Financial Page International

7 March 2009 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,

I have been asked if I could increase the size of the fonts in my Newsletter, as some people are finding it difficult to read the smaller letters. So my apologies if the layout of this Newsletter has changed a little.
 
Okay, here's the current position.

Forget 200 day averages; forget what used to happen to Bonds when stocks went down; forget Gold's correlation to the US Dollar and stockmarkets.

In fact, forget pretty much everything that used to set a precedent because in truth, nothing is following patterns that can be considered 'The Norm'.

We've got currencies going haywire, stockmarkets diving all over the world and a seemingly unstoppable downward momentum in both the Banking Sector and of course the Carmakers.

So look around Ladies & Gentlemen, what can you see that can in any way be used to cast a 'positive' spin on the current global financial crisis?

Nothing; absolutely nothing and it has to get even worse than this before it gets better I'm afraid.

Global markets shed 8-10% this week and if GM does not make it (which looks increasingly to be the case) then we can look at further declines of 10% or more.

To bring the current crisis into perspective, how about this for a 'banking' scoop; Malaysia's very own Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Bhd has overtaken Citigroup Inc., the US bank that was once the world's biggest bank, by market value.

Citigroup fell as low as 97 cents in New York Stock Exchange composite trading before closing at US$1.02, marking an 85% decline this year and giving the New York-based company a market value of US$5.7 billion.

Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Bhd's market capitalisation as of Friday is RM22.2 billion while its assets are valued at RM210 billion.

The market capitalisation of two other top banks in the country, Public Bank and Maybank, is at RM28.79 billion and RM23.53 billion respectively.

So a Malaysian Bank is bigger than Citibank; and it does not stop there.

Japan's Carmakers, whilst in a rut of their own, lead the US 'giants' in market share and cash in the bank. 

Oh how the mighty appear to have fallen.

Even China this week struggled to buoy markets, with the finance minister and premier both stating 'fast and heavy-hitting' stimulus packages that lifted markets in China to huge midweek gains; but by the end of the week, markets tailed off again as apart from 'talking about' a stimulus package, nothing further came from the comments.

Interest rates in Europe and the UK dropped by another half base points and pretty soon, the Governments might end up paying us to borrow money - now there's a thought!

But seriously, it is impossible for anyone to gauge what will happen next because from Obama to Brown, Trichet to Wen Jia Bao, it appears that whilst they are all awash with ideas, there is very little happening.

The reason for this is simple; at no point in history are there any similar examples, any comparisons or case-studies that even closely resemble the current global problem and so to a country, no-one seems to know what to do next in order to solve the crisis.

Even those blessed with a talent for reading Crystal Balls are now losing their jobs. It's all gone 'cloudy'.

Whichever way things go though, as mentioned in a Newsletter late last year - if China does things right, after some initial hiccups/declines, within the next five years we are going to see a whole new World Order in finance and I cannot see anyone sitting at the top other than China.

Communism has too many faults to mention but one thing it does achieve, rightly or wrongly, is 'getting things done" and at the moment this is exactly what the world needs - proactive, not reactive.  Fast not slow.

Let's face it, to get anything done in the US, new policies have to go through a mind-boggling series of hoops to get approved - by which time, another problem has arisen because of the circuitous route the first policy took to be implemented.

"Too Big To Fail" is a phrase we're hearing more and more when talking about GM, Citibank or Bank of America.  How about we turn that around; 'Too Failed to be Big'!

An apt phrase to describe the US going forward!

On to the numbers for the week:
 
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryUS stocks finished marginally higher on Friday after a late rally led by the energy sector, which was boosted by a rise in oil prices.

Equities had fallen steeply during the day on the back of news that unemployment levels for December and January were revised up, contributing to the highest rate in a quarter of a century.

But a late surge meant that shares ended a bruising week with a rise that was as small as it was rare.

Energy stocks were the biggest winners, with Chevron gaining 3.2% to $58.27 and Exxon Mobil picking up 2.9% to $64.03.

The S&P ended up 0.1% at 683.38 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.5% higher at 6,626.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell however, off 0.4% at 1,293.85.

But beyond energy stocks there was little good news as the financial sector continued its slide.

JPMorgan was one of the heavier fallers, losing 4% to $15.93, while PNC Financial dropped 7.5% to $18.51.

Investors fear there will be no let up in the selling of financials unless a decision is made by legislators to take further action to shore up the sector.

But Wells Fargo bucked the trend after it became the last traditional commercial bank to slash its dividend, dropping it from 34 cents to 5 cents.

Before Friday, the company's shares had lost 43.6% in a week on expectations it would cut its pay-out. Its shares rebounded 6% to $8.61, suggesting investors had feared an even steeper reduction.

Telecoms companies suffered when JPMorgan warned that AT&T might soon have to cut its dividend to conserve cash. AT&T fell 0.1% to $22.58, while Verizon also dropped, losing 2.3% to $27.28.

JPMorgan also had a warning for the technologies sector, cutting its price target and profit views on Apple, saying the next few quarters could be "bumpy". This triggered a sell-off across the sector, which had outperformed the S&P index by 1.5% over the last week. Apple's shares fell 4% to $85.30.

General Motors slumped further after saying it might cost $1bn to divest the Swedish carmaker Saab. Its top executives are also reported to be more open to the idea of a speedy bankruptcy and reorganisation. The company's shares lost 22% to $1.45.

There was good news for Macy's, however, which was raised to a "conviction buy" from "neutral" by Goldman Sachs on reduced fears about the company's balance sheet. Its shares lifted 5.5% to $6.94.

Coca-Cola was also able to give the markets a bounce after saying it would invest $2bn in new plant and distribution infrastructure in China over the next three years. Its shares rose 3.3% to $39.10.

A turbulent week for General Electric, during which their shares dipped to lows not seen since 1991, ended on a high as analysts at both Merrill Lynch and Bernstein Research said they did not think the company's finance arm would have to write down assets sharply in the near future. Its shares closed 6% up at $7.06.

Despite the small gains on Friday, equities had their worst week since November 2008 as investors reacted with disappointment to policymakers' latest efforts to rescue the banking system. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq all lost between 6 and 7% for the week.
 
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryThe Stoxx 600 retreated 1.3% to 159.52, the lowest since November 1996. The measure fluctuated between gains and losses before retreating in the last 90 minutes of trading. An earlier report showed the American unemployment rate climbed to 8.1% last month, while the number of jobs lost was in line with economists' estimates.

The Stoxx 600 lost 7.8% this week as companies from Danisco A/S to Bayer AG gave disappointing forecasts, China quelled speculation the government will add to its stimulus plan and HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, announced the largest rights offer by a British company.

GERMANY

German stocks posted their fourth straight weekly drop, sending the DAX Index to the lowest level since August 2004, as concern mounted the global recession will further depress earnings.

Metro AG, Germany's largest retailer, fell to a three-month low and Salzgitter AG, the country's second largest steelmaker, dropped for a second day. Infineon Technologies AG, Europe's second-largest chipmaker, tumbled 13% after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Japanese electronics makers need to raise capital. SAP AG slid 2.7%.

