Good
Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
I have been
asked if I could increase the
size of the fonts in my Newsletter,
as some people are finding it
difficult to read the smaller
letters. So my apologies if
the layout of this Newsletter
has changed a little.
Okay, here's the current position.
Forget 200
day averages; forget what
used to happen to Bonds when
stocks went down; forget Gold's
correlation to the US Dollar
and stockmarkets.
In fact,
forget pretty much everything
that used to set a precedent
because in truth, nothing
is following patterns that
can be considered 'The Norm'.
We've got
currencies going haywire,
stockmarkets diving all over
the world and a seemingly
unstoppable downward momentum
in both the Banking Sector
and of course the Carmakers.
So look
around Ladies & Gentlemen,
what can you see that can
in any way be used to cast
a 'positive' spin on the current
global financial crisis?
Nothing;
absolutely nothing and it
has to get even worse than
this before it gets better
I'm afraid.
Global markets
shed 8-10% this week and if
GM does not make it (which
looks increasingly to be the
case) then we can look at
further declines of 10% or
more.
To bring
the current crisis into perspective,
how about this for a 'banking'
scoop; Malaysia's very own
Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings
Bhd has overtaken Citigroup
Inc., the US bank that was
once the world's biggest bank,
by market value.
Citigroup
fell as low as 97 cents in
New York Stock Exchange composite
trading before closing at
US$1.02, marking an 85% decline
this year and giving the New
York-based company a market
value of US$5.7 billion.
Bumiputra-Commerce
Holdings Bhd's market capitalisation
as of Friday is RM22.2 billion
while its assets are valued
at RM210 billion.
The market
capitalisation of two other
top banks in the country,
Public Bank and Maybank, is
at RM28.79 billion and RM23.53
billion respectively.
So a Malaysian
Bank is bigger than Citibank;
and it does not stop there.
Japan's
Carmakers, whilst in a rut
of their own, lead the US
'giants' in market share and
cash in the bank.
Oh how the
mighty appear to have fallen.
Even China
this week struggled to buoy
markets, with the finance
minister and premier both
stating 'fast and heavy-hitting'
stimulus packages that lifted
markets in China to huge midweek
gains; but by the end of the
week, markets tailed off again
as apart from 'talking about'
a stimulus package, nothing
further came from the comments.
Interest
rates in Europe and the UK
dropped by another half base
points and pretty soon, the
Governments might end up paying
us to borrow money - now there's
a thought!
But seriously,
it is impossible for anyone
to gauge what will happen
next because from Obama to
Brown, Trichet to Wen Jia
Bao, it appears that whilst
they are all awash with ideas,
there is very little happening.
The reason
for this is simple; at no
point in history are there
any similar examples, any
comparisons or case-studies
that even closely resemble
the current global problem
and so to a country, no-one
seems to know what to do next
in order to solve the crisis.
Even those
blessed with a talent for
reading Crystal Balls are
now losing their jobs. It's
all gone 'cloudy'.
Whichever
way things go though, as mentioned
in a Newsletter late last
year - if China does things
right, after some initial
hiccups/declines, within the
next five years we are going
to see a whole new World Order
in finance and I cannot see
anyone sitting at the top
other than China.
Communism
has too many faults to mention
but one thing it does achieve,
rightly or wrongly, is 'getting
things done" and at the moment
this is exactly what the world
needs - proactive, not reactive.
Fast not slow.
Let's face
it, to get anything done in
the US, new policies have
to go through a mind-boggling
series of hoops to get approved
- by which time, another problem
has arisen because of the
circuitous route the first
policy took to be implemented.
"Too Big
To Fail" is a phrase we're
hearing more and more when
talking about GM, Citibank
or Bank of America.
How about we turn that around;
'Too Failed to be Big'!
An apt phrase
to describe the US going forward!
On to the
numbers for the week:
|
| US
Markets
How
the US did this week .....
|
US
stocks finished marginally higher
on Friday after a late rally led by
the energy sector, which was boosted
by a rise in oil prices.
Equities
had fallen steeply
during the day on
the back of news
that unemployment
levels for December
and January were
revised up, contributing
to the highest rate
in a quarter of
a century.
But
a late surge meant
that shares ended
a bruising week
with a rise that
was as small as
it was rare.
Energy
stocks were the
biggest winners,
with Chevron gaining
3.2% to $58.27 and
Exxon Mobil picking
up 2.9% to $64.03.
The
S&P ended up 0.1%
at 683.38 and the
Dow Jones Industrial
Average was 0.5%
higher at 6,626.94.
The Nasdaq Composite
Index fell however,
off 0.4% at 1,293.85.
But
beyond energy stocks
there was little
good news as the
financial sector
continued its slide.
JPMorgan
was one of the heavier
fallers, losing
4% to $15.93, while
PNC Financial dropped
7.5% to $18.51.
Investors
fear there will
be no let up in
the selling of financials
unless a decision
is made by legislators
to take further
action to shore
up the sector.
But
Wells Fargo bucked
the trend after
it became the last
traditional commercial
bank to slash its
dividend, dropping
it from 34 cents
to 5 cents.
Before
Friday, the company's
shares had lost
43.6% in a week
on expectations
it would cut its
pay-out. Its shares
rebounded 6% to
$8.61, suggesting
investors had feared
an even steeper
reduction.
Telecoms
companies suffered
when JPMorgan warned
that AT&T might
soon have to cut
its dividend to
conserve cash. AT&T
fell 0.1% to $22.58,
while Verizon also
dropped, losing
2.3% to $27.28.
JPMorgan
also had a warning
for the technologies
sector, cutting
its price target
and profit views
on Apple, saying
the next few quarters
could be "bumpy".
This triggered a
sell-off across
the sector, which
had outperformed
the S&P index by
1.5% over the last
week. Apple's shares
fell 4% to $85.30.
General
Motors slumped further
after saying it
might cost $1bn
to divest the Swedish
carmaker Saab. Its
top executives are
also reported to
be more open to
the idea of a speedy
bankruptcy and reorganisation.
The company's shares
lost 22% to $1.45.
There
was good news for
Macy's, however,
which was raised
to a "conviction
buy" from "neutral"
by Goldman Sachs
on reduced fears
about the company's
balance sheet. Its
shares lifted 5.5%
to $6.94.
Coca-Cola
was also able to
give the markets
a bounce after saying
it would invest
$2bn in new plant
and distribution
infrastructure in
China over the next
three years. Its
shares rose 3.3%
to $39.10.
A
turbulent week for
General Electric,
during which their
shares dipped to
lows not seen since
1991, ended on a
high as analysts
at both Merrill
Lynch and Bernstein
Research said they
did not think the
company's finance
arm would have to
write down assets
sharply in the near
future. Its shares
closed 6% up at
$7.06.
Despite
the small gains
on Friday, equities
had their worst
week since November
2008 as investors
reacted with disappointment
to policymakers'
latest efforts to
rescue the banking
system. The S&P,
Dow and Nasdaq all
lost between 6 and
7% for the week.
|
| European
Markets
What
has been happening in Europe this
week .....
|
The
Stoxx 600 retreated 1.3% to 159.52,
the lowest since November 1996. The
measure fluctuated between gains and
losses before retreating in the last
90 minutes of trading. An earlier
report showed the American unemployment
rate climbed to 8.1% last month, while
the number of jobs lost was in line
with economists' estimates.
The
Stoxx 600 lost 7.8%
this week as companies
from Danisco A/S to
Bayer AG gave disappointing
forecasts, China quelled
speculation the government
will add to its stimulus
plan and HSBC Holdings
Plc, Europe's biggest
bank, announced the
largest rights offer
by a British company.
GERMANY
German
stocks posted their
fourth straight weekly
drop, sending the
DAX Index to the lowest
level since August
2004, as concern mounted
the global recession
will further depress
earnings.
Metro
AG, Germany's largest
retailer, fell to
a three-month low
and Salzgitter AG,
the country's second
largest steelmaker,
dropped for a second
day. Infineon Technologies
AG, Europe's second-largest
chipmaker, tumbled
13% after Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. said
Japanese electronics
makers need to raise
capital. SAP AG slid
2.7%.
The
benchmark DAX Index
declined 0.8% to 3,666.41,
extending its retreat
this week to 4.6%.
The HDAX Index of
Germany's 110 biggest
companies fell 1%.
