Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,
Financial Definition - Contagion: "When an economic crisis in one country's bond or equity markets spreads to other countries which experience the same problems. The term comes from the more general definition of contagion, which is a highly transmittable disease."
As if you hadn't guessed, I'm going to address the 'Greece' debacle this morning but first, I'd like to start with Spain.
The downgrading of Spain was done for strange reasons. Spain has a debt to GDP of 90% (against 144% of for Greece) and a budget deficit of 7% (against Greece's 14%). More importantly, the spread over German bunds is 250 bps against 700bps. With an AA rating (compared to Greece's BB), even after the recent downgrading from AAA, Spanish creditworthiness is strong. We are living in a strange world where everything that is said can be published and then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The role of the media is important, but also the way the authorities communicate is critical. Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and his Government need to stick to the facts rather than threatening the rating agencies or the markets. On the day Spain was downgraded, it was portrayed as a catastrophic situation. Now is not the time for over dramatization and the endless shows of the European leaders give more an impression of confusion than leadership. Whoever launched the rumor of a $ 350 billion IMF financing for Spain that made the markets immediately tumble must be the same people who spread rumors to cover their short positions. Unfortunately short sales in fixed income are neither well regulated nor monitored. This was insane. But the fact that the market believed the rumor for a few hours is in itself a sign of its lack of knowledge. The Spanish problem is totally different from that of Greece and these two should not be confused in the market.
The Zapatero Government has been slow to act forcefully to the problems in the "cajas de ahorros." These "savings banks" are mostly providers of mortgages and many are close to collapse and will only survive through consolidation. Local politics have delayed some of those transactions and the Spanish Government has not acted as decisively as it should have. Yet this is ultimately more of a private sector problem, since those cajas heavily borrowed abroad benefitting, until now, of the public sector's AAA rating. The largest Spanish banks, especially Bilbao Vizcaya and Santander had limited exposure to the subprime markets and are perfectly capable of weathering the storm of the real estate market collapse in Spain. Contagion should only happen in my view, when there is an immediate connection between the issuers.
While they share the commonality of the Euro, and therefore the slow growth in 2010, the decrease of the value of the European currency is also benefitting to them. Beyond that the situation of each individual country is specific and amalgamation makes no sense. The amalgamation could provoke contagion, but it definitely does not need to be the case. Ladies and Gentlemen, never having been one to sit on the fence in issues of importance, I would rather offer my opinion on Europe than sit back and watch panic set in - which in my opinion, is the last thing that needs to happen. Yes, there are major issues here for not just Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland (the so-called PIGS countries), but we also need to look at the UK and Italy - both of which have severe problems of their own - but only one of which is in the Euro. And it is Italy that I think holds the key as to whether Europe sinks into an abyss or can collectively recover - albeit slowly. The Greek crisis is a defining moment for the Euro zone, but especially so for the European Central Bank. For the first time in its short history, the bank's independence could be seriously threatened. The calls for the ECB to crank up its printing presses to solve the Euro zone's sovereign-debt problems are growing louder. After struggling for months, the Euro zone, together with the IMF, finally launched last weekend a €110 billion rescue package for Greece that requires ambitious fiscal adjustments in Athens. The program was designed to "shock and awe" markets, to humble them by making them irrelevant to Greece's financing needs for at least two years. The markets brushed it all aside as a speck of dust. Contagion pressure on other peripheral markets continued unabated, and the underlying belief is that while Portugal is small enough that it could also be bailed out, Spain is not, and Italy (admittedly much more resilient) is the nuclear land mine that no one dares to mention (except perhaps me). This is why there is growing and insistent speculation that the ECB might have to step in with direct purchases of government bonds. Recent statements by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and Executive Board Member Jürgen Stark suggest that the central bank's governing council has discussed this option and not dismissed it. This is both understandable and worrying. The ECB has already been forced into an embarrassing turnaround on its collateral policy. It just eliminated the minimum rating requirements for Greek sovereign debt after