| Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
I keep saying it - "it's all about jobs" and this week has once again, proven that it is impossible to get out of the mire, until the jobs situation starts to show core improvement.
Overnight, the US jobs situation proved to be far worse (or not as good by far) than 'expected' (expectations across the pond have been a little 'wild' to say the least of late; by 'of late', I mean the past 5 years at least!).
Spain and Italy, their unemployment both up once again this week with Spain setting new records!
But enough of this, you all know my views on unemployment - let me get straight into the interesting stuff ..... the US economy.
I have been put to the sword this week by a European chap that asked me "how on earth can you be so bearish about the US? They are in far better shape than Europe and there is much more chance of the whole European economy collapsing through contagion, than there is the US". Good point? Sorry, I think not and to spell out the extent perhaps of the US's problems - and without ranting too much - here are my reasons why I think the US economy is up a creek without a paddle - no matter how many figures they fudge. So just how bad is the US economy? Well, the truth is that sometimes it is hard even for me to put into words. They have squandered the great wealth left to them by their forefathers; they have almost totally dismantled the world's greatest manufacturing base; they have shipped millions of good jobs overseas and they have piled up the biggest mountain of debt in the history of mankind. That's for starters - bear with me, I'm on a roll here! They have taken the greatest free enterprise economy that was ever created and have turned it into a gigantic house of cards delicately balanced on a never-ending spiral of paper money and debt. For decades, all of this paper money and debt has enabled the US to enjoy the greatest party in the history of the world, but now the bills are coming due and the party is nearly over. In fact, things are already so bad that you can pick almost every number and find a corresponding statistic that shows just how bad the economy in the US has become. You doubt it? Well, I've done just that: * - Gallup's measure of underemployment (not unemployment, but underemployment) hit 20.0% on March 15th. That was up from 19.7% two weeks earlier and 19.5% at the start of the year. * - According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in the month of March. This was an increase of almost 19% from February, and it was the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report back in January 2005. * - According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, in March the national rate of unemployment in the United States was 9.7%, but for Americans younger than 25 it was well above 18%. * - The FDIC's list of problem banks recently hit a 17-year high. * - During the first quarter of 2010, the total number of loans that are at least three months past due in the United States increased for the 16th consecutive quarter. * - The Spanish government has just approved a 15 billion Euro austerity plan. * - The US Congress recently approved an increase in the debt cap of the US government to over 14 trillion Dollars. * - The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of $13 trillion in assets with a deposit insurance fund that is basically flat broke. In fact, the FDIC's deposit insurance fund now has negative 20.7 billion Dollars in it, which actually represents a slight improvement from the end of 2009. * - The US national debt soared from the $12 trillion mark to the $13 trillion mark in a frighteningly short period of time. * - It is being reported that a massive network of big banks and financial institutions have been involved in blatant bid-rigging fraud that cost taxpayers across the US billions of Dollars. The US Justice Department is charging that financial advisers to municipalities colluded with Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Lehman Brothers, Wachovia and 11 other banks in a conspiracy to rig bids on municipal financial instruments. * - The Mortgage Bankers Association recently announced that more than 10% of all US homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment during the January-March time period. That was a record high and up from 9.1% a year ago. * - The official US unemployment (as opposed to underemployment) number is 9.9%, although the truth is that many economists consider the true unemployment rate to be much, much higher than that. * - The French government says that its deficit will increase to 8% of GDP in 2010, but by implementing substantial budget cuts they hope that they can get it to within the European Union's 3% limit by the year 2013. * - The biggest banks in the US cut their collective small business lending balance by another $1 billion in November. That drop was the seventh monthly decline in a row. * - The six biggest banks in the United States now possess assets equivalent to 60% of America's gross national product. * - That is the number of US banks that federal regulators closed on Friday May 28th. That brings that total number of banks that have been shut down this year in the United States to a total of 78. * - According to a study published by Texas A&M University Press, the four biggest industries in the Gulf of Mexico region are oil, tourism, fishing and shipping. Together, those four industries account for approximately $234 billion in economic activity each year. Now those four industries have been absolutely decimated by the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and will probably not fully recover for years, if not decades. * - Decent three bedroom homes in the city of Detroit can be bought for $10,000, but no one wants to buy them. * - A massive "second wave" of adjustable rate mortgages is scheduled to reset over the next two to three years. If this second wave is anything like the first wave, the US housing market is about to be absolutely crushed. * - The bottom 40% of all income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1% of the nation's wealth. But of course many on Wall Street and in the government would argue that there is nothing wrong with an economy where nearly half the people are dividing up 1% of the benefits. Let me take one of my pet favourites of the above figures - the US National Debt. So just how big is the US national debt in 2010? Well, according to the US Treasury Department, on June 1st the US National Debt was $13,050,826,460,886.97. For those not used to seeing such big numbers, that is over 13 trillion Dollars. To give you an idea of just how much a trillion Dollars is, if you had started spending one million Dollars every single day when Christ was born, you still would not have spent one trillion Dollars by now. And yet somehow the US government has accumulated a debt of over 13 trillion Dollars. This is a debt that they have callously placed on the backs of future generations of Americans. Somehow they have the gall to expect their progeny to pay off the biggest mountain of debt in the history of the world. But hey, if you are feeling especially generous today, the federal government is actually taking online donations that will go towards paying off the national debt. Yes, it is true; but please try to resist the urge to laugh. This request comes from the same government that spent $2.6 million tax Dollars to study the drinking habits of Chinese prostitutes and $400,000 tax Dollars to pay researchers to cruise six bars in Buenos Aires Argentina to find out why gay men engage in risky sexual behavior when drunk. Perhaps they should not hold their breath while waiting for our donations to show up. Or perhaps they should get their own house in order before expecting donations - more to the point I feel. But the truth is that they continue to recklessly spend money as if they have not learned anything. This year, it is projected that the US government will issue nearly as much new debt as the rest of the governments of the world combined. Yes, getting into debt is another thing that Americans dominate the rest of the world in. It is estimated that the US government will have a budget deficit of approximately 1.6 trillion Dollars in 2010. Now remember, when Ronald Reagan took office, the US national debt was only about 1 trillion Dollars. So, from the founding of the United States until Reagan took office the US accumulated a total of about 1 trillion Dollars in debt. In just the last 30 years they have accumulated 12 trillion Dollars more. You know, the truth is that it is really, really hard to even spend one trillion Dollars. If right this moment you went out and started spending one Dollar every single second, it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend one trillion Dollars. Hopefully that gives you an idea just how fast the US government is getting further into debt. And now they are officially in the danger zone. According to a senior economist, the US national debt is now equal to 90% of gross domestic product. Most economists consider a level of 100% debt to GDP to be an absolute nightmare scenario. But things look even worse when you total up all forms of debt in the United States. The total of all government, corporate and consumer debt in the United States is now equal to 360% of GDP. That is far greater than at any point during the Great Depression. Yes, the US economy is in a LOT of trouble. So can they just raise taxes on everybody just a little bit and get rid of this budget deficit? Well, unfortunately no. According to the Tax Foundation's Microsimulation Model, to erase the US budget deficit for 2010, the US Congress would have to multiply the tax rate for every American by 2.4. That would mean that the 10% tax rate would become 24%, the 15% tax rate would become 36%, and the 35% tax rate would have to be 85%. Would they like to pay 85% of their income in taxes? And that would not reduce the national debt one penny - all that would do is eliminate the US budget deficit for this year. The truth is that it is simply not possible to pay off the national debt. Most economists realize this and speak of more realistic goals such as getting the debt growth down to a level that is "sustainable". But the reality is that they are way beyond being able to get this debt under control. If the US government cut spending enough to make a real difference it would crush the economy and tax revenue would take a sharp nosedive. If the US government borrows even more money and increases government spending even more it will help the economy in the short-term, but it will make the long-term problems even worse. No, the truth is that they have created an economic nightmare from which there simply is no escape under the current system. The national debt will never be repaid and the never-ending spiral of debt and paper money that they have created is doomed to failure. So what will happen someday when the current economic system does collapse? That will be for the American people to decide - and good luck to them on that one! So hopefully the thoughts above give justification to my 'anti-the-US-economy-being-better-than-Europe's 'thought process of the past 2 years ..... at least! On to the numbers on the boards for the week that was: |
| US Markets
How the US did this week ..... | |
US stocks sank, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index falling to its lowest level in four months, as slower-than-estimated jobs growth spurred concern the economic recovery may not be as robust as forecast. Caterpillar Inc. and American Express Co. tumbled at least 5% after a government report showed employers in the US hired fewer workers in May than forecast and Americans dropped out of the labor force. Chevron Corp. and Alcoa Inc. dropped more than 3.5% to lead commodities producers lower as oil fell to $71.40 a barrel and industrial metal prices plunged. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. fell 2.6% after saying gasoline prices and unemployment hurt traffic at US stores. The S&P 500 Index declined 3.4% to 1,064.88 at 4 p.m. in New York, as 497 of its 500 stocks slid. It was the biggest drop on the day of the US Labor Department's monthly jobs report since at least 1998, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 324.06 points, or 3.2%, to 9,931.22. All 30 of its components retreated. The S&P 500 erased its weekly advance after the Labor Department said Friday that payrolls increased by 431,000 in May, trailing the median economist forecast in a Bloomberg News survey that called for a gain of 536,000. Private employers added 41,000 positions, 139,000 less than estimated. US stocks advanced Thursday, giving the S&P 500 its first back-to-back gains since April, amid speculation the employment figures will bolster investor optimism in the economic recovery. The S&P 500 has slumped 12% from this year's high on April 23 as the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe and slowing growth in China threatened to derail the global economic recovery. Gauges of energy and raw-materials companies in the S&P 500 sank at least 3.4%. Crude oil for July delivery declined 4.3% to $71.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper and silver also tumbled. Chevron fell 3.6% to $71.28, while Alcoa declined 4.7% to $10.84. Industrial shares had the biggest decline among 10 S&P 500 industries, slumping 4.6%. Caterpillar declined 5.5% to $57.76, for the biggest drop in the Dow. American Express tumbled 5.5% to $57.76. US Steel Corp. lost 7.3% to $41.99. The nation's second-largest domestic steelmaker was cut from the "conviction buy" list at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on concerns over European credit, Chinese demand and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Wal-Mart slid 2.6% to $50.40. Eduardo Castro-Wright, vice chairman and US stores chief at the world's largest retailer, told shareholders that competition in the industry "is stiffer than ever." The stock fell even after the company said it will buy back as much as $15 billion of its shares. Bank of New York Mellon Corp. sank 4.7% to $26. The world's biggest custody bank will offer $700 million of common stock to the public to help fund its previously announced purchase of a unit of PNC Financial Services Group Inc. BNY Mellon agreed in February to pay $2.31 billion for Pittsburgh- based PNC's global investment-servicing business, a move aimed at adding hedge-fund and mutual-fund clients. Tellabs Inc. fell 11% to $6.98. Barclays Plc cut its share-price estimate to $7 from $9.50 on concern the maker of telecommunications equipment may not be picked by AT&T Inc. as a supplier for a high-speed wireless Internet network known as long-term evolution. Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. slid 8.2% to $40.14. The second-largest publicly traded US engineering company agreed to buy TechTeam Government Solutions Inc. for $59 million. |
| European Markets
What has been happening in Europe this week ..... | |
European stocks dropped as US payrolls data missed economists' forecasts and Hungary said its economy is in a "very grave" situation, reigniting concern the region's debt crisis is spreading. Societe Generale SA and Raiffeisen International Bank Holding AG tumbled more than 7%, leading a gauge of banks to the biggest decline in three weeks. BHP Billiton Ltd. paced a retreated in mining shares as base metals fell. Opap SA plummeted 9.1% as Alpha Finance SA downgraded Europe's largest publicly traded gambling company. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 1.8% to 244.53, trimming this week's advance to 0.2%. The gauge has retreated 10% from this year's high on April 15 amid concern a European sovereign-debt crisis that started in Greece may hamper growth. The VStoxx Index, which gauges the cost of protecting against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, soared 13% to 37.69, the biggest gain in more than two weeks. National benchmark indexes declined in all 18 western European markets, except Iceland. The UK's FTSE 100 sank 1.6, Germany's DAX fell 1.9% and France's CAC 40 tumbled 2.9%. Austria's ATX plunged 4.1% to the lowest close since July last year. GERMANY German stocks retreated, sending the the benchmark DAX Index to a weekly decline. Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG followed European banking shares lower, falling more than 2%, while carmakers also dropped. ThyssenKrupp AG and Salzgitter AG fell with metal prices. The Euro dropped below $1.20 for the first time since March 2006 amid speculation the region's fiscal crisis is spreading. The DAX dropped 1.9% to 5,938.88 in Frankfurt, ending the week down 0.1%. The gauge is 6.2% below its April 26 high on concern the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe will hold back economic growth. The broader HDAX Index tumbled 1.9% Friday, ending the longest winning streak since July 2009. Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest bank, dropped 2.9% to 47.03 Euros, while Commerzbank, the second-biggest, plunged 2.5% to 5.55 Euros. European banking shares lost 3.8% Friday, the worst performance among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.
Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest carmaker, declined 3.1% to 70.03 Euros, while Bayerische Motoren Werke AG retreated for the first time this week, losing 2.8% to 38.11 Euros. ThyssenKrupp and Salzgitter, Germany's biggest steelmakers, lost 2.1% to 21.40 Euros and 2.7% to 49.86 Euros, respectively. Aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc all fell on the London Metal Exchange. Air Berlin Plc lost 1.3% to 3.55 Euros as Germany's second-largest airline was downgraded to "sell" from "hold" at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The German cabinet on Wednesday approved the ban on naked short-selling of all stocks of German companies in an effort to control speculation, media reports said citing the draft of a bill. Earlier, the German government shocked markets in May by banning naked short-selling of specific financial stocks and sovereign bonds and Credit Default Swaps. Naked Short Selling involves selling securities without owning the securities or not having an unconditional claim to get the securities. The draft reportedly gives power to financial regulator BaFin to temporarily ban the Euro currency derivatives under special circumstances. Previously, the government planned a outright ban on Euro currency derivatives. The draft legislation will require the approval of both houses of parliament. The bill reportedly says that the financial crisis has unsettled the confidence in financial markets and has underlined the need for substantial improvement of supervision. The crisis has reached a new dimension with turbulence in the sovereign debt market and volatility of the Euro. Germany's service sector activity growth showed a slight slowdown in May, a survey conducted by Markit Economics showed Thursday. The final seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 54.8 in May from thirty-two month high of 55.2 in April. The index has now posted above the 50.0 no-change mark for ten consecutive months. The flash estimate for May was 53.7. The service sector showed only a moderate rise in new business. The final Composite Output Index, at the same time, slipped to 56.4 from 59.3 in April. The combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors rose at the slowest rate since February. But the composite index stayed above the 50.0 no-change mark for the tenth consecutive month and higher than the earlier 'flash' reading of 55.5 in May. FRANCE France's CAC 40 Index plunged 101.73, or 2.9%, to 3,455.61 in Paris, for a 1.7% loss this week. The SBF 120 Index decreased 2.7% Friday. Financial shares led declines. Societe Generale SA, France's second-largest bank by market value, tumbled 7.6% to 31.59 Euros. Credit Agricole SA, France's biggest bank by branches, lost 5.1% to 8.35 Euros. Axa SA, Europe's second-largest insurer, plunged 5% to 12.54 Euros. BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank by assets, decreased 6% to 43.13 Euros. Societe Generale is telling analysts that it didn't suffer losses on derivatives, said two people familiar with the matter who declined to be identified. Societe Generale declined to comment on Reuters and CNBC reports Friday that cited speculation the bank may face derivatives losses. "If we had something to say, we would have already communicated," said Laura Schalk, a spokeswoman for the Paris-based bank. Valeo SA rose 3.5% to 24.34 Euros, extending Thursday's 7.5% increase. France's second-largest auto- parts supplier said it's working with financial advisers to evaluate options to yield the "highest possible value." French ILO mainland unemployment rate stood at 9.5% in the first quarter, unchanged from the revised rate of the fourth quarter, figures released by the statistical office Insee showed Thursday. Economists had forecast a rate of 9.7%. The jobless rate for men was stable at 9.4% and that for women eased to 9.6% from 9.7%. The number of unemployed totaled 2.7 million, a stable figure compared to the revised number of the fourth quarter of 2009. Moreover, the number stayed around the level of 1999. The average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and overseas departments stood at 9.9% of the active population, also unchanged from the revised rate of the fourth quarter. Further, the statistical agency said the employment rate of the population aged 15-64 years increased in the first quarter of 2010, due to the temporary contract employment. The employment rate stood at 63.8%, slightly up from 63.5% in the fourth quarter.
At the same time, the permanent contract employment rate continued to decrease. In the first quarter, 6.1% of the persons employed were underemployed, the statistical office said. Growth momentum in the French service sector continued to build in May, data from Markit Economics showed Thursday. The services activity index stood at a 44-month high in May. The index came in at 61.4, up from 59.2 in April. The current sequence of rising service sector output now extends to nine months. The flash reading for May was 61.9. At 60.1, the Markit Composite Output Index reached a 6-month high in May. The reading for April was 59.2 and the flash composite PMI for May was 60.5. Although output growth in the manufacturing sector eased to a nine-month low, overall activity across the French private sector rose at a stronger rate during May. BELGIUM The Bel 20 in Brussels ended the week at 2,429.67, down 2.20% for the Friday session. Belgian bank KBC Group and the European Investment Bank signed an agreement to help Belgian companies with a Eur300 million loan, they said Monday. The Belgian lender will use its "close-knit network of bank branches to make the EIB funds available to small and medium-sized enterprises in Belgium as early as this summer," they said in a joint statement. The funding will be made available to companies with less than 250 employees in a wide range of economic activity, they explained. Belgian consumer price inflation continued to rise in May. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.27% year-on-year in May, faster than 1.80% in the previous month, the National Institute of Statistics said Monday. On a monthly basis, the CPI grew 0.40% in May, following a 0.35% rise in April. The increase was mainly driven by the higher prices of fruits, cut flowers, gasoline, diesel, travel abroad, potatoes, electricity and diesel fuel, the statistical office said. Belgium's economy improved in the first quarter. The GDP grew 1% on an annual basis, compared to 0.8% fall in the fourth quarter. Belgian chemicals company Solvay is said to be considering a takeover offer for German fragrance and flavours producer Symrise. Incofin's Belgian fund is looking to invest in MFIs operating in less penetrated areas of north and central India. Belgium-based Incofin Investment Management has invested Rs 4.5 crore in Fusion Microfinance, a Delhi based microfinance startup operating in the north-central states of India. The company, founded by Devesh Sachdev, Ashish Tewari and Ankur Singhal, started its operations in January 2010. The microfinance institution also recently acquired the microfinance division of Aajeevika (a not for profit body operating in Delhi). Fusion has a base of 2,600 clients in three states, covered by four branches, and a loan book of Rs 22.6 million. Fusion Microfinance has localised team experience in the rural geographies of Uttar Pradesh, Uttranchal, Delhi and Madhya Pradesh. THE NETHERLANDS In Amsterdam the AEX finished the Trading Session on Friday and the week on 321.22, a drop of 1.78% on the day. Supermarket group Ahold has increased its market share in both the Dutch and US markets, according to the company's first quarter earnings report. Ahold booked a 1% increase in turnover over the first three months of the year, with sales reaching €8.7bn. The company books 60% of sales in the US. In the Netherlands, where Ahold operates the Albert Heijn market leader, sales rose 3.7% to €3.1bn. Net profit rose nearly 46% to €274m due to changes Ahold has made in the provision for losses on two former American investments. Operating profit rose 3.3% to €409m. "Our repositioning actions in recent years and our customer focus have enabled us to increase volumes and improve market share in the Netherlands and the United States and deliver another quarter of solid performance,' CEO John Rishton said in a statement. 'The market continues to be challenging with customers focused on value and high levels of promotional activity.' According to the Financial Times, Ahold continues to work on plans to enter the Belgian market. Rishton declined to give a time-frame but said Ahold was looking into real estate, permits and franchise partners, the paper said. ' We are going to move into Belgium, it's just a question of how long it takes us to get there,' he told the FT. Bank of Scotland has become the first foreign bank to try to attract savers without a Dutch central bank guarantee since the collapse of Icesave, the Volkskrant reports on Thursday. This means that if Bank of Scotland fails, savers will have to try to recover their money from the British authorities. Bank of Scotland says it has not applied for Dutch central bank approval to operate because it is a very lengthy and expensive process. 'We would have to pass those costs on to customers,' spokesman Michiel van der Linde told the paper. The British guarantee covers savings of up to €50,000, the Dutch €100,000. The European Commission hopes to introduce standard coverage throughout the EU this year. Netherlands' manufacturing economy expanded at a slower pace in May, a report by Markit Economics showed on Tuesday. The NEVI Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing slightly dropped to 56.5 in May from 56.9 in the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below suggests contraction. New orders from abroad increased at the weakest pace in five months, while production expanded strongly, but at a milder rate than over the previous four months. Outstanding business accumulated at manufacturing firms rose at the fastest pace since March 2007. The total employment level expanded moderately in May from the previous month. Input price inflation was strong in May, showing further increases in both fuel and raw material costs. Gemma Wallace, economist at Markit said, "PMI data signaled that May was still a good month, not only for Dutch manufacturers but also for the job market. Companies responded to further new order gains and an accelerated rise in backlogs by expanding capacity and building buffer stocks. "However, price pressures remain a concern. Although charge inflation eased fractionally, it was still considerable and well above trend, while input cost inflation accelerated to a rapid pace." SWITZERLAND The SMI in Zurich headed into the weekend at 6,298.97, a drop of 1.87% on the day. Switzerland's SVME Purchasing Managers' Index unexpectedly rose to an all time high level in May, a joint report from the SVME Association of Purchasing and Materials Management and Credit Suisse showed Tuesday. The index stood at 66.4 in May, up from 65.9 in April. The expected reading was 64.7. The seasonally-adjusted PMI has now remained above the 50-point growth threshold for nine successive months. The industry momentum that is being reflected in the current PMI originated from a low level. The survey found that all five of the sub-components that feed into of the PMI calculation closed the month in the growth zone. But the only noteworthy increases came from the output and stocks of purchases elements. Output and stocks of purchases rose 1.1 points and 7.2, respectively. The suppliers' delivery component climbed only 0.6 points in May. Meanwhile, backlog of orders dipped 1.4 points and employment by 0.4 points. The decline in purchase prices component was 5 and that in quantity of purchases was 4.3. The Swiss economy continued to expand in the first quarter driven by trade and private consumption. However, the growth was slower than the previous two quarters, on a fall in government expenditure and investment, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, said Tuesday. Gross domestic product, or GDP, rose 0.4% sequentially in the first quarter. Economists had forecast 0.7% growth. Meanwhile, SECO revised up fourth quarter GDP figure to 0.9% from 0.7% reported earlier. On an annual basis, GDP growth accelerated to 2.2% from 0.6% in fourth quarter. A breakdown of data showed that final consumption expenditure rose at a slower pace of 0.2% compared with the fourth quarter's 0.6% growth, of which expenditure by households and non-profit institutions increased 0.5%, while general government expenditure dropped 1.4%, the first fall in four quarters. SECO said food and beverages, telecommunications, housing services and energy consumption, in particular, as well as expenditures for hotels and restaurants contributed to the growth in private consumption expenditure. Gross fixed capital formation declined 0.8% following 1.4% growth in the fourth quarter. Investment in fixed assets and software and construction fell 0.8% each. Final domestic demand, which do not include changes in inventories and net-imports of valuables such as precious metals, jewellery, objects of art and antiquities, was flat after 0.8% growth in the final quarter of last year. Domestic demand fell at a faster pace of 1.2% compared with 0.2% decline in the fourth quarter. Foreign trade gave significant boost to the Swiss economy in the first quarter. Exports of goods and services grew 4.8%, faster than the 2.2% rise in the fourth quarter. Overseas sale of goods climbed 5.6% and those of services grew 2.9%. Similarly, growth in imports of goods and services accelerated to 2.5% from 0.4%, of which imports of goods were up 3.1% and that of services grew 0.1%. Compared to the corresponding quarter last year, the GDP deflator dropped 0.2%. After three negative quarters in a row, the consumption deflator was able to move upward again by 0.4%. While prices for plant and equipment spending declined once again by 2.4%, those for building investments rose slightly by 0.1%. Export prices were 3% below the respective figure of the previous year, and import prices dropped by 1.5%. The Swiss economic recovery is likely to continue in the coming months. The KOF Economic Institute said Friday that its economic barometer for the country touched highest level since August 2006. The Swiss National Bank foresees GDP growth of around 1% this year. The economy contracted 1.5% in 2009, the sharpest decline since 1975. Switzerland's retail turnover recorded a monthly growth of 1.2% in April in real terms, following a 1.3% fall in March, provisional results published by the Federal Statistical Office showed Wednesday. In nominal terms, sales grew 1.4%, reversing 0.7% decline last month. Excluding fuel, the retail sector showed a seasonally adjusted increase in real turnover of 0.6% compared with March. Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco were up 1.9% and the non-food sector showed positive growth of 1.3%. Year-on-year, retail sales growth slowed to real 1.3% from 4% in March. Growth in nominal terms also eased in April, to 1.2% from 3.6%. Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco dipped 0.5%, while non-food excluding fuel rose by real 2.9%. Excluding fuel, the retail sector showed an increase in real turnover of 1.2%. AUSTRIA In Vienna, the ATX rounded off the week on 2,267.36, a whopping Friday drop of 4.12%. Social Democratic (SPÖ) Labour Minister Rudolf Hundstorfer said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the situation on the labour market as the number of young people out of work declined last month. Official figures presented by the ministry Friday (Tues) showed that the number of unemployed under-25s dropped by 10.7% compared to May 2009. Hundstorfer appealed to wait for autumn to analyse whether the situation is sustainably improving as 1.5% more people older than 50 were out of work last month. The overall jobless rate declined in six of Austria's nine provinces in May to 6.3% after 6.9% in April 2010. Statistics reveal that 227,089 people living in Austria had no work last month, 22,590 less than in May 2009. The jobless rate however soared if the 78,178 unemployed people sitting re-education courses provided by the Labour Market Service (AMS) last month are considered in statistics. The government has been harshly attacked by the opposition for refusing to include the number of people in these courses in the federal unemployment figure. Freedom Party (FPÖ) head Heinz-Christian Strache branded some of the courses "pointless", while the Greens agreed with the FPÖ that the government tried to "hide" jobless figures by letting the unemployed sit lessons at the AMS. Hundstorfer revealed last week he planned to spend less on the offered courses. Asked to give an example of what had gone wrong in helping those out of work, the minister said it must not happen that people sit a course teaching how to apply for a job best three times. Hundstorfer explained the plan was to cut the AMS courses' budget by around 100 million Euros less per year from 2011. This announcement comes after People's Party (ÖVP) Finance Minister Josef Pröll called on all ministries to reduce their investments in the coalition's bid to lower the state debt until 2013. Upper Austrian firm Christ Water Technology (CWT) bosses claimed they were unable to give a forecast on future developments due to the "volatile market situation" as losses soar. Upper Austrian steel producer voestalpine suffered dramatic losses in what bosses labelled the "hardest difficult business year since World War Two". Wolfgang Eder, CEO of the Upper Austrian company, announced Tuesday turnover shrank by 27.1% year on year to 8.55 billion Euros in the 2009/2010 business year. "We didn't do badly in international comparison. But the past business year was the most difficult one since World War Two," Eder said. Eder said he expected his company's current upwards trend to continue over the next 24 months "despite the (bad) development of the Euro and the (soaring) state debt (of Austria)." The Linz-based company reduced its number of staff by six% to 39,406 in the past business year. Eder explained the firm had been forced to halve its investments after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in autumn 2008 to 542.5 million Euros. Peter Schiefer, a spokesman for voestalpine, announced a few weeks ago that the firm will manage to keep the number of dismissals at its Böhler steel plant in Kapfenberg, Styria, as low as 10. Firm bosses initially announced around 120 workers would most likely be sacked throughout this year due to a massive decrease in assignments. Schiefer explained voestalpine was able to change its plans as order volumes had risen strongly so far this year. CWT officials said Wednesday that net losses rose from 27.5 million Euros in 2008 to 33.7 million Euros last year. They also said turnover shrank by 23% to 165.7 million Euros. Canadian GLV holds a 92.6% interest in the Mondsee-based water-processing firm via subsidiary Eimco since February and is expected to consider a full takeover. CWT bosses explained it was impossible to give an outlook on 2010 business figures because of volatile markets, but added they would focus on "core activities" and introduce a "strict costs management". It was also announced Friday that the number of staff at the firm - which is listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange (WBAG) - dropped from 1,147 in 2008 to 914 in 2009. SWEDEN Stockholm's OMX completed a busy week on 988.46, a Friday dip of 1.74%. Swedish banks are well-equipped to meet unexpected and negative events in the period ahead as the country's major banks are well-capitalized compared to their international counterparts, the Riksbank said Tuesday. Moreover, loan losses during the period 2010-2012 are expected to be lower due to the improvement in the real economy, the central bank said in its financial stability report. "The Swedish banks are also well-capitalized, seen from an international perspective and have since the winter been able to return to normal funding without state support," central bank Governor Stefan Ingves said. However, the bank noted that there are a number of risks that could worsen banks' situation. One such risk is that the fiscal consolidation in countries with public finance problems may suffer setbacks. Another risk is that the fragile recovery in the Baltic countries will come to a halt, probably leading to increased loan losses for the banks. Ingves insisted that countries with problems in their public finances need to correct their situation immediately to contribute to greater stability in the financial markets. Sweden's central bank on Thursday said it is removing the tolerance interval from the specification of the monetary policy target, saying that the removal has no practical significance for the inflation target or for the monetary policy decisions. Previously, the central bank had an inflation target of 2% with a tolerance interval of plus/minus 1 percentage point. The bank now removed the tolerance interval of plus/minus 1 percentage point. Consequently, the inflation target is at 2%. "Removing the tolerance interval has no practical significance for the inflation target as such, or for the monetary policy decisions," Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves said. "Friday there is considerable understanding for the fact that monetary policy is conducted under uncertainty and that inflation can from time to time undershoot or overshoot the target." According to information from the central bank, the tolerance interval was part of a decision on guidelines for monetary policy made by the then Governing Council on 14 January 1993. Sweden's current account surplus expanded in the first quarter due to an increase in investment income and reduced transfers. The current account surplus rose to SEK 63.6 billion in the first quarter from a revised SEK 45.7 billion in the December quarter. The reading for the fourth quarter was revised from SEK 40.8 billion. Net inflow of the investment income more than doubled to SEK 24.6 billion from SEK 12.2 billion in the previous quarter. Income of direct investment accounted for a net inflow of SEK 22.8 billion while income on portfolio investment weakened, having a net inflow of SEK 0.3 billion. Total investment income from investments abroad amounted to SEK 95.3 billion, higher by SEK 20.5 billion from the previous quarter. The deficit in current transfers amounted to SEK 6.5 billion, down from SEK 14.2 billion, mainly because EU subsidies increased during the quarter. EU transfers resulted in a weak net outflow of SEK 0.8 billion and foreign aid posted a net outflow of SEK 2.2 billion. Foreign trade in goods and services amounted to SEK 46 billion. A strong recovery of imports of goods contributed to the lower net trade, while exports of goods rebounded moderately. The global downturn had affected trade in goods with a reduced demand during 2008 and 2009, while its impact on trade in services was comparatively milder. The capital account balance showed flat reading in the first quarter as the SEK 0.1 billion EU subsidies and SEK 0.2 billion outflow of foreign aid for investment canceled each other out on a net basis. In the December quarter, the capital account deficit amounted to SEK 0.5 billion. Financial account surplus grew to SEK 140.3 billion from SEK 13.1 billion in the fourth quarter last year, influenced by significant net flows in other investments and portfolio investments. DENMARK Copenhagen's OMX limped into the weekend on 397.20, a drop of 1.01% for the session. The nation's largest bank says newly released figures show public spending is out of control After the latest public expenditure figures for 2009 were published by Statistics Denmark Friday, Steen Bocian, the chief economist at Danske Bank, Denmark's largest financial institution, says that public sector costs are unsustainable. In a statement made to national broadcaster DR, Bocian said the growth in public consumption was about one percentage point higher than it appeared in the national audit, which he added, was a very significant difference. 'All the discussions about whether to make cutbacks during the last few years has to stop,' Bocian said. 'Public expenditure has never been higher whether we measure it in absolute terms or as a share of the economy.' According to Statistics Denmark, the national deficit was 47 billion kroner last year - which was expected. However, public spending reached an unprecedented 496 billion kroner in 2009. 'The level of public spending has reached an unsustainable level,' Bocian said. 'This means that there is a need for adjustments which will be regarded as cutbacks. But this has to be seen in the light of an excessive increase in public sector costs during the last few years.' Bocian added that the growth in public spending underlined the need for economic reforms. Denmark's economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, a report by the Statistics Denmark showed on Monday. The gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.6% on a sequential basis in the first quarter, faster than a revised 0.1% growth in the previous quarter. Economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. The fourth quarter growth was revised from the 0.2% increase reported initially. Private consumption expenditure rose 1.1% sequentially in the first quarter, larger than 0.6% growth in the previous quarter. Similarly, government spending increased 0.5%, faster than 0.2% in the previous three months. On the other hand, the gross fixed investment slipped 3.3% in the first quarter, following a 2.7% fall in the previous quarter. Exports of goods and services increased 3.6% in the first quarter, faster than 0.8% in the previous quarter. At the same time, imports of goods and services rose 1.6%, after falling 0.3% in the fourth quarter. Total employment rose 0.2%, compared to the 1.3% fall in the previous quarter. Year-on-year, the GDP decreased 0.4% in the first quarter. The private and government consumption expenditure increased by 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Denmark's retail sales volume dropped more than expected in April, following a strong recovery in March, partly due to early Easter holidays. Meanwhile, the industrial sales recorded a notable increase in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. Retail sales volume decreased a seasonally adjusted 4.2% month-on-month in April, following a 2.4% increase in March, Statistics Denmark said Tuesday. Economists were looking for a 1% decline. Sales in textiles were down 7.2% month-on-month and sales in other consumer goods dropped 6.5%. Trade in food and other groceries was down 0.8%. On an annual basis, total retail sales declined 7.1%. Sales of food and other groceries fell 7.9% and textiles sales recorded a steep decline of 9.3%. Trade in other consumer goods fell 5.8%. Separately, the agency reported that the country's industrial sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.8% quarter-on-quarter between January and March. Excluding sales in mining and quarrying industry, trade rose 0.9%, whereas in mining and quarrying alone, sales increased 11.2%. Sales in food beverages and tobacco industry was up 4.2% on a quarterly basis. The biggest increase in sales was recorded by the pharmaceuticals industry, up 33.4%. Meanwhile, trade in textile and leather industry dropped 0.1%. Annually, total industrial sales was down 3.2%, while trade decreased 4.9%, excluding mining and quarrying. However, in mining and quarrying industry, sales increased 18.4% year-on-year in April. The former head of EBH Bank has apparently disappeared from the small town where the bank was headquartered Finn Strier Poulsen, the former chief executive of bankrupt EBH Bank, has put his home up for sale and apparently cleared out of Fjerritslev, the small town where the bank was headquartered. According to business website epn.dk, the former director has been preliminarily charged with manipulating share prices and transferring large amounts of money to the private accounts of bank associates. Others charged in connection with the case include the bank's former board chairman Egon Korsbæk and former deputy director Finn Jensen. During its heyday, the 110-year old bank owned nine branches in northwest Denmark, in addition to leasing, real-estate and investment branches located in Copenhagen and in Germany. EBH Bank boasted around 350 employees. At the end of March, the Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA), a state-run agency which investigates collapsed banks, said that EBH had been reported to police for manipulation of its stock values in the period up to the bank's collapse in autumn of 2008. A total of around 300 million kroner was allegedly made through the illegal purchase of EBH Bank shares, according to the FSA. 'At the end of 2007, EBH Group had recorded its assets to be 10.4 billion kroner with an equity of 1.1 billion kroner,' stated FSA director, Jørn Astrup Hansen in his report. 'Yet at the end of 2009 - just 2 years later - losses were assessed at 4.6 billion kroner. Additional losses of 1.5 billion were also forecast for loan providers in the EBH Fund. Total losses can therefore be estimated at around 6 billion kroner,' concluded Hansen. According to Danish News, a man who was interested in purchasing Poulsen's house could not reach him, finding that his office, home and mobile telephone numbers had been discontinued. More people are saving more money but analysts say the high average for residents' bank account balances is somewhat misleading Since September 2008 when the financial crisis began in earnest, savings account deposits have increased by 11.9 billion kroner to 773.5 billion kroner, according to figures from the Central Bank. That figure corresponds to each of the 4.3 million adults in the country having an average of 179,000 kroner in their accounts. Economist Las Olsen of Danske Bank admitted that the nation's wealthiest have pulled the overall average up considerably, and that deposits tend to rise in line with the combination of lower consumption and higher income. 