Financial Page International

7 November 2009 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
 
The US announced overnight that the unemployment rate has now not just trickled past 10%, but leapt from 9.8% to 10.2% - and US stockmarkets went UP!
 
Okay, let's avoid the nonsense that is happening in global stockmarkets this week and look a little closer at China, America and their relations of late - and potential effects this relationship strain may have on currencies.
 
But before I do, I will offer those of you here in Shanghai a 'hot investment tip'.  Quite simply, after you finish reading this, jump in your car (or probably your GL8) and tell your driver in the best Chinese you can sum up, "take me to Chuansha - and don't hold the horses".
 
You see, amongst the fields of farmland there, stands a great investment opportunity. Only Thursday, this was the site confirmed as the site for the new Disneyland China - 'Chisneyland' - and currently you could probably buy a whole 6 floor building for about the same amount of money that Warren Buffet earns in the time it is taking you to read this.
 
However, with Disney soon to be on its doorstep, your can bet your next dish of hairy crab that those prices are going to sky-rocket in the very near future - in fact, they have already started to go up!
 
I will cover this more in the China report below, but I thought I would mention it for those amongst you that are always screaming for a 'hot tip'.
 
Now on to my pet topic - America!
 
I always said that as long as the new Obama Administration leaves China alone, then the US will be okay for a while.  This week however, has seen yet another US complaint in the tit-for-tit game that Beijing and Washington seem to be playing.  
 
Here is list of major trade disputes between China and the US since Beijing's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001:

March 2002 - China China joins other countries in a complaint about safeguard measures imposed by the US that increases duties on steel imports
 
March 2004 - Complaint by the US - The US complains Chinese semiconductor producers pay less tax than their foreign competitors

March 2006 - Complaint by the US - The US and other countries complain that China has imposed measures including tariffs that adversely affect their auto parts exports

February 2007 - Complaint by the US - The US complains that China has granted tax refunds, reductions and exemptions for companies that buy domestic goods

April 2007 - Complaint by the US - The US lodges two cases with the WTO on intellectual property rights protection and market access for US movies, DVDs, books and music

September 2007 - Complaint by China - China  China files a complaint against US duties on glossy paper used in packaging

September 2007 - Complaint by the US - A US study says China's steel industry has benefited over the past 10 years from the "pervasive influence" of financial transfers from central and local government bodies, some of which are alleged to have broken WTO rules

March 2008 - Complaint by the US - The US complains about China's attempt to put the financial information business of international news providers under the control of local rival and regulator, Xinhua news agency

April 2009 - Complaint by China - China challenges a US law banning imports of processed Chinese poultry, saying the ban cannot be justified on health and safety grounds

June 2009 - Complaint by the US - The US and European Union complain that China grants raw materials to domestic manufacturers at below-market prices

August 2009 - Complaint by the US - Washington complains that Beijing breaks WTO rules by requiring all imported media products to be channelled through state-run distributors

September 2009 - Complaint by China - The US imposes emergency tariffs on Chinese tyres 

September 2009 - Complaint by the US - China launches anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into imports of US car parts and chicken products

October 2009 - Complaint by the US - The US Department of Commerce launches an investigation into the import of seamless steel pipes from China, which could lead to a 98.7 per cent duty to be imposed

October 2009 - Complaint by China -  The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issues a preliminary ruling against companies in the US and other countries, accusing them of dumping chemical fibres in China

November 2009 - Complaint by the US -  The US imposes preliminary anti-dumping duties of up to 99 per cent on Chinese imports of steel pipes, which surged 203 per cent between 2006 and 2008

So in effect, total score to date is China 5 complaints versus America's 11; what a bunch of whingers!
 
It appears that Mr Obama has decisively NOT learned from previous attempts of sabre-rattling with China and as you can see, many of those US complaints have come this year. 
 
Let's just hope China does not get fed up with this and start to do something about the vast sums of money owed by the US!  This may appear a little niaive to even think that China would retaliate in this way, but ...... this is indeed China!
 
The Group of 20 finance chiefs will likely push for Asian nations to allow their currencies to appreciate when they meet in Scotland this weekend, according to UBS AG, the world's second-largest foreign-exchange trader.

G-20 finance ministers and central bankers, including US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, started two days of talks Friday in St. Andrews, Scotland. While exchange rates won't be on the agenda, many nations will seek to bring it up.

China, the world's third largest economy, has prevented the yuan from appreciating since July 2008, after it strengthened 21% against the Dollar in the previous three years. Currency reserves have climbed about 20% in China, South Korea and Taiwan in the past year, a sign of Dollar purchases designed to stop stronger exchange-rates from hurting exports.

"The Eurozone will likely press hard on the topic, and Asia will once again be on the receiving end of complaints due to inflexibility in many of the region's currencies", said UBS. "According to the US Treasury, the US is also seeking to use the G-20 to push for a plan for global rebalancing.

The G-20 finance ministers' agenda involves measuring the effects of member nations' economic policies and proposing changes for their leaders, who meet in June. China and other Asian nations have accumulated dollars from widening trade surpluses, buying US Treasury debt and depressing global yields. Lower borrowing costs helped stoke the US housing and credit booms that turned to bust in 2007".

"If the G-20 succeeds in establishing a framework for global imbalance adjustments, investors can begin to look forward to gradual convergence in exchange rates towards fair value," UBS wrote. "However, with growth still at the top of the countries' individual agendas, realization of these goals may be many summits away."

The Brazilian Real has gained 36% against the Dollar this year, the South African rand 23%, the Canadian Dollar 14% and the Euro 6%. The RMB is little changed over that period and the South Korean Won gained 7.5%.

Brazil will propose the G-20 act to avoid overvaluation of the Brazilian, Australian, New Zealand and South African currencies against the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese RMB, Folha de Sao Paulo reported yesterday, citing Finance Minister Guido Mantega. Canada is also concerned about the rising value of its currency, UBS wrote.

The World Bank said this week "exchange-rate flexibility" will be critical to prevent asset bubbles in East Asian economies. Developing East Asia, which excludes Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and the Indian subcontinent, will expand 6.7% this year, more than an April estimate of 5.3%, the Washington-based bank said a Nov. 4 report. Growth may accelerate to 7.8% next year, it said.
 
An interesting couple of days in Scotland for sure!
 
On to the numbers on the boards this week:
US Markets 
How the US did this week .....
 US SummaryGains by General Electric, Starbucks and the world's biggest video games company, Activision Blizzard, helped Wall Street shrug off disappointing jobs data in choppy trading on Friday.

The S&P 500 spent less than 15 minutes in the red after October's non-farm payrolls report showed that the US unemployment rate had risen to 10.2% from 9.8% in September.

In spite of volatile trading, Wall Street has closed higher every day this week.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to 1,069.30 at 4pm in New York and added 3.2% this week after rising every day. The Dow added 17.46 points, or 0.2%, to 10,023.42. Oil fell 2.8% to $77.43 a barrel in New York. Gold jumped to a record $1,101.90 an ounce in New York, and 10-year Treasuries rose, sending yields down 0.03 percentage point to 3.50%.

A sell-off in the financial sector, both on Monday afternoon and late on Wednesday, weighed on the market but the S&P still managed to cling to positive territory.

Disappointing economic data also failed to shake the confidence of investors who remained focused on the gradual improvement in economic conditions.

Positive results from Cisco on Thursday added to a rally in technology stocks, giving the Nasdaq its biggest daily gain since July.

The industrials sector outperformed the market in early trading on Friday, led by General Electric shares that rose 6.9% to $15.43 after an upgrade from Bernstein.

A Bernstein upgrade also boosted shares in Amazon, the online retailer, lifting the stock 4.4% to $125.94.

Starbucks also encouraged investors, gaining 6.5% to $20.98 after the coffee chain posted higher-than-expected quarterly profits and raised its outlook for 2010.

The Seattle-based group has struggled to transform itself over the past year in the face of tougher competition, changing its product lines and slashing costs.

Activision Blizzard rose 4.1% to $11.32 after reporting higher quarterly revenue than analysts had been expecting.

The Californian group said strong sales of the "Guitar Hero" game helped to offset an industry-wide decline in video game software sales in the third quarter.

However, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the government-backed mortgage finance agencies, were some of the market's biggest casualties both on Friday and throughout the week.

After the market's close on Thursday, Fannie Mae said it would draw another $15bn of funds from the US Treasury after a ninth consecutive quarterly loss drove its net worth below zero. Its shares were down 8% at $1.03 on Friday and off 4.6% from last week.

Freddie Mac, which is also backed by the government, was down 4.8% to $1.19 and 3.3% lower on the week.

American International Group also weighed on the market on Friday.

The government-supported insurer reported its second successive quarterly profit after investment losses diminished.

But its shares dropped 9.6% to $35.51 after sales declines at its property-casualty operations, which include coverage of commercial buildings, corporate boards and aircraft, and life insurance divisions.
European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....
 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks rose for a third day, the longest stretch of gains in seven weeks, as a rally by banks overshadowed the highest US unemployment rate in 26 years.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 0.2% to 241.06, extending its first weekly gain in three weeks to 1.7%. US

National benchmark indexes advanced in 10 of the 18 western European markets. The UK's FTSE 100 added 0.3% and Germany's DAX rose 0.1%. France's CAC 40 slipped less than 0.1%.

GERMANY

German stocks extended their weekly advance as gains in Deutsche Lufthansa AG and carmakers helped offset a report that showed the highest US unemployment rate in 26 years.

The benchmark DAX Index added 0.1% to 5,488.25, having climbed 1.4% this week. The measure is up 50% from the lowest level this year on March 6 amid signs that government stimulus policies and record-low interest rates are helping to drag the global economy out of recession.

German factory orders rose for a seventh month in September as exports helped the recovery in Europe's largest economy to gather pace. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, advanced 0.9% from August, when they gained a revised 2.1%, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said Friday.

Lufthansa, Europe's second-largest airline, climbed 3% to 11.06 Euros as competitor British Airways Plc said declines in passenger traffic and ticket prices may have turned a corner. Deutsche Post AG, Europe's biggest postal service, increased 1.1% to 11.93 Euros.

Daimler AG climbed 1.7% to 33.21 Euros after the carmaker said sales at its Mercedes-Benz unit rose 7% in October to 88,400 vehicles. Volkswagen AG added 1.3% to 109.18 Euros. The company's Audi luxury-car division raised its sales goal for 2009, the Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper reported, citing board member Peter Schwarzenbauer.

Hannover Re added 3.1% to 32.28 Euro as Germany's second-largest reinsurer raised its full-year profit target. Third-quarter net income was 159 million Euros ($237 million), exceeding the median estimate of 148 million Euros in a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts.

Escada AG, the German luxury fashion maker that filed for insolvency in August, jumped 37% to 70 cents after saying the Mittal family trust agreed to buy its main assets.

Software AG, the country's second-largest software company, climbed 3.7% to 69.51 Euros as brokerages including Citigroup Inc., Commerzbank AG and UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking lifted their recommendations on the stock.

ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG rallied 7% to 7.66 Euros. Morgan Stanley lifted its share-price estimate for Germany's biggest private broadcaster 4.2% to 12.50 Euros and kept its "overweight" stance.