having stated earlier-with defiant confidence-that it would never change its rules for the sake of a single country. But in this case it was the initial tough talk that was reckless, not the about-face. It is perfectly sensible for the ECB to show greater flexibility in accepting as collateral even the downgraded debt of one of its own member states when the alternative is a serious risk of financial instability. If the ECB no longer accepted Greek sovereign debt as collateral, some of the banks holding it might face a sudden liquidity shortage that could endanger their survival; and indeed the very risk of this happening could paralyze Europe's interbank markets. But outright purchases of government debt are a whole different kettle of fish. It would be difficult to justify such a dramatic step as necessary to ensure the Euro zone's financial stability. We have not even come close to the kind of indiscriminate panic selling that could disrupt markets in a way similar to the post-Lehman paralysis. Markets are largely repricing sovereign risk across Euro-zone countries to account for the dramatic divergences in fiscal performance and competitiveness over the last 10 years. Some price movements might be exaggerated, but overall Euro-zone sovereign-bond yields are not grossly out of line with fundamentals. In addition, the area's economic recovery is unfolding as expected, if anything with hints of upside risks. It's clearly a two-speed recovery, with Germany riding its export boom and France picking up at a less buoyant but more balanced pace, while the periphery languishes. But with headline inflation rekindled by higher commodity prices, macroeconomic conditions in the Euro zone's "core" could even soon justify tighter monetary policy. Classic quantitative easing to defuse deflation risks, as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England did, is no longer appropriate. The government-bond purchases that the ECB is being pushed to consider would therefore be nothing other than the pure and simple monetization of excessive fiscal deficits. This seems to be what financial markets crave and fear at the same time. This is particularly troubling as both the ECB and the Fed seem to be coming under strong political pressure. The Fed, after having been subjected to considerable criticism by politicians and the public alike for allegedly having put taxpayer money at risk to save the banks, faces the threat of more intrusive oversight that could open the way for greater political influence on monetary policy-making. The ECB, while formally still shielded by its statutory independence, has allowed itself to be drawn into the politics of the Greek crisis. During that process, Euro-zone governments publicly overruled the ECB on the IMF involvement, which the bank originally opposed. The ECB was then forced to eat its words on the collateral rules. And the central bank now seems open to the possibility of monetizing fiscal deficits, while the Fed maintains an unshakably dovish rhetoric even as the recovery clearly takes hold. The "Great Moderation" might have been a great illusion, but central-bank independence was one of the key economic-policy achievements of the last decades, and it must be preserved. The alternative would be the end of price stability. During the course of the financial crisis, the huge imbalances accumulated by the private sector were largely shifted to the government's books in an effort to control the necessary deleveraging. If we now just shift those imbalances to the balance sheet of central banks, the unavoidable result will be inflation, and given the magnitude of these imbalances we will have no way of ensuring that a rise in inflation would be moderate and controlled. Markets already doubt the governments' commitment to gradually restore fiscal discipline, and fear that monetization will be chosen as the easy way out. Once investors start believing monetization is inevitable, it would un-anchor inflation expectations and undermine financial stability much more than the current tensions in sovereign debt markets. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy wrote in a letter published in daily Le Monde Thursday that they were "fully committed to preserve the solidity, stability and unity of the Euro zone." They called for giving new teeth to the basic rules underpinning the Euro - rules that mandate limits on government spending but which have been treated as an honor system and flouted for years by European governments. "For economic and monetary union to remain a success story, dealing with this crisis alone will not suffice. We need to go further in drawing all the lessons and in taking all necessary measures to avoid a repetition of a crisis of this kind," the letter says. They call for "reinforcing fiscal surveillance within the Euro area, including by providing for more effective sanctions" against those who violate deficit limits. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the governments that use the Euro must "avoid under any circumstances the bankruptcy of Greece because the consequences would be unforeseeable and irresponsible." The German parliament was getting ready to vote Friday on Germany's share of the Greek bailout. The concern is that more bailouts and financial pain for banks are in the offing, as well as more stress on Europe's project of economic and political integration. European Central Bank President Trichet played down contagion fears after the bank left interest rates unchanged at 1%. "Portugal and Greece are not on the same boat, and this is very visible when you look at the facts and figures," he told reporters after the rate decision in Lisbon. "Portugal is not Greece. Spain is not Greece." But we have an added problem here Ladies & Gentlemen and not for the first time, it is US-driven. Those so-called 'Ratings Agencies' - Fitch, Moody's and S & P (the same Ratings Agencies that failed to spot the Sub-Prime Crisis) - have got the bit between the teeth and they can see a way of apportioning blame for all things bad that have happened in global finance over the past three years and deflecting global attention away from Goldman Sachs and the US economy. I can just picture these people now in their swanky Wall Street offices, a map of Europe stuck on the conference room wall and them taking it in turn to stick pins in the map. "Hey dude, Greece begins with the letter G - is Greenland in the Euro? No; dammit, let's downgrade Gibraltar then, it's between Spain and Portugal!" Sound pathetic? Of course it is but let's face it, how many US analysts have got things right in the past decade or two - not many! But I go back once again to basics - the US controls global media and if they want to 'spin' the European problem out of all context, then they will do just that and revel in the opportunity. Hey, who's looking at Goldman Sachs while Greece burns and Rome 'fiddles' (every pun intended). So what I say is this; let's not panic. However, we all need to be aware that this is the greatest crisis to hit the Eurozone and the Euro since its inception and we need to plan ahead as best we can. Talking of the latter, the Euro; this has taken up 99% of my working week this week as I respond to that million Euro question, "what is going to happen to the Euro"? A month ago that is all, where I was vocal that the US Dollar - whilst seemingly stronger now than most currencies - was in for a fall in the late short/early medium terms because fundamentally there was (and still is) nothing to support a strong Dollar. This was pure Euro weakness and I for one would never have predicted that the Euro would fall through multiple support levels as quickly as it did. This is to all intents and purposes a runaway train now but - and it is a big but - could the Euro be set to rally against the Dollar after the 16-nation currency fell to more than 5% below its 21-day moving average? that is how it looks on paper at least. The single currency slumped to $1.2529 Thursday, the weakest level since March 5, 2009 (although now sat at 1.2752 as I type this), creating the basis for an advance to around $1.32. Given the fact that this currency pair normally moves within a 3% range from its 21-day moving average, we can judge that the recent decline from the trend line is excessive (by usual standards is a caveat here, but we are not in 'usual' times). This will potentially make the Euro eligible for a short-term rebound. How 'short-term' is the great question though - will it manage a recovery and if so, how long will that recovery last? If I could answer the question with confidence, then rest assured that I would and if I could predict the next move for the Euro accurately, I'd have retired years ago. But what I can advise Ladies & Gentlemen is that in times of complete uncertainty (which now have arisen in relation to the future movement of the Euro) you need to hedge your bets; start looking at safer currencies for the short-term but not with all of your Euro - stage it. 25% of your Euro cash holdings perhaps now into the USD or the Swiss Franc or even Gold. Then if the Euro continues to fall and drops below 1.20, another 25%. This is hedging the risk to a certain extent but then what if the Euro plummets through 1.20 as quickly as it did 1.30 - where then? This would boil down to whether you were a cautious person or someone waiting for an opportunity and if you were the former, I'd convert it all into a safer haven and wait it out or if you're the latter, you'll hang in there for the bottom - wherever that bottom may be. But if you take the second option, you need to have some serious mettle and be comfortable that the amount of Euro you are 'playing' with could potentially drop through the floor and that bottom may never, for all intents and purposes, arrive. Of course this is an absolute worst-case-scenario but that is what you need to look at here. My advice would be to stage the hedging and if it all looks like it's going to sea in a boat, take a complete flight to safety and sit it out in one of those safe havens. The 'sea' analogy is very apt here because what would you do in the event of serious flooding? You'd take what you could and go and sit it out somewhere dry until the floods abated. Either that or you'd do what Noah did and build an Ark and prepare for the worst! On to the numbers on the boards this week: |
| US Markets
How the US did this week ..... | |