'The only explanation is that we're saving more. We have more and more money to spend but are actually spending less and less,' Olsen told financial daily Børsen. But he also added that those who are not fortunate enough to have a six-digit account balance are not necessarily poor. Olsen's conservative estimate is that Danish accounts are currently around 60 billion kroner higher than normal. He said he did not expect the surge in bank deposits to continue to rise, partly because income growth has levelled out. Another explanation for soaring bank deposits is also scepticism about traditional investments, said Olsen, who believes that right now more people are opting for cash in hand rather than investing their money in riskier ventures. One example is that far fewer people are putting money into their pension plans because of the ongoing debate over the tax aimed at compensating for ceiling retirement contributions. FINLAND The OMX in Helsinki ended the trading day Friday at 6,470.45, a drop of 2.1% for the day. Finnish lifting equipment maker Kone Corporation said Thursday that it has acquired Oregon-based Reliant Elevator Company, without disclosing financial details. Reliant specialises in elevator maintenance, repairs and modernisation. IT has 1,400 elevators in its maintenance base and an 18-strong workforce. Reliant and Kone will combine their elevator service operations under the Kone brand in the coming months. Finnish industrial machinery company Metso Oyj said Friday it won an order worth Eur180m to provide the main technology for a new kraft pulp mill of Russian pulp and paper maker Ilim Group, or Gruppa Ilim. The mill, to be located in Bratsk, in Irkutsk Oblast, is expected to be operational in 2012 and to have an annual production of 720,000 tonnes of bleached softwood market pulp. A total 30% of the order value was booked in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the remainder will be booked in the second quarter of 2010. Ilim Group's investments in the project total Eur570m. Metso will deliver a complete fibre line, comprising a digester, a screen room, an oxygen delignification system, brown stock washing and bleaching plants with wash presses, as well as a drying line with a Fourdrinier wet end and two baling lines. In addition, the company will supply an automation system for all process areas, as well as necessary analysers and special equipment for quality and runnability management. Nominal earnings of the Finnish wage and salary earners grew 3.3% year-on-year in the January to March period, the statistical office said on Friday. Meanwhile, real earnings, adjusted for the change in consumer prices, rose 3.1%. Nominal earnings of wage and salary earners increased 4.1% in the local government sector, while earnings in the central government sector grew 3.6%. Earnings in the private sector climbed 3%. Meanwhile, wage and salary earners' regular earnings increased 3.3% in the January to March period from the year before. Regular earnings refer to earnings for regular working hours exclusive of performance-based bonuses and other irregularly paid one-off items. According to revised data, average earnings grew 3.9% in 2009 and real earnings rose 3.9%. NORWAY Oslo's OBX concluded the week standing at 317.23, down 1.93%. Norwegian energy producer Scatec Solar and the Chinese Sanhe Group have agreed to establish a joint venture company with the aim to build 2.5 GW solar power parks in China. SanSca, a joint venture company between the Norwegian developer and supplier of PV solar parks and the Chinese renewable energy company Sanhe Group, Friday signed a historic agreement with Datang Renewable Energy Corporation. The partners will build a Green Energy Farm in Taonan, in the province of Jilin, consisting of 100 MW of Wind Power and 5 MW Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power, the latter as a part of China's National Golden Sun Program. The agreement was signed at a ceremony at the EXPO 2010 in Shanghai with the Governor of Jilin and the Norwegian Minister of Trade and Industry present. Further to the Jilin-project, SanSca and Datang Renewable Corp, part of China Datang Corporation, China's second-largest power producer, signed an agreement covering the realization of 2500 MW of PV plants in the provinces of Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Ningxia and Sichuan in the period 2011-2016. Under the agreement Sanhe Group and Scatec Solar will jointly develop the PV projects, while Scatec Solar will be the EPCI partner to design and build the PV plants. The purpose of the first 5 MW State-of-the-Art PV power generation plant in the Green Energy Farm which will be built and put in production this year, is to demonstrate cost-efficiency, high performance and optimal land use, and to serve as a benchmark for China's plan to build more than 25 GW solar power before 2020. As part of the cooperation between Chinese and Norwegian renewable energy companies, SanSca entered into an agreement with Norwegian Eltek Valere where Eltek will be the preferred supplier of inverters to these and other PV projects realized by SanSca. Norway's current account surplus narrowed in the first quarter, the latest report by the Statistics Norway showed on Wednesday. The current account surplus dropped to NOK 98 billion in the first quarter from NOK 102 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009. A year earlier, the current account surplus stood at NOK 72.85 billion. The goods and services balance stood at NOK 99.36 billion, larger than the NOK 97.87 billion in the previous month. Compared to the previous year, the total export value slipped 3% in the first quarter, while the total import value climbed 1%. Export value of goods stood at NOK 201 billion, which was NOK 8 billion lower than the previous year. Similarly, the mercantile imports value decreased NOK 7 billion from the previous quarter to NOK 107 billion. The balance of services stood at NOK 6 billion. Income and current transfers balance showed a shortfall of NOK 2 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to the NOK 4 billion surplus in the previous quarter. Net lending dropped to NOK 97 billion in the first quarter from NOK 102 billion, while direct investment fell to NOK 35 billion from NOK 46 billion. Norway's manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in May, a survey conducted by the logistics association NIMA and Fokus Bank showed on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers index (PMI) for manufacturing decreased to 50.1 in May from a revised 51.6 in the previous month. The PMI reading in April was revised from 51.9 reported initially. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. Economists had expected a reading of 52.3. Manufacturing sector expanded for the second straight month. The manufacturing output index dropped to 50.1 in May from 51.7 in the previous month, revised from 52.1 estimated initially. This was the lowest value since December last year. At the same time, new orders index slid to 47.2 from a revised 50.6 in April. The employment index dropped to 45.5 in May from 48.9 in the previous month. However, inventories index increased to 55.2 in May from 50 in April. Norwegian house prices increased in May, with the real estate industry associations reporting an annual price increase of 9.1%. House prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in underlying price development, the Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF) and the Association of Real Estate Undertakings (EFF) said Tuesday. House prices are 5.1% higher than in the previous peak month of August 2007. Adjusted for inflation, prices dropped 4.5% compared to August 2007. The average sales price of a dwelling so far in 2010 is NOK 2.55 million and the sale of a house now takes on average three days less time than in April, the survey showed. SPAIN In Madrid the IBEX closed out the day and the week at 8,923.40, down 3.80%. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits in Spain fell sharply in May, official figures have shown, giving some much needed respite for the Eurozone's worst-hit Labour market. The large decrease coincides with the start of the summer tourist season and offers some relief to Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who has seen his popularity wane in recent weeks. The number of unemployment benefit claimants decreased by 76,200 in May from April, the country's Labour ministry said. That is considerably higher than the 45,000 decrease anticipated by economists. Jobless claims slid by 24,200 in April. The figures will be welcomed by the government after enduring a torrid few days on the economic front. Last week, the Spanish parliament scraped through its latest round of austerity cuts through just a single vote, as Zapatero's Socialist government has seen public support dwindle. That was followed by a ratings downgrade by credit agency Fitch, which said the government's austerity drive will hamper the nation's growth prospects. Deputy Labour minister Maravillas Rojo said the decline in jobless claims during May was the largest recorded in five years, and excluding May 2005, the largest monthly drop since July 1998. "This is, without a doubt, a good figure considering the situation facing the economy," she said. But despite the fall, more than four million Spaniards were officially registered unemployed at the end of May. The Spanish economy emerged from recession after growing 0.1% between January and March. It came after six successive quarters of negative growth and followed a 0.1% contraction in the final three months of 2009. Last month, the International Monetary Fund called on Spain to urgently make a "radical overhaul" of its rigid Labour market. E.U. statistics estimate Spain's unemployment rate at 19.7% - the highest in the Eurozone and the second-highest in the whole of the European Union. Spanish consumer confidence diminished sharply in May, as households' expectations regarding the economic as well as the employment situation weakened and as their assessment of the current situation turned more negative. The consumer confidence indicator fell by 13.1 points to 65.1 in May from 78.2 in April, logging the steepest decline on record, the state-run Official Credit Institute said Wednesday. Consumers' perspective on the current situation deteriorated as the corresponding indicator dropped to 40 during the month from 50.6 in the previous month. Similarly, households' faith in the future economic situation also weakened with index falling to 90.2 from 105.8 in the previous month. The deterioration in confidence is seen mostly in expectations about the Labour market and in the component that relates to the outlook for the Spanish economy. Consumers' expectations were negatively impacted by the recent economic developments in the country, which echoed the ongoing turmoil in the European markets. The Spanish government on May 20th approved a 15 billion Euro austerity plan aimed at reducing the country's large fiscal deficit of more than 11% of the gross domestic product to 6% of GDP by 2011 and to 3% by 2013. The plan calls for slashing salaries of Cabinet ministers and other senior officials by 15% and also includes an average 5% pay cut for public sector workers beginning in June and a pay freeze beginning in 2011. While Spain managed to squeeze out of a recession, posting 0.1% GDP growth in the first quarter, the country's unemployment rate remains at 20%, almost twice the Euro zone average. Spain's services activity improved for the third consecutive month in May, Markit Economics said in a report on Thursday. The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose to 52.3 in May, from 50.9 in the preceding month. Although the rate of growth quickened to the fastest since October 2007, it remained only modest, the report showed. Moderate increases in both business activity and new orders were recorded in May amid uncertainty surrounding the wider economy. Employment fell again in May, extending the current sequence of job shedding to twenty-seven months. Further, the rate of input price inflation was marked in May, mainly due to higher salary payments. However, Spanish service providers continued to lower their charges. Although companies were optimistic that activity will be higher in twelve months' time, the level of sentiment reduced considerably since the previous month. PORTUGAL Lisbon's PSI General headed into the weekend at 2,476.44, a dip Friday of 2.15%. Portugal's new austerity plan cleared its first parliamentary hurdle Wednesday when the assembly voted to send the proposal to be studied and voted on by committees, a spokesman at the parliament's press office said. Following the committee votes, the plan will be voted on again by the full parliament for final approval. The date of the final vote hasn't been set yet. Portugal had a budget deficit equal to 9.4% of gross domestic product last year, and in March announced a plan to reduce that to 8.3% of GDP this year and to 6.6% of GDP next year. The plan failed to satisfy international financial markets, which continued to punish Portuguese debt. Prime Minister Jose Socrates last month unveiled this plan to speed the deficit reduction, to 7.3% of GDP this year and to 4.6% of GDP next year. The plan voted on raises the value-added tax and includes a temporary, additional tax on personal income above a certain level and on company profits. Government ministers and other top state employees will have their salaries reduced by 5%. All the measures are set to expire by the end of 2011, although both Socrates and Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos have said they could be extended if necessary to meet the deficit reduction targets. Portugal's industrial production increased at a slower pace in April, a report from Statistics Portugal showed on Monday. Industrial production rose 1.1% year-on-year in April, slower than 5.5% in the previous month. Output increased for the fourth consecutive month. A year earlier, industrial output decreased 9%. On a monthly basis, industrial output fell 4.4% in April, in contrast to the 7.4% increase in the preceding month. Production of intermediate goods grew 5.7% year-on-year in April, faster than 3.1% in the previous month. But, energy production fell 1%, following the 11.6% growth in March. Meanwhile, manufacturing output grew 1.1% on an annual basis in April, slower than 8.1% in the previous month. Month-on-month, manufacturing output was down 6.1%, after an 8.8% increase in March. Separately, the statistical office said retail sales turnover rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in April, slower than 1.9% in the previous month. Retail sales increased for the fifth straight month. A year earlier, retail sales fell 1.6%. Month-on-month, retail sales rose 0.4% in April, after falling 1.3% in March. ITALY Italy's FTSE MIB Index dropped 738.62, or 3.8%, to 18,734.73 in Milan. The following stocks were among the most active on the Italian market Friday. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena retreated 4.7% to 84 cents as bank stocks declined across Europe. "Bank stocks are still affected by too many question marks," said Alberto Magnani, a fund manager at Abbacus Sim SpA in Genoa, Italy. "Visibility on earnings is too low and the market remains nervous." Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP IM) dropped 6% to 1.99 Euros. UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) lost 5.7% to 1.56 Euros. Unione di Banche Italiane ScpA (UBI IM) declined 5.7% to 6.76 Euros. Indesit Company gained 14.5 cents, or 1.6%, to 9.30 Euros, a fourth gain this week. Cheuvreux reiterated an "outperform" rating on Italy's biggest home- appliance maker, saying in a note that "Russia showed good recovery signals in April and May." The brokerage also noted that "acquisitions are easily financially sustainable," and "Indesit could be interested in a high-end brand or market shares." The company attended Cheuvreux's small-caps conference. Pirelli & C. Real Estate fell 0.9% to 34.65 cents, after gaining as much as 8.7%. Morgan Stanley, the world's largest brokerage, and investors including Carlo Puri Negri and Matteo Arpe are considering a purchase of the real estate company, according to Italian magazine Il Mondo. Morgan Stanley may invest as much as 200 million Euros ($244 million) in an offer, while a group of investors, led by Banca Profilo SpA Chairman Arpe and former Pirelli RE executive Puri Negri, may contribute another 200 million Euros, the magazine reported, without saying where it got the information. A spokesman for Sator SpA and Profilo denied the report. "We believe that Pirelli & C., which controls 58% of Pirelli RE, would prefer the tender to be launched after the spinoff to give fresh money to Camfin SpA," Centrobanca said in a note. Pirelli shares 0.8% to 45.05 cents. STMicroelectronics NV (STM IM) rose 0.5% to 6.61 Euros, a third straight gain. UBS AG upgraded Europe's largest chipmaker to "neutral" from "sell." The brokerage said that "while structural concerns remain, STMicro is a strong beneficiary of the recent currency moves." STMicro also had its recommendation lifted to "buy" from "accumulate" at Banca Akros, while Piper Jaffray increased its price estimate to 7.6 Euros from 7 Euros. Italy's unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.9% in April, data released by statistical agency ISTAT showed on Tuesday. The unemployment rate stood at 8.8% in March. Unemployment has been steadily on the rise since April last year, when the jobless rate stood at 7.4%. A total of 22.8 million persons were unemployed in April. Some 2.2 million Italians were unemployed while 14.8 million were not in the Labour forece. Italy's service sector expanded at a slower pace in May, results of a survey by Markit Economics showed on Thursday. The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for services dropped to 53.7 in May from 54.5 in the previous month. This was the second straight month of decrease in growth after a two-and-a-half year peak recorded in March. Economists had expected a reading of 54.8 for May. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. New business growth slowed to the weakest level since February, while service sector companies showed a general improvement in demand and winning high value of orders. However, the ongoing Eurozone debt crisis had apparently undermined market confidence. Payroll employment dropped as companies chose not to replace staff and instead meet higher workloads with fewer employees. Staffing levels fell for the 20th month. Input price inflation climbed for the tenth consecutive month in May, mainly due to higher petrol prices. Markit Economics said on Tuesday that the Markit / ADACI Italy manufacturing purchasing managers' index stood at a seasonally adjusted 54.0 in May, down from 54.3 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below suggests contraction. Despite the fall, the PMI still points to a solid expansion in manufacturing activity. Manufacturing output rose for the eighth straight month in May, albeit at its weakest pace in three months. New orders were also up for the eighth consecutive month, although at a slower pace than in the previous month. New orders received from abroad rose at the fastest pace since June 2006. Employment in the sector continued to fall, although at the weakest pace since August 2008. Firms cited restructuring as the primary driver for the latest round of job cuts. GREECE The Athex Composite in ... you guessed it, Athens closed out the week at 1,484.90, the worst performance on the day for a European bourse, down 5.03%. Greece's cash-strapped government will sell off stakes in a string of state-owned companies in a bid to raise 1 billion Euros annually over the next three years that will go toward paying down debt, officials said Thursday. "The government's decision is to step up privatization procedures... in order to extract value from major state assets," Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou told a press conference. Under the planned sell-off, Greece will sell a 49% stake in TRAINOSE, a subsidiary of railway company OSE, and concede management control. It will also reform OSE, which has accumulated debts of some 10 billion Euros and is running up daily losses of close to 3 million Euros, by scrapping routes causing the greatest financial harm. "Clearly this situation with the railways cannot be allowed to continue," Infrastructure Minister Dimitris Reppas said. He said the government would re-evaluate railway workers' skills, keep those who are needed and transfer others to different public sector jobs - as Greek law forbids the sacking of civil servants. The government will also sell a 10% stake in Athens water utility (EYDAP) and a 23% stake in the Thessaloniki water company (EYATH). Papaconstantinou said the state would sell 39% of loss-making Hellenic Post. The government also intends to catalog and evaluate its extensive real estate assets, with a view to development. "The Greek state owns huge real estate assets, whose precise value has never been calculated," Papaconstantinou said. Additionally, the state will extend the concession of Athens International Airport, the country's biggest airport which is managed by German construction company Hochtief AG. Companies will be created to manage ports, shares in which may be made available to the public. The Greek state would retain a stake of at least 51% in such companies. Papaconstantinou added that Greece will maintain its holdings in Public Power Corporation and OTE telecom, holding onto stakes of 51% and 20% respectively. Markit Economics said on Tuesday that the Greece manufacturing purchasing managers' index stood at a seasonally adjusted 41.8 in May, down from 43.6 in the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below suggests contraction. This marks the lowest reading in the headline PMI in over a year. Manufacturing output was cut sharply in May as new business volumes shrank further. Total new business decreased for the ninth straight month. Data indicated that total new business fell more steeply than new export orders. Respondents linked weak demand for their goods to difficult economic conditions and customers' financial difficulties. |
| The UK Market
Did it follow the Global trend ..... | Icap was among the few winners as Friday's session proved another day of extreme volatility. Shares in the interdealer broker gained 0.7% to 394p after the turbulent market conditions of recent weeks led its trading volumes to spike. May electronic trading was up 61% year-on-year and 18% ahead of April with turnover in the higher margin foreign exchange markets up 60% and 39%, respectively, Icap said. "Although we are careful about extrapolating volume trends from periods of exceptional volatility, in our view the year-to-date trends suggest upside to our electronic revenue forecast," said Credit Suisse. "Given electronic trading is largely a fixed cost base and has much higher incremental margins than voice broking, we believe that this should result in earnings growth in the coming year pacing ahead of revenue growth," the broker added. Weaker-than-expected US jobs figures sent the wider market tumbling. Having risen as much as 1% in the morning, the FTSE 100 closed down by 1.6%, or 85.18 points, to 5,126. That pushed the Footsie 1.2% lower for the week and continued a trend of volatility that had seen the index move by more than 1% intraday every day except one since the start of May. Bank stocks led Friday's fallers following rumours about derivatives losses at Société Générale and fear that Hungary could default. Royal Bank of Scotland dropped 5.5% to 43½p, making it the sharpest blue chip faller, while Barclays was 4.7% weaker at 288½p and HSBC fell 1.5% to 630p. Miners were the Footsie's other main drag with ENRC losing 4.4% to 985½p and Vedanta Resources down 5.2% to £21.75. Kazakhmys lost 5% to £11.19 as Nomura repeated "reduce" advice. Considering Kazakhmys as a copper miner was wrong, given that its stakes in ENRC and a Kazakh power plant provide 70% of its value, it said. BP - once again the day's main talking point - traded as high as 452¾p before ending at 433¼p, up just 0.3%. Speaking to investors, chief executive Tony Hayward stopped short of committing to hold the group's dividend. BAE Systems lost 1% to 321p after Goldman Sachs highlighted a report from the Royal United Services Institute think-tank warning that defence spending cuts could come sooner and be deeper than expected. The UK and US, whose defence secretary made a similar warning last month, accounted for about 70% of BAE's sales, Goldman noted. Home Retail Group was 3.4% weaker to 242p after Investec cut its stock off its "buy" list. Drugmaker Shire lost 2.1% to £14.34 after RBS, repeating "sell" advice, said generic competition for its key franchises was emerging sooner than expected. Among the mid-caps, Chloride edged 1.4% higher at 286p amid speculation that Emerson Electric was set to raise its bid. The power supply maker has been on a shareholder roadshow this week, having in April rejected an indicative offer from Emerson of 275p per share. Salamander Energy was up 3.3% to 233½p, helped by BarCap starting coverage in a sector review with a 330p target price. Jardine Lloyd Thompson slipped 1.8% to 555p after Goldman cut the reinsurer from its "buy" list on valuation grounds. Goldman also turned more cautious on Great Portland Estates, which was down 5% to 297½p. |
| Asia Pacific Regional Markets
Did they set the tone or follow the lead ..... | JAPAN Japanese shares ended down 0.13% on Friday as investors locked in profits after seeing a moderate rise on the election of a new prime minister, brokers said. The headline Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell 13.00 points to 9,901.19. The Topix index of all first section shares slipped 0.48 points or 0.05% to 890.16. The Nikkei saw a moderate rise early in the afternoon after the ruling Democratic Party of Japan elected former finance minister Naoto Kan as its new leader. Profit taking quickly emerged to push the index back into negative territory. Kan, who was later elected prime minister in parliament, has advocated a weaker yen, which is supportive of Japanese exporters. Kan has also supported raising the consumption tax to rebuild ailing government finances. The index had soared 3.24% on Thursday as dealers priced in Kan's expected election. Honda sank 0.14% to 2,825 yen due partly to worries over its operations in China after workers there staged a strike, forcing the temporary shutdown of its plants. The automaker on Thursday said it would resume production at three of its auto assembly joint ventures on Friday and Saturday, but has not offered a timeline for a return to full output. Fuji Heavy Industries outperformed the market, rising 6.99% to 566 yen after a daily reported that the company is expected to post record operating profit this fiscal year, due to brisk sales in North America. The Nikkei business newspaper said the carmaker is expected to post 45 billion yen ($A576.35 million) in operating profit for the fiscal year ending in March 2011, up 40% from the previous year. SOUTH KOREA South Korean shares closed flat Friday after lurching in and out of positive territory as investors awaited direction from forthcoming US jobs data. Taking a breather after a sharp rise this week, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, added 2.29 points to close at 1664.13, with gains in technology and auto stocks offsetting losses in banks. Foreigners extended their buying spree into a second straight day, picking up a net KRW116.1 billion worth of shares. Domestic institutions bought KRW82.9 billion, while local retail investors sold a net KRW135.7 billion worth of stocks. Among car makers, Kia Motors jumped 5.7% to KRW32,750, hitting a record high amid ongoing momentum from sales of new cars, including the K5 model, and expectations it will report higher earnings. Ssangyong Motor ended the session up 1.9% at KRW13,700 after six firms were selected to conduct a preliminary due diligence on the cash-strapped car maker as part of the proposed sale of Ssangyong Motor. Hyundai Motor rose 1.5% to KRW134,000 amid expectations for a constant expansion of its global market share. Technology stocks rebounded, tracking their US peers on revived expectations that the rising popularity of smart phones will help keep demand for both chips and display panels healthy. Samsung Electronics added 2.1% to KRW793,000 and LG Display gained 2.4% to KRW45,300. Hynix Semiconductor jumped 6% to KRW26,400 as memory chip prices start to show signs of stabilizing after a recent sharp drop, said Meritz Securities analyst Lee Sun-tae, adding "the mini chip cycle seems to have hit a bottom while the semiconductor sector is still believed to be in a bullish cycle for the longer term." Kyobo Securities' analyst Jay Koo added, "Fitch's upgrades of Hynix's (long-term foreign currency) IDR (issuer default rating) and debt ratings is (also) positive news as it will help Hynix reduce borrowing costs in the future. But the impact on Hynix stock is not big as such upgrades were anticipated." Samsung SDI added 4.1% to KRW177,000, extending Thursday's gain on expectations it will benefit from a rise in sales of Samsung Electronics' recently launched Galaxy S smart phones. But banks took a breather after Thursday's strong rallies. KB Financial Group pulled back 1.9% to KRW51,800 and Woori Finance Holdings retreated 3.8% to KRW15,250. Steelmakers also fell sharply, reflecting the absence of any sign steel prices will pick up soon, analysts said. Posco dropped 4.1% to KRW456,000 and Hyundai Steel declined 3.7% to KRW85,000. HONG KONG Hong Kong shares ended flat Friday after a sluggish session in which trading volume fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half months, as investors moved to the sidelines ahead of US jobs data later in the day. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell seven points, or 0.03%, to 19,780.07 after trading between 19,658.66 and 19,841.68. The index edged up 0.1% for the week. Market volume totaled HK$45.41 billion, down sharply from HK$51.59 billion Thursday and the lowest level since HK$43.9 billion on Feb. 22. Hong Kong Exchanges closed 0.1% lower at HK$119.00 despite sources saying Agricultural Bank of China is moving ahead with what could be biggest IPO in history. The bank is seeking to raise between US$20 billion and US$30 billion in an IPO ahead of a mid-July listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Analysts said the recent shrinkage in the bourse's trading volume may pressure HKEx's second-quarter earnings. GuocoCapital kept its sell rating on the stock, noting average daily trading volume on the exchange has declined significantly from HK$69 billion in April. Chinese home appliance companies were strong after China's Ministry of Commerce said it will expand its trade-in program to subsidize home appliance purchases to more areas of the country and extend it to the end of 2011. GOME rose 3.5% to HK$2.34, TCL Multimedia leapt 7.3% to HK$5.61 and Skyworth was up 2.1% at HK$6.75. Resources companies were weak after Thursday's gains, with Cnooc down 1.0% at HK$12.34 and Chalco down 1.7% at HK$6.30. Cnooc was up 3.0% and Chalco rose 3.4% Thursday. HSBC said near-term margin pressure remains on Chalco due to weaker aluminum prices. It cut its target on the stock to HK$5.50 from HK$7.00 and kept its underweight rating after revising down its 2010 earnings view by 15% to CNY3 billion because of lower-than-expected aluminium prices. CHINA China's shares ended flat Friday as liquidity pressure from the imminent launch of Agricultural Bank's up to $30 billion initial public offering offset hopes China will hold off on further tightening measures following a newspaper report of a slowdown in new loans last month. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended at 2553.59, almost unchanged from Thursday's close of 2552.66. The index is down 3.8% this week. The tech-heavy Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.0%, or 10.17 points, to 1034.93 because of a media report China will soon introduce measures to support its software industry. Analysts said they expect the domestic stock market to keep consolidating next week before China issues May's economic data on June 11, including the headline inflation rate and investment figures. Investors are awaiting the data to gauge economic trends after two purchasing managers indexes issued Tuesday showed the growth in China's manufacturing activity is slowing, raising concerns Beijing's recent tightening measures could lead to a double dip in the economy, said analysts. The Hong Kong stock exchange is due to hold a hearing Thursday on Agricultural Bank's listing in the city and institutional investors will be invited to make bids for the IPO's A-share portion the following week, people familiar with the situation said. Heavyweight banks fell, with Bank of China off 1.6% at CNY3.64 and China Construction Bank down 0.6% at CNY4.86. However, the benchmark Shanghai index recovered losses in the afternoon because of easing concerns over short-term increases in China's benchmark interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio for banks following a report in the Century Weekly that new loans slowed last month, said analysts. The newspaper reported Thursday afternoon that China's banks issued slightly more than CNY600 billion worth of new loans in May, down from CNY774.0 billion in April. The reported slowdown in loan growth suggests Beijing's credit-tightening measures earlier this year have had an impact on curbing credit. Software designers extended gains because of a Shanghai Securities News report Thursday that said a government plan to boost the industry has been submitted by the industry ministry for approval by the Cabinet. Beijing Join-Cheer Software surged by the 10% daily limit to CNY25.91, and Shandong Inspur Software also soared by the daily limit to CNY13.13. TAIWAN Taiwan share prices closed down 0.21% Friday as profit taking emerged to erode early gains after the bourse staged a strong rebound in the previous session, dealers said later that day. The weighted index fell 15.69 points to 7,344.59 after moving between 7,337.35 and 7,377.56 on turnover of NT$67.58 billion (US$2.10 billion). The market opened 0.23% higher on follow-through buying from the previous day's 2.28% jump, but profit taking emerged in mid-morning trade to compromise the earlier gains, with the index moving closer to the nearest resistance of around 7,400 points, the dealers said. A total of 1,163 stocks closed up and 1,431 were down, with 420 remaining unchanged. The financial sector suffered the heaviest losses, down 0.9%, followed by a 0.6% fall in the construction sector, while cement, along with paper and pulp, lost 0.5%. The foodstuff sector fell 0.4%, followed by machinery and electronics with a 0.1% decline, while the textile sector closed up 0.4% and the plastics and chemicals sector was unchanged. Cathay Financial fell 1.92% to NT$45.95 and Fubon Financial lost 0.54% to end at NT$36.85. United Microelectronics Corp. dropped 1.68% to NT$14.65, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. closed up 0.33% at NT$61.00. THE PHILIPPINES The stock market ended flat on Friday, tracking the sideways movement of most of the major Asian bourses. "After yesterday's rally, buying activity was moderate and was confined to select issues," a trader said. At the close of the session, the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index was up 1.82 points or 0.05% at 3,357.05. The broader all-share index rose 13.47 points or 0.6% to 2,123.86. Overall, market breadth was positive. Advancers outnumbered decliners, 67 to 43, while 58 issues were unchanged. A total of 1.4 billion shares valued at a hefty P7.44 billion were traded today. About 40% of that amount, however, came from trading in just one stock: SM Prime Holdings Inc. There were several cross trades on SM Prime, one of which involved 100 million shares. SM Prime ended unchanged at P11 apiece. Gokongwei firms were among the day's stellar performers. JG Summit Holdings Inc. reached an all time high of P16 intraday before closing flat at 15.50. Meantime, its snack food unit, Universal Robina Corp., added 7.5% to P28.50. This was the company's highest closing price since it listed in March 1994. Another Gokongwei-led firm, Digital Telecommunications Philippines Inc. (Digitel), climbed 2.6% to P1.58. Today's advance brought the stock's week on week gains to 16.2%. Investors bought the stock on optimism that its mobile subscriber base will increase as it boosts its network. Finally, Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc., and unit Aboitiz Power Corp. closed at their highest levels since listing at the exchange on the back of analysts' upgrades, and news that the group's hydro power plants resumed operations. AEV was up by as much as 3.8% before closing higher by 2.5% at P20. Aboitiz Power gained 4.2% to P18.50. SINGAPORE Singapore shares ended 0.5% higher in quiet trading on Friday. The key Strait Times Index (STI) rose 13.04 points to end at 2,806.51, finishing above 2,800 for the first time in more than two weeks. But volume stayed thin ahead of the release of the US Department of Labour's May non-farm payrolls data due later Friday. Overall volume traded on the Singapore market was 920 million shares - a 10-month low - worth S$1.09b. In the broader market, gainers outnumbered losers 262 to 164. Singapore shares were helped by two days of positive performances on Wall Street. Olam International rose 3.7% to S$2.50 on news the commodities trading group is looking to raise US$300 million in a three-year term loan to fund its US operations. Singapore Exchange rose 0.8% to S$7.45 after it announced a S$250 million investment in its trading technology on Thursday. CIMB noted that if the Exchange starts to see high-frequency trades coming through in 2011, there could be the potential to increase earnings guidance for the 2012 financial year. MALAYSIA Late selling pressure, ahead of the weekend, saw share prices close mixed on Bursa Malaysia Friday, said dealers. Although most of the indicies were in positive territory across the bourse, profit-taking in most heavyweights dragged the key-composite index lower. The benchmark index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) eased 0.05 of a point, or 0.04%, to close at 1,294.39 after opening 0.12 of point firmer at 1,294.56. Jupiter Securities Head of Research Pong Teng Siew said investors remained cautious and were kept "on their toes" because of overnight external changes which could affect the market and of sudden swings in particular stock prices. The FBM Emas Index rose 6.39 points to 8,704.52, FBM70 Index gained 30.33 points to 8,598.62 and the FBM Ace Index added 6.88 points to 3,784.05. The Finance Index increased 22.62 points to 11,642.45, the Industrial Index added 5.85 points to 2,595.64 but the Plantation Index fell 11.97 points to 6,099.28. Gainers led losers 313 to 275 with 277 counters unchanged, 511 were untraded and 33 others were suspended. Volume increased to 674.177 million shares, valued at RM988.572 million, from 655.197 million shares, valued at RM1.243 billion, on Thursday. Among actives, Talam was flat at 14 sen, Kenmark gained 14.5 sen to 26 sen but Affin-WC and Green Packet-WA shed half-a-sen each to five sen and 43 sen, respectively. Heavyweights, Maybank and Maxis rose three sen each to RM7.38 and RM5.28, respectively, while CIMB Group shed one sen to RM6.92. IOI Corp fell four sen to RM4.97 while Axiata and Genting dropped two sen each to RM3.75 and RM6.96, respectively. Top losers included Lafarge, which declined 12 sen, to RM6.47 while Tan Chong and Petronas Dagangan decreased 11 sen each to RM4.29 and RM9.08, respectively. Top gainers Kluang Rubber added 30 sen to RM2.20, British American Tobacco gained 26 sen to RM44.26 and F&N firmed 24 sen to RM11.54. The main market volume increased to 613.44 million shares, worth RM975.326 million, from Thursday's 535.623 million shares, worth RM1.223 billion. However, the ACE Market volume fell to 32.71 million units, valued at RM3.974 million, against 60.989 million units, valued at RM7.041 million, registered previously. Warrants dropped to 21.63 million units, worth RM3.019 million, from 50.226 million units, worth RM6.287 million, registered Thursday. Consumer products accounted for 128.996 million shares traded on the main market, industrial products 60.042 million, construction 36.289 million, trade and services 104.206 million, technology 42.07 million, infrastructure 7.14 million, finance 75.77 million, hotels 1.72 million, properties 143.38 million, plantations 12.87 million, mining nil, REITs 828,500 and closed/fund 95,000 INDONESIA Jakarta, Asia's second best performer this year, recorded a $146 million net foreign inflow for the week. Palm plantation firm Astra Agro Lestari surged 9.1% on higher palm oil prices while Astra International, top automotive distributor, gained 1.9%, building on a 3.8% rise the previous session. Jakarta rose 0.44% or 12.27 points to 2,823.25. THAILAND Thai stocks climbed to their highest in three weeks on Friday as investors bought resource shares seen safe from domestic political risks while the region climbed higher as markets awaited US payrolls data. The Thai stock market regained foreign inflows this week, with net foreign buying worth a net $32.7 million. It suffered a huge $1.80 billion foreign sell-off in May as fears over political risks grew amid anti-government protests. The benchmark SET index finished up 0.7% at 771.48. It gained 4.6% for the week, Southeast Asia's best performer, as cheaply valued shares also attracted Thai institutional investors. Thai shares trade at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 times, compared with Singapore's 12.4, Malaysia's 13, the Philippines' 12.2, Indonesia's 13.4 and Vietnam's 11.2. Among gainers, Thai coal miners gained on expectation coal demand would rise in the upcoming peak season for electricity consumption in China, from June to August. Banpu, the biggest, up 1.7% and small peer Lanna Resources up 0.6%. Prime Sun Power and Bangkok Solar Power have signed a strategic investment agreement where Bangkok Solar Power will attain up to 6,639,063 shares of PSP common stock at €7.73 per share. All shares issued to BSP are subject to a lock-up period through December 31, 2013. The purchase price was valued off of PSP's current business plan, projected growth and the company's ability to help BSP access the European solar market. INDIA Indian equities ended in the positive terrain for the third consecutive day as sentiments in global markets turned bullish ahead of US Jobs Data. FMCG and IT stocks led the upmove while metals and power space showed resistance. Indices opened on a subdued note due to lack of cues from Asian peers. Traders who awaited some positive news to take the indices above psychological levels got the boost in the form on firm opening of European markets. Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex closed at 17117.69, up 95.36 points or 0.56%. The 30-share index hit a low of 16963.92 and high of 17150.42. National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at 5135.50, up 25 points or 0.49%. The index touched a low of 5091.60 and high of 5147.90. But sustainability above this level still remains guess because of the low volume. However the bullish trend is expected to resume only above 5220 levels. Above this level, one can target Nifty to 5400 and 5600 in medium term. Failing to clear 5220, Nifty is expected to test the 4900 and 4800 levels. Technically, indicators suggest a strong consolidation levels possibly between 4900 - 5150 levels in the upcoming trading sessions," said an analyst from a local brokerage firm. BSE Midcap Index was up 0.21% and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.15% higher. Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE FMCG Index gained 1.69% and BSE IT Index advanced 0.93%. BSE Metal Index slipped 0.24% and BSE Power Index declined 0.19%. Maruti Suzuki (2.64%), SBI (2.42%), Reliance Communications (2.25%), ITC (2.07%) and HUL (1.74%) were amongst the top Sensex gainers. ONGC (-1.73%), HDFC Bank (-0.96%), Tata Power (-0.61%), BHEL (-0.50%) and Jindal Steel (-0.47%) were the major losers. Hindustan Unilever plans to buy back shares aimed at boosting stock prices and raising per share earnings in future. The company said its board would meet on June 11 to decide on the price at which it may buy back the shares and the quantity. Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 627 gainers against 664 declines. AUSTRALIA The Australian sharemarket closed lower after receiving mixed leads from overnight trading overseas, with Wall Street indices slightly higher, precious metals and copper lower, but oil finishing up. At the market close, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index slipped 0.81% to 4,449.4, while the broader All Ordinaries index eased 0.75% to 4,472.4. The big four banks all reversed, with ANZ Banking Group edging down 0.48% to $22.64, Commonwealth Bank of Australia sliding 0.92% to $51.47 and Westpac Banking Corporation easing 1.38% to $22.76. National Australia Bank shares relinquished 2.9% to $24.36, after coming out of a trading halt in morning trade as the lender confirmed it is in talks with three potential buyers for AXA Asia-Pacific Ltd's key retail North investment platform, as part of its effort to resurrect a $14 billion takeover bid for AXA APH. ANZ chief Mike Smith has also weighed into the resource super profits tax debate, saying the federal government's proposed 40% rent tax risks sending international investment away from Australia as investors review their assessment of sovereign risk. Investment bank Macquarie Group managed to put on 0.63% to $44.25. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has said that he remains confident his government's proposed tax on mining companies is the right policy, despite Xstrata's recent shelving of the expansion of two Queensland projects. The major miners weakened, with BHP Billiton losing 2.24% to $37.87 and Rio Tinto backtracking 2.11% to $67.59. Junior iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group sank 2.35% to $4.15. Gold miners regained some ground, with Lihir Gold picking up 0.02% to $4.02 and Newcrest Mining losing 0.27 to $32.41. Elsewhere in the resources sector, oil companies were mixed, as Oil Search shares lost 0.52% to $5.66, Santos climbed 1.73% to $12.92 and Woodside Petroleum slipped 0.47% to $43.99. The retail sector was also mixed, with David Jones putting on 0.23 to $4.33 and rival department store Myer easing 0.94% to $3.13. Harvey Norman was flat at $3.42 and JB Hi-Fi gained 1.59% to $19.10. Supermarket giant Woolworths gave back 0.98% to $27.01 and Coles-owner Wesfarmers reversed 1.08% to $29.09. In economic news on Friday, the Australian Office of Financial Management conducted an auction of $700 million in April 15, 2015, Treasury bonds. In equities news, Asciano Group chief executive Mark Rowsthorn addressed an American Chamber of Commerce in Australia luncheon in Melbourne. On Thursday, The Australian sharemarket snapped a three-session losing streak to close firmly higher, buoyed by strong overseas leads. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index rose 105 points, or 2.4%, to 4,486, while the broader All Ordinaries rose 102.5 points, or 2.33%, to 4,506.2. NEW ZEALAND New Zealand shares rose, as Telecom climbed from a two-decade low and NZX extended its slide since the announcement it had missed been chosen as the new electricity forwards market. The NZX 50 Index rose 6.03, or 0.2%, to 3030.13, its second daily gain. Within the index, 19 stocks rose, 15 fell and 16 were unchanged. Turnover was $52 million. Telecom rose 1.6% to $1.86. The shares fell to $1.83 yesterday, the lowest since it was a fledgling stock on the exchange in the early 1990s. At today's price, the stock has a dividend yield of 19.6% based on its payments over the past 12 months. Telstra, which yields 13%, rose 1.6% to $3.83. New Zealand Oil & Gas rose 2.9% to $1.40 and Pan Pacific Petroleum gained 3.9% to 27 cents, the biggest gain on the NZX 50 today, as the price of crude oil held above US$74 a barrel. NZX fell 1.9% to $1.55, adding to yesterday's 1.9% slide, when the country's five top electricity generators said they would use the ASX to operate a new electricity forward market. NZX chief executive Mark Weldon though says the dairy derivatives plan is still in tact - story here NZX, whose stock has fallen by about a third this year, has been positioning itself to grow from new derivatives markets, and told an investor presentation in March that it was anticipating half of its revenues to come from derivatives trading in five years time. Pike River Coal fell 3.1% to 95 cents. PGG Wrightson fell 1.8% to 54 cents. Wakefield Health was unchanged at $7 after announcing a sweetened offer for Norfolk Investments, which controls Tauranga's Grace Hospital, and said it has binding acceptances for more than 50% of the stock. It lifted its offer to $3.60 a share from $3.52, valuing the target at about $23 million. |
| Global Commodities
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' ..... | Cocoa continued its strong run higher on commodities markets on Friday, as falling inventories and news of poor crops added to its momentum. Liffe July cocoa futures jumped 1.5% to a fresh peak of £2,588 a tonne, the highest level in almost 33 years. The second front-month contract, usually seen as the industry benchmark, gained 0.7% to £2,416, just short of its own near-33-year high of £2,430. That left traders scrambling to cover positions for the nearby contract. As prices rose, industrial consumers of cocoa, the bean used to make chocolate, bought protection against even higher prices by buying call options, which give the right but not the obligation to purchase the commodity at a pre-determined price. But as the price of the spot contract, which expires on July 15, continued to rise, the banks who sold those call options have been scrambling to hedge themselves by buying futures. Oil and base metals gained on a slither of returning risk appetite. Nymex July West Texas Intermediate pushed above $75 a barrel, up 43 cents at $75.06, while ICE July Brent gained 75 cents to $76.16 - a two-week high. Meanwhile, gold was steady, down just 0.3% at $1,203.05 a troy ounce. The yellow metal has fallen back in recent days, as investors appear to have paused for breath. The second-largest public pension fund in America has approved its first investment in commodities in a sign of the growing trend for institutional investors to move into raw materials as a diversification strategy and an inflation hedge. The California State Teachers' Retirement System said "the Calstrs investment committee voted to move ahead with an allocation to commodities", adding that a plan for the investment would be developed and presented to the board later in the year. The decision comes as US federal commodities regulators explore whether to impose limits on institutional investors' exposure to raw materials markets. Critics, including several senior lawmakers in Washington, worry that big investors helped inflate commodity prices in 2008 when oil, wheat, cotton and other markets surged. Calstrs, which holds $138.5bn in assets, follows its neighbour, the $198.7bn California Public Employees' Retirement System, or Calpers, into the commodities asset class. The huge Dutch pension funds PGGM and ABP pioneered investing in commodities in 2003. Other European funds, such as the UK's BT pension scheme and France's state-owned Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites, as well as US-based schemes, including the Teacher Retirement System of Texas and the Teachers Retirement System of the State of Illinois, have also diversified into commodities since 2005. The allocations are relatively small, however, with most pension funds investing just 1-2% of their assets in commodities. Calstrs staff said in a report that "commodities can serve a strategic role in Calstrs' Absolute Return allocation as one potential hedge against inflation or negative shocks impacting other investment markets". |
| Global Currencies
In for a Penny, in for a Pound ..... | 
The Euro tumbled below $1.20 for the first time in more than four years as speculation the European sovereign-debt crisis is widening helped push investors to the safest currencies. The Euro dropped 1.5% to $1.1984 at 4:33 p.m. in New York, from $1.2163 Thursday. It touched $1.1956, the lowest level since March 2006, and fell 2.4% for the week. The shared currency tumbled 2.3% to 110.22 Yen, from 112.76. The Dollar fell 0.8% Friday and rose 1% this week to 91.93 Yen, from 92.71 Yen. The Dollar surged on Friday as investors dashed for cover after weaker-than-expected US employment data and concerns that Hungary's economy may be in a perilous condition. Non-farm payrolls data showed that 431,000 jobs were created in the US in May, falling short of most forecasts, which had factored in a huge intake of government jobs in the census department. Hungary's forint fell 2% to Ft287.76 versus the Euro after Peter Szijjarto, a spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, said Hungary's economy was in a "very grave situation" due to the last government manipulating official data. As investors clamoured for havens, the Dollar climbed nearly a cent and a half versus the Euro, to stand 1% higher at $1.2042. The Yen had been one of the poorest performers this week, driven lower by speculation Naoto Kan, Japan's new prime minister, would support a weak currency and actively encourage intervention in the market to stop it appreciating. Mr Kan was expected to join the trend towards fiscal austerity, taking a tough stance on reining in the country's vast public debt. For these efforts, a weaker Yen would be beneficial and Mr Kan, when finance minister, was ready to intervene if the Yen moved excessively. But haven flows into the currency on Friday slashed its losses. Indeed, the Yen was up 0.8% on the week against the Euro at Y110.86 as the single currency fell across the board following the comments from Hungary. The Yen remained 1.1% lower over the week versus the Dollar at Y92.01, and lost 1.8% to Y134.01 against Sterling. The Canadian Dollar gained ground against its US neighbour as investors ignored a warning from the Bank of Canada not to bet on further near-term interest rate rises. The BoC was the first of the G7 central banks to increase rates, lifting its main overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% on Tuesday. The central bank said that given an uncertain outlook, further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed against domestic and global economic developments. In spite of Friday's losses, the Canadian Dollar rose 0.5% over the week to C$1.0483 against the US Dollar. Data from the UK and the Eurozone were generally lacklustre, but Sterling and Euro took diverging paths, the single currency undermined by lingering Eurozone debt concerns, while the Pound pushed higher on improving risk sentiment. The South African Rand tracked the weak tone across financial markets, touching a session low of 7.7970 against the Dollar, its weakest level since 26 May. And as always, rounding out currencies here in China where the RMB fell against the US Dollar late Friday afternoon. On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.8288, up from Thursday's close of CNY6.8282. It traded between CNY6.8285 and CNY6.8298. The Dollar is likely to trade between CNY6.8285 and CNY6.8300 next week. |
| China
Key news eminating from China this week ..... |
 Shanghai banks' ratio of delinquent home mortgages may more than quadruple if property prices in China's wealthiest city plunge 30%, according to the nation's banking regulator. The measure would jump to 1.58% from 0.34% as of April 30 if prices were to fall in what the Shanghai branch of the China Banking Regulatory Commission called a "worst-case scenario." The overall non-performing loan ratio would increase to 1.41% from 1.04%, the CBRC branch said in a statement Friday, citing a stress test based on March 31 figures. China's government unleashed a $1.4 trillion lending boom last year to stimulate the economy and is now stepping up measures to slow the surge in property prices. Shanghai posted the biggest gains in luxury home prices last year among 56 markets worldwide studied by Knight Frank LLP, according to a March report from the London-based property broker. Local and foreign banks in Shanghai face a "loss" of about 5 billion RMB ($732 million) if prices were to fall 30%, the Shanghai branch of the banking regulator said. The estimate equals 8% of the combined pretax income in 2009 at the lenders, it said. The government has restricted pre-sales by developers, curbed loans for third-home purchases, raised minimum mortgage rates and tightened down-payment requirements for second-home purchases since April. An index tracking 34 real estate firms traded in Shanghai has dropped 29% this year, compared with a 22% drop in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index. Property lending has slowed "significantly" since April, the regulator said in Friday's release. New loans to real estate developers amounted to 3.4 billion RMB in Shanghai in April, less than 30% of the average monthly increase in the first quarter. Prices for new homes in Shanghai dropped 16% in the week ended May 23 to below 20,000 RMB per square meter from the previous week, according to property consultant Shanghai UWin Real Estate Information Services Co ********************** ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. aims to raise funds for overseas investments ahead of local rivals to tap a rebound in global equities when the world economy recovers. "As soon as overseas markets stage a broad recovery, a wave of QDIIs is inevitable," Hao Kang, who manages the company's first fund under the nation's Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor, or QDII, program, said in a May 31 interview in Beijing. "We expect that to happen in two to three years." The asset management unit of the world's biggest bank by market value began making investments from a second QDII fund last month and plans more such products in anticipation of a revival in appetite among Chinese investors for global equities. Hao's fund, whose net value per unit fell 5.9% as of June 1, is this year's best performer among the nine QDIIs launched before Dec. 31, according to China Galaxy Securities Co. The fund will buy more stocks in emerging markets such as Hong Kong, India and Brazil if prices tumble further, Hao said. He has been acquiring banking shares, especially in Hong Kong- listed Chinese lenders, this quarter. China introduced the QDII system in 2007 to allow fund managers, banks and securities firms to pool money from domestic investors to trade in foreign securities. Investors' enthusiasm for the financial product became muted as global equities slumped after the meltdown in the US subprime-mortgage market. While the nation's first four QDII funds raised more than $4 billion each, six of seven such funds started since May 2008 collected less than $90 million apiece, according to consulting firm Z-Ben. ICBC Credit Suisse's second QDII fund raised almost 600 million RMB ($87.8 million), Hao said, compared with the 3.16 billion RMB in the fund manager's Global China Opportunity Equity Fund at its inception on Feb. 14, 2008. The MSCI World Index, a gauge of equities in 24 developed nations, has dropped 27% since February 2008. This year, China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has plunged 22% amid concerns that the government's crackdown on property speculation and Europe's debt crisis may hamper an economic recovery. The MSCI China Index has slipped 11%, while the MSCI World tumbled 9%. Hao said his fund has added 1.1 million China Construction Bank Corp. shares in the last three months, boosting holdings in the lender to 4.5% of its portfolio. Since April, the fund has also trimmed holdings in companies supplying raw materials such as copper, steel, aluminum and cement, Hao said, without naming the stocks. "Chinese investors still need to go out and tap the growth in emerging markets through a more diversified asset allocation strategy," Chen