Financial Page International

7 August 2010 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
Firstly, I would like to apologise to all the Belgian readers of my Newsletter for the error that I made in reporting that VB (Vlaams Belang) won the last federal elections on the Flemish side; of course it was the NVA (New Flemish Alliance) and apologies for any political confusion caused as a result of my oversight.
 
On to Pogo Pogo this week and the political party there ....
 
Enough jest or people may think that I have lost focus on the real markets; and what a week it has been.
 
On the surface, markets have shown a pattern of late to dip Mondays because of the US's prior Friday drops, rally Tuesday to Thursday on any news whatsoever that can be construed (loosely termed I add) as positive (such as "there was a rumour going round Wall Street that the RMB would strengthen this weekend and solve the US employment issue) and then have a drop again on Friday because those rumours were proven to be false and jobs data, housing data, data concerning Ben Bernanke's dog, all came in 'worse than expected'.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen, this is turning into a scary global stockmarket position because as I mentioned last week, markets have gotten way ahead of themselves and it can only end in tears .... once again.
 
Oh how sad it is that markets/investors/brokers learned nothing from 2007/2008 and the rout we saw at that time.
 
In my humble opinion, it is just a matter of time before we see a repeat of what happened and that inevitable 'double-dip' come along.
 
But whilst we wait for the bad news, I can focus this week on an asset class that you all know I have been promoting as going to set fresh records and be the proverbial 'phoenix' that rises out of the detritus that is/has been global financial markets - Gold!
 
Gold is currently sat at $1,205, a fresh high and all indicators are that it can only go higher - with my predicted $1,500 (and much scoffed at prediction I must add) before the end of 2011, looking like a distinct possibility now.
 
And guess what; we can thank China once again for assisting with this!
 
China's moves to free up its gold market open the way for foreign players and local banks to tap growing demand for the precious metal, offering citizens a more attractive investment and promising to boost the country's clout over global prices.
 
With the Shanghai Composite Index down 20% this year, and gold prices still up 9% despite a correction from a lifetime high hit in June, more retail investors are buying bullion as they diversify their wealth.
 
A clampdown on rampant property speculation could also drive investors to shift some hot money into gold, which many see as a sign of status and good fortune, as hopes for more Chinese demand pushed gold to a two-week high above $1,200 an ounce this week.
 
What's happening in China right now is that a lot of wealth is being switched out of the property markets into the gold market.  This is an ongoing theme and this theme is likely to put a very high floor of price on the gold market.
 
The property investor is very concerned the government is trying to cool that market. They've made a lot of money in property and investors have long bet that China will eventually overtake India as the world's top consumer, and Beijing's move to allow more domestic banks to export and import bullion underscores the hunger for gold among the country's growing middle class.
 
More foreign companies are likely to become members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and analysts expect Beijing to ease curbs on gold investment products such as exchange traded funds.
 
Although China is the world's largest gold producer, it still requires imports as demand can outstrip domestic output by more than 100 metric tons annually.
 
China's share of global gold demand jumped to 11% in 2009 from 5% in 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened, and consumption is likely to double in the next decade from around 420 tons as income grows, the World Gold Council says.
 
The People's Bank of China said this week it would allow banks to hedge bullion positions in overseas markets, urge banks to lend more to domestic gold companies looking to go abroad, and actively develop more RMB-denominated gold derivatives.
 
China is likely to let second-tier institutions such as Minsheng Banking and China Merchants Bank join forces with four major state banks, including Bank of China, that are already allowed to offer such services - bringing the number to at least eight.
 
China's gold market is going to play an important role in the global gold market. It will become more accessible for both international and domestic players. Investors in China will benefit from greater availability of physical gold and gold-related financial products and so naturally this is very positive for gold.
 
Analysts say China wants more banks to trade with overseas counterparts, reduce their reliance on the Shanghai Gold Exchange for hedging and invite more foreign banking institutions to trade on the Exchange, where trading volumes have risen by more than half in the first half of this year.
 
Five banks, including HSBC and Standard Chartered, are members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
 
Most gold investors trade via the Exchange but banking sources say more clients are chasing products such as gold savings accounts and gold bars while hedging services to miners have gone up - suggesting a shift from equities or property markets.
 
Beijing has repeatedly stressed its determination to curb speculative demand and rein in overly fast price rises in the real-estate market despite a slowdown in economic growth.
 
No matter if it's the stock, property or gold market, Chinese people as we know always flock into pretty much anything when prices are rising.
 
Will China boost reserves after announcing the new measures? The answer may be no because Beijing will focus on bringing more gold into the country to satisfy demand, rather than stirring up global prices through official purchases.
 
China has increased its official gold holdings by more than 400 tons in the past few years to 1,054 tons - the world's sixth largest.
 
The PBoC comments should not be taken as a sign the official sector will buy gold, but rather that current restrictions on gold imports and gold investment products, such as exchange-traded funds, will gradually ease.
 
Indeed, business is booming in downtown Beijing.
 
Ostensibly, it once again comes down to a 'savings' issue here in China.  There is more confidence that gold is something that will be able to hold its value and that is important to the Chinese 'saver/investor'. Parents want to pass gold on to their children because they think it is not only something tangible, but of course safe.
 
So for all those doubters of my 'Gold to $1,500 by the end of 2011' mantra that I have been chanting for the past 18 months; perhaps my prediction doesn't quite look so off-the-wall now!
 
On to the numbers on the boards this week: 
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummaryStocks tumbled, paring a weekly advance for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, after weaker-than- forecast growth in company payrolls suggested a rebound in corporate profits may stall.
 
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and International Business Machines Corp. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower after private- sector payroll growth fell short of estimates. EOG Resources Inc. tumbled 3.1% following earnings that trailed estimates. Equities pared losses as the Federal Housing Administration said it plans to begin accepting applications for a program to help struggling mortgage borrowers.
 
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.4% to 1,121.64 at 4 p.m. in New York, paring its weekly advance to 1.8%. The Dow dropped 21.42 points, or 0.2%, to 10,653.56 after earlier tumbling as much as 160 points. Treasury yields slid, sending the two-year rate below 0.5% for the first time, on lower expectations for economic growth and inflation.
 
US index futures erased gains before the open of exchanges as the government said the number of Americans on company payrolls rose by 71,000 in July after a gain of 31,000 in June that was smaller than previously reported. Economists projected a 90,000 rise in private-sector jobs last month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
 
Overall employment, including government workers, fell by 131,000 as the Census Bureau cut temporary jobs, and the unemployment rate held at 9.5%.
 
JPMorgan Chase, the second-biggest US bank by assets, declined 2% to $40.44. IBM, the world's biggest computer- services company, dropped 0.8% to $130.14.
 
EOG Resources fell 3.1% to $99.26. The oil and natural gas producer reported second-quarter profit excluding some items of 18 cents a share, 31% less than the average of 23 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
 
Harman International Industries Inc. declined 12% to $29.88 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. The maker of audio systems for homes and vehicles posted fourth-quarter profit excluding some items of 30 cents a share, trailing the average analyst estimate by 6.3%.
 
Washington Post Co. fell 7.6% to $377.56, its biggest drop since May 2009. The newspaper publisher said proposed US Department of Education rules could "have a material adverse effect" on its Kaplan unit, which makes up more than 60% of earnings.
 
Activision Blizzard Inc. slid 6.5% to $10.99. The largest video-game publisher said sales this quarter will be $725 million, excluding changes in deferred revenue. Analysts estimated sales of $914.5 million on average. The company forecast adjusted earnings of 8 cents a share, below the 12-cent average estimate.
 
Equities pared losses late in the session as the Federal Housing Administration said it will begin accepting applications Sept. 7 for its program to help borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. The Short Refinance program encourages lenders to forgive 10% or more of the balance of a mortgage so the loans can be refinanced at a lower interest rate. That would remove the troubled loans from the lender's books and allow borrowers to lower their payments.
 
The S&P 500 advanced this week as companies from Humana Inc. to Allergan Inc. reported profit that topped analyst estimates. Earnings beat the average analyst estimate at more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies that have reported second-quarter results so far, helping send the benchmark up as much as 10% from its low for the year on July 2.
 
Kraft Foods Inc. and American International Group Inc. gained Friday after reporting better-than-expected results. Kraft Foods, the maker of Oreo cookies and Maxwell House coffee, rose 2.4% to $30.36. AIG, the insurer rescued by the US in November 2008, gained 2.6% to $40.93. Separately, AIG Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche said the insurer is in talks with regulators to become independent.
 
PerkinElmer Inc. rose the most in the S&P 500, climbing 11% to $22.29. The provider of equipment for genetic screening and drug research boosted its full-year forecast after second-quarter profit beat analysts' estimates.
 
The 443 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported second- quarter results earned an aggregate $21.45 a share excluding some items, the highest total since the second quarter of 2007, when index operating profit peaked at $24.06 a share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and S&P.
 
Sales per share, forecast by S&P to total $235.54 this quarter, have recovered less than 7% from a three-year low of $221.8 a share in the first quarter of 2009, according to data compiled by S&P. The peak, in the second quarter of 2008, was $278.53 a share.
 
The US economy has expanded for four straight quarters after shrinking for five of the previous six as the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry triggered the worst contraction since the Great Depression. Growth slowed to 2.4% in the first quarter from 3.7% at the end of 2009, spurring concern the nation is at risk of entering another recession as government stimulus programs expire.
 
Earlier this week, reports on consumer spending, pending home sales and factory orders in June were all weaker than economists estimated. The Federal Reserve will provide an update on interest rate policy and its assessment of the economy on Aug. 10.
 
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz said the US economic recovery is "anemic" and called for a second round of "better-designed" stimulus.
 
"The recovery is so weak that it is not strong enough to generate new jobs for the new entrants in the Labour force, let alone to find jobs for the 15 million Americans who would like a job and can't get one," Stiglitz told Bloomberg Television in an interview in Sydney Thursday.

European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks climbed this week as earnings from HSBC Holdings Plc to BNP Paribas offset weaker- than-forecast US data that reignited concerns about the strength of the recovery in the world's biggest economy.
 
HSBC, the region's largest bank, BNP Paribas and Lloyds Banking Group Plc all climbed after posting profit that topped analysts' estimates.
 
Aviva Plc jumped 6.8% after the insurer reported higher profit. Yara International ASA led gains in agriculture-related companies after wheat prices surged to the highest level in almost two years.
 
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.3% to 258.71, extending last month's gain of 4.9% as company earnings helped alleviate concern about global growth. About 55% of the gauge's members that have posted results since July 12 have topped estimates for net income.
 
GERMANY
 
German stocks retreated from a two- year high after a bigger-than-estimated decrease in jobs in the US added to evidence the economic recovery is slowing.
 
HeidelbergCement AG led declines on the benchmark DAX Index, falling 3.8%. E.ON AG and RWE AG, Germany's biggest utilities, dropped at least 1% as UBS AG downgraded its rating on the industry. Fertilizer producer K+S AG gained after wheat reached its highest price in almost two years following an export ban by Russia.
 
The DAX fell 1.2% to 6,259.63 at the 5:30 p.m. close of trading in Frankfurt, paring this week's increase to 1.8%. The measure rallied 3.1% in July, its biggest increase since March, as demand at bond auctions in Greece, Spain and Portugal eased concern that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis will derail the economic recovery. The broader HDAX Index slid 1.1% Friday.
 
Stocks erased earlier gains after the US Labour Department said private payrolls that exclude government agencies rose by 71,000, less than forecast, after a gain of 31,000 in June that was smaller than previously reported. Economists projected a 90,000 rise in private jobs, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Overall employment fell 131,000 and the jobless rate held at 9.5%, the report said.
 
HeidelbergCement, the world's largest maker of aggregates used to produce concrete and asphalt, tumbled 3.8% to 38.09 Euros. The stock was cut to "hold" from "buy" at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.
 
E.ON slid 2% to 23.06 Euros and RWE slipped 1% to 55.26 Euros. UBS analysts Nick Nelson and Karen Olney cut their rating on utility shares to "neutral" from "overweight," saying profit growth will be slower than any other industry in 2011 as companies such face new taxes on nuclear fuel and hydropower.
 
K+S, Europe's biggest producer of potash, climbed 1.4% to 44.11 Euros after wheat prices surged. Russia, the world's third-biggest grower of wheat, banned exports of the grain from Aug. 15 to Dec. 31, as the country's worst drought in half a century cut yields.
 
Lanxess rallied 3.6% to 40.14 Euros. Germany's largest publicly traded specialty chemicals maker raised its 2010 forecast for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to 800 million Euros ($1.06 billion) from a previous prediction of 650 million Euros to 700 million Euros.
 
Kinghero, the China-focused fashion company which traded in Frankfurt for the first time Friday, rose 0.7% to 15.10 Euros. The Munich-based company said Thursday it had placed 15 million shares at 15 Euros each.
 
Germany's seasonally adjusted services business activity index rose to 56.5 in July from 54.8 in June, a final report from Markit Economics showed Wednesday.
 
The final reading was lower than the flash figure of 57.3 for July. Economists were expecting the reading to remain unchanged. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
 
The July reading pointed to a rise in service sector output for the twelfth consecutive month. The pace of growth picked up to the sharpest since August 2007, and the latest reading highlighted an acceleration of activity growth for the first time in three months, Markit said. The final Composite Output Index, that covers both manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indexes, or PMIs, was at 59 in July, up from 56.7 in June. The combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors increased at the fastest pace since April.
 
The latest PMI data for Germany's manufacturing sector had shown that the index rose to a seasonally adjusted 61.2 in July, the highest reading in three months, from 58.4 in the previous month.
 
Meanwhile, official figures showed that German economy expanded 0.2% in the first quarter as well as in the fourth quarter of 2009 on a sequential basis. In the third quarter of 2009, the gross domestic product grew 0.7%. 
 
FRANCE
 
France's CAC 40 Index fell 48.14, or 1.28%, to 3716.05 at the close in Paris. The SBF 120 Index also dropped 1.22%.
 
Archos fell 12.4% to 3.62 Euros, the biggest drop since December. The maker of portable music and video players said its first-half loss narrowed to 3.2 million Euros ($4.2 million) from 5.1 million Euros a year earlier.
 
Catering International & Services gained 2% to 60.70 Euros. The catering-services group said second- quarter revenue rose 16% to 47.8 million Euros.
 
Dexia fell 4.7% to 3.78 Euros. The Paris- and Brussels-based bank said second-quarter profit declined 12%, hurt by a loss at its Slovak operations.
 
ESR decreased 10% to 99 cents, the biggest drop in more than a year. The engineering company said first- half revenue fell to 31.5 million Euros from 36.1 million Euros a year earlier.
 
Natixis rose 2.8% to 4.408 Euros. The investment-banking unit of France's second-biggest bank by branches posted second-quarter net income of 522 million Euros, from a year-earlier loss of 819 million Euros.
 
Synergie gained 3.2% to 20.09 Euros. The temporary-employment agency said first-half revenue rose to 548.4 million Euros from 429.6 million Euros a year earlier.
 
Veolia Environnement declined 2.4% to 21.185 Euros. The world's biggest water utility said a recovery in waste treatment is "limited."
 
French service sector activity expanded at a faster pace in July, a final report by Markit Economics showed on Monday.
 
The purchasing managers index, or PMI, for services increased to a two-month high of 61.1 in July from 60.8 in the previous month. The current sequence of rising service sector output now extends to eleven months. The flash reading for July was 61.3. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction.
 