Symrise AG climbed 6.5% to 14.34 Euros, the biggest gain since May, as Commerzbank upgraded the maker of fragrances and cosmetic ingredients to "add" from "hold."

FRANCE

France's CAC 40 Index slipped 1.44, or less than 0.1%, to 3,707.29 in Paris, paring its gain this week to 2.8%. The index earlier rose as much as 0.5%. The SBF 120 Index increased less than 0.1% Friday.

Electricite de France slipped 1.22 Euros, or 3.2%, to 37 Euros, dropping for a second straight day. The company will likely miss its objective for "moderate organic growth" in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization this year because of nuclear outages, analysts at Exane BNP Paribas wrote in a report dated Thursday.

Hermes International added 1.98 Euros, or 2.1%, to 98.80, gaining for a second day this week. The maker of Birkin handbags reported a 10% increase in third- quarter revenue and said sales for the year may "slightly exceed" its forecast.

Lafarge SA tumbled 2.17 Euros, or 3.7%, to 55.82, after two days of gains. The world's biggest cement maker said third-quarter western European volumes fell 22% and North America volumes slipped 25%. The two regions accounted for about 48% of Lafarge's sales in 2008, Bloomberg data show.

Latecoere retreated 27 cents, or 3.9%, to 6.58 Euros, falling for a second day this week. The French supplier of aerospace components said third-quarter sales dropped 24% to 95.5 million Euros ($142 million). The company expects full-year sales to drop by 25%, with no sustained recovery in business before 2011.

L'Oreal lost 1.22 Euros, or 1.7%, to 70.08 after two days of gains. The world's largest cosmetics maker said third-quarter sales fell 0.7% from a year earlier to 4.23 billion Euros. The stock was cut to "hold" from "buy" at Societe Generale SA, which cited "slow" growth.

M6-Metropole Television jumped 1.15 Euros, or 6.6%, to 18.50, for the biggest gain since March. France's second-largest commercial television company said third-quarter revenue rose 9.2% to 296 million Euros.

BELGIUM

The Bel 20 in Brussels ended the trading week at 2,431.71, up 0.52% for the day.

Belgium-based supermarket operator Delhaize Group Thursday raised its full-year outlook after surpassing market hopes with a 28% surge in third-quarter net profit.

The company said sales had declined in the US due to a continuing price war among grocers, but it managed to offset the decline with cost cutting and said it had outperformed the market and grown volumes by using targeted promotions and price reductions and making sure its stores were as efficient as possible.

Delhaize makes about 70% of its profit and sales in the US, mostly in the south east where it operates the Food Lion, Hannaford and Sweet Bay chains.

Grocers have proved resilient during the economic downturn as consumers have kept spending on food, even if trading down to cheaper goods and stores. However, the US is now experiencing price deflation, stoking competition between retailers there.

"While price pressure in the US continued to impact sales, we were encouraged to see that targeted promotions and outstanding store execution resulted in improving volume trends for the third consecutive quarter," Chief Executive Pierre-Olivier Beckers said.

The company posted a third quarter net profit of Eur128 million, up from Eur100 million in the same period last year, beating analysts' expectations for a 10% rise to Eur110 million. Sales grew 4.8% on year to Eur4.9 billion, boosted by a 5.2% rise in the Dollar against the Euro compared with 2008. At identical exchange rates sales rose 1.9%

Like-for-like sales at its US stores dropped 1.3%, hit by the price war with the likes of discount giant Wal-mart Stores Inc. (WMT), while total sales fell 1.2% to Eur3.3 billion ($4.8 billion).

Delhaize's comments on US prices echo those of Netherlands-based peer Royal Ahold, which earns about 60% of its revenue in the US Late last month, Ahold reported a smaller-than-expected 4.3% rise in third-quarter sales, including a 1.9% rise in its key US chains, Stop & Shop and Giant-Landover and a 0.8% rise at the smaller Giant-Carlisle chain. It had blamed price deflation, trading down by customers and increased promotional activity in the US for missing expectations.

Belgian biomedical firm Tigenix may increase its capital to fund its expansion in regenerative medicine if market conditions are favourable for such a move.

The group, which develops cell-based medicinal products to treat damaged and diseased joints, recently won EU approval for its first product, ChrondroCelect, which helps to regrow cartilage.

ChrondroCelect is expected to start generating revenue from 2010.

"To finance its external growth, it might be necessary to raise additional financial means. Therefore, Tigenix does not rule out that the company will increase its capital if the market conditions are favourable," Tigenix said in a statement on Thursday.

It did not provide further details. Belgian newspaper De Tijd had earlier on Thursday cited observers as saying a capital increase of 15 million-25 million Euros ($22.1 million-36.9 million) was realistic for the company.

The paper also quoted Tigenix's chief executive, Gil BeYen, as saying that the company could manage with the 22 million Euros it has in cash.

THE NETHERLANDS

Amsterdam's AEX rounded out a mixed week on 307.14, a drop of 0.22% for the session.

Thursday, Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the consumer price index or CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year in October, faster than the 0.4% growth in the previous month. Economists expected an increase of 0.6%. A year earlier, the CPI was up 2.8%.

On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.1% in October, slower than the 0.5% growth in the preceding month. Economists were looking for a decline of 0.1%.

Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices or HICP rose 0.4% year-on-year in October, after a flat reading in September.

Dutch telecoms group KPN is considering the sale of its business-customer unit and fibre network in Belgium, Belgian daily De Tijd reported on Friday, citing several unidentified industry sources.

KPN declined to comment on the report.

KPN, which owns the smallest of Belgium's three mobile operators, BASE, is active in broadband through Tele2 Belgium, which it acquired in 2007 and recently rebranded to BASE.

A shortlist of potential buyers has been drawn up, the newspaper said, with sources citing Belgian cable company Telenet and corporate telecoms specialist Colt Telecoms as candidates.

Dominant Belgian telecoms operator Belgacom was not interested in acquiring the assets, De Tijd said.

Anglo-Dutch consumer-products giant Unliever reported a 36% fall in third-quarter net profit on Thursday, but a measure of revenue rose for the maker of Ben & Jerry's ice cream as strong volume growth offset price cuts.

Unilever said profit fell to 1.05 billion Euros ($1.56 billion), or 36 Euro cents a diluted share, from 1.6 billion Euros, or 57 Eurocents.

Revenue slipped 2% to 10.2 billion Euros.

Unilever said earnings fell more quickly than sales due to disposals of businesses last year. Excluding restructuring, disposals and other one-off items, Unilever would have earned 43 cents a share.

Analysts polled by Capital IQ had expected adjusted earnings of 40.2 cents on revenue of 10.39 billion Euros.

Gross-profit margin widened 2.9 percentage points as the company operated more efficiently and cut costs.

The company saw underlying sales growth of 3.4% during the period, faster than the 3% analysts had estimated, as a volume rise of 3.6% offset falling prices. Underlying sales strips out asset sales and currency changes.

AUSTRIA

The ATX in Vienna closed out Friday and the week at 2,561.12, down 0.02%.

World No.1 brickmaker Wienerberger missed forecasts for third-quarter core earnings and forecast full-year results would also fall short as business in emerging Europe and the United States shows no signs of a pickup.

Wienerberger, highly geared to the contracting residential construction market, said third-quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped 40% to 76.9 million Euros ($114 million).

It took the biggest hit in central and eastern Europe, where EBITDA almost halved, and in the United States, where it turned negative. Analysts had on average expected a 35% fall in EBITDA.

"Although volume declines were more moderate during the summer, September remained below expectations - especially in the USA and Eastern Europe," new Chief Executive Heimo Scheuch said in a statement.

"There are no signs that the downturn in the operating business will soon bottom out," he said.

Scheuch, who is cutting costs and closing factories, and raised fresh cash in a rights issue in September to reduce Wienerberger's leverage, said EBITDA in the second half would be on roughly the same level as the first half of the year.

This implies full-year EBITDA of around 200 million Euros -- much less than the 240 million Euros average estimate according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

"I do not expect any significant improvement in earnings by year-end 2009," Scheuch said in a statement. "It is too early to speak of recovery from Friday's perspective because the economic environment is still difficult."

Wienerberger has suffered the full force of the housing collapse, especially in Britain, where Scheuch said business was improving in the United States and emerging Europe.

Austria's Finance Minister Wednesday expressed deep regret at the decision by General Motors Co. to keep its European unit Adam Opel GmbH, and urged the US carmaker not to delay a restructuring further in order to protect local plants and jobs.

"All involved are now expecting a presentation soon of a sustainable future plan for Opel, and that GM puts an end to the poker game over the financing of measures at local Opel production sites," Finance Minister Reinhold Mitterlehner said in a statement.

"Anything less would be a risky game at the cost of Opel's employees and the European economy," Mitterlehner said, adding that further delays in presenting a restructuring plan could lead to "problems for several production sites in Europe".

Following months of negotiations, GM reneged on a tentative plan to sell a stake in Opel to a consortium led by Magna International Inc. (MGA).

Reinhold Mitterlehner Wednesday said GM is eligible to apply for a state- guaranteed credit to aid efforts to maintain Opel's Austria-based production plant.

The minister had previously pledged that the government would support measures to protect the local Opel production under Magna's restructuring plan.

Austrian high-tech machinery maker Andritz Friday said its third-quarter 2009 net profit fell 24%, due mainly to weaker business in its pulp-and-paper and metals business.

Andritz reiterated it expects full-year sales to fall by 15%, and net profit "to decrease in comparison to 2008."

Andritz's net profit came to Eur27.1 million in the quarter, down from Eur35.6 million in the year-earlier period, hampered by weaker demand amid the global economic crisis.

Overall sales fell 15% in the quarter, to Eur756.1 million from Eur888.9 million, with a 34% drop in sales in its pulp and paper segment and a 25% decrease in metals segment sales, it said.

However, Andritz's hydropower equipment and plant producing division managed to increase sales by 9.3%, to Eur337 million in the period, Andritz said.

SWITZERLAND

Zurich's SMI finished the week on 6,293.61, uo 0.13% Friday.

Adecco, the temporary staffing agency, climbed 8.2% to SFr49.78 after the Switzerland-based company reported a pick-up in demand for blue-collar workers in key markets.

Swiss bank UBS AG has been fined 8 million Pounds ($13.3 million) for management failures which allowed employees to make unauthorized trades with customers' accounts, Britain's financial regulator said Thursday.

The fine is the third-largest ever imposed by the Financial Services Authority.

Margaret Cole, the regulator's director of enforcement and financial crime said the fine included a 20% discount from the maximum because UBS  cooperated at an early stage.

Four employees and at least 39 accounts in UBS' London-based wealth management business were involved in the unauthorized transactions in 2006 and 2007.

"These employees were able to take advantage of UBS' inadequate systems and controls, giving them free rein to make unauthorized trades with customer money that they were then able to conceal," said Cole.

UBS has paid more than $42 million compensation to the wealthy customers who were affected.

The FSA and UBS both declined to say whether the employees faced prosecution, nor would they comment on the motive for the activity.

However, the FSA suggested that UBS management's emphasis on performance in determining employees' earnings was a factor.