The benchmark DAX Index declined 0.8% to 3,666.41, extending its retreat this week to 4.6%. The HDAX Index of Germany's 110 biggest companies fell 1%.

Metro declined 3% to 20.07 Euros, the lowest since Nov. 20. Salzgitter dropped 2.8% to 41.32 Euros.

Infineon, Europe's second-largest maker of semiconductors, which generates about a third of its sales in the Asia-Pacific region, slumped 13% to 41 cents. SAP AG, the world's largest maker of business-management software, retreated 2.7% to 25.005 Euros.

Toshiba Corp., Elpida Memory Inc. and Pioneer Corp. are most in need of raising capital among Japanese electronics makers with deteriorating financial health, Goldman said.

Arques Industries AG surged 7.5% to 1 Euro. The investment company said it sold its Rohe unit and will have to account for extraordinary depreciation "in the low single- digit range" in its 2008 figures.

SGL Carbon SE fell 7.1% to 16.31 Euros. The world's largest maker of carbon and graphite products had its recommendation cut to "sell" from "buy" at DZ Bank AG, which said the company's outlook may be disappointing.

Takkt AG plunged 21% to 5.45 Euros, the steepest slide since its initial public offering in 1999. The business-to-business mail-order company announced it is introducing shortened shifts for its workers to help cut costs after revenue slumped about 30% in January and February. The sales trend is unlikely to change in March, Takkt said.

TUI AG, the travel company that's selling its Hapag-Lloyd shipping line, tumbled 8.2% to 3.37 Euros on renewed concern that the deal may collapse.

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index retreated 35.18, or 1.4%, to 2,534.45 in Paris, for a 6.2% decline this week. That's the index's fourth straight weekly drop. The SBF 120 Index slipped 1.5% Friday.

Financial shares, the biggest losers in the CAC 40 Index this week, extended declines. Dexia SA, the world's biggest lender to local governments, fell 5.4% to 1.14 Euros, extending this week's loss to 32% for the worst performance in the CAC 40.

Credit Agricole SA, France's second-largest bank, slid 7.7% to 6.11 Euros and is the second-worst performer in the CAC 40 over the five days with a 22% drop.

Societe Generale SA, the country's third-largest bank and the CAC 40's third-worst performing share this week, sank 6.6% to 19.84 Euros Friday.

BNP Paribas SA retreated 1.24 Euros, or 5.4%, to 21.73 Euros. France's biggest bank and the Belgian government are nearing a decision on a revised deal for Fortis's operations in Belgium and Luxembourg, Finance Minister Didier Reynders said in a radio interview before the start of an inner cabinet meeting in Brussels.

Total SA, Europe's largest oil refiner, added 42 cents, or 1.2%, to 35.99 Euros. Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 4.2% to $45.45 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Veolia Environnement SA increased 56 cents, or 3.5%, to 16.51 Euros. The world's biggest water company has no plans for a capital increase under any circumstances, Chief Executive Officer Henri Proglio said. The company is targeting asset sales of 3 billion Euros through 2011 and will cut investment spending by 44% this year to boost profitability after a 56% drop in 2008 profit.

"There's a significant cost-cutting plan," said Benoit de Broissia, an equity analyst at KBL Richelieu Gestion in Paris, which oversees $2 billion. "It's positive in the short term, even if it's to the detriment of long-term growth."

BELGIUM

In Brussels the Bel 20 shed 1.6% Friday to bring the week to a close at 1,527.27.

Shares in Fortis surged on Friday as French bank BNP Paribas continued to wrestle with the Belgian government over the details of the break-up of the troubled Benelux financial group.

Fortis was split up by the Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments in October, with BNP Paribas, France's largest bank by market value, purchasing its Belgian operations. However Fortis shareholders later attempted to shoot the deal down in a vote.

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the Belgian brewer that bought its biggest US rival last year, may move its headquarters to New York and list shares there to focus on the world's most profitable beer market, analysts said.

AB InBev said Thursday it will switch to reporting in Dollars from this quarter to reflect the increased importance of the US The acquisition of Anheuser's Budweiser and Bud Light, the two biggest-selling beers in the US, means the country now generates more than 40% of earnings, the company said.

In January, the world's biggest brewer said it would open a New York office and move some managers there from the town of Leuven in Belgium, where the company's roots date to the 14th century.

THE NETHERLANDS

In Amsterdam the AEX dropped 0.54% to close at 199.50.

ING fell a further 6.8% to €2.44.

Dutch broker Van der Moolen Holding said on Friday that it is scrapping plans to buy part of Dutch securities finance company GSFS BV for 43.3 million Euros ($54.7 million) in cash and shares.

SWITZERLAND

The SMI in Zurich plunged 1.79% on Friday to end the week at 4,311.61.

Roche Holding AG raised its offer to buy cancer-drug partner Genentech Inc. by 7.5% to $45.7 billion after investors said a higher price could speed completion of a 7 1/2-month takeover battle.

The Swiss drugmaker is offering Genentech shareholders $93 a share to buy the 44% of the US biotechnology company it doesn't already own. "We talked to a number of investors in Genentech and came to the sentiment that if we wanted to get this deal done in a reasonable amount of time, we needed to increase our offer," Roche Chairman Franz Humer said in a telephone interview Friday.

Genentech urged shareholders to take no action for now on the latest bid. Roche offered $89 a share in July, which Genentech rejected as too low, before dropping the price to $86.50 in January and taking a hostile offer directly to shareholders. Roche's raised bid is attracting shareholders who have been holding out for a better price.

Roche extended its offer until midnight March 20 from March 12, the company said in a statement. As of Thursday, 500,000 shares had been tendered at the $86.50 price, according to Humer. The company wants full control to ensure access to Genentech labs after their partnership ends in 2015 and to boost income from the US company's cancer drugs.

AUSTRIA

The ATX in Vienna also suffered badly on the day (and the week), down 1.87% Friday at 1,419.03.

Shares in Austrian high-technology machinery maker Andritz AG fell Friday, despite the company reporting a 3.9% rise in 2008 net profit, after it said it expects lower sales and profits in 2009.


DENMARK

The OMX Copenhagen 20 finished the week at 213.11, drops of 2.58% on Friday.

Denmark's AP Møller-Maersk, owner of the world's largest container shipping line, has become the latest company to reveal the extent of the crisis facing the sector, saying volumes shipped in January were down 20% on a year earlier.

The container volume declines, together with falling oil prices and problems at Danske Bank, of which Maersk owns a fifth, prompted the company to warn that this year's profits would be significantly lower than in 2008. The charges Maersk was able to levy per container shipped no longer covered the variable costs of moving them on some routes, the company said.

The warning came as Maersk announced 2008 results and despite significant profitability improvements in the container shipping division, which mainly consists of Maersk Line, the industry leader. The division has been struggling since the botched integration of P&O Nedlloyd, then the world number three, in 2005.

Post-tax profits at the division rose to $205m from $106m on revenue up to $28.7bn from $25.8bn. Group net profits rose to $3.46bn on $61.2bn in sales, up from $3.42bn on $51.2bn of revenue the previous year.

Nils Andersen, chief executive, said the efforts Maersk had made to improve profitability - including redundancies and efficiency improvements - had paid off.