The Composite Output Index reached 59.7 in July, up from 59.6 in the previous month. The latest reading was revised from 59.9 reported initially. Manufacturing output rose at the slowest pace for eleven months in July.
 
Growth in the service sector was mainly influenced by rising levels of incoming new business as economic conditions continued to improve with panellists receiving work from both new and existing clients, Markit said. However, manufacturers showed a declining trend in employment in July, with the pace of job shedding accelerating to the sharpest since September 2009. Input price inflation increased in July albeit at the slowest rate since February.
 
"Strong growth of services activity continued to drive the French economic recovery in July," Jack Kennedy, an economist at Markit said. "An improving Labour market is likely to bolster consumer spending, offering encouragement regarding the sustainability of the upturn in the second half of the year." 
 
BELGIUM
 
The Bel 20 in Brussels ended the week at 2,549.82, a dip of 1.40% on the day.
 
Belgian financial services group KBC (KBC.BR) beat expectations in the second quarter due to healthy interest income and sharply lower provisions for bad debts and despite reduced earnings from its dealing rooms. KBC, which has received 7 billion Euros in state aid to help it through the global financial crisis, said on Thursday it expected loan losses to decline in 2010 from 2009, with healthy revenue although costs could increase.
 
Many of Europe's top banks have beat earnings forecast this week as bad debts have shrunk more than expected, outweighing a slowdown in investment banking, which was hit by sovereign debt fears.
 
KBC's net profit before one-offs rose 35% year-on-year to 554 million Euros ($732.9 million) in the second quarter, versus an expected 459 million Euros.
 
However, around 400 million Euros of exceptionals, a number linked to its wind-down programme and some related to sovereign credit spreads, left the absolute net profit at 149 million Euros, a 51% drop, albeit still higher than expected.
 
In return for the state aid it received, KBC has pledged to downscale its capital market activities and businesses outside its core of Belgium and emerging Europe, where it is the fifth largest by assets.
 
UK drug maker Shire Tuesday said it agreed to acquire Belgium's Movetis N.V. (MOVE.BT) for Eur428 million in cash, in a deal that adds to its stable of medicines for gastrointestinal conditions.
 
Shire said the deal will boost earnings after 2012 and will add revenue immediately from sales of constipation treatment Resolor, which won the backing of the UK's National Institute for Health and Clinical Evidence earlier this week.
 
Movetis, which was spun out of Johnson & Johnson, raised Eur100 million in an initial public offering late last year to provide funds to market Resolor and develop new drugs.
 
Shire said the deal also adds two drugs in early-stage clinical testing to its pipeline and promising preclinical comPounds, Shire said.
 
The UK drug maker agreed to pay Eur19 a share to acquire Turnhout, Belgium-based Movetis, a premium of 74% to its closing price Monday and valuing it at Eur428 million. Movetis had Eur100 million in cash at March 31.
 
Shire said it will fund the deal with the cash it has on its balance sheet.
 
Shire added shareholders with 38.9% of Movetis's share capital agreed to back the deal.
 
58.5% of the money spent to employ a typical Belgian worker goes to paying various taxes, according to a pan-European study of employment taxes, making August 3rd that employee's "tax freedom day"  - the calendar date on which one has finished paying tax obligations and begins to keep his or her earnings.
 
The study, published by L'Anglophone in May, analysed income tax, social security and VAT rates for salaried employees earning an average wage in each of the EU member states. From average wage data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat, income and social security tax obligations were calculated by Ernst & Young.
 
The average gross salary of a Belgian employee in the industry and services sector in 2006, according to Eurostat, was 37,674€. In addition to this salary, an employer Friday would pay 11,501€ in social security contributions, thus making the total cost of employment (or "real" gross) 49,175€. The employee's net pay would be 21,903€, or 44.54% of the total employment cost; taxes and social security contributions thus comprise 55.46% of real gross income.
 
If the employee then spends 35% of his take-home pay on rent (around 550 Euros per month), and half of what remains on items not subject to VAT (groceries, for example), he pays an additional 1,495€ in VAT at the cash register each year. In this scenario, his total tax burden rises to 28,767€ or 58.5% of his "real" gross salary.
 
For the sake of simplicity in comparing tax burdens in the 27 EU countries, the study used figures for an unmarried "Average Joe" with no children who rents his home (thus neither paying property taxes nor benefitting from a mortgage interest deduction).
 
Additional taxes such as those on petrol and cigarettes were not taken into account, though these levies can be costly; smoking 20 cigarettes a day in Belgium adds 1241€ to one's annual tax bill - or 7 more days at work for the public coffers.
 
Among the EU-27, only in Hungary - where the tax freedom day is August 6th - are the typical worker's wages taxed at a higher rate. The earliest tax freedom days calculated by the study were in Cyprus (March 13th), Malta (April 9th), Ireland (April 27th) and the United Kingdom (May 13th).
 
THE NETHERLANDS
 
In Amsterdam the AEX headed into the weekend on 331.19, 1.6% to the red for the session.
 
An indicator of growth in the Dutch manufacturing sector fell slightly in July but remained strong, new figures showed on Monday.
 
The Markit / NEVI purchasing managers' index - an indicator of health at 500 manufacturing companies across the Netherlands - fell to 55.7 from 55.9 in the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion while one below suggests contraction.
 
New order receipts at Dutch manufacturers rose for the 13th month running in July, supported by improving economic conditions. However, the pace of growth eased to its weakest since last December. Output also rose more slowly during the month.
 
Despite a weaker increase in new work, employment at Dutch manufacturers rose at the fastest rate for over three years in July. This was mainly due to improved market demand, according to survey respondents.
 
Both input and output price inflation eased in July, but the former remained substantial. Respondents cited input price inflation to greater fuel and raw material costs.
 
Gemma Wallace, economist at Markit, said: "It is becoming clearer that Dutch manufacturing activity and new order growth peaked in March, and has been generally cooling ever since. As movements in employment tend to lag those of output, it is likely that we will see some slowdown in the pace of job creation during the coming months from the current three-year high."
 
Dutch game maker Playlogic has been declared bankrupt, eight years after its launch, the NRC reports on Wednesday.
 
Playlogic, with operations in Rotterdam and Breda, is the biggest Dutch company to make games for the Xbox 360 and Sony Playstation, the paper says. The company applied for court protection from creditors last week.
 
The bankruptcy follows a disappointing reception for the long-awaited Fairytale Fights game which has not sold as well as expected. Delayed contracts and increasing debts added to the pressure on the company, the paper said.
 
The company's parent, Playlogic Entertainment, was listed on the US Nasdaq exchange. According to an SEC filing last week, the company lost $20m last year and a further $2.2 m in the first quarter of 2010.
 
'2009 was a difficult year for the entire game industry,' founder Rogier Smit told the paper. 'Hardly any game makers made a profit, even the big internationals.'
 
Chemicals and pharmaceuticals company DSM booked turnover from continuing operations of nearly €2.3bn in the second quarter of 2010, up 28% on 2009.
 
Profit before tax and interest was up nearly 300% at €246m, far above the expectations of analysts questioned by financial news agencies.
 
CEO Feike Sijbesma said it had been a 'very strong quarter'.
 
'DSM remains vigilant about the broader macro economic developments. Based on the current positive business environment we expect 2010 to be a strong year for DSM,' the CEO said in a statement.
 
Twelve of the Netherlands 37 professional football clubs are in such poor financial state that they have been put under the supervision of the Dutch football association, RTL news reports.
 
The problems are due not only to the wages bill but the economic crisis, RTL said, quoting a KNVB report which will be published on Wednesday.
 
The KNVB has divided the clubs into three categories: those under formal KNVB supervision, those where the finances need improving and those which are in a healthy financial state. Just four clubs - FC Volendam, Telstar, SC Heerenveen and Go Ahead Eagles - fall into that last category.
 
Two top premier division sides - Rotterdam's FeYenoord and NEC Nijmegen - are in the danger zone, RTL news says.
 
Earlier this year, the KNVB published a set of proposals to improve football financing.
 
Haarlem and Veendam, both first division sides, were declared bankrupt last season. Premier division side Willem II and first division club MVV were bailed out by their local councils.
 
SWITZERLAND
 
Zurich's SMI drew a line under the trading week at 6,321.36, off 0.84% for the Friday session.
 
Switzerland's consumer prices declined in July for a third month, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Tuesday. Consumer prices dipped 0.7% month-on-month, bigger than the 0.4% decrease seen in June and 0.1% fall in May. Economists had expected only 0.5% decline.
 
The decline in July was largely led by a 10.7% drop in clothing and footwear segment. Oil prices were down 5.3%, while the decrease in food and non alcoholic beverages was 0.5%. Housing and energy and transportation charges fell 0.3% each.
 
Annual inflation, at the same time, eased unexpectedly to 0.4% in July from 0.5% in June. Consensus forecast was for 0.7%.
 
Swiss retail sales decreased by a real 0.4% in June from the previous month, reversing a monthly 1.2% rise in May, the Federal Statistical Office reported Monday. Real turnover in the retail trade excluding fuel remained practically unchanged in June compared with the previous month.
 
Year-on-year, retail turnover rose 0.9% in June, sharply smaller than the 3.9% rise seen in May. Total retail, excluding fuel also increased at a slower pace of 1.3% after recording 3.7% growth. Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco grew by a real turnover of 1%. The non-food sector registered positive growth of 1.8%.
 
In nominal terms, overall retail sales dipped 0.8% on a monthly basis and fell 0.7% from the previous year. Excluding fuel, nominal turnover dropped 0.5% in all major groups compared with May.
 
Switzerland's Purchasing Managers' Index rose to an all-time high in July, a joint report by the SVME Association of Purchasing and Materials Management and Credit Suisse showed Monday.
 
The indicator came in at 66.9 in July, up from 65.7 in June. The index remained consistently above the 50-point growth threshold for eleven months. The expected reading was 65. The PMI reading confirmed the assessment that industrial activity will recover this year from its steep drop.
 
The survey found that three of the five sub-components that feed into the PMI calculation advanced in July. Further, all indicators remained in the growth zone. The output index registered the strongest increase of 4.7 points, now at 69.1 points.
 
At the same time, the suppliers' delivery times component climbed a further 2.5 points to reach a new peak of 83.1 points. The rapid recovery is clearly pushing current capacity utilization to the point of supply bottlenecks, the survey showed. The index for backlog of orders dipped to 67.1. Further, the employment subcomponent was down for the month as hiring has evidently slowed. 
 
AUSTRIA
 
The ATX in Vienna rounded out the Friday session and the week at 2,498.10, down 1.66%.
 
OMV managed to raise earnings and turnover in the first half of this year.
 
The Vienna-headquartered oil and gas firm said Wednesday turnover soared by 31% to 11,015 billion Euros compared to the first six months of 2009. Analysts expected the company's turnover to increase by just 25% year on year.
 
The company - one of the largest oil and gas firms in Europe - also announced earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) rose year on year by a whopping 170% to 1.357 million Euros in the first half of 2010.
 
OMV explained higher mineral oil price rates and the regaining strength of the US Dollar compared to the Euro helped it to significantly improve business figures in the first two quarters of this year.
 
"I think it's fair to call our performance solid," company chief Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer said.
 
OMV currently has around 32,500 employees of which 26,700 work for its Romanian subsidiary Petrom. This means the company has lowered its staff numbers by around 13% compared to 2009.
 
The firm's deputy general director Gerhard Roiss will succeed Ruttenstorfer as CEO next March. Ruttenstorfer - a former Social Democratic (SPÖ) state secretary - has been heading OMV since 2002 after 10 years as its CFO.
 
Hypo Tirol Bank bosses have claimed they are satisfied despite Moody's decision to lower its estimation of the bank.
 
The New York City-headquartered rating agency announced Tuesday that it had changed Hypo Tirol Bank's soundness ranking from Aa1 to A2.
 
CEO Wilfried Stauder stressed in a first reaction Friday he was "satisfied" considering the difficult economic development.
 
Moody's explained its decision was based on the Innsbruck-based institute's "weak capitalisation".
 
The rating agency announcement comes weeks after Austria's biggest banks passed the European Union's (EU) "stress test".
 
Raiffeisenzentralbank (RZB), Erste Bank and UniCredit subsidiary Bank Austria (BA) did well in the check.
 
Seven of the 91 examined bank houses failed the test in which experts tried to find out whether they would manage to survive a dramatic economic downturn.
 
Anti-corruption officials raided the offices of an Upper Austrian industrial company this week.
 
Police said Kremsmünster-based foam producer Eurofoam was suspected of illegal price-fixing activities with rivals across Europe in a possible breach of European competition rules.
 
The firm, which is part of the Upper Austrian Greiner Group, pledged to cooperate with investigators.
 
Eurofoam runs 39 facilities with 2,400 employees in 16 European countries. 
 
SWEDEN
 
The OMX in Stockholm completed a hectic trading week on 1,065.22, shedding 0.85% in the process.
 
Swedish manufacturing activity expanded robustly in July, led by strong growth in new orders and production, a survey by Swedbank and SILF showed Monday.
 
The headline seasonally adjusted purchasing managers index, or PMI, rose to 64.2 in July from 62.4 in June. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. The July reading was slightly above the seven-month average of 63.
 
Meanwhile, economists were looking for a reading of 63.5. An increase in new orders and production contributed positively to the overall rise in activity. The index of new orders rose to 67.3 in July from 61.1 in the previous month. Order intake grew both for the domestic and export markets. The indicator for stock orders advanced to 63.4 from 60.9.
 
The production index rose to 72.2, the highest reading on record, from 66.8 in the previous month. The indicator for employment in the sector slipped to 56.3 in July from 60.3 in June, still suggesting a strong improvement. Supplier's delivery times, which measures demand pressure in the industry, also rose at a slower pace than June. The index reading was 66.4, down from 69.2 in June.
 
Meanwhile, the survey found that most of the Swedish manufacturing firms are planning to increase their production in the coming six months, suggesting a fairly good economic outlook. However, the corresponding index recorded a reading of 72 in July, down from 73.1 in June.
 
A larger number of manufacturers signaled a rise in crude and intermediate goods prices in the coming months. However, they said input costs had stabilized in the last three months. The indicator for price changes recorded a modest drop to 70 in July from 71.1 in June. The gauge measuring the stocks of purchased materials rose to 51.4 from 50.4 in the previous month.
 
A social insurance fraud ring in southern Sweden is thought to have stolen about 75 million kronor ($10.5 million) from Sweden's social security system by faking serious illnesses. In many cases, the frauds involved entire families.
 
The claims come after a 32-year-old man who employed an assistant to help him cope with cerebral palsy, was shown to be completely fit.
 
The fraud centre around a company in Halmstad which provided personal assistants to people with disabilities. Police say they suspect that twelve people supposedly being cared for by assistants supplied by the company were in fact using it as a front to siphon off money from the state.
 
"They've had the same modus operandi in each case. Parents, relatives or friends have been employed. They've declared working hours and taken out money," said Karl-Arne Ockell at Halland police.
 
The company was responsible for processing wages and receipts, providing significant incomes to a large number of people for every supposed patient.
 
A family falsely claiming to have three disabled children was paid 500,000 kronor per month. In another case a couple were paid 220,000 per month each to care for a man with cerebral palsy, despite the fact that one of the supposed carers was simultaneously working in a pizzeria.
 
