Financial Page International

21 November 2009 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
As most of you know, I release this Newsletter usually between 7am and 8am local time Saturdays here in China.
 
However, this weekend I am coach/referee in two children's football (soccer to those across the pond) tournaments and I have to leave the house at 6am Saturday morning - so will have no time to finish the Newsletter.
 
So for the first time ever I think, I am sending this Newsletter out before the US markets close for Friday and so can only give you their current status.
 
Also, it is difficult to comment without seeing all the closing market movements and so will leave any comment until next week - I can imagine a few of you being glad of a break from my rants (smile).
 
On to the numbers on the boards that have closed so far:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks fell, joining a global retreat, as earnings at Dell Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. trailed analysts' estimates and concern grew that European Central Bank policy makers will phase out economic stimulus measures. The dollar rose and two-year Treasury note yields fell to the lowest level of the year as investors sought safer assets.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 0.3% to 1,091.38 at 4:03 p.m. in New York as Dell tumbled the most this year to lead declines in technology shares. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index dropped for the fourth straight day, the longest streaks in four months. Crude oil declined as the Dollar Index gained as much as 0.8%.

US equities fell for a third straight day, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.2% over the past five days to cap its first weekly decline since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 14.28 points, or 0.1%, to 10,318.16 and was up 0.5% in the week. Declines were limited Friday as Pfizer Inc. and Merck & Co. led gains in drugmakers while J.M. Smucker Co. paced an advance in consumer staples companies.

The S&P 500 rose as much as 64% from a 12-year low in March, closing at a 13-month high on Nov. 17. The deepest US economic contraction in seven decades ended in the third quarter, when government incentives spurred spending on homes and cars. Corporate profits, which have shrunk for a record nine straight quarters, are projected to rise in the current period, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Dell, the third-largest maker of personal computers, slid 10% to $14.29 after reporting profit decreased by more than half. Technology shares in the S&P 500, the largest among 10 industries, lost 0.6% as a group and contributed the most to the retreat.

D.R. Horton tumbled 15% to $10.37 for the steepest loss in the S&P 500. The second-largest US homebuilder by revenue reported a fourth-quarter loss of 73 cents per share, three times wider than the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. All but one of 12 companies in an index of homebuilders retreated, with Pulte Homes Inc., Lennar Corp. and KB Home each slumping at least 3.4%.

J. M. Smucker added 5.4% to $56.35. Second-quarter earnings excluding some items were $1.22 a share, 18% higher than the average analyst estimate, as sales of Folgers coffee helped boost revenue by 52%.

Per-share earnings topped the average analyst estimate at 80% of S&P 500 companies that have released third-quarter results, the biggest share for a full quarter in Bloomberg data going back to 1993. Still, combined profits are down 14% from the year-earlier period.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryConcerns over growing loan losses plagued banks this week as institutions with exposure to Europe's developing economies were told they may have been too slow in recognising possible losses.

Both the International Monetary Fund and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development warned that banks operating in developing Europe were facing a build-up of non-performing loans.

UniCredit lost 6.4 per cent over the week to €2.36, Raiffeisen fell 6.2 per cent to €43.30 and Erste Group declined 5.2 per cent to €29.04.

The approval of KBC's restructuring plan did little to lift sentiment. The bank, which is active in eastern Europe, shed 2.9 per cent over the week to €32.27 in spite of announcing a plan that preserved the group's core business and ruled out the chance of a cash call.

ING, which had its own restructuring agreement approved this week, fell 7.7 per cent to €9.24, while UBS declined 6.0 per cent to SFr16.08 .

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 retreated 1.6 per cent over the week to 1,002.95 after reaching a fresh year high on Wednesday. The Xetra Dax was 0.4 per cent lower for the week at 5,663.15 while France's CAC 40 fell 2 per cent to 3,729.36.

GERMANY

German stocks fell for a second day, erasing their weekly advance, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB will gradually withdraw emergency cash.

Deutsche Bank AG declined 2.7% as Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said he can't make a forecast on the profit outlook for banks. Commerzbank AG, Germany's second- largest lender, sank 3.7%. Infineon Technologies AG slid 3.4% as Dell Inc. reported lower-than-estimated earnings.

The benchmark DAX Index fell 0.7% to 5,663.15 in Frankfurt, bringing this week's drop to 0.4%. The measure has climbed 54% from this year's low on March 6 as companies reported better-than-estimated earnings and the country's economy unexpectedly exited recession. The broader HDAX Index lost 0.7% Friday.

The rally since March has left the DAX valued at more than 60 times its companies' earnings, the most expensive level since December 2003, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.

Trichet said Friday the ECB will remove liquidity in order to ensure it doesn't fuel inflation.

"Not all our liquidity measures will be needed to the same extent as in the past," Trichet said at a conference in Frankfurt Friday. "Any non-standard measure whose continuation would pose a threat to the achievement of price stability must be undone promptly and unequivocally."

The crisis in Germany's financial system is far from over and banks will bear the brunt of the fallout next year, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Friday in a speech to the Euro Finance event in Frankfurt.

Deutsche Bank slid 2.7% to 49.06 euros. Ackermann said he cannot yet say what banks' profit outlook will be. Separately, Moody's Investors Service said it may cut Germany's biggest bank's long-term debt and deposit ratings.

Commerzbank dropped 3.7% to 6.56 euros.

Infineon, Europe's second-largest maker of semiconductors, fell 3.4% to 3.11 euros. Dell, the world's third-biggest maker of personal computers, reported third-quarter sales and profit that missed analysts' estimates.

Estavis AG soared 7% to 2.15 euros, rebounding from a two-day decline. The real-estate company said it returned to profit in the first quarter and confirmed its "positive" 2009/10 outlook.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index tumbled 30.86, or 0.8%, to 3,729.36 in Paris, for a 2% drop this week. The SBF 120 Index also fell 0.8% Friday.

Financial shares led declines as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank will gradually withdraw the emergency cash it has pumped into the economy in order to ensure it doesn't fuel inflation.

Dexia SA, France's biggest lender to local governments, slid 2.6% to 5.20 euros. Credit Agricole SA, the country's largest bank by branches, lost 2.4% to 14.07 euros. Societe Generale SA, France's second-biggest bank by market value, tumbled 2.7% to 47.43 euros.

Bull, the manufacturer of computer equipment, lost 12 cents, or 3.8%, to 3.05 euros, declining for a third day this week. Oddo Securities cut its recommendation on the stock to "add" from "buy."

Michelin & Cie. sank 1.26 euros, or 2.4%, to 51.81 euros, declining for a fourth day. The tiremaker said revenue is unlikely to increase next year as the global economy remains subdued. While top-line growth "will come," the company remains cautious, Chief Executive Officer Michel Rollier said Friday in an interview in Moscow.

NicOx, a biotechnology company, slid 30 cents, or 3.9%, to 7.34 euros, dropping for a third straight day. Aurel cut its recommendation on the shares to "sell" from "hold."

Orco Property Group jumped 80 cents, or 11%, to 8.23 euros, the biggest gain in six weeks. The company, which is under court protection from creditors, said its net loss narrowed in the third quarter from a year earlier.

BELIGUM

In Brussels the Bel 20 closed out the week at 2,483.46, almost flat at 0.09%.

Monday, the National Bank of Belgium announced that the trade balance showed a deficit of Eur 1 billion in August, down from Eur 0.9 billion surplus in July. A year ago, the trade deficit was Eur 2.1 billion.

Exports dropped 17.2% year-on-year to Eur 15.1 billion in August, while imports fell 20.5% to Eur 16.2 billion.

Belgian natural gas shipping company Exmar said on Wednesday its 100 million Euro ($149.7 million) capital increase would be priced 4.20 Euros per share. The additional capital is intended to strengthen the balance sheet of the company and support further growth, it has said.

Exmar said it would offer 2 new shares for 3 preferential rights, with the subscription period running from Nov. 19 to Dec. 3. Its shares closed at 8.65 Euros on Wednesday.

Belgian property investment group Befimmo reported higher full-year recurring earnings helped by low interest rates and confirmed it would pay a final dividend of 1.04 Euros per share.

The group said in July it would pay that final dividend in addition to the interim sum of 3.36 Euros it has already paid.

Full-year net current profit came in at 76.6 million Euros ($114.7 million), a 22.1% rise from a year earlier.

The rise was also due to lower costs for certain buildings, the company said.

Befimmo's portfolio is focused on offices in Brussels, the majority of them on long-term let to public institutions.

The group secured a 159.6 million Euro capital increase at the end of June, but De Blieck said the group was not under pressure to invest.

THE NETHERLANDS

The AEX in Amsterdam finished Friday at 310.03, down 1.05%.

Thursday, a report by the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics said on an unadjusted basis there were 387,000 unemployed persons in the August to October period, down from 394,000 in the three months ended September. The jobless rate held steady for the third consecutive quarter at 5%. Economists expected the rate to rise to 5.3%.

Seasonally adjusted, the number of unemployed persons totaled 403,000 in the three months ended October, up from 399,000 in the previous three-month period. The statistical office said this was the first time in nearly three years, the number of unemployed exceeded 400,000.

Dutch builder Royal BAM Group's nine-month net profit tumbled by two thirds as its property unit made a loss and margins tightened in its other divisions.

Shares in BAM, the largest Dutch construction group, were down 8.5% at 8.194 Euros at 0917 GMT, underperforming the DJ Stoxx construction and materials index .SXOE, which was down 1.2%.

BAM, which like Dutch peer Heijmans has been hit by the downturn in the real estate market, said it still expected 2009 revenue of 8.3 billion Euros ($12.4 billion).

It said it expected a full-year net profit of at least 100 million Euros, having said in August it expected between 100 million and 120 million Euros.

Pretax margins dropped across its construction, engineering, contracting and public-private partnerships (PPP) divisions on shrinking volumes and intensified competition, while its property unit swung to a loss.

Dutch grocer Royal Ahold plans to cut costs by more than 350 million Euros ($520 million) over three years as it looks to strengthen its hand in tough US and European markets and ward off a potential takeover.

Ahold, which runs Dutch market leader Albert Heijn but makes about 60% of its sales in the United States, said on Wednesday the new cost-cutting programme - which follows a 500 million Euro plan ending this year -- would make savings from its stores, supply chain, overheads and in purchasing.