"UBS was undergoing a period of substantial growth in relation to its international wealth management business and accordingly, financial performance of employees was a material factor in assessing their remuneration, in particular discretionary annual bonuses for desk heads and client advisers," the FSA said.

A whistle-blower brought the bank's attention to a proposed transfer of a customer's funds to the personal account of the head of a desk in the division.

"Upon further investigation, it was discovered that UBS employees had taken part in the trading of foreign exchange and precious metals using customer money without authorization and allocated losses to customers' accounts," the FSA said.

It added that as many as 50 unauthorized transactions a day were taking place at the operation's peak in 2006 and that weaknesses in controls allowed the employees to allocate losses to customer accounts.

The agency said UBS relied too much on employees' honesty, and that it failed to manage and control key risks, carry out effective remedies and provide adequate supervision.

Switzerland consumer confidence indicator increased to minus 14 in the fourth quarter from minus 39 in the third quarter, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs or SECO said on Thursday. The confidence indicator in the third quarter was revised from minus 42 reported initially. Economists expected the index to be minus 38.

The improvement in consumer sentiment was mainly due to a more optimistic assessment of the expected economic situation and anticipation of a less pronounced rise in unemployment in the next twelve months, the SECO said.

Switzerland's jobless rate stood at 4% in October, up from 3.9% in the prior month, a report released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs showed Friday. The rate matched economists expectations. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted rate remained stable at 4.1% in October.

The number of unemployed persons in October increased by 3,729 to 158,138. Compared to the same month of last year, unemployment rose 57,667. According to SECO, around 217,972 job seekers were registered, up 5,070 from the prior month.

SWEDEN

The OMX in Stockholm closed out the trading session Friday on 941.48, down 0.29%.

The Swedish Riksbank's plan to keep interest rates at a record low for a further year risks fueling a house price bubble in the largest Nordic economy, some policy makers and economists warned.

The world's oldest central bank proposes keeping its key interest rate at a record-low 0.25% until autumn 2010 to spur consumer prices after half a year of deflation. Governor Stefan Ingvestold lawmakers Friday "the responsibility for sustainable growth with regard to lending and house prices is largely beyond the Riksbank's control."

That is encouraging Swedes to exploit the European Union's lowest borrowing costs to take on bigger mortgages. Homes in greater Stockholm are back at last year's peak, mortgage lender SBAB estimates, adding to the "risk that a bubble will build up and eventually burst," Riksbank First Deputy Governor Svante Oeberg warned at the meeting. Even so, the bank wants to keep rates "low for a long period of time," it said last month.

The Riksbank's comments have persuaded households they can rely on low borrowing costs, with 66.9% of all new loans in September based on floating rates, compared with 41.6% two years earlier, Statistics Sweden estimates.

House prices rose 3% in the three months through September from the previous quarter, the statistics office said on Oct. 14. Prices in the greater Stockholm area may increase 5% this quarter and 2% next quarter, SBAB forecasts.

Finance Minister Anders Borg said Thursday the housing market poses a "serious" potential risk to the economy in the "medium term," adding that policy makers need to monitor "very, very carefully" the situation on the housing market.

Norway's central bank on Oct. 28 became the first in Europe to raise rates a month after Governor Svein Gjedrem warned asset prices "have risen sharply and probably excessively." The bank raised the key rate a quarter point to 1.5%.

At the Federal Reserve, officials under Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are reviewing whether gains in asset prices and narrowing credit spreads are justified as they try to ensure near-zero borrowing costs don't generate bubbles.

House prices are rising even as Sweden struggles to recover from its deepest recession in seven decades. The economy will contract 4.6% this year, the Riksbank forecasts, a deeper slump than in neighboring Norway and Denmark.

The rise in house prices recalls the 1990s asset bubble that sparked a banking crisis. The government intervened with capital injections and by nationalizing two lenders.

Ingves, who was a key figure in dragging Sweden out of that crisis, will have to signal faster rate increases to avert a second bubble, according to Nordea AB, the biggest Nordic bank.

House prices have risen even as joblessness goes up and unemployment may reach 10.3% next year, the central bank estimates.

Household debt may rise to 200% of disposable income by 2011, compared with 160% Friday, failing a policy shift.

The Riksbank last month said there are signs house prices "are somewhat higher than the level that would be sustainable in the long term" and warned banks to ensure lending policies don't fuel property prices.

Ingves has brushed off concerns his policy may be to blame, saying on Oct. 22 that "interest rates will eventually rise" and that that "will make it more expensive to own a house and it will also affect what happens on the housing market."

The governor said in Friday's speech that "in the long-term it is hardly sustainable that house prices should continue to rise as quickly as they have done since the mid-1990s, but in the shorter-term, our assessment is that there is no reason for the Riksbank to give greater consideration to house prices than we already do in our forecasts for the economy."

While Ingves said the Riksbank would be willing to hold discussions with other authorities about the Swedish housing market, for example about making it mandatory for households to amortize on their loans or lower the percentage of the price of a property people can borrow from banks, those are "measures that have to be handled somewhere else" than at the Riksbank.

A 10% decline in house prices, given current lending conditions, would leave one in five apartment owners and one in ten house owners with debt that exceeds their equity, the National Housing Credit Guarantee Board estimates.

Swedish central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 19.6 billion in October, reversing from a surplus of SEK 163 million last year, the Debt Office said Friday. The deficit in October was more than the the Debt Office's forecast of a SEK 14.3 billion deficit.

The difference is explained by displacements of payments between months within the Debt Office's net lending and will thus not affect the annual outcome, the official report said.

The Debt Office's net lending was SEK 9 billion higher than calculated. The main explanation is on-lending to the Riksbank of SEK 5 billion. This on-lending is temporary and is due to refinancing of maturing loans. The new loans that the Debt Office has taken on behalf of the Riksbank do not have the same payment dates as the maturing loans. Since the payments are carried out on different months this will have the opposite effect in November. Also other differences within the Debt Office's net lending are mainly of temporary nature.

Disbursements from authorities were SEK 4 billion lower than calculated. Tax payments developed in line with forecast. Interest payments on central government debt were SEK 1.6 billion, which is SEK 0.1 billion lower than calculated.

For the twelve-month period up to the end of October, central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 178 billion. Central government debt amounted to SEK 1,110 billion at the end of October.

Sweden's unemployment rate stood at 8.1% in the third quarter, up from 5.7% in the same period of the previous year. During the quarter, 399,000 persons aged between 15 and 74 years were unemployed. The unemployment rate among males stood at 8.4%, while it was 7.7% among females.

In the third quarter, the total number of people not at work increased by 84,000 from the previous year to total 3.63 million. This value incorporates employed persons who are absent during the reference week, unemployed persons and persons outside the labor force.

At the same time, the number of people outside the labor force increased by 85,000 from a year ago to total 2.02 million.

DENMARK

Copenhagen had a mixed week too, rounding off Friday on 328.55, a dip of 0.36% for the day.

Danish pharmaceutical company Genmab said Thursday it will cut around 300 jobs, sell its US-based manufacturing facility and reorganize its business in order to "match resources to ongoing and future needs".

As a result of the plans, Genmab cut its full-year guidance, taking into account restructuring costs as well as savings from the reorganization.

It said it now expects an operating loss of 1.16 billion Danish kroner ($232 million), compared to its previous full-year guidance for a DKK650 million loss.

The company's shares fell sharply on the news, and at one point were trading down 14% at DKK110.75.

Friday, the Statistics Denmark announced that the industrial production dropped 1.1% month-on-month in September, compared to the 0.9% fall in the previous month. At the same time, the industrial sales of own goods and services fell 1.5%.

For the July to September period, industrial production fell 1.5% compared to the previous three months period.

Meanwhile, industrial new orders climbed 43% on a monthly basis in September.

Thursday, the Danish central bank agreed to lend Eur 1.95 billion or US$ 2.9 billion to the International Monetary Fund in order to boost its lending capacity on the back of the global crisis.

The IMF and the Danmarks Nationalbank, the Danish central bank, signed the borrowing agreement, as part of the commitment made by the European Union in March 2009 to contribute upto Eur 75 billion to the Fund, to increase the lender's capacity. In September, the EU committed to provide an additional Eur 50 billion to the Fund.

Denmark's manufacturing activity increased in October, the purchase and logistics lobby DILF said on Monday.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index or PMI rose to 48.5 in October from 37.4 in September. The reading was the highest level since July when the index was at 48.7.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

Denmark's foreign exchange reserves fell by 17.8 billion crowns to 376.1 billion Danish crowns ($73.96 billion) in October against economists' expectation of no change, central bank data showed on Tuesday.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had estimated that the reserves remained unchanged in October at the September level of 393.8 billion crowns, according to the median of five forecasts.

Analysts said the drop in the forex reserves -- the first decrease in the monthly figure since October 2008 -- indicated that the central bank's interest rate cuts have curbed inflows into the Danish currency.

The central bank said it had sold foreign currency in the month for a net 0.1 billion crowns and the central government repaid foreign loans worth 17.7 billion.

Changes in the foreign reserves can signal that the central bank has been stabilising the crown or indicate that the bank may change its key interest rates.

'In October, Denmark's Nationalbank has not intervened in the foreign exchange market,' the central bank said.

European Union member but Euro zone outsider Denmark's policy of holding the crown steady against the Euro means that the central bank shifts interest rates for the sole purpose of keeping the crown around its central parity of 7.46038 per Euro .

Denmark's forex reserves climbed steeply from the late 2008 until September this year as interest rate spreads between Denmark and the Euro zone initially widened in the financial and economic crisis, making crown investments attractive.

But the spread to the Euro zone has narrowed, with Denmark's policy rate now just a quarter point above the Euro zone's 1% after 10 Danish rate cuts lopped 4.25 percentage points off the Danish central bank's lending rate since November 2008.

Market interest rate spreads remain wider than the gap between official rates, but have also narrowed.

FINLAND

Helsinki's OMX finished the week at 6,077.70, up 0.51% for the session.

Finnish engineering firm Metso launched a 177 million Euro ($261 million) bid for smaller rival Tamfelt on Thursday, seeking to bolster its services business.

"The combination will strengthen Metso's services business especially in the pulp and paper industry," Metso said in statement.

"For Tamfelt, the combination creates new growth opportunities especially outside Europe, where Metso has an extensive installed base and wide sales and services network," it said.

Metso said it was offering Tamfelt shareholders 3 new shares for every 10 Tamfelt shares, plus 0.35 Euros cash for some 400,000 outstanding stock options, valuing Tamfelt at around 177 million Euros total.

Metso said the deal, which requires regulatory approval in Finland "and some other countries", should close in the first quarter of 2010 at the latest.

It said the purchase should boost services business sales by some 140 million Euros annually.

Metso said Tamfelt's board has backed the bid, with 35.6% of shareholders having agreed to the offer. The offer will open on Nov 23 and is expected to close around Dec 18.

The outlook for Finnish firms has brightened slightly but companies expect no rapid return to growth, the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK) said in its latest quarterly barometer.

It said its business outlook indicator rose to minus six points in October from minus eight points in July.

'The weak stage of the cycle is expected to continue into the first half of next year,' EK said in a statement.

