Financial Page International

26 September 2009 - Global Markets Review

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
Here's a thought this week: one Australian Dollar equaling one US Dollar within the next six months?

With risk appetite in the market on the up, demand for the "riskier" Australian Dollar has found strong support, and traders have sold the greenback in favour of its higher yield.

Following a raft of upward revisions of the Aussie Dollar's outlook by major banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this week, I actually believe this is a real probability (as opposed to possibility).

Over the past six months, the Australian Dollar has gained 20% in value against the US currency, as investors have sought to move their funds out of the Dollar and into higher-yielding assets.

With Australia the sole major economy to escape entering a recession (so far), its stimulus measures were far less invasive than other nations, and importantly, interest rates have held at a comparatively high rate of 3.00% (whereas the UK and EU rates are held at 0.5% and 1.00% respectively.)

If parity is achieved, it will be the first time in nearly 30 years that the Australian Dollar has equaled the US Dollar in value. It last came close in July 2008, when it hit 0.97 AUD to 1 USD.

So is the Aussie Dollar's strength set to continue?

The Australian Dollar's strength has, in part, come from the economy's continued outperformance over other nations, but there will soon be a time when the other nations will start to catch up. Interest rates in the Eurozone, the US, and even the UK are unlikely to remain at record lows into 2011, and as their respective recoveries gather pace, investors will begin to buy into other assets, which would bring the price back down.

A one to one price could come about by Q2 2010, depending on when the Reserve Bank of Australia raises rates, however, this would be unlikely to continue far past the end of the year as other economies stabilize.

But food for thought if you are looking at short-term currency plays.

Markets this week - a little later than expected (try 2 months later) started to feel the full force of the 'over-plays' that have driven the markets skywards since March of this year.

We had to see consolidation and 'realism' taking shape at some point (at least I for one felt we did) and this week we have seen a smattering - a little, little smattering - of common sense prevailing.

Let's face it, new homes sales down, durable goods orders down, even by today's standards of 'Uber-hype' and 'reckless spin', markets could not have risen on the back of those figures.

But sadly, they hardly tailed off massively either with US Markets just shedding a tad less than 0.5% - hardly a correction in the making.

But looking at the movements now, the plays across the board (even here in Asia) I feel that markets are starting to realise that they have gotten ahead of themselves and that correction, albeit a slow one, will kick in from hereon in for the next couple of months - maybe even extending through the remainder of the year.

You know me, never afraid to call a bottom, I'm equally not afraid to call a 'top' and I think we'll see the Dow at 7,500 again before we see it hit 10,000.

Strong prediction of a correction to come?  Not at all, I have always said we need a correction and this is the extent that I see it going - and even then, this is just a 22% correction from where we are now, hardly a 'calamity' given the gains of the past six months.

On to the numbers for the week that was:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryWall Street on Friday made its biggest weekly loss since July after a surprise drop in the sale of durable goods prompted a sell-off in the industrials sector.

New orders for long-lasting goods, from fighter jets to washing machines, fell 2.4% in August, adding to investor concerns over the pace of economic recovery.

Analysts had been expecting a modest rise of 0.4% compared to a 4.8% gain in July, when car sales were boosted by the cash-for-clunkers scheme.

After opening in negative territory, stocks were lifted by data showing consumer confidence was higher than expected this month. Disappointing new home sales soon renewed investors' concerns and Wall Street gave up its fleeting gains.

The S&P 500 closed 0.6% lower at 1,044.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4% to 9,665.19 and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 2,090.92. Since last week, the S&P lost 2.3%, the Dow was down 1.6% and the Nasdaq fell 2%.

After a shaky start to the week, Wall Street hit 11-month highs on Tuesday due to the weak Dollar and rising commodity prices. As the US currency strengthened and oil sank below $70, commodity stocks pulled the market lower on Wednesday and Thursday. Poor data from the National Association of Realtors on existing home sales also hit sentiment and the Federal Reserve's policy statement left the market nervous.

This week has been the most active week for equity listings since December 2007 and analysts at JPMorgan said heavy issuance may have been weighing on equities.

Textron, the industrial conglomerate, added to the woes of the sector on Friday. The shares fell 2.5% to $17.88 after Cowen cut its rating on the stock to "neutral" from "outperform". General Electric fell 1.3% to $16.37.

Caterpillar, after closing 2% lower on Wednesday and Thursday due to falling commodity prices,fell 1.3% to $51.20. The shares had been lifted in early trading after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to "outperform" from "neutral". Homebuilders were firmly in negative territory even before the release of the home sales data.

KB Home, the Los Angeles homebuilder that targets first-time buyers, posted a narrower loss for its third quarter after cutting costs and focusing on selling smaller houses. Its chief executive said he did not expect to see any "meaningful improvement" in the US housing market in the near future. KB's shares fell 8.5% to $16.96.

The pessimism spread to KB's rivals and Toll Brothers, the luxury homebuilder, fell 1.2% to $19.96 and Beazer Homes fell 5% to $5.49.

Research In Motion, which makes BlackBerry phones, added to the losses on the Nasdaq. The group posted quarterly results just above analysts' estimates late on Thursday but gave a disappointing outlook. Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the stock to "neutral" from "buy," saying it had doubts about the company's ability to maintain market share in North America. The shares fell 17% to $68.19.

Allos Therapeutics erased early gains and was down 3.5% at $7.87. The shares had spiked after it secured approval for a drug designed to treat lymphoma. Consumer groups performed well early on as investors looked for less risky stocks. Sara Lee lifted confidence after Unilever said it had agreed to pay $1.87bn for its personal care brands. The shares gained 6.4% to $11.21.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks fell, extending the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index's biggest weekly drop since July, as worse-than-forecast data on US durable-goods orders and home sales signaled a six-month rally may have outpaced prospects for the economy.

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% to 238.95, extending this week's retreat to 2.2%.

The measure has soared 51% since March 9 as the Group of 20 nations committed about $12 trillion to revive growth and the Federal Reserve kept overnight borrowing costs near zero to unlock credit markets.

The rally has pushed the Stoxx 600's valuation to the highest level since June 2003.

GERMANY

German stocks dropped as US durable goods orders and home sales fell short of estimates, tempering a higher-than-forecast reading on consumer confidence in the world's biggest economy.

Declines were led by MAN SE, Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Thyssenkrupp AG. Solarworld AG fell after WestLB AG cut its recommendations on the shares.

Beiersdorf AG, the German maker of Nivea skin creams, and Henkel AG led advancing shares after Deutsche Bank AG recommended clients buy the stocks.

The benchmark DAX Index slipped 23.80, or 0.4%, to 5,581.41 in Frankfurt, after earlier dropping as much as 0.8% and gaining as much as 0.3%. The gauge has dropped 2.2% this week. The broader HDAX Index slid 0.5% today.

The rally since March left the DAX valued at about 48.7 times its companies' reported earnings as of Sept. 18, the highest level since December 2003, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.

The government of Chancellor Angela Merkel will seek a second term in office in national elections on Sept. 27.

ThyssenKrupp retreated 74 cents, or 3.1%, to 23.16 Euros. Deutsche Lufthansa, Europe's second-largest airline, slipped 3% to 11.81 Euros. MAN SE, Europe's third- largest truckmaker, slipped 3.9% to 57.26 Euros.

Linde AG, the world's second-biggest maker of industrial gasses, slid 1.36 Euros, or 1.8%, to 72.57 Euros. Chemical company shares are in danger of erasing some of their recent gains as the industry struggles to pull out of a slump, according to a report by Cazenove.

Beiersdorf rose 2.2% to 39.23 Euros. Henkel AG, the maker of Persil detergent, advanced 1.9% to 28.51 Euros as the brokerage lifted its recommendations on both stocks to "buy" from "hold."

Solarworld AG, Germany's third-largest solar company, was cut to "neutral" from "buy" at WestLB AG. The stock fell 2.4% to 16.02 Euros.

German consumer confidence rose to a 16-month high as the economic recovery boosted households' income expectations and willingness to spend.

GfK AG's sentiment index for October, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, increased to 4.3 from a revised 3.8 in September, the Nuremberg-based market-research company said in a statement today. That's the highest reading since June 2008.

Merck KGaA advanced 77 cents, or 1.1%, to 68.19 Euros. The German drug and chemicals maker was raised to "neutral" from "underweight" at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Wacker Chemie advanced 3.92 Euros, or 3.9%, to 104.89 Euros, reversing yesterday's drop. The maker of materials used in microchips was raised to "overweight" from "equal weight" at Morgan Stanley.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index slipped 19.22, or 0.5%, to 3,739.14 in Paris, for a 2.3% weekly decline. The SBF 120 Index lost 0.5% today.

Stocks erased earlier gains after US durable goods orders unexpectedly declined in August. Orders dropped 2.4%, the worst performance since January, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

Alstom, the world's biggest trainmaker, tumbled 2.2% to 50.47 Euros. STMicroelectronics NV, Europe's largest chipmaker, retreated 3.1% to 6.30 Euros.

Club Mediterranee jumped 1.39 Euros, or 9.5%, to 16.04 Euros, its highest level since November. French designer Christian Audigier could partner with Bernard Tapie to bid for Club Mediterranee, French monthly magazine L'Expansion reported.

Delfingen Industry advanced 34 cents, or 3.6%, to 9.78 Euros, its highest level in a month. The automotive cable maker will get 3 million Euros from a fund set up by Renault, PSA Peugeot Citroen and the French state.

Groupe Flo climbed 10 cents, or 2.8%, to 3.70 Euros, rebounding from three days of losses. The restaurant chain and catering outlet operator said it raised 20.2 million Euros ($30 million) selling new shares in order to reduce debt.

Imerys slid 54 cents, or 1.4%, to 38.92 Euros, dropping for a third day. UBS AG cut its recommendation on shares of the processor of minerals to "neutral" from "buy."

Nicox gained 17 cents, or 1.8%, to 9.77 Euros after two days of losses. The company filed a new drug application for naproxcinod with the US Food and Drug Administration.

Securidev sank 1.51 Euros, or 7.7%, to 18, declining for a second day. The maker of conventional and electronic locks predicted a 15% decline in full- year revenue after recording a 460,000-Euro net loss for the first half. That compares with profit of 5.41 million Euros a year earlier.

Vallourec slid 3.85 Euros, or 3.2%, to 116.40, falling for a second day. The stock was cut to "neutral" from "buy" at Bank of America.

BELGIUM

In Brussels the Bel 20 closed out the week at 2,462.44, a Friday dip of 0.34%.

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker is restarting production lines at its plant in Liege, Belgium, to meet rising orders.

Fortis, the insurer that sold all banking units in October to avert a collapse plans to make an offer for all the outstanding debt issued under its Euro Medium Term Note program. Fortis Finance NV plans to buy back the notes at face value plus accrued interest.

Separately, the insurer holds an investor day and plans to give an update on its strategy.

Fortis will resume paying a dividend, push for partnerships in Europe and Asia and close or divest fringe activities, the Belgian insurer has determined a year after its carve-up.

Fortis, which needs to find a new name by May 2011, said on Friday it would pay a regular cash dividend of between 40 and 50% of the net profit of its insurance activities. That was 228 million Euros ($335.8 million) in the first half.

