Financial Page International

25 April 2009 - Global Markets Review

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen,

For those of you that have been reading my Newsletters for a number of years, an old favourite has reared its head again this week; 'smoke and mirrors'. More on that later.
 
The UK Budget this week dominated proceedings in Europe and after much of the furore had settled, it reminded me of something I learned a long time ago.

The UK always gets what America has ..... eventually!

This week we saw Alistair Darling take a leaf out of Mr Geithner's book in the US and try to paint a remarkably 'rosy' picture out of a bunch of numbers that defied belief.

Adding insult to injury, he then clobbered smokers, drivers, drinkers - and heaven forbid, Bingo Players - and glossed this over by saying that he would give anyone 2,000 Pounds if they 'scrapped' any car they owned that was over 10 years old.

Oh, and for anyone earning over 150,000 Pounds a year, he'd increase the rate of tax from 45% to 50% - making the UK the 7th highest tax locale for 'heavy-earners'.

Somehow, I don't see that extra 5% in tax driving the Oligarchs out of Mayfair and Kensington!

But do you know what was funny, not only did he raise taxes on fuel etc., but he implemented those raises just hours after the budget was released.

Can you imagine the scramble in petrol stations, pubs and small stores as calculators came out in a rush to calculate the new pricings and get these on the pumps for both petrol and beer by 6pm that day when the tax rises came into effect?

But his somewhat 'Bullish' overtones about the UK economy being 'strong, resilient and almost there ....' were laughed at by senior economists and analysts alike - some going as far to suggest that Mr Brown - via Mr Darling - had 'lost the plot' for all intents and purposes.

But if they'd 'lost the plot', where did that leave traders in London?  They must be stark raving bonkers in comparison because the FTSE in London, after a day or uncertainty on Wednesday, took off with a vengeance and amazingly produced 3.4% gains Thursday!

The mind boggles! All very America'esque in my humble opinion.

Talking of which, those 'stress tests' on American banks seem to have 'morphed' from what they were originally intended to signal, into something that The Fed 'want them to signal'.

Seriously, I know it may be hard to believe, but the Fed are glossing over the negatives (and there must have been reams of those in the test results) and just announcing what they see fit to announce.

"Yes Mr Citibank, you've got 20/20 vision, can hear okay, blood pressure is not too bad and your hair's not receding too fast for your age". (Sssshhhh, don't tell him about the liver-failure, shadow on the lung and what looks like an anEurism on the brain. Let's give him hope with the good news and feed him the bad news slowly"!

Maybe it's my British mindset, but "give it to me straight; all of it; now" is surely much better than building up hope slowly but surely, only to pull the rug away from under the feet when 'the time is right'?

Other than smoke and mirrors in the banking sector, we've had those immortal words 'better than expected' (BTE) banded around this week with Ford's losses 'better than expected' and American Express came in BTE with their earnings report.

As an analogy, going back to Mr Citibank and his doctor - if Mr Citibank was told after tests he might need two new arms, a new leg, brain surgery and quadruple heart bypass; he'd surely find just triple bypass surgery, one prosthetic leg and a CAT Scan to be 'better than expected' - but not exactly positive news.

But that's the thing as I have said for weeks now, if you set your expectations so low in the first place, 'anything' is going to be 'something' and in turn can be seen as a 'positive'.

All told, a mildly positive week for global markets with much innuendo surrounding those bank stress tests - the complete, unwavering results of which should (if Mr Geithner and the Fed' deem the timing to be right) be released on 4th May.

I see markets holding on next week with a bias towards slightly negative and then it's downhill from there I'm afraid for a month or more.

Even Mr Geithner, bless him, in a 'moment of madness' an hour ago at the G7 meeting, he cautioned that the global economy isn't close to emerging from "darkness" anytime soon.

No matter how hard attempts are made at cajoling the 'good' out of the markets, there is no hiding or disguising the fact that until unemployment numbers stop rising, there is no such thing as a bottom in these markets.

Add to this, we have not seen the true extent of the Financial Problems yet (true being the operative word) and of course if Chrysler and GM go down the pan like they will, then those unemployment numbers are going to spiral and the market will be thrown into turmoil.

Or maybe that turmoil will be 'better than expected' and some positivity will be gleaned from total mayhem!

To the numbers on the boards this week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryWall Street stocks rallied on Friday following good earnings news, but the benchmark S&P 500 index finished the week lower for the first week in seven.

A late rally added to early gains made after the embattled carmaker Ford announced a surprisingly narrow loss and a slower rate of cash consumption than during the previous quarter. With the company having recently been added to Goldman Sachs' "conviction buy" list, the shares jumped 11.4% to $5.

Equities initially dived after the government released the parameters of its stress tests on banks' capital positions, with some analysts saying they wanted to see more detail on how much capital banks would be required to hold.

But many investors were reassured by the fact the parameters seemed to match those set by Citigroup in what the bank said was an "internal stress test" and shares quickly rallied.

The benchmark S&P 500 index ended 1.7% higher at 866.23 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1.5% up at 8,076.29. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.6% to 1,694.29.

The S&P finished 0.4% lower for the week, while the Dow lost 0.7%. The Nasdaq made a weekly gain of 1.3%, however - the first time it has completed seven straight weeks of gains since 2005.

The week started on a negative note as earnings from Bank of America triggered fears over increasing loan losses at financial companies on Monday and the market saw its biggest one-day fall since the rally began.

A series of better earnings announcements after that helped restore confidence, but equities remained within a range without moving decisively either way.

American Expresswas the latest major financial company to report its results. Its earnings beat expectations, which helped the shares leap 20.7% to $25.30 Thursday morning.

Elsewhere in the sector, Prudential rose after Goldman Sachs upgraded the company from a "sell" to a "buy". Goldman said the sector could find cheap capital from the government. Prudential's shares gained 10.8% to $28.33.

Goldman also increased its price target on MetLife, which rose 3.7% to $29.25.

Microsoft also rose after reporting results that were marginally ahead of consensus expectations. Its shares advanced 10.5% to $20.91 having been given a further boost by Goldman Sachs, which upgraded the company to "overweight", saying it was "ahead of plan on cost controls".

Amazon , the online re-tailer, rose after sales of its Kindle electronic book reader helped revenues rise 18%, defying the consumer downturn. Its shares gained 4.8% to $84.46.

The sector was hampered, however, by Netflix . The online DVD rental company reported strong profits as customers continued to use the service as an inexpensive form of entertainment.

But the shares lost 5.7% to $42.73 as it warned about increasing competition from DVD rental kiosks.

Figures showing orders for durable goods fell less than expected during March and helped the materials sector perform better than any other on the S&P. This also helped industrial stocks in spite of poor results.

3M, the industrial company, reported disappointing earnings and revised its full-year profit forecasts downwards. But its shares still gained 5.2% to $57 as positive sentiment dominated the sector.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryA bumpy beginning to the week on fears over financials was all but offset by the rallying stock of banks and insurers, ensuring Europe's bourses only narrowly missed finishing higher for a seventh consecutive week.

Financials started off on a poor footing, amid rumours the majority of US banks had failed their stress tests.

The International Monetary Fund warned writedowns of banks' toxic assets could reach $4,100bn, further damping sentiment.

However, a string of positive news events prompted an about-turn. Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, reassured investors on Tuesday that "the vast majority of banks" were well capitalised.

Furthermore, Credit Suisse reported first-quarter earnings on Thursday of SFr2bn - twice as much as analysts had expected.

Credit Suisse surged on the news - its shares have risen 18% since Tuesday to SFr43.48.

Deutsche Bank gained 9% to €41.09 over the past four sessions, having rallied 130% since March's lows, and France's BNP Paribas gained 4% to €38.31, having risen 75% since March.

The pan-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 index rose 2.3% to 810.38 Thursday, but was nonetheless 0.4% lower over the week.

France's CAC 40 fell 4% on Monday but the ensuing rally meant that it ended the week 0.8% higher at 3,102.85 - Germany's Xetra Dax added 0.5% to 4,674.32.

Emerging market Turkey enjoyed a strong week as investors anticipated a lending deal with the IMF.

GERMANY

German stocks gained as business confidence in Europe's largest economy rose more than expected in April while Ford Motor Co. and American Express Co. in the US posted results that beat analysts' projections.