'Although the market situation is in fact expected to stabilise gradually, there are no expectations of a rapid recovery and return to growth,' it said.

EK said outlooks varied by sector. In the forest and chemical industry and in information and communication services, the weak market situation was expected to improve somewhat.

It said the technology industry predicts a weak economy far into next year. In construction, while the worst of the recession seems to be over, upcoming months are still expected to remain bleak due to seasonal factors.

Finland's economy is seen growing around two% per year once it stabilises after the global financial crisis, the finance minister said on Tuesday.

'We estimate that Finnish economic growth in a normal cycle will be around two%,' Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen said, speaking at a seminar on taxation.

The Nordic country has forecast gross domestic product will shrink 6% this year, as ailing demand saps sectors ranging from electronics to pulp and paper to steel, but grow by an anaemic 0.3% in 2010.

Finland, taking on 13 billion Euros ($19.02 billion) in new debt next year, has warned stimulus spending will weigh on government finances.

'The spiral of indebtedness is so strong ... the debt curve needs to be turned around quickly,' Katainen said, adding if the crisis took the shape of a 'W', there would be no room for extra stimulus.

Finland's national output dropped a working day adjusted 8.4% in August, after a 8.9% fall in July, revised upwards from a 9.2% decline reported initially, the Statistics Finland said Friday. On an annual basis, the national output has been declining continuously since October last year.

During the month, secondary output fell 17% annually, while services output declined 6%.However, primary output rose 2%. Primary output includes agriculture, forestry and fishing, while secondary output includes manufacturing and construction.

Seasonally adjusted, the output dropped 0.5% month-on-month in August.

NORWAY

The OBX in Oslo ended a volatile week at 302.56, a drop of 0.80% for the day.

Norwegian newsprint maker Norske Skog said Thursday its losses narrowed by 63% in the third quarter, helped by cost reductions and currency gains.

The better-than-expected result - as well news that its cost-cutting measures are going according to plan - saw the company's shares soar, closing up 13.7% to 10.4 kroner ($1.83) on the Oslo Stock Exchange.

The company posted a net loss of 438 million kroner ($76.5 million) for the July through September period, compared with a loss of 1.2 billion kroner in the same period of 2008.

Revenues dropped to 5 billion kroner ($881.1 million) from 6.3 billion kroner.

The company said the sale of its share in a Shanghai mill and the decision to "indefinitely idle" a Dutch plant helped its result. In addition, a strong krone value throughout the quarter resulted in significant currency gains.

"The sharp fall in demand has leveled off, but the market remains challenging," said Chief Executive Officer Christian Rynning-Toennesen.

Norwegian oil service company TTS Marine said Friday that it slipped to a net loss of NOK180m in the first nine months of 2009 from a profit of NOK77.6m a year earlier.

TTS Marine's financial results were influenced by bankruptcies among its customers and cancellation of contracts.

Write-downs of goodwill of NOK100m and additional development cost of NOK40m weakened the results even further, the company said.

Due to changed market conditions, TTS Marine has started an extensive project to adjust organisation and costs to a lower level of activity, it said.

Turnover fell to NOK2.915bn from NOK2.947bon. Operating loss was NOK149.6m compared to an operating profit of NOK147.4m. TTS Marine slipped to a pretax loss of NOK209m from a profit of NOK103m.

Diluted loss per share stood at NOK5.11 versus EPS of NOK3.01.

Norway's biggest industry group warned the Krone's 6.8% advance against the Euro since July is eroding profits at manufacturers like Norsk Hydro ASA, Europe's second-largest aluminum producer, and says further gains will create "big problems" for the export-reliant economy.

"Norwegian industries may have the worst time ahead of them," the Confederation of Norwegian Business and Industry, said in a telephone interview on Nov. 3. "Large parts of the manufacturing sector are sailing into very big problems at the moment." The group represents about 19,800 companies employing around 500,000 people.

The world's sixth-biggest oil exporter suffered a milder recession than most industrialized economies thanks to its petroleum industry, allowing the central bank last week to become the first in Europe to reverse an easing cycle. At the same time, Norges Bank Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad has said the bank must pace rate increases to spur a recovery in domestic demand without boosting the Krone and hurting exporters.

Qvigstad said in a Nov. 4 interview it's "most probable" the bank will raise its key rate, now 1.5%, no higher than 1.75% by the end of March, compared with a target range as high as 2.25% in the same period.

"A marked increase in the interest rate and a wider interest rate differential between Norway and other countries may entail a risk of a stronger-than-projected Krone," Qvigstad said in a speech in Fredrikstad. "This would indicate that the interest rate should not be raised too rapidly."

The currency of the world's second-biggest natural gas exporter has been the third-best performer against the Euro of the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg since the end of June, after the Brazilian real and Australian Dollar.

That's hurt companies such as Oslo-based Norsk Hydro, which supplies the automotive and building industries. For every Krone the Norwegian currency strengthens against the Dollar, based on an exchange rate of 5.5 Kroner, Norsk Hydro's earnings before interest and tax would be cut by 1.6 billion Kroner ($282 million), according to its third-quarter presentation.

The Krone has strengthened from 6.4311 against the Dollar on June 30, compared with as weak as 5.6555 Thursday.

"A weak Dollar and a strong Norwegian Krone is not a positive situation for us and of course we are concerned if this will continue," Erik Brynhildsbakken, a spokesman for Hydro, said in a Nov. 4 interview. "For globally exposed industries such as aluminum, we are still in the middle of the storm. The financial crisis for us is not over."

Norske Skogindustrier ASA, the biggest Norwegian newsprint maker, said Thursday that the strong Krone hurt earnings last quarter. Dag Opedal, chief executive officer at Orkla ASA, a consumer goods and industrial products firm, told Dagens Naeringsliv last week a "strong Krone" and a "high cost level" will hurt industry in coming years.

The Krone is a problem for Norske Skog and all export- related companies from Norway that have production in Norway.

Industry Minister Trond Giske in a Nov. 2 interview warned the government must contain budget spending to avoid fueling higher interest rates that would strengthen the Krone and hurt exporters.

Norway's central bank isn't the only regulator facing divergent needs pulling policy in opposite directions. In Sweden, Governor Stefan Ingves is trying to tailor policy to fix half a year of deflation without fueling what Riksbank board members have warned may develop into a housing bubble.

Norges Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem is also signaling a possible scaling back of the pace of increases, and has said the strong Krone can be a "headache."

"The Krone is hurting. Absolutely," the Confederation of Norwegian Business and Industry said. "Many Norwegian businesses are telling us they are almost pulling out of certain markets" after becoming unprofitable. The UK and Sweden, two of Norway's most important trading partners, are "extremely difficult."

While the government expects the non-oil economy to grow 2.1% next year, exports, which make up almost half of output, will grow 0.1%.

"There is a two-tier economy," the Confederation of Norwegian Business and Industry said. "The sector competing on the export markets are doing quite badly, while some of the more sheltered industries and the public sector are growing strongly."

Norway's manufacturing industry contracted for a third month in October as orders and production slumped compared with the previous month, Fokus Bank, which compiles the purchasing managers' index, said on Nov. 3. This compares with a fifth month of growth for manufacturing in neighboring Sweden.

Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's coalition government has pledged to increase spending next year after already using a record amount of the country's $450 billion oil wealth on stimulus measures this year. Economists say an expansionary budget may lead to a tighter monetary policy which could trigger a strengthening in the currency.

"If they keep on increasing interest rates that would lead to an upward push on the Norwegian Krone, which is a big concern," the CNBI said.

Policy makers meet on Dec. 16 to decide on borrowing costs.

SPAIN

Madrid's IBEV finished the day Friday at 11,580.60, gains of 0.27% on the session.

Polymer Group Friday announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire the Barcelona, Spain-based Tesalca-Texnovo nonwovens businesses from Grupo Corinpa, S.L. in a two-phase process. The purchase is expected to close by the end of November, subject to customary closing conditions.

Thursday, Spain's National Institute of Statistics announced that the industrial production dropped a calendar adjusted 12.5% year-on-year in September, compared to a 12.7% fall in the previous month, revised from 13.1% decline reported initially. Economists were looking for a decline of 13.3%.

Manufacturing production fell 13.3% on an annual basis in September, while mining and quarrying production slipped 14.1%.

On an unadjusted basis, industrial production declined 12.5% year-on-year in September, after falling 10.6% in August.

Tuesday, the Ministry of Employment and Immigration of Spain announced that unemployment rose 2.6% month-on-month in October.

The number of unemployed increased 98,906 to 3.80 million in October. Compared to the previous year, it was an increase of 990,327. Male unemployment rose 2.8% and female unemployment grew 2.4%.

Monday, Markit Economics announced that the Spain Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index stood at a seasonally adjusted 46.3 in October, up from 45.8 in September. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction.

Manufacturing output declined modestly as the recession in Spain continued to have an adverse impact on demand. Production has now contracted in twenty of the last twenty-one months. New orders continued to fall and also at their fastest pace since May, with new foreign orders decreasing for the twenty-third consecutive month. Backlogs of work also declined and at an accelerated rate.

Employment levels in the manufacturing sector declined for the twenty-sixth straight month as a result of lower workloads. The stabilization of unemployment in the third quarter signaled by official figures is likely to be only temporary with PMI data continuing to show considerable falls in employment in the manufacturing sector as firms seek cost cuts.

PORTUGAL

The PSI General in Lisbon closed out the week at 2,878.08, down 0.03% for the session.

Fernando Teles, CEO of Angolan bank Banco Internacional de Credito (BIC, expressed interest Thursday in the privatization process of nationalized Portuguese bank Banco Portugues de Negocios (BPN).

Teles told Reuters his bank, Angola's fourth biggest, was not the only bank in Angola interested in the privatization of BPN.

Portuguese State Secretary for the Treasury and Finances said this week that BPN's privatization would be approved at "very short notice."

BIC, with a "twin" bank in Portugal led by Mira Amaral, is owned by industrialist Americo Amorim and Isabel dos Santos, daughter of Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos. Each as a 25% stake. Fernando Teles has a 20% shareholding with the other 20% held by small investors.

BIC is also interested in floating shares on stock markets in London, Johannesburg or Luanda, said Teles.

Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates says it would be a grave error to withdraw the economic stimulus packages in place to help steady the economy following the financial crisis.

The Socialist prime minister has been outlining his government's economic programme as he begins a second term following his election victory at the end of September.

"Let's move on priority areas: the TGV between Lisbon and Madrid and Lisbon Porto-Figo. We need to launch the new airport south of Lisbon and get on with the National Road plan," he said.

Socrates added that it is the "state's duty" to assist with unemployment in Portugal running at a 30-year high.

Opposition leader Manuela Ferreira Leite is concerned that the country's debt burden is already "unsustainable."

Speaking in parliament she said:

"We are looking at the government program with the same suspicion we looked at their manifesto, because it was designed to win votes and not be implemented."

Portugal earmarked 2.2 billion Euros at the end of last year to help weather the financial storm.

The government lost its overall majority in the recent election, meaning it will have to negotiate the passage of bills and reforms with the opposition.