Some analysts have said that if Ahold, which met forecasts with a 1.5% rise in third-quarter operating profit, does not revive its share price it could attract a bid.

The stock has lagged the DJ Stoxx European retail index by 23% this year, held back by cut-throat competition and falling prices in the US, where its rivals include Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Safeway.

ING published an investment note earlier this month saying Britain's Tesco could be a potential bidder for Ahold, though most analysts see an approach as unlikely.

They think Ahold's best chance of boosting its shares is to use its cash pile, which some put at over 2.5 billion Euros ($3.7 billion), for acquisitions, returning to shareholders, or a combination of the two.

Chief Executive John Rishton told Reuters he would look at all options and felt under no time pressure.

"Am I disappointed that our share price hasn't responded more favourably to the positive results and the work that we've done? Yes. Do I think it will in the longer run? Yes. Am I concerned about a takeover? No. Am I focusing on growth? Absolutely," he said in a telephone interview.

SWITZERLAND

Zurich's SMI ended the session and the week at 6,277.46, down 0.15%.

Swiss National Bank Chairman- designate Philipp Hildebrand said the country may need tighter financial rules than the rest of the world to tackle a domestic industry dominated by UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG.

"Given the particular situation in Switzerland, higher- than-average regulatory standards are warranted," he said in a speech in Geneva Thursday. The "exceptional" size of the two biggest Swiss banks means "prudent decision-making" is needed on the regulatory framework.

Hildebrand, who takes over from Jean-Pierre Roth in January, helped start a push earlier this year for officials to debate whether some banks are "too big to fail" and should be broken up to prevent a repeat of the crisis worsened by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s collapse. The Swiss banking industry is 8.2 times the country's gross domestic product, compared with 4.3 times in the UK and 0.9 times in the US, SNB statistics show.

Hildebrand, who is currently SNB Vice Chairman, said that while regulatory reform should be "internationally coordinated," a global agreed level of regulation might not be sufficient for Switzerland.

"Not all countries are confronted with the same urgency for reform as we are," he said.

Shares in the country's two biggest banks were little changed. UBS stock was at 16.86 Swiss francs at 9:36 a.m. in Zurich and Credit Suisse slipped 0.1% to 55.45 francs.

Hildebrand said in June that there can be "no more taboos" when rewriting financial rules and indicated that officials should be prepared to break up some banks if necessary. He said Thursday that banks' size is the "most important question" for Switzerland.

The debate on how to tackle banks deemed "too big to fail" gathered momentum last month when Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that such banks could be split to separate riskier activities from more stable businesses such as taking deposits.

Hildebrand demanded contingency plans for some institutions in case of financial distress, echoing similar calls from the leaders of the Group of 20 nations after a summit in September.

"At the forefront of our efforts to mitigate the 'too big to fail' problem must be an internationally agreed and orderly process to allow for the wind down of large, systemically important institutions in the event of a severe crisis," Hildebrand said.

The SNB governing board member reiterated that the amount and quality of banks' capital needs to be increased and that higher liquidity ratios are needed. He also urged policy makers Friday to strengthen their efforts.

"What has been missing is a bold and international political commitment to put in place a framework for the orderly resolution of large cross-border financial institutions," he said.

Tuesday, the Federal Statistical Office said Switzerland's real retail trade turnover declined 1.6% in September from the corresponding month of the previous year. Sales were down 1% in August, following July's 1% increase. Sale of food increased 1.1%, reversing 0.3% fall in August. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear sales declined 8.9%.

In nominal terms, retail turnover recorded an annual fall of 2% in September. For the first nine months of 2009, real turnover rose 0.2% annually and nominal turnover by 0.4%.

Consumer appetite for Swiss watches picked up slightly in October as the pace of decline in exports slowed, adding to signs the beleaguered watch industry may be on the road to recovery.

October exports slipped 23% year-on-year after falling 26% in the previous month, while the value of sales edged up to 1.3 billion Swiss francs ($1.29 billion) in October from 1.1 billion francs in September, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said.

The industry, home to companies like Swatch Group, Rolex and Richemont, has seen exports drop 25.5% so far this year as consumers have stopped treating themselves to pricey accessories.

But there are mounting signs that demand is picking up, with Richemont saying it expects better Christmas sales this year, while LVMH is also predicting a better festive period for its brands, including Tag Heuer and Hublot.

Exports to Hong Kong, the industry's biggest market, slipped 18%, while demand in the United States fell 38%, but more shoppers splashed out on timepieces in Singapore, where exports rose 5.6%.

AUSTRIA

In Vienna, the ATX closed out the trading day at 2,578.61, down 1.02%.

Austrian oilfield equipment maker Schoeller-Bleckmann's (SBOE.VI) net profit in the next two quarters could be lower than that reported in the third quarter, its chief executive told Reuters on Thursday.

"I can't rule out that one quarter or the other could be worse than the third, meaning the fourth quarter and the beginning of 2010," Groehmann said in a telephone interview.

Schoeller-Bleckmann earlier on Thursday reported third-quarter net profit of 1.4 million Euros, a decline of 90% year-on-year as revenue almost halved due to reduced investments by oil producers, its main customers.

Austrian steelmaker Voestalpine swung back to an operating profit in its second fiscal quarter and held onto its outlook, adding that there were signs the global downturn had bottomed out. Although a steep year-on-year decline in sales volumes and price levels hit earnings, the group beat all estimates in a Reuters analyst poll.

"Since the end of the summer, there have been growing signs that the global economy has bottomed out," Voestalpine said, adding it would, however, be premature to interpret this as sustained recovery.

Voestalpine's earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were 70.4 million Euros ($105 million) in the fiscal second quarter to September, a sixth of what they were a year ago but more than double what analysts had predicted [ID:nLD649872].

Net income was 8.4 million Euros, far above the 30 million Euro loss analysts had been expecting.

The company said it would have "clearly positive" operating earnings in the full year and at least break even on its bottom line.

Voestalpine said all sectors were showing signs of stabilisation compared with the previous quarter.

Steel industry body Eurofer said last month that Europe's steel market will remain subdued even after a likely return to growth in the region's economy during the third quarter.

Monday, the Statistics Austria announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year in October, faster than the 0.1% growth in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.1% in October, unchanged from the prior month.

Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP rose 0.1% year-on-year in October, after a flat reading in the previous month. Month-on-month, the HICP rose 0.1% in October.

Producer prices in Austria dropped 2.4% year-on-year in September, slower than the 2.7% fall in the previous month, Statistics Austria reported on Thursday. Producer prices of intermediate goods decreased 5.4%, while prices in the energy sector fell 9.1%.

On a monthly basis, producer prices increased 0.8% in September, faster than the downwardly revised 0.4% growth in the preceding month

SWEDEN

In Stockholm the OMX finished the day and the week on 951.57, up 0.01%.

Swedish central bank Deputy Governor Lars Nyberg said on Wednesday he did not believe developments in Sweden's housing market posed a problem at least in the short term.

Nyberg said the increase in housing prices and in household debt was not sustainable in the long term but that there was little the Riksbank could do with monetary policy to control the imbalances.

"We need to have a low interest rate for a longer period of time in order to stimulate the growth needed to help Sweden out of the crisis," he said in a speech posted on the central bank's website.

"At present, it is not the time to counteract imbalances by leaning against the wind."

The Riksbank left rates unchanged last month and forecast they would stay at a record low of 0.25% through the autumn of 2010.

Sweden's jobless rate fell to 8.1% in October from 8.3% the previous month, the statistics office (SCB) said on Thursday.

The figure compared with a median forecast for unemployment of 8.4% in a Reuters poll.

The key points of this fall were the total employment, which does not include government job schemes, was 4.458 million people from 4.478 million the previous month. Also, the number of hours worked was down 4.2% year-on-year, calender adjusted.

Wednesday, a survey from the TNS SIFO Prospera showed that Money Market Players´ anticipation of a swift recovery of the Swedish economy, witnessed in the last survey, was further confirmed.

The survey showed that money market players expect the GDP to grow almost twice as much in the year to come. For the first year, participants saw 1.7% growth in the November survey compared to 0.9% seen in the fourth quarter survey. Growth is seen rising to 2.6% in coming two years and 2.6% in three years.

The latest survey showed that participants expect inflation of 1.3% in the coming one year, 2.2% in two years and 2.3% in three years.

Money market players' estimated that the central bank's key interest rate would be 1.1% in 12 months and 2.7% in 24 months. On October 14, the fourth quarter expectations survey had shown the repo rate at 1% in 12 months and 2.4% in 24 months.

The Executive Board of the Riksbank held the repo rate unchanged at a record low of 0.25% in October. The central bank added that the forecast for the repo rate also remains unchanged, and the repo rate is expected to remain at this low level until autumn 2010.

Further, survey participants expects the Swedish krona to strengthen further against Eur and USD. Eighty-six% of the money market players believe that the inflation in the second year from now will stay within the Riksbank's 1%-3 % tolerance band.

TNS SIFO Prospera has been commissioned by Riksbank to undertake a series of surveys, twelve times a year, aiming at mapping expectations of inflation, GDP and future repo rates in Sweden among money market players.

Autoliv, the world's biggest maker of air bags and seat belts, said on Tuesday vehicle production volumes thus far into fourth quarter had held up well.

"We have not seen any deterioration in (vehicle) production volumes. We said during our earnings call in October that we were uncertain about December. So far it looks good," the company's Chief Executive Jan Carlson told Reuters in a telephone interview.

In October, Autoliv predicted a 10% increase in organic sales during the fourth quarter, but said visibility was limited towards the end of the year.

DENMARK

Copenhagen's OMX had a volatile week, ending Friday at 332.58, a deckine of 0.38%.

FLSmidth, a major equipment supplier to the cement and mining industries, Tuesday reported a forecast-beating rise in third-quarter net profit and raised its full-year sales and profit guidance.

The company now sees 2009 revenue between 22 billion and 23 billion Danish kroner ($4.41 billion-$4.61 billion), up from its previous estimate of DKK20 billion to DKK23 billion.

The Danish engineering company said net profit in the three-month period ended September 30 rose 8% to DKK352 million from DKK326 million a year earlier. The earnings beat the average forecast of DKK301 million from a Dow Jones Newswires poll.

FLSmith said revenue in the third quarter fell 10% to DKK5.83 billion from DKK6.49 billion, beating a forecast of DKK5.73 billion. Operating profit dropped 19% to DKK475 million from DKK583 million, slightly above analysts' expectations of DKK470 million.

