Financial Page International

22 May 2010 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
"Financial markets are really out of control and there is an urgent need for effective regulation".
 
Those were the words of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble this week.
 
In response to that, I would say this:
 
"Mr Schauble, that statement has applied to the markets since 1999 when the goalposts for supervision/regulation were not just moved, but were torn down by the US Government in their desire to fuel an economic boom.  Since that day 11 years ago, markets have always been out of control but as is the nature of the beast (us humans), nothing matters when markets are going up."
 
I for one have been saying since 2007 that the whole global financial 'make-up' is a mess and one would have thought that the massive market losses from October 2007 - March 2009 would have at the very least, made investors more aware of the fact that what goes up for so long, is going to come back down with a bang.
 
But oh no, from March 2009 until the end of the year, we witnessed a massive rebound that once again was not just unsustainable, but so obviously pre-emptive of a double-dip that it astonished me how many so-called 'experts' were advising people to get back into the markets and take advantage of the 'boom' years after the second-worst recession in history.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen, forgive me for repeating myself, but I said all of last year that it was going to end in tears because all the while unemployment continues to rise, we were not - and are not - out of the woods.
 
But back to Mr Schauble.
 
"I'm convinced the markets are really out of control," Schauble said in the interview published on Thursday. "That is why we need really effective regulation, in the sense of creating a properly functioning market mechanism."
 
Markets would not function properly if the risks and rewards are "completely unbalanced", the minister said. He also pointed out the need for transparency and standardization of products. "We need transparency for all market participants," he said.
 
Further, Schauble said over-the counter transactions must be regulated and attention must be paid to the ratio of financial transactions to the real exchange of goods and services. "They bear no relationship to each other," the minister said.
 
"We need new financial instruments to cope with the huge financial tasks that we face," Schauble said. "But, forgive my saying so, minimum profits of 25% are simply unimaginable in the real economy. It isn't healthy."
 
According to the German finance minister, it is "very likely" that there would be no agreement on the adoption of a global financial transaction tax at the G20 summit in Canada in June. However, efforts would be made to see if such a tax can be implemented at a European level, he told the daily.
 
Late Tuesday, Germany's financial regulator BaFin banned short selling of debt securities by Euro zone countries as well as shares of 10 large German financial institutions and insurance companies. Regulator also banned naked short-selling of Credit Default Swaps. The move took markets by surprise.
 
Germany has "a role as a locomotive", Schauble said, yet it will keep trying to reduce deficit and boost employment. Eurozone members with largest budget and trade deficits need more fundamental structural reforms to make themselves more competitive, he said. "Spain, for example, must solve its labour market problem." 
 
Where was Mr Schauble in 2009 when markets were 'rallying'?  I never heard a peep out of him warning of these problems then and yet he is the person controlling the largest economy in mainstream Europe.
 
It seems this week that everyone who is anyone is giving out 'warnings' - shades of the blame apportionment witnessed around October 2007 just before markets commenced their infamous decline:
 
    * German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the Euro was "in danger" of ceasing to exist.
 
    * Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou warned that it might sue US banks. The Greek government says the banks were involved in masking the extent of Greece's debts through the use of sophisticated financial instruments.
 
    * Japan's Finance Minister Naoto Kan warned that the economy continues to be in a deflationary state (a no-brainer that one).
 
    * The Australian Central Bank warned home-owners of 'too much debt'.
 
    * The Bank of England warned that the recovery could be impeded by the need for substantial fiscal tightening; the need for further strengthening in the balance sheet of the UK banking sector; and the desire of the private sector to save more in an environment of increased uncertainty.
 
 Ladies & Gentlemen, I always get a little jittery when so many warnings come out in close proximity to each other - I sense a certain 'backside covering' exercise getting underway!
 
Analysts predict that The Standard & Poor's 500 Index's 12% decline from April's high may worsen amid concern that Europe's debt crisis will derail global growth.
 
This is not a typical retracement! We are in uncharted waters on account of several issues, including what is going on in Europe and other important structural regime changes. In economic terms, European developments are unambiguously bad for global growth.
 
Global stocks retreated this week as uncoordinated attempts by policy makers to resolve the region's debt crisis unnerved investors. Euro-area finance chiefs are currently in Brussels to hammer out details of the emergency lending mechanism in a rescue package for debt-burdened governments. The action is aimed at stabilizing financial markets after Greece's fiscal crisis spread to Portugal and Spain, driving up bond yields and threatening global growth.   
 
This will amplify the impact of higher global risk aversion. Some areas - like the US Treasury bond market - will also feel the impact of capital inflows on account of flight-to-quality. After over-emphasizing the cyclical tailwinds, markets around the world are now pricing in the structural headwinds, doing so in a rather volatile fashion.
 
We are entering into an extended period of below-average economic growth, increased regulation and lower consumption in what analysts are now calling "the new normal".
 
The US economy faces a protracted post-crisis resetting as high unemployment persists (as I keep saying).
 
Markets have wrongly priced in an orderly withdrawal of stimulus measures, a rebound in bank lending and coordinated government policy to restore growth. That means projections for gains in 2010 will prove incorrect and prices have to slump.
 
With that in mind, here is what another so-called expert (and one in a prominent position), had to say about Europe's problems:
 
The International Monetary Fund's managing director Thursday said the Euro zone isn't at risk of collapse, but that the growth and confidence in the zone's leadership are key issues.
 
"The Euro zone isn't at risk of exploding, the risk is that it functions badly," Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in an interview broadcast on French television channel France 2.
 
"Euro-zone countries are together and must be able to work together. Honestly, we are seeing it isn't really the case," Strauss-Kahn said.
 
He said quicker intervention in Greece would have made for a cheaper solution to the country's debt problems.
 
It had been an "illusion" to think that a single currency is possible while each member of the zone continues to deal with its problems alone, Strauss-Kahn said. The crisis is bringing this issue to the fore, he said.
 
The leaders of the Euro zone's two largest economies, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, have tried to show a united front after apparent divergence this week on regulation and the Euro.
 
In a statement just before the broadcast of the Strauss-Kahn interview, the French president's office and a German government spokesman said the two leaders had agreed in a telephone call on economic and financial issues to have closely coordinated positions.
 
Germany surprised France Wednesday with a ban on naked short selling of government bonds and some financial stocks, a move France's finance minister has said France will not follow.
 
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde also said the Euro wasn't in danger, after Merkel had said it must be defended as because if the Euro fails Europe fails. 
 
Strauss-Kahn underlined several times during the interview that growth in Europe is also a greater problem than debt.
 
"The real problem of Europe isn't so much debt...but there isn't growth," Strauss-Kahn said, noting the IMF expects 1% growth in gross domestic product in the Euro zone in 2010, but 3% in the US
 
Indeed, Strauss-Kahn warned that too much cutting of debts will hamper growth in Europe. "If everybody says, 'We're going to tighten our belts,' then...we're going to break the growth in the Euro zone," he said.
 
"If there was 3% growth in the Euro zone we wouldn't talk so much about debt and we wouldn't have attacks on the Euro," Stauss-Kahn said.
 
Ladies & Gentlemen, what complete tosh this man is talking. "Europe's problem is not so much its debt ....." - huh?  Which planet is the IMF's Managing Director currently residing on?
 
"Debt in Europe a problem? No, the problem is lack of growth" he says.
 
Oh come on, what total nonsense that is and if that is the stance from the people that are 'advising' Governments, then quite obviously all they are going to try and do is print more money to dig themselves temporarily out of the current crisis.
 
I sincerely hope that this is not the approach they take because if they do, global economies are going to eventually spiral into oblivion and even the great Chinese dragon will be unable to do anything about it - for once!
 
On to the numbers for the week that was:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummaryUS stock markets found their floor following three sessions of losses, as the financial sector rallied after the US Senate finished its work on the regulatory reform bill.
 
Bank shares advanced 3.6%. JPMorgan Chase led the Dow Jones Industrial Average, gaining 5.9%, to $40.05. Bank of America followed, adding 4.5% to $15.99.
 
Some of the most controversial measures were not included in the final bill, including a stronger ban on banks trading for their own accounts. A final version of the bill will be hashed out with the House of Representatives next week.
 
Goldman Sachs was also 3.3% higher, to $140.62, and Citigroup added 3.3% to $3.75. The sector was still 3.9% lower on the week.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly fell below the key psychological level of 10,000 after the session opened but rallied to stand 1.3% higher at 10,193.39. It was down 4% for the five-day period.
 
"The inmates are running the asylum, this is purely a traders' market," said one analyst, adding that any rebound would first be technical.
 
The S&P 500 indexalso briefly dipped to 1,055, below the trough reached on May 6, when shares made a sudden 5% drop. It then rallied to 1,087.69, 1.5% higher - but still 12% off its 2010 peak.
 
The Nasdaq composite was down 5% for the week, but 1.1% higher on Friday at 2,229.04.
 
Counter-cylical shares reversed their pattern for the week and were among the underperformers. Dollar Tree, the discount retailer, fell 1% to $61.04 after Jefferies raised its recommendation from "hold" to "buy", calling it a "defensive" play on the overleveraged consumer.
 
Walmart was 1.8% lower on the week and AT&T fell 2.2%, both relatively better than the broader indexes.
 
On Tuesday Walmart reported a 10% rise in quarterly earnings. Shares in Target, which also reported earnings, including a rise in same-store sales, were off 1.4% for the five days.
 
Gap raised its full-year profit outlook. The apparel retailer reported a 4% gain in same-store sales in its first quarter. Shares were 1.9% higher at $22.15.
 
According to Thomson Reuters, company earnings for the quarter are up 57% this quarter among the S&P 500 year over year, versus 37% in the previous quarter.
 
Dell, the PC maker, said its margins had fallen nearly 20% and warned of slower demand in the next two quarters, though it blamed seasonal patterns. Its shares fell 6.8% to $13.35.
 
Cyclicals tied to the broader economy gained on Friday, with Alcoa jumping 2.5% to $11.35 and Boeing adding 2.5% to $64.56.
 
But the group was down sharply for the five days. Caterpillar lost 7.4% for the week to $60.09, matching the broader decline. Industrials suffered after a weak Empire State manufacturing survey and a drop in core inflation.
 
Shares of US companies that generate a majority of their revenues in Europe were higher on Friday, but still got hammered over the week. Audio equipment maker Harman International fell 12%, and solar-panel manufacturer First Solar fell 5.6%.  

European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks declined to a six- month low as concern grew that the region's governments lack a common position on how to resolve the debt crisis.
 
TrygVesta A/S, the Nordic region's second-largest property and casualty insurer, tumbled 9.4% after reporting a surprise first-quarter loss. BP Plc sank 4.2% as oil is still leaking from a damaged well in the Gulf of Mexico. K+S AG and Porsche SE retreated after analysts downgraded the shares. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group led gains in basic- resources shares.
 
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.5% to 237.11, the lowest close since November. The measure trimmed an earlier slump of as much as 2.9% as US equities gained amid speculation the rout in risky assets overshot the potential damage from Europe's debt crisis. The gauge has tumbled 4.6% over the past five days, the fifth decline in six weeks.
 
National benchmark indexes rose in 10 of the 18 western European markets Friday. Germany's DAX dropped 0.7% and the UK's FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%. France's CAC 40 was little changed.
 
The Stoxx 600 has fallen 13% from this year's peak on April 15. The slide has left the measure trading at 14.5 times its companies' reported earnings, the cheapest valuation since 2008. The plunge in global stocks has wiped $5.3 trillion off market value this month.
 
Investors withdrew some $12 billion from US and European equity funds in the week to May 19, the most in almost two years, according to EPFR Global.
 
The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen 2.3% to 2,574.18 this week, while the VStoxx, which measures the cost of protecting against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50, has jumped 8.4%.
 
In less than two weeks the Stoxx 600 has erased all of the gains that followed the EU's unveiling of a 750 billion-Euro ($939 billion) loan package aimed at stopping the Euro region's weakest members from defaulting.
 
In Germany, business confidence unexpectedly fell this month. The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index eased to 101.5 from 101.6 in April. Economists expected an increase to 101.9, according a Bloomberg News survey.
 
Growth in Europe's services and manufacturing industries slowed more than economists forecast in May. A composite index based on a survey of Euro-area purchasing managers in both industries probably fell to 56.2 from 57.3 in April, Markit Economics said in an initial estimate. 
 
GERMANY
 
German stocks fell for a third day, extending a weekly drop, on concern that European government leaders lack a common position on how to resolve the sovereign- debt crisis.
 