ITALY

Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB Index retreated for the first time in three days, losing 32.60, or 0.1%, to 22,549.64 in Milan. The gauge rose 2.2% this week.

Banco Popolare added 19.5 cents, or 3.4%, to 6.02 Euros. Bank stocks were the second-best performers in Europe Friday. "This, coupled with the stock's recent decline helped the shares Friday," said Alessandro Frigerio, a fund manager at RMJ Sgr in Milan. He noted that in the last few trading sessions Banco Popolare's 14-day relative strength index, or RSI, got near the level of 30 that some traders use as a trigger to buy.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena gained 1.7 cents, or 1.3%, to 1.3 Euros. Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl (PMI IM) added 9 cents, or 1.8%, to 5.16 Euros. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Ltd reiterated an "outperform" rating, citing "a cheap valuation" and "improving asset quality trends."

Bulgari, the world's third-largest jeweler, fell 10.5 cents, or 1.8%, to 5.68 Euros. Credit Suisse Group AG reiterated an "underperform" rating on the stock ahead of third-quarter results, saying that "significant top and bottom line recovery seems already priced in the shares."

Buzzi Unicem, Italy's second-biggest cement maker, lost 28 cents, or 2.4%, to 11.57 Euros, ending a two-day gain after Wienerberger AG, the world's biggest brickmaker, reported a third-quarter net loss, and Lafarge SA, the world's biggest cement maker, lowered its estimates for cement sales this year.

Fiat dropped 16 cents, or 1.5%, to 10.62 Euros. The Italian carmaker said it will consider selling shares in its auto making unit. "We'll talk about it when it's the right time, it's not now," Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne said after a speech in Zurich Friday.

Indesit rose 18.5 cents, or 2.3%, to 8.29 Euros. Banca Imi increased its price estimate on Italy's biggest home-appliance maker to 8.7 Euros from 4.6 Euros. The brokerage reiterated a "hold" rating.

Pirelli lost 0.5 cents, or 1.2%, to 40.6 cents, ending a two-day increase. Intermonte Sim SpA lowered its recommendation on the tiremaker to "outperform" from "buy," citing the stock's recent performance.

Prysmian added 67 cents, or 5.5%, to 12.82 Euros. Exane BNP Paribas lifted its recommendation to "neutral" from "underperform." Prysmian expects a "strong" fourth quarter as orders rise at its subsea cable division, the company's chief financial officer said in an interview.

Telecom Italia retreated 2.4 cents, or 2.1%, to 1.12 Euros. BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research lowered its price estimate on ordinary shares of Italy's biggest phone company to 1.1 Euros from 1.15 Euros. The brokerage kept an "underperform" rating. Bank of America also trimmed its price projection on the savings shares to 1 Euro from 1.05 Euros while keeping a "buy" recommendation. The savings shares lost 0.5 cents, or 0.6%, to 79.6 cents.

GREECE

Athens' Athex Composite ended the day and the week at 2,701.42, a gain of 0.67% for the day.

Greece's new government pledged in its 2010 draft budget on Thursday to save the country from bankruptcy by cutting the deficit while keeping electoral promises to help the poor amid the economic crisis.

Greece forecast its public debt will explode to 120.8% of GDP next year, making it the Euro zone's most indebted country, while it would be one of just three Euro members to remain stuck in recession, according to EU data.

'We need to save the country from bankruptcy,' Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou, who won an Oct. 4 election, told a televised cabinet meeting. 'We can get out of the crisis.'

Greece aims to reduce its budget deficit by more than 3 percentage points to 9.4% of GDP next year with a mix of spending cuts, crackdown on tax evasion and increased taxes on tobacco, alcohol and real estate. But the ratio will still be over three times the 3% ceiling set for Euro members.

Analysts said the deficit reduction target was ambitious and it would be difficult to cut spending while increasing social support.

Social support measures to help kickstart the economy include one-off solidarity benefits to low income earners and above-inflation wage and pension increases for state workers.

'It is a budget for Greek economy's growth, it is a budget of redistributing (wealth) and it is a budget of tidying up,' Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said.

The government said the draft budget would aim at re-establishing the confidence of the EU and investors in the Greek economy, after setting this year's deficit forecast at more than double than the previous government's projection.

Fitch downgraded Greece's debt to A- with a negative outlook last month. Moody's put Greece on review for possible downgrade.

Neither the 10-year Greek debt yield spread nor five-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) moved after the comments, according to Reuters data and CDS monitor CMA DataVision. The debt yield spread was steady at 138 bps.

The budget shortfall will narrow to 9.4% of GDP in 2010 from 12.7% this year, Papaconstantinou said. The economy will drop by 0.3%, albeit at a slower pace, after falling into recession this year for the first time since 1993 with GDP down by 1.5%.

'The dynamics of the public debt is a bomb on the foundation of the Greek economy,' Papaconstantinou said.

The government declined to say how much Greece would need to borrow next year, saying more details will be given in the final budget proposal on Nov 21.

Greek manufacturing activity decreased marginally in October, signaling a further deterioration in manufacturing economy, a report from the Markit Economics said on Monday.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index or PMI dropped to 48 in October from 48.5 in September.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

Manufacturing output contracted in October, which showed an another slight decrease in new business.
The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsLondon equity trading closed on a high on Friday as stocks regained their poise following a dip lower after weak US economic data earlier in the session.

On Friday the FTSE finished 17 points higher at 5,142.72, a rise of 0.3%. This meant the index notched up its best weekly gain in a month of nearly 2%.

The gains came after the benchmark index fell to a session low of 5,077.86 in the immediate aftermath of the release a weaker-than-expected US jobs report.

But those losses proved short-lived as the prospect that global central banks would keep monetary policy accommodative continued to support investor risk appetite and demand for equities.

British Airways reported an interim pre-tax interim loss of £292m, down from a profit of £52m in the same period a year ago as passenger numbers fell 2.6%. But the numbers were in line with forecasts, helping the stock rise 6.7% to 199p.

Royal Bank of Scotland reported a third-quarter pre-tax loss of £2.17bn, around the same levels seen in the previous quarter when the part-nationalised lender lost £2.2bn. Impairment charges on bad loans remained high, but fell 30% quarter on quarter and were "plateauing" around levels seen in the first quarter. The shares rose 5.3% to 37.3p, but concern about the health of the company lingered.

Rentokil Initial, the support services specialist fell 6.3% to 105p after hopes it would raise guidance for the full year failed to materialise. The company's shares enjoyed a strong run in advance of its third quarter numbers, which showed a 3.2% fall in revenue of £622.6m at constant exchange rates.

Allied Irish Banks Plc jumped 9.2% to 1.92 Euros after the lender said it sold a five-year bond not covered by the government guarantee, and the latest stage of Ireland's National Asset Management Agency legislation was passed by lawmakers. Bank of Ireland Plc increased 4.2% to 1.99 Euros in Dublin.

Great Portland Estates Plc led gains by real estate companies, climbing 4.4% to 259.7 pence. JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded the shares to "overweight" from "neutral," citing an "attractive valuation" and a 15% drop in the share price since its peak in September. The company reports half-year results next week.
Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN

Tokyo stocks rose Friday as overnight Wall Street strength triggered short covering in some major exporter shares, but the index remained top heavy amid concerns that hedge funds may start liquidating long positions next week.

More quarterly earnings reports following Thursday's market close from such blue chips such as Nikon Corp. (7731.TO) and Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) punctuated trading action, along with a sizable new equity issue plan from NEC Corp.(6701.TO).

Traders said Friday's market upside was capped by funds' moves to meet clients' cancellation requests before December book-closings. But with overseas markets picking up and corporate earnings fundamentals gradually improving, traders say a sharp downturn is unlikely.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 71.91 points, or 0.7%, to 9,789.35. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues fell 0.95 point, or 0.1%, to 874.01, with only 11 of 33 subindexes closing in positive territory.

Trading volume was moderate at just under 1.9 billion shares.

For the holiday-shortened week, the Nikkei lost 2.4%, but remains up 13% for the year to date.

Electrical appliance and precision instrument makers made sizable gains on short covering and outright buying, with Hitachi gaining 5.6% to Y304, and Nikon adding 0.7% to Y1,656. Nikon said after the Thursday market close that its net income for the July-September quarter slid to a Y13.7 billion loss from a Y15.7 billion profit in the corresponding period a year earlier. But it maintained its earnings guidance for the current fiscal year of a net loss of Y21 billion.

Toyota shares ended down 1.7% at Y3,520, however, after Thursday reporting better-than-expected earnings for the quarter ending in September and lifting its view for the full fiscal year.

Computer and network equipment manufacturer NEC became the latest Japanese firm to tap the equity capital market, announcing Friday it will raise up to Y134 billion via a new share issue. The dilutive offer will make up more than a quarter of its outstanding shares. NEC's stock briefly dipped as low as Y244, but closed up 10% to Y273 in very heavy trading.

Bank shares ended mostly lower on renewed fears that some larger lenders may have to raise more common share capital, following a Nikkei report about global banking regulators tightening capital rules. Mizuho Financial Group lost 1.1% to Y179, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group fell 0.3% to Y3,160.

December Nikkei 225 futures ended up 80 points, or 0.8%, at 9780 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

Japan's corporate earnings reporting season continues, with results from several firms expected after the market closes Friday, including Casio, Kubota, Citizen Holdings, and Olympus.

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean shares closed higher Friday after a sharp rise in US stocks on positive economic data, though investors remained cautious ahead of the release of US nonfarm payrolls data.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, ended 20.22 points, or 1.3%, higher at 1572.46.

US productivity surged in the third quarter to hit its highest level in six years, and filings for jobless benefits declined to their lowest level in 10 months last week. US October retail sales also increased 1.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 2.08% at 10005.96, marking its biggest point gain since July 15.

Volume on Friday was 247.801 million shares, compared with 203.567 million Thursday.

Foreigners and domestic institutions were net buyers of shares worth KRW128 billion and KRW11.3 billion, respectively, while local retail investors sold a net KRW149.7 billion shares.

Renewed expectations for an economic recovery in the US boosted steel makers, said Kim Hyun-tae, an analyst at Hyundai Securities.

Posco added 4.2% to KRW523,000, and Hyundai Steel gained 3% to KRW78,300.

Kim also noted steel makers' earnings momentum remains solid, with their fourth-quarter earnings expected to be stronger than the third-quarter's.

Brokerage stocks regained ground on bargain hunting after Thursday's brief pause, said analysts.

Daewoo Securities advanced 4.6% to KRW19,250, and Woori Investment & Securities climbed 4.7% to KRW15,700.

Ssangyong Motors surged by the daily limit of 15% to KRW3,205 on hopes that a local court may approve the cash-strapped car maker's self-restructuring plan.

A South Korean court is due to make a decision late Friday on whether to approve a turnaround plan provided by the debt-ridden car maker, which has been under bankruptcy protection since February.

Ncsoft advanced 3.6% to KRW129,000 after it reported earlier Friday its third-quarter net profit jumped to KRW46.88 billion from KRW5.01 billion a year earlier.

GS Engineering & Construction jumped 5.3% to KRW109,500 after the company said Thursday that it received a letter of award for a $3.11 billion refinery expansion project from Takreer in the United Arab Emirates. The contract is the biggest plant construction deal ever awarded to a single South Korean builder.