However, he went on: "Needless to say, with the rates and the market development we are facing at this point in time, it's very easy to predict that 2009 will be a very difficult year."

Maersk is also likely to see declining earnings at its oil and gas business, which operates rigs off Denmark, the UK, Qatar and elsewhere.

Profits also slumped at Danske Bank, Denmark's largest bank, in which Maersk holds 20%. Maersk's share of the profits fell to $39.3m, against $2.92bn in 2007. The group also wrote off $216m in goodwill on its stake.

Profits at the tankers, offshore and other shipping operations division also fell.

Mr Andersen, who last year said he planned significant disposals of businesses but has had little success executing them, said market conditions meant the company was likely to dispose of few assets this year.

"In the present market, it's not realistic to calculate on being able to sell at reasonable prices this year," he said.

The container shipping industry is suffering not only from falling demand for the goods - such as Chinese-manufactured toys - carried in its ships but also a significant over-supply of ships.

SWEDEN

The OMX Stockholm 30 was relatively flat, ending the day down just 0.25% at 607.45.

Swedish insurance firm Folksam is set to become the largest shareholder in banking group Swedbank, daily Svenska Dagbladet said on Friday.

The newspaper said that Folksam had demanded shares in Swedbank from Swedish savings bank foundations which the foundations put up as security for a loan.

The foundations are Swedbank's largest shareholder.

Shares in Swedbank have fallen around 90% over the last year.

The vice chairman of the savings bank foundations' fund management company, Ingvar Melin, said Folksam had not called in securities on the loan.

"I have been in contact with Folksam's finance chief who said that no security has been called in."

Scandinavian airline SAS said on Friday passenger traffic in February plunged 20.1% from a year earlier.

NORWAY

The OBX in Oslo also came in pretty flat Friday, dropping a mere 0.09% to end the week at 179.63.

StatoilHydro bounced 2.5% to NKr115.70.

Södra and Norske Skog have been purchasing wood for their Norwegian mills through their jointly-owned company WoodLog (Wood and Logistics AS) since 2000, as Södra informed Lesprom Network. The partnership commenced when Södra acquired the Tofte and Folla pulp mills from Norske Skog.

Södra owns 28% of the shares in WoodLog and Norske Skog owns 72%.

However, owners' wood requirements have changed in recent years with regard to issues such as imports, certification requirements and the need for different wood species. Södra has therefore decided to leave the purchasing partnership and establish its own organisation for wood procurement in Norway.

Norske Skog will take over Södra's shares in WoodLog on December 31, 2009. Existing contracts between WoodLog and wood suppliers will be fulfilled even after Norske Skog has taken over the company.

FINLAND

The OMX Helsinki declined 2.52% Friday, bring the week to a close at 4,110.31.

Finnish paper and packaging firm M-real Oyj warned of a deeper-than-expected first-quarter loss and dropped further result forecasts due to the grim global economy, sending its shares down 7%.

"Demand and delivery volumes have remained weaker than estimated and production curtailments have continued on a larger scale than earlier planned," the company said in a statement on Friday, adding it had written down pulp inventories.

The paper firm said its operating loss, minus one-offs, would be larger than the 51 million Euros ($64.5 million) loss it made in the fourth quarter. In December, it had forecast a smaller loss in its first quarter.

M-real said it would not give specific result estimates until further notice given the exceptionally challenging economy.

Its shares were down 7.1% to 0.26 Euro.

Helsinki-listed lift and escalators maker KONE has raised Eur22.41m in a equity increase, the company said on Friday.

KONE issued 89,640 new class B shares, which have all been subscribed to, and will start trading on the Helsinki bourse on 9 March.

The new shares qualify for dividend payments in the current financial year, KONE said.

KONE B shares were listed on the main list of the Helsinki stock exchange on 1 June 2005.

SPAIN

The Ibex in Madrird followed Regional trends, dropping 1.27% to end the week at 6,936.90.

Inditex SA, the Spanish owner of the Zara chain, slid the most in five years in Madrid trading after the retailer told analysts their sales and profit estimates are too high.

The retailer spoke with brokerages Thursday, according to two analysts who held discussions with the Arteixo, Spain-based retailer. They asked not to be identified, saying the conversations were informal and private. Spokesman Jesus Echevarria said Inditex wouldn't comment.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. removed Inditex from its list of "conviction buy" stocks Friday, saying the analysts' comments could be "concerning to the market." Spain's shrinking economy and rising unemployment has led retailers to step up discounts. El Corte Ingles, Spain's largest retailer, was advertising discounts of 50% on some fashions last week.

PORTUGAL

The PSI General in Lisbon chalked up one of the rare gains on Friday, up 0.9% at 1,941.19.

Galp Energia was up 0.8% to €8.47.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark S&P/MIB Index sank to a record low, led by bank stocks amid concern an economic slowdown at home and in eastern Europe will weigh on earnings.

The S&P/MIB fell 4.6% to 12,895 in Milan, having earlier declined as much as 5%, slipping below 13,000 for the first time. The measure dropped 16% this week, the most since October.

This year will be "more difficult" for the economy than 2008 because global growth will be affected by the credit crunch and bank failures, Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti said Thursday.

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Italy's second-biggest bank by assets, dropped 7.4% to 1.45 Euros, after losing as much as 17%. "Considering the downward-spiraling economic outlook, we could accept the risk to the downside for earnings" at Intesa, Mediobanca Securities analysts wrote in a note. "However, we believe that Intesa does not need any capital increase." The shares slumped 9.1% to 1.43 Euros.

UniCredit SpA, the country's biggest, declined 11% to 72.35 cents.

UBS AG cut its price estimate for Unicredit to 96 cents from 1.85 Euros. The brokerage, which reiterated a "neutral" recommendation, cited "a tougher macro scenario" and wrote "capital concerns continue to weigh on the stock."

Unione di Banche Italiane SCPA fell 8% to 6.31 Euros. Italy's fourth-biggest bank by branches had its price projection lowered to 6.4 Euros from 9 Euros at Deutsche Bank AG. The brokerage kept a "sell" recommendation.

Credit defaults swaps that hedge against losses on Italian government bonds rose 4.5 basis points to a record 201, according to CMA Datavision.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it asked Italy's securities market watchdog Consob to investigate a rumor related to the stability of the country's finances.

The firm also disputes it's marketing a product which implies a negative view on the country's sovereign debt, JPMorgan said in an e-mailed statement Friday.

Assicurazioni Generali SpA declined 65 cents, or 5.9%, to 10.43 Euros, the lowest in more than 16 years. Italy's biggest insurer was downgraded to "neutral" from "add" at WestLB AG.

Azimut Holding SpA dropped 25.75 cents, or 7.1%, to 3.39 Euros, dropping for a second day. The fund manager said 2009 inflows totaled 44 million Euros, and net inflows into funds in February were 3 million Euros.

Banca Italease SpA dropped for the first time in three days, losing 9 cents, or 7%, to 1.19 Euros. Cheuvreux halved its price estimate on the Italian leasing company to 1 Euro.

Banco Popolare SC, Italease's main shareholder, dropped 19.75 cents, or 8.7%, to 2.08 Euros.