K+S, Europe's biggest potash producer, fell after CA Cheuvreux cut its recommendation on the stock, while Porsche declined after Goldman Sachs cut the shares to "neutral." ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany's largest steelmaker, increased 1.3%, climbing with metal prices.
 
The benchmark DAX Index slid 0.7% to 5,829.25 in Frankfurt, paring an earlier drop of as much as 3.1%. The index retreated 3.8% this week and is 7.9% below its April 26 high on concern the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe will hurt the economic recovery. The broader HDAX Index declined 0.6% Friday.
 
German lawmakers approved their country's share of a $1 trillion Euro-region bailout in a vote Friday. The lower house of parliament voted 319 to 73 in favour of contributing as much as 148 billion Euros to indebted European states to backstop the Euro; 195 lawmakers abstained. The upper house, or Bundesrat, also passed the measure, sending it on to President Horst Koehler for signature.
 
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will present a nine-point plan to his Euro-area counterparts aimed at avoiding a repeat of the fiscal crisis touched off by Greece's budget deficit. The proposal includes calls for faster budget cuts, tougher penalties for countries that flout the rules and the option of an "orderly state insolvency" for Euro countries.
 
In Germany, business confidence unexpectedly fell. The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, eased to 101.5 from 101.6 in April. Economists expected an increase to 101.9, according to the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Ifo's gauge of executives' expectations fell to 103.7 from 104.
 
K+S dropped 2.8% to 37.41 Euros after the stock was cut to "underperform" from "outperform" at CA Cheuvreux, which said Europe's largest potash producer "trades at a premium to its peers despite inferior margins."
 
MAN SE tumbled 0.9% to 65.39 Euros, extending its weekly drop to 6.8%. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its recommendation on Europe's third-largest truckmaker to "sell" from "neutral."
 
Porsche fell 1.9% to 34.07 Euros as the maker of the 911 sports car that's combining with Volkswagen AG was cut to "neutral" from "buy" at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which cited "limited sector-relative upside."
 
Deutsche Telekom AG slipped 1.2% to 8.82 Euros. Europe's biggest phone company paid 1.3 billion Euros in the German auction for mobile-phone frequencies.
 
ThyssenKrupp, Germany's largest steelmaker, climbed 1.3% to 21.44 Euros, following metal prices higher. Aluminum, lead, nickel and tin all rose on the London Metal Exchange.
 
Adidas AG climbed 1.9% to 40.01 Euros. The world's second-largest sporting-goods maker expects rising sales in China in the second half of this year, Chief Executive Officer Herbert Hainer said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
 
Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG advanced 3.1% to 56 Euros after the vacuum pump maker said it expects an operating profit of 22% of sales this year.
 
Thursday, Germany's Federal Statistical Office announced that the producer price index or PPI rose 0.6% year-on-year in April, compared to the 1.5% fall in the previous month. Economists expected an increase of 0.4%. A year earlier, the PPI was down 2.7%.
 
On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.8% in April, faster than the 0.7% growth in the preceding month. Economists were looking for an increase of 0.6%.
 
Wednesday, Germany's Federal Statistical Office announced that the number of persons in employment dropped by 107,000 or 0.3% in the first quarter from the previous year, compared to the 0.4% fall in the previous quarter.
 
The number of employed totaled 39.8 million in the first quarter, smaller than the 40.6 million in the previous quarter.
 
The overall decline in employment was mainly due to the decrease in the number of employees, which fell by 109,000 or 0.3% to some 35.5 million in the first quarter, the statistical office said.
 
Meanwhile, the number of hours worked per person in employment decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous year. 
 
FRANCE
 
France's CAC 40 Index slid 1.78, or 0.1%, to 3,430.74 in Paris, extending this week's loss to 3.6%. The broader SBF 120 Index also fell 0.1%.
 
ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, rallied 48.91 cents, or 2.1%, to 24.16 Euros pacing a rebound in basic resource stocks and metal prices.
 
GDF Suez rallied 39.5 cents, or 1.6%, to 25.16 Euros after UBS AG upgraded the owner of Europe's largest natural-gas network to "buy" from "neutral."
 
Separately, the company is planning to keep its stake in Suez Environnement Co. (SEV FP) after a five-year shareholder accord expires. Suez Environnement shares slid 2.3% to 14.44 Euros.
 
Sanofi-Aventis declined 66 cents, or 1.4%, to 46.81 Euros. Total SA lowered its stake in the drugmaker to 5.88%, according to a filing with France's AMF stock-market regulator.
 
Total made the filing because its share of Sanofi voting rights has dropped below the 10% threshold to stand at 9.78%.
 
The French economy would grow 1.4% in 2010, the country's Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said, maintaining the forecast.
 
According to an interview published on Monday's edition of France-Soir newspaper, Lagarde said the second-biggest Eurozone economy is expected to grow 2.5% in 2011 and 2012. She said these forecasts are ambitious but plausible at the same time.
 
Lagarde said the economy expanded at an average 0.3% in the past two quarters. The economy needs to log 0.4% growth in the next two quarters to reach the target. Official figures showed last week that French GDP posted a feeble growth of 0.1% in the first three months of this year.
 
However, she said the projections are very difficult to exercise given the financial crisis. But, the minister noted that when the economy suffered sudden sharp drops, it has seen equally sharp growths. 
 
BELGIUM
 
The Bel 20 in Brussels closed a volatile week out at 2,395.65, up 0.38%.
 
Belgian imaging technology company Agfa-Gevaert posted a net profit of 18 million Euros (22 million Dollars) in the first quarter of 2010, helped by stronger results in the United States and Asia.
 
Both Agfa Graphics and Agfa HealthCare posted strong operational performances, resulting in the positive net result compared with a net profit of 20 million Euros in the previous quarter.
 
However the results show a more general turnaround in fortunes, as Europe emerges from recession, compared to the nine million Euro loss incurred in the first quarter of 2009.
 
Group revenues increased marginally, by 0.3%, to 664 million Euros.
 
Recurring earnings before interest and taxes, or REBIT, rose to 53 million Euros from 28 million Euros a year earlier.
 
Belgian IT, biotechnology and infrastructure investment company GIMV swung to a full-year profit and inched up its dividend due to the increase in the value of its shareholdings and lucrative divestments.
 
It earned a net 117.5 million Euros ($145.9 million) for the year to the end of March 2010, it said on Thursday, against a loss of 322.3 million for the previous year.
 
Its closely watched equity value at the end of its financial year was 43.73 Euros per share, broadly in line with the 43.10 Euros expected by analysts at KBC, it said.
 
GIMV, part-owned by the Flemish regional government, invests in the equity of mostly unlisted companies, mainly in information and communications technology, life sciences and infrastructure.
 
It also has stakes in some small listed companies, such as Ablynx, Alfacam and Movetis - GIMV's gross dividend for the year would be 2.40 Euros per share, slightly higher than the 2.36 Euros payout for last year.
 
Belgium's consumer confidence dropped sharply in May, the National Bank of Belgium said on Thursday.
 
The consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 13 in May, down from minus 8 in the previous month. A year ago, the index was minus 19.
 
The measure for households' saving capacity over the next twelve months increased to 3 in May from 1 in April, while the financial situation indicator fell to minus 1 from 2.
 
Further, the gauge for economic situation in Belgium for the next twelve months decreased to minus 6 in May from 8 in the preceding month. At the same time, the measure for unemployment increased to 47 from 43 in April.
 
According to the debt collection company Intrum Justitia, Belgian businesses had failed to pay 8.7 billion Euros of bills in 2009. The Europe-wide study estimated that the percentage of uncollected debts across Europe rose from 2.4 to 2.6% (in Belgium the figure was 2.5%), totalling 300 billion USD "of unpaid bills and lost business."
 
Further, the study noted that in Europe only 52% of businesses pay their bills on time.
 
6,000 companies were surveyed to complete the study.
 
THE NETHERLANDS
 
In Amsterdam, the AEX finished Friday at 313.41, down 0.46%.
 
Dutch state-owned financial services firms ABN Amro Bank NV and Fortis Bank Netherlands NV Thursday showed a sharp increase in profitability ahead of their merger, which is expected in the third quarter of 2010.
 
"This is the first time that the results of both ABN Amro Bank and Fortis Bank Nederland have been published at the same time. The transfer of ABN Amro Bank and Fortis Bank Nederland to ABN Amro Group on April 1, 2010 marks the start of a new era for the two banks," Chairman Gerrit Zalm said in a statement.
 
At ABN Amro Bank, first-quarter net profit doubled to Eur178 million from Eur87 million a year ago. At Fortis Bank Netherlands, net profit amounted to Eur73 million, compared with a Eur6 million loss a year earlier.
 
The improvements are due to lower loan impairments and higher revenue, the company said. However, it expects higher loan losses in the second quarter of the year.
 
ABN Amro and Fortis Netherlands were nationalized in 2008 at the height of the credit crunch, as Belgian Fortis Holding collapsed under the weight of buying a large part of the former ABN Amro Holding NV.
 
ABN Amro Holding was bought in 2007 by a consortium made up of the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Fortis Holding and Spain's Banco Santander.
 
Airline Air France-KLM booked a loss of €1.56bn in its 2009/2010 financial year to April and has scrapped its dividend payments in what CEO Pierre-Henri Gourgeon describes as a 'horror year'.
 
Nevertheless, the company is predicting a return to break even in its current book year excluding the effect of fuel hedges and subject to the cost of European airspace closures because of the ash cloud.
 
Air France-KLM said its priority is to 'control costs via headcount reduction' and to boost its unit revenues by holding the growth in capacity to 1%.
 
The financial services sector regulator AFM has no plans to follow Germany and ban the risky form of share trading known as 'naked short selling', news agency Reuters reports.
 
Naked short selling is the practice of selling shares without owning them, borrowing them, or ensuring that they can be borrowed in the future.
 
The German ban will run until 31 March 2011 and covers trading covered by Bafin, the German regulator.
 
Three former Fortis executives have lost their appeal against being called as witnesses in connection with a damages claim by Fortis investors, the Financieele Dagblad reports.
 
Former CEO Jean-Paul Votron will now appear in court in Utrecht on Friday. Former supervisory board chairman Maurice Lippens and CFO Gilbert Mittler will be heard on June 8 and June 11.
 
The three had argued that they did not speak Dutch well enough to follow the proceedings properly and asked to be heard in French in Brussels, the FD says. The court in Arnhem rejected the appeal, saying the three can use the service of intepreters.
 
A number of investors are suing Fortis for the share price collapse following the partial take over of ABN Amro.
 
In March, the financial services regulator AFM announced it had fined the former Fortis group a total €576,000 for market manipulation and failing to publish price-sensitive information during the takeover.
 
Two fines relate to statements by then Fortis CEO Jean-Paul Votron on June 5, 2008 when he said Fortis' solvency was 'on target' and 'strong'. A month later, the financial services group announced plans to issue new shares, sell off units and slash its dividend.
 
Monday, the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the exports volume increased 13.5% on an annual basis in March, faster than the 10% growth in the previous month.
 
At the same time, imports volume grew 6.4%, accelerating from 4.4% increase in February.
 
Meanwhile, the export value increased 22% year-on-year to Eur 32.5 billion in March, while imports value rose 16% to Eur 28 billion. Thus, the trade surplus amounted to Eur 4.6 billion. This was the highest trade surplus since December 2007. 
 
SWITZERLAND
 
Zurich's SMI ended the trading week on 6,206.59, down 0.89%.
 
Switzerland remains focused on reining in the rapidly strengthening franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced at a Zurich conference on monetary systems.
 
SNB chairman Philipp Hildebrand made the comment on Tuesday evening as the franc surged to record highs against the Euro despite the introduction of massive bailout measures for indebted Eurozone nations - primarily Greece.
 
The SNB is reported to have made wholesale purchases of the Euro worth tens of billions of francs in a bid to prop up the European currency and stop it sinking below SFr1.40. Swiss exporters are suffering as the rising franc makes their goods more expensive in Europe - Switzerland's biggest market.
 
Last year, exporters were concerned at the Euro sinking below SFr1.50 and now it is hovering between the SFr1.40 to SFr1.41 mark. Hildebrand said he was concerned that the strong franc could lead to a trend of price deflation.
 
Economists at Bank Sarasin believe the Euro will remain under pressure for some time as fears remain that the Greek debt mountain crisis could spread to other countries, such as Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland.
 
Swiss engineering exports fell by a fifth last year, but Sarasin's Alessandro Bee believes exporters could survive the latest currency fluctuations as domestic economic conditions improve.
 
"Exporters will certainly feel the effects of the SFr1.40 mark against the Euro, but the general economic situation is not as severe as it was a year ago and indicators are pointing to a robust recovery," he told swissinfo.ch.
 
