energy company, fell 0.8% to 17.09 Euros as crude oil fell the most in six weeks.
 
Crude oil for April delivery fell $2.10, or 2.5%, to $80.19 a barrel at 11:11 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $80.07, the biggest drop since Feb. 5. Futures are down 1.3% this week.
 
Saipem, Europe's largest oilfield-services provider, gained 1.8% to 27.74 Euros, rebounding from Thursday's 1.1% decline. European oil services stocks were upgraded to "positive" from "neutral" at Barclays Capital, saying commodity prices are at a level that will likely support further investment. 
 
GREECE
 
Athen's Athex Composite ended Friday at 2,049.36, up 1.47%.
 
Rating agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday said it affirmed its 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term sovereign credit ratings on Greece. At the same time, the ratings were removed from CreditWatch, where they had been placed with negative implications in December last year. The outlook, which was stable prior to the CreditWatch placement, is now negative, the rating agency said.
 
On March 5 2010, the Greek parliament approved its third set of deficit reduction measures to reinforce its budgetary consolidation strategy and meet its deficit target of 8.7% of GDP in 2010.
 
"We view the government's fiscal consolidation program as supportive of the ratings at their current level, hence our rating affirmation," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Marko Mrsnik said.
 
S&P views the government's total package of measures as appropriate to achieve its 2010 fiscal target, given the deterioration in the country's growth prospects. Based on the revised growth forecast, the rating agency expect the recession to continue, with real GDP contracting by 4% this year.
 
"Despite the new measures, we think it will be difficult for Greece to comply fully with its planned consolidation path, reducing its deficit to 5.6 % of GDP in 2011 and 2.8% of GDP in 2012, if it does not implement additional measures in the coming years," said Mrsnik.
 
S&P reiterated that its ratings on Greece will continue to depend on its stand-alone credit rating fundamentals. The negative outlook reflects the rating agency's view of the government's ability to sustain reform momentum over the medium term.
 
"It indicates further downgrade potential if the government fails to address negative deviations from its budgetary consolidation path or implement the currently planned structural reforms," Mrsnik said.
 
Tuesday, the General Secretariat of the National Statistical Service of Greece announced that the production index in construction decreased 30.2% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, compared to the 3.8% fall recorded a year ago. In the third quarter, the construction output was down 20.7%.
 
The production index of building construction dipped 31.6% annually in the fourth quarter, compared to the 25.7% fall in the third quarter. At the same time, the production index of civil engineering fell 29.3%.
 
On a sequential basis, the construction output increased 6.2% in the fourth quarter, slower than the 20.5% growth in the previous quarter. The production index of building construction and civil engineering grew by 11.3% and 3.5% respectively.    

The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsCarnival stood out in a choppy London market on Friday amid optimism ahead of the cruise operator's results next week.
 
The shares rose to a three-year high, up 2% to £26.50, on expectations management will point to strong demand and positive pricing in Tuesday's update.
 
There could also be an upgrade to full-year earnings guidance, which currently stands at $2 to $2.20 per share, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch and BarCap.
 
The wider market started strongly but ran out of steam after a mid-morning expiry of options and futures. The FTSE 100 held on to a 21-month high, up 0.1%, or 7.51 points, to 5,650.13. That gave the index a 0.4% gain for the week.
 
Financial stocks set the pace on Friday after Lloyds Banking Group said it should turn a profit in 2010.
 
Lloyds surged 8.2% to 60p and Barclays gained 1.3% to 357½p. Royal Bank of Scotland, which was hosting a seminar on its corporate arm, added 4.7% to 44p.
 
Old Mutual gained 1.2% to 126½p, helped by Goldman Sachs raising its target price to 145p.
 
On its final day before relegation from the Footsie, and ahead of results on Wednesday, Resolution gained 1% to 74p.
 
Deutsche Bank argued that Resolution's numbers should cast "a spotlight on an unreasonably cheap valuation," with the broker putting a 100p standalone valuation on the stock or 90p if management can find something to buy.
 
Man Group, which has a trading update on Wednesday, rallied 1.3% to 244p following several broker downgrades earlier in the week. JPMorgan argued that, with forecasts already cut, the chances of a negative surprise in the update were lessened.
 
JPMorgan also dismissed concerns Man will cut its dividend, which currently promises a yield of about 12%. While cutting the pay-out would make little difference to the company, it would send a downbeat message on earnings growth that management normally avoid, it argued.
 
Airline engineers gained after Boeing said it would increase production to meet recovering demand. Smiths Group rose 2.3% to £11.00 ahead of results next week, while Rolls-Royce rose 2.2% to 601p.
 
BAE Systems jumped 2.4% to 385½p, a move dealers said likely reflected a squeeze related to the day's options expiry.
 
Miners and oil companies led the fallers following an unexpected interest rate hike in India.
 
Vedanta Resources, India's largest copper miner, was down 3.1% to £26.22, while Rajasthan-focused Cairn Energy lost 2.6% to 384p.
 
Xstrata was 2.3% weaker at £11.43 after chief executive Mick Davis sold £5.4m shares to pay a tax bill.
 
BHP Billiton drifted 1% to £21.85 amid a second day of speculation about potential oil acquisitions. BG Group, up 1% to £12.02½, was once again connected to the rumour, along with smaller targets such as Australia's Woodside Petroleum.
 
Among the mid-caps, Game Group rose 3.5% to 100p as Collins Stewart issued "buy" advice based on results from US peer Gamestop. Game shares have jumped 25% in two weeks, helped by bid speculation.
 