Metro
declined 3% to 20.07
Euros, the lowest
since Nov. 20. Salzgitter
dropped 2.8% to 41.32
Euros.
Infineon,
Europe's second-largest
maker of semiconductors,
which generates about
a third of its sales
in the Asia-Pacific
region, slumped 13%
to 41 cents. SAP AG,
the world's largest
maker of business-management
software, retreated
2.7% to 25.005 Euros.
Toshiba
Corp., Elpida Memory
Inc. and Pioneer Corp.
are most in need of
raising capital among
Japanese electronics
makers with deteriorating
financial health,
Goldman said.
Arques
Industries AG surged
7.5% to 1 Euro. The
investment company
said it sold its Rohe
unit and will have
to account for extraordinary
depreciation "in the
low single- digit
range" in its 2008
figures.
SGL
Carbon SE fell 7.1%
to 16.31 Euros. The
world's largest maker
of carbon and graphite
products had its recommendation
cut to "sell" from
"buy" at DZ Bank AG,
which said the company's
outlook may be disappointing.
Takkt
AG plunged 21% to
5.45 Euros, the steepest
slide since its initial
public offering in
1999. The business-to-business
mail-order company
announced it is introducing
shortened shifts for
its workers to help
cut costs after revenue
slumped about 30%
in January and February.
The sales trend is
unlikely to change
in March, Takkt said.
TUI
AG, the travel company
that's selling its
Hapag-Lloyd shipping
line, tumbled 8.2%
to 3.37 Euros on renewed
concern that the deal
may collapse.
FRANCE
France's
CAC 40 Index retreated
35.18, or 1.4%, to
2,534.45 in Paris,
for a 6.2% decline
this week. That's
the index's fourth
straight weekly drop.
The SBF 120 Index
slipped 1.5% Friday.
Financial
shares, the biggest
losers in the CAC
40 Index this week,
extended declines.
Dexia SA, the world's
biggest lender to
local governments,
fell 5.4% to 1.14
Euros, extending this
week's loss to 32%
for the worst performance
in the CAC 40.
Credit
Agricole SA, France's
second-largest bank,
slid 7.7% to 6.11
Euros and is the second-worst
performer in the CAC
40 over the five days
with a 22% drop.
Societe
Generale SA, the country's
third-largest bank
and the CAC 40's third-worst
performing share this
week, sank 6.6% to
19.84 Euros Friday.
BNP
Paribas SA retreated
1.24 Euros, or 5.4%,
to 21.73 Euros. France's
biggest bank and the
Belgian government
are nearing a decision
on a revised deal
for Fortis's operations
in Belgium and Luxembourg,
Finance Minister Didier
Reynders said in a
radio interview before
the start of an inner
cabinet meeting in
Brussels.
Total
SA, Europe's largest
oil refiner, added
42 cents, or 1.2%,
to 35.99 Euros. Crude
oil for April delivery
rose as much as 4.2%
to $45.45 on the New
York Mercantile Exchange.
Veolia
Environnement SA increased
56 cents, or 3.5%,
to 16.51 Euros. The
world's biggest water
company has no plans
for a capital increase
under any circumstances,
Chief Executive Officer
Henri Proglio said.
The company is targeting
asset sales of 3 billion
Euros through 2011
and will cut investment
spending by 44% this
year to boost profitability
after a 56% drop in
2008 profit.
"There's
a significant cost-cutting
plan," said Benoit
de Broissia, an equity
analyst at KBL Richelieu
Gestion in Paris,
which oversees $2
billion. "It's positive
in the short term,
even if it's to the
detriment of long-term
growth."
BELGIUM
In
Brussels the Bel 20
shed 1.6% Friday to
bring the week to
a close at 1,527.27.
Shares
in Fortis surged on
Friday as French bank
BNP Paribas continued
to wrestle with the
Belgian government
over the details of
the break-up of the
troubled Benelux financial
group.
Fortis
was split up by the
Belgian, Dutch and
Luxembourg governments
in October, with BNP
Paribas, France's
largest bank by market
value, purchasing
its Belgian operations.
However Fortis shareholders
later attempted to
shoot the deal down
in a vote.
Anheuser-Busch
InBev NV, the Belgian
brewer that bought
its biggest US rival
last year, may move
its headquarters to
New York and list
shares there to focus
on the world's most
profitable beer market,
analysts said.
AB
InBev said Thursday
it will switch to
reporting in Dollars
from this quarter
to reflect the increased
importance of the
US The acquisition
of Anheuser's Budweiser
and Bud Light, the
two biggest-selling
beers in the US, means
the country now generates
more than 40% of earnings,
the company said.
In
January, the world's
biggest brewer said
it would open a New
York office and move
some managers there
from the town of Leuven
in Belgium, where
the company's roots
date to the 14th century.
THE
NETHERLANDS
In
Amsterdam the AEX
dropped 0.54% to close
at 199.50.
ING
fell a further 6.8%
to €2.44.
Dutch
broker Van der Moolen
Holding said on Friday
that it is scrapping
plans to buy part
of Dutch securities
finance company GSFS
BV for 43.3 million
Euros ($54.7 million)
in cash and shares.
SWITZERLAND
The
SMI in Zurich plunged
1.79% on Friday to
end the week at 4,311.61.
Roche
Holding AG raised
its offer to buy cancer-drug
partner Genentech
Inc. by 7.5% to $45.7
billion after investors
said a higher price
could speed completion
of a 7 1/2-month takeover
battle.
The
Swiss drugmaker is
offering Genentech
shareholders $93 a
share to buy the 44%
of the US biotechnology
company it doesn't
already own. "We talked
to a number of investors
in Genentech and came
to the sentiment that
if we wanted to get
this deal done in
a reasonable amount
of time, we needed
to increase our offer,"
Roche Chairman Franz
Humer said in a telephone
interview Friday.
Genentech
urged shareholders
to take no action
for now on the latest
bid. Roche offered
$89 a share in July,
which Genentech rejected
as too low, before
dropping the price
to $86.50 in January
and taking a hostile
offer directly to
shareholders. Roche's
raised bid is attracting
shareholders who have
been holding out for
a better price.
Roche
extended its offer
until midnight March
20 from March 12,
the company said in
a statement. As of
Thursday, 500,000
shares had been tendered
at the $86.50 price,
according to Humer.
The company wants
full control to ensure
access to Genentech
labs after their partnership
ends in 2015 and to
boost income from
the US company's cancer
drugs.
AUSTRIA
The
ATX in Vienna also
suffered badly on
the day (and the week),
down 1.87% Friday
at 1,419.03.
Shares
in Austrian high-technology
machinery maker Andritz
AG fell Friday, despite
the company reporting
a 3.9% rise in 2008
net profit, after
it said it expects
lower sales and profits
in 2009.
DENMARK
The
OMX Copenhagen 20
finished the week
at 213.11, drops of
2.58% on Friday.
Denmark's
AP Møller-Maersk,
owner of the world's
largest container
shipping line, has
become the latest
company to reveal
the extent of the
crisis facing the
sector, saying volumes
shipped in January
were down 20% on a
year earlier.
The
container volume declines,
together with falling
oil prices and problems
at Danske Bank, of
which Maersk owns
a fifth, prompted
the company to warn
that this year's profits
would be significantly
lower than in 2008.
The charges Maersk
was able to levy per
container shipped
no longer covered
the variable costs
of moving them on
some routes, the company
said.
The
warning came as Maersk
announced 2008 results
and despite significant
profitability improvements
in the container shipping
division, which mainly
consists of Maersk
Line, the industry
leader. The division
has been struggling
since the botched
integration of P&O
Nedlloyd, then the
world number three,
in 2005.
Post-tax
profits at the division
rose to $205m from
$106m on revenue up
to $28.7bn from $25.8bn.
Group net profits
rose to $3.46bn on
$61.2bn in sales,
up from $3.42bn on
$51.2bn of revenue
the previous year.
Nils
Andersen, chief executive,
said the efforts Maersk
had made to improve
profitability - including
redundancies and efficiency
improvements - had
paid off.
However,
he went on: "Needless
to say, with the rates
and the market development
we are facing at this
point in time, it's
very easy to predict
that 2009 will be
a very difficult year."
Maersk
is also likely to
see declining earnings
at its oil and gas
business, which operates
rigs off Denmark,
the UK, Qatar and
elsewhere.