"But if the franc goes down to SFr1.35 against the Euro, exporters might have to scale down production or even close down Swiss factories and move them to emerging markets."
 
The recent market and currency volatility has been sparked by fears that Greece would default on its €300 billion debts. The European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have put together a €750 billion (SFr1.1 trillion) bailout package to help avert the threat.
 
Speaking at the Zurich conference on Tuesday evening, IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn expressed confidence that the bailout package combined with Greek public sector reforms would work.
 
And he was confident that the bailout would stabilise other countries if they gort into trouble with their debts.
 
"One more, one less is not that much of a problem," Strauss-Kahn told the conference. "We're dealing with many countries and programs and we have the resources available to do so."
 
The rescue fund comprises €500 billion from Eurozone countries and €250 billion from the IM .Switzerland, as an IMF member, could be called upon to provide an estimated SFr5.6 billion to that pot.
 
The irony of Switzerland - a non-member of the EU - paying to bail out a Eurozone country has not been lost on the media or some politicians. But Alessandro Bee believes the projected contribution makes perfect sense for Switzerland.
 
"The rescue fund was announced to create market stability and that could only be good news for Switzerland that sends most of its exports to Europe," he told swissinfo.ch. "The fund would only be used to distribute loans in a worst case scenario and we do not think this situation would actually materialise."
 
The direct exposure of Swiss banks to shaky Greek investments is not as bad as feared earlier in the year.
 
Earlier figures suggested the Swiss financial sector had $64 billion (SFr71 billion) tied up in Greece, but it later emerged that the figures were distorted by including the assets of Greek bank EFG Eurobank that was headquartered in Switzerland.
 
When EFG moved its HQ to Luxembourg this year, the level of "Swiss" bank investments in Greece sank to $3.6 billion.
 
Compared with Greece and its unmanageable €300-billion debt burden (around 115% of GDP), Switzerland is in a relatively healthy position. Switzerland posted a SFr2.7 billion budget surplus last year while its debt sank to around 40% of GDP.
 
This year, Switzerland is expected to overshoot its budget by SFr2.68 billion, which is forecast to reduce in 2011. Having experienced soaring public debt in the 1990s, Switzerland imposed a brake mechanism on public borrowing to keep it under control.
 
In November, the government outlined plans to cut spending by SFr1.5 billion annually over the next three years.
 
AUSTRIA
 
In Vienna, the ATX rounded off the day at 2,397.81, up 0.55%.
 
The People's Party (ÖVP) is split on the question of Austria going it alone on a tax on financial transactions, it emerged this week.
 
Federal Economy Chamber (WKO) President Christoph Leitl and ÖVP finance spokesman Günter Stummvoll support doing so, but party whip Karlheinz Kopf and State Secretary for Finance Reinhold Lopatka have reservations.
 
ÖVP Economy Minister Reinhold Mitterlehner has said a go-it-alone approach should be "a last resort." He claims that such a tax would not work without the participation of core EU countries and that a unilateral approach would "not be ideal for Austria as a business location."
 
The Social Democrats (SPÖ) remain hopeful of ÖVP support for such a tax. SPÖ Social Minister Rudolf Hundstorfer notes that Leitl and Stummvoll support it, and SPÖ State Secretary for Finance Andreas Schieder claims there is growing support in other EU member states for a Europe-wide tax on financial transactions.
 
Austria's rate of inflation in April was 2.0%, unchanged from March, according to Statistik Austria.
 
The agency reported Tuesday that inflation would have been only 1.1% in April without the inclusion of petroleum products, the price of which increased by an average of 23%.
 
The agency said that higher prices for car fuel had accounted for one-third of the rate of inflation in April.
 
The price of household energy rose by 3.9% and of apartment rents by 4.2% year on year in April.
 
Food and non-alcoholic drinks cost 0.6% more, clothing and shoes 1.5% more and tobacco products and alcoholic drinks 2.1% more last month.
 
Cars were two% and airline tickets 13.1% cheaper last month.
 
The consumer price index (VPI) stood at 109.5 at the end of April, compared to 100 at the end of base year 2005.
 
The pensioners price index was 2.3% higher in April after rising by 2.1% in March and 1.2% in February year on year.
 
The agency noted that pensioners spent more than younger people on medical services and medications but less on car fuel.
 
SWEDEN
 
Stockholm's OMX completed a hectic week Friday closing on 953.77, up 0.62%.
 
After seven straight quarters of a steady decline in the number of available jobs, the demand for labour has increased in the first quarter.
 
In the first three months of this year, the number of job openings rose by 16%, or 44,100, of which 33,200 were in the private sector, according to Statistics Sweden (Statistiska centralbyrån, SCB).
 
The number of job vacancies increased in the private and public sectors at 21% and 5% apiece in the first quarter. Within the manufacturing and extraction industries, the number of available jobs increased by 49%.
 
"The number of employees increased mainly in the culture, entertainment and recreation sector, as well as in health care. Gross pay also rose in those industries," wrote SCB's Anders Eklund and Maria Nilsson in a press release.
 
The acute labour shortage in the private sector in terms of vacancies amounted to 11,000 positions, an 18% rise from 2009.
 
However, the number of those employed fell by 1.5% to 3.94 million people. During this period, the manufacturing sector lost 53,200 jobs. The number of employees working in manufacturing decreased by 8.9% from the same quarter last year.
 
Monday, the Statistics Sweden said in a final report that the industrial production increased a seasonally adjusted 4.1% on a monthly basis in March, revised from 4% rise reported initially. In February, the production index was down 0.2%.
 
Year-on-year, industrial output climbed a working day adjusted 6.7% in March, same as the preliminary report published on May 7. This was the biggest annual industrial output since March 2007.
 
For the January to March period, industrial output grew 1.5% compared to the same period of the previous year.
 
The recent crisis taught the lesson that the central bank should become more outspoken about possible future financial crises, Swedish central bank governor Stefan Ingves told the Financial Times in an interview published on Wednesday.
 
He said the world's monetary guardians should worry less about losing credibility if they "cry wolf" because of the tremendous cost to society when things go wrong.
 
Sweden's households' debt increased considerably to around 80% of GDP. "That can't go on forever. That's not to say it's a huge problem Friday but it could become a problem in the future," he said.
 
"One of the lessons from the past few years is that if there is too much debt out there, in one form or another, be it in the household sector, the corporate sector or public sector, that comes back to haunt you," Riksbank governor told FT.
 
Sweden's Riksbank wants to replace the 20 kronor ($3) note, known as 'Selman' as it depicts the celebrated Swedish author Selma Lagerlöf, with a new coin but the parliamentary finance committee has granted clemency and put a stop to the plan.
 
The Riksbank had argued that "Selman" has become increasingly dilapidated with age causing practical problems for machines deployed to process the notes. It has also become more difficult to judge whether the notes are genuine.
 
The bank thus decided to sound the death knell for the 20 kronor note and replace it with a more perfunctory coin but the Riksdagen Committee on Finance was not persuaded of the virtues of the plan.
 
"The committee however approves the Riksbank proposal to introduce a 2 kronor coin and a 200 kronor note. The reason is that they will replace a significant amount of one kronor coins and 100 kronor notes. The number of notes in circulation will thus decline which will cut handling and purchasing costs as well as ease the burden on the environment," the committee said in a statement.
 
DENMARK
 
In Copenhagen, their OMX headed into the weekend at 375.91, down 0.81%.
 
Possible conflicts in banking regulations between Gibraltar and Spain have led to a considerable fine for Jyske Bank, according to bank management
 
Spanish financial authorities have issued Jyske Bank a 1.7 million Euro fine for violating the country's money laundering regulations, reports Jyllands-Posten newspaper.
 
Activities at Jyske Bank's division in the British overseas territory of Gibraltar are at issue in the case, where the Spanish authorities assert they have been denied access to vital information.
 
In the decision to fine the bank, the violations were described as 'very serious' and Jyske Bank in Gibraltar was cited for failure to properly report, unwillingness to investigate certain transactions, and having inadequate control procedures.
 
It is the first time a Danish bank has been fined for violations of another country's money laundering rules.
 
Jyske Bank has appealed the decision to the Spanish courts, claiming that the situation is due to disagreements between the Spanish authorities and authorities in Gibraltar.
 
'Our department is supervised by the authorities in Gibraltar and reports to them, but the Spanish authorities believe they are also entitled to certain information,' explained Peter Stig Hansen, Jyske Bank's chief legal counsel.
 
He adamantly denied the bank has participated in or contributed to money laundering. Hansen called the current case 'a political matter', stating that from the Danish perspective the bank has complied with all EU rules, and therefore also to those pertaining to Spain.
 
'We have to pay the fine as it stands right now, but we plan on getting the money back if we win the appeal,' said Hansen.
 
According to documentation from the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority, the case has been underway for some time. Authorities in Denmark were first informed about the possible violations in November 2008 and information on the case was most recently exchanged between Denmark and Spain in March 2009.
 
However, Jyllands-Posten reports that Jyske Bank had previously lost a similar case with the Spanish authorities.
 
Hansen said he was not able to give more information about the specifics of the alleged violations and pertinent rules in the instant case, saying the bank's division in Gibraltar and the territory's financial authorities are handling the matter.
 
Central bank director Nils Bernstein has agreed to review the organisation's travel regulations after allegations of overspending on official travel.
 
According to Bernstein, Nationalbanken officials follow the same guidelines as for cabinet ministers, but revelations by Ekstra Bladet newspaper showed Bernstein's 10,000 kroner daily travel allowance when visiting European Central Bank headquarters was double the amount spend by finance minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen.
 
Since 2005, Bernstein and vice director Jens Thomsen have made a total of 72 trips with at least one overnight stay.
 
Denmark's total producer price index rose 5.1% on an annual basis in April, the statistical office said on Monday.
 
Meanwhile, the domestic produced goods prices rose 5.9% annually in April and imported goods prices grew 4.8%.
 
On a monthly basis, the overall price index for domestic supply of goods increased 1.3% in April, while the domestic producer prices rose 0.6%. 
 
NORWAY
 
The OBX in Oslo secured a Friday close of 313.94, up 1.71%.
 
Norges Bank, The Central bank of Norway, disclosed in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, that it holds 11.8 million shares of SanDisk, representing 5.13% stake in the Milpitas, California-based company.
 
SanDisk designs, develops, manufactures, and markets NAND-based flash storage card products that are used in various consumer electronics products.
 
As of May 10, 2010, Norges Bank may be deemed to be the beneficial owner of 11.8 million common shares of the company.
 
Tuesday, the Statistics Norway announced that the trade surplus stood at NOK 27.1 billion in April, up from NOK 23.39 billion a year ago.
 
Exports increased 11.1% on an annual basis to NOK 63.63 billion in April, while imports grew 7.7% to NOK 36.51 billion.
 
The export value of crude oil stood at NOK 25.8 billion in April, up NOK 1.6 billion from the previous month, the statistical office said.
 
For the January to April period, exports and imports increased by 0.4% and 0.8% , respectively compared to the same period of the previous year. During the period, the trade surplus narrowed to NOK 121.87 billion from NOK 121.99 billion last year.
 
Norway and the other Nordic countries are intensifying global efforts to prevent international tax evasion by signing agreements with Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada and St. Lucia.
 
The new agreements represent the continuation of a major project by the Nordic Council of Ministers to enter into information exchange agreements with international offshore financial centres worldwide. Since the autumn of 2007 the Nordic countries have entered into a large number of information exchange agreements, and together the Nordic countries hold the leading position in the global efforts to combat tax evasion.
 
Denmark, as President of the Nordic Council of Ministers in 2010, has given priority to the continuation of Nordic co-operation to stop tax evasion. The Nordic countries have agreed to extend this co-operation until 2012.
 
A signed information exchange agreement gives the tax authorities access to information on tax evaders' capital investments and incomes. In addition, agreements help to uncover assets that have not been reported at home. For constitutional reasons, the agreements are entered into on a bilateral basis and are passed in the countries' parliaments before taking effect.
 
Google and the Norwegian-owned company Global IP Solutions on Tuesday announced that they have entered into a transaction agreement.
 
Under the agreement Google Acquisition Holdings Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Google, will make a recommended voluntary public cash offer to acquire all the issued and to be issued shares of GIPS for NOK 13.0 (USD 2.12) in cash per share, or an aggregate price of approximately NOK 421 million (USD 68.2 million) based on the currently issued and outstanding share capital of GIPS.
 