Siemens AG, Europe's largest engineering company, climbed 5.4%, while Salzgitter AG, Germany's second-biggest steelmaker, gained 5.3%. Daimler AG and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's largest luxury carmakers, gained more than 3% each. Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG and Deutsche Postbank AG all advanced.

The benchmark DAX Index rose 3% to 4,674.32, trimming its decline this week to 0.1%. The HDAX Index of the country's 110 largest companies increased 3%.

The Ifo institute said Friday its business climate index rebounded from a 26-year low this month as interest-rate cuts and government stimulus packages boosted expectations that the recession will ease later in 2009. French business confidence increased for the first time in 13 months, Paris-based statistics office Insee said Thursday.

The DAX Index posted its first weekly slide in seven weeks as concern that credit losses may increase outweighed optimism that governments' efforts to simulate economic activity and shore up the banking system will work. The measure has rebounded 27% from this year's lows.

Siemens gained 5.4% to 49.31 Euros, and Salzgitter advanced 5.3% to 56.79 Euros. Hochtief AG, Germany's largest construction company, advanced 5.5% to 35.68 Euros, while competitor Bilfinger Berger AG rallied 7.5% to 36.62 Euros.

Bilfinger Berger, the country's second-biggest builder, told investors at a presentation in Frankfurt that the recession should have "no major consequences" for the output of its services division this year.

Daimler rose 3.5% to 27.265 Euros. The world's second-largest maker of luxury cars gets almost a fifth of its revenue in the US Smaller rival BMW added 3.7% to 27.21 Euros while Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest carmaker, rose 3.8% to 236.90 Euros.

Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank, rose 3.8% to 41.09 Euros. Commerzbank, the second-biggest, added 2.8% to 5.09 Euros. Postbank, the retail lender partly owned by Deutsche Bank, increased 4.4% to 15.25 Euros.

Continental AG surged 17% to 20.61 Euros, a three-month high. The company may merge with Schaeffler Group, its 90% owner, and lead a combined company as the two car-parts makers seek to manage more than 20 billion Euros ($26.3 billion) in debt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, without saying where it got the information.

PSI AG advanced 10% to 5.35 Euros. The company, which creates software for utilities, said its first- quarter net income gained 54% to 1.3 million Euros as sales gained 12% and new orders rose.

SMA Solar Technology AG climbed 10% to 43.67 Euros. UBS AG rated the producer of alternating-current converters a "buy" in new coverage, saying the stock "is now our preferred pick in our European solar coverage."

Solarworld AG fell 1.5% to 19.40 Euros. UBS AG lowered its recommendation on Germany's third-largest solar company to "neutral" from "buy."

Wincor Nixdorf AG lost 4.3% to 37.45 Euros, a three-week low. HSBC Holdings Plc lowered its recommendation on the world's second-largest maker of automated teller machines to "neutral" from "overweight."

FRANCE

France's benchmark CAC 40 Index rose 94.23, or 3.1%, to 3,102.85. The gauge has gained 0.4% this week, its seventh straight weekly gain. The SBF 120 added 64.78, or 3%, to 2,253.11.

Areva SA added 9.18 Euros, or 2.5%, to 380 Euros, the fourth straight advance. The world's biggest maker of nuclear reactors reported an 8.5% rise in first-quarter revenue to 3 billion Euros and confirmed its full-year forecasts for revenue and operating income growth.

Separately, Air France-KLM Group Chairman Jean-Cyril Spinetta will next week be named chairman of Areva's supervisory board, Les Echos reported, without saying where it got the information.

Axa SA increased 18.5 cents, or 1.6%, to 11.91 Euros, its third gain this week. Europe's second-largest insurer was raised to "outperform" from "neutral" at Exane BNP Paribas.

BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, rose 1.75 Euros, or 4.8%, to 38.41, its second gain this week. Separately, the bank said its retail brokerage unit in India will make money in 2009 and the bank may consider increasing its stake to more than 50% as early as next year.

Credit Agricole SA, the country's second-largest, climbed 53.5 cents, or 5.3%, to 10.57 Euros. Separately, the bank has reached an agreement with Assicurazioni Generali SpA over their holdings in lender Intesa Sanpaolo SpA.

Societe Generale SA, the third-biggest lender, rose 1.29 Euros, or 3.5%, to 38.37.

Banks rallied as American Express Co., the biggest US credit-card company by purchases, posted first-quarter profit from continuing operations of 32 cents a share, more than double the average analyst estimate.

Electricite de France SA rose the most in a month, adding 2.26 Euros, or 6.9%, to 35.02 Euros. Europe's biggest power producer should sell rivals as much nuclear power as they need at a regulated wholesale rate to boost competition in Europe's second-largest power market, a commission recommended.

European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. advanced 92 cents, or 8.8%, to 11.40 Euros, the biggest gain this year. Investors bet the appointment of a new US arms-buying official will revive the company's chances of winning a $35 billion contract.

LDC SA rose 1.70 Euros, or 2.6%, to 66.11 Euros, its highest level since June. Europe's largest publicly traded poultry processor is in exclusive talks to buy Groupe Arrive, poultry and animal feeds company.

Renault SA gained 75.5 cents, or 3.4%, to 23.31 Euros, rising for a fourth straight day. France's second- biggest automaker rallied after French consumer spending rebounded more than expected in March as slowing inflation and government incentives lifted demand for clothing and cars.

Separately, Renault SA's Romanian car unit Dacia SA will increase daily production by 12% this year as exports increase, boosted by incentives to spur demand.

PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe's second-biggest automaker, added 58 cents, or 3.4%, to 17.75 Euros.

Sanofi-Aventis SA rose 76.5 cents, or 1.9%, to 40.71 Euros, the biggest gain in three weeks. The world's third-largest drugmaker is looking for partnerships with Chinese companies, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing the company's Chief Executive Officer, Christopher A. Viehbacher.

Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company rose 1.75 Euros, or 4.8%, to 38.35 Euros. Eni SpA, the first of Europe's oil majors to publish results, reported earnings, excluding inventory changes, which beat analysts' expectations.

Separately, crude oil rose to $50 barrel in New York for the first time in four days as the Dollar dropped, dulling demand for commodities as a currency hedge.

BELGIUM

The Bel 20 ended the day at 1,955.82, that was a mighty 2.65% up on Friday alone.

A group of Fortis shareholders has come up with an alternate plan for the troubled financial services company and intends to try to defeat an existing proposal that would see much of Fortis's operations sold to French bank BNP Paribas.

The shareholders are advocating what they describe as the stand-alone option. Under this plan, BNP Paribas would be replaced by Fortis SA/NV as Belgium's counterpart. This would involve the Belgian government selling at least 50% of Fortis Bank back to Fortis, with the rest being sold gradually over time.

According to the shareholders, their stand-alone plan would create a strategically coherent group with a strong bancassurance franchise that would be centered on the Belgian and Luxembourg economies, which they say could generate 1 billion Euros in banking profits and 11.6 billion Euros in insurance premiums.

Shares in Belgian biotech group Devgen surged 14.8%, a five-month high after announcing that Monsanto, the world's largest seed company, paid it 20 million Euros ($26.05 million) in exchange for expanded rights to Devgen technology.

Devgen's gains sharply outperform the Belgian small-cap index which ended up 0.5%. Despite the gains, Devgen shares remain more than 60% below their 52-week high of 15.42 Euros reached in May 2008.

THE NETHERLANDS

In Amsterdam the AEX closed out Friday at 239.34, up 1.72% on the day.

Dutch recruitment firm Randstad Holdings, closed up 7.6% Friday.

The firm swung to a first-quarter net loss of 52.6 million Euros ($69.4 million), after factoring in 53.7 million Euros of restructuring charges. A year earlier, it posted quarterly net income of 75.1 million Euros.

Sales increased 37% to 3.1 billion Euros, broadly in line with analyst forecasts.

SWITZERLAND

The SMI in Zurich ended the week at 5,113.05, up 1.77% on the day.

Credit Suisse shares rose another 0.7%, extending sharp earnings-related gains from the previous session. It was upgraded to neutral from sell by UBS on Friday and to neutral from underperform by Exane BNP Paribas.

Continued international penetration and market share gains will be the fuel for future revenue growth at Alcon. Sales in emerging markets, including China, Russia and India continue to be big contributors to growth. The company generates a significant amount of operating cash flow, which we would expect to be reinvested in the form of increased R&D in an effort to restock the company's drug portfolio following certain patent expirations.

