Financial Page International

24 October 2009 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
"The sheer stupidity of it"!

There was a rant brewing after I watched markets in the US Thursday witness a large spike in new jobless claims, but because MacDonalds posted 'better-than-expected' numbers, those same US markets went UP.

Totally irrational and I was all set to 'rant away' this morning - easy enough to do given the total irrationality of the US trading day Thursday.

But you were spared my Saturday Soap Box simply by the fact that US markets discarded those gains away last night and started to see a little sense - albeit just a tad!

I want now to talk about the US Dollar because I have been asked repeatedly this week for my views.

A bearish frenzy has developed in the US Dollar, and is probably the strongest consensus I've seen since the bullish stampede in oil futures crashed last Summer. With publicity hungry commentators from historian Niall Ferguson to journalists spinning lurid Chinese/Arab conspiracy theories weighing in with their economic insights, and hedge funds leveraging up aggressively again on the global carry trade using the Dollar as a 'free' funding currency, it's time for a reality check.

Whilst it pains me to say this, there simply is no alternative to the Dollar as the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future; fact.

While the Dollar's share of CB reserves has declined from 72% to just over 62% this decade, this is the result of the Euro's emergence, with the Yen still a paltry 3% of global forex holdings.

Total Dollar holdings have steadily risen and even this year, China has continued to accumulate Dollar assets, while grumbling about US economic policy. It will be at least a decade before RMB convertibility is a real prospect, and only then if China can radically overhaul its financial markets in the meantime, developing deep capital markets and hedging mechanisms and gradually opening its capital account.

At the moment, even in Hong Kong, less than 2% of trade is conducted in RMB. As for that complex proposed IMF basket currency, which Dollar bears offer as a real alternative, call me when a Colombian drug smuggler is caught with a suitcase full of the things.

The structural nature of America's trade deficit has been demonstrated this year by the fact it still remained at 3% of GDP in Q2, in the depths of the recession (from 7% at the peak of the boom in 2007, when its funding was soaking up 70% of global excess reserves).

In fact, the US hasn't run a trade surplus since the early 1990's recession, and that constant funding requirement places ongoing pressure on the Dollar.

I've commented at length on the dangers of current Fed policy, which does little to alleviate deflation in real assets while stoking hyperinflation in financial ones, and to the extent it is spiking commodity prices, undermining a real recovery.

If it was down to me, I'd immediately place the $870bn in excess commercial bank reserves at the Fed at a negative interest rate (ie. charge them for the privilege of parking their cash, as the Swedes have already done) and simultaneously hike rates by 50bps.

This would certainly correct the current dangerous distortion of the monetary base.

Those reserves, applying the typical 7-8x deposit to loan multiplier over the last couple of decades, would translate into a credit surge equivalent to 40-50% of US GDP, underwriting a cyclical recovery, and closing the divergence between the Fed's $1.2trn of quantitative easing and the $110bn rise in M2 money supply as stymied by commercial bank capital hoarding.

Simple from where I'm standing; step down Mr Bernanke, step up Mr P!

By hiking rates now, you offset the inflationary implications on expectations, while underpinning the Dollar and supporting foreign capital flows while the US economy rebalances after a decade of excess consumption and underinvestment.

Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner may talk the talk on the need for higher US household savings, but a zero interest rate policy is punishing thrift.

The Fed's emergency response to last year's financial panic was appropriate and decisive in tackling a deflationary threat, but it now needs urgent adjustment, before the law of unintended consequences results in a new bout of economic turbulence and a fatal loss of credibility.

Even without a radical rethink, such is the bearish extreme we have now reached (reflected in the sense of panic at central banks from Europe to Brazil) that a snapback rally of 15-20% is likely imminent, leaving the consensus confounded.

Basically, the US Dollar is in my opinion 'up a creek without a paddle' and will continue to drop (I did say 1.80 against Sterling and 1.60 against the Euro by the end of the year - my end of 2008 Newsletter predicted this) but once we get to approaching parity with Sterling, where does it go from there if there is no alternative to the Dollar?

Yes, the Dollar will lose its status as the global currency of choice but 'no', this is not going to happen anytime soon and forget talk of the RMB, the Euro or the Yen replacing it, not a hope of the Yen or Euro ever replacing it and the RMB is 10-15 years away (it not 20).

A more likely route in my view is that the US may re-vamp that first-thought-of-in-Canada idea of The Amero, thus at least keeping the mainstream currency 'local' (for those of you that have never heard of the Amero, please click Here).

But as you know, the US would rather hang on to a dying US Dollar than admit that they have 'failed' and the rest of the world is going to enjoy watching them squirm in defeat I feel.

So the Dollar is here to stay for the immediate future; weak or not!

On to the numbers on the boards this week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks fell, wiping out a weekly gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as a drop in oil weighed on energy producers and disappointing results at the nation's largest railroad dragged down industrial shares.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Schlumberger Ltd. led energy shares lower after crude slid for a second day as the Dollar rebounded. Industrial shares in the S&P 500 lost 1.7% as a group, led by railroad stocks, after Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. forecast profit below analyst estimates. Technology shares posted the smallest drop among 10 groups as Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. surged on better-than-estimated earnings.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% to 1,079.6 at 4:03 p.m. in New York. The main benchmark for American equities slipped 0.7% this week after closing at a one-year high on Oct. 19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 109.13 points, or 1.1%, to 9,972.18. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.5% to 2,154.47.

The S&P 500 opened the session trading at almost 21 times the reported operating earnings of its companies, the highest valuation in more than five years. The index has climbed 60% from a 12-year low on March 9 as the US lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to combat the worst recession since the 1930s.

All but 20 of the 138 companies in the S&P 500 that reported third-quarter results this week beat the average analyst estimate, including Apple Inc., Caterpillar Inc. and Morgan Stanley, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Still, per-share profits were down 19% from the year-earlier period for the group, adding to a record eight straight quarters of earnings declines. Analysts expect profits to rise in the fourth quarter.

Since the start of the third-quarter earnings season, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 that released results have reported better-than-estimated profits, according to Bloomberg data. There's not a higher proportion in data going back to 1993.

Stocks may rise further as long as the Federal Reserve continues to signal it intends to keep interest rates low, seems to be the rationale for traders at the moment (rightly or wrongly). Articles in the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal Friday said central bank officials have begun to consider how and when to prepare investors for higher rates. The Fed's benchmark lending rate has been at a record low range of 0 to 0.25% since December.

Exxon, the largest oil producer, slumped 1.2% to $73.57. Schlumberger, the biggest oilfield-services company, sank 5% to $65.20.

Crude for December delivery fell 69 cents to $80.50 a barrel in New York Mercantile Exchange trading. Futures are up 80% this year and touched a one-year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21.

The Dollar strengthened against the Yen to the strongest level in a month and gained versus most actively traded currencies on speculation the Fed will increase interest rates sooner than forecast.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe lost 6.5% to $79.12, leading transportation companies in the S&P 500 to a 3.8% decline. The largest US railroad forecast fourth-quarter profit of $1.20 a share at most, trailing the average analyst estimate of $1.36 in a Bloomberg survey.

Union Pacific Corp., the second-largest US railroad by revenue, Thursday said it won't have more than "slightly" increased freight volume next year. Its shares slumped 5.6% to $57.73.

Microsoft climbed 5.4% to $28.02, a 14-month high. The world's largest software maker posted a smaller drop in profit than analysts estimated after slashing costs to make up for falling sales.

Amazon.com soared 27%, the most in more than two years, to a record $118.49 for the biggest gain in the S&P 500. Third-quarter net income increased 69% after discounts and the Kindle electronic book reader fueled sales.

MEMC Electronic Materials dropped the most in the S&P 500, falling 10% to $13.87. The maker of silicon wafers for solar modules and semiconductors posted a greater-than- estimated third-quarter loss on costs to close two plants in Texas and Missouri and repair equipment at another.

CA Inc. slid 9.6% to $21.61. The second-largest maker of software for mainframe computers said bookings tumbled 37% from a year earlier in the fiscal second quarter.

Broadcom lost 7.3% to $28.50. The maker of semiconductors for wireless headsets and television set-top boxes said sales will be little changed in the fourth quarter from the previous period. 
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks declined, erasing their weekly advance, as disappointing earnings from Mobistar SA dragged down telecommunications shares, lower oil weighed on energy producers and the UK economy unexpectedly contracted.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index sank 0.5% to 244.89, erasing a gain of as much as 1.4% in afternoon trading as US equities slid. Europe's gauge has soared 55% since March 9, pushing valuations on the index to more than 50 times reported earnings, as the German and French economies unexpectedly grew in the second quarter and the Federal Reserve held interest rates near zero to unlock credit markets.

National benchmark indexes fell in 13 of the 18 western European markets. Germany's DAX lost 0.4%, while France's CAC 40 slipped 0.3%.

The Stoxx 600 advanced in morning trading as raw-material producers climbed with metals. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, gained 2% to 1,832 pence and Rio Tinto, the third biggest, added 2.2% to 3,000.5 pence. Copper, nickel and tin rose on the London Metal Exchange.

GERMANY

German stocks dropped, wiping out their weekly gain, as declines in Infineon Technologies AG and Deutsche Telekom AG helped offset a report that showed business confidence climbed to a 13-month high in October.

Infineon, Europe's second-largest maker of semiconductors, and Deutsche Telekom AG, the region's biggest phone company, retreated more than 1%. Deutsche Lufthansa AG led rising shares, climbing 1.7%.

The benchmark DAX Index slipped 0.4% to 5,740.25, for a weekly decline of 0.1%. A seven-month rally has left the measure valued at more than 46 times its companies' reported earnings, near the highest level since 2003. The broader HDAX Index decreased 0.3% Friday.

The Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 91.9, the highest reading since September 2008. Economists expected a gain to 92.

Infineon dropped 2.4% to 3.48 Euros, while Deutsche Telekom fell 1.2% to 9.57 Euros. Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, slid 1.3% to 110.54 Euros.

Stocks erased earlier gains even after a report showed sales of existing US homes climbed in September to the highest level in more than two years. UK gross domestic product unexpectedly dropped in the third quarter as enduring slumps in services, manufacturing and construction kept the economy mired in its longest recession on record.

Lufthansa, Europe's second-largest airline, climbed 1.7% to 11.60 Euros as the company said it would exercise its right to buy out remaining shares in Austrian Airlines AG at an 88% discount.

MAN SE, the region's third-biggest truckmaker, rose 1.1% to 58.85 Euros, ending three days of declines. UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking lifted its share-price forecast 18% to 60 Euros. Jenoptik AG added 1.1% to 3.84 Euros, the first gain this week. The German maker of optical equipment was rated "buy" in resumed coverage at WestLB AG, which said the company "is tackling the cost issue and high financial gearing with financial and operating restructuring." The brokerage has a price estimate of 5.50 Euros on the shares.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index slipped 12.61, or 0.3%, to 3,808.24 in Paris, for a 0.5% loss this week. The SBF 120 Index also slipped 0.3% Friday.