The offer price represents a premium of 142.1% over the closing share price of GIPS stock (adjusted for the rights issue in GIPS completed in March 2010) on January 11, 2010, the last trading day prior to GIPS making a public announcement of strategic interest from a potential buyer, a premium of 170.8% over the subscription price per share of GIPS stock in the last rights offering completed in March 2010 and a premium of 27.5% compared to the closing share price on 14 May, 2010, the last trading day prior to the offeror's public announcement of its intention to make the offer. Furthermore, the offer price represents a premium of 54.6% compared to the adjusted volume weighted average market price for the last three month period prior to the announcement of the transaction. 
 
FINLAND
 
Helsinki's OMX wound down the week at 6,301, down 0.14%.
 
The recession that started in the latter half of 2008 claimed nearly 15% of households' property income and almost seven% of their entrepreneurial income compared with the income accumulation in the previous year, but wage and salary income still grew by around one%. According to Statistics Finland's income distribution statistics, measured by the median of households' disposable income the average income level remained almost unchanged.
 
The income level weakened at the extreme ends of the income distribution. The income of the highest-income households decreased most and the share of the richest income decile in all income declined for the first time since 2002, mostly due to reduction in sales profits. On the other hand, the income of the lowest-income decile diminished due to real weakening of basic social security and rise in housing costs.
 
The strong fall in property and entreprenEurial income resulted in lowering of income in entreprenEur households in 2008. However, entreprenEurs' income has grown in the 2000s faster than that of other socio-economic groups. The income of unemployed persons diminished by 3.5% in 2008. Over the 2000s the livelihood of the groups living mostly on income transfers, unemployed persons and students, has fallen even more behind the level of the average income earner. Even so, the income of students rose by 4.5% in 2008.
 
The average income level among those living in rental households is clearly lower and growth in income slower than among those living in owner-occupied dwellings. In 2008 the housing expenditure burden, or the share of housing costs of disposable monetary income, was 20%, on average. For those living in rental dwellings the burden was, on average, 27%, for those living in indebted owner-occupied dwellings 15% and for those living in debt-free owner-occupied dwellings eight%. The burden is highest for the lowest-income earners and it falls when income grows: in the lowest income decile the burden was, on average, 40% of income, in the highest eight%. Inclusion of instalment of housing loans increased the burden most in the highest income group, to 14%, on average.
 
A comparison of housing conditions in 29 European countries shows that Finland belongs to countries with bigger than average rental markets with its around 34 share. The share of rental dwellings is higher than this in ten countries. The share is biggest in Germany where every second household lived in rented housing. Finland's average housing expenditure burden was the tenth lowest in Europe.
 
Monday, the Statistics Finland announced that the producer price index or PPI for manufactured products rose 3.6% year-on-year in April, faster than the 2.9% growth in the previous month.
 
On a monthly basis, the PPI increased 0.5% in April, faster than the 0.3% rise in the preceding month.
 
Export price index rose 3% annually in April, rising from 1.9% growth in March. At the same time, import price index climbed to 6.7% from 4.7%. Month-on-month, export prices and import prices grew by 0.6% and 1.4%, respectively.
 
Meanwhile, the wholesale price index or WPI rose 4.1% year-on-year in April, faster than the 2.8% increase in March. The WPI was up 0.8% compared to the preceding month. 
 
SPAIN
 
Madrid's Ibex Bourse pulled itself into the weekend on 9,407.30, up 1.48%.
 
Tuesday, Spain's National Institute of Statistics announced that the industrial turnover increased 12% year-on-year in March, faster than the 7.2% growth in the previous month. A year earlier, industrial turnover was down 20.5%.
 
Turnover in durable consumer goods rose 6.6% annually in March, while turnover in capital goods grew 9.6%. Turnover was up 12.5% for the intermediate goods.
 
For the first three months of the year, industrial turnover was up 6.9% compared to the same period of the previous year.
 
Separately, the statistical office said industrial new orders increased 13.6% on an annual basis in March and was up 7.9% in the first quarter.
 
The Spanish economy edged out of a deep recession in the first quarter, latest official figures confirmed.
 
Latest data from the National Institute of Statistics showed Wednesday that the gross domestic output expanded 0.1% in the March quarter, reversing a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. This is the first positive growth since first quarter of 2008.

 
On an annual basis, the GDP, however, fell 1.3%, slower than the 3.1% decline in the December quarter. It was the smallest contraction since the fourth quarter of 2008.
 
Both GDP figures matched their initial estimates. "With the Government recently announcing new austerity measures and the private sector still sitting on mountains of debt, the pick-up may prove to be a flash in the pan," Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics said.
 
On May 12, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero announced fresh budget cuts aimed at bringing down the country's large budget deficit of 11.2% of GDP. Public sector would be slashed by 5% on average this year and frozen in 2011. The prime minister said the government planned to save up to Eur 15 billion through the new measures and that it would shave a further 1.5 points off the deficit to gross domestic product ratio by 2011.
 
The annual decline in domestic demand slowed to 2.5% in the first quarter from 5.3% in the previous quarter. On the other hand, the contribution of exports to GDP growth eased to 1.2 points from 2.2.
 
Significant improvement was witnessed in household consumption, which dropped only 0.6% annually in the first quarter compared to 3.5% in the previous three months. Further, gross fixed capital formation shrunk at a slower rate of 9.9% versus a 12.9% slump in the previous quarter.
 
"Unfortunately, we doubt that the pick-up in consumer spending will last for long," May said in a note. "After all, Spanish households remain highly indebted by Euro-zone standards and the full impact of the labour market downturn on wages has yet to be felt."
 
Both exports and imports of goods and services registered positive growth rates for the first time since the first half of 2008. Export of goods and services rebounded to 8% growth from a decline of 2.9% in the previous quarter on improved demand from Spain's export destinations, mainly from the European Union. Imports of goods and services also recorded 2.6% growth, recovering from a 9.6% fall.
 
"With exporters suffering from a severe lack of competitiveness and domestic demand set to be squeezed by a prolonged bout of fiscal tightening, it seems very unlikely that Spain is on the cusp of a strong and sustained recovery," May observed.
 
PORTUGAL
 
The PSI General in Lisbon limped through the trading session Friday, closing at 2,427.71, up 0.78%.
 
Wednesday, the Statistics Portugal announced that the industrial producer price index or PPI rose 3.9% on an annual basis in April, faster than the 3% growth in the previous month. A year earlier, producer prices were down 4.1%.
 
On a monthly basis, industrial PPI was up 1% in April, faster than the 0.4% increase in the preceding month.
 
Meanwhile, manufacturing producer prices rose to 4% annually in April from 3% in March, and was up 1% compared to the preceding month.
 
Tuesday, the Statistics Portugal announced that the jobless rate stood at 10.6% in the first quarter, up from 10.1% in the previous quarter. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 8.9%.
 
The number of unemployed persons totaled 592.2 thousand persons in the first quarter, larger than the 563.3 thousand persons in the previous quarter.
 
The labour force participation rate stood at 52.7% in the first quarter, up from 52.5% in the fourth quarter. The labour force totaled 5.60 million persons. 
 
ITALY
 
Italy's FTSE MIB Index advanced 253.86, or 1.3%, to 19,535.91. The gauge fell 1.2% this week. The following stocks were among the most active on the Italian market Friday.
 
Banca Carige gained 4.5 cents, or 3%, to 1.55 Euros after Fitch Ratings changed the bank's outlook to "stable" from "negative."
 
Bulgari, the world's third-largest jeweler, retreated for a third session, falling 9.5 cents, or 1.6%, to 5.95 Euros. Luxottica Group SpA (LUX IM), the world's largest maker of eyeglasses, declined 52 cents, or 2.6%, to 19.5 Euros. The Euro climbed to its highest level in a week against the Dollar, on optimism European Union officials will take further action to halt the region's debt crisis.
 
Cairo Communication rose 6.25 cents, or 2.8%, to 2.29 Euros, a first gain this week. "Sales in the second quarter are accelerating because of better advertising trend and benefitting by new TV contracts," Equita Sim SpA wrote in a note.
 
Fiat advanced 24 cents, or 2.9%, to 8.65 Euros, snapping a two-day loss. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trimmed its price estimate on the Italian carmaker to 15 Euros from 16 Euros, while keeping a "conviction buy" recommendation on the stock. The brokerage said it considers Fiat as "the most attractive value proposition" in its coverage on a 12-month view.
 
Exor, Fiat's main shareholder, gained 41 cents, or 3.3%, to 12.94 Euros.
 
Geox rose 19 cents, or 4.9%, to 4.06 Euros. "The shares are recouping some ground after dropping more than 20% in a week," said Filippo Cavadini, a fund manager at RMJ Sgr in Milan. He noted that Chairman Mario Moretti Polegato "bought shares in the shoemaker in light of the correction in share prices."
 
Prysmian, the world's second-biggest cable maker, increased 49 cents, or 4.4%, to 11.76 Euros. Exane BNP Paribas, which has a "neutral" rating on the stock, said in a note Friday that "the continuing deterioration in some markets is now coming to an end."
 
Saras  gained 4.7 cents, or 3%, to 1.62 Euros. The owner of the largest oil refinery in the Mediterranean is benefitting from a rebound in crude-processing margins this quarter, Vice Chairman Angelo Moratti said in an interview.
 
STMicroelectronics, Europe's largest chipmaker, rose 6.5 cents, or 1%, to 6.34 Euros, ending a two-day loss. Infineon Technologies AG's Chief Executive Officer Peter Bauer forecasts the rebound in the worldwide chip market to last beyond the end of next year, Boersen-Zeitung reported, citing an interview.
 
Unione di Banche Italiane rose 29 cents, or 3.9%, to 7.81 Euros. Deutsche Bank AG, which has a "hold" rating on the stock, said in a note Friday that the agreement with labour unions to cut headcount by 895 "is very supportive of UBI Banca, especially as it could more than offset any eventual increase of personnel expenses linked to the renewal of the National labour contract (2011), at a limited one- off cost."
 
Italy recorded a seasonally adjusted trade deficit of Eur 1.87 billion in March, larger than the deficit of Eur 1.73 billion in the previous month, the Italian statistical office ISTAT reported on Tuesday.
 
Exports increased 2.2% in March compared to February, while imports increased 2.6%.
 
Between January and March, exports grew 6.9% compared to the preceding three month period, while imports grew 10.1%. 
 
GREECE
 
The perpetrators of current problems (well, one of many it seems) Greece drew a line under this trading week on 1,595.10, up 0.81%.
 
The Greek government is determined to do the most dramatic budget reduction measures of the modern history and initial results were positive, Prime Minister George Papandreou said.
 
According to the transcript of CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" program aired on Sunday, Papandreou said his government cut budget by 40% compared to last year. He also said the government is on target to achieve a reduction in deficit from 13% of GDP to 3%.
 
When asked about Germany's reluctance to provide huge financial aid to Greece, Papandreou said the money Greece was offered is not free as its a loan, and Athens is paying back the loans it gets. He agreed with the view that Greece was "a victim of the American investment banks" and said the country has initiated a parliamentary investigation into the role these banks played in triggering the recent crisis.
 
Speaking on the same program, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said she will support the introduction of financial activities transaction tax to avoid malfunctioning of the system. However, she said it is not exactly similar to what the International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn has proposed.
 
The IMF chief said on the program that the global economy is not out of the woods yet as a large part of the recovery is still fueled by public support and private demand is still weak. "The world is a better place than one year ago, but the world is still a dangerous place," he said.
 
Greek construction activity, measured by the number of building permits dropped 23.1% on an annual basis in February, the statistical office said on Friday.
 
The private construction activity decreased 22.9% annually in February, while the public construction activity in the overall construction volume grew 1.7%.
 
The total number of new building permits issued by the authority thorough out the nation amounted to 3,465 in February, representing 0.63 million square metres, the statistical office said.
 
For the January to February period, the total construction activity decreased 6.6% compared to the same period of the previous year. During the period, the private construction activity fell by 6.4%.
 
Greek jobless rate stood at 12.1% in February, up from 11.3% in the previous month.
 
With another general strike set to hit Greece tomorrow, investors are closely watching to see whether Prime Minister George Papandreou can withstand the pressure to transform the consumer-driven economy.
 
Greece, which Thursday received the first installment of a European Union aid package, cut its budget deficit in the first four months by 42% and expects to borrow on the financial markets as soon as circumstances allow, Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou said.
 
"The program has been designed to make it possible to stay away from financial markets through the end of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012. We don't expect this to be the case; we want to come back to markets much sooner," Papaconstantinou told reporters in Brussels after a meeting with European Union counterparts. "When exactly will depend on the situation in international markets."
 