Cash flow may also be returned to shareholders through another share buyback program, which may be initiated now that Novartis (NVS) has completed the initial purchase of Nestlé's stake in the company. Alcon is already putting some of that cash to work in the form of dividends. The company proposed that the dividend be increased to 3.95 Swiss francs per share (from 2.63 Swiss francs) or roughly $3.47 per share at current exchange rates.  This is a 50% increase.

Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holding AG said Friday it will start a new trial for Tarceva in lung cancer patients with a certain form of gene mutation, challenging a similar drug candidate from UK-rival AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) that got a positive European Union panel recommendation Thursday.

Roche said it was working with the Spanish Lung Cancer Group, or SLCG, on a trial to study Tarceva as a first therapy for patients with a mutation in the so called epidermal growth factor receptor, or EGFR, which plays an important role for the development of lung cancer.

The trial will evaluate whether Tarceva works better for the initial treatment of patients with such a mutation than chemotherapy.

Roche shares traded up CHF3, or 2.2%, at CHF137.90 while the broader Swiss bourse traded up 1.5%.

Year-to-date, Roche shares have lost around 15% of their value, largely in line with an 18% drop in the European Stoxx 600 Health Care index. 

AUSTRIA

In Vienna, the ATX closed at 1,860.71 - huge gains of 3.63% for the session.

Troubled Austrian property group Immofinanz disappointed investors with a weak take-up of its offer to swap two convertible bonds, possibly limiting its option to merge with subsidiary Immoeast.

Immofinanz said on Friday 38% of its convertible bonds maturing 2014 and 2017, worth a combined 1.5 billion Euros ($2 billion), were exchanged into the new convertible bonds it offered, thereby reducing its liabilities to 1.2 billion Euros.

However, chief executive Eduard Zehetner had told Reuters in an interview last week that at least 50% of the bonds would have to be swapped to make possible a merger of Immofinanz with its Immoeast unit.

Immofinanz shares were down 7% at 1.65 Euros.

The chief executive of Austria's largest oil and gas company OMV, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, is under scrutiny for alleged insider trading with company shares as well as alleged market manipulation.

OMV is one of the most significant equity investments by Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Company (Ipic) in Europe, with 19.2% of OMV's shares held by Ipic.

The supervisory authority of the Vienna stock exchange confirmed on Tuesday that they are investigating a share deal by Ruttenstorfer worth 620,000 Euros (Dh2.79 million) executed on March 23, just before OMV surprisingly sold its stake in its loss-making Hungarian competitor, oil company MOL. After the sale, shares of OMV rose 3.3% while the Austrian Traded Index ATX fell more than four% due to otherwise poor market conditions that day.

SWEDEN

Stockholm's OMX 30 closed at 779.16, up 0.82% on the day.

Volvo slipped 1.8% to 54 kronor. The world's second-largest maker of heavy trucks cut its industry sales forecast and reported its second straight quarterly loss as transporters cut purchases amid the economic slump.

TeliaSonera slid 2.5% to 38.40 kronor. Sweden's biggest phone company lowered its full-year sales outlook, predicting revenue in 2009 will be "around the same level" as in 2008. The company posted first-quarter net income that was little changed.

SEB shares lost 5% in Stockholm.

The banking group said Friday that its first-quarter net income fell 45% to 1.03 billion Swedish kronor ($124 million) as the bank added that it will apply to participate in the Swedish government's funding guarantee program. Provisions for credit losses jumped to 2.39 billion kronor from 364 million kronor and it took 594 million kronor of impairment charges related to its business in the Ukraine.

FINLAND

The OMX in Helsinki saw gains Friday, although not as great as some of its European peers. Closing out the week at 5,429.94, up just 0.43% Friday.

Stora Enso Oyj, Europe's biggest papermaker, said it plans to cut 2,000 more jobs and predicted that demand will continue to fall through the next quarter.

"It is increasingly clear that the sharp volume declines we are experiencing in our markets are driven more by underlying declines in demand than customer de-stocking," Chief Executive Officer Jouko Karvinen said. "Our forecast for the second quarter is for more of the same."

Stora aims to save 250 million Euros ($326 million) a year, mainly by eliminating management and administrative posts the Helsinki-based company said in a statement. Karvinen, who has already cut almost 4,000 jobs in his first two years at the helm, will continue production cutbacks during the second quarter that have idled almost 25% of Stora's capacity. The papermaker said it sees no "material" improvement in European demand.

The company posted a first-quarter net loss of 38.2 million Euros, or 5 cents a share, compared with a profit of 70.5 million Euros, or 9 cents, a year earlier, Stora said Friday.

Finnish department store group Stockmann reported a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss, hit by a weak economy, currencies and the closing of a store, and said its second quarter would also be weak.

Stockmann shares were down 2.6% at 11.48 Euros.

Finnish engineer Wartsila reported forecast-beating earnings on Friday thanks to strength in its power plant and ship engine businesses, but worries about shipping demand knocked its shares.

First-quarter operating profit leapt 60% year-on-year to 130 million Euros ($171 million), topping all forecasts in a Reuters poll where the average estimate was 95 million Euros.

Net sales at Wartsila, one of the world's biggest suppliers of marine engines, were also robust, jumping 46% to 1.24 billion Euros and well ahead of all forecasts. Sales at its power plant unit more than doubled to 431 million Euros.

Wartsila shares initially jumped as much as 8% on the result, but then cooled and fell into the red, down 3.3% at 21.62 Euros

NORWAY

In Oslo, the OBX gained 2.39% Friday to bring the week to a close at 219.41.

Norway's biggest banking group, DnB NOR ASA said Friday it has appointed a top regional manager to head a new Norwegian business unit as part of its overall restructuring plan aimed at cutting costs by 2 billion Norwegian kroner ($299 million) through 2012.

Karin Bing Orgland, currently head of DnB's regional division east in corporate banking and payment services, has been a central figure in planning the new unit which is being launched in the summer, DnB said. Orgland was also named group executive vice president.

The unit will be geared toward retail customers and large parts of the Norwegian corporate market. Chief Executive Rune Bjerke said it will aim to offer customers a "more homogeneous and integrated DnB NOR."

Bjerke said: "Given (Orgland's) long experience and wide range of expertise, she is tailor-made for the task."

DnB spokesman Trond Bentestuen said the unit will have an impact on personnel and branches, without giving more detail.

DnB NORD, partly owned by Norway's biggest bank group DnB NOR, is closing two Danish offices because of the effects of the financial crisis and losses in the real estate market, the bank said on Friday.

A venture with Germany's Norddeutsche Landesbank, DnB NORD was founded in January 2006 and has said it was struggling with its Danish operations.

Norwegian video conferencing systems maker Tandberg lagged forecasts with an 11% rise in first-quarter operating profit, and said on Thursday its was seeing effects of constrained spending.

"The video industry did experience prolonged sales cycles and the effect of constrained capex in Q1," Tandberg ASA's Chief Executive, Fredrik Halvorsen, told a presentation.

"Against that, we made no compromises on the balance sheet, we have strong operational control and we have strengthened our competitive position," Halvorsen said.

Operating profit rose to $41 million in the three months to end-March, lagging the average forecast of $43 million in a Reuters poll of 11 analysts whose estimates ranged from $34 million to $47 million.

DENMARK

In Copenhagen the OMX 20 closed out the week at 268.85, gains of 1.52% on the day.

Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk A/S will be able to launch its closely-watched diabetes drug Victoza on a number of European markets by the summer, after European Union regulators late Thursday recommended the treatment for approval, Chief Scientific Officer Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen told Dow Jones Newswires Friday.

"We are extremely happy about it," he said. "Over years, we believe that this product can target very many patients on the European continent". There are currently some 25 million diabetics in Europe and the number is growing, he added.

Victoza belongs to a class of diabetes drugs known as GLP-1 analogues, which compared to conventional treatment with insulin have the advantage of not pushing blood sugar levels dangerously low, and also help patients lose weight.

Krogsgaard Thomsen said Victoza will be the first GLP-1 type diabetes treatment on the market apart from Eli Lilly's and Amylin's Byetta, and added that Victoza is more effective than the competitor at improving blood glucose control.

"We believe that we have a fantastic opportunity now to be the preferential product in the GLP-1 class," he said.

Krogsgaard Thomsen said Novo Nordisk is hoping to eventually launch Victoza in all E.U. countries, provided that it can get a sufficient price for the drug.