Lottomatica SpA added 85 cents, or 6.7%, to 13.52 Euros. The manager of Italy's national lottery said that it had a fourth-quarter 2008 net loss of 12.7 million Euros compared with net income of 15.9 million Euros during the same period a year earlier.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which has a "buy" recommendation on the stock, said 2008 results were "good." Deutsche Bank kept the same recommendation, noting results are coupled with an "encouraging outlook."

Mediaset SpA dropped 14.25 cents, or 4.2%, to 3.26 Euros, the lowest since the company went public in 1996. Exane initiated coverage of the broadcaster controlled by Berlusconi with an "underperform" recommendation and a price estimate of 2.7 Euros.

Bank of America Corp. added the stock to its "least preferred" stocks in the European media industry.

Pirelli & C. Real Estate retreated 17.25 cents, or 8.3%, to 1.9 Euros, a fourth day of losses this week. The company lost 195 million Euros last year compared with a net profit of 151 million Euros in 2007.

GREECE

In Athens the Athex gave up 0.48% to close the week at 1,474.35.
 
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsMost UK stocks dropped as a surge in US unemployment added to concern the global economy is deteriorating, offsetting better-than-expected sales at WPP Plc.

Wolseley Plc led declining stocks as the world's biggest distributor of heating and plumbing gear said it plans a share sale. BT Group Plc, the UK's largest phone company, fell 11% as Morgan Stanley advised clients to sell the shares. WPP, the largest advertising company, climbed 4.2%.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index added 0.87, or less than 0.1%, to 3,530.73 in London, as 66 stocks fell and 36 advanced. The gauge had its fourth straight weekly drop amid concern financial firms will post further losses and the economy will worsen.

Wolseley plunged 15% to 140.4 pence after saying it plans to raise 1 billion Pounds ($1.42 billion) in a share sale and exit its US-based Stock Building Supply unit.

WPP added 4.2% to 390 pence. Revenue advanced 21% to 7.48 billion Pounds ($10.7 billion), beating the median analyst estimate of 7.28 billion Pounds.

Pension fund and dividend concerns send BT Group to a record low on Friday.

The stock dived after Morgan Stanley estimated BT will have to top up its fund by at least £500m a year.

The 2008 final dividend could be axed to fund top-ups, which would leave the shares at a significant premium to the sector, it said.

Firms with pension fund deficits have been in focus this week after the Bank of England announced £75bn of quantitative easing, driving down yields on low-risk investments such as gilts.

These rates are used by actuaries to discount pension fund liabilities, so as yields fall the deficit rises.

BT faces a triennial pension review in May.

Morgan Stanley said the deficit on BT's £30bn pension fund deficit could exceed £8bn, against £2.3bn reported at the end of 2008, even without any changes to longevity assumptions.

If the group adopts similar assumptions to Royal Mail, then the deficit could reach £10bn, it said.

BT shares lost 11.2% to 74.1p, the lowest level since its flotation at 130p in 1984.

Aviva led the insurance stocks lower for a second day Thursday as spooked investors looked to price the sector to its most conservative measure, current cash value.

Aviva lost 14% to 163.3p as HSBC downgraded to "underweight", Legal & General fell 6.8% to 24.8p and Prudential was down 5.3% to 209¼p.

Old Mutual was a relative outperformer, closing lower by 2.2% to 31.8p.

While talk of disposals helped, traders saw Old Mutual as the sector outlier because of its decision this week to protect liquidity by cutting its dividend.

Miners bounced in tandem with metals prices, with ENRC leading the blue chips on a 6.9% gain to 376¼p, while Rio Tinto was up 5.3% to £18.25 and Randgold Resources took on 5.2% to £34.31.

Bid speculation continued to underpin Tullow Oil, up 3.6% to 735p.

GlaxoSmithKline was up 0.6% to £10.22½p amid speculation that it would bid for Aspen Pharmacare, Africa's biggest generic drug maker.

The drugmakers were sidelined on pipeline concerns after the US regulator said it was applying new guidelines in its review of a diabetes treatment already submitted by Takeda, the Japanese pharmaceuticals group.

GSK and AstraZeneca, down 1.7% to £21.47, also have diabetes products awaiting late-stage review.

Yell Group was down 12.2% to 16¼p, Enterprise Inns lost 15.3% to 43p, Inchcape was 13.6% weaker at 36½p and Brixton fell 17.8% to 18½p.

ITV dropped 17.1% to 18¼p, a record low.

Wellstream slid 11.3% to 391¼p after NKT, the Danish pipe and cablemaker, said it was struggling to fill its order book as demand from oil companies had fallen sharply.

Credit Suisse, Wellstream's joint house broker, cut its 2009 profit forecast 16%. It also cautioned that the group still needs to secure about £150m of new orders to meet the forecast, the same amount won intra-year in last year's boom market.

Candover Investments led the mid-cap risers after admitting it was taking to shareholders about all options, including winding down the business.

The stock, which has tumbled from 250p this week, rallied 14.9% to 125p.
 
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Japan's key stock index dropped more than 3% to a four-month closing low Friday after worries over the fate of money-losing General Motors Corp. and growing pessimism about the US economy dragged Wall Street sharply lower overnight.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index tumbled 260.39 points, or 3.5%, to 7,173.10, the lowest since it closed at 7,162.90 on October 27, 2008. The broader Topix index fell 2.7% to 721.39, the lowest since Dec. 24, 1983 when it finished at 715.68.

Taking a cue from Wall Street, investors dumped shares, and their sentiment was really downbeat throughout the day due to uncertainty over the fate of GM.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world's largest automaker, fell 2.8% to 2,900 Yen. Honda Motor Co. lost 4.9% to 2,150 Yen. Nissan Motor Co. shed 1.2% to 326 Yen.

Sony Corp. was down 3.8% at 1,715 Yen, and Panasonic Corp. declined 2.4% to 1,091 Yen.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong shares ended another poor week with a loss of almost 2.4% Friday as bank shares fell heavily on fresh concerns over the financial sector's outlook.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index dipped below the 12,000-point barrier, losing 289.72 points to end the day at 11,921.52.

Turnover was 46.9 billion Hong Kong Dollars (6 billion US Dollars).

Friday's slide, which saw the index end the week almost 900 points down on its opening level from Monday, was led by banking stocks HSBC along with the Hang Seng Bank, Bank of China Hong Kong and the Bank of East Asia.

SOUTH KOREA

The Kospi traded in line with regional indices Friday, dropping 0.3% on the day.

Foreign investors sold a net 34.02 billion Won worth of shares and local institutions bought a net 97.7 billion Won worth on the main board. Retail investors sold a net 111.7 billion Won worth of shares.

Decliners led advancers by 458 to 354, with 72 titles ending unchanged.

A total of 455.1 million shares worth 3.39 trillion Won changed hands, compared with 503.75 million shares worth 4.44 trillion Won traded on Thursday.

The KOSPI 200 March futures index fell 2.20 points to 136.85 points and the KOSPI 200 spot index shed 0.42 points to 137.83.

The junior Kosdaq market gained 0.83% to end at 365.18 points.

Bukwang Pharmaceutical Co., surged 7.8% after receiving approval to sell a hepatitis drug.