Mitchells & Butlers, due to announce a strategy review on Wednesday, was 1.3% higher at 291p. Deutsche Bank expected an accelerated disposal programme, opening up the possibility of a special dividend, and saw potential for debt to be paid off via a sale and lease-back of unsecuritised pubs.
 
Integrated Asset Management will be in focus on Monday morning.
 
Just as the market closed on Friday night, the fund management group announced a tie-up with JRJ Group, an investment group started by Jeremy Isaacs, the former European head of Lehman Brothers, and Roger Nagioff, another former Lehman executive.
 
Under the terms of the deal, Integrated and its partners have agreed to invest at least $15m in the JRJ subsidiary that controls Marex, one of the top brokers on the London Metal Exchange.
 
In return, JRJ has said it will subscribe for a 10.6% stake in Integrated at 33p a share. Integrated was flat at 24¾p.
 
Stockbroker Collins Stewart rose 4.6% to 79p amid takeover rumours. Analysts said bid speculation could not be ruled out because Collins Stewart is cheap and trades at a discount to its peers, with Nomura or Macquarie flagged as possible buyers.
 
In addition, traders said Arden Partners had cleared an overhang, placing about 8m shares for a client with several institutions.
 
Gulfsands Petroleum added 1.7% to 318p after the Syrian-focused exploration group rejected a takeover approach of 350p a share from an Indian oil company. Collins Stewart said Gulfsands would be worth 400p a share if the company announced a reserve upgrade alongside its forthcoming results.
 
Delta rose 2% to 194¼p on talk that hedge funds now have a big enough position to block the 185p-a-share bid from Valmont.  
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

The benchmark Nikkei gained 80.69 points to 10,824.72. It fell 1% the previous day, down from a two-month intraday high of 10,864.30 struck on Wednesday.
 
The broader Topix added 0.9% to 948.93.
 
The Nikkei rose 0.7% on the week, for its sixth straight weekly gain.
 
Some 1.8 billion shares changed hands on the Tokyo exchange's first section, sliding from a seven-week high of 2.8 billion shares hit last Friday.
 
Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by nearly 3 to 1.
 
Market players said investors were reluctant to actively take positions ahead of a three-day weekend. Japanese markets will be closed on Monday for a national holiday.
 
Shares of exporters rose to help lead the market higher. Digital camera and office equipment maker Canon gained 2.4% to 4,120 Yen and electronics device firm Kyocera Corp rose 1.8% to 8,710 Yen.  
 
Japan's second-largest retailer Aeon Co rose 2.4% to 1,012 Yen after it said it was likely to post an annual operating profit of 128.8 billion Yen, beating market expectations thanks to a sharp recovery in the second half.
 
But property shares retreated after a government survey showed Japanese land prices fell for a second straight year in 2009. Commercial land prices sank to the lowest on records going back to 1974 as demand for office space and housing continued to slump in the wake of the financial crisis.
 
Mitsui Fudosan shed 1.8% to 1,584 Yen and Mitsubishi Estate slipped 2% to 1,447 Yen.
 
The news follows drops in property stocks a day earlier after Morgan Stanley downgraded the sector and both major developers.
 
Nikon Corp fell 3% to 2,031 Yen after Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the maker of digital cameras and chip-making equipment to "neutral" from "buy" and removed it from its "conviction list".
 
In a note to clients, Goldman said a recovery scenario for semiconductor production equipment was largely priced in.
 
SOUTH KOREA
 
The Korean market was supported by gains in auto stocks. Hyundai Motor rose 3.1%.
 
Shipbuilders, however, extended their losses on news late Wednesday that a European client had cancelled orders for Hyundai Heavy to build five oil carriers. Hyundai Heavy was down 0.7% and Daewoo Shipbuilding lost 0.5%.
 
South Korea's Kospi was up 0.7% at 1,681.15.
 
Kia Motors rose 5% to 23,950 won, and was the most- actively traded stock by value in South Korea. The company said it will add a 100 million-Euro ($136 million) engine unit to its factory in Slovakia.
 
Institutions purchased a net 34.6 billion won worth of shares and retail investors offloaded a net 308 billion won worth. Advancers outnumbered decliners 478 to 301, with 106 issues ending flat.
 
Trading volume stood at 433.3 million shares worth 4.13 trillion Won, compared with 424 million shares worth 4.7 trillion Won in the previous session. The KOSPI 200 June futures index ended up 1.25 points at 221.35, and the KOSPI 200 spot index rose 1.46 points to 220.48.
 
The junior Kosdaq market rose 0.62% to close at 527.58.
 
HONG KONG
 
Hong Kong stocks rose Friday tracking gains on Wall Street, with the benchmark index up 0.19% or 40.15 points to close at 21,370.82.
 
The Hang Seng Index opened 0.14% higher at 21,359.55 on Friday. It traded between 21,257.80 and 21,389.00 during the day's session. Turnover shrank to 58.73 billion HK Dollars (7.58 billion US Dollars) from Thursday's 61.75 billion HK Dollars (7.96 billion HK Dollars).
 
Analysts said the local market will continue rising next week due to the likelihood of strong 2009 earnings results and companies' upbeat expectations for 2010.
 
Four sub-indices all gained ground. The utilities sub-index rose most at 1.17%, followed by the properties at 0.35%, the commerce and industry at 0.18% and the finance at 0.05%.
 
Market heavyweight HSBC fell 0.50 HK Dollars, or 0.61%, to close at 80.95 HK Dollars and its local unit Hang Seng Bank closed down 0.55%. China Mobile edged up 0.20% to 76. 55 HK Dollars.
 