Profits
also slumped at Danske
Bank, Denmark's largest
bank, in which Maersk
holds 20%. Maersk's
share of the profits
fell to $39.3m, against
$2.92bn in 2007. The
group also wrote off
$216m in goodwill
on its stake.
Profits
at the tankers, offshore
and other shipping
operations division
also fell.
Mr
Andersen, who last
year said he planned
significant disposals
of businesses but
has had little success
executing them, said
market conditions
meant the company
was likely to dispose
of few assets this
year.
"In
the present market,
it's not realistic
to calculate on being
able to sell at reasonable
prices this year,"
he said.
The
container shipping
industry is suffering
not only from falling
demand for the goods
- such as Chinese-manufactured
toys - carried in
its ships but also
a significant over-supply
of ships.
SWEDEN
The
OMX Stockholm 30 was
relatively flat, ending
the day down just
0.25% at 607.45.
Swedish
insurance firm Folksam
is set to become the
largest shareholder
in banking group Swedbank,
daily Svenska Dagbladet
said on Friday.
The
newspaper said that
Folksam had demanded
shares in Swedbank
from Swedish savings
bank foundations which
the foundations put
up as security for
a loan.
The
foundations are Swedbank's
largest shareholder.
Shares
in Swedbank have fallen
around 90% over the
last year.
The
vice chairman of the
savings bank foundations'
fund management company,
Ingvar Melin, said
Folksam had not called
in securities on the
loan.
"I
have been in contact
with Folksam's finance
chief who said that
no security has been
called in."
Scandinavian
airline SAS said on
Friday passenger traffic
in February plunged
20.1% from a year
earlier.
NORWAY
The
OBX in Oslo also came
in pretty flat Friday,
dropping a mere 0.09%
to end the week at
179.63.
StatoilHydro
bounced 2.5% to NKr115.70.
Södra
and Norske Skog have
been purchasing wood
for their Norwegian
mills through their
jointly-owned company
WoodLog (Wood and
Logistics AS) since
2000, as Södra informed
Lesprom Network. The
partnership commenced
when Södra acquired
the Tofte and Folla
pulp mills from Norske
Skog.
Södra
owns 28% of the shares
in WoodLog and Norske
Skog owns 72%.
However,
owners' wood requirements
have changed in recent
years with regard
to issues such as
imports, certification
requirements and the
need for different
wood species. Södra
has therefore decided
to leave the purchasing
partnership and establish
its own organisation
for wood procurement
in Norway.
Norske
Skog will take over
Södra's shares in
WoodLog on December
31, 2009. Existing
contracts between
WoodLog and wood suppliers
will be fulfilled
even after Norske
Skog has taken over
the company.
FINLAND
The
OMX Helsinki declined
2.52% Friday, bring
the week to a close
at 4,110.31.
Finnish
paper and packaging
firm M-real Oyj warned
of a deeper-than-expected
first-quarter loss
and dropped further
result forecasts due
to the grim global
economy, sending its
shares down 7%.
"Demand
and delivery volumes
have remained weaker
than estimated and
production curtailments
have continued on
a larger scale than
earlier planned,"
the company said in
a statement on Friday,
adding it had written
down pulp inventories.
The
paper firm said its
operating loss, minus
one-offs, would be
larger than the 51
million Euros ($64.5
million) loss it made
in the fourth quarter.
In December, it had
forecast a smaller
loss in its first
quarter.
M-real
said it would not
give specific result
estimates until further
notice given the exceptionally
challenging economy.
Its
shares were down 7.1%
to 0.26 Euro.
Helsinki-listed
lift and escalators
maker KONE has raised
Eur22.41m in a equity
increase, the company
said on Friday.
KONE
issued 89,640 new
class B shares, which
have all been subscribed
to, and will start
trading on the Helsinki
bourse on 9 March.
The
new shares qualify
for dividend payments
in the current financial
year, KONE said.
KONE
B shares were listed
on the main list of
the Helsinki stock
exchange on 1 June
2005.
SPAIN
The
Ibex in Madrird followed
Regional trends, dropping
1.27% to end the week
at 6,936.90.
Inditex
SA, the Spanish owner
of the Zara chain,
slid the most in five
years in Madrid trading
after the retailer
told analysts their
sales and profit estimates
are too high.
The
retailer spoke with
brokerages Thursday,
according to two analysts
who held discussions
with the Arteixo,
Spain-based retailer.
They asked not to
be identified, saying
the conversations
were informal and
private. Spokesman
Jesus Echevarria said
Inditex wouldn't comment.
Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. removed
Inditex from its list
of "conviction buy"
stocks Friday, saying
the analysts' comments
could be "concerning
to the market." Spain's
shrinking economy
and rising unemployment
has led retailers
to step up discounts.
El Corte Ingles, Spain's
largest retailer,
was advertising discounts
of 50% on some fashions
last week.
PORTUGAL
The
PSI General in Lisbon
chalked up one of
the rare gains on
Friday, up 0.9% at
1,941.19.
Galp
Energia was up 0.8%
to €8.47.
ITALY
Italy's
benchmark S&P/MIB
Index sank to a record
low, led by bank stocks
amid concern an economic
slowdown at home and
in eastern Europe
will weigh on earnings.
The
S&P/MIB fell 4.6%
to 12,895 in Milan,
having earlier declined
as much as 5%, slipping
below 13,000 for the
first time. The measure
dropped 16% this week,
the most since October.
This
year will be "more
difficult" for the
economy than 2008
because global growth
will be affected by
the credit crunch
and bank failures,
Italian Finance Minister
Giulio Tremonti said
Thursday.
Intesa
Sanpaolo SpA, Italy's
second-biggest bank
by assets, dropped
7.4% to 1.45 Euros,
after losing as much
as 17%. "Considering
the downward-spiraling
economic outlook,
we could accept the
risk to the downside
for earnings" at Intesa,
Mediobanca Securities
analysts wrote in
a note. "However,
we believe that Intesa
does not need any
capital increase."
The shares slumped
9.1% to 1.43 Euros.
UniCredit
SpA, the country's
biggest, declined
11% to 72.35 cents.
UBS
AG cut its price estimate
for Unicredit to 96
cents from 1.85 Euros.
The brokerage, which
reiterated a "neutral"
recommendation, cited
"a tougher macro scenario"
and wrote "capital
concerns continue
to weigh on the stock."
Unione
di Banche Italiane
SCPA fell 8% to 6.31
Euros. Italy's fourth-biggest
bank by branches had
its price projection
lowered to 6.4 Euros
from 9 Euros at Deutsche
Bank AG. The brokerage
kept a "sell" recommendation.
Credit
defaults swaps that
hedge against losses
on Italian government
bonds rose 4.5 basis
points to a record
201, according to
CMA Datavision.
JPMorgan
Chase & Co. said it
asked Italy's securities
market watchdog Consob
to investigate a rumor
related to the stability
of the country's finances.
The
firm also disputes
it's marketing a product
which implies a negative
view on the country's
sovereign debt, JPMorgan
said in an e-mailed
statement Friday.
Assicurazioni
Generali SpA declined
65 cents, or 5.9%,
to 10.43 Euros, the
lowest in more than
16 years. Italy's
biggest insurer was
downgraded to "neutral"
from "add" at WestLB
AG.
Azimut
Holding SpA dropped
25.75 cents, or 7.1%,
to 3.39 Euros, dropping
for a second day.
The fund manager said
2009 inflows totaled
44 million Euros,
and net inflows into
funds in February
were 3 million Euros.
Banca
Italease SpA dropped
for the first time
in three days, losing
9 cents, or 7%, to
1.19 Euros. Cheuvreux
halved its price estimate
on the Italian leasing
company to 1 Euro.
Banco
Popolare SC, Italease's
main shareholder,
dropped 19.75 cents,
or 8.7%, to 2.08 Euros.
Lottomatica
SpA added 85 cents,
or 6.7%, to 13.52
Euros. The manager
of Italy's national
lottery said that
it had a fourth-quarter
2008 net loss of 12.7
million Euros compared
with net income of
15.9 million Euros
during the same period
a year earlier.
Goldman
Sachs Group Inc.,
which has a "buy"
recommendation on
the stock, said 2008
results were "good."
Deutsche Bank kept
the same recommendation,
noting results are
coupled with an "encouraging
outlook."
