Financial Page International

31 October 2009 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
Yes; markets dropped heavily Friday and yes, I could say that I have been warning about it for months now.

So with that in mind, I'm not going to say "the time has come ....." because as we all know, a large dose of media hype over the weekend and the world will see this as a 'buying opportunity'!

So let's just see if this correction takes hold - which it should - and in the meantime, I'll focus on two other trains of thought this week.  Switzerland and stress tests for Insurers.

One could say, "Oh how the mighty have fallen".

Swiss banks used to have the best reputation in the world as being confidential, tax-free and above everything, pretty secure (bit like the country really).

While the spotlight has been on the aggressive drive by the US government to flush tax dodgers out of Switzerland, bankers in Switzerland are instead grappling with the loss of a much richer clientele: Europeans.

Americans have made up no more than 5% of Switzerland's $1.8 trillion offshore-banking business. But European clients are steadily coming clean, spooked by threats of a crackdown by their own governments.

Nonresident, or offshore, clients make up about a third of Switzerland's private-banking business, with just more than half of those coming from other European countries. According to KPMG, as much as 80% of the Europeans' money in Switzerland is undeclared. In all, KPMG reckons that tax evasion could represent up to 25% of Switzerland's total private-banking market.

This weekend, Swiss banking giant UBS AG will hand over the names of 500 suspected American tax dodgers to the Internal Revenue Service, the first of 4,450 names it will turn over as part of an August agreement between the US and Swiss governments. That accord marked a historic breach of Switzerland's cherished bank secrecy, and prodded many Swiss banks to refuse to take American clients for fear of falling foul of US laws.

Now, in the wake of the American crackdown, and Switzerland's cooperation, an exodus of European money is under way. According to consulting group McKinsey & Co., Western European money makes up 51% of legacy assets in Switzerland, but only about a third of new money.

To be sure, the demise of the tax-dodging business is akin to a melting ice cube, and the speed at which it dissolves will depend on how aggressive European governments -- whose rhetoric in clamping down on tax deadbeats has exceeded real action -- will be. No other government has been as aggressive as the US has in putting up demands that the Swiss hand over names of suspected tax dodgers.

But there are signs of pressure. This past week, Italian tax authorities raided local offices of Swiss banks, in what Swiss bankers regard as an attempt to scare tax dodgers. And new treaties Switzerland has signed with France and the UK make it easier for those countries to pursue information on suspected tax dodgers.

The tax crackdown isn't the only factor driving European money away. Many European baby boomers are also anxious to bring money home to recapitalize sagging businesses or pass the money on to their children.

For Swiss banks, a fat business is slipping away. Citizens in Italy, Germany and France -- the big three tax-dodging nations -- stashed their money in Switzerland because of political unrest at home, high inflation and sky-high tax rates. They weren't always after high returns, and they complained little about performance and rarely visited their bankers, who typically had them sign discretionary mandates allowing the bank to act on their behalf. Higher fees on discretionary mandates mean such clients are twice as profitable as those who directly manage their accounts. Some bankers privately admit that the fees on undeclared money can be several times those on declared money.

Since around 2000, the bigger Swiss banks such as Credit Suisse Group, UBS, Julius Baer Group AG and Pictet & Cie have tried to diversify away from tax dodgers by opening branches in Italy, Germany and France and building big onshore businesses with these clients. They are also targeting new millionaires in Russia, the Middle East and Asia. With taxes low at home, investors in these countries are instead fleeing political instability. Indeed, Singapore, also courting these emerging-market millionaires, is now Switzerland's main offshore rival.

But the switch isn't painless. A recent presentation by Credit Suisse gave a rare peek into just how rich the undeclared business was. The bank expanded aggressively abroad over the past decade; between 2006 and the first half of this year, just 4% of its net new money came from Western European clients bringing their money into Switzerland; 59% flowed into its booking centers outside the country.

"Bank secrecy in itself cannot be a value proposition," said Credit Suisse at a presentation recently. "It is important to clients, but the tax angle of it cannot be the driver."

Credit Suisse's operating profit margin on its business managing noncompliant money in Switzerland is 75% -- double the margin on its onshore business. The tax-avoidance business could account for 12% to 15% of the operating profit of Credit Suisse's private bank. As that business melts away, Credit Suisse could have trouble hitting its target of 40% operating margin on the private bank, he says.

The low valuations for a raft of recent private-banking acquisitions also show the poor prospects for undeclared money. In October, Julius Baer paid just 2.3% of managed assets for the Swiss portfolio of ING Groep NV -- far off the 5% paid just a few years ago -- in part because the book contains a large chunk of European clients.

According to analysts, the biggest losers will be the smaller banks, which don't have the resources to bulk up in the areas tax-compliant clients need. They will also struggle to open overseas offices to lure the new rich of the emerging markets.

More on the Swiss Banking problems in Italy.

Italy on Thursday urged Switzerland not to retaliate over their deepening tax and banking dispute after Italian finance police raided local branches of Swiss banks and stood accused of spying on Italians holding secret accounts across the border.

"Counter-measures certainly do not help," said Franco Frattini, Italian foreign minister, while also trying to calm matters by assuring Switzerland that it was not being discriminated against and that their relations remained "excellent".

Billions in undeclared Euros - estimates range from €125bn ($186bn, £112bn) upwards - held by Italians in Swiss banks are the focus of attempts by Italy's cash-strapped centre-right government to repatriate funds under a generous tax amnesty passed by parliament this month.

Unlike deposits held in most other western nations where Italians can, under the amnesty, pay a 5% penalty and keep their funds abroad, monies held in Switzerland and several smaller banking havens must be repatriated to Italy.

Switzerland has responded angrily at being singled out, noting that it had recently been removed from an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development "grey list" of tax havens.

Giulio Tremonti, Italian finance minister and the architect of the third tax amnesty by a Berlusconi government, on Thursday expressed satisfaction with the flows of capital returning to Italy's economy and banks. He gave no figures.

Switzerland on Wednesday summoned Giuseppe Deodato, Italy's ambassador, to express its "surprise" over unannounced checks made by Italy's finance ministry police on 76 branches of mainly Swiss banks in 25 Italian cities on Tuesday. Pascal Couchepin, Swiss interior minister, was quoted in Italian newspapers as describing the checks as "discriminatory" and "pillaging".

Italian finance police - dubbed 007s - have installed video cameras at the main Chiasso border crossing to Switzerland, to record number plates of passing vehicles. Swiss newspapers have also accused the Italian authorities of spying on Italians on trains inside Switzerland. Such surveillance and the spot checks on the Swiss bank branches are widely seen as aimed at intimidating Italians into withdrawing their funds.

Feelings are running high in Lugano, the banking centre of Switzerland's Italian-speaking Ticino region, especially after Mr Tremonti said earlier this month he wanted to "dry out" the main source of Italian money held abroad.

"The way Italy is trying to enforce the amnesty by attacking Switzerland has gone beyond Lugano and Ticino and has turned into a Swiss national issue. Everyone now realises the problem lies in relations with Italy," Alfredo Gysi, chief executive of BSI, Ticino's biggest bank, told the Financial Times.

He said he understood the approach of dialogue taken by Hans-Rudolf Merz, Swiss finance minister and president, but added: "No one should act impulsively but the right approach now is to a willingness to take a tough position."

On to my second topic Friday; European Insurers and impending stress tests.

Allianz, Aviva and Axa are among the European Union's 30 largest insurers to go through stress tests in December to help policymakers judge their resilience to economic shocks and improve supervision.

The insurers will face three scenarios including an adverse shock that mirrors the performance of markets over the 12 months from September 2008, the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (Ceiops), said on Friday.

It will be the first time that stress tests have been conducted across the European insurance industry and follows a series of stress tests on the 22 largest banks, the latest of which gave banking a clean bill of capital health last month.

Ceiops, which could become a powerful pan-European supervisor itself under draft legislation published last month, postponed making a decision on a key element of its advice on new capital rules for insurers. These are expected to hit UK annuity writers especially hard.

The body's member regulators have been discussing the new Solvency II capital rules over the past two days. It issues its first wave of advice to Brussels in about 10 days time. It will reduce some of what the insurance industry called the "excessive conservatism" contained in its consultation papers this summer, according to one person involved in the talks.

However, it will ask for further work to be done on the issue of whether insurers can apply a "liquidity premium", which is key to reducing the cost of the new rules for UK annuity business. The Association of British Insurers said this summer that the UK industry could be forced to raise about £50bn in new capital because of the rules.

Ceiops said the stress tests it endorsed on Friday would include the "adverse scenario" and two others. One would reflect a more severe and prolonged recession and another would see inflation picking up rapidly leading to a steep rise in interest rates.

It said the tests, which will use industry balance sheet data from June this year as a starting point, would focus on the impact on markets and defaults among various kinds of borrowers. It would give no further details.

For the banks' stress tests, run by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors, the adverse scenario assumed a fall in EU gross domestic product of 5.2% in 2009 and 2.7% in 2010.

The CEA, the European insurance association, said the industry "recognised the purpose of the stress tests, understands the political will behind them and obviously will comply".

It added that December was not ideal timing as insurers would be engaged in calculating and preparing their end of year numbers.

The tests were expected to happen next year, with a study of new solvency rules' impact, but were brought forward under pressure from politicians.

On to the numbers on the boards this week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks dropped sharply on Friday as the markets fell for a second successive week on mixed economic numbers that dented optimism.

The Nasdaq Composite index of mostly technology stocks saw its first fall on the month since February after Weak consumer spending numbers suggested the recovery may be slow and protracted.

Analysts insisted, however, that the rally can continue into the new year, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeing an eighth consecutive month of gains.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.5% to 2,045.11 and was down 5% on the week.

The S&P 500 index dropped 2.81% to 1,036.19 and was down 4.14% on the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average of blue-chip stocks fell 2.51% to 9,712.73 and was 2.6% lower on the week.

Gauges of energy and raw-materials producers lost at least 3.5%. Crude oil for December delivery tumbled 3.6%, the most in a month, to $77 a barrel in New York. Copper and gold also fell as the Dollar rose, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest company by market value, dropped 3.1% to $71.67, while Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the biggest publicly traded copper producer, retreated 6.2% to $73.36.

The Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange uses to track the currency against six major US trading partners, gained 0.7%. The index surged 1.3% this week as the S&P 500 lost 4%, its steepest decline since May.

The S&P 500 Financials Index fell 4.8% Friday for the biggest decline among 10 industries after surging the most since July Thursday. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell at least 4.7%.

Citigroup slumped 5.1% to $4.09. The New York-based bank may report a $10 billion writedown of deferred tax assets in the fourth quarter, CNBC reported, citing comments on a conference call by Mayo, an analyst with Calyon Securities USA Inc. CNBC later reported that Citigroup has "no idea" how the analyst got the writedown estimate, citing a spokesman.

CIT Group slumped 24% to 72 cents. The lender said that it has entered into an agreement with Icahn to support its restructuring plan and secured an incremental $1 billion committed line of credit from Icahn Capital LP to provide supplemental liquidity for CIT as it pursues that plan.

Barney Frank, chairman of the US House Financial Services Committee, reversed course and will support requiring financial firms to prepay into a fund the government will use to unwind large firms after they fail. Legislation Frank crafted with the Treasury Department will be amended to create an assessment on institutions with more than $10 billion of assets, he said Friday in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital with Al Hunt" being broadcast this weekend.

MetLife fell 7.6% to $34.03 after posting a third- quarter net loss of $620 million, or 79 cents a share, as revenue declined. Operating earnings, which exclude some investment and derivative results, were 87 cents a share.

McAfee Inc. declined 4.3% to $41.88 after the second-biggest maker of security software reported third-quarter sales that fell short of some analysts' estimates.