All those involved in the fraud were foreign citizens. The 41-year-old owner of the company had recruited willing accomplices with medical histories that were hard to trace. This made it easier for him to fool the Swedish Social Insurance Agency (Försäkringskassan).
 
"If you were born in Sweden and have lived here your whole life, then you know it's not true if you suddenly say in your twenties that you have cerebral palsy," said Ockell.
 
The 41-year-old, who lives in Malmö, was recently jailed for two-and-a-half years for aggravated fraud and aggravated false welfare fraud.
 
Police calculate that his company had an annual turnover of between 15 and 18 million kronor for the past five years, meaning he defrauded the state of a total of around 75 million kronor.
 
Many European countries are facing austerity measures in the wake of the financial crisis. Now it's time for the EU itself to get serious about tackling waste, writes Anna Kinberg Batra, chair of the Swedish Parliament's Committee on EU Affairs.
 
On July 23rd, the European Union's so-called stress test of banks was published. The tests assess the ability of the EU's payment systems to withstand shocks. But if the EU is to emerge stronger from the economic crisis, it will require more than improved regulation of our payment systems: the EU and its member states will have to pursue responsible economic policies. Unfortunately, the political will to do this currently appears to be lacking.
 
Earlier this summer, only three EU countries had budget deficits and national debts within the allowed limits. Several countries are finding it hard to turn deficits and crisis situations into stable public finances. Sweden is one of the few countries that will this year meet the European Union's requirements for stable public finances. This is good news, as it means that we can now talk about possible improvements to public services or tax cuts instead of presenting austerity measures. That we can do this is thanks to the fact that the Alliance government has pursued responsible economic policies, instead of buying car factories and putting money into the banks.
 
Work is now underway on next year's EU budget, and the promised review of the union's long-term budget will hopefully soon become reality. Sweden has run a credible campaign for better discipline, with support on both sides of the political divide. But it seems that many governments believe that subsidies and protectionism at the EU level can continue, even while member states are taking drastic measures at home. This would be dangerous, not only for the economy, but also for the credibility of the EU. In recent years we have discussed toughening the rules and imposing sanctions on countries that don't follow the budget rules. All this is worthwhile and important, but it also means that the EU's own budget can't escape the pressure to change - and not just within agriculture or regional policy, but also within administration.
 
There are problems in the EU with money that doesn't reach its intended recipients and with huge administrative costs - the travelling circus of the European Parliament, for example. This is estimated to cost over €200 million per year. But there are further examples of costs that need to be examined: two advisory bodies, the Committee of the Regions and the European Economic and Social Committee, are expected next year to cost €90 and €140 million respectively, despite the fact that they do not have the power to legislate and despite the fact that the matters they deal with are also dealt with by other institutions, including national parliaments.
 
If all the member states had Sweden's budget deficit and our attitude to the subsidy systems, the EU's finances would be well-managed and the budget could be reduced, despite more members and more duties. The whole of the European Union needs to think carefully about how we can start to cut our coat according to our cloth in a tougher environment. Despite the fact that the world has gone through the biggest financial crisis since the thirties, with public finance crises as a result, stable finances in Europe are a long way off. Unreformed subsidies are not the way to stability in any country, and are no better at the European level. This is why the Swedish government has criticized the Commission's budget proposal.
 
Negotiations with the European Parliament and other member states will continue after the Swedish elections in September. A responsible government, which takes responsibility for public finances and plays an active part in the EU, is needed now more than ever. We in the Moderate Party will continue to pursue responsible economic policies, both at home and in the EU. Discipline in the EU's own finances must be a part of this.
 
DENMARK
 
Copenhagen's OMX closed out the Friday trading session on 419.48, a drop on the day of 1.26%.
 
A panel of independent lawyers determined that there was no gross mismanagement on the part of Fionia Bank's executives
 
Top executives at bankrupt Fionia Bank will not face charges of wrongdoing related to their involvement in the bank's collapse, reports FYens Stiftstidende newspaper. A preliminary investigation determined the crash was due to 'not unusual' factors related to the financial crisis.
 
After a devaluation of 2.5 billion kroner in the first half of 2009, a legal panel investigated the Odense-based bank's operations. However, the panel found the heavy losses were due to 'weak credit organisation and poor credit management' of its loans that totalled 17 billion kroner.
 
In November, Nordea Bank was able to purchase part of the bank from the state's Financial Stability Company. The remainder of the bank's operations were reorganised and are now known under the Nova Bank Fyn name.
 
A new report by consultancy firm Copenhagen Economics has estimated that Denmark has missed out on earnings of 10 billion kroner, and 16,000 potential jobs in tourism, since 2000 because it has failed to keep up with its EU neighbours.
 
While tourist numbers here have dipped by more than a fifth since 2000, neighbouring countries such as Germany and Sweden have seen the number of holidaymakers visiting their countries rise by 33 and 26% respectively over the same period.
 
According to the report, which was commissioned by a number of unnamed companies in the industry, Denmark has lost more tourists than any other EU country over the last decade. Relative increases in prices and exchange rates explain some of the loss, but unfavourable taxation and a lack of marketing is also part of the explanation, state the authors.
 
'There is no doubt that things are going in the wrong direction,' Lars Liebst, the general manager of Tivoli amusement park, told national broadcaster DR. 'The report documents the huge economic consequences that occur when we as a nation do not take tourism seriously enough.'
 
If Denmark follows trends in other EU countries it could by 2015 increase the number of overnight stays by 17% and add 9,300 tourist industry jobs, according to the report.
 
However, the authors say that this would require greater political will, better conditions for the industry, and more effective marketing of the country abroad.
 
Danish retail sales dropped in June from the previous month, a report by the Statistics Denmark showed on Monday.
 
Retail sales dropped a seasonally adjusted 1.4% month-on-month in June, compared to a 4.2% rise in the previous month, which was revised from 3.7% growth reported initially. Retail sales for food and other groceries rose to 1.2% from 1.1% in May, while sales growth for clothing etc.. eased to 0.7% from 3.8%. Retail sales for other consumer goods fell 4.2% in June, compared to a 7.2% growth in the previous month.
 
Year-on-year, retail sales rose 0.2% in June, slower than a 0.3% growth in the previous month. Food and other groceries rose 0.1%, after falling 3.1% in May. Sales for clothing etc.. increased to 2.3% from 2.4% fall in May, while sales for other consumer goods fell 0.2% after a 4.5% rise in May. 
 
FINLAND
 
In Helsinki the OMX finished the week at 6,793.12, down 0.76%.
 
Finnish office furniture maker Martela said Friday its net loss widened to Eur1.5m in the first half of 2010 from Eur784,000 a year earlier.
 
Revenue rose by 6.6% year-on-year to Eur48.3m, while operating loss doubled to Eur1.6m from Eur800,000.
 
In the first six months of 2010, cash flow from operations was negative and amounted to Eur2.2m, compared to a positive cash flow of Eur7.1m in January-June 2009.
 
In the second quarter of 2010, Martela's net loss shrank to Eur527,000 from Eur563,000 and revenue grew by 21.3% year-on-year to Eur25.7m.
 
In June 2010, the furniture maker agreed to acquire the used furniture business of office furniture recycling and sales company Pa-Ri Materia Oy. The business operates under the name Martela Poistomyynti in Helsinki and Tampere.
 
The company expects that low demand will have an effect on its revenue and operating result in 2010.
 
Finnish new motor vehicle registrations increased in July from the previous year.
 
The new motor vehicle registrations increased 0.7% on an annual basis in July, a report by the Statistics Finland showed on Thursday. The number of new motor vehicles totaled 14,906 in July, of which 8,157 were automobiles. In June, the new motor vehicle registrations climbed 25.8%.
 
In July, the number of new passenger cars registration rose 6.4% over a year earlier, smaller than 54.6% in the previous month. The number of new passenger cars registered was 7,307. The share of new diesel-driven passenger cars was 41.8%, slightly higher than 41.2% in the preceding month.
 
In the January to July period, new motor vehicle registrations increased 8.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The total number of new motor vehicle registered was 125,699 during the period. The number of passenger cars first registered was 69,752, which was 18.3% higher than a year before. The most common passenger car makes first registered were Volkswagen, Toyota and Skoda.
 
Finnish leisure trips or cruises with overnight stays to neighboring countries totaled 254,000 in June, which was 27% higher than a year ago, a report by the Statistics Finland showed on Tuesday. At the same time, domestic trips with paid accommodation rose 1% to 445,000.
 
The large number of Finnish residents made a trip abroad to Estonia or Sweden, the statistical office said. Finnish residents made 469,000 overnight leisure trips abroad. In all, 357,000 of them included one or more overnights in the country of destination, 24% in Estonia and 17% in Sweden.
 
The latest data are based on Statistics Finland's Finnish Travel Survey for which 1,249 persons aged 15 to 74 permanently resident in the nation were interviewed in July, the statistical office said.
 
Recently imposed restrictions on the export of Finnish dairy products to Russia are to be lifted at the end of the week.
 
Following on-site inspections of 23 Finnish meat and dairy companies in May, the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance in Russia imposed temporary export restrictions on 14 plants. These came into force on 23 July.
 
Now the Russian authorities have agreed to lift the restrictions on 6 August following discussions with the Finnish Food Safety Authority (Evira).
 
The two sides agreed that the collection of milk from Finnish farms will continue as before while certain Labouratory tests will be adjusted to meet the requirements of Russian legislation. 
 
NORWAY
 
Oslo's OBX pulled the curtains on the trading session Friday at 343.11, practically flat with a minor drop of just 0.01%.
 
Norwegian forest products company Norske Skogindustrier said Friday its net loss widened to NOK874m in the second quarter of 2010 from NOK538m in the corresponding period a year earlier.
 
The result was impacted by the sale of excess electricity and negative currency effects within financial items, the company said.
 
Gross operating profit slumped to NOK275m from NOK568m, mainly due to a sharp fall in prices in Europe from the beginning of 2010, higher prices for recovered paper and market pulp, and a stronger Norwegian crown.
 
Both production and sales volumes are higher in 2010, despite the closure and sale of units in 2009, Norske Skog stated, adding that this means that capacity utilisation has increased considerably to 89% in April-June 2010 from 75% in the second quarter of 2009.
 
Norske Skog's operating revenue fell to NOK4.577bn in April-June 2010 from NO 5.16bn a year earlier.
 
Diluted loss per share stood at NOK4.6 versus NOK1.9.
 
In the first half of 2010, Norske Skog's net loss also widened to NOK2.027bn from NOK1.649bn in the same period of 2009. Operating revenue was NOK9.031bn compared to NOK10.419bn.
 
Norway's M2 money supply increased 2.6% year-on-year in June, faster than the 1.1% growth in the previous month, the statistical office said on Monday. The increase in the M2 growth came from enterprises and households.
 
The total money supply amounted to NOK 1.57 trillion in June, up from NOK 1.52 trillion in the previous month.
 
Meanwhile, the non-financial enterprise money supply increased to minus 1.8% annually in June from minus 3.9% in the previous month. Non-financial enterprise money supply constituted 41% of their gross domestic debt measured by the credit indicator C2, the Statistics Norway said.
 
Other financial enterprise money supply grew 12% in June, faster than 5.2% in the preceding month. Similarly, the twelve-month growth in household money supply rose to 3.9% in June from 3.4% in May. Thus, the growth in household money supply was lower than the growth in household gross domestic debt, which was 6.2% at the end of June.
 
Norwegian manufacturing sector continued to expand in July, largely driven by a strong growth in new orders, a survey by Fokus Bank and the Norwegian Association for Purchasing and Logistics, or NIMA, said Monday.
 
The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index rose to 54.9 in July, the highest reading since February 2008, from a revised 52 in June. Meanwhile, economists were expecting PMI to remain unchanged at 52. The previous estimate had shown a reading of 51.2 for June. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
 
At the same time, the gauge measuring new order growth rose to 58.3 from a revised 53.7 in the previous month. This is the highest reading since the May 2007. Production also continued to grow during the month. The corresponding index rose to 57.5 in July, highest reading since February 2008, from a revised 54.6 in June.
 
Employment in Norwegian manufacturing sector fell slightly in July with the indicator dropping to 46.9 in July from 48.4 in the previous month. The index for supplier's delivery times rose to 57 from 52.4. The indicator for stocks of purchased goods recorded a positive reading of 50.6 in July following 47.4 in June. 
 
SPAIN
 
The IBEX in Madrid drew to a close Friday on 10,651.10, down 1.74%.
 
Spanish unemployment dropped for the fourth consecutive month in July and the decline was the biggest for the month since 1998.
 
The number of unemployed decreased by 73,790 or 1.9% in July from the previous month to 3.91 million, the Labour Ministry reported Tuesday. The decline in unemployed was just 20,794 in July 2009. On a yearly basis, the number rose 10.3%.
 
The number of unemployed is expected to ease back further during August, with the tourism season providing a fillip to short-term service-sector employment, said Raj Badiani, an economist at IHS Global Insight. "Beyond the summer tourism season, the outlook for employment remains very challenging."
 
The tourism sector raised hiring, which led to a strong fall in unemployment in the services sector. Among the major sectors, a 2.6% fall was recorded in industry. Unemployment dropped 2.2% in construction and by 1.9% in services. Male unemployment fell 2.2% in July and female unemployment was down 1.5%. Unemployment among under 25s fell 3.7%.
 
Unemployment could stabilize in the months ahead before peaking up again after summer, said Philippe Sabuco, an economist at BNP Paribas. The jobless rate could average 20.5% in 2011, after 20% in 2010, the economist added.
 
The Euro area jobless rate in June was 10%, the largest since August 1998. Spain has the highest unemployment rate in the Euro area, at 20% in June. According to statistical office INE, the Spanish unemployment rate was 20.09% in the second quarter. The number of unemployed increased by 32,800 during the quarter to total 4.65 million.
 
Spanish import price inflation eased in June from the previous year, but export price inflation climbed, a latest report by the National Institute of Statistics showed on Wednesday.
 
The import price index increased 10.1% year-on-year in June, slower than a 10.2% growth in the previous month. However, import prices increased for the seventh consecutive month. A year earlier, import prices slipped 10.8%.
 
On a monthly basis, import prices rose 0.8% in June, slower than a 1.7% growth in the previous month. Import price index for consumer goods grew 0.9% and for durable consumer gods rose 0.6%. The price index for capital goods rose 0.3% and intermediate goods grew 1.3%. The price index of energy climbed 0.3%.
 
Meanwhile, export price index increased 5.8% on an annual basis in June, faster than a 5.6% growth in the previous month. Export prices climbed for the seventh successive month. Export prices for capital goods rose 0.3% and for intermediate goods surged 9.4%. Export prices for consumer goods rose 2.4%. Month-on-month, export prices growth eased to 0.6% from 1.2% in May.
 
Spanish consumer confidence indicator improved in July as household's economic expectations and current situation increased.
 
The consumer confidence index stood at 73.6 in July, up from 65.9 in the previous month, a report by the state-run Official Credit Institute said on Tuesday. A year earlier, the indicator was 76.1.
 
The current situation index rose to 50.4 in July from 42.7 in the previous month. The indicator was 48.5 a year ago. Similarly, households' faith in the future economic situation also improved with index rising to 96.8 from 89.1 in the previous month.
 
However, the consumer confidence index dropped to 69.7 in the second quarter from 74.2 in the previous quarter. During the period, the consumers' perspective on current situation fell to 44.4 from 45.1 in the first quarter, while the expectations index slipped to 95 from 103.2. 
 
