Financial Page International

28 November 2009 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
It just goes to show how quickly things can turn dark!

Dubai, playground of the rich and famous, saw Dubai World announce this week that it could not/would not be able to pay back $60 billion it owes - it needs more time.

This statement from ostensibly a sovereign wealth fund (as Dubai World is very much owned by the Emirate Dubai) obviously triggered major declines around the world - particularly in European and Asian banks - those that have major exposure.

As for the extent of the US concern, we will not really know this until Monday as the US has mainly been closed for Thanksgiving Day celebrations since Wednesday evening.

While global markets wobble, the US eats Turkey!

But seriously, Dubai's debt woes may worsen to become a "major sovereign default" that roils developing nations and cuts off capital flows to emerging markets, Bank of America said.

"One cannot rule out - as a tail risk - a case where this would escalate into a major sovereign default problem, which would then resonate across global emerging markets in the same way that Argentina did in the early 2000s or Russia in the late 1990s," Bank of America strategists wrote in a report.

A default would lead to a "sudden stop of capital flows into emerging markets" and be a "major step back" in the recovery from the global financial crisis, they wrote.

Emerging-market stocks around the world have slumped for two days on concern a debt restructuring by Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, will add to the $1.72 trillion of losses and writedowns from the global credit freeze. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.9% to 940.30, extending this week's decline to 2.6%.

Dubai, which borrowed $80 billion in a four-year construction boom to transform its economy into a tourism and financial hub, suffered the world's steepest property slump in the recession. Home prices fell 50% from their 2008 peak, according to Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG.

"In a best-case scenario, this will remain limited to a Dubai corporate sector problem, with either some bailout from UAE authorities or a market-friendly debt restructuring," BOA wrote.

Bank of America estimates that Dubai's debt totals $88 billion, and that its external debt equals 103% of gross domestic product, according to a separate report.

South Korea's won lost 1.7%, the biggest slump among 25 emerging-market currencies, followed by the Philippine peso.

The extra yield investors demand to own developing nations' bonds instead of US Treasuries swelled 14 basis points, the most in a month, to 3.24 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI+ Index.

Dubai's state-owned companies' credits were downgraded by Fitch Ratings Friday, and by Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's earlier this week, on concern the government's ability to support lenders will be constrained after Dubai's attempt to delay debt repayments.

US stocks fell, joining a global slump that began when American exchanges were closed Thursday, as Dubai's attempt to reschedule debt rattled investors and drove shares of banks lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 1.7% after retreating as much as 2.4% in the first 15 minutes of trading.

The US is monitoring closely the developments in Dubai related to an effort by the government's investment company to delay debt repayments, a Treasury official said.

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he and Financial Stability Board Chairman Mario Draghi are confident that Dubai's debt troubles are "containable."

That comment in its own right reminds me of 1987 and the UK Weather-Person Michael Fish saying the day before the biggest storm in UK history - "there absolutely and categorically will not be a hurricane here in England"!

For Michael Fish read Gordon Brown maybe on this one!

The cost of insuring Dubai's sovereign debt against default surged for the third day in a row as the fallout from Dubai World's restructuring announcement continues to fuel a flight from risk.

It now costs $664,000 to insure $10 million of Dubai sovereign debt against default for five years, up from $541,000 at Thursday's New York close, according to data provider CMA. The cost of insuring the emirate's sovereign debt has now more than doubled since Dubai World's announcement Wednesday that it was seeking a six-month "standstill" on its debts with all lenders.

Dubai World real-estate unit Nakheel's $3.5 billion sukuk, or Islamic bond, continued to plunge in value and was Friday trading at 50%-55% of its face value, a trader said. The price of the bond, which is due to be repaid Dec. 14, has more than halved since Wednesday's announcement. The bondholders are considering a lawsuit against Nakheel, which developed the emirate's iconic palm tree-shaped islands, and are looking at seizing some assets from Dubai World.

The five-year credit default swaps for Dubai-based port operator DP World also continued to rise. The level hit 810 basis points Friday, more than 200 basis points wider than Thursday's close of 608 basis points, CMA said.

Dubai World owns 77% of DP World, which is the fourth largest ports operator in the world. The port operator will be excluded from its parent's debt standstill talks and restructuring.

Fitch Ratings Friday downgraded the ratings of three UAW banks as a result of the Dubai World restructuring news.

Dubai Bank was downgraded two notches to BBB- from BBB+, with a negative outlook; Tamweel PJSC, the UAW's largest provider of real-estate finance, was downgraded three notches to BB from BBB; and Bahrain-based TAIB Bank was downgraded two notches to BB from BBB-, with a negative outlook. All three institutions' core shareholder is Dubai Holding, which is ultimately owned by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

Fitch said UAW banks with close links to the Dubai government will look to it for support.

On to the number on the boards for the week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS equities followed the downward global trend as investors retreated risk on concerns over Dubai's attempt to reschedule its debt. 

The MSCI World Index fell 2.3% in the last two days as Dubai World attempts to extend the maturities of some of its $59 billion of liabilities. 

Financials stocks took the biggest hit as banks in the MSCI World Index fell 2.4% Thursday, followed by JPMorgan and Bank of America losing over 2% each in Friday's US session. 

Overall, investors showed a clear aversion to risk over the last two days and commodities were sold off in addition to stocks. 

Investors moved their money towards safety, pushing up US Treasurys and the Dollar Index which rose back above 75 during intraday trading. 

The US stock exchanges closed three hours early, after 4.5 billion shares were traded, the least since 26 December of last year. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1% as all thirty stocks in the index closed lower on the day. 

Investors showed concern over the economic recovery and pulled money out of riskier, speculative assets such as commodities driving energy stocks and basic materials lower by 2% each. 

Caterpillar and Alcoa fell over 2% each while General Electric lost just over 1%.

The broader S&P500 index closed lower Friday as each of its sectors were in the red. 

The financial sector was the worst performer, down 2.72% on concern over Dubai debt exposure. 

By the end of the day, all but four of the S&P's 500 stocks fell on the day.

Trading in the tech-heavy NASDAQ led to the largest decline of the three indices as its technology stocks fell over 1.7%.

Research In Motion and Oracle fell over 2% each, while Microsoft, Apple, and Google each dropped over 1%.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks advanced, rebounding from the biggest drop in seven months for the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, as concern over Dubai's attempt to delay its debt payments abated.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, which was Dubai World's biggest loan arranger since January 2007 according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., climbed 5.2%, having plunged to a seven- month low Thursday. Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest carmaker, led auto stocks higher after the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts Index sank 4.3% Thursday.

The Stoxx 600 gained 1.2% to 242.6, having plummeted the most since April Thursday amid concern Dubai's proposal to delay debt payments may trigger the biggest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001. The gauge erased an earlier drop of as much as 1.8% Friday amid speculation the sheikhdom's neighbors in the United Arab Emirates may come to its aid.

National benchmark indexes rose in all 18 western European markets, except Luxembourg and Iceland. The UK's FTSE climbed 1%. France's CAC 40 advanced 1.2% and Germany's DAX added 1.3%.

The VStoxx Index, which gauges the cost of using options to protect against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50, fell 6.6%, the most in four weeks.

The Stoxx 600 has rallied 54% since March 9 amid signs government spending and record-low interest rates are helping to drag the economy out of recession. The advance has pushed the index's valuation to more than 56 times reported earnings, the highest level since June 2003.

GERMANY

German stocks climbed, with the DAX Index rebounding from its biggest drop since July, as concern eased that Dubai's proposal to reschedule debt payments will derail the global economic recovery.

Volkswagen AG and Bayerische Motorenwerke AG both climbed more than 3% as analysts lifted their recommendation on the shares. ThyssenKrupp AG and Salzgitter AG, the country's biggest steelmakers, increased more than 1.9%, following European basic resources shares higher.

The benchmark DAX Index added 1.3% to 5,685.61 in Frankfurt, trimming Thursday's 3.3% slump. The measure gained 0.4% this week, making up for last week's loss. The DAX has rallied 55% since its low on March 6 as Europe's biggest economy exited recession in the second quarter. The broader HDAX Index also increased Friday, gaining 1.3%.

Volkswagen rallied 6.4% to 86.16 Euros Friday, its biggest gain since July. Europe's largest carmaker was raised to "buy" from "sell" at BHF Bank AG. Separately, Volkswagen said it aims to sell 1 million units annually in the Brazilian market by 2014.

BMW, the world's largest luxury-car producer, rose 3.1% to 32.28 Euros as Equinet AG upgraded the stock to "hold" from "reduce." Separately, the company agreed to sell its Formula One racing team back to former owner Peter Sauber.

Porsche SE increased 1.2% to 47.16 Euros. The maker of the 911 sports car was raised to "neutral" from "underperform" at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

ThyssenKrupp rose 2% to 24.47 Euros, halving Thursday's decline. Salzgitter increased 2.7% to 63.81 Euros, ending a two-day slide.

Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG, Germany's two largest banks, followed European banking shares higher, gaining 2.8% to 47.94 Euros and 2.3% to 6.235 Euros respectively.

Infineon Technologies, Europe's second-largest semiconductor maker, added 4.7% to 3.22 Euros, ending two days of losses. The company expects three to four years of growth if the world economy experiences no big upheavals, Chief Executive Officer Peter Bauer told Handelsblatt.

Demag Cranes added 3% to 23.21 Euros, its biggest increase in more than three weeks. The world's largest maker of mobile harbor cranes was raised to "buy" from "sell" at DZ Bank AG.

GK Software jumped 4.9% to 40.40 Euros, rising for the fourth time this week. The German supplier of software to 12,000 shops in 20 countries, said it is raising its 2009 forecast after a nine-month increase in sales.

Init Innovation in Traffic Systems slumped 7.4% to 10 Euros, its biggest one-day decline in almost three months. The German maker of GPS tracking systems was cut to "hold" at Commerzbank AG.

Leoni climbed 4.2% to 15.36 Euros, trimming Thursday's 4.9% decline. Germany's biggest maker of automotive electrical cables was raised to "outperform" from "underperform" at CA Cheuvreux.

MTU Aero Engines increased 2.9% to 34.62 Euros, its biggest gain since Oct. 7. The company said it plans to expand in China where it will cooperate with AVIC Commercial Aircraft Engine Co. Ltd. on a joint study to explore options for building a domestic aircraft engine industry in China.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index gained 42.22, or 1.2%, to 3,721.45 in Paris. The gauge fell 0.2% this week. The SBF 120 Index also rose 1.2% Friday.

Avenir Telecom jumped 9 cents, or 9.2%, to 1.07 Euros, rebounding from the lowest level in more than two months. The mobile-phone services operator said first-half net profit rose to 2.3 million Euros ($3.4 million) from 183,000 Euros a year earlier.

Bouygues increased 38 cents, or 1.2%, to 33.48 Euros, ending a three-day decline. France's largest infrastructure company was raised to "equal-weight" from "underweight" at Morgan Stanley.

BNP Paribas rose 1.29 Euros, or 2.4%, to 55.14 Euros, paring a 5.1% decline Thursday. France's biggest bank has "no material exposure to Dubai's real-estate bubble," said Paris-based spokesman Pascal Henisse.

Carrefour gained 50.5 cents, or 1.6%, to 32.40 Euros, a fourth increase this week. Europe's biggest retailer was rated a "buy" in new coverage at Citigroup Inc., which said "the market will be surprised by the strength of earnings recovery in 2010."

Credit Agricole increased for a third day this week, adding 24 cents, or 1.7%, to 14.04 Euros. Calyon, the investment banking unit of France's third-largest bank by market value, has less than 300 million Euros of "exposure to Dubai's debt," spokeswoman Anne Robert said in a telephone interview Friday.

LDLC.com declined for a third session, losing 12 cents, or 4%, to 2.88 Euros. The Internet retailer of computer hardware and software posted a loss of 720,000 Euros in the first half of the 2010 fiscal year. The company said it expects to report a profit in the second half.

Renault advanced 60.5 cents, or 1.9%, to 32.17 Euros, snapping a two-day loss. Russia and France agreed on a recapitalization of OAO AvtoVAZ that includes increased Russian state financial aid to the carmaker, the French government said in a statement Friday. Renault owns 25% of Avtovaz.

Michelin, the world's second-largest tyremaker, climbed 1.75 Euros, or 3.5%, to 52.02 Euros after the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts Index sank 4.3% Thursday.

BELGIUM

In Brussels the Bel 20 closed out the week at 2,456.82, a gain or 1.25% on the day.

Dutch telecoms group KPN is selling its fixed Belgian business-to-business and carrier activities, including its fibre network to Mobistar for 65 million Euros ($97 million).

"With this transaction, KPN has decided not to invest further in the Belgian B2B market, given the generally highly unfavourable competitive environment," KPN said on Wednesday. The former Dutch telecoms monopoly said it expected to close the transaction in the first quarter of 2010.

KPN chief executive Ad Scheepbouwer last week said he was open to a sale of the activities. "In the Belgian market we have been unduly squeezed. We have not really had a chance to compete," he said at the time.

Mobistar said the transaction would have a positive impact on its revenues and earnings before interest taxes, depreciation andn amortization (EBITDA) as of 2010.

Belgian pharmaceutical group UCB has begun discussions with banks to refinance loans it agreed three years ago to buy German peer Schwarz Pharma.

UCB, a central nervous system and immunology specialist, bought Schwarz for 4.4 billion Euros ($6.64 billion) in 2006 and concluded a syndicated loan agreement.

At the end of 2008 it had drawn down 2.85 billion Euros from total facilities of 3.27 billion. Some 300 million of it expires in October 2010, the rest at the end of 2011. UCB has been working on diversification of its debt and extending its maturity portfolio. It has already issued a 500 million Euro convertible bond in September and a retail bond totalling 750 million Euros in October.

A spokeswoman said on Thursday that it was willing to use favourable windows of opportunity to complete the refinancing.

"In this context, we have initiated discussions with our core relationship banks," the spokeswoman said.

Tuesday, the National Bank of Belgium said in a report that the business confidence indicator stood at minus 8.8 in November, up from minus 14.2 in October. This was the eighth consecutive month of increase in business confidence.

Manufacturing industrial confidence increased to minus 8.6 in November from minus 15.8 in October. At the same time, the building industry confidence rose to minus 10 from minus 10.7 in October.

Meanwhile, the confidence indicator in trade sector stood at minus 10 , up from minus 17.1 in October.

THE NETHERLANDS

Anstredam's AEX finished the trading session Friday at 309.52, up 0.91%.

Eventhough the acute threat to global financial stability has abated, the situation still remains vulnerable with market sentiment still heavily reliant on support measures, the Dutch central bank said on Monday.

"The improved market sentiment relies heavily on the exceptional support measures, which have a disruptive effect and therefore need to be phased out in time," the De Nederlandsche Bank said in its semi-annual Overview of Financial Stability report.

Mounting budget deficits and pressure on some currencies increase the chances of "a disorderly adjustment process with sharp interest and exchange rate movements," the bank warned. "The US still has a sizable current account deficit and there is uncertainty about the stability of the US Dollar."

The central bank said that the financial sector was still under considerable strain, with credit losses rising due to the recession and with profitability under pressure, while it noted that liquidity buffers are still "too small" relative to the risks involved.

"Overall, the situation at financial institutions continues to be critical, what with the new risks entailed by exposures to specific sectors, like the commercial property market," the DNB said. Financial institutions must prepare themselves to return to regular financing at competitive conditions once stimulus measures are removed, it said.

The central bank stressed the need to unwind stimulus measures gradually and in a timely manner to avoid undesirable side-effects like market disruption, and risky behavior on the part of investors in the long-term.

"In the short-term, authorities are faced with the heavy challenge of unwinding the extraordinarily expansive support measures - including broadened access to liquidity, expansive monetary policy, guarantee schemes and capital support," it said.

"At the same time, the dismantling of support measures is not without risks. To contain these risks, careful timing is imperative and the various support measures must be phased out in the right order."

Thursday, the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics said the household spending dropped 3.4% year-on-year in September, but slower than a 3.8% fall in the previous month. This is the ninth consecutive month of decline in consumer spending.

Consumer expenditure on goods dropped 5.4%, while that on services fell 1.6%. Spending on durable consumer goods slipped 4.9%, and spending on food, beverages and tobacco was down 1.1%.

AUSTRIA

The ATX in Vienna rounded out the week Friday at 2,527.17, 0.73% to the upside.

Tuesday, a report by Statistics Austria said the production index, which measures manufacturing and construction output, dropped a seasonally adjusted 1% in September from August.

During this period, industrial output fell 0.6%, while construction output was down 2%.
 
On a working day adjusted basis, the production index slipped 13.7% year-on-year, reflecting a 16% drop in industrial output and a 4.5% fall in construction output.

Among the main industrial groups, durable consumer goods showed the biggest fall in output of 2.9% on a monthly basis. Year-on-year, capital goods showed the maximum fall of 22.8%.

Tuesday, the Statistics Austria said in a report that overnight stays by guests spent in accommodation facilities dropped 1% year-on-year in the May to October period to 61.7 million.

During this period, overnight stays by non-resident guests dropped 2.6% to 41.82 million. However, the stays by residents rose 2% and reached an all-time high of 19.88 million.

In October, overnight stays by tourists stood at 6.1 million, which represents a 1.5% fall from the same month a year earlier.

SWITZERLAND

Zurich's SMI ended the week on 6,336.66, gains of 0.85% on Friday's session.

Employment in Switzerland increased slightly in the third quarter after falling in the second quarter, the Federal Statistical Office said Tuesday.

The number of non-farm payrolls rose 0.2% year-on-year to 3.963 million in the third quarter. Employment in the industrial sector dropped 2.6%, while rose 1.2% in the services sector.