The financial services group, pared down to a pure insurer after a state-led break-up, said all businesses had to show they could reach a critical size, contribute to earnings and generate returns exceeding cost of equity -- currently 11%.

Chief Executive Bart De Smet told a conference call that Fortis would focus predominantly on Europe and Asia, which represent 70% of the world's life insurance market and 53% of the non-life.

'We will use our recognised expertise and partnership skills to grow further in a number of markets in these two key areas,' he said. 'Fortis does not exclude selective acquisitions.'

Belgium's market regulator CBFA said on Tuesday it would extend its ban on short selling of financial stocks at Euronext Brussels for an indefinite period.

The rules were introduced a year ago and state that anyone who sells shares in financial institutions must be in possession of these shares or have borrowed them.

The rules would no longer apply to Dutch group ING, which is listed in the Netherlands but also operates in Belgium, the regulator said.

Dexia, KBC and Fortis are financial institutions listed on Euronext Brussels.

The ban was initially introduced for three months last September after regulators around the world curbed short-selling of financial shares.

It has now been extended for a fourth time.

Shares of Belgium conglomerate Solvay climbed higher in European trading Thursday on reports that US partner Abbott Laboratories offered at least $6 billion for the company's drug division.

The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday that Abbott made an offer between $5.9 billion and $7.4 billion for Solvay Pharmaceuticals, citing people familiar with the deal. Belgium drugmaker UCB is also considering a bid, according to the Journal.

A bidding war between Abbott and other drugmakers could help Solvay reap a higher price for its drug business, which was put up for sale in April.

Abbott already holds US marketing rights for Solvay's Trilipix and TriCor, drugs which raise "good" HDL cholesterol while reducing triglycerides and "bad" LDL cholesterol.

A company spokesman declined to comment on the reported offer, but said Abbott has laid out a strategy for growth based on small to mid-size acquisitions.

Shares in Mobistar, Belgium's second-biggest mobile phone operator, traded up as much as 6.9% early on Friday, after majority owner France Telecom's (FTE.PA) CFO said consolidation would make sense in Belgium.

Chief Financial Officer Gervais Pellissier told Reuters in an interview late on Thursday that Switzerland, Belgium, and Portugal were countries where partnerships or deals would make sense, to alleviate intense competition.

THE NETHERLANDS

Amsterdam's AEX finished Friday's session at 305.63, a decline of almost 1%, down 0.94% for the day.

 Unilever, the maker of Dove soap, agreed to buy Sara Lee Corp.'s personal-care and European detergent unit for 1.28 billion Euros ($1.88 billion), gaining Sanex shower gel in its biggest purchase in nine years.

Unilever, based in London and Rotterdam, will pay cash for the business, which makes Duschdas and Radox soap and had sales of more than 750 million Euros for the year ending June 2009, according to a statement today. Sara Lee, which has been shedding units to focus on coffee and food, said the proceeds would help it buy back up to $1 billion in stock.

The purchase is the largest by Chief Executive Officer Paul Polman since he took the reins at Unilever at the start of the year. He focused the company on winning back cash-strapped shoppers and boosting sales volumes by cutting prices, and was rewarded as the company unexpectedly posted volume growth in western Europe in the second quarter.

The deal is Unilever's biggest acquisition since buying SlimFast Foods Co. and Ben & Jerry's Homemade Inc. for a combined $2.6 billion in April 2000. Unilever's brands besides food include Vaseline and Axe deodorants.

"This transaction builds on our portfolio in Western Europe and also in Asia," Polman said in the statement. "The Sara Lee brands enjoy strong consumer recognition, offer significant growth potential and are an excellent fit with Unilever's existing business."

Unilever's offer price values Sara Lee's body-care operations, which also include Zwitsal baby shampoo and Zendium toothpaste, at 1.7 times annual revenue. In 2006, L'Oreal SA bought Body Shop International Plc for 1.5 times its sales.

The transaction needs regulatory approval and the companies will consult with European employee works councils, Unilever said today.

To entice cash-strapped European consumers, Polman has also increased ad spending, boosted promotions and accelerated new product introductions since he took over as CEO.

Unilever is taking "quicker actions where we're feeling that our brands are out-positioned or at a disadvantage, where we're losing share," Polman said in May. He said he's fighting an "inherited assumption that the company will not grow."

A downward revision in second-quarter growth, a deeper decline in business confidence and a further dip in consumer spending all pointed on Thursday to more pain in months to come for the struggling Dutch economy.

Even though the government recently improved its forecasts for growth and unemployment in 2010, Thursday's data made clear it would be a long road to that recovery.

Statistics Netherlands says second-quarter GDP declined 1.1% from the first quarter and 5.4% from a year earlier. Those figures were worse than the initially reported 0.9% sequential decline and 5.1% annual decline it reported a month previously.

Total consumer spending in July fell 2.1%, better than the revised 2.9% decline in June. However, spending on food, beverage and tobacco declined sharply month-over-month, even as all other categories improved.

September business confidence was -9.8 points, worse than the -9.3 points in August. Order books fell in all areas except semi-finished goods.

The only slight bright spot was manufacturing output, which rose 0.4% in July after an upwardly revised decline of 0.2% in June.

That is broadly in line with the general improvement in the NEVI Purchasing Managers Index, which showed industry growth in August after 14 months of contraction. Manufacturers have said they are seeing 'robust' growth in new orders and an accompanying rise in output.

On Sept. 15 the Dutch government published its 2010 budget and macroeconomic forecasts, projecting a flat economy in 2010 with unemployment of 8%.

In June it had forecast GDP contraction of 0.5% with unemployment of 9.5%.

ING will sell its 51% stake in a wealth management joint venture to partner Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) for 1.1 billion Euros ($1.6 billion) as the Dutch group slims down through asset sales.

ING Groep NV, which received 10 billion Euros ($14.7 billion) in state aid last October and a 22 billion Euro government asset guarantee in January, is offloading assets to raise 6-8 billion Euros as part of a global restructuring plan announced in April.

The deal announced on Friday is separate from the pending sale of ING's Asian and Swiss private banking assets, which sources have told Reuters is not likely until next month. That sale is expected to fetch slightly more than the ANZ deal..

ING said it would book a net profit of 300 million Euros on the deal, which will also free up 900 million Euros of capital.

AUSTRIA

The ATX in Vienna ended a volatile week on 2,536.81, down 0.45%.

Austria's economy will be hurt badly by the global economic crisis in 2009 and contract moderately in 2010, according to the latest country-assessment by the International Monetary Fund, published Monday.

Austria's economy is expected to contract by 4% in 2009, and 0.3% in 2010, the IMF said in its latest consultation for Austria.

"Following several years of strong growth performance, Austria's economy is now experiencing the full impact of the global financial crisis and the decline in world trade," the IMF said, adding that while a recovery is expected to start in 2010, "the outlook is uncertain".

The IMF's outlook is gloomier than the latest available from Austria's main forecaster, the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, or Wifo. In June, Wifo forecast Austria's 2009 GDP to contract by 3.4%, and a moderate growth of 0.5% for 2010.

IMF's outlook was unchanged from its preliminary country consultation report published June 31.

The IMF also stressed Monday the need for Austria's government to start focusing on spending cuts to tame the country's debt, which has been boosted significantly by fiscal stimulus packages in the past year.

Austria's budget for 2009 and 2010 include fiscal stimulus measures amounting to 1.5% of GDP in 2009 and an additional 0.4% of GDP for 2010. The IMF estimates this will bring Austria's budget deficit to 4.2% of GDP by the end of 2009, and 5.6% at the end of 2010. Austria's 2008 budget deficit was of 0.5% of GDP.

Excluding consolidation measures, deficits are projected to remain above 3% of GDP throughout the forecast horizon, the IMF said.

The fund praised the Austrian government for the "sizeable and timely fiscal stimulus measures," but also cautioned that "the stimulus in combination with large automatic stabilizers and financial sector support will result in a sharp rise in public debt."

General government debt is seen to come to 70.2% of GDP for 2009, 75.5% for 2010, and above 80% by 2012, IMF said.

It encouraged "authorities to work towards an early agreement on plans for fiscal consolidation, so that implementation can start when the economy recovers."

Austrian property developer Immoeast swung to a first-quarter net profit thanks to solid assets and revenues from its newly-acquired Immoaustria unit, the group said on Thursday.

Immoeast, which had been hit by the collapse in Eastern European property prices, said net profit in the three months to July was 110.2 million Euros ($162 million) after a net loss of 52.6 million Euros a year ago.

Net asset value was 7.25 Euros per share by end-July, up from 7.09 Euros at end-April.

Immoeast, which specialises mainly in emerging Europe property markets, said it wants to be profitable this fiscal year and believes it will reach the goal.

"The aim is a positive result, which we will be able to show," Chief Executive Eduard Zehetner told a news conference.

The company said earlier on Thursday that first-quarter results had especially benefited from Immoaustria, a unit which mainly owns Austrian properties and which Immoeast took over from its parent Immofinanz in March.

Immoeast, of which Immofinanz owns a majority stake, bought the Immoaustria unit in a 1.5 billion Euro asset transfer announced in March, which helped ease worries about the parent company's troubled finances.

"But even excluding Immoaustria the result is still positive," Zehetner said. This was because of drastic cost savings.

Shares rose sharply in early in the session but later pared gains to trade flat at 4.02 Euros by 1155 GMT.

Both companies were on the brink of collapse in the last business year because of a severe liquidity squeeze.

The two groups, set up by closely held Constantia Privatbank, were hit last year not only by the collapse in property prices, but also because of dealings between themselves and Constantia that are being probed by state prosecutors.

The group has been in talks with Constantia's former owner over claims Immoeast holds against them that are related to those dealings. But the talks had still not make enough progress to settle the issue by the end of September, Zehetner said.

SWITZERLAND

The SMI in Zurich ended trading Friday at 6,236.91, a decline of 0.61% for the session.

Julius Baer Group Ltd., the new Swiss private bank being created by splitting its namesake parent, said Friday it plans to expand its business through acquisitions.

The private banking market is experiencing increasing mergers & acquisitions activity as many banks are looking to dispose of non-core assets to free up capital and replenish their balance sheets, Chief Executive Boris Collardi said in a summary of a presentation to investors.

Julius Baer with its strong and liquid balance sheet is in a good position to make deals, and is considering takeovers in Switzerland and abroad, Collardi added.

The establishment of a pure-play private bank comes at a time when the prospects for offshore banking - the management of funds for clients who reside in a different country than the bank - are shrinking due to regulatory pressures.

Julius Baer is better positioned than its many privately-held rivals to do business in an environment where Swiss private banks have to offer more than secrecy to attract clients, analysts say.

The bank has built a big presence in Asia, where economic growth is leading to the emergence of a new class of super-rich individuals who are seeking banking advice to manage their wealth. It also set up branches in Germany and Italy to be closer to clients, and to retain those who decide to move their wealth back to the countries they live in.

The Zurich-based bank also wants to hire more client advisors to fuel growth. It is considering hiring up to 50 new bankers a year. On June 30, it had 636 client advisors.

