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Financial Page International

3 October 2009 - Global Markets Review

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
First the good news .... September broke the historic trend of negative equity returns as the Dow (+2.2%), S&P 500 (+3.5%), and Nasdaq (+5.6%) each performed quite nicely during the month.

Now the bad news...the "bears" exploded out of the gate to start October as some weaker-than-expected data renewed concerns about the strength (or lack thereof) of any economic recovery. The eternal optimists point out that investors simply may have been taking some profits following the best quarter for stocks since late 1998. During the three month period, the three primary indexes climbed about 15%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 performed even better (+18.8%).

Boardroom confidence has been one main reason for the surge in equities over the past few months and such activity remained in vogue during the week.

Abbott Labs moved forward with global expansion plans and announced its desire to purchase Belgian-based Solvay for $6.6  billion.

Xerox added to its services segment by agreeing to acquire Affiliated Computer Services for $6.4  billion. Comcast and General Electric have been in discussions regarding a partnership or even an IPO that involves GE's NBC Universal.

Latin American beverage company Femsa (Tecate, Dos Equis) also seems interested in merging its beer operations with a major player and analysts speculate about SABMiller or Heineken as potential partners in a $9  billion transaction.

Meanwhile GM is poised to shut down its Saturn brand as a prior deal with Penske blew up during the week.

Sticking with cars, the end of "cash for clunkers" apparently meant the end of booming activity on the domestic car lots as GM (-45%), Chrysler (-42%), Toyota (-16.1%), and Ford (-5.1%) all reported declining sales for September.

In financial news, Bank of America's Ken Lewis has had more than enough being the whipping boy and poster child for all that is wrong with the industry. He announced his plans to retire by the end of the year. (What's the BofA/Merrill severance package look like these days?)

The FDIC may be asking for banks to prepay certain fees to help accommodate future failures (you mean there will still be more?) as its protection reserves moved "into the red."

The Treasury announced that Invesco and TCW have raised over $1 billion (combined) in private funding and were the first firms to participate in the much-heralded Public Private Investment Program (PPIP) to buy underwater toxic assets from banks' balance sheets.

The week began on a high note for investors as the deal-making euphoria continued. However, some less than stellar reports about manufacturing, labour, and consumer confidence set off a round of profit-taking and both the Dow and S&P 500 suffered their worst day in three-months late in the week.

Oil moved up and down as traders digested economic and supply data, but $70/barrel seems to be that comfort spot for crude these days.

Fixed income once again became the safe-haven for some and naysayers emerged again to proclaim an end to the recent run-up that has seen stocks soar 50%+ since early March. (Then again, weren't they sharing the same negative sentiments at the beginning of September too?)

Just when it was starting to feel safe to venture back out to the malls, buy a new/used house, and ride the next rebound all the way to prosperity..... the week in the economy surely brought analysts and investors back down to earth (for now).

Apparently all is not totally well among the nation's manufacturers as both the Chicago Purchasing Managers index and the ISM index fell in their latest reports. While the national survey still recorded a reading above 50 (that indicates sector growth), it fell from the August report and analysts are now concerned any rebound may fizzle before its gets started.

Likewise, factory orders dropped by the largest amount in the past five months. Consumer confidence slid in September, prompting new (old) concerns among the nation's retailers, though consumer spending in August actually rose by its best percentage since October 2001 (thanks in part to "clunkers").

Shifting to labour, over 260,000 jobs were eliminated from the economy in September, bringing the total losses to 7.6 million since the recession began back in late-2007. The unemployment rate hit 9.8% (on its road to 10% and beyond) and nervous employees seemed inclined to hold off on major purchases (except those discounted cars) until their individual situations stabilize.

Those US Unemployment numbers come in worse than expected .... in fact not just worse, but missed analysts' expectations by 40% - now that's what I call a 'miss'!

"The fundamentals do not lie" is a mantra I have been chanting for weeks (if not months) now and so rather than go along the lines of repeating what I have already said - that the recession is not over and problems lay ahead all the while that unemployment continues to grow - this week I am going to focus on one country and how seemingly within the finance sector, it has not just survived the past two years of problems, but actually flourished!

That country is Singapore.

While some private banks in Switzerland have had to fish lower down the wealth charts to attract new clients, their Singapore peers can afford to stay proudly elitist.

It's not that the fabulously wealthy in Asia did not take a hit from the financial crisis, but the strong regional growth and sharp market rebound has meant that the pie is an expanding one and standards can be maintained.
 
'Clients who managed to participate in the recovery over the past six months managed to double their money by buying blue-chip stocks,' said Kwong Kin Mun, the Singapore head of private banking at DBS Bank, South- east Asia's biggest bank.

DBS and OCBC said private bank clients must have a minimum of US$1 million in assets and that has not changed.

But in Switzerland, private banks including Credit Suisse and Julius Baer recently said they were willing to look at less wealthy clients if they have the potential to multiply their assets. Switzerland's private banking industry is reeling as it adjusts to a new world where it can no longer promise clients banking secrecy.

Boris Collardi, chief executive officer of Zurich- based Julius Baer Holding AG said the bank will look at clients with 500,000 Swiss francs (S$687,000) if they have the 'potential' to multiply their assets.

But not in Singapore, it seems.

Her bank accepts clients with average assets of US$3-5 million and this has not changed despite the crisis, said Lim Li Koon, spokeswoman for Bank Julius Baer Singapore.

'For Singapore, the growth and high concentration of millionaires will present us with lots of untapped opportunities,' she added.

Julius Baer, which is building Asia as a 'second home' market, now has more than 350 staff in the region, making up more than 10 per cent of its global head count.

Opened in 2005, the Singapore office is the Swiss bank's main centre in Asia. It is the hub for marketing in Southeast Asia, a global booking centre and the product platform and backoffice for Asia.

The bank expects to hire 40-50 relationship managers (RMs) this year, with a significant number to be based in Asia.

Over at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Asia-Pacific, chief executive Serge Forti said: 'We have been even stricter in applying the US$1 million minimum.'

'The only difference now is that we are not granting exceptions,' he added.

The French-owned private bank 'has very significantly increased its number of clients since October 2008 because of the flight to quality', said Mr Forti.

Some new clients have transferred all their assets to BNPP while the bank has also acquired new clients from hiring additional private bankers, he said.

Standard Chartered, which also insists on a minimum of US$1 million from clients, says it has seen a steady flow of new clients.

Rajesh Malkani, regional head, Southeast Asia, The Standard Chartered Private Bank, said the bank is in a strong position and well positioned in dynamic growth markets.

'In this current environment, we have seen a steady inflow of new-to- bank clients, bringing in new assets under management,' said Mr Malkani.

'There is also an increase in the share of wallet from existing private banking clients,' he said.

There is no change to the bank's plan to add about 100 new private bankers globally, to beef up its current 350-strong group, he said.

Standard Chartered Private Bank managed strong growth in a tough environment with assets under management (AUM) up 10 per cent since the second half of 2008, compared to an industry decline of 16 per cent during 2008, Mr Malkani said.

DBS saw an influx of new money as clients sought to diversify away from international banks.

'We noticed a trend of clients diversifying out of American and European banks to Asian banks,' said Mr Kwong.

'We noticed new funds coming from other banks at the beginning of 2008 and reaching a peak in the last quarter of the year,' he added.

There has since been a leakage because of government guarantees on bank deposits and clients shopping for higher interest rates - which is okay, he said.

DBS pays 0.45 per cent for a 12-month fixed deposit for amounts between $1,000 and $999,999.

Being able to attract more clients does not necessarily translate into higher profits, though.

Shell-shocked clients have become extremely risk-averse, said DBS's Mr Kwong. 'Friday, we are seeing clients doing the very plain vanilla products and the fear is that these vanilla products carry very low margins,' he said.

Those who have doubled their money by just buying blue-chip stocks and bonds the last six months have little incentive to invest in exotic products which earn high margins for banks, said Mr Kwong frankly.

He said it is common for the industry to see a fall in profitability of 30-40 per cent from the record in 2007.

DBS private bank has 110 relationship managers.

So all told, Singapore has been resilient through the troubles and looks to have come out of the global recession virtually unscathed, if not benefitting remarkably well in the financial sector.

On to the numbers for the week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks ended lower on Friday after a surprise drop in factory orders and disappointing jobs data raised doubts about the strength of economic recovery.

September's non-farm payrolls report showed the loss of 263,000 jobs, taking the unemployment rate up to 9.8 per cent from 9.7 per cent in August, when a revised 201,000 jobs were lost. Economists polled by Bloomberg had been expecting the unemployment rate to rise to 9.8 per cent but had forecast a loss of only 175,000 jobs.

The S&P 500 finished 0.5 per cent lower at 1,025.21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.2 per cent at 9,487.67 and the Nasdaq fell 0.5 per cent to 2,048.11.

Over the week, the S&P has lost 1.4 per cent, following a 2.2 per cent decline the previous week. The Dow is down 1.6 per cent - its biggest weekly drop since July. The Nasdaq is also 1.6 per cent lower.

Wall Street started the week in a positive mood after a rush of merger deals lifted investor confidence. However, a series of economic indicators later in the week forced stocks to relinquish most of last month's gains.

Industrial stocks fell sharply on Friday. After growing speculation throughout the week, Jeffrey Immelt, General Electric's chief executive said the company was holding discussions on partnerships or an initial public offering for its NBC Universal unit. Further reports on Thursday suggested a deal would be struck with cable operator Comcast. General Electric shares were down 3.8 per cent to $15.36, while Comcast lost 2.7 per cent to $15.24.

Materials stocks also suffered. US Steel was down 3.6 per cent to $40.75, while Steel Dynamics fell 2.4 per cent to $14.34 . Falling oil prices hit energy stocks. Edge Petroleum added to the gloom after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

General Electric Co., the world's biggest maker of power- plant turbines, fell 3.8 percent to $15.36. Honeywell, the world's largest maker of airplane controls, lost 2.2 percent to $35.60.

After the market's close on Thursday, CIT, the lender to small and mid-sized companies, launched a debt exchange as part of a restructuring plan to avoid bankruptcy.

CIT shares rose 10.4 per cent to $1.17. The stock had fallen 45 per cent on Wednesday after rumours of the plan first emerged.

Technology stocks helped to mitigate some of the market's losses.

UBS upgraded Apple to "buy" from "neutral", citing higher expectations for iPhone sales. Shares in Apple rose 2.2 per cent to $184.90.