HONG KONG

Hong Kong shares ended higher Friday tracking Wall Street's overnight rise, with financial and property companies leading the gains.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 350,64 points, or 1.6%, to 21,829.72 after trading between 21,780.57 and 21,931.36 during the session. The index is up 0.4% this week.

Turnover rose to HK$64.43 billion from HK$60.77 billion Thursday.

Analysts said the benchmark index will likely trade in a narrow range next week, though investors will be closely watching the US nonfarm payrolls data due late Friday.

The inflows prompted the city's de facto central bank to sell a total of HK$10.85 billion Thursday to defend the currency peg, lifting the total aggregate balance to HK$259.24 billion.

Financial companies were the biggest gainers Friday, tracking the gains of their US peers.

HSBC advanced 1.9% to HK$86.85, and Bank of China Hong Kong was up 3.2% at HK$18.46.

Local developers rose after a sell-off in recent sessions on concerns the government may increase supply. The property sub-index rose 2.0% to 27,841.41 after a 1.3% decline Thursday.

Sun Hung Kai Properties gained 2.5% to HK$116.30 following its 1.7% loss in the last session, and Cheung Kong jumped 1.7% to HK$97.35 after falling 1.5% Thursday.

Heat transfer products maker Greens Holdings jumped 12.3% to HK$1.82 on its debut, up from its initial public offering price of HK$1.62.

CHINA

China's shares ended higher for the sixth consecutive session Friday, led by developers and cement companies after property heavyweight China Vanke reported strong October sales.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended up 0.3% at 3164.04, its highest closing level since Aug. 11, when it finished at 3264.73. The index has risen 5.6% over the week.

The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.6% to 1123.82.

Turnover for the Shanghai Composite Index rose to CNY183.9 billion ($26.9 billion) from CNY157.8 billion Thursday.

Analysts said the market may consolidate next week following its recent gains, because investors are concerned the government may act to rein in sectors that have been growing too quickly and are at risk of overcapacity.

Property companies generally rose after China Vanke, the country's largest developer by market value, said its sales surged 95% in October to CNY6.54 billion.

China Vanke ended up 2.8% at CNY12.10 and Tianjin Realty Development rose 6.0% to CNY7.02.

Cement firms were also strong, partly related to increased construction by property developers, analysts said.

Hebei Taihang Cement surged by the daily trading limit of 10% to CNY11.19 after the company said Zhong Run Economic Development, an asset management company, bought a 5% stake through block trades between Oct. 29 and Thursday.

Tangshan Jidong Cement ended up 10% at CNY15.95, after it said fourth-quarter earnings would be boosted by a CNY27.2 million tax rebate it received Tuesday.

Expressway operator Hainan Expressway also rose by the daily maximum of 10% to CNY5.48 following a report in the China Securities News that said the government may soon approve a plan to upgrade tourism development on the southern island province of Hainan. The stock has risen over 50% since Oct. 1.

TAIWAN

Taiwan's share prices closed higher Friday, with the weighted index, the market's key barometer, gaining 45.59 points, or 0.61%, to close at 7,463.05.

The local bourse opened at 7,516.4 and fluctuated between 7,521.01 and 7,450.68 during the day's trading session.

A total of 3.32 billion shares changed hands on market turnover of NT$92.35 billion (US$2.84 billion).

Seven of the eight major stock categories gained ground, with foodstuff issues moving up the most at 1.59%. Textile stocks advanced 1.48%, plastics and chemicals shares rose 1.14%, cement stocks were up 0.83%, banking and financial shares gained 0.69%, machinery and electronics shares added 0.42%, and construction issues advanced 0.06%.

One other major stock category lost ground, with paper and pulp issues moving down 0.6%.

Gainers outnumbered losers 1,286 to 1,134, with 323 stocks remaining unchanged.

Foreign institutional investors were net buyers of NT$4.55 billion-worth of shares.

THE PHILIPPINES

Philippine shares are likely to rise next week due to positive earnings reports by listed companies for the three months to September, dealers said Friday.

The composite index rose 22.97 points or 0.79% over the week to close at 2,931.47 on Friday.

Average daily turnover was 2.55 billion shares worth P5.114 billion ($107.8 million).

Market breadth was positive where a total of 82 issues gained while 45 shares slipped and 52 stocks were unchanged.

Shares of Manila Electric Co. slumped 12.2% after First Philippine Holdings Corp. on Thursday decided to sell just half of its remaining 13.4% stake in Meralco to Metro Pacific Investments Corp., forsaking an offer from Triratna Holdings Corp. to buy the entire stake. The drop was "obviously, a sell-on-news phenomenon after the winner of the bidding war is known,"

Mining and oil shares meanwhile was up by 1.96% or 184. 17 points to 9,571.05, along with the other three counters.

Shares of mining company Philex, meanwhile, shot up on news that the Government Service Insurance System has been buying its shares from the open market. Philex posted a week-on-week gain of 13.50 pesos (0.28 US Dollar) or 17.39% higher.

Stocks in the 30-company index closed higher, led by heavyweight Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. which climbed by 0.39% to P2,565 ($53.92).

SINGAPORE

Singapore shares closed 1.10% higher on Friday, fuelled by overnight gains on Wall Street but there was some caution ahead of the release of US employment data, dealers said.

The blue-chip Straits Times Index rose 28.86 points to 2,658.21 on volume of 1.23 billion shares worth $1.13 billion (US$812 million).

Gainers outnumbered losers 280 to 181, while 784 issues were unchanged.

Wall Street soared on Thursday in the strongest rally since July on better-than-expected jobs claims data and positive company news, boosting Asian equities.

Traders were also eyeing the release of US non-farm payroll figures for October due out Friday.

DBS Group, Southeast Asia's biggest bank, led a surge in quarterly profits among Singapore's three listed banks, all of which beat forecasts and are better positioned than global peers for post-crisis growth.

DBS, whose new CEO, former Citibanker Piyush Gupta, will join the bank this month, said net interest income was at a quarterly record and fee income at its highest since the onset of the global financial crisis.

MALAYSIA

Bursa Malaysia ended higher Friday with interests focussed on selective blue-chips as investors took the cue from the overnight gains on Wall Street, dealers said.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) rose 6.8 points to close at 1,260.76, boosted by gains in Axiata and Genting.

The FBM KLCI opened 6.11 points higher at 1,260.07. It moved between 1,260.07 and 1,260.76 throughout the day.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said Bursa Malaysia, like other Asian bourses, would probably bounce up buoyed by the robust Wall Street performance.

"The major US equity indices jumped between 1.9% and 2.4%.

"The bellwether Dow Jones Industrial Average surged above the psychological 10,000 level, partly helped by lower jobless claims and higher productivity data," it said.

The FBM Emas Index rose 34.44 points to 8,422.83, FBM Top 100 increased 31.521 points to 8,210.11 and the FBM ACE Index surged 89.04 points to 4,687.65.

The FBM 70, however, fell 19.77 points to 8,090.28

The Finance Index advanced 63.88 points to 10,776.29 and the Industrial Index gained 12.28 points to 2,699.87.

The Plantation Index, however, eased 5.45 points to 6,058.91.

Advancers led decliners by 451 to 229 while 242 counters were unchanged and 349 untraded.

Total turnover declined to 1.428 billion shares worth RM1.513 billion from 1.523 billion shares worth RM1.405 billion Thursday.

Turnover on the Main Market fell to 1.090 billion shares valued RM1.402 billion from 1.117 billion shares valued at RM1.286 billion on Thursday.

The ACE Market volume declined to 301.984 million units worth RM96.961 million from 366.707 million units worth RM100.605 million Thursday.

Warrants rose to 19.829 million shares valued at RM4.074 million from 15.708 million units valued at RM2.832 million previously.

Leading the actives list was Multi Sports Holdings, which rose 9.5 sen to 67.5 sen, Green Packet-Warrant and Green Packet declined 10 sen each to 91 sen and RM1.39 respectively and REDtone fell half sen to 41 sen.

Among heavyweights, Sime Darby gained four sen to RM9.04, Maybank rose one sen to RM6.84, CIMB gained eight sen to RM12.78 but Tenaga was unchanged at RM8.40.

Consumer products accounted for 112.234 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 164.812 million, construction 80.084 million, trade and services 335.255 million, technology 199.320 million, infrastructure 25.111 million, finance 42.412 million, hotels 29.397 million, properties 79.497 million, plantations 20.786 million, mining 5,000, REITs 1.472 million and closed/fund 34,200.

THAILAND

Thai shares jumped 2.45% in value Friday on a region-wide rebound bolstered by the Dow Jones' overnight rally, brokers said.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index ended at 698.63, up 16.72 points or 2.45%.

Thailand's top mobile phone operator, Advanced Info Service, said it planned to invest 50 billion baht ($1.5 billion) in total in its 2G and future 3G network over the next three years.

AIS, 21.4% owned by Singapore Telecommunications Ltd, said 10% of the 50 billion baht budget would be on its existing 2G network.

INDONESIA

The Indonesian Stock Exchange enjoyed very high turnover on Friday as three large shareholders in PT Delta Dunia Petroindo collectively sold six billion shares, around 88% of the company, at between Rp 1,350 (14 cents) and Rp 1,400 a share, on the negotiated market.

Delta, a property firm diversifying into resources, closed down Rp 300 at Rp 1,600. On Thursday, it said it had signed an agreement on Oct. 29 to borrow $260 million from coal miner PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, which Delta later plans to acquire.

Some 9.6 billion shares worth Rp 10.9 trillion changed hands on Friday, mainly as a result of the Delta Dunia trading. Gainers led losers 119 to 62.

Overall, Indonesian shares ended higher, tracking gains in regional and European markets prompted by the Dow's rebound on Thursday.

The Jakarta Composite Index rose 27.89 points, or 1.2%, to 2,395.11. It rose 1.2% for the week, the first advance in three weeks.

Banking stocks supported the index's gain with sentiment spurred by the banks' positive results in the nine months through September, he said.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia rose 1.9% to Rp 7,450 and PT Bank Negara Indonesia climbed 3.9% to Rp 1,890. PT Bank Danamon increased 2.8% to Rp 4,550 while PT Bank Central Asia gained 2.7% to Rp 4,725.

PT Gudang Garam climbed 7.1% to Rp 17,250 while PT Astra International rose 1.9% to Rp 30,350.

Among the biggest losers was PT Bumi Resources, which lost 2.1% to Rp 2,325.

Telekomunikasi Indonesia, the country's biggest telecom company, is aiming for a 10 to 15% growth in revenue and net profit in 2010, more than the targeted 5-10% growth this year.

Tanri Abeng, Telkom's chairman, told Reuters in an interview that consolidation in the country's mobile phone operators is imminent and could happen as early as the first quarter of 2010.

INDIA

Indian shares Friday finished higher for a third consecutive session, paced by banks and metals, as most markets around the world remained firm following encouraging US economic data.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-share Sensitive Index rose 0.6% to end at 16,158.28. It has gained 1.7% this week.