However a 39% fall in vacancies suggests that employment is less likely to improve in the fourth quarter. In addition, the outlook index declined 3.9%.

The UBS consumption indicator for Switzerland rose to 0.87 in October from a revised 0.67 recorded in September, the UBS bank said Tuesday. It remained below its long-term average of 1.5, indicating a modest increase in private consumption year-on-year.

"The indicator has languished at low levels this year, and with unemployment on the rise, consumption spending is likely to suffer," the UBS said.

Among the five sub-indicators of the UBS consumption indicator, new car registrations and consumer sentiment improved in October, while hotel stays by Swiss nationals and retail sales declined.

Despite brightening economic prospects for Switzerland, UBS economists expect private consumption to weaken in the coming months. In particular, the expected rise in unemployment and the associated job uncertainty are likely to dampen consumer behavior. UBS thinks a recovery in private consumption is unlikely before the middle of next year.

UBS forecasts Swiss GDP growth of 1.7% in 2010 and 2.1% in 2011. Although private consumption will probably make only a modest contribution next year, UBS economists expect it to contribute to economic growth again in 2011.

SWEDEN

The OMX in Stockholm finished at 952.53, up 1.37% Friday.

Swedish financial officers are becoming increasingly more optimistic, consistent with the positive economic indicators, the latest SEB Financial Officers' survey showed Wednesday.

The Financial Officers' Index stood at 59 in September, up from 54 in August, and marked the highest reading since May 2008. The survey suggests that respondents are more neutral regarding the current business climate.

More financial officers are expecting volume growth to contribute to higher profitability in 2010, the survey found. Moreover, the officers also regarded price increases as more likely. While most respondents expect prices to be unchanged, about 46% expect them to rise over the next six months.

At the same time, more than 40% of financial officers said their companies were only mid way through the crisis. "This result has not changed significantly since our last survey in August and suggests that it may still take some time before companies fully recover despite the turnaround in the global economy", Disa Hammar, the co-author of the survey said.

The SEB's Financial Officers' Index, is a quarterly survey whose purpose is to reflect changes of sentiment in the financial environment and facilitate the understanding of economic and financial trends. The latest survey was carried out among 70 of Sweden's largest companies.

Consumer confidence in Sweden rose further for the seventh consecutive month in November, the National Institute of Economic Research said Wednesday. The confidence index climbed to 11.4 from 7.5 in the previous month.

The survey showed that confidence in personal finances and the Swedish economy improved in November. Moreover, household pessimism concerning unemployment trend continued to decline.

Moreover, the business confidence indicator rose by four points in November, and was up for the eighth consecutive month. All the sub sectors made a positive contribution to the index, but situation in the business sector remained weaker than normal. Employment continued to fall, but firms indicated that they would cut fewer staff.

Meanwhile, the economic sentiment indicator, which includes the consumer and manufacturing confidence, rose to 98.8 in November from 94.9 in the previous month.

Tuesday, the Statistics Sweden announced that producer prices decreased 1.8% year-on-year in October, compared to the 1.6% fall in the previous month. Economists expected a decline of 1.6%.

Month-on-month, producer prices slipped 0.4% in October, after falling 0.9% in September. Economists were looking for a decline of 0.1%.

Meanwhile, export prices dropped 2% on a yearly basis in September, after a 0.8% fall last month. Import prices dropped 3.2% compared to a 4% fall in the previous month. On a monthly basis, export prices fell 0.8%, while import prices declined 1.1%

NORWAY

On Oslo, the OBX completed the week at 323.46, up 1.94%.

Norway's economic growth accelerated in the third quarter, led by a recovery in exports, official data showed Tuesday.

Mainland gross domestic product, which excludes oil, gas and shipping, rose 0.5% sequentially in the third quarter after growing 0.3% in the second quarter, the Statistics Norway said. Economists had forecast 0.8% growth.

Total GDP rose 0.9% sequentially in the third quarter following a 0.9% decline in the previous quarter.

In a report released on Tuesday, the SEB bank said growth in mainland GDP, is likely to be somewhat above trend in 2010 and 2011. "Concerning overall GDP, however, investment in the oil sector is a key downside risk despite the strong rebound in oil prices." The Norges Bank is likely to raise interest rates somewhat more than it has stated, the SEB said.
 
Detailed data showed that petroleum activities and ocean transport rebounded by 2% and households final consumption growth steadied at 1.1%. government spending grew 1.2%, while gross fixed capital formation slipped 4.8%. Exports recovered strongly by growing 4.6%, while imports fell 0.8%.

In October, Norway's central bank became the first central bank in Europe to hike key policy rate since the financial crisis. It made a quarter point hike in key policy rate to 1.50%. The central bank had slashed interest rates by 4.5 percentage points between October 2008 and June this year.

The Norwegian jobless rate stood at 3.1% of the labor force during August to October, the Statistics Norway said in a report on Wednesday. The expected rate was 3.3%. The statistical office revised the unemployment rate for August, measured by the average of three months from July to September period, to 3.1% from 3.2%.

The Labor Force Survey showed that seasonally-adjusted figures for registered unemployed with the Labour and Welfare Organization remained stable at the same level as in August.

FINLAND

Helsinki's OMX rounded off a volatile week by closing at 6,190.97, up 1.47% for Friday's session.

Finnish mobile phone giant Nokia said Tuesday that it would reduce R&D activities in Japan, resulting in elimination of around 220 jobs, representing slightly more than 1% of Nokia's R&D personnel globally. The move aims to align its research and development operations in line with its focused portfolio of future products. A few days back, the company has announced 330 job cuts at R&D sites in Finland and Denmark.

Overall, Nokia has over 17,000 people employed in its R&D activities. However, the Japanese operation of Nokia Siemens Networks, Nokia's network infrastructure business, and Vertu, Nokia's handcrafted mobile phones for the luxury market, would not be affected and would continue uninterrupted.

The Finnish economic affairs ministry said in a report unveiled Thursday that the country's tourism industry should prepare for a period of low growth after a difficult year.

The government said in a statement however that the industry's outlook was positive when compared with current low demand.

According to the report the industry was in better financial shape than it had been after the early 1990s recession.

But Anneli Harju-Autti of the Lapland employment and economic development centre said there was no turn for the better on the horizon as far as jobs were concerned.

"As recently as a year ago there was a labour shortage, but this year one has seen oversupply," she added in the statement.

"This is reflected in a reduction in the use of temps."

The ministry said the industry had seen demand drop by 4.3% year-on-year in the January-to-September period, with its room occupancy rate plummeting below 50%.

Tuesday, the Statistics Finland announced that the jobless rate stood at 8.2% in October, up from a 5.8% recorded a year ago. Economists expected the jobless rate to be 8.1%. In September, the jobless rate was 7.3%.

The number of unemployed totaled 215,000 persons in October, larger than the 155,000 unemployed persons in the previous year. At the same time, the number of employed decreased to 2.4 million from 2.52 million last year.

Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate stood at 64.9% in October, down from 66.7% in September.

DENMARK

In Copenhagen the OMX closed out the session and the week at 327.28, up 0.46%.

Denmark's unemployment rate rose in October albeit to a lower level than expected following a surprisingly steep increase in September, while data for that month were revised lower, the statistics office said Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in October from a downwardly revised 4.0% in September and 3.7% in August and July, Statistics Denmark said.

Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% in October, from September's original reading of 4.1%.

Economists expect Danish unemployment to rise further as the labor market adjusts to the slowdown in global demand.

Still, Danish unemployment remains low relative to other European countries, a fact that economists partly attribute to the country's flexible labor market policies.

Late in 2007, Denmark was the first country in the European Union to enter recession.

Danish low-cost airline Cimber Sterling has received subscription orders for all 27.5 million new shares in its initial public offering this week, it said late on Thursday.

The offering will close on Friday after the company exercises an over-allotment option, a right to sell additional shares, Cimber Sterling Chairman Niels Erik Nielsen told Reuters.

'We have received orders for the minimum amount, which is between 275 million and 330 million crowns ($56-67 mln) so the IPO will go through,' Nielsen said. 'Now, a greenshoe will be offered Friday and tomorrow.'

IPOs this year by Asian and US companies have generally been well received by investors but offerings have been slow to take off in Europe.

Cimber Sterling will announce the final offer price on Monday, it said in a statement.

SPAIN

Madrid's IBEX finished Friday on 11,776.80, a gain of 1.02% on the day.

Spain's wind turbine sector will increasingly feel the consequences of the global economic crisis in the first half of next year, Jose Donoso, President of Spain's Wind Energy Association, or AEE, said Wednesday.

"In 2009, Spain maintained its level of activity, but the big question is what will happen from 2010 on," Donoso said at a press conference.

He added that about 1,800 megawatts in wind power generation capacity could be installed in Spain this year given the vast volume of turbine orders made in 2008 when oil prices reached record levels.

Most wind power projects take one to two years to be built, causing a time-lag effect between turbine orders and the completion of wind parks.

About 1,600 MW in wind power were installed in Spain last year.