Alcatel-Lucent added 5 cents, or 1.8%, to 3.06 Euros after three days of losses. The world's largest supplier of fixed-line phone networks was raised to "buy" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said "we expect major additional cost cutting combined with a recovery in volumes to drive margins back to mid/high single digits."

BNP Paribas climbed 1.15 Euros, or 2.1%, to 56.25, gaining for a third day this week. France's largest bank said investor demand for its 4.3 billion-Euro ($6.46 billion) share sale was 2.5 times more than the number of shares on offer. The settlement and listing of the new shares will happen on Oct. 26.

Separately, the company was raised to "buy" from "neutral" at UBS AG, which cited "ongoing robust cashflow generation."

Havas sank 20 cents, or 7%, to 2.79 Euros, dropping for a third day. The owner of the Euro RSCG Worldwide advertising agency said nine-month revenue fell 8.2% to 1.03 billion Euros.

PSA Peugeot Citroen added 33 cents, or 1.4%, to 23.90 Euros, gaining for a second day. Europe's second- largest carmaker raised its European auto-market forecast for 2009 and said it will update its own full-year profit guidance next month.

Renault, France's second-biggest carmaker, climbed 57 cents, or 1.7%, to 35.05 Euros after two days of losses.

Cie. de Saint-Gobain rallied 54 cents, or 1.5%, to 36.41, for a second gain this week. Europe's biggest supplier of building materials confirmed its goals for operating income and recurring net income to be higher in the second half than in the first, helped by an accelerating expense-reduction program and lower costs for raw materials. The company said third-quarter sales fell 14%.

BELGIUM

The Bel 20 in Brussels closed the week at 2,547.34, down 0.56% on the day.

Mobistar, Belgium's second-biggest mobile-phone company, fell the most in eight months after reporting earnings that missed analysts' estimates and losing subscribers for the first time. Repsol YPF SA, Spain's largest oil company, slipped 1.3% as oil dropped for a second day.

Mobistar slid 4.7% to 46.53 Euros. Third-quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization declined 5.3% to 142.4 million Euros ($214 million), missing the 146.1 million-Euro average of 11 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Mobistar lost 53,400 customers in the three months through September and reported revenue declined following regulatory cuts in roaming charges as of July 1.

A gauge of telecommunications shares including Mobistar lost 1.7% for the biggest drop among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600.

Belgian display and visual systems maker Barco made a surprise operating loss in the third quarter due to inventory writedowns and declined to repeat its full-year outlook, sending its shares down sharply on Wednesday.

Barco, whose displays are used as scoreboards for sports stadiums, medical imaging systems and at pop concerts, reported a loss before interest and tax (EBIT) of 3.3 million Euros ($4.94 million) for the three months to end-September.

Analysts had been expecting the company to break even, pulling back from an operating loss a year ago.

Chief Executive Eric Van Zele told a news conference the fourth quarter should be "solid", with growth in digital cinema. He said the company is in line to meet a projector shipment target of 100 million Euros.

However, conditions were weak for LED billboards and large display panels, a core segment. Van Zele could not say for how much longer Barco would have write down billboard inventory.

"I don't think it would get better very soon," Van Zele said of the billboard market, in which it competes with firms such as Element Labs. "We have lost market segments, but in reality, there is no demand for it."

The group said it would continue to implement measures to restore profitability and establish healthy levels of working capital, even if this pushed the operating result below its previous forecast of breakeven for the full year.

Barco's shares fell as much 9.7% to a three-month low of 25.91 Euros after the news on Wednesday, making it the weakest on Euronext Brussels.

Belgium's UCB said its revenue over nine months fell due to generic competition for epilepsy medication Keppra in the US, which offset European growth for Keppra, growth of allergy rhinitis drug Xyzal in the US and allergy drug Zyrtec in Japan.

UCB said prescription data for Cimzia were promising, as it had a 20% share for treating Crohn's disease and 2.9% for rheumatoid arthritis.

It still sees a profit above 2008's 550 million Euros on sales between 3.1 billion and 3.3 billion Euros.

Shares in Belgian semiconductor specialist Melexis rose 2.9% after the company posted better-than-expected third quarter results, raised its 2009 sales forecast and and says it expects 25% growth in 2010.

Melexis shares outperformed the Euronext Belgian midcap index.

THE NETHERLANDS

Amsterdam's AEX finished Friday's trading session at 320.14, a drop of 0.17%.

Dutch insurance company Delta Lloyd NV, a unit of UK insurer Aviva, may issue new shares to finance acquisitions if the buys will boost earnings per share, Chief Executive Niek Hoek said Monday.

An issue of 10% of outstanding shares is possible without shareholder approval, Hoek told reporters at a press conference.

Earlier Monday, Aviva said it plans to raise a gross sum of about Eur1.2 billion by floating 42% of Delta Lloyd.

Delta Lloyd's Niek Hoek said the flotation isn't driven by the consolidation in the Dutch insurance sector. "The base case is that Delta Lloyd is an attractive option for investors in its current state", he said.

Aviva will offer institutional and retail investors 42% of Delta Lloyd, or around 63.5 million ordinary shares at Eur15.50-Eur19 each, with an over-allotment option of up to 6.35 million more.

Delta Lloyd shares are expected to start trading in Amsterdam on the Euronext exchange Nov. 3.

Dutch telecom company Royal KPN  said Tuessday that it has extended its cash tender offer to acquire all the outstanding shares of common stock of US-based iBasis that are not held by KPN.

A Dutch court on Wednesday ruled that the Finance Ministry did not mislead investors on the nationalisation of Belgian-Dutch financial group Fortis in 16 cases brought by shareholders.

In late September 2008, the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg announced the partial nationalisation of Fortis operations in their respective countries.

Five days later, the plan fell apart and the Dutch government nationalised all of Fortis's local operations for 16.8 billion Euros.

The plaintiffs had claimed the late-September communications about the partial nationalisation were misleading in that they encouraged investors to buy shares when the government allegedly knew the partial takeover would not succeed.

However, the court ruled that the government intended to save Fortis with the partial nationalisation and believed that it could, and therefore did not mislead investors.

It also said that the state was not obligated to immediately inform investors once it knew that partial nationalisation would not be enough, given the potential consequences for the rest of the banking system if it did tell them.

The government is still embroiled in a much larger case in Amsterdam over the collapse of Fortis.

SWITZERLAND

In Zurich, the SMI rounded out the week on 6,378.06, a decline of 0.43% for the session.

Credit Suisse Group Thursday matched buoyant third-quarter results from its healthiest US rivals as earnings from its investment banking business helped push it to a larger-than-expected net profit, though analysts cautioned that blowout profits may be coming to an end.

The Zurich-based bank said net profit for the three months was 2.4 billion Swiss francs ($2.38 billion) compared with a loss of CHF1.3 billion in the year-earlier period. Analysts had forecast net profit of CHF1.72 billion.

As an outlook, Credit Suisse said it is confident of its position among competitors and is prepared for several possible scenarios.

"If markets remain constructive, we expect to be able to maintain our momentum. Even if markets become more difficult, we believe that Credit Suisse is positioned to perform well," Chief Executive Brady Dougan said in a statement.

The investment bank swung to a CHF1.75 billion pretax profit - more than twice the private bank's figure. A year earlier, the investment bank posted a pretax loss CHF3.21 billion.

In particular, global interest-rate products, foreign-exchange trading, prime brokerage, cash equities leveraged buyout loans and trading in US residential mortgage securities and derivatives made a strong showing in the recent quarter.

However, Credit Suisse shares fell, partly on concerns that the investment bank cannot sustain its profitability, as once-ailing competitors such as Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Citigroup and UBS once again gear up their securities operations.

Evidence of a lack of sustainable investment-bank profits might already be surfacing. The unit's revenue fell 16% from the second quarter, and Bernstein Research said that profits only held up because loan-loss provisions were extremely low and because Credit Suisse skimped on bonus payouts. The brokerage rates Credit Suisse at underperform with a CHF45 target price.

Swiss drugmaker Novartis said sales would grow faster than expected this year, even without a shot in the arm of up to $700 million from its H1N1 swine flu pandemic vaccine.

Third-quarter net profit at Novartis, which joined other major drugmakers in reporting strong trading conditions, nudged up 1% to $2.1 billion, in line with forecasts, the firm said on Thursday.

Novartis, which faces loss of exclusivity on its top-selling blood pressure drug Diovan in 2012, was hit by one-off charges of $189 million from rival Roche's acquisition of Genentech and discontinuing of a drug by Alcon.

It has a 33% stake in Roche and holds 25% of eye care company Alcon. It made no comment on an agreement with Nestle to acquire a majority of Alcon.

Nestlé SA said Thursday the strong Swiss franc triggered a 2.2% drop in sales for the first nine months of the year, but added that volumes grew in the third quarter and that it is accelerating its 25 billion franc ($24.8 billion) share-buyback program.

Sales at the world's largest food and beverages company fell to 79.55 billion Swiss francs from 81.36 billion francs a year earlier. The rise in value of the franc against the Dollar, the Euro, and the Pound -- currencies in which Nestlé generates a large chunk of its sales -- offset improved organic growth, a closely followed performance measure comprising changes in selling prices and volumes. Organic growth accelerated to 3.6% for the first nine months, compared with 3.5% for the first half and 3.8% in the first quarter.

Nestlé said it sees even higher organic growth for the full year but didn't give a specific growth target. It also still expects to improve margins for operating profit when stripping out currency fluctuations. In August, the company dropped a previous forecast for organic growth "at least approaching 5%" for 2009, indicating it was comfortable with the market's 4% organic-growth estimate.

In addition, Nestlé said it has decided to spend 7 billion francs to buy back shares this year, instead of the 4 billion francs it had originally planned. This will allow it to complete its 25 billion franc buyback program earlier than planned.

The planned sale of its remaining 52% stake in US-based eye healthcare company Alcon to Novartis AG will trigger a gain of up to $28 billion next year, Nestlé said, driving speculation that it would soon announce a new buyback program, a special dividend, or an acquisition.

Nestlé said it hasn't decided what to do with the Alcon proceeds. The company can sell its Alcon shares at the market price plus a premium of 20.5% from Jan. 1, and Novartis has a right to buy Alcon at $181 a share.

Nestlé had been touted as a possible rival bidder for UK confectioner Cadbury PLC, which is being pursued by Kraft Foods Inc. It didn't comment on that possibility, but management has previously said it was focused on organic growth and smaller acquisitions.