Intel, the world's largest maker of semiconductors, also benefited from an upgrade. Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to "outperform" due to expected growth in personal computer sales. The shares were up 0.4 per cent at $18.97.

Walmart said its operations in Asia had shown slight improvement. The world's biggest retailer also said it saw a slow recovery from challenging US business conditions. Walmart closed 0.2 per cent higher at $49.08.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks begun the fourth quarter on a sour note, recording three straight days of losses on the heels of the best quarterly gain in almost a decade.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 declined 2.1 per cent over the week to 963.56, its lowest level since 7 September.

European banks' ongoing efforts to raise capital will bolster indices over the next few weeks, Nomura said, noting that markets had in general responded positively to the cash calls.

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 1.9 percent to 234.1, the lowest close in four weeks. The gauge extended its second straight weekly drop to 2 percent.

GERMANY

German stocks dropped for a fourth consecutive day, with the DAX Index extending its weekly drop, after US reports showed the US jobless rate rose to a 26- year high and factory unexpectedly fell.

Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG, Germany's largest banks, led declines as the European Union said bank losses could reach 400 billion Euros ($581 billion). Infineon Technologies AG and Siemens AG slid more than 2 percent.

The DAX sank 1.6 percent to 5,467.90, for the longest stretch of daily losses in a month. The benchmark measure dropped 2 percent this week after a six-month rally left it valued at about 45 times its companies' reported earnings as of Sept. 25, near the highest level since December 2003, according to weekly data. The broader HDAX Index lost 1.7 percent Friday.

Commerzbank, Germany's second-biggest bank, sank 9 percent to 7.64 Euros, leading declines among European lenders. Larger competitor Deutsche Bank fell 2.3 percent to 49.82 Euros.

A stress test of the European Union's biggest banks showed they could withstand an even deeper recession, though with losses, a report to EU finance chiefs showed.

Deutsche Postbank AG, which is part-owned by Deutsche Bank, lost 3.8 percent to 22.65 Euros. Chief Executive Officer Stefan Juette said it is uncertain whether the company will reach breakeven in the third quarter.

Infineon, Europe's second-largest maker of semiconductors, slumped 3.5 percent to 3.63 Euros. Sal. Oppenheim Jr. & Cie. KGaA cut its recommendation to "reduce" from "neutral" on the stock.

Separately, Volterra Semiconductor Corp. said a US District Court granted the company a preliminary injunction against Infineon, Infineon Technologies North America Corp. and Primarion Inc. in a patent infringement lawsuit.

Siemens, Europe's largest engineering company, declined 2.2 percent to 60.20 Euros. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, the region's second-biggest airline, dropped 1.8 percent to 11.53 Euros. Metro AG, Germany's largest retailer, retreated 3 percent to 36.50 Euros.

Arcandor dropped 6.7 percent to 22.4 cents. Friedrich Carl Janssen, chairman of the supervisory board of the retailer, has resigned, the Financial Times Deutschland reported, citing a letter written by Janssen to the supervisory board.

Pfleiderer lost 6.9 percent to 7.47 Euros, the lowest close in almost three weeks. Berenberg Bank downgraded the maker of laminate flooring to "hold" from "buy."

Q-Cells SE and Solarworld fell 3 percent to 12.15 Euros and 3.9 percent to 15.17 Euros, respectively. Renewable Energy Corp. ASA, a Norwegian maker of solar energy products, said contract adjustments for wafers will have an adverse effect on earnings next year.

Sky Deutschland dropped 5 percent to 3.26 Euros, closing at the lowest level since August. UBS AG downgraded Germany's biggest pay-television company to "neutral" from "buy."

Stada Arzneimittel decreased 3.4 percent to 17.96 Euros, a third decline this week. "We are still cautious on longer term pricing" for generic drugs and "sell Stada's recent strength," Credit Suisse wrote in a report on German health-care Friday. Stada is still up 6.3 percent this week.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index declined 70.87, or 1.9 percent, to 3,649.90 in Paris. The measure dropped 2.4 percent this week. The SBF 120 Index retreated 2 percent to 2,669.58.

BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, declined 3.3 percent to 50.77 Euros while Credit Agricole SA (ACA FP) dropped 1.9 percent to 13.61 Euros.

A stress test of the European Union's biggest banks showed they could withstand an even deeper recession, though with almost 400 billion Euros ($581 billion) in losses, a report to EU finance chiefs showed.

Electricite de France dropped 92.5 cents, or 2.3 percent, to 38.72 Euros. Europe's biggest generator said it is examining options regarding its UK distribution unit, citing a target to reduce debt.

PSA Peugeot Citroen slipped 70.5 cents, or 3.5 percent, to 19.67 Euros, extending the weekly decline to 6.5 percent. Europe's second-largest carmaker's director of brands Jean-Marc Gales told Radio Classique that the company had a 30 percent decline in German sales in September.

STMicroelectronics, Europe's largest semiconductor maker, fell 20.1 cents, or 3.2 percent, to 6.13 Euros, extending Thursday's 1.7 percent drop. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 4.8 percent Thursday, the steepest decline in almost five months.

Total declined 61 cents, or 1.5 percent, to 39.32 Euros, a fourth straight decline. Europe's third-largest oil company retreated as crude oil for November delivery dropped as much as 3.5 percent to $69.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Veolia Environnement sank 1.38 Euros, or 5.3 percent, to 24.45 Euros as Arnaud Joan, a Paris-based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets, lowered his 2009 earnings outlook for the world's biggest water utility.

BELGIUM

The Bel 20 in Brussels closed the week at 2,415.96, a decline of 1.44% for the day.

The Belgian government has decided to take part in the capital enhancement initiative launched by the French bank BNP Paribas.

Since the Fortis debacle Belgium is BNP Paribas's second largest shareholder.
 
The operation should not burden the Belgian budget because as a shareholder Belgium has the right to purchase new shares at a reduced rate.

On Tuesday BNP Paribas announced it was creating Eur 4.3 billion worth of new shares. The bank hopes to use the money to repay the French state for public support it gave the bank at the time of the banking crisis.

When Fortis Bank collapsed it was sold to BNP Paribas. In return for its stake in the Belgian bank, BNP Paribas paid Belgium in its own shares.

Belgium could become the bank's biggest shareholder as a result of the operation to repay the French state.

The Belgian government has decided to take part in the capital enhancement to ensure its stake in the French bank is not diluted.

The opposition Flemish Socialist Party is not impressed by the move, accusing the federal administration of acting like an investors' club.

Meanwhile it has emerged that Emiel Van Broeckhoven will sit on the BNP Paribas board as Belgium's second representative. Prof Van Broeckhoven is a lecturer in applied economic sciences at Antwerp University.

Belgian-based financial group KBC said it would continue doing business in Central and Eastern Europe but it might sell a part of its non-core assets in Bulgaria and Romania.

KBC announced its plans in a restructuring plan submitted this week to the European Commission, Belgian press reported.

The plan stated; "The bank considers giving up the non-strategic actives it holds in Romania and Bulgaria. We already put out for sale the shares we have with the Slovakian bank NBL, but we could not find any buyer"

Belgian pharmaceutical group UCB raised 450 million Euros ($659.9 million) from a six-year convertible bond offer on Wednesday to refinance debt, a figure that could rise to 500 million Euros.

The initial conversion price will be 38.746 Euros per share, a premium of 35 percent to the volume-weighted average price of UCB's shares from launch to pricing, UCB said.

THE NETHERLANDS

The Aex in Amsterdam finished Friday's session on 299.30, a sharp drop of 2.11% for Friday.

Dutch cable manufacturer Draka Holding NV said on Thursday it will issue 100 million Euros of shares, representing 20 percent of the company's issued share capital, in order to restructure and improve its finances.

Half of the offering of 8.12 million new shares has been taken up by Flint Beheers, one of Draka's largest shareholders. The rest is scheduled for an accelerated bookbuild offering starting on Friday, Draka said in a statement.

Draka is Europe's third-largest cable maker with operations in 30 countries in Europe, America and Asia.

Of the total proceeds, 75 million Euros will be used to "strengthen the company's financial position" Draka said, while the rest will be used for restructuring measures.

Additionally, Draka also secured a standby arrangement with ING Commercial Finance to sell up to 50 million Euros of its accounts receivables if necessary, within the next two years.

Late news Friday of a criminal investigation of a Tomtom employee for insider trading.

The investigation by Dutch public prosecutors, the financial services regulator AFM and tax authorities is focussed on a single employee and TomTom's Amsterdam offices were searched Thursday.

The seniority of the employee has not been disclosed although TomTom have stated it is not a board member and there was no evidence to support the claim that the employee had any 'insider information'.

TomTom is understood to be fully cooperating with the investigation.

Moody's Investors Service has Friday downgraded the rating of the Eur2 billion 8.75% Mandatory Convertible Securities (MCS) to B2 from Ba2. The rating has been placed on review for possiblefurther downgrade. The MCS were issued by Fortis Bank (Nederland) N.V.(FBN), Fortis SA/NV, Fortis N.V., and Fortis Bank SA/NV, but the coupons are served by FBN only.

The MCS, which are non-cumulative securities and include fully optional deferral features, will convert into a fixed number of shares in 2010.

The rating action on the MCS reflects the increasing potential for coupon deferrals in light of the ongoing discussion between the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the European Commission (EC) on the state aid packagesgranted to Dutch banks.

Friday's rating action also reflects the concernscited in Moody's press release entitled "Moody's sees broader impact on hybrid ratings triggered by EC's state aid reviews," published on 19 August 2009.

The Dutch state took over FBN (rated C-/A1/positive outlook/ Prime-1) on 3 October 2008. Moody's notes that the Netherlands has not injected anycapital into FBN, but the takeover may be considered by the EC as a form of support.

Furthermore, given the EC's scrutiny of coupons of hybrid securities and dividends being paid out of profits, Moody's believes that there is an increased risk that FBN may be advised to skip optional coupons on the MCS.

SWITZERLAND

Zurich's SMI closed out the week at 6,150.17, a decline of 1.68% for the session.

Credit Suisse's solid performance during the financial crisis has left it in a position of capital strength that could allow it to make acquisitions and return capital to shareholders.

Chief Executive Brady Dougan told a Bank of America Merrill Lynch banking conference in London on Thursday its relatively strong position could allow it to make 'material dividend payments'.

He also said he saw opportunities for 'tactical' acquisitions and the Swiss bank had the capital for buys.