Leading Chinese mainland banks all ended higher. Bank of China went up 1.00% to 4.03 HK Dollars. China Construction Bank increased 0.64% to 6.26 HK Dollars and ICBC gained 0.17% to 5.91 HK Dollars and Bank of Communications, 0.57% to 8.84 HK Dollars.
 
Hong Kong property stocks rose. Cheung Kong, the flagship of Hong Kong's richest man Li Ka-shing, moved up 1.10 HK Dollars, or 1.12%, at 99.75 HK Dollars. Sun Hung Kai Properties, the leading residential housing developer in Hong Kong, slid 0.09% at 118.20 HK Dollars.
 
As for oil shares, PetroChina up 1.32%, Sinopec rose 1. 59%, while offshore oil producer CNOOC down 1.09%.
 
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index swelled 54.00 points, or 0.44% to close at 12,262.36.
 
CHINA
 
China's shares gained Friday to end the week up 1.8% after major state-owned companies reported strong profits and a metals producer announced an African iron mining venture with Australia's Rio Tinto.
 
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.7%, or 21.7 points, to close at 3,067.75. The Shenzhen Composite Index for China's smaller second exchange added 0.8%, or 9.47 points, to 1,181.5.
 
The market was boosted by the government's announcement that profits at major state-owned companies in January and February jumped 89% from the same time last year and profit at more than 500 publicly traded companies rose 22%.
 
Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, soared by the daily 10% limit to 13.65 RMB after the company announced its deal with Rio Tinto to develop an iron ore reserve in Guinea in West Africa.
 
Other metals producers also gained. Jiangxi Copper Ltd. rose 2.2% to 35.68 RMB and Yunnan Copper Ltd. gained 2.7% to 26.01 RMB.
 
Banks were little changed. The country's biggest commercial lender, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., was flat at 4.86 RMB. Bank of China Ltd. also was unchanged at 4.15 RMB.
 
Airlines gained as oil prices drifted lower in Asia following a monthlong rally. Air China Ltd. gained 6.6% to 12.32 RMB while China Southern Airlines Ltd. rose 4.2% to 7.20 RMB.
 
In currency markets, China's RMB strengthened to 6.8259 to the US Dollar, down from Thursday's 6.8265.
 
TAIWAN
 
Taiwan's share prices closed higher Friday with the weighted index, the market's key barometer, moving up 11.57 points, or 0.14%, to close at 7,897.91.
 
The local bourse opened at 7,899.01, the day's highest level, and dropped to a low of 7,859.29 before rebounding. Market turnover totaled NT$114.24 billion (US$3.6 billion).
 
Five of eight major stock categories gained ground, with construction issues moving up the most at 1.3%. Cement stocks rose 0.6%, machinery and electronic shares advanced 0.2%, and both paper and pulp stocks and banking and financial shares grew 0.1%.
 
Foodstuff issues fell 0.3% and textile shares slid 0.1%. Plastics and chemical issues were unchanged.
 
Gainers outnumbered losers 1,539 to 1,369, with 315 stocks remaining unchanged.
 
Foreign investors and Chinese QDIIs were net buyers of NT$2.24 billion in shares.
 
THE PHILIPPINES
 
Local stocks finished lower on Friday as investors took a breather from a 4-day advance.
 
The Philippine Stock Exchange composite index fell 3.72 points or 0.12% to 3,097.23.
 
The broader all-share index rose 0.98 points or 0.05% to 1,945.48.
 
Losers thumped gainers, 56 to 37, while 67 issues were unchanged.
 
A total of 850 million shares worth P2.96 billion were traded.
 
Market heavyweight Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. led the market's decline, dropping P30 or 1.16% to P2,550.
 
Geothermal power firm Energy Development Corp., on the other hand, went down P0.05 or 1.05% to P4.70.
 
Bucking the downtrend were Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC), which rose P0.15 or 5.08% to P3.10, and Ginebra San Miguel Inc., which ended up P1 or 4.7% at P22.50.
 
At early trade, MPIC rose to as high as P3.15, its highest level since early November 2009, on anticipation that the firm will win a bid for the 246-megawatt Angat hydroelectric power plant.
 
Investors are betting MPIC's earnings will be boosted if its joint venture with conglomerate Ayala Corp. and power producer First Gen Corp. secures the plant, which the government is sellling.
 
Meanwhile, shares of Ginebra, a unit of diversifying conglomerate San Miguel Corp., jumped sharply ahead of a possible sale.
 
"Ginebra is one of those companies that San Miguel was planning to sell. Since it is majority owned by San Miguel, if it's sold at a premium, there could be a tender offer," said an analyst at a local brokerage.
 
A tender offer is triggered in the Philippines if a company buys more than 35% stake in another firm, requiring it to make an offer for the remaining shares.
 
Media reports have said San Miguel is planning to sell Ginebra to another subsidiary, San Miguel Brewery Inc.
 
SINGAPORE
 
Singapore share prices ended flat on Friday, after profit-taking late in the session trimmed earlier gains.
 
The key blue-chip Straits Times Index was up most of the day on strengthening convictions that US interest rates will stay lower for longer.
 
But the index later gave up most of its gains to finish 1.76 points higher at 2,915.70. Overall volume was 1.05 billion shares worth S$1.20 billion. Gainers beat losers 235 to 227.
 