Investors responded by selling FLSmidth shares. At 1135 GMT, the stock was down 4.6% at DKK294. The shares have gained 70% since the start of 2009, outperforming the 35% gain for the OMX index of the 40 biggest companies.

Danish timber trader Dalhoff Larsen & Horneman said Thursday it would slash 775 jobs and downgraded its forecast for 2009 to a pretax loss of between DKK580m and DKK610m, following poor results in the year so far.

The job cuts will mainly affect the company's operations outside Denmark, primarily the loss-making operations in Congo.

The measures will ensure improvements of the results of some DKK85m annually from 2010, but will entail restructuring costs and consequent write-downs of an additional DKK280m in 2009, which was also the reason for the guidance cut.

For the first three quarters of 2009, DLH turned to a loss before interest and tax of DKK86m, compared with a profit of DKK5m a year earlier.

The group reported a revenue of DKK2.796bn, down by 30% year-on-year. Accumulated costs for the year including depreciation and amortisation came in at DKK512m. A cut in costs of DKK80m, or 14%, stem from staff cuts and other efficiency improvement initiatives.

The after-tax loss for the year to date totals DKK159m compared with a DKK83m loss from continuing operations last year. Cash flow from operations was at DKK280m, representing an improvement of DKK407m on the comparative period of 2008.

Danish banks Thursday said they are seeing strong demand in the first two days of the annual auctions of Danish mortgage covered bonds, with yields tightening as both foreign and domestic investors return for the record $115 billion total sale.

Every year Danish mortgage lenders sell billions worth of highly rated covered bonds to raise money for the refinancing of residential mortgage loans.

This year, the amount needed is at a historical high due to the vast sums of lending taken up by Danish homeowners attracted by very low one-year interest rates. Last year, Danish banks raised some $40 billion less in the auction, or around $75 billion.

The three largest issuers are Realkredit, which hopes to raise a total of $32 billion by Dec. 8, Nykredit, which will begin issuing a total of $33 billion next week, and Nordea, which Dec. 1 will start trying to raise a total of $15 billion before the auction closes Dec. 14.

Covered bonds are an important source of mortgage finance in many continental European countries. Although they are high-quality bonds, secondary market liquidity seized up after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and prices fell, making it harder to sell new bonds. Since then, the European Central Bank has reinvigorated the market in the Euro zone with its Eur60 billion covered bond purchase program. It and other Euro-zone central banks have already bought nearly Eur24 billion of covered bonds since the purchases started in July.

Denmark's mortgage covered bond market is the biggest in Europe in front of Germany and Spain.

FINLAND

Helsinki's OMX rounded off a turbulent week at 6,253.40, a dip of 0.54%.

The Ministry of Justice is looking into the possibility of allowing expatriate Finns to cast votes for Finnish elections via mail - something Finns living abroad have requested for a long time.

Currently, Finns abroad have only two possibilities if they want to vote in Finnish elections; they must either vote in Finland or at a Finnish consulate.

"In some large nations like the United States, Canada and Australia, both options are usually very far away," says Arto Jääskeläinen, a top election official at the Ministry.

It's hoped that the mail-in ballot system will be functional by the 2011 Parliamentary elections.

There are currently more than 220,000 Finns living abroad, and the number is growing continuously. Officials believe that postal ballots will significantly increase voter turnout among expats.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts slight growth for the Finnish economy next year. However on Thursday the organisation downgraded its prediction for this year, estimating that gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by 6.9%.

Last summer the OECD predicted that the Finnish economy would contract by just 4.7%.

The organisation has lowered its 2010 Finnish growth forecast to 0.4%, whereas in June it projected an upswing of 0.8% next year.

The OECD also warned Finland about its worryingly high levels of unemployment and state debt.

The Eurozone has snapped out of recession sooner than expected but recovery will be slow, with annualised growth of 0.6% in the fourth quarter, the OECD said.

Finland is among the 16 EU member states that use the common currency, but the only one in the Nordic-Baltic region.

The OECD, a Paris-based grouping of 30 of the world's wealthiest nations, also urged governments to start withdrawing stimulus measures from late 2010.

Statistics Finland reported on Tuesday that the producer price index or PPI for manufactured products dropped 8.4% year-on-year in October, slower than the 9.4% fall in the previous month. This marks the eleventh straight month in which producer prices have fallen annually.

The decline in prices was driven by reductions in the prices of metals, chemicals, and oil products, the statistical agency said.

On a monthly basis, producer prices increased 0.1% in October, rebounding from the 0.2% decrease in the previous month.

In October, export prices and import prices dropped by 9.8% and 8.9%, respectively. Month-on-month, export prices were down 0.3%, while import prices rose 0.7%. The statistical agency also said that the wholesale price index declined 8.5% on year in October, slower than the 10.2% decrease in the preceding month. Wholesale prices fell 0.1% compared to the previous month.

The Association of Finnish Work on Thursday quoted a Taylor Nelson Sofres poll as saying that about a quarter of the respondents had reported buying more Finnish products than before.

The lobby added that the recession was not the only reason behind the increase as there had been a broader shift of attitudes in favour of buying Finnish.

But more than half of those polled said they did not have enough information about the impact of buying behaviour on jobs.

NORWAY

Oslo's OBX brought the week to a close on 318.16 - up 0.41%.

Statistics Norway reported on Monday that the trade surplus stood at NOK 27.42 billion in October, up from the NOK 21.52 billion surplus in the previous month. A year ago, a surplus of NOK 39.54 billion was recorded.

Exports dropped 22.8% year-on-year to NOK 64.95 billion in October, while imports slid 15.9% to NOK 37.53 billion. Exports excluding crude oil, natural gas & condensates declined 12.1%.

In the first ten months of the year, exports and imports dropped by 23.2% and 14%, respectively, compared to the same period of the previous year. During the period, the trade surplus amounted to NOK 261.95 billion.

Telenor, the Norwegian mobile operator maker said its new tie-up with Huawei Technologies could pave the way for a relationship worth billions of Dollars down the road, in a watershed for the Chinese company's global ambitions.

Norway's largest financial group, DnB NOR ASA, said Thursday that shareholders approved a 14 billion kroner ($2.5 billion) rights issue to offset losses suffered during the financial crisis.

The group will sell shares at 47.3 kroner ($8.39), a 27% discount to the estimated share price of 64.5 kroner after the issue. Wednesday's closing share price was 68.4 kroner.

Shareholders approved the move at an extraordinary general meeting in Oslo.

DnB NOR, which did not apply for support from Norway's bank relief fund, announced the cash call in September. It said then that "based on the current improved market conditions" the rights issue was "in the best interest of shareholders and customers."

The bank saw net profit drop 21% in the third quarter. The result improved on the second quarter _ when writedowns on DnB NOR's Latvian and Lithuanian operations precipitated a 60% profit tumble. But the bank continued to express "uncertainty" about its exposure in the Baltic countries, which have been severely hit by the economic downturn.

Norwegian aquaculture company Codfarmers ASA saw its pretax loss widen to NOK55m in the third quarter of 2009, from NOK46.2m a year earlier.

In its interim report, released Wednesday evening, Codfarmers also said its operating loss before fair value adjustment of the biomass, expanded to NOK12.5m in July - September 2009 from NOK9.2m in the corresponding period of 2008.

The operating revenue shrank to NOK17.2m from NOK26.4m.

The company wrote down the value of the biomass by NOK25m.

Codfarmers had a total harvest of 514 tonnes of own production and 372 tonnes were harvested and sold for external producers in the reported period.

A total 59% of the volumes were sold on contracts.

Cisco Systems Monday raised its cash bid for Norwegian video-conferencing-equipment maker Tandberg by 11% to 19 billion Norwegian kroner ($3.41 billion) and said the US network equipment supplier said its offer was final.

"The new offer represents the offeror's final price for this transaction," Cisco said, adding that it will withdraw the offer if it doesn't achieve the desired 90% level of acceptances.

Cisco raised its bid to NOK170 a share from NOK153.50 a share, and extended the offer period to Dec. 1.

Tandberg's board of directors unanimously recommended the revised bid, Chairman Jan Opsahl said in a statement. "We believe this is an outstanding offer for our shareholders," Opsahl said.

Cisco said it has received acceptances representing over 40% of Tandberg's shares, including from the largest shareholders, Folketrygdfondet and Oppenheimer Funds.

SPAIN

In Madrid the IBEX ended the session at 11,719.30, down 1.07%.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation has advised Spain that it should to hold off on measures to cut its budget deficit until the economy is in better shape in 2011.

OECD economists are now slightly more optimistic than in the past about Spain's economy. They said it will likely contract by 3.5% this year and 0.25% in 2010.

Spanish GDP was down 0.3% in the third quarter.

Spain sold 3.3 billion Euros ($4.94 billion) worth of 15-year government bonds on Thursday, drawing solid demand despite rising premiums investors demand to hold non-core Euro zone sovereign debt.

The amount offered was at the upper end of a 2.5-3.5 billion Euros the Spanish Treasury had expected to sell of its 2024, 4.8% coupon debt.

The 10-year Spanish/German government bond yield spread was a touch tighter at 55.2 basis points from 55.6 bps before the auction results.

Wednesday, the National Statistical Institute of Spain said in a final report that the gross domestic product or GDP dropped 0.3% sequentially in the third quarter, unrevised from the preliminary report. In the second quarter, the GDP fell 1.1%.

Year-on-year, the GDP decreased 4% in the third quarter, compared to the 4.2% fall in the previous quarter. A year ago, the GDP was up 0.5%. Thus, the statistical office confirmed its preliminary report of GDP decline in the third quarter.

The European Central Bank would maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy stance for some time, the Spanish central bank governor Miguel Fernández Ordonez told the Financial Times on Monday.

"It is clear that any increase in rates is off the screen," he said in an interview to the newspaper. "The markets do not expect any change before the second half of next year."

Ordonez, who is a member of the ECB's Governing Council, noted that the governing council should plan to remove the emergency measures adopted, once the financial markets normalize. "When the markets are working well, we should take them away because otherwise the markets will never work perfectly, ever. Support should be exceptional," he told FT.

He said Spain is ready for recovery as the rebound in Europe is the best news for the country. Around 70% of Spanish exports go to the Eurozone. While, Germany, France and Italy escaped from recession, Spain remained stuck in recession in the third quarter with its GDP falling 0.3% sequentially.