Euro-area ministers and the International Monetary Fund agreed in early May to a 110-billion-Euro aid package for Greece. In return, Athens pledged to implement austerity measures corresponding to almost 14% of gross domestic product in exchange for the rescue funds that EU officials hoped would stem declines in the Euro.
 
"The program is on track, the budget in the first four months of the year shows a reduction of the deficit exceeding 40%, 41.8% to be precise," added the minister. "The rest of the measures in the following months are being implemented and will be on time."
 
With 5.5 billion Euros already delivered by the IMF, Greece has now received the first 20-billion-Euro tranche of the loans, the Greek Finance Ministry said in a statement.
 
Athens now can and will repay an 8.5-billion 10-year Euro bond which matures Friday, a government official said.
 
The Greek government will be paying interest of around 5%, far below current market yields of well over 7% for Greece's 3-year bonds.
 
Investors are closely watching whether Greeks will swallow the bitter austerity pill, or whether the wave of public anger continues to rise, and if it does, how well Prime Minister George Papandreou can withstand the pressure to transform the consumer-driven economy.
 
Greek 10-year government bonds rose Thursday, snapping a three-day decline.
 
Greece's 10-year bond yield dropped 32 basis points to 7.95%. The yield premium over German Bunds, the region's benchmark securities, narrowed 27 basis points to 492 basis points.
 
The two-year yield slid 85 basis points to 7.09%.
 
European finance ministers said Thursday Greece's debt crisis won't lead to a continent-wide austerity drive that may tip the economy back into a recession.
 
Economists said the market feels a sense of relief that Greece will be able to meet its liquidity needs, adding that while "the default risk hasn't been eliminated, it has been deferred."
 
Greece aims to cut its deficit from nearly 14% of GDP to 3% by 2014, though the magnitude of this challenge makes it a task never achieved by any other government.
 
EU-IMF bailout plan provides sustainability
 
Ratings agency Fitch said Thursday the implementation of a 110-billion-Euro aid plan for Greece funded by the European Union and International Monetary Fund provides a path to medium-term debt sustainability.
 
The aid package "minimizes near-term liquidity risk for Greece, obviates the need for the sovereign to tap international capital markets until 2012 and offers the government a path to solvency," provided that a proposed fiscal consolidation plan is implemented fully and effectively," said Paul Rawkins, a senior director on Fitch's sovereign ratings team.
 
The agency noted, however, that debt is still set to rise to almost 150% of gross domestic product before stabilizing in 2013, "making this route a highly challenging one."
 
Fitch currently rates Greece at BBB- with a negative outlook.
 
Late on Monday, the agency noted that money market funds have got rid of all their investments in Greece and cut exposure to Spain and Portugal on concerns about high sovereign debt levels in the Eurozone countries. 
    

The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsVolatility was the theme of the day on Friday, with the FTSE 100 sinking below 5,000 for the first time since October before rebounding to close little changed.
 
Barclays was typical of the trend. Dragged sharply lower by sovereign debt concerns in early trade, the stock then matched a rally among US peers to rebound by more than 7% from session lows.
 
The shares also found support on an HSBC note arguing that worries about BarCap had gone too far.
 
Other banks followed the same path, with Royal Bank of Scotland recovering from a low of 42¼p to close up 1% at 45¼p. RBS's chief financial officer gave a reassuring presentation to Merrill Lynch's sales desk overnight, during which he dismissed worries about wholesale funding markets.
 
In the wider market. the FTSE 100 recouped a triple-digit fall to close down 10.2 points at 5,062.93. That left the index 3.8% lower for the week.
 
BP was the day's sharpest faller after US politicians accused the group of deliberately underestimating its oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. BP, which fell 4.2% to 506¾p, denied all the accusations.
 
Other oil majors were out of favour as crude prices fell for a ninth straight day. Royal Dutch Shell B was down 1% to £17.44½.
 
Miners rallied from close to six-month lows in tandem with metals prices, and as HSBC argued that Australia's proposals for a resources profit tax were likely to be watered down.
 
"Our analysis of marginal seats indicates the political pressure to backtrack or ease the tax will be significant," it said.
 
HSBC repeated an "overweight" rating on Rio Tinto, up 3.5% to £29.09, and on Anglo American, ahead 2.6% to £24.79. The broker also moved from "underweight" to "neutral" on Xstrata, up 6.4% to 950p.
 
Invensys rose 2.6% to 286¼p ahead of interim results on Monday. Recent guidance from customers such as Whirlpool were positive omens, said Evolution Securities in a "buy" note.
 
SABMiller remained out of favour, down 2.6% to £18.62 following weaker than expected results on Thursday. ING said 2011 consensus forecasts still had to come down by 5-10% to reflect tough trading in South Africa and the Americas.
 
National Grid slipped 2.3% to 563½p, taking its fall over the last two days to 9.1%. Goldman Sachs set a 544p price target and kept "sell" advice in response to the utility's plans to raise £3.3bn via a rights issue.
 
Logica gained 3.6% to 123¼p amid a retread of speculation that an Indian IT services peer could bid. Vague takeover speculation also helped stir some interest in Cobham, up 0.4% to 234p.
 
Trinity Mirror led the mid-cap risers, surging 16.8% to 110½p on volume of more than three times the daily average. Shares in the newspaper publisher have dropped 44% in less than a month and had started the day at a nine-month low.
 
Euromoney fell 2.8% to 568½p after its managing director sold his entire stake in the group.
 
Intec Telecom Systems edged up 1.9% to 55p after Execution Noble analysts said the billing software maker looked vulnerable to a bid, write Bryce Elder and Neil Hume.
 
The broker added Intec to its "buy" list with a 68p target price.
 
African copper miner Weatherly International lost 14.4% to 3p after saying it had rejected an unsolicited approach. The group said on April 16 that it had received an offer from a third party regarding a business combination.
 
Telecommunications group KCom firmed 2.4% to 42¼p before next week's annual results.
 
Liberum Capital argued that the dividend could surprise on the upside. "The results should demonstrate the deleveraging of the balance sheet and the success of the new strategy," it said.
 
Rockhopper Exploration climbed 13.7% to 225¾p on further talk of a reserves update next week.
 
However, dealers also cautioned that the Falklands oil group was likely to need more cash to fund its exploration programme.
 
Costain firmed 0.5% to 199½p after its joint venture with Skanska was awarded a second Crossrail contract. "Successful delivery should position Costain well for other work on the Crossrail project," said Arbuthnot Securities.
 
John Menzies rose 1.5% to 353p following a reassuring annual meeting statement from the aviation group.
 
Britain posted its largest April budget deficit since monthly records began in 1993, highlighting the scale of the squeeze to come as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne prepares to deliver an emergency budget.
 
The 10 billion-Pound ($14.4 billion) shortfall compared with 8.8 billion Pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London Friday. The result was below the 10.9 billion-Pound median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
 
The report sets the scene for what economists say will be the sharpest cuts in public spending for a generation. Osborne has ordered departments to find 6 billion Pounds of savings this year and will set out further measures in his June 22 budget.
 
Yet at the same time, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne plans to cut corporate tax and simplify the system.
 
Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron and his Liberal Democrat deputy Nick Clegg Thursday said their coalition government is united over the need for immediate action to reduce the deficit, which reached a post-war high of 11.1% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year to March.
 
The newly created Office of Budget Responsibility, headed by former Bank of England policy maker Alan Budd, will produce new forecasts for the deficit before the emergency budget.
 
The public finances typically get a boost in April as quarterly installments of tax on company profits come in, and there are signs the recovery is starting to feed through.
 
Current receipts rose 7.2% from a year earlier. In cash terms, VAT soared 34%, corporation tax gained 13% and national insurance contributions, a payroll tax, increased 22%. Government spending climbed 6.5%.
 
There was also a 7.5 billion-Pound downward revision to the deficit in the last fiscal year, 5.5 billion Pounds of which came in March alone as higher receipts in April accrued to previous months.
 
Net borrowing was 145.4 billion Pounds rather than 152.8 billion Pounds first reported. Excluding financial interventions, the Treasury's main forecasting measure, the deficit was 156.1 billion Pounds instead of 163.4 billion Pounds.
 
The looming deficit-cutting drive has overshadowed prospects for consumer spending. Osborne has pledged to cut the deficit at a faster pace than Gordon Brown's Labour government had planned and refused to rule out raising the rate of value- added tax, a 17.5% levy on sales of goods and services.
 
Next Plc, the second-largest UK clothing retailer, said on May 5 that it was "very cautious" on the outlook for households because "whatever form this action takes, it is likely that it will act to restrain growth in consumer spending."
 
A measure of cash entering and leaving the public sector showed an 8.8 billion-Pound deficit in April. Economists predicted a 7 billion-Pound shortfall, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Net debt climbed to 893.4 billion Pounds, or 62.1% of GDP.
 
"At the Budget I want to set out a 5 year road map for a big reform of corporation tax," Osborne said in a speech to the Confederation of British Industry late Wednesday. Osborne will deliver the emergency budget on June 22.
 
"Of course reforming corporation tax is not the only goal. I want Britain to be the easiest place in the world to start a business," he added. "We will reform the corporate tax system by simplifying reliefs and allowances, and tackling avoidance, in order to reduce headline rates". The aim is to create the most competitive corporate tax regime in the G20, while protecting manufacturing industries, said Osborne.
 
He said the personal income tax allowance will increase in the Budget. Further, the longer term goal is to raise the allowance to GBP 10,000, he added. This will ensure millions of people pay less tax.
 
UK annual inflation exceeded expectations in April to hit the highest since November 2008, boosted by clothing and food prices and forced the central bank governor to write an explanatory letter to the Chancellor. With huge fiscal tightening and weak growth expected for the near future, the Bank of England is unlikely to raise the interest rate soon.
 
Annual inflation came in at 3.7% in April, up from 3.4% in March, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday. The annual rate also stood above the central bank's 2% target and the consensus forecast of 3.5%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.6%, faster than the consensus forecast of 0.4%.
 
The largest upward pressures to the change in the CPI annual rate came from clothing and footwear, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages and alcoholic beverages and tobacco. In contrast, furniture, household equipment and maintenance added large downward pressure.
 
As the consumer price inflation exceeded the 2% target by one full percentage point for three straight months after the previous breach, BoE Governor Mervyn King was forced to write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining the reasons why inflation has increased to such an extent and what the Bank proposes to do to ensure inflation comes back to the target.
 
This is the seventh such letter to be written by the central bank chief since the Monetary Policy Committee was established in 1997. The first letter was in April 2007, when King wrote to Gordon Brown, who was the Chancellor at that time.
 
In the latest letter, addressed to the new Chancellor George Osborne, King blamed it on higher oil prices, the restoration of VAT to 17.5% and the continuing effects of the sharp depreciation of Sterling. "The MPC judges that together these factors more than account for the deviation of CPI inflation from target and that the temporary effects of these factors are masking the downward pressure on inflation from the substantial margin of spare capacity in the economy," King said.
 
King noted that the pace and extent of prospective fall in inflation are highly uncertain. He told Osborne that the MPC will continue to set policy to keep inflation on track to meet the inflation target in the medium term, taking into account the balance of risks. King also expressed willingness to expand or reduce the extent of monetary stimulus as needed.
 
By establishing fiscal credibility through an improved fiscal framework and early action to tackle the deficit, the Government's fiscal policy will support the recovery and the goal of price stability, Osborne said in his reply.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN
 
Tokyo stocks closed at a fresh year-to-date low Friday, with exporters again among the worst hit, as fears of a global economic slowdown that gripped overnight US markets pushed the Yen higher.
 
The Nikkei Stock Average fell 245.77 points, or 2.5%, to 9784.54 for its third consecutive loss and fifth in six days. Shares have surrendered 7.9% over the span, sending the Nikkei down 7.2% for the year.
 
The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues also fell 18.46 points, or 2.1%, to 879.69, with all 33 subindexes ending in negative territory.
 
Volume was active, totaling 2.6 billion shares.
 
The market's reaction to Wall Street's sharp overnight selloff was swift, with the Nikkei hitting a new 2010 intraday low in the morning session as players worried over the potential impact on the global economy if the fallout from Euro zone debt problems worsens. Several bellwether issues remained ask-only well after the opening bell as orders were balanced at the exchange.
 
Trading action was brisk, but not chaotic, and the market pared some of its early 3.3% losses by midday.
 
Index heavyweight Fast Retailing dropped 3.9% to Y13,170, while battered exporters were hit again by more Dollar and Euro weakness. Honda Motor closed down 2.5% to Y2,823, Fanuc lost 2.9% to Y9,270, and Canon shed 2.6% to Y3,725.
 