The company didn't break out third-quarter results nor did it release net profit.

AUSTRIA

Vienna's ATX Exchange closed out a volatile week Friday at 2,681.19, up 0.41%.

Austrian developer Immofinanz is likely to sell shares in an upcoming rights issue at a discount, breaking with the habit of pricing share sales close to market prices, the company's chief executive said on Thursday.

Eduard Zehetner, a turnaround specialist who helped rescue Immofinanz from the brink of insolvency this year, also said he believed the deal could be placed rather quickly if markets stayed in the shape they were in now.

Immofinanz earlier this month got shareholder approval to sell 229.5 million new shares in a rights issue, which would be worth 659 million Euros ($987 million) at Thursday's closing price of 2.87 Euros, down 8% on the day.

"It is more likely that the capital increase will be discounted than at the market level," Zehetner told retail investors at a trade fair in Vienna. "If the market sentiment doesn't change, the capital increase will be sold quickly."

Immofinanz and its emerging European arm Immoeast raised billions of Euros during the 2004-2008 boom for Austrian property shares - pricing the deals very close to, and sometimes above the level at which they were traded at the time.

But their fortunes changed when the real estate bubble burst in eastern Europe, leveraged plays got out of fashion, and corporate governance issues emerged at the two companies.

Zehetner has said in the past that by late 2008, Immofinanz was facing a life-threatening liquidity squeeze.

Austrian oil and gas group OMV raised hopes for a better third-quarter result on Tuesday when it said refinery margins declined less sharply than feared, oil hedges turned positive and affiliates performed.

Shares in the group rose as much as 3.5% to 30.98 Euros, the highest level in more than four months, as some analysts said they may have to raise 2009 estimates. The DJ Stoxx Oil and Gas index declined 0.3%.

Low distillate spreads and the higher oil price still hit refining margins in the quarter to September, when OMV's reference refining margin declined to $1.30 per barrel, down by another 20% on the quarter.

Higher crude prices in the quarter increased the cost of OMV's own consumption in refineries, especially at Romanian arm Petrom SNPP.BX, OMV said in its quarterly trading update.

However, some analysts said they had expected an even sharper decline based on even lower margin indications from other refiners, including France's Total.

SWEDEN

Stockholm's OMX ended the Friday session on 932.29, a gain of 0.52% for the day.

Volvo AB soared 4.9% to 69.75 kronor. The world's second-largest truckmaker had a net loss of 2.92 billion kronor ($430 million), less than the loss of 3.4 billion kronor average estimated by nine analysts.

Ericsson, the world's largest maker of wireless phone networks, posted a steeper-than- expected 71% drop in third-quarter profit, as clients slashed spending and Chinese competition drove down prices.

The company had its biggest drop in three months in Stockholm trading after saying net income fell to 810 million kronor ($118 million) from 2.84 billion kronor, a year earlier, and sales slid 5.6% to 46.4 billion. Analysts expected profit of 1.97 billion kronor on sales of 50.4 billion kronor.

Chief Executive Officer Carl-Henric Svanberg said the market is "tougher" and credit in some emerging economies is still tight. Ericsson is fighting a slide in sales of telecommunications equipment as carriers such as TeliaSonera AB pare investments and competitors such as China's Huawei Technologies Co. are able to sell network gear at lower prices.

Network-equipment suppliers have suffered as the economic slump cut demand at phone operators, who capped or postponed spending. Nokia Oyj last week said it wrote down the value of its joint venture Nokia Siemens Networks, which competes with Ericsson, by almost a billion Euros, citing a deteriorated outlook for the business.

Ericsson's 32% market share in the second quarter was unchanged from a year earlier. Nokia Siemens remained the second-largest vendor with a 20% share, while third-place Huawei gained to 17%.

Ericsson took a 2.7 billion-kronor restructuring charge in the quarter for a cost-cutting program aimed at saving 10 billion kronor from the second half of 2010. Ericsson said it is running ahead of schedule on that plan.

Equipment sales fell 8%, while services sales gained 9%, the company said.

Tele2 Wednesday said it expects to this year launch operations in more regions than previously expected in its key growth market Russia, as it posted rising third-quarter net profit after the previous year's result was hit by charges.

The Swedish telecom operator said it now expects to launch operations in 14 out of 20 new license regions in Russia in 2009, compared with previous expectations for 12 regions.

Tele2, which first started operations in Russia in 2003, has expanded its presence in the country over the past few years as it regards it a major driver of future growth.

Russia has around 80 license regions and Tele2 is Friday covering roughly half of these, so there is good scope for further expansion, Chief Executive Harri Koponen told Dow Jones Newswires on Wednesday.

Tele2 aims to spread its presence into regions with high population density and concentration of industries, Koponen said, but added that the future roll-out rate is hard to predict because his company will have to win licenses or make acquisitions in order to expand.

The operator, which has around 25 million customers in markets including Sweden, Russia and the Baltics, on its capital markets day in September said it expected its customer base in Russia to reach 18 million-19 million by the end of 2011 as it enters new regions.

The company said Wednesday it had a total customer intake of 1.1 million customers in Russia during the third quarter.

Swedish manufacturing company Atlas Copco Thursday reported a 29% fall in third quarter net profit due to a drop in demand worldwide for most of its products but said it expects demand in some emerging markets to pick up.

"Overall demand is expected to stay around the current level. The demand in some emerging markets, including China and India, is expected to gradually improve," Ronnie Leten, President and Chief Executive said in a statement.

The company's outlook echoed comments of competitors Alfa Laval, and SKF earlier this week, that they expect demand to remain stable, but at the current low levels.

Atlas Copco's products range from compressed air and gas equipment to construction and mining equipment and industrial tools and assembly systems. It operates in more than 160 markets and has its own sales operations in about 80 countries.

Net profit fell to 1.72 billion Swedish kronor in the three months to end-September from SEK2.42 billion in the same period a year earlier. This was clearly higher then a poll among 10 analysts, which had forecast a net profit of SEK1.3 billion.

DENMARK

In Copenhagen the OMX finished the day at 338.97, a gain of 0.98% and Europe's best bourse of the day.

Danish biopharma company NEuroSearch is seeking up to 443 million Danish crowns ($89 million) through a share issue to boost its transformation into a pharmaceuticals group, the company said on Monday.

The announcement knocked 14.5% off the value of NEuroSearch stock, which traded down 21.50 crowns at 127.0 at 1022 GMT against a 0.6% gain in the DJ Stoxx European healthcare sector index .SXDP.

NEuroSearch said it would offer existing shareholders up to 7.39 million new shares at 60 crowns per share, which it said would raise approximately 443 million crowns if the offering was fully subscribed.

Shareholders will be allocated three pre-emptive rights for each share held and seven rights will entitle owners to subscribe for one new share, NEuroSearch said.

The aim of the issue is to secure funding for research and development activities, general corporate purposes and to strengthen the company's negotiating position in relation to licence partners, NEuroSearch said.

Chief Executive Flemming Pedersen told Reuters the transaction was a positive move not a rescue measure and added that the issue would provide cash to run the business up to the middle of 2012 -- a year longer than without it.

He said in the statement that NEuroSearch aimed to transform itself from a research and development firm into a fully integrated pharmaceuticals company specialised on central nervous system disorders.

Danske Equities maintained its "accumulate" stance on Danish luxury furniture retailer BoConcept Holding A/S and said it raised the share price target, after BoConcept's recently completed share offering which raised DKK37m.

The improved balance sheet reduces the risk in the share, according to the brokerage, which expects the number of BoConcept stores and same-store sales to start rising gradually from 2010/2011.

NORWAY

Norway's OBX Exchange ended the week on 310.13, a dip of 0.58% for Friday's session.

Wednesday, the Statistics Norway announced that the international reserves stood at NOK 282.8 billion in September, up from NOK 270.9 billion in the previous month. A year ago, the official reserve assets were NOK 261.7 billion.

But, other foreign currency assets amounted to NOK 5.85 billion in September, down from NOK 6.55 billion in August.

Approximately one% of all the world's shares are now on Norwegian hands. The Norwegian Pension Fund is Europe's largest fund. Its size increases year by year, fueled by revenue from Norway's oil and gas industry.

Currently, the fund is worth approximately 2600 billion NOK - almost 500 billion USD. More than 8000 companies around the world are partly owned by the Norwegian people.

Some of these companies do not adhere to the fund's strict ethical guidelines apparently and this week the fund has been under the microscope.

In Guatemala, the Canadian company Goldcorp is accused of poisoning the Maya people who live in the vicinity of a large gold mine. Approximately one% of the revenue from the mine is left in Guatemala - the rest goes to Goldcorp and its owners. The Norwegian Pension Fund owns shares worth 611 million NOK (110 million USD) in Goldcorp.

In Western Sahara, phosphate is exported from an area defined by the UN as a «non-self-governing territory». Norway's government has discouraged Norwegian companies from investing in Western Sahara, yet the Pension Fund ownes shares in seven international companies that do.

In Canada, the Pension Fund invests heavily in companies that extract oil from oil sand. This process is very damaging for the environment, and the Norwegian government has encouraged Norwegian companies to stay away from this kind of oil production.

On the West Bank, the Norwegian Pension Fund has invested in 31 companies that are directly or indirectly involved in illegal settlements, according to whoprofits.org. The shares of another company, Elbit Systems, were sold because the company is involved in building the separation barrier on the West Bank. If building the barrier is in itself illegal, it follows that so are the settlements, roads and factories serving the occupation., writes Amira Hass in an article in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz

Norway's government discourages investments in Burma (Myanmar), yet the Norwegian Pension Fund invests several billion Dollars in the oil companies Total and Chevron, which are involved in developing the gas field Yadana off the country's Western coast.

Since when has Norway had such close scrutiny of its fund and more importantly, why now I ask myself? Oil concerns?

Norway's largest bank, DnB NOR, beat forecasts for third quarter profits thanks to a strong home market and said business prospects were improving, though the outlook for the Baltics and its shipping sector clients remained hazy.

DnB NOR shares rose as much as 3% in a falling market before shedding their gains. The stock has enjoyed a months-long rally driven in part by the relative strength of Norway's oil-fuelled economy.

The results follow above-consensus earnings at Swedish peer SEB on Wednesday, reinforcing views that the rate of bad loan growth in the crisis-hit Baltics is slowing, benefiting a swathe of Nordic lenders with exposure to the region.

DnB NOR's pretax profit fell to 2.76 billion crowns ($493.4 million) in July through September from 3.65 billion a year ago, it said on Thursday, beating all 13 predictions in a Reuters poll of analysts whose average forecast was 1.88 billion.

DnB NOR Chief Executive Rune Bjerke told reporters he hoped the lender's losses in the Baltics had peaked, though the outlook there remained one of "great uncertainty".