NYSE Euronext dropped 6.3% to $25.85. The world's largest owner of stock exchanges reported a 28% decline in third-quarter profit as revenue from equity trading dropped and European competitors took market share. Excluding some costs, profit was 53 cents a share, beating the 46-cent average of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The market for initial public offerings, hurt by the worst returns in at least 14 years, suffered another setback after AEI pulled its sale. Enron Corp.'s former international energy business postponed its IPO Thursday, citing "market conditions" after underwriters earlier cut it by 58% to 21 million shares and lowered the forecast price range.

The S&P 500 closed Friday below its average price over the last 50 days for the second time this week. The index breached its 50-day moving average of 1,052.25. Some technical analysts, who make predictions based on price and volume history, say a move below the 50-day moving average may indicate further losses.

Chevron, the second-largest US energy group, was another casualty as its shares fell 2.03% to $76.37, in spite of third-quarter profits beat expectations,.

Financials and energy stocks have seen some of the largest gains since the rally began in March. Analysts suggested investors may be taking profits in these stocks amid some concern over the strength of the recovery.

Other big losers included McAfee, which saw its shares fall 4.66% to $41.71. The stock has been hit by earnings on Thursday that showed the security software maker had missed revenue estimates as sales grew at their slowest rate in nearly two years.

Novatel Wireless also tumbled, 4.4% to $8.92, after it warned sales of its mobile wi-fi product would be flat to lower.

Stocks of American Express, Home Depot, DuPont and MetLife showed declines. American Express fell 4.5% to $34.80, Home Depot fell 3.2% to $25.08, DuPont dropped 3.55% to $31.81 and MetLife was 8.44% lower to $33.73.

Bucking the trend, shares of Genworth Financial were up 3.93% to $10.58. The insurer reported a net operating profit on Thursday that beat expectations.

Among the sectors, materials was hit hard as well as financials and energy. Financial stocks fell 4.76%, energy shares were down 3.82%, while materials were 3.82% lower.

It was the US consumer spending numbers, which fell for the first time in five months that took the steam out of many stocks.

Data suggested that job losses may keep household spending muted even as the economy resumes growth.

Even though business activity in the US unexpectedly expanded in October, investors focused on the gloomier data.

Chicago's Institute for Supply Management said its business barometer had increased to 54.2, higher than expected. A reading lower than 50 signals a contraction.

The weakness was in spite of strong economic growth numbers on Thursday, which showed that the economy grew at an annualised 3.5% in the third quarter, taking the US out of recession. 
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks tumbled, extending the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index's biggest monthly drop since February, as Alcatel-Lucent SA posted a wider-than-estimated loss and US personal spending and consumer confidence fell.

Alcatel-Lucent slumped 11%. Siemens, Europe's largest engineering company, sank 4.7% after Handelsblatt said that Deutsche Bahn may withdraw a tender for the delivery of high-speed trains. Kazakhmys Plc slid 8.2%, leading mining companies lower as metals declined in London.

The Stoxx 600 plummeted 2% to 236.93 as all 19 industry groups retreated. The gauge slipped 2.3% in October and 3.3% this week, the biggest drop since July 10, amid speculation that an eight-month, 50% rebound has outpaced the prospects for earnings and economic growth.

National benchmarks fell in 15 of the 18 western markets. France's CAC 40 lost 2.9% and Germany's DAX dropped 3.1%. The UK's FTSE 100 slipped 1.8%.

GERMANY

German stocks declined, with the DAX Index posting its first monthly decline since June, as retail sales unexpectedly fell for a second month.

Siemens, Europe's largest engineering company, retreated 4.7%, leading a decline in industrial stocks. Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, and Allianz SE followed European insurance shares lower. ThyssenKrupp AG and Salzgitter AG fell with metal prices.

The benchmark DAX Index lost 3.1% to 5,414.96 in Frankfurt, the biggest decline since July. The gauge has fallen 4.6% in October and is down 5.7% this week amid concern a seven-month rally has outpaced the prospects for earnings and economic growth. The broader HDAX Index lost 3% to 2,719.02 Friday.

Retail sales in September, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, dropped 0.5% from August, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists expected a gain of 1%, the median of 23 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, sales declined 3.9%.

European Union leaders said it's too soon to withdraw emergency measures enacted to counter the recession, according to a draft of the conclusions at Friday's 27-nation summit in Brussels.

Siemens lost 4.7% to 61.47 Euros, its third decline this week. Deutsche Bahn may withdraw a tender for the delivery of 300 high-speed trains from Siemens and Alstom SA because the price is too high, Handelsblatt said, citing Ulrich Homburg, head of Deutsche Bahn's passenger-transport division.

Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, dropped 3% to 107.64 Euros. Allianz, Germany's biggest insurer, fell 4.4% to 78.04 Euros.

Aon, the largest insurance broker, posted a 25% profit drop in the third quarter.

ThyssenKrupp and Salzgitter, Germany's largest steelmakers, declined 3.2% to 21.90 Euros and 2.8% to 61.24 Euros, respectively. European basic-resource shares were the worst performers in Europe's Stoxx 600 as metals fell on the London Metal Exchange.

Infineon Technologies lost 5.3% to 3.065 Euros, while Daimler AG, the world's second-biggest maker of luxury cars, slid 4.4% to 33.08 Euros.

Aixtron jumped 6.1% to 20.37 Euros as the maker of specialized equipment used to produce LED screens was raised to "outperform" from "neutral" at Exane BNP Paribas.

Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology slid 2.5% to 51.12 Euros, paring Thursday's 4.9% gain. The maker of vacuum pumps used in the production of DVDs and instant coffee was cut to "hold" from "buy" at Norddeutsche Landesbank Girozentrale.

Solarworld dropped 2.5% to 14.72 Euros. Berenberg Bank cut its price estimate for the solar company to 15.5 Euros from 20 Euros.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index fell 106.33, or 2.9%, to 3,607.69 in Paris, extending its weekly loss to 5.3%. The gauge posted a 5% decline in October, the first monthly retreat since June. The SBF 120 Index dropped 2.8% Friday.

Alcatel-Lucent slumped 30.5 cents, or 11%, to 2.57 Euros, reversing Thursday's 5.7% advance. The world's largest supplier of fixed-line phone networks posted a third-quarter net loss of 182 million Euros ($270 million), wider than the 174.4 million-Euro average loss based on eight estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Dassault Systemes dropped 89 cents, or 2.2%, to 39.32 Euros, erasing Thursday's 0.6% gain. The world's largest maker of three-dimensional design software was cut to "reduce" from "neutral" at WestLB AG, saying "the trend of its underlying business did not improve in the third quarter." The brokerage has a price estimate of 36 Euros on the shares.

Standard & Poor's Equity Research Ltd. lowered its recommendation on the stock to "hold" from "buy."

Fimalac rose 80.5 cents, or 2.3%, to 35.50 Euros, a second day of gains. The owner of Fitch Ratings Ltd. reported fourth-quarter sales of 144.4 million Euros, up from 137.6 million Euros a year earlier.

Total dropped 1.37 Euros, or 3.3%, to 40.64 Euros, the lowest close in three weeks. Europe's third- largest oil company retreated as crude oil for December delivery fell $1.84, or 2.3%, to $78.03 a barrel at 11:37 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Technip, Europe's second-largest oilfield- services provider, tumbled 2.07 Euros, or 4.6%, to 42.83 Euros.

Alcatel-Lucent SA, the world's largest supplier of fixed-line phone networks, posted a wider- than-expected third-quarter net loss as sales fell, sending its shares to their biggest drop since December.

The loss deepened to 182 million Euros ($270 million), or 8 cents a share, from 40 million Euros, or 2 cents, a year earlier, the Paris-based company said in a statement.

Alcatel-Lucent reiterated a forecast for adjusted operating income of around break-even this year as Chief Executive Officer Ben VerwaaYen cuts jobs and other costs. The company maintained its market forecast for the year, unlike rival Nokia Siemens Networks, which this month said the industry will contract less than it previously anticipated.

Alcatel-Lucent shares fell 11% to 2.57 Euros in Paris, the biggest drop since Dec. 12. The shares have gained 68% this year.

Network-equipment suppliers have suffered as the economic slump cut demand at phone operators, who capped or postponed spending. Ericsson AB, the world's largest maker of wireless phone networks, posted a steeper-than-expected 71% drop in third-quarter profit, as clients slashed spending and Chinese competition drove down prices.

The market for telecommunications equipment and related services will fall between 8% and 12% at constant exchange rates this year, Alcatel-Lucent said Friday, reiterating a previous forecast. Next year the market will expand by less than 5%, Chief Financial Officer Paul Tufano said on a call with reporters.

Alcatel-Lucent, which lost more than 8.5 billion Euros since Alcatel SA bought Lucent Technologies Inc. in 2006, is in talks about the future of a number of non-core assets and one divestiture is in its "late stages," Tufano said on the call.

BELGIUM

In Brussels the Bel 20 ended the week at 2,392.72, a drop of 1.96% for the session Friday.

Belgium's producer price index for the industrial sector excluding construction, fell 0.8% month-on-month in September, Statistics Belgium said Wednesday. Producer prices declined 0.4% in the domestic market and slid 1% in the foreign market.

Energy prices dropped 1.8% and excluding this, producer prices slid 0.3% in the industrial sector.

On a yearly basis, producer prices dipped 8.2% in September. Prices in the domestic and foreign markets decreased 9.5% and 7.3%, respectively.

Belgium's Banking Finance and Insurance Commission (CBFA) is asking 640 "insiders" to tell it what they knew about the Fortis break-up before it was announced and whether they acted on the information.

The Belgian watchdog, which is investigating possible market abuse, is examining the week of trading between Sept. 29 and Oct. 3, 2008, after Fortis had received an 11.2 billion Euro ($16.5 billion) capital injection and before it was carved up by the Netherlands and Belgium.

The CBFA said it had sent letters to the 640 people - "insiders" as the watchdog has called them -- as they may have had access to information about the break-up before it was announced.

They are are not being accused of insider trading, a CBFA spokesman said, declining to give further details.

Belgian business daily De Tijd said the people were being asked if they had passed on any information they had about Fortis to others and if they had traded in the bank's shares. They were also being asked to supply their bank account numbers.

Belgian prosecutors are also investigating Belgian holding company Bois Sauvage and the chief executive of Belgian foam maker Recticel, Luc Vansteenkiste, who was on the boards of Bois Sauvage and Fortis Bank.

Bois Sauvage sold 3.6 million Fortis shares on October 3, 2008, just before the Netherlands announced the nationalisation of Fortis's Dutch operations. It has denied any wrongdoing.

Belgian cable operator Telenet raised its full-year growth forecasts on Thursday after strong third-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 22% year-on-year to 154.8 million Euros ($228.1 million), against the 151 million Euros forecast in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts.

The figures included Interkabel, a group of four Flemish cable operators that Telenet bought in October 2008, and BelCompany, a retail chain it acquired in June.

Telenet, the largest provider of broadband cable services in Belgium, said it now expected revenue to grow by about 16% this year, and EBITDA by about 20%.

It had previously forecast revenue growth of at least 14% in 2009 and EBITDA growth of at least 15%.

The group said it had added 115,000 new digital television, telephone and Internet customers in the July-September third quarter, up from 78,000 added in the same period last year.

THE NETHERLANDS

Amsterdam's AEX closed out trading Friday on 302.36, down 2.35% on the day.

Financial services firm ING Groep, with its announcement of a planned Eur7.5 billion rights issue, Monday became the third Dutch financial company to initiate plans to issue new shares in an effort to regain its independence.

ING said it wants to pay Eur5 billion of the Eur10 billion in state aid it received last year to protect itself from the effects of the global credit crisis.

In addition, ING will pay accrued interest on an 8.5% coupon and a repayment premium to partly buy out the government. Depending on the exact timing and its share price at that time, the early repayment will cost between Eur593 million and Eur951 million.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC, The Hague, Netherlands, will make a total of $5 billion in pension contributions in 2009, the company said in its third quarter earnings announcement.

The company already has paid $4.2 billion to the plans.

Earlier this year, Shell had announced it would contribute $6 billion to $8 billion to its plans. The typical annual contribution by the company is $1 billion to $2 billion, according to Shell.