CHINA

Chinese stocks fell back on Friday as short-term speculators took profits after the market surged over the previous two days on hopes for an early economic recovery.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which had rocketed 7.22% on Wednesday and Thursday, ended Friday down 1.26% at 2,193.007 points, after hitting a low of 2,171.668.

Turnover in Shanghai A shares shrank to 105.2 billion Yuan ($15.4 billion) from Thursday's 154.1 billion Yuan.

Financials and industrial metals, which led this week's rise, bore the brunt of profit-taking. Bank of China fell 2.19% to 3.58 Yuan after soaring 14.38% in the past two days, while Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) lost 2.80% to 9.39 Yuan after gaining 9.52%.

Much of this week's buying of stocks was short-term speculation fuelled by loose monetary policy and a government-directed surge in bank lending, analysts believe. That could leave the market vulnerable to a pull-back if economic data and news on government policies disappoint.

A senior economic planning official said on Friday that the government needed to wait and see before deciding if additional economic stimulus was needed. This contradicted hopes that China might announce an expansion of its 4 trillion Yuan stimulus plan during the annual parliament session ending next week.

But investors still expect the government to expand fiscal spending later if that seems necessary, and officials are continuing to sound cautiously optimistic about the economy. This appears likely to prevent any extended market downtrend.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stocks rose 0.35% on Friday, hitting a fresh two-month closing high, as technology shares such as TSMC and Chi Mei jumped on rising demand from China's subsidy programmes.

The main TAIEX share index ended up 16.43 points at 4,653.63, marking its strongest close since Jan. 7 and extending a 5% gain over the previous three sessions.

Shares of top contract chip maker TSMC jumped 4.08% and shares of LCD maker Chi Mei rose 4.98%.

However, major DRAM shares weakened after the Taiwan government announced it will set up a new chip company to consolidate the struggling sector.

THE PHILIPPINES

Philippine shares fell 0.2% on Friday as the market consolidated after a two-day rally, dealers said.

The composite index slipped 4.14 points to 1,920.16 points while the all shares index fell by 0.08% to 1,232.87 points.

There were 17 gainers, 65 losers and 31 unchanged.

Turnover amounted to 1.198 billion shares worth P3.744 billion ($76.8 million).

Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT) dropped 0.8% to 2,290 while Ayala Corp. fell 0.5% to 195.

San Miguel Corp. saw its A shares fall 1.11% to 44.50 while its B shares gained 1.12% to 45.

Power retailer Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) bucked the trend and continued its winning streak, ending up P14 or 12.5% at P126.

A group led by PLDT top honcho Manuel V. Pangilinan has been rumored to be accumulating shares in Meralco in preparation for a likely boardroom battle.

MALAYSIA

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended weaker in volatile trading Friday on heavy selling in big-capitalised stocks such as Maybank, Tenaga Nasional and TM International, dealers said.

The benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) fell 11.02 points to close at 858.22. It had opened 5.61 points lower at 863.63.

The KLCI moved between 857.22 and 864.20 throughout the trading session.

Dealers said Maybank was the big loser after it announced the price of its rights shares at RM2.74 each for its planned RM6 billion rights offering.

The issue price marked a 43% discount to its closing price of RM4.82 on Thursday.

Maybank shares fell 28 sen or 5.80% to RM4.54 Friday.

The dealers said investors were less excited about the timing and size of the issue.

Finance counters also led the losses on expectations of more capital-raising exercises by banks.

The speculation pressure on bank stocks saw Bumiputra-Commerce fall 15 sen to RM6.05, Public Bank which dropped 15 sen to RM8.00 while Hong Leong Bank slipped 10 sen to RM5.20.

The Finance Index also plunged 159.60 points to 6,492.06.

The Industrial Index meanwhile declined 12.51 points to 2,058.28, the Plantation Index lost 15.03 points to 4,354.91, FBMEmas fell 77.58 points to 5,598.44 and the FBM30 dipped 89.68 points to 5,498.64.

The FBMMesdaq went down 76.84 points to 3,034.65 while the FBM2BRD was 8.65 points lower at 3,943.62.

Losers thumped gainers by 359 to 120 while 203 counters were unchanged, 562 untraded and 32 others suspended.

Friday's turnover slipped to 282.249 million shares worth RM469.575 million from the 381.649 million shares valued at RM613.399 million recorded Thursday. -- MORE According to dealers, losses on regional bourses amid worries over the global financial sector, further weighed on Bursa.

They said, sentiment also remained weak, with most investors staying sidelined ahead of the long holiday next week and the tabling of the second stimulus package on March 10.

Bursa Malaysia would be closed on March 9 for the Maulidur Rasul public holiday.It will reopen on March 10.

At close of trading Friday, volume on the Main Board declined to 238.531 million shares worth RM461.926 million from 338.885 million shares valued at RM604.433 million Thursday.

Turnover on the Second Board fell to 17.454 million shares valued at RM4.223 million from 23.693 million shares worth RM6.282 million previously.

However, volume on the Mesdaq Market increased to 12.374 million shares worth RM2.245 million from 6.972 million shares valued at RM1.640 million Thursday.

Warrants rose to 12.447 million shares valued at RM757,511 from Thursday's close of 10.830 million shares worth RM697,390.

Among the volume leaders, Compugates and KNM Group were flat at 17.5 sen and 36.5 sen respectively while Resorts World lost six sen to RM2.01.

As for the blue chips, Sime Darby increased five sen to RM5.50 and IOI Corp eased two sen to RM3.72.

Tenaga Nasional dropped 15 sen to RM6.10 on concerns that the company's earnings would be affected by a reduction in electricity tariffs.

SINGAPORE

Singapore's benchmark index STI turned lower after a 1% rise on Wednesday, with the region's biggest bank, DBS, extending its fall for a fifth day, down 2.1%, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp dropping 3%.

Investors in Singapore were more concerned about the local economy facing its worst recession ever, analysts said.

Financials in Singapore are actually reeling from two things. One is about the continuing domestic slowdown and, secondly, exposure to other Asian countries.

United Overseas Bank, the second biggest lender, fell 0.6% while, among China plays, Singapore-listed Chinese developer Yanlord Land dropped 6%. It jumped 17.1% on Wednesday on hopes for measures to support China's property market.

INDONESIA

Indonesia's main stock index edged 0.11% lower, with top listed plantation company PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk tumbling 6.7% and coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk falling 0.7%.

Stockholders of PT Apexindo Pratama Duta a drilling company under PT Mitra Rajasa approved the company's stocks removal from the Indonesian bourse, as the bourse authority found a significant revenue dependance of the parent company on its subsidary.

In a stockholders meeting on Thursday evening (5/3) stockholders approved a voluntary delisting as the bourse regulations bar two companies with significant revenue dependance to trade in the Indonesia Stock Exchange, and required one among the company to pull its shares from trade.

THAILAND

Thailand moved narrowly, ending up 0.58%, buoyed by dividend plays in banking stocks and buying of some battered energy firms.

State-run Krung Thai Bank, the country's second largest lender, was among gainers, rising nearly 2% to a one-week high, while number three Siam Commercial Bank edged up 1.8%.