Collardi didn't say if Julius Baer was still considering buying ING Groep NV's (ING) private banking assets. A person familiar with the situation said earlier this week that the Swiss bank is no longer after ING's private banking assets in Asia, but is still in the running for its European assets.

Among its new targets, the private bank aims to attract 4% to 6% in net new money each year - a goal that was deemed modest by analysts. Bigger Swiss rival Credit Suisse (CS) said earlier this week that it wants to attract 6% in new funds from clients each year.

On June 30, assets under management amounted to 142 billion Swiss francs ($138 billion), while total client assets were CHF210 billion. It reported a pro forma net profit of CHF246 million.

Julius Baer Holding had disclosed its plan to separate the private banking and asset management businesses into two independent companies in May. The two companies will be individually listed on the Swiss stock exchange, starting Oct. 1.

The private bank will have a Tier 1 ratio - a measure of balance sheet strength - of 19%, once $300 million in proceeds from the recent initial public offering of US fund manager Artio Global Investors (ART) is recorded. That is above the bank's 12% target, but Baer wants to keep the excess for the time being - saying it doesn't plan share buybacks - to be able to finance acquisitions if opportunities arise.

Julius Baer shares fell on disappointment about the private bank's modest targets.

Switzerland on Thursday edged closer to escaping a "grey list" of countries not meeting international taxation standards.

In a demonstration of the effectiveness of measures to prize open "tax havens", Switzerland has said it would soon reach the 12 revised double taxation agreements required to escape the list.

Since March, when Bern decided to accept transparency standards established by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Switzerland has embarked on a diplomatic race to renegotiate its treaties in record time.

A list that included France and the UK this week gained the US, which is leading efforts to improve Switzerland's transparency. Hans-Rudolf Merz, Switzerland's finance minister, said this week that a 12th tax treaty should be signed "in the next few days". That would mean Switzerland would join those countries that have "substantially implemented" the internationally agreed standard, the OECD said on Thursday.

The Swiss government's change of tack involved dropping an arcane, but crucial, distinction between tax fraud and tax evasion. In its traditional double taxation agreements, Bern had offered to help foreign tax authorities track down tax fraud - a criminal offence in Switzerland - but withheld assistance in cases of tax evasion, which is a civil offence under Swiss law.

The distinction was ill-understood abroad and often seen as a smokescreen to protect the rigorous bank secrecy that has made Switzerland the favoured place for private offshore assets.

The Swiss government was forced to adjust after rising international pressure for greater transparency from the G20.

Alistair Darling, the UK chancellor of the exchequer, called for the G20 to draw up a "blacklist" of countries whose regulatory systems pose a risk to the world's financial system.

"Just as we have been tackling tax havens, we also need to go after those countries that offer regulatory havens where mainstream regulators here and in America and in Europe can't get the information they need," Mr Darling said on Thursday.

SWEDEN

The OMX in Stockholm rounded off a hit/miss week at 899.87, a drop of 0.22% for the day.

Swedish clothing retailer Hennes & Mauritz reported a 4% rise in its fiscal third-quarter profit on Thursday, but sales figures fell short of expectations, particularly over the last month.

The company said third-quarter ending Aug. 31 profit rose to 3.4 billion Swedish Kroner ($504 million), from 3.3 billion Kroner a year ago.

Revenue for the period rose 13% to 23.5 billion Kronor, short of the 24.21 billion Kronor expected from analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires. In local currencies, the increase was 3%.

In August, sales fell 3% from a year earlier in local currencies, while comparable-store sales fell by 11%, versus expectations of a 3.8% fall in total sales and 6.1% fall in comparable sales.

The company gave no outlook, but said it was increasing its expansion target for the full year from 225 to approximately 240 stores. The group opened 116 stores and closed 14 during the first nine months of the year. It also plans to launch online sales in the US in the autumn 2010.

H&M has 1,800 stores across 34 markets, with its biggest market in Germany, and its second-leading market is the US

Europe has been enduring tough economic times, with its biggest economy, Germany, no exception and recovery there still viewed as fragile. The US, as well, has endured a rough economic period. See special report on German elections

"Weak sales were mainly due to continued recession with restrained consumption, tough price competition and unusually warm weather in many parts of Europe in the end of the quarter. During the recession the customers have become more attracted to markdowns," the company said.

Swedish telecom operator TeliaSonera said Tuesday Estonia's government has accepted its cash offer for the shares in Estonian operator Eesti Telekom.

The government accepted the deal after the parties agreed for Eesti Telekom to pay an extra dividend for 2008 and set up a dividend policy for the coming three years, TeliaSonera said.

"We welcome the government's decision to accept the offer and are satisfied with the agreement we have reached," said TeliaSonera's Chief Financial Officer Per-Arne Blomquist.

Earlier Tuesday, Eesti Telekom proposed an extra dividend of 964 million Estonian krooni ($91 million) and a dividend policy for 2009-2011, TeliaSonera said.

TeliaSonera, which on Sept. 21 owned 61% of the shares in Eesti Telekom is offering EEK93 per share in the company, it said, adding that the acceptance period will end on Oct. 9.

The Stockholm-based company on Aug. 24 said it would make a cash offer worth around $468 million for the shares it did not already own in Eesti Telekom. It also announced an offer worth around $221 million for outstanding shares in Baltic operator TEO LT.

Sweden's economy will recover from the impact of the global financial crisis starting from next year, according to a draft Autumn budget plan released on Monday.

Sweden's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to score a 0.6-percent growth in 2010, 0.2% higher than the forecast in Spring this year.

The country's GDP is expected to increase by 3.1% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012 respectively, said a statement of the Ministry of Finance.

The budget contains new measures to tackle the recession following the financial crisis. A total of 32 billion Kronor (about 4.4 billion US Dollars) will be used for stimulus efforts for 2010 and a further 24 billion Kronor (3.3 billion Dollars) for2011.

The Swedish economy, highly dependent on exports, has been severely hampered by the global economic downturn. It is estimated that Sweden's GDP will fall by 5.2% during 2009, the sharpest drop since the World War II, said the statement.

The government projects jobless rate to rise to 11.4% next year and to 11.6% in 2011.

DENMARK

Copenhagen's OMX brought the week to a close at 330.23, up 0.41%.

Denmark's central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.1 percentage point to a record low, reducing the difference between Danish and Euro area rates to counter the krone's strengthening against the Euro.

Nationalbanken, which uses monetary policy to keep the krone pegged to the Euro, cut the lending rate to 1.25%, narrowing the spread to the European Central Bank's benchmark to 0.25 point, the Copenhagen-based bank said in a statement on its Web site. The bank doesn't hold scheduled meetings.

The central bank boosted currency reserves by 118 billion Kroner ($23.4 billion) in the first eight months, compared with 11.6 billion Kroner in currency sales in the same period last year, after the worst of the global credit crisis eased and pressure on the krone abated. A stronger krone has allowed the bank to lower rates from an eight-year high in October, helping the domestic economy toward recovery from its worst recession in six decades.

Currency reserves rose in August by 37.6 billion Kroner to 374.1 billion Kroner. The bank will report reserves for September on Oct. 2. Since the bank's last rate cut on Aug. 27, the krone has strengthened from 7.4441 to the Euro to as strong as 7.4401 Friday to the Euro.

Scandinavia's smallest economy is struggling to emerge from its worst recession in six decades. The central bank cut its outlook for the economy on Sept. 17 and urged the government to rein in fiscal easing to avoid putting pressure on public finances.

The bank's only mandate is to support a peg to the Euro in a 2.25% band. The bank was forced to raise the key lending rate to 5.5% last October after investors turned their backs on smaller markets, threatening the peg.

Carlsberg took a beating on Thursday after its shares fell by 3.9%, following proposals to triple excise tax on beer by 2012 in Russia - the brewer's key market.

Last February, the Copenhagen-based firm, which brews Tuborg and Holsten beers, posted a 52.0% rise in 2008 operating profit before special items, boosted by the acquisition in 2008 of about nine-tenths of OAO Baltika Breweries Holdings, Russia's largest brewer. Thanks to its business in Russia, where Carlsberg has a 38.0% share of the market, the company has been outperforming the market every quarter.

But analysts fear the potential increase in excise tax could hurt Carlsberg's future profits. Late-Wednesday, the Russian government approved a 2010 budget, which includes a plan to triple the excise duty on beer from the current 3 rubles (1 cent). The changes are expected to bring an extra 65.1 billion rubles ($2.2 billion) of revenues into government coffers in 2010.

Carlsberg said it is still waiting for information on the final proposal to be sent to Russia's parliament, the Duma. But there is still room to maneuver. Carlsberg Chief Executive Jorgen Buhl Rasmussen told Forbes last month he was campaigning hard in Russia to bring the increases down as much as possible.

FINLAND

The OMX in Helsinki ended Friday's session at 6,405.56, down 0.26% for the day.

Capital supports in Finland's banking sector are strong enough to cushion it against crisis even if the economy turns clearly weaker than forecast in 2010-2011, the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority said.

"According to stress tests, the capital adequacy of banks and insurance companies would be sufficient even in case of a very severe recession over the (next) two ... years," the financial watchdog said in a report published on Friday.

It said in stress tests, financial sector firms had assessed their own economic development based on a scenario set by the watchdog and the Bank of Finland.

The scenario forecast Finnish gross domestic product to shrink 7.2% this year and 3.3% in 2010, showing only slight growth in 2011.

The Bank of Finland, due to update its forecasts next week, has estimated 2009 GDP will contract by 5% this year and 1.1% in 2010, with growth in 2011 seen at 1.5%.

Think-tank ETLA raised on Wednesday its forecast for Finland's economic growth next year, but said exports would only appreciably pick up in 2011.

The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) said in its latest forecast it now saw Finland's gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.5% in 2010, up from a forecast of zero growth given in March.

It trimmed its forecast for economic contraction this year to minus seven% from a previous -6.5%. ETLA's forecast for 2009 is more pessimistic than its peers, while its 2010 forecast is roughly on par with the average expectation.

'We don't believe in a speedy recovery (after the third quarter) because the reduction in investments will continue long into next year and the increase in unemployment will further weaken domestic consumption possibilities,' ETLA said.

'Export demand will, however, pick up a little and push the economy to slight growth by the end of (2009),' it said.

It said the export-driven Nordic country would only see growth of 5.5% in exports next year after an expected plunge of 25% this year.

'Exports will make a solid rise only in 2011, but even then the export volumes will remain significantly smaller than in 2008,' ETLA said.

NORWAY

The OBX in Oslo closed at 289.03, gains of 0.74% for the session Friday.

Norway's central bank held its main interest rate at 1.25% as expected on Wednesday but said it had considered raising rates in a new signal of looming policy tightening as the economy recovers.

The Crown surged to a 11-month high against the Euro, bolstered by prospects of rate increases as early as next month and by finance ministry comments about Norway's economic outlook being brighter now than a few months ago.

Norway suffered only a mild recession amid the global downturn and risks are shifting to potential overheating down the road as the economy regains steam -- pushing Norges Bank closer towards an exit strategy from record low rates.

'The Executive Board considered the alternative of increasing the key policy rate at Friday's meeting,' Deputy Governor Jan Qvigstad said in a statement.