PORTUGAL
 
Lisbon's PSI General concluded the week Friday at 2,636.10, declining 1.78% over the course of the session.
 
Telemar Norte Leste SA, Brazil's biggest fixed-line telephone company, has less to gain from an alliance with Portugal Telecom SGPS SA than its European suitor, trading in the companies' bonds shows.
 
Yields on Telemar's 9.5% bonds due in 2019 fell 23 basis points, or 0.23 percentage point, to 5.88% Thursday from 6.11% on July 27, the day before Portugal Telecom agreed to pay as much as $4.8 billion for a stake in Telemar. The yield on 5% bonds due the same year from Portugal's largest telecommunications company fell 32 to 5.08% Thursday. The gap widened 10 in the week through Thursday, the most since the five-day period ended June 28, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
 
Portugal Telecom will pay a maximum of 8.4 billion reais for about 22% of Telemar, according to a July 28 company filing. As part of the agreement, Rio de Janeiro-based Telemar plans to sell 12 billion reais in stock to existing shareholders and acquire 10% of Portugal Telecom, replacing Madrid- based Telefonica SA as the Portuguese company's biggest investor.
 
Telemar shares tumbled 23% in the two days following the announcement of the deal, the biggest two-day drop in almost four years, on concern issuing more stock will dilute earnings.
 
The transaction offers "limited" benefits to Telemar, according to a report from Barclays Capital on July 30.
 
Portugal's minority Socialist government has struggled on multiple fronts this year as it faced growing fiscal and economic challenges from the spreading Euro zone debt crisis.
 
Prime Minister Jose Socrates has had to break an election promise and raise taxes and now relies on the opposition Social Democrats (PSD) to pass legislation in parliament after a pact with the party to overcome the crisis. The pact has recently become shaky as the PSD has gained sharply in opinion polls.
 
Market contagion has been especially tough on Portugal, hitting the country first because it is seen as another small risky southern European country like Greece, with a high deficit, mounting debt and a loss of competitiveness, and second because of its proximity to troubled bigger neighbour Spain.
 
ITALY
 
Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index dropped for a fourth day, losing 218.50, or 1.03%, to 21,084.47 in Milan.
 
A2A declined 2 cents, or 1.7%, to 1.16 Euros, ending a two-day increase. Morgan Stanley downgraded Italy's biggest municipal utility to "equal weight" from "overweight," as second-quarter results "marked the third consecutive weak quarter."
 
Brembo advanced 18.5 cents, or 3.4%, to 5.72 Euros. Banca IMI SpA upgraded the world's largest manufacturer of disk brakes to "buy" from "hold."
 
Davide Campari-Milano, Italy's biggest distiller, lost 5 cents, or 1.2%, to 4.098 Euros as food & beverage stocks were the worst performers in Europe Friday. Parmalat SpA (PLT IM), Italy's biggest dairy-food company, fell 1.8% to 1.83 Euros.
 
Diasorin jumped 1.9 Euros, or 6.2%, to 31.88 Euros, the biggest gain in five months. The supplier of diagnostic tests released "stronger-than-expected second- quarter results at all levels," Cheuvreux said. Diasorin said it's had no contact with US private equity firm KKR & Co. and controlling shareholders don't plan to sell, denying a report in weekly magazine Il Mondo.
 
Fondiaria-SAI rose for the first day in four, gaining 38 cents, or 4.7%, to 8.52 Euros. Cheuvreux upgraded Italy's second-biggest insurer to "outperform" from "underperform." The brokerage said in a note that "the stock is cheap with an improving operating trend."
 
Geox lost 3.4% to 4.27 Euros, paring Thursday's gain. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its price estimate on the shoemaker to 3.9 Euros from 4.8 Euros and reiterated a "sell" rating.
 
Telecom Italia gained 1.6 cents, or 1.6%, to 1.02 Euros, paring a 4.3% drop Thursday.
 
"Telecom Italia's first-half earnings were slightly better than the market expected," Natixis Securities, which has a "buy" rating, said in a note. "In our view, the consensus believes that the guidance, despite it's being confirmed Thursday, will not be achieved in full."
 
Goldman Sachs Group trimmed its price estimate on the ordinary shares to 1.37 Euros from 1.38 Euros, with a "buy" rating unchanged, and on the savings shares to 1.07 Euros from 1.09 Euros, with a "neutral" recommendation. The savings shares rose 1% to 81.9 cents.
 
Tenaris dropped 52 cents, or 3.5%, to 14.51 Euros, extending losses of 5.1% Thursday. UBS AG downgraded the world's biggest maker of seamless steel tubes for oil and gas extraction to "neutral" from "buy," citing "disappointing guidance."
 
Tenaris was cut to "neutral" also at Natixis Securities, while BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research lowered its price estimate for Tenaris's American Depositary Receipts to $52 from $54 and kept a "buy" rating.
 
Italy's center-right government under Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi survived a no-confidence motion against a junior minister implicated in a corruption scandal on Wednesday, marking a major political victory for the ruling coalition since last week's breakup with a powerful ally.
 
The Lower House of parliament rejected a no-confidence motion in a 299 to 229 vote, with 75 lawmakers abstaining from voting on the measure. The lawmakers who abstained from voting included 33 members from the breakaway bloc led by Chamber Speaker Gianfranco Fini.
 
The decision of the breakaway bloc to abstain from voting virtually decided the fate of the no-confidence measure, which ultimately fell short of the 316 votes needed for an absolute majority in the 630-seat lower house.
 
The no-confidence motion was presented by the opposition lawmakers against against junior justice minister Giacomo Caliendo, who is currently under criminal investigation for corruption. The move came after Caliendo denied any wrongdoing and refused to resign.
 
The vote effectively leaves Berlusconi's government safely in place at least until the parliament re-convenes in September after the holiday break. It was the ruling coalition's first real test after the breakup with the bloc led by Fini
 
Fini had ended his 16-year-long alliance with Berlusconi last week after falling out with the Italian premier over a draft law to limit wiretapping and on issues related to morality and legality in politics, following the drastic increase in number of scandals involving coalition members. He has since set up a group called Future and Freedom for Italy (FLI).
 
Fini wanted Berlusconi to take a harsher stand against politicians implicated in court cases, and insisted that public officials suspected of corruption should resign from their posts. The public rift between the two leaders has caused Berlusconi's popularity to fall to a record low since he came to power in May 2008.
 
Berlusconi and Fini came together in 1994, when their Forza Italia and National Alliance parties became coalition allies. They then jointly founded the People of Freedom (PDL) party, the largest in Italian politics. Italy's current ruling coalition is made up of the PDL and its smaller right-wing ally, the Northern League.
 
Italian service sector activity contracted for the first time since November last year, led by a decline in new work, which was the steepest in eleven months, a survey by Markit Economics said Wednesday.
 
The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/Italian Association of Purchasing Management, or ADACI, business activity index fell marginally to 49.6 in July from 51.5 in June. The expected reading was 51.4. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion while one below 50 suggests contraction. Italian service providers reported a solid decline in new business during July, following seven months of expansion. The pace of contraction was the strongest since August last year. Demand for service sector products had deteriorated markedly since June, Markit said.
 
"Of greater concern going forward will be weakening flows of new business, which declined despite another marked reduction in average tariffs, pointing towards weak domestic demand," Andrew Self, an economist at Markit said. "The fall in activity also contrasts markedly with the trends seen in France and Germany, where preliminary data showed accelerating growth."
 
Nevertheless, majority of the firms maintained a positive outlook for activity growth over the coming year, Markit said. Service providers continued to cut staffing levels for the twenty-second month as part of their cost reduction policies. Even so, the pace of job shedding was the weakest in the current sequence of decline and was only fractional.
 
In response to the decline in new orders, backlogs depleted modestly and for the second successive month. Firms sharply cut their charges during the month, eying new contracts. Nonetheless, prices continued to rise.
 
Input costs rose for the twelfth straight month during July, albeit at a moderated pace, mainly due to higher wages and fuel price inflation. Some of the firms also cited unfavorable exchange rates as the reason for inflation. The service sector data sharply contrasted with the business conditions in the Italian manufacturing sector, which improved at the fastest pace since May 2007 in July along with accelerated output growth and higher employment level.
 
The seasonally adjusted Markit/ADACI purchasing managers index for manufacturing edged up to 54.4 in July from 54.3 in the previous month. The Italian economy expanded 0.4% sequentially in the first quarter, following 0.1% contraction in the fourth quarter. 
 
GREECE
 
In Athens, the Athex Composite ended both the session and the week Friday on 1,713.01, off 1.85%.
 
Greek economic sentiment strengthened for the second straight month in July on the back of improved outlook in services and industry, a survey by the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research, or IOBE, showed Wednesday.
 
The headline economic climate index rose to 66.3 in July from 63.8 in June. The index covers expectations in industry, construction, retail trade and services as well as consumer confidence and is calculated after surveying more than 1,000 firms and 1,500 consumers.
 
Overall business expectations stabilized during the month with the widespread discontent about the course of economic activity remaining strong, the report said. Expectations in industry improved modestly in July as firms expect production to increase in the next twelve months.
 
Business outlook of the service sector also improved slightly, as a negative assessment of the current situation was offset by a less pessimistic view of the short-term demand outlook as well as current demand situations.
 
Meanwhile, there was a considerable deterioration in business climate for the construction and retail trade sectors. Though, there was a small betterment in consumer confidence, the relevant indicator stood close to record low levels posted in the previous two months, the survey pointed out.
 
Households were more pessimistic about their personal financial situation and their saving intentions declined further in July.
 
Business conditions in Greek manufacturing industry remained dull in July, a survey by Markit Economics said Monday. However, there were signs that the rate of deterioration is easing.
 
The headline seasonally adjusted Markit purchasing managers' index climbed to 45.3 in July, the highest reading in six months, from 42.2 in June, pointing to further moderation in the decline in industrial activity.
 
Contractions in output and total new orders slowed sharply, while volumes of outstanding work and input stocks also fell less severely, Markit said. New orders placed with Greek manufacturers continued to fall for the twenty-first month in July due to poor economic conditions and weak demand.
 
Nonetheless, the decline was the mildest since January with a drop in new export orders recording a sharp slowdown. New export orders from abroad fell only slightly on the month, the survey found. The contraction in manufacturing output also slowed during the month, despite remaining considerably strong.
 
"These improvements appear to have been driven principally by a weaker fall in foreign demand," Gemma Wallace, an economist at Markit said. "This suggests that efforts by Greek manufacturers to increase their international competitiveness are starting to take effect, although they have not yet led to a rise in new export business."
 
In July, employment fell further. Job shedding accelerated to a rapid pace that was the most pronounced since March 2009 as employers rationalized workforces due to lower production requirements and to cut costs, Markit said.
 
Input price inflation faced by Greek manufacturers moderated again in July. However, upward pressure on input costs remained marked, due to higher fuel and raw material prices. Purchasing costs have been rising since July 2009.
 
Poor market demand and strong competition prevented the manufacturers from increasing their charges in July. Output prices fell at a robust rate as a result, albeit at a fractionally weaker pace than in June.

The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsLonmin led the FTSE 100 lower on Friday as miners helped drag the index into negative territory for a fourth straight day.
 
The platinum miner dropped 5.1% to £15.57 after the South African government ordered it to immediately stop selling associated minerals such as copper due to a problem with its licence.
 
Excluding the $80m Lonmin earns from the affected metals would cut group earnings by around 17%, analysts said. And, though few thought the ruling would survive Lonmin's plans to appeal, the more lasting impact would be to sentiment, they said.
 
Morgan Stanley said the news was further evidence that South Africa is becoming more hostile to the mining industry.
 
"This presents another set of left-field risks over and above the structural issues of rapidly increasing labour and power costs and a strong Dollar-rand exchange rate for miners in the region," it said.
 
Aquarius Platinum fell 2.5% to 268¾p in sympathy while Anglo American, which has about half its operations in South Africa, lost 1.9% to £25.31.
 
Weaker-than-expected US jobs data sent the FTSE 100 lower after a bright start. The index ended down 0.6% or 33.39 points to 5,332.39. For the week the index was up 1.4%.
 
Inmarsat jumped 4% to 741½p after the satellite operator confirmed with in-line results that it would spend $1.2bn to upgrade its current fleet. Short covering helped spur the rally, dealers said, the shares having sharply underperformed since word of the investment first emerged last month.
 
The recent spike higher in grain prices in the wake of Russia's export ban put pressure on food and drink makers, with SABMiller down 2.4% to £18.64, Associated British Foods off 1.5% to £10.15 and Diageo losing 2.2% to £10.79.
 
Unilever dropped a further 2.4% to £18.64 in the wake of Thursday's results, which came with a caution on rising costs and subdued demand. UBS cut Unilever off its "buy" list in response, arguing: "With the burden now on the corporates to prove the environment is not deteriorating, we believe the [consumer goods] sector will be out of favour."
 
Home Retail Group was down 0.7% to 231p after Redburn Partners cut profit forecasts.
 
G4S drifted 0.5% to 259¾p even after Securitas, its main rival, reported improving organic sales and margins and said public sector spending cuts presented more opportunities than risks. G4S is due to report on August 26.
 
Logica led the mid-cap risers, up 6.1% to 116p, after interim results from the IT oursourcer came without the profit warning many had expected. Management's decision to hike the dividend by 90% also helped support confidence that the slowdown in UK public sector spending will not be as severe as feared.
 
Ashtead, the US-based construction equipment hire group, slid 4.8% to 100p amid vague gossip that it could be vulnerable to a bid approach. Traders were cautious, saying that industry peers such as United Rentals would likely face competition hurdles and financial buyers may be deterred by its £800m debt pile.
 
Connaught plummeted 46.6% to 15½p after its third profit warning in as many months, which raised concerns about whether a rescue rights issue would be feasible. The housing maintenance group said it will post a "material" operating loss for the year to August.
 
A UBS downgrade to "neutral" led GKN down 4% to 154p, with the broker citing a full valuation and increasing pricing pressure from customers.
 
Northumbrian Water, the subject of recurrent bid speculation, lost 1.3% to 331p after RBS moved from "buy" to hold" on valuation grounds.
 
Inhaled drug developer Vectura Group jumped 13.4% to 55p after it signed a non-exclusive licensing deal for its dry powder formulation patents, write Bryce Elder and Matthew Kennard.
 
The milestones and royalties will go some way to relieving Vectura's cash burn and allow it to develop fully its own key pipeline products, is the consensus amongst analysts. 
 
Advanced Power Components, the electronics distributor, rose 14.8% to 13p after its finance director and head of operations both bought shares.
 
Impellam Group, the specialist staffing group that operates under brands including Magnitech and Blue Arrow Catering, rallied by 32.6% to 128p after its interim results matched expectations.
 
Sterling Energy left speculators nursing losses. Shares in the oil explorer reached 136p in early trading. However, the news that its exploration programme in Kurdistan would be delayed by up to 21 days, due to problems with its rig, saw the shares close 3% lower at 121¼p.
 
The clearing of a long-standing stock overhang lifted Sable Mining by 9% to 20¾p.
 
Matrix placed 20m shares at 18p apiece on behalf of several institutions, dealers said.
 