Energy shares led losers, with PTT down 3.3%, ex-dividend, and Thai Oil off 2.9%. But banks outpaced the broader market, with Siam Commercial Bank rising 3.8% and Bangkok Bank adding 3.5%.

INDIA

Markets ended on a strong note. IT stocks which rose over 3% gained the most. Shares of Satyam Computer Services rose on reports of company receiving Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approval to facilitate a global competitive bidding process subject to receipt of all approvals, contemplates. Shares of the company rose over 19% to close at day`s high of Rs 42.10.

Major movers in the sectoral gainers included BSE Oil&Gas (1.76%), Capital Goods (1.54%), Power (1.34%) and Metal (1.32%). Meanwhile, BSE FMCG (1.73%), Realty (0.89%) and Auto were draggers in the 30-share index.

BSE Midcap and Smallcaps ends down  0.65% and 0.83% respectively.

Shares of Satyam Computer Services rose on reports of company receiving Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approval to facilitate a global competitive bidding process subject to receipt of all approvals, contemplates. Shares of the company rose over 19% to close at day`s high of Rs 42.10.

Major movers in the sectoral gainers included BSE Oil&Gas (1.76%), Capital Goods (1.54%), Power (1.34%) and Metal (1.32%). Meanwhile, BSE FMCG (1.73%), Realty (0.89%) and Auto were draggers in the 30-share index.

BSE Midcap and Smallcaps however closed on a negative note down by 0.65% and 0.83% respectively.

The Sensex ended the day with a gain of 127.90 points, or 1.56% at 8,325.82 after touching a high of 8,347.74 and a low of 8,047.17. The broad-based NSE Nifty gained 43.45 points, or 1.69% at 2,620.15 after hitting a high of 2,628.10 and a low of 2,539.45.

Biggest gainers in the 30-share index were Housing Development Finance Corporation (6.40%), Hindalco Industries (4.38%), Jaiprakash Associates (4.27%), Tata Consultancy Services (3.84%), Wipro (3.37%), and Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (3.31%).

On the other hand, Maruti Suzuki India (2.77%), Hindustan Unilever (2.65%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (2.15%), ITC (1.61%), and DLF (1.12%) were the biggest losers in the Sensex.

Overall market breadth was negative. Out of the total 2,500 shares traded at BSE, 993 advanced, 1,419 declined while 88 remained unchanged.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian sharemarket has reversed Thursday's gains, slumping after falls in New York and Europe overnight.

The All Ordinaries index closed down 1.2% to 3,112 points and the ASX 200 lost 43 points to 3,146.

The Bank of Queensland is cutting about 150 jobs, or about 10% of its workforce, by the end of the month in response to the financial crisis.

Its shares closed 2% lower at $6.44.

BHP Billiton closed down 2.3% lower at $27.65.

Meanwhile, the corporate regulator ASIC has secured a proposed settlement over the Opes Prime collapse.

Under the proposal, the former stockbroker's lenders, ANZ and Merrill Lynch, would pool funds with Opes Prime's remaining cash and assets to deliver $253 million to investors.

ASIC says that represents 40 cents in the Dollar on the value of creditors' claims in March last year, when Opes went into administration.

ASIC has also agreed not to pursue two lawsuits against ANZ and Merrill Lynch if the proposal is approved by the courts and Opes creditors.

ANZ closed 2.3% lower at $12.36.

NEW ZEALAND

The New Zealand share market tumbled Friday, but avoided the carnage experienced on Wall Street.

As usual the movement in the New Zealand market was in the same direction but not as extreme.

The benchmark NZX-50 index closed down 20.361 points, or 0.817%, at 2471.040, following gains of 22 points and 51 points in the previous two days.

Turnover was $70.48 million. There were 23 rises and 63 falls among the 122 stocks traded.

Rakon rose 12c to 97 and when queried by NZX had no material events to disclose.

Among leading stocks Telecom was down 7c to 239, Fletcher Building slipped 12c to 515, and Contact Energy rose 4c to 555.

Kiwi Income Property Trust was unchanged at 101 after announcing the sale of a building for $12 million to help reduce debt.

TrustPower fell 10c to 715. APN News fell 10c to 120.

Mainfreight lost 10c to 330 and Tourism Holdings was down 7c to 47. Sky City fell 7c to 256. ANZ rose 85c to 1700 and it announced a rise in underlying profit in in the depths of a downturn in New Zealand in the three months to December.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare rose 5c to 338.
 
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesGold futures rose for the second straight day on demand for the precious metal as an alternative to stocks and government bonds. Silver also gained.

US unemployment in February surged to 8.1%, the highest in 25 years. Global equities headed for the fourth straight weekly decline. US Treasuries are down 2.5% this year through Thursday. Gold has gained 6.6% in 2009.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $14.90, or 1.6%, to $942.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Thursday, the price climbed 2.3%, halting an eight-session slide. The metal was little changed this week.

Silver futures for May delivery climbed 21.3 cents, or 1.6%, to $13.333 an ounce. The metal rose 1.7% this week.

Crude oil rose to a five-week high as the US Dollar weakened against the Euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Oil climbed 4.4% and the Dollar weakened versus the Euro after unemployment advanced to the highest in 25 years in the US, the world's biggest energy user. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will consider a fourth production cut when ministers meet on March 15.

Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.91 to $45.52 a barrel at 2:57 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Jan. 26. Prices climbed 1.7% this week and are up 2.1% so far this year.

Gasoline futures for April delivery increased 1.95 cents, or 1.5%, to end the session at $1.3322 a gallon in New York. Heating oil for April delivery climbed 6.96 cents, or 6%, to settle at $1.2294, the biggest gain since Jan. 23.

Copper prices rose, capping the second straight weekly gain, on renewed optimism that demand will climb in China, the world's biggest metal user.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of China's central bank, pledged fast and forceful policies to restore confidence and said he saw "signs of stabilization and recovery" in the world's third- biggest economy. Copper jumped 9.8% this week on speculation that government spending will help boost economic expansion in China and spur metal demand.

Copper futures for May delivery rose 3.55 cents, or 2.1%, to $1.689 a Pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, The metal gained 7.4% last week and is up 20% this year.

China is ready to buy copper and other industrial metals for reserves, Reuters reported, citing government-owned trading company China Minmetals Corp. The country's refined-copper imports may reach 2 million metric tons this year as the State Reserve Bureau adds to inventories, Macquarie Group Ltd. forecast this week. That was up from 1.4 million tons last year, the bank said.

Soybeans rose for the third time in four days and corn gained for the second straight week on signs that demand for commodities will rebound.

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs, increased for the sixth straight session to the highest in more than four months as China increases raw-material reserves.

Soybean futures for May delivery rose 15 cents, or 1.8%, to $8.67 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Still, futures fell 0.6% this week, the third decline in four weeks. The most-active contract has slumped 47% from an all-time high of $16.3675 on July 3.

Corn futures for May delivery rose 3 cents, or 0.8%, to $3.615 a bushel in Chicago. The price gained 0.7% for the week, the second increase after seven straight declines. Corn still has dropped 55% from a record $7.9925 on June 27.
 
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets The Dollar rose to a three-year high this week as renewed weakness on equity markets and more evidence of a sharp slowdown in the global economy drove investors to the haven of the US currency.