The index, which has lost 4.7% in the past one month, traded between 16,075.19 and 16,283.86 during the session.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty closed up 0.6% 4,796.15.

Total traded volume on the BSE was 59.99 billion Rupees ($1.28 billion), a tad higher than Thursday's 59.63 billion Rupees. Gainers beat decliners 1,944 to 780, while 63 stocks remained unchanged.

Banks rose on value-buying, after having fallen sharply over the past few days on concerns that a tighter policy by the Reserve Bank of India would hurt profitability. The State Bank of India rose 3.1% to 2,204.20 Rupees.

On Oct. 27, the Reserve Bank of India said banks must increase the minimum provision ratio for bad debts to 70% from 10% by September 2010.

Metal stocks rose as base-metal prices on the London Metal Exchange remained firm, aided by a weak US Dollar and on hopes that demand would continue to remain strong.

Copper producer Sterlite Industries climbed 2.2% to 804.05 Rupees. Tata Steel, the world's eighth-largest steel maker by output, gained 3.1% to 499.70 Rupees, helped by a 38% rise in October steel sales from a year earlier.

Larsen & Toubro, India's largest engineering and construction company by sales, closed 2.2% up at 1,575.70 Rupees, while Jaiprakash Associates jumped 4.8% to 227.80 Rupees.

But Tata Power slipped 3.8% to 1,271.50 Rupees after it said it would raise $300 million through a foreign convertible bond issue.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian share market finished the week with its biggest rise in a month as investors reacted positively to a strong bounce on Wall Street, amid optimism about US non-farm payrolls data, due later Friday.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed up 86 points or 1.9% at a four-day high of 4594.0. Volume was below average, but reasonable for a Friday.

Broad-based gains were led by materials, industrials, financials, property trusts and energy stocks and fueled by positive data and rising share prices in the US

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 2.1%, its best one-day rise since July 15, after worker productivity soared, jobless claims fell and Cisco's CEO gave a bullish economic outlook.

Looking ahead, analysts on average expect US non-farm payrolls data to show a fall of 175,000 in October, the first monthly fall of less than 200,000 jobs since July 2008. Unemployment is expected to have risen to 9.9%.

In resources, BHP surged 2.6% to A$37.40 and Rio Tinto rose 3.9% to A$65.00 despite weaker base metal prices overnight.

Among banks, Commonwealth Bank rose 1.7% to A$52.71 before its quarterly trading update on Monday, while Westpac 2.5% at A$26.55.

Elsewhere in the financials sector, QBE Insurance rose 4.3% to A$22.42, Axa Asia Pacific rose 5.4% to A$4.30 and Macquarie Group rose 4.1% to A$49.60.

Leighton led industrials with a 5.9% rise to A$35.80, after Macquarie Equities upgraded to Outperform.

In the energy sector, WorelyParsons rose 7.6% to A$27.48 and Woodside Petroleum rose 1.1% to A$47.91.

With US jobs data due, market participants are wary of a repeat of last week, when Wall Street surged on Thursday before plunging on Friday.

Although Friday's rally coincided with an upbeat monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia, traders said the RBA statement wasn't the driver.

The RBA predicted stronger-than-expected investment in the year ahead, particularly in the resources sector. It also raised its inflation and GDP forecasts, but the revisions were expected by economists.

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand shares closed higher Friday, bolstered by the rally on Wall Street overnight and some positive news from local companies.

The NZX-50 ended up 0.5%, or 15.66 points, at 3,160.16, but ended down 1.7% for the week.

Trading remained muted, however, as volatility on offshore markets sidelined many investors.

Brokers said the market was also waiting for the US October nonfarm payrolls report.

Market sentiment got a lift after resin and chemical maker Nuplex upgraded its full-year guidance following stronger-than-expected first quarter earnings.

The stock ended up 5.8% at NZ$2.54.

Bellwether Telecom was up 1.6% at NZ$2.52 after posting a higher-than-expected fiscal first-quarter net profit, helped by a NZ$35 million dividend from its half-owned cable company Southern Cross Cable and NZ$39 million of relief on taxes from the year-ago quarter.

Construction company Fletcher Building continued to benefit from better market sentiment, adding 1.2% to NZ$7.95.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances also came in for some buying interest, adding 3.1% to NZ$0.67.

In the other direction, Kiwi Income Property Trust ended down 2.9% at NZ1.02. Earlier Friday, the company posted an after-tax net loss in the six months to Sept. 30 but said its distributable profit was up from a year earlier.

Goodman Property Trust ended up 1.0% at NZ$1.02. On Friday the company said it is proceeding with a NZ$100M retail bond offer and may accept up to NZ$50 million in oversubscriptions.  
Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesGold hit a fresh peak above $1,100 an ounce on Friday but crude oil prices fell as a disappointing rise in US unemployment fuelled concerns about prospects for a recovery in the world's largest energy consumer.

Gold hit $1,100.90 a troy ounce before easing back to $1,095, up 4.8% this week and gaining 24.7% this year on hopes for a new round of buying by central banks in emerging economies.

Crude oil prices fell by more than $2 with Nymex December West Texas Intermediate down $2.40 to $77.22 a barrel, up 0.3% over the week, while ICE December Brent lost $2.29 at $75.70 a barrel, up 0.7% this week

Jose Botelho de Vasconcelos, president of Opec, said oil prices were "more or less at an acceptable level" and that crude at $80 a barrel in 2010 would be "reasonable".

The Baltic Dry Index rose 1.7% to 3,393, up 9.3% this week with the global benchmark for freight costs for dry bulk commodities moving higher due to strong Chinese demand for iron ore and coal and congestion outside Australia's Dalrymple Bay port, the world's third-largest coal export terminal.

Among the base metals, copper inched up 0.5% over the week to $6,515 a tonne amid ongoing concerns about supply disruptions in Latin America.
Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Dollar came under renewed pressure this week as a series of policy decisions from the world's leading central banks boosted investor confidence over the prospects for the global economy.

Risk appetite received a boost after the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday as the central bank maintained its commitment to keep US interest rates at ultra-low levels for an "extended period".

The wording was crucial because speculation that the Fed might omit the phrase had interpreted the possible move as a sign that loose monetary policy would come to an end sooner than anticipated.

This had boosted both the Dollar and the Yen as haven demand for the low-yielding currencies heightened appetite for risky assets such as equities, commodities and higher-yielding currencies faltered.

The reassurance from the Fed helped reverse that trend, however, sending the Dollar and the Yen lower.

Meanwhile, investor confidence was also lifted as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England signalled on Thursday that special liquidity measures and asset purchases could now start winding down.

Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, indicated that an offer of unlimited emergency one-year liquidity planned for December would be the last.

The Bank of England slowed the pace of quantitative easing in the UK, announcing a £25bn extension of its asset purchase programme to £200bn. This was lower than some had been expecting and reflected what the central bank regarded as a slightly better economic outlook.

Data released on Friday that showed US unemployment rose to a 26-year high failed to temper the Dollar's fall. Indeed, with other economic data and the outcome of central bank meetings broadly supportive of risk appetite, the Dollar lost ground over the week. It fell 1.3% to $1.4907 against the Euro, dropped 1% to $1.6585 against Sterling and lost 1.2% to SFr1.0130 against the Swiss Franc.

The Yen fell 0.3% to Y89.91 against the Dollar over the week.

Commodity-linked currencies also advanced. The New Zealand Dollar climbed 1.8% to $0.7262 against its US counterpart over the week, while the Canadian Dollar rose 1.7% to C$1.0660 and the Norwegian Krone gained 1% to NKr5.6745.

The Australian Dollar was the star performer, however, after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%. Prospects were further enhanced on Friday after the RBA lifted its 2009 growth forecast to 1.75%, well ahead of the estimate of 0.5% it gave in August.

Over the week, the Aussie Dollar rose 2.5% to $0.9194 against the US Dollar and 2.8% to Y82.71 against the Yen.

Against its South African counterpart, the Dollar traded lower during New York deals on Friday. The pair touched 7.4880, which may be compared to Thursday's closing value of 7.5900. This set an 11day low for the US currency. Presently, the pair is trading at 7.5485. The Dollar has been in a downward channel against the rand since November 02, 2009.

And finally, here in China with the RMB.  A steady Dollar-RMB central parity left China's RMB little changed against the US currency late Friday.

On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.8273 around 0930 GMT, almost flat from Thursday's close of CNY6.8276. It traded between CNY6.8272 and CNY6.8277.

The Dollar-RMB central parity rate was set at 6.8276, steady from Thursday's 6.8277. The fixing has been set between 6.8267 and 6.8290 since Sept. 10.
China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's current account surplus will fall by almost half this year, the World Bank predicted on Wednesday, potentially bolstering Beijing's resistance to appeals expected from US President Barack Obama for renminbi appreciation.

A rapidly falling surplus would signal that the stronger than expected recovery in recent months is bringing about some rebalancing of the Chinese economy.

The World Bank, which also raised its forecast for Chinese growth this year, said the current account surplus was likely to drop from 9.8% of gross domestic product last year to 5.6% of GDP this year, and to 4.1% in 2010. In absolute terms, the bank forecast the surplus would fall from $426bn in 2008 to $261bn this year and $213bn in 2010.

At the peak of the surplus in 2007 - when, some economists argue, a large imbalance in China's favour contributed to the glut of liquidity in western financial markets that precipitated the global crisis - the current account surplus was equivalent to 11% of GDP.

The new evidence of China's declining external surplus comes ahead of Mr Obama's first visit to Beijing in 10 days time when he is likely to encourage China to appreciate its currency to help global rebalancing.

"The reduction in the surplus is quite impressive but it is too early to say whether it will be sustained," said Louis Kuijs, senior economist at the World Bank in Beijing. Some of the decrease simply reflected the fact that the Chinese economy was growing strongly while most of the rest of the world was weak, he said. However, he added, "there have also been an accumulation of policy steps that are maybe beginning to start to shift the pattern of growth in China".

The World Bank, which in the past has urged China to adopt a stronger currency, said the renminbi had depreciated by 7.6% overall against its main trading partners since March as a result of its informal peg to the US Dollar.

In its latest quarterly report on the Chinese economy, the World Bank said that growth would reach 8.4% this year, up from its forecast of 7.2% in June, followed by 8.7% next year.

The rebound in recent months had been fuelled by "very large" fiscal and monetary stimulus, the bank said. In the third quarter alone, new lending increased by the equivalent of 6.5% of annual GDP.

There have been signs that the China recovery has been broadening, including a rebound in investment in real estate, while export growth was likely to resume next year. Although there were risks that loose monetary policy could spill over into asset price bubbles, China did not yet need to embark on a major tightening, the bank said.

The  World Bank also raised its forecast for economic growth in developing east Asia this year by 1.4 percentage points to 6.7% but warned that the rebound from the global financial crisis had yet to turn into a recovery.

*****************************

China plans to consolidate its steel industry to create companies to compete with global leader ArcelorMittal and better negotiate prices with customers and raw material suppliers.

China, already the world's biggest steelmaker, should have one or two producers with capacity of 100 million metric tons each by 2015, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said a person who attended a Nov. 3 briefing on the policy. The person declined to be identified because the plans aren't public yet.

