Financial Page International

29 May 2010 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
What have Scotland, Sweden, Denmark, Mexico, Lithuania, The US of A, Portugal, Japan and Saskatchewan in Canada got in common?
 
Quite simply, they all reported this week that unemployment is still rising - and at quite a pace in some of those places!
 
I know; I know; I keep repeating this mantra that we are not out of the woods until unemployment stabilizes and then starts to consistently fall, but I cannot over-emphasize this point - no matter what media guru's say about everything looking positive, the fundamentals remain far from sound and as such we have to remain concerned and cautious.
 
We saw markets tumble Monday and Tuesday - panic induced by Spanish Banks and North Korea/South Korea tensions.
 
In theory, markets in Europe could have (some may say should have) corrected 10% on Tuesday with the bout of negativity coming out of Europe.
 
But I, like many others, watched the US markets open and from CNBC to Bloomberg, CNN to Fox News, to a station they all found something 'ultra-positive' to stabilize the markets.
 
Tuesday evening here, we witnessed various previous-week/month's numbers be revised upwards in the US; various 'experts' come out of hibernation and say that they were thinking of investing their house, soul, wife and children into the US stockmarket because 'there has never been a better buying opportunity'.
 
From Greenspan to Wingspan, from Buffet to Snuffit and from Soros to 'porous' (every pun intended) we saw all these financial guru's wheeled out one after the other across the American financial networks to calm investor nerves. 
 
And did it work?  You can bet your ten gallon hat it did!  The Dow opened 3% lower and within half an hour of waffle from this misguided bunch of pathological 'market-makers', the Dow returned to positive territory and remained that way for the rest of the session.
 
Not to be outdone, the IMF and OECD the same day, in trying to calm waters, both announced a positive forecast for the global economy this year - particularly in emerging markets!
 
Here's what they had to say:
 
"Despite heightened market volatility lately tied to European debt woes, economic fundamentals continue to be positive, underpinning the likelihood the global recovery is robust and sustainable. For example, the IMF recently revised its 2010 global economic forecasts higher. And on Wednesday, the OECD followed suit-significantly upping its aggregate member country growth projection for 2010 from 1.9% to 2.7%.
 
Adding non-member Emerging Markets (EM), global growth is projected to hit 4.6% in 2010 and 4.5% in 2011-not bad compared to the average 3.7% from 2000-2006."  
 
The OECD's upward revision is remarkable in its own right in my opinion because it stands against a backdrop of fears of sovereign defaults.
 
By raising its forecast, the OECD is expressing confidence that positive forces are more likely to outweigh negatives. I usually advise taking economic projections with several pinches of salt, and that hasn't changed - the OECD isn't infallible by any stretch of the imagination. Economic forecasts are constantly revised and have plenty of underlying assumptions that may or may not be appropriate. But it's not the exact numbers that matter, rather, the implied opinion: Eurozone problems aren't enough to stymie economic growth.
 
In fact, it doesn't seem that the OECD thinks the sovereign debt crisis is even enough to stop Eurozone growth at all.
 
The organization raised this year's projected Eurozone expansion from 0.9% to 1.2% and upped 2011's projection from 1.7% to 1.8%.
 
So far, Greece is the only country projected to contract (-2.5%) in 2011, largely on austerity measures - no surprise there.
 
Portugal and Spain are the next weakest, but both are expected to expand (in your dreams given the unemployment, property and banking issues).
 
Meanwhile, the biggest Euro economies, France and Germany, are expected to grow 1.7% and 1.9% respectively in 2010, and 2.1% apiece in 2011.
 
Notably, German growth should "pick up strongly" on business investment and, importantly, trade (the OECD says).
 
But where will all this trade come from and how?
 
They state Emerging Markets and a weaker Euro. (They obviously see no problems on the horizon for China then!).
 
A weaker currency can be a boon for Eurozone exports in the near term-especially to the strongest segment of the global economy, which is currently Emerging Markets.
 
Cheaper European goods should be more attractive to the ever-broadening middle class in China and other developing countries and be further boosted by continued EM economic growth.
 
China is expected to expand more than 11% this year (not even by Chinese standards will this happen), with Brazil and India growing 6.5% and 8.3%, respectively. Six EM countries-Mexico, China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand (riot-torn and with a tourist-free capital), and South Africa (could have post World Cup problems) - have reported better-than-expected Q1 GDP growth. As happened in Q4 2009, GDP is growing faster than expected overall in the developing world.
 
Rounding out the report, Japan got a big bump higher-from 1.8% to 3% in 2010 (even though Japan is struggling fiercely to avoid further deflation).
 
And only recently the center of the storm, the US is expected to continue clocking one of the quickest developed country recoveries. The OECD projects the US economy will expand 3.2% this year and next (up from the previous prediction of 2.5%).
 
In all, the OECD thinks current economic growth will be hard to reverse - go figure!
 
Ladies & Gentlemen, this OECD 'guesstimate' is largely thanks to better-functioning economies elsewhere propping up Euro-zone industry with rising export orders.
 
The currency bloc is burdened by government spending cuts, rising taxes, job losses, credit shortages, indebted households, government default risk, exposed banks, a tumbling currency and even a new inflation threat if the European Central Bank gets it wrong.
 
Some economists are predicting dire possibilities in Europe, believing that any combination of the risks facing European recovery could, if realized, bring a double-dip recession and further strains on the Euro-currency project.
 
German market research group GfK's forward-looking consumer climate index for June fell more than expected to 3.5 as the Euro-zone debt crisis and uncertainty about the currency's stability have unsettled consumers, GfK said Wednesday.
 
Italian consumer confidence fell much more than expected in May as people's perception of the global economic situation and their own personal finances deteriorated, data showed Tuesday. French consumer spending in April fell 1.2% from the previous month, according to new data reported Wednesday.
 
Banks are another weak link obviously; both their exposure to default risk and their continued reluctance to lend to businesses and households.
 
Concerns about credit quality and the health of the European banking sector remain high as European banks are unlikely to have cleaned their balance sheets of all toxic assets - for 'unlikely, read 'they have not'.
 
French and German banks have combined exposure in fiscally frail countries along the Euro-zone's southern rim totaling $123.8 billion, dwarfing the $16.6 billion held by US banks.
 
So how on earth can the OECD see anything positive to comment upon?
 
The answer is easy; telephone call to MD of IMF and OECD Tuesday - probably from one of the 'market-makers' - going something like this:
 
"Listen old chap; Korea is in a mess; the same for Spanish Banks and markets are panicking.  Europe is down 4-5% and the Dow opens in an hour with the Futures down 3%.  Do me a favour and release to AP or Reuters something positive - anything positive - to stop the markets from crashing over here as well.  It happened a bit quick old chap, we'll be able to revamp last month's figures overnight and keep the markets buoyant for tomorrow - all we need from you is a bit of 'journalistic licence' and a touch of positive 'spin' and leave the rest to us!"
 
And that Ladies & Gentlemen, is in my humble opinion, precisely what stopped markets from crashing Tuesday!
 
Conspiracy theory?  It wouldn't be the first time would it!
 
On to the numbers and the news for the week that was:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummaryUS stocks slid, capping the worst May for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1940, as a downgrade of Spain's debt spurred concern the European credit crisis will worsen and energy shares sank on President Barack Obama's moratorium on new deepwater drilling permits.
 
Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp., American International Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell more than 2% each after Fitch Ratings stripped Spain of its AAA credit rating. Baker Hughes Inc., Halliburton Co. and Schlumberger Ltd. fell more than 6% after Obama canceled pending lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico as work continued to plug BP Plc's oil spill.
 
The S&P 500 tumbled 1.2% to 1,089.41, ending the week up less than 2 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 122.36 points, or 1.2%, to 10,136.63, ending the week 0.6% lower. About three stocks declined for each that rose on US stock exchanges, which are closed on May 31 for Memorial Day.
 
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. investment strategists David J. Kostin and Stuart Kaiser raised their estimates for operating earnings per share among S&P 500 companies to $78 for 2010 and $93 for 2011, up from $76 and $90 respectively. They said the change was made to reflect first-quarter results and better net margins than they had expected.
 
A gauge of 79 financial stocks tumbled 2.1%, the most of 10 groups in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Wells Fargo & Co. fell 2.5% to $28.69. Bank of America Corp. slid 2.7% to $15.74. American International Group Inc. lost 3% to $35.38. JPMorgan Chase & Co. declined 2.1% to $39.58.
 
The S&P 500 fell 8.2% in May, its worst month since February 2009, amid concern European nations will have difficulty reducing their deficits without harming the economic recovery.
 
A gauge of US corporate credit risk climbed the most in 15 months this month, making it harder for companies to refinance. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, increased 1.34 basis point to 117.2 basis points, according to Markit Group Ltd.
 
Energy companies lost 2% as a group, for the second- biggest decline of 10 industries in the S&P 500, after BP Plc restarted its effort to block a damaged oil well to halt a Gulf of Mexico spill that may be the largest in US history. BP's US shares fell 5.4% to $42.95. Halliburton lost 8% to $24.83 for the biggest decline in the S&P 500 Index. Baker Hughes declined 7.2% to $38.14. Schlumberger slipped 6.1% to $56.15.
 
The well began leaking after an April 20 explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, which resulted in the deaths of 11 workers. BP leased the rig from Geneva-based Transocean Ltd., the largest deep-water driller, which fell 4.9% to $56.77.
 
Obama is suspending exploration in two areas off Alaska, including planned drilling by Royal Dutch Shell Plc, canceling pending lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and proposed sales off Virginia's coast, extending by six months a moratorium on deepwater drilling permits and suspending operations at all 33 exploratory wells being drilled in the Gulf.
 
Apple Inc. rose 1.4% to $256.88. The iPad is now available in Australia, Canada, Japan and six European countries following the sale of one million of the devices within a month of its April 3 debut in the US Apple may sell 8 million iPads this year, according to Royal Bank of Canada.
 
SeaChange International Inc. jumped 6.8% to $8.35. The provider of digital video systems reported first-quarter profit excluding some items was 10 cents a share, topping the 8- cent average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
 
OmniVision Technologies Inc. added 5.9% to $19.29. The maker of image sensors for camera phones projected first- quarter profit of at least 27 cents a share, topping the 22-cent average analyst estimate.  

European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks declined Friday, paring the Stoxx Europe 600 Index's weekly gain.
 
The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2% to 244.34, trimming this week's advance to 0.7%.
 
The Stoxx 600 has slumped 5.9% so far this month, on course for the biggest drop since February 2009, on concern that European nations will have difficulty taming their budget deficits without harming the economic recovery. The decline has left the gauge trading at less than 15 times the reported earnings of its companies, near the cheapest valuation since 2008.
 
GERMANY
 
German stocks climbed, with the benchmark DAX Index posting a weekly gain, led by advancing E.ON AG and Daimler AG shares.
 
Metro AG, Germany's biggest retailer, and E.ON, the country's biggest utility, rose more than 1%. Daimler advanced after raising a profit forecast, while Freenet AG rose 2.4% as Berenberg Bank recommended the shares.
 
The DAX gained 0.2% to 5,946.18 in Frankfurt, extending its weekly advance to 2%. The gauge is still 6.1% below its April 26 high on concern the sovereign- debt crisis in Europe will grow. The broader HDAX Index also rose 0.2% Friday.
 
MAN SE climbed 1.1% after Chief Financial Officer Frank Lutz told Les Echos the truckmaker will sell 25% more vehicles this year. Daimler, the world's biggest truckmaker, also advanced, while Freenet AG rose 2% as Berenberg Bank recommended the company's shares.
 
The DAX gained 0.3% to 5,952.95 as of 4:45 p.m. in Frankfurt, extending its weekly gain to 2.2%. The gauge is still 5.9% below its April 26 high on concern the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe will grow. The broader HDAX Index rose 0.4% Friday.
 
MAN SE advanced 1.1% to 69.62 Euros. Europe's third- largest truckmaker will sell about 50,000 vehicles this year, an increase of about 25%, Lutz told French daily Les Echos in an interview.
 
Daimler AG rose 1.6% to 40.59 Euros after raising its profit forecast for the Mercedes-Benz division for the second time in six weeks, as the global recovery spurs demand.
 
The unit's full-year earnings before interest and taxes will be at the "upper end" of the carmaker's target of 2.5 billion Euros ($3.1 billion) to 3 billion Euros, Stuttgart, Germany-based Daimler said Friday. Second-quarter Ebit will exceed the first quarter's 806 million Euros, it said.
 
Daimler makes about a quarter of its vehicle sales outside Europe, Bloomberg data shows, while MAN SE gets more than three- quarters of its revenue from outside Germany, it shows.
 
Freenet surged 2% to 8.09 Euros. Germany's fourth- largest mobile-phone operator was rated "buy" in new coverage at Berenberg Bank, which said the company's "disciplined and successful management of costs will largely protect its cash flow over the medium term, enabling it to pay the proposed dividends from internally generated cash flow."
 
KWS Saat AG increased 2.6% to 119.70 Euros as the world's largest producer of beet seeds said it met its growth targets, increasing net sales and profit due to a "good corn and sugarbeet business" in the first nine months of the current fiscal year.
 