"There is a positive underlying trend, especially in retail banking and (DnB NOR's insurance unit) Vital," Bjerke said.

Last month DnB NOR announced a 14 billion crown rights issue, backed by its leading shareholders including the Norwegian government, to replenish funds eroded by exposure to recession-hit economies, including the Baltics.

The merger of Norwegian oil minnow Det norske oljeselskap with sector player Aker Exploration was approved on Monday by the extraordinary general meetings (EGMs) in both companies.

The partners announced merger plans in the summer of 2009.

The new entity will retain the name Det norske oljeselskap ASA and Norwegian industrial group Aker ASA will be the main owner with around 40% of the shares.  At the EGM in Det norske, a total 41.441 million shares voted in favour of the transaction, corresponding to 94.34% of the votes. A total 69.4% of the outstanding shares were represented at the EGM.

Atea ASA, the largest supplier of IT infrastructure products and services in the Nordic and Baltic region, Friday announced third quarter 2009 results with a revenue of MNOK 2,890.2 and EBITDA of MNOK 107.6 up 10% from last year and an EBITDA margin of 3.7%.

In the first three quarters of 2009 Atea generated revenue of MNOK 10,179.5 and a revenue growth of 1.2%. EBITDA for the first three quarters ended at MNOK 315.8 and cash flow from operations increased to MNOK 192.9 from MNOK 190.1 last year.

FINLAND

The OMX in Helsinki closed off Friday at 6,167.70, down 0.33% for the day.

Finnish steelmaker Rautaruukki reported a wider than expected third-quarter loss due to weak demand in the downturn and said the current quarter could also end in the red, sending its shares lower on Thursday.

"The company estimates there will be a marked improvement in the result before taxes for the fourth quarter, compared to the third quarter, but that the result might remain slightly negative," Rautaruukki said.

The company tumbled to a July-September operating loss of 54 million Euros ($81 million) from a 197 million profit a year ago. A 25 million Euros loss was forecast in a Reuters poll.

Net sales more the halved to 485 million Euros, also missing the poll forecast.

Finnish stainless steel maker Outokumpu said it saw no signs of an upturn in demand for the metal after third quarter sales and profits slumped, but it stuck to its goal of breaking even at year-end.

"Stainless steel markets have not seen any major improvement. Underlying demand continues to be weak and the purchasing behaviour of steel distributors is very much driven by short-term developments in the nickel price," Outokumpu Chief Executive Juha Rantanen said in a statement.

Outokumpu slumped to a July-September loss of 65 million Euros ($97.1 million), flat year-on-year but missing the mean estimate of a loss of 48 million in a Reuters poll. Sales tumbled 54% year-on-year to 587 million Euros, missing all estimates in the poll where the average estimate was for 702 million.

But it stuck to its previous outlook of a break-even towards the end of the year on the back of improved prices, higher delivery volumes and cost controls, and added it expected its underlying result to improve in the fourth quarter from the third.

Top European paper and board maker Stora Enso reported better than forecast underlying third-quarter earnings on Thursday thanks to cost cutting, but said its market outlook remained gloomy.

"Looking forward, the markets remain generally weak and the structural overcapacity in Europe continues to put pressure on prices in several product ranges," chief executive Jouko Karvinen said in a statement.

"That, combined with unclear macroeconomic and raw material cost development trends, makes visibility poor and quarter-by-quarter predictions difficult," he said.

Stora's underlying July-September operating profit rose to 131.5 million Euros ($196 million) in the third quarter from 125.5 million a year earlier, beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll of 16 analysts.

Including a steep hit of 655 million Euros in the quarter, mostly from one-time charges for planned mill closures and lay-offs in Finland, Stora notched a loss of 519.7 million Euros for the three months.

Finnish cargo handling equipment maker Cargotec posted a smaller-than-expected drop in underlying third-quarter earnings thanks to cost cuts, and stuck to its outlook for a tough 2009.

The group repeated that 2009 sales are expected to fall by some 25% year-on-year and said on Thursday it would make an operating loss after booking restructuring costs of some 70 million Euros ($104.5 million) for the year.

Cargotec's underlying July-September operating profit slumped 77% from a year ago to 11.6 million Euros, ahead of expectations of 10 million in a Reuters poll.

Sales fell 34% to 559 million, below all forecasts in the poll.

Cargotec has cut hundreds of jobs in 2009 as it grapples with weak demand and said on Thursday it would slash an additional 300 jobs in the Finnish city of Tampere.

SPAIN

Madrid's IBEX rounded out the week by ending at 11,739.80, off 0.75% for the day.

Shares in Spain's Criteria and Agbar have been suspended, stock market regulator CNMV said on Thursday.

The suspension follows news of Criteria's sale of its Agbar stake to Suez Environment, ahead of a full buyout by the French group.

Spain's Telefonica has carried out a planned share swap with China's Unicom, with each company buying $1 billion of the other's shares, it said on Wednesday.

Under the deal, announced in early September, Telefonica's stake in Unicom rises to 8.06% from 5.38%, Telefonica said.

Spain's biggest bank Santander said it planned to maintain its policy of paying half its net profit in dividends in 2010, taking the wind out of its share price after its chief executive had raised hopes of more.

CEO Alfredo Saenz said in an interview in Wednesday's Financial Times that the bank could use a surplus of core capital to pay a special dividend next year.

Santander later said it considered it appropriate to have a strong core capital base that reflects the strength of its balance sheet.

Gas Natural SDG, Spain's largest natural gas company, agreed to sell its 64% stake in Empresa de Energia del Pacifico SA of Colombia for $1.1 billion as part of a plan to cut debt.

Colinversiones, Inversiones Argos and Banca de Inversion Bancolombia will buy the stake in the Colombian power company by making a bid for 66.1% of EPSA's stock at 9,164.84 Colombian pesos ($4.96) a share, Barcelona-based Gas Natural said on Saturday in a regulatory filing. Gas Natural has agreed to accept this offer and predicted the transaction will complete before year-end.

Gas Natural this year finished the acquisition of Union Fenosa SA to add power generation plants and utility clients as it faces increased competition in its domestic gas market. The natural gas supplier is now trying to cut debt following the purchase of that Spanish utility and has targeted asset sales of 3 billion Euros ($4.5 billion).

PORTUGAL

The Lisbon PSI General finished the session Friday on 2,933.26, down 0.43%.

Portuguese energy company Energias de Portugal, or EDP, said Tuesday that its OPTEP SGPS SA unit has sold 26.98 million shares in Sonaecom SGPS, at a price of Eur1.98 a share.

In total, the EDP unit sold the shares for Eur53.4 million.

Following this disposal, EDP no longer has any Sonaecom shares, EDP said in a filing to Portugal's stock market regulator.

Banco BPI, Portugal's third-largest listed bank, on Thursday posted a 64% rise in its third-quarter net profit mostly due to year-ago market losses on some assets, but its margins shrank in a weak economy.

It said net profit rose to 41.6 million Euros ($62.28 million) -- slightly exceeding the market's consensus of 37 million Euros.

Last year, the bank's net profit was affected by losses booked on its stake in rival Millennium bcp. The stake has since been sold. BPI said that, when adjusted to exclude extraordinary items like the Millennium stake, year-ago profit would have totalled 44.9 million Euros, being 7% above last quarter's.

The bank's net interest income -- the difference between interest paid on deposits and interest charged for loans -- fell 17% to 138 million Euros from the same time of last year, compared to 147 million Euros expected on average by analysts.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index fell for a fourth day, dropping 392.85, or 1.7%, to 23,420.56 at in Milan.

Edison, Italy's second-biggest utility said its joint venture Elpedison Power in Greece is fully operational. The stock fell 0.6 cents, or 0.5%, to 1.1 Euros.

Fiat: Italy will wait until next month for the release of new auto sales numbers and Fiat's industrial plan before renewing car trade-in incentives for next year, Industry Minister Claudio Scajola said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Rome. "We will act to extend the incentives, maybe defining in advance the way we exit from the incentive program so we don't distort the market," he said.

Separately, analysts at Morgan Stanley increased their target price on Fiat shares to 18 Euros from 16.8 Euros. The stock climbed 19 cents, or 1.8%, to 11.04 Euros.

RCS MediaGroup: Promotora de Informaciones SA doesn't expect a recovery in the Spanish ad market in 2010, Chief Executive Juan Luis Cebrian said on a conference call Thursday. RCS, the publisher of Italy's largest daily newspaper, which also has businesses in Spain, fell 2.2 cents, or 1.6%, to 1.33 Euros.

STMicroelectronics, Europe's largest chipmaker fell for a third day after being cut to "sell" from "hold" at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc Thursday. The stock fell 19 cents, or 3.1%, to 5.91 Euros.

Tiscali: Rights to buy new shares of the Italian Internet company stop trading. The stock plunged 29.05 cents, or 40%, to 43 cents.

UniCredit, Italy's largest bank, dropped 13 cents, or 5%, to 2.49 Euros, the biggest one-day drop in fourth months. The stock also fell for a fourth straight day, closing at a one-month low. The company's Oct. 21 statement that interest margin is expected to fall and Chief Executive Officer Alessandro Profumo's comments Thursday that loan-loss provisions have peaked this year have sparked analyst estimates cuts.

Milan-based Equita Sim Thursday cut its 2010 profit estimate for UniCredit by 13%, while Intermonte cut its 2009 earnings-per-share estimate by 25%.

GREECE

Athen's Athex Composite ended the week at 2,838.13, up 0.96%.

EFG Eurobank, Greece's second largest lender, is not planning to raise funds via a rights issue, the group's deputy chief executive said on Wednesday.

"There is no reason for a rights issue," Deputy Chief Executive Nikos Karamouzis told reporters during a briefing. "This will be clear with one look at our (capital) ratios when we release results next month."

On Monday Alpha Bank was the latest Greek bank to opt for a cash call to recapitalise and pay back government funds under a liquidity support plan.

Alpha will tap the market for 986 million Euros ($1.47 billion) to retire 940 million Euros worth of preferred shares it sold the government, raising talk in the market that others may follow.

Like Eurobank, Piraeus Bank said on Monday that it is not considering a cash call as its capital adequacy is sound.

"We did a rights issue two years ago and did not use the proceeds for buyouts," Karamouzis said. "I don't see why we should be singing the same tune (with other banks)."

Eurobank earlier this year got a capital injection of 950 million Euros via the sale of preferred shares. It raised another 300 million in July via a non-dilutive hybrid bond issue, with another hybrid planned in the near future.

Karamouzis said the bank will look to exit the government's liquidity support scheme and repay the capital injection once management feels that market conditions have normalised for good, most likely some time in the second half of 2010.