Among the losers, DBS Group Holdings dropped 3.15% to S$14.12. Property developer CapitaLand was 0.49% lower at S$4.04 while Singapore Airlines fell 1.03% to S$15.44.
 
However continued catch-up buying among banking stocks continued, with United Overseas Bank ending 0.9% higher at S$19.44 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp gaining 0.2% at S$8.90.
 
CapitaMalls Asia, which on Monday will replace Cosco Corp as a component stock in the STI, rose 2.6% to S$2.39.
 
CWT ended 1.9% stronger at S$1.06 after its real estate investment unit Cache Logistics Trust announced plans to raise up to S$417 million in an initial public offering. 
 
MALAYSIA
 
Share prices closed lower on Friday due to continued selling in selected heavyweights, dealers said.
 
At 5pm, the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) fell 5.34 points to 1,296.60 after opening 0.11 of a point lower at 1,301.83 this morning.
 
A dealer said investors were reluctant to take position ahead of the weekend and also over renewed concerns that China may further tighten liquidity by lifting bank reserve ratios.
 
"Trading was cautious Friday with the market also undergoing some correction due to the recent rally," the dealer explained.
 
The dealer said strong interest in billionaire Ananda Krishnan-controlled companies, perceived as the next privatisation target, helped cap further losses in the market.
 
Tanjong plc increased 16 sen to RM17.96 while Measat improved 16 sen to RM2.76.
 
At close of trading Friday, the Finance Index fell 57.10 points to 11,497.73, the Plantation Index dropped 36.98 points to 6,353.15 and the Industrial Index slipped 16.24 points to 2,617.91.
 
The FBM Emas Index meanwhile, dipped 35.06 points to 8,723.16 and the FBM70 fell 55.69 points to 8,526.59.
 
The FBM Ace Index, however, increased 1.49 points to 4,181.04.
 
Decliners outpaced advancers by 357 to 278 while 286 counters were unchanged, 427 untraded and 30 others suspended.
 
Trading volume stood at 574.759 million shares worth RM1.122 billion, compared with the 677.371 million shares valued at RM1.217 billion on Thursday.
 
Among the heavyweights, Maybank declined six sen to RM7.24, Sime Darby fell nine sen to RM8.44 and CIMB dropped eight sen to RM13.44.
 
Maxis, however, increased three sen to RM5.30.
 
For the volume leaders, KNM lost half a sen to 78.5 sen while both Talam Corp and Astro were unchanged at 11.5 sen and RM4.23 respectively.
 
Turnover on the Main Market fell to 501.328 million shares valued at RM1.099 billion from the 600.621 million shares valued at RM1.198 billion Thursday.
 
The ACE Market volume was lower at 38.752 million shares worth RM6.864 million from 40.863 million shares worth RM6.147 million previously.
 
Warrants declined to 18.216 million units valued at RM2.902 million from 24.789 million units valued at RM4.352 million Thursday.
 
INDONESIA
 
Share prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange closed higher on Friday.
 
The composite index increased 5.732 points (0.2%) to close at 2,742.9 with 4.6 billion shares worth 4.8 trillion rupiah (some 526 million US Dollars) changing hands.
 
In Jakarta, gainers included gas distributor Perusahaan Gas Negara which rose 3.7% and Unilever Indonesia which gained 2.1% while Bank Danamon fell 4.6%.
 
THAILAND
 
Thai stocks scaled a 20-month peak on Friday as investors snapped up banks and energy shares on renewed confidence in its economy.
 
In Bangkok, the SET index climbed 2.1% to its best intraday peak since June 30, 2008, with banking shares surging 3.9% to the highest since October, 2007.
 
Siam Commercial Bank jumped 4.8%, Kasikornbank rose 5.2% and Bangkok Bank gained 3.6%. Top energy firm PTT rose 1.6% and its energy unit PTT Exploration added 1.4%.
 
Foreign investors were net buyers of Thai shares for 19 days on Friday, according to Thomson Reuters data. Thailand rose 5.6% for the week, Southeast Asia's best performer, ahead of Indonesia's 2.87% gain.
 
Investors are hopeful that a resumption of red-shirted protests over the weekend would be peaceful, with supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra announcing a new plan to scatter on the street, aiming to pararylze traffic in Bangkok.
 
INDIA
 
India's central bank unexpectedly raised rates for the first time since July 2008 after inflation accelerated to a 16- month high. The Reserve Bank of India increased the benchmark reverse repurchase rate to 3.5% from a record-low 3.25% and the repurchase rate to 5% from 4.75%, according to a statement in Mumbai.
 
The surprise decision comes a month before the bank's scheduled monetary policy meeting.
 
Indian shares traded flat for most of Friday, but ended higher on gains in telecoms and some banks, as well as firm Asian markets.
 
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index rose 58.97 points, or 0.3%, to end at 17,578.23.
 
The benchmark index, which moved between 17,502.14 and 17,600.87 during the day, has risen 2.4% this week, recording its sixth straight weekly gain.
 
Rating agency Standard & Poor's Thursday revised its outlook on the country to "stable" from "negative."
 
On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty added 16.90 points, or 0.3%, to close at 5,262.80.
 
Total trading volume on the BSE fell to INR48.85 billion from Thursday's INR54.25 billion. Decliners outnumbered gainers 1,459 to 1,381, while 110 stocks were unchanged.
 
Telecom shares jumped ahead of a deadline to submit applications to bid for the much-awaited third-generation bandwidth auction and on strong subscriber growth in February.
 
Bharti Airtel soared 4.0% to INR311.85, while rival Reliance Communications rose 2.0% to INR167.65.
 