Fielmann AG jumped 5.4% to 61.01 Euros after Europe's largest chain of optical stores was raised to "buy" from "sell" at Merck Finck & Co., while Carl Zeiss Meditec AG climbed 0.9% to 11.61 Euros after it was raised to "buy" from "sell" at DZ Bank AG.
 
German import prices increased 7.9% year-on-year in April after logging 5% rise in March, the Federal Statistical Office said Friday. That was the highest price increase since August 2008, when import prices grew 8.3%. Economists had forecast 7.1% increase for April.
 
On a monthly basis import prices were up 2%. Prices were expected to climb 1.5%. It follows 1.7% growth in March.
 
The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, was 3.3% above the level of a year earlier. It went up 1.4% compared to March 2010.
 
Further, the statistical office said the index of export prices climbed 3% in April from the corresponding month of the preceding year. This was the highest year-on-year-price increase since November 2000, when prices rose 3.5%. In March, export prices logged 2% growth. From March 2010 to April 2010 the index rose by 1%.
 
Import and export price data came a day after the statistical office released preliminary estimate on May consumer price inflation. According to the report, consumer prices grew 1.2% annually in May, faster than 1% rise in April, led by a sharp rise in energy prices. 
 
FRANCE
 
France's CAC 40 Index declined 10.25, or 0.3%, to 3,515.06 in Paris, falling for the first time in three days. The SBF 120 Index lost 0.3%.
 
Alcatel-Lucent added 1.3% to 2.10 Euros, a third straight gain. Sales of Apple Inc.'s iPad started in France and other countries outside the US Friday. Alcatel has said that the tablet-style computer will have a massive impact on the mobile networks it supplies.
 
Derichebourg rallied 14.1 cents, or 4.9%, to 3.03 Euros, a third day of gains. Gilbert Dupont raised its recommendation for the environmental services company to "add" from "reduce" after the company reported first-half net income of 6.6 million Euros.
 
EDF Energies Nouvelles dropped 1.51 Euro, or 4.9%, to 29.45 Euros. Exane BNP Paribas lowered its recommendation for the renewable-energy arm of Electricite de France SA to "neutral" from "outperform."
 
EuropaCorp jumped 25 cents, or 5.2%, to 5.10 Euros after the movie-production company reported a 41% increase in full-year sales to 181 million Euros.
 
PSA Peugeot Citroen declined 26.5 cents, or 1.3%, to 19.55 Euros, trimming some of Thursday's 7.1% rally. Dongfeng Motor Group Co. and Peugeot's Chinese venture will recall 53,459 cars for cooling fan problems from May 31, according to a statement.
 
Veolia Environnement climbed 1.1%, to 21.01 Euros after the water company said it won a 270 million Euro contract from Cincor.
 
French consumer confidence continued its downward trend in May to reach the lowest level in 12 months, a closely watched survey showed Thursday. Consumers' outlook for the economy worsened amid weak spending.
 
Consumer confidence eased slightly to minus 38 in May from minus 37 in April, data from the statistical office INSEE showed. The score was in line with economists' forecast and stood significantly below its long-term average. The declining trend started at the beginning of this year.
 
Two of the five main components of the indicator deteriorated during the month. The gauge measuring consumers' view on the outlook for the French economy slid to minus 53 from minus 48. The other indicator that showed decline was the index for consumers' own financial outlook assessment. The index came in at minus 19, down from minus 16.
 
The measure reviewing the state of the national economy over the past year improved slightly to minus 67 from minus 68. The index measuring consumers' intentions to make major purchases in the future rose to minus 24 from minus 26. At the same time, the gauge for consumers' financial situation in the past year was unchanged at minus 25.
 
The survey found that there were less number of households that were expecting an increase in unemployment. Still, fears remain high since this balance has been notably above its long term average since the beginning of the year. The index measuring households' inflation expectations rose to minus 26 from minus 31 and remains above its long term average.
 
Households' opinion about their current financial situation was stable and remained higher than its long term value. Households hold the view that their savings capacity in the next twelve months is stable. However, their opinion on the timeliness for savings went down by 3 points.
 
In April, consumer spending declined 1.2% from the previous month largely due to a sizeable fall in automobile sales. There was a steep decline of 9.5% in car purchases in April.
 
Household spending is unlikely to support growth in the second quarter. The French economic growth had slowed to 0.1% in the first three months of the year as households' consumption leveled out and government's stimulus measures started fading. 
 
BELGIUM
 
In Brussels the Bel 20 headed into the weekend on 2,460.54, down 0.37%.
 
As part of its annual "Tax Misery Index" survey, Forbes magazine examines the tax burden for professionals earning between 50,000 and 1,000,000 Euros (gross) per year. For this fortunate lot, it ranks Belgium the third most "miserable" in general; on a million a year, Belgium is the second-worst place to be tax-wise, says Forbes.
 
Think tanks have also demonstrated that the land of beer and mussels is no picnic for top earners and entreprenEurs: In its 2009 edition of Economic Freedom of the World, the Fraser Institute (Canada) ranks Belgium as the 47th "freest", just below Jamaica worldwide and 20th in the EU. Washington's Heritage Foundation, in its annual Index of Economic Freedom, shows Belgium at No. 20 worldwide - more reassuringly, just below Japan and 8th in the EU.
 
While high-earning foreigners seem to have every right to complain about them, are Belgian taxes really so high for the typical employee, the Average Joe?
 
Belgium's top marginal tax rate - the top rate is 50%, and communal taxes can add as much as 9% - is a factor in all of these studies' calculations.  But as the OECD Observer once noted, the income tax isn't the only tax levied on employment, and "concentrating on these 'headline' rates can be misleading." Indeed, in many European countries, income taxes are dwarfed by the sums demanded for social security contributions.
 
And surely not everybody is paying the top rate, anyway, are they? What about the Average Joe earning a typical wage in Belgium?  How does he compare to his European neighbours? For those of us who aren't enjoying cushy expat contracts or the virtually tax-free status of Eurocrats, L'Anglophone decided to find the answer. We looked up the average wages of employees in the 27 EU member states and asked Ernst & Young to uncover the tax data.
 
The results revealed that, when personal taxes and social security contributions are factored in, the wages of the typical worker in Belgium are the highest-taxed in Western Europe, and the second-highest in the EU as a whole. (Hungary takes the proverbial cake - 56.55% of it, that is - and with a European Commissioner of Taxation who hails from Budapest, the word "harmonization" might now strike a dissonant chord among the populations of the member states.)
 
The average gross salary of a Belgian employee in the industry and services sector in 2006, according to Eurostat, was 37,674€. In addition to this salary, an employer Friday would pay 11,501€ in social security contributions, thus making the total cost of employment 49,175€. The employee's net pay would be 21,903€, or 44.54% of the total employment cost; taxes and social security contributions thus comprise 55.46% of the "real" gross income.
 
As for the top marginal rate: Yes, it is imposed on Average Joe in Belgium; for the year 2010, the 50% rate applies to each Euro of gross income over 34,300€.
 
Many think tanks and consumer groups calculate "tax freedom days" (TFDs) for various countries around the world, with the goal of determining the average calendar date on which a citizen has finished paying his tax obligations and begins to keep his earnings.
 
To calculate June 10th as Belgium's Tax Freedom Day in 2009, for example, PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) divided Belgium's total tax revenue (including social security contributions) by its Gross Domestic Product.  These figures count revenue from all taxes (including those on corporate profits, petrol, cigarettes, &c.) and thus present a more complete picture of the country's total tax burden.
 
PWC's date, however, is an average applied to all Belgians - not all Belgian workers; in 2008, less than half of Belgium's population (4.99 million working out of 10.67 million citizens) was legally working. Consequently, a huge share of Belgium's tax burden is borne by the working population.
 
While it would be nearly impossible to precisely define the impact of every Belgian tax on a typical worker, L'Anglophone has made an effort to more nearly estimate the Average Joe's tax burden by comparing the impact of standard value-added tax (VAT) rates, which vary in the EU from 15 to 25%.
 
If Average Joe spends 35% of his take-home pay on rent (around 550 Euros per month), and half of what remains on items not subject to VAT (groceries, for example), he pays an additional 1,495€ in VAT at the cash register each year. In this scenario, Average Joe's total tax burden rises to 28,767€ or 58.5% of his "real" gross salary.
 
Applied to the calendar year, these numbers show that our typical Belgian employee works until August 2nd to pay the government, making August 3rd his "Tax Freedom Day" (TFD) on which he has finished paying his personal taxes, social contributions and VAT and begins to choose for himself how his salary is spent (or saved - though this would mean more taxes).
 
Belgian property group Bernaerts is hoping to raise about 90 million Euros ($110.5 million) in an initial public offering (IPO) of 30% of the company, its managing director said on Thursday.
 
It will use the cash to pay off taxes and increase its capital position, Guido Bernaerts told Reuters in a telephone interview.
 
"The market is not ready for it at the moment. We decided to go in the second part of 2010, maybe in September or October depending on the market situation," he said.
 
"We have a market value of the real estate we own at about 250 million Euros and we want to increase the total capital to about 300 million ... 30% is 90 million Euros."
 
He added that Bernaerts was in talks with another property group for a merger, and that if this went ahead he might float another 50 million Euros in 2011.
 
Bernaerts said the company could have assets totalling as much as 700 million Euros at the end of 2011 or the beginning of 2012 once it includes its Belgian commercial development European Market City.
 
Belgian financial group KBC has ended talks to sell its private equity unit to AXA Private Equity  and Belgian investment group Sofina without success, Belgian business daily De Tijd said on Wednesday.
 
KBC had been holding exclusive discussions with the would-be buyers for some time. It was unclear whether talks would be held with any other potential suitors, De Tijd said.
 
A KBC spokeswoman had no comment on the deal. KBC Private Equity has 29 staff and a portfolio of more than 350 million Euros, including holdings in Pizza Hut and listed Belgian frozen food company Pinguin.
 
KBC has agreed with the European Commission to divest units to help pay off 7 billion Euros ($8.55 billion) in state aid it received in the financial crisis.
 
It agreed to sell its private banking arm to Indian family-owned Hinduja Group for 1.35 billion Euros last week. 
 
THE NETHERLANDS
 
The AEX in Amsterdam rounded out the week at 320.64, down 0.16% on the day Friday.
 
Some 45,000 home owners face a risky combination of having high housing costs and a mortgage which is bigger than the value of their home, according to the government's social policy unit SCP.
 
Before the recession, 30,000 households were in a similar position, the SCP says in a report out on Wednesday. But unemployment and lack of savings have forced up the number of households in a potentially difficult situation.
 
The SCP say housing costs can be considered too high if more than 35% of income is spent on mortgage, local taxes, water and energy.
 
Starters on the housing ladder are most vulnerable, but immigrants and the self-employed are also increasingly effected, the SCP says.
 
If the economic crisis continues, some 65,000 home owners, or 2% of the total, will be in trouble, the organisation says.
 
The SCP estimates scrapping tax relief on mortgage interest payments will lead to a 10% drop in house prices, forcing more households into the danger zone.
 
Most parties have included a commitment to mortgage tax relief reform in their election manifestos.
 
The home owners lobby group VEH said on Wednesday it did not regard reducing mortgage tax relief as a taboo subject.
 
'If homes remain affordable and the value of property does not suffer, then [maintaining] mortgage tax relief is not an end in itself,' VEH director Rob Mulder told website nu.nl.
 
The housing market in its entirety should be looked at instead, Mulder said. 'We are very opposed to scrapping mortgage tax relief as a simple cost cutting exercise.'
 
Energy company Eneco has stopped looking for new shareholders after its 61 local authority owners said they were unhappy at having their stakes reduced, the Financieele Dagblad reports on Wednesday.
 
The paper says Eneco needs to find €400m to fund the separation of itself into supply and delivery companies by January 1 2011, and to invest in boosting its production capacity.
 
An Eneco spokesman said the company is now considering taking out a subordinated loan to cover part of the bill and hopes to have the financial details sorted out within six weeks.
 
Eneco is the third biggest energy company in the Netherlands. The numbers one and two - Essent and Nuon - have sold themselves to foreign companies.
 
The FD says The Hague city council, which owns 16.6% of Eneco, is keen to sell its stake if the price is right.
 
Rotterdam, which owns 31% has no plans to sell and is looking at ways to help the company fund the split off of its supply arm, the paper says. These could include a dividend holiday or bank guarantee.
 
The outlook for the Netherlands' drug market is fairly subdued over the next five years. Having been calculated at Eur6bn (US$8.45bn) consumer prices in 2009, the market value is expected to virtually stagnate through to 2014, posting a comPound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.01% in local currency terms (or -2.12% in US Dollars), partly due to pending patent expirations.
 
While growth will return to the positive territory over the longer, 10-year forecast period, at 1.68% and 0.47% respectively, the 2009- 2019 CAGR can be called modest at best. Low inflation levels, expected to average 1.7% in the course of 2010, will also hamper stronger market development. 
 
SWITZERLAND
 
Zurich's SMI ended the trading session and the week Friday on 6,321.92, up 0.27% on the day.
 
Foreign banks in Switzerland saw their profits decrease by 38% in 2009 to SFr1.95 billion ($1.7 billion).
 