He didn't comment on where the company will first launch Victoza. He noted, however, that negotiations over reimbursement and market access will take longer in countries like France, while a more rapid launch will be possible in Germany and the UK

"We will definitely roll out in several countries over the months to come," he added.

On April 2, an advisory panel of the US Food & Drug Administration came to a split vote on whether to recommend Victoza for US approval due to concerns that it might cause thyroid cancer. Krogsgaard Thomsen said his company is in dialogue with the regulator, and expects it to reach a final decision "within months".

In a note to investors, Jyske Bank said the European approval of Victoza is positive for Novo Nordisk, but added that a launch on the bigger US market would still be a more important share price trigger.

Shares in Novo Nordisk were up 2.8% at DKK273.00.

SPAIN

The IBEX 35 in Madrid ended up 1.36% on the day, closing at 8,888.20.

Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana SA slumped 9% to 1.52 Euros, the most since November, after Spain's biggest airline said that it plans no dividend on 2008 earnings and it's unlikely to post a profit this year if the recession continues to suppress demand for travel.

Spain's Gas Natural said on Friday it plans to issue shares to pay for the share swap to acquire the remaining about 5% of Union Fenosa it does not already own.

Gas Natural said on Thursday it planned to offer three of its own shares for every five of the remaining 45 million shares in Fenosa, indicating the issue of about 27 million new shares or 3% of Gas Natural's share capital.

Gas Natural was down 1.54% at 12.09 Euros.

PORTUGAL

In Lisbon the PSI General closed up 1.22% at 2,261.22.

Portuguese power company EDP said on Friday its first-quarter energy distribution fell 1.6% in Portugal and Spain, while a drop in mining activity in Brazil caused a steep decline in supplies to large industrial consumers there.

The volume of electrical energy distributed in Portugal dipped just 0.9% to 12,917 gigawatt hours (GWh), while EDP's natural gas distribution rose 1.8%, which the company said demonstrated resilience during the economic downturn.

In Spain, where the crisis hit much harder after years of economic boom, EDP's electricity sales slumped 4.9% to 2,374 GWh and gas distribution slipped 1.1%.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark S&P/MIB Index gained for a third day, rose to the highest in 2 1/2 months, adding 506, or 2.8%, to 18,651 in Milan. The gauge increased 0.8% this week.

Aedes SpA jumped 5.15 cents, or 8.8%, to 63.95 cents. The real estate and fund-management company said Thursday after the close that it finalized the restructuring agreement with investors Isoldi and the Amenduni family. The company is confident that creditor banks will give their support to the agreement in the next few days.

Ansaldo STS SpA rose 43 cents, or 3.8%, to 11.85 Euros. Finmeccanica SpA's railway technology unit said first-quarter profit rose 49% to 15.6 million Euros ($20.7 million).

Finmeccanica SpA, Italy's biggest defense company, gained 66.5 cents, or 6.8%, to 10.44 Euros. European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. surged in Paris as investors bet the appointment of a new US arms-buying official will revive the company's chances of winning a $35 billion contract.

Eni SpA rose to the highest in almost two months, adding 76 cents, or 5.1%, to 15.74 Euros. Italy's biggest oil producer said that first-quarter net income excluding changes to inventory values was 1.76 billion Euros, beating the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg of 1.55 billion Euros.

Citigroup Inc. said in a note that "Eni remains the best 'value' stock in the sector." Collins Stewart said in a note Friday's release may improve investors' confidence "in the sustainability of the dividend."

Fiat SpA rose 28.5 cents, or 3.8%, to 7.7 Euros. Italy's biggest carmaker had its price estimate increased at JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS AG, Citigroup Inc., Exane BNP Paribas, Cheuvreux, Commerzbank, Natixis Securities, and Sal Oppenheim Jr & Cie. after Thursday's first-quarter figures. Fiat said in a statement after the close of trading that it hasn't made an offer to buy a stake in General Motors Corp.'s Opel unit.

Fondiaria-Sai SpA climbed to the highest in almost three months, adding 1.05 Euros, or 9.2%, to 12.49 Euros. Italy's second-largest insurer had its price estimate increased to 14.4 Euros from 12 Euros at Mediobanca Securities, which cited "the recent positive performance of equity markets." The brokerage kept a "neutral" rating.

Gruppo Editoriale L'Espresso SpA, the Italian publisher controlled by De Benedetti, surged 14.7 cents, or 15%, to 1.1 Euros, taking its gains from the release of first-quarter figures on April 22 to 42%. Gruppo Banca Leonardo said in a note that the results were above its expectations, mainly because of cost-cutting.

Lottomatica SpA, the manager of Italy's national lottery, rose for a fourth day, adding 51 cents, or 3.3%, to 16 Euros. Italy may use lotteries to raise funds for its 8 billion-Euro plan to rebuild Abruzzo, the central Italian region devastated by an earthquake this month, Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti said Thursday. 

Saipem SpA, Europe's largest oil-field services contractor by market value, advanced 74 cents, or 4.8%, to 16.05 Euros. Crude oil rose for a fourth day as advancing equities and a weaker Dollar outweighed concern the recession will cut fuel demand.

Seat Pagine Gialle SpA rose for the first time in three sessions, adding 9.2% to 18.49 cents. UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking upgraded Italy's largest publisher of phone directories to "hold" from "sell," citing "potential re-rating."

Tenaris SA, the world's biggest maker of seamless steel tubes for pipelines, surged 45.5 cents, or 5%, to 9.55 Euros, erasing Thursday's losses. The US International Trade Commission voted 6-0 that certain welded line pipe imports from China have been sold into the US at "less than fair value," and therefore injuring US producers. 

Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA gained 11 cents, or 4.8%, to 2.41 Euros. The owner of Italy's national power grid said it sold a stake in Terna Participacoes SA to Cemig Geracao e Transmissao SA for 809 million Euros.

UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking upgraded the stock to "buy" from "hold" after the deal, while Santander Private Banking increased its price estimate to 3 Euros from 2.9 Euros and reiterated a "buy" recommendation.

Tiscali SpA, the Italian Internet provider that put itself up for sale, climbed 8 cents, or 25%, to 40 cents, the steepest increase in 1 1/2 months. "The company confirms the existence of negotiations for the disposal of its activities in the UK," Cagliari, Italy- based Tiscali said in a statement Friday.

GREECE

In Athens, the appropriately named 'Athex' closed at 1,926.54, up 1.08% on the trading session Friday.

Shareholders of Greece's state-controlled Post Bank, the country's seventh-largest lender, approved on Wednesday plans for a rights issue of up to 526 million Euros ($679.7 million) to boost its capital.

The lender plans to issue up to 142 million new shares, the company said in a statement. Existing shareholders will get one new share for every one held.

Post Bank GSPr.AT in March reported a 93% fall in its annual net 2008 profit to 2.85 million Euros, hurt by loan-loss provisions and trading losses.

The bank got in January shareholders' approval for a 225 million Euro capital increase via the sale of preferred shares to the government, as part of a state-backed 28-billion-Euro support package for banks.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsLondon equities traders took news of a sharper-than-expected contraction in the size of the UK economy in their stride on Friday, with further signs of returning bid activity keeping their attention.

First-quarter UK gross domestic product data showed the UK economy shrank 1.9% between January and March this year, greater than forecasts of a 1.5% fall and worse than Alistair Darling's statement in the Budget earlier this week that the fall in output in the first quarter would be "similar" to the final quarter fall of last year.

The quarterly fall was the biggest drop in economic output for 20 years and cast doubts on the chancellor's forecasts for the year given just two days ago.

In his Budget speech Mr Darling said the UK economy would shrink by 3.5% this year before rebounding and growing at a rate of 1.5% next year and by 3.5% in 2011.

London's senior index ended the session 138 points higher at 4,155.99, a gain of 3.4%. The mid-cap FTSE 250 climbed 2.6% to 7,369.75.

Reports that Carphone Warehouse was preparing to bid for Tiscali, the Italian telecoms service provider active in the UK market, saw Carphone's shares rise 3.1% to 148½p and Tiscali's stock suspended in Milan.

Tiscali confirmed it was in talks to dispose of its UK arm as part of its bank debt renegotiations. Carphone confirmed plans earlier in the week to split its mobile phone retail operations and landline subscription activities into two separately-listed businesses.

The report came one session after testing group Intertek rose to an eight month high after talk industry leader SGS of Switzerland was preparing a bid. Intertek's stock climbed a further 1.6% on Friday to £10.20.