Regarding consumer prices, the policy maker said, "Deflation in the Euro area would be a disaster." However, if there was no deflation in the Euro area and Spain had a negative inflation differential compared with the rest of the Eurozone, he said, that would be the best thing. "Reducing prices and regaining competitiveness is what we have to do."

Ordonez also expressed plans for a series of mergers among Spain's savings banks known as cajas de ahorros, within months. At least 15 institutions should merge with others, he said. Cajas de ahorros are unlisted credit institutions similar to banks. At the peak of the crisis, these institutions lost their market share, the FT report said.

PORTUGAL

The PSI General in Lisbon completed a busy week at 2,876.15, a decline of 0.09% on the day.

Tuesday, the Statistics Portugal announced that the jobless rate stood at 9.8% in the third quarter, up from a 9.1% recorded in the third quarter. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 7.7%.

During the period, the jobless rate for men increased to 9.1% from 8.7% in the second quarter, while the jobless rate for women rose to 10.6% from 9.5%.

The number of unemployed totaled 547,7 thousand persons in the third quarter, larger than the 507,7 thousand persons in the preceding quarter. A year ago, the number of unemployed was 433,7 thousand persons.

The labour force participation rate stood at 52.3% in the third quarter, down from 52.5% in the second quarter.

The European Commission Thursday said it would begin an in-depth investigation into investment aid the Portuguese government gave to the refining and distribution subsidiary of energy company Galp Energia SGPS.

The aid package of Eur160 million was intended to help the subsidiary, Petrogal, modernize two refineries.

"When the beneficiary of aid for a large regional investment project has large market share, we have to verify that the beneficiary genuinely needs the aid to carry out the investment and that the benefits of the aid outweigh the resulting distortion of competition," European Union competition commissioner Neelie Kroes said in a statement.

Portuguese renewable firm EPD Renewables plans to invest $4 billion in the American wind market over the next three years.

EPDR is the wind energy arm of Energias de Portugal, and has built most of its new wind turbines in the US The company has installed 2.5 GW of wind capacity in the US to date.

In 2008, the US surpassed Germany in terms of installed wind power capacity, and EPDR cited the US government's commitment to supporting renewable energy as one factor behind its decision to continue investing in the US market.

The EPDR investment Dollars will go primarily toward new projects and manufacturing equipment.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index dropped for a fourth day, falling 311.54, or 1.4%, to 22,511.68 in Milan. The gauge fell 3.3% this week.

Ansaldo gained 16 cents, or 1.2%, to 13.65 euros, paring a 3.2% decline Thursday. Finmeccanica SpA's railway technology unit had its price estimate lifted to 14.3 euros from 13.8 euros at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking. The brokerage kept a "hold" rating.

Banca Popolare di Milano lost 12.5 cents, or 2.3%, to 5.23 euros. Bank stocks were the third-worst performers across Europe. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the bank will gradually withdraw the emergency cash it has pumped into the economy in order to ensure it doesn't fuel inflation.

Edison rose 1 cent, or 1%, to 1.05 euros. A2A SpA (A2A IM), Italy's largest municipal utility, hired Mediobanca SpA (MB IM) and Morgan Stanley to advise on talks with Electricite de France SA over control of Edison, according to two people familiar with the matter.

A2A, which said in a statement that it hasn't given "formal mandates" to investment banks or other advisers, fell 1.6% to 1.29 euros. Mediobanca lost 1.7% to 8.31 euros.

Enel retreated for a second day, losing 7.75 cents, or 1.8%, to 4.19 euros. Italy's biggest utility was rated a "short-term sell" at UBS AG, which also cut its 12-month recommendation on Italy's biggest utility to "neutral" from "buy," saying that "demand destruction, capacity additions and a structural change in the gas market all bring downside to prices and margins."

Eni, Italy's largest oil company, fell 34 cents, or 2%, to 16.85 euros, the lowest in almost seven weeks. Crude oil declined for a second day in New York as the dollar strengthened against the euro, lowering the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge.

Saipem, Europe's largest oil-field services contractor by market value, fell 24 cents, or 1.1%, to 21.86 euros.

Eurofly surged 15% to 17.75 cents. The Italian charter airline said it will merge its operations with Meridiana SpA, according to a stock-exchange statement late Thursday.

Fiat declined 51 cents, or 4.9%, to 10.01 euros, extending losses of 2.6% Thursday. The Italian carmaker was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at UBS AG, which lowered its equity value figure for Chrysler Group LLC. The brokerage said that "having checked with Chrysler," it understands "that the $8 billion net debt guidance for year-end 2009 does not include an estimated $5.8 billion of obligations linked to the legacy pension and healthcare and insurance liabilities to salaried workers (outside of United Auto Workers)."

Exor, Fiat's main shareholder, lost 41 cents, or 3%, to 13.06 euros.

Lottomatica sank 72 cents, or 5%, to 13.57 euros, the steepest decline since June 29. Italy's administrative court of the Lazio region annulled the auction of the concession of a scratch and win lottery won by Lottomatica, a company official said by phone Friday.

Lottomatica is awaiting the decision on a possible appeal by Italy's lottery agency AAMS, which awarded the concession, the company said.

Seat Pagine Gialle retreated for a sixth session, losing 1.24 cents, or 7.1%, to 16.25 cents. The publisher of yellow pages said in a statement that it confirmed its 2009 financial targets announced in August with its nine- month results. The company said it has 20% "headroom" for the "debt to Ebitda covenant" ratio, according to the statement.

Sorin fell 3.6 cents, or 2.8%, to 1.23 euros after GE Capital SpA sold an 8% stake in the maker of cardiovascular devices.

STMicroelectronics dropped 24 cents, or 4.2%, to 5.53 euros. Dell Inc., the third-largest maker of personal computers, reported earnings that missed analysts' estimates. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index retreated for a third day.

GREECE

The Athex in Athens ended the week at 2,405.61, down a massive 3.67% for the day.

Tuesday, the Bank of Greece announced that the current account deficit stood at Eur 1.561 billion in September, narrowing from Eur 2.71 billion deficit recorded a year ago.

Capital transfers showed a deficit of Eur 13.1 million in September, down from Eur 69.8 million surplus in the previous year. At the same time, the financial account surplus totaled Eur 1.12 billion, smaller than the Eur 2.29 billion surplus last year.

The current account and capital transfers deficit narrowed to Eur 1.57 billion in September from Eur 2.64 billion deficit last year.

In the January to September period, the current account shortfall amounted to Eur 18.33 billion, narrowing from Eur 24.54 billion last year.

The cost of protecting Greek government debt against default jumped on Thursday, according to monitor CMA DataVision.

The premium investors demand to hold the 10-year Greek government bond GR1OYT=RR rather than benchmark German Bunds also rose, hitting the highest since July over 168 bps as investors fretted about the country's fiscal health.

The five-year credit default swap (CDS) on Greek government debt climbed to 184 basis points from 172.2 basis points at the New York close on Wednesday, CMA said.

This was still well off the peak of 285.1 bps hit in February during the height of the global economic turmoil, according to CMA.

This means it now costs 184,000 Euros per year to insure an exposure of 10 million Euros of Greek government bonds, up from 172,200 Euros on Wednesday.

Concerns about Greece grew after data last week showed the country's economy in its forth straight contraction in the third quarter.

A shakeout in Greek government bonds over the past week underscores recurring concerns over the country's public finances and its banks.

The European Central Bank has dropped increasingly heavy hints that it intends to start unwinding extraordinary measures supporting the banking system soon -- possibly as early as December -- and return gradually to more normal policies in 2010.

But the health of Europe's banking system in general -- and Greece's banking system in particular -- seems so fragile that even mere hints of tightening are enough to cause minor panic.

The European Commission already has singled out Greece as the worst offender with wide budget deficits, and earlier this month ordered the Greek government to present regular progress on cutting red ink.

Questions about the accuracy of Greece's budget accounts are adding to the concern. The government acknowledged last month that its deficit will hit 12.7% of gross domestic product this year -- the biggest in the Euro zone and twice previous forecasts from just two months ago.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in an interview published Tuesday by Le Monde newspaper -- and posted on the ECB Web site -- that some countries risked "losing credibility" if they didn't shore up their finances soon.

The National Bank of Greece said Monday that it had felt compelled to advise Greek banks to "show restraint" at the central bank's next tender of 12-month funds, scheduled for Dec. 16.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK stocks declined for a fourth day after Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Thomas Cook Group Plc and Tui Travel Plc and Nationwide Building Society said house prices will fall next year.

Tui closed down 4 per cent to 245p after Morgan Stanley downgraded it to "equal-weight" while a move to "underweight" sent Thomas Cook 4.3 per cent lower to 209¼p.

The wider market struggled to find direction in a quiet session, with the FTSE 100 closing down 16.29 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 5,251.41.

Having reached its annual high on Monday, the index eventually finished down for the first week in three, losing 0.8 per cent.

Energy stocks were the main drag on the Footsie as a stronger dollar weighed on oil prices.

BP lost 0.4 per cent to 579p and the B shares of Royal Dutch Shell were 1.1 per cent lower at £17.71.

But Cairn Energy held steady at £29.40, helped by a Sanford C. Bernstein sector note that made the explorer its top pick in Europe based on the potential of its Greenland acreage.

Precious metals groups found favour. Johnson Matthey was up 1.7 per cent to £15.76 and Randgold was 1.3 per cent higher at £49.50.

Aquarius Platinum rose 5.8 per cent to 346p, having said it was restarting development of its Everest mine six months earlier than analysts had expected.

Ferrexpo put on 2.7 per cent to 190½p after it hosted an upbeat analysts' dinner.

Cadbury gained 1.2 per cent to 800½p on a report that Ferrero was meeting banks interested in financing a potential counterbid for the confectioner.

Cable and Wireless led the blue chip risers, up 1.8 per cent to 138p, after JPMorgan upgraded to "overweight" based on valuation and a 9½p full-year dividend. Also helpful was news that two C&W directors had bought stock.

Intertek faded 2.9 per cent to £12.23 on news that it was in talks to buy the systems certification unit of Det Norske Veritas, to be paid for in equity.

Société Générale analyst Simon Mezzanotte wondered if the deal was a defensive move to fend off potential predators, given that Intertek could afford to pay in debt rather than making DNV an important shareholder.