'We have good bandwidth to handle the integration of some of these businesses so we will look at that opportunistically,' he said, adding the bank would be 'prudent and careful'.

Asked if the bank might be interested in UBS's US wealth management operations, Dougan said he was not interested in private banking buys outside Switzerland, including the United States, although he did want to grow more in the US market.

Speculation has been rife about UBS's plans for its US wealth management unit Paine Webber and was stoked again on Tuesday after chief executive Oswald Gruebel was quoted as saying in the FT it is not a core part of the bank's operations.

However, Gruebel told staff in an internal memo obtained by Reuters on Thursday that the board was committed to the business and it was not for sale.

'We have had offers, but we have not taken any of them seriously,' he said.

UBS bought US brokerage Paine Webber in 2000 for about $10 billion and merged it into UBS Americas, its U.S wealth management subsidiary, but the financial crisis and a damaging US tax fraud probe has forced it to pare back the business.

Credit Suisse, which has overtaken UBS as Switzerland's largest bank in terms of market capitalisation, was able decline government aid in the crisis and has one of the strongest capital ratios in the industry.

'We believe that thanks to our strong platform... we can outgrow the market across all regions,' Dougan said, in a webcast of the presentation in London. 'We feel pretty good about where we are, stacking up against the competition.'

He said the bank's once struggling asset management business had the potential to make a significant contribution to earnings over time, now it was restored to profitability.

He added about a third of the bumper first-half revenues the investment bank business recorded as markets rebounded were at risk of a slowdown if the environment returned to normal.

Credit Suisse was well positioned amid tightening international bank regulation in the wake of the crisis as it has already adjusted its strategy as Switzerland had moved early to introduce stricter rules, Dougan said.

Top Swiss managers and executives have felt the pinch of the economic crisis on their pay packages, which have fallen by around one quarter, a study says.

Debate has been raging in Switzerland about executive salaries, which despite the drop remain high. Nevertheless, the survey rejected caps on compensation packages as counterproductive.

The third survey of Executive Compensation and Corporate Governance by consultants PricewaterhouseCoopers of Switzerland was based on figures from 2008 and released in Zurich on Wednesday.

It said that the average chief executive compensation for the 20 companies on the Swiss Market Index (SMI) of blue chips dropped by about 25 per cent to SFr6.9 million ($6.7 million).

It noted that the reduction was caused by a decline in variable compensation. For example, in SMI companies bonuses dropped by 50 per cent.

The average total payout for board chairmen or women of SMI companies also dropped by 29.6 per cent to SFr844,723.

In addition, as a consequence of plummeting share prices, some members of boards of directors and executive boards have suffered "significant losses" in wealth on their company shares.

Despite that, some managers are still pocketing very generous financial rewards. It was recently reported that Novartis CEO Daniel Vasella had taken home a salary plus benefits totalling SFr40.3 million last year.

The study notes that with the advent of the financial crisis, the political debate on compensation of top executives has become increasingly heated.

But it states that compensation can hardly be blamed as the main cause of the economic crisis.

The study also puts the blame on other factors such as high expectations of shareholders, corporate cultures encouraging excessive risk taking and inadequate regulatory frameworks.

While the main target of public criticism is the amount of compensation for top executives, it is only one part of the equation, the study finds.

"More important than that, however, is the structure and the combination of the different elements in total compensation," the survey says.

These include equity programmes, bonuses, base salary, pensions and social security, as well as fringe benefits.

AUSTRIA

In Vienna, the ATX finished the day at 2,486.61, huge declines of 3.56% for the session.

Erste Group Bank AG, Austria's biggest publicly traded bank, is weighing a share sale to raise more than 1 billion Euros ($1.45 billion), four people familiar with the matter said. The stock fell 6.4 percent in Vienna.

Erste is discussing a possible offering with at least four investment banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., which arranged stock sales for the company in the past, said the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are private.

Vienna-based Erste received 1.2 billion Euros in state funds during the global financial crisis and it's slated to get 1 billion Euros in hybrid capital from the government before the end of the year. The bank, which recorded a drop in profit as economic growth in eastern Europe sputtered, has also raised 540 million Euros from investors.

Erste fell the most since June 22, declining 1.94 Euros, or 6.4 percent, to 28.60 Euros. Erste has risen 77 percent this year as markets rebounded. The shares are still down 18 percent from a year ago and 47 percent from two years ago.

Constantia Packaging BV said on Thursday it had offered Immoeast over 360 million Euros ($524.5 million) to settle a financial claim the Austrian real estate developer has against it.

Debtor Constantia said in a statement it had offered Immoeast a settlement of 164 million Euros in cash and over 200 million Euros in assets over a controversial bond. It did not specify the assets.

Immoeast, the emerging European arm of Immofinanz, has been struggling to cope with writedowns on Eastern European assets. Its shares fell on the news to trade down 3 percent at 4.10 Euros.

The controversial bond goes back to just before the financial crisis when Immoeast, Immofinanz and closely-held Austrian bank Constantia Privatbank were headed by the same Chief Executive and linked in a complex web of shareholdings and management contracts.

Immoeast has previously said that the 520 million Euro bond was guaranteed by Constantia BV, a Dutch vehicle that used to own Constantia Privatbank.

Since then, joint CEO Karl Petrikovics has resigned, the bank had to be taken over by Austria's five biggest banks in a government-orchestrated bailout last year, and prosecutors are investigating several players.

SWEDEN

Stockholm's OMX ended the day and the week on 867.84, a drop of 1.2% for the day.

Never before have so many in one single case been charged for so many crimes in the history of Swedish financial market. The case starting Friday will also maybe be a win-or-die situation for the Swedish National Economic Crimes Bureau. 'The Cevian man', 'the Nordea man', 'the Luxembourg man', 'the poker pro', 'the Carnegie man' and 'the Morgan Stanley man'. These are the alias used by Swedish media about the suspects in the largest case of insider trading ever taken to a Swedish court. A group of financial analysts, investment bankers and stockbrokers with friends brought into trial at the Stockholm District Court Friday.

"What makes this case so special is the large amount of crimes. It's unique that a number of people agree to systematically commit insider trading and by that way create a fortune for themselves", says prosecutor Yngve Rydberg.

He describes a common case of insider trading: a director of the board notice that his own company is on its way to disaster and then sells his shares.

"But in this case 'the Cevian man' transfer information about the companies where he has insight, he does not trade himself, but in other companies he has no connection to", says Yngve Rydberg.

It is also unique for the police to through telephone surveillance get hold on SEK 3.5 million in cash. The confiscation was made in April 2007, at the same time there where discussion about closing the Swedish National Economic Crimes Bureau.

"There is no correlation. We know from the telephone surveillance that SEK 5 million was on its way from Switzerland to Sweden", Yngve Rydberg says to daily Dagens Nyheter.

The criminal charge covers insider trading in a number of companies, among else biotech company Biacore, retailer Lindex and telecom provider TeliaSonera. Two of the suspects is also charged for felony tax crimes.

"The prosecutor gives you the impression that all these people have made gigantic, fortunate, deals. But that's not the whole picture. If all deals are taken into account it shows that the profit is closer to normal", says Hans Strandberg, lawyer to one of the suspects.

All suspects claim to be innocent. The case is expected to go on until January next year.

Already from the start in 1998 the Swedish National Economic Crimes Bureau was controversial. When the Social Democratic government of the time decided that this agency should be created did some public debtors' questioned why there should be a special agency for this type of crime when all other forms of criminal activity is handled by the police.

Politicians' of the then centre-right political opposition thought the bureau, who is subordinated the Government Office and both a prosecutor office and a police authority, resulted in a splintered organisational structure who caused administrational problems and imprecise controlling.

Things did not become easier when there was severe problems to get the bureau running, because of problems with appointing a director and to recruit personal.

Now and then the bureau is questioned over what is an said to be a poor result. After having lost a number of high profiled cases the government two years ago openly spoke about abolishing the bureau. Then came this case.

Thus this is a win-or-die situation for the Swedish National Economic Crimes Bureau. Without any convictions in this case will it be hard for the government not to pull the plug.

Tandberg ASA's shares soared Thursday after the Norwegian video conferencing company said Cisco Systems has agreed to buy all of its shares for almost $3 billion in cash.

Cisco is offering NOK153.50 a share, valuing Tandberg's total share capital at NOK17.2 billion ($2.97 billion), and Tandberg said its board is unanimously supporting the deal.

"We believe that Cisco, with its breadth of expertise and proven track record of integrating acquisitions will be a strong owner of Tandberg's business," Tandberg Chief Executive Fredrik Halvorsen said in a statement. "Cisco's ownership will strengthen Tandberg's position to serve our customers and partners with even greater innovation, and to expand opportunities for our employees."

Tandberg, which reported revenue of $809 million in 2008, makes a range of video-conferencing products, including high-end systems that compete with Cisco's own products, and software.

SAS, the Scandinavian airline based in Stockholm, said Thursday that it had sold its 20 percent stake in British Midland, or BMI, to Lufthansa and an affiliate for 38 million Pounds ($61 million) up front, while additional payments may follow.

Lufthansa, the German airline, can now decide alone what it will do with the struggling British carrier, while SAS said it wanted to concentrate on what it considers its home markets in the Nordic region.

"These are the markets we know best, and where we have the best position," Vice President Sture Stolen of SAS said in an interview.

"It doesn't make sense for us to hold minority stakes in airlines all over Europe," he said, adding that "we have stakes in Spanair and Air Baltic, and we plan to exit those, too."

Lufthansa's affiliate will pay 19 million Pounds for shares that SAS holds in BMI, the second-largest carrier at Heathrow after British Airways, and the German airline will pay an additional 19 million Pounds for other rights held by SAS.

The Swedish airline could also receive more over the next two years, depending on BMI's profitability.

SAS first bought into BMI in 1989 and will continue to collabourate with it through the Star Alliance, a group of international airlines.

LHBD Holding, a British company one-third owned by Lufthansa, has held 80 percent of BMI shares since the start of July and will receive the remaining 20 percent once the transaction is completed. The deal is to be wrapped up Nov. 1, Lufthansa said.

Mr. Stolen said the move "gives Lufthansa much more freedom to do whatever they want to do."

FINLAND

The OMX in Helsinki closed Friday's session at 6,095.93, the decline of 2.55% being the worst performing market in Scandinavia.