Spain is home to Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologia, one of the world's top wind turbine manufacturers.

Spanish builder OHL said on Thursday it plans to propose a rights issue worth 199.4 million Euros ($301 million) at its shareholders meeting Friday, in the proportion of 1 new share for every 5 already held.

OHL's core shareholder Grupo Villar Mir has pledged to subscribe its part, taking up about 57.2% of the 16.6 million new shares to be issued at 12 Euros each, the construction and services group said.

Retail sales in Spain dropped 3.9% year-on-year in October, the Madrid based National Statistics Institute reported on Thursday. Economists had expected a 2.4% decrease. Adjusting for calendar effects, total retail sales slumped 2.7% compared with October 2008.

Excluding sales at service stations, the retail sales index dropped 3% annually. Sales at supermarkets were down 3.1%. Further, the statistical office said that employment in the retail sector decreased by 3.9% in October.

Region wise, sales were down across the Iberian nation excepting Castilla y Leon. The largest declines were witnessed in Castilla La Mancha and Valencia.

Producer prices in Spain fell 4.2% year-on-year in October, slower than the 5.4% decline in the previous month, Madrid based National Statistics Institute reported on Tuesday. Economists were looking for a 3.1% decrease. This is the tenth straight month in which producer prices have fallen.

Producer prices dropped 5.2% annually in manufacturing. Prices plummeted 24.1% in the manufacture of coke & refined petroleum products, while prices in the manufacture of basic metals fell 20.3%.

On a monthly basis, producer prices were flat in October compared to the 0.4% slump in the preceding month.

PORTUGAL

Lisbon's PSI General rounded off the week on 2,855.04, up 0.89%.

Portuguese cement producer Cimentos de Portugal said Wednesday its third-quarter net profit rose 64% on the year, with a strong performance in emerging markets outweighing weak construction activity in Spain and Portugal.

Cimpor, as the company is also known, said its net profit climbed to Eur70.7 million in the third quarter, up from a Eur43.2 million profit a year earlier.

Revenue dropped 2.9% to Eur552 million, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, decreased 3.7% to Eur159 million, the company said in a filling to the Portuguese stock market regulator.

In the first nine months of the year, Cimpor's net profit climbed to Eur177.8 million, up from Eur150.3 million a year earlier.

Cimpor said its geographical diversification helped it to achieve solid results in the nine-month period. While Portugal and Spain was a particularly weak spot, as the end of a decade-long construction boom took a heavy toll on cement demand, this was offset by a strong performance in Brazil, Egypt and South Africa, the company said.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index gained 282.83, or 1.3%, to 22,205.28 in Milan. The gauge fell 1.4% this week.

Banca Popolare di Milano rose 11 cents, or 2.2%, to 5.23 Euros. Italy's exposure to Dubai is "very limited" and the country has "no worries" about the issue, Bank of Italy Director General Fabrizio Saccomanni told reporters in Rome Friday. Banco Popolare SC (BP IM) added 10.5 cents, or 1.9%, to 5.6 Euros.

Bulgari gained 25.5 cents, or 4.2%, to 6.3 Euros, erasing Thursday's loss. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded the world's third-largest jeweler to "buy" from "neutral." BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research lifted its price estimate to 7 Euros from 6.6 Euros.

Credito Emiliano climbed 38.5 cents, or 7.8%, to 5.34 Euros, ending a three-day decline. Mediobanca Securities increased its price estimate to 6 Euros from 5.5 Euros and reiterated an "outperform" recommendation.

Fiat gained for the first time in four days, adding 21 cents, or 2.2%, to 9.85 Euros. Gruppo Banca Leonardo initiated coverage of the carmaker with a "buy" rating and a price estimate of 13.2 Euros. Exor SpA (EXO IM), Fiat's main shareholder, advanced 70 cents, or 5.8%, to 12.81 Euros.

Geox increased 6.25 cents, or 1.4%, to 4.7 Euros, a third gain this week. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded the shoemaker to "neutral" from "sell."

Intesa Sanpaolo added 4 cents, or 1.4%, to 2.91 Euros. Morgan Stanley reiterated an "overweight" rating on Italy's second-biggest bank, saying that "Intesa continues to be exposed to recovering operating trends in 2010 without disruptions related to funding issues."

Pirelli gained 1.4 cents, or 3.5%, to 41.7 cents after the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts Index sank 4.3% Thursday.

Safilo Group, the world's second-largest maker of eyewear, surged 4.1 cents, or 7.6%, to 58.1 cents. HAL Holding NV said it extended its offer to purchase Safilo's senior notes to Nov. 30 after getting tenders for 42.45% of the amount outstanding as of 5 p.m. local time Thursday.

Snai rose 16.25 cents, or 5.7%, to 3.04 Euros, snapping a three-day loss. The country's biggest racetrack manager said it received a binding offer from Bridgepoint Capital Ltd. and Axa Investment Managers Private Equity Europe SA regarding a reorganization of its betting and gaming activities.

UniCredit advanced for the first time in four days, adding 7 cents, or 3.1%, to 2.33 Euros. Italy's largest bank said in a statement that its exposure to Dubai World is "not material and therefore not relevant."

GREECE

In Athens, the Athex ended the day and the week at 2,257.43, up 1.44%.

Titan, Greece's biggest cement producer, said on Wednesday nine-month net profit fell 36.5% to 103.7 million Euros ($156.1 million), on slower construction activity in the Balkans and the United States.

The net profit was above the average forecast of 94.1 million Euros given in a Reuters poll of analysts.

Revenue declined 11.6% to 1.04 billion Euros, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation dropped 11.4% to 258 million Euros.

Titan, which operates in 12 countries, has said it is going down from full production capacity for the first time in the last 20 years as it focuses on cutting costs and reducing debt.

Greek bank shares fell as much as 7.0% on Wednesday on worries over funding and a weak economy with the CEO of the country's largest lender countering that the fears were overdone.

'The rumours in the last days regarding the impact of the economic crisis, especially in view of the gradual withdrawal of extraordinary liquidity support measures by the European Central Bank, are at least exaggerated,' Takis Arapoglou, CEO of National Bank said in a statement, speaking as the head of the Greek banks association.

Banks shares, with gains of 67% year-to-date, took a beating on Wednesday and underperformed the broader Greek market with traders saying central bank comments a day earlier had sparked the sell-off.

'The latest developments at a sovereign ratings level reignited concerns on how Greek banks' funding costs will be affected,' said Spyros Pantelias, general manager at Bank of Cyprus.

'But what we are seeing is an exaggeration. It's overdone, he said.'

At a parliament briefing on Tuesday, Bank of Greece chief George Provopoulos said the deterioration in public finances posed a risk of a downgrade by ratings agencies if measures were not taken to remedy the situation.

'If the downgrades of the country's credit ratings continue ... we will find ourselves in the terrifying position of not drawing liquidity from the ECB because of the risk (Greek) bonds may not be accepted (as collateral),' Provopoulos said.

Greek lenders had borrowed about 40 billion Euros ($60 billion) from the ECB so far this year, he said.

Greek banks have been making money trading bonds. They have piled on a carry trade -- funding government bonds in their portfolios with cheap 1.0% liquidity from the European Central Bank.

Relative to their size, Greek banks have been among the biggest users of ECB funding. The amount they have borrowed out of a total of about 665 billion Euros seems like an overallocation.

The sum amounts to about 6.3% of the total when Greece's 250 billion Euro economy accounts for about 2.5% of the Euro zone's GDP.

Banks have used mostly government bonds as collateral, with the carry trade earning them spreads of 3-4%. On top of this, they make capital gains when bond prices rise.

But downward pressures on Greek government paper and an eventual removal of the ECB's nipple has pressurised bank shares.

The cost of protecting Greek government debt against default jumped on Wednesday, according to data monitor CMA DataVision, as Greek assets remained under pressure on worries over funding and a weak economy.

The five-year credit default swap (CDS) on Greek government debt climbed to 193.6 basis points from 188.9 basis points at the New York close on Tuesday, CMA said.

This was still well off the peak of 285.1 bps hit in February during the height of the global economic turmoil, according to CMA.

This means it now costs 193,600 Euros per year to insure an exposure of 10 million Euros of Greek government bonds, up from 188,900 Euros on Tuesday.

The premium investors demand to hold 10-year Greek government bonds rather than Euro zone benchmark German Bunds rose to nearly 185 basis points earlier, its highest in five months, as the paper continued to underperform other "peripheral" Euro zone issuers.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 SABMiller was among the stocks in focus on Friday as the FTSEUK Markets 100 bounced back from its biggest drop since March.

Shares in the brewer rose 1.1% to £17.82, helped by beer data from South Africa showing signs of stabilisation.

Beer volumes last month fell 4.6% in SAB's home market, which provides nearly a fifth of its earnings. That was a small improvement on the 5% average decline for the year to date.

Separately, SAB was said to be the clear front-runner to buy Mexican peer Femsa Cerveza, with the auction expected to complete by January.