A 3G license would fetch these companies hefty premiums for multimedia services, offering some respite from shrinking margins due to intense competition.
 
But there are concerns about competitive bidding.
 
Banks were mixed. State Bank of India climbed 1.4% to INR2,058.50, but peer ICICI Bank slid 0.6% to INR954.85. Mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp. sagged 1.6% to INR2,693.05.
 
Technology stocks slipped on profit-taking, but industry watchers continue to be optimistic about the sector.
 
Software exporter Infosys Technologies dipped 0.4% to INR2,775.10, while Tata Consultancy Services ended 0.8% down at INR820.20.
 
Motorcycle maker Hero Honda Motors was up 1.8% at INR1,968.40, while property developer DLF lost 1.4% to INR312.70. 
 
AUSTRALIA
 
The ASX 200 was 0.2% firmer at 4872.2 after strong economic leads from overseas. There was no real theme in terms of sector leadership, however information technology and industrials added the most percentage points.
 
Whilst the market didn't power ahead, it was very positive to see it holding its ground rather than succumbing to a typical bout of Friday afternoon profit taking. This would have been the case in recent weeks, so the fact that participants are willing to hold positions longer than a few days is an important change in investor sentiment.
 
It was also encouraging to see gains not reliant on the major sectors like financials and materials.
 
Economic data, both locally and globally continues to point towards an economic recovery that is slowly gathering momentum. Of course there are a few bumps on the way, but the underlying trend is up, for both markets and data.
 
With a light week of economic data ahead, both locally and abroad, it wouldn't surprise us to see the current lack of volatility continue and the market trade in a fairly tight range.
 
Interestingly, in an economic note from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, it raised Australia's GDP outlook, saying this week's reports of a 15% surge in dwelling commencements in 4Q and strong industrial trends survey were the major catalyst. The broker went on to say that not only have business and consumer sentiment held up incredibly well, but the leading index projects above trend growth for the next few quarters. It projects 2010-11 GDP growth of 3.8% and 3.7% respectively, up from prior 3.4% forecasts for both years.             
 
The consumer staples sector was the best performer, closing 0.9% higher thanks to a gain of 2.2% in Wesfarmers shares.
 
The energy sector added significant point as well, rising 0.7% despite weaker overnight leads. Paladin Energy topped the gainers, finishing 2.5% higher while heavyweight Woodside Petroleum added 1% and Oil Search rose 0.5%.
 
After Arrow Energy went into a trading halt this morning, Royal Bank of Scotland said in a broker note that it was very confident of an improved bid for Arrow Energy from Shell-PetroChina, given both parties have been in active discussions for days, probably thrashing out a revised offer. The broker raised Arrow's target price to $5.45 from $5.00. RBS said it senses a revised, improved bid will be announced any day now, and expects it to be supported by the Arrow board.  
 
The financial sector also managed to add a few points, up 0.2% for the day. QBE Insurance Group was the best performer up 1% while three of the big four banks were up between 0.4% and 0.9%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia bucked the trend, finishing lower by 0.7%.   
 
On the downside, the materials sector posted moderate losses on the session, closing down 0.2%.  While BHP managed to eke out a minor gain of 0.1%, Rio Tinto ended the session lower by 1% after announcing a joint venture arrangement with Chinalco for the development of its Simandou project in Guinea.  The major gold miners were mixed with Lihir Gold adding 1.6% while Newcrest Mining closed down 0.8%.
 
In a comment from a Sydney-based commodities trader, they believe the nickel market has a strong outlook for at least the next couple of months. Support is set to come from a lack of LME stock in the US and industry-preferred nickel pellets / cathodes. Nearly 90% of LME stock is in nickel plates, which need to be cut prior to going into steel furnaces. The trader believes the issues at Sudbury and now Kwinana show the outlook will stay firm for now. Vale's Sudbury nickel operation in Canada has been on strike for about eight months now.
 
BHP Billiton's Kwinana nickel refinery in Western Australia has also been offline for two weeks due to hydrogen gas supply. The trader believes producers will be tempted to hedge around current prices.     
 
NEW ZEALAND
 
New Zealand shares rose, as Kathmandu Holdings lead gains in retailers following its upbeat results, while Telecom Corp. drifted lower.
 
The NZX50 climbed for the second-day running, rising 9.718, or 0.3% to 3230.40. Within the index, 19 stocks rose, 14 fell and were 17 unchanged. Turnover was $76.6 million.
 
Stocks rose across Asia Friday, heading for the sixth week of gains, after figures showed the US economy, the world's biggest, is continuing to expand with little inflation, ensuring interest rates will be kept low for an extended period. New Zealand's benchmark index, or the NZX50, was near a two-month high.
 
Kathmandu which beat its prospectus forecast Thursday, topped the gainers on the NZX 50 for the second day, rising 8.7% to $2.38.
 
Clothing chain Hallenstein Glasson Holdings rose 2.8% to $3.60.
 
Warehouse Group rose 1% to $3.90. New Zealand's largest retailer's stationery division's first-half $3 million EBIT was about $1 million ahead of Forsyth Barr analyst Guy Hallwright's forecast, according to ShareChat.
 
Telecom fell Friday, down 1.8%, to $2.11. After climbing Thursday out of a two-day slump, the phone company has dropped further. Deutsche Bank analyst Sameer Chopra thinks it could drop to 18 cents from 21, while Craigs Investment Partners Geoff Zame picks a fall to 22 cents from 24 cents according to the N.Z.
 