Norges Bank said the Crown's appreciation would, 'in conjunction with continued low imported inflation, contribute to keeping inflation below target in the year ahead'.

It said there was risk of continued low growth in the global economy 'for a fairly long period ahead' but that Norway's economy had fared well through the financial crisis.

'It appears that unemployment will be considerably lower than expected,' it said.

The Crown hit an 11-month high versus the Euro at 8.5300 from 8.5940 before the rate announcement, on the prospects of rate increases coming sooner rather than later.

After the central bank's announcement, Finance Minister Kristin Halvorsen said the outlook for the Norwegian economy was better than a few months ago.

'The international financial crisis and the global economic downturn has hit the Norwegian economy less than most other countries, and the outlook for Norway's economy is brighter than for just a few months ago,' Halvorsen said in a statement.

DnB NOR surged 9.9% to 70.4 kroner, the biggest advance on the Stoxx 600.

The bank will become the last major Nordic lender to raise capital since the credit crisis began last year. The sale of stock to existing shareholders, supported by the bank's largest owners and underwritten by a group of lenders, will increase DnB NOR's Tier 1 capital ratio to 11.3%, the bank said.

Shares in Norwegian oil producer DNO International were up 9.1% early on Friday after Kurdistan's Foreign Minister said he believed the company would resume its operations in the Kurdish region.

DNO shares plunged as much as 55% on Thursday on fears the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) may make permanent its temporary suspension of DNO activities in northern Iraq.

Iraqi Kurdistan Foreign Minister Falah Bakir told reporters in Washington D.C. late on Thursday that he did not believe that DNO's license suspension was permanent.

"When this issue is sorted out between the Oslo Stock Exchange and DNO, I am confident they will resume," he said, adding that Kurdistan has been supportive of DNO.

SPAIN

Madrid's Ibex 35 finished Friday at 11,643.80, down 0.45% on the day.

The number of workers in Spain's black economy is growing fast as the recession destroys legal jobs, a business official said on Tuesday, while the government admitted concern about the resulting loss of tax revenue.

The number of laborers paid under the table has almost tripled in the past five years and the illicit cash economy has taken off as Spain languishes in a deep recession, said the head of the National Association of Autonomous Workers (ATA), Lorenzo Amor.

Even before the downturn, Spain's informal labor force had been expanding rapidly thanks in part to immigration from Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa, much of it illegal.

"In Spain, there are around one and a half million workers who don't pay welfare or taxes across all sectors," said the head of ATA.

Total tax fraud - which Economy Ministry workers union GESTHA estimates at Euro 25 billion ($37 billion) a year - is worrying the Socialist government as it struggles to haul back a fiscal deficit heading for 10% of gross domestic product in 2009.

"This year, the battle against tax fraud will be an important source of revenue, around 30% more than last year. Our inspectors must be even more strict and more determined," Economy Minister Elena Salgado told local radio on Tuesday.

The government does not give estimates of the number of workers in the black economy. But, since 2005, government tax inspectors have managed to claw back over Euro 27 billion from tax dodgers, the Economy Ministry said.

But the relatively robust black economy might be easing social tensions at a time when Spain's unemployment level is more than double the European Union average, Mr. Amor said.

Around one in five workers in Spain are jobless and over a million homes don't have a single household member in official, gainful employment, but the number of demonstrations has fallen to levels not seen since 2004, according to one report.

"Without condoning the practice, it's clear if Spain didn't have an informal economy, there would be unrest," Mr. Amor pointed out.

Close to 90% of the layoffs in the 12 months to June 2009 have been from the temporary work force rather than from those which hold well-protected, permanent contracts, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

"No one's offering permanent contracts right now and any job being offered is so badly paid, you may as well stay on the dole. The other option is claim while doing small jobs for cash," said out-of-work computer programmer Pablo, 35, who asked not to give his surname.

PORTUGAL

The PSI General in Lisbon ended at 2,854.96, a drop of 0.27%.

Portugal's plans for a 7.5 billion- Euro ($11.1 billion) high-speed rail network may falter if Prime Minister Jose Socrates loses the Sept. 27 elections, thwarting a project he says would rekindle the country's economy.

Socrates's main rival in the elections, Opposition Leader Manuela Ferreira Leite, wants to suspend the connection indefinitely. She and critics including Socrates's former finance minister say the line is a luxury when public and private debt is approaching 100% of gross domestic product and the economy is shrinking the most in 34 years.

"This isn't the right time for these projects, because they will absorb resources needed by the rest of the economy, by companies, by families," former Finance Minister Luis Campos e Cunha said in an interview in his office at Lisbon's New University, where he teaches economics. "We're all going to pay for it."

Vinci SA, the world's biggest builder, as well as Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA, Mota-Engil SGPS SA and Odebrecht SA, the largest in Spain, Portugal and Brazil, are among the companies bidding to build and maintain the track. The trains would link Lisbon to Oporto in northern Portugal and Madrid. Spain is already building the line from its end.

The latest poll, conducted Sept. 13 to 16, gave Socrates's Socialists a lead of 3.3 percentage points over Ferreira Leite's Social Democratic Party; the margin of error was 2.2%. That would cost Socrates the parliamentary majority he's held since 2005. Other parties back only parts of the plan, criticizing financing, or urging more spending on existing trains.

The rail link aims to cut travel time to less than three hours on the Lisbon-Madrid route from the current 9 1/2-hour overnight trip, and to 1 hour and 15 minutes on non-stop trains between Lisbon and Oporto, less than half the time for the fastest connection now between the country's two biggest cities.

Portugal's participation in the project would connect it to the growing European network of high-speed lines. Canceling the project may strain relations with Spain, Portugal's only neighbor, the prime minister argues.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index reversed losses, adding 149.34, or 0.7%, to 23,102.74 in Milan. The gauge has lost 1.6% this week.

Azimut Holding, Italy's largest independent fund manager, dropped for the first time in three days, falling 13.5 cents, or 1.6%, to 8.57 Euros. Financial-services stocks were the worst performers in Europe today, led by Julius Baer Holding AG after the wealth manager gave a strategy update.

Banca Generali, a unit of Italy's largest insurer, lost 21 cents, or 2.4%, to 8.54 Euros, the first decline this week. Banca Akros cut its rating to "accumulate" from "buy," citing the stock's recent rally.

Eni, Italy's largest oil company, rose 17 cents, or 1%, to 17.02 Euros, ending a two-day decline. Oil rose as some traders viewed this week's slump as excessive, providing an opportunity to buy contracts before rising demand triggers a rebound.

Gemina  added 1.4 cents, or 2.4%, to 59.6 cents, a fourth straight gain. Investimenti e Infrastrutture SpA, a Benetton family company that's the biggest shareholder in Gemina, will get a 40 million-Euro ($58.7 million) cash injection, Il Sole 24 Ore reported, without saying where it got the information.

The plan will help Investimenti cancel debt and invest in the restructuring of Aeroporti di Roma SpA, the operator of Rome's airports, Sole said. Gemina owns ADR.

Prysmian dropped 15 cents, or 1.2%, to 12.75 Euros, extending losses of 2.3% yesterday. Concerns over the legal proceedings in an antitrust probe of the cable market opened in Australia are still hurting the shares, said Gian Paolo Rivano, a fund manager at Gesti-Re SGR SpA in Milan.

Saipem advanced 78 cents, or 4.1%, to 19.80 Euros, snapping a two-day decline. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its price estimate on Europe's largest oil-field services contractor by market value to 32 Euros from 24.5 Euros. The brokerage kept a "neutral" rating.

Seat Pagine Gialle lost 2.8%, to 21.93 cents, taking this week's decline to 16%. Centrobanca downgrade Italy's largest publisher of phone directories to "hold" from "buy."

STMicroelectronics Europe's largest semiconductor maker, dropped for a second day, falling 19.9 cents, or 3.1%, to 6.30 Euros. The increase in market volatility prompted investors to take profit, after the stock's recent increase, said Andrea Trucchia, who works in global equity sales at Iccrea Banca in Milan.

Telecom Italia rose 1.5 cents, or 1.2%, to 1.23 Euros, a first increase in four days. Banca Akros upgraded Italy's biggest phone company to "accumulate" from "hold."

UniCredit rose for a second day this week, adding 10.5 cents, or 4.2%, to 2.63 Euros. Credit Suisse Group AG increased its price estimate on Italy's largest bank to 2.9 Euros from 2.7 Euros. The brokerage kept an "outperform" recommendation.

GREECE

The Athex Composite in Athens closed out the trading week at 2,611.56, up 0.09%.

"Greece's economy has deteriorated later and less severely than in some other Western European countries," Credit Suisse notes in a report on European Banks.

2008 real GDP growth was 2.9% and most economists forecast 2009E real GDP decline in the range of 0-1%.

"This, in our view, is likely to result in a later and less severe impact of the economic crisis on the loan quality of Greek banks compared with their peers in other European countries," it says.

The firm notes that corporate loans have faced the least deterioration so far in terms of asset quality, followed by mortgages and unsecured retail lending.

It highlights the fact that corporate loans in Greece are on many occasions secured by personal assets (including residential housing), especially in the SME segment of the market, so the consequences of corporate default are similar (and sometimes higher) than personal default adding that there has so far not been a case of any large Greek company defaulting during the current crisis.

Credit Suisse estimates that the next few quarters are likely to show similar levels of deterioration in asset quality as evidenced so far in 2009, approximately 40-50bps per quarter for the banking system.

"Recent commentary from a number of banks suggests that the pace of deterioration is slowing. Assuming the Greek economy returns to positive real GDP growth in 2010, we expect NPLs to peak at around 7-8% in 2010 and then gradually decline," it says.

Greek retail company said that in FY 08/09 sales reached 467.81m Euro compared to 403.95m Euro last year, posting an increase 15.81% y-o-y.

"Despite the difficult macroeconomic environment Jumbo stores in Greece kept their dynamics while the stores in Cyprus recorded also an increase in terms of sales. The hyper-store in Bulgaria after its first year of operation continues its exceptional performance," the company said in a statement.

During the financial year ended in June 2009 the group launched four new hyper stores in Greece and proceeded with the closure of the store in Cholargos as part of the restructure program, it noted.

Gross margin reached 54.35% from 54.44% last financial year while EBITDA reached  139.63m Euro from 125,62m Euro in FY 2007/2008 (+11.15% y-o-y), while EBITDA was improved due to constrain of expenses especially on the second half of the financial year 2008/2009.

"It is noted that the figure concerning "other income" was lower from the respective period last year as at the nine months of 2007/2008 the company had received insurance compensation amount of Euro 2.13m concerning damages from fire in Kolonos store and had also a gain of Euro 0.45m approximately from the sale of real estate," the announcement read.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsAn 18-month high for British Sky Broadcasting helped keep the FTSE100 steady on Friday.

BSkyB was in demand on defensive attractions and regulatory optimism, which led Citigroup to reiterate a "buy" recommendation.

The broker agreed with BSkyB's claims that media regulator Ofcom had made errors in its review of the pay-television market.

The profit from wholesaling premium content to competitors was about 13%, Citi said, not the 20%-plus Ofcom estimated. This provided a "glimmer of hope" that Ofcom would dilute its proposals, it said.