Heineken and Kirin of Japan are also thought to be interested in the brewer of Sol and Dos Equis, which analysts value at between $7.5bn and $9bn.

The FTSE 100 ended higher by 51.60, or 1%, to 5,245.73. Even after Thursday's sell-off, the rally trimmed the Footsie's weekly loss to 0.1%.

Banks led the rally as analysts played down the direct impact from Dubai World's debt standstill.

Barclays bounced 2.3% to 297¾p. Oriel Securities estimated that less than 1% of the group's loan book related to Dubai, though potential exposures within Barclays Capital were harder to quantify.

Royal Bank of Scotland led the blue-chip risers, advancing 5.2% to 34.73p.

But Standard Chartered, the bank widely thought to have the highest proportionate exposure to Dubai, ended with a gain of just 0.4% to £15.20.

International Power was once again a source of speculation, with the stock climbing 1.6% to 279¾p. The utility has been widely rumoured to be a potential target for GDF Suez.

Thomas Cook rose 4.7% to 216¼p before its full-year results on Monday. Cazenove upgraded the travel group to "outperform" on Thursday, saying current trading looked strong and balance sheet concerns have been exaggerated.

Cazenove was also positive on Tui Travel, up 2.4% to 243¾p, which reports on Tuesday.

Amec was up 3.1% to 793p before a strategy meeting, called Vision 2015, next week. Deutsche Bank repeated "buy" advice in anticipation, believing the meeting should focus investors on the long-term growth outlook.

Dragon Oil was up 2.4% to 410p after RiskMetrics, the independent financial risk consultant, recommended that shareholders accept a takeover offer from Dubai's state refiner.

Ahead of the shareholder vote next month, RiskMetrics said ENOC's offer of 455p for the 48% it does not own "looked reasonable". Dragon shareholders including Baillie Gifford have been trying to scupper the £2bn deal. Analysts dismissed concerns that ENOC's financing may be affected by Dubai World's potential default.

Holidaybreak was up 4.9% to 260p after full-year profit beat expectations. Broker Numis Securities added the travel group to its "buy" list.

Infrastructure group Hill & Smith gained 3.4% to 362p even after chairman David Grove raised £386,100 by selling 110,000 shares. Dealers also noted a director's share sale at Quadnetics, the security equipment maker, which was steady at 145p.

Having fallen nearly 19% this week, Gulf Keystone Petroleum rebounded 8.2% to 101¾p. The rally was apparently spurred by a CNN interview with executive chairman Todd Kozel.

Dealers also highlighted strong volume in fellow Iraqi explorer Sterling Energy, which rose 7.9% to 4.1p.

Hilton Food Group added 4.8% to 191¾p after the meat supplier announced an expansion into Denmark.

Packaging maker RPC Group rose 1.2% to 218¼p after interim results brought "buy" notes from Cazenove, Panmure Gordon and Collins Stewart.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped to a fresh four-month closing low Friday on continuing Yen strength and worries that unfolding financial troubles in Dubai may sink US stocks later in the global trading day.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 301.72 points, or 3.2%, to 9081.52, closing just a few points off its intraday low. The dismal finish was the biggest point decline for the index since Aug. 17, and its lowest closing level since July 13.

The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues lost 18.55 points, or 2.2%, to 811.01, its lowest closing level since April 1.

Trading volume was relatively robust at over 2.25 billion shares.

Stocks got off to a weak start after the Dollar briefly fell below Y85, setting a fresh 14-year low against the Yen early in the morning. As of the close of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the US currency was seen trading at 86.14 against the Japanese unit, down from 86.65 at Thursday's market close.

Thirty-one of 33 Topix subindexes ended in negative territory, with steel, nonferrous metal, and machinery making sectors absorbing the biggest% losses.

A Nikkei report that mining giant BHP Billiton has asked major Japanese steelmakers to accept a change in their pricing mechanism for coking coal to one linked to market prices hurt the sector. Nippon Steel lost 4.0% to Y310 and JFE Holdings sank 5.8% to Y2,765 on concerns that the new method could mean higher procurement costs.

Stronger Yen concerns hit major exporters hard, sending Honda Motor shares down 3.8% to Y2,660, and Sony shares down 4.4% to Y2,265. Canon fell 2.7% to Y3,200.

The Nikkei sharply extended its losses late in the session on a decline in Globex US stock futures. Wall Street trading resumes for a shorted session after Thursday's Thanksgiving Day holiday.

the first to be hit by the Dubai debt crisis because of major contracts tendered by Nakheel, Dubai World's property development unit. Taisei sank 7.1% to Y145, while Obayashi tumbled 8.7% to Y284.

December Nikkei 225 futures ended down 320 points, or 3.4%, at 9070 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

For the holiday-shortened week, the Nikkei dropped 4.4%, and is off 9.5% for the month with one trading day to go. Year-to-date, it is still up 2.5%.

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean shares tumbled 4.7% to close at a four-month low Friday as investors dumped risky assets on growing fears global financial institutions and markets would be severely hurt by a potential default by Dubai and its state-run companies.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, fell by the largest daily percentage amount since Jan. 15 to end at 1524.50, the lowest closing since July 29 when the index ended at 1524.32.

The Financial Supervisory Service said late Thursday that Korean financial companies' outstanding exposure to Dubai World and its affiliated companies totaled $32 million as of the end of September.

Foreigners sold a net KRW208.6 billion worth of stocks in the spot market and 14,273 contracts in the futures market.

But he added "I think Friday's stock selling was overdone. We still don't know the exact size of European banks' exposure to debts in Dubai and how this event will develop."

Renewed concerns about the health of international financial institutions knocked South Korean banks and brokerages.

KB Financial Group skidded 7.1% to KRW56,400, Woori Finance Holdings sank 11.6% to KRW13,300, and Shinhan Financial Group slid 6.3% to KRW44,150.

Construction firms were also hit hard by concerns that Dubai World's debt problem may dampen orders from Middle East if it affects the region's financing environment.

Hyundai Engineering & Construction declined 6.9% to KRW63,800, Daewoo Engineering & Construction sank 8.3% to KRW11,600, and Samsung C&T Corp. tumbled 8.1% to KRW43,450.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong shares tumbled almost five% Friday as investors were spooked after Dubai asked for a debt repayment delay for a key state-owned firm.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 1,075.91 points, or 4.84%, to 21,134.50 on turnover worth HK$107.51 billion.

The Hong Kong loss followed a global equity slump Thursday after Dubai's shock call to suspend the debt of Dubai World fuelled anxiety about excessive public borrowing.

The move has hit Hong Kong-listed banking shares as investors fret over the extent of their exposure to the unfolding debt crisis.

HSBC Holdings Plc, which is among Dubai World's creditors according to a person familiar with the situation, plunged 7.6%, after a 4.8% drop in London trading Thursday. Standard Chartered Plc, which makes most of its profits in emerging markets, slumped 8.6%. China Metal Recycling Holdings Ltd. slid 4.9% after waiving a stock lockup period for investors. PetroChina Co. led oil producers lower after crude prices fell.

The Hang Seng Index has surged 86% from this year's low on March 9. Shares on the gauge are priced at an average 16.6 times estimated profit, up from 10.6 times at the start of 2009, according to data.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks so- called H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, fell 5.1% to 12,472.13, its steepest decline since March 30.

CHINA

China's stocks fell, sending the benchmark index to its biggest weekly loss in three months, as a slump in commodity prices and share-sale concerns dragged raw- materials producers and financial companies lower.

Jiangxi Copper, China's biggest producer of the metal, dropped 8.7% and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation's biggest maker of the lightweight metal, slid 4.3%. Zijin Mining Group Co., the nation's biggest gold producer, declined 7.7% as an investor sold shares in the company. Bank of China Ltd., which said this week it's studying options to replenish funds, slid 1.9%.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 74.72, or 2.4%, to 3,096.27 at the close. The gauge tumbled 6.4% this week, the most since the five days to Aug. 14, on concern banks will sell more shares to boost capital adequacy depleted by record loan growth. The CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, declined 3% to 3,382.51.

China's five largest banks have submitted plans to regulators for raising money after unprecedented lending eroded their capital, according to four people with knowledge of the matter this week.

Ping An Insurance, China's second-biggest insurer, cut its stock holdings by about 10 billion RMB ($1.5 billion), the Shanghai Securities News reported Friday, citing brokerages and fund managers. Ping An reduced shareholdings last week alone by 7 billion RMB because it became bearish about the stock market, it said.

Jiangxi Copper lost 8.7% to 41.02 RMB. Aluminum Corp., also known as Chalco, fell 4.3% to 14.08 RMB. Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., China's biggest producer of refined zinc, slid 6.9% to 14.24 RMB.

Zijin Mining dropped 7.7% to 10 RMB. The company said billionaire Chen Fashu sold 146 million of the company's shares.