On the Osaka Securities Exchange, June Nikkei 225 futures ended down 310 points, or 3.1% at 9,730. Market analysts also noted that currency markets remain quite volatile.
 
Insurers were among the worst performers Friday, falling 3.3% as a group primarily due to worsening sentiment about global financial markets. Their weakness flew in the face of solid earnings results from Tokio Marine Holdings and others announced after the Thursday market close. Tokio Marine posted a Y128.4 billion net profit for its just-ended fiscal year, up from Y23.14 billion a year earlier, thanks to solid growth in overseas revenues. Shares nevertheless lost 2.2% to Y2,535.
 
Dai-ichi Life also surrendered 2.1% to Y150,30 after hitting its lowest level since its April 1 listing, due to concerns about valuation losses on its large portfolio of global stocks.
 
Sony bucked the negative market trend, adding 0.6% to Y2,884, supported by news that it and Google will ally in developing new hardware. 
 
SOUTH KOREA
 
The market in Seoul was closed Friday for a Public Holiday.
 
HONG KONG
 
The bourse in Hong Kong was closed Friday for a Public Holiday.
 
CHINA
 
China's stocks gained, reversing earlier losses, as investors speculated the government may hold off from raising interest rates as a slower US recovery and Europe's debt crisis threaten economic growth.
 
Gemdale Corp. and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. led a rebound for property stocks and steelmakers. SAIC Motor Co. rallied 3.3% after Shanghai Daily reported the city extended a subsidy for trading in vehicles. Xinjiang Urban Construction Co. paced gains by Xinjiang-based companies after the Shanghai Securities News reported that China may double investment in the province in the next five years.
 
The Shanghai Composite Index added 27.58, or 1.1%, to close at 2,583.52 at the close, erasing a 2.9% drop. The gauge fell 4.2% this week, extending a 21% decline for the year, on concern the Europe crisis may slow China's exports and the government will increase steps to curb bubbles in assets including real estate.
 
The government may postpone an increase in borrowing costs until the third quarter after raising mortgage rates and down payments to curb record gains in home prices, BNP Paribas said. The central bank ordered lenders this month to set aside more funds as reserves for a third time in 2010.
 
Gemdale, the third-largest developer, climbed 7.6% to 6.63 RMB. China Vanke Co., the biggest property builder, gained 4.1% to 7.39 RMB. Poly Real Estate Group Co., the second largest, added 6% to 11.16 RMB. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the country's biggest steelmaker, advanced 3.1% to 6.74 RMB.
 
SAIC Motor rose 3.3% to 16.83 RMB. FAW Car Co. climbed 3.1% to 17.17 RMB.
 
Shanghai has extended a subsidy for trading in vehicles that emit high amounts of pollution for cleaner cars until the end of the year, the Shanghai Daily said Friday, citing the local government's commerce commission.
 
Xinjiang Urban, which builds roads and bridges, gained 10% to 12.73 RMB and Xinjiang Dushanzi Tianli High & New Tech Co., a producer of asphalt, jumped 10% to 9.66 RMB. The Shanghai Securities News reported that China may invest more than 2 trillion RMB ($293 billion) in the western province during the five-year period from 2011 through 2015. The investment is double the amount invested during the 2006 to 2010 period, the newspaper said. 
 
TAIWAN
 
Investors gave President Ma Ying-jeou the cold shoulder Thursday, the two-year anniversary of his inauguration, as the weighted index TAIEX fell 134.73 points, or 1.78%, to 7,424.43.
 
Investors sold on disappointment Wall Street again did poorly in overnight trading. Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 66.58, 18.89 and 5.75, respectively.
 
Their declines caused stocks throughout Asia to drop, including those of Taiwan.
 
All eight major stock categories lost ground, with construction issues dropping the most at 2.6%, followed by paper and pulp shares at 2.4%.
 
Tourism shares at one point rose by as much as 3%, on news direct flights between Taipei Songshan Airport and Shanghai's Hongqiao Airport will open by Jun. 14 at the earliest. Yet the gains were erased by sell orders for tourism stocks later in the day.
 
Foreign investors and Chinese QDIIs were net sellers of NT$7.83 billion in shares.
 
With the index moving below the 7,600 support level, and speculation that the number of items on the "early harvest" list of the proposed economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) may be less than expected, the market may still face heavy selling in the near term.
 
THE PHILIPPINES
 
Local stocks slumped on Friday following an overnight bloodbath in Wall Street caused by escalating concerns over a financial contagion in the Eurozone.
 
The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index shed 34.44 points or 1.07% to close at 3,179.36.
 
For the full week, the index gave up 151.06 points or 4.5%, a turnaround from the previous week's 5.99% post-election rally.
 
The index would have fallen further if not for a late-surge in bargain-hunting that shored up the PSEi from as low as 3,147 in intra-day trading. Value turnover was still meek at P3.32 billion as investors deemed the market dips as a short-term correction.
 
There were 20 gainers as against 97 decliners and 52 unchanged stocks.
 
The property, holding firms, financial and industrial counters took the heaviest beating.
 
Local telecommunications giant Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., the country's most valuable company, bucked the downtrend as bargain-hunters scooped up its shares.
 
On the other hand, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc., Ayala Land Inc., Energy Development Corp., First Gen Corp., Megaworld Corp. and International Container Terminal Services Inc. traded in the red.
 
SINGAPORE
 
Stocks in Singapore closed 1.9% lower on Friday, following sharp losses in Wall Street, and amid heightened anxiety over the Eurozone debt crisis and doubts over the strength of the US economy.
 
The Straits Times Index fell 52.31 points to close at 2,701.20.
 
Volume was 1.49 billion shares. Losers led gainers 442 to 82.
 
DBS dropped 32 cents to S$13.60, Singapore Telecom fell seven cents to S$2.86 while Singapore Airlines was down 24 cents at S$14.16.
 
Singapore Airlines (SIA) posted an 80% on-year decline in full-year net profit to S$216 million.
 
Losses in the first half put a drag on its bottom line, but stronger performance in the third and fourth quarter helped SIA remain profitable for the year.
 
The carrier chalked up nearly half a billion Dollars in losses in its first two quarters, mainly due to higher fuel prices and the economic downturn.
 
But the turnaround, which started from the third quarter, kept the airline in the black.
 
The better showing can be attributed to the economic recovery, higher passenger numbers and cargo carriage.
 
Sembcorp Industries said Friday its unit Sembcorp Utilities Pte Ltd. has launched a tender offer to buy all shares of New York-listed waste water company Cascal N.V. (HOO).
 
Sembcorp Utilities will pay US$6.75 a share to Cascal's holders if at least 80% of the shares are offered by June 21. If a lesser number of shares are offered, it will pay US$6.40 apiece, Sembcorp said in a statement.
 
The move follows a clearance this week from a US court to the Singapore-based utility to buy Cascal, setting aside objections of the American company.
 
In April, Sembcorp Utilities offered to buy Cascal for US$206 million. The offer came after Cascal's majority shareholder Biwater Investments Ltd. agreed to sell its 58.4% stake to Sembcorp Utilities.
 
But Cascal's board rejected the offer saying it was "unacceptable and coercive." Cascal filed a lawsuit, claiming the Singapore company violated US Securities laws and breached confidentiality agreements. The lawsuit sought injunctive relief and recovery of damages. 
 
INDONESIA
 
The biggest one-day drop in more than a year on Wall Street on Thursday hit the Indonesian market on Friday, as fresh doubts about the strength of the US economy added to worries about European debt, causing jittery investors to flee riskier assets such as developing market stocks.
 
The Jakarta Composite Index dove 4% in morning trade before trimming its losses to 2.6%, and capping its worst week since the height of the global financial crisis in November 2008.
 
The index tumbled 8.2% over the week, and has fallen 12% from a record high set in early May. A drop of more than 10% is considered a correction by some analysts.
 
The Rupiah, meanwhile, fell as much as much as 0.4% on Friday before recovering to close little changed amid intervention by Bank Indonesia.
 
However, the central bank said that it was not considering capital controls to limit volatility.
 
Overseas investors took out a net $191 million from the Indonesian market in the last four days, taking net withdrawals this month to $263 million.
 
Yields on 10-year bonds gained 15 basis points to 9.12%, while 20-year bonds pushed 10 basis points higher to 10.25% from Thursday.
 
On the stock market, energy companies were hit hard by falling oil prices. PT Medco Energi Internasional, Indonesia's largest listed oil company, fell 3.5%, while PT Bumi Resources, Asia's biggest exporter of power-station coal, lost 4.5%. A lower oil price reduces the appeal of alternative fuels such as coal.
 
PT Bakrieland Development, Indonesia's second-largest property developer by assets, plunged 12%, its biggest decrease since Nov. 30, after revealing it planned to raise Rp 5.4 trillion ($583.2 million) selling new shares in a rights offer in July to fund expansion.
 
PT Astra International declined to its lowest level in more than two months in Jakarta trading after the Rupiah fell this week, raising concern that the cost of vehicle imports will rise at the Indonesian automotive retailer. Astra fell 1.17%.
 
THAILAND
 
Thai stocks are expected to rise when trading resumes next Monday following the end of the red-shirt riots, according to local analysts.
 
But the widespread riots on Wednesday, which included massive fires at CentralWorld and Siam Square, are likely to weigh on investment sentiment for some time, particularly among foreign investors.
 
The Stock Exchange of Thailand closed Wednesday at 765.54 points, up 5.43, in thin volume due to a shortened trading session. The SET, which itself suffered fire damage at its headquarters in Klong Toey, was closed for trading Thursday/Friday and will remain closed until at least Monday.
 
SET president Patareeya Benjapolchai said that the exchange was working with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and other agencies to assess the damage suffered to its headquarters.
 
The SET library and first-floor foyer both suffered fire damage. Key exchange systems were unaffected.
 
The SET headquarters site is expected to remain closed on Monday, with trading operations handled offsite at a backup centre.
 
It is plainly obvious though that the 10-week protests have had a significant negative impact on the country's investment climate.
 
Assuming the government has succeeded in restoring order it would significantly help rebuild confidence, although authorities should move quickly to clarify the situation and rebuild public understanding.
 
MALAYSIA
 
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended the week sharply lower on Friday, in tandem with the weak regional bourses on rising concerns over the economic situation in Europe and the US, dealers said.
 
The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI), in range-bound trade, hit an almost five-month low, led by the fall in CIMB Group and Axiata Group.
 
The FBM KLCI fell by 18.43 points, or 1.4%, to close at 1,285.73, off its low at 1,280.63. It had opened 13.65 points lower at 1,290.51.
 
The local bourse has been trading in negative territory for the sixth consecutive day, mainly due to weaknesses in overseas markets.
 
The FBM Emas Index fell 131.99 points to 8,625.67, FBM70 Index declined 138.28 points to 8,423.03 and the FBM Ace Index dipped 89.38 points to 3,836.73.
 
The Finance Index plunged 225.54 points to 11,590.88, Industrial Index shed 28.49 points to 2,612.63 and the Plantation Index dipped 67.09 points to 6,089.73.
 
There were 678 gainers and 145 losers, while 169 counters were unchanged, 384 untraded and 32 others suspended.
 
Trading volume rose to 886.436 million shares worth RM1.764 billion from 765.419 million shares worth RM1.415 billion on Thursday.
 
The Main Market volume increased to 737.108 million shares worth RM1.731 million from 648.250 million shares worth RM1.393 billion Thursday.
 
The ACE Market volume rose to 77.112 million units valued at RM11.290 million from 67.711 million units valued at RM8.621 million on Thursday.
 
Warrants rose to 53.555 million shares worth RM6.440 million from 41.508 million shares worth RM6.383 million previously.
 
Leading the actives, Talam eased half sen to 14 sen, Advance Information was up half sen to 14.5 sen and CIMB Group dropped 21 sen to RM6.86.
 
Unisem lost nine sen to RM2.66 and KNM GRoup edged down half sen to 51 sen.
 
Among the gainers, Nestle jumped 50 sen to RM34.48, UMW Holdings advanced six sen to RM6.25 and Petronas Gas rose four sen to RM9.80.
 
Of the heavyweights, Tanjong lost 48 sen to RM17.50, Maybank fell 16 sen to RM7.32 and Axiata Group declined 11 sen to RM3.61.
 
Hong Leong Bank fell 10 sen to RM8.55. This is despite an announcement by EON Capital that its directors had accepted a buyout offer from HLB.
 
Shares of EONCap was flat at RM6.92.
 