Loss-making Finnish electronics firm Elcoteq said on Friday India's Videocon Industries Ltd would buy an equity stake in it, two days after it said plans for a similar deal with China's Kaifa collapsed.

Shares in the firm, which sank on Wednesday when the Kaifa cancellation was announced, were 26 percent higher at 1.36 Euros at one point Friday.

"(The size) is more or less the same as the previous announcement - 50 million Euros ($72.7 million)," Elcoteq Chief Financial Officer Mikko Puolakka told Reuters.

Elcoteq said it aimed end negotiations as soon as possible and close the deal by the end of the year.

But as with the proposed Kaifa investment, Elcoteq declined to say what stake founders Antti Piippo, Jorma Vanhanen and Henry Sjoman would keep should the Videocon deal be finalised. Due to two share series with different weightings the founders control majority of the votes.

"Our market cap is around 30-40 million Euros, so the investment must entail certain control over the company," Puolakka said.

Stora Enso has successfully issued a Eur 390 million seven-year bond under its EMTN (Euro Medium Term Note) programme. The seven-year maturity of the bond will lengthen Stora Enso's average debt maturity profile. The bond pays a floating coupon of Euribor +4.21% and there are no financial covenants. Sole Lead Manager for the deal was SEK Securities. 

"We decided to take advantage of improved market conditions and issued a bond at attractive levels to refinance our short-term maturities and enhance our maturity profile. The Group has a strong liquidity situation and many alternative sources of financing are available. We continue to manage our maturity profile proactively," says Jyrki Tammivuori, SVP Group Treasurer.

Stora Enso has a revolving credit facility of Eur 1.4 billion maturing in May 2012 fully undrawn and without any financial covenants.

Nokia declined 8.2 per cent to €9.51 on concerns that the iPhone's expanding network would eat into the the carrier's smartphone market share.

Nokia has bought Dopplr, a company that provides a social network for international travelers who want to meet up as their journeys cross paths.

The Finnish handset company announced the purchase of the privately held firm, which employs seven people in London and Helsinki offices, on Monday. The amount of money involved in the transaction has not been disclosed.

"Friday, we're thrilled to announce that Dopplr has been acquired by Nokia," Dopplr chief executive Marko Ahtisaari wrote in a blog post on Monday.

According to Ahtisaari, who used to work for Nokia as director of design strategy, the handset maker "shares [Dopplr's] vision of the Social Atlas, the idea that social location data can improve our experience of cities".

Over the past year or two, Nokia has been making a concerted push into the online services market, largely through acquisitions and the development of its Ovi applications platform. The Dopplr buy marks Nokia's first major acquisition since July, when it picked up the German contact aggregation and internet telephony firm Cellity.

The Dopplr team will be incorporated into Nokia's Services unit, where it will provide "know-how in creating internet-based communities and showing their journeys, experiences and tastes collectively on the web", Nokia said in a statement.

DENMARK

Like Sweden, Copenhagen's OMX ended the day at 325.49, down 1.92%.

Shares in Danish brewer Carlsberg fell sharply on Tuesday after media reports that the Russian government would propose a ban on beer sales at supermarkets and kiosks, market analysts said.

Earlier this month Russian President Dmitry Medvedvev told officials to find ways to curb alcohol abuse, including possible bans on the sale of alcohol in specific locations at certain times of the day.

Carlsberg shares were hit last Thursday after the Russian government proposed to triple excise tax by 2012.

On Tuesday, Carlsberg shares dropped as much as 4.6 percent to 359.75 crowns but pared losses to 3.4 percent at 364.25 crowns by 1435 GMT, underperforming a flat Copenhagen bourse's bluechip index.

A Carlsberg spokesman declined to comment on media reports that the Russian government would propose to ban sales of beer at supermarkets and kiosks.

'We only know about this from newspapers, so I have no comment on it,' Carlsberg spokesman Jens Peter Skaarup said.

Russia is a major market for Carlsberg, the world's fourth biggest brewer.

Nordea decreased the share price target on Danish real estate developer TK Development A/S to DKK 48 from DKK 67, but maintained the "buy" rating on the stock. 

Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk A/S said Wednesday its drug Victoza has been shown in a clinical study to be more efficient than a competing drug in improving diabetes patients' blood sugar control.

Data from the extension phase of the LEAD 6 study indicated that patients who switched to Victoza from Eli Lilly & Co.'s and Amylin.

NORWAY

The OBX in Oslo closed out the week at 281.68, a daily drop of 2.41%.

Norway's financial market watchdog lifted a ban on short-selling banking and insurance shares on Monday, as calmer market conditions ended the need for trading restrictions to prevent damaging volatility in financial stocks.

Several European countries such as Belgium and Austria have recently extended short-selling curbs, but Norway's Financial Supervisory Authority said it would no longer consider short selling of shares in financial institutions a breach of securities law.

"The market situation has changed and is now of such a nature that trading short in the shares ... in question is no longer considered on a general basis to contravene with the Securities Trading Act," the regulator said in a statement.

Many countries introduced measures last autumn to restrain or even ban short selling after the collapse of Lehman Brothers sparked heavy selling in financial shares. Britain in January ended its blanket ban on short-selling financials but required investors to disclose short positions.

The financial watchdog said on Oct. 8 last year it would prohibit short selling in financial shares on a temporary basis due to the financial market turmoil.

The ban had applied to shares in DnB NOR and Storebrand as well as shares and primary capital certificates in a number of smaller savings banks and insurance companies.

Norwegian Property ASA, the biggest owner of commercial real estate in Oslo's main financial district, plans to cut debt and may sell assets to ride out falling rents.

"We're no longer seeking to be such a highly geared company," Chief Financial Officer Mari Thjomoe said in an interview at her company's headquarters in Oslo. "At some point we will reach that lower debt level and will hopefully be even more attractive to investors."

Norwegian Property aims to reduce the loan-to-value ratio, or money borrowed as a proportion of fair market value, to between 60 percent and 65 percent from 76 percent. The investor in office buildings and hotels had total debt of 20.3 billion kroner ($3.5 billion) as of June 30.

The company was created in 2006 with the goal of becoming the Nordic region's largest publicly traded real-estate investor. Norwegian Property reported net losses for the past six quarters and scrapped a plan last year to sell Norgani Hotels ASA after an 11.1 billion-kroner bid from unidentified investors lapsed.

Norwegian Property owns 48 office buildings in its home country, as well as Norgani's 74 hotels across Scandinavia. The company's combined assets were valued at 24.7 billion kroner at the end of June.

"There can be good reasons for changing your portfolio by either buying or selling," Thjomoe, 46, said in the interview on Sept. 24. "We would always be open to good suggestions." The main focus will be to develop and improve the value of the company's real estate, she said.

This year, Norwegian Property has sold two buildings for a total of as much as 3 billion kroner, Thjomoe said. In 2008, the company divested eight properties.

"Obviously the value of the hotel and office properties has fallen," the CFO said. "It's more challenging to sell off portfolios right now than it would have been two years ago."

Until the market improves, Norwegian Property will try to trim debt by other means. The company didn't pay a dividend for 2008 and, under an agreement with its lenders, money distributed to shareholders in the years ahead will depend on a recovery in real-estate values.

Norwegian Property has already reduced debt by raising 1.5 billion kroner from share sales this year.

"The current gearing level is much more comfortable than it used to be," Thjomoe said. "That will protect the company from doing something that could look like a forced sale."

The business owns nine buildings in Oslo's Aker Brygge financial district with combined space of 89,428 square meters (963,000 square feet). Tenants include DnB NOR ASA, Norway's largest bank, and Det Norske Oljeselskap ASA.

Rents for the best offices in Oslo fell by 10 percent during the second quarter from the first and will probably drop 15 percent more by the end of the year, CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. said. Vacancy rates rose to 6.5 percent in the quarter and are expected to reach 8 percent by year-end, according to Los Angeles-based CBRE, the world's largest property broker.

"It's a slow market and it takes time to change," the CFO said. "We are also very dependent on the normalization of banking and financing markets."

Norwegian Property's biggest shareholders include Canica AS with 5.16 percent and AWhilhelmsen Capital with 5.13 percent. Amsterdam-based ING Groep NV controlled through its units 5.57 percent of the company's shares as of Sept. 24.

"We've seen that the number of international shareholders has fallen a lot, particularly in the past year," Thjomoe said. "This is something we regret."

Norwegian Property appointed Olav Line as chief executive officer on Sept. 21, replacing Petter Jansen, who will leave the company on Oct. 1. It didn't say when Line, 51, will take up his new position. Thjomoe will act as CEO in the interim.

Before joining Norwegian Property, Thjomoe held management positions at Norwegian insurer KLP and StatoilHydro ASA, Norway's biggest oil and natural-gas producer.

SPAIN

Madrid's IBEX finished Friday on 11,326.70, down 1.66% for the day.

Repsol, Spain's largest oil producer, lost 1.2 percent to 18 Euros as crude for November delivery dropped as much as 3.5 percent to $68.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Spanish government will offer airlines 600 million Euros ($875 million) of credit through the Official Credit Institute (ICO), Public Works Minister Jose Blanco said on Thursday.

"We're going to open a 600 million Euro credit line through ICO for the airlines," Blanco said at a lunch.

The measure would expand credit lines already available to the airlines, which are posting losses following surging oil prices last year and falling demand for travel due to the economic crisis.

The worst of the Great Recession may be over, but much of the world isn't out of the woods just yet. That's particularly true for Spain, where unemployment borders on 20% and the country's gross domestic product is expected to contract 3.2% in 2009 after years of record growth.

Yet despite that dire domestic outlook, some of Spain's largest companies continue to grow. Take Mapfre, the country's biggest insurance company, with annual sales of $26 billion and operations in 45 countries, including the US Over the first half of 2009 the Madrid outfit boosted revenues to $14.6 billion, up 12.9% from the same period last year. No wonder, then, that Mapfre is the highest-ranking finance firm in A.T. Kearney's 2009 league table of global champions.

So how has Mapfre succeeded when others in the financial services industry have floundered? There are a couple of reasons. In recent years, the insurer, which specializes in nonlife products such as home and auto insurance, has aggressively expanded into new international markets, like Turkey and the US, while investing millions to shore up its 25-year presence across Latin America. The global push has been coupled with cost-cutting moves at home to offset lackluster growth in the Spanish market, which still represents 66% of the insurer's profits. "The recession has hit Mapfre like everyone else, but its international size and shrewd business approach have offset many of the problems," says Joao Pena, A.T. Kearney's managing partner for Spain and Portugal. "Right now, the company's strategy is looking very attractive."