Company watchers were keen to dismiss this idea, however, saying the reason was to put Intertek into the industry's top tier.

Among the mid-caps, National Express jumped 7.6 per cent to 337p after the family of rebel director Jorge Cosmen raised its stake to nearly 19 per cent with the purchase of 501,823 shares.

The move sparked speculation that Mr Cosmen may rally support against National Express's £360m equity issue, which he publicly opposes.

Another suggestion was that he was looking to avoid a level of dilution that would make him lose influence.

An upgrade to "buy" from UBS lifted subprime mortgage lender Paragon Group 3.6 per cent to 147p.

Computacenter led the mid-cap fallers, sliding 5.7 per cent to 250½p in tandem with the IT hardware suppliers following worse-than-expected results from Dell.

Minerva was in demand as rumours circulated of a counterbid for the property developer, writes Neil Hume.

Nathan Kirsh, the African businessman who is Minerva's biggest shareholder, this week launched a hostile 50p-a-share cash offer for the company.

The shares rose 9.5 per cent on Friday to 57½p as investors bet that another offer would follow.

Private equity group Blackstone and Songbird Estates, owner of Canary Wharf Group, are seen as potential counterbidders.

Traders also noted that hedge fund Sisu Capital had bought 686,000 shares on Friday at 54p each, lifting its holding to just over 3 per cent.

Minerva is expected to announce a revaluation of its property in Wigmore Street, central London, next week.

Staffline, the recruitment services group, advanced 19.6 per cent to 61p on news that full-year earnings were likely to be ahead of expectations because of new contracts and cost-cutting.

In spite of the rise, Altium Securities said Staffline was still cheap.

Mecom, the UK-based owner of European newspapers, improved 0.5 per cent to 145p after David Montgomery, chief executive, declared the purchase of 20,000 shares at 145p each.

Dragon Oil dipped 1.8 per cent to 410p after Baillie Gifford announced the purchase of a further 200,000 shares, increasing its holding to nearly 4.3 per cent.

The Scottish fund management group is among those shareholders opposing a 455p-a-share cash offer from Dragon's biggest shareholder, the Emirates National Oil Company.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.5 percent on Friday and logged its first four-week losing streak in over a year, with Sony sliding after its new growth strategy failed to reassure investors. Helping to temper the Nikkei's decline were gains in banking stocks, battered recently by concerns about fundraising after top lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group announced a massive share sale this week.

The Nikkei slid 2.8 percent on the week for its fourth straight weekly drop, the first such losing streak since a four- week period during September-October 2008, when equities tumbled globally on a wave of deleveraging and the unwinding of risky carry trades.

The Nikkei extended its declines this week, hurt by a recent flurry of equity financing, uncertainty about the economic policies of the new Democratic Party-led government and the Yen's rise against the Dollar.

Adding to the selling pressure was loss-cut selling by Japanese retail investors in margin trading, and there was also some talk of selling by overseas investors during the week.

The Nikkei fell 51.79 points to a four-month closing low of 9,497.68.

Trade was active, with 2.1 billion shares changing hands on the Tokyo exchange's first section compared to last week's daily average of 1.7 billion. Advancing shares beat declining ones 829 to 708.

The Nikkei may be poised for a rebound in the near-term with the relative strength index showing it has been over-sold.

Support for the Nikkei lies at the 200-day moving average of 9,344.25, which is also very close to a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its rise to an end-August peak of 10,767 from an early March trough of 7,021.28. Below that support lies at the Nikkei's July 13 low near 9,050.

The broader Topix index edged up 0.1 percent to 838.71.

Sony, which is heading for its second straight annual loss, said on Thursday that it would launch 3D TVs and new networked products and services as part of a strategy help it return to growth.

But Sony also pushed back an elusive target of an operating profit margin of 5 percent to the financial year to March 2013. That target had been set by CEO Howard Stringer in 2005 for the year to March 2008.

Sony shed 2.4 percent to 2,410 Yen after hitting a low of 2,375 Yen, its lowest level in nearly four months.

Advantest Corp and other chip-related shares slid, following falls by U.S. peers after a brokerage cut its growth outlook for the semiconductor industry.

U.S. tech stocks were hammered on Thursday after Bank of America-Merrill Lynch cut its 2010 growth outlook for the semiconductor industry on concerns about a rising inventory glut, and downgraded 10 stocks including Intel Corp.

Advantest, which makes chip testing equipment, fell 2.9 percent to 2,030 Yen, while Tokyo Electron lost 3 percent to 4,860 Yen. Nikon Corp, which makes steppers, shed 2.8 percent to 1,592 Yen.

Among the market's gainers was Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings, which jumped 9.2 percent to 321 Yen after UBS and Nomura Securities upgraded the company's shares.

Both brokerages cited Mitsubishi Chemical's announcement on Thursday that it would launch a roughly 228 billion Yen ($2.6 billion) bid to buy acrylic fibre and resins maker Mitsubishi Rayon.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group rose 1.1 percent to 471 Yen, while Japan's No. 3 bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group gained 3.5 percent to 2,815 Yen and Mizuho Financial Group climbed 1.9 percent to 158 Yen.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates near zero and raised its economic assessment even as government pressure for it to fight deflation intensified. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues held the overnight lending rate at 0.1 percent, the central bank said in a statement today in Tokyo. The release came hours after Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan warned about the danger that falling prices pose to Japan's recovery from its worst postwar slump.

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds touched 1.285 percent today, the lowest level since Oct. 9, according to prices at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest interdealer debt broker. It has fallen five basis points this week.

SOUTH KOREA

Seoul shares reversed their earlier losses to end flat on Friday helped by gains in LG Electronics, but losses in memory chip issues such as Samsung Electronics weighed.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) ended flat to finish at 1,620.60.

Foreign investors were buyers of Seoul stocks for a fourth consecutive session, picking up a net 36.1 billion won ($30.97 million) worth of shares, after buying their largest daily amount of shares in two months in the previous session.

Memory chip makers such as Samsung Electronics declined after losses overnight in the U.S. semiconductor index.

Samsung Electronics lost 0.53 percent and Hynix Semiconductor shed 0.52 percent.

But shares in LG Electronics advanced after its recent losses.

Shares in the electronics giant ended up 2.86 percent and LG Display gained 0.63 percent.

Defensive issues outperformed, with KT&G, South Korea's tobacco monopoly, rising 0.3 percent and snack maker Lotte Confectionary gaining 1.04 percent.

But steel issues retreated, with POSCO, the world's No.4 steelmaker, ending down 1.94 percent, and Hyundai Steel  shedding 0.24 percent.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong shares closed lower for the fourth consecutive session Friday as the correction in the market continued following Monday's more than 15-month high, with property developers and mainland lenders leading the decline.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell 187.32 points, or 0.83%, to 22,455.84 after trading between 22,376.36 and 22,584.55 during the session. The city's benchmark index is down 0.8% for the week.

Turnover totaled HK$60.50 billion, down from HK$69.28 billion Thursday.

Analysts said they expect the downtrend to continue in the near term, but Hong Kong's ample liquidity and the strong outlook for heavyweight HSBC will provide support around 22,000.

Property developers came under profit-taking pressure following their outperformance Thursday.

Sun Hung Kai Properties fell 1.5% to HK$115.40 after a 0.3% gain Thursday, and New World Development declined 1.2% to HK$16.08 following a 0.7% rise in the previous session.

Sino Land bucked the downtrend, rising 0.7% to HK$14.28. Analysts expect the property developer to be one of the bidders in next month's land auction, when the government plans to sell two parcels of land in the New Territories.

HSBC fell for the third straight session, ending 0.5% lower at HK$95.05. The U.K.-based lender is still up 9.0% so far this month.

Mainland lenders fell on a report by the Shanghai Securities News that cited a former China central banker as saying the People's Bank of China could adjust banks' reserve requirement ratio next year.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China fell 1.5% to HK$6.75, Bank of China declined 0.2% to HK$4.72, and China Construction Bank was down 0.7% at HK$7.11.

CHINA

China's benchmark stock index dropped the most in three weeks after the government raised electricity prices for the first time in 16 months, fueling concern that recent gains outpaced prospects for earnings growth.

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. slumped 1.7 percent and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. slipped 1.3 percent, paring a monthly advance. PetroChina Co. fell for the first time in six days after crude oil declined.

The Shanghai Composite Index declined 12.27, or 0.4 percent, to 3,308.35 at the close, sliding from its highest level since Aug. 6 and paring its weekly gain to 3.8 percent. The Shenzhen Composite Index added 0.5 percent to 1,208.83, extending a record 15-day winning streak. The CSI 300 Index dropped 0.3 percent to 3,631.01.

The Shanghai index is up 19 percent since the end of September, the second-best performer among 89 global benchmark gauges, as the economy strengthened and the government pledged to maintain its "moderately loose" monetary policy. The gauge has climbed 82 percent this year.

Aluminum Corp., or Chalco as the company is known, slid 1.7 percent to 15.33 yuan, trimming its gain this quarter to 20 percent. Jiangxi Copper Co., the country's biggest producer, lost 1.5 percent to 42.23 yuan.

China, the world's second-biggest energy user, will raise electricity prices for nonresidential users by an average of 0.028 yuan (0.4 cent) per kilowatt-hour starting today, the National Development and Reform Commission said.

The government controls power costs to curb their impact on inflation and last increased tariffs for non-residential and non-agricultural users in July 2008.

Recent gains on the Shanghai Composite pushed the measure's 14-day relative-strength index, which measures how rapidly a commodity or security has advanced or retreated, to 74.70 yesterday. That's more than the 70 level viewed by some investors as a signal for a drop and the highest since July 28.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the biggest lender, fell 1.3 percent to 5.48 yuan, paring its advance this month to 8.3 percent. Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. slumped 1.5 percent to 59.60 yuan, the most since Oct. 29. The stock has more than doubled this year.

PetroChina dropped 0.9 percent to 14.03 yuan, snapping a five-day rally and contributing the most to declines on the Shanghai index. Oil fell 2.7 percent to $77.46 a barrel in New York yesterday, the biggest decline since Nov. 12.

China implemented a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package and allowed banks to lend beyond targets to support an expansionary monetary policy, helping jumpstart the economy to grow at the fastest pace in a year last quarter and pushing home prices to their biggest gains in more than a year.