The group, which represents around 45% of banks in Switzerland's financial centre, put the loss down to write-offs and declining interest rates and commission.
 
The number of employees also dropped, by eight% to 20,000, the Association of Foreign Banks in Switzerland reported in Zurich on Wednesday.
 
Although the amount of private wealth management in the 155 companies increased from SFr940 billion to SFr980 billion, more than SFr10 billion in client funds flowed out.
 
Regarding the tax debate involving Switzerland and other countries, association president Alfredo Gysi said the foreign banks supported the introduction of an anonymous withholding tax for foreign bank customers. The European Union on the other hand is calling for the automatic exchange of information and data.
 
Foreign banks generate two% of Swiss GDP, according to the association's own figures. The biggest foreign bank is HSBC in Geneva. Other big players are Deutsche Bank and Crédit Agricole.
 
UBS bank's Switzerland consumption indicator climbed in April signaling an acceleration in private consumer spending.
 
The consumption indicator rose to 1.76 in April from a revised 1.68 in March, well above its long-term average of 1.50.
 
UBS said the rise in the indicator was driven by significantly higher business activity in the country's retail sector.
 
"The rise in the UBS consumption indicator indicates that growth in consumption further increased in the first quarter of this year, buoyed by low interest rates, immigration and a rapidly recovering job market," the bank said.
 
The UBS consumption index is calculated by taking five parameters into account namely new car sales, activity in the retail sector, the number of hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer confidence index and credit card transactions made via UBS points of sale.
 
A rise in consumer spending bodes well for the Swiss economy, with private consumption making up nearly 60% of the country's gross domestic product.
 
McDonald's Corp. raised 250 million Swiss francs ($217 million) from its first sale in the currency in almost three years as investors seek so-called safe-haven alternatives to weakened Euro-denominated assets.
 
The world's largest restaurant company's new six-year notes were priced to yield 48 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate, according to a banker with knowledge of the sale. The issue lifts this week's corporate issuance in the Swiss currency to 725 million francs, the most since August 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
 
The Swiss franc has strengthened 5% against the Euro in the past six months amid concern that Greece's fiscal crisis will spread through the nations sharing the common currency, hampering economic growth. The Euro has slumped to near its lowest level in four years against the Dollar.
 
AUSTRIA
 
The ATX in Vienna completed a hecric week on 2,430.27, up 0.33% Friday.
 
People's Party (ÖVP) Economy Minister Reinhold Mitterlehner claimed Austria was "positioned to achieve sustainable growth" as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted a bright future was ahead for the country's economy.
 
The body announced Friday (Weds) it expected Austria's economy to grow by 1.4% year on year in 2010. Its most recent forecast claimed the country's economy could expect a year on year growth of just 0.9%.
 
The OECD also said Austria's economy will grow by 2.3% year on year in 2011 after recently claiming 2.2% annual growth was ahead.
 
Mitterlehner welcomed the good news. "These figures confirm that Austria is well positioned to achieve sustainable growth," he said.
 
The minister added he was especially optimistic since Austrian exports were set to rise again after dwindling figures in the worst period of the economic crisis.
 
Mitterlehner however also appealed to "act more efficiently" as the government said it needed to reduce the soaring state debt.
 
"We need to act more efficiently and save costs in an intelligent way. It is important not to axe rising consumption by too drastic measures," he warned.
 
Viennese think tank Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) recently said the Austrian economy failed to grow in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the last quarter of 2009.
 
WIFO earlier this year corrected its 1.5% growth forecast for the Austrian economy made last December to 1.3%, while the Institute for Higher Studies (IHS) - Austria's other leading think tank - said it would stick to its 1.3% year on year growth prediction.
 
Austrian political and economic leaders especially focus on Asia as far as exports are regarded.
 
President Heinz Fischer was accompanied by a high-profile business delegation on his state visit to China in January.
 
Social Democratic (SPÖ) Chancellor Werner Faymann pointed out China's "important role in crisis times" for Austria's economy during his visit to the Austrian pavilion at the Expo 2010 in Shanghai last week.
 
He said: "Trade with most partners receded in the crisis, while it didn't with China. The country has had a key role for the Austrian economy and will be even more important in the future."
 
Styrian industrial plant producer Andritz AG has been assigned to deliver special devices to Chinese premium steel producers.
 
Andritz said Friday (Tues) both firms - Jiuquan Iron & Steel Group andTianjin Tisco & TPCO Stainless Steel - were "customers for many years", adding that the overall value of the orders was around 50 million Euros.
 
Andritz has come under fire over the past few months by environmentalists for bidding to build a dam at the Amazonas river in Brazil. Organisations such as Greenpeace and GLOBAL 2000 claimed several tribes would have to relocate if the Belo Monte project goes underway.
 
Andritz was also criticised for failing to withdraw its willingness to participate in the controversial Ilisu dam project in Turkey.
 
The firm said recently the value of the orders it received in the first quarter of this year was 5.8% higher year on year at 4.7 billion Euros.
 
It predicted its turnover would increase this year. "Our cost reduction and restructuring programmes will help produce better overall results this year," a spokesman for Andritz said.
 
Austria's production index for industries and construction decreased a working day adjusted 2.8% year-on-year in March, Statistics Austria said Tuesday.
 
The industrial output index edged down by 0.4% year-over-year, while construction output fell a steeper 14.4%.
 
Analyzing based on usage categories, durable consumer goods output fell 10.1% and capital goods production was down 5.6%. The declines were offset by a 4.8% increase in energy production.
 
On a monthly basis, the index fell a seasonally adjusted 2.1%. Industrial output was down 1.4% and output of the construction sector decreased 5.1%.
 
Austria exited recession in the third quarter with the GDP increasing 0.9% sequentially after contracting 0.5% in the second quarter, official data has showed. However, the economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter as GDP rose 0.4% on a quarterly basis. 
 
SWEDEN
 
The OMX in Stockholm closed out the Friday session on 979.12, a day's gain of 0.06%.
 
Sweden's unemployment rose sharply in April exceeding expectations.
 
Jobless rate stood at 9.8% in April, an increase of 1.5 percentage points during the month compared to April 2009, the Statistics Sweden said Tuesday. The rate stood much above March's 9.1%. Economists were expecting the unemployment rate to be 9%.
 
The number of unemployed persons increased by 80,000 from last year to 483,000 in April. Women accounted for two thirds of this increase.
 
After adjusting to seasonal factors, the jobless rate stood at 9.3%. The number of unemployed stood at 464,000. Nearly 4.5 million people were employed in Sweden during April, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
 
In March, the National Institute of Economic Research forecast the jobless rate to be at 9.1% this year and next. The think tank has warned that the Swedish economy will not return to cyclical balance until 2014, when the unemployment rate will be around 6.8%.
 
Meanwhile, the Swedish government expects unemployment to peak at 9.2% this year, compared to a previous estimate of 9.5%. The government revised down its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.5% from 3% in April.
 
Riksbank policy makers expect that the Swedish economy will grow this year and there appears to have been a turnaround in the Labour market. On April 19, the rate-setting board decided to hold the lending rate at 0.75% and the deposit rate at negative 0.25%.
 
Sweden's trade surplus declined to SEK 6.9 billion in April from SEK 7.9 billion last year, the Statistics Sweden said in a report on Wednesday. The surplus also stood below March's SEK 7.6 billion surplus.
 
Compared to April 2009, exports increased by 13% to SEK 92.3 billion. Imports, at the same time, grew 15% to SEK 85.4 billion.
 
Trade with countries outside the EU showed in a surplus of SEK 12.4 billion. Meanwhile, the EU trade resulted in a deficit of SEK 5.5 billion.
 
Seasonally adjusted, the net trade surplus amounted to SEK 5 billion in April compared to SEK 5.1 billion in March. The corresponding figure for February was SEK 5.2 billion.
 
During January to April, the trade surplus totaled SEK 23.8 billion. The corresponding surplus figure for these months one year earlier was SEK 31.2 billion.
 
Nearly one in four households, or 22%, would have difficulty dealing with an unforeseen expense of 5,000 kronor ($635), according to a study by Länsförsäkringar.
 
The study showed that 34% would struggle to cope with 10,000 kronor more in expenses, while 49% would have problems addressing an additional 20,000 kronor in expenses, the study, which was conducted among Swedes aged 25 to 65, revealed.
 
More men than women believe that they can cope with unforeseen expenses, regardless of the amount. In two-parent households, more than eight out of ten said they could cope with an unplanned one-off expense of 5,000 kronor. Among single parents, only 45% said they would cope with such an expense.
 
The financial situations varied between counties. In Halland, 26% of households said they could not sustain an extra expenditure of 10,000 kronor, while in Södermanland, 40% said they could not make the sum.
 
It is important to secure a buffer in a regular bank account of about two or three times one's monthly net salary, said Ingela Gabrielsson, family economist at Nordea.
 
"It might take time to accumulate it, so one must get started with setting aside money every month," said Gabrielsson. "Even if it is very little, one can put it aside. It's better than nothing."
 
She questioned how so many people can be so badly off despite low mortgage rates and tax cuts.
 
"Maybe these are long-standing holes to fill and so we happily consume," said Gabrielsson, who believes that SMS loans and credit cards often act as a safety net when one's car breaks down or one deals with a high dentist's bill.
 
"It is easy for it to become a vicious circle that people cannot get out of," she added. "People get trapped making new installments all the time and there is still not enough to get by."
 
Even Finance Minister Anders Borg believes it is important for households to try to create a financial buffer.
 
In response to whether he believed it was concern that households have such tight financial margins, Borg responded, "Yes, one should always be careful and it is good for households to try to be frugal, especially when interest rates are so low - as they are gradually going to rise,"
 
He added, "I know that it is tough for people with small margins, but one should always try to have a small, small margin to have a sense of security."
 
Swedish household borrowing continues to increase at one of the world's highest rates and economists at the state Housing Credit Guarantee Board (Statens bostadskreditnämnd - BKN) have raised concerns over the risks for individuals, house prices, and the Swedish economy.
 
During the first three months of 2010 household mortgage debt increased at an annualized rate of 8%, one of the highest rates of increase worldwide.
 
"We have a debt-price spiral within the housing market. Sweden is among the OECD countries with the greatest increase in housing loans. There is a causal link between rapid debt growth and subsequent deep economic crisis," said Bengt Hansson, an analyst with BKN, to the TT news agency.
 
It is one of the conclusions of a new BKN report on the dangers of the current Swedish mortgage market with the board standing by its assessment that house prices will decline by 20-30% within 3-5 years.
 
"Household mortgage debt is expected to exceed 2 trillion kronor ($251 billion) this year. They are very vulnerable to interest rate shocks and the recent rapid indebtedness has comPounded the situation," said Bengt Hansson.
 
Much of the Swedish mortgage stock is held in variable rate mortgages, with 80% of new mortgages in March 2010 variable, up from only 45% as recently as March 2008. Ten years ago only every fifth household chose a variable rate for their mortgage.
 
The difference between variable and fixed interest rates since the late 1990s has been about 1.5 percentage points according to BKN but is currently uncompetitive for many mortgage holders, especially those with larger loans.
 
"Many households would gain from fixed-rate mortgages, not all, but it is especially heavily indebted households who are vulnerable for higher interest rates. But there is currently a lack of possibilities to fixed rates in the longer term at competitive conditions," the report states.
 
BKN warns that home-owners will sooner or later have to face up to higher interest rates, which are currently at record lows as a result of the finance crunch and subsequent public debt crisis.
 
"The Riksbank expects a "normal" repo rate in around three years of 4%, which means mortgage rates of around 7%," said Bengt Hansson.
 
Hansson argued that Swedes should be given the alternative to fix their interest rates for terms of up to 30 years, which he observes, is the case in the US and Denmark.
 
"This concerns mainly young and highly-leveraged households, who are unable to manage interest rate volatility," he said.
 
The risks of the mortgage market are not reserved to individual home-owners and house prices, Bengt Hansson argues, warning that the whole Swedish economy could be exposed to instability.
 
"The countries which have had rapidly increasing levels of indebtedness during the 2000s are also those countries which have had the weakest economic development during the finance crisis," he said.
 
The new report is not the first by BKN to warn of a house price crash and The Local reported on similar concerns expressed in February.
 
The February report's findings were rejected as unfounded by economists at state-owned mortgage lender SBAB who argued that interest rate rises will not come as any surprise to households and will be gradual, allowing mortgage-holders to adapt to higher housing costs.
 
Sweden's Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen -FI) however appeared to heed warnings over the increased debt burden when it submitted a proposal in May that banks limit the amount offered for new residential mortgages to 85% of a property's market value.
 
"It is about protecting households from over-borrowing and about slowing the growth in borrowing, which is not a good thing in the long term," said Financial Markets Minister Mats Odell on receipt of the proposal.
 
The new guidelines are expected to come into force from October 1st.
 
DENMARK
 
Denmark's own OMX finished the week on 387.00, down 0.73% for the Friday session.
 
A law designed to give a cement producer a tax break in lieu of increased environmental charges is expected to be ruled illegal by the EU
 
Denmark has violated one of the EU's most central principles - that of free competition - in saving cement and concrete company Aalborg Portland around 100 million kroner by virtue of an annual waste charge exemption, according to the head of the EU's competition authority.
 