Dutch insurer Aegon NV Thursday detailed its previously announced plan to repay state aid, saying that it will reimburse Eur1 billion of the total Eur3 billion it received by Nov. 30.

Aegon said it will pay back the government with cash raised in August through an equity issue and that the Dutch central bank has approved the move.

"It continues to be our intention to fully repay the Dutch state at the earliest opportunity and this is a first step toward doing so," said Aegon Chief Executive Alex Wynaendts.

"Aegon's strong excess capital position and the improved economic outlook support our decision to fully exercise the option of early repayment," he said.

Under the terms of Aegon's agreement with the Dutch state, the premium payment on its government cash amounts to a maximum of 13%, or Eur130 million, depending on the average Aegon share price in the five trading days from Nov. 23 to Nov. 27.

The early payment will save Aegon Eur350 million-Eur375 million in premium payments, company spokesman Dick Schiethart said. He added that an additional 8.5% coupon payment for the period till Nov. 30 comes to Eur44 million.

Aegon expects to repay the remaining Eur2 billion state aid in two to three years.

AUSTRIA

In Vienna, the ATX finished the day at 2,483.89, down 1.28%.

Erste Bank AG, the Austrian lender that makes most of its money in eastern Europe, said it plans to raise as much as 1.65 billion Euros ($2.45 billion) in a rights offering to boost capital depleted by loan losses.

Shareholders will be offered three new shares for every 16 held, the Vienna-based bank said in a statement. Erste is selling as many as 60 million new shares and calculates the amount raised on an "assumed offer price" of 27.50 Euros.

European lenders are boosting capital reserves as central bankers seek to avert a repeat of the global financial crisis. BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA, France's largest lenders, Italy's UniCredit SpA and ING Groep NV of the Netherlands have announced plans to raise a combined 21 billion Euros in share sales after equity markets rebounded from their March lows.

The sale will boost Erste's core Tier 1 capital ratio, a key measure of financial strength, to 7.8% from 6.5%.

Investors can order the stock from Nov. 2 through Nov. 16 and shares not subscribed by shareholders will end on Nov. 17, with new shares starting to trade in Vienna, Prague and Bucharest on Nov. 19. Rights to purchase the new shares won't be traded.

Erste received 1.2 billion Euros from Austria's government during the credit crisis and also raised 540 million Euros from investors. The share sale will "substitute the previously planned issuance of government-sponsored hybrid capital" of 1 billion Euros, the bank said in the statement.

Criteria CaixaCorp, which in June, increased its stake in Erste to 5.1%, has "indicated" that it will participate in the share sale, Erste said in the statement. The holding company for Spain's biggest savings bank will also "acquire and exercise all of Erste Stiftung's subscription rights."

This will give Criteria a holding of at least 10% in the bank, while the stake of Erste Foundation, the bank's biggest shareholder, may decline to as little as 26%.

UniCredit Bank Austria, the unit managing most of UniCredit's emerging European banks, will get fresh capital from its parent after UniCredit's capital raising, Bank Austria's head was quoted as saying on Thursday.

"The capital increase will start in January on the group level and will be concluded in the first quarter," Bank Austria's new chief executive, Willibald Cernko, was quoted as saying in an interview with Austrian daily WirtschaftsBlatt.

"Right after that, there will be a capital injection into Bank Austria," Cernko said. He added that Bank Austria's core Tier 1 capital ratio would rise to around 9% after the capital increase, from 7.2% at the end of June.

Cernko said that Bank Austria was sticking to plans to sell its stake in 3 Banken Gruppe, a group of three cross-owned regional banks, but that they would be kept on ice until markets were in the right shape for such a deal again.

Finally in Vienna, Austria is being taken to court over tax provisions which allow donations to universities, art colleges and the academy of science in the country to be deducted as operating expenses but not for similar donations to comparable institutions abroad.

SWITZERLAND

Zurich's SMI rounded out a busy week at 6,285.76, a decline of 1.03% for the bourse Friday.

Private consumption in Switzerland edged up in September although there were still no signs of a sustainable recovery in consumer spending, UBS bank said in a report Tuesday.

The UBS private consumption indicator rose to 0.63 in September from 0.62 recorded in August, well below its long-term average of 1.5. The index is calculated by taking five parameters into account namely new car sales, activity in the retail sector, the number of hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer confidence index and credit card transactions made via UBS points of sale.

"There continues to be no sign of a sustainable recovery in private consumption in Switzerland," UBS bank said in a statement. "The current level hints only at a modest expansion in private consumption compared to last year." Among the sub-indicators, new car sales and improved retail activity helped stabilize private consumption in September.
 
Zurich-based power and automation-technology giant ABB reported on Thursday that third-quarter net income rose 12%, as its cost-cutting program made faster progress than expected, but revenue fell and the company said its outlook over this year and next "remains uncertain."

ABB earned $1.03 billion, or 45 cents a share, in the period, against $927 million, or 41 cents, during the year-earlier period. That figure included a $380 million net gain for previously-announced provision adjustments. A survey of 14 analysts polled by FactSet Research was expecting ABB to earn 27 cents.

Revenue declined to $7.91 billion from $8.79 billion. The company held its profit margins based on earnings before interest and taxes within its target range as it executed projects on time and made stronger-than-expected progress in its cost-cutting program, Chief Executive Joe Hogan said in a statement on Thursday.

New orders in the quarter fell 21% to $7.06 billion. In local currency, that was a fall of 15%. Investments in power grids grew, but there was lower demand for shorter-cycle products in industrial markets, which led to a 23% fall in base orders in local currency. Its share of orders from emerging markets increased to 55%.

In the nine months, ABB cut more than $1 billion of costs, equaling its target for the year. "[When] and how quickly capital investments by customers will recover from the downturn" is unclear, ABB said.

Adding to the lack of clarity was volatile raw-material prices and limited availability of project funding, "especially among small- to medium-sized companies, ABB said.

The priority of management for the next few quarters will be to "ensure that the company has the flexibility to respond quickly to changing market conditions, taking advantage of its global footprint, strong balance sheet and leading technologies to improve its cost competitiveness while simultaneously tapping further opportunities for profitable growth."

SWEDEN

The OMX in Stockholm completed a hectic week on 944.68, a GAIN of 0.52% - in fact, one of the few markets throughout Europe to manage any semblance of a gain.

Consumer confidence in Sweden improved further in October, as households' pessimism regarding the Swedish economy moderated slightly, the National Institute of Economic Research or NIER said Wednesday.At the same time, business confidence also increased in October.

The consumer confidence index rose to 7.5 in October from 5.6 in the previous month, and was higher than economists' expectations of a reading of 6. The index has risen gradually since May and remained above the historic average. Sentiment regarding the current situation on the economy improved, but was still negative. About 55% of households considered the economy to be weaker now than 12 months earlier, compared to 62% in September.

Households were less pessimistic about the unemployment situation in one year, with only 51% expecting unemployment to rise in one year compared to 56% last month. At the same time, consumers' inflation expectation edged higher to 1.9% in October from 1.8% in September. Consumers' confidence on personal finances remained unchanged.

Meanwhile, the business confidence indicator climbed to minus 1 in October from minus 13 in July when the previous survey was conducted. "The indicator has now risen 24 points from its lowest level in the first quarter of 2009", the NIER said. Manufacturing confidence moved up to minus 12 from minus 20, and came in better than economists' expectation for a reading of minus 17.1.

Similarly, the construction confidence rose to minus 33 from minus 40, and the trade confidence moved up to minus 12 from minus 21. Confidence in the private service sectors rose to minus 6 from minus 18.

The economic sentiment indicator, which comprises both consumer and business confidence, rose to 94.8 in October from 90.7 in September. Economists expected the index to be 93.

Elsewhere, the Statistics Sweden said the retail sales rose 2.7% on a yearly basis in September, much faster than a 1.2% growth in September. Economists expected a 3% rise. This represents the sixth consecutive month of increase in sales. Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted sales rose 0.2% in September, after a 2.3% fall in August, revised downward from a 2.1% drop reported initially. In the July to September period, retail sales were flat on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 1.2% growth in the previous three months.

Swedish private equity group EQT said Friday that its UK-based fund EQT V bought Bulgarian cable TV providers CableTEL and Eurocom for a total enterprise value of more than Eur200m and will merge them into a new entity.

The group will acquire 100% of Eurocom from US-based equity fund Warburg Pincus and 70% of CableTel from US entreprenEur Gene Phillips.

The Bulgarian firms will be merged in 2010. CableTel's current shareholder Ron Finley, who has a 30% stake, will transfer his interest in the new entity and invest further equity.

DENMARK

Copenhagen's OMX closed on 324.16, a dip of 0.91% for the day.

Thursday, Statistics Denmark announced that the unemployment rate stood at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% in September, up from 3.7% in the previous month. The September jobless rate is the highest since May 2006, when the rate was 4%. The unemployment rate had been stable for three straight months starting from June. Economists were looking for a rate of 3.9%.

The number of unemployed persons totaled 113,500 in September, up from 104,300 in August. This marks the highest number recorded since April 2006, when the number of unemployed stood at 113,600.

The European Commission Thursday approved a plan by the Danish government to provide short-term credit insurance to Danish exporters.

An earlier plan to help Danish exporters find insurance has proved insufficient, the commission said.

"Sufficient proof has been provided that the necessary cover has become unavailable on the private insurance market as a consequence of the financial crisis and that the premiums are aligned to those of the private market," the commission said.

Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk Thursday reported a better-than-expected 3.7% rise in third-quarter net profit due to strong insulin sales and raised its full-year profit outlook in local currencies.

The world's largest insulin maker said it now expects operating profit growth in local currencies of 15%, after raising it to 12% to 14% in the second quarter and from at least 10% previously.

However, reported operating profit growth is now seen at around three percentage points higher than in local currencies, against four percentage points previously. It was lowered from a rise of eight percentage points in the second quarter.

"The robust sales growth for our portfolio of modern insulins is the key driver of the solid business performance in the first nine months of 2009," said Chief Executive Lars Rebien Sorensen.

Novo Nordisk booked a net profit of 2.76 billion Danish kroner ($547.8 million) for the three months to Sept. 30, up from DKK2.66 billion a year ago due to strong insulin sales, which offset hefty costs from the European launch of diabetes treatment Victoza. Analysts expected net profit of DKK2.65 billion.

"The launch of Victoza in Europe is progressing well and we are seeing strong in-market penetration in the first-wave launch countries, Germany, the United Kingdom and Denmark," the CEO added.

Sales increased to DKK12.52 billion from DKK11.25 billion, missing expectations for DKK12.73 billion. Operating profit rose to DKK3.81 billion from DKK3.32 billion the year before, beating expectations of DKK3.34 billion.

Novo Nordisk said it expects the US Food and Drug Administration in the fourth quarter to provide feedback on the planned launch of Victoza in the US

It rolled out Victoza in the UK, Germany and Denmark during July and expects to release it in other European countries this year and next.

NORWAY

In Oslo, the OBX rounded off a volatile week at 299.29, down 2.13% and hit the hardest of the Scandinavian markets.

Tandberg ASA declined 1.8% to 153.7 Kroner Friday. Cisco Systems may drop its 17.2 billion-Krone ($3.1 billion) offer for the world's largest maker of videoconferencing equipment as shareholders owning 24% of the Norwegian company press for a higher bid, said a person familiar with the transaction.

Norway's jobless rate dropped to 2.6% in October from 2.7% in September, Norwegian Labor and Welfare Organization said Thursday. Economists had forecast the rate to remain at 2.7%. There were 68,300 registered unemployed at the end of October.

Thursday, the Statistics Norway said the seasonally adjusted retail sales volume, excluding motor vehicles, dropped 1.2% in September, after a 0.2% growth in August. Economists expected a 0.4% rise.

Year-on-year, the unadjusted retail sales volume grew 0.9%, faster than a 0.4% rise the previous month. Retail sales value was up 2.8%, after a 2% growth last month.

Meanwhile, retail sales volume excluding petrol rose 2% compared to a 1.5% rise in August.