Mediaset
SpA dropped 14.25
cents, or 4.2%, to
3.26 Euros, the lowest
since the company
went public in 1996.
Exane initiated coverage
of the broadcaster
controlled by Berlusconi
with an "underperform"
recommendation and
a price estimate of
2.7 Euros.
Bank
of America Corp. added
the stock to its "least
preferred" stocks
in the European media
industry.
Pirelli
& C. Real Estate retreated
17.25 cents, or 8.3%,
to 1.9 Euros, a fourth
day of losses this
week. The company
lost 195 million Euros
last year compared
with a net profit
of 151 million Euros
in 2007.
GREECE
In
Athens the Athex gave
up 0.48% to close
the week at 1,474.35.
|
| The
UK Market
Did it
follow the Global trend .....
|
Most
UK stocks dropped as a surge in US
unemployment added to concern the
global economy is deteriorating, offsetting
better-than-expected sales at WPP
Plc.
Wolseley
Plc led declining
stocks as the
world's biggest
distributor of
heating and plumbing
gear said it plans
a share sale.
BT Group Plc,
the UK's largest
phone company,
fell 11% as Morgan
Stanley advised
clients to sell
the shares. WPP,
the largest advertising
company, climbed
4.2%.
The
benchmark FTSE
100 Index added
0.87, or less
than 0.1%, to
3,530.73 in London,
as 66 stocks fell
and 36 advanced.
The gauge had
its fourth straight
weekly drop amid
concern financial
firms will post
further losses
and the economy
will worsen.
Wolseley
plunged 15% to
140.4 pence after
saying it plans
to raise 1 billion
Pounds ($1.42
billion) in a
share sale and
exit its US-based
Stock Building
Supply unit.
WPP
added 4.2% to
390 pence. Revenue
advanced 21% to
7.48 billion Pounds
($10.7 billion),
beating the median
analyst estimate
of 7.28 billion
Pounds.
Pension
fund and dividend
concerns send
BT Group to a
record low on
Friday.
The
stock dived after
Morgan Stanley
estimated BT will
have to top up
its fund by at
least £500m a
year.
The
2008 final dividend
could be axed
to fund top-ups,
which would leave
the shares at
a significant
premium to the
sector, it said.
Firms
with pension fund
deficits have
been in focus
this week after
the Bank of England
announced £75bn
of quantitative
easing, driving
down yields on
low-risk investments
such as gilts.
These
rates are used
by actuaries to
discount pension
fund liabilities,
so as yields fall
the deficit rises.
BT
faces a triennial
pension review
in May.
Morgan
Stanley said the
deficit on BT's
£30bn pension
fund deficit could
exceed £8bn, against
£2.3bn reported
at the end of
2008, even without
any changes to
longevity assumptions.
If
the group adopts
similar assumptions
to Royal Mail,
then the deficit
could reach £10bn,
it said.
BT
shares lost 11.2%
to 74.1p, the
lowest level since
its flotation
at 130p in 1984.
Aviva
led the insurance
stocks lower for
a second day Thursday
as spooked investors
looked to price
the sector to
its most conservative
measure, current
cash value.
Aviva
lost 14% to 163.3p
as HSBC downgraded
to "underweight",
Legal & General
fell 6.8% to 24.8p
and Prudential
was down 5.3%
to 209¼p.
Old
Mutual was a relative
outperformer,
closing lower
by 2.2% to 31.8p.
While
talk of disposals
helped, traders
saw Old Mutual
as the sector
outlier because
of its decision
this week to protect
liquidity by cutting
its dividend.
Miners
bounced in tandem
with metals prices,
with ENRC leading
the blue chips
on a 6.9% gain
to 376¼p, while
Rio Tinto was
up 5.3% to £18.25
and Randgold Resources
took on 5.2% to
£34.31.
Bid
speculation continued
to underpin Tullow
Oil, up 3.6% to
735p.
GlaxoSmithKline
was up 0.6% to
£10.22½p amid
speculation that
it would bid for
Aspen Pharmacare,
Africa's biggest
generic drug maker.
The
drugmakers were
sidelined on pipeline
concerns after
the US regulator
said it was applying
new guidelines
in its review
of a diabetes
treatment already
submitted by Takeda,
the Japanese pharmaceuticals
group.
GSK
and AstraZeneca,
down 1.7% to £21.47,
also have diabetes
products awaiting
late-stage review.
Yell
Group was down
12.2% to 16¼p,
Enterprise Inns
lost 15.3% to
43p, Inchcape
was 13.6% weaker
at 36½p and Brixton
fell 17.8% to
18½p.
ITV
dropped 17.1%
to 18¼p, a record
low.
Wellstream
slid 11.3% to
391¼p after NKT,
the Danish pipe
and cablemaker,
said it was struggling
to fill its order
book as demand
from oil companies
had fallen sharply.
Credit
Suisse, Wellstream's
joint house broker,
cut its 2009 profit
forecast 16%.
It also cautioned
that the group
still needs to
secure about £150m
of new orders
to meet the forecast,
the same amount
won intra-year
in last year's
boom market.
Candover
Investments led
the mid-cap risers
after admitting
it was taking
to shareholders
about all options,
including winding
down the business.
The
stock, which has
tumbled from 250p
this week, rallied
14.9% to 125p.
|
| Asia
Pacific Regional Markets
Did
they set the tone or follow the
lead .....
|
JAPAN
Japan's
key stock index dropped
more than 3% to a
four-month closing
low Friday after worries
over the fate of money-losing
General Motors Corp.
and growing pessimism
about the US economy
dragged Wall Street
sharply lower overnight.
The
benchmark Nikkei 225
index tumbled 260.39
points, or 3.5%, to
7,173.10, the lowest
since it closed at
7,162.90 on October
27, 2008. The broader
Topix index fell 2.7%
to 721.39, the lowest
since Dec. 24, 1983
when it finished at
715.68.
Taking
a cue from Wall Street,
investors dumped shares,
and their sentiment
was really downbeat
throughout the day
due to uncertainty
over the fate of GM.
Toyota
Motor Corp., the world's
largest automaker,
fell 2.8% to 2,900
Yen. Honda Motor Co.
lost 4.9% to 2,150
Yen. Nissan Motor
Co. shed 1.2% to 326
Yen.
Sony
Corp. was down 3.8%
at 1,715 Yen, and
Panasonic Corp. declined
2.4% to 1,091 Yen.
HONG
KONG
Hong
Kong shares ended
another poor week
with a loss of almost
2.4% Friday as bank
shares fell heavily
on fresh concerns
over the financial
sector's outlook.
The
blue-chip Hang Seng
Index dipped below
the 12,000-point barrier,
losing 289.72 points
to end the day at
11,921.52.
Turnover
was 46.9 billion Hong
Kong Dollars (6 billion
US Dollars).
Friday's
slide, which saw the
index end the week
almost 900 points
down on its opening
level from Monday,
was led by banking
stocks HSBC along
with the Hang Seng
Bank, Bank of China
Hong Kong and the
Bank of East Asia.
SOUTH
KOREA
The
Kospi traded in line
with regional indices
Friday, dropping 0.3%
on the day.
Foreign
investors sold a net
34.02 billion Won
worth of shares and
local institutions
bought a net 97.7
billion Won worth
on the main board.
Retail investors sold
a net 111.7 billion
Won worth of shares.
Decliners
led advancers by 458
to 354, with 72 titles
ending unchanged.
A
total of 455.1 million
shares worth 3.39
trillion Won changed
hands, compared with
503.75 million shares
worth 4.44 trillion
Won traded on Thursday.
The
KOSPI 200 March futures
index fell 2.20 points
to 136.85 points and
the KOSPI 200 spot
index shed 0.42 points
to 137.83.
The
junior Kosdaq market
gained 0.83% to end
at 365.18 points.
Bukwang
Pharmaceutical Co.,
surged 7.8% after
receiving approval
to sell a hepatitis
drug.
CHINA
Chinese
stocks fell back on
Friday as short-term
speculators took profits
after the market surged
over the previous
two days on hopes
for an early economic
recovery.
The
Shanghai Composite
Index, which had rocketed
7.22% on Wednesday
and Thursday, ended
Friday down 1.26%
at 2,193.007 points,
after hitting a low
of 2,171.668.
Turnover
in Shanghai A shares
shrank to 105.2 billion
Yuan ($15.4 billion)
from Thursday's 154.1
billion Yuan.