Mapfre first entered Latin America in the mid-1980s, but its emphasis has shifted to the non-Spanish speaking world. In March 2007, the company bought an 80% stake in Turkish insurer Genel Sigorta for $375 million. Months later, Mapfre forked out $2.2 billion for Webster (Mass.)-based Commerce Group, which helped ramp up the company's previously negligible US presence. Analysts expect Mapfre to use its growing footprint in the Northeast US to expand into other states. "The international markets where we're present have much more growth potential than our Spanish business," says Alberto Manzano, Mapfre's vice-president.

The global push has come at just the right time. While Mapfre's first-half profits from its sluggish Spanish operations fell 10.3% annually, to $538 million, the international business's profits jumped 32.6%, to $273 million. The insurer's share price has more than doubled since global stock markets hit their lows in early spring, and has jumped 18.5% since the beginning of the year.

PORTUGAL

The PSI General in Lisbon ended the week at 2,854.52, declines of 1.51% for the session Friday.

A solution for La Seda de Barcelona's financial problems seems within grasp. Citing sources in the know, the Spanish daily "Expansion" reports that the PET group reached an agreement with the creditor banks on how to redistribute its debt of nearly Eur 870m.

Spanish media reports indicate that the group is in "advanced negotiations" with BA Vidro, which wants to acquire a relevant proportion of La Seda's shares. The move is supposed to be coupled with La Seda´s efforts to push through a capital increase of Eur 150m.

Portugal's investment fund Ongoing Strategy Investments SGPS SA said Tuesday it has launched a full takeover bid on Grupo Media Capital SGPS SA in order to comply with the country's takeover legislation.

Under the Portuguese law, a company holding over one-third of another company's voting rights will be forced to launch a full takeover bid.

In an earlier filing to the Portuguese stock market regulator, the fund said Tuesday it had bought some 25 million shares, or a 29.69% stake, in Media Capital.

As part of the agreement, which is still pending approval by the antitrust authority and by Prisa's financing entities, Ongoing has a buy option on an additional 5.31% stake, or close to 4.49 million shares, in Media Capital.

Under its takeover bid, Ongoing is offering Eur4.26 for each Media Capital share, which is the Media Capital's weighted average price over the past six months and is above the Eur4.14 a share it paid for its Media Capital stake.

Media Capital is the Portuguese unit of Spanish media group Promotora de Informaciones SA (PRS.MC) and operates Portuguese TV station TVI and radio stations, among other interests.

Prisa's investment vehicle Vertix, which holds 94.69% of Media Capital's voting rights, will not accept the offer, Ongoing said.

Ongoing's financial adviser is Banco Espirito Santo.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index fell for a third day, losing 400.57, or 1.7 percent, to 22,652.94 in Milan. The gauge dropped 1.9 percent this week.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena declined for a second day, falling 2.7 cents, or 1.9 percent, to 1.4 Euros. Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi said Thursday that banks should continue to strengthen their capital. "The regulators moral suasion to hoard more capital should put pressure on those banks whose regulatory capital ratios are regarded as not sufficient without the government support," Mediobanca Securities said in a note.

Banca Popolare di Milano Scrl fell 14.25 cents, or 2.8 percent, to 4.96 Euros. Banco Popolare SC (BP IM) dropped for a third day, losing 15 cents, or 2.4 percent, to 6.21 Euros.

Fiat lost 39 cents, or 4.1 percent, to 9.09 Euros. The shares gained 7.8 percent Thursday as Morgan Stanley more than doubled its price estimate on the Italian carmaker. MF Global reiterated a "sell" rating on the stock and a "cautious" stance on the automobile sectors because of "concerns about the strength of underlying demand post incentives and importantly the speed of recovery."

Exor, Fiat's largest shareholder, fell 28 cents, or 2.2 percent, to 12.67 Euros.

Intesa Sanpaolo declined 6.25 cents, or 2.1 percent, to 2.9 Euros. Banks retreated in Europe after a stress test of the European Union's biggest banks showed they could withstand an even deeper recession, though with losses.

UniCredit dropped 5.75 cents, or 2.2 percent, to 2.54 Euros. Unione di Banche Italiane SCPA (UBI IM) slid 22 cents, or 2.1 percent, to 10.11 Euros.

Piaggio & C. gained 3.2 cents, or 2.2 percent, to 1.52 Euros, ending a three-day loss. Europe's largest motor- scooter "is improving its market share mainly due to its leadership position in the scooter," Deutsche Bank AG said in a note. The brokerage, which kept a "hold" rating on the stock, also said that "Piaggio's performance, largely impacted by de- stocking in the first half of 2009 should show some improvements in the second half."

Prysmian fell 35 cents, or 2.8 percent, to 12.4 Euros, a fourth consecutive loss. Copper fell in London for a fifth week, the longest losing streak in more than a year, as the Dollar strengthened and rising inventories spurred concern that demand might be waning.

Risanamento rose 0.55 cents, or 1.2 percent, to 45.75 cents. Creditor banks are ready to grant it 70 million Euros ($102 million,) to cover a possible delay in a tax reimbursement the Italian real-estate company expected to receive in 2010, Il Messaggero reported.

STMicroelectronics, Europe's largest semiconductor maker, fell 19 cents, or 3 percent, to 6.13 Euros, extending losses of 2.5 percent Thursday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index retreated for a second day, after falling 4.8 percent Thursday, the steepest decline in almost five months.

Global semiconductor sales fell 16.1 percent to $19.1 billion in August from a year earlier, the Semiconductor Industry Association said Friday. Sales increased 5 percent from the previous month.

Tenaris, the world's biggest maker of seamless steel tubes for pipelines, dropped for a fourth day, losing 40 cents, or 3.4 percent, to 11.48 Euros. Crude fell in New York, paring this week's gain, on signs the US economy is still in the midst of a recession, limiting fuel demand in the world's biggest energy consumer.

Saipem, Europe's largest oil-field services contractor by market value, retreated 52 cents, or 2.6 percent, to 19.76 Euros.

Tod's increased 1.02 Euros, or 2.2 percent, to 47.89 Euros, the highest since January 2008. UBS AG upgraded the Italian luxury- goods maker known for its rubber-studded driving shoe to "buy" from "neutral."

GREECE

The Athex in Athens finished another volatile week at 2,593.43, a dip of 2.06% for Friday.

Greeks vote in a national election on Sunday with the opposition socialists leading in polls but not guaranteed to gather enough support to form a government outright.

With no clear winner, Greece could be plunged into weeks of political limbo at a time of economic crisis.

Here are scenarios of how the situation could develop and the political and financial risks at stake:

ONE PARTY WINS OUTRIGHT

Polls show the socialist PASOK party has gained support since the vote was announced on Sept. 2, bringing it closer to gaining an outright majority. In the last polls published on Sept. 18, it was seen leading by about 6 percentage points.

However pollsters stress it is hard to predict how votes translate in seats because of Greece's complex electoral system and say PASOK would need well above 40 percent of the vote to gain a comfortable parliamentary majority.

NO CLEAR WINNER

This scenario is still possible if PASOK does not gain enough ground. It would mean a repeat election or, much less likely, a coalition government could be formed.

Analysts say an inconclusive vote would increase uncertainty in debt-ridden Greece, which narrowly escaped recession this summer and needs a strong government to tackle long-delayed reforms.

Greek shares fell after the election was announced on fears there would be no clear election winner. For the same reason, premium investors' demand for 10-year Greek bonds rather than benchmark German Bunds rose to a six-week high at the time.

ANOTHER ELECTION

This is the most likely outcome if PASOK wins but cannot govern on its own. The new election would be held under a new electoral law that gives the winning party an increased first-party bonus, enabling it to win an absolute majority of seats more easily. This would extend the electoral period by at least 30 days.

COALITION UNLIKELY

PASOK is open to cooperation with other leftist parties but the communist KKE and the Left Coalition have ruled this out.

The far-right LAOS parties has repeatedly offered its support to New Democracy, but its leader told Reuters this week he believed the conservatives had no chance of winning.

New Democracy has so far turned down its support but may change its mind if many of its disgruntled voters turn to LAOS.

If none of the three leading parties can form a coalition, the president dissolves parliament, calls new elections and asks a senior court official to form a caretaker government until new elections are held.

BLOCKING TACTICS?

The loser could trigger another parliamentary election in March by blocking the election of the president. Analysts also see this as unlikely as no party would gain from dragging Greece through a prolonged crisis.
 
Karamanlis has ruled out using this tactic.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsThe FTSE 100's longest losing streak since April carried the benchmark below the 5,000 level on Friday.

Only eight blue-chip stocks ended in positive territory, with SABMiller alone in gaining more than 1 per cent. The brewer was in demand on hopes it will buy Femsa Cerveza.

Femsa, Mexico's leading drinks maker, said overnight it was exploring opportunities to sell or find a partner for its Cerveza beer division, whose brands include Sol and Tecate.

Femsa controls nearly half of Mexico's duopolistic beer market, which is the world's sixth-largest. Both SAB and Heineken are said to have sounded out Femsa in the past but were blocked by the group's controlling shareholders.

UBS reckoned SAB was the frontrunner for a deal. While Heineken would probably require a rights issue, SAB could fund a bid entirely with debt, it said.

UBS added that a rumoured $9bn price tag was at the top of the likely range, even though it would be accretive to SAB's earnings immediately.

Merrill Lynch's team took a more cautious view.

Heineken regretted being outbid by SAB for the Colombian brewer Bavaria in 2005 so may bid aggressively this time around, it said. The broker also noted little scope to cut costs beyond selling Sol and Tecate internationally.

SAB closed up 2.4 per cent at £15.16. Meanwhile, soft drinks maker Britvic gained 3.7 per cent to 356¾p helped by renewed talk about sector consolidation.

Weak US jobs numbers left the FTSE 100 1.2 per cent lower, down 59.11 points at 4,988.70. It was a fourth straight loss for the index, its worst run for six months.

Bank stocks amplified the market's recent reversal, with those looking at equity issues suffering most.

Royal Bank of Scotland led the blue-chip fallers, down 7.7 per cent to 46¾p. Lloyds Banking Group was down 4.5 per cent at 94¾p.

Legal & General slid 3.1 per cent to 82¼p, having jumped 17 per cent in the previous three days on bid speculation.