The company, which is the world's largest producer of white cement, has been allowed the break through legislation passed two years ago exempting cement dust from industrial waste fees. The move was designed to compensate for expenses incurred by cement companies from a recently imposed environmental tax.
 
That exemption would save Aalborg Portland around 100 million kroner by 2020.
 
But according to the European Commission's assessment, the law was a direct illegal advantage for Aalborg Portland, which is the nation's only cement producer.
 
'It is the view of the commission that through the granting of this exemption, the Danish cement producer is the recipient of illegal state aid,' wrote European competition commissioner Joaquin Almuniao in his introduction to the case's investigation.
 
The case is currently under review by the commission, but Almuniao's initial assessment does not bode well for the law staying in place.
 
Former tax minister Kristian Jensen - who introduced the proposal in 2008 - stands by the law, which he maintained was only aimed to give Aalborg Portland compensation for the new environmental expenses.
 
'We approved that ongoing tax break because the overall green bill passed at the time hit Aalborg Portland particularly hard,' Jensen told Politiken newspaper.
 
Specifically, the government's restructuring of total energy charges in connection with its tax reform plan would have cost Aalborg Portland an extra 9 million kroner a year, according to the company's own calculations.
 
The only party in parliament to vote against the exemption was the Red-Green Alliance, which argued that Jensen was unduly influenced by intense lobbying from Aalborg Portland advocates.
 
Red-Green party leader Per Clausen said the move was not merely anti-environmental but an affront to Denmark's official opposition to state support for private companies.
 
'Apparently a company having powerful friends is enough to solve these types of problems,' said Clausen. 'It's embarrassing that it has to be the EU that puts a stop to it.'
 
According to Politiken, many analysts believe Thursday's assessment by Almuniao will result in the EU taking action against Denmark.
 
Niels Rytter, former head of the Competition Authority, said he believes the case 'unquestionably' represents illegal state aid. Rytter is backed up by Michael Steinicke, professor of European law at the University of Southern Denmark.
 
Steinicke pointed out that the European Commission review expressed an extremely firm opinion and that it indicated the conditions necessary to give an exemption are not present in this case.
 
'So unless the Tax Ministry has any new convincing arguments to present, it's difficult to imagine that the commission will not order the tax break stopped,' said Steinicke.
 
Current tax minister Troels Lund Poulsen said he would not comment on the case because it is an ongoing matter. 
 
NORWAY
 
The OBX in Oslo ended the Friday session on 318.69, down 1.34%.
 
Norway's Central Bank (Norges Bank) Investment Management (NBIM) which manages the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global will open an office in Singapore to expand its operations.
 
NBIM, which is already located in Oslo, London, New York and Shanghai, says in a press release that the aim is to expand in Asia's fast-growing markets.
 
"Asia is of increasing importance to NBIM. The move into China two years ago helped us form new business contacts and find new investment opportunities in an important market," says Yngve Slyngstad, NBIM's chief executive officer. "The next step into Singapore will further strengthen our operations in this region."
 
As one of Southeast Asia's financial hubs, Singapore offers new investment opportunities and proximity to many emerging markets. Its diverse population and international business community also provide a valuable recruitment pool for NBIM. The Singapore office will primarily focus on investment and trading activity in the region, complementing the office NBIM opened in Shanghai in November 2007.
 
The Government Pension Fund Global was worth more than 2,700 billion kroner at the start of May. Almost 10% of the fund's assets were in Asian countries including Singapore, China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand at the end of 2009.
 
"NBIM has grown fast since its inception in 1998 and become a global organisation with about 250 employees and investments in 70 countries," Slyngstad says.
 
Norwegian company Aker Solutions is to provide the basic engineering for two Arkema PVC licenses in Xining City, People's Republic of China, consisting of a 230 000 ton (kT) PVC Suspension production plant and a 35 kT PVC Emulsion plant.
 
"The licensing agreement concluded with Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Group Co., Ltd for three licenses confirms the remarkable quality of Arkema's PVC production processes, which makes them one of the most efficient PVC technologies in the world. Our partnership with Aker Solutions, one of the world's leading engineering and construction groups, has undoubtedly been a key element in the choice made by this Chinese manufacturer," states Otto Takken, Vice President of Arkema's Vinyl Products business segment.
 
"The choice made by Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Group Co., Ltd for Arkema's technology in combination with Aker Solutions' solid expertise in designing and executing projects in China, is a further illustration of the successful partnership between our companies," says Johan Cnossen, SVP - Europe, Middle East and Africa for Aker Solutions' Process and Construction business.
 
The licensing agreement covers the operation of the Arkema technologies, basic engineering, and technical support for the plants' startup.
 
The contract party in relation to the basic engineering is the Aker Solutions subsidiary Aker Process BV.
 
Norway's oil company Statoil ASA has agreed to sell 40% of the Peregrino field offshore Brazil to the Chinese Sinochem Group. Statoil maintains 60% ownership and the operatorship of the field.
 
Production on the Peregrino field is expected to start early in 2011.
 
Sinochem Group will pay a total of USD 3,070 million in cash for the 40% share of the Peregrino field, located in the Campos basin offshore Brazil.
 
"The transaction confirms the high quality of the Peregrino asset, reflecting Statoil's value added through the field development. The transaction demonstrates Statoil's ability to leverage its industrial competence developed at the Norwegian Continental Shelf, and realise value for our shareholders. The divestment is a natural step in our continuous effort to optimise our portfolio", says Helge Lund, CEO of Statoil.
 
"We are pleased with the transaction and look forward to partner with Sinochem Group in the further development and operations of the large Peregrino field. Both companies see many opportunities for value creation through increased recovery and exploration for additional resources in the decades to come. I am pleased that we also have agreed to sign a MoU to jointly investigate further opportunities in Brazil and elsewhere", says Lund.
 
The transaction is subject to government approvals in Brazil and China. The consideration is based on an effective date of January 1st 2010 and subject to customary adjustments.
 
The divestment of a 40% share of Peregrino will reduce Statoil's equity production guiding for 2012 by 40,000 boepd to a range of 2,060 000 - 2,160 000 boepd.
 
FINLAND
 
Helsinki's OMX rounded out a busy week Friday on 6,487.30, up 0.05% for the day.
 
The Finnish unemployment rate rose in April as more men were left without a job.
 
The unemployment rate climbed to 9.3% in April from 9.1% in March, the Labour Force Survey of Statistics Finland showed Tuesday. A year ago, the rate was 8.8%.
 
There were 15,000 more jobless during the month than a year ago, the Helsinki-based agency said. The unemployed total stood at 248,000 in April compared to 240,000 in the previous month and 233,000 last year.
 
From a year earlier, the jobless figure rose only for men, the statistical office noted. There were 145,000 men unemployed in April versus 130,000 a year ago. The jobless total for women remained unchanged at 103,000.
 
The number of employed persons stood at 2.41 million in April. It was 15,000 less than last year. The employment rate was 66.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from the year before.
 
The Labour force total was stable at 2.67 million from last year. The Labour force participation rate slid to 66% from 66.3% in the same month last year. The number of persons between 15 years and 74 years, not belonging to the Labour force grew by 19,000.
 
Data from the Employment Ministry showed that there were 264,000 registered job seekers at the end of April, which was 12,000 higher than last year. The number of persons covered by labour market policy measures stood at 92,000, up 7,000 from the year before. Overall, 3.5% of the Labour force was covered by Labour market policy measures at the end of April.
 
In March, the Finance Ministry predicted that the number of people out of work will continue to rise this year despite the trend of output growth. The unemployment rate is expected to climb to 10.2%. However, the situation is likely to improve next year, when the rate is forecast to fall back to 9.6%.
 
Meanwhile, the Bank of Finland said the slow recovery in growth is unlikely to reduce unemployment from around 9% this year.
 
Kuusakoski OY, a Finnish recycling company, has entered into a joint venture agreement with the British electronics recycling firm SWEEEP. Going forward, the British firm will be known as SWEEEP/Kuusakoski.
 
Despite the name change, the company will continue to focus on recycling obsolete electronics throughout the United Kingdom. SWEEEP has invested more than £6.5 million in its facility since its inception three years ago.
 
The facility includes a MeWa QZ plant, which processes more than 10 metric tons of obsolete electronic equipment per hour. It also recycles over 4,000 televisions and monitors every day.
 
SPAIN
 
The IBEX in Madrid drew proceedings to a close Friday on 9,425.50, up 0.97%.
 
Four regional savings banks in Spain have announced that they have agreed to merge some operations to form a single group worth around Eur 135 billion in assets, reports said on Monday.
 
The merger deal, which includes Caja de Ahorros de Mediterraneo, Cajastur, Caja de Extremadura and Caja Cantabria, is intended to consolidate the finances of the banks involved.
 
The announcement follows the government rescue of one of the country's biggest regional lenders, Cajasur, over the weekend.
 
That development affected Spanish banking shares, while the Euro was also hit due to concerns over Spain's overall financial health.
 
Spain's savings banks have been hard hit by the property sector crash and a number of these regional banks are in merger talks to shore up their solvency.
 
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said that Spain's banking sector remains sound but is littered with "pockets of weakness".
 
Spain's producer prices rose at a faster pace in April largely due to higher energy costs.
 
The industrial price index increased 3.7% year-on-year in April, faster than 2.4% in March, the Spanish statistical office INE said Tuesday. Prices rose for the fifth month in a row. The inflation rate increased in each month.
 
On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 1% in April, faster than 0.8% increase in March. It was the sixth straight monthly gain. The rate accelerated for the second month.
 
Energy prices climbed 13.5% from a year ago compared to a 10.3% rise in the previous month. Month-on-month, energy prices stood 2.5% higher. The price index for intermediate goods showed an annual increase of 2.4% versus 0.5% in the previous month. The monthly rise in the index was 1.2%.
 
Overall consumer price inflation rose to 1.5% in April, while the underlying inflation registered negative growth for the first time on record. The Spanish economy edged out of a deep recession in the first quarter, growing just 0.1%. However, economists believe the country is yet to see signs of a strong and sustained recovery. 
 
PORTUGAL
 
The PSI General in Lisbon limped into the weekend on 2,510.40, a daily dip of 0.07%.
 
Portugal Telecom SA, escalating a battle for Brazilian wireless operator Vivo Participacoes SA, is in talks with investors from the Middle East and Asia as it weighs a possible offer for Telefonica SA's stake.
 
"I can tell you for sure that there are people interested from the Middle East and from Asia," said Jose Maria Espirito Santo Ricciardi, an executive of Banco Espirito Santo SA, Portugal Telecom's second-biggest shareholder. He declined to name any of the investors.
 
Either Portugal Telecom buys Telefonica out of Vivo or the Portuguese operator needs to find another company in Brazil, Ricciardi, chief executive officer of Banco Espirito Santo's investment banking unit, said in an interview at Bloomberg's headquarters in New York Thursday. Brazil, whose economy analysts forecast will grow by the most in more than two decades this year, has South America's largest mobile-phone market.
 
Telefonica, Spain's largest phone company, prompted a fight for control of Vivo with an unsolicited 5.7 billion-Euro ($7 billion) offer on May 10 to buy Portugal Telecom's stake. The Portuguese company rejected the offer.
 
Mercantile Bank Holdings and financial services company Sasfin Holdings said Thursday they were exploring the possibility of a merger.
 
Mercantile's share price Thursday soared more than 9% to 24c after the announcement was made, while Sasfin's share price remained static at R37,10.
 
Mercantile said Thursday the proposals could result in Mercantile's parent, the state-owned Portuguese company Caiza Geral de Depositos, becoming a controlling shareholder of the entity.
 
EDP-Energias de Portugal SA, the European nation's largest power company, expects its Brazilian earnings to grow about 10% in each of the next three years as it invests in thermal, wind and hydro power projects.
 
An $800 million coal-fired plant near Porto do Pecem, in the Brazilian state of Ceara, that EDP is building with companies controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, will be ready by the end of 2011, EDP Chief Executive Officer Antonio Mexia said Thursday in an interview in New York. The company's $100 million Tramandai wind farm in the state of Rio Grande do Sul will be finished by the end of this year, he said.
 
Lisbon-based EDP is in a better position than other European utilities to expand in Brazil, where energy projects are more attractive than in the US, Mexia said. About 18% of EDP's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, come from Brazil, a higher percentage than its rivals in Europe, he said.
 
Investors "are excited with the fact that we are more exposed than others to Brazil," Mexia said. "There is a very good perception about the Brazilian market and the growth potential it represents, so it is a good asset for us."
 
US projects face "lower demand, a lower price of energy and sluggish regulation," Mexia said. EDP bought Horizon Wind Energy LLC of Texas from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in 2007 and says it's now the world's third-biggest wind-park operator.
 
ITALY
 
Italy's FTSE MIB Index declined 155.99, or 0.8%, to 19,475.88, giving the index a loss on the week of 0.3%.
 