Chemicals-maker Norman Hay dropped 20.9% to 70p after saying it intended to delist. "The directors consider Aim to be a drain on management time and the ongoing costs and regulatory requirements associated with maintaining the company's listing outweigh any other potential benefits," it said.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN
 
Tokyo stocks closed on a mixed note Friday as jitters ahead of a closely watched US payrolls report weighed on the broader market, while solid earnings reports spurred buying among select bellwether issues such as Nikon and Nippon Sheet Glass.
 
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 11.80 points, or 0.1%, to 9642.12 following a 1.7% rise on Thursday. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues rose 4.08 points, or 0.5%, to 861.17, with 26 of 33 subindexes closing in positive territory.
 
Trading volume was relatively low at 1.6 billion shares, as investors stayed sidelined amid growing concerns that a heavy Dollar sell-off may result if the anxiously awaited monthly payrolls report disappoints.
 
Some investors are also pinning hopes on positive signals from either the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan that could lift markets when the pair hold policy-setting meetings early next week.
 
Fast Retailing was the heaviest-weighted drag on the Nikkei as it slid 2.1% to Y13,320. Industrial robot maker Fanuc also closed down 1.2% at Y10,260.
 
Softbank, the exclusive provider of Apple's iPhone in Japan, declined 1.7% to Y2,507 on a Nikkei report that Japan Communications will allow the new iPhone 4 to be used on NTT DoCoMo's rival network.
 
While Japan's earnings reporting season begins to wind down, Nikon gave a positive boost to bearish market sentiment with its stellar first-quarter earnings report, which showed robust sales of digital cameras and recovery in demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Its shares closed up 3.9% at Y1,571.
 
Nippon Sheet Glass also ended up 5.6% at Y227 on its solid first quarter results and upward revision to its first half operating profit forecast.
 
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone, also known as "NTT", advanced 3.2% to Y3,735 on better-than-expected April-June results.
 
Real estate was the best performing sector for the second straight day as optimism over data showing a decline in the Tokyo office vacancy rate continued to fuel buying. Mitsui Fudosan closed up 3.9% at Y1,392 while Sumitomo Realty & Development gained 4.1% to Y1,694.
 
September Nikkei 225 futures closed up 30 points, or 0.3%, at 9650 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.
 
For the week, the Nikkei added 1.1%, but remains down 8.6% year-to-date. 
 
SOUTH KOREA
 
South Korean shares closed flat Friday, erasing initial losses on bargain hunting ahead of key US economic data.
 
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, was down 0.03 points at 1783.83. Foreigners sold a net KRW48.78 billion in stocks, while local retail investors sold KRW122.94 billion. Domestic institutions bought a net KRW159.19 billion.
 
Weak US markets overnight had led to an outflow of foreign capital from the market, but analysts say the strengthening South Korean won as well as expectations of higher interest rates in the country make domestic equity attractive.
 
Various economic data from China next week will be closely watched by investors, though the market's worries about a potential policy tightening by the Chinese authorities have diminished in recent sessions. US July non-farm payroll data to be released later in the day could also affect investor sentiment going forward.
 
Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors succumbed to profit-taking pressures after strong gains in previous sessions. Hyundai was off 2.4% at KRW143,000, while Kia was 2.4% lower at KRW30,850.
 
Tech plays rose on the back of buying from domestic institutions, which took advantage of recent stock price weakness in the sector. Hynix surged 4.3% to KRW22,850, while LG Display was 2.3% higher at KRW37,800. Samsung Electro-Mechanics ended up 1.2% at KRW126,500.
 
Shipbuilders posted strong gains on hopes the industry is on a recovery path. Daewoo Shipbuilding was up 7.1% at KRW21,100, while Samsung Heavy was 6.2% higher at KRW25,750.
 
Pension funds were buyers of a net 85.8 billion won ($73.58 million) worth of stocks.
 
Shares in agricultural chemicals makers rallied after Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed an order banning exports of wheat as well as wheat and rye flour.
 
Shares in Daewoo Engineering & Construction rose 1.5% after the company said it had won a 511.6 billion won ($438.6 million) order to build a power plant from the Libyan government.
 
Financial stocks bounced after recent losses, with Hana Financial Group rising 2.8% and Shinhan Financial Group gaining 1.3%. 
 
HONG KONG
 
Hong Kong shares ended higher Friday led by conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa, which leapt nearly 10%, and property developer Cheung Kong after the two Li Ka-shing-controlled companies reported a strong first-half earnings performance.
 
The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 127.08 points, or 0.6%, to 21,678.80 after trading between 21,456.74 and 21,722.38. Cheung Kong and Hutchison accounted for 64.57 points, or just over 50%, of the session's gains. Over the week, the index rose 3.1%.
 
Market volume totaled HK$62.90 billion, up from HK$60.90 billion Thursday.
 
Analysts said they expect the index to trade between 20,800 and 22,500 next week, adding investors are awaiting US non-farm payrolls data later Friday for trading cues, particularly after a surprise rise in weekly US jobless claims reported Thursday stoked risk aversion.
 
Telecommunications-to-property conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa soared 9.7% to HK$58.20 after it reported a 12% increase in first-half net profit to HK$6.45 billion, beating market expectations of HK$4.51 billion, and said its third-generation mobile-phone business was finally on track to make a positive contribution to its full-year results on an earnings before interest and tax basis.
 
Hutchison's biggest shareholder and Li's property flagship, Cheung Kong Holdings, closed 3.9% higher at HK$100.40 after reporting a 4% rise in first-half net profit to HK$11.92 billion, boosted by higher contributions from property sales and Hutchison Whampoa.
 
In contrast, electrical appliance retailer GOME slumped 12% to HK$2.40 upon resuming trade after being suspended Thursday. Linus Yip at First Shanghai said the company's outlook was more uncertain after Shinning Crown, a firm controlled by GOME founder Huang Guangyu, sent a letter asking GOME to cancel some decisions approved at a May 11 meeting which granted the company a mandate to issue new shares. Shinning Crown also proposed a resolution to remove Chairman Chen Xiao and executive director Sun Yi Ding.
 
Huang is serving a 14-year prison sentence in China on charges of insider trading, illegal business dealings and bribery. The Shinning Crown letter marks the third time Huang has attempted to wrest clout from current management and US private-equity firm Bain Capital.
 
Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained its buy recommendation on GOME with a target of HK$3.00, saying: "We believe it could be a very painful process, but GOME appears to move in the right direction in terms of corporate governance, and the board should continue to act in the best interests of shareholders." 
 
CHINA
 
China's shares ended higher Friday, buoyed by hopes Beijing may ease bank credit later this year to support economic growth, as well as by the banking regulator's clarification on its stance toward its property loan policy.
 
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended up 1.4% at 2658.39, after falling as low as 2598.91 intraday. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.9% to 1107.44. The Shanghai index was up 0.8% on the week.
 
Analysts said the Shanghai index will likely continue to hover around the psychologically important 2600 level in the coming sessions due to caution ahead of July inflation data due Wednesday.
 
Banks were among the biggest gainers, after the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors said in its quarterly report that the central bank may lower banks' reserve requirement ratio in the third quarter.
 
So far this year, the People's Bank of China has raised the ratio, or the amount of deposits major banks must hold in reserve, three times to 17.0%.
 
The interbank association, which is overseen by the PBOC, didn't offer a reason for its forecast.
 
Bank of Communications rose 2.5% to CNY6.54, while China Merchants Bank closed 1.1% higher at CNY14.18.
 
Property developers reversed their losses, after the China Banking Regulatory Commission said overnight the recent slew of stress tests on property loans ordered for banks don't represent its assessment of property market trends or a change in its loan policy. The stress tests are part of the CBRC's efforts to boost risk controls and prevent a liquidity crisis in the banking sector.
 
Poly Real Estate Group rose 1.3% to 12.66 after falling 4.5% Thursday, while China Vanke edged up 0.1% to CNY8.00 after shedding 3.0% Thursday.
 
Despite the rebound, some analysts remained cautious about the near-term outlook for the broader market, because of uncertainties over domestic inflation.
 
Economists generally expect China's inflation to rise in July from June's 2.9%, primarily due to rising food prices.
 
The August 2010 index futures contract, the most actively traded of the four index futures contracts traded in China, ended 2.7% higher at 2920.0.
 
The futures are referenced to the CSI-300, an index of 300 Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed RMB-denominated A shares. The CSI-300 ended 1.6% higher at 2897.66. 
 
TAIWAN
 
Taiwan share prices closed up 0.33% Friday as non-high-tech stocks staged a technical rebound from losses incurred in the previous session, while the bellwether electronics sector remained lackluster, dealers said.
 
The weighted index rose 26.45 points to 7,963.30, after moving between 7,829.19 and 8,018.74, on turnover of NT$115.96 billion (US$3.65 billion).
 
The market opened flat on an overnight fall on Wall Street ahead of the US non-farm payroll data due Friday, but buying in select old economy stocks, such as food and textile firms, emerged during the trading session to lift the index, the dealers said.
 
A total of 1,729 stocks closed up and 1,723 were down, with 286 remaining unchanged.
 
The foodstuff sector made the most gains, up 2.5%, while textile stocks rose 1.8%, cement issues grew 1.2%, plastics and chemicals added 0.9% and the construction sector rose 0.4%.
 
Financial shares were up 0.3% and the machinery and
 
The weighting of the non-high-tech sector, however, is relatively small, so their strength is unlikely to get the broader market out of the current consolidation, Shih said.
 
In the foodstuff sector, Wei-Chuan Foods rose 5.17% to close at NT$39.65 and Great Wall gained 3.57% to end the day at NT$34.80.
 
Among transport stocks, China Airlines added 1.29% for a closing price of NT$19.60 and EVA Airways rose 1.36% to finish at NT$22.35.
 
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell 1.62% to NT$60.90 at close of trade, while United Microelectronics Corp. lost 0.34% to close at NT$14.35.
 
THE PHILIPPINES
 
Local stocks ended their 4-day winning streak, closing slightly lower on Friday, as investors cashed in on gains.
 
A trader said "the market was due for a technical correction."
 
At the close of trading, the key Philippine Stock Exchange index fell 4.93 points or 0.14% to 3,516.28.
 
The broader all-share index inched up 1.11 points or 0.05% to 2,229.97.
 
Among subindices, only the holding firm and property sectors were in green.
 
Losers outpaced gainers, 67 to 54, while 44 issues were unchanged.
 
A total of 1.11 billion shares worth P3.43 billion were traded.
 
Megaworld Corp. was the most actively traded stock by value, rising for the fifth straight day on Friday. It added 2.3% to a fresh 2-year high of P1.74, owing to net foreign buying.
 
Other property stocks also reached fresh highs.
 
Ayala Land Inc., which is scheduled to released first half earnings later Friday, gained 0.5% to a 31-month high of P15.80.
 
Filinvest Land, meanwhile, rose to a 30-month high of P1.18 intraday before closing down 0.8% to P1.14.
 
SINGAPORE
 
Stocks in Singapore closed 0.39 per cent lower on Friday, as investors braced for the release of US jobs data later in the day.
 
The Straits Times Index fell 11.70 points to close at 2,995.06.
 
Volume was 1.57 billion shares.
 
Losers led gainers 274 to 195.
 
Neptune Orient Lines declined 3.3 per cent to S$2.06, while Wilmar International climbed 3.7 per cent to S$6.45.
 
Singapore Airlines rose 1.37 per cent to S$16.30, while Singapore Telecommunications fell 2.56 percent to S$3.04.
 
Singapore markets are closed for the National Day holiday on Monday.
 
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) on Wednesday asked DBS Group to set aside $230 million additional regulatory capital for operational risk following the breakdown of the bank's network on July 5.
 
Analysts said the demand for regulatory capital shows that the central bank is sending a message to all banks operating in the city-state that it will not tolerate banking services disruptions in one of Asia's main banking centres.
 
Banking services at the Singapore branches and automated teller machines at DBS and its unit, POSB, were disrupted following technical problems last month. The services were restored within a few hours.
 
Singapore, which is the Asian headquarters for many private banks such as Credit Suisse, competes against Hong Kong in the fields of wealth management and funds.
 
"This incident has revealed weaknesses in DBS Bank's technology and operational risk management control," the central bank said in a statement.
 
MAS also highlighted several steps DBS should take to ensure such incidents are avoided.
 
The central bank also said it has recently written to the CEOs of all financial institutions to remind them of maintaining robust technology risk management systems.
 
"MAS will not hesitate to take appropriate supervisory action against any financial institution which fails to meet the standards," it said.
 
DBS said in a statement the additional regulatory capital would result in the bank's proforma Tier 1 capital and total capital adequacy ratio to come down by 0.2 percentage points to 12.9% and 16.3% respectively.
 
"DBS would like to assure customers that taking into account the regulatory capital charge, our total capital adequacy ratio is still comfortably above the required levels," DBS CEO Piyush Gupta said in the statement.
 
DBS, which conducted an investigation with its main vendor IBM to determine what caused the first such major disruption for the bank, said it has taken several steps to prevent such breakdowns in the future.
 
"DBS is deeply sorry for the outage and once again, my apologies to our customers for all the inconvenience caused," Gupta said in the statement.
 
MALAYSIA
 
Bursa Malaysia succumbed to selling pressures in selected heavyweights and low-liners to end lower Friday, dealers said.
 
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) fell by 1.63 points, or 0.12%, to close at 1,360.45.
 
The benchmark index opened 2.12 points higher at 1,364.2 compared with Thursday's 1,362.08 close and moved between 1,359.72 and 1,364.2.
 
Dealers said market sentiment was bearish on the back of the weak close on Wall Street and sluggish regional markets.
 
Overnight S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 1,125.81, Nasdaq declined 0.46% to 2,293.06 and Dow Jones declined 0.05% to 10,674.98 on disappointing US initial weekly jobless claims data.
 
The Finance Index rose 0.28 point to 12,285.55 and Plantation Index added 21.08 points to 6,489.75.
 
The Industrial Index, however, fell 6.16 points to 2,655.1.
 
The FBM Emas Index decreased 13.141 points to 9,224.64, FBM70 Index eased 5.671 points to 9,253.27 and the FBM Ace Index fell 17.59 points to 3,827.66.
 
Losers led gainers by 367 to 328 while 281 counters were unchanged, 390 untraded and 27 others were suspended.
 
Volume declined to 866.076 million shares worth RM1.256 billion from 993.853 million shares worth RM1.575 billion Thursday.
 
Among active stocks, TimeDotCom fell 4.5 sen to 66.5 sen and Tiger Synergy decreased seven sen to 18 sen.
 
Talam was flat at 11.5 sen, while Jadi Imaging rose half sen to 30 sen and AirAsia increased two sen to RM1.67.
 
In heavyweights, CIMB and Maxis fell two sen each to RM7.36 and RM5.29 respectively, while Maybank dropped three sen to RM7.71.
 
MISC gained 13 sen to RM8.75.
 
The Main Market volume declined to 769.749 million shares worth RM1.239 billion from 893.586 million shares worth RM1.553 billion Thursday.
 
Warrants increased to 48.418 million units valued at RM6.635 million from 45.999 million units valued at RM9.024 billion previously.
 
Turnover on the ACE Market fell to 34.566 million shares worth RM5.885 million from 46.497 million shares worth RM8.072 million on Thursday.
 
Consumer products accounted for 54.767 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 151.152 million, construction 73.503 million, trade and services 177.713 million, technology 55.1 million, infrastructure 35.727 million, finance 52.669 million, hotels 3.718 million, properties 30.21 million, plantations 30.15 million, mining 115,300, REITs 4.882 million, and closed/fund 44,200.
 