Financials
and industrial metals,
which led this week's
rise, bore the brunt
of profit-taking.
Bank of China fell
2.19% to 3.58 Yuan
after soaring 14.38%
in the past two days,
while Aluminum Corp
of China (Chalco)
lost 2.80% to 9.39
Yuan after gaining
9.52%.
Much
of this week's buying
of stocks was short-term
speculation fuelled
by loose monetary
policy and a government-directed
surge in bank lending,
analysts believe.
That could leave the
market vulnerable
to a pull-back if
economic data and
news on government
policies disappoint.
A
senior economic planning
official said on Friday
that the government
needed to wait and
see before deciding
if additional economic
stimulus was needed.
This contradicted
hopes that China might
announce an expansion
of its 4 trillion
Yuan stimulus plan
during the annual
parliament session
ending next week.
But
investors still expect
the government to
expand fiscal spending
later if that seems
necessary, and officials
are continuing to
sound cautiously optimistic
about the economy.
This appears likely
to prevent any extended
market downtrend.
TAIWAN
Taiwan
stocks rose 0.35%
on Friday, hitting
a fresh two-month
closing high, as technology
shares such as TSMC
and Chi Mei jumped
on rising demand from
China's subsidy programmes.
The
main TAIEX share index
ended up 16.43 points
at 4,653.63, marking
its strongest close
since Jan. 7 and extending
a 5% gain over the
previous three sessions.
Shares
of top contract chip
maker TSMC jumped
4.08% and shares of
LCD maker Chi Mei
rose 4.98%.
However,
major DRAM shares
weakened after the
Taiwan government
announced it will
set up a new chip
company to consolidate
the struggling sector.
THE
PHILIPPINES
Philippine
shares fell 0.2% on
Friday as the market
consolidated after
a two-day rally, dealers
said.
The
composite index slipped
4.14 points to 1,920.16
points while the all
shares index fell
by 0.08% to 1,232.87
points.
There
were 17 gainers, 65
losers and 31 unchanged.
Turnover
amounted to 1.198
billion shares worth
P3.744 billion ($76.8
million).
Philippine
Long Distance Telephone
Co. (PLDT) dropped
0.8% to 2,290 while
Ayala Corp. fell 0.5%
to 195.
San
Miguel Corp. saw its
A shares fall 1.11%
to 44.50 while its
B shares gained 1.12%
to 45.
Power
retailer Manila Electric
Co. (Meralco) bucked
the trend and continued
its winning streak,
ending up P14 or 12.5%
at P126.
A
group led by PLDT
top honcho Manuel
V. Pangilinan has
been rumored to be
accumulating shares
in Meralco in preparation
for a likely boardroom
battle.
MALAYSIA
Share
prices on Bursa Malaysia
ended weaker in volatile
trading Friday on
heavy selling in big-capitalised
stocks such as Maybank,
Tenaga Nasional and
TM International,
dealers said.
The
benchmark Kuala Lumpur
Composite Index (KLCI)
fell 11.02 points
to close at 858.22.
It had opened 5.61
points lower at 863.63.
The
KLCI moved between
857.22 and 864.20
throughout the trading
session.
Dealers
said Maybank was the
big loser after it
announced the price
of its rights shares
at RM2.74 each for
its planned RM6 billion
rights offering.
The
issue price marked
a 43% discount to
its closing price
of RM4.82 on Thursday.
Maybank
shares fell 28 sen
or 5.80% to RM4.54
Friday.
The
dealers said investors
were less excited
about the timing and
size of the issue.
Finance
counters also led
the losses on expectations
of more capital-raising
exercises by banks.
The
speculation pressure
on bank stocks saw
Bumiputra-Commerce
fall 15 sen to RM6.05,
Public Bank which
dropped 15 sen to
RM8.00 while Hong
Leong Bank slipped
10 sen to RM5.20.
The
Finance Index also
plunged 159.60 points
to 6,492.06.
The
Industrial Index meanwhile
declined 12.51 points
to 2,058.28, the Plantation
Index lost 15.03 points
to 4,354.91, FBMEmas
fell 77.58 points
to 5,598.44 and the
FBM30 dipped 89.68
points to 5,498.64.
The
FBMMesdaq went down
76.84 points to 3,034.65
while the FBM2BRD
was 8.65 points lower
at 3,943.62.
Losers
thumped gainers by
359 to 120 while 203
counters were unchanged,
562 untraded and 32
others suspended.
Friday's
turnover slipped to
282.249 million shares
worth RM469.575 million
from the 381.649 million
shares valued at RM613.399
million recorded Thursday.
-- MORE According
to dealers, losses
on regional bourses
amid worries over
the global financial
sector, further weighed
on Bursa.
They
said, sentiment also
remained weak, with
most investors staying
sidelined ahead of
the long holiday next
week and the tabling
of the second stimulus
package on March 10.
Bursa
Malaysia would be
closed on March 9
for the Maulidur Rasul
public holiday.It
will reopen on March
10.
At
close of trading Friday,
volume on the Main
Board declined to
238.531 million shares
worth RM461.926 million
from 338.885 million
shares valued at RM604.433
million Thursday.
Turnover
on the Second Board
fell to 17.454 million
shares valued at RM4.223
million from 23.693
million shares worth
RM6.282 million previously.
However,
volume on the Mesdaq
Market increased to
12.374 million shares
worth RM2.245 million
from 6.972 million
shares valued at RM1.640
million Thursday.
Warrants
rose to 12.447 million
shares valued at RM757,511
from Thursday's close
of 10.830 million
shares worth RM697,390.
Among
the volume leaders,
Compugates and KNM
Group were flat at
17.5 sen and 36.5
sen respectively while
Resorts World lost
six sen to RM2.01.
As
for the blue chips,
Sime Darby increased
five sen to RM5.50
and IOI Corp eased
two sen to RM3.72.
Tenaga
Nasional dropped 15
sen to RM6.10 on concerns
that the company's
earnings would be
affected by a reduction
in electricity tariffs.
SINGAPORE
Singapore's
benchmark index STI
turned lower after
a 1% rise on Wednesday,
with the region's
biggest bank, DBS,
extending its fall
for a fifth day, down
2.1%, and Oversea-Chinese
Banking Corp dropping
3%.
Investors
in Singapore were
more concerned about
the local economy
facing its worst recession
ever, analysts said.
Financials
in Singapore are actually
reeling from two things.
One is about the continuing
domestic slowdown
and, secondly, exposure
to other Asian countries.
United
Overseas Bank, the
second biggest lender,
fell 0.6% while, among
China plays, Singapore-listed
Chinese developer
Yanlord Land dropped
6%. It jumped 17.1%
on Wednesday on hopes
for measures to support
China's property market.
INDONESIA
Indonesia's
main stock index edged
0.11% lower, with
top listed plantation
company PT Astra Agro
Lestari Tbk tumbling
6.7% and coal miner
PT Tambang Batubara
Bukit Asam Tbk falling
0.7%.
Stockholders
of PT Apexindo Pratama
Duta a drilling company
under PT Mitra Rajasa
approved the company's
stocks removal from
the Indonesian bourse,
as the bourse authority
found a significant
revenue dependance
of the parent company
on its subsidary.
In
a stockholders meeting
on Thursday evening
(5/3) stockholders
approved a voluntary
delisting as the bourse
regulations bar two
companies with significant
revenue dependance
to trade in the Indonesia
Stock Exchange, and
required one among
the company to pull
its shares from trade.
THAILAND
Thailand
moved narrowly, ending
up 0.58%, buoyed by
dividend plays in
banking stocks and
buying of some battered
energy firms.
State-run
Krung Thai Bank, the
country's second largest
lender, was among
gainers, rising nearly
2% to a one-week high,
while number three
Siam Commercial Bank
edged up 1.8%.
Energy
shares led losers,
with PTT down 3.3%,
ex-dividend, and Thai
Oil off 2.9%. But
banks outpaced the
broader market, with
Siam Commercial Bank
rising 3.8% and Bangkok
Bank adding 3.5%.
INDIA
Markets
ended on a strong
note. IT stocks which
rose over 3% gained
the most. Shares of
Satyam Computer Services
rose on reports of
company receiving
Securities and Exchange
Board of India (SEBI)
approval to facilitate
a global competitive
bidding process subject
to receipt of all
approvals, contemplates.