There was also important support from gains on Wall Street, helping keep reaction to the GDP data on equities markets muted.

March retail sales volumes rose 0.3% in March from February, a 1.5% advance year-on-year driven by sales of clothing and food.

Retail stocks, already cheered by news of higher-than-forecast profits at Debenhams earlier in the week, kept rising. The department store chain was a further 8.7% higher at 84p. Fashion chain Next was 3.7% stronger at £15.86 and Marks and Spencer rose 0.5% to 341¾p.

WH Smith, the newsagents chain and book retailer, made further gains of 5.7% to 438¾p after analysts at Altium Securities raised their rating on the stock to "buy" from "hold" after its trade was boosted by the demise of Woolworths, as revealed in a well-received trading update before the previous session.

Cable & Wireless rose 5.3% to 157.4p after analysts at JP Morgan increased their rating on the stock to "overweight" from "neutral".
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Tokyo stocks dropped Friday as the Yen surged and market players took profits in anticipation of weekend news regarding the US government's bank stress tests and the fate of automaker Chrysler.
 
The market will likely have more downside risk during the rush of earnings reports from major Japanese firms next week. Although weak results for the just-ended fiscal year have already been largely factored into shares, companies' forecasts for the current fiscal year may yet contain enough negative surprises to cause a selloff.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 139.02 points, or 1.6%, to 8707.99. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues fell 9.45 points, or 1.1%, to 830.05. Volume was moderately high at about 2.7 billion shares.

June Nikkei 225 futures ended down 90 points, or 1%, at 8740 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

For the week, the Nikkei closed down 2.2%, and remains off 1.7% year-to-date.

Analysts generally attributed the Nikkei's fall to profit-taking after the market got a boost Thursday thanks partly to the set up of new mutual funds.

Among bellwether issues, automaker Toyota Motor dropped 2.1% to Y3,810, while Nissan Motor sank 4.8% to Y494.

The steel subindex, which lost 3.7%, was the biggest sector decliner, as Goldman Sachs cut its view to Cautious from Neutral, recommending profit-taking on recent sharp gains. As of Thursday's close, the sector had risen 33% in April.

Steel maker JFE Holdings fell 3.1% to Y2,825; the firm was one of the first major corporate names to announce full fiscal year earnings. Released during afternoon trading hours, JFE's net profit was better than its forecast, but the company withheld its earnings projection for the current fiscal year. With its earnings outlook still uncertain, investors would want to wait and see how JFE's production recovers in July and beyond, said a Japanese brokerage analyst.

Bank stocks ended firmly higher, led by Mizuho Financial Group, which added 3.6% as investors bought on the view that negativity is now mostly priced in after recent, mostly unflattering media reports related to banks' earnings, said a market analyst at a Japanese brokerage.

Among individual share movers, Pioneer sank 6.5% to Y371 on nearly triple normal volume as profit-taking kicked in after the issue soared 44% in the past two sessions on hopes for public fund injections and hopes for Honda Motor's possible investment in the struggling electronics maker.

In other cash markets, the Osaka Securities Exchange fell 84.75 points, or 0.5%, to 16,619.64, while the Jasdaq Securities Exchange ended up 4.3 points, or 0.4%, at 1,034.40.

SOUTH KOREA

Seoul shares ended lower after volatile trade on Friday, weighed down by losses in Samsung Electronics, which fell despite posting strong results.

Samsung Elec shed 5.58%, posting its biggest daily percentage loss in more than three months since mid-January, despite reporting a 619 billion won ($458.1 million) net profit for the first quarter, substantially more than the market consensus.

But its operating profit came slightly below market estimates.

The company said non-operating income rose mainly on contributions from its units and affiliates and that it was too early to announce a recovery in demand or prices.

Analysts also said that speculation of an earnings surprise prior to the results announcement, and concerns over relative weakness of the won which had helped South Korean chip sales but perhaps not for the rest of the year, also weighed.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index finished down 1.07% at 1,354.10 points.

Shares in Hynix Semiconductor, which posted smaller-than-expected operating losses on Friday, cut their earlier gains to end 4.73% lower. But banks advanced across the board, helped by rises in their US peers and as investors shifted their interest from the technology sector to financials.

KB Financial Group ended 1.47% higher and Shinhan Financial Group rose 2.07%. Kia Motors fell 4.21% despite quarterly earnings figures that beat market estimates, following a recent rally.

Shares in Kia Motors had gained 12.5% as of Thursday's closing from a week ago, compared with the broader market's 2.9% gain.

HONG KONG

Early gains in European markets on hopes over the US government's preliminary results from the stress tests on its banks sent Hong Kong shares slightly higher Friday, reversing early losses.

But analysts said the local market is likely to consolidate in the near term as it has risen 12% so far this month and is up 35% since March 9, when the index was at its lowest point this year of 11,344.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 44.39 points, or 0.29%, to 15,258.85 after trading between 15,062.29 and 15,367.48 during the session.

Turnover totaled HK$51.74 billion, down from HK$52.61 billion Thursday.

Contract handset maker Foxconn International extended its gains Friday after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to neutral from sell and raised its target price to HK$3.50 from HK$1.50 on Nokia's improving outlook.

Foxconn rose 9.6% to HK$4.67, extending a 7.9% rise Thursday.

ICBC fell 2.5% to HK$4.27 on news that Allianz and American Express are considering selling down their stakes in the bank.

A source said they have mandated Goldman Sachs to handle the potential US$2 billion-plus sale. The lockup on half of American Express' and Allianz's combined 2.3% holding will expire Tuesday, and the sale will likely happen soon after that, said the source.

China Huiyuan Juice soared on news that Coca-Cola was in talks with the company, raising hopes over a possible tie-up.

Bourse operator Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing also rose after it improved its earnings outlook for the year as turnover rose in the first quarter of 2009.

CHINA

Investors took profit in copper producers and agricultural companies following Thursday's brief rise, sending China shares lower Friday despite the regulator's pledge to maintain a loose credit policy.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, reversed morning gains to end down 0.6% at 2448.59, after hitting an intraday high of 2481.53.

The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.5% to 821.17.

Trading volume for the Shanghai Composite Index fell to CNY110.3 billion ($16.1 billion) from CNY115.7 billion Thursday.

Analysts said they expect the Shanghai index to consolidate in a range of 2400-2500 next week.

Late Thursday, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said the credit policy it has been pursuing since the beginning of the year hasn't changed.

Agricultural companies led losses after rising Thursday. Shandong Denghai Seeds fell 5.9% to CNY22.20 after rising 3.7%, and Hefei Fengle Seed shed 5.9% to CNY12.10 after gaining 2.2%.

Copper producers fell on profit-taking due to losses in underlying commodity prices. Jiangxi Copper decreased 4.2% to CNY23.42 after gaining 6.3% Thursday, and Yunnan Copper Industry ended down 4.1% at CNY19.43 after rising 5.9% Thursday.

Copper futures traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange settled lower on a technical selloff, with the benchmark August contract settling 2% lower at CNY35,400 a metric ton Friday.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stocks rose 1.34% on Friday to a one-week intraday high, with financial shares such as Cathay Financial rising ahead of cross-Strait talks on opening up financial sectors between Taiwan and China.

The banking and insurance sub-index jumped 2.59%, with Cathay Financial, Taiwan's top listed financial holding firm, 2.5% higher.

A third round of negotiations between from Taiwan and China is set to take place on Saturday, which will include talks on opening up financial sectors to each other and expanding direct flights.

On Tuesday, a local newspaper said Taiwan plans to let Chinese investors indirectly buy up to 30% of Taiwanese firms in the latest sign of improving ties across the Taiwan Strait.

DRAM makers were mixed after the world's top DRAM maker, South Korea's Samsung Electronics, predicted on Friday that prices of DRAM chips would fall by a mid-40s% in 2009.

Samsung said it was premature to expect near-term demand recovery for the overall market.

Shares of Powerchip, the island's No.1 DRAM firm, rose 0.47%. Nanya Tech fell 2.46% while ProMOS gained 6.71%.

AU Optronics Corp, the world's No.3 LCD maker, fell 0.85%, taking a breather after gaining over 24% so far this month.

After the market was closed on Thursday, the flat panel maker forecast a rise in shipments and prices this quarter after reporting its second straight quarterly net loss due to weak demand.