PGG Wrightson was the biggest gainer on the NZX50 Friday, rising 3.5% to 59 cents a share. With farm sales at low ebb, the rural service company increased its market share in transactions of economically viable farms, demonstrating a shift in the way the market is operating.
 
Auckland International Airport rose 2.1% to $1.95. Statistics New Zealand's release of the International Travel and Migration figures for the year ended Feb. 2010 Friday, showed a 2.5% increase in overall inbound tourism, with a jump in visitors from Australia.
 
Restaurant Brands, which has swelled sales at its KFC outlets and arrested the decline in its Pizza Hut stores, gained 2.6% to $1.95.
 
Rakon was the biggest decliner Friday, falling 7.1% to 92   
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesCrude oil prices briefly fell below the $80-a-barrel mark on Friday as the Dollar strengthened against the Euro amid renewed uncertainty over prospects for a rescue package for Greece.
 
Nymex April West Texas Intermediate fell to a low of $79.86 before recovering to trade $2 lower at $80.20 a barrel, down 1.3% this week.
 
ICE May Brent fell $1.98 to $79.50 a barrel, down 0.6% for the five days.
 
Opec's decision this week to maintain its current production quotas had been widely trailed and came as no surprise.
 
However, compliance with agreed output targets has slipped badly over the past year and traders expressed surprise that Opec did not bother to reiterate the need for better discipline by its members.
 
Deutsche Bank said the next test for the commodities sector - and specifically industrial metals - would be a slowdown in Chinese fixed asset investment and loan growth.
 
Gold consolidated above the $1,100-a-troy-ounce level this week, taking its lead from fluctuations in the Dollar. Gold slipped 1.6% to $1,108 on Friday, slightly up over the week.
 
Palladium rose 1.2% to $467 a troy ounce, touching its highest level for a year at $481 on Wednesday, helped by rising investment demand, strong China car sales and US car market recovery.
 
The sugar market struggled to stabilise after recent selling pressure as buyers remained on the sidelines.
 
Over the week, ICE May raw sugar lost 3.8% to 18.65 cents a Pound while Liffe May white sugar fell 2.4% to $528 a tonne.
 
Among the base metals, copper was flat over the week at $7,435 a tonne but supply disruptions and evidence of a recovery in demand from steelmakers helped push nickel up 3.3% to $22,470 a tonne. 
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Euro came under renewed pressure this week as fears over Greece's fiscal problems weighed on the single currency.
 
Greek debt concerns were thrust back into the spotlight on Wednesday after a German government spokesman suggested that Athens should turn to the International Monetary Fund, not its Eurozone partners, for financial aid.
 
Over the week, the Euro fell 1.8% to $1.3517 against the Dollar, lost 1.7% to Y122.36 against the Yen and dropped 0.8% to £0.8988 against the Pound.
 
The Euro also dropped close to a record low against the Swiss franc as speculation mounted that the Swiss National Bank was set to abandon its policy of intervening to stem strength in the franc.
 
The Swiss franc rose to a fresh 17-month peak of SFr1.4315 against the Euro Thursday. This took the unit within touching distance of the record high of SFr1.4296 that it hit against the Euro in October 2008.
 
The SNB has been intervening in the currency markets since last March to keep a lid on appreciation as it battled against deflation. But improving Swiss economic data have raised speculation that the central bank will step away from the currency markets. 
 
Indeed, since its policy meeting in December, the SNB has allowed the franc to appreciate, saying it was intervening only to stop "excessive appreciation" against the Euro.
 
The Swiss franc's gains gathered pace on Thursday, however, after Jean-Pierre Danthine, an SNB board member, said current loose Swiss monetary policy could not be maintained indefinitely.
 
He also warned of the need to prepare for a "return to higher rates, with foreign exchange rates being set by market forces".
 
Elsa Lignos of RBC Capital Markets said that, after the remarks, there had been no sign in the currency markets of the SNB, which must have been well aware of the reaction that Mr Danthine's comments would provoke.
 
Over the week, the Euro fell 1.4% to SFr1.4358 against the Swiss franc.
 
The Pound endured a volatile week, rising sharply after UK February unemployment figures came in better than expected but losing ground after a bank of England official warned of the possibility of a double-dip recession in the UK.
 
Over the week, the Pound lost 1% to $1.5030 against the Dollar.
 
The Dollar was little changed against the Yen at Y90.55 on the week.
 
The Fed's commitment this week to keep rates low boosted hopes for global growth and supported commodity-linked and emerging market currencies, but there was some profit-taking Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India surprised investors by rasing interest rates. Over the week, the Canadian Dollar climbed 0.3% to C$1.0153 against the Dollar while the New Zealand Dollar rose 0.8% to $0.7069.
 
In South Africa The Rand was bid at 7.34 to the Dollar, from 7.29 when the JSE's closed Thursday.
 
Rounding off currencies as usual here in China, the RMB was down against the US Dollar as were most Asian currencies due to the US Dollar's temporary strength Friday.
 
On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.8265 around 0930 GMT, up from Thursday's close of CNY6.8261. It traded between CNY6.8258 and CNY6.8267. 
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's banks are financially strong enough to withstand the pressure on profits as non- performing loans increase after record credit growth, according to Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.
 
Banks' loans may expand 20% this year after a 30% increase in 2009, the rating company said in a report Friday. Standard & Poor's expects the soured debt to remain less than 10% of total advances for the next two years.
 