Traders attributed L&G's weakness to comments from National Australia Bank suggesting it was not interested in buying a UK insurer, and on a Goldman Sachs downgrade sent out late on Thursday.

Lonmin slid 2.2 per cent to £15.05 amid worries that it may be forced into a share issue to cover bad debts at Incwala, its partner under South Africa's black economic empowerment legislation. Those fears also affected Xstrata , Lonmin's biggest shareholder, which may have to look at raising external capital to avoid being diluted.

Xstrata closed 2.1 per cent lower at 853½p while Anglo American drifted 0.4 per cent to £18.76. There was little response to news that the Takeover Panel had given Xstrata a deadline of October 20 to make a formal offer or walk away.

GlaxoSmithKline underperformed other defensive stocks, losing 0.4 per cent to £12.18½ after briefing documents from the US health regulator raised concerns over the safety of its cancer drug candidate Pazopanib. An advisory committee meets on Monday to approve or reject the drug, which analysts had forecast to generate sales of about £100m by 2013.

A UBS upgrade to "buy" helped Schroders take on 0.4 per cent to £10.73. "The market is not fully valuing its net cash, despite the fact that its strong balance sheet is helping the group to win significant fund inflows," said the broker.

Burberry Group edged up 0.3 per cent to 502½p after signing new terms with its Japanese licencees, including an expiry date brought forward by five years to 2015. "Controlling Japan is critical to Burberry's quest to become a true global luxury brand, and we view this as a strong potential positive catalyst," said Nomura.

Among the mid-caps, HMV Group rose 2.8 per cent to 105½p after Goldman Sachs added the retailer to its "conviction buy" list.

Anite, the software maker, rose 2.9 per cent to 35p after one of its leading competitors was put into administration.

Bluesky Travel Systems, a privately owned travel reservations specialist, called in the administrators after biggest customer Thomas Cook cancelled a contract. Repeating "buy" advice, Altium Securities said Anite had a reasonable chance of picking up Bluesky's customers.

Goldshield was up 4.7 per cent to 490p after Israel's Fuhrer family raised its bid for the generic drugmaker to 480p, trumping a 460p offer from Goldshield's former bosses.

Oriel Securities cut its rating on Rotork, the valve maker, which weakened 0.4 per cent to £11.21. Comments from larger peer Smiths Group suggest tough trading will persist, Oriel said.

Powerleague, the five-a-side football centre operator, rose 15.7 per cent to 51½p after agreeing a 52p-a-share bid from its biggest shareholder, the private equity firm Patron Capital. Traders saw little read-across for Goals Soccer Centres, steady at 210p, as Powerleague was a much weaker operator whose growth had stalled.

Helphire, the courtesy car group recently the subject of speculative demand, rose 6.8 per cent to 47p after its annual update showed turnround measures in place and current trading no weaker than feared.

French Connection, the struggling clothes retailer, edged 1.6 per cent higher at 46½p. After the close the group said it would close its 21 Japanese stores, which were lossmaking, and look for licensees instead.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed at its lowest level in more than two months Friday, as Wall Street's decline on disappointing economic data spurred fears over a prolonged weakness in global bourses. A fall in US auto sales hit auto and steel stocks especially hard.

Close attention will be paid to upcoming US corporate earnings, he added.

Cautious market sentiment also reigned before US nonfarm payrolls data due later in the global day.

The Nikkei fell 246.77 points, or 2.5%, to 9731.87. For the week, the index lost 5.2%, but is still up 9.8% for the year. A good portion of 2009's gains have been surrendered over just the past six sessions.

The Nikkei could test 9,500 on Monday, said Daiwa Securities SMBC analyst Yumi Nishimura, if the US employment data disappoint.

The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues dropped 21.45 points, or 2.4%, to 874.67, with all 33 subindexes closing in negative territory and auto, steel and insurance stocks looking particularly anemic.

Trading volume totaled nearly 2.2 billion shares, the highest level in six weeks.

Automakers were hit after data Thursday showed September US auto sales returned to depressed levels, as the government-run "Cash for Clunkers" subsidy program proved to be more of a flash in the pan, according to Nikko Cordial senior strategist Tsuyoshi Kawata. "The market had been too optimistic about economic recovery prospects," he said.

With the Yen's continued strength against the Dollar also weighing, Toyota Motor sank 3.7% to Y3,380 and Honda Motor lost 3.4% to Y2,670.

Fallout from weak US auto sales also hurt steelmakers. Nippon Steel plunged 5.0% to Y304 while JFE Holdings fell 2.3% to Y3,040 on concerns over demand from automakers. Analysts also cited worries over steel oversupply in China.

Nonlife insurers were sharply lower, with Tokio Marine Holdings down 4.7% at Y2,430 and Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group off 4.6% at Y2,360. In addition to concerns over losses on shareholdings as global stocks slide, players saw a near-term downside risk in insurance stocks due to technical factors relative to other financials such as banks, which have been harder hit in recent weeks.

Rare advancers included synthetic fiber maker Teijin, which rose 4.1% after Mizuho Securities lifted its rating to 1 from 3 and set its target price at Y400, citing better profitability in polycarbonate operations and its pullout from unprofitable businesses.

December Nikkei 225 futures ended down 250 points, or 2.5%, at 9730 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

SOUTH KOREA

Markets were closed Friday for a Public Holiday.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong shares slumped to a three-week low Friday when the city's stock market reopened in a gloomy mood a day after the National Day public holiday. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell 579.76 points, or 2.77 per cent, to close at 20,357.49 points. Turnover was 56.9 billion Hong Kong Dollars (7.34 billion US Dollars.)

Banks led losses, with HSBC down 3.73 percent, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China down 2.57 percent, and China Construction Bank down 1.62 percent. Hong Kong's benchmark index touched a one-year high on 17 September, but the rally has stalled since on concerns of steep valuations and the global economic outlook.

For the third quarter, Hong Kong's benchmark index rose 12 percent, but brokers warned that the trend was not sustainable.

The China Enterprises Index of top locally listed mainland Chinese stocks was down 2.8 percent at 11,526.32.

Energy shares fell after crude prices fell by more than $1 to below $70 per barrel on Friday. PetroChina slipped 2.74 percent, Sinopec Corp. shed 3.34 percent and CNOOC finished down 1.73 percent.

Heritage International, which invests in property and securities, fell 14.55 percent after the company said it aimed to raise HK$154.4 million in a stock placement to boost its capital. The stock was the top percentage loser in Hong Kong. Toys-to-property company RBI Holdings bucked the market weakness and more than tripled after saying it would acquire Apollo Precision, a maker of silicon-based thin film photovoltaic modules, for HK$4.18 billion ($539.4 million), as it aims to cash in on growing demand for solar energy in China.

The stock was the top percentage gainer in Hong Kong, up 237.69 percent at HK$4.39.

Glorious Property Holdings, the Chinese developer, plunged on its first day of trading on Friday, becoming the fifth company whose shares have dropped on their debut in Hong Kong in just over a week.

The stock fell as much as 20 per cent, adding to concerns that investors are losing their appetite for initial public offerings in the territory, where dozens of mainland Chinese companies plan to sell new shares in the coming months.

The pipeline of IPOs planned for Hong Kong has bulged in recent months as mainland Chinese companies rush to take advantage of the buoyant stock market and robust investor demand for emerging equities.

Glorious recovered to trade 12 per cent lower at HK$3.87 in the afternoon. The company, which focuses on mid- to high-end developments, raised HK$9.9bn (US$1.28bn) in its IPO last week.

China South City, a developer of logistics centres, fell 23 per cent on Wednesday - Hong Kong's worst trading debut this year. Its decline followed dismal debuts from China Lilang, owner of the country's biggest men's clothing brand, and Peak Sport Products, the athletic shoemaker.

Metallurgical Corporation of China, the engineering and construction company, fell 12 per cent on its debut last Thursday after raising HK$18.2bn in Hong Kong's biggest IPO this year. However, Sinopharm, China's biggest pharmaceuticals distributor, which debuted in Hong Kong the day before, rose 16 per cent on the first day and has traded strongly ever since.

CHINA

Closed until 9 October for the 60th National Holiday celebrations.

TAIWAN

Taiwan share prices closed 0.48 percent higher Thursday as the local currency strengthened against the US Dollar, dealers said.

The weighted index rose 36.12 points to 7,545.29 on turnover of NT$135.33 billion (US$4.21 billion).

A total of 29 shares surged to their daily 7.0 percent limit, against 15 limit-down. But losers outnumbered gainers 1,288 to 1,178, while 207 stocks remained unchanged.

The Taiwan Dollar traded at 32.13 against the US Dollar midday, compared with the close of 32.2 on Wednesday.

Far Eastern Textile, considered an asset play, rose 3.05 percent to 38.85 while the textile sector was 1.93 percent firmer.

The market was also lifted by reports in the Commercial Times newspaper that Taipei and Beijing would sign an agreement before the month's end on financial cooperation.

However, Wang warned of profit-taking after the market rallied for three consecutive sessions.

Fubon Financial gained 2.48 percent to 37.2 after profit-taking eroded earlier gains that had taken it limit-up.

Financials finished 2.32 percent higher, cement rose 1.87 percent but construction was 0.30 percent lower.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co edged up 0.78 percent to 65.0 while United Microelectronics Corp rose 1.60 percent to 16.0.

THE PHILIPPINES

Philippine share prices closed 0.32 percent lower on Friday due to a downturn in the US market and concerns about the possible effects of a new typhoon approaching the country, dealers said.

The composite index fell 8.99 points to 2,820.03 while the all-shares index slipped 0.47 percent to 1,790.20.

There were 20 gainers compared to 78 losers and 60 that were unchanged.

Volume was 1.232 billion shares worth P1.908 billion ($40 million).

The local currency traded at 47.075 to the Dollar.

Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. fell 0.20 percent to P2,445 while Metro Pacific Investments Corp. slipped 1.5 percent to P3.25.

SINGAPORE

Singapore stocks slid nearly two percent on Friday, leading losses across Southeast Asia following disappointing US economic data.

Singapore's Straits Times Index dropped nearly two percent to its lowest since Sept. 4. DBS Group Holdings , Southeast Asia's biggest lender, slid 1.8 percent and Singapore Telecommunications lost 2 percent.

The STI ended the session at 2,604.53, quite steep declines of 1.99%.

MALAYSIA

Lack of direction in the local market saw share prices on Bursa Malaysia closing lower Friday, with selling pressure across the board, said dealers.