US stocks extended their losses on Friday as investors struggled to understand Thursday's dramatic trading swings and remained focused on the European fiscal and political situations, overshadowing a positive US non-farm payrolls report. The three main indices have erased all the gains they recorded this year. At the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was 1.5% lower at 1,110.86 - 6.4% down since the start of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 1.3% to 10,379.60, leaving it 5.7% lower on the week. The Nasdaq Composite had dropped 2.3% to 2,265.64, down 7.9% over the week. The Vix index, a measure of market volatility, was up 26% on Friday to 41.32, and 87.4% higher on the week. Technology stocks led the session's slide on Friday. Chipmaker SanDisk fell 5.4% to $37.61, Cisco lost 3.1% to $24.71, Apple was down 4.2% to $235.86 and Hewlett-Packard declined 3.3% to $46.73. US-listed shares in Panasonic on Friday lost 2.1% to $13.75 in spite of the Japan-based consumer electronics company forecasting its first annual profit in three years, lifted by stronger demand for plasma televisions. The week's market volatility contributed to the postponement of several initial public offerings, including Americold Realty Trust's $680m listing, which was expected to be the largest IPO in the US this year. AIG rose 5.3% on Friday to $38.70 as the bailed-out insurer posted a profit for the third time in the past four quarters on lower writedowns and higher investment income. Net income in the quarter was $1.45bn compared with a loss of $4.35bn last year. Goldman Sachs rose 0.5% to $142.99 on Friday on the day of its annual shareholder meeting. Lawyers acting for the bank are reported to have met the Securities and Exchange Commission to discuss a possible settlement of the fraud lawsuit the regulator filed against Goldman last month. The financial sector was lower on the week as Citigroup fell 8.5% to $4, JPMorganlost 4.3% to $40.76 and Morgan Stanley slipped 8.2% to $27.75. Mergers and acquisitions activity was weak. Continental Airlinesfell 16.7% to $18.61 over the week as the fourth-biggest US airline announced on Monday a merger with United Airlines' parent UAL Corp, the third-biggest US airline, valued at $3bn. The deal will create the world's biggest carrier by passenger traffic, which will retain United's name. United fell 17.2% to $17.89. Stanley surged 26.9% on Friday to $36.79 as CGI Group, a computer services provider based in Canada, said it would buy the information technology group for about $1.1bn in cash - a premium of about 29% to Stanley's closing price on Thursday. Transocean the world's largest offshore oil drilling contractor and owner of the BP-contracted oil rig leaking into the Gulf of Mexico, was down 6% to $68.01 during the week. The stock was downgraded to "underperform" from "buy" on Friday by Crédit Agricole with a 12-month target price of $74 per share. US-listed shares in BP lost 5.9% to $49.06 over the week. |
| European Markets
What has been happening in Europe this week ..... | |
European stocks plunged on Friday, erasing all gains made so far this year, as fears about Greece's debt crisis went global. Investors saw the Greek situation as an omen of turmoil and instability in other European economies, which was made worse by an uncertain outcome in the UK's general election. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 suffered its biggest one-day fall in 14 months after US shares tumbled heavily as computerised trading exacerbated declines triggered by the Greek debt crisis. The European index fell 3.9% to 967.42, its biggest daily loss since March 2009. It lost 8.7% over the week, its largest weekly fall since November 2008. Eurozone periphery stocks were under immense pressure. Greek and Spanish stocks suffered their biggest weekly losses since October 2008. The Athens general index slid 12.8% this week to 1,630.47, while Spain's Ibex 35 dropped 13.8% to 9,046.1. Portugal's PSI 20 fell 10.6% over the week to 6,624.29, its biggest weekly drop since November 2008. The Irish Stock Exchange fell 4.1% on Friday to 1,982.71, dropping 12.2% this week. Emerging European market stocks fell sharply. Turkey's ISE index lost 5.5% to 52,686.97 on Friday. Russia's Micex index weakened 5.6% to 1,288.61, taking its losses for the week to 10.3%. GERMANY German stocks fell for a fourth day, with the DAX Index posting its biggest single-day decline since July, after US shares Thursday tumbled the most in a year as computerized trading exacerbated a selloff triggered by Europe's debt crisis. Siemens AG retreated as ING Groep NV recommended selling the shares, while Deutsche Boerse AG and Volkswagen AG lost more than 2%. MAN SE posted the biggest drop in the German gauge, losing 5.9%. Commerzbank AG rose 1% as Credit Suisse Group AG recommended the shares. The DAX lost 3.3% to 5,715.09 in Frankfurt, as the index posted its biggest weekly drop since February 2009. The gauge has retreated 9.7% from this year's high on April 26 amid concern that European leaders won't do enough to keep the most indebted nations in the region from defaulting. The broader HDAX Index also sank 3.3% Friday. In Berlin, the lower house of parliament voted 390 to 72 in favor of Germany's share of the 110 billion-Euro ($140 billion) lifeline from the Euro-region and International Monetary Fund that will allow Greece to avoid default. The upper house, or Bundesrat, also backed the bill Friday and President Horst Koehler, a former IMF managing director, signed it into law. Siemens declined 3.6% to 68.25 Euros as ING rated Europe's largest engineering company "sell" in new coverage. Deutsche Boerse, the operator of the Frankfurt stock exchange, sank 5.6% to 52.01 Euros, while Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, slid 2.8% to 67.31 Euros. MAN SE, Europe's third-largest truckmaker, retreated 5.9% to 63.65 Euros. Munich Re slid 3% to 101 Euros after the world's largest reinsurer said its full-year profit target "is increasingly ambitious" following a number of claims from natural disasters. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's second-biggest airline, declined 3.4% to 11.29 Euros. The Stoxx 600 Travel & Leisure Index fell as much as 6.1% Friday, the worst performance among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Draegerwerk AG & Co. KGAA lost 0.8% to 46.21 Euros. The German maker of medical equipment plans to sell new shares this year, Handelsblatt reported, citing an interview with Chief Executive Officer Stefan Draeger. Commerzbank surged 1% to 5.71 Euros, the only gain in the DAX. Germany's second-biggest bank was raised to "outperform" from "underperform" at Credit Suisse, which said "credit quality is genuinely better than expected" and cited a "much more favorable" economic environment in a report to clients. Fielmann AG climbed 2.3% to 55.87 Euros. Europe's largest chain of optical stores was raised to "buy" from "neutral" at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, which said the company "offers relatively lower business risk." The VStoxx Index, which measures options on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, jumped 35% to 49.60, the biggest gain since October 2008. The Stoxx 600 became "oversold" for the first time in 14 months, according to the so-called Relative Strength Index, which fell to 27.45. The measure last closed below 30 on March 9 last year, after which it rallied 65% through Jan. 19. Two German real estate mutual funds with 10.5 billion Euros ($13 billion) of assets closed for redemptions Thursday after government proposals to impose writedowns prompted investors to try to withdraw their money. SEB Asset Management AG closed its ImmoInvest fund and KanAm Grund KAG closed Grundinvest Fonds after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble released a draft bill on May 3 that recommended a 10% cut in asset values across the industry. In the past five years, Germany's 89 billion-Euro real estate mutual-fund industry has been rocked by unprecedented waves of redemptions by investors. The government also proposed a mechanism to smooth out violent swings in appraisal values, which it blames for the surge in redemptions. The writedown plan triggered "massive uncertainty among investors" and significant outflows, Frankfurt-based SEB said in a statement, without giving the scale of the redemptions. KanAm said it was "compelled" to halt redemptions in response to "fears of losses among investors and asset managers, resulting in those parties liquidating portfolios as a precaution." Susanne Ludwig, a spokeswoman for the Munich-based asset manager, said outflows since May 3 totaled "hundreds of millions of Euros." Other proposals in the draft bill include a minimum two- year investment in the funds, a two-year notice period for redemptions and new minimum cash requirements for funds. FRANCE French stocks declined for a fourth day, extending this week's slump on the CAC 40 Index, as the biggest monthly increase in US employment in April failed to ease concern the debt crisis in Greece will spread. The benchmark CAC 40 retreated 163.52, or 4.6%, to 3,392.59, the lowest level this year. The drop brought this week's slump to 11%. All 40 stocks on the measure posted declines Friday. The gauge has slid 17% from this year's high on April 15. Credit Agricole SA, France's biggest bank by branches, sank 7.2% to 9.06 Euros, a fourth straight decline. The lender's corporate and investment bank has 2.4 billion Euros ($3 billion) of commercial commitments in Greece. The bank also has sovereign risk of 850 million Euros and interbank risk of 180 million Euros, it said Friday. Greek risk held by the bank's insurance business comes to slightly less than 400 million Euros, it said. BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, dropped 5.7% to 43.93 Euros and Societe Generale SA plunged 8% to 32.77 Euros. Technip SA, Europe's second-largest oilfield-services provider, dropped 3.8% to 52.88 Euros, falling for a fourth day. Crude oil is poised for the biggest weekly decline in 16 months on speculation that the European debt crisis will detail global economic recovery. The French manufacturing sector continued to improve in April, the latest report from the Markit Economics showed on Monday. The headline Markit/CDAF Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing rose to 56.6 in April from 56.5 in the previous month. This was the biggest reading since July 2006. The flash estimate for April was 56.7. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. Markit, said, "April PMI data signalled a continuation of the recent strong growth in the French manufacturing sector. The inventory cycle remains an important driver of expansion alongside markedly rising export sales." The French service sector expanded at a steep and accelerated rate during April, a survey conducted by Markit Economics further showed on Wednesday. The headline Markit/CDAF Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a five-month high of 59.2 in April from 53.8 in March. The flash estimate for April was 57.8. At the same time, the composite PMI stood at 59.2, up from 55.8 in March and the flash reading of 58.4. "PMI data signal an appreciable uptick in growth momentum in France at the start of the second quarter. The sharp acceleration in services activity growth is encouraging after signs of a cooling off during Q1, with expansion becoming more broad-based, having been largely manufacturing-led until now," Markit said. BELGIUM Brussels saw its Bel 20 Index close out the week on 2,296.81, a drop of 4.33% on the day Friday. Economic growth in Belgium is expected to reach 1.35% in 2010 and 1.6% in 2011, with a stable deficit of 5%, according to the latest forecasts from the European Commission. The country's export-oriented economy is expected to enjoy a marked recovery of international trade, which will permit it to grow more than the Eurozone average of 0.9%. These figures, however, have not led the Commission to optimistic conclusions. "Based on the export performance of Belgium over the course of these last few years, doubts exist concerning its capacity to benefit fully from the rebound in world trade," the institution stated. Belgian imports have indeed recorded a "structural loss of market shares for both products and services," particularly because they "are characterized by a specialization in intermediate technologies, easy to imitate, such as chemicals and steel." The rise in Labour costs, more noticeable than in the rest of the Eurozone, have also hurt Belgium's competitiveness. Exports are also mainly targeting the Euro area, where there is little opportunity for high growth. Employment, which had resisted the job losses many other countries had suffered during the crisis, is expected to decline in the coming years. The Commission expects an increase in the unemployment rate from 7.9% in 2009 to 8.8% in 2010 and to 9.0% in 2011. "Given the characteristics of the Labour market in Belgium, there is a risk that some unemployed will remain inactive permanently," the Commission added. On the fiscal front, the Commission predicts a Belgian budget deficit of 5.0% this year, slightly higher than the government forecast of 4.8%. If policies remain unchanged, the deficit would not decrease in 2011, despite government expectations of a decline to 4.1% Due to the lack of a change in policy, public debt will increase to 99% of the GDP this year, and is expected to reach the 100% threshold in 2011, a level which has not been seen since 2002. De Beers SA, the world's largest diamond company, used its dominance of rough-gem supply to keep traders out of the market, Belgian competition prosecutors said. De Beers was summoned to appear before the president of the nation's competition council, a legal panel of the council said Friday in a statement, following a complaint from Diamanthandel A. Spira BVBA, an Antwerp, Belgium-based diamond trading company. The hearing will give De Beers, which is 45% owned by Anglo American Plc, an opportunity to defend its rough- diamond distribution policy. "De Beers is fully cooperating with the Belgian competition authorities in their investigation," Lynette Gould, a London-based spokeswoman for De Beers, said in an e-mail. "The position of the auditor goes against two earlier decisions of the European Commission dismissing a complaint from Spira against De Beers." The European Commission, the European Union's antitrust regulator, closed a six-year investigation in January 2007 after De Beers agreed to be more transparent about the way it selects customers. The commission said at the time that more disclosure on the company's "supplier of choice" policy addressed the main competition concerns of complaints it received. General Motors Co. said Friday that costs related to the termination benefits of staff at its Belgian Opel plant in Antwerp are expected to be around Eur400 million and anticipates these charges to result in future cash expenditures. "A significant number of employees are expected to accept the terms and leave before the end of June 2010," GM said in a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The Antwerp plant employs around 2,600 staff. On April 27, GM's core European Opel unit said in a statement that about 1,250 employees will accept redundancy packages and leave their jobs before the end of June at the latest. The announcement came one day after the company reached an agreement with Labour unions on the closure of the Antwerp part as part of a wide-ranging turnaround plan for the operations. GM plans to streamline the loss-making business and slash European capacity by around 20%. A memorandum of understanding between GM Europe and Labour representatives foresees that both parties will cooperate in a working group led by the Flemish government to find an outside investor for the plant. The search will run until the end of September. THE NETHERLANDS In Amsterdam the AEX ended the trading session Friday at 312.35, down 4.24% for the day. Post and delivery company TNT booked an 88% increase in net profit in the first three months of this year, due to a recovery at its express arm, cost cuts and more working days. Net profit reached €143m, compared with €76m in the year-earlier period. Turnover rose 12% to €2.75bn. The company said it sees 'a modest improvement' in the economy and that express volumes, revenues and results are expected to be 'well above' 2009 levels. 