Shares of the company
rose over 19% to close
at day`s high of Rs
42.10.
Major
movers in the sectoral
gainers included BSE
Oil&Gas (1.76%), Capital
Goods (1.54%), Power
(1.34%) and Metal
(1.32%). Meanwhile,
BSE FMCG (1.73%),
Realty (0.89%) and
Auto were draggers
in the 30-share index.
BSE
Midcap and Smallcaps
ends down 0.65%
and 0.83% respectively.
Shares
of Satyam Computer
Services rose on reports
of company receiving
Securities and Exchange
Board of India (SEBI)
approval to facilitate
a global competitive
bidding process subject
to receipt of all
approvals, contemplates.
Shares of the company
rose over 19% to close
at day`s high of Rs
42.10.
Major
movers in the sectoral
gainers included BSE
Oil&Gas (1.76%), Capital
Goods (1.54%), Power
(1.34%) and Metal
(1.32%). Meanwhile,
BSE FMCG (1.73%),
Realty (0.89%) and
Auto were draggers
in the 30-share index.
BSE
Midcap and Smallcaps
however closed on
a negative note down
by 0.65% and 0.83%
respectively.
The
Sensex ended the day
with a gain of 127.90
points, or 1.56% at
8,325.82 after touching
a high of 8,347.74
and a low of 8,047.17.
The broad-based NSE
Nifty gained 43.45
points, or 1.69% at
2,620.15 after hitting
a high of 2,628.10
and a low of 2,539.45.
Biggest
gainers in the 30-share
index were Housing
Development Finance
Corporation (6.40%),
Hindalco Industries
(4.38%), Jaiprakash
Associates (4.27%),
Tata Consultancy Services
(3.84%), Wipro (3.37%),
and Oil & Natural
Gas Corporation (3.31%).
On
the other hand, Maruti
Suzuki India (2.77%),
Hindustan Unilever
(2.65%), Ranbaxy Laboratories
(2.15%), ITC (1.61%),
and DLF (1.12%) were
the biggest losers
in the Sensex.
Overall
market breadth was
negative. Out of the
total 2,500 shares
traded at BSE, 993
advanced, 1,419 declined
while 88 remained
unchanged.
AUSTRALIA
The
Australian sharemarket
has reversed Thursday's
gains, slumping after
falls in New York
and Europe overnight.
The
All Ordinaries index
closed down 1.2% to
3,112 points and the
ASX 200 lost 43 points
to 3,146.
The
Bank of Queensland
is cutting about 150
jobs, or about 10%
of its workforce,
by the end of the
month in response
to the financial crisis.
Its
shares closed 2% lower
at $6.44.
BHP
Billiton closed down
2.3% lower at $27.65.
Meanwhile,
the corporate regulator
ASIC has secured a
proposed settlement
over the Opes Prime
collapse.
Under
the proposal, the
former stockbroker's
lenders, ANZ and Merrill
Lynch, would pool
funds with Opes Prime's
remaining cash and
assets to deliver
$253 million to investors.
ASIC
says that represents
40 cents in the Dollar
on the value of creditors'
claims in March last
year, when Opes went
into administration.
ASIC
has also agreed not
to pursue two lawsuits
against ANZ and Merrill
Lynch if the proposal
is approved by the
courts and Opes creditors.
ANZ
closed 2.3% lower
at $12.36.
NEW
ZEALAND
The
New Zealand share
market tumbled Friday,
but avoided the carnage
experienced on Wall
Street.
As
usual the movement
in the New Zealand
market was in the
same direction but
not as extreme.
The
benchmark NZX-50 index
closed down 20.361
points, or 0.817%,
at 2471.040, following
gains of 22 points
and 51 points in the
previous two days.
Turnover
was $70.48 million.
There were 23 rises
and 63 falls among
the 122 stocks traded.
Rakon
rose 12c to 97 and
when queried by NZX
had no material events
to disclose.
Among
leading stocks Telecom
was down 7c to 239,
Fletcher Building
slipped 12c to 515,
and Contact Energy
rose 4c to 555.
Kiwi
Income Property Trust
was unchanged at 101
after announcing the
sale of a building
for $12 million to
help reduce debt.
TrustPower
fell 10c to 715. APN
News fell 10c to 120.
Mainfreight
lost 10c to 330 and
Tourism Holdings was
down 7c to 47. Sky
City fell 7c to 256.
ANZ rose 85c to 1700
and it announced a
rise in underlying
profit in in the depths
of a downturn in New
Zealand in the three
months to December.
Fisher
& Paykel Healthcare
rose 5c to 338.
|
| Global
Commodities
'Food
for thought' or 'a
Grain of truth' .....
|
Gold
futures rose for the second straight
day on demand for the precious metal
as an alternative to stocks and government
bonds. Silver also gained.
US
unemployment in February
surged to 8.1%, the
highest in 25 years.
Global equities headed
for the fourth straight
weekly decline. US
Treasuries are down
2.5% this year through
Thursday. Gold has
gained 6.6% in 2009.
Gold
futures for April
delivery rose $14.90,
or 1.6%, to $942.70
an ounce on the Comex
division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange.
Thursday, the price
climbed 2.3%, halting
an eight-session slide.
The metal was little
changed this week.
Silver
futures for May delivery
climbed 21.3 cents,
or 1.6%, to $13.333
an ounce. The metal
rose 1.7% this week.
Crude
oil rose to a five-week
high as the US Dollar
weakened against the
Euro, bolstering the
appeal of commodities
as an alternative
investment.
Oil
climbed 4.4% and the
Dollar weakened versus
the Euro after unemployment
advanced to the highest
in 25 years in the
US, the world's biggest
energy user. The Organization
of Petroleum Exporting
Countries will consider
a fourth production
cut when ministers
meet on March 15.
Crude
oil for April delivery
rose $1.91 to $45.52
a barrel at 2:57 p.m.
on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, the highest
settlement since Jan.
26. Prices climbed
1.7% this week and
are up 2.1% so far
this year.
Gasoline
futures for April
delivery increased
1.95 cents, or 1.5%,
to end the session
at $1.3322 a gallon
in New York. Heating
oil for April delivery
climbed 6.96 cents,
or 6%, to settle at
$1.2294, the biggest
gain since Jan. 23.
Copper
prices rose, capping
the second straight
weekly gain, on renewed
optimism that demand
will climb in China,
the world's biggest
metal user.
Zhou
Xiaochuan, the head
of China's central
bank, pledged fast
and forceful policies
to restore confidence
and said he saw "signs
of stabilization and
recovery" in the world's
third- biggest economy.
Copper jumped 9.8%
this week on speculation
that government spending
will help boost economic
expansion in China
and spur metal demand.
Copper
futures for May delivery
rose 3.55 cents, or
2.1%, to $1.689 a
Pound on the Comex
division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange,
The metal gained 7.4%
last week and is up
20% this year.
China
is ready to buy copper
and other industrial
metals for reserves,
Reuters reported,
citing government-owned
trading company China
Minmetals Corp. The
country's refined-copper
imports may reach
2 million metric tons
this year as the State
Reserve Bureau adds
to inventories, Macquarie
Group Ltd. forecast
this week. That was
up from 1.4 million
tons last year, the
bank said.
Soybeans
rose for the third
time in four days
and corn gained for
the second straight
week on signs that
demand for commodities
will rebound.
The
Baltic Dry Index,
a measure of commodity
shipping costs, increased
for the sixth straight
session to the highest
in more than four
months as China increases
raw-material reserves.
Soybean
futures for May delivery
rose 15 cents, or
1.8%, to $8.67 a bushel
on the Chicago Board
of Trade. Still, futures
fell 0.6% this week,
the third decline
in four weeks. The
most-active contract
has slumped 47% from
an all-time high of
$16.3675 on July 3.
Corn
futures for May delivery
rose 3 cents, or 0.8%,
to $3.615 a bushel
in Chicago. The price
gained 0.7% for the
week, the second increase
after seven straight
declines. Corn still
has dropped 55% from
a record $7.9925 on
June 27.
|
| Global
Currencies
In
for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
|
The
Dollar rose to a three-year high this
week as renewed weakness on equity
markets and more evidence of a sharp
slowdown in the global economy drove
investors to the haven of the US currency.