The Dollar index, which tracks its progress against a basket of six major currencies, rose to a high of 89.624 on Wednesday, its strongest level since April 2006.

But after hitting a four-month high of $1.2455 against the Euro on Wednesday and Y99.67 against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, the Dollar went into retreat on Friday as data showed the US unemployment rate rising to its highest level in 25 years last month.

Over the week the Dollar fell 0.2% to $1.2656 against the Euro, lost 1.5% to SFr1.1533 against the Swiss Franc and eased 0.1% to Y97.65 against the Yen.

The Euro suffered on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut Eurozone interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.5% and Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, struck a dovish tone, warning that the region faced a sharp slowdown and inflationary pressures had eased.

The Euro recovered some ground on Friday to stand up 0.2% at Y123.60 against the Yen on the week, but lost 1.3% to SFr1.4594 against the Swiss Franc.

Sterling lost ground as the Bank of England cut UK interest rates by 50bp to a record low of 0.5% and revealed details of its plans to initiate quantitative easing to boost the British economy.

Over the week, the Pound fell 1.2% to £0.8940 against the Euro and lost 0.9% to $1.4154 against the Dollar.

Meanwhile, the Swedish Krona fell to a fresh record low against the Euro as fears over the extent of Swedish banks' exposure to problems in the Baltic states intensified.

The Krona dropped 2% to SKr11.6715 against the Euro on the week and fell 1.7% to SKr9.2207 against the Dollar.

The South African Rand was bid at 10.5788 to the Dollar from an overnight close of 10.6344. It was bid at 13.4019 to the Euro from a previous 13.3422 and at 15.0230 against Sterling from 15.0230 before.

As always, closing out currencies with the RMB. The RMB appreciated vis-à-vis the US Dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8395 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8409.
 
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan pledged "fast and heavy-handed" policies to restore confidence and prevent the global financial crisis from deepening the nation's economic slump.

"If we act slowly and less decisively, we're likely to see what happened in other countries: a slide in confidence," Zhou said at briefing in Beijing. The central bank has "ample room" to fine-tune monetary policy after a record surge in lending in January, he said.

The central banker said he saw "signs of stabilization and recovery" in the world's third-biggest economy, echoing Premier Wen Jiabao's confidence that the nation's 8% growth target for 2009 remains within reach. Collapsing exports because of the global recession have dragged growth to the weakest pace in seven years and cost the jobs of 20 million migrant workers.

Premier Wen restated the 8% target in an annual speech to China's parliament Thursday, the equivalent of a US State of the Union address.

"We would rather be faster and heavy-handed if it can prevent confidence slumping during the financial crisis," Zhou said Friday.

China's confidence contrasts with US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's warning Thursday that his nation's recession is deepening as it starts a $787 billion stimulus program of public works.

China's official manufacturing index rose for a third month in February, from a record low in November. Wen has also cited growth in power output and consumption, loans and retail sales as positive signs.

Chinese banks doled out a record 1.62 trillion Yuan ($237 billion) of loans in January and more than 800 billion Yuan last month, Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in Beijing Thursday. The regulator plans to conduct spot checks of bank loan books to "ensure quality of growth," Liu said.

Loans and money supply may have grown too quickly, Zhou said, after China cut interest rates, scrapped quotas limiting lending and pressed banks to support a 4 trillion Yuan stimulus package. The jump in lending exceeded the central bank's expectations, he said.

The government will study the results of its existing stimulus package before deciding whether to take any new measures, Zhang Ping, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in Beijing Friday.

The People's Bank of China cut interest rates five times in the final four months of last year, including the biggest single reduction since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, leaving the benchmark one-year lending rate at 5.31%. There have been no cuts in 2009.

China needs "stable and relatively fast growth" to create jobs, boost incomes and ensure social stability, Premier Wen said Thursday.

Not everyone is convinced that China will meet its 8% goal.

The 6.8% gain in the fourth quarter was down from 9% for all of 2008 and 13% for 2007. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the economy will grow 6.7% in 2009, the least in almost two decades.

China's exports may have fallen 20% in February from a year earlier, the 21st Century Business Herald newspaper reported Friday, citing an unidentified trade official. Imports may have also fallen 20% last month, it said.

The nation's trade surplus for February may be $7 billion, the newspaper reported. That would be less than a fifth of the size of January's surplus.

***************************************

Bank of China Ltd. plans to sell as much as 120 billion Yuan ($17.5 billion) of subordinated bonds over the next four years, the most among Chinese lenders, as it offers more credit to support an economic stimulus plan.

China's third-largest bank by value will seek shareholder approval on March 23 to sell bonds with maturities of at least five years, the Beijing-based bank said in a statement Friday.

China's financial institutions have sold 84.8 billion Yuan of bonds in the first two months of this year to bolster capital as the government pushes them to support economic growth. Domestic banks, among the strongest after dodging the fallout of the US subprime-mortgage market's meltdown, now risk an increase in bad loans.

Loan defaults are the single biggest threat to Chinese banks, which face "a choppy 2009" because bad debts may swell after the economy slowed to 6.8% in the fourth quarter, the weakest pace in seven years, Fitch Ratings said in January.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao Thursday set a new loan growth target of 5 trillion Yuan for 2009 in his speech to the nation's parliament while avoiding boosting the government's 4 trillion Yuan stimulus package. China needs to "reverse the economic slide as soon as possible," he said.

Bank of China's capital adequacy ratio stood at 13.78% as of June 30. President Li Lihui said Thursday the bank increased lending "relatively fast" in the first two months, without giving more details. That compares with a ratio of 14.9% at Standard Chartered Plc, which raised 1.8 billion Pounds from a rights offer in December.

Chinese banks are also raising capital to take advantage of lower interest costs after the central bank cut rates five times since September.

China Construction Bank Corp., the nation's second largest, last month raised 40 billion Yuan in the biggest bond sale in the Asia-Pacific region this year. The bank, which sold debt at the lower end of the coupon ranges, plans to sell 80 billion Yuan of subordinated bonds over the coming two years.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the country's largest, said in August it may sell as much as 100 billion Yuan of bonds after domestic loan growth and acquisitions overseas drained capital. ICBC advanced 338 billion Yuan of new loans in the first two months of 2009, almost two-thirds of the bank's lending target for the full year, President Yang Kaisheng said Thursday.

Subordinated bonds are counted as supplementary, or lower- Tier 2 capital. In the event of bankruptcy, holders of subordinated notes receive payment only after other debt claims are paid in full.

***************************************

A general, said Sun Tzu, "must be able to mystify his officers and men by false reports and appearances" to ensure secrecy. Chinese officials applied their Art of War this week: global financial markets were left mystified when Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's speech to the National People's Congress contained no sign whatsoever of the stimulus package it had been suggested he would announce. That was unfortunate, both for what it says about China's anti-crisis policies and about its approach to communication.

In this downturn, China is relatively enviably placed. Many other countries face the paradox of having to sustain deficit spending right now but save more over time. For China, the right policy Friday - compensating for lost exports by boosting domestic spending - is also a sound policy for tomorrow: moving towards a permanently higher share for consumption in national output. That is a rare luxury, which will serve not only the Chinese people. As they become bigger consumers, they will also benefit the rest of the world through increased imports.