Aluminium and aluminium products supplier Norsk Hydro ASA Tuesday reported a sharp increase in net profit for the third quarter, benefited by financial gains as well as a positive development in aluminium prices, despite a plunge in revenues.

For the third quarter, net income attributable to shareholders was NOK 1.01 billion or NOK 0.83 per share compared to NOK 202 million or NOK 0.17 per share in the prior-year quarter.

The Oslo, Norway-based company's revenues for the period, however, plummeted to NOK 16.34 billion from NOK 21.77 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2008.

On a segmental basis, revenues from primary metal were NOK 6.36 billion versus NOK 9.26 billion, revenues from metal markets segment slumped to NOK 9.57 billion from NOK 12.47 billion last year.

Rolled products segment generated revenues of NOK 4.35 billion compared with NOK 5.84 billion, revenues from extruded products fell to NOK 4.94 billion from NOK 6.16 billion in the 2008-year period. However, revenues from energy segment rose slightly to NOK 1.08 billion from NOK 1.01 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Norsk said its third quarter was marked by a strong positive development in aluminium prices. London Metal Exchange, or LME, three month prices increased from a low of US$1,566 per mt in the beginning of July reaching a high of US$2,066 per mt in the middle of August. For the remainder of the quarter, prices ranged from around US$1,800 to US$1,950 per mt.

During the quarter, total expenses incurred by the company were NOK 15.84 billion compared with NOK 19.55 billion in the previous year. Income tax expense incurred during the period totaled NOK 707 million versus NOK 201 million in the last-year period.

Norsk had a net financial income of NOK 989 million during the three-month period compared to an expense of NOK 1.98 billion in the prior year.

For the nine-month period, net earnings plunged to NOK 868 million or NOK 0.72 per share from NOK 2.09 billion or NOK 1.73 per share in the comparable period prior year. Year-to-date revenues were NOK 50.31 billion compared with NOK 67.28 billion a year ago.

Looking ahead, Norsk expects increased reservoir levels, along with lower maintenance activity, to result in higher power production in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2009. The company expects spot prices to continue to be on lower level. Power production in the fourth quarter is estimated to be significantly lower than the corresponding period in 2008 primarily due to outage at Suldal I power station, Norsk said.

FINLAND

Helsinki's OMX ended Friday at 5,952.96, dropping 1.42% in the process.

Tuesday, Statistics Finland announced that its consumer confidence index stood at 12.3 in October, up from 11.7 in September and 8.2 in August. The confidence indicator was at minus 0.2 a year ago.

In October, three of the four components that make up the index were positive. The indicator measuring own economic situation in 12 months' time increased to 9 in October from 6.6 in September. The index measuring Finland's economic situation in 12 months' time grew to 21.4 from 19.5, while consumers' assessment on households' saving possibilities in the next 12 months fell to 43 from 47.8.

On the other hand, the index measuring the nation's unemployment situation in 12 months' time remained gloomy at minus 24.1 in October, compared to minus 27 in September.

Finland manufacturing and construction confidence increased further in October, the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK said on Tuesday.

The manufacturing confidence indicator stood at minus 15 in October, up from minus 17 in September. In the long-term average, the confidence indicator was 2.

Order books improved slightly in October, while stocks of final goods remained unchanged at low levels, the agency said.

In October, the business confidence in the service sector dropped to minus 25 from a revised minus 21 in September. Similarly, the retail trade confidence decreased to minus 17 from minus 15 in September.

Meanwhile, the construction confidence indicator improved to minus 30 in October from minus 45 in September. In the long term average, indicator stood at minus 5.

SPAIN

Madrid's IBEV closed out the session and the week at 11,414.80, a dip of 2.30% for the day.

The Spanish economy remained in recession in the third quarter weighed down by a high unemployment and weak consumption.

In its quarterly report on the Spanish economy, the Bank of Spain said the economy likely contracted 0.4% sequentially in the third quarter after a sharp 1.1% shrinkage in the previous three months. In the first quarter, the economy had shrunk 1.6%. This would be the fifth straight quarter of contraction after a flat reading in second quarter of 2008.

The central bank noted that the contraction in the third quarter is the least pronounced since the recession began. However, this more favourable performance is linked in part to public measures with temporary effects, the bank added.

"The easing in the quarter-on-quarter path of decline was extensive to the main components of domestic expenditure, although more markedly so in household consumption, where the direct aid for car purchases was influential, and in public investment, where there was headway in the roll-out of Local Investment Fund projects," the report said.

Year-on-year, the gross domestic product dropped 4.1% in the third quarter after a 4.2% decline in the previous three months. The National Statistics Institute is set to release the preliminary third quarter GDP data on November 12.

The Spanish government had one of the largest stimulus packages. Despite this, economy was hit hard by a construction industry slump and high unemployment. The jobless rate stood at 17.9% in the third quarter, while employment declined by 7.3%.

Inflation has eased while the core inflation that excludes energy and unprocessed food prices stood at a record low of 0.1% at the end of the third quarter, the central bank noted. Data released by the statistical agency on Thursday showed that Spain's harmonized index of consumer prices declined for the eighth straight month in October.

The HICP slipped 0.6% year-on-year in October, slower than the 1% fall in the preceding month and the record 1.4% decline in July. Economists had expected the index to fall 0.7%.

In March, the HICP declined on an annual basis for the first time since the series began in January 1997. The index has maintained the declining trend afterwards. In September, the index dropped 0.2% from August. The statistical office is scheduled to release the final HICP data on November 13.

PORTUGAL

In Lisbon, the PSI General Index closed out the week at 2,835.24, down 1.79% for the session.

Thursday, the Statistics Portugal said in a report that the retail sales decreased 1.3% year-on-year in September, compared to the 2.3% fall in the previous month.

Meanwhile, retail sales, excluding fuel dropped 0.8% in September, after falling 1.9% in August.

On a monthly basis, retail sales dropped 2% in September, compared to the 0.6% fall in the preceding month.

The wages and salaries increased 4% on an annual basis in September, compared to the 6.4% growth in the previous month. At the same time, employment and the number of hours worked declined by 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

Thursday, the Statistics Portugal announced that the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 27 in October, up from minus 29.5 in September. A year ago, the consumer confidence was minus 35.3.

The confidence indicator on manufacturing sector rose to minus 18.6 in October from minus 20.7 in September. A year earlier, the indicator was minus 13.6.
 
In October, services confidence increased to minus 4.7 from minus 5.8 in September, while the confidence indicator on trade rose to minus 10.6 from minus 12.4.

Meanwhile, the economic sentiment indicator stood at minus 0.4 in October, up from minus 0.8 in September. A year ago, the indicator was minus 0.3.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index lost 712.23, or 3.1%, to 22,060.33, the lowest in almost two months. That was also the gauge's biggest one-day slide since June 22.

Edison retreated 4 cents, or 3.7%, to 1.05 Euros. The country's second-largest power generator forecast "flat" debt and profitability levels next year, after reporting third-quarter net income fell 31% to 81 million Euros.

Eni said in a statement Friday that "all decisions on the dividend lie primarily with the board of directors." Eni said it was clarifying comments by Chief Financial Officer Alessandro Bernini on a conference call Thursday. The shares lost 67 cents, or 3.8%, to 16.91 Euros.

Risanamento: Creditor banks want Claudio Calabi to be appointed chief executive officer for the Italian real estate company, Il Messaggero reported. Intesa Sanpaolo will nominate two members of Risanamento's 11 member board, while UniCredit SpA, Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA and Banco Popolare SC will nominate one member each, the newspaper said. Calabi is CEO of Il Sole 24 Ore SpA (S24 IM). Risanamento shares surged 3.8 cents, or 9.4%, to 44.4 cents, Il Sole stock retreated 6.25 cents, or 2.9%, to 2.09 Euros.

Telecom Italia Telefonica Chief Operating Officer Julio Linares said the company is in final discussions with Telecom Italia over the possible purchase of Hansenet Telekommunikation GmbH. Linares spoke to reporters Friday in Seville, Spain. Telecom Italia, Italy's biggest telephone company, declined 4.1 cents, or 3.7%, to 1.08 Euros.

GREECE

In Athens, the Athex Composite finished the trading day Friday and the week at 2,686.21, only the second bourse in Europe to manage any gains; the Athex making 0.62% Friday.

Monday, the General Secretariat of the National Statistical Service of Greece announced that the trade deficit stood at Eur 1.86 billion in August, narrowing from Eur 2.56 billion in July. A year earlier, the trade deficit was Eur 3.3 billion.

Exports decreased 14% year-on-year to Eur 979.6 million in August, while imports dropped 36.4% to Eur 2.84 billion.

On a monthly basis, exports and imports dropped by 25.7% and 26.9%, respectively in August.

Greece said on Monday it will extend the suspension of a new tax on gaming winnings and start talks on the measure, which had met strong opposition from sales agents of the country's betting monopoly OPAP.

The law, which slaps a 10% tax on net winnings from OPAP's games, was passed in July by the country's previous conservative government and was due to go into effect on Oct. 21 after a first suspension of one month.

But the new socialist government, which won an Oct. 4 snap election, said it will put off the measure once again.

"The finance minister will as soon as possible submit to Parliament an amendment to suspend the problematic clauses on the taxation of gaming winnings," the Finance Ministry said in a statement.

The ministry said it would soon begin consultations to seek a rational and fair solution on gaming taxation, but did not say whether it would reintroduce a tax-free threshold for lottery winnings, which OPAP agents are asking for.

The taxation measure, which had been agreed in a bid to help contain Greece's ballooning budget deficit, led to sharp losses in the company's shares. Sales agents were concerned it would discourage punters from reinvesting their profit, hurting sales. 
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsA sudden sell-off, late in the session, condemned the London market to its biggest weekly decline since early March.

As investors reappraised Thursday's US GDP data, reacted to news that consumer sentiment had slipped this month, and squared positions on the last trading day of October, the FTSE 100 fell 93.17 points, or 1.8%, to 5,044.55.

That left the blue-chip index down 3.8% on the week. The last time it fell by more than that was the week ending March 6, when it dropped 7.82%. Elsewhere, the FTSE 250 lost 76.7 points, or 0.8%, to 8,885.77.

Traders said they expected markets to remain jittery ahead of next week's central bank meetings in the US, UK and Europe. These could provide clues as to when the interest rate tightening cycle might begin.

Mining stocks were the biggest drag on the London market. As the Dollar rallied, commodity prices went into reverse, hitting the likes of Xstrata, down 6.8% to 882½p, Vedanta, off 5.6% to £20.93, and Kazakhmys, which dipped 8.2% to £10.89.

Heavyweight oil stocks BP, 2.4% lower at 572.3p, and Royal Dutch Shell, 2.9% weaker at £17.60, also weighed on the index, as the crude price dropped $2 a barrel because of the stronger Dollar. Drug company Shire managed to buck the weak trend, rising 4.7% to £10.72 after third-quarter results topped City forecasts thanks to higher sales of its attention deficit disorder drugs.

Retailers also closed higher after John Lewis reported a sixth consecutive week of rising sales. Next, which reports results next week, rose 1.1% to £17.95, while Marks and Spencer, which is also reporting, firmed 0.7% to 342½p.

Lloyds Banking Group added 1.2% to 87.03p as analysts upgraded in the wake of Thursday's statement from the bank, which eased fears about an EU-mandated break-up of the part-nationalised lender.

Among the mid caps, Yell, the heavily indebted directories group, added 4.3% to 51¼p on news that it needed acceptances from just two more of its lenders to push through its comprehensive refinancing plan.

Soco International fell 6.5% to £12.92 after Citigroup cut its rating on the oil exploration and production company to "sell", citing valuation.

National Express improved 1.2% to 325p even though its biggest shareholder, Spain's Cosmen family, accused the bus and train operator of lacking a strategy after it abruptly ended takeover talks with Stagecoach, down 1.3% to 144.8p.