People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said today that Chinese policy makers are "flexible" about the need to maintain stimulus measures, indicating that decisions on the matter would be affected by the strength of economies abroad.

Guodian Nanjing Automation, a manufacturer of equipment for transmission plants, fell 1.5 percent to 17.84 yuan, after saying it failed to meet today's deadline to complete an evaluation of assets and had to cancel a restructuring plan.

Sinoma Science & Technology, which makes fiber-composite materials, advanced 2.9 percent to 39.30 yuan, the highest level since its listing in November 2006, after a unit won a contract valued at 1.46 billion yuan to deliver wind- turbine blades to Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co.

Wuhan East Lake High Technology, a manager of industrial parks, gained 10 percent to 10.84 yuan, after the company said its largest shareholder is in negotiations to transfer its 29 percent stake, according to a statement to the Shanghai stock exchange.

TAIWAN

Taiwan's share prices closed lower Friday, with the weighted index, the market's key barometer, falling 77.01 points, or 0.99 percent, to close at 7,682.97.

The local bourse opened at the day's high of 7,741.72 and reached a low of 7,649.19 during the day's trading session.

A total of 4.31 billion shares changed hands on market turnover of NT$132.89 billion (US$4.11 billion).

Seven of the eight major stock categories lost ground, with banking and financial shares falling 1.63 percent, the most of any broad sector.

Plastics and chemicals shares decreased 1.06 percent, machinery and electronics shares dropped 0.91 percent, construction issues declined 0.82 percent, foodstuff issues fell 0.48 percent, cement stocks shed 0.35 percent, and textile stocks were down 0.28 percent.

One other major stock category gained ground, with paper and pulp issues increasing 2.84 percent. Losers outnumbered gainers 1,872 to 791, with 209 stocks remaining unchanged.

Foreign institutional investors sold a net NT$11.86 billion in shares.

THE PHILIPPINES

Philippine share prices retreated on Friday, snapping a three-day upswing as investors digest a number of negative developments, analysts said.

The bellwether 30-company Philippine Stock Exchange index declined 14.57 points or 0.4725 percent to 3,068.73 while the all shares plunged 5.21 points or 0.2715 percent to 1,913.98.

Reflecting the bearish mood of the market, four of the six sectoral indices closed in the red. Property led the decliners with a 1.9883-percent slide.

Mining and Oil and Industrial, on the other hand, rose 3.8813 percent and 0.6215 percent, respectively.

Market breadth was negative with 64 losers against 47 gainers, while 56 stocks were ended unchanged.

Volume traded reached 3.911 billion worth about P3.47 billion.

Manila Electric Co., the day's top traded, climbed P4 or 1.7857 percent to P228.

SM Investments Corp., the holding firm of the Sy family and the Philippines' wealthiest, dipped P2.50 or 0.7874 percent to P315.

Philex Mining corp., the Philippines' largest miner, leaped P1 or 6.0606 percent to P17.50.

East zone water supplier Manila Water Co. Inc. jumped P0.25 or 1.5625 percent to P16.25.

Mining firm century Peak Metal Holdings Corp. gained P0.10 or 1.8182 percent at P5.60.

SINGAPORE

Singapore shares closed 0.10 per cent higher on Friday as the market struggled for direction amid a lack of leads, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index added 2.75 points to 2,761.54 on volume of 1.50 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$837 million).

Dealers said the market remained subdued following overnight weakness on Wall Street. There were 229 declining stocks to 197 risers, with 828 unchanged.

Banking stocks were mixed. DBS was up 26 cents to $14.86 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp added two cents to $8.48, but United Overseas Bank eased two cents to $19.48.

Singapore Airlines declined 20 cents to $13.92, Singapore Telecom dropped three cents to $2.92 and property developer CapitaLand dipped one cent to $4.09.

Container shipping firm Neptune Orient Lines closed one cent higher at $1.60.

The gross domestic product in Singapore expanded a seasonally adjusted 14.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the previous three months, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Thursday.

That was slightly less than the preliminary reading of 14.9 percent following the 21.7 percent quarterly gain in Q2.

On an annual basis, GDP was up 0.6 percent - again revised down, from the preliminary mark of 0.8 percent. The economy had eased 3.3 percent on year in the second quarter.

As a result, the ministry has maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2009 at -2.0 to -2.5 percent. The ministry added that it expects the Singapore economy to grow between 3 and 5 percent in 2010.

"Global economic developments suggest that the recession has ended in most countries," the ministry said in a statement accompanying the data. "GDP growth in key economies around the world has turned positive, bolstered by unprecedented policy responses which spurred domestic spending. Industrial production has started to pick up gain, while financial conditions and trade flows have corrected from their earlier lows, though not to pre-crisis levels."

The expansion was led by the manufacturing sector, which grew by 26.6 percent on a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis. Increased production of higher-value pharmaceutical ingredients resulted in a continued surge in biomedical manufacturing output, while the electronics cluster grew modestly on the back of continued restocking activities and an uptick in consumer demand for electronic devices.

The services-producing sectors also saw broad-based improvement, with sequential growth accelerating to 10.8 per cent from 7.9 per cent in the previous quarter. The trade-related and tourism sectors posted double-digit sequential growth, as global trade flows improved and international travel picked up. However, the pace of growth in the financial services sector moderated to 3.9 percent from 22.5 percent in the previous quarter.

The construction sector slowed down, growing by just 0.9 percent compared to the growth of 32.7 percent in the previous quarter. This moderation reflects a reduction in certified payments received for on-going real estate development projects.

"Singapore's economic outlook for 2010 will be closely linked to global conditions," the ministry said. "Asia is likely to continue to post positive growth rates, driven by domestic consumption and intra-regional trade flows. However, the recovery in the advanced economies remains fragile, and the return towards pre-crisis levels of output is likely to be gradual."

The ministry also revised its inflation outlook for 2010, pushing the band up to 2.5 to 3.5 percent from 1 to 2 percent.

The upward revision is attributable to the recent revision in the annual values of HDB properties as announced by the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore, the ministry said.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore's underlying inflation forecast, which excludes the cost of accommodation and private road transport, remains unchanged at 1 to 2 percent.

THAILAND

Thailand fell 0.7 percent as investors sold big caps amid political concerns, dealers said. Supporters of former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra plan marches in Bangkok later this month.

Energy firm PTT Exploration and Production lost 2.2 percent and the third-largest bank, Siam Commercial Bank , fell 1.8 percent.

Lanna Resources, Thailand's second-largest coal miner, said on Friday it expected net profit to be flat in 2010, held down by rising costs in its ethanol business, but there would be a big turnaround in 2011.

Output in its coal business would continue to rise next year but soaring costs in the production of ethanol would keep the lid on earnings, Srihasak Arirachkaran, head of business development and marketing, told Reuters.

Lanna Resources has coal operation at home and overseas, with most of its coal coming from Indonesia. It is Thailand's second-biggest coal miner after Banpu <BANP.BK> and runs its ethanol business through a non-listed company.

"Looking at next year, one of our two businesses should be down," Srihasak said in an interview, meaning ethanol.

"Having said that, though, our capacity on both sides will see a big jump in 2011, as will the bottom line," he said.

Thailand's economy is expected to expand 3.5% next year after contracting between 3% and 3.5% this year, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva reportedly said Thursday.

Abhisit said the government is confident that the economy will grow in the final quarter of 2009 and he noted that the global economy has passed the worst.

The Bank of Thailand forecasts economic growth of 3.3%-3.5% in 2010. In October, the central bank has kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1.25% for a fourth straight rate-setting session to support the economy.

INDONESIA

Indonesia climbed almost 1 percent, with lenders such as Bank Danamon and Bank Negara rising on an upbeat loan growth outlook.

In Jakarta, the main index turned round after a small loss on Thursday, with coal miner Bumi Resources surging 7.6 percent and Unilever Indonesia rising 1.8 percent.

The Indonesia Stock Exchange has suspended trading in shares in one property company and one marine port service company for extraordinary trading, Head of the Transaction monitoring Division of the Indonesian Stock Exchange Ade Kusmayadi said.

Shares in PT Island Concepts Indonesia a property leasing and developmnet company which promotes hotel, residence, and resort in Bali were halted after the company failed to submit report on corporate action to the bourse authority after earlier suspension in June this year.

While shares in PT Rukun Raharja the port service company based in Nort Sulawesi were suspended after their value soared 117.17 percent within nine days, from to Rp99 per share on November 10th to Rp215 per share on november 19th.

MALAYSIA

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended broadly lower today after selective buying in bluechip counters failed to lift market sentiment and as investors opted to remain sidelined ahead of the weekend, said a dealer.

At 5pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) shed 2.29 points to 1,274.36. It had opened 0.99 of a point lower at 1,275.66.

The FBM Emas Index slipped 17.46 points to 8,504.86, the FBM Top 100 declined 16.31 points to 8,310.7 and the FBM 70 fell 21.54 points to 8,237.32.

The FBM ACE increased 49.02 points to 4,436.62.

The Industrial Index meanwhile, dropped 2.69 points to 2,685.86, the Plantation Index shrank 29.99 points to 6,220.55 and the Finance Index dipped 17.851 points to 11,005.14.

Decliners outnumbered advancers by 368 to 273 while 259 counters were unchanged and 375 others untraded.

Overall volume was lower at 858.320 million shares worth RM1.254 billion compared with Thursday's 1.351 billion shares worth RM2.685 billion.

For the actives, Scomi Group-Loan Rights inched up half a sen to two sen, Maxis slipped five sen to RM5.37 and Affin Warrants perked 3.5 sen to 28.5 sen.

Among the heavyweights, Sime Darby dropped five sen to RM8.95, Maybank edged up one sen to RM6.95, while CIMB Group and Public Bank were flat at RM13.00 and RM10.98 respectively with Tenaga Nasional falling three sen to RM8.44.

Turnover on the Main Market dropped to 649.320 million shares worth RM1.212 billion as against the 995.030 million shares worth RM2.648 billion posted on Thurday.

The ACE Market volume slipped to 101.326 million shares worth RM23.663 million from 104.681 million shares worth RM27.169 million previously.

The volume of Warrants fell to 15.569 million units worth RM3.681 million against the 17.559 million units worth RM3.535 million previously.