The transportation sub-index climbed 0.39% after a newspaper said the number of cross-strait flights will be increased to 220 a week by June, with a target of eventually allowing 357 flights a week.

THE PHILIPPINES

Share prices closed 1.7% higher on Friday, lifted by key blue chips, dealers said.

The composite index gained 35.33 points to 2,103.63 while the all-shares index gained 1.64% to 1,367.33.

There were 62 gainers, 31 losers and 40 unchanged.

Volume totalled 2.327 billion shares worth P2.49 billion ($51.21 million).

The local currency traded at 48.57 to the Dollar on Friday morning from 48.65 at its close on Thursday.

Meralco gained 11.82% to P104.00.

Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. rose 0.69% to P2,180.00.

Filinvest Land Inc. rose 8.69% to 50 centavos while Ayala Land Inc. rose 3.22% to P6.40.

THAILAND

Thai stocks rose Friday after a 12-day state of emergency was lifted.

The announcement of the end of the state of emergency in Bangkok pushed Thai stocks up up 1.72%, although some analysts doubted they would go much higher in the near term.

Tourism-related shares reponded positively to the lifting of the emergency, with national carrier Thai Airways surging 8.3%, Airports of Thailand up 2.2% and hotelier Minor International up 7%.

SINGAPORE

Singapore shares fell on Friday, hurt by a plunge in first-quarter earnings from CapitaLand.

Singapore's Straits Times Index dipped 0.38%.

CapitaLand, Southeast Asia's largest developer, fell 2.26% after it reported an 83% plunge in first-quarter net profit and warned about losses on investment properties.

The sell-off was also stirred by weaker private home prices. Singapore government data showed prices fell 14.1% in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter, as the city-state plunged into its worst-ever recession.

Keppel Land, Singapore's third-largest developer, fell 6.38% after it announced a rights issue.

INDONESIA

Indonesian shares edged down on Friday, as there were few positive sentiments that could drive the market up.

The market was on a roller-coaster ride on Friday because of few positive sentiments.

The Jakarta Composite Index only fell by 0.09%, or 1.36 points, to 1,591.33 points.

The JCI also suffered from the trading halt on Thursday due to technical problems with its new system. This has prompted the IDX to suspend Trimegah, one of the largest local brokerage firms, since Friday morning, with the bourse blaming its transactions for the Thursday halt.

The blue-chip LQ-45 index was also almost flat on Friday, inching down by 0.87 points, or 0.28%, to close at 314.19 points.

Despite commodity-related stocks going up along with agricultural and mining stocks, the gains were not enough to cover the losses in other sectors, such as in the finance and infrastructure sectors, which fell 1.39%, and 0.73%, respectively.

Trading was less active than the days before, with only 9.8 billion shares changing hands, worth Rp 3 trillion ($8.65 billion).

MALAYSIA

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended higher Friday after active trading, led by gains on most of the key bluechips as investors responded positively to the market liberalisation of 27 services sub-sectors recently, dealers said.

Services based counters took the limelight Friday, pushing the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) higher by 1.44% or 14.04 points to close the day at 992.68. The key index had opened 3.45 points higher at 982.09 this morning.

There were also some renewed interest in financial counters ahead of the upcoming financial services liberalisation announcement next week.

At close, the Finance Index surged 154.45 points to 7,609.96, the Plantation Index advanced 89.81 points to 5,046.89 and the Industrial Index was up 26.76 points to 2,257.85.

Of the FTSE-BM series, the FBMEmas climbed 107.90 points to 6,571.18, the FBM30 went up 104.03 points to 6,363.32, the FBM2BRD widened 160.03 points to 4,299.27 and the FBM-MDQ earned 54.32 points to 3,603.52.

Gainers outshone losers by 594 to 139 while 185 counters were unchanged, 324 untraded and 35 others suspended.

Overall volume was robust at 2.082 billion shares worth RM1.667 billion compared with 1.366 billion shares worth RM1.276 billion on Thursday.

INDIA

Indian shares rose 1.74% on Friday, on firm European markets and sustained buying by local funds, dealers said.

The benchmark 30-share Sensex rose 194.06 points to 11,329.05. Markets were choppy in early trade, amid political uncertainty as the possibility of a fragmented coalition government grows when marathon general elections end next month.

The markets were volatile in early trade, but got a boost from the European markets trading in green.

Gainers led losers 1,536 to 970 on volume of 52.54 billion Rupees ($1.05 million).

Banking stocks rose for the second straight day on hopes that lower interest rates will boost lending growth.

India's largest private sector bank ICICI Bank rose 8.9 Rupees or 2.1% to 432.5, ahead of its fourth quarter earnings announcement Saturday. The country's largest bank, State Bank of India, rose 42.1 Rupees or 3.33% to 1,307.8.

Top Indian carmaker Maruti Suzuki India shares rose 2.6 Rupees or 0.33% to 802.25 as the company announced improved quarterly sales and exports on Friday. Maruti however showed an 18.5% fall in net profit in the fourth quarter, hit by higher input costs and weak demand. Its net profit reached 2.43 billion Rupees ($48 million) in the three months ended March, down from 2.98 billion Rupees a year earlier.

AUSTRALIA

Fear of aftershocks from the global financial crisis saw the Australian share market give back much of Thursday's rally, leaving the index in negative territory for the week.

Most sectors came under pressure, with financials and consumer staples doing most of the damage to the index.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 30.7 points, or 0.8%, at 3712.3 after falling to 3687.0.

It hit a five-month high of 3851.2 last week. The index was 19% above its multiyear year low of 3120.8, struck last month.

Consumer staples retreated Friday after rising strongly Thursday on Kirin's takeover bid for Lion Nathan.

Woolworths fell 2.9% to A$26.34, Wesfarmers fell 2.8% to A$21.20 and Foster's fell 2.3% to A$5.08.

Banks were mostly weaker, lead by Commonwealth Bank falling 2.8% to A$35.96, though National Australia Bank rose 0.9% to A$22.25.

Analysts remain hopeful that NAB and ANZ would beat consensus expectations when they report interim earnings next week.

Materials were mixed despite weaker base metal prices.

Interestingly, Rio Tinto rose 2.2% to A$59.88 while BHP Billiton fell 1.3% to A$32.05 as the market considered the possibility of a friendly deal on iron ore.

OZ Minerals rose 4.5 cents to A$0.6750 after the foreign investment review board approved MinMetals bid Thursday.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares ended flat Friday when Australasian markets failed to follow Wall Street's positive lead overnight.

The benchmark NZX-50 ended down 0.1%, or 2 points, at 2656.39.

The index was partly weighed down by a slide in bellwether Telecom, which ended down 1.5% at NZ$2.59. The stock fell on profit-taking after reaching a two-month high earlier in the session.

The Reserve Bank is widely expected to cut the OCR by another 50 basis points to 2.50%. The central bank has cut the interest rate by 525 basis points since last July in a bid to jump start the flagging economy.

In the other direction, Air New Zealand gained 3.7% to NZ$1.11. Earlier the company said its March passenger numbers were 7.6% lower than they were a year earlier, but it was partly affected by the timing of Easter which fell in April this year.

Construction company Fletcher Building added 2.9% to NZ$6.32, gaining back some of the ground it lost this week on profit-taking. That stock also stands to gain from lower interest rates.

Whiteware maker Fisher & Paykel Appliances shed 2.2% to NZ$0.45 despite news Thursday that it was likely to have a temporary NZ$80 million debt facility extended beyond the April 30 deadline for repayment. Brokers said the stock will remain under pressure until there is some certainty about its heavy debt load.

Resins maker Nuplex gained 3.0% to NZ$0.34 after it announced it has raised an additional NZ$26.7 million through a call option under its recent underwritten rights issue.
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesGlobal cereal production will fall 3.1% to 2,217m tonnes this year, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, which said the decline was unlikely to push prices significantly higher.

In its first assessment of the upcoming harvest, the FAO said lower production in 2009-10 could largely be offset by the rise in stocks, which was expected following record output in 2008-09.

"Current economic problems could weigh negatively on demand for cereals, for animal feed and biofuels in particular, thus resulting in larger excess supply and lower prices in world markets," added the FAO, in its quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report.

The organisation said the balance between cereals supply and demand saw a "significant improvement" in 2008-09 because of a sharp rise in production, estimated at a record 2,289m tonnes.