So what is China waiting for? With some $2,000bn in reserves - the result of years of accumulated trade surpluses - it has no difficulty financing public deficits to boost domestic demand. The government has already taken some useful steps. It has put in place a subsidy programme for rural residents that encourages them to buy household appliances and consumer electronics. It has also successfully expanded domestic lending through its state-owned banks.

But other actions have been half-hearted. A Rmb4,000bn investment plan was announced last year, but it is not clear that it contains much spending above what would in any case have taken place. A more reliable measurement of stimulus is the budget deficit the government plans to run next year, which Mr Wen said would be 3% of China's economy. That is something - but it seems too unambitious to achieve Mr Wen's stated goal of 8% growth in 2009 when exports are falling by 17.5% year-on-year.

A convincing stimulus package from Beijing is the single most promising opportunity to reinvigorate economic activity in China and around the world. This was illustrated by the sharp bounce Asian markets enjoyed from expectations that Mr Wen would announce such a package. The market reaction revealed the deeper challenge confronting China's leaders. They understand that they must act to slow the global downturn - and indeed that they have more power than anyone else to do so. But they have not yet grasped that inspiring certainty and market confidence is an important part of that task.

Cash is being hoarded everywhere by savers too afraid to lend and consumers too afraid to spend. Ending the crisis requires lifting their uncertainty. Governments' plans must therefore be clear and resolute - but clarity is something China's Communist party still struggles with (not just in economics).

The time has passed when China's opacity mostly caused trouble for itself. Friday the whole world needs it to put some of Sun Tzu's lessons aside.

***************************************

Jaguar Land Rover has won a £600m order to supply 13,000 vehicles to China, in a rare piece of good news for the beleaguered automotive industry.

The luxury carmaker, which is owned by Tata of India has been seeking loans or loan guarantees thought to exceed £500m ($714m) from the government, so far without success. The company has been hit by a sharp fall in sales as a result of the world recession.

The government has urged the company to get support from its Indian parent.

The large Chinese order was unveiled on Friday at a meeting in London between Lord Mandelson, business secretary, and Chen Deming, Chinese commerce minister. They announced a trade package which also included an £800m order for Rolls-Royce to supply aircraft engines to Hong Kong Airlines.

The Chinese business SCAS Investment Group has signed a memorandum of understanding to buy 10,000 Land Rovers and 3,000 Jaguars over three years.

JLR said: "This shows an immediate commitment in us from them and gives us a solid base to build up our business in China. The initiative came from the Chinese government, which pulled together this trade package."

Most of the vehicles will be sold to private individuals by dealerships across China. JLR has found an enthusiastic market for its products in China's fledgling entreprenEurial elite. The company said: "This has been a fast-growing market for us, becoming our fifth biggest in three years, starting from almost nothing."

JLR sold about 13,000 vehicles in China last year, so the order would not be remarkable outside a time of recession. What is probably more important is the assumption of the Chinese that the company will still be in business in three years' time.

Lord Mandelson said in a speech that the UK should be able to meet its goal of increasing exports to China to £10bn a year by 2010 even in a recession. The UK is the largest European investor in China.

Mr Chen said: "We clearly see we should make our import-export trade more balanced. Only by working together can countries work out of this economic low."

According to some economists, recovery from world recession will require emerging economies such as China to sharply reduce their exports of manufactured goods and developed countries such as the UK to significantly increase theirs.
 
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
What a busy week ahead we have the Asiapac' Region and whilst Europe and the US are rather quiet, I cannot say that this looks awe-inspiring at all because the focus will turn away from economic data to a certain extent and focus on sector specifics - such as banking and automakers - and I see nothing 'positive' in both.

Markets will be watching Australian unemployment figures next week, as well as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision. In Japan, the Statistics Bureau will release final figures for fourth quarter GDP.

Economists expect Australia's unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in February from 4.8%, and forecast a loss of 20,000 jobs in the month. While the unemployment rate has started to rise, the increase has been much more moderate than in other industrialized economies. But there's no escape in Australia I feel, the unemployment rate will climb amid the economic slowdown.

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to release its cash rate. The RBNZ cut by 150 basis points at each of its last two meetings, and economists say the pace of rate cuts could slow down at the coming meeting.

Economists expect a 75 basis point cut to 2.75% and I go along with that.

Economists at Westpac are calling for a sharper 100 basis point cut. However, with the Reserve Bank of Australia decision last week to keep rate unchanged, it has placed "a cat amongst the pigeons," they noted.

In Japan, the Statistics Bureau will release final fourth quarter GDP figures. Economists expect the preliminary 3.3% decline in GDP to be downwardly revised to a 3.5% drop.

The upcoming week looks to be a quiet one in Europe, with German industrial orders and UK industrial production the main attention-getters.

The German Economy Ministry will release industrial orders next Wednesday

Economists expect German industrial production to fall by an additional 3.0% month over month in January, after dropping 4.6% to end off 2008. For the 12 months to January, economists expect output in the industrial sector declined 15.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from December's annual fall.

In the UK economists expect industrial production lost ground in January, and has penciled in a 1.5% decline for the industrial sector, as well as a 1.5% fall in manufacturing.

Ahead of the Office for National Statistics (ONS)'s data release, economists are expecting UK industrial output to have slipped 1.2% between December and January, after declining 1.7% previously. Year-over-year, industrial output is expected to fall 9.9% in January, down from December's 9.4% contraction.

A quiet week for US economic data as I mentioned. In Canada, the employment report will provide guidance to domestic markets.

The financial sector continues to drag US equity markets lower, and according to some market strategists, investors will be looking to the US government for more guidance on the banking sector.

The most important data this week appears to be US retail sales, but markets are already preparing for a weak report. January's sales surprised to the upside, but I'm not expecting that trend to last.

In Canada, markets will focus on the employment report, which is expected to show more sharp deterioration in the labour market.

Although the employment data will impact the Canadian Dollar, markets will remain sensitive to global and US trends.

If overall risk appetite is on the rise ahead of the report, it will be supportive of the Canadian Dollar. If that is the case, traders might ignore the domestic data and continue following the trend.

Other than that, another week of 'holding your breath' and hoping that we don't see any 'skeletons' coming out of any banking closets!

I'll close this week with yet another thought for the weekend; if UBS downgrades a company to 'sell'; if Citibank downgrades a sector to 'hold' and if Credit Suisse comes out with a recommendation to 'buy' - given the mess all three are in currently, is this not a pure and simple case of "The Blind Leading The Blind"?
 
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
 
In This Issue
US Markets
European Markets
The UK Market
Asia Pacific Markets
Global Commodities
Global Currencies
China This Week
Summary
Retire
Pensions in the News 
Jobs are being lost; banks are collapsing; will your Government be able to fund your State Pension when you retire?  Time to look closely at your own Private Pension provision - click Here to learn more
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Safe Investments 
There is one Investment that performs well through all market conditions (including current crisis).
 
36 Consequtive Positive Months
 
The EEA Life Settlement Fund. Click Here for Factsheet and Here for the Fund brochure.