INDIA
 
Indian shares ended lower Friday as investors turned risk averse following a steep overnight fall in US equities and weak European stocks on fears the Euro zone's debt crisis will lead to another round of economic slowdown globally.
 
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index ended down 74.07 points, or 0.5%, at 16,445.61. The index, which has lost 3.2% this week, traded between 16,187.03 and 16,486.74 during the session.
 
On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty fell 16.45 points, or 0.3%, to close at 4,931.15.
 
Total trading volume on the BSE rose to INR43.39 billion from Thursday's INR40.33 billion. Decliners outnumbered gainers 2,023 to 773, while 86 stocks were unchanged.
 
A technical analysis by Dow Jones Newswires suggests the Sensex could trade between 16,000 and 17,200 next week.
 
Foreign funds have net sold $1.44 billion worth of Indian shares so far in May, but still have bought stocks worth $3.19 billion so far in 2010, data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India showed.
 
ONGC, which surged 8.7% Thursday, slid 2.3% to INR1,092.85, while NTPC slipped 4.2% to INR196.15.
 
Aluminum producer Hindalco Industries dropped 3.3% to INR151.55, while copper producer Sterlite Industries fell 1.6% to INR641.75 as base metal prices remained weak.
 
Engineering company Larsen & Toubro shed 2.1% to close at INR1,608.10, while Hindustan Unilever fell 2.7% at INR230.50.
 
ITC jumped 3.4% to INR271.50 after the cigarette maker, which also operates hotels, reported a 27% rise in its fourth-quarter net profit and said it would consider a bonus issue on June 18.
 
Bharti Airtel rose 2.2% at INR265.85 after data showed India's largest mobile phone operator added 3.0 million users in April.
 
Among non-Sensex stocks, Piramal Healthcare slumped 11.8% to INR502.35 after US-based Abbott labouratories said it would buy the Indian pharmaceuticals company's domestic formulations business in a deal valued at about $3.72 billion.
 
The stock, which had risen 13% in the previous four sessions, fell on concerns over growth at the company's remaining businesses as domestic formulations contribute more than half of its total revenue, analysts said. 
 
AUSTRALIA
 
Australian stocks fell, with the nation's benchmark index dropping to a nine-month low, after US jobless claims unexpectedly rose and concern grew that Europe's leaders may fail to contain the region's debt crisis. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's largest gold producer, sank 2.9% as gold traded near a two-week low after investors sold commodities on concern the global economic recovery may falter. Crown Ltd., Australia's biggest casino owner, dipped 2.8%, pacing declines in consumer stocks. Sonic Healthcare Ltd. tumbled 20% after the company issued a profit warning.
 
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.3% to 4,305.40 at the close of trading in Sydney, the lowest close since Aug. 21, 2009. It earlier fell as much as 3.3%. Eight of the gauge's 10 industry groups declined.
 
The index has slumped 12% this year as European budget deficits and Chinese measures to combat inflation overshadowed improving economic data and corporate earnings globally. Neighboring New Zealand's NZX 50 Index retreated 2% to 3,050.08 in Wellington, the steepest drop since Aug. 17, 2009.
 
Sonic Healthcare tumbled 20% to A$10.07. The provider of medical tests issued its first profit warning since listing, saying earnings will be as much as 20% less than forecast.
 
Commonwealth Bank lifted 1.73% to $50.94 Westpac Banking Corporation rose 2.2% to $22.28, ANZ Banking Group lifted 1.79% to $21 and National Australia Bank gained 2.23% to $23.77.
 
Insurer Suncorp Metway edged up 0.12% to $8, after the company said it plans to improve underlying margin at its general insurance business by three% over two years as it simplifies pricing and claims.
 
Mining stocks also recovered, with BHP Billiton closing 0.05% lower at $36.77, while Rio Tinto slipped 0.72% to $61.80, after hitting as low as $58.86 during trade.
 
BHP says any resource tax introduced by the federal government should be levied on the value of minerals alone and vary by commodity.
 
Rio Tinto has reached an iron ore price agreement with major non-China Asian steel mills for April to June, with increases believed to be more than 90%.
 
Fortescue Metals Group benefitted from the see-sawing trade, closing 4.2% higher at $3.32, after trading as low as $3.28.
 
Oil companies recovered, despite a fall in the oil price by more than two% overnight.
 
Woodside Petroleum edged down 0.5% to $41.38, while Santos edged up 0.84% to $11.90 and Oil Search gained 0.95% to $5.30.
 
Among retail stocks, David Jones slipped 0.71% to $4.19, while rival Myer dropped 1.65% to $2.97.
 
Harvey Norman fell 0.59% to $3.33 and JB-HiFi slipped 1.8% to $18.48.
 
Woolworths slid 1.38% to $26.30, while rival Wesfarmers jumped 0.31% to $28.64.
 
Sigma Pharmaceuticals surged 37.14% to 48 cents, after the company said it is considering a takeover offer of 60 cents per share, valuing the company at $707 million. 
 
NEW ZEALAND
 
The global rout in equities triggered by worries about Europe and the Euro swept through the New Zealand share market Friday, pushing it to a nine-month low.
 
The NZX-50 Index dropped 2.0%, or 61.33 points, to 3,050.08, its lowest close since Aug. 21. The index fell 4.4% during the week.
 
Pike River Coal rose 1.9% to NZ$1.05 after completing a NZ$90 million capital raising where the underwriters had to take up 4.5% of the rights issue.
 
Bellwether Telecom Corp., which has slumped since the start of the year after experiencing problems with the rollout of its third generation mobile network and the departure of five top executives, fell 2.9% to NZ$1.99. The stock hit a fresh all-time low of NZ$1.98 earlier in the session.
 
Heavyweight Fletcher Building, the biggest and one of the most liquid stocks on the exchange, lost 2.4% to close at NZ$7.87.
 
Rakon Ltd. lost 3.0% to NZ$0.97 after the Auckland-based maker of global positioning chips said its net loss for the 12 months to March 31 was NZ$5.4 million, compared with net profit of NZ$4.5 million the previous year. The company also lowered its guidance for fiscal 2011.
 
Property stocks, which had been dumped in anticipation of bad news in Thursday's budget, fell further when it was delivered, with Finance Minister Bill English removing tax depreciation on investment property. Goodman Property fell 4.1% to NZ$0.93, Kiwi Income Property fell 3.2% to NZ$0.92 and AMP Office Trust fell 1.4% to NZ$0.72.
 
Property for Industry, which estimated the budget measures would reduce distributable earnings per share by 4% to 5% in the year ending Dec. 31 2011, fell 2.6% to NZ$1.14.            
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesCommodity prices stabilised on Friday after a week of hefty losses triggered by fresh economic concerns.
 
Still, the late and small recovery in oil, metals and agricultural commodities did not prevent the Reuters-Jefferies CRB commodities index dropping 2.3% on the week and 9.0% so far this month.
 
The market is split about future direction. Some analysts believe that selling pressure will continue amid concerns that commodities demand growth will slow in the second half of the year.
 
In late afternoon trading in London on Friday, Nymex July West Texas Intermediate oil rose 10 cents to $70.90 a barrel while ICE July Brent moved 63 cents higher to $72.47 a barrel. But over the week, July WTI fell 6.2% while July Brent fell 7.3%.
 
Crude-oil for July delivery, the most active contract, lost $0.76, or 1.1%, to settle at $70.04 a barrel. In other energy futures, heating oil fell 0.50%, or $0.09, to $1.89 a gallon while natural gas fell 1.32%, or $1.08, to $4.05 per million British thermal units.
 
Meanwhile, gold for June delivery lost $12.50, or 1%, to close at $1,176 an ounce. In other metal futures, silver fell 0.28%, or $0.05, to $17.65.
 
Gold fell for the fourth session in a row as investors unwound their hedged positions in the commodity.
 
Among base metals and minerals, copper for delivery in three months at the London Metal Exchange jumped 3.4% on the day but still was down 1.3% on the week at $6,789 a tonne. Aluminium fell 1.3% during the week but was able to recover the $2,000-a-tonne level on Friday.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Euro recovered from a four-year low against the Dollar this week as worries over sovereign debt sparked panic in global markets.
 
The Euro fell to a low of $1.2142 against the Dollar on Wednesday, its weakest level since late-April 2006, after a German ban on short selling of European government bonds and some German financial stocks spooked investors.
 
This left the Euro in the firing line as a way for investors to express negative sentiment towards Eurozone growth prospects.
 
But as turmoil gripped global markets, the Euro recovered from its lows as a wave of deleveraging prompted investors to cut back positions.
 
Some put the Euro's rally down to fears that the European Central Bank might intervene in the markets to stem the single currency's recent slide, however analysts dismissed the speculation.
 
During the week the Euro rose 1.6% to $1.2552 against the Dollar and climbed 2.2% to £0.8698 against the Pound.
 
The Euro also rose 2.9% to SFr1.4411 against the Swiss franc on the week amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank had intervened to halt the slide in its currency against the Euro.
 
The Australian Dollar was the biggest victim of the global deleveraging. Over the week, the Australian Dollar slid 6.7% to a 10-month low of $0.8268 against the US Dollar and dropped 9.4% to Y74.14 against the Yen.
 
Other commodity-linked currencies suffered with the New Zealand Dollar tumbling 4.7% to $0.6735 against the Dollar over the week.
 
Meanwhile, the Dollar rose 0.7% to $1.4429 against the Pound over the week but lost ground against the Yen as the wave of deleveraging boosted haven demand for the Japanese currency.
 
The Yen rose 3% to Y89.72 against the Dollar over the week, climbed 1.2% to Y113.05 against the Euro and gained 3.6% to Y129.55 against the Pound.
 
Asian currencies slumped this week, with the Philippine Peso setting its worst performance in more than nine years.
 
The Peso dropped 3.7% to 46.496 per Dollar, the biggest weekly loss since October 2000. Malaysia's Ringgit fell 3.7% to 3.2265, its worst performance in 12 years. South Korea's Won slid 5.3% in the last four days to 1,194.80 before markets closed Friday for a public holiday.
 
The Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region's 10 most- traded currencies excluding the Yen, dropped 1.8% this week and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares slid 7%.
 
Australia's Dollar rose eventually Friday, reversing earlier declines of more than 1%, amid speculation policy makers may seek to contain this month's plunge in currencies including the Aussie and the Euro.
 
The Australian currency pared its biggest weekly loss since October 2008 after the Treasury said Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will visit Germany and the UK next week to discuss the European debt crisis. Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said policy makers need to watch currency movements closely, adding that excessive Yen movements are undesirable.
 
South Africa's Rand gained for the first time in three days, paring its biggest weekly drop in almost seven months, as its slump to a six-month low Thursday prompted investors to buy the currency.
 
The Rand appreciated as much as 2.2% to 7.8467 per Dollar, the biggest intraday gain since 10 May. The currency traded 2% stronger at 7.8483 by 5:24 p.m. in Johannesburg, trimming this week's decline to 4%, the steepest slide since the five days ended 30 October.
 
And finally here in China and the RMB. The RMB was slightly higher against the US Dollar late Friday afternoon due to strong demand for the local currency as banks settled a central bank bond sale, though expectations Beijing will stick to its stable RMB policy capped the rise.
 
On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.8277 around 0930 GMT, down from Thursday's close of CNY6.8279. It traded in a tight range between CNY6.8273 and CNY6.8280.        
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsA senior Chinese finance official on Thursday urged major reserve-currency nations to keep their exchange rates stable amid the Euro-zone debt crisis, suggesting that China will wait to see more economic clarity in Europe before moving on its own currency.
 
The comments by Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao ahead of strategic talks between China and the US next week marked another sign that China will resist pressure from the US to allow the Chinese currency to appreciate faster.
 
China Vice Premier Wang Qishan and US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will lead the economic side of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue as hundreds of government officials from Washington and Beijing convene in the Chinese capital for the second round of high-level talks since President Barack Obama took office. The two-day talks start Monday.
 
Mr. Zhu told reporters during a news conference that the sovereign debt crisis rattling Europe is a manifestation of the global financial crisis.
 
The crisis "is a challenge for the stability of the global financial markets," he said. "It bears on the progress of world recovery. Therefore the international community needs to work together to counter the challenge."
 
Mr. Zhu said that just as all countries worked hand-in-hand to tackle the challenges of the global financial crisis that erupted in September 2008, "in the face of the challenges posed by the sovereign debt crisis, China, the US and European countries need to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination."
 
"This issue reflects that systemic risks still exist in the international economic system," Mr. Zhu said. He said the Euro-zone crisis should be a reminder that governments must maintain the stability and responsiveness of their macro policies.
 