Meridian Petroleum, an oil and gas explorer with production assets in Louisiana, was in focus on Friday on news of a placing that brought in Imperial Energy founder Peter Levine, writes Masa Serdarevic.

The company's shares gained 39.1% to close at 64p after it announced the £7m placing, which was priced at a significant discount at 25p.

Meridian will change its name to President Petroleum and Mr Levine is to emerge with a 29.9% stake.

US oil explorer Nostra Terra jumped 32% to 1.81p on news that its Boxberger Well in Kansas is commercially viable.

Uranium explorer Forte Energy was up 11.6% to 10p after positive initial results from its Bir En Nar and Bir Moghrein uranium projects in Mauritania, West Africa.

Areva, the France-based nuclear energy company, has agreed to form a joint venture with Forte to fully develop the sites if a minimum 60m-80m Pounds of uranium is discovered within the next two years.

The industry support services specialist Jarvis lost 9% to close at 15¼p on news that the offer talks it announced in September had ended without an agreed deal.

White Young Green, the construction consultancy, fell 10.6% to 10¾p after weak full-year results. In addition, its lenders agreed to convert £50m of debt into new shares.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Tokyo stocks rose Friday, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average reclaiming the 10,000 mark after better-than-expected US gross domestic product figures spurred a rally complemented by buying in select shares that had already priced in disappointing corporate earnings reports from such bellwethers as Hitachi and NEC.

The Nikkei 225 rise was buoyed by a reversal in most of the factors that sent shares down sharply the prior day, including broad buying in most other Asian stock bourses, higher overnight gold and crude prices, and a modest rally in the Dollar against the Yen.

The Nikkei 225 rose 143.64 points, or 1.5%, to 10,034.74. The Topix index of all Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues also rose 12.41 points, or 1.4%, to 894.67, with 30 of 33 subindexes closing in positive territory.

Trading volume was modest, totaling just under 1.8 billion shares.

With Japan's fiscal year half earnings reporting season hitting full stride, several companies' results made significant share price impressions, including Hitachi and NEC, which submitted dismal numbers on slack corporate and consumer spending.

Hitachi said its net loss for the July-September period widened to Y50.5 billion from the Y17.3 billion it made a year ago, while NEC swung to a net loss of Y9.75 billion, down from the Y1.28 billion profit it made during the same period a year prior. Both shares gained ground, however, with Hitachi adding 2.1% to Y298, and NEC adding 3.1% to Y264.

Market observers said that most of the bad expectations had already been priced in, despite, in the case of Hitachi, comments made by its executive vice president that no one expects the company to make a quick recovery.

Shares of Sharp also rose 2.5% to Y991 after the electronics maker said late Thursday it bounced back into the black in its July-September period after three straight unprofitable quarters, helped by a rebound in demand for liquid crystal display panels. Its net profit reached Y7.4 billion, more than double the profit it made in the same period a year ago. The firm also kept its full fiscal year forecast unchanged.

Shares of Panasonic, which continues to negotiate its takeover bid for Sanyo Electric, rose 3.0% to Y1,292. The firm was slated to report earnings after the market close.

Several major industrials outperformed the benchmark. Nippon Steel rose 4.4% to Y353, Toyota Motor added 2.5% to Y3,660, and energy developer Inpex climbed 1.9% to Y760,000.

Japan Airlines returned to the headlines, as Japan's transport minister and task force in charge of rehabilitating the struggling airline said Thursday evening that the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp., a new government-led group, will spearhead its turnaround.

A market analyst at Japanese brokerage noted, however, that the transfer decision may only mean the job of restructuring JAL has been postponed, and that any trading in JAL shares will most likely be based on speculation for the time being. JAL shares closed up 1.7% at Y117.

A plethora of earnings results continued to roll in after the market close on the busiest reporting day of the season, including those of Mitsubishi Heavy, Sony, Toshiba, All Nippon Airways and Tokyo Electron, among others.

For the week, the Nikkei lost 2.4%, and closed out October with a loss of 1.0%. Year-to-date, however, the index remains up 14.4%.

December Nikkei 225 futures ended up 130 points, or 1.3%, at 10,010 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean shares reversed early gains to end lower Friday despite better-than-expected US and local economic data, and Samsung Electronics' robust third-quarter earnings.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, ended down 5.16 points, or 0.3%, at 1580.69. It has declined 5.5% this month.

The main index rose to as high as 1605.12 in the morning due to the upbeat US first estimate on third-quarter gross domestic product. But it soon lost steam and remained weak even after Samsung Electronics reported its third-quarter earnings and South Korea's industrial production in September showed a larger-than-expected 11.0% rise from a year earlier.

Instead of boosting sentiment, "those surprising numbers seemed to have hiked caution that (earnings and economic) growth driven by various countries' stimulus programs might have peaked" in the third quarter, said Bae Sung-young, an analyst at Hyundai Securities.

Next week, the Kospi will likely trade in a boxed range, with support tipped at the 120-day moving average around 1530 and resistance at the 60-day moving average around 1630, said analysts.

Domestic institutions offloaded a net KRW437.8 billion worth of stocks, while foreigners were net buyers of shares worth KRW128.8 billion.

Market analysts expect the Kospi to continue its tepid moves for the rest of this year until investors regain confidence about the sustainability of earnings and economic growth.

Samsung Electronics added 0.7% to KRW723,000, after posting a record quarterly net profit of KRW3.72 trillion in the third quarter, up from KRW1.22 trillion a year ago.

South Korea's biggest company by market capitalization cautiously expects its profit in 2010 to improve from this year, but said the continued appreciation of the Korean currency and higher marketing expenses in the last three months of the year will weigh on its current quarter results.

But other technology stocks and car makers retreated as the US Dollar sharply declined against the Korean won, said analysts.

Hynix Semiconductor fell 1.9% to KRW18,050 and LG Electronics lost 0.9% to KRW112,000. Hyundai Motor fell 4.8% to KRW109,500 and Kia Motors dropped 1.1% to KRW18,000.

But Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering rose 2.6% to KRW16,000 on a local media report that the company might receive a $300 million order to build five oil carriers from Angola's state-run oil company.

HONG KONG

Gains on Wall Street overnight stemming from an optimistic outlook driven by stronger-than-expected US gross domestic product data helped Hong Kong shares end higher Friday, with financial and energy companies leading the gains.

The Hang Seng Index rose 487.88 points, or 2.3%, to 21,752.87 after a selloff in the last three sessions. It traded between 21,720.41 and 21,953.59 during the session. The index lost 3.7% on the week but is up 3.8% so far this month.

Turnover fell to HK$76.35 billion from HK$80.81 billion.

Analysts said they expect the city's benchmark index to remain volatile in the coming sessions because of uncertainties about the pace of the global economic recovery. All but two blue-chip companies posted gains Friday.

Chinese financial companies were among the day's biggest gainers after reporting sharply higher quarterly profits.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China jumped 3.5% to HK$6.29 after the world's largest lender by market value reported Thursday a bigger-than-expected 19% rise in third-quarter net profit as a pickup in China's economic growth continued to drive demand for loans.

Bank of China rose 5.8% to HK$4.58 after it said Thursday its third-quarter net profit rose 19% as strong lending growth boosted its interest income.

Energy companies also gained on rising oil prices. The light, sweet crude contract for December rose US$2.41 to US$79.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange overnight as the pace of the US economic recovery quickened.

Cnooc surged 4.5% to HK$12.02, while PetroChina ended up 0.5% to HK$9.60.

CHINA

China's shares ended higher Friday following Wall Street's overnight gains, but turnover remained relatively light as some funds were diverted to Shenzhen's new Nasdaq-style ChiNext market in the hope of quick profits.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended up 1.2%, or 35.38 points, at 2995.85, off an intraday high of 3027.13.

The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.0%, or 10.02 points, to 1053.97.

Analysts said the Shanghai index is likely to consolidate between 2900 and 3100 next week, trading near the high end of the band if overseas markets perform strongly.

For the week, the Shanghai index lost 3.6% as China's banking regulator said it plans to tighten rules on personal credit. Loans exceeding 300,000 yuan will be given directly to the counterparty of the borrower rather than the borrower, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said Oct. 28.

The index fell 6.1% in the third quarter, the worst performer among the largest emerging markets, as a slump in new lending in July dragged the gauge down 22% in August. China stocks remain "a bright spot" and are set to rise by 30% through 2010 as the nation's domestic demand increase, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report Thursday.

Tsingtao Brewery, the country's second-biggest brewer by volume, rose 5.2% to 32.13 yuan, the most this month. The company said third-quarter net income almost doubled to 615 million yuan.

Jiangxi Copper, the nation's biggest producer of the metal, rallied 2.4% to 38.33 yuan. Zhongjin Gold gained 2.1% to 56.28 yuan. PetroChina Co., the world's second most valuable company, added 1.3% to 13.31 yuan.

Baoshan Iron & Steel, China's biggest steelmaker, gained 1.3% to 6.84 yuan, its first gain in four days. The company reported third-quarter net income rose 6.7% from a year earlier to 3.04 billion yuan. That matches the mean estimate of three analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

Beijing Gehua CATV Network, which builds and operates cable television networks, gained 10% to 12.53 yuan, after third-quarter profit rose 27% to 102.86 million yuan.

Beiqi Foton Motors), a Beijing-based automaker, climbed 4.3% to 18.51 yuan, after forecasting 2009 annual net income may rise more than 150%.

Liaoning SG Automotive Group, an auto parts manufacturer, gained 10% to 10.49 yuan. Third-quarter profit increased 51% from a year earlier to 48.4 million yuan, according to a statement to the Shanghai stock exchange Thursday.

ICBC and Bank of China gained more than 2%. Tsingtao Brewery Co. rose 5.2% after net income almost doubled. Jiangxi Copper Co. and Zhongjin Gold Corp. climbed more than 2% on higher commodity prices after the US emerged from recession - supposedly!

Friday's focus was on ChiNext, whose stunning debut probably doesn't bode well for the main board's performance next week as more investors may be enticed to channel funds to it.

Trading on ChiNext began Friday with all its 28 debutants posting strong gains.

The collective debut was so spectacular that by the midday break, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which hosts the startup board, had ordered the temporary trading suspension of all 28 stocks due to the bourse's anti-speculation rules.

Chengdu Geeya Technology led the gainers on the new board, ending up 210% at CNY35.00. The other 27 stocks rose between 76% and 195%.

Turnover on ChiNext totaled CNY21.91 billion, compared with CNY120.09 billion in Shanghai. Shanghai's turnover Friday was slightly above Thursday's CNY120.00 billion and Wednesday's CNY117.98 billion, but below Tuesday's CNY143.77 billion.

Companies listed in Shanghai also rose across the board, tracking overnight gains in the US, where stronger-than-expected third-quarter gross domestic product data sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.05%.

Among the most actively traded stocks in Shanghai were China Merchants Bank, which ended up 4.2% at CNY17.77, China Minsheng Banking Corp., which rose 2.0% to CNY7.68, and Zijin Mining Group, which gained 1.2% to CNY9.10.

Sinopec, Asia's largest refiner by capacity, advanced 1.7% to HK$6.74 after it said its third-quarter net profit more than doubled to CNY16.55 billion from CNY7.39 billion a year earlier.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stocks fell 0.21% to end at a fresh one-month low on Friday, as investors sold technology shares such as TSMC on concerns over weaker a outlook in the fourth quarter.

The main TAIEX share index ended down 15.61 points to 7,340.08, wrapping up the week with a 4.08% fall and reaching its lowest level since Sept. 28.

Concerns over a weaker fourth quarter prompted investors to book profit in TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, which gave up early gains to end 0.5% lower.

Turnover was thin at T$101 billion ($3.1 billion), compared with Thursday's T$145 billion and the daily average of T$112 billion this week.

Analysts said market sentiment remained fragile after Thursday's tumble and investors were cautious of earnings.

Chip designer Mediatek, the second-most active stock by turnover, dropped 1.38%.

After the market closed, Mediatek posted better-than-expected third quarter earnings but gave a weaker outlook for the current quarter.