Finmeccanica dropped 28 cents, or 3.2%, to 8.495 Euros, paring two days of gains. The defense company denied any wrongdoing amid press reports of an investigation by Italian prosecutors into alleged corruption in connection with foreign bank accounts that may have been used for kickbacks, according to a statement distributed by the Italian exchange.
 
Gruppo Coin surged 22.5 cents, or 4.5%, to 5.225 Euros, a third straight gain. Gruppo Banca Leonardo reiterated a 'buy" rating on Italy's largest clothing distributor, saying in a note that Coin "is well structured to defend its current positioning and increase its market shares mainly through the conversion of the Upim locations, despite the still weak consumer spending in Italy."
 
Telecom Italia gained 1.05 cents, or 1.1%, to 96.95 cents, a third straight increase. BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research upgraded Italy's biggest phone company to "neutral" from "underperform." The brokerage cited a "very poor performance."
 
Uni Land climbed for a third day, gaining 4.4 cents, or 8%, to 59.2 cents as the real-estate developer said it signed an agreement to purchase a majority stake in Fenergy, which develops photovoltaic parks.
 
Italy's borrowing costs may climb at the country's first debt sale since Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced 24.9 billion Euros ($30.7 billion) in budget cuts as governments struggle to address their deficits.
 
The Treasury plans to auction as much as 9.5 billion Euros of bonds Friday, including 4 billion Euros of 10-year debt. Italy sold 3.5 billion Euros of the same security at a yield of 4.09% on April 29. The yield on the benchmark 4% bond due September 2020 rose to as high as 4.14% Thursday.
 
Borrowing costs in southern Europe surged after Greece required a 110 billion-Euro three-year bailout to avoid default, compelling the most-indebted nations in the region to pledge budget cuts to reduce their deficits. Berlusconi's Cabinet approved the deficit package on May 25, while Spain's parliament passed the country's deepest budget cuts in 30 years by a single vote Thursday.
 
Italian business sentiment improved in May as the corresponding indicator reached the highest reading in almost two years, backed by increase in total orders and further reduction in inventories, a survey by ISAE showed Thursday. Meanwhile, production expectations dropped slightly.
 
Starting this month, the research institute is compiling the survey results using a new methodology, while the analysts' forecasts were related to the previous series.
 
The headline seasonally adjusted ISAE business confidence index rose to 96.2 in May, its highest since June 2008, from 95.9 in April, the research firm, which polled 4,000 companies between May 3 and May 18, said.
 
The gauge measuring the status of orders received showed a reading of minus 33 in May compared to minus 35 in April with both domestic and foreign demand stabilizing. Firms reported a slight reduction in inventories with the corresponding indicator dropping to minus 3 from minus 2 in the previous month.
 
Expectations on production also declined as the relevant indicator moved to minus 35 from minus 34. However, companies grew more pessimistic on the economic situation of the country as the corresponding measure fell to minus 19 from minus 14 in April.
 
The Italian government led by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi Thursday approved an austerity plan aggregating 24 billion Euros for the next two years as a part of efforts to reduce its budget deficit.
 
The measures reportedly consist of spending cuts and revenue increases, including a three-year wage freeze for public sector employees and a freeze on new recruitment in the next two years to help save up to 5 billion Euros.
 
GREECE
 
Athen's appropriately named ATHEX ended the Friday session and the last week of the month on 1,570.22, a drop of 0.52% on the day.
 
There was concern in the government Thursday that Greece might be appearing to renege on some commitments it has made to the European Commission and International Monetary Fund following comments made by a minister on TV on Monday that throw into doubt the date that pension reforms will come into effect.
 
Speaking to private Mega Channel on Monday, Labour and Social Insurance Minister Andreas Loverdos said that the EC wants Greece to make pension reforms, which foresee an increase in the legal retirement age and reduced monthly payments, apply from 2015 as opposed to 2018, the date agreed upon in a pact signed with the EC and IMF. The EC said Thursday that it had made a written request for the measures to apply as of 2015 but that Athens had already agreed to this when it signed the loan agreement.
 
Loverdos's decision to draw attention to this discrepancy was the main topic of discussion in government circles Thursday, according to sources. The same sources said that many other cadres of ruling PASOK also have serious reservations about other provisions in the agreement signed between Greece on the one hand and the EU, IMF and European Central Bank on the other. Some reportedly fear that many of the measures are too harsh and will not be swallowed by the Greek public.
 
The pension system overhaul is one of the reforms the government has committed to push through in exchange for a 110-billion-Euro aid package. The government's pension reform bill, which was due for submission in Parliament this week, is vehemently opposed by workers' unions, which describe it "unacceptable" and "outrageous" as it increases the number of years one has to work to get a full pension and abolishes entitlements enjoyed for decades by thousands of civil servants and other Labour groups.
 
Last week the country's two main unions, the civil servants' union ADEDY and the Confederation of Greek Labour (GSEE), which together represent close to 3 million workers, staged a 24-hour strike and protest rally against proposed the pension reforms.
 
Loverdos's draft law is aimed at ensuring that Greece's pension system, now teetering on the brink of collapse, will be viable in years to come but also means that, before the end of this decade, the basic monthly retirement payment will be just 360 Euros. According to Deputy Labour Minister Giorgos Koutroumanis, the reforms would result in an average reduction in pensions of 7% by 2030.
 
The Finance Ministry intends to replace the managers of tens of tax offices and investigate accusations of corruption made against revenue collection employees in a move to boost transparency and make the department more efficient.
 
The ministry will replace the heads of 20 tax offices throughout Greece after they failed to meet their targets in the first few months of the year as the government scrambles to collect the revenues needed to save the country from possible bankruptcy. Fifty official investigations will also be launched to check claims of corruption and negligence against employees mostly working at tax offices and customs points. The allegations were made on the four-digit 1517 phone hotline where taxpayers can report employees who ask for money in return for lightening their tax burden.
 
"Restoring transparency to tax collection services and protecting the work and reputation of employees... are the vital factors needed to secure a sustainable boost to state revenues," the ministry said in a statement.
 
The move comes after recent news that only three out of 67 revenue collection offices had met their goals for the first three months of the year.
 
At the same time, some 23 of them had not bothered to submit data to the ministry on income collected in the first quarter of the year.
 
Other changes announced Thursday include transferring 70 revenue collection officers to new positions and calling on 234 Finance Ministry employees to explain why they haven't filed a tax return for the 2007-08 period.
 
Some sources said that almost all of the 20 officials being demoted were employees appointed under the previous ruling conservative government while others said that the ministry is preparing the groundwork to replace employees with auditors from private companies.
 
In an article published in Kathimerini Friday, Panagiotis Grivas, the president of the Hellenic Federation of Tax Employees, welcomed the ministry's efforts, saying that they are a step toward boosting efficiency.
 
Grivas also called on the ministry to launch talks with the tax employees' union on all relevant topics in order to help them implement the government budget.   
    

The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsMarks & Spencer was among the stand-out gainers in a flat London market on Friday.
 
M&S rose 2.6% to 353¾p after UBS said the stock offered a "free option" on new chief executive Marc Bolland delivering.
 
Food market share and profit margin returning to peak levels would boost M&S's profit by about 40%, the broker calculated, with a further 10% possible from e-commerce growth and cost cuts.
 
The FTSE 100 erased an opening advance to end 0.1%, or 6.74 points, lower at 5,188.43.
 
That gave the index a 6.6% loss for May, its worst monthly performance since February 2009.
 
BP retraced Thursday's sharp gain after reports claiming it had tamed the Macondo oil spill proved optimistic. The stock lost 5% to 494¾p, taking 19 points off the Footsie.
 
Banks followed the trend lower, with Barclays down 1.2% at 305.1p, Lloyds Banking Group 0.5% weaker at 56½p and HSBC losing 1% to 627½p.
 
Deutsche Bank said that the banks were discounting a sharper European downturn than forecast by the consensus, and were ignoring the steps put in place by regulators to preserve sovereign solvency. The broker also argued that there are "far fewer middle-of-the-road investor views in evidence at present", which could force a squeeze as sentiment moved back to the centre.
 
Standard Chartered slid 2.7% to £16.37 after Exane BNP Paribas recommended switching into Barclays, Lloyds and the French banks "to take maximum advantage of current distressed entry levels for those names".
 
Better than expected full-year results lifted Severn Trent to head the blue-chip risers, up 3.4% to £11.98.
 
Hotelier Whitbread rose 2.7% to £13.85 after Nomura analysts turned positive "to reflect stronger medium-term business performance owing to strengthening market positions".
 
Aggreko gained 2.4% to £12.64 and Ashtead was up 2.8% to 106p after UBS highlighted both equipment rental stocks as a way to avoid "lacklustre" European growth. The US provides 85% of Ashtead's profit while Aggreko takes 94% of its earnings from outside Europe, it highlighted.
 
Among the mid-caps, Melrose Resources lost 10.2% to 251½p amid concerns that Robert Adair, its executive chairman and 50% shareholder, may have to cut his stake.
 
Booker lost 2.8% to 40p after four of its directors sold a total of 30m shares. The wholesaler was rumoured to be a potential target for a supermarket earlier this month.
 
PartyGaming lost 4% to 261p following a second profit warning in as many months from 888, its smaller peer, which blamed an industry-wide decline in online poker.
 
Premier Oil drifted 0.6% to £11.66 in spite of recurring speculation that a predator may be interested in its North Sea portfolio.
 
Travis Perkins jumped 6.1% to 790½p following its bid for BSS, which would see the plumbers' merchant equal Wolseley by market share in the UK. The news helped to trigger some renewed speculative interest in sector peers, such as SIG, up 3.6% to 118½p, and Galiform, up 3.3% to 71½p.
 
Jetion Solar, the Chinese solar cell maker, tumbled 27.4% to 71½p after warning that its first-half earnings would be hit by the Euro's decline.
 
The group, which makes most of its sales in Europe, said that full-year profitability would "largely" be determined by the Euro.
 
Berkeley Mineral Resources edged up 5.7% to 2¼p ahead of news expected early next week that it has secured rights to process waste at the Kabwe mine in Zambia, which has been estimated to contain 7m tonnes of lead and zinc. The group may raise £250,000 through a share sale at 2p each.
 
Gulf of Mexico-focused Leed Petroleum was up 27% to 5p after announcing it had more than doubled production.
 
Online casino operator 888 Holdings tumbled 20.8% to 53¼p after a profit warning. "The potential for 888 to be acquired has diminished in our view, largely because of the uncertainty over trading," said Numis Securities.
 
Plumbers' merchant BSS soared 34.5% to 437p after Travis Perkins said it was in advanced talks over making a cash-and-shares bid worth 439p a share at Friday's closing prices. Analysts were split on the chances of a counterbid with Collins Stewart arguing that Saint-Gobain was the only likely challenger but would shy away from a bidding war.
 
Byotrol, which develops anti-microbial hygiene products, gained 13.5% to 14¾p after it was awarded a research grant. It said Iain Duncan-Smith had resigned as a director after being appointed to government.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN
 
Japanese stocks rose, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to its biggest gain in two weeks, after shares surged in Europe and the US on China's pledge to invest in the Euro zone and as the Yen weakened.
 
Fanuc, which earns nearly 20% of its revenue in Europe, jumped 4.4%. Canon Inc., a camera maker that counts Europe as its biggest market, climbed 1.6%. Inpex Corp., Japan's largest energy explorer, rallied 4.2%. Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's biggest commodities trader, increased 1.4% as prices of metals and oil increased.
 
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.3% to 9,762.98 at the close in Tokyo after gaining as much as 1.9%. The broader Topix climbed 1% to 878.52, with more than three times as many shares advancing as decreasing. The Nikkei 225 dropped 0.2% this week, while the Topix slid 0.1%.
 
Companies in the Topix trade at 17.1 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 13.6 times for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and 11.4 times for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.
 
Fanuc jumped 4.4% to 9,650 Yen. Canon rose 1.6% to 3,740 Yen. Nintendo Co., a game maker that generates about 40% of its revenue in Europe, gained 2.8% to 26,760 Yen. Toyota Motor Corp., a carmaker that gets about 40% of its revenue in North America and Europe, advanced 0.8% to 3,300 Yen. The four companies were the biggest contributors to the Topix advance.
 
Sony Corp. climbed 1.8% to 2,838 Yen after the maker of the PlayStation 3 game machine announced plans to sell its digital-book device in China, Japan and Australia this year.
 
The Yen weakened to as low as 113.76 per Euro Friday from 110.96 at the 3 p.m. close of Tokyo stock trading Thursday. Against the Dollar, the Japanese currency depreciated to as much as 91.37 from 90.32. A weaker Yen boosts the value of overseas sales at Japanese companies when repatriated.
 
Mitsubishi rose 1.4% to 2,074 Yen, while Mitsui & Co., a trading house that counts commodities as its biggest source of profit, increased 1.4% to 1,321 Yen. Inpex, Japan's largest energy explorer, gained 4.2% to 570,000 Yen, the steepest rise since Nov. 5.
 
Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co., which owns part of Japan's top copper producer, gained 4.4% to 263 Yen after UBS AG boosted the equity rating to "buy" from "neutral." The mining industry was the biggest gainer on the Topix's 33 industry group.
 
Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co. slumped as much as 1.5% to 148,100 Yen in the final seconds of trading after gaining as much as 3%. The insurer, which listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on April 1, is being added to the benchmark Topix index Friday after the market shut. 
 
SOUTH KOREA
 
Seoul shares ended higher on Friday, posting a third consecutive gaining session and more than recouping the losses made since North Korea risks heightened earlier this week, with financials making a firm rebound.
 
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) finished up 0.95% at 1,622.78 points.
 
Shares in South Korea's Ssangyong Motor jumped by their 15% daily limit on Friday on expectations French carmaker Renault SA's local unit may battle India's Mahindra to buy the troubled firm, worth up to $500 million.
 
South Korea's smallest auto maker Ssangyong, 10% owned by China's SAIC Motor Corp, has been in court-led restructuring since early 2009, hammered by one of the industry's worst downturns.
 
Local online media outlet E-Daily cited a Renault Samsung official as saying the company was considering submitting a bid for Ssangyong.
 
Renault Samsung, the third-largest carmaker in South Korea after Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors, had no immediate response to the report.
 
A Seoul court kicked off the sale process for the cash-strapped SUV maker this month, and is set to receive letters of intent from potential bidders by later in the day.
 
India's top utility vehicle and tractor maker, Mahindra & Mahindra, is also interested in Ssangyong and may submit a letter of intent by the Friday deadline.
 
Shares in Ssangyong shot up 14.7% to a three-week high of 12,850 won before closing up 13% in heavy trade. Trading volume topped 3.3 million shares, over seven-fold the daily average.
 
South Korean media has put the value of the deal at $300 million-$500 million as a potential buyer is expected to subscribe to new shares amounting to Ssangyong's current market value of $370 million to own at least 50% of the company and also pay a management premium.
 
It could prove challenging to turn the loss-making carmaker around in South Korea's mature auto market, where one out of every three drives a car. Domestic automakers expect the proportion to rise to one of two, like the United States, Japan and Europe.
 
Ssangyong, which has just 2% of the domestic vehicle market, has suffered losses over the past two years and reported another net loss of 25.8 billion won in the first quarter.
 
HONG KONG
 
Hong Kong's stock market rallied on Friday on gains in financial and energy shares on short-covering after heavy selling earlier in the week.
 
While the benchmark Hang Seng recovered the week's sharp losses it was still on track to its second-worst monthly performance of the last 15 months with the index down 6%.
 
Hong Kong shares rose 1.73% on Friday as dealers welcomed China's rebuttal of claims that it was reviewing its Eurozone debt holding.
 
The benchmark Hang Seng Index ended 335.34 points higher at 19,766.71. Turnover was 71.67 billion Hong Kong Dollars.
 
China Titans Energy Technology Group Co., the electrical and power-grid equipment maker, rose as much as 47% after its shares started trading for the first time in Hong Kong.
 
The stock climbed as much as 55 Hong Kong cents and was trading at HK$1.56 at 2:51 p.m., a gain of 32%. The benchmark Hang Seng index rose 1.9%.
 
China Titans Energy, based in Guangdong province, raised HK$212.5 million ($27.3 million) in the share sale, according to a statement released by Hong Kong stock exchange Thursday. The price of the shares in the initial public offering was set at HK$1.18 each.
 
China, the world's second-biggest oil user, is developing the digital smart grid system to reduce costs, conserve energy and increase reliability of electricity supplies. State Grid Corp. of China, the larger of the nation's two grid operators, will spend 227.4 billion RMB ($33.3 billion) on its network this year, the company said Feb. 8.
 
China Titans posted net income of 54 million RMB ($7.9 million) last year, an increase of 39% on 2008.
 
CHINA
 
China's key stock index closed flat on Friday, losing steam after a technical rally early in the session spurred by stronger overseas markets, although it posted its biggest weekly gain in eight weeks.
 
China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 2,655.8 points, down a marginal 0.01%, after jumping more than 1% to a two-week intraday high at the start of trade.
 
The index has steadied in recent sessions after last week's tumble to a one-year low, with a gain of 2.8% for the week, but remains one of Asia's worst performers this year, down nearly 19%.
 
China's government has deployed a host of policy measures to curb speculation in the sizzling property sector, causing property shares to suffer the brunt of Shanghai's stock market falls.
 
Property shares widely underperformed the benchmark, with Shanghai's property subindex .SSEP down 1.4%. The index is down 27% on the year, with investors spooked over looming property tightening measures.
 
The property sector was among the weakest performers after the Securities Times reported on a possible levy of property tax in Shanghai. China Vanke Co shrank 1.33% to 7.43 RMB. Poly Real Estate lost 2.47% to 11.44 RMB. Gemdale Co sank 2.89% to 6.73 RMB.
 
Steel mills also dragged down the index on worries about shrinking demand. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co dipped 0.92% to 6.48 RMB. Angang Steel Company trailed 1.05% to 8.50 RMB. Beijing Shougang Co was 1.27% lower at 3.90 RMB.
 
The pharmaceutical sector led the gainers. Beijing Tongrentang Co, a leading Chinese medicine company, gained 3.22% to 29.14 RMB. Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients Co climbed 4.23% to 16.28 RMB. Harbin Pharmaceutical Group CO went up 2.28% to 22.45 RMB.
 
The Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.2% over the week, the most since April.
 
Losing Shanghai stocks outnumbered gainers 443 to 407, while turnover edged up to 98 billion RMB ($14.35 billion) from Thursday's 96 billion RMB.
 
TAIWAN
 
Taiwan shares closed up 0.72% Friday on buying triggered by a strong overnight rebound on Wall Street that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the key 10,000 point level again, dealers said later that day.
 
The weighted index closed up 52.16 points at 7,295.32, after moving between 7,271.30 and 7,364.01, on turnover of NT$101.71 billion (US$3.17 billion).
 
The market opened up 1.32% as investors took their cues from the Wall Street gains, but profit-taking emerged during the trading session that compromised the earlier gains, with the index approaching the nearest technical resistance at around 7,400 points, the dealers said.
 
The textile sector posted the strongest gains, up 2.18%, followed by plastics and chemicals at 0.90%, the paper and pulp sector, up 0.79%, the construction sector, which increased 0.75%, and the cement sector, which saw a 0.73% rise.
 
The electronics sector closed up 0.72%, the financial sector rose 0.41% and the foodstuff sector was up 0.3%.
 
Among the textile stocks, Tainan Spinning rose 3.60% to NT$12.95 and Chuwa Wool Industry gained 2.15% to close at NT$33.30.
 
AU Optronics closed up 1.98% at NT$30.95 after announcing that it will join forces with SunPower of the United States to set up a US$700 million solar cell plant in Malaysia.
 
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. closed unchanged at NT$58.70, while rival United Microelectronics Corp. added 1.77% to end the trading session at NT$14.34.
 
Friday marked the market's third consecutive day of gains after a 3.23% dive May 25 to an eight-month low.
 
The market is expected to challenge the 7,500 point level next week starting from Tuesday, as investors have embraced high hopes about the high-tech sector's May sales reports.
 
THE PHILIPPINES
 
Local share prices extended their winning streak on Friday, mirroring gains in Wall Street overnight.
 
Traders said better-than-expected first-quarter economic figures on the local front, and China's plans to keep its European holdings encouraged investors to pick up some more stocks.
 
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index surged 3% or 96.10 points to 3,252.63. Friday's advance brought the market's week-on-week gains to 2.3%.
 
The broader all-share index also rose 2.5% or 49.78 points to 2,049.38.
 
All sectoral indices trekked higher, with the holdings sector up the most. It outperformed the main gauge, with a 5.1% jump.
 
Overall, market breadth was positive as advancers swamped decliners, 94 to 26. There were 46 issues unchanged.
 
A total of 1 billion shares worth P3.5 billion were traded.
 
A tenth of that amount came from SM Prime Holdings Inc., making it the most actively traded stock by value. SM Prime closed flat at P10.50 per share.
 
Meantime, banking stocks were also actively traded on strong foreign buying.
 
Bank of the Philippine Islands rose 1.1% to P44.50 while Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. soared 3.6% to P57.
 
Top lender Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. jumped 2.3% to P43.50 after it announced it was expecting a 30% increase in its 2010 net income to P8.1 billion.
 
ABS-CBN Broadcasting Corp. also ended in positive territory for the third straight day, adding 2.7% to P38.50. That was the stock's highest closing price since August 7, 2001.
 
Sentiment on ABS-CBN has been positive due to expectations that its ad revenues may exceed P15 billion this year.
 
For next week, traders said the market's movement will still be dictated by the performance of the US and European markets, adding that on the local front, investors will wait for the latest inflation data as they monitor election canvassing proceedings.
 
Markets in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia were closed for a Public Holiday Friday.
 
INDIA
 
Stocks in India continue to rally on positive earnings and global markets rally. Rupee advanced. Tata Motors net more than doubled on lower costs and rising unit sales volume. Alstom and Schneider offer to buy 20% in Areva T&D. Reliance Industries makes fifth oil discovery.
 
Indian Rupee strengthened on a global rally led by Asian stocks and improved investor risk appetite in emerging markets. The benchmark index also gained after closing at a three-month low on May 25.
 
The Sensex index in India increased 196.66 or 1.18% to 16,863.06 and CNX Nifty index rose 63.40 or 1.27% to 5,066.50. Among the Sensex 30 stocks, 24 rose and 6 fell.
 
On BSE trading, 1,900 stocks advanced, 878 declined and 93 were unchanged.
 
Shares of six software exporters underperformed the market as the Rupee strengthened against the Dollar.
 
Rupee edged higher 57 paisa to Rs. 46.72 against one Dollar.
 
Bonds in India continued to fall as payment of advance taxes and mobile phone license fee crimped the cash in the financial system.
 
The size of the Reserve Bank's daily reverse-repurchase auctions, an indicator of surplus cash in the system, dropped to an average of 6,400 crore Rupees each day this week from 42,800 crore Rupees last week, pushing the overnight inter-bank rates to their highest levels since March.
 
The wholesale price index in India decreased 0.10% to 298.9 from 299.2 for the previous week. For the year ending in the week average inflation surged to 15.90% compared to 6.97% in the same period a year ago.
 
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Co, India's fifth-largest money manager is planning to boost allocation to stocks in its portfolio.
 
Birla, with 80% of its assets under management of nearly 79,000 crore Rupees ($17 billion) in bonds, is profiting from the biggest bond rally in the year, said the company's CEO, A. Balasubramanian in an interview at his Mumbai office on May 26.
 
The company is planning to increase its stock holdings from the current 20% to as much as 30%, as earnings will withstand slower global economic growth as Indian companies are more focused on the domestic market and have the least share among Asia based companies from export earnings, said Balasubramanian.
 
Tata Motors earnings in the fiscal year ending in March surged 124% to Rs 2,240.08 crore compared to Rs 1,001.26 crore in the year ago. Revenues increased 39% to Rs 35,393 crore from Rs 25,630 crore in the previous year.
 
On a consolidated basis, Tata Motors reported a net profit of Rs. 2,571 crore, a significant turnaround from the previous year's loss of Rs 2,505 crore. Consolidated revenues increased 31% at Rs 92,519 crore.
 
Bharti Airtel said on Thursday that it is negotiations with banks to fund the purchase of Africa operations of Kuwait-based Zain Telecom, moving the $10.7 billion deal closer to completion.
 
On completion of the acquisition, Bharti would be required to pay another $700 million to Zain after a year, and assuming $1.7 billion debts associated with the African assets, the company release said.
 
With just one day left for the first IDR by Standard Chartered Plc to be completed, the company has yet to find buyers for nearly 84% of the $500 million of stocks it is selling in India.
 
Lignite production from all mines of Neyveli Lignite Corporation put together at 213.07 lakh tons is the highest for any year since inception against 215.86 lakh tons in 2008-09. Gross power generation was higher at 17,657.94 million units as against 15,797.98 million units in the previous year.
 
Mine-II expansion project increasing the capacity to 15 million tons annually from 10.5 million tons attained full lignite production capacity on March 12 and was dedicated to the nation by the Union Minister of State for Coal, Sriprakash Jaiswal on April 5.
 
Areva T&D India Limited added 6.9% to Rs 286.10 after the consortium of Alstom Holdings and Schneider Electric along with Areva T&D Holding SA and others have made an open offer to buy 20% stake in the company.
 
Blue Star Limited rose 2.9% to Rs 406.00 after the company said its board will meet on Monday, May 31 to consider a proposal for purchase of a business.
 
D B Corp rose 1.4% to Rs 239.60 after the company's net profit rose 45.8% to Rs 40.95 crore.
 
Engineers India Limited decreased 1.5% to Rs 315.55 the engineering company said fourth quarter sales rose 57% to Rs 640.3 crore from Rs 407.6 crore a year ago. Net profit for the quarter fell 21.4% to Rs 124.9 crore compared to net profit of Rs 158.8 crore a year ago.
 
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited rose 0.4% to Rs 270.15 after the pharmaceutical company said fourth quarter sales rose 44% to Rs 709 crore from Rs 491 crore a year ago. Net profit for the quarter was Rs 102.6 crore compared to net loss of Rs 120.6 crore a year ago.
 
Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited increased 8.8% to Rs 228.90 after the real estate development and construction company said fourth quarter sales rose 6% to Rs 434.1 crore from Rs 408.8 crore a year ago. Net profit for the quarter rose 9% to Rs 177.8 crore compared to net profit of Rs 162.8 crore a year ago.
 
Indian Oil Corporation Limited rose 0.3% to Rs 341.30 after the refinery said fourth quarter sales rose 11% to Rs 66,116 crore from Rs 59,596.7 crore a year ago. Net profit for the quarter fell 16% to Rs 5,557 crore compared to net profit of Rs 6,623 crore a year ago.
 
Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited gained 6.1% to Rs 393.00 after the company said a board meeting will be held on May 31 to consider raising funds by various routes.
 
Reliance Industries Limited rose 0.7% to Rs 1,029.65 after the company said on Friday it had discovered oil in one of its exploration blocks in the Cambay Basin. This is its fifth oil discovery in the region.
 
Shree Renuka Sugars Limited increased 6.3% to Rs 58.65 after the company''s proposed billion-Dollar acquisition of the world''s largest sugar producer in Brazil is likely to be canceled.
 
Steel Authority of India Limited climbed 3.5% to Rs 205.55 said fourth quarter sales rose 2% to Rs 12,229.7 crore from Rs 11,986 crore a year ago. Net profit for the quarter rose 40.3% to Rs 2,084 crore compared to net profit of Rs 1,485 crore a year ago.

 
Surya Pharmaceutical Limited advanced 2.1% to Rs 170.20 after the company''s board of directors approved fund raising through various routes.
 
Tata Motors Limited gained 5.4% to Rs 748.00 after the commercial vehicle manufacturer said full year sales rose 30.6% to Rs 91,893.5 crore from Rs 70,370.4 crore a year ago. Net profit for the year was Rs 2,571.1 crore compared to net loss of Rs 2,505.3 crore a year ago.
 
AUSTRALIA
 
The Australian share market closed strongly higher for the third consecutive positive day, following a strong performance on US markets and despite ongoing uncertainty in Europe.
 
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed up 78.3 points, or 1.79%, at 4,457.5 points and the broader All Ordinaries index gained 79.9 points, or 1.82%, to 4,479 points.
 
On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the June share price index contract was 76 points higher at 4,458 on a volume of 36,583 contracts.
 
Commonwealth Bank was up $1.39 at $52.12, Westpac was up 68 cents at $23.40, National Australia Bank had lifted 63 cents to $24.78 and ANZ was up 43 cents at $22.52.
 
BHP Billiton rose 12 cents to $38.97. The global miner said it had confirmed the joint venture for its Indonesian Coal Project (ICP) with a subsidiary of PT Adaro Energy TBK (Adaro).
 
Rival Rio Tinto was up $1.17 cents, or 1.75%, at $68.20. Virgin Blue fell 12 cents, or 27.91%, to 31 cents after the airline lowered its full year profit guidance.
 
Among energy stocks, Santos rose 14 cents to $12.41 and said Friday that it had moved a step closer to proceeding with its proposed $7.7 billion Gladstone liquefied natural gas (GLNG) project in Queensland.
 
Oil Search had gained two cents to $5.56, Woodside was up 83 cents, or 1.95%, at $43.46.
 
In other news on Friday, woodchipper Gunns surged 43.64%, or 12 cents, to 39.5 cents, as investors reacted to Thursday's news that chairman John Gay had resigned from the post.
 
CSR rose 3.5 cents to $1.695 after it said that an agreement to acquire Mackay Sugar's 25% shareholding in the joint-venture sugar refining businesses - Sugar Australia and New Zealand Sugar - had expired.
 
Consolidated Media rose five cents to $3.10. Shareholders on Friday overwhelmingly approved the media holding company's share buyback.
 
Insurer and fund manager Tower gained 12 cents to $2.27 despite saying the markets it operates in have not been conducive to revenue growth.
 
James Hardie Industries SE rose 29 cents, or 4.08%, to $7.40. The building materials group said its proposed move of domicile to Ireland was not a stepping stone to the United States.
 
Virgin Blue was the most traded stock by volume with 221.56 million shares changing hands at a total value of $70.09 million.
 
Its stock fell 12 cents, or 27.91%, to 31 cents.
 
National turnover was 2.41 billion shares worth $8.47 billion, with 799 stocks up, 294 down, and 304 unchanged.
 
NEW ZEALAND
 
The New Zealand sharemarket started the day with a burst which fizzled out as the day progressed and a mixed bag of profit results were reported.
 
The strong start followed gains by global equities, as investor worry was eased after China rejected a report it was reviewing its Euro-zone bond holdings due to the region's debt crisis.
 
The benchmark NZX-50 index closed up 12.913 points, or 0.425%, at 3047.746. Turnover was worth $93.5 million. There were 56 rises and 27 falls among the 115 stocks traded.
 
Insurer and fund manager Tower gained 5c to 189, after saying it would pay its first interim dividend since 2002 as it reported a 28.8% rise to $27.7m in underlying half year profit.
 
Fisher & Paykel Appliances ended unchanged at 55 after saying its appliances business had recovered in the second half of the financial year, despite a continuation of difficult trading conditions in the United States. Full year normalised group profit after tax of $18m, was down from $33.8m the year before.
 
Fletcher Building rose 19c to 812 on a day in which the number of consents for new buildings showed an encouraging surge in April, but were still running at historically low levels.
 
Contact Energy ended down 5c at 587 after gained 8c in early trading.
 
Mainfreight, which reported earlier this week, rose 24c to 620. Sanford, which disappointed investors with its profit report this week, fell 2c to 425.
 
AMP rose 27 to 695 and AMP Office Trust rose 2c to 73.
 
NZX rose 5c to 165. NZOG rose 4c to 141 and NZ Refining rose 13c to 338.
 
TrustPower rose 10c to 725, Nuplex rose 2c to 302 and Auckland Airport rose 1c to 188.
 
SkyTV rose 5c to 470 and SkyCity rose 2c to 294.
 
Allied Farmers fell 0.5c to 5.9c after disclosing a further downward revaluation of the assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance.
 
Xero rose 8c to 145.       
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesCommodities prices consolidated their recovery on Friday, with oil prices surging briefly above the significant $75-a-barrel level.
 
The rise in prices over the past two days came after a warning of an active hurricane season, which influences the cost not just of oil, but of commodities such as natural gas and orange juice.
 
The US government said that the hurricane season, which begins on June 1, could be "one of the most active seasons on record".
 
Nymex July West Texas Intermediate rose in early trading to a two-week peak of $75.72 a barrel, but later the contract fell 58 cents to $73.97 a barrel, still up 5.5% on the week.
 
Meanwhile, ICE July Brent closed at $74.02 a barrel. Natural gas and oil products such as gasoline and heating oil also rose on the week. The recovery in oil caps a two-week period of high volatility, which saw WTI down more than 25% at one point from its early May peak.
 
The US Department of Energy on Thursday said the country's oil demand increased in March by a hefty 398,000 barrels a day to 19.07m b/d.
 
Analysts said that the strong reading, coupled with a strong rise in Chinese consumption, could push global oil demand this year up by about 1.5m b/d.
 
The International Energy Agency's latest forecast for oil demand growth in 2010 stands at 1.6m b/d, mostly owing to China and India.
 
Elsewhere in the commodities markets, gold and silver prices were volatile this week, but they held on to most of their gains.
 
Spot bullion in London traded on Friday at $1,210 a troy ounce, while silver was at $18.5 an ounce. Traders are bullish for both metals because of strong investor flows.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 A turbulent week on the currency markets pushed the Dollar and Yen lower as risk appetite made a tentative return.
 
This weighed on haven demand for both the US and Japanese currencies at the end of the week.
 
It was a different story early in the week and late Friday as concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis, and Spanish banks in particular, weighed on global equities and hit confidence. Those concerns were exacerbated by rising hostility between North and South Korea.
 
Commodity-linked currencies, which are highly sensitive to the prospects for global growth, rallied sharply.
 
Over the week, the Australian Dollar rose 1.9% to $0.8481 against the US Dollar, while the Canadian Dollar gained 1.2% to C$1.0467. The Dollar dropped 0.4% to $1.4528 against the Pound.
 
The Dollar did advance against the Yen and the Swiss franc, which have benefited from haven demand driven by the bout of turbulence on global markets. Over the week, the Dollar rose 1.1% to Y91.01 against the Yen and 0.3% to SFr1.1529 against the Swiss franc.
 
The Dollar also advanced against the Euro as the fiscal problems in the Eurozone continued to weigh on the single currency.
 
The Euro dropped to a low of $1.2152 on Thursday, just above the four-year trough of $1.2142 it hit last week, after an article in the Financial Times said China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which manages the country's vast foreign exchange reserves, was concerned over its exposure to peripheral Eurozone government debt. This raised speculation that China might be reviewing its policy of diversifying its reserves away from the Dollar and into the Euro, a big source of support for the single currency in recent years.
 
The Euro staged a rally after China reiterated its commitment to investing in the Eurozone.
 
But from my experience, given the wholesale long-term negative prospects for the Euro, how could China not be reviewing their longer-term outlook? They are simply too 'currency-savvy' nowadays to ignore such a deep-rooted problem.
 
Or maybe, they are just stuck for lack of alternatives because as I have said previously in recent weeks, my long-term view for the Dollar itself remains very bearish.
 
Over the week, the Euro fell 1.7% to $1.2361 against the Dollar and dropped 2.1% to £0.8509 against the Pound.
 
South Africa's Rand weakened against the Dollar on Friday largely tracing a weaker Euro while domestic stocks edged lower as jittery investors locked in profits following a two-day surge.
 
The Rand snapped two straight days of gains as investor sentiment turned against high-yielding assets. The Rand traded at 7.60, 0.3% weaker than its previous New York close of 7.5745.
 
And finally with currencies this week, here in China the RMB. The US Dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese RMB as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8315 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8312.  
 
The People's Bank of China said China should develop more products denominated in gold to help internationalize the RMB.   
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina said that a report that it's reviewing foreign-exchange holdings of Euro assets are "groundless" and the nation's sovereign wealth fund said it's maintaining its European investments.
 
"Europe has been, and will be one of the major markets for investing China's exchange reserves," the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement on its website today. The official Xinhua News Agency reported China Investment Corp. President Gao Xiqing said Thursday Europe's turmoil "hasn't had too big of an impact" on CIC's investment decisions.
 
The comments came on a day of respite for the Euro, which snapped a three-day losing streak after tumbling this month to a four-year low against the Dollar. Concern that Europe's crisis will hamper a rebound in global trade has spurred traders to reduce bets that China will let its own currency appreciate against the Dollar, RMB forwards showed.
 
"The government doesn't have many options at the moment because global financial markets face many uncertainties," said Zhao Qingming, a senior analyst at China Construction Bank in Beijing, the nation's second-largest lender. "It's hard to weigh risks from one to the other."
 
Zhao, who previously worked as a researcher at the central bank, said that "cutting Euro assets means the government would have to increase Dollar holdings, but the US Dollar itself may not be a perfect option over a longer term." The White House projects a record $1.6 trillion budget deficit this year.
 
SAFE, which manages China's $2.4 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, said in its statement that "the media report that SAFE is reviewing its Euro holdings was groundless," without specifying the media to which it was referring.
 
The Financial Times reported Thursday that the agency was reviewing its Euro region debt holdings and that its representatives had met with foreign bankers in recent days to discuss the matter.
 
China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund will maintain its investments in the Euro area, CIC's Gao said according to Xinhua, which cited a May 26 interview in Paris. Gao was in the French capital to attend a forum held by the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development.
 
CIC, which manages a portion of the nation's foreign currency reserves for the administration, will "closely watch" the short-term market volatility of the Euro region, Xinhua cited Gao as saying. The sovereign wealth fund will also watch the stability of the Euro and changes in EU policy, Gao was cited as saying.
 
The fund is a financial investor and has no political goals, Xinhua cited Gao as saying. CIC will avoid investing in the gambling and tobacco industries and in industries that produce weapons of mass destruction, Gao was cited as saying.
 
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Shanghai, China's richest city, will introduce a property tax policy on a trial basis next month, the Economic Observer reported, citing an unindentified person.
 
The report didn't identify the nature of the tax and said more detailed policies may be announced at a later date. The 21st Century Business Herald reported on May 14 the prospect of expanding a tax on commercial-use properties to residences.
 
Our interpretation is that this should be the expanding of existing tax for commercial-use properties to residential real estate. It may not need approval from the State Council for the tax because it's a local tax. There's speculation that Shanghai will tax only new purchases of large homes so the impact would be mild potentially.
 
China's property stocks fell the most in more than a week today on concern the government is stepping up measures to clamp down on property speculation to tame asset bubbles. It has raised banks' reserve requirements three times this year and restricted pre-sales by developers, curbed loans for third-home purchases, raised minimum mortgage rates and tightened down- payment requirements for second-home purchases.
 
Prices for new homes in Shanghai dropped 16% in the week ended May 23 to below 20,000 RMB per square meter from the previous week, property consultant Shanghai UWin Real Estate Information Services Co. said in an e-mailed statement Thursday.
 