The
Dollar index, which
tracks its progress
against a basket of
six major currencies,
rose to a high of
89.624 on Wednesday,
its strongest level
since April 2006.
But
after hitting a four-month
high of $1.2455 against
the Euro on Wednesday
and Y99.67 against
the Japanese Yen on
Thursday, the Dollar
went into retreat
on Friday as data
showed the US unemployment
rate rising to its
highest level in 25
years last month.
Over
the week the Dollar
fell 0.2% to $1.2656
against the Euro,
lost 1.5% to SFr1.1533
against the Swiss
Franc and eased 0.1%
to Y97.65 against
the Yen.
The
Euro suffered on Thursday
after the European
Central Bank cut Eurozone
interest rates by
50 basis points to
1.5% and Jean-Claude
Trichet, ECB president,
struck a dovish tone,
warning that the region
faced a sharp slowdown
and inflationary pressures
had eased.
The
Euro recovered some
ground on Friday to
stand up 0.2% at Y123.60
against the Yen on
the week, but lost
1.3% to SFr1.4594
against the Swiss
Franc.
Sterling
lost ground as the
Bank of England cut
UK interest rates
by 50bp to a record
low of 0.5% and revealed
details of its plans
to initiate quantitative
easing to boost the
British economy.
Over
the week, the Pound
fell 1.2% to £0.8940
against the Euro and
lost 0.9% to $1.4154
against the Dollar.
Meanwhile,
the Swedish Krona
fell to a fresh record
low against the Euro
as fears over the
extent of Swedish
banks' exposure to
problems in the Baltic
states intensified.
The
Krona dropped 2% to
SKr11.6715 against
the Euro on the week
and fell 1.7% to SKr9.2207
against the Dollar.
The
South African Rand
was bid at 10.5788
to the Dollar from
an overnight close
of 10.6344. It was
bid at 13.4019 to
the Euro from a previous
13.3422 and at 15.0230
against Sterling from
15.0230 before.
As
always, closing out
currencies with the
RMB. The RMB appreciated
vis-à-vis the US Dollar
as the greenback closed
at CNY 6.8395 in the
over-the-counter market,
down from CNY 6.8409.
|
| China
Key
news eminating from China this week
.....
|
Chinese
central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan
pledged "fast and heavy-handed"
policies to restore confidence and
prevent the global financial crisis
from deepening the nation's economic
slump.
"If
we act slowly and
less decisively,
we're likely to
see what happened
in other countries:
a slide in confidence,"
Zhou said at briefing
in Beijing. The
central bank has
"ample room" to
fine-tune monetary
policy after a record
surge in lending
in January, he said.
The
central banker said
he saw "signs of
stabilization and
recovery" in the
world's third-biggest
economy, echoing
Premier Wen Jiabao's
confidence that
the nation's 8%
growth target for
2009 remains within
reach. Collapsing
exports because
of the global recession
have dragged growth
to the weakest pace
in seven years and
cost the jobs of
20 million migrant
workers.
Premier
Wen restated the
8% target in an
annual speech to
China's parliament
Thursday, the equivalent
of a US State of
the Union address.
"We
would rather be
faster and heavy-handed
if it can prevent
confidence slumping
during the financial
crisis," Zhou said
Friday.
China's
confidence contrasts
with US Treasury
Secretary Timothy
Geithner's warning
Thursday that his
nation's recession
is deepening as
it starts a $787
billion stimulus
program of public
works.
China's
official manufacturing
index rose for a
third month in February,
from a record low
in November. Wen
has also cited growth
in power output
and consumption,
loans and retail
sales as positive
signs.
Chinese
banks doled out
a record 1.62 trillion
Yuan ($237 billion)
of loans in January
and more than 800
billion Yuan last
month, Liu Mingkang,
chairman of the
China Banking Regulatory
Commission, said
in Beijing Thursday.
The regulator plans
to conduct spot
checks of bank loan
books to "ensure
quality of growth,"
Liu said.
Loans
and money supply
may have grown too
quickly, Zhou said,
after China cut
interest rates,
scrapped quotas
limiting lending
and pressed banks
to support a 4 trillion
Yuan stimulus package.
The jump in lending
exceeded the central
bank's expectations,
he said.
The
government will
study the results
of its existing
stimulus package
before deciding
whether to take
any new measures,
Zhang Ping, head
of the National
Development and
Reform Commission,
said in Beijing
Friday.
The
People's Bank of
China cut interest
rates five times
in the final four
months of last year,
including the biggest
single reduction
since the 1997-98
Asian financial
crisis, leaving
the benchmark one-year
lending rate at
5.31%. There have
been no cuts in
2009.
China
needs "stable and
relatively fast
growth" to create
jobs, boost incomes
and ensure social
stability, Premier
Wen said Thursday.
Not
everyone is convinced
that China will
meet its 8% goal.
The
6.8% gain in the
fourth quarter was
down from 9% for
all of 2008 and
13% for 2007. The
International Monetary
Fund forecasts the
economy will grow
6.7% in 2009, the
least in almost
two decades.
China's
exports may have
fallen 20% in February
from a year earlier,
the 21st Century
Business Herald
newspaper reported
Friday, citing an
unidentified trade
official. Imports
may have also fallen
20% last month,
it said.
The
nation's trade surplus
for February may
be $7 billion, the
newspaper reported.
That would be less
than a fifth of
the size of January's
surplus.
***************************************
Bank
of China Ltd. plans
to sell as much
as 120 billion Yuan
($17.5 billion)
of subordinated
bonds over the next
four years, the
most among Chinese
lenders, as it offers
more credit to support
an economic stimulus
plan.
China's
third-largest bank
by value will seek
shareholder approval
on March 23 to sell
bonds with maturities
of at least five
years, the Beijing-based
bank said in a statement
Friday.
China's
financial institutions
have sold 84.8 billion
Yuan of bonds in
the first two months
of this year to
bolster capital
as the government
pushes them to support
economic growth.
Domestic banks,
among the strongest
after dodging the
fallout of the US
subprime-mortgage
market's meltdown,
now risk an increase
in bad loans.
Loan
defaults are the
single biggest threat
to Chinese banks,
which face "a choppy
2009" because bad
debts may swell
after the economy
slowed to 6.8% in
the fourth quarter,
the weakest pace
in seven years,
Fitch Ratings said
in January.
Chinese
Premier Wen Jiabao
Thursday set a new
loan growth target
of 5 trillion Yuan
for 2009 in his
speech to the nation's
parliament while
avoiding boosting
the government's
4 trillion Yuan
stimulus package.
China needs to "reverse
the economic slide
as soon as possible,"
he said.
Bank
of China's capital
adequacy ratio stood
at 13.78% as of
June 30. President
Li Lihui said Thursday
the bank increased
lending "relatively
fast" in the first
two months, without
giving more details.
That compares with
a ratio of 14.9%
at Standard Chartered
Plc, which raised
1.8 billion Pounds
from a rights offer
in December.
Chinese
banks are also raising
capital to take
advantage of lower
interest costs after
the central bank
cut rates five times
since September.
China
Construction Bank
Corp., the nation's
second largest,
last month raised
40 billion Yuan
in the biggest bond
sale in the Asia-Pacific
region this year.
The bank, which
sold debt at the
lower end of the
coupon ranges, plans
to sell 80 billion
Yuan of subordinated
bonds over the coming
two years.
Industrial
& Commercial Bank
of China Ltd., the
country's largest,
said in August it
may sell as much
as 100 billion Yuan
of bonds after domestic
loan growth and
acquisitions overseas
drained capital.
ICBC advanced 338
billion Yuan of
new loans in the
first two months
of 2009, almost
two-thirds of the
bank's lending target
for the full year,
President Yang Kaisheng
said Thursday.
Subordinated
bonds are counted
as supplementary,
or lower- Tier 2
capital. In the
event of bankruptcy,
holders of subordinated
notes receive payment
only after other
debt claims are
paid in full.
***************************************
A
general, said Sun
Tzu, "must be able
to mystify his officers
and men by false
reports and appearances"
to ensure secrecy.
Chinese officials
applied their Art
of War this week:
global financial
markets were left
mystified when Prime
Minister Wen Jiabao's
speech to the National
People's Congress
contained no sign
whatsoever of the
stimulus package
it had been suggested
he would announce.
That was unfortunate,
both for what it
says about China's
anti-crisis policies
and about its approach
to communication.