Taiwan stocks fell to their lowest closing level in one month and logged their worst single day percentage fall in 3-½ months on Thursday after foreign investors unloaded a net T$22 billion of Taiwan stocks, the biggest net sale in more than one year.

The United States is one of the island's largest export markets to which Taiwan provides many of its electronic gadgets, and investors look closely at the US economic outlook before making decisions about the island's tech companies.

PC shares outperformed the main board as investors bet on increasing demand in the fast approaching holiday season in North America.

Compal Electronics and netbook PC pioneer Asustek rose 3.9% and 2.01%, respectively, after both said they expected shipments to climb about 10% in the fourth quarter.

The computer and peripheral equipment sub-index finished up 1.13%.

LCD shares such as AU Optronics traded flat after larger rival Samsung Electronics cautioned against a profit decline in the current three months.

But small LCD panel maker Hannstar Display jumped more than 6% after a local newspaper reported that it had returned to profitability in the third quarter, and expected utilisation rates to remain at 100%.

In non-tech sectors, construction shares extended losses from Thursday after local newspapers reported that more government officials had voiced concerns over skyrocketing housing prices and urged banks to tighten rules on mortgage lending.

Real estate developer Farglory had fallen more than 8% over the past two sessions, lagging the main index's 2.58% fall during the same period.

THE PHILIPPINES

Share prices climbed on Friday after the US market rallied to its best performance in three months, analysts said.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index gained 1.63% or 46.17 points to 2,908.50, while the all share index rose by 1.22% or 22.05 points to 1,828.37.

A total of 2.44 billion shares worth P5.35 billion were traded with a net foreign buying of P595 million. Advancers led decliners 106 to 21 while 56 stocks did not move.

Mining and oil shares surged by 4.7% or 397.73 to 8,857.55, while financials jumped by 2.55% or 15.92 points to 638.90.

The service sector rallied by 1.3% or 19.13 points to 1,486.19, while industrial climbed by 1.21% or 51.63 points to 4,293.27.

Holding firms were up by 1.07% or 16.69 points to 1,571.28, while property shares gained 0.99% or 10.33 points to 1,051.65.

Most blue chips closed higher.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. gained 2.5% or a peso to P41, while Andrew Tan-led Megaworld Corp. added 1.31% or two centavos to P1.54.

Index heavyweight Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. climbed by 1.16% or P30 to P2,595, while Manila Electric Co. gained 1.07% or P2 to P188.

Ayala Land, Inc. meanwhile did not move at P10.50.

SINGAPORE

Singapore shares closed 0.71% higher Friday, ending three days of losses, after Wall Street rebounded on news the US economy posted its strongest growth in two years, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index advanced 18.82 points to 2,651.13 on a volume of 1.78 billion shares worth S$1.66 billion. Gainers outnumbered losers 286 to 207, with 879 issues unchanged.

While the index ended higher, it was still below its session peak of 2,676.95.

Among the banks, United Overseas Bank (UOB) closed up 2.15% at S$17.08 as it outperformed the main index after beating forecasts for its third quarter earnings.

United Overseas Bank said on Friday it was ready to seize growth opportunities, as a recovery in the Singapore economy helped it post a better-than-expected 5.3% rise in quarterly profit.

UOB has been the most conservative among the three Singapore banks, shrinking its balance sheet and taking bigger loan losses than rival Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, whose assets have grown to overtake UOB as city-state's second-biggest bank.

"Three months back, we indicated that 'maximum fear' is behind us. Now, it appears that the worst for the economy is behind us as well," UOB's CEO Wee Ee Cheong said in a statement.

"Beyond the crisis, we will continue to selectively seize growth opportunities and work towards achieving greater synergies across our regional network."

The outlook for Singapore banks, like their Asian peers, is improving with bad debts peaking for most banks due to a recovery in regional economies and strong capital markets boosting income from trading and fees.

DBS Bank was up 14 cents to S$13.06 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp climbed one cent to S$7.66.

Singapore Telecommunications dipped four cents to S$2.94, Singapore Airlines rose four cents to S$13.60 and CapitaLand was up six cents to S$4.14.

Singapore's total employment has grown for the first time this year. The Ministry of Manpower (MOM) said that it grew by 15,400 in the third quarter.

Total employment had shrunk by 6,200 in the first quarter and 7,700 in the second.

Nevertheless, the gains were significantly lower than 55,700 in the third quarter of last year.

Services employment rose by 13,400 in the third quarter, significantly higher than the gains in the first two quarters. Construction continued to add workers.

Manufacturing shed workers for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, MOM said that the decline was substantially lower than in the first two quarters this year.

According to preliminary estimates, 2,000 workers were retrenched and 200 contracts were terminated prematurely, resulting in a total of 2,200 workers made redundant in the third quarter of 2009.

MALAYSIA

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended the week on a positive note Friday after four days of decline on investor support for selected heavyweights and lower-liners, dealers said.

A dealer said banking and financial stocks saw heavy trading ahead of the release of banking and financial statistics for September later on Friday.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) added 1.48 points, or 0.119%, to close at 1,243.23, pushed by gains mostly in CIMB Group, Maybank and AMMB Holdings.

The FBM KLCI opened 4.36 points higher at 1,246.11 from Thursday's closing at 1,241.75.

It moved between 1,242.73 and 1,248.75 throughout the day.

The FBM Emas Index rose 23.73 points to 8,336.73, FBM Top 100 increased 17.39 points to 8,130.68, FBM 70 jumped 47.75 points to 8,149.88 and the FBM ACE Index advanced 46.59 points to 4,305.69.

The Finance Index surged 94.03 points to 10,535.17.

The Industrial Index eased 2.21 points to 2,667.95 and the Plantation Index slipped 24.45 points to 6,088.08.

Gainers led losers by 450 to 211 while 239 counters were unchanged and 374 untraded.

Turnover rose to 999.004 million shares worth RM1.325 billion from 932.964 million shares worth RM1.301 billion Thursday.

THAILAND

Thailand's stock index lost its early gain to end down 0.7% as telecom shares fell as an auction of third-generation mobile phone licences looks likely to be delayed yet again.

True Corp, which owns number three mobile phone operator True Move, dropped 3.9%, leader Advanced Info Service lost 2.3% and second-ranked Total Access Communication eased 0.6%.

Foreign investors were net sellers of THB1.06 billion worth of Thai stocks Friday out of a total of THB18.88 billion traded, the Stock Exchange of Thailand said.

INDONESIA

The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) at the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) on Friday afternoon closed 56.49 points or 2.41% higher at 2,400.52.

Market volatility was predicted to be still very high and the index certainty toward a more logical index also can be seen in the few days to come.

Stock transactions occurred as many as 66,382 times and the number of shares that changed hands reached 3.351 billion at a total value of Rp4.234 trillion. As many as 150 shares rose, 26 fell and 41 shares did not move.

Shares that encouraged the index to strengthen were PTBA which increased Rp1,050, Indo Tambangraya which went up Rp1.800, United Tractor which gained Rp650 to Rp15.400, Bank Mandiri which rose Rp150 to Rp4.725, BRI  which gained Rp200 to Rp7,350, and Indofood which increased Rp150 to Rp3.025.

INDIA

India's benchmark stock index fell for a fifth day, the longest losing streak in 11 months, after Reliance Industries  and Bharti Airtel  posted profits that fell short of analysts' forecasts.

Reliance Industries, India's most valuable company, dropped 3.4% after it reported lower profit for the fourth- straight quarter. Bharti Airtel, the largest mobile-phone company, sank 6.1% as it reported that earnings growth slowed for the ninth quarter.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, lost 156.44, or 1%, to 15,896.28, extending the month's decline to 7.2%, the lowest monthly drop in a year. The gauge was also the worst performer in Asia this month. Stocks have gained more than 30% since mid-May when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's ruling coalition was re-elected on the promise of reviving the economy.

The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange lost 0.8% to 4,711.70. The BSE 200 Index slid 0.7% to 1,962.88. Markets will be closed for a public holiday on Nov. 2.

Reliance Industries, the energy explorer battling a lawsuit over natural gas sales, fell 3.4% to 1,931.15 Rupees, its lowest since Sept. 3. The company's net income in the three months ended Sept. 30 fell 6.6% to 38.5 billion Rupees ($815 million).

Bharti Airtel, the Indian operator that failed to merge with MTN Group , sank 6.1% to 292.85 Rupees, its lowest since March 20. Bharti's net income increased 13% to 23.2 billion Rupees for the three months ended Sept. 30, from 20.5 billion Rupees a year earlier, the New Delhi-based company said Friday. That compared with the 23.5 billion-Rupee median of 31 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Bharti and closest rival Reliance Communications  are the nation's worst-performing benchmark stocks this year as competitors including Japan's NTT DoCoMo Inc. sign up more callers. Bharti has lost 18% this year and Reliance Communications has retreated 28% compared with a 65% advance for the Sensex.

Bharti director Rajan Bharti Mittal said Thursday consolidation is inevitable because there are "too many" operators.

Tokyo-based NTT DoCoMo, Japan's largest wireless operator, is luring customers with pay-per-second calls and Reliance is offering plans with call rates as low as 1 US cent a minute.

Reliance Communications plunged 7.3% to 175.85 Rupees, its lowest since March 31. Idea Cellular , an Indian wireless carrier partly owned by Malaysia's Axiata Group Bhd., fell 6.4% to 52.05 Rupees, its lowest since April 2, while Tata Teleservices Maharashtra  declined 3.3% to 26.45 Rupees, a five-month low.

Tata Power, India's biggest private electricity generator, plunged 4.6%, the most since Aug 7, to 1,338.85 Rupees after it reported a 28% decline in second-quarter profit as sales fell. Net income dropped to 1.8 billion Rupees from 2.5 billion Rupees a year earlier, the Mumbai-based utility said in a statement to the Bombay Stock Exchange Friday. The median estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was a profit of 2.4 billion Rupees.

DLF, India's largest developer, retreated 1.4% to 370.25 Rupees after it reported a fifth consecutive quarter of declining profit as demand for offices and shops lagged behind a revival in home purchases in the world's second-fastest growing major economy.

Bank of India, a state-owned lender, fell 6.7% to 333.45 Rupees, its lowest in two months. Analysts downgraded the stock's rating after the company posted a 58% drop in earnings.

Bank of India's stock rating was cut to "underperform" from "outperform" at Macquarie Group , and to "hold" from "buy" at JM Financial Institutional Securities.

Indian stocks, the worst performers in Asia this month, may be hurt by a six-fold increase in the pace of inflation, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research said.

Inflation may accelerate to 8.7% by March from 1.5% currently, BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Jyotivardhan Jaipuria wrote in a report Thursday. Stock markets have posted negative returns in five of the seven times since 1990 when inflation quickened, he added.

The Sensex has fallen 5% since Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao increased the statutory liquidity ratio and raised the inflation forecast on Oct. 27.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market staged a moderate recovery on Friday after stronger-than-expected US gross domestic product data triggered an impressive bounce in US equities, commodities and the Australian Dollar.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed up 68.5 points, or 1.5%, at 4643.2, after hitting an intraday high of 4673.6. Volume was inflated by Thursday's options expiry.

While Friday's rise ended a four-day losing streak, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.1% for the month, its first monthly fall since February. The index fell 4.4% for the week, its biggest weekly fall since March.

Cyclical sectors outperformed, with Rio Tinto up 4.6% to A$63.78, National Australia Bank up 2.8% to A$29.85, QBE Insurance up 2.9% to A$22.77 and Woodside up 2.2% to A$47.70.

Defensives took a breather, with Telstra up 0.3% at A$3.32, CSL down 1.3% at A$31.50, Foster's down 1.1% at A$5.49 and AGL Energy down 1.3% at A$13.87.

Banks may have had the bulk of their run, RBS' Froggatt said, with resources likely to take over the lead as investors bet on an economic recovery.

Macquarie Infrastructure Group jumped 5.9% to A$1.445 after announcing plans to split its portfolio of roads into two separately listed entities, as flagged at its full-year results in August.