'The profit recovery testifies to the hard work of TNT's employees around the world,' said CEO Peter Bakker in a statement. 'However, as a guide for full year performance, this quarter also needs to be understood as having benefited from extra working days.' In April, Bakker said TNT is considering either a stock exchange listing or a partnership for its mail unit, which has been hit by falling volumes. The receivers winding up the affairs of bankrupt bank DSB have decided not to sell off the bank's loan portfolio, the Leeuwarder Courant newspaper reports on Monday. Instead the receivers are setting up a management company to look after the 150,000 consumer loans and mortgages, the paper said. Receiver Rutger Schimmelpenninck told the paper a sale at the moment would not generate enough cash, despite talks with a number of parties over the past few months. Some 200 DSB workers are still employed at the bank's headquarters in Wognum dealing with ongoing business, such as the loans. The performance-related bonuses paid to bank traders lead them to take risks and should be tackled, according to researchers from the government's CPB economic think tank in a new report. Regulating senior executive bonuses is not enough because it is traders, not managers who are responsible for risk taking, the report said. Traders earn large bonuses if they make high profits but face no sanctions if they make a mistake, the researchers said. This means they are driven to take risks. The researchers suggest setting limits to the size of bonuses and making them more dependent on long-term performance as a way of increasing controls. The number of people prepared to work until the formal state pension age of 65 has more than doubled in four years to 42%, according to new research by the national statistics office CBS. But 40% of workers aged over 55 said they were not prepared to work on until they reached the age of 65. At the moment, only one in seven of the over-60s in the Netherlands is still in work. An increase in the state retirement age from 65 to 67 is set to be a central issue in the June 9 general election. Construction industry workers are least likely to be willing to work until they are 65. Farm workers and teachers were happiest to work on. But only 13% said they were willing to work past the age of 65, even though an increase in the pension age is backed by most political parties. SWITZERLAND Zurich's SMI completed a frenetic week on 6,205.63, a dip of 2.85% for Friday alone. Switzerland's main airline, which was taken over by Germany's Lufthansa in 2005, recorded an operative loss of SFr10 million ($9.06 million) in the first quarter of this year. The strong Swiss currency and rising fuel prices are to blame for the loss, according to a company statement on Wednesday. Twelve months ago Swiss posted a SFr63 million operative profit. Swiss chief executive Harry Hohmeister said he was optimistic that business will recover in the second half of the year. Earlier this week Lufthansa announced an operative loss of €330 million for the first quarter of 2010. Swiss Re has posted a first-quarter net profit of $158 million (SFr177 million) despite two major natural disasters affecting its property and casualty business. This is a 22% increase compared with the same period last year when the Zurich-based company posted a $130 million net profit. Earnings per share were SFr0.49 ($0.44), up from SFr0.45 in the year-earlier period, the company said. Swiss Re added that the result was affected by high natural catastrophe losses from Chile's huge earthquake on February 27 which killed 486 people, and windstorm Xynthia that swept across western Europe on February 26-28, causing severe damage in Spain and France. Operating income in Swiss Re's property and casualty business was down 69% at $259 million in the quarter. Life and health insurance brought $345 million. The April 20 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, which has caused a major oil spill, will lead to an estimated market loss of between $1.5 billion and $3.5 billion, Swiss Re said. It estimated its own loss from the disaster would be around $200 million before tax. The Swiss SVME Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, rose to its third-highest level ever in April, a joint report from the SVME Association of Purchasing and Materials Management and Credit Suisse showed Monday. The PMI rose to 65.9 from 65.5 in March, while economists had forecast drop to 64.5. The seasonally-adjusted PMI has thus remained consistently above the 50-point growth threshold for eight months now. A breakdown of data showed that Swiss manufacturing output rose for the ninth consecutive month in April on a monthly