The central bank of Malaysia announced Thursday that it has appointed Puan Norzila Abdul Aziz as Assistant Governor of the Bank Negara Malaysia, effective from November 1. She would be responsible for the Investment Operations and Financial Market Department as also the Foreign Exchange Administration Department, the central banks said.

Puan Norzila joined the Bank Negara Malaysia in 1986 and earlier served as the Director of the Investment Operation and Financial Market department in the central bank's London representative office. She holds a Business Degree from Curtin University, Western Australia and is a member of the Australian Society of Accountants.

INDIA

A spurt of buying in the last two hours of trade helped Indian shares erase early losses and close higher Friday, with heavyweight Reliance Industries and financial stocks leading the gains.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-stock Sensitive Index snapped a two-session losing streak to end up 1.4% at 17,021.85 and finish the week with a 1.0% gain.

The benchmark index opened lower and traded mostly negative in the first half, weighed down by subdued cues from regional markets after the U.S. markets slipped overnight. It traded between 16,635.75 and 17,041.79.

The Sensex has more than doubled since its March lows.

Gains on the Sensex Friday were broad-based as 26 of 30 index stocks ended higher.

Bargain-buying helped Reliance Industries, India's most valued company, to recover from an intraday low of 2,051 rupees ($43.98) and end up 2.1% at 2,125.15 rupees. The stock had lost 3.1% in the previous three sessions.

Bank stocks, which were largely week in the past three sessions, also recovered some losses.

State Bank of India, the largest lender by assets, advanced 2.4% to 2,335.75 rupees, mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp. rose 2.6% to 2,818.80 rupees, while private lender ICICI Bank added 1.3% to 897.30 rupees.

However, Bharti Airtel--India's largest mobile operator by subscribers--ended down 1.4% at 288.75 rupees after it launched a new tariff plan that cuts roaming rates for local and long distance calls by 60%.

Total traded volume on the BSE increased to 53.85 billion rupees from Thursday's 50.83 billion rupees. Gainers outnumbered decliners 1,452 to 1,240, while 98 stocks were unchanged.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty rose 1.3% to 5,052.45.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market ended sharply lower Friday and traders said it could continue to drift in coming days with no positive catalyst in sight and some concerns creeping in about the global economy.

However, many see the pullback as a healthy correction after a strong rally and believe that the market will resume its uptrend after a period of stabilization.

The S&P/ASX 200 ended down 63.4 points or 1.3% at 4685.8 after touching a low during the day of 4673.2.

A stronger U.S. Dollar has weighed on commodity prices and Australian mining stocks were sold off as a result but the losses were across the board with financial, industrial and property stocks all lower.

One of the biggest losers of the day was Insurance Australia Group which slumped 6.9% to A$3.92 after QBE Insurance downplayed speculation it could launch a fresh takeover bid for its rival. QBE was one of the few stocks moving higher, closing up 0.4% at A$22.64.

The big diversified miners were sold off on the weaker commodity prices, with BHP Billiton down 2% at A$40.03 and Rio Tinto dropping 1.9% to A$71.22.

Oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum fell 2.8% to A$48.69 after it revealed that the cost of its Pluto liquefied natural gas project is set to rise by between A$672 million and A$1.1 billion.

This prompted speculation the company may have to tap equity markets but Woodside Chief Executive Don Voelte said he didn't believe that was necessary for now.

All of the big four banks were lower with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia dropping 0.6%, ANZ Banking Group down 2.3%, National Australia Bank falling 0.8% and Westpac ending 1.9% weaker.

Among the few stocks defying the market trend to post gains were Lihir Gold rising 0.6%, BlueScope Steel climbing 1.8% and Wesfarmers up 0.2% on the news it is in talks over a possible A$200 million sale of a stake in its pub operations to Tabcorp, which fell 2.1%.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares ended lower Friday in a low-volume session, with most of the market focused on news of a capital raising by rural services provider PGG Wrightson Ltd.

The benchmark NZX-50 ended down 0.9% or 27.0 points at 3,114.08. The index fell 1.4% in the week.

Early Friday, PGG Wrightson outlined plans to raise NZ$180.7 million in a fully underwritten renounceable rights issue that it said it will cut debt by NZ$277 million.

The company said it would issue 401.5 million shares at NZ$0.45 each against Thursday's closing price of NZ$0.65. The stock resumed trading late in the session 3.1% lower and ended down 1.5% at NZ$0.64.

Major shareholder financial services company Pyne Gould Corp. finished flat at NZ$1.00. The company announced it would pay NZ$33 million to take up its rights and after the issue will own 18.3% of the PGG Wrightson.

Several stocks came under some selling pressure due to the weaker sentiment offshore.

Construction company Fletcher Building, which has exposure to the U.S. market, shed 2.3% to NZ$7.67 on concerns the recovery in the U.S. might be a long, drawn out affair.

Technology concern Rakon went the opposite direction to its U.S. peers, rising 1.7% to NZ$1.18 due to the weaker New Zealand Dollar.

Bellwether Telecom shed ground on the weak sentiment, ending down 0.4% at NZ$2.56.

Infratil shed 0.7% to NZ$1.50 as investors remain concerned after the company posted a first-half net loss early in the week.
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesGold maintained a grip around its all-time high on Friday while oil prices dipped and base metals eased as commodity markets paused for breath after their recent strong run.

Gold traded at $1,140.50 mark after hitting a record $1,152.74 on Wednesday.

Chinese consumers' demand for gold reached record levels in the third quarter as the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China on October 1 provided a boost to sales of jewellery and commemorative items.

Consumer demand for gold in China reached 120.2 tonnes in the third quarter, up 12 per cent on the same period last year, while jewellery demand increased 8 per cent to 93.5 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council which released its latest supply-and-demand update on Thursday.

The rapid growth in China's gold jewellery market following years of import and price controls run in parallel with a huge expansion in the country's platinum jewellery market where demand is on course to double this year, according to a report by Johnson Matthey released earlier this week.

However, China was the sole market to see positive growth in gold jewellery demand in the third quarter with large year-on-year falls being recorded in India and the Middle East.

India, still the world's largest gold jewellery market, saw demand fall to 111.6 tonnes in the third quarter, down 42 per cent year on year.

Crude oil prices fell with Nymex December West Texas Intermediate down 55 cents to $76.91 a barrel while ICE January December Brent lost 42 cents at $77.22 a barrel.

Base metals moved lower with copper down 0.9 per cent while aluminium fell 1.4 per cent.

As Chinese smelters are the marginal cost producers in the market, increasing production costs should put upward pressure on aluminium prices.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 Sterling fell to a one-week low against the dollar on Friday as unease over the UK's fiscal health and declining investor appetite for riskier currencies weighed on the pound.

Sterling remained under pressure after data on Thursday showed that UK public finances deteriorated almost twice as fast as expected last month, causing concerns that record debt levels could threaten the UK's triple-A rating.

Sterling also suffered as investors took profits on riskier currencies as the recent rally in global equities looked to have run out of steam.

The pound fell 1.2 per cent to $1.6474, lost 0.5 per cent to £0.9000 against the euro and dropped 1.2 per cent to Y146.46.

Meanwhile, rising risk aversion kept higher-yielding currencies under pressure.

The Australian dollar was down 0.8 per cent against the US dollar at $0.9119.

The New Zealand dollar also lost ground. Following the New Zealand Treasury's proposals that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand should keep interest rates low to weaken the currency, the Kiwi dollar fell 1.5 per cent to a two-week low of US$0.7201.

The euro also lost ground following comments from Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank.

In a speech at the European Banking Congress, Mr Trichet said the ECB would gradually withdraw the emergency cash it had pumped into the economy, to ensure it did not fuel inflation.

The euro fell 0.7 per cent to $1.4823 and lost 0.6 per cent to Y131.98.

Elsewhere, declining investor confidence boosted haven demand for the low-yielding dollar and yen.

The dollar gained 0.8 per cent against the Swiss franc to SFr1.0205, rose 0.6 per cent to C$1.0696 against the Canadian dollar and climbed 1.4 per cent to SKr6.9746 against the Swedish krona.

The dollar was flat at Y89.00.

And finally rounding our currencies as always here in China (football notwithstanding), Little change in the dollar-yuan central parity rate left China's yuan stable against the U.S. dollar late Friday afternoon.

Traders said the dollar may test the psychologically important CNY6.8300 level early next week if the dollar extends its gains in offshore markets Friday evening, prompting Beijing to set the dollar-yuan fixing above 6.8280 Monday.

On the over-the-counter market, the dollar was at CNY6.8278 around 0930 GMT, largely stable from Thursday's close of CNY6.8284. It traded between CNY6.8274 and CNY6.8286.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina is passive on the value of the U.S. Dollar as the level doesn't affect the nation's economy, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, rebuffing criticism that the government is devaluing the RMB.

"It's like watching a tournament," Zhou said at the BusinessWeek CEO Forum in Beijing today. "We just watch the game. Regardless who wins or loses, the issue of whether the winner or loser benefits the spectator doesn't arise."

Zhou's comments came hours after a U.S. Congressional hearing where lawmakers charged China with preventing gains in its currency to provide a subsidy for exporters. Robert Mundell, a Nobel laureate in economics, said at the Beijing conference that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts and a weakening Dollar have helped secure China's economic recovery.

The level of the Dollar is contingent on the global and U.S. economy, Zhou said today. China has kept the RMB about 6.83 per Dollar since July 2008 after allowing a 21 percent gain over the previous three years. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said at the hearing in Washington that he's "quite confident" China will move to relax controls on the currency.

Concerns about the U.S. economy and rising government debt have pushed the trade-weighted Dollar Index down 7.2 percent this year. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser yesterday said that the decline in the U.S. currency is a "reversal of the run-up after the panic" during the global financial and economic crisis.

Zhou also said today that Chinese policy makers are "flexible" about the need to maintain stimulus measures, indicating that decisions on the matter would be affected by the strength of economies abroad.

"There are signs of recovery, we will continue to maintain the moderately loose monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy for a while," Zhou said. "But we should also be flexible. We will monitor the economies of the U.S., EU, Japan and the emerging markets. We will have to monitor the pace of recovery in the world economy."

**************************************

A large bubble is forming in China's property market as a result of Beijing's credit-driven stimulus programme, one of the country's most prominent real estate developers warned.

Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, one of the country's most successful privately owned property developers, told the Financial Times the asset bubble was leading to rampant wasteful investment in the sector, undermining the country's long-term growth prospects.