Macquarie Group rose 1.5% to A$50.00 after bouncing to A$51.25 on news that its first half profit beat market expectations and its own forecasts. Macquarie said it expects a similar profit result in the second half, which, if achieved, would result in nearly 10% on-year profit growth.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares were trading higher late Friday as investor sentiment got a lift after a rally in offshore markets and some positive commentary from different companies at their annual general meetings.

The NZX-50 ended up 0.6% or 20 points at 3215.62.

Casino operator Sky City added 2.1% to NZ$3.47. Earlier Friday the company said its total underlying group revenue was up 4.7% in the first quarter and that it is on track to achieve double-digit growth in its current fiscal year.

Construction company Fletcher Building added 1.2% to NZ$8.32. On Friday, Statistics New Zealand said the number of residential building permits issued in New Zealand rose in September from August, providing further evidence the country's emergence from recession is gaining momentum.

New Zealand power company TrustPower gained 0.3% to NZ$7.57, after reporting a higher first-half net profit.

Retailer Briscoe Group ended flat at NZ$1.20. On Friday the company said its third-quarter group sales rose 8.3% on year and it is optimistic about its second-half result.

Auckland Airport ended up 2.5% at NZ$ 2.02. On Thursday the company reiterated its guidance for fiscal 2010 and said there were positive signs emerging in some markets.

In the other direction, the higher New Zealand Dollar continued to weigh on export stocks.

Medical devices maker Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ended flat at NZ$3.10.

The index was weighed down slightly be bellwether Telecom, which shed 1.9% to NZ$2.54. Brokers said it was likely some profit-taking after the stock gained some ground Thursday.
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesPrices for crude oil, base metals and soft commodities were choppy this week as markets took their lead from fluctuations in equities and the Dollar.

The boost to risk appetite from news that the US economy had escaped recession in the third quarter was tempered by concerns that rises in oil prices could jeopardise recovery.

Crude oil prices fell on Friday with Nymex December West Texas Intermediate sinking $1.47 to $78.40 a barrel, down 2.6% over the week, while ICE December Brent lost $1.44 to $76.60 a barrel, down 2.9% over the week.

Saudi Arabia's decision to abandon WTI-based pricing for crude sales to the US was seen as likely to strengthen the kingdom's grip on global oil, particularly if it influenced other producers and customers to start using the Argus Sour Crude index (ASCI) as a benchmark for pricing.

The New York Mercantile Exchange moved swiftly in response to the Saudi decision by announcing plans to launch a cash-settled futures contract tracking the ASCI by the end of the year and another contract for physical delivery of sour crude in the near future.

Gold fell 0.9% to $1,035 a troy ounce on Friday, down 1.8% this week, under pressure from outflows from exchange-traded funds and a modest recovery in the Dollar.

Sugar prices moved lower even as India's government tried to alleviate supply problems in the world's largest sugar consumer by promising higher prices to farmers. Over the week, ICE March raw sugar lost 2.8% to 22.47 cents a Pound, while Liffe December white sugar fell 1.9% to $572.2 a tonne.

Cocoa prices fell as this year's harvest stepped up in Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer. Over the week, ICE December cocoa slipped 1.8% to $3,303 a tonne, while Liffe March cocoa lost 1.9% to £2,165 a tonne.

Copper lost 2.5% to $6,485 a tonne this week amid concerns about demand weakness outside Asia.

However, the Baltic Dry index continued its recovery with the benchmark for freight costs for iron ore, coal and grains up 2% to 3,103 points, helped by rising demand from China for iron ore and coal.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Dollar and the Yen advanced strongly this week as concerns over the sustainability of the recent rally in global asset markets stoked haven demand for both currencies.

The Dollar started the week on the back foot, hitting a fresh 14-month low of $1.5061 against the Euro on Monday as a report in a newspaper published by the People's Bank of China recommended that the country diversify its massive foreign exchange reserves away from the US currency.

But selling pressure on the Dollar did not last long as equity markets dropped sharply amid nervousness that the removal of monetary policy accommodation by the world's central banks could halt the recent rally in risky assets.

The Dollar and Yen both rallied sharply as investors unwound carry trades, in which low-yielding currencies like the US and Japanese units are sold to fund the purchase of riskier, higher yielding assets, as risk aversion heightened ahead of US third-quarter gross domestic product data on Thursday.

But the Dollar's advance abated as asset markets stabilised when data showed that the US emerged from technical recession in the third quarter. Some analysts said that, while the relief rally in risky assets and Dollar selling after the report was understandable, they remained sceptical that such trends would prove sustainable.

Indeed, over the week, the Dollar rose 1.8% to $1.4735 against the Euro and 1.8% to SFr1.0267 against the Swiss franc.

The Dollar also advanced against commodity-linked currencies. Over the week, it rose 1.7% to $0.9058 against the Australian Dollar, 2.7% to C$1.0822 against the Canadian Dollar and 3.9% to $0.7233 against the New Zealand Dollar.

The Dollar also rose 2.5% to NKr5.6916 against the Norwegian krone, in spite of a rise in Norwegian interest rates.

The Norges Bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%, making it the first European central bank to tighten monetary policy since the onset of the financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the Yen managed to outperform the Dollar, rising 1.5% to Y90.75 over the week. The Yen also climbed 3.2% to Y133.76 against the Euro on the week and 3.1% to Y82.19 against the Australian Dollar.

The Yen's gains were less acute against the Pound, however, rising 0.3% to Y149.64 on the week as Sterling staged a comeback elsewhere after a shock fall in UK GDP at the end of last week. The Pound rose 1.2% to $1.6496 against the Dollar on the week and 3% to £0.8931 against the Euro

In South Africa, The Rand posted its biggest weekly drop in 3 1/2 months after the government said the budget deficit will soar and it will attempt to weaken the currency, while economic data showed the nation may still be in recession.

South Africa's currency lost 3.7% in the week to 7.7517 per Dollar by 4:52 p.m. in Johannesburg, from 7.4624 on Oct. 23. It was the steepest one-week slide since the five days ended July 10.

The US Dollar's weakness against the Euro and other European currencies overnight Thursday sent China's RMB marginally higher against the US unit late Friday afternoon.

But trading was quiet, and traders said they expected the central bank to continue to keep the yuan in a narrow range of CNY6.8250-CNY6.8350 against the US currency for the foreseeable future to support the country's economic recovery.

On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar ended at CNY6.8275 around 0930 GMT, down slightly from Thursday's close of CNY6.8280. It traded between CNY6.8274 and CNY6.8279.

The central bank set the central parity rate at 6.8281, down from 6.8285 Thursday. 
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's sovereign wealth fund has invested about half its $110bn of available capital in overseas stocks, mining, energy and real estate, earning returns that have been "not bad" so far, the head of the fund said on Wednesday.

But Lou Jiwei, chairman of China Investment Corp, warned that a "small bubble" had formed in global asset prices and said that the fund was focused on investments in commodity-related assets and real estate as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

"Our returns at the moment are not bad," Mr Lou told a conference in Beijing. "But I dare not say they will be good by the end of the year." CIC has made a rapid series of investments in commodity-related companies in recent months.

Mr Lou said that the moves were part of the fund's strategy to hedge against long-term inflation and the "likelihood that the value of major currencies will fall to a new equilibrium point".

He did not name a specific currency, but Chinese officials have repeatedly expressed concern over the stability of the US Dollar and the potential for US policies to precipitate a slide in its exchange rate.

CIC was established in September 2007 to earn better returns on a portion of the country's $2,273bn in foreign exchange reserves.

As the financial crisis worsened, two early investments - in US private equity group Blackstone and investment bank Morgan Stanley - plummeted and the fund switched its strategy to hold most of its funds in cash.

CIC decided global markets had stabilised by the second quarter of this year, and Mr Lou said the fund had invested about half the $110bn it had available for offshore investment.

CIC spent $4.8bn abroad in 2008, when the return on its global portfolio was a negative 2.1%.

Mr Lou on Wednesday repeatedly dismissed concerns CIC was making investments as part of Beijing's agenda to acquire control of global resource assets.

"The outside world is very suspicious of us, saying we have a national agenda. But our strategy is just one of long-term risk-adjusted returns, it is to make money," Mr Lou said.

His comments came as it emerged on Wednesday that CIC would invest up to $700m in Iron Mining International, a privately owned Hong Kong-registered company whose chief asset is a coveted mine in Mongolia.

According to people familiar with the matter, CIC has agreed to subscribe to a $500m convertible loan and could increase its investment by a further $200m.

Iron Mining is planning an initial public offering in Hong Kong next year, which could value the group at about $5bn.

Credit Suisse, which invested in Iron Mining in May 2007, advised the company on the CIC deal. Singapore's Temasek and Hopu Investment Management, a Beijing-based private equity fund, also invested a combined $300m in the group two years ago.

The deal came just a day after CIC announced plans to invest $500m to fund the expansion of a Canadian coal mining company in Mongolia. Last month, CIC bought an 11% stake in London-listed JSC KazMunaiGas Exploration Production. CIC also recently bought $1.9bn of debt from Bumi Resources, Indonesia's biggest coal producer, and paid $850m for a 15% stake in commodities shipping company Noble Group.

Mr Lou said on Wednesday that commodity investments were the fund's main focus because it wanted to take advantage of the China growth story and he repeatedly dismissed concerns that CIC was making investments as part of Beijing's strategic agenda to acquire control of global resource assets.

"The outside world is very suspicious of us, saying we have a national agenda, but our strategy is just one of long-term risk-adjusted returns, it is to make money," Mr Lou said. "I don't care how many tonnes of oil we ship home, I care about the level of the stock price."

CIC was established in September 2007 to earn better returns on a portion of the country's $2,273bn in foreign exchange reserves.

As the financial crisis worsened, its two earliest investments - in US private equity group Blackstone and investment bank Morgan Stanley - plummeted and the fund switched its strategy to hold most of its funds in cash.

CIC decided that global markets had stabilised by the second quarter of this year and has now invested about half the $110bn it had available for offshore investment, Mr Lou said.

That means the fund has invested this year nearly nine times the $4.8bn it spent abroad in 2008, when the return on its global portfolio was negative 2.1%.

In spite of CIC's explicit focus on commodity investments, the bulk of the fund's offshore investments are allocated to external managers and invested in public securities markets, Mr Lou said.

"We don't have enough experience in managing a portfolio of financial products but we area able to entrust our assets to external managers with good investment performance," Mr Lou said. "Of course, as we gain more experience we will gradually increase the proportion that we invest ourselves."

***********************************

Two of China's largest banks on Thursday revealed a rise in quarterly net profits on the back of an unprecedented government-directed expansion of new loans.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's largest bank by market capitalisation, said net profits in the third quarter rose 19% to Rmb33.6bn ($4.9bn) compared with the same period last year.

Bank of China, the country's third-largest lender, recorded a 19% rise in net profits to Rmb21.1bn over the same period.

Late last week, China Construction Bank, the country's second-largest lender by market value and assets, also reported a rise in net profit of 18.6% to Rmb30.3bn.

Chinese banks extended a total of Rmb8,670bn in new loans in the first nine months of this year, 75% more than in all of 2008, after the government ordered the state-controlled sector to flood the economy with credit to ward off the financial crisis.

The volume of new loans fell significantly in July and August but picked up again in September to hit Rmb517bn for the month.

But the huge expansion in new loans has not translated into correspondingly larger profits for the banks after the government slashed lending rates faster than deposit rates at the end of last year in response to the financial crisis.

Most Chinese banks still rely on the spread between government-set deposit and lending rates for about 80% of their income.

The flood of credit has raised concerns that a new crop of future bad loans could be being created by the banks' rush to lend.

China's banking regulator said on Thursday that the bad loan ratio of the country's commercial banks dropped to 1.66% at the end of September from 2.42% at the start of the year.

But the regulator has repeatedly warned about possible future deterioration in asset quality and ordered banks to lend at a "reasonable" pace.