Bank of China retreated 2.2% to 4.04 RMB. China Construction Bank Corp., the country's second-largest bank, fell 1.2% to 5.85 RMB. China Minsheng Banking Corp., the nation's first privately owned bank, fell 4.4% to 7.53 RMB, extending Thursday's 5.7% plunge.

Zhejiang Feida Environmental Science & Technology Co. led Chinese alternative energy-related stocks higher on the expectation the government's plan to reduce emissions will boost demand for clean energy.

Feida Environmental jumped the 10% daily limit to 16.12 RMB. Dongfang Electric Corp., a manufacturer of wind and nuclear power equipment, added 1.3% to 45.25 RMB. Nanfang Ventilator Co., a manufacturer of ventilators for nuclear power stations, climbed 1.6% to 42.97 RMB.

China's Cabinet said Thursday it will cut output of carbon dioxide per unit of gross domestic product by between 40% and 45% from 2005. The country is expanding the development of renewable energy, including solar and wind power, to stimulate its economy and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Beijing Orient Landscape surged 99% to 116.50 RMB in its Shenzhen debut. The company sold 14.5 million shares at an offer price of 58.6 RMB each.

BOE Technology Group, China's biggest maker of liquid-crystal-display panels, retreated 8.8% to 4.96 RMB after a three-day suspension. The company said it plans to raise up to 10 billion RMB through a private placement of as many as 2.3 billion shares at no less than 4.64 RMB each.

Dazhong Transportation slid 5.7% to 11.70 RMB. Guotai Junan Securities Co. said it sold 78.95 million shares of the company, reducing its stake to 6.76% from 11.77%, according to a filing to Shanghai's stock exchange.

Guangdong Haid Group, a manufacturer of animal fees, rose 36% to 38.05 RMB on its first day of trading in Shenzhen. The company sold 56 million shares at 28 RMB each.

TAIWAN

Taiwan shares ended at a three-week low Friday on the fallout from Dubai World seeking a debt moratorium and declines on regional bourses, which hit local financial companies.

The Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange fell 248.25 points, or 3.2%, to 7490.91. The settlement is the lowest since the Taiex closed at 7463.05 Nov. 6, and is the largest percentage drop since the 3.5% decline on July 13.

Turnover totaled NT$141.12 billion, up from the previous session's NT$126.27 billion. There were 2,569 decliners, 413 gainers, and 49 closed unchanged.

Taiwan stocks tracked broad losses in the region and a sharp selloff in Europe Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 3.2% lower and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 4.4% at 0643 GMT.

Several Taiwanese financial institutions, including Chinatrust Financial Holding and Cathay Financial Holding, said Friday they have extended loans to Dubai World.

The financial stocks subindex fell 4.7%. Cathay Financial shed 3.8% to NT$56.0 and Chinatrust Financial fell 6.1% to NT$18.40.

THE PHILIPPINES

Philippine share prices closed 1.45% lower Friday with investors spooked by debt woes of the state-run Dubai World conglomerate, dealers said.

The composite index shed 44.85 points to 3,044.97, while the all shares index lost 1.0% or 19.21 points to 1,891.51.

A total of 2.27 billion shares worth P2.64 billion (P56.11 million) changed hands, with 80 issues down, 29 up and 64 unchanged.

The peso traded at 47.082 to the Dollar in the morning.

Markets tumbled across Asia on Friday, following global equity markets down on fears of a widespread default after Dubai issued a shock call to suspend the debt of its key state company.

Manila, where markets will be closed on Monday for a public holiday, followed suit.

Top-traded Philex Mining fell 6.49% to P18, while Century Peak Metal Holdings was down 5.71% to P6.60.

Philippine Long Distance Telephone was off 1.34% to P2,575.

SINGAPORE

The STI was closed Friday for a Public Holiday.

THAILAND

Thailand's SET lost 0.8% to its lowest close since 4 November - 680.37.

Investors in Bangkok unloaded shares in firms thought to have exposure to Dubai after the authorities there said two companies planned to delay repayment on billions of Dollars of debt as a first step toward restructuring.

Developer Raimon Land, whose 15% shareholder Istithmar Hotels is a unit of Dubai World, fell 3.1% and two firms with projects in Dubai, builder Italian-Thai and Power Line Engineering, dropped almost 3%.

The biggest lender, Bangkok Bank, and fourth-ranked Kasikornbank both lost more than 1% while Siam Commercial Bank was almost 1% lower.

The shock economic crash of Dubai's giant state-owned holding firm Dubai World is unlikely to have any impact on the Thai economy, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Friday.

"The broken bubble economy in Dubai is an old story and it has been a long time happening. The economic crisis in Dubai is different from what happened in Asia a decade ago," Mr Korn said.

Thailand's economy was recovering and would not be affected.  All key economic indicators were positive, there was no sign of bubble economy in the property sector as land prices  and real estate sales volume were at normal levels.

The prices of shares in the Stock Exchange of Thailand were up by 60% from the beginning of this year  He was confident the Dubai crisis would not affect other countries in the Middle East which were Thailand's new export markets.

That being said, Nawarat Patanakarn Pcl, a Thai construction company, dropped 2.6%. Nawarat has about 11 million baht ($330,977) of uncollectible bills for its projects in Dubai, Vajraput Vajrabhaya, the company's general manager for new business and strategic planning department, said by phone Friday. It already set provisions of about 9 million baht on that amount, he said.

INDONESIA

The Jakarta Composite Index was closed Friday for a Public Holiday.

MALAYSIA

The KL Bourse was closed Friday for a Public Holiday.

INDIA

Indian shares fell Friday as investors -rattled by a debt restructuring announcement at Dubai's largest corporate entity -sold banks, real estate and construction stocks on fears of exposure to the debt-laden emirate.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-share Sensitive Index slipped as much as 3.8% to 16,210.44 during the session, but later recovered some losses on bargain buying to end down 1.3% at 16,632.01.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty dropped 1.3% to 4,941.75.

Total traded volume on the BSE rose to 53.45 billion Rupees ($1.14 billion) from Thursday's 44.98 billion Rupees. Decliners outnumbered gainers 2,023 to 735, while 44 stocks were unchanged.

Private lender ICICI Bank fell 1.7% to 851.25 Rupees and State Bank of India slipped 0.5% to 2,242.50 Rupees. The BSE bankex index, which fell as much as 5.3% in intraday trade, closed down 1.4%.

The BSE realty index plummeted 7.0% during the session, but later ended down 0.6% due to bargain buying.

Larsen & Toubro--India's biggest engineering and construction company by revenue--tumbled 2.7% to 1,586.50 Rupees, while infrastructure company Jaiprakash Associates fell 3.1% to 214.50 Rupees.

Among other index heavyweights, energy giant Reliance Industries fell 1.5% to 1,048.90 Rupees while Infosys Technologies lost 2.5% to end at 2,328.30 Rupees.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market suffered its biggest one-day fall in five months on Friday after news of Dubai World's debt restructuring plan triggered a plunge in European markets.

Australian banks were in the spotlight after their offshore peers suffered from their exposure to Dubai World.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 136.5 points, or 2.9%, at 4572.1 after hitting a three-week low of 4562.7. Volume was above average, although inflated by Thursday's options expiry.

Wall Street was expected to dive when US investors returned for an abbreviated session after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday.

S&P 500 futures were down more than 2.3% in Friday's Asian session, while the Nikkei 225 closed down 3.2% and the Hang Seng was down 3.5%.

With many equity markets in the Middle East and Asia on holiday on Friday, traders said they expected some additional fallout from Dubai next week.

Financials led broad-based falls in Australian equities, with National Australia Bank down 4.0% to A$27.01, QBE Insurance down 3.1% to A$21.73 and Macquarie down 5.1% to A$45.34.

Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank and Macquarie moved Friday to distance themselves from any material exposure to Dubai. However, Commonwealth Bank of Australia was coy, saying that "it's not appropriate for CBA to discuss confidential client information."

According to IG Markets, the S&P/ASX 200 financials index could fall to 4100.0 from 4461.6 at Friday's close, based on a "head and shoulders" pattern on the charts.

But analysts said the Dubai World debt restructure was a "storm in a teacup" relative to the Lehman Bros collapse that torched financial markets last year.

They also downplayed the direct negative implications for the Australian share market.

Southern Cross Equities saw it as positive for Qantas and Asciano, as they previously faced stiff competition from Emirates Airlines and Dubai Ports. However, Qantas fell 4.2% to A$2.53 and Asciano fell 3.6% to A$1.605 on Friday.

The broker said Leighton Holdings might suffer a negative sentiment impact as its A$900 million Al Habtoor acquisition now appeared ill timed. Leighton fell 4.0% to A$34.77 on Friday.

BHP Billiton was the biggest drag on the market, falling 3.4% to A$40.39, while Rio Tinto fell 3.0% to A$68.55 and Newcrest Mining fell 2.8% to A$36.93.

However, there was evidence of bargain hunting among listed property trusts, with Westfield and Stockland down 1.7% and 2.0%, respectively, albeit well above their intraday lows.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares closed sharply weaker Friday, hurt by rising risk aversion after Dubai World asked for more time to meet its debt obligations.