Alpha Bank, Greece's third largest lender, is to hold a rights issue of 986 million Euros to buy back preferred shares sold to the state under a sector support scheme in the global crisis.

Alpha will stage a three-for-ten rights issue at 8 Euros per share, management of the private bank told the Athens bourse in a statement. Completion is due by early December, enabling a resumption of dividends banned under state support.

"The rights issue is expected to provide additional capacity for financing our customers and accelerate our efforts to establish a solid and independent funding capability at competitive terms," CEO Dimitris Mantzounis reported.

Underwriters are a syndicate of investment banks with JP Morgan as global coordinator and joint bookrunner with BofA Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Nomura and UBS.

The issue should boost the lender's core Tier 1 ratio, which stood at 9.1% at end-June, by 200 basis points, the statement said. 
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsFinancial stocks lent support to a FTSE 100 rally on Friday, with the index climbing in spite of worse-than-expected GDP data.

HSBC was among the top performers after Goldman Sachs forecast a quick turnround for the bank's US credit card business.

Credit quality looks to have peaked and HSBC Finance Corporation has been quick to tighten underwriting standards. This should allow the group to charge its bad loans against existing balance sheet provisions, the broker told clients.

With credit costs stabilising and bad loans absorbed, earnings are likely to rebound faster than the market expects, Goldman said. It repeated "buy" advice on 2011 earning forecasts that are 25% ahead of the consensus.

HSBC closed up 1.2% to 698.6p, making it the Footsie's biggest riser by index weighting.

Other financial stocks gained after the weak GDP data bolstered expectations that the UK will keep pushing emergency stimulus measures.

Lloyds Banking Group was squeezed 1.5% higher to 96¼p, helped by continued gossip about its likely fundraising.

Much of the speculation centred on Lloyds' possible use of contingent capital, a debt instrument that converts to common equity if the bank's core capital falls below a threshold. If Lloyds and the regulator could reach a compromise whereby these instruments covered its hybrid bank capital, equity holders could face much less dilution than previously feared.

Prudential led the blue-chip risers, gaining 5.2% to 633½p. The insurer was reportedly looking at raising several billion Dollars with a public offering in either Hong Kong or Shanghai.

Overall, the FTSE 100 closed 35.21 points, or 0.7%, higher at 5,242.57. That gave the index its third straight weekly gain, with a 1% advance since Monday.

Miners found support on higher metals prices and on a strategists' upgrade from Credit Suisse. Its argument hinged on China's economy growing at 9-10% until 2011, and some of its $2,300bn of foreign exchange reserves going into commodities.

Kazakhmys was up 3.4% to £12.94 and Xstrata rose 3.7% to £10.12 even after chief executive Mick Davis sold 1m shares.

Anglo American led the sector as its news on Thursday that it would sell Tarmac and other non-core assets brought "buy" advice out of brokers including Deutsche Bank. Anglo rose 4.2% to £23.80.

Broker comment also helped Vedanta Resources, up 3.2% to £23.58 after Morgan Stanley repeated an "overweight" rating.

Forecast-beating earnings from Microsoft helped lift the technology stocks. Autonomy, which has suffered this week on renewed concerns about its accounting policies, rebounded 4.6% to £14.44.

Among the fallers, BSkyB lost 1.2% to 553p even after the broadcaster posted quarterly numbers that beat consensus forecasts. The stock peaked at 593p in early trade before slipped back as investors picked through a circumspect statement that included news of tighter credit terms for returning customers.

BT Group slid 3.2% to 135¼p as pension fund concerns combined with BSkyB's reporting of solid broadband subscriber growth. "Weak broadband share leaves voice lines and core revenue exposed to sharp declines," said UBS in a preview of BT's results next month.

Mid-cap gold miner Petropavlovsk was 0.9% higher at £11.25 after it applied to list stock linked to a convertible bond. That would add about 6.5% to its market capitalisation and would put the group within reach of promotion into the blue-chips in the December review, Liberum analysts said.

Hardy Oil & Gas slumped 41.4% to 320p after the first exploration well on the D9 block in India was abandoned.

The news surprised the market because Reliance Industries had made a large gas discovery in a nearby block.

In response, Oriel Securities cut its rating on Hardy to "sell".

Sylvania Resources fell 10.6% to 61p after terminating its merger agreement with Finland's Rukki Group because the process was moving too slowly.

In spite of the news, Investec Securities reiterated its "buy" recommendation. "Our 84p target price and buy rating are based on Sylvania's pre-merger tailings reprocessing business model, so therefore our numbers remain unchanged," it said.

Centamin Egypt added 10.9% to 132p on positive feedback from an investor trip to its operations in Egypt.

Theo Fennell, the upmarket jeweller, added 22.2% to 44p. After the market closed, former Polar Capital fund manager Julian Barnett declared a raised holding of 4.25%.

Pensions consultant Mattioli Woods was 3.4% higher to 241½p after two directors each sold £1.19m of stock "in response to market demand".

Ark Therapeutics advanced 7.9% to 47¾p after the group presented trial data on its Cerepro brain cancer drug to a US conference.

KBC Peel Hunt was not impressed, saying the test had big flaws and saw little chance of European approval for the treatment.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Japan's Nikkei stock average edged up 0.2% on Friday, with construction machinery shares rising on hopes for China's economy and Kirin Holdings gaining ground on a brokerage upgrade.

But Japan Airlines fell nearly 7% after the Nikkei business daily reported some creditors have asked the struggling carrier to reduce its capital.

A source familiar with the matter also said JAL's liabilities would exceed its assets by as much as 800 billion Yen ($8.8 billion) if the carrier, Asia's largest by revenues, were liquidated.

The benchmark Nikkei gained 0.2% on the week, with investors reluctant to actively take positions ahead of Japanese corporate earnings and a raft of economic indicators both in Japan and the United States next week.

The Nikkei rose 15.82 points to 10,282.99, while the broader Topix, which is less tech-heavy, fell 0.7% to 902.03.

Japanese retail investors grew more pessimistic about domestic stocks in October on concerns about the impact of a stronger Yen on manufacturers' earnings, a Reuters survey showed on Friday.

The currency strengthened to less than 88 Yen to the Dollar earlier this month for the first time since late January, hurting the outlook for Japan's export-led economy as a strong Yen eats into the value of earnings made abroad when they are repatriated.

On Friday, the Dollar rose 0.4% against the Yen to 91.66. Many Japanese exporters have set their currency rate assumptions at 90-95 Yen for the year to March.

Shares of companies linked to China such as Hitachi Construction continued to find favour, rising on what dealers said was less a response to Thursday's economic data than it was to China's fundamental economic strength.

China's economy surged 8.9% in the third quarter, but the outcome was widely expected.

Hitachi Construction, which makes earth moving equipment, rose 3.1% to 2,335 Yen while bigger rival Komatsu climbed 1.3% to 1,852 Yen.

A broad range of so-called defensive shares rose as well, with Kirin Holdings jumping 5.5% to 1,479 Yen after Morgan Stanley lifted its rating to "overweight" from "equal-weight", saying in a client note that investors have undervalued the company's solid earnings.

JAL slipped 6.6% to 114 Yen but gained 13% on the week, erasing roughly half the losses it suffered last week.

Banks fell as well, with top lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group down 2.5% to 460 Yen, No. 3 bank Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group losing 2.2% to 3,150 Yen.

Trade was moderate on the Tokyo exchange's first section, with 2 billion shares changing hands, in line with last week's daily average.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones, 957 to 566.

SOUTH KOREA

Institutions sold a net 90.8 billion Won worth of stocks and foreign investors bought a net 213.1 billion Won worth.

Retail investors sold a net 134.8 billion Won.

Advancers led decliners 417 to 373, with 82 counters ending unchanged.

Trading volume stood at 325.8 million shares worth 4.8 trillion Won, compared with Thursday's 380.9 million shares worth 4.8 trillion Won.

The KOSPI 200 December futures index KSc1 rose 1.90 points to 215.20, while the KOSPI 200 spot index .KS200 ended up 1.48 points at 214.73.

The junior Kosdaq market .KQ11 rose 0.03% to finish at 503.91 points.

Hana Financial Group, South Korea's fourth-largest financial company, reported on Friday a 22% advance in its third quarter profit from three months earlier on a rise in lending profitability and decreased loan-loss provisions.

Lotte Shopping, South Korea's second-largest retailer, said Friday that its third-quarter earnings rose 18.6% on-year on strong performances by department and discount stores.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong stocks rose on Friday. The Hang Seng Index, the benchmark, opened 228 points higher at 22,438. After touching the intraday low of 22,407.4 points, the blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 379.21 points or 1.71% to close at 22,589.73.

Mainboard turnover rose to HK$76 billion. 

The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks the overall performance of 43 Chinese mainland state-owned enterprises on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, swelled 356.09 points or 2.75% to 13,316.02 points.

Market heavyweight HSBC Holdings, which accounts for the largest weighting for the Hang Seng Index, increased 1.63% to HK$90.35.

Good Friend International Holdings surged 19.37% to HK$1.91.

BYD Co increased 2.27% to HK$85.5 after Barclays Bank Plc bought 32.33 million shares in the auto giant for HK$2.63 billion in total or HK$78.15 per share, bringing its shareholding to 5.41% from the previous 1.33%.

Other auto stocks ended mixed. Denway Motors rose 3.23% to HK$3.83. Great Wall Motor Co Ltd swelled 4.29% to HK$8.27. Dongfeng Motor Group Co increased 6.97% to HK$9.98. Sinotruk Ltd<3808> decreased 1.13% to HK$9.66. China Motor Bus Co ended flat at HK$58.85.

Stocks of gold firms also gained. Zijin Mining Group Co increased 1.73% to HK$8.23. Zhaojin Mining Industry Co swelled 3.33% to HK$14.26. Sino Gold Mining swelled 1.03% to HK$49. Lingbao Gold ended flat at HK$2.98.

CHINA

Chinese shares rebounded Friday on higher commodity prices, ending the week up more than 4%.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index jumped 56.43 points, or 1.9%, to close at 3,107.85, and gained 4.4% for the week. The Shenzhen Composite Index for China's second exchange added 1.5% to 1,085.47.

PetroChina Ltd., Asia's largest oil and gas producer, rose 1.8% to 13.83 RMB and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. posted a gain of 2.2% to 12.19 RMB.

That followed the rise of oil prices to around $82 Dollars per barrel in Asia on expectations of a weakening Dollar.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stocks rose 0.54% on Friday following a rebound on Wall Street, with major PC vendors Asustek and Acer rising after the launch of the Windows 7 operating system boosted their sales outlook.

The main TAIEX share index closed up 41.35 points at 7,649.28, reversing a 1.21% loss in the previous session. The TAIEX wrapped up the week with a 0.84% fall.