"We hope that as we jointly tackle the challenges, major reserve-currency-issuing countries will undertake their due responsibilities and work to maintain the stability of exchange rates between major currencies so as to create a favorable environment for world economic recovery."
 
Beijing has acknowledged that its reform toward a more market-oriented exchange rate was put on hold to provide stability and help China weather the global financial crisis. While market expectations have been building for Beijing to let the RMB appreciate to counter domestic inflationary pressures, Mr. Zhu's comments appeared to confirm analysts' expectations that China will hold off any currency adjustment until the Euro-zone crisis eases.
 
In March, People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said that China would exit the special exchange rate mechanism-in reference to the defacto peg the RMB has held to against the Dollar since July 2008-at some point.
 
Mr. Zhu said the direction and principles of China's RMB exchange-rate system reform remains unchanged, but he said that detailed measures of how it will happen will be based on the world economic situation and China's own economic performance.
 
"I want to specifically point out that we will not succumb to external pressure, while promoting the process," Mr. Zhu said.
 
But Mr. Zhu said that China and the US "should maintain quiet communication" on the exchange rate issue; does 'quiet communication' mean "shut up"?
 
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Economists are paring back forecasts for higher interest rates in China as the government seeks to cool the property market and Europe's sovereign-debt crisis threatens the global recovery.
 
Deutsche Bank AG this week cut its estimate to a single 27 basis point move this year, from a previous forecast of two to three increases. Morgan Stanley said the central bank may act in the second half of the year, not the first.
 
The state-run China Securities Journal said in a front-page editorial today that the nation can wait until the second half of 2010 or next year to raise benchmark rates as economic growth slows. An intensified government crackdown on property speculation has contributed to the Shanghai Composite Index sliding more than 20% this year.
 
The economists made revisions even after the National Development and Reform Commission said this week that inflation may rise to about 3% in May and June, a level that some analysts said this month could trigger an interest-rate increase.
 
The People's Bank of China has kept the one-year lending rate at 5.31% and the deposit rate at 2.25% after cuts in late 2008 to counter the effects of the global financial crisis, which slashed exports. While the nation's shipments have climbed 29% this year, the European crisis clouds the outlook for global demand.
 
The Securities Journal also said in today's editorial that pressure for gains by the RMB, or renminbi, may decline as China's trade surplus shrinks. The China Daily, another state- run newspaper, cited central bank adviser Li Daokui as saying that the RMB is unlikely to be a major issue at next week's talks between the US and China in Beijing.
 
The Chinese economy, the world's third biggest, expanded 11.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier and property prices rose a record 12.8% in April.
 
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A new measure of China's economic growth prospects is moderating after a strong rebound last year, but isn't signaling the sharp slowdown feared by some investors, said the Conference Board, a private research organization.
 
The New York-based nonprofit group, known for its US consumer-confidence index and other data series, published its leading economic index for China for the first time on Monday. The index was up an annualized 7% for the six-month period ended March, slowing from a 10.2% annualized rise in the previous six-month period. The group's analysts said gains in the index are still well above trend levels, but have come down somewhat in the past couple of months.
 
"The strong cyclical rebound we saw over 2009 seems to have receded, and we're entering a new growth path in China. We're seeing some stabilization of growth, and possibly a more moderate growth rate," said William Adams, the Conference Board's resident economist in Beijing, in a conference call with reporters.
 
Many investors are concerned that recent government moves to rein in rapidly rising housing prices could end up hurting one of the main engines of the Chinese recovery. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has fallen sharply since mid-April, when Beijing adopted a package of tough policies to control real-estate lending and purchases. It fell 5.1% on Monday to its lowest close in more than a year.
 
China's official economic data for April, published last week, didn't show a significant cooling of overall growth. But it can be difficult to detect shifts of direction in China's official statistics, which usually only show changes relative to the previous year.
 
The Conference Board's new index is part of a growing effort by private-sector economists to supplement sometimes-confusing official indicators. "We've been researching this for four years...to address the concerns people have about Chinese statistical data," said Mr. Adams.
 
The Conference Board, which established its China center in 2005, publishes leading economic indexes for the US and other large economies, such as Japan, Mexico and South Korea. The China leading index is calculated according to the same methodology. If it were to show zero growth or a decline, it would be a signal of a significant upcoming slowdown. The Conference Board says the index would have given advance warning of both the sharp slowdown in late 2008 and a recession in the late 1980s.
 
Mr. Adams said the group is monitoring the impact of April's property measures, which weren't captured in the current survey. "After the administrative controls were implemented in April, the question is how this will hold up," Mr. Adams said.
 
Real-estate activity was strong in March, he said, but that may have been because developers front-loaded projects ahead of the government's new policies. With national-average property prices rising in April at a record pace of 12.8% from a year earlier, many analysts expect further measures to deal with the social and economic pressures from high housing costs.
 
"The recovery from 2009 was mainly driven by credit expansion, investment in real estate and investment in infrastructure, and all of these have moderated in recent months," Mr. Adams said. "Economic activity in China is currently strong, but we're not expecting acceleration of the Chinese economy over the next couple of months."
 
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China New Borun Corp., a producer and distributor of corn-based edible alcohol in China, disclosed that it estimates pricing its initial public offering of 5.50 million American Depositary Shares, representing 5.50 million ordinary shares, between $12 and $14 per ADS.
 
China New Borun filed its registration statement on Form F-1 for the offering of up to $92 million of ADSs on April 27, 2010. The Shandong-based company's proposed trading symbol on New York Stock Exchange is "BORN"
 
China New Borun noted that the underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to 825,000 additional ADSs to cover over-allotments, if any.
 
The company said it currently intends to use approximately $55 million of the net proceeds to complete construction of Phase III at Daqing facility, and remaining portion for working capital.
 
King River Holding Ltd., Star Elite Enterprises Ltd., Earnstar Holding Ltd., TDR Advisors Inc. are the principal shareholders of the company, according to the filing.
 
For the three months ended March 31, 2010, the company's net income was $8.56 million, and revenues were $56.96 million.
 
Piper Jaffray & Co., Cowen and Company, LLC, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Newbridge Securities Corp. are acting as the underwriters for the offering.
 
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China's inflation may accelerate to around 3% in May and June from 2.8% recorded in April, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its website Tuesday.
 
The NDRC also anticipates that in the first half of 2010, the CPI inflation will average at 2.5%. In the second quarter, prices of fresh vegetables, fruits and other agricultural produces are expected to drop slightly as the agency foresee increased supply influenced by weather factors.
 
Last week, the NDRC had stated that the Chinese government is all set to achieve its inflation target of 3% for this year, given the robust economic growth of the country.
 
China's leading economic indicator rose 1.1% to 144.5 in March, research group Conference Board said Monday. This is for the first time the Conference Board released leading economic index for China.
 
The think tank said the country's economic growth remains strong. However, the recent behavior of the index suggests that the economic expansion is unlikely to accelerate further through the summer months.
 
Bill Adams, Resident Economist for the Conference Board China Center, said the construction activity gave a strong support for the economic growth.
 
The Conference Board's coincident index, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4% to 179.8.
 
The Chinese economy expanded 11.9% annually in the first three months of this year. But, the country is struggling to address rising property prices and inflationary pressure.  
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 Next week in the US, more retailers as well as some big food companies are among those posting quarterly results.
 
Next week's US economic calendar includes the Monday release of April existing home sales expected at 559k compared to .... 559k last month - so no change there.
 
On Thursday preliminary Q1 GDP will be released expected also unchanged at 3.2% along with initial jobless claims for the week ending 22 May expected as 460k compared for 471k last week.
 
The US House of Representatives is scheduled to vote Tuesday on a measure to raise taxes on investment managers, many professionals and some multinational businesses, in order to pay for economic-relief initiatives.
 
Next week's EU economic calendar includes the Tuesday release of March EU industrial orders expected at 0.9% compared to 1.5% last month.
 
On Tuesday German GFK index for June will be released expected at 3.9 compared to 3.8 last month.
 
French May business climate and April consumer spending and housing will be released on Wednesday. The business climate is expected at 96 compared to 97 last month, consumer spending is expected at 0.8% compared to1.2% last month and housing starts are expected to decline by 2% compared to 3.3% last month.
 
On Thursday German May CPI will be released expected at 0.2% compared to -0.1% last month.
 
Next week's UK economic calendar is very light next week but does include the May Tuesday release of release of Q1 GDP expected at 0.4%. On Thursday May CBI distributive retail trade will be released expected at 14 compared to 13 last month.
 
In contrast, next week's Japanese calendar is massive. It includes the Monday release of March all industry activity expected -1.7% compared to -2.3% last month. On Thursday April trade balance will be released expected at ¥610bln compared to ¥949bln last month.
 
On Friday in Tokyo April CPI will be released expected at 0.2% compared to 0.3% last month along with April household spending and unemployment and retail sales. Household spending is expected to fall by 0.6% compared to 4.4% last month, the unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 5% and retail sales are expected to fall by 0.5% compared to a 0.8% rise last month.
 
Down under, next week's Australian releases include the Thursday release of Q1 capital expenditure expected 4.8% compared to 5.5% last quarter and March leading index expected at -0.1% compared to -0.3% last month. On May 31st April retail sales will be released expected to rise by 0.8% along with Q1 current account, Q1 company profits and April private sector credit.
 
But of course, economic calendars globally will take a back-seat to what is happening with the Euro.
 
As you know, worries about the long-term solvency of Greece and some other Euro zone countries persist despite the creation of a $1 trillion rescue fund for those in financial trouble, and it has to be feared that the belt-tightening required of governments that would draw on the aid will slow Euro zone economic growth to a crawl.
 
The Euro was hammered early/mid week but on Friday it rebounded as Germany and France pledged to cooperate more closely and as fears of central bank intervention to support the Euro forced traders who had bet against the currency to buy it back in what's known as a "short squeeze."
 
It's pretty much been a tug of war between those who have been steadily trimming exposure to Euro zone fixed-income assets and those rushing to cover Euro shorts, which swelled to an all-time high in mid-May.
 
Ultimately, the longer-term structural flow will win out and the Euro will come back down, falling below the 1.21 we saw this week, of that I am certain. It has to when you think about it because the underlying asset allocation shift will prove the dominant force - there can be no escaping that.
 
Also, since the mention of that 1 Trillion Dollar 'bail-out', have you met anyone that has said this makes them feel better about the Euro or the underlying solvency issues for Greece or some of the other countries? No, of course not and so in my humble opinion, the Euro can defy gravity for a while but not for very long.
 
It also has to be remembered that the market had been in aggressive, risk-seeking mode since early 2009, with investors using the Dollar and Yen to finance lucrative trades in other currencies and assets.
 
In addition to large Euro shorts, bets in favour of the three highest-yielding G10 currencies and against the three lowest-yielding ones have climbed to within 2% of the heady levels seen before the 2007-2009 crisis erupted.
 
As a result, market moves this week can be seen as risk reducing, nothing more or less.
 
Lurking beneath the surface though, is a nagging fear that trouble in the Euro zone could spread, particularly if markets stop trusting European banks exposed to heavily indebted Euro zone countries.
 
The worst-case scenario would be a re-run of the sort of market freeze that resulted after US investment bank Lehman Brothers failed in 2008.
 
The fear is most visible in the options market, where investors are willing to pay more handsomely for protection against a sharp decline than a sharp rise in the Australian Dollar, a high-yield, commodity-linked currency that tends to outperform when world growth prospects are good.
 
That's despite Australia's solid growth and a central bank that has lifted interest rates five times since late 2009 to the highest level among developed countries!
 
This just shows the fear factor - people can't stomach not having the downside insurance in current market conditions - and I understand that fully.
 
Even if the Euro resumes its slide next week, I doubt very much that the European Central Bank will intervene in the market to support it, despite fears and rumours to the contrary.
 
The Euro remains well above fair value around $1.18, and the ECB's move to cut government borrowing costs by buying Euro zone debt has eased some (but not too much) fear. What's more, low Euro zone interest rates could complicate the ECB's chances of success.
 
Central banks don't like to intervene against the trend; when the Euro went to $1.60 (in 2008), nobody intervened to boost the Dollar did they?
 
The ECB last intervened in 2000, when it bought Euros with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan after the currency hit a record low of $0.8225, 30% below its value at inception in 1999.
 
So all told, I wouldn't get too carried away by the Euro's rebound Friday - I personally think it is going to be short-lived and can see the Euro dipping below 1.20 within the next 2 weeks.
 
Whichever way we look at things though, next week could be just as choppy/messy as the week we have just had!
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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