"The potentially steep rise in NPLs and other problem loans will be the biggest challenge for the banking sector in the next few years," Ryan Tsang, a Standard & Poor's credit analyst, said in the report. "But we think the sector will continue to have sufficiently good profitability, reasonable NPL ratios, and adequate capitalization to keep the bad loans at a manageable level."
 
Government-related urban development investment corporations that have issued debt to fund infrastructure projects may generate a "significant" proportion of non- performing loans, Standard & Poor's said.
 
China may be forced to bail out banks that offered loans for local government-projects under the unprecedented stimulus program unleashed in 2008, Citigroup Inc. economist Shen Minggao and Northwestern University professor Victor Shih said earlier this month. Yan Qingmin, head of the banking regulator's Shanghai branch, said March 5 that the nation plans to nullify guarantees provided by local governments for some loans.
 
Chinese officials pledged last week to limit the risks posed by the investment vehicles, which circumvent restrictions on local government-borrowing to channel money into stimulus projects.
 
*******************************
 
The World Bank on Wednesday revised up its 2010 economic growth outlook for China and said the country may need to tighten its monetary policy eventually to address risks of asset price bubbles.
 
In its latest China quarterly update, the bank revised up its growth projection for this year to 9.5% from 8.7% in its East Asia and Pacific update released in November and 9% expansion predicted in January's global economic outlook. The Chinese government targets growth of 8% this year. Despite the global recession, China's economy grew 8.7% in 2009, and the growth momentum continued in the first months of 2010, the bank added. Growth may ease to 8.7% in 2011.
 
"We project 9.5% GDP growth for this year, with a shift in the composition," said Ardo Hansson, lead economist for China. "Government-led investment is bound to decelerate. But, exports are likely to continue to recover amidst a pick up in the global economy, real estate activity is likely to grow strongly this year, and consumption should remain solid."
 
China's inflation is unlikely to reach high rates in 2010, with global price pressures likely to be subdued amidst large spare capacity internationally, the bank said. But, it will be in a positive territory this year, after being negative in 2009. Moreover, external surplus is likely to remain broadly unchanged this year.
 
On policies, the World Bank said the costs and risks of sustaining the current expansionary policy stance would increase over time. It noted that the current macroeconomic conditions do not call for a major tightening. But, risks of asset price bubbles and misallocation of resources amidst abundant liquidity need to be mitigated and the overall monetary stance will have to be tightened eventually, the bank stated.
 
"The macroeconomic policy stance will have to be tighter this year than in 2009," said Louis Kuijs, senior economist and main author of the update. "Unlike in most other countries, overall output in China is close to potential. Thus, China needs a different macro stance than most other countries."
 
Based on the economic projections, the bank said an unchanged or only slightly higher fiscal deficit would fit best in 2010. It noted that flexibility in the implementation of 2010 budget is highly crucial given the remaining uncertainty about the world economy. About the need for monetary tightening, the bank said inflation expectations can be contained by a tighter monetary stance and a stronger exchange rate. It added that monetary policy has a key role to play in containing risks of asset price inflation.
 
"The case for a larger role for interest rates in monetary policy is strong. If policymakers remain concerned about interest rate sensitive capital flows, more exchange rate flexibility would help," the World Bank said.
 
China faces immense international pressure to let the RMB rise. The country is accused of artificially keeping the RMB rate low to bolster its exports. Thursday, Commerce Ministry spokesman Yao Jian said the US' criticism that RMB exchange rate is the cause for China's trade surplus and the US' trade deficit is "groundless",.
 
"The trade imbalance is not something that the exchange rate can resolve," Yao said in Beijing. "Politicizing exchange-rate issues is counterproductive to global efforts in tackling the financial crisis." He noted that China's trade surplus is not caused by the RMB exchange rate, but is an outcome and phenomenon of globalization.
 
*******************************
 
Around 51% of Chinese consumers were dissatisfied with the current inflation rate, according to a survey conducted by the People's Bank of China, reports said Tuesday. That was the highest proportion since the survey began in 1999.
 
Annual inflation in China had increased to 2.7% in February from January's 1.5%. The rise in prices was mainly driven by a 6.2% surge in food prices.
 
The survey found that the future price expectations index dipped to 65.6 from 73.4 in the prior survey period.
 
A separate survey showed that nearly 51.7% of bankers forecast no change in monetary policy in the coming quarter. At the same time, only 14.8% of participants assessed the current monetary policy as "relatively loose" versus 26.6% in the prior quarter.
 
Foreign direct investment in China rose in February for the seventh month in a row, the Ministry of Commerce said Monday. FDI climbed 1.1% in February on a yearly basis to US$5.9 billion. However, the growth rate eased from January's 7.8%. Combined investment for January and February rose 4.9% from the same period of last year.
 
*******************************
 
Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., the Chinese carmaker seeking to buy Ford Motor Co.'s Volvo Cars, may take control of Manganese Bronze Holdings Plc, maker of the iconic London black cab, the UK-based company said.
 
Geely's Hong Kong-listed unit may raise its stake in the company to 51% from 19.9% by buying new shares at 70 pence apiece, Mark Fryer, Manganese's finance director, said in an interview. The Coventry, England-based automaker, which would raise about 14 million Pounds ($21.5 million) from the share sale, will spearhead Geely's plans to sell its own saloon cars in Europe, he said.
 
"Our future will be both as a manufacturer of black cabs in Coventry, although more of the parts will be coming from China, and an assembler and distributor for Geely vehicles," Fryer said Thursday.
 