Citi also speculated that BSkyB could look at returning cash to shareholders if it was required to sell its stake in ITV. The Competition Appeals Tribunal rules next month on whether BSkyB can retain the 17.9% shareholding.

Shares in BSkyB rose 2.4% to 359¾p, and were the top blue-chip performer for the week.

Meanwhile, ITV closed 3.5% lower at 44¾p after refusing to meet the pay demands of prospective chief executive Tony Ball.

The FTSE100 ended up 2.93 points at 5,082.2, giving the index a 1.8% decline for the week.

Lloyds Banking Group was among the sharpest fallers amid rumours it could look to raise cash from shareholders as early as next week.

Advisers to Lloyds were said to have sounded out shareholders earlier this week about an equity issue priced at between 80p and 85p. The stock lost 3.4% to 103½p.

Tui Travel slid 3.8% to 259p ahead of a trading statement on Tuesday.

Compass, which updates on trading on the same day, added 2.4% to 359¾p after Nomura started coverage with a "buy" rating.

Cadbury edged up 0.7% to 800½p even after the company stressed its opposition to Kraft's take­over proposal. Traders noted recent gossip that Nestle had mandated a UK bank to consider options.

Unilever's deal to buy brands from Sara Lee helped others in the consumer goods sector - notably condom maker SSL International, which gained 3.1% to 618½p. Unilever ended flat at £17.35.

Petrofac, the oil services group, lost 2.4% to 951½p after Merrill Lynch said the stock was "priced for perfection offering no room for disappointment".

A Goldman Sachs note forecasting a wave of frontier exploration focused attention on the oil sector. Its favoured stocks in the UK included BG Group, up 1.7% to £10.85, and Soco International, ahead 2.1% to £14.02.

Tullow Oil led the sector, rising 3.2% to £11.75. House broker RBS was positive after a meeting with Anadarko, Tullow's partner in Africa. News of a dry well in Norway sent Dana Petroleum down 2.8% to £13.82.

Among the mid-caps, Heritage Oil was down 2.9% to £13.82 after Goldman resumed coverage with a "neutral" rating.

An upgrade from Cazenove helped newspaper publisher Trinity Mirror rise 8.4% to 160p, with the broker citing improved advertising trends.

DSG International slid 4.7% to 26½p after Morgan Stanley said the retailer was running short of stock, a claim it denied.

Morgan Stanley cut DSG to "underweight" based on independent research showing that products from large manufacturers such as Apple were difficult to reserve for immediate collection via its Currys website. DSG said it was comfortable with stock levels going into Christmas and supply relationships were "extremely strong".

Industrial conglomerate Lupus Capital revealed just after the market closed on Friday that Greg Hutchings, its former chief executive, had requisitioned a general meeting at which he would seek to have a new management team, under his leadership, installed.

Mr Hutchings raised his stake in Lupus to 10.7% this month. Shares in Lupus closed 6.5% lower at 29p.

Drug company Goldshield firmed 0.6% to 473p. Again after the market closed, a management buyout team said it had made a 460p a share offer and bought a 16.6% stake.

GCM Resources, which is seeking approval to develop a coal project in Bangladesh called Phulbari, added 6.4% to 92p after Gerard Holden, its non-executive chairman, declared the purchase of 50,000 shares at 89p each. Mr Holden was previously the Global Head of Mining and Metals at Barclays Capital.

Nightclub operator Luminar fell 33.3% to 86¾p after it revealed there was a "significant risk" of not meeting market forecasts because of tough trading. Luminar launched a £36m equity placing at the end of July to raise funds for expansion. Analysts are concerned those plans will be scrapped.

Provexis, which develops medicinal food and drinks, fell 16.7% to 7.49p after confirming plans to raise £5m via an issue of new shares at 2½p. B shares in majority owner of Canary Wharf Group Songbird Estates rose again after news on Thursday of a fund raising. They added 32.3% to 3.15p.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Tokyo stocks fell sharply Friday as Nomura Holdings' dilutive equity financing plan triggered a selloff among a wide range of financial stocks, dragging down the entire market.

The possible tightening of capital standards for banks, and measures to extend loan deadlines for small businesses and individuals, as suggested by Japan's new banking and postal services minister, also cloud banks' outlook in the eyes of investors.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed down 278.24 points, or 2.6%, to 10,265.98, remaining under heavy pressure all day. It was the worst per centage loss for the index in five weeks.

For the holiday-shortened week, stocks ended down 1.0%, and are currently off 2.2% for September. Year-to-date, however, the Nikkei remains up 16%.

The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues fell 27.53 points, or 2.9%, to 922.67, with all 33 subindexes ending in negative territory. Trading volume was not robust, however, totaling just under 2 billion shares.

Nomura Holdings went limit-down at Y573, off 16%, after saying late Thursday that it planned to raise up to Y511 billion to bolster its domestic and overseas operations by selling new shares next month. Analysts said the offer will dilute Nomura's common equity by just under 30%. Nomura's slide pushed its sector down 11%, making it the biggest decliner on the board by a wide margin.

The fallout also spread to bank stocks. Mizuho Financial Group lost 4.3% to Y176 and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 6.5% to Y493, at least partially on fears that they, too, may raise capital via dilutive equity offerings. As a group, the sector lost 4.6%.

While financials may continue to limit the market's upside, the Nikkei's near-term movements may be determined more by the Yen's performance against the Dollar, as exporters have a bigger impact on the index, said Takero Inaizumi, head of equities at Mizuho Investors Securities. Some analysts point to support for the Dollar at Y90 as important for the Nikkei.

Among individual share movers, Japan Airlines tumbled 7.6% to Y133 on heavy volume after it asked the Japanese government on Thursday to help it weather a sharp drop in global travel and tougher competition. If granted, the assistance would represent its fourth bailout since 2001. JAL stock lost 16% on Thursday.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano said Friday the government has no intention of allowing the carrier to fail, and that the Prime Minister wants swift action to deal with the company's problems.

Bucking the market's decline, consumer lender Aiful jumped 17% to Y119, after a recent selloff on its application for debt reorganization procedures. Investors took heart in the company's restructuring efforts, which include cutting more than 40% of its group workforce. One trader at a Japanese brokerage noted that the stock was clearly oversold after dropping 24% in the prior session.

December Nikkei 225 futures ended down 150 points, or 1.4%, at 10,310 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean shares closed flat Friday as bargain hunting by local retail investors offset early profit-taking that was spurred by overnight weakness in the US markets.

Also, a news report that leaders of the Group of 20 nations agreed in a draft communique to avoid withdrawing economic stimulus prematurely helped soothe some market anxiety, said analysts.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, ended down 2.4 points at 1691.48.

The index fell as low as 1662.52 earlier as foreigners and local funds sold on overnight weakness in the US markets and disappointing US housing data.

Foreigners and domestic institutions offloaded a net KRW150.1 billion and KRW284.5 billion worth of stocks, respectively. But local retail investors picked up a net KRW449.2 billion worth of stocks.

Hynix Semiconductor and Hyosung both tumbled 8%, to KRW18,950 and to KRW70,200, respectively amid ongoing uncertainties over the sale of a major stake in Hynix this year. Hyosung was the only bidder for the 28% stake at the close of bidding earlier this week.

Some analysts also cited market talk that the stake in Hynix could be sold at a discounted price of around KRW3 trillion for the stock's decline. Based on the current stock current price, a 28% stake in Hynix is worth about KRW3.1 trillion.

Spokesmen from both Hynix and Hyosung declined to comment on the rumor to Dow Jones Newswires.

In contrast to Hynix, merger & acquisition hopes helped Daewoo International finish up 1.4% at KRW33,150. The Public Fund Oversight Committee held a meeting Friday to discuss details of the sale of stake in the company, and Daewoo's shareholders plan to name a lead manager for the sale next month.

Auto and auto parts makers turned higher, helping the broad market to trim early losses.

Hyundai Motor rose 4.5% to KRW115,500 following a report that its labor union Friday elected a moderate figure as its new leader, signaling a change in the body's often militant approach, said Sohn Myung-woo, an analyst at Woori Investment & Securities.

Kia Motors gained 3.8% to KRW19,200 on an ongoing earnings turnaround story, while Hyundai Mobis rose 3.1% to KRW183,000 on optimism about its hybrid business joint venture with LG Chem, added Sohn.

Citigroup also raised target prices of all three by citing better visibility amid a recovery in auto demand.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong stocks trimmed early losses, consolidating as the key index gained support after falling to a near three-week low on Friday.

Menswear retailer China Lilang fell to as low as HK$3.63 on its trading debut, 6.9 percent below the issue price of HK$3.90 before steadying at HK$3.87 by the close of trade.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 0.13 percent to 21,024.40, the lowest close since 15 September.

The China Enterprises Index of top locally listed mainland Chinese stocks gained 0.08 percent to 12,056.48.

Heavyweight HSBC fell 0.7% to HK$88.05 on worries about possible credit tightening in the US, contributing 23.21 points to the broader index's decline.

Bargain-hunting local property developers, meanwhile, bucked the downward trend.

Sun Hung Kai Properties rose 1.4% to HK$113.70 after having dropped 2.9% in the previous two sessions.

New World Development was up 1.5% at HK$16.38 after having dropped 6.6% in the last five sessions.

Wharf ended 1% higher at HK$40.30 after a 3.0% drop in the last two sessions.

CHINA

China shares ended lower Friday in light trade as funds were diverted away from the country's main board and toward subscriptions for the initial public offerings of 10 companies slated to list on China's soon-to-be-launched Nasdaq-style stock market.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended down 14.71 points, or 0.5%, at 2838.84. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 6.52 points, or 0.7%, to 976.80.

Turnover on the Shanghai bourse was CNY83.5 billion, down from CNY114.1 billion Thursday and the lowest level since March 16, when turnover was CNY63 billion.

Analysts said they expect the Shanghai Index to test psychological support at 2800 in the near term as demand for shares on the main board remains weak, especially since 10 companies holding IPOs ahead of listings on the Growth Enterprise Market opened subscriptions Friday.

The 10 GEM aspirants will raise a total CNY6.68 billion ($979 million) from the share sales, or more than double the CNY3.16 billion the companies had initially sought, according to a Dow Jones Newswires calculation based on company statements published Thursday.

China is widely expected to launch the Shenzhen Stock Exchange-hosted GEM next month.

Nonferrous companies led the losses due to weak metal prices on the London Metal Exchange on Thursday. Base metals fell sharply in London because of a drop in US housing resales in August and a sell-off in crude oil.

LME 3-month copper fell below $6,000 a metric ton to $5995/ton, dragging other metals down.

Jiangxi Copper fell 3.7% to CNY35.03 and Yunnan Aluminum was down 3.4% at CNY11.39.

Chinese steel makers also fell on concerns domestic steel prices may fall due to overcapacity.

Baoshan Iron & Steel fell 0.5% to CNY6.62 while Wuhan Iron & Steel was down 2.4% at CNY7.33.

TAIWAN

Ending a four-day drop, Taiwan's share prices rebounded Friday, with the weighted index, the market's key barometer, gaining 21 points, or 0.28 percent, to close at 7,345.22, still above the one-month moving average of 7,283.