THAILAND
 
The SET in Bangkok climbed at one point to a 26-month high but ended just 0.02% higher, still its twelfth gain in succession. It has also 10 straight sessions of net buying by foreign investors, amounting to 13.7 billion baht ($427 million), which has cut net outflows this year to 2.65 billion baht.
 
Banks continued firm amid growing economic optimism. The biggest, Bangkok Bank, rose 1.1% and fourth-ranked Siam Commercial Bank gained 0.5%.
 
Thai telecoms-related stocks surged on Friday as retail investors snapped up shares in companies that will benefit from an upcoming auction of third-generation mobile phone licences.
 
The telecoms regulator plans to hold the 3G auction on Sept. 22-28, a crucial step in reforming the $4.7 billion sector that could pave for foreign players to grab a bigger slice of the industry and change the way companies pay fees to the government.
 
The regulator said on Thursday four companies had taken up bidding applications but did not disclose names of the companies.
 
Leading Asian telecoms firms such as China Mobile Ltd and South Korea's SK Telekom Co Ltd have expressed interest in the sector the 3G plan goes ahead.
 
Friday's share price gains were led by trading firm and network provider Loxley Pcl, which jumped as much as 28% to an eight-month high. It ended up 24% at 2.66 baht, while the broader market was up just 0.02%.
 
True Corp Pcl, which owns the country's third-largest mobile phone firm True Move, surged as much as 22% to near a three-year high. The group is expected to seek a foreign partner after receiving a 3G licence, analysts say.
 
Network service provider Jasmine International Pcl gained 3.8% to 1.10 baht, while Samart Corp Pcl, partly owned by Malaysia's No. 2 telecoms firm Axiata, rose 2% to 7.10 baht.
 
Handset distributor TWZ Corp Pcl advanced 3.6% to 0.86 baht, and Samart I-Mobile Pcl rose 2.6% to 1.96 baht.
 
Thai Oil, Thailand's largest oil refiner, reported an 83% fall in second-quarter net profit on Friday, in line with forecasts, due to lower refining margins and weak petrochemical spreads.
 
Thai Oil, nearly half-owned by energy company PTT, made an April-June net profit of 1.07 billion baht ($33 million), or 0.53 baht per share, down from 6.19 billion a year earlier and 2.0 billion in the first quarter.
 
Ten analysts polled by Reuters had an average forecast of 1.04 billion baht for the quarter.
 
Analysts expect refining margins to recover in the second half, but some analysts have cut their earnings forecasts for Thai Oil to reflect weaker-than-expected first-half earnings and the weak outlook in the petrochemical business.
 
Thai Oil has a refining capacity of 275,000 barrels a day of crude oil and other feedstocks, representing about 25% of Thailand's total, and also runs paraxylene petrochemical and lubricant businesses via subsidiaries.
 
Thai Oil shares jumped 17% in the April-June quarter, outperforming the market's 1.2% rise.
 
INDONESIA
 
Indonesian stocks gained for a third day on Friday as energy companies and palm oil producers surged.
 
The Jakarta Composite Index rose 15.65 points, 0.5%, to close at 3060.59. Some 3.7 billion shares worth Rp 3.7 trillion ($414 million) changed hands. Gainers outnumbered decliners 101 to 62.
 
Palm oil producers continue to gain as the commodity hit its highest level in almost five months. Astra Agro Lestari, the nation's biggest listed plantation company by market value, rose 1% after surging 8.6% on Thursday. Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia, the second-biggest firm in the sector, rose 2.1%.
 
Another palm oil producer, BW Plantation, rose 1.2%. It may seek as much as Rp 700 billion to help fund expansion by selling bonds in the fourth quarter or seeking bank loans, Investor Daily Indonesia reported, citing company director Iman Faturachman. Palm oil futures gained as much as 2.9% to 2,695 ringgit ($857) a metric ton in Kuala Lumpur before trading at 2,642 ringgit.
 
Medco Energi Internasional, the nation's biggest listed oil company, jumped 9.1%, the steepest gain since August 2009, after Sugiharto Harsoprayitno, geothermal director at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said Medco has been short-listed to build a geothermal project in North Sumatra.
 
Meanwhile, Indofood Sukses Makmur tumbled 4.1% to Rp 4,150 after it was rated "underperform" with a share-price estimate of Rp 4,300 in a new coverage on Thursday. The stock has become "fully priced" because of speculation ahead of the its plan to spin off a unit, said Macquarie Group analyst Lyall Taylor.
 
The rupiah advanced for a second week after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged to support growth.
 
The government on Thursday reported gross domestic product rose 6.2% from a year earlier in the second quarter, the biggest increase in almost two years and more than the median 6% gain forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Bank Indonesia this week kept borrowing costs at a record-low 6.5% for a 12th month and the rupiah on Tuesday reached a three-year high of 8,905 per Dollar. 
 
INDIA
 
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index lost 28.84 points, or 0.2%, to close at 18,143.99. The benchmark, which traded between 18,118.19 and 18,244.56 during the session, gained 1.5% this week. On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty shed 7.85 points, or 0.1%, to end at 5439.25.
 
Trading volume on the BSE was INR48.17 billion, little changed from INR48.77 billion Thursday. Decliners outnumbered gainers 1,529 to 1,427, while 104 stocks were unchanged.
 
Software exporters, which were buoyant in the past two sessions, slipped on profit-taking. Tata Consultancy Services ended 1.3% lower at INR865.75, while Infosys Technologies fell 0.3% to INR2,864.05.
 
Financials were mixed. State Bank of India, which hit an all-time high Thursday, slid 1.0% to INR2,620, while mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp. rose 1.4% to INR3,069.95.
 
Energy conglomerate Reliance Industries, which Thursday agreed to buy a 60% stake in a shale gas joint venture with Houston-based Carrizo Oil & Gas for $392 million, was down 0.7% at INR1,000.30. Oil & Natural Gas Corp. dipped 0.9% to INR1,231.70.
 
Among gainers, Tata Motors surged as much as 4.7% to its 52-week high of INR900.90 on hopes India's largest auto maker by revenue will report robust quarterly results. The shares pared some gains and ended at INR894.35.
 
Consumer goods makers rose on hopes that good monsoon rains would ease raw material costs. Cigarette maker ITC jumped 1.9% to INR158.80, while the BSE FMCG index was up 0.7%. 
 
AUSTRALIA
 
The Australian share market proved well supported Friday, albeit in quiet trading, ahead of US non-farm payrolls data, due for release in US trading.
 
Weakness in financials was offset by strength in materials as China's share market rose.
 
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.4 points at 4566.1, having recovered from a low of 4545.2. For the week, the index rose 1.6% - its fifth consecutive weekly gain.
 
Overnight, Wall Street's S&P 500 fell 0.1% on disappointing US initial weekly jobless claims data. The data damped some of the optimism for the US non-farm payrolls release that had been generated by better-than-expected private sector jobs data earlier in the week.
 
The Australian share market was still tracking Wall Street, having bounced 10% to a six-week high of 4584.1 on the back of similar gains on Wall Street in the past five weeks.
 
But the rally in Australian and US shares lacked significant volume and there was some concern that weak US jobs data could spike the rally.
 
While quantitative easing could tempt investors to push some money from low-yielding bonds into equities, it would also suggest US officials don't believe the US economic recovery is getting much traction, despite near-zero interest rates and unprecedented fiscal stimulus.
 
Financials weighed on the Australian market after their US peers lost ground overnight.
 
Major banks fell 0.6%-1.0%, although they recovered from intraday lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia said the overall cost of funds for domestic banks would likely increase only about 5 basis points by the end of 2011.
 
Macquarie Group fell 1.0% to A$39.55 after recovering this week, while AXA Asia Pacific Holdings remained in a trading halt before an expected announcement by the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission regarding National Australia Bank's bid for AXA APH.
 
The energy and consumer discretionary sectors also weighed on the market.
 
Energy stocks were slightly weaker, with Woodside down 0.5% to A$42.31 after crude prices fell overnight, while in the consumer discretionary sector, News Corp. fell 1.0% to A$17.47, despite having risen 2.3% on Wall Street. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal.
 
Resources rose slightly, with BHP up 0.7% to A$41.13 and Rio Tinto up 0.3% to A$73.20 on the back of a 1.0% rise in China's Shanghai Composite.
 
Agriculture stocks outperformed, with Elders up 7.5%, AWB up 3.8%, Graincorp up 3.2% and Incitec Pivot up 2.4% after wheat futures soared following Russia's ban on wheat exports due to the worst drought there in half a century. 
 
NEW ZEALAND
 
New Zealand shares were mixed, with retailers dominant. Hallenstein Glasson Holdings led gainers after saying margin recovery lifted its annual earnings. Kathmandu Holdings sank to a record low after disappointing margins.
 
The NZX 50 fell 0.04 to 3044.632. Within the index, 20 stocks fell, 13 rose and 17 were unchanged.
 
Hallenstein rose 6.1% to $3.82 after the clothing retailer said full-year profit soared as much as 57% to $28.8 million, as it eased off on discounting, improved its product range and benefited from a strong kiwi Dollar. Sales in the 12 months ended August 1 rose 4.5% to $207 million.
 
Kathmandu, the outdoor equipment retailer, dropped 4.6% to $1.68, the lowest since the outdoor equipment retailer first listed in November after it was taken public by its private equity owners. The retailers stock has fallen for three sessions since it said its gross margin was 63%, falling short of the forecast 64% in its prospectus.
 
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare fell 1% to $2.90 after its rival Resmed posted a satisfactory result but was punished with its stock sold off.
 
Moore said theres still uncertainty about the outcome of changes to medical funding in the US that has weighed in the sector.
 
Allied Farmers climbed 9.8% to 4.5 cents. The finance and agricultural services group is planning to tap investors for $19.3 million of equity capital to strengthen its balance sheet and repay debt. Guardian Trust, the trustee for its Allied Nationwide Finance unit, said Friday that the finance business is in breach of one of its trust deed financial ratios.
 
Allied, which denies the breach and is finalizing the audit of its accounts, has 14 days to remedy its position. It has suspended its prospectus in the interim.
 
Briscoe Group fell 0.8% to $1.19 after the retailer said a decline in homeware sales dented revenue in the second quarter. Sales fell 1.9% to $93.3 million in the three months ended Aug. 1, led by a 3.6% decline in homeware goods, the company said in a statement Friday. Sales at Rebel Sport rose 2.2%.
 
The company reiterated that it is on track for earnings growth in the first half.
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesWheat prices took a pause on Friday from their surge after Russia imposed a ban on grain exports on Thursday, which triggered a panic in commodities markets and sent wheat prices to their highest level since the 2007-08 global food crisis.
 
The rally opens the door to a sharp increase in the price of everyday staples such as bread and flour.
 
Vladimir Putin, Russian prime minister, on Thursday announced the ban on all the country's grain exports, effective within 10 days, after a severe drought devastated crops and wildfires spread across the country.
 
The move, which caught traders and food producers by surprise, pushed the price of wheat to its highest level in two years and evoked memories of the last time the Soviet Union suffered a catastrophic crop failure in 1972.
 
"There is full-blown panic in the European grain market," a senior trader said.
 
On Thursday, European wheat prices rose more than 12% to hit a peak of €236 a tonne on record trading volumes. US wheat futures jumped by their daily limit to $7.85 a bushel and are up more than 80% since mid-June, the fastest rally in nearly 40 years.
 
On Friday, US wheat futures traded 2.8% down to $7.65 a bushel, after hitting in early trading a two-year high of $8.41 a bushel.
 
Another trader said that prices could continue to move higher next week amid panic buying, but that from a supply and demand point of view, prices probably have already risen enough. "That does not mean the rally is going to stop," he added.
 
The rally is triggering fears that food price inflation could take off and that the world could even suffer a repeat of the 2008 food crisis should the big shortfall in wheat output persist. "Soaring grain prices have brought food inflation back to centre stage," said Joachim Fels of Morgan Stanley in London.
 
Prices of other crops including barley, corn and rapeseed also jumped sharply.
 
Shares in some of the world's largest food companies tumbled on fears they would struggle to pass on all the increased costs of buying wheat to millions of households already suffering the effects of the financial crisis. However, several companies have already said they plan immediate price rises on goods, such as bread and biscuits.
 
Unilever, the British consumer goods group, dropped 5.2%, while General Mills, one of the world's largest food companies, was 2.5% lower. Nestlé fell 2.1%. But the shares of trading companies such as ADM and Bunge surged on the prospect of more businesses exporting wheat from the US.
 
On Thursday, Mr Putin told a cabinet meeting: "I think it would be expedient to introduce a temporary ban on export grains and other agricultural goods."
 
"We cannot allow an increase in domestic prices and we need to maintain the number of cattle."
 
The ban would take effect from August 15 and last until December 31, a spokesman for Mr Putin said.
 
The worst drought in more than a century in the Black Sea region has led to widespread alarm. Forecasts for the Russian grain crop have been falling daily, with the agriculture ministry's most recent projection at 70m-75m tonnes, down from 85m tonnes a fortnight ago.
 
Last year, the harvest was 100m tonnes.
 
Traders at Glencore, the world's largest commodity trading company, on Tuesday warned the crop could fall to about 65m tonnes.
 
Cargill, the world's biggest trader of agricultural commodities, criticised Moscow's move. "Such trade barriers further distort wheat markets by making it harder for supplies to move from areas of surplus to areas of deficit, and by preventing price signals from reaching wheat farmers," it said.
 
Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Grain Union lobby group, said that the swift imposition of the ban risked undermining Russia's reputation as a reliable supplier.
 
Mr Putin said the government would disburse Rbs35bn ($1.17bn) in subsidies to agricultural producers. He added that Russia would use its grain stores for distribution without auction to regions in need
 
Commodities overall Friday finished trading mixed with gold advancing and oil declining as economic worries wracked the market.
 
Crude-oil for September delivery closed down $1.23, or 1.6% at $80.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
 
In other energy futures, heating oil was down $0.04 to $2.13 a gallon while natural gas fell $0.12, to $4.46 per million British thermal units.
 
In energy ETFs, the United States Oil Fund was down 1.61% to $36.11. The United States Natural Gas ETF was also down 3.1% to $7.52
 
Meanwhile, gold futures rose as economic worries shook the equities markets.
 
Gold for December delivery closed up 0.5% to $1,205.30 an ounce. In other metal futures, silver rose $0.14 to $18.47 a troy ounce while copper fell $0.01 to $3.34 a Pound.
 
Reinforcing copper strength are stocks in LME warehouses, which at 412,625 tonnes are down from mid-February levels above 555,000, their highest since 2003.
 
Aluminium stocks also continued their descent. They stand at about 4.4 million tonnes from a record above 4.6 million tonnes in January. The metal used in transport and packaging has been bolstered by financing deals, which are said to have tied up about 70% of LME stocks.
 
Three-month aluminium was untraded at the close but last bid at $2,190 a tonne from $2,203 on Thursday and zinc, used to galvanise steel, ended at $2,129 from $2,097.  Zinc earlier hit a $2,143, its highest since May 14.
 
Zinc cancelled warrants -- material earmarked to leave LME warehouses - stood at more than 10% of total zinc stocks on Thursday compared with a level around 3% previously.
 