"Real estate prices should only go up because people want to actually use the space, but at the moment we can see more and more empty buildings across the whole country and in every real estate segment," Ms Zhang said. "The rising prices are a direct result of so much money coming from the banks and the Chinese banks should be very worried."

Ms Zhang's assessment was echoed by Fan Gang, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, who warned on Wednesday that real estate in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was expensive and there was a growing risk of asset price bubbles.

Urban property prices in 70 big and medium-sized Chinese cities rose 3.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, accelerating from September's 2.8 per cent rise, according to government figures.

Price rises in top-tier markets such as Beijing and Shanghai have been much faster. Analysts say the rebound has largely been driven by an unprecedented government-led expansion of bank lending. It is also being driven by government policies, including tax breaks, low interest rates and smaller down-payment requirements.

Investment in real estate development, a key driver of economic growth, rose 18.9 per cent in the first 10 months of the year on a year earlier, a marked acceleration from 17.7 per cent growth in January-September.

Ms Zhang said the current speculation should be a serious warning for the industry and the general economy.

"In Manhattan, they have vacancy rates of 10-15 per cent and they feel like the sky is falling, but in Pudong [the central business district in Shanghai] vacancy rates are as high as 50 per cent and they are still building new skyscrapers," she said.

"If you look at GDP growth, then China looks like a new engine driving the global economy, but if you look at how growth is being created here by so much wasteful investment you wouldn't be so optimistic."

**************************************

China Minsheng Bank, the nation's first privately owned lender, raised HK$30.1 billion ($3.89 billion) in Hong Kong's biggest public share sale since April 2007, three people familiar with the matter said.

Minsheng sold 3.32 billion new shares, or a 15 percent stake, at HK$9.08 apiece, just above the mid-point of a HK$8.50 to HK$9.50 range, the people said, declining to be identified before an official announcement. The final price values the bank at about 1.77 times its estimated book value for 2010, two of the people said.

Chairman Dong Wenbiao is seeking to plug a shortfall in the bank's capital adequacy ratio, which fell to the second-lowest among the nation's 14 publicly traded lenders in the second quarter and threatens to stunt profit growth. Minsheng has expanded lending at a slower pace this year than larger rivals like Bank of China Ltd. that are controlled by the government.

BOC International (Holdings) Ltd., China International Capital Corp., Haitong Securities Co., Macquarie Group Ltd. and UBS AG are managing the sale.

Spokespeople at the investment banks and Minsheng declined to comment.

Minsheng's valuation compares with 3 times book value for the Hong Kong-traded shares of China Merchants Bank Co. and 1.9 times for China Citic Bank Co. The lenders, two of six Chinese banks that trade in Hong Kong, are also listed in Shanghai.

Shares of Minsheng gained 0.1 percent to close at 8.49 RMB in Shanghai. The stock has more than doubled this year, beating the 82 percent gain in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index.

Five so-called cornerstone investors, including the asset management arm of Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. and Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd., received rights to buy $340 million of shares in exchange for a commitment not to sell their holdings for a few months.

Hopu Investment Management Co., the China-focused fund backed by Temasek Holdings Pte, won't be allocated the amount of shares it ordered because the price the fund offered was below the sale price, two people familiar with the matter said. Hopu didn't want to buy shares above HK$9, one of the people said. Hopu officials declined to comment.

Minsheng's shares will start trading in Hong Kong on 26 November, making the company the seventh mainland bank to list in the city. Its six bigger rivals had an average 13.5 percent gain on their debut, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

China Citic, the banking unit of the nation's biggest state-run investment company, raised $5.95 billion selling stock in Hong Kong and Shanghai in April 2007. The Hong Kong part of the sale raised HK$32.9 billion after the exercise of an over- allotment.

Minsheng, founded by 59 private investors including pig- feed tycoon Liu Yonghao, aims to increase profit by at least 40 percent this year to 11 billion RMB ($1.6 billion) after growth slowed to 25 percent in 2008.

The bank, with about 400 outlets nationwide, had 1.4 trillion RMB of assets at the end of September. It expanded lending by 234 billion RMB in the first nine months of this year, up 36 percent from December.

Minsheng needs as much as 20 billion RMB to boost its core capital adequacy ratio above 9 percent, Liu Minwen, director of Minsheng's capital financing office, said in June. The bank's overall capital adequacy ratio stood at 8.48 percent at June 30. The ratio may rise to about 11.6 percent after the Hong Kong offering, Sinopac's Liu estimated.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission said in September it has forced lenders whose capital adequacy ratios have fallen close to 8 percent to curb expansion.

*********************************

China, the world's second-biggest energy user, increased the price of electricity for nonresidential users by 0.028 RMB (0.4 cent) per kilowatt-hour on average starting Friday, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing the National Development and Reform Commission.

The price of power for residential users will remain unchanged, Xinhua said today. Going forward, home users will have to pay more for higher consumption, according to Xinhua, citing NDRC.

The government controls power costs to curb their impact on inflation and it last raised tariffs for nonresidential and nonagricultural users in July 2008. The country's two electricity distributors, State Grid Corp. of China and China Southern Power Grid Co., incurred a net loss of 4.39 billion RMB in the first eight months as the government kept power prices unchanged because of the economic slowdown.

A new pricing structure for residential users will be introduced in the first quarter at the earliest, China News Service reported today, citing NDRC. The pricing adjustment will be limited to keep inflation in check, according to China News Service.

**********************************

President Barack Obama told Chinese leaders this week the U.S. expects to see progress by next year on making the RMB's exchange rate "more flexible," Ambassador Jon Huntsman said

Obama in meetings in Beijing with President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao said the U.S. wants progress on issues including the exchange rate by next summer, when talks between the U.S. State and Treasury secretaries and their Chinese counterparts are scheduled in the city, Huntsman said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

"Between now and the next strategic and economic dialogue meeting we'll want to see additional progress in a range of the issues that are part of getting the balance right in the U.S.- China economic relationship," Huntsman said in Beijing.

Huntsman's comments go beyond remarks made by Obama on Nov. 17 following a meeting with Hu when he said he was 'pleased to note the Chinese commitment, made in past statements, to move toward a more market-oriented exchange rate over time."

The RMB has been pegged at about 6.83 to one U.S. Dollar since July 2008. Maintaining the peg has also helped make China the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, with $797.1 billion in August, up 10 percent from Jan. 1, Treasury data show.

Huntsman said that he did not believe the issue of Chinese treasury holdings was "explicitly" discussed during the talks.

Obama left Beijing Wednesday after a three-day visit, his first to the country.

Huntsman also said that the U.S. was "not altogether pleased" with the availability on television and the Internet of Obama's Nov. 16 town hall meeting with students in Shanghai. He said that "over the days and weeks to come" Chinese people would be able to have more access to the transcript and video of the event.

"There is a multiplier effect that is going to build over the days and weeks to come that will ensure that the transcript and indeed the video from this dialogue including some questions that probably were not altogether comfortable for some people will be streamed into a lot of homes," Huntsman said.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 It took a while, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks on the Dollar this week finally appear to be sinking into the market.

Their timing, wording, similarity to his Barcelona speech last year, and the fact he chose to make them at all are significant. They are significant for all the Dollar-related correlation trades that have seen gold, stocks, commodities and emerging markets surge in recent months.

Will these correlations now start to fray?

Gold and oil already appear to be diverging, while the "risk on" trade is looking increasingly tired.

The Dollar has been used as the world's funding currency in recent months, and dollar Libor is hitting new lows on a daily basis. But for how long?

And what happens if/when Dollar Libor starts to inch up above Yen or Swiss franc Libor?

Financial markets should be complacent at their peril I feel.

Can the Euro regain its upward momentum, break and finally hold above $1.50?

The Fed is going nowhere on rates for a very long time, perhaps not even until 2012. Or will Bernanke's remarks (echoed by Fisher, Lacker, Trichet and Juncker - a coincidence?) put that idea to rest?

Options pricing suggests traders are comfortable with recent ranges and see no break soon, although a move lower would trigger more volatility than a break to the upside.

As ever, China could be key here. Initial indications are that Obama did not get much from his visit, but some analysts say a gesture or move from Beijing could be the catalyst for a sustained Euro move above $1.50.

On the other hand, a RMB revaluation might boost Asian currencies vs the Dollar and ease the upward pressure on the Euro and other free-floating currencies.

Obama's been and gone, now it's Trichet's turn to visit Beijing next Saturday, 21 November. In my view, if Mr Obama could get nothing out of Beijing, then Mr T has no chance!

Markets will have plenty of clues to the pace of economic recovery in the coming week, with key data due including euro zone flash PMIs, the German IFO index and euro zone business and consumer sentiment indices along with revisions to UK and German GDP numbers.

The OECD in its latest Economic Outlook expects global growth of 3.4% next year after a 1.7% contraction in 2009 but investor nerves were rattled on November 18 by below-forecast US housing starts numbers, which knocked stocks.

With the expectation of a return to growth a key factor in the recent rally in risk assets, further downside surprises would cast a pall.

Corporate results from Porsche and Tiffany will also give a flavor of sentiment among the well-heeled.

The OECD also sees debt exceeding GDP in its member countries in 2011.

Bond markets have already shown their concern at Greece's deficit and the Greek/Bund yield spread and credit default swaps will be closely watched.

Euro zone heavyweight France is also triggering some concerns with its plan to issue a special loan.

The OECD said that would complicate long-term efforts to improve the country's fiscal position.

Staying with risky assets, a flood of hot money into emerging markets has led a number of countries, including Brazil, South Korea and Taiwan, to impose capital controls.

These and other nerves in the emerging sector have rattled investors in some bigger markets, prompting some to take risk off the table, especially with the year-end looming.

The high-yielding Australian and New Zealand Dollars will be in focus and the VIX volatility index leapt this week.

But it is worth noting that options show market participants are not yet worried about big reductions in risk appetite in the near term.

They may well keep interest rates on hold at virtually zero for months on end - maybe even into 2012 as the Federal Reserve's Bullard was interpreted as suggesting and the Bank of England's dovish inflation outlook seemed to indicate - but central banks appear to already be in the very early stages of exit strategies.

Policymakers at the very least are preparing the market for the eventual withdrawal of the huge quantities of emergency liquidity they have provided.

In this context, year-end deleveraging could be a big driver for FX rates and flattening of government bond yield curves in coming weeks.
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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