Trailing Wall Street's two-day losses, the local bourse opened low at 7,298.37 and hit the day's low of 7,284.33 before rising to the day's high of 7,361.93.

A total of 3.38 billion shares changed hands on market turnover of NT$96.12 billion (US$2.97 billion).

Six of the eight major stock categories gained ground, with banking and financial shares moving up the most at 2 percent. Paper and pulp issues surged 1.2 percent, construction stocks and textile shares both rose 0.9 percent, machinery and electronics shares as well as foodstuff issues both advanced 0.1 percent.

Two other major stock categories lost ground, with cement stocks falling 0.8 percent and plastics and chemicals shares losing 0.1 percent.

Gainers outnumbered losers 1,181 to 1,112, with 242 stocks remaining unchanged.

Foreign institutional investors were net sellers of NT$2.57 billion worth of shares for the day and NT$8.56 billion worth of shares for the week.

The market shed 181.33 points for the week, the first weekly drop since the beginning of the month.

One analyst said that despite a rebound, the trading volume shrank to below NT$100 billion on the local bourse Friday, an indication that a lot of investors have considered quitting the market. But he said the market still has a chance to rebound in the short term.

THE PHILIPPINES

Share prices closed lower again on Friday, tracking mostly the movement of the overseas markets, analyst said.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index declined by 0.56% or 16 points to 2,821.34, while the all share index slipped by 0.31% or 5.76 points to 1,806.92.

A total of 1.69 billion shares worth P2.8 billion were traded with more foreign sellers than buyers at P123 million. Decliners led advancers 64 to 29 while 53 shares did not move.

Mining and oil shares tumbled by 1.71% or 139.62 points to 8,020.09, while property shares dipped by 0.96% or 10.66 points to 1,096.64.

Financials were also down by 0.96% or 6.03 points to 620.69, as was the industrial sector which shed 0.77% or 31.78 points to 4,079.31 and the service sector slipped by 0.3% or 4.33 points to 1,412.14.

Holding firms, meanwhile, rallied by 0.35% or 5.55 points to 1,578.92.

Blue chips closed lower.

Sy-led Banco de Oro Unibank, Inc. fell by 1.44% or P0.50 to P34, while Andrew L. Tan-led Megaworld Corp. declined by 1.29% or two centavos to P1.52.

Manila Electric Co. was also down by 0.52% or a peso to P188, along with index heavyweight Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. which lost 0.41% or P10 to P2,385.

Ayala Land was flat at P11.50.

SINGAPORE

Singapore shares closed 0.17 percent lower Friday on falls in selected blue chips ahead of the weekend, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index fell 4.61 points to 2,662.82. Volume traded totalled 3.39 billion shares worth 1.68 billion Singapore Dollars (1.19 billion US) and there were 321 rising issues, 218 losers while 783 issues were even.

Singapore Telecommunications was among the losers, falling two cents to 3.14 Dollars. Singapore Airlines rose six cents to 13.44 Dollars while Singapore Press Holdings was two cents firmer at 3.74 Dollars.

Top losers were casino operator Genting Singapore, down 3.5 percent and Wilmar International, down 3.4 percent.

INDONESIA

Indonesia's Jakarta Composite, Southeast Asia's second-best-performing bourse this year, led the market drop, closing down 1.3 percent, with coal miner Bumi Resources down 2.2 percent, Astra International Tbk, the top automotive distributor, down 1.6 percent and Telkom Indonesia losing 1.1 percent.

PT Bank Central Asia, Indonesia's largest lender by market value, tumbled 4.2 percent, leading the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index down 1.3 percent.

MALAYSIA

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended the week lower Friday, as most investors stayed away ahead of the weekend, and losses in key bluechips weighed on the market, a dealer said.

At close, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index shed 0.67 of a point to 1,217.39. It opened 0.37 of a point easier at 1,217.69.

The FBMEmas fell 5.5 points to 8,194.03, the FBM Top 100 dropped 7.42 points to 7,985.84, the FBM70 lost 19.38 points to 8,100.33 but the FBM ACE Index went up 14.55 points to 4,074.08.

The Technology Index inched up 0.02 of a point to 16.33, the Finance Index dwindled 16.79 points to 10,002.21, the Plantation Index slid 11.46 points to 5,992.99 and the Industrial Index was 8.43 points higher at 2,667.09.

Losers led gainers 329 to 309 with 250 counters unchanged and 366 untraded.

Turnover was lower at 688.772 million shares worth RM945.180 million from Thursday's 751.083 million shares valued at RM1.13 billion

Top loser was British American Tobbacco, which shed 34 sen to RM44.54.

Among actives KNM earned 1.5 sen to 78.5 sen, Oil Corp slipped 1.5 sen to 17.5 sen, Hock Lok Siew Corp inched down 5.5 sen to 44 sen.

As for the heavyweights, Sime Darby was flat at RM8.58, Maybank edged down one sen to RM6.68, CIMB Group was down eight sen to RM11.16 and Tenaga Nasional Bhd narrowed one sen to RM8.20.

Main Market turnover however slipped to 632.296 million shares worth RM929.450 million against Thursday's 689.408 million shares valued at RM1.115 billion.

Turnover on the ACE market dropped to 31.587 million shares valued at RM8.74 million from 36.501 million shares worth RM8.115 million traded previously.

Trade in warrants, however, increased to 19.463 million units worth RM5.095 million from 17.407 million units worth RM4.204 million previously.

THAILAND

The SET in Bangkok finished Friday down 0.92% at 721.57.

Shares in Thailand's second-largest insurance firm in terms of stock market value rose as much as 17 percent to 15.90 baht on their debut on Friday as its improving prospects attracted investors.

Bangkok Life raised $79 million from the public share sale earlier this month. At the IPO price, the company was valued at $483 million, making it the second-largest insurance firm after Siam Commercial New York Life.

After the IPO, top lender Bangkok Bank and the founding Sophonpanich family hold a combined 39.9 percent in the firm, and Japan's biggest life insurer, Nippon Life Insurance, owns 20.8 percent. Analysts said they expect Bangkok Life to enjoy strong growth in life premiums of about 20 percent a year in the next three year thanks to support from the bank's branch network.

Thailand's second-largest polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producer, VINYTHAI, surged 6.0 percent to 7.10 baht, having hit a near-13-month high of 7.40 baht in early trade, after the company said it planned to invest 8 billion baht ($238 million) to raise capacity of chlorine and caustic soda and invest in an epichlorohydrine (EPI) project.

Shares in Thailand's sixth-largest lender, TMB BANK, erased some of its earlier 3.36 percent gain and was up 2.52 percent at 1.22 baht after Fitch Ratings said it had downgraded TMB's foreign currency hybrid Tier 1 securities rating to 'B' from 'B+'. The downgrade reflected the heightened risk of the bank reporting a loss in the second half of this year, based on its weak first-quarter performance, and possible additional provisioning and charges in the second half of this year.

Thailand's top department store operator, CENTRAL PATTANA, rose 0.87 percent to 23.30 baht after it raised its 2009 revenue growth target to  30 percent from 25 percent and said it expected growth momentum to continue in 2010.

Shares in PTT Exploration and Production fell 0.34 percent to 147 baht - still outperforming other energy stocks, which fell nearly 1.0 percent in early trade - after the company said a subsidiary, PTTEP Australia Browse Basin Pty Ltd, had signed a deal to buy Australian exploration firm OMV Timor Sea Pty.

INDIA

Tepid Asian markets and weakness in technology, metal and bank stocks dragged Indian shares down Friday, amid lukewarm trading ahead of an extended weekend.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensitive Index slid 0.5%, or 88.43 points, to 16,693.

The 30-stock Sensex, which briefly turned positive during the day, traded between 16,613.22 and 16,812.02 in the session.

Indian markets are closed Monday for a local holiday.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty lost 27.60 points, or 0.6%, to close at 4,958.95.

The Sensex is expected to trade in the range of 16,200 to 17,000 next week, market participants said.

Total traded volume on the Bombay Stock Exchange was INR58.66 billion, compared with INR53.91 billion Thursday. Gainers beat decliners 1,628 to 1,137, while 90 stocks were unchanged.

Technology stocks fell as investors cashed in on profits after a sustained rally in the shares over the past four months. The BSE IT Index has more than doubled since the beginning of June on hopes of a revival in contract flows, driven by signs of recovery in the US economy.

Infosys Technologies slid 1.7% to INR2,245.30, Wipro fell 2.0% to INR567.15 and Tata Consultancy Services lost 2.1% to end at INR587.05.

Metal stocks declined, weighed down by a steep fall in the prices of some base metals Thursday, when most base metals breached support levels on weak US housing data and concerns over increasing stockpiles.

Hindalco Industries fell 1.8% to INR126.65, Sterlite Industries lost 1.5% to close at INR750.35 and Tata Steel was down 2.9% at INR498.50.

Banks also declined, hurt by profit-booking, with ICICI Bank losing 2.5% to close at INR838.60 and HDFC down 0.8% at INR1,608.55. State Bank of India slipped 0.9% to INR2,139.15.

However, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries jumped 7.0% to INR1,311 and Reliance Industries, India's most valued company, was up 1.2% at INR2,129.80.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market recovered impressively from a seven-day low on Friday amid hopes of a supportive communiqu?? from the Group of 20 industrial nations meeting.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed up 12.1 points or 0.3% at 4713.3 after bouncing from 4639.4 to 4727.0.

The index was 51% above its March low and 27% above its July low.

Volume was higher than normal, owing to activity caused by Thursday's expiration of September equity options.

After suffering broad-based declines earlier in the session following a second consecutive day of falls on Wall Street, the Australian share market recovered on the back of strong gains in banks.

Banks reacted positively to ANZ's decision to buy ING's 51% stake in its life insurance and wealth management joint venture in Australia and New Zealand for Eur$1.1 billion.

ANZ rose 1.3% to A$23.79, National Australia Bank rose 1.8% to A$30.42, Westpac rose 2.4% to A$26.17 and Commonwealth Bank rose 2.6% to A$51.30.

All four major banks set fresh multi-month highs.

The market then found support from a Reuters report of a draft communique from the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh. The report said the G-20 agreed to avoid withdrawing economic stimulus prematurely and work together on exiting the extraordinary measures when the time is right.

Apart from banks, retailers attracted strong demand, with Harvey Norman rising 3.8% to A$4.33, David Jones up 3.1% to A$5.61 and JB Hi-Fi up 3.1% to A$19.70.

Fashion retailer OrotonGroup was the standout in the sector, rising 15% to A$5.25 after its fiscal 2009 net profit rose 16% to A$19.4 million.

Energy stocks also performed well, with Woodside rising 1.3% to A$52.40, despite falling to A$50.52 intraday, after crude oil fell 4.4% to US$65.89 overnight before bouncing to US$66.41 in Asia.

In the materials sector, BHP Billiton fell 0.5% to A$37.55 and Rio Tinto fell 1.5% to A$59.98 after London Metals Exchange copper fell 2.6%.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares finished lower Friday as the market was shaken by a surprise earnings downgrade by appliances maker Fisher & Paykel Appliances.