Turnover was thin at T$117 billion ($3.6 billion), compared with Thursday's T$140 billion and the daily average of T$124 billion over the past week.

Microsoft released its much-anticipated Windows 7 operating system on Thursday, which may serve as an impetus to upgrade aging machines.

Acer Inc, the world's No. 2 PC brand and netbook pioneer Asustek jumped 0.97% and 1.22%, respectively. The computer and peripheral sub-index rose 0.53%.

Acer Chairman J.T. Wang told Reuters in an interview that the company aims to boost its revenue by more than 70% in the next three years, helped by low-cost netbook PCs amid an improving global economy.

AU Optronics, the world's No. 3 flat-panel maker and Taiwan's biggest, jumped 0.8% after booking its first profit in one year.

But analysts say AU could lose money again in the first quarter of next year after it forecast weaker panel prices for PCs and flat-screen TVs into the final quarter of 2009.

AU's smaller rival Chi Mei Optoelectronics, which is due to report its own third quarter earnings next week, rose 1.8%. The optoelectronics sub-index rose 0.7%.

Electronics parts giant Hon Hai Precision rose 2.65% to T$135.5 after Credit Suisse raised its target price on the stock to T$171, noting the company's revenue growth is expected to extend into next year.

DRAM makers rose after South Korean peer Hynix Semiconductor swung to profit after losing for eight quarters and gave a bright outlook on the sector.

Powerchip, Taiwan's top PC memory-chip maker, jumped 6.38%.

THE PHILIPPINES

Philippine share prices closed 1.53% higher Friday due to a technical rebound, dealers said.

The composite index gained 44.27 points to 2,932.99 while the all-shares index added 1.32% to 1,848.03 points.

A total of 1.03 billion shares worth P3.403 billion ($72.18 million) changed hands with 71 gainers against 32 losers. Fifty-eight other issues ended unchanged.

The local currency traded at 47.143 to the Dollar.

Top-traded Philippine Long Distance Telephone gained 1.96% to P2,600 while SM Investments Corp. rose 4.24% to P307.50.

Energy Development Corp. added 2.56% to P4 while SM Prime Holdings ended unchanged at P10.

SINGAPORE

Singapore shares closed 1.24% higher Friday as investors snapped up bargains after recent declines, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index gained 33.37 points to 2,715.34. Volume totalled 1.56 billion shares worth 1.45 billion Singapore Dollars (1.04 billion US) and there were 345 rising issues, 157 losers while 837 were even.

Banks closed higher with DBS Group Holdings up four cents to 13 Dollars, United Overseas Bank gaining 18 cents to 17.40 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp firming two cents to 7.63.

Singapore Airlines put on 28 cents to 14.08 and Singapore Telecommunications was three cents higher at 3.10.

THAILAND

The SET in Bangkok was closed for a National Holiday Friday.

Thailand's stock exchange said on Thursday it expected at least 20 initial public offerings this year, the highest level since 2005, as market volume picked up and foreign funds flowed back into the country.

Average daily stock trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) could rise to 18 billion baht ($539 million), up 13% from 15.9 billion in 2008 when the index plunged by almost half due to the global recession and political unrest.

The Thai bourse is Southeast Asia's third biggest by market value after Singapore Exchange Ltd, also Asia's second-largest listed exchange, and the non-listed Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

Despite a slide in Thai stocks of 7.2% on Oct. 14 and 15, the biggest two-day drop in a year to a six-week low, sparked by concern over the health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, foreigners remain net buyers of Thai equities this year.

So far, they have bought a net 62.4 billion baht, after selling 162 billion in 2008 and buying a net 55 billion in 2007, data compiled by Reuters shows.

MALAYSIA

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia finished on mixed note on Friday, dealers said.

They said Budget 2010, which was unveiled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak Friday, has already been discounted by market players.

Head of Inter-Pacific Research, Anthony Dass, said Budget 2010 was within the boundary of market expectation.

A dealer said strong fund buying in key heavyweights, however, helped push the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) to close at the year's high of 1,267.1, up 7.08 points, or 0.6%.

It opened 1.55 points higher at 1,261.57 in the morning, and moved between 1,260.49 and 1,269.14 throughout trading session.

Another dealer said the positive signals from the higher US market overnight, which gave regional markets a lift, also helped push FBM KLCI higher.

Strong earnings and outlook from financial companies boosted the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close 1.3% higher to 10,081.31, S&P 500 Index rose 1.1% to 1,092.91 and the Nasdaq Composite finished up 0.7% at 2,165.29.

The FBM Emas Index gained 36.87 points to 8,515.58, FBM Top 100 increased 42.55 points to 8,302.55 and FBM 70 added 27.971 points to 8,384.73.

The FBM ACE Index, however, fell 17.12 points to 4,341.87.

The Finance Index went up 54.72 points to 10,791.76, Plantation Index added 27.44 points to 6,206.49 and the Industrial Index went up 26.36 points to 2,701.68.

Losers outpaced gainers by 363 to 331 while 280 counters were unchanged and 297 untraded.

Total turnover rose to 786.978 million shares valued at RM1.184 billion from 761.112 million shares valued at RM1.162 billion Thursday.

Axiata, the most active stock, ended five sen higher at RM3.00 after moving between RM2.98 and RM3.07, with 33.716 million lots traded.

Other active stocks were Sern Kou Resources, which fell 3.5 sen to 40.5 sen, KNM was flat at 85 sen and TA Enterprise fell four sen to RM1.42.

Among heavyweights, Sime Darby rose 21 sen to RM9.07, Maybank gained three sen to RM6.95, CIMB fell 18 sen to RM12.74 and Tenaga Nasional was flat at RM8.46.

The Main Market turnover declined to 688.301 million shares valued at RM1.158 billion from 761.112 million shares valued at RM1.162 billion Thursday.

The ACE Market volume increased to 56.571 million shares worth RM10.923 million from 48.992 million shares worth RM10.691 million previously.

Turnover for warrants rose 27.470 million shares valued at RM7.278 million from 20.409 million shares valued at RM4.769 million on Thursday.

Consumer products accounted for 90.424 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 161.369 million, construction 35.241 million, trade and services 197.909 million, technology 60.412 million, infrastructure 12.066 million, finance 51.394 million, hotels 3.797 million, properties 55.923 million, plantations 17.304 million, mining 1,000, REITs 2.392, and closed/fund 70,200.

INDONESIA

Up 1.43% on the day Friday. The Jakarta Composite Index rose 34.77 points to 2,467.95.

Key gainers included coal miner Adaro, which ended up 6.6% at 1,620 rupiah and Bumi Resources, which rose 3.8% to 2,750 on bargain buying.

Car distributor Astra closed up 4.2% to 32,650 rupiah after falling more than eight% in the previous three sessions.

INDIA

A selloff in Reliance Industries, the country's most valued company, saw Indian shares erase most early gains and end marginally higher Friday.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-stock Sensitive Index rose 0.1% to finish at 16,810.81, much below the session high of 17,006.77 hit early in the day on the back of positive trade in regional markets.

During the session, the Sensex fell as low as 16,765.20.

Reliance Industries, which has a 14.1% weightage on the index, plummeted 4.0% to 2,047.30 rupees ($44) after Hardy Oil & Gas PLC said the drilling of the first of a four-well program encountered poor reservoir sands.

Hardy holds a 10% participating interest in the D9 block located in the Krishna Godavari basin on the east coast of India. Reliance Industries is the operator and holds the rest of the participating interest in the block.

Hardy added that it will abandon one well in the D9 Block. The comments damped sentiment and sparked fears that other wells in the block could also encounter similar problems.

The Sensex has lost 3.1% in the past three sessions.

Market watchers expect the Sensex to remain volatile next week, influenced by the quarterly results of large corporates, and the expiry of the current month's derivatives contract due Oct. 29.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty rose 0.2% to close at 4,997.05.

Total traded volume on the BSE fell to 51.19 billion rupees from Thursday's 57.89 billion rupees. Gainers beat decliners 1,414 to 1,327, while 110 stocks were unchanged.

Trade on the Sensex was mixed with 12 of its 30 stocks ending lower.

Engineering giant Larsen & Toubro ended down 2.3% at 1,571.35 rupees. Investors continued to sell the stock, which slipped 3.9% Thursday after India's largest engineering and construction company reported a muted net sales growth in the July-September quarter and trimming its revenue growth target for the fiscal year.

Bharat Heavy Electricals, the largest power equipment maker by sales, Friday reported a better-than-expected 39% rise in second quarter net profit to 8.58 billion rupees. But it ended down 1.6% at 2,384.30 rupees on profit-taking and as its net sales were slightly below estimates.

Technology bellwether Infosys Technologies, up 2.2% at 2,260.20 rupees, Tata Power, up 2.6% at 1,461.10 rupees, and Mahindra & Mahindra, up 2.8% at 925.55 rupees, were among other gainers that helped the index end higher.

AUSTRALIA

Australian stocks advanced 1% on Friday to near a one-year closing high as solid earnings in the US reassured investors, with financial stocks gaining on hopes for positive earnings.

Conglomerate Wesfarmers surged nearly 7% after an upbeat investor briefing that analysts said showed its Coles supermarkets were finally providing tougher competition to dominant rival Woolworths.

The financial sector rose 1.5% on expectations of positive results and comments from the top banks when they report earnings next week.

Expectations are that banks will write back billions of Dollars next year that had been set aside for bad debts at the depths of the financial crisis.

Strongest among the banks were Westpac Banking Corp , up 3.0% to A$27.30, and Commonwealth Bank , up 3.1% to A$56.24. The financial sector has rallied 84% from its lows in March.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index rose 46.6 points to 4,859.4, according to latest available data, less than one point shy of a 13-month high on Oct. 15. For the week, the index gained 0.5%.

Wesfarmers jumped 6.9% to A$28.26 after reporting a 7.3% rise in first-quarter sales at Coles, while same-store sales growth beat that of Woolworths.

Woolworths fell 0.34% to A$29.31.

Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), one of the world's biggest toll-road operators, topped the most-actives list after a deal to sell a stake worth about A$342 million ($317 million) to institutional investors.

The stake of more than 10% was sold at A$1.40 each, a 9.1% discount to MIG's Thursday close, according to JP Morgan, which handled the trade.

Macquarie Infrastructure closed down A$0.11 at A$1.43, with a total of 338 million shares changing hands.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares snapped a two-day slide, led by fast-food chain Restaurant Brands, as global sentiment for equity markets improved. Stocks rallied across Asia on optimism economic recovery will pick up pace.

The NZX 50 index rose 13.23, or 0.4%, to 3214.93. In the week, the benchmark index edged up 0.2%. Within the index, 23 stocks rose, 12 fell and 15 were unchanged. Turnover was $103.9 million.