As result, the ratio of global stocks to consumption rose to 24.6% in 2008-09, from 20.2% the previous season.

Looking forward, the FAO said it expected wheat output to fall 4.9% in 2009-10, while production of coarse grains, such as corn, would drop 3.7%. However, rice output was forecast to rise 0.7%.

"Farmers' planting decisions have been influenced by reduced producer price prospects, while input prices remain relatively high," said the FAO, which noted that some farmers could switch to growing oilseeds, such as soyabeans, which are cheaper to produce.

However, the surge in cereal stocks has yet to have a meaningful impact on domestic food prices in developing countries and the FAO warned that this was "affecting access to food of large numbers of low-income vulnerable populations".

Prices for food staples remained higher than a year ago in 78% of developing countries and were still at record highs in some parts of the world. "Most affected are sub-Saharan African countries," said the FAO.

Agricultural commodity prices in developing countries have stayed persistently high, even though international benchmark prices for wheat, rice, corn and soyabeans have fallen up to 50% from last year's record levels.

Analysts attribute higher prices in developing countries to poor domestic crops, currency movement and difficulties importing staples owing to tight trade finance.

In Chicago on Thursday, CBOT May soyabeans rose 8½ cents to $10.54½ a bushel after more evidence of rising demand for US exports in the government's weekly sales update.

The US Department of Agriculture said that, in the week to April 16, exporters sold 617,100 tonnes of soyabeans for delivery before September 1 and an additional 824,200 tonnes for subsequent shipment.

CBOT May wheat rose 12¾ cents to $5.29½ a bushel amid concern that flooding could stop spring wheat planting across 1.2m acres in North Dakota. Spring wheat prices have been rising strongly on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange in recent days.

CBOT May corn gained 4 cents to $3.77½ a bushel, also helped by strong weekly export sales.

Gold regained the $900-an- ounce level, up 1.9% to $906.20, helped by Dollar weakness and improving physical demand from India.

Crude oil prices were range-bound with ICE June Brent up 30 cents to close at $50.11 a barrel and Nymex June West Texas Intermediate added 77 cents a barrel to $49.62.

The Royal Bank of Scotland cut its crude price forecasts with Brent expected to average $56.10 a barrel in 2009, down from a previous forecast of $80 a barrel. For 2010, RBS said it expected Brent to recover to $75, compared with an earlier forecast of $76.25.

"Opec's production restraint will create a tighter market, which we believe will progressively lift oil prices this year, although the rate of recovery should be somewhat slower than previously assumed," said RBS.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 Sterling came under fire this week after the poor state of UK public finances was confirmed in the Budget.

Meanwhile, the government's economic growth projections met sneering derision from opposition parties, economists and market strategists alike.

The Pound's losses were capped, however, as equity markets continued to rally this week and sentiment, though becoming more fragile, continued to favour risk.

On Budget day on Wednesday, the UK government shocked markets with the announcement it was to issue a record £220bn gilts in the current financial year. It added that by 2014, UK debt would reach 79% of gross domestic product.

The UK ran huge deficits when times were good and the only way it can finance new spending is by printing money, with the obvious consequence of watering down its value.

The chancellor's forecast that the economy would contract by 3.5% this year, then steady off and rise by 1.25% next year and by 3.5% from 2011, was met with caution.

The scepticism appeared to be borne out by Friday's data showing a 1.9% slump in growth in the first quarter. This far exceeded the 1.5% decline expected by the market and was the sharpest quarterly drop in 20 years, meaning that on an annual basis GDP contracted by 4.1%.

A contraction of only 3.5% this year as outlined in the Budget on Wednesday seems now to be wishful thinking from the chancellor.

The Pound fell 2.34% over the week against the Euro to £0.9028 and by 2.85% against the Yen to Y142.57.

Against the Dollar, however, the Pound's weekly fall was only 0.81% to $1.4677, as the US currency remained prone to periodical selling depending on investors' appetite for risk.

Equity markets were a little more turbulent, but many advanced over the week, encouraging some risk. The Dollar's weekly fall against the Euro was 1.55% to $1.3247, and versus the Yen it was 2% lower at Y97.18.

Some emerging market currencies also found strength towards the end of the week. On Friday alone, the Turkish Lira rose 1.89% and the Hungarian Forint added 2.4% against the US currency.

There were interest rate cuts this week from the Bank of Canada and Sweden's Riksbank.

Canada's Dollar was down more than 2% by Wednesday after the central bank cut its main rate to 0.25%, leaving market observers with the notion it would drive directly into quantitative easing.

The currency's recovery was swift, however, when on Thursday the bank announced a "prudent" approach, saying that it would not immediately seek to implement unconventional policy until it had seen if measures taken already had an impact.

Against its US counterpart, the Canadian Dollar recovered to stand relatively unchanged on the week at C$1.2083.

The Riksbank's cut of 50 basis points to 0.5% came as more of a surprise to the many expecting a 75bp cut. The Krona rose by 3.95% against the Dollar to SKr8.1174 and by 2.48% to SKr10.75 versus the Euro.

The Swiss Franc strengthened significantly against the Dollar on Friday, for the second day in a row, and the pair closed the week 250 pips lower. The pair dropped another 100 pips on Friday in what seemed to be a carryover from Thursday's trade after central bank Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand made no mention of additional currency interventions, saying that patience was required to evaluate how current measures will help the economy. The pair closed Friday's trade below the 1.1400 level.

As was the case on Thursday, higher equity markets and rising gold prices aided in the strengthening of the Australian Dollar. The pair gained 80 pips on the day, closing above the 0.7200 level. Rising equities led to an increase in risk appetite and traders continued to move into higher yielding assets as the demand for safety decreased. For the week, the pair closed flat after erasing a 280 pip loss sustained at the start of the week.

And closing currencies out, as always here in China with the RMB. On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar closed at CNY6.8273, down from Thursday's close of CNY6.8297. It traded between CNY6.8265 and CNY6.8275.

The Dollar-RMB central parity rate was set at 6.8273 Friday, down from 6.8295 Thursday. That was the lowest fixing level since 26 November, when it was set at 6.8272. For most of the sessions since then, it has been set between 6.8300 and 6.8400.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's RMB climbed to a one-month high after the People's Bank of China set the strongest reference rate since November, bolstering confidence the government won't seek depreciation to aid exporters.

The central bank fixed the central parity rate higher for a third day as ICE's Dollar Index, a gauge of strength in the greenback, dropped to its lowest in a week. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets and Morgan Stanley have all raised economic growth forecasts for China this week on signs a 4 trillion RMB ($586 billion) stimulus package is working.

The currency rose to 6.8265 per Dollar, before trading at 6.8269 as of 11:41 a.m. in Shanghai, compared with 6.8299 Thursday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. It's gained 0.08% this week, the best performance in a month.

Pacific Investment Management Co. Friday recommended buying the RMB to benefit from long-term weakening in the US Dollar. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six trading partners, has dropped 0.1% this month, set for a second monthly loss.

The RMB is allowed to trade by up to 0.5% against the Dollar either side of the so-called central parity rate, which was set at 6.8273 Friday.

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China has added 454 metric tons of gold to its reserves since 2003 through domestic purchases and refining scrap, the official Xinhua News reported, citing Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Total gold reserves now stand at 1,054 tons, it said. The country has the world's biggest foreign-exchange reserves at $1.95 trillion as of March 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The foreign exchange reserves were $286 billion at the end of December 2002.

Gold gained 0.6% to $909.58 an ounce on the strength of this.

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China Cosco plans to cancel or postpone some of its vast portfolio of ship orders, scotching speculation that the state-controlled shipping line might be forced to increase its order book to support China's shipyards.

The company, the world's biggest operator of dry bulk ships, announced its plans on Thursday alongside results showing pre-tax profits fell from Rmb26.1bn in 2007 for to Rmb15.7bn ($2.3bn) in 2008, on revenue up to Rmb131bn from Rmb112bn.

Many observers had expected Cosco to take on some of the orders for ships placed at Chinese shipyards likely to be cancelled as shipping markets suffer a severe downturn.

China is the world's second-biggest shipbuilder after Korea and Cosco is a force in both dry bulk and container shipping.

Most analysts believe owners ordered far too many dry bulk and container ships during the boom that ended last year.

As long ago as October, Paul Slater, a veteran shipping industry observer, had compared contemporary China with 1970s Japan, where Japanese owners took over tanker orders cancelled by foreign owners to support shipyards and increase Japan's control over its oil trade. The move depressed tanker earnings for years.