Most of those cancelled warrants are in New Orleans and some traders think the material could be heading for Europe where premiums for physical have risen about 5% so far this quarter.
 
Others think the material is heading for Singapore to be used for financing deals, which release cash for producers and earn higher than money market returns for banks.
 
Stainless steel ingredient nickel touched $22,280 a tonne, its highest since May 24. It closed at $22,075 a tonne from $21,860 on Thursday.
 
News that miner Lonmin had been ordered by the South African government to stop selling nickel, copper and other offshoots of its platinum production due to a dispute over the prospecting rights helped push up prices, traders said.
 
Tin was untraded but last bid at $20,725 a tonne from $20,475 and battery material lead ended at $2,165 from $2,185.
 
Used in electrical solder, tin earlier touched a fresh two year high at $20,900.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 Data showing the US economy lost twice as many jobs as expected capped a miserable week for the Dollar, pushing it to its weakest level in almost four months.
 
The Dollar slid 1.5% over the week against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, as investors soured on the outlook for the world's largest economy, looking instead to brighter prospects elsewhere.
 
Many investors saw in Friday's crucial employment report confirmation of the sluggishness of the US recovery.
 
The news that non-farm payrolls fell by 131,000 in July, while private sector hiring was a tepid 71,000, triggered a fresh slide in the Dollar. The currency dropped as much as 1% against the Yen in the wake of the news, falling to an eight-month low of Y85.03 - within a whisker of its 15-year low of Y84.80.
 
The Euro rose 2.1% to a new three-month peak of $1.3333, while Sterling surpassed $1.60 for the first time since February.
 
Traders said the markets were now pricing in looser monetary policy after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday. Officials are debating whether to maintain the size of the Fed's balance sheet by reinvesting money from maturing government bonds.
 
The prospect of looser monetary policy for longer raised the prospect of a revival of the Dollar carry trade, in which investors take advantage of cheap US borrowing costs to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.  Slowing growth and the continued balance of payments pressures will continue to weigh on the US Dollar.
 
Asian currencies strengthened over the course of the week. The Australian Dollar rose 2% to hit a high of $0.9221 , while the South Korean won rose 1.8% to Won1,161 per Dollar and the Singapore Dollar was flirting with all-time highs against the US unit.
 
The Yen's sharp rise against the Dollar led to some chatter that the Japanese authorities might intervene. But while policymakers noted the currency's strength and said they were "watching closely", analysts played down talk of intervention. Many said that picture painted by the Dollar-Yen rate is quite misleading, as the Yen has not risen sharply against other currencies.
 
Mexico's Peso and Canada's Dollar were the worst performers among major currencies after the payrolls data. Each country has the US as its biggest trading partner. Canada's economy also unexpectedly shed jobs last month, with the government statistics agency reporting a net loss of 9,300 positions.
 
The Canadian currency tumbled 1% to C$1.0268 to the greenback, while the peso dropped 1% to 12.6892 to the Dollar.
 
The difference between short-term lending rates in the US and Europe widened, which may damp demand for US assets and the Dollar. The rate that London-based banks say they charge each other for three-month loans in Dollars fell for the 18th straight day, while the rate for Euro loans rose.
 
The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for Dollars declined to 0.411% Friday, the lowest level since May 6, according to the British Bankers' Association. The rate was 0.418% Thursday. Libor for Euros for three months rose to 0.834% Friday, the highest in a year, from 0.832% Thursday, the BBA said.
 
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six trading partners, fell 0.6% to 80.367 and touched 80.085, the lowest level since April 14. The measure also declined on July 2, when the government reported a loss of jobs, while it rose on June 4, when data showed a gain in May of 431,000 positions.
 
The index slid 1.4% for the past five days for a ninth weekly loss, the most since December
 
The South African Rand strengthened after worse- than-estimated US payrolls data boosted speculation the Federal Reserve will leave its main interest rate at a record low for longer, boosting the appeal of higher-yielding assets.
 
South Africa's currency appreciated as much as 0.7% against the Dollar to 7.1993 before trading 0.2% up at 7.2324 by 4:53 p.m. in Johannesburg, from a previous close of 7.2483. The move extended the rand's fifth weekly advance versus the Dollar to 0.9%.
 
Finally, as always in currencies we close with the RMB here in China. The RMB rose against the US Dollar late Friday afternoon due to demand for the Chinese currency from exporters and an unexpectedly lower Dollar-RMB central parity rate set by the central bank.
 
On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.7683, down from Thursday's close of CNY6.7719. It traded between CNY6.7679 and CNY6.7788. 
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's banks have come a long way since the days of full state ownership and perpetual near-insolvency. But they have not come far enough. This week, they revealed that they face default on Rmb1,550bn of loans indirectly made to local governments - one-fifth of the total lent (Rmb7,770bn). These figures are a sobering reminder that, for all the progress made in recent years, the transformation of the Chinese banking sector is still far from complete.
 
The latest revelations can be traced back to Beijing's 2008 stimulus policies. Where other countries drained their public finances to kickstart their economies, China shifted much of the burden on to domestic banks - many of which are listed companies. This was stimulus by stealth: private investors, which own up to a quarter of China's largest banks, effectively subsidised Beijing's spending spree. The government simply did not have the organisational means to run a sizeable stimulus through the central budget.
 
With many of the resulting loans directed to low return public works projects, many feared a return to darker times. As it happens, the banks appear to have got off relatively lightly.
 
That should not distract from the fact that a sectoral default rate of 20% is devastating for any profit-driven bank. And local governments loans are no small part of overall lending portfolios: they account for about 20% of outstanding bank credit in China. If lending to the real estate sector, which accounts for another 20% of loans, turns sour, banks could be in even bigger trouble.
 
China should put in place mechanisms to steer large amounts of fiscal spending through the central budget. A government-directed fiscal stimulus would have been more transparent and less wasteful. It would also have avoided putting the banking sector at risk. A stable credit supply will be critical to China's continued growth.
 
The fact that part of the banking sector is now privately owned is also significant. While the government will come to the rescue of distressed major banks, it is not clear how long investors will be happy to subsidise public projects. If Beijing wants to continue to attract private capital to its domestic banks - which will be increasingly important as these institutions expand - it should learn to treat investors with care.
 
************************************
 
BYD, the Chinese carmaker backed by US billionaire Warren Buffett, has slashed its sales forecast for this year by 25% as growth in the world's largest auto market slows.
 
The Shenzhen-based car and battery maker on Wednesday said it expected to sell 600,000 cars in 2010, down from 800,000 forecast earlier this year, because of capacity constraints.
 
The revision comes amid signs of softening in China's car market. This week Ford said sales in China fell 6.3% in July from the same period a year ago. General Motors has said that inventory at many of its rivals in China is building up.
 
Last month, sales of passenger cars in China rose 15.4% from a year earlier, a pick-up from June's 10.9% growth but a steep fall from May's 25% rise. On a month-on-month basis, sales dropped 3.4% from June, their fourth consecutive decline.
 
The China Automotive Technology and Research Centre, which compiles the industry data, has warned that growth could slow further in August as car­makers cut production during the summer.
 
BYD, one of the most popular local car brands in China, started its life as a battery maker but now generates about 70 to 80% of revenues from its cars. Its F3 compact sedan was the best-selling car in China last year.
 
In 2008, Mr Buffett took a 10% stake in the company because of BYD's battery technology and its aim to become a force in electric cars. Conventional cars, however, still account for the bulk of BYD's sales.
 
In the first six months of this year, BYD sold 289,000 cars in China, up 63.5% from a year earlier. The company's sales rose 162% to 448,000 units in 2009.
 
The automaker will start selling electric and hybrid cars in western Europe next year and become the first Chinese company to market alternative-energy-powered vehicles in the region.
 
The E6 electric car is among the models BYD plans to introduce, the company has said.
 
Analysts said it was not surprising that BYD was cutting its sales target given the state of the car market in China.
 
Last year, the government "encouraged people to buy cars by giving tax rebates and banks were lending money to everyone. This year is more normal. Credits are much tighter," said Johnny Wong, analyst at RMBta Securities.
 
China overtook the US as the world's largest auto market in 2009.
 
However, this year analysts expect growth in China to fall to about 15-20%.
 
************************************
 
Almost every Chinese city has an industrial park or two but few are as attractively named as the Big Peach Flower industrial zone in Hefei. And even fewer are growing as quickly. Gree, the country's biggest maker of air conditioners, opened a plant less than two years ago that already employs 10,000 people. Next door Midea, another air conditioner-maker, also has a vast factory.
 
What is most remarkable about these new plants is their location. Hefei is the capital of Anhui province, a rural backwater 400km inland from Shanghai, whose main role in the boom of the past three decades has been to supply labour to the factory towns on the south and east coasts. Now, however, the modern industrial world of the coastal region is coming inland to Anhui.
 
This shift inland could prove vital to China's economic prospects over the next few years. At a time of uncertainty about the country's ability to maintain high growth, the accelerated development of the centre of the country is providing an important fillip.
 
After an impressive rebound from the global crisis, China is running into new headwinds. The government is scaling back its massive monetary stimulus, prompting a slowdown in the growth of activity. Meanwhile, rising demand for exports from consumers in the US and Europe can no longer be relied upon. Increasing domestic demand is more important than ever given the mounting signs that the recovery in the rest of the world is faltering. Yet there are plenty of doubts about where any new growth will come from.
 
To answer that question, it helps to think in terms of economic geography. The country can be divided roughly into three zones. There is the prosperous, industrialised coastal belt from Beijing in the north through Shanghai in the east to Guangdong in the south. Then, to the far west, there is a vast expanse that has received heavy public investment but remains relatively poor and underdeveloped in spite of a few pockets of prosperity.
 
It is the third region - the centre - that is providing the new boost to the economy. In provinces such as Anhui, Hunan and Jiangxi, previously unfashionable cities are entering a phase of "industrial take-off". A combination of rising costs and wages on the coast, better rail and road infrastructure, and stimulus spending is encouraging Chinese companies to join a rush that started as a trickle a decade ago. Hefei is one of the most striking examples.
 
Permits limit the benefits of a drift to big city life
 
The men anointed to be China's next generation of leaders rarely say much in public. So when a speech given by Li Keqiang - widely assumed to be the successor to premier Wen Jiabao in 2012 - was published in June, it was pored over for any tips about his policy priorities.
 
Most of what Mr Li had to say was standard rhetoric but the striking aspect of the speech was the emphasis he placed on urbanisation. "Accelerating urbanisation is an important part of economic restructuring," he said.
 
China has been urbanising rapidly for much of the past 30 years but it is only recently that the issue has become a priority in Beijing. Policymakers see urbanisation as a potential solution to many of the economic challenges they face - most importantly, as a way of unleashing the hidden potential of Chinese consumers, which they hope will reduce the need for public investment and lower the trade surplus.
 
Yet it will take more than just moving larger numbers of people to cities to encourage Chinese to consume more. It also depends on how the urbanisation is conducted. That means some tough political choices for Mr Li and his colleagues.
 
China has avoided the slums that scar the cities of so many developing countries by operating a strict system of residential permits - known as hukou - which make it hard for people from rural areas to move permanently to cities. There is a cost, though. Under the hukou system, only official city residents have access to education and other services. The result is that the country's 200m migrant workers are treated as second-class citizens.
 
Reforming the hukou is a central part of any plan to boost consumption. If migrant workers and their families were allowed to settle in cities, they would buy houses and spend their incomes in local shops rather than saving to send money home. But to abolish the hukou means finding new sources of revenue for local governments - a subject that has proved politically treacherous.
 
The pattern in which cities develop will also affect the economic impact of urbanisation. Chinese planners want to create densely populated urban areas, which would make it easier to deliver public services, promote the retail sector and encourage energy efficiency by reducing the need for private cars.
 
The pattern in most Chinese cities, however, is one of sprawl. Local governments raise a lot of their funds by selling land, which encourages them to grab plots of farmland on the outskirts, constantly expanding the boundaries of the city. If Beijing wants to garner the benefits from urbanisation that Mr Li is banking on, it will need to find new ways to prevent urban sprawl.
 
This is a process whose time has come. The possibility that central China can take on the baton of development from the maturing eastern provinces is clearly good news for national growth.
 
The boom in Anhui and other parts of the centre is the result of a mix of government push and market pull. Public spending on transport infrastructure has transformed the sense of distance in parts that used to feel much more isolated from the coast.
 
Anhui, for instance, will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of heavy investment in high-speed railways, including the north-south line that will link Shanghai and Beijing, and the east-west line from Shanghai to Chengdu. The train journey from Hefei to Shanghai used to take eight hours. It can now be done in three and a half.
 
Japan's investment in the Shinkansen high-speed rail network in the 1960s and 1970s helped redraw the economic map of the country, reducing the dominance of Tokyo and Osaka, and allowing places such as Nagoya and Fukuoka to emerge as industrial centres. The new rail lines will accelerate the "catch-up in central China". It is creating a virtuous cycle. Relocation of companies creates new job opportunities and that will also encourage an increase in consumption.
 
Yet it is not just government planners who are opening up cities in the central zone - it is also market forces. The south of the coastal area, in particular, has been hit in recent months by a wave of strikes by workers asking for higher wages, and many businesses have begun to question the competitiveness of producing in the region. A handful have decided the answer is to move to Vietnam, say, or Bangladesh. Many more, however, have opted instead to move inland.
 
A decade ago, Anhui received hardly any direct investment from other provinces. From 2006, however, the amount has nearly doubled every year and, according to the provincial government, it reached Rmb464bn ($69bn, €52bn, £43bn) last year - a huge sum for a relatively small, poor province. Alongside improved logistics, cheaper labour is among the main attractions. The minimum monthly wage in Shanghai is Rmb1,120; in Anhui, it is Rmb720.
 
Gree is one example of the investment surge. Founded in the early 1990s in Zhuhai, the southern city near Hong Kong, it has become one of the world's biggest manufacturers of air conditioners. It started production in Hefei only 18 months ago, but its plant now covers 730,000 sq m - 18 times the size of a large football stadium - and produces 6m units a year.
 
On a smaller scale, Andier Electrical Equipment has a factory that employs 100 people in the southern city of Shenzhen, making aluminium tubes and steel pipes. This year it opened a plant of similar size in Hefei. Wang Gang, the general manager, says it made the move because production costs are 10% lower than in the coastal regions and because so many of its clients were also moving production to Anhui and other parts of the centre.
 
The change in the flow of investment is shifting the dynamic of migration. Anhui is infamous for exporting its young to coastal regions to work on construction sites and factories. As many as one-fifth of its 67m population are working in other parts of the country. At New Year, hundreds of thousands pack the trains going back to the province.
 
That is beginning to change as jobs are being created locally. Liu Erlin, a 21-year-old Anhui native, found his first job in a factory on the south coast. But he returned last year and now works on the quality control line at the Gree plant in Hefei. "It is much easier now for me to go back to my family," he says.
 
If the flow of investment and returning migrants is sustained, it will transform other aspects of the local economy. Workers with reliable jobs will need homes, fuelling investment in the property sector. They will also look for smarter places to spend, boosting consumption growth. HSBC, which caters to high-end customers, has opened a branch in Hefei - a sign that there is a booming managerial class. Tesco, Walmart and Carrefour have opened supermarkets for the new middle class.
 
Yet there are also signs that the growth in the centre could run aground. Like so many other boom towns, Hefei has its share of vanity projects. A government district has been built 10 miles from the centre, including a town hall with two 30-storey curved towers that look on to a man-made water feature called Swan Lake. The planned airport is designed in the shape of a fish.
 