A weak showing on Wall Street and Asian markets also weighed on sentiment, brokers said.

The New Zealand whiteware maker's shares slumped 12.2% to finish at a four-month nadir of NZ$0.65, but were off intraday lows of NZ$0.58. When markets opened investors punished the stock on news - released after trading hours Thursday - the company is now expecting a loss in its fiscal year and had breached one of its banking covenants.

The NZX-50 Index closed 19.17 points, or 0.6%, down at 3,111.25. The market lost 1.4% in the week.

Other cyclical stocks were also hurt by the combination of concern stemming from F&P's downgrade and depressed sentiment globally.

Building materials maker Fletcher Building lost 0.7% to NZ$8.25, steel distributor Steel & Tube fell 1.8% to NZ$4.68.

Retailers were also weak, led by children's clothing retailer Pumpkin Patch, down 4.6% at NZ$1.88, and discount retailer The Warehouse, down 2.2% at NZ$4.00.

Chipmaker Rakon extended losses following completion this week of its NZ$45 million placement to institutions, which was priced at NZ$1.15 a share. The stock lost 4% to NZ$1.20. Brokers said that a sharp downgrade to earnings in the current fiscal year will weigh on the stock, although they note the share price remains above the placement level, meaning long-term investors continue to back the company.

Telecom bucked the broad market fall for much of the day, rising as much as 1.2% before finishing flat at NZ$2.62. Brokers noted the stock remains tied to a tight-range. 
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesCommodities prices fell sharply during the week, with the spot S&P GSCI index, the benchmark of the sector, dropping 5.9% to 441 points on profit taking, fresh doubts about the strength of the recovery and US Dollar movements.

Crude oil prices felt the bulk of the price correction, dropping to a low of $65 a barrel, down from $75 a barrel a month ago.

In spite of the correction, oil prices are within the trading range in place since June of $60-$75 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's largest commodities dealer, said on Friday that the market needed "just a little patience" before a clear trend emerged. "This volatile but range-bound price action has, in our view, reflected the nature of the end of a recession, the trough in economic activity, as stabilizing fundamentals with no clear trend have left the bulls and bears to argue about future fundamentals," the bank said.

Nymex November West Texas Intermediate was 8.3 lower on the week at $66.02 a barrel - up 13 cents on the day. ICE November Brent dropped 6.7% to $65.11 - up 29 cents on the day. Goldman Sachs reiterated its view that US crude oil prices would rise to $85 a barrel by the end of 2009.

Other commodities markets were mixed. Aluminium fell 5.4% to $1,815. However, cocoa prices in London gained 1.7% on the week, above £2,070 a tonne.

Copper prices rose after the Dollar weakened, boosting the metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation, and exchange-monitored inventories declined.

The US Dollar Index fell as much as 0.5% today, the third decline in four sessions. Some traders buy Dollar-priced commodities when the currency weakens to preserve purchasing power. Stockpiles tallied by the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped, a sign that copper demand may be rising. Prices sank for a fourth straight week.

Copper futures for December delivery rose 3.1 cents, or 1.1%, to $2.7405 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division. For the week, copper slipped 1.6%. The most-active contract has dropped every week since Aug. 28 after doubling this year through last month.

Earlier, copper slid as much as 1.3% after an unexpected drop in US durable-goods orders stoked concern that the pace of recovery from the deepest recession in seven decades is slowing in the world's biggest economy. Orders for longer- lasting items fell 2.4% last month from July, the Commerce Department reported in Washington.

Gold and silver prices fell for a third straight day Friday, even after the Dollar reversed early gains and slid lower.

Gold for December delivery lost $7.30 to $991.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, finishing the week down 1.9%. It was the second day in a row that gold closed below $1,000 after a nine-day streak of closing above that level.

December silver dropped 23.5 cents to $16.06 an ounce - its lowest close in nearly a month.

Commodities began to fall early in the day as the Dollar rose, following their usual pattern of trading. But buying still didn't pick up even after the Dollar fell back, which would normally spur commodities higher.

Among other metals, October platinum fell $23.90 to $1,284.60 an ounce. Palladium also fell.

Gasoline for October delivery lost nearly 2 cents to $1.6205 a gallon, and heating oil for October delivery fell less than a penny to $1.6771 gallon. Natural gas added 3 cents to $3.9850 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Grain prices were mixed on the Chicago Board of Trade.

December wheat futures dropped 23.25 cents to $4.4975 a bushel, while corn for December delivery slipped 2.5 cents to $3.34 a bushel.

November soybeans rose 6.5 cents to $9.26 a bushel.

Among other soft commodities, cocoa and sugar rose, while coffee and cotton fell.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The pound dropped to a five-month low against the Euro and lost ground against the Dollar this week as traders took comments from Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, as a green light to sell sterling.

Mr King said sterling's fall was "helpful" in rebalancing the UK to be more focused on exports, in reports published on Thursday. "The fall in the exchange rate that we have seen will be helpful, but there's no doubt that we need to see a shift of resources into net exports that compete with imports and help to reduce the trade deficit," he said.

Traders took the comments to mean the Bank was comfortable with sterling weakness. Some even believed that this had become a new policy tool with which the central bank could kick-start the economy.

Indeed, the Bank had undermined the pound earlier in the week by warning that sterling's long-run value may have been fundamentally undermined by the financial crisis.

In its quarterly bulletin, the Bank warned that overseas investors might have reassessed their willingness or ability to purchase sterling assets and thereby finance the UK trade deficit, pushing the long-run sustainable real sterling exchange rate lower.

Over the week, the pound fell 1.88% to £0.9210 against the Euro, its weakest level since the start of April, dropped 2% to $1.5936 against the Dollar and lost 3.63% to Y143.16 against the Yen.

The Yen also advanced elsewhere, rising through the Y90 level against the Dollar for the first time since early February as traders cited heavy repatriation flows from Japanese exporters ahead of the end of the first half of the financial year.

The Yen rose to a seven-month high of Y89.49 against the Dollar on Friday before easing to stand at Y89.85, still up 1.58% on the week. The Yen also climbed 1.88% to Y131.80 against the Euro on the week.

Meanwhile, the Dollar hit a fresh one-year low of $1.4842 against the Euro on Wednesday as increasing optimism over the prospects for global growth prompted investors to abandon the relative safety of the US currency in search of higher returns elsewhere.

Its credentials as a funding currency were underlined as the Federal Reserve upgraded its assessment of the US economy after its policy meeting on Wednesday, but maintained its commitment to keep US interest rates at exceptionally low levels for an extended period.

However, the Dollar bounced back in later sessions to stand at $1.4669 against the Euro, 0.3% stronger on the week. It ended flat at SFr1.0295 against the Swiss franc over the week and advanced strongly against its Canadian counterpart, climbing 2.2% to C$1.0927 over the week.

The Norwegian Krone rose 1.03% to NKr5.8105 against the Dollar on the week and, against the Euro, rose 1.3% to NKr5.7849.

South Africa's Rand firmed against a wobbly Dollar on Friday and government bonds weakened on supply concerns while local stocks were pushed lower by the lack of risk appetite in the equities market.

The Rand was trading at 7.40 against the Dollar, 1.3% firmer than New York's Thursday close of 7.4975. It firmed to 7.3755 earlier.

And as always, rounding our currencies here in China with the Dollar against the RMB. On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar closed at CNY6.8282, up from Thursday's close of CNY6.8272. It traded between CNY6.8281 and CNY6.8296.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina may be garlanding the nation's bankers as "model workers", but as every model knows, fashion can be fickle.

This year's loan explosion has many fretting over a commensurate rise in bad debts. And with good reason: at 31 per cent of gross domestic product, the Rmb8,185bn of new loans pumped out between January and August is more than was seen in Japan in the late 1980s, or the US during Greenspan's bubble.

We all know how those turned out.

China's riposte is that its banks are healthy. In aggregate, they are: published monthly data shows non-performing loans falling metronomically for the past five years, to 1.8 per cent at the end of June.

But lean in more closely, and the pulse flickers. Sharply rising NPLs could erode already thin capital bases, especially outside the Big Four lenders.

As Citigroup notes, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Minsheng, which number seven and eight by assets, barely meet the local minimum legal requirement of 8 per cent capital adequacy, let alone the regulator's guidance of 10 per cent.

The industry's best specimens, meanwhile, are still digesting the consequences of the last state-directed lending spree. In 1999 Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, number one by assets, sold its bad debts to state-owned Huarong Asset Management for Rmb313bn of government-guaranteed bonds in return.

Some of these bonds are due later this year. Now, as China's budget deficit widens to fund its stimulus, guess what: Huarong (translation: "the prosperity of China") may not be prosperous enough to meet those debts, even with a state guarantee.

Other euphemistically-named vehicles are in a similar pickle. In the case of Cinda ("trust and development"), due to pay Rmb247bn to China Construction Bank earlier this week, the Ministry of Finance has simply extended the maturity of the bonds for a decade, with the interest unchanged at 2.25 per cent.

Blithely rolling over unpayable debts is not the hallmark of a healthy banking system. China has not got to grips with its last lending splurge, let alone this one.

**************************************

Metallurgical Corp of China shares plunged on Thursday in Hong Kong's worst market debut this year as a flood of new listings have made investors more selective.

Shares of the dual-listed company, which are also listed in Shanghai, hit a low of HK$5.40 in early trading, 15 per cent lower than the offer price of HK$6.35. The shares later recovered to HK$5.61.

Poor showing by the company's shares in Shanghai, which fell 4.6 per cent to Rmb6.04 on Thursday, also affected the stock's performance in Hong Kong.

MCC shares had begun trading in Shanghai on Monday, when they closed up 28 per cent at Rmb6.94, an increase considered muted by Chinese standards. The shares lost a total of 8.8 per cent over the past two days.

The company, which raised a combined US$5.1bn from Hong Kong and Shanghai in the world's second largest initial public offering this year, is one of China's largest engineering companies. However, investors have shunned the construction sector where companies have been plagued by low margins.

According to Dealogic, at least 15 companies plan to sell shares in Hong Kong by the end of this year. Wynn Resorts, the casino operator controlled by Steve Wynn, is raising up to $1.6bn by selling a 25 per cent stake in its Macao operation. Speaking in Hong Kong on Wednesday, Mr Wynn said the listing will help the Las Vegas-based group realise its aspirations of becoming "more of a Chinese company". Trading will start on October 9.

Rival Las Vegas Sands, controlled by Sheldon Adelson, is also slated for a listing in Hong Kong this year.

Sinopharm, China's biggest pharmaceuticals distributor, rose 7.88 per cent on Thursday after rising nearly 16 per cent on its debut on Wednesday. The Hang Seng index was down 2.5 per cent.

**************************************

China's $297.5 billion sovereign wealth fund is stepping up investments in commodities companies, agreeing to spend $2.75 billion in the last two days.

China Investment Corp. bought $1.9 billion of debt from PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia's biggest coal producer, Jakarta-based Bumi said in a statement late Thursday. A day earlier, CIC paid $850 million for a 15 percent stake in Noble Group Ltd., a Hong Kong-based commodity supplier.