Cosco's results statement said only that the company was in negotiations with shipyards over delays and cancellations of dry bulk ships, without giving precise numbers.

The 58 ships that Cosco has on order would expand its dry bulk capacity by more than a fifth.

In container shipping, the company said it wanted to delay delivery of the largest three of the nine ships it is due to receive this year until 2010.

The lack of specifics on the dry bulk cancellations prompted scepticism from some shipping observers about whether Cosco would eventually be allowed to tear up the contracts.

From most shipowners, Thursday's announcement would have come as no surprise. It makes commercial sense for owners to cancel many existing orders following the collapse in demand for shipping and sharp falls in vessel values.

However, Cosco was in a different position as a company controlled by the Chinese government.

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Viewed from Brussels, China's importance to the world's security and economic systems has never been greater. Viewed from Beijing, the European Union's importance has rarely been smaller.

This imbalance will be on display in Prague on May 20, when EU and Chinese leaders get together for a summit. The meeting should have been held last December, but in an imperious gesture the Chinese cancelled it after Nicolas Sarkozy, France's president, showed "disrespect" by arranging talks with the Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled spiritual leader.

For the Europeans, it is something of a relief that the Chinese plan to show up in Prague. For the Chinese, it is something of an irrelevance that the summit is happening at all.

China once seemed to take the EU as an institution more seriously, largely because of its apparent potential as a counter-balance to US global hegemony.

But the world financial turmoil and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have dealt a staggering blow to the US image as an unchallenged colossus striding the world.

Moreover, the Europeans who enthusiastically embraced the notion of "balancing" the US - notably, France's Jacques Chirac and Germany's Gerhard Schröder - have left office and been replaced by more pro-US leaders. Meanwhile, the world economic crisis has catapulted China to even greater prominence in its own right.

Most importantly, the Chinese have figured out what Henry Kissinger, the 85-year-old US elder statesman, knew when he held office in the 1970s. Not only does the EU lack a single telephone number for foreign leaders to call when they want to speak to "Europe", an awful lot of Europeans, including many in the political classes, do not want it to have one.

As the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank puts it in a new report on EU-China relations: "China has learned to exploit the divisions among EU member-states.

"It treats its relationship with the EU as a game of chess, with 27 opponents crowding the other side of the table and squabbling about which piece to move."

Much the same could be said, incidentally, of US and Russian attitudes to the EU. But in the final resort the US is Europe's ally, whilst the Europeans are able to use the channel of Nato as well as the EU to conduct their relationship with Russia.

In China's case, some policymakers in Brussels permitted themselves the hope, after an EU-China summit in Beijing in November 2007, that China would deal with the EU on a more equal footing. The summit had agreed to set up a "high-level mechanism" for the discussion of economic and trade issues, a structure designed to resemble the fairly successful framework used for cabinet-level US-Chinese negotiations.

Seventeen months later, European hopes of progress are disappearing. There have been disagreements over how often EU and Chinese officials should meet, and China has shown reluctance to bring its most senior policymakers to the table.

Why, indeed, should it? From the point of view of China, whose biggest trading partner is now the EU, the mammoth €169bn trade surplus that it notched up with the bloc last year suggests that there is no pressing need for change.

For the Europeans, however, matters stand differently. The EU often bleats that its economic policies were not responsible for the "global imbalances" that contributed to the world economic crisis. But its trade relationship with China is about as unbalanced as one can imagine, and there is a lopsided quality to the political relationship, too.

The primary responsibility rests with France, Germany and the UK, the EU's "Big Three". Each cannot resist the temptation to cuddle up to Beijing in the hope it will be adopted as "China's favourite European".

This was painfully obvious during the spats with China over whether European leaders have the right to meet the Dalai Lama without Beijing screaming blue murder.

On every occasion when France, Germany and the UK had the opportunity to stick up for each other, they preferred to look the other way - "in effect, seeking to capitalise on each other's misfortune", as the think-tank report observes.

Vladimir Lenin, founder of the Soviet Union, once said that "the capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them". These days, it is China selling the rope and a disunited Europe that is in danger of hanging.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision will garner most of the market's attention next week as strategists anticipate further quantitative easing measures.

The Federal Reserve took historic steps on March 18 when it announced that it would purchase $300 billion in longer-term Treasuries. In total, the Fed said it would expand its balance sheet by $1.2 trillion.

Bond markets have come full circle since the previous Fed meeting and there are expectations from some traders that the Fed will once again step in to keep 10-year yields below the key level of 3.00%.

I'm not expecting the Fed to further expand its balance sheet, which will disappoint bond markets.

I think there are natural forces that the Fed does not think are worth fighting. But they do think it is worth restraining. Just the threat that the Fed will jump in and purchase Treasuries will contain the rise in yields. I could see 10-year yields rising to 3.08% following the meeting.

Although the FOMC interest rate decision will attract most of the market's attention next week, the advance reading of U.S first-quarter GDP will have some market impact. Expectations are already extremely low and a decline of more than 5.0% is not going to change the overall economic picture.

I don't think the data will show anything new but traders will still focus on the numbers.

Market participants can also expect another big week for corporate first-quarter earnings - the impact of which will be somewhat muted. Most of the earnings results released during the week will be second-tier anyway - but expect them to be 'ramped-up' in their true value.

I think the tone has been set for the earning seasons. I think it is going to be tough for earnings to drive equities higher and yet it should be all about the economic data next week, let's just see how much relevance is placed on what would otherwise be 'mute' reports.

Economists will be focused on the upcoming European Commission (EC)'s economic sentiment survey for confirmation that the worst of the Euro zone recession is over and that the rate of economic decline will slow in the second quarter.

One of the key indicators for next week will be the EC surveys, given that we've seen some signs of improvement from the other surveys lately - by this, I mean the surprise in the German PMIs, the ZEW and the Ifo.

While there is the possibility that economic sentiment comes in stronger than expected, the deteriorating labour market could drag down the consumer sentiment component, thus limiting potential improvements in overall confidence.

Also, the EC surveys have tended to lag behind the PMIs more than in the past and this is another reason to think that sentiment might not pick up as much as bulls are hoping for.

Ahead of the first estimate for Euro zone inflation in April scheduled for Thursday, consumer prices could see a temporary uptick for the month.

However, any growth in prices would unlikely be prolonged because whilst there have been a few sectors that might temporarily hold it up, I think we're still heading towards zero probably around the middle of this year.

So to this end, any sort of temporary blip higher in the inflation numbers in April, I don't think will have any material impact.

To the AsiaPac' Region for next week, where there will be a slew of key releases out of Japan, including industrial production, unemployment and inflation results. The Bank of Japan will also hold its monetary policy meeting.

Industrial production should improve in March from several consecutive record-high declines. A small rise in March would be consistent with the improvement in the business surveys and the stabilization in the export data.

The general consensus among economists is for industrial production to climb 0.8% against a 9.4% drop the month prior, although forecasts range from an 8.0% decline to a 4.3% increase.

Japan's unemployment report is expected to reveal a continuous climb in the unemployment rate, this time from 4.4% to 4.5%. Japan's unemployment rate, however, is much lower than that of its international peers, such as the United States, with an 8.5% unemployment rate, and Spain, with a quarterly jobless rate of 17.36%.

Meanwhile, Japanese inflation is expected to continue leveling off. Core CPI is expected to turn negative and fall 0.2% year-over-year in March after a flat reading the month prior.

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is expected to yield few substantial policy moves. The Bank's target rate has been sitting at 0.10% for some time, as the bank moves to buy up commercial paper, Japanese government bonds and other assets to get credit markets flowing.

However, market participants are watching the Japanese government and its multi-trillion Yen stimulus plan to boost the ailing economy. Many economists say Japan's economic suffering is almost entirely due to overseas pressure, in which case the country would simply have to wait out the global recession.

Turning to New Zealand's central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is forecast to cut rates by 50 basis points to 2.50%, pushing onward with an aggressive rate-cutting cycle.

All told, another week ahead of 'mystery, ambiguity and spin' surrounding those bank stress tests and a distinct probability that we'll start to see the rot setting into equity markets at some stage next week.
 
Finally, on a lighter note.  For those of you that still believe 'imitation is a form of flattery', take a look Here at what happened at this week's Shanghai Auto Show 2009 - only in China!
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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