The property fever that gripped many urban areas in the past year has hit Hefei. Huge billboards advertise residential complexes with names such as Toscana and Lakeside Times Square. South of the city centre as many as 50 high-rise apartment blocks are under construction, creating a vast new neighbourhood. According to Li Xinhua, of local estate agent AHhouse, prices in Hefei rose 50% last year - driven mostly by locals buying flats but also by investors from other provinces. "There has been some speculative buying going on, for sure," says Mr Li.
 
However, as in other urban areas, the housing market in Hefei has been at a standstill since the national government announced in April measures to try to restrain speculation. Local observers are optimistic that a big crash will be avoided - prices will fall about 10%, they say, before resuming their upward path. But no one knows for sure whether the government can engineer a soft landing.
 
More broadly, the risk facing Hefei and other parts of the centre is that their recent growth has been too reliant on public investment, which will inevitably decrease as Beijing withdraws some of last year's stimulus.
 
Indeed, according to the provincial government's numbers, investment accounted for more than 90% of Anhui's gross domestic product in 2009 - which would appear to indicate a huge risk of an investment bubble. Such statistics must be taken with a pinch of salt, given that local governments routinely under-report the services sector and overstate their investment projects. Yet they do suggest places such as Anhui are vulnerable to a slowdown in public spending.
 
Two risks, in particular, lie ahead. Like many local governments, Anhui has borrowed a great deal over the past two years through investment companies that it controls. Yet the banking regulator estimated last week that nearly one-quarter of loans to local government businesses were "high risk". Should a chunk go sour in the next few years, the flow of investment to the provinces is likely to shrink. A spike in inflation could have the same effect, as it would probably lead to a rise in interest rates and reduced lending. Higher interest rates would also put pressure on the finances of many ongoing investment projects.
 
The boom in the centre, therefore, is not without its dangers. The spread of industry inland could provide a welcome buffer for the national economy as stimulus slows. But, for all their rapid flourishing, the economies of cities such as Hefei and its Big Peach Flower industrial zone remain fragile.
 
************************************
 
Venezuela, the largest oil producer in South America, is shipping 200,000 barrels a day of crude to China to repay $20 billion of debt borrowed from the Asian nation to finance power, agriculture and technology projects.
 
The OPEC member, planning to ramp up China shipments to 1 million barrels a day by 2012, is selling oil at market prices to repay the 10-year loan, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Thursday in an interview in Caracas. Shipments to repay the cash represent half Venezuela's daily crude exports to China.
 
"We're diversifying our export markets; our international policy is going in this direction," Ramirez, also president of state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, said at his office beneath paintings of Cuba's Fidel Castro and Che Guevara. "We don't cut prices in any of our international agreements."
 
Venezuela is tapping Asian nations that need crude to fuel growth in their fast-growing economies for cash. President Hugo Chavez is seeking funds to restructure the country's economy to provide more jobs for the poor and address power shortages.
 
China agreed to lend the Latin American nation $20 billion in April to finance development projects in return for future oil supplies. PDVSA, the state oil company, and China National Petroleum Corp., or CNPC, also signed a separate $16.3 billion joint-venture agreement this year for a project that will pump 1 million barrels a day of oil for Asian refineries.
 
The International Energy Agency projects China's oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030 from 2006 levels. The nation's oil use may average about 8.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2010, up 9.5% from a year earlier, CNPC's research unit said this week.
 
Venezuela is finalizing joint-venture projects with Italy's Eni SpA and Petrovietnam and is in talks with Japanese companies including Itochu Corp. and Marubeni Corp. to develop the offshore natural-gas project known as Mariscal Sucre, the minister said.

 
PDVSA is also close to determining conditions to lease an offshore gas platform in waters near Trinidad and Tobago to replace the Aban Pearl rig, he said. The Aban Pearl sank on May 13 because of a faulty floatation system.
 
Ramirez, whose office is also adorned with a statue of South American liberation hero Simon Bolivar, said Venezuela operates two very large crude carriers with China and will start construction on a joint refinery at the end of this year in the Asian country. Venezuela is diversifying its export markets as Chavez distances himself from the US, the country's largest trading partner.
 
Venezuela sent an average 1.01 million barrels of crude a day to the US in May, down from a peak of 1.55 million barrels a day in 1998, one year before Chavez took office, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
 
"Shipments to China are increasing, independent of what the US does," Ramirez said.
 
Venezuela has tapped the first $5 billion of the $20 billion credit line with China, which consists of $10 billion in US currency and $10 billion in Chinese RMB, PDVSA said in a statement on July 29. Morgan Stanley, in an Aug. 2 report, said exports to Asia "may not be made at market prices, but rather at a discount."
 
Chavez said in April that the credit line is the largest that China Development Bank Corp. has extended to any country. Trade between China and Venezuela surged to $8.9 billion in 2008 from $85.5 million in 1999, according to Venezuelan state bank Bancoex.
 
Venezuela, which has forged close ties with Iran, isn't currently supplying the Persian country with gasoline amid fresh economic sanctions from Europe and the US, which Ramirez called "savage" and "pre-war" measures.
 
"The shipments of energy to Iran haven't been frequent," he said. "Several occasional deliveries were made before the sanctions. At this moment we haven't programmed any shipments, but it has nothing to do with the sanctions."
 
Ramirez, 47, said that the government hasn't received a formal request from BP Plc to sell its Venezuelan assets as part of a global divestment plan to raise as much as $30 billion for clean-up efforts in the Gulf of Mexico after the Macondo well oil spill.
 
PDVSA, which finances Chavez's social programs, including adult education courses, food distribution units and other non- oil activities, saw its profit fall 53% to $4.4 billion in 2009 because of production cuts at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a slump in prices.
 
Ramirez, who helped counter a two-month oil strike intended to oust Chavez from power in 2003, is also a leading member of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela. Elevators at the Oil Ministry say "moving towards Bolivarian socialism" in electronic lettering next to the floor number.
 
"We aren't a private company or a company worried about commercial criteria," Ramirez said.
 
PDVSA has transferred $600 million in the first half of 2010 to the off-budget development fund known as Fonden after sending $577 million last year and more than $12 billion in 2008. The company plans to boost investment 27% this year to $16.5 billion for oil exploration and production, Ramirez said.
 
Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, will maintain current crude production of 3.01 million barrels a day this year and doesn't expect an output increase for the 12 country Vienna- based group, Ramirez said. The country aims to boost production to 4 million barrels a day in 2015, he said.
 
Crude oil, which has averaged $78.27 a barrel this year, should rise further to within a price band of $80 to $100 a barrel, he said in the interview.
 
Crude oil for September delivery declined 46 cents Friday, or 0.6%, to settle at $82.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 14% from a year ago.
 
"We're satisfied because the tendency is for oil to get closer to a fair price," said Ramirez, wearing a dark blue suit and glasses. "We're preparing our production capacity to be ready for when OPEC decides to increase our quotas." 
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 Concerns about jobs and economic recovery are expected to overshadow a strong earnings season for investors next week as Federal Reserve Board leaders meet to decide whether to further stimulate the weak US economy.
 
On Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee, while not expected to alter interest rates, is widely expected to announce further measures for so-called "quantitative easing," which would keep rates low, likely boost bonds and leave equity investors guessing.
 
Hewlett-Packard shares will be a highlight Monday morning when markets open after the storied Silicon Valley technology company dropped an after-hours bombshell Friday, saying Chief Executive Mark Hurd had stepped down after becoming the focus of a sexual harassment probe at the company.
 
Next week will also see some of the last S&P 500 constituents reporting quarterly earnings. Tyson Foods reports Monday, Walt Disney on Tuesday, Cisco Systems on Wednesday, DeVry on Thursday, and J.C. Penney on Friday; not that too much can be read into these reports because let's face it, all 'better than expected' or positive figures are all down to cost-cutting and nothing at all to do with forward momentum in the companies themselves.
 
About 90% of the S&P 500 has reported quarterly earnings so far. Of those companies reporting, 75% have turned in results above expectations and 16% have fallen below estimates. The S&P 500 Index has grown by 3.7% since July 12, when Alcoa kicked off earnings season.
 
Sectors turning in the best results have been health-care with 83% of S&P 500 companies turning in better-than-expected results; industrials with 81% of companies beating estimates, and telecom with 78% of companies topping estimates.
 
Worst performing sectors include materials and energy with 28% and 26% of companies turning in results that fell below estimates respectively.
 
For the S&P 500, sectors that still have several companies left to report include consumer discretionary and consumer staples.
 
For US economic data next week, investors will get second-quarter productivity and wholesale inventories on Tuesday, the US trade deficit for June on Wednesday, import and initial jobless claims on Thursday and on Friday the consumer price index, the government's retail sales report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report.
 
Economists expect that after several quarters of steep increases, productivity is expected to slow for the second quarter to a rise of 0.3% compared with a 2.8% rise is in the first quarter. Productivity had been rising quickly in recent quarters as companies cut back on their workforces and pushed the responsibilities of existing employees.
 
Friday's retail sales report and consumer price index may also weigh heavily on the market. Economists expect retail sales rose 0.4% in July compared with June's fall of 0.5%. Inflation is expected to remain tame as it has been for several months, rising 0.2% in July based on the average estimates by economists.
 
In the AsiaPac region, in its quarterly outlook, the Reserve Bank of Australia signaled interest rates are likely to remain on hold for a few more months at least, saying policy settings are appropriate with the economy in recovery and inflation risk contained.
 
"With growth in the Australian economy likely to be close to trend over the year ahead, underlying inflation having declined in the 2%-3% range and lending rates around average, the board views the current setting of the cash rate as appropriate at this stage," it said in its August Statement on Monetary Policy.
 
Hovering around full employment already, the Labour market is widely predicted, including by the RBA, to fall into inflation-accelerating territory in coming months. If this were to happen next week, it would firm rate hike expectations and provide a tailwind for the Australian Dollar to continue pushing higher.
 
The Bank of Japan is likely to hold off on increasing monetary stimulus next week as policy makers are unconvinced the Yen's approach toward a 15-year high will derail the nation's economic recovery.
 
The BOJ will keep unchanged its bank-loan program and monthly bond purchases on Aug. 10, according to all but one of 17 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The forecast reflects Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi's July 21 comment that companies are better able to cope with the Yen's gain now than in November, when it rose to the highest level since 1995.
 
With Prime Minister Naoto Kan refraining from the pressure on the bank he applied last year to do more to end deflation, and firms from Sony to Toyota raising profit projections, the bank has less of a trigger to move.
 
China's auction of nine-month treasury bills Friday had the highest bid-to-cover ratio of the year, reflecting strong demand from banks seeking returns after the government restricted lending to help contain inflation.
 
The 10 billion RMB ($1.5 billion) issue attracted orders for 2.33 times the amount on offer, while the last sale of similar-maturity notes on June 11 failed to meet a 20 billion RMB target. The average yield was 1.8843%, down from 2.0511% last time. The seven-day repurchase rate, which reflects interbank funding availability, slid 1.03 percentage points between the two auction dates to 1.7%.
 
The government aims to limit new loans to 7.5 trillion RMB this year after banks in 2009 made a record 9.59 trillion RMB available to borrowers. New loans amounted to 4.62 trillion RMB in the first half and the Shanghai Securities News reported this week that July's total was about 700 billion RMB.
 
The People's Bank of China said Thursday inflation risks persist, though these are limited by slowing credit growth, stabilizing commodity prices and "abundant" domestic manufacturing capacity. A government report next week is expected to show consumer prices rose 3.3% from a year earlier in July, the most since October 2008, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
 
The central bank took out a net 2 billion RMB from the money market in open-market operations this week, compared with net withdrawals of 84 billion RMB last week and 81 billion RMB in the period ended July 23.
 
China Unicom plans to start selling a version of Apple's iPhone with Wi-Fi capability in China next week, a China Unicom official familiar with the situation said Thursday.
 
The iPhones that Unicom has offered in China so far have come with the wireless function disabled to comply with previous government regulations, but the missing function has made the phones less attractive to buyers.
 
In Europe, a favourable Spanish auction outcome and robust German industrial orders data helped trigger a revival in the Euro to test resistance levels above 1.32.
 
The ECB left interest rates at 1.0% following the latest council meeting. ECB President Trichet stated that he was surprised at the recent strength of growth indicators and warned that the recovery was likely to be uneven over the next few months. Trichet also commented that the bank was looking to phase out extraordinary liquidity measures which provided some degree of Euro support.
 
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee left its key interest rate and bond purchases unchanged at its meeting Thursday, amid indications that the economic pickup is slowing, even as price pressures continue to mount.
 
The decisions the central bank faces are getting more difficult. While the exact implications won't become evident until harvests are in, analysts say that hot, dry weather conditions in Russia and Western Europe, which have already seen wheat prices rise astronomically, could push up the prices of goods in UK supermarkets.
 
Also of concern will be the intention of clothing retailers to raise prices in the coming months in response to the higher cost of cotton, lower spare capacity and a rise in the sales tax to 20% from 17.5% on Jan. 4.
 
But counteracting that is the continuing fragility of the UK recovery: While the economy grew at its fastest pace in more than four years in the second quarter, analysts are doubtful it can maintain that performance as constrained credit, weakness in the UK's major trading partner, the Euro zone, and fiscal austerity weigh on activity.
 
There are still ongoing concerns about the strength of the recovery. UK firms have plenty of spare capacity and high rates of unemployment are holding down domestic demand, while signs of a slowdown in the global recovery suggest exports are unlikely to come to the rescue just yet.
 
I have to smile at that last point because I'm struggling to think what it is that the UK exports nowadays - fat, beer-swilling tourists in Union Jack shorts (both male and female)?
 
The BOE is aware of the price risks in the UK, with Governor Mervyn King acknowledging last week that inflation has been high for much of the past four years. But in the same breath, he said the debate is about choosing the right degree of stimulus, not "applying the brakes."
 
Central-bank officials will have a further opportunity to explain their assessment of economic prospects at a news conference Wednesday, following the release of the MPC's Inflation Report. But while they will emphasize the need to closely monitor the impact of high-visibility price gains on public perceptions of inflation, the main focus is likely to remain on the need for monetary policy to continue its support for demand, amid continuing threats to economic expansion.
 
Venezuela will sell $3 billion worth of Dollar-denominated bonds in the local market next week, an official from the Finance Ministry said Friday.
 
The bonds would come due in 2022 and investors would buy them in the local bolivar currency, said the official, who asked not to be identified and provided no further details.
 
The government's last Dollar-denominated sovereign debt sale was in October when it sold $5 billion in an effort to boost a weak bolivar and provide much-needed Dollars to importers. Local investors were able to buy the bonds in bolivars, then turn around and sell them abroad for greenbacks.
 
Venezuela has a restrictive, government-managed currency exchange system that provides locals with Dollars at three rates that range from 2.6 bolivars for $1 to 5.3 bolivars for $1, depending on what the Dollars are needed for.
 
But even the most expensive rate of VEF5.3 for $1 requires special approval, forcing some Venezuelan importers to either go without Dollars or buy them illegally on the black market.
 
That covers the world I think; from Australia to Venezuela next week I really am struggling to see how the markets can continue their one day down, three days up, one day down pattern and feel we are getting closer than perhaps people realise to the major correction that is coming.
 
Maybe after everyone returns from holiday .......
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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