Chao, ICBC Credit Suisse's chief economist, said Thursday. "If the Chinese RMB's likely appreciation is a concern, other currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars are also strengthening" against the US dollar. Hao's fund invests no more than 50% of its portfolio, valued at 1.9 billion RMB as of March 31, in overseas-listed Chinese stocks and the rest in foreign equities that are poised to benefit from China's economic expansion. ICBC Credit Suisse, set up in 2005, manages nearly 90 billion RMB in 11 mutual funds as of Dec. 31, according to its website. The company is ranked ninth among fund managers in China, according to financial news website Hexun. ********************** China State Shipbuilding Corp.'s orders improved by a "large extent" from a year ago as the global economy and shipping business recovered, a company executive said. The state-owned company has won orders of about 40 million deadweight tons through the year 2012, compared with a "few million tons" for 2009, Cao Yousheng, head of the company's policy research office, said in an interview in Shanghai Friday. Chinese shipyards almost doubled production in the first four months of the year as the end of the credit crunch and rebounding global trade revived demand for new ships. The government is developing the local shipbuilding industry in a bid to surpass South Korea as the world's largest maker of ships by 2015. "Ship prices have rebounded to 2004 levels, but are unlikely to reach those of 2008," when the Chinese shipbuilding industry peaked, Cao said. A revival in shipbuilding has helped bolster steel prices, he said. Dry bulk ships account for almost 80% of all the group's new orders because of strong demand for iron ore and coal in China, he said. The company doesn't expect any cancellations this year, after 5% of 2009 orders were canceled, he said. Tankers may be "most promising" in the next few years with an increase in oil projects, said Wang Yanguo, deputy head of science and technology at the Beijing-based company. China State Shipbuilding is in talks to sell two liquefied natural gas carriers for more than $200 million each, Wang said. The potential purchasers, BG Group Plc and China National Offshore Oil Corp., will use the ships to serve Australia, he said. BG and China National signed an agreement in March for the supply of 3.6 million metric tons of Australian LNG annually from BG's venture in Queensland for 20 years starting in 2014. BG will supply fuel to China National Offshore using gas extracted from coal seams in Queensland and liquified by BG unit QGC for export by ship. ********************** China's Commerce Ministry on Thursday said it will expand its home-appliance trade-in program until the end of 2011. The ministry also made the scheme available in 19 new regions, apart from the existing nine regions. Starting from June this year to the end of 2011, consumers will get a subsidy worth 10% of the price of five kinds of new appliances, televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, air-conditioners and computers, Xinhua News Agency reported. According to the finance ministry, sales of new home appliances in the key areas amounted to CNY 54 billion by the end of May 2010. The programme was launched in June last year to boost domestic consumer spending. Consumers were offered 10% discount in exchange of their old home appliances. As of May 31, a total of 14 million households benefited by the programme. Chinese private sector activity continued to lose its growth momentum in May, a survey report from Markit Economics showed on Thursday. The HSBC purchasing managers index (PMI) for services dropped to 56.4 in May from 58.5 in the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. Services new orders rose in May, although at the slowest pace in 12 months. Outstanding business at Chinese service providers slipped in May, after a slight increase in the previous month. Services employment continued to rise in May, with the rate of job creation showing the second-fastest level since September 2007. Further, average input prices climbed for the seventh consecutive month in May, although the rate of inflation was the slowest since November 2009. Similarly, output price inflation eased sharply. "The slowdown in the services and manufacturing PMIs implies that the ongoing tightening measures are starting to take effect," Hongbin Qu, chief economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said. "But rising inflation means that quantitative tightening will continue, though the first rate hike may get delayed into 3Q." |
| Summary
The coming week looks like ..... | 
The week-ahead has relatively little economic data in the US - and this might give the markets a little respite, if not 'direction'.
The release of the retail sales data will be the big news, adding direction to perceptions of consumer spending in the second quarter. There are three major central bank announcements on the schedule, and their respective decisions will be read in the context of the current renewed fragility in financial markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia's announcement indicated their current tightening cycle was done, and the Bank of Canada's modest 25 basis point increase in the overnight rate to 0.50% seems likely to be the only rise in the near-term. In the coming week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Band of England and the European Central Bank will make their respective monetary policy announcements. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has previously signaled its intent to start raising the official base rate from its current level of 2.50%. On the other hand, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave the 0.50% official bank rate untouched and the ECB should leave the refi operations rate at 1.00%. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, June 22-23, and should be preceded by the usual press blackout period lasting about a week. This means that the June 7 week is the last period in which Fed policymakers may make fresh comments regarding monetary and credit policy. The next meeting will also include an update to the Fed's economic forecast, so remarks regarding conditions in the economy will also have extra relevance to markets. The San Francisco Federal Reserve hosts a two-day Asian Banking and Finance Conference on "Global Recovery: Asia and the New Financial Landscape" Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday, the Richmond Fed will hold a one-day conference in Richmond, VA on "From Recession to Recovery: A Forum on Employment Trends and Workforce Development Strategies in Virginia." A number of Fed District Bank Presidents will speak over the course of the week, mostly on the topic of the US economy, but none of the appearances seem likely to excite a lot of market interest. The pace of economic data releases over the course of the week is fairly slow. The highlights are probably going to be the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and the Commerce Department's data on retail and food sales Friday morning. The Beige Book will provide anecdotal evidence about economic conditions around the 12 District Banks during approximately the six weeks from the end of April through the start of June. Signs of expansion should continue to strengthen, although we anticipate it will continue to be mixed across Districts. The Minneapolis District is expected to compile the report. The May numbers for retail and food sales have the potential to look quite robust. The stronger than expected sales of domestic motor vehicles will give the overall number a push higher. Gasoline prices fell a bit. Weekly measures of retail activity over the course of May point to some modest gains in other areas, and perhaps especially in warm weather goods and home improvement materials. The earliest looks at monthly indexes of consumer confidence are next week. The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June is set for release mid-Friday morning. Consumers' attitudes are showing signs of improvement as the spring progresses, and June will probably see some further gains. There may be a hint on the direction of the Michigan survey when the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for June is released at mid-morning Tuesday. The two indexes tend to track fairly well. The international trade balance for April Thursday morning may reflect a further widening in the trade gap that is typical of economic recovery, and will also give a first glimpse of what the net exports component of second quarter GDP may look like. Other economic data during the week is of little immediate market interest. The April levels of consumer credit outstanding released Monday afternoon should reflect some stronger auto sales. Tuesday morning sees the BLS data on Job Openings and Labor Turnover that has been on a trend of slightly higher openings and stable hirings. Levels of initial jobless claims for the week ended June 5 reported Thursday morning is most likely to remain on trend near the mid-400,000 level. The report on wholesale trade mid-Wednesday morning will form part of the data to be included in the business inventories release at mid-Friday morning, the new component of which will be for retail trade. Factory inventories were already reported up 0.5%. Increases at wholesalers and retailers would mark further help to the economy from inventory rebuilding, and possibly some more fundamental recovery in consumer demand. The Treasury's monthly statement released Thursday afternoon should mark a 19th consecutive month of deficits for the US government. The US Treasury will auction new 3-year notes on Tuesday, reopened 10-year notes on Wednesday, and reopened 30-year bonds on Thursday. All will settle on June 15. The Euro is likely to maintain its bearish bias against the US Dollar and any recovery in the single currency is expected to be short-lived going into a week in which European sovereign debt issues remain a key focus. Traders on Friday took out options barriers at the $1.20 level in the Euro that had kept it supported for most of the week. The stress in Europe is now well beyond Greece and the periphery, including Hungary, which is on the hot seat today. Core spreads - Netherlands, France and Belgium - for example are all widening. Heading into next week, the Euro's price action will depend very much on whether we hear more negative rhetoric or some more bad news out of the Euro zone. One such key event which could have an impact on the Euro is the European Union finance ministers' meeting on Monday. Sources on Friday said European Union monetary officials at the meeting are likely to endorse a deal on the emergency borrowing from the region's members in trouble. They will also assess the austerity programs of Portugal and Spain. Euro zone fears aside, as I mentioned, that trio of central bank decisions next week - the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand - will be worth watching, if not for the action, then at least for the tone. But the focus will be on the ECB, with expectations high that the central bank may be compelled to resume longer-dated liquidity operations. The ECB, analysts say, could also go a step further and adopt quantitative easing. Analysts say the most extreme scenario is a rate cut to 50 basis points to 0.5& despite the gradual rise in inflation, currently at 1.6& year-on-year compared to the 2& target. Should that happen, the Euro could further sink to even lower levels. I'll leave you all with a thought this sunny Saturday morning. If you are the Captain of a ship, we'll call it the SS Europe. And the ship has a few leaks that could potentially get bigger under pressure and those leaks spread further around the ship. The ship is listing to one side and the engineers are reporting more leaks springing up every hour. The question is this; would you as Captain of the SS Europe, given the choice, choose to take on a new crew-member that not only had very little experience at sea, but also could not swim? I ask this question, for the following reason. European governments will next week endorse Estonia's bid to become the 17th country using the Euro, setting aside the European Central Bank's warning that the Baltic state may struggle to keep inflation under control, a draft document shows. The admission of Estonia, a one-time Soviet satellite that joined the European Union in 2004, shows that the EU won't let the debt crisis in western Europe prevent it from widening the currency bloc to the east. Political backing for Estonia comes in the face of the ECB's concerns that Estonia's inflation rate, at 2.5& in April, may jump in years ahead as economic growth outstrips the Euro-region average. The Euro region's 16 governments have the formal power over Euro entry, and have never rejected a country backed by the European Commission, the EU's Brussels-based executive body. EU treaties relegate the ECB to an advisory role on Euro-entry matters. Next week's endorsement will be reviewed by government leaders at a June 17 summit, with a formal decision by finance ministers on July 13. Estonia's conquest of price pressures reflects "temporary factors" and "it may be difficult to prevent macroeconomic imbalances, including high rates of inflation, from building up again," the ECB said in its non-binding opinion on May 12. Inflation in Estonia jumped as high as 10.6& in 2008, the fourth-highest in the 27-nation EU that year. In the 12 months to March, the test period for Euro entry, the rate was minus 0.7&, compared with a Euro-admission target of 1&. Full-year inflation is likely to be 0.2&, rising to 1.3& in 2010 and 2& in 2011, the commission forecasts. Estonia passes the other four economic tests for Euro users: targets for budget deficits, debt, long-term interest rates and currency stability. With Estonia at risk of "somewhat higher inflation," the ministers judged that "continued vigilance will be important to maintain inflation convergence in Estonia in the medium term," the document said. Estonia will also be urged to maintain "prudent fiscal policies, implement further structural reforms and take all other actions needed to prevent macroeconomic imbalances from building up again," the document said. With economic output of 14 billion Euros ($17 billion), Estonia would rank as the Euro's second-smallest economy, ahead of Malta. Its central bank governor, Andres Lipstok, would take a seat on the ECB's interest-rate setting council in January. Estonia's admission would probably mark the currency union's last expansion for years. Lithuania and Latvia, the next in line, are aiming to join in 2014. Poland, the largest eastern European economy, and the Czech Republic haven't set target dates - thank goodness for that! So; to add more weight to a ship that is already listing, or start repositioning the non-swimmers closer to the lifeboats? That will be the question in Europe this week and the weeks ahead I think! |
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Newsletter Written By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International | |
|
|
|
|