For the nine months to the end of September, all three of China's largest banks reported net profit gains in the low single digits, indicating acceleration in profit growth in the third quarter.

ICBC's new loans in the third quarter more than doubled to Rmb144bn from Rmb65bn a year earlier.

BoC issued Rmb388bn worth of new loans in the same period, more than eight times the Rmb48bn it lent a year earlier.

***********************************

When China Investment Corp invested $5bn in Morgan Stanley in late 2007 the US bank was widely seen as having stolen a march on its investment banking rivals.

With China's $200bn sovereign wealth fund sitting high on the share register, Morgan Stanley surely now had the contacts to help unlock doors in a country which foreign groups find difficult to navigate.

However, in recent months it has been anything but smooth sailing for the bank's China-related business.

This week the Financial Times revealed that the bank has been dragged in to a court battle in provincial China over a hedging contract with a local juice company.

Last month, a Hong Kong court convicted a former Morgan Stanley investment banker for insider trading involving information he obtained while advising Citic Resources, China's largest state-owned investment group.

Earlier this year, the US Securities and Exchange Commission started a probe into the bank's former China property head over possible violations of the US foreign corrupt practices act relating to mainland property deals.

To cap a torrid few months, Morgan Stanley this week lost its proud record of never having advised on an aborted initial public offering in Asia when China's Excellence Real Estate shelved its $1bn Hong Kong listing.

In the cut-throat world of investment banking, Morgan Stanley's misfortune is being milked by rivals, each desperate for further advances in China. "They are getting their come-uppance," says one rival.

Morgan Stanley counters that the bank's brand in China remains strong.

The bank self-reported both the insider trading case and the property deals to the authorities.

Morgan Stanley points to its involvement in a string of mainland deals this year. It has been hired to advise on several large IPOs in Hong Kong of both state-owned and private mainland companies, including the $5.1bn listing of Metallurgical Corp of China.

According to Dealogic, the data provider, the bank is second in the 2009 league tables for mainland companies' Hong Kong IPOs, narrowly behind UBS.

Morgan Stanley is also the top overseas bank this year in China-related mergers and acquisitions, according to Dealogic, advising on $12.5bn of deals.

Like its global rivals, Morgan Stanley is still building its onshore China presence, although it claims to be further ahead than many of its competitors.

The China business is led by Wei Sun Christianson, who ranks among the most trusted sherpas of John Mack, Morgan Stanley's chief executive, and is one of Beijing's best-connected bankers. Ms Christianson told the FT that the bank was committed to building the broadest franchise in China. "Given our business momentum, the successes we have had serving clients, and the opportunities we see ahead, for us China has never been more important or more exciting," she added.

Over the past 14 years, Morgan Stanley has steadily acquired myriad licences required to operate on the mainland and recently opened a commercial banking branch in Beijing.

It acquired a small domestic bank in 2006, a feat that no rival has since managed.

However, one big gap in its armoury is a licence to trade domestic securities and advise on local IPOs.

UBS and Credit Suisse are among the handful of global banks to possess them, while even arch-rival Goldman Sachs managed to strike a partnership with a local securities group.

Morgan Stanley owns a passive 34% stake in China International Capital Corp, the country's top securities group.

According to people familiar with the matter, in recent months it has tried and failed to divest the CICC holding. It will need to before it can establish a fresh securities joint venture that it can control.

***********************************

China's biggest adversary in this year's iron ore price talks is China.

The nation's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package has sparked record imports of the steelmaking material and prices may jump 14% next year to the second-highest on record, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

China's steelmakers such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the biggest, have made the country the world's largest iron ore buyer and steelmaker, accounting for half of global output. The surge in demand for the ore may now squeeze earnings.

Vale SA, Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton , the world's three-largest producers, are boosting shipments from mines in Brazil and Australia as mills in China, Japan, Europe and the US restart furnaces to meet demand for steel used in cars, construction and washing machines. China overtook Japan as the world's largest buyer in 2003 and now accounts for more than half of the seaborne trade, worth about $160 billion last year.

The price of annual contracts for Australian iron ore fines, a benchmark grade of the ore, may climb to about $70 a metric ton, according to the average estimate of 11 analysts in the survey. Cash prices are trading at about 24% more than benchmark, according to Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty, signaling contract prices may climb. Producers are scheduled to start talks this week with Japanese steel mills on next year's contracts.

Tensions are high after Chinese authorities arrested four London-based Rio Tinto's iron ore executives, including Australian Stern Hu, for allegedly stealing commercial secrets and bribery. Hu and Ge Minqiang, Wang Yong and Liu Caikui remain in detention since their arrest in July. Rio may be shunned by China in this year's talks, UBS analyst Price said.

To be sure, iron ore China's imports have exceeded real demand by 50 million metric tons this year, the China Iron and Steel Association said this month. The nation's cabinet in August said it was studying curbs on overcapacity in industries including steel, where output reached a record this year.

Wuhan Iron & Steel Co., the publicly traded unit of China's third-biggest steelmaker, said this week full-year profit may drop more than 50% because of the recession. Hebei Iron & Steel Group, China's second-biggest mill, said this month mills may lose money next year as well.

Shanghai-based Baoshan Steel may post earnings per share of 0.13 yuan in the fourth quarter, according to the mean estimate of three analysts compiled by Bloomberg, down 24% from the 0.17 yuan for the three months ended Sept. 30. Thursday, Baoshan had the highest profit in five quarters on lower costs.

Iron ore imports rose 36% to 469.4 million tons in the first nine months from a year earlier, the nation's customs office said Oct. 14. September's imports were a record. Steel production is the key driver of iron ore demand with 1.6 tons of ore used in every ton of steel produced.

Global steel output may jump 12% next year to a record 1.4 billion tons and production may grow 4% annually through 2015, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty said in a Oct. 6 report. China's economy expanded at 8.9%, the fastest pace in a year, in the third quarter as stimulus spending and record lending growth helped it lead the world out of recession.   
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 As mentioned at the outset. yes, there has been a correction Friday and yes, in theory this correction should take hold and we will now see markets decline steadily for the remainder of the year - that is the theory!

But in this 'whacky world' where common sense seems to have gone completely out of the window, I think we need to brace ourselves for positive comments this weekend from people like Warren Buffet, Ben Bernanke, the owners of McDonalds and of course Mickey Mouse; all of whose market opinions are held in high esteem!

But seriously, if you thought this week was busy, with third quarter earnings coming out of your ears, and GDP figures rocking the market this way and that. Well, you 'ain't seen nothing yet'.

Next week sees a swathe of big companies reporting as well as a raft of important economic data.

There's a list of companies longer than my arm reporting next week. Biggies to watch out for are Associated British Foods, Metro and UBS on Tuesday. Then there's Cobham, Marks & Spencer and Taylor Wimpey on Wednesday. On Thursday, ones to watch include Vedanta Resources, Unilever, EasyJet and Cable & Wireless. And the week ends with numbers from British Airways, Smith & Nephew and Tate & Lyle.

Volatility, both actual and implied, in financial asset classes is on the rise after a week in which world stocks suffered their biggest one-day selloff since August - and next week should actual be even more volatile.

This is injecting a further note of circumspection into markets that were already finding upside earning surprises an insufficient reason to drive stocks higher.

While the latest Reuters asset allocation poll shows fund managers rebuilt equity positions in October, it came at the expense of bonds, and cash holdings also rose - perhaps reflecting views about which asset class will be hardest hit by central banks discussing and implementing the unwinding of ultra-accommodative monetary policies.

Central bank policy meetings littered throughout next week (FOMC, ECB, BOE, RBA) and minutes from past policy meetings (BOJ, Riksbank) will be closely scanned for shifts in language, if not actual policy.

Divergences in monetary policy are becoming more apparent around the world with the dovish stance of some (e.g. the Riksbank) a stark contrast to those who are already delivering rate rises, as the Norges Bank did this week and the RBA is expected to again next week.

While this may influence relative performance, global bond markets will find it harder to resist the gravitational pull exerted by government debt issuance as the guaranteed support offered by QE programs fades, and exit strategies become a less distant prospect.

The Dollar's rebound (the ICE Futures Dollar index is on track for its biggest weekly gain since early August) will be a welcome respite for policymakers and exporters in countries with appreciating currencies but will hardly be enough to snuff out their concerns.

The Bank of Canada and the Norges Bank may have delivered completely different monetary policy decisions this week but both noted the impact of FX moves.

While exchange rate concerns will no doubt be aired behind closed doors at next week's G20 finance meeting in Scotland, public declarations will make clear how much common will there is to address the FX-related strains being borne by some and whether those saddled with the appreciating currencies have reached the pain threshold at which they are ready to kick up a public fuss.

Apart from exchange rate matters, other key G20 pressure points for financial markets will be any discussions on the timing and pace of fiscal stimulus withdrawal, the extent to which this is coordinated, how well national economies can weather such withdrawal given more ambiguous data recently, regulatory issues surrounding financial sector support extended during the crisis and what to do about such support now (bank results out in Europe could make this an even hotter issue).

The St. Andrews meeting will also be a test of whether the G20 unity manifest during the worst of the crisis will survive now that national economic performances are diverging more markedly and domestic political concerns are less uniform.

The weight that policymakers are giving to weaker-than-expected economic reports such as the Conference Board data or UK Q3 GDP data will become clearer over the course of next week and shape investors' thinking on the nature of the recovery they should be pricing in.

No less important will be the October US non-farm payroll report - likely to be an even more closely watched number than usual given the extent to which labour market woes fed through into US consumer confidence.

Next week, the government is set to release data that could show US unemployment topped 10% during October, though a poll of economists estimated the rate at 9.9%, up slightly from 9.8% in September. On Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of US workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell by 1,000 last week to 530,000. That was a smaller decline than economists had expected.

Economic reports out Monday are expected to show a small rise in pending home sales and a small decline in construction spending in September.

The Institute for Supply Management reports on manufacturing activity Monday and the services sector Wednesday. On Tuesday, the government will release data on September factory orders while its preliminary figure on third-quarter productivity is due Thursday.

On the topic of currencies, an avalanche of risk events for currency markets next week is increasing the potential for volatile exchange rate moves, spurring demand for short-dated options contracts.

The price of these contracts, particularly in the one-week tenor, jumped on Thursday as hedgers and speculators positioned themselves for a flurry of central bank policy decisions, US unemployment data and a Group of 20 finance ministers' meeting.

One-week implied volatilities on several major currency pairs like Euro/Dollar and Dollar/Yen rose on Thursday to their highest in three weeks. While they eased from their peaks, they remain well supported.

But if next week does bring more fireworks, an asymmetric reaction is likely -- exchange rate moves will be more exaggerated if risk trades are unwound further.

This view is supported by shifts in risk-reversals. These have mostly bounced off recent lows and were pointing more aggressively to the danger of further close-outs of 'risk trades', i.e. weaker commodity currencies and a stronger Dollar (apart from the case of Dollar/Yen).

Euro/Dollar is the pair where the turnaround has been more obvious. After being neutral to slightly favouring Euro calls, riskies have started solidly pointing towards the downside across the curve, and the one-week contract traded up to 1.0 vols.

But even beyond the one-week tenor, the market has also actively traded options expiring on Friday Nov. 6, US payrolls day. There is talk of large strikes at $1.52 in Euro/Dollar, US$0.94 in Aussie and 91 Yen in Dollar/Yen.

The Monday after the G20 week-end is also a 'hot' date, and on Thursday there was a lot of interest for two-week Aussie Dollar/US Dollar downside options - which cover the Australian employment report and traded around the 16/17% handle.

All told Ladies and Gentlemen, I feel we are entering into a critical week and without a shadow of a doubt, I believe that next week will shape the remainder of this year.

Will markets as I expect, allow this bearishness to take hold and a correction continue throughout the remainder of this year? Or will Mickey Mouse, Superman and Wonder Woman come to the rescue with a large dose of media spin?

It remains to be seen but one thing is absolutely crystal clear; next week is going to be volatile - to say the least!
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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