China in August said its fragmented steel industry has led to overcapacity, depressed prices and reduced the ability of Baosteel Group Corp. and others to negotiate with suppliers of iron ore used in making steel. The government has promoted consolidation since 2005, and a failure to rein in output has contributed to six years of iron ore price gains.

Li Xinchuang, executive director of China Metallurgical Industrial Planning and Research Institute, a state-run government adviser, confirmed a steel policy plan is under discussion. He declined to reveal details.

Under the draft, the nation's 10-biggest mills should account for 75% of China's output by 2020, an increase from an earlier target of 70%, said the person, who added steelmakers are now reviewing the plan.

The policy will require companies in coastal cities or in provincial capitals to close blast furnaces smaller than 1,000 cubic meters to curb overcapacity, the person said.

Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal produced 101.6 million tons of steel last year. Baosteel, China's biggest steelmaker, made 35.44 million tons, followed by Hebei Iron & Steel Group with 33.3 million tons. The nation's 2009 output was 500.5 million tons.

Chinese steel prices have fallen 20% from a 10-month high on Aug. 4. There is "severe oversupply," Deng Qiling, chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association said Oct 13. China may work out plans to close obsolete mills, merge others and reduce the number of iron ore importers by the end of this year, he said.

China, the world's largest buyer of iron ore, increased imports of the material from producers including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group to a record this year. The government wants steelmakers to invest in overseas iron ore and coal mines and establish or acquire steel plants under the new policy.

Contract iron ore prices may jump 14% next year to the second-highest on record.

*****************************

Disney, the world's largest media company, won government approval to build its first theme park in mainland China, its fourth outside the US The Magic Kingdom-style park will be built in three phases covering 11 square kilometers (2,718 acres), according to Shanghai Securities News, and force about 5,000 families in Chuansha county to relocate, villagers said.

The park will cost about 25 billion RMB ($3.66 billion) to build and is scheduled to open in 2014, the state-run newspaper said Thursday.

The proposed park already is pushing up property prices in the district, which is about 27 kilometers (17 miles) east of Shanghai's Lujiazui financial center.

A Nov. 4 auction of a 56,570-square-meter plot in Chuansha country attracted 17 bidders and sold to a Fujian province developer for 1.19 billion RMB, compared with the minimum asking price of 326.8 million RMB, the state-owned Xinhua News Agency said.

Residential prices in 70 Chinese cities climbed 2.8% in September, the fastest pace in a year, as record lending and 4 trillion RMB in stimulus spending spur a recovery in the world's fastest-growing major economy. New home prices in Shanghai averaged 16,780 RMB per square meter in October, according to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co.

China has a history of relocating people -- with compensation and without -- for redevelopment and construction projects.

Beijing's government said last year it used market-based valuations to pay an average of 700,000 RMB compensation to each household relocated for the building of venues for the 2008 Olympic Games. The local government moved 6,037 households, with about 14,901 residents, between 2001 and 2004.

Many of Beijing's centuries-old narrow lanes, or hutongs, were demolished before the Games, and their residents were sent to far-flung suburbs or new towns around the city.

Farmers in Hubei province relocated because of the Three Gorges Dam project received 6,000 RMB in compensation per household, the state-run Global Times reported Sept. 30. The dam, set to become the world's biggest hydroelectric power station when fully operational by 2012, forced the relocation of 1.27 million people by June 30, the government said.

Ge Gengdi, 65, of Zhaohang village in Pudong, operates a small neighborhood store with her husband and makes about 350 RMB of profit a day. She has lived in the village for 39 years, and her family of eight shares a 300-square-meter house.

"The government's agenda is always on top of farmers', and I know we should support it instead of grudging," Ge said, standing amid shelves of soap, bottled water and cooking oil. "Happy or not happy isn't important anymore. The decision is made and we have to move."

An official at the Chuansha county planning department, who declined to provide her name, said Nov. 4 that relocation will start soon. Shanghai government spokesman Chen Qiwei declined to comment Thursday.

The resettlement involves 4 million square meters of land, the state-run China Daily said Nov. 4.

Qigan, at the center of Chuansha, covers 3 square kilometers and has 2,555 people, according to the local government. Zhaohang covers 5.3 square kilometers and has 3,820 people.

Ge said she already lost some land to the government for redevelopment last year. The government didn't specify what the land would be used for, she said.

"All I care now is how much compensation we will end up getting after layers and layers of government officials get their share," the retired farmer said.

Chen Xiwen, director of the State Council's Office of Central Rural Work Leading Group, said in February that China's government must protect the economic interests of farmers or face increasing protests as millions of jobless workers return to the countryside from cities.

Premier Wen Jiabao has made boosting incomes among farmers a priority, promoting rural loans and raising public works spending to double their earnings by 2020. The average per capita income in the countryside was 4,716 RMB in 2008, about a third of that for city dwellers, according to government statistics.

Jin said she and her husband grow vegetables and fruit to save money. Her fellow villagers say they will get 32 square meters of living space each in their new homes.

"There are no factories in this place so there's no pollution," Jin said. "But it's all ruined now: the peace, the air, and our life." 

A sentiment echoed by every person in Puxi and Pudong that suffered the same fate in the late eighties/early nineties I am sure!

*****************************

Two pioneering legal actions in China involving high-profile companies have been settled, with one case highlighting the fresh powers handed to consumers under the country's new anti-monopoly laws.

China Mobile, the world's largest mobile phone group with 500m subscribers, has agreed to pay Rmb1,000 ($146) to settle a lawsuit filed by a customer who alleged it had abused its monopoly position to extract unfair revenue from subscribers.

A Shanghai court has also thrown out a case against Nasdaq-listed Shanda Interactive Entertainment because the plaintiff had insufficient evidence to prove its allegations.

The Shanda ruling is the first legal judgment from a mainland court under China's revamped competition regime, which was introduced in August 2008.

China Mobile and Shanda were in the first batch of mainland companies facing legal action for alleged monopolistic practices, with cases involving China Netcom, Baidu and Sinopec awaiting settlement.

Zhou Ze, a Beijing-based civil rights lawyer, had demanded China Mobile refund Rmb1,200 because of the allegedly "unfair" extra monthly Rmb50 rental fee charged to high-end customers who do not use prepaid phone cards.

The settlement, mediated by a Beijing court and which China Mobile agreed without accepting liability, could trigger thousands of copycat cases against Chinese companies as consumers utilise their new rights.

China Mobile was unavailable for comment.

Mr Zhou predicted that other Chinese companies with exposure to large numbers of consumers, including telecoms groups and oil majors, would "see more such complaints in the future".

He told the Financial Times: "They all have a history as state-owned monopolists and that is where their mindset comes from. Consumers will stand up to that."

Legal experts are warning foreign companies operating in China to pay close attention to the cases, as emerging rulings could radically alter corporate behaviour.

In the Shanda case, the court ruled against a small online publisher, which alleged that Shanda had abused its dominant position in the market for online literature.

The case centred on the plaintiff's ultimately fruitless attempt to commission two authors to write a sequel to a novel series originally published by Shanda, an internet portal dominated by online games.

China's new regime, which is largely based on western competition practices, covers merger controls, monopolistic and cartel behaviour, and discriminatory pricing.    
Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 In the US, major retailers, including Wal-Mart, will report fiscal third-quarter results next week. The industry has been reporting improved year-over-year sales of late.

Positive Q3 earnings surprises from a majority of US and European firms have not been enough to push stocks significantly higher.

A renewed focus on banking sector fragilities has tempered risk seeking and what regulators might do as conditions "normalize."

That guarantees interest in EU finance ministers' Tuesday discussions on exit strategies for the support measures that were extended to the financial sector.

Reactions to results next week from banks (Barclays, Credit Agricole, Unicredit in Europe) and retailers Wal-Mart and JC Penney will show whether book-keeping considerations before year end are beginning to outweigh the hunt for a good home for the liquidity that central banks have been pumping into the system.

The US trade deficit for September, out next Friday, is expected to rise slightly as US economic growth continues.

US stock markets are open although bond markets and government offices will be closed Wednesday for Veterans' Day.

The September trade deficit is forecast to rise slightly after contracting unexpectedly in August. A widening would be taken as a sign of the economy growing, with imports outpacing exports. Also out next Friday is the preliminary November figure for the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The reading fell last month after rising in August and September.

Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers are meeting this weekend in Scotland in a bid to step up cooperation amid uncertainty about whether an incipient global economic recovery will take root.

One issue on the agenda is when to start withdrawing extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures enacted during the past year to stir stricken economies. The meeting is expected to set out more details on the G-20's proposed mutual- assessment framework for sustainable growth. The initiative aims to coordinate economic policies better and set up a policy of peer review--pursued in part through the International Monetary Fund--to ensure G-20 nations' policies don't threaten global economic stability.

Most major central banks this week made it clear that they don't want to make the year-end problematic by prematurely withdrawing liquidity from the system.

Nevertheless, market liquidity is already being affected as end-2009 draws closer.

Money market conditions in the coming weeks, and the possibility that the ECB's long-term refinancing operation may not be repeated next year, will influence demand at the European Central Bank's December one-year tender and the performance of assets that have benefited from the central bank cash flowing through the system.

Flash Euro zone Q3 GDP data (preceded by German and French releases) is expected to prove a better reflection of improving PMIs than UK GDP turned out to be and will shape expectations of when the ECB will begin to withdraw excess liquidity.

Such considerations will drive Euro/Sterling and the gilt/Bund spread, which has been widening - and all the more so given the BOE Inflation Report next week will shed more light on the BOE's view on the mid-term inflation outlook, why it opted to expand its QE program, and just how long it expects the economy to require its support.

G20 countries have been clear they don't want to withdraw fiscal measures too hastily but the need to formulate credible fiscal exit strategies is becoming ever more pressing.

The scale of the problems facing some Euro zone countries were made clear by Fitch's downgrade of Ireland and new Greek premier George Papandreou saying his government needed to save the country from bankruptcy.

Markets are already jumpy and will become ever less tolerant as QE unwinding draws nearer and firmer 2010 sovereign debt issuance plans/numbers highlight how much supply will flood the market.

And finally, US President Barack Obama's November 12-19 visit to Asia will keep global rebalancing and emerging pegged currencies firmly on financial markets' radar even after the G20 finance meeting is out of the way.

Neither host nor guest will want to rock the boat in public during the China leg of that trip but even a scent of discussions on RMB revaluation or the broader issue of China's FX regime will be enough to cause a stir.

In my humble opinion, Mr Obama's visit to China is going to tell us far more about the 'depth' of the man's cultural/business sense than any of his economic comments to date. 

Can he get through the visit without mentioning the RMB?

My guess is that he is savvy enough not to mention this 'hot potato'; however, I'm sad to say that some of his 'advisors' lack the subtlety required when dealing with China and one (or more) of them will probably open their mouth without thinking ........ and we'll have a whole new round of RMB/Dollar sabre-rattling until years' end!

It is going to be another interesting week ahead.
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
In This Issue
US Markets
European Markets
The UK Market
Asia Pacific Markets
Global Commodities
Global Currencies
China This Week
Summary
Quick Links
Services
Our Services 
Personal Banking
Useful Tools