Williamson said the market was likely to remain jittery until the situation with Dubai World becomes clearer.

The benchmark NZX-50 ended down 1.1%, or 33 points, at 3094.44, with weak sentiment hitting hard at large cap stocks in particular.

Telecom shed 0.8% to NZ$2.40 while Contact Energy fell 1.9% to NZ$5.84. Construction company Fletcher Building shed 0.9% to NZ$7.73.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, one of the few gainers, got a lift from the sharply weaker New Zealand Dollar, adding 0.9% to NZ$3.22.

Whiteware maker Fisher & Paykel Appliances ended down 7.7% at NZ$0.60 after it reported a large net loss in the first half of the year. 
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesGold and oil prices fell on Friday as risk appetite weakened amid concerns over the wider market implications of a potential debt default in Dubai.

Gold dropped to a session low of $1,136.80 a troy ounce but later recovered to $1,176.30, down 1.4% on the day.

Holdings in gold exchange-traded funds have reached record levels, and the US mint has suspended sales of American Eagles the world's most popular gold coin, after running out of stock due to strong investor demand.

Gold rose 2.3per cent over the week, reaching a record $1,194.90 on Thursday.

In the oil markets, Nymex January West Texas Intermediate dropped $5.57 a barrel at one point on Friday but later recovered to trade $2 lower at $75.96.

The spread between US crude prices and the European benchmark ballooned on Friday due to rising US stock levels. ICE January Brent recovered from a low of $73.70 to trade 21 cents up at $77.20 a barrel. Over the week, WTI fell 1.9% while Brent was flat.

Sugar prices rose strongly amid ongoing concerns about bad weather affecting output in Brazil, the world's largest producer. Over the week, Liffe March white sugar gained 3.3% to $617.7 a tonne and ICE March raw sugar added 1.3% to 22.76 cents a Pound. Premiums for white sugar over raw have risen sharply as buyers in India and Pakistan are expected to increase imports of the processed sweetener.

The Baltic Dry index fell 11.8% over the week to 3,974 points as the global benchmark for freight costs extended its correction after hitting a 2009 high in the previous week.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 Turbulence of the kind not seen since the dark days of the credit crunch returned to currency markets this week after questions were asked of the stability of emerging market debt.

It should have been a relatively quiet week with the US effectively on holiday from Thursday onwards for Thanksgiving.

But the lack of Stateside trade only exacerbated volatility on foreign exchanges after Dubai, the Gulf state, asked creditors of its Dubai World holding company for a six-month standstill on debt repayments.

This raised the spectre of sovereign default and reminded investors of the risks of trading in countries that run huge deficits.

On Thursday and during much of Friday, many emerging market currencies sold off sharply.

The South African rand was down nearly 3% against the Dollar while the Turkish lira fell 2.4% and the Hungarian forint shed 3.1%.

The shift in risk sentiment saw carry trades unwound and higher yielding units like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars fell back over the last two days of the week - the Aussie down 2.9% versus the US Dollar and the Kiwi off 3.3%.

But the Dubai fall-out was only one half of the story this week.

Risk trades were given the green light on Tuesday after minutes from the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting revealed slight forecast adjustments towards greater optimism for growth while appearing less worried about inflation.

In the industry, this week has been known as a "Pollyanna twist" in that the Fed might be setting itself up to defend easy money. The Fed is factoring more of a 'hope' or best-case scenario into the forecasts than a 'best guess,' perhaps to make later delays in policy tightening seem more sensible.

So, in spite of the Dubai shock, the Dollar over the week remained subdued - indeed, risk appetite began to return Thursday and equity markets in Europe recovered some of Thursday's sharp losses.

The Dollar fell to a 14-year low versus the Yen at Y84.83. By midday in New York Thursday, it stood at Y86.95, down 2.2% over the week.

The Euro remained 0.8% higher on the week at $1.4985 while Sterling remained flat at $1.6494.

The Yen's rise continued to provoke comments from Japanese officials about the one-sided nature of the currency's move.

Even the threat from Hirohisa Fujii, finance minister, that disorderly currency movements would be met with "appropriate action" did little to halt the Yen's march higher.

It was up 1.9% over the week against the Euro to Y129.62 and 2.7% versus Sterling to Y142.86.

Vietnam's Dong fell 2.6% to 18,286 against the Dollar over the week after the country's central bank devalued the currency and lifted interest rates from 7 to 8% in an effort to narrow the gap between spot rates and black market rates.
 
South Africa's rand fell sharply to a 3-week low against the Dollar on Friday as investors dumped riskier assets amid debt woes in Dubai before staging a strong recovery on profit-taking in later trade.

The Rand traded 1.12% firmer at 7.4111 against the Dollar compared to Thursday's close at 7.4950.

The local currency had stumbled 2% to 7.6450 earlier on Friday, its weakest level since November 5, tracking a slump in global markets as concerns over Dubai's debt crisis prompted a sell-off amongst investors.

And rounding off currencies this week as always here in China; the US Dollar's rebound against the Euro drove China's RMB lower against the US unit late Friday, despite the central parity remaining flat.

On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar ended at CNY6.8284, up from Thursday's close of CNY6.8265. It traded between CNY6.8270 and CNY6.8309.

The People's Bank of China set the Dollar-RMB central parity rate at 6.8269, just above 6.8268 Thursday.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's central bank drained 30 billion RMB ($4.4 billion) from the money market on Thursday through 91-day bond repurchase agreements, traders said.

This is in addition to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) draining of 46 billion RMB via the sale of three-month bills late on Thursday.

On Tuesday, the PBOC drained 11 billion RMB via a sale of one-year bills, and mopped up another 40 billion RMB through 28-day bond repurchase agreements.

Since a total of 125 billion RMB in PBOC bills and repos will mature this week, the PBOC appears set to conduct a net drain of 2 billion RMB from the market for the week.

The central bank conducted a net drain of 93 billion RMB from the market last week, having drained a combined net 663 billion RMB over the previous six weeks as it stepped up a fight against excessive liquidity in the Chinese system, partly propelled by renewed inflows of speculative funds into China.

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Chinese banks are likely to lend 5-8 trillion RMB ($730 billion-$1.2 trillion) next year, a senior lawmaker said on Thursday, suggesting that credit growth could fall well below both the 2009 total and market expectations.

Banks answered the government's call this year to issue a flood of credit to help fight off the global financial crisis, putting them on track for a record of about 9.5 trillion RMB in new loans.

Few analysts think that level is sustainable, but forecasts for next year have centred on a range of 7-8 trillion RMB as many infrastructure projects started this year will continue to have big financing needs.

But Yin Zhongqing, deputy head of the finance and economic committee under the National People's Congress, said the threshold for maintaining sufficient liquidity could be a good deal lower.

'It is hard to continue (to support the economy) if new loans are below 5 trillion RMB next year, but a level higher than 8 trillion RMB will pose serious inflationary pressure,' he told Reuters.

'I think 5 to 8 trillion RMB in new loans next year would reflect the appropriately loose monetary policy,' he said.

Yin's committee holds no direct responsibility for monetary policy but has input into government policy-making.

Establishing a loan target for next year is expected to be an important agenda item at the government's Central Economic Work Meeting. The annual gathering, convened to lay out priorities for the year ahead, is due to take place in the coming weeks.

The loan target itself, though, may only be a rough guideline. The government aimed to have 'at least' 5 trillion RMB in new loans this year, a mark it has nearly doubled.

Underscoring that point, Yin said the focus of monetary policy next year would be on improving the loan structure by lending more to smaller firms, and not on capping the total amount of loans.

The wide M2 measure of money supply should rise by 20% next year, he said. That rate would be well below the record 29.4% annual growth clocked in October but above the government's target of 17% growth in past years.

Yin added that the central bank would have little scope to adjust interest rates in 2010 and would instead concentrate its efforts on open-market operations.

That echoed an opinion piece in the official China Securities Journal on Wednesday, which said that Beijing might choose to raise banks' reserve requirements next year rather than interest rates to strengthen liquidity management.

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China's banks are preparing to raise tens of billions of Dollars in additional capital to meet regulatory requirements following an unprecedented expansion of new loans this year, according to people familiar with the matter.

China's 11 largest listed banks will have to raise at least Rmb300bn ($43bn) to meet more stringent capital adequacy requirements and maintain loan growth and business expansion, according to estimates from BNP Paribas.

China's banking regulator has warned it would refuse approvals for expansion and limit banking operations if lenders did not meet new capital adequacy requirements, a move that has prompted the country's largest state-owned banks to prepare capital-raising plans for next year and beyond.

Expectations of giant cash calls from the listed Chinese banks spooked investors on Tuesday, helping to send the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down 3.45% on a day of record turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.

Following government orders to prop up the domestic economy in the face of the global crisis, Chinese banks extended a record Rmb8,920bn in loans in the first 10 months of the year, up by Rmb5,260bn from the same period a year earlier.