In
this downturn, China
is relatively enviably
placed. Many other
countries face the
paradox of having
to sustain deficit
spending right now
but save more over
time. For China,
the right policy
Friday - compensating
for lost exports
by boosting domestic
spending - is also
a sound policy for
tomorrow: moving
towards a permanently
higher share for
consumption in national
output. That is
a rare luxury, which
will serve not only
the Chinese people.
As they become bigger
consumers, they
will also benefit
the rest of the
world through increased
imports.
So
what is China waiting
for? With some $2,000bn
in reserves - the
result of years
of accumulated trade
surpluses - it has
no difficulty financing
public deficits
to boost domestic
demand. The government
has already taken
some useful steps.
It has put in place
a subsidy programme
for rural residents
that encourages
them to buy household
appliances and consumer
electronics. It
has also successfully
expanded domestic
lending through
its state-owned
banks.
But
other actions have
been half-hearted.
A Rmb4,000bn investment
plan was announced
last year, but it
is not clear that
it contains much
spending above what
would in any case
have taken place.
A more reliable
measurement of stimulus
is the budget deficit
the government plans
to run next year,
which Mr Wen said
would be 3% of China's
economy. That is
something - but
it seems too unambitious
to achieve Mr Wen's
stated goal of 8%
growth in 2009 when
exports are falling
by 17.5% year-on-year.
A
convincing stimulus
package from Beijing
is the single most
promising opportunity
to reinvigorate
economic activity
in China and around
the world. This
was illustrated
by the sharp bounce
Asian markets enjoyed
from expectations
that Mr Wen would
announce such a
package. The market
reaction revealed
the deeper challenge
confronting China's
leaders. They understand
that they must act
to slow the global
downturn - and indeed
that they have more
power than anyone
else to do so. But
they have not yet
grasped that inspiring
certainty and market
confidence is an
important part of
that task.
Cash
is being hoarded
everywhere by savers
too afraid to lend
and consumers too
afraid to spend.
Ending the crisis
requires lifting
their uncertainty.
Governments' plans
must therefore be
clear and resolute
- but clarity is
something China's
Communist party
still struggles
with (not just in
economics).
The
time has passed
when China's opacity
mostly caused trouble
for itself. Friday
the whole world
needs it to put
some of Sun Tzu's
lessons aside.
***************************************
Jaguar
Land Rover has won
a £600m order to
supply 13,000 vehicles
to China, in a rare
piece of good news
for the beleaguered
automotive industry.
The
luxury carmaker,
which is owned by
Tata of India has
been seeking loans
or loan guarantees
thought to exceed
£500m ($714m) from
the government,
so far without success.
The company has
been hit by a sharp
fall in sales as
a result of the
world recession.
The
government has urged
the company to get
support from its
Indian parent.
The
large Chinese order
was unveiled on
Friday at a meeting
in London between
Lord Mandelson,
business secretary,
and Chen Deming,
Chinese commerce
minister. They announced
a trade package
which also included
an £800m order for
Rolls-Royce to supply
aircraft engines
to Hong Kong Airlines.
The
Chinese business
SCAS Investment
Group has signed
a memorandum of
understanding to
buy 10,000 Land
Rovers and 3,000
Jaguars over three
years.
JLR
said: "This shows
an immediate commitment
in us from them
and gives us a solid
base to build up
our business in
China. The initiative
came from the Chinese
government, which
pulled together
this trade package."
Most
of the vehicles
will be sold to
private individuals
by dealerships across
China. JLR has found
an enthusiastic
market for its products
in China's fledgling
entreprenEurial
elite. The company
said: "This has
been a fast-growing
market for us, becoming
our fifth biggest
in three years,
starting from almost
nothing."
JLR
sold about 13,000
vehicles in China
last year, so the
order would not
be remarkable outside
a time of recession.
What is probably
more important is
the assumption of
the Chinese that
the company will
still be in business
in three years'
time.
Lord
Mandelson said in
a speech that the
UK should be able
to meet its goal
of increasing exports
to China to £10bn
a year by 2010 even
in a recession.
The UK is the largest
European investor
in China.
Mr
Chen said: "We clearly
see we should make
our import-export
trade more balanced.
Only by working
together can countries
work out of this
economic low."
According
to some economists,
recovery from world
recession will require
emerging economies
such as China to
sharply reduce their
exports of manufactured
goods and developed
countries such as
the UK to significantly
increase theirs.
|
| Summary
The
coming week looks like .....
|
What
a busy week ahead we
have the Asiapac' Region
and whilst Europe and
the US are rather quiet,
I cannot say that this
looks awe-inspiring
at all because the focus
will turn away from
economic data to a certain
extent and focus on
sector specifics - such
as banking and automakers
- and I see nothing
'positive' in both.
Markets
will be watching Australian
unemployment figures
next week, as well
as the Reserve Bank
of New Zealand's interest
rate decision. In
Japan, the Statistics
Bureau will release
final figures for
fourth quarter GDP.
Economists
expect Australia's
unemployment rate
to rise to 5.0% in
February from 4.8%,
and forecast a loss
of 20,000 jobs in
the month. While the
unemployment rate
has started to rise,
the increase has been
much more moderate
than in other industrialized
economies. But there's
no escape in Australia
I feel, the unemployment
rate will climb amid
the economic slowdown.
In
New Zealand, the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand
(RBNZ) is set to release
its cash rate. The
RBNZ cut by 150 basis
points at each of
its last two meetings,
and economists say
the pace of rate cuts
could slow down at
the coming meeting.
Economists
expect a 75 basis
point cut to 2.75%
and I go along with
that.
Economists
at Westpac are calling
for a sharper 100
basis point cut. However,
with the Reserve Bank
of Australia decision
last week to keep
rate unchanged, it
has placed "a cat
amongst the pigeons,"
they noted.
In
Japan, the Statistics
Bureau will release
final fourth quarter
GDP figures. Economists
expect the preliminary
3.3% decline in GDP
to be downwardly revised
to a 3.5% drop.
The
upcoming week looks
to be a quiet one
in Europe, with German
industrial orders
and UK industrial
production the main
attention-getters.
The
German Economy Ministry
will release industrial
orders next Wednesday
Economists
expect German industrial
production to fall
by an additional 3.0%
month over month in
January, after dropping
4.6% to end off 2008.
For the 12 months
to January, economists
expect output in the
industrial sector
declined 15.5%, down
3.5 percentage points
from December's annual
fall.
In
the UK economists
expect industrial
production lost ground
in January, and has
penciled in a 1.5%
decline for the industrial
sector, as well as
a 1.5% fall in manufacturing.
Ahead
of the Office for
National Statistics
(ONS)'s data release,
economists are expecting
UK industrial output
to have slipped 1.2%
between December and
January, after declining
1.7% previously. Year-over-year,
industrial output
is expected to fall
9.9% in January, down
from December's 9.4%
contraction.
A
quiet week for US
economic data as I
mentioned. In Canada,
the employment report
will provide guidance
to domestic markets.
The
financial sector continues
to drag US equity
markets lower, and
according to some
market strategists,
investors will be
looking to the US
government for more
guidance on the banking
sector.
The
most important data
this week appears
to be US retail sales,
but markets are already
preparing for a weak
report. January's
sales surprised to
the upside, but I'm
not expecting that
trend to last.
In
Canada, markets will
focus on the employment
report, which is expected
to show more sharp
deterioration in the
labour market.
Although
the employment data
will impact the Canadian
Dollar, markets will
remain sensitive to
global and US trends.
If
overall risk appetite
is on the rise ahead
of the report, it
will be supportive
of the Canadian Dollar.
If that is the case,
traders might ignore
the domestic data
and continue following
the trend.
Other
than that, another
week of 'holding your
breath' and hoping
that we don't see
any 'skeletons' coming
out of any banking
closets!
I'll
close this week with
yet another thought
for the weekend; if
UBS downgrades a company
to 'sell'; if Citibank
downgrades a sector
to 'hold' and if Credit
Suisse comes out with
a recommendation to
'buy' - given the
mess all three are
in currently, is this
not a pure and simple
case of "The Blind
Leading The Blind"?
|
As
always, I will keep you posted with
major developments as/when they
occur in the week ahead.
In
the meantime, I wish you all a very
pleasant weekend.
Market
Newsletter Written By
Adrian
Page
Managing
Director
Financial
Page International
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