New home prices last week fell to 19,204 RMB per square meter, while transactions for new homes rebounded 27% from the previous week's five-year low, it said. China's real estate prices rose a record 12.8% in April from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on May 11.
 
China should be cautious in introducing new tightening measures because the global economic environment is complex, Xu Lianzhong, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission's price-monitoring center, wrote in a commentary Thursday in the China Securities Journal. The government is trying to peel back the effects of a stimulus plan and $1.4 trillion lending binge that revived economic growth while raising the risk of asset bubbles.
 
Shanghai's municipal government may levy an annual tax of about 1.5% of the value of properties, the Hunan province-based Xiaoxiang Morning Herald newspaper reported May 13 on its website, citing a developer who declined to be identified. Sealand's Zhao said today there was market speculation the tax might be around 0.8%.
 
"As soon as the government policy is clear, whatever it is, the market will come back," Zhang Xin, chief executive officer of Soho China Ltd., the biggest developer in Beijing's central business district, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. "What the market doesn't like is there might be something more coming next week, then let's just wait and that waiting doesn't help."
 
Poly Real Estate Group Co., the second-largest listed developer, lost 4% to 11.66 RMB in Shanghai. China Vanke Co., the biggest, dropped 3.9% to 7.40 RMB. The Se Shang Property Index lost 2.5%.
 
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China has the world's worst performing equity market this year and the best returns on initial public offerings.
 
While the Shanghai Composite Index has slid 19% for the steepest drop among the 10 largest stock markets, IPOs are beating the country's benchmark equity indexes by 33 percentage points on average in their first month of trading, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
 
Chinese individuals restricted from international investments have helped snap up $25 billion in IPOs this year, three times more than were sold in the US, as inflation erodes savings and the government clamps down on property speculation. The rally by newly listed companies has made their shares almost twice as expensive relative to profits as the broader stock market, a sign to firms from KBC-Goldstate Fund Management to hedge fund Platinum Partners that a bubble may be forming.
 
The fastest expansion among the 20 biggest economies has helped spur the surge in China's IPO market. The country's gross domestic product grew 11.9% in the first quarter, the most in almost three years and about four times the US GDP.
 
The amount raised from Chinese IPOs may double after the sale by Beijing-based Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. The nation's third-largest lender by assets will seek at least $30 billion in Shanghai and Hong Kong, according to the Beijing Times. That would be the world's biggest initial offering, exceeding the $22 billion deal by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. of Beijing in 2006.
 
Chinese IPOs have advanced 32% on average in their first month of trading, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen composite declined.
 
Local investors who have a total of 146 million brokerage accounts are seeing their investment choices outside of equities limited by inflation that's eroding China's $7.2 trillion of savings and government curbs on mortgage loans.
 
Consumer prices climbed 2.8% last month, surpassing the one-year savings rate of 2.25%. The pace of inflation is forecast to rise 3.4% this year, the median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg shows.
 
Citigroup of New York and Paris-based BNP Paribas SA project that home prices will drop 20% this year, after Chinese policy makers increased bank reserve requirements three times in the past three months to slow lending. Property prices surged the most on record in April, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.
 
Gains by Chinese IPOs have pushed valuations to an average 46 times estimated profits, Bloomberg data show.
 
That's almost three times as much as companies traded in Shanghai, valued at 16 times earnings, and about double the ratio for Shenzhen-listed stocks.
 
Chongqing Water Group Co. is valued at 35.1 times its estimated profit after a 59% advance in its first month of trading. That's more than double the average price-earnings ratio for companies in the Shanghai gauge, which fell 5.2% over the same period.
 
The $511 million IPO in March gave the supplier of water to the southwestern municipality of Chongqing a market capitalization of $4.9 billion.
 
Investors in East Money Information Co., the Shanghai-based provider of online financial information, paid 56 times the company's estimated profits in its IPO, or 117% more than the average company in the Shenzhen measure of equities, Bloomberg data show. The company gained 93% in its first month of trading, helping to push its valuation to 92 times earnings, or more than three times the broader market.
 
The Shenzhen index rose 4.9% in the same span.
 
"A lot of the ones trading were really rocket shots," said Uri Landesman, president of New York-based hedge fund Platinum Partners, which oversees more than $500 million. "It definitely does look like there could be bubble-like tendencies in the Chinese IPO market."
 
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China and India signed a slew of agreements on Thursday intended to strengthen political and economic ties between the two countries, Chinese state television said.
 
The pacts were inked in the presence of visiting Indian President Pratibha Patil and her Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao in Beijing, and the two leaders vowed to enhance co-operation between the two Asian giants.
 
Speaking at the signing ceremony, Patil expressed the hope that the pacts would increase the volume of bilateral trade and economic exchanges as well as close co-operation on key international issues. Moreover, she was optimistic about New Delhi and Beijing reaching a consensus on steps to reform international financial institutions and tackling climate change.
 
Further, the state media quoted Prime Minister Wen Jiabao as saying that improved relations between the world's two economic power houses will be to the advantage of people on both sides.
 
Currently China is India's largest trading partner but ties between the two countries, which went to war in the fifties, remained at best cordial mainly as a result of unresolved border disputes and Beijing's claim over the North-Eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.
 
In 2008, bilateral trade shot up 34% to reach $51.8 billion but it slumped to $43.27 billion due to the impact of the economic downturn.
 
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Demand for steel in China is declining in line with prices because of rising automobile inventories and government curbs on property loans and, said Wuhan Iron & Steel Group, the nation's third-biggest steelmaker.
 
"Clients are holding off placing orders with the property tightening in China and the European debt crisis," Li Juzhong, a production manager of the company, said in an interview Thursday in Kunshan. "Car stockpiles are high. We are boosting our marketing efforts."
 
Baosteel Group Corp., China's second-biggest steel mill, said this month mills may face a "difficult" second half as concern increases that the government measures will trim demand. Benchmark steel prices have fallen 7.7% from an 18-month high on April 15, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.
 
China's vehicle production exceeded demand by 999,600 units in the first four months of this year, according to the China Automotive Technology & Research Center. Concern Europe's debt woes will derail growth has jolted investors and pushed the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 8.9% this year.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies gather in the South Korean port city of Busan later next week to grapple with Europe's debt crisis, financial reforms and efforts to rebalance the global economy. The meeting will lay groundwork for a summit of G20 leaders in Toronto later in June.
 
The G20 needs to send some kind of signal about what they plan to do to stabilize markets, because next week, we will probably start to see major focus on Italy and Spain.
 
US markets are hoping to return to focusing on the data that drove strength in stocks and the Dollar in the months before the meltdown. The most important factor will be Friday's jobs report, but the gulf between high and low estimates leaves markets potentially exposed to anything that could foretell Friday's report. Markets will also watch the Euro zone for impact on forex and bonds. Yields are being tugged in both directions with strong data on one hand and the Euro zone on the other. The Euro's recent fear-based correlation with the S&P 500 has started to fray, suggesting investors are starting to believe the world (or at least the United States) can survive a Eurocentric problem. 
 
Europe's debt crisis has hit financial markets hard, but the US economy has yet to show signs of suffering. That could change when the Institute for Supply Management issues its May factory reading on Monday. The headline number is seen softening only a bit, but analysts will look at the forward-looking orders category to see if businesses have begun to pull back.
 
The exports subindex also bears watching. A separate ISM report on the services sector on Thursday should offer hope that the recovery is on solid ground. And on Friday, the monthly US employment report is expected to show a huge 503,000 jobs gain for May. While government hiring for the decennial census could account for about half of the rise, private payrolls likely turned in their strongest performance since March 2006. That could temper fears Europe could knock the US recovery off track.
 
A glut of US data releases will also give investors much to ponder with the schedule of reports getting heavier as the week progresses. US financial markets are closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
 
Tuesday's releases include a report on construction spending in April, forecast to have fallen 0.1% and the ISM manufacturing index for May, expected to post at 59.7.
 
Wednesday's reports include Challenger layoffs data for May and US pending home sales for April with the latter seen rising 3.3%, according to a Reuters poll.
 
Thursday's data includes the ADP national employment report, forecast to show an increase of 51,000 and the government's weekly initial jobless claims.
 
Later that day, April factory orders, expected to rise 1%, and the ISM services index for May, expected at 55.6, will be released.
 
The US non-farm payrolls data will round out the week on Friday. The government report is expected to show 425,000 new jobs for the month, up from 290,000 new jobs created in April, with the unemployment rate falling to 9.8% from 9.9% - as I said at the outset of this Newsletter, whilst unemployment continues to rise .....
 
Just as he did at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting a few weeks ago, Warren Buffett can be expected to mount a stout defence of credit rating agencies when he testifies before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in New York on Wednesday.
 
Buffett, whose investment company owns a stake in Moody's, said the agencies, which are facing tough reforms in the financial regulation legislation moving through Congress, had made the same mistake that he, politicians, mortgage brokers and others did in overestimating the health of the housing market (but he failed to mention the billions he made from those over-estimations!)
 
While the audience won't be made up of diehard fans this time, a mauling looks unlikely as the commission still appears to be finding its teeth. Moody's CEO Raymond McDaniel is also scheduled to appear before the panel, which must deliver its findings to Congress and the US President late in the year.
 
Here in the AsiaPac region next week, for Australia, we learn the first quarter GDP result (forecasts around 0.4%) on Wednesday which comes a day after the RBA rate decision on Tuesday.
 
The RBA has already hinted there's no chance of a rate rise this month, or probably for a while, but with all that has transpired since the May meeting commentators are now discussing the possibility of a rate cut. Go figure!
 
Next week in Australia also sees first quarter company profits and current account, April private sector credit, the monthly TD Securities inflation gauge, the manufacturing index and the monthly trade balance, most front-loaded in the beginning of the week.
 
Tuesday is indeed global PMI day, in which most major regions report their monthly manufacturing surveys (Australia, China, Eurozone, UK and US) followed by equivalent service sector surveys spread out across the week.
 
Next week's Japanese economic calendar includes the Monday release of April industrial output, housing starts and construction orders. Industrial output is expected at 1.8% to 1.2% last month. Housing starts are expected at 3% compared to 7.5% last month. Construction orders are expected 20.8% compared to 42.3% last month.
 
In Europe the EU economic calendar includes Monday's release of EU April M3 expected at -0.2% compared to -0.1% last month along with EU May business climate index expected at 0.20 compared to 0.23 last month.
 
May HICP will also be released on Monday, expected at 1.6% compared to 1.5% last month.
 
On Tuesday German April retail sales will be released expected at -1% compared to -2.4% last month along with German May unemployment expected unchanged at 7.8%.
 
EU May manufacturing PMI will be released on Tuesday expected at 57.3 compared to 57.6 last month along with EU April employment expected unchanged at 10%.
 
On Wednesday EU May service is PMI Index will be released expected at 55.2 compared to 55.6 last month.
 
In the UK, we have those PMI figures Tuesday - Manufacturing growth is expected to have continued at roughly the same pace as in April, which saw the PMI index hit its highest level in more than 15 years, due to strong demand, especially for exports.
 
There is consumer credit Wednesday - Bank of England data is expected to show a small rise in mortgage approvals, but the monthly total will still be slightly below levels of late 2009 and well below the 70,000-80,000 level that has historically been considered necessary for sustained price rises.
 
Thursday sees the Nationwide House Price Survey.  The Nationwide index may show a slowdown in monthly house price rises, due to challenging fundamentals from high unemployment and low earnings growth as well as temporary jitters around May's election and coalition negotiations.
 
To the all-important 'currency question' - where is the Euro headed next week?
 
While risk indicators such as Libor and the Vix remain elevated, conditions in the markets have clearly been less tense in the second half of this week.
 
The better tone in markets begs the question as to whether corrections in markets such as oil and stocks is complete or whether only a temporary base has been reached. I think the latter and within one or two weeks, we'll see further corrections.
 
On the whole US economic data has been fairly encouraging lately, but this has been coupled with large doses of financial media 'spin' and this has cast an overly positive outlook on what are in essence, negative fundamentals.
 
This week the Bundesbank reported that the pace of the German economic recovery increased in Q2; its exporters likely benefiting from the softer Eur. The false (in my opinion) perception that the global economic recovery remains on track may encourage a continuation of the short-squeeze in the Euro in the near-term.
 
That said there is still the potential for bad news particularly relating to levels of debt in the Eurozone and whether or not some holders of debt are facing haircuts. News from the Spanish regulator that it has tightened its rules for banks' provisions against bad loans will help shore up confidence in Spain's banking sector over the longer-term.
 
However, in the near term is may bring forward the shake out of the banks most heavily exposed to the Spain's crumbling property market. Last weekend brought news of the failure of the small savings bank Cajasur. This bank is too small to be significant in itself but does suggest there may be more bad news over the next couple of months.
 
Coming on the back of continued concerns that Greek debt will have to be restructured sooner or later and given simmering worries over the tangible increase in sovereign default risk in Portugal, Italy and Ireland over the past year or so, respite for the Euro could prove to be short-lived.
 
I see the Euro potentially have a short-term bounce but dropping to 1.18 and probably below within the next few weeks - I'll give it a month at the most! 
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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