This unprecedented loan expansion resulted in a record fall in their core capital adequacy rates from just over 10% at the end of last year to 8.89% by the end of September, a drop that worries regulators.

Bank of China has been the most aggressive lender this year, adding more than Rmb1,000bn in new loans in the first half of the year alone.

The bank told the Financial Times on Tuesday that it was "actively considering various options to replenish capital to achieve its sustainable development".

BNP Paribas estimates BoC would have to raise Rmb137bn to maintain its capital adequacy rates into next year and beyond.

Credit Suisse estimates that Bank of Communications, the country's fifth-largest lender by assets, in which HSBC holds close to 20%, will have to raise about Rmb27bn over the next year.

China Minsheng Bank raised $3.8bn in an initial public offering in Hong Kong last week while Industrial Bank and China Merchants Bank plan to raise Rmb18bn and Rmb22bn respectively through rights issues to boost their capital.

The banking regulator said the vast majority of Chinese commercial banks met current capital adequacy requirements but lenders were expected to conduct reviews of their asset quality and ensure they continued to meet regulatory requirements.

In the aftermath of last year's financial crisis, the banking regulator has introduced so-called dynamic provisioning and capital adequacy requirements that are tailored for each bank and take into account the quality of a bank's assets and capital as well as the quantity.

The banks will be able to raise money through a variety of methods, including capital injections from existing shareholders such as state holding companies, selling new shares to the public or by issuing bonds. The capital-raising is unlikely to dilute the state's ownership in the banks.

On Monday, the regulator ordered banks to maintain a "stable and sustained" rate of new lending, without any major jumps or falls, until the end of the year.

************************************

Beijing is facing a growing backlash from prominent figures in business and academia over claims that there has been creeping renationalisation in parts of the economy during the last year.

China's economy has recovered sharply in recent months as a result of an unprecedented expansion of government-directed bank lending, which has largely been channelled to state-owned enterprises.

However, critics say that the stimulus measures have also been accompanied by the state reasserting control over some sections of the economy, which could hurt the country's long-term growth prospects.

"Before the global economic crisis we still felt like we were moving continuously towards a more market-oriented and liberalised economy, but the government's stimulus programme has pushed that trend backwards," Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, one of the country's 10 largest property developers, said in an interview.

"We are seeing this in real estate but it is much worse in other industries where private players are being crushed."

The dominance of state-owned enterprises is being reasserted in a range of industries, including airlines, steel and coal-mining at the expense of private ownership - a phenomenon that has been called "guojin mintui", translated as "the state advances as the private sector recedes".

Most of the country's privately owned airlines that were set up in recent years have been absorbed by loss-making state competitors in virtual hostile takeovers, while Rizhao Steel, a prominent private steel company, agreed to sell a majority stake to a state-owned rival under strong political pressure.

While Beijing has not advocated renationalisation as a goal, officials and businesspeople say the government's policies have had that effect, particularly since the onset of the global crisis last year.

"The state monopoly on market entry for many sectors is caused by the insufficient reform of our political system," according to Liu Jipeng, professor at China University of Political Science and Law who helped draft China's state assets law.

Mr Liu said an important factor in the change of heart in Beijing on privatisation was the fear that China could see the rise of its own version of the Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who was jailed in 2005 in what many observers saw as Kremlin retaliation for his growing involvement in politics.

The Chinese government has already taken some steps to try to defuse fears of a wave of nationalisations and has set up a group under Zhang Dejiang, vice-premier, to find ways to support small and medium-sized companies.

State media have reported the issue has been included among six main topics expected to be discussed in coming weeks by China's Communist leaders during their annual closed-door Economic Work Meeting, which sets the economic agenda for the forthcoming year.

In another sign of the complicated relationship between the Chinese state and private industry, the Communist party school in eastern Jiangsu province said earlier this year that it was launching a course specifically aimed at the children of successful private entreprenEurs.

The planned curriculum mixed financial and economic courses with instruction on party history and other political education. The course was to have started last month, but officials at the school said that it had been delayed.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 So, how are things shaping up for next week?

Dubai, jobs data, Black Friday results and a chance for Congress to throw fireballs at Fed chief Ben Bernanke: The U.S. stock market's path to glory is fraught with peril next week.

If Dubai's debt woes intensify and prompt a retreat from riskier assets, Friday's painful drop will carry through into next week.

Investors also will contend with any surprises from a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's renomination to a second term. The hearing could provide fodder for Wall Street at a time when the central bank is facing scrutiny in Congress for its bailout of large financial institutions during the crisis.

In a busy week for data, Friday's employment report for November will be the main event with job losses expected to decrease from October. Investors will also get an early view of how retailers fared during Black Friday -- often the busiest shopping day of the year.

Both the job market and consumer spending remain among the weakest links in the economy and could potentially stymie the burgeoning recovery. Encouraging data on that front could fuel the rally that has pushed the Dow and S&P to 13-month highs.

The financial market fallout from the Dubai debt saga has included the biggest one-day drop in the FTSEurofirst since April and a rebound in volatility (eg VIX jumps nearly 19%, DAX volatility rose 14% from 14-month lows earlier this week).

Risk/reward considerations at this point in the year may limit investor interest in buying on dips and leave the downside exposed if stock market volatility persists, all the more so given some relatively high price/earnings ratios - European stocks average P/E ratio recently reached levels last year in early 2006.

That said, better-than-expected Q3 company results have started to feed through to upgrades to analysts' earnings forecasts - which could see P/E ratios ease and offer some support to stocks in the weeks and months ahead.

Peripheral euro zone spreads are already widening in the run up to next Thursday's ECB meeting at which the central bank will spell out more clearly the terms of the next 12-month refinancing operation and its exit strategy further out.

Its plan to tighten standards for ABS used as collateral in the repo operations has already affected bond markets/spreads and there will be repercussions for all asset classes if the central bank opts to do anything but conduct the operation at a fixed rate of 1% or lays out a more aggressive plan to unwind its credit easing than markets are pricing in after hearing the Bundesbank's warning on the scale of writedowns that German banks could face over the next year.

The Dollar's latest lurch lower may not have been as dramatic as in March, but the losses are notable for having taken it to 14-year lows against the Yen, and past key levels such as $1.50 per euro and parity against the Swiss Franc.

Equally notable has been some dissonance in official comments on the US currency which foreign exchanges have taken as a green light to sell dollars/buy Yen. If the move gathers steam, policymakers may change their mind about just how orderly the currency moves are - not least as implied volatility has been rising across the board. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's confirmation hearings will be a chance for the markets to see if he is inclined to repeat, or go further than, the rare comments on the dollar which he made on 16 November.

Unemployment rates and inflation have so far clearly favored keeping ultra-accommodative monetary policy in place in most countries (RBA, which meets next week, being a notable exception).

Any signs of improvement in German jobs data on Tuesday, French ILO unemployment on Thursday and the all-important US non-farm payrolls, which come out on Friday, a day after Obama's job forum, will therefore shape market thinking of when central banks can begin to unwind accommodative policy.

On the inflation side of the equation, the key will be how inclined central bankers are to look past today's relatively benign rates (Euro zone inflation data out next week) to the impact that base effects will start to have on headline inflation rates in the months ahead and how inclined they are to fret about signals such as breakeven rates edging higher, as has been the case in the Euro zone.

While the financial sector has come a long way from the meltdown of last year, WestLB's problems, the situation in the Greek banking sector and the Bundesbank's writedown warning highlight that the sector is not yet out of the woods.

Dubai's debt repayment delay has reignited fears over credit, hurting higher yielding assets and spurring flight-to-quality trades.

This all signals the continued sensitivity of higher-yielding assets to bad news concerning banks' balance sheets, and government plans to tighten regulation of the sector will if anything help to keep the core and the more liquid government bonds well bid versus their lower rated sovereign counterparts.

All told, it is going to be a very interesting week ahead, particularly because as I mentioned at the outset of this Newsletter, the US has been 'partying' while the rest of the world tries to absorb the implications of Dubai.

I read with horror this morning one very Senior Analyst that wrote (and I quote him 'verbatim'):

"If we're higher next week, it's very bullish for the remainder of the year. We don't think there will be any major sell-off before the end of the year. There are still institutions that are trailing the market and they're going to use all those dips as buying opportunities."

Absolute drivel in my humble opinion!

This year's run-up leaves the market in an even more dangerous place than it was in March, for sure.

Indeed, the fears of a possible debt default at Dubai World is the catalyst for an "overdue correction" in equities and risk assets - and as those that read my Newsletters know, this is a long overdue correction - there is no escaping this.

Call me a 'bear', but I feel that the 'bulls' are rampantly out of control and we need an 'adjustment' of sorts before the year is out.
 
In fact, I think we need a full-blown correction, but the way the media spin is working currently, it could only be something as serious as Dubai that reminds people that we are not out of the woods yet, in fact, we could be about to go back as deep in the forest as we were in October 2007.
 
Dubai World this week; what company next?
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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