Restaurant Brands rose 4% to $1.55 and has surged 62% in the past six months. The company has lifted sales and earnings, reviving revenue growth at Pizza Hut, having written down the pizza chain a year ago.

Westpac Banking Corp. rose 2.5% to $33.50, tracking gains in lenders on the ASX after stronger earnings growth from companies on Wall Street including fastfood chain McDonald's Corp.

New Zealand Refining rose 1.9% to $5.50 as crude oil headed for its fourth week of gains. Crude has climbed to almost US$82 a barrel this week and was at US$81.65 a barrel in Singapore, based on the nearest contract.

Hallenstein Glasson rose 1.6% to $3.10 and Michael Hill International climbed 1.5% to 68 cents after Wesfarmers, Australia's second-biggest retailer, posted a 6.1% gain in same-store sales for the three months ended Sept. 27, sending its share soaring 7.3%.

Fletcher Building rose 1.2% to $8.42. The company held analyst briefings and a site visit last week, prompting some analysts to upgrade the ratings on the company and lift their forecasts.

PGG Wrightson Ltd., the nation's biggest rural services company, fell 2.9% to 68 cents and NZ Dairy Farms Uruguay dropped 2.2% to 44 cents after meat processor Silver Fern Farms reported annual profits tumbled excluding a payment from PGG Wrightson to settle their failed merger.
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesOil stole the spotlight from gold as US crude prices hit their highest levels of the year in a week when cocoa, corn, soyabeans, and wheat also rallied strongly.

US oil reached $82 a barrel on Wednesday, a high for 2009 and up 83.8% since the start of the year, fuelling concerns that rising oil prices could hinder global economic recovery.

On Friday, Nymex December West Texas Intermediate fell 69 cents to $80.50 a barrel, up 2.5% this week, while ICE December Brent lost 59 cents at $78.92 a barrel, also up 2.5% over the week. Long-dated oil prices also moved higher this week with the December 2014 WTI contract trading above $90 a barrel.

Cocoa prices reached a 30-year high with ICE December cocoa hitting $3,412 a tonne, up 4.2% this week, amid worries about the harvest that has just started in the Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer. Traders worry that disease and falling yields from ageing Ivorian cocoa trees could cause a global supply shortfall for a fourth consecutive season. Liffe March cocoa hit £2,221 a tonne on Friday, up 3.7% this week.

Sugar prices fell after an unexpectedly strong production report from Brazil where bad weather has affected this year's harvest. Over the week, ICE March sugar lost 2.6% at 23.28 cents a Pound while Liffe December white sugar also lost 2.6% at $585 a tonne.

Over the week, CBOT December corn rose 10.2% to $4.10 a bushel. CBOT November soyabeans was up 3.3% to $10.10 a bushel and CBOT December wheat gained 12.4% to $5.60 a bushel.

Gold rose 0.5% to $1,058 a troy ounce this week.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Dollar fell through $1.50 against the Euro for the first time in 14 months this week as optimism over prospects for global growth stemmed haven demand for the beleaguered US currency.

Analysts said the prospect of a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates in the US was continuing to weigh on the Dollar, encouraging investors to abandon the US currency in favour of higher returns elsewhere as investor optimism returned.

A strong start to the third-quarter corporate earnings season, particularly in the banking sector, helped to underpin investor confidence this week.

On Friday the Dollar dropped to a low of $1.5060 against the Euro, its weakest level since August 2008. Over the week, the Dollar fell 0.8% against the single currency.

The Dollar also fell 1% to SFr1.0080 against the Swiss franc on the week, lost 1% to $0.9239 against the Australian Dollar and dropped 2.1% to $0.7535 against the New Zealand Dollar.

The Dollar fell 0.2% to $1.6341 against the Pound on the week, although Sterling suffered a sharp fall on Friday after data showed that the UK economy unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter. The UK economy has now contracted for six successive quarters for the first time since records began in 1955.

Worryingly, from Sterling's perspective, is the fact that the UK may be the only major economy to have contracted in the third quarter.

Those figures raised the likelihood that the Bank of England would expand its £175bn ($286bn) quantitative easing programme after its monetary policy committee meeting on November 5.

Over the week, the Pound eased 0.6% to £0.9180 against the Euro.

The low-yielding Yen was also a victim of rising risk appetite, falling 0.9% to a one-month low of Y91.85 against the Dollar on the week and dropping 1.7% to a two-month low of Y137.79 against the Euro.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar fell 1.4% on the week to C$1.0532 against its US counterpart after the Bank of Canada said the recovery in economic activity in Canada since July could be "more than fully offset" by the currency's recent strength. This quashed speculation of any early interest rate rise from the central bank.

The Brazilian real lost ground against the Dollar, falling 0.4% to R$1.7143 on the week after Brazil's finance ministry said that it would impose a 2% tax on overseas purchases of Brazilian stocks and bonds in a bid to curb the real's recent rise.

In South Africa, the rand was quiet in the afternoon session Friday, tracking the Euro/Dollar movement.

In late trade, the rand was bid at R7.4286/$ from R7.3822/$ at its previous close. It was bid at R11.1605/€ from its previous close of R11.1090/€ and was at R12.1683/£ from R12.2828/£.

Finally, the RMB here in China ended the week at 6.82950 against the US Dollar, 11.1375 against the Pound and 10.2415 against the Euro. 
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina will probably create 2 million more jobs in urban areas this year than officials targeted, the government said, adding to evidence of an acceleration in economic growth.

Employment is "stable" and the nation will exceed the goal of 9 million additional urban jobs, Yin Chengji, a spokesman for the Human Resources and Social Security Ministry, said in an online transcript of a briefing in Beijing Friday. Urban registered unemployment was 4.3% at the end of September, compared with 4.2% at the end of 2008.

The briefing comes a day after government figures showed that China's economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year in the third quarter, as industrial production and retail sales accelerated. Policy makers may as a result begin removing monetary stimulus as soon as by the end of December in order to stem inflation and asset bubbles, analysts said.

The number of extra urban jobs was 8.5 million in the first nine months and is likely to top 11 million, matching the increase in 2008, Yin said. He added that while unemployment remains "a major issue" as the financial crisis lingers, the labor market is better than expected, in contrast with six months ago, when he was "very concerned."

Capping unemployment helps the Communist Party maintain social stability and reduces a drag on consumption as the world's third-biggest economy rebounds from its weakest growth in almost a decade. Coastal businesses have labor shortages because exports are recovering and migrant workers lack some skills, Yin said.

At the same time, China's official jobless rate understates unemployment because it doesn't include millions of migrant workers. Yin said employment was "stable" this year and he was confident next year would be the same.

The slump in global demand that sent China's exports tumbling last year added to the risk that factory closures would trigger social unrest. The government responded with a two-year $586 billion stimulus package, spanning earthquake reconstruction work, roads, railways and low-cost housing.

Fan Gang, the academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said Thursday in an interview in Toronto that the fiscal stimulus must continue for another year to allow for a "full recovery in 2011."

Thursday's gross domestic product report showed growth accelerated in the third quarter to 8.9% at an annual rate, from 7.9% in the previous three months. Overseas shipments fell by the least in 11 months in September.

On the eve of the release, the cabinet signaled that inflation concern will play a greater role in setting policy.

China's government may set a lower loan target for 2010 after new lending reached a record $1.27 trillion in the first nine months of 2009, UBS AG said. Policy makers may raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year, before the US, Japan and Euro area, according to ING Groep NV.

China may raise banks' reserve requirements, or the proportion of deposits that lenders are required to set aside as reserves, as early as the end of December, according to Lai and analysts at UBS and Credit Suisse Group AG. Currently, the ratio for the nation's biggest banks is 15.5%, down from last year's high of 17.5%.

China also halted gains by the RMB against the Dollar to help exporters.

Barclays Capital analysts said Thursday that currency appreciation may play a role in policy tightening next year as the government tries to control inflation.

Contracts based on the RMB's value in a year imply an appreciation of China's currency of 2.8%, compared with 0.5% two months ago. Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards touched 6.5440 per Dollar on Oct. 20, the highest level since August 2008.

Yin said that 4.02 million laid-off workers found jobs in the first nine months, compared with a government target of 5 million for the year. The proportion of university graduates with jobs was 74% at Sept. 1, "slightly higher" than a year earlier, the official said.

The government will broaden social-security coverage for students, migrant workers, urban residents and laid-off workers, the spokesman said. China will also study tax-cuts to encourage the hiring of people who lost their jobs, he said.

*******************************

Anyone scanning recent business headlines in China would not recognise the country where people supposedly save and never spend. In September, China Mobile's customer base crossed the half billion mark - a powerful symbol of the awesome size of the Chinese consumer market.

China has also become the biggest vehicle market in the world this year and car sales expanded an extraordinary 78% last month from a year ago. Over the National Day holiday in early October, retailers say large flat-screen TVs flew off the shelves.

Throughout the biggest external crisis to hit the Chinese economy in at least a decade, one of the most surprising features has been the apparent strength of consumer demand. The headline figure for retail sales has increased in real terms by 16.5% in the first three quarters of 2009 - at least two percentage points faster than last year before the crisis.

With Beijing insisting it wants to shift its economic model towards greater domestic demand, and with many foreign governments urging China to rely less on exports, consumer spending is central to the post-crisis fate of both the Chinese and global economies.

The buoyant retail figures raise three questions. Is the increase real? Is it sustainable? And does it reflect a genuine rebalancing of the economy away from investment and exports?

While officials trumpeted the latest jump in retail sales on Thursday, economists are sceptical of the figures. One problem is that official National Bureau of Statistics data include some government purchases, which are bound to have surged this year due to aggressive stimulus spending.

Government economists have played down the idea of booming consumer demand. A central bank report in August said urban residents' "impressions" about their incomes were at the lowest level since 1999 . Meanwhile, Xu Xianchun, a vice-commissioner of the statistics bureau, published an article saying real consumption growth was well below the headline rate.

Even if the growth rate has been exaggerated, there is plenty of evidence from specific industries of stronger consumer demand, especially in rural areas.

"Rural residents have much more income than they did when I opened this store in 2003," says Ge Zhongqiang, who runs an electronics shop in Xinba, a village in Jiangsu province. "They are spending a lot more on home appliances."

Some people doubt whether rising demand can be sustained, pointing to several one-off incentives. Rural people have been offered subsidies to buy "white goods", and taxes on small cars have been cut. JD Power, the auto consultancy, thinks the car-sale growth rate will fall sharply to 2-3% next year.

Less temporary forces are at work, however. In recent years, the government has raised spending on health and education in the countryside, and is starting to introduce rural pensions.

Urban demand, meanwhile, is being boosted as millions move into the $4,000-$6,000 income bracket and shift from spending only on essentials to being able to afford more expensive items such as cars.