Zhang Xiaodong, a Hangzhou, China-based spokesman for Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, referred questions to the Hong Kong-listed unit, Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. Lawrence Ang, an executive director at the unit, didn't immediately answer calls to his office and mobile phones. His assistant, Daniel Dai, declined to comment.
 
Manganese's LTI Vehicles unit and its predecessor companies have made cabs for the London market since 1948, according to LTI's Web site. Geely in early 2009 began manufacturing black cabs in Shanghai for the Asian market, as well as parts for the UK company's Coventry plant, under a joint-venture agreement.
 
Geely Auto rose 3.5% to close at HK$4.16 in Hong Kong trading. The shares have declined 1.9% this year.
 
In a statement Thursday, Manganese said parts for its TX4 vehicles will be made in Shanghai, in a move that would eliminate about 60 jobs at its Coventry plant.
 
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is encouraging companies in the world's third-largest economy to acquire technology and take on foreign rivals. Geely unveiled the Emgrand, its first homegrown model specifically designed for Western markets, in December and is seeking to use Manganese as its European distributor.
 
Shanghai-based SAIC Motor Corp. paid $116 million for the design rights to MG Rover Group Ltd.'s Rover 25 and 75 cars in 2005 and became the owner of MG's plant in Birmingham, England, after a 2007 merger with Nanjing Automobile Group Corp.
 
Some previous attempts by Chinese automakers to expand overseas failed. Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Co. said last month its purchase of General Motors Co.' Hummer brand was blocked by Chinese regulators as the gasoline-guzzling vehicles didn't fit the government's energy efficiency policy.
 
Geely and Manganese need to agree on a range of commercial issues, including warranty policies and translation of handbooks, before the deal can go ahead, Fryer said.
 
"If you look back, you would have thought it was a stretch that British people would take to Japanese or South Korean cars," Fryer said. "But Hyundai and Kia sold about 30,000 vehicles each in the UK last year and we sold 1,724. So it's not going to take much to significantly increase the size and scale of our business."
 
Geely became Manganese's biggest shareholder in 2007 after taking a 23% stake as part of a 53 million-Pound venture agreement. That holding was diluted to 19.9% after a share placement in June.
 
Making components in Shanghai for shipment to Coventry has led to cost savings of 1,200 Pounds per vehicle so far, with a further 800 Pounds expected within six months.
 
Manganese Thursday reported a 6.9 million-Pound 2009 loss.
 
"Unfortunately, we have had to make redundancies in Coventry, but we are losing money and we can't keep relying on shareholders to keep funding the business," Fryer said.
 
China is aiming for 10%, or an $85 billion share, of the world's vehicle and auto-parts sales by 2015, the nation's commerce ministry said in November.    
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 Despite the stock market's three-week rally, volumes have been thin, signaling a certain lack of appetite/momentum just as benchmark indexes around the world test levels that have blocked previous attempts to push higher.
 
If anything, wariness will be heightened by the similarity between current chart patterns and those seen in early January, just before stocks suffered a sharp correction.
 
With the corporate earnings season drawing to an end, the focus is returning to macroeconomic factors.
 
Renewed concern about Greece or any disappointment on the data (US home sales and durable goods, Germany's Ifo index, flash PMIs or UK retail sales data are all due out) could be the trigger for a setback after a period of subsiding stock market volatility.
 
Declines in peripheral Euro zone yields and spreads versus Bunds, and the gains that were seen in the Euro and stocks on abating concern about sovereign credit risks, have started reversing because of a game of brinkmanship being played out before EU leaders meet on March 25-26.
 
Germany's calls for rule changes that would allow Euro zone members to be ejected from the bloc and Greece's warning that it might have to go to the IMF if its European peers do not offer timely help are raising the stakes for all sides.
 
A swift resolution will be needed to avoid renewed pressure on the Euro and a widening out again of yield spreads - a development that would make life harder for Greece, which needs to raise more money.
 
Rising demand for US Dollars, which has pushed up short-term interbank borrowing costs, is reflecting some nerves in money markets about major central banks' moves to gradually start mopping up liquidity that has driven rates to historic lows.
 
Euro zone money supply and bank lending data next week could sharpen the focus on whether the European Central Bank is being too optimistic by laying the groundwork for the unwinding of liquidity injections.
 
This debate over major central banks' balancing acts will be all the more in the spotlight if the inflation data next week (Japan and UK CPI and US core PCE inflation due) indicates price pressure remain benign.
 
In the UK, Labour finance minister Alistair Darling's budget on March 24 will have more political implications than macroeconomic ones given that any measures announced will be subject to change soon after a general election expected in May, no matter which party ends up with the most seats.
 
Individual stocks or sectors will no doubt be affected by some measures, but the main influence on the broader market may end up being how the budget affects opinion poll ratings - and therefore the influence it has on the election outcome.
 
Sino-American tensions over FX are catching the eye of financial markets and look set to rise before the United States issues its half-year review of trade partners' currency practices (due April 15).
 
Before that decision on whether to brand China a currency manipulator, traders are keeping a close eye on what Dollar/RMB non-deliverable forwards are pricing in.
 
Free-floating currencies, equity markets and Treasuries could also start to feel more of a fallout if rhetoric tips over into threats or trade protectionism.
 
All told, next week is going to be volatile I feel and we may start to see the beginning of a broad global stockmarket correction - but let's face it, it is overdue!
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
In This Issue
US Markets
European Markets
The UK Market
Asia Pacific Markets
Global Commodities
Global Currencies
China This Week
Summary
Quick Links
Services
Our Services 
Personal Banking
Useful Tools