At close, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index shed 2.1 points to 1,206.25 after opening 4.15 points easier at 1,204.2.

The FBMEmas fell 27.08 points to 8,095.25, the FBM Top 100 shed 22.56 points to 7,894.68 and the FBM70 dwindled 57.58 points to 7,936.55 but the FBM ACE Index gained 4.83 points to 4,095.33.

The Technology Index edged lower at 0.14 of a point to 16.44, the Finance Index declined 38.27 points to 9,933.65, the Plantation Index slipped 3.96 points to 5,895.03 and the Industrial Index lost 5.67 points at 2,627.6.

Losers led gainers by 467 to 192 while 221 counters were unchanged and 383 untraded.

Turnover rose to 618.181 million shares worth RM871.854 million from 521.508 million shares worth RM822.688 million Thursday.

A local analyst said although the local market was down, it was not as bad as its regional counterparts.

"Some of the heavyweights' gain Friday had helped limit the losses," he said.

For the top gainers, IRCB, AMMB-CD and ASIAEP-WB each gained half a sen to 54.5 sen, 33 sen and 3.5 sen, respectively.

The top losers saw DFZ losing 12 sen to RM4.35, BHIC shed 11 sen to RM4.94 and SUPERLN lost 10.5 sen to 39.5 sen.

Leading the actives, GPACKET-WA added 22.5 sen to 23 sen while KNM and SAAG declined half a sen each to 74.5 sen and 20.5 sen, respectively.

Among heavyweights, Sime Darby slipped one sen to RM8.53, Maybank was down four sen to RM6.64 while CIMB Group went up two sen to RM11.14.

Tenaga Nasional was flat at RM8.21 while IOI Corp rose one sen to RM5.22, DiGi climbed six sen to RM21.66 and Tanjong jumped 24 sen to RM15.32.

On the Main Market, turnover increased to 522.249 million shares worth RM847.159 million from 439.154 million shares worth RM804.006 million on Thursday.

The ACE market volume rose to 68.692 million shares valued at RM16.77 million versus 50.518 million shares valued at RM10.033 million previously.

Warrants however fell to 22.814 million units worth RM5.503 million against 27.605 million units worth RM6.744 million before.

Consumer products accounted for 42.45 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 81.317 million, construction 47.321 million, trade and services 152.928 million, technology 76.945 million, infrastructure 8.896 million, finance 45.481 million, hotels 1.998 million, properties 50.829 million, plantations 12.279 million, mining nil, REITs 1.728 million and closed/fund 71,600.

INDONESIA

The JSE closed out Friday at 2,479.85, one of the few markets in Asia to gain on the day, albeit up just 0.08%.

Gainers in Jakarta included Bank Central Asia, which rose 4.7 percent and Bank Mandiri which gained 3.2 percent.

Bumi Resources fell 1.6 percent, extending a 3 percent loss on Thursday after the biggest coal producer reported a 17 percent decline in its first half net profit, due to higher tax charges.

THAILAND

Bangkok snapped three days of gains as top energy firm PTT and conglomerate Siam Cement shed 0.8 percent and 1.4 percent respectively following a court order this week suspending operations at the country's largest industrial estate.

The Thai government's lawyer fild an appeal on Friday seeking to reverse the order.

The SET closed out the week at 724.56 - a drop of 0.32%.

INDIA

Markets were closed Friday for a Public Holiday.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market Friday suffered its biggest percentage points fall in more than three months after Wall Street slumped on disappointing manufacturing data and nervousness before non-farm payrolls data.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 99.4 points or 2.1% at 4601.7 on moderate trading volume, after hitting a two-week low of 4601.5.

It was the third consecutive fall in the index. As of Friday, the index hadn't fallen more than three days in a row since July 7.

Wall Street also suffered its biggest falls in three months after the September ISM manufacturing index came in below expectations and Goldman Sachs revised its September employment forecast to a 250,000 fall. Consensus market expectations are for a 175,000 fall.

The materials sector was the weakest, with BHP Billiton falling 2.7% to A$36.20 and Rio Tinto down 2.9% at A$57.19 after London Metal Exchange copper prices fell 3.0%.

Bluescope Steel fell 4.3% to A$2.88 and gold stocks also suffered with Newcrest down 3% to A$31.62.

Banks also weighed on the market with Westpac falling 3.1% to A$25.10 and ANZ down 2.0% to A$23.61 after US banks fell sharply.

In property trusts, Stockland fell 2.7% to A$3.93, Mirvac fell 3.3% to A$1.595 and Westfield fell 1.3% to A$13.18, extending their sharp reversal of strength.

The energy and industrial sectors also came under pressure with Woodside down 1.9% to A$51.42 and Qantas down 3.7% to A$2.84.

On a positive note, 15 stocks in the S&P/ASX 200 fought their way back from morning weakness to close higher.

Among the best performers were Harvey Norman, up 4.8% to A$4.38, AWB Ltd., up 1.6% at A$1.27, PaperlinX up 0.7% to 69 cents and QBE Insurance, up 0.9% at A$23.50.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares took their cue from Wall Street to end weaker Friday although damage was limited by interest in defensive stocks and many investors staying on the sidelines, brokers said.

The NZX-50 Index ended down 1.1%, or 35.00 points, at 3148.86, around half the percentage losses on Wall Street and in Australia, the two bourses that wield the most influence on New Zealand's stock market.

The benchmark index gained 1.2% over the week and on Thursday hit 3183.86, its highest since Oct. 2, 2008.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Bryon Burke said selling Friday was concentrated in stocks with large foreign holdings on their register, such as Telecom Corp., Fletcher Building and Sky Television.

There was scant interest from retail investors in one of the quietest sessions he said he has experienced for some time.

Defensive blue chips that limited damage included power company Contact Energy, up 1.0% at NZ$5.86, and Auckland Airport, up 1.6% at NZ$1.90.

Almost all the rest of market was in the red with bellwether Telecom off 2.6% to NZ$2.63, heavyweight Fletcher Building shedding 1.6% to NZ$8.38, and Sky Television down 0.6% to NZ$4.75.

There was brisk trade in financial services Pyne Gould Corp rights, which dropped 28% to 1.8 NZ cents on their second day of trading while the shares remained steady at NZ$0.44. Pyne Gould is trying to raise up to NZ$270 million to help transform itself into a bank.  
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesRenewed fears about the global economy's recovery prospects led to a hesitant start to the fourth quarter for commodity markets.

Crude oil prices fell on Friday after a bigger-than-expected fall in US employment in September. Nymex November West Texas Intermediate dropped 87 cents to $69.95 a barrel, but was up 5.9 per cent on the week, while ICE November Brent fell $1.12 to $68.07 a barrel, up 4.5 per cent.

Russia's oil production reached 10.01m barrels a day in September, a record, and breaching the 10m b/d mark for the first time. Opec output cuts mean Russia has temporarily overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer.

Gold regained the $1,000 level on Friday as the Dollar weakened in response to the disappointing US employment figures. Gold rose 0.6 per cent to $1,004 a troy ounce. Over the week, gold gained 1.3 per cent, moving between a low of $984.90 on Tuesday and a high of $1,009.40 on Thursday.

Gold's fortunes remain tied to the Dollar but traders continued to express concern that jewellery demand has been damaged by high prices. Turkey, a big jewellery market, imported just 1.7 tonnes of gold in September, down 94 per cent compared with the same month last year.

White sugar prices hit a record $621 a tonne on Thursday, up 95 per cent this year, on concerns about wet weather affecting Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer. Profit-taking dragged the market lower on Friday but over the week Liffe December white sugar rose 2.4 per cent to $591.4 a tonne while ICE March sugar rallied 2.6 per cent to 23.78 cents a Pound.

Liffe March cocoa prices fell 2.1 per cent over the week to £2,006 a tonne after profit-taking pulled prices sharply lower on Friday. Cocoa prices hit £2,108 a tonne on Thursday, up 19.4 per cent this year, due to concerns that a poor crop in the Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer, will result in a global supply deficit for a fourth year in succession.

Holidays in China limited liquidity for base metals, with copper falling 1.8 per cent to $5,885 a tonne.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 Currency markets were in thrall of economic data all week and the important releases - capped by Friday's US non-farm payrolls - mostly disappointed, sending the Dollar and Yen higher.

The payrolls data showed 263,000 jobs were lost in the US during September, contrasting sharply with the 175,000 average forecast.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate crept ever closer to 10 per cent, hitting 9.8 per cent, its highest level since 1983.

This week's manufacturing activity data as recorded by purchasing managers in the US, UK, Europe and Japan were also disappointing, failing to show steady, month-on-month progress.

Analysts warned that the data show that the path to recovery is unlikely to be straight and that investors must overcome such disappointments along the way.

Yet the Dollar pared some of its gains on Friday. It remained 0.2 per cent higher on the day and over the week against Sterling at $1.5924. The Euro, however, after initial losses following the payroll report, recovered 0.6 per cent on Friday to stand 0.4 per cent lower on the week to $1.4627.

Hirohisa Fujii, Japan's new finance minister, caused confusion in foreign exchange markets this week after saying Dollar-Yen moves had not been "abnormal" and that "foreign exchange dumping" to defend his country's exporters would be wrong.

The minister had previously commented on the benefits to consumers of a strong Yen, raising speculation that t the new government would not be likely to intervene in the market.

This week's comments sent the Yen to an eight-month high of Y88.22 on Monday. Later clarification from Mr Fujii, in which he denied he was in favour of a strong Yen, did little to cool appetite for the currency.

Over the week, the Yen was up 1.1 per cent against the Dollar to Y88.63, gained 1.1 per cent to Y129.51 versus the Euro and rallied 1.3 per cent to Y141.14 against the Pound.

Suspected intervention in the foreign exchange market by Swiss authorities on Wednesday drove the franc sharply lower against the Euro on the day.

But it had recovered much of its lost ground by Friday, standing 0.1 per cent lower at SFr1.5101.

Although the Australian Dollar remained flat at $0.8706 on the week, it surged 1.5 per cent on Wednesday. This followed robust retail sales data, which added to evidence that the country's recovery was gaining pace.

The South African Rand surged up from morning session's 1-month high of 7.7873 versus the US Dollar during New York afternoon deals on Friday. The Rand jumped to 7.5910 versus the greenback.

China's RMB rose against the US Dollar Wednesday (the last trading day), as the US currency's decline during Asian trading more than offset a higher central parity rate.