Chinese officials say such consumer demand is helping to rebalance the economy away from exports. They point to the fact that the current account surplus as a proportion of gross domestic product is likely to be much lower this year.

*******************************

Chinese officials may be preparing to reduce monetary stimulus that propelled growth to 8.9% in the third quarter and led the world out of recession.

The economic expansion the government reported Thursday exceeded the 7.9% gain in the previous three months and pushed stocks lower around the world on concern the central bank may tighten monetary policy. On the eve of the release, the cabinet signaled that inflation concern will play a greater role in setting policy.

China's government may set a lower loan target for 2010 after new lending reached a record $1.27 trillion in the first nine months of 2009, UBS AG said. Policy makers may raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year, before the US, Japan and Euro area, according to ING Groep NV.

Monetary stimulus is becoming unnecessary - the risk is that this aggressive monetary expansion will spill into stocks and property, creating a bubble and making a hard landing for the economy more likely.

China may raise banks' reserve requirements, or the proportion of deposits that lenders are required to set aside as reserves, as early as the end of December, according to Lai and analysts at UBS and Credit Suisse Group AG. Currently, the ratio for the nation's biggest banks is 15.5%, down from last year's high of 17.5%.

The People's Bank of China may begin boosting rates in the first quarter of 2010, Lai said. The benchmark one-year lending rate is at a five-year low of 5.31%.

China's State Council said Oct. 21 that policy focus in coming months will need to "balance" the need to aid growth with "the need to better manage inflationary expectations." That was a shift from a statement in June that didn't mention price pressures.

Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said this month that China's "moderately loose" monetary policy, adopted to combat the impact of the global recession, was exceptional and probably unprecedented for the nation.

"Even after the Asia financial crisis, when we adopted proactive fiscal policies, we maintained a prudent monetary policy stance," Zhou said at a lecture in Beijing, referring to the 1997-1998 turmoil. "As a transitional economy with rapid growth, China's monetary policy should always lean towards relatively tight."

Besides pressing banks to lend, China has countered an 11- month slide in exports by rolling out a two-year $586 billion stimulus package and preventing the RMB from appreciating against the Dollar, to aid exporters.

Barclays Capital analysts said Thursday that currency appreciation may play a role in policy tightening next year as the government tries to control inflation.

Contracts based on the RMB's value in a year imply an appreciation of China's currency of 2.8%, compared with 0.5% two months ago. Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards touched 6.5440 per Dollar on Oct. 20, the highest level since August 2008.

Thursday's data showed industrial production climbed in September by the fastest pace in more than a year as tax cuts and subsidies spurred record vehicle sales in the nation for General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG. Retail sales recorded the biggest year-on-year increase since December, excluding seasonal distortions.

For the first nine months of 2009, the economy grew 7.7%, with domestic demand accounting for all of the advance. Consumption, including household spending, contributed 4 percentage points and investment added 7.3 percentage points. Trade shaved off 3.6 percentage points from the total.

The government may limit new lending to 7 trillion RMB for all of 2010, compared with 8.67 trillion RMB already this year.

The 68% gain in the Shanghai Composite Index this year and an 11% jump in property prices in the southern city of Shenzhen in September from a year earlier highlight the risk of asset-price bubbles.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc raised Thursday its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 8.5% from 8% and UBS, Barclays Capital, Credit Suisse and HSBC Holdings Plc also increased estimates.

The acceleration in China's growth affirmed it as the world's fastest growing major economy.

*******************************

 China-Africa Development Fund, the Chinese state-backed agency set up to help finance projects in Africa, aims to secure $2 billion by year end, raising the total available to $3 billion.

"We are trying now to capitalize the second phase," Teng Liliang, South African chief representative for the fund, said in an interview while attending a conference in Cape Town Friday. "Possibly another $2 billion" will be available, he said. China Development Bank Corp. provided the first $1 billion.

The fund, established in 2007, has spent $150 million so far on agricultural projects in Malawi and Zambia, a glass and a cement factory in Ethiopia, and industrial parks in Egypt, Nigeria and Mauritius, Teng said. It has committed close to $400 million, according to him.

China is looking to secure oil, copper and agricultural land in Africa to help meet the increasing needs of its expanding economy. For Africa, its relationship with China is "increasingly important" as the continent seeks to reduce "excessive dependence" on traditional trade partners, Festus Fajana, a trade policy expert with the African Union Commission, said in a speech at the conference Friday.

"We are preparing to invest in more projects," Teng said. "We have to be careful to choose the right projects." The goal is to boost total funds in CADF to $5 billion, Teng said.

In South Africa, CADF is considering mining and energy industry investments, according to Teng. A memorandum of understanding with China Guodian Corp. and Yingli Solar was signed to explore setting up factories in South Africa to manufacture solar and wind power equipment, he said.

CADF may open another office in Ethiopia by year end after setting up one in Johannesburg this year, Teng said.

Relations between China and Africa have "deepened" even as a recession hurt businesses in both countries, Xie Boyang, vice chairman of the China-Africa Business Council, said in a speech through a translator.

Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa surged by about 80% to more than $500 million in the first half of this year from the year-earlier period, he said.

*******************************

China needs an "urgent" tightening of monetary policy to prevent the huge stimulus measures introduced this year from inflating stock and property bubbles, one of the country's leading bankers has warned.

Qin Xiao - chairman of China Merchants Bank, the country's sixth-biggest - says in Thursday's Financial Times that the government should not be afraid of a "moderate slowdown" in the economy.

"Monetary policy must not neglect asset-price movements," he writes. "Therefore it is urgent that China shifts from a loose monetary policy stance to a neutral one."

Mr Qin's unusually frank warning comes ahead of the publication on Thursday of third-quarter gross domestic product figures that are expected to underline the rapid recovery in China's economy, with analysts forecasting growth of nearly 9% compared to last year.

According to calculations by the Financial Times and independent economists, China's stimulus measures could amount to 15-17% of GDP this year if government-induced bank lending is taken into account - by far the largest among major economies.

The Chinese government has used its control over the banks to engineer a massive increase in lending this year, with new loans in the first nine months of the year 149% higher than last year at Rmb8,650bn ($1,260bn). Much of this investment has gone into infrastructure projects. The M2 measure of money supply is up 29.3%, year on year.

The giant investment programme has polarised critics, with some predicting inflation and warning that excessive bank loans were causing sharp rises in share and property prices, while others have argued the lending binge would exacerbate over-capacity and encourage deflation.

The State Council, China's cabinet, gave its first clear hint Wednesday evening that it was considering a tighter monetary policy when it said that policy should focus both on managing inflationary expectations as well as securing stable growth - the first time it has mentioned inflation since the global economic crisis hit China last year.  
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 Markets are alert to whether the balance of risks for global stocks may be shifting given some recent asymmetric reactions.

Positive Q3 earnings surprises have outweighed negative ones so far in the United States and in Europe but it is starting to take no more than one analyst sell recommendation on a particular stock to knock broader equity markets. That could leave fund managers who are underperforming the benchmark a thorny choice of selling too early and lagging even further behind, or holding on too long and getting burned.

A slide that has seen a broad dollar index shed about 16 percent of its value since March is eliciting forthright comments from France, China and Canada, while Brazil says it is open to complementing its tax on capital inflows with extra measures.

How much more rhetoric emerges in the coming week will determine how much traders expect to hear about FX issues at the G20 finance ministers' meeting in November.

Corporate earnings from Europe next week will highlight the extent of exporters' pain and could compound pressure on politicians to be seen to be addressing the issue.

The reaction of currency and interest rate markets to Bank of England minutes that omitted any specific mention of QE extension was a foretaste of how markets might cope with the prospect of a reversal of ultra-loose monetary policies in Britain and elsewhere.

The rise in Sterling Libor rates may have paused after unexpectedly weak UK Q3 GDP data but if they resume their climb, it may start to affect traders' inclination to short the Pound. Still, with a relatively long lead time before the BoE actually reverses QE, traders may prefer safer bets, for example on the currencies of countries that are closer to tightening policy.

Sovereign debt issuance picks up with a vengeance next week with a record $123 bln worth of US paper set to hit the market. Speculation is growing about how close some major central banks are to winding up their asset purchases and so far the 10-year part of the curve has borne the brunt of the market reaction.

But while curve steepening has been seen over the past couple of weeks, a flattening could be on the cards given next week's issuance is concentrated at the shorter-end. Closer analysis of which countries' debt servicing costs will rise most steeply when monetary policy is normalized could start to influence spread performance.

Chinese data and official comments have put markets on alert for more signals that policy "normalization" is closer at hand than previously thought. What form this takes, and how FX revaluation speculation develops, will shape expectations of the extent to which China will drive global economic recovery and has the potential to affect both domestic and international markets.

The Australian dollar, which is viewed as a China growth proxy, could be in the frontline of any such fallout in the developed world, while pressure on NDFs could spill over into other Asian currencies such as the Korean Won.

The US data week begins with the little-advertised Chicago Fed National Activity Index on Monday. Case-Shiller home prices and consumer confidence are up on Tuesday while Wednesday sees durable goods, new home sales and the usual weekly oil inventory report. The highlight of the week comes Thursday with 3Q advance GDP along with the typical jobless claims data. Personal income/spending, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index round out the week on Friday.

The Eurozone kicks off with German consumer confidence on Monday. French consumer confidence follows on Tuesday while German CPI is up on Wednesday. The Eurozone business climate indicator, Eurozone consumer confidence and German employment are on tap Thursday. Eurozone CPI and German retail sales close things out on Friday.

The UK has a light week on deck and starts with the CBI distributive trades report on Tuesday. Consumer credit and mortgage approvals are up on Thursday while consumer confidence is due Friday. The Bank of England will also release a report on the asset purchase facility on Monday and this could be market moving as well.

Japan is on the busier side for a change. Retail trade kicks off the action on Tuesday. Small business confidence, PMI manufacturing and industrial production are due Wednesday while Thursday has employment, household spending and consumer prices. Housing starts and the Bank of Japan rate meeting are up Friday.

Canada also has an important week ahead. Data is on the light side with industrial product prices on Thursday and monthly GDP on Friday. However, we also have Bank of Canada Governor Carney speaking on Monday and Finance Minister Flaherty on Tuesday. Given the recent musings with regards to concern about the Canadian dollar strength, these speeches could offer up some market moving tidbits.

The calendar down under is more lively than usual. In Australia we have PPI on Monday, CPI on Wednesday, leading indicators and new home sales on Thursday. New Zealand starts with consumer confidence on Tuesday. Business confidence, trade and the RBNZ rate decision are all due Wednesday while building permits round out the week Thursday.
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
In This Issue
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Global Commodities
Global Currencies
China This Week
Summary
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