After losing money on Blackstone Group LP and Morgan Stanley, CIC is increasing investments in resources firms to gain access to the raw materials it needs to fuel growth. China -- the world's biggest buyer of commodities including soybeans, cotton and iron ore -- will expand 8.2 percent this year, compared with a March forecast of 7 percent, the Asian Development Bank said this week.

Bumi will use part of the funds to pare about $1.6 billion of debt and boost investments, according to Dileep Srivastava, the company's head of investor relations. The transaction with the fund may also help Bumi increase investments in China.

"At a time when there are a lot of investments on the anvil, it frees up your cash flow," Srivastava said by phone from Hong Kong Thursday. "You will be getting comfortable tenors at a time when you will be investing heavily in the next couple of years."

A CIC spokeswoman in Beijing confirmed the Bumi deal Friday and refused to comment.

The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index, a gauge of 19 raw materials and commodities, remains 46 percent below a high reached in July last year.

Bumi's shares have more than tripled this year making it the best-performing stock in the 19-stock MSCI Indonesia Index. They rose 0.8 percent to 3,350 rupiah on Sept. 17. Indonesian markets have been closed to celebrate the Muslim festival of Eid-ul-Fitr.

CIC had 87.4 percent of its assets of $297.5 billion in cash or equivalents last year, it said last month. It will actively grasp investment opportunities this year after slowing spending in 2008 because of the global financial crisis, the company said in a statement on Aug. 7.

The sovereign fund bought a 17 percent stake in Teck Resources Ltd., Canada's largest diversified mining company, in July for C$1.74 billion ($1.5 billion) as the Canadian company sought to reduce debt.

Singapore's sovereign wealth fund also is shifting to commodity investments after the global financial crisis drove down the value of its stakes in Bank of America Corp. and Barclays Plc, causing it to report a profit that dropped a record 66 percent in the 12 months to March 31. Temasek Holdings Pte agreed to buy 13.76 percent of Singapore-based commodities supplier Olam International Ltd. in June.

China established its sovereign wealth fund in 2007 to help manage the nation's $2 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves.

**************************************

China, the world's largest metals consumer, is getting "sophisticated" in its commodity investments with a more commercial approach, said a former chief executive officer of BHP Billiton Ltd.

Investments by Chinese companies in Latin America and Africa haven't "been as impressive as initially planned," leading to a change in thinking, Charles "Chip" Goodyear, who ran the world's largest mining company for almost five years, told investors at a CLSA Research Ltd. forum in Hong Kong Friday.

China, undeterred by its failure to invest in Rio Tinto Group, is boosting spending on oil and mining acquisitions by at least half this year to take advantage of lower valuations after prices slumped. The nation's sovereign wealth fund this week spent $2.75 billion on commodities companies.

"They are taking a more sophisticated approach to this, and they will be more commercial to the way they approach these things," Goodyear said. "There are a lot of synergistic win- win opportunities out there."

Bids for resources by China, whose currency reserves are the world's largest, have been met with opposition in the US and Australia. London-based Rio Tinto, the world's second- largest iron ore supplier, rebuffed a $19.5 billion investment from Beijing-based Aluminum Corp. of China in June in favor of a share sale and a joint venture with rival BHP Billiton.

The Asian nation has pressed ahead with purchases as a 4 trillion-RMB ($586 billion) stimulus package boosts demand from builders and manufacturers. China Investment Corp. this week bought $1.9 billion of debt from PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia's largest coal producer, and also paid $850 million for a stake in Noble Group Ltd., a Hong Kong-based commodity supplier.

Chinese companies have a different price forecast in their calculations for acquisitions as compared with Western companies, which may expect lower prices, Goodyear said Friday.

"China sees it as 'We're going to use the resources for several decades, so therefore our pricing expectations are different,'" Goodyear said. There "will be resource needs ahead, and they will want access to these resources in the years ahead."

Chinese companies will step up the pace of overseas mergers and acquisitions in a "new wave" of deals, Xiong Weiping, chairman of Aluminum Corp. of China, the nation's biggest producer of the metal, said Sept. 16.

Copper prices have doubled and oil has jumped 54 percent this year as China boosted imports to fuel its stimulus spending needs.

**************************************

Chinese state companies this month began supplying petrol to Iran and now provide up to one-third of its imports in a development that threatens to undermine US-led efforts to shut off the supply of fuel on which its economy depends.

The sales come in spite of moves over the past year by international companies, including BP and Reliance of India, to stop selling petrol to Iran, and highlight the difficulties of implementing sanctions aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Traders and bankers familiar with Iran's purchasing said the gap left by the withdrawal of such long-standing suppliers had been filled by Chinese petrol this month.

While Iran is one of the world's biggest oil producers its refineries are dilapidated and it suffers from runaway petrol demand because of generous subsidies.

Foreign ministers from the world's big powers are meeting on Wednesday in New York to discuss how to convince Iran to curtail its nuclear programme, which Tehran maintains is for peaceful purposes.

The White House on Tuesday said that at a meeting with Chinese president Hu Jintao, President Barack Obama had been "forceful" in calling for more co-operation from Beijing over Iran.

Oil traders said that Chinese-state owned oil companies were selling the petrol through intermediaries. The sales are legal as fuel imports are not at present included in sanctions against the country.

A Chinese official in Washington said: "Chinese enterprises conduct normal trade relations with Iran, strictly speaking within the relevant UN resolutions.

"On the UN side, the Chinese government position on the Iranian nuclear issue has been very consistent and clear: China has been working with the relevant parties together for the peaceful resolution of the issue through diplomatic means."

Other Asian and European oil companies and trading houses also sell petrol to Tehran.

Beijing's leading oil companies Sinopec and CNPC have signed $4bn contracts to help Tehran to pump more oil out of its fields, many of which are declining with age.

The US and some of its allies want to shut off Tehran's petrol imports, which have long been depicted as the Iranian economy's most vulnerable point.

President Barack Obama endorsed such a goal before taking office and US diplomats have discussed banning petrol sales to Iran in a possible new round of United Nations Security Council sanctions. Proposed legislation to punish international companies selling petrol to Iran has already won the backing of the vast majority of members of the US Congress.

But, because of the difficulty of convincing Russia and China to sign up to UN sanctions and the risk of infuriating allies, particularly France, by targeting non-US companies that sell oil to Iran, US officials are focusing on a behind-the-scenes bid to convince energy companies not to sell petrol to Iran. The strategy follows Washington's largely successful effort to convince international banks to cut back on doing business with Tehran.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 The G20 leaders' summit may be contributing to market caution: the pre-meeting signals are the leaders will agree on new rules for banker compensation and bank capital requirement, though on a more favorable note it seems that stimulus measures will be maintained for now.

An official G20 statement is not scheduled until late afternoon/early evening Saturday.

The rally in US stocks, which stumbled in recent days on worries about the economic recovery and continued government stimulus, will be tested next week by crucial data on growth and jobs.

Gross domestic product, the most widely watched indicator of economic activity, and payrolls data will lead markets by the nose next week. The final GDP reading for the second quarter of 2009 is due out Wednesday, and Wall Street expects it to show that the US economy shrank at an annual rate of 1.2% from April through June. The Commerce Department releases the results before trading begins.

Also holding traders' attention will be Friday's non-farm payrolls report from the Labor Department. Economists are looking for the loss of 188,000 jobs in September, and an unemployment rate still inching upward to 9.8%. Markets will also look closely at accompanying figures on hourly earnings and average work week for clues on whether American workers, who are also the consumers that drive much of the nation's economy, are feeling any relief from the recession.

The data comes amid signs the rally in stocks, which has lifted the Standard & Poor's 500 index some 54% since early March, could be fizzling out as I mentioned at the outset this week.

The market suffered three straight days of losses and the S&P put in its biggest weekly drop since early July, with data on Friday showing new orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods falling by their biggest margin in seven months.

Next week, the focus likely will be on Friday's monthly US government jobs data. The 9.7% US unemployment rate is a major concern for investors because of the impact on the economy and, in particular, consumer spending.

Revised figures on second-quarter gross domestic product and employment data will guide stock markets in the US whilst Nike and Walgreen report earnings.

Other pieces of economic data out next week include the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index on Tuesday morning. The consensus estimate is for another big drop of 14.3% in July, as property markets continued to suffer through the summer months. Markets are not likely to panic over the figure though. Signs of a housing bottom have been elusive, but home builders have spoken optimistically about their prospects going into next year. Consumer confidence figures for this month also come out Tuesday morning with a modest increase expected.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a closely watched indicator of manufacturing activity, is out Wednesday after trading starts. Economists predict a small uptick that would indicate the industrial sector is finally expanding again. Last month's report also showed encouraging trends in new orders and prices. Commodities traders will look to the weekly report on crude inventories, out in the morning.

Shares of big banks like Citigroup and Bank of America will also be in focus Wednesday as the House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on the proposed consumer watchdog agency to regulate financial products. A subcommittee will hear testimony on reforming the way credit rating agencies, such as Moody's, do business.

Retailers could be in focus Thursday as personal income and spending figures are released in the morning. August results are expected to show nearly no increase in income but a solid 1% rise in spending, which could provide support for investors who think the stock market rally should keep going. Both figures have fallen sharply in the recession. Weekly unemployment claims will also attract the market's attention.

Next week's EU economic calendar includes the September 28th release of German CPI expected at 0.2%.On September 29th EU business climate will be released  expected at -2.01 compared -2.21 last month.

EU money supply is also expected to be released on September 29th expected at 4%.

On September 30th German unemployment rate will be released expected at 8.4% compared to 8.3% last month.

On October 2nd EU PPI will be released expected at -0.6% compared to -0.8% last month.

Investors on the London Stock Exchange will cast their eyes over key British growth data and a batch of trading updates next week as the FTSE 100 looks to get back on track.

Next Tuesday sees publication of the final estimate for second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data in Britain.

Also next week, traders are set to digest trading updates from Wolseley, the world's biggest distributor of plumbing and heating products, as well as from tourism groups TUI Travel and Thomas Cook, catering company Compass and clothes-to-food retailer Marks & Spencer.

Here in the AsiaPac' region, next week's Japanese economic calendar includes the September 29th release of August CPI expected at -0.3% compared to 0.3% last month.

On September 30th August industrial output will be released expected at 1.9% compared to 2.1% last month. Housing starts and construction orders for August will also be released on September 30th.

On October 1st the September Tankan Index will be released expected at -35 compared to- 48 last quarter with CAPEX spending expected at -11%. August retail sales will also be released on October 1st expected at 0.4% compared to -0.2% in July.

NZ data flows dries up next week with building consents and National Bank of NZ business survey the most notable releases.

As we all know, next week sees China celebrate its 60th Anniversary and so we can expect the China markets and Hong Kong to be short on inflows.

Finally, with the aforementioned in mind and my almost 'cynical' view that China always seem to release something 'noteworthy' around a holiday period, don't be surprised if we see a few domestic 'announcements' coming out of Beijing in the week ahead.

I wish those of you in China a pleasant and hopefully not too 'interrupted' China National Holiday week - apparently with the Internet restrictions here over the next 10 days being ramped up markedly, I might have very limited access to 'news' for next weekend's Newsletter - but as always, I will do my best.
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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