On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar ended at CNY6.8263, down from CNY6.8280 Tuesday. It traded between CNY6.8263 and CNY6.8283.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's manufacturing sector expanded for a seventh straight month in September to a 17-month high as the country's economic recovery continued to fuel industrial production.

The monthly purchasing managers' index rose to 54.3 last month - the highest since May 2008 - from 54 in August, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).

The rise in PMI was largely due to increases in export orders and employment, which indicated a continuous growth of the economy, said CFLP. A PMI reading above 50 signals an expansion, while one below the threshold represents a contraction.

The expansion of manufacturing activities came a day after the State Council warned that overcapacity in the economy could hamper recovery and lead to a surge in non-performing bank loans.

Zhang Liqun, a government economist, said that the growth in PMI had been state-driven, while the transformation to a more enterprise-, consumer- and market-led economy had not been completed.

"The basis of a sustainable economic recovery is still not solid enough. Therefore macroeconomic policy needs to continue to aim to support growth, restructure the economy and deepen reform," Mr Zhang said.

CFLP also warned of squeezing profit margins for manufacturers. It noted that although the index of purchasing prices fell for the first time in 10 months, costs of raw materials and energy remained high.

The CFLP reading is broadly in line with a separate survey by HSBC, which said on Wednesday that PMI reached 55 in September, slightly lower than August's 55.1.

***************************************

Chinese insurance companies will be allowed to invest directly in commercial real estate for the first time under new regulations that are set to trigger a huge influx of cash into the country's high-end property market.

New regulations allowing insurers to invest in real estate go into effect on Thursday, although details on investment limits and what types of property insurers can buy will not be released for another month at least, according to regulatory officials.

Conservative estimates put the amount of potential new investment by Chinese insurers in commercial real estate at $34bn (€23bn, £21bn), according to Jones Lang Lasalle, the real estate consultancy.

Based on current average capital values, $34bn is equal to more than twice the value of the Shanghai Grade A office market.

China's high-end, investment-grade market has seen average investment of just $8.5bn in each of the last two full years, and has been falling since the end of last year as a result of the financial crisis.

The new regulations were "a key step in a process that has already seen a marked shift from a foreign-dominated real estate investment market to one where domestic players have assumed pre-eminence", said David Hand, head of investments for Jones Lang Lasalle China.

China's insurers had combined assets of $540bn at the end of August and given the suitability of real estate as an investment to match long-term insurance liabilities, analysts say they are likely to invest as much as they are allowed.

Considering the Chinese government's record on liberalising insurers' investment scope in the past it is likely the insurance regulator will move slowly and allow insurers to invest only about 5-8 per cent of their assets in real estate at the initial stage.

Chinese insurers are currently allowed to invest up to 10 per cent of their total assets directly in equities and another 10 per cent in equity investment funds. Before 2006 they were not allowed to invest directly in equities at all.

The expected influx of insurance investment to China's commercial real estate will provide a huge boost in leading markets such as Beijing, where one-third of the office space is empty, prices are falling and total floor space is expected to double between 2007 and 2011.

It also comes at a time when foreign interest in the Chinese market has dried up as a result of the financial crisis and the bursting of property bubbles across the world.

Most Chinese insurers are directly owned by the state and some, including the People's Insurance Company of China, have said they intend to invest in low-income housing when the new rules come into effect.

The largest insurance companies have been positioning themselves for at least three years in anticipation of eventually being allowed to invest in real estate.

Most have bought large office buildings in the centre of big Chinese cities that are ostensibly for their own use but in reality far exceed their own corporate office space requirements.

***************************************

China's benchmark for property stocks is close to slipping below its 200-day moving average, signaling losses in global stocks and commodities and gains in the US Dollar, according to Bank of America Corp.

The Se Shang Property index's 200-day moving average is at 4,214.70, 4.5 percent below the index's close of 4,413.23 on Sept. 30. The index, which is down 28 percent from its July high, is an "exceptional" predictor of global markets, Bank of America wrote in a report.

"Watch the Shanghai property index in coming weeks," BofAt said in the report entitled "world's lead indicator on a precipice." The index "sits precariously on its 200-day moving average. China property stocks are the nexus of China's growth, policy and excess liquidity," they wrote.

The Se Shang index, consisting of 24 companies, has jumped 95 percent this year, compared with a 53 percent advance for the Shanghai Composite Index, the nation's benchmark, on speculation a 4 trillion RMB stimulus package will help the economy reach the government's 8 percent annual growth target. The index warned of China's economic slump in late 2007 and signaled the nation's recovery in late 2008, Hartnett said.

The Se Shang Property Index also foreshadowed advances for emerging-market stocks in September 2007 and the Dollar Index in October 2008.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said this week China may raise interest rates twice next year as economic growth picks up and inflation accelerates. The nation may start tightening monetary policy by increasing bank reserve requirements in the fourth quarter of this year, Credit Suisse Group AG said.
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 This Saturday sees two key events that may unleash sharp moves amongst currencies, mostly for the Eur and USD.

The first is the G7 finance ministers meeting taking place in Istanbul, where the group is expected to issue its communiqué on Saturday afternoon.

USD weakness is a concern for many in the group, with the European contingent leading the way in vocalizing opposition to Eur strength/USD weakness (Trichet, Lagarde, Almunia, and Juncker).

Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty has also openly expressed worries over USD weakness/CAD strength, and indicated that the Australians, though not in the G7, are concerned too.

However, as of moments ago (Saturday morning Asia time), the latest word form G7 'sources' is that the G7 communique will contain only the standard FX language--"excessive currency volatility is undesirable for growth." If true, the market could interpret that as meaning the US tacitly favors a weaker USD and there is no consensus to act in the market, giving Dollar bears another reason to pounce on the greenback.

Both the ECB and the BoE are due to announce policy on Thursday of the coming week. The ECB is expecting to keep policy on hold and make no alterations to its general accommodative stance with respect to 'exceptional' policy measures this month.

Last week saw the ECB's second 12 mth tender. Compared with the first 12 mth auction demand was surprisingly light resulting in Eur72.2  billion being allotted.

President Trichet will likely make reference to improvement in health of the banking sector implied by the muted demand at the 12 mth action. He will also likely make reference to the improvement in recent Eurozone economic data but, he is set to retain his cautious tone on the outlook for the Eurozone recovery.

Of particular interest is whether Trichet will make any reference to the relative strength of the Euro. By recently underpinning his support for the US Treasury's strong USD policy Trichet has hinted that he is worried about the impact of the Euro on the Eurozone recovery.

Trichet may remain reluctant to make a bolder statement with respect to the Euro (once again sitting on the fence). However, he may suggest that Euro strength has acted as a dampener on inflation or export potential. This could inhibit the ability of the Eur to move higher ahead of Thursday's meeting.

That said a 'yes' vote in the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty could enhance to perception of coherence within the EU and lend a little support to the Euro.

Sterling could see additional pressure in the run up to the Oct 08 policy meeting. The market is comfortable with the idea that no firm consideration will be given to QE until November insofar as this will coincide with the next Quarterly Inflation Report.

Speculation that October could bring a cut in the interest rate paid by the BoE on commercial banks reserves held at the bank have also been pared back although remaining rate cut fears coupled with fear that comments from Governor King may again batter the Pound are likely to keep Sterling on the defensive.

The highlight of European data calendar will be the service sector September PMIs. These are generally expected to show further improvement.

The UK data will be most keenly watched given the disappointing outcome of the UK manufacturing PMI data. Poor UK PMI or another weak set of data from the manufacturing sector have the potential to knock back Sterling again.

Not only did payrolls in the US drop a massive -263K for the month of September - which was about -100K below consensus when you tack on the back month revisions - but the real takeaway is that employers also cut hours a further -0.3% on the month!

Empirically, hours lead bodies and for now the trend remains decidedly lower. The annual rate for aggregate hours worked is at the cycle low -7% and the weakest since data go back - all the way to 1965.

This confirms what the initial jobless claims have been telling us (latest print 551K) and that is that jobs continue to bleed at a rapid clip.

The BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) also released preliminary results of its annual benchmark revision for the period of April 2008 through March 2009. Total employment was revised down a massive -824K, with -855K coming in the private sector.

While true that this is backward looking data, it highlights just how wrong the initial BLS estimates of monthly employment had been.

In other words, the government had been extremely overestimating payrolls. It is not out of the question that they are once again underestimating losses and the back-month revisions month in and month out certainly suggest that.

The evidence says that we will continue to see significant NFP declines into the end of the year and double-digit unemployment sooner rather than later.

From a "risk off" perspective this is USD positive as the Greenback has seen a -94% correlation with stocks all year. However, buyers beware as this doesn't exactly paint a rosy picture for the US economy going forward.

Should Europe not show a similar relapse in economic data over the next few weeks, I would expect the Euro to continue to outperform, strongly so in the near-term.

The action lightens up in the US following a busy week. ISM non-manufacturing kicks off the action on Monday while consumer credit is up on Wednesday.

Thursday is the highlight with the weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories due. Friday rounds out the week with the trade balance.

The Eurozone is touch busier with PMI services and retail sales up on Monday.

Eurozone GDP and German factory orders are up Wednesday while Thursday has French business sentiment, French trade, German industrial production and the ECB rate meeting.

Friday sees German trade, German consumer prices and French industrial production.

It is also busy in the UK. PMI services start off the week on Monday while industrial production and consumer confidence are up on Tuesday. The BOE interest rate meeting on Thursday is the highlight for the week while Friday has producer prices and international trade on deck.

Japan is on the lighter side. The economic leading index, current account and trade balance all kick it off on Wednesday. Machine tool orders close out the week on Friday.

Canada has some top-tier data lined up. Building permits and the Ivey purchasing managers index are due on Tuesday while housing starts are scheduled for Thursday. The highlight comes Friday with the all-important employment report and international trade.

Look for the BOC Senior Loan Officer Survey out on Friday as well.

It is an important week down under too. The RBA rate meeting is Monday and the market anticipates that the bank is poised to be one of the first to raise interest rates before the year ends.

While no change is expected this time, markets will be looking for hints on potential future hikes.

Monday also sees the New Zealand NZIER business opinion survey. Australian home loan data is up Tuesday while the Australian employment report is scheduled for Wednesday.

With that, I will leave you all to your respective weekends and if you are still in China, enjoy the remainder of the National Day celebrations - China remains 'on holiday/closed' until Friday 9 October.
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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