basis, though the momentum slowed somewhat. Growth in backlogs of orders also eased in the month. Corporate purchasing was up again for the eighth month in a row in April, but the rate of increase settled back compared with March's record. The purchasing prices sub index marked its highest level since July 2008. The index has now remained above the 50-point growth threshold for eight successive months. The market is obviously feeling a certain amount of price pressure, the report said. The employment component edged up to show second consecutive rise in industrial employment, which points to a trend reversal on the Labour market. The Swiss consumer price index, or CPI, rose 1.4% year-on-year in April, unchanged from March, the Federal Statistical Office said Thursday. Economists had forecast the inflation rate to ease to 1.3%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices climbed 0.9% in April, following just 0.1% rise in March. Prices rose slightly faster than the expected 0.8% growth. AUSTRIA In Vienna the ATX headed into the weekend on 2,311.77, a Friday drop of 3.33%. The chiefs of Austria's biggest banks ensured they would not reduce investments in financially struggling Greece. Raiffeisenzentralbank (RZB) boss Walter Rothensteiner said after a meeting with the heads of Austria's other four major banks and People's Party (ÖVP) Finance Minister: "We will not speculate against Greece, and we won't reduce our investments in the country." Austrian banks have invested four to five billion Euros in the European Union (EU) member state which is set to receive 110 billion Euros from the EU's Eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Eurozone describes the 16 EU states which have the Euro as their currency. Austria will provide around 2.3 billion Euros. Pröll said there was "no alternative and no plan b" to supporting Greece financially. But he warned: "The time of cheating and tricking is over for Greece." Pröll added: "Those sums are loans, not gifts. The current situation is painful for Greece, and the action plan is necessary for Europe and reasonable for Austria. The economy and jobs are what this is all about." The minister last week suggested banks should contribute in helping Greece, but said after meeting the heads of Austria's five main bank institutes: "Banks which already needed state aid should not handle more money to assist Greece. This would be the wrong decision." Pröll however appealed to bank bosses to hold their promises not to withdraw activities from Greece. Austria's economy will recover in the second quarter of this year, a leading think tank has predicted Thursday. Vienna-based Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) said the country's industrial branch's engagement will soar by three% to 79% compared to the first three months of 2010. WIFO said engagement will continue to increase. "The positive aspects should outweigh negative developments over the next few months," a spokesman for the body said. WIFO also said that the construction branch is currently "stagnating on an average level", while the tourism branch was doing better than in early 2009. Bank Austria (BA) chief economist Stefan Bruckbauer said last month he expected the country's industrial branch to grow "by at least four%" this year compared to its performance last year. WIFO recently corrected its 1.5% growth forecast for the Austrian economy made last December to 1.3% recently, while the Higher Studies (IHS) - Austria's other leading think tank - said it would stick to its 1.3% year on year growth prediction. Austrians did more than 300 million hours of overtime last year, labour market experts have said. Upper Austrian Labour Chamber (AKOÖ) president Johann Kalliauer said Thursday that around a third of the 314 million overtime hours was unpaid work. He further added that the creation of approximately 60,000 new full-time positions was hindered by the massive amount of unpaid extra work done by people across the country every year. Experts at the Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) said an extra four% of positions would be created by cutting down the weekly working hours of Austrians by an average of ten%. Official figures presented by the labour ministry earlier this week showed that around 4.9% of people living in Austria were out of work last month. The European Commission (EC) announced Thursday it expected Austria's jobless rate to reach 5.1% this year and 5.4% next year, while the overall unemployment rate in the European Union's (EU) 27 states is feared to soar by an overall 10.7% year on year in 2010. Austria's 4.9% is the second-lowest rate in the EU after the Netherlands where 4.1% have no job. Lower Austrian prosecutors have raided offices at Vienna International Airport (VIA). Korneuburg state prosecutor Friedrich Köhl said dozens of documents have been confiscated. "It will probably take several weeks to examine them," he added. A spokesman for Flughafen Wien AG, the company managing VIA, claimed none of their offices were searched. He added it had to be seen whether the firm was an aggrieved party in the possible scam. Köhl said the searched offices belonged to a firm involved in the controversial Skylink project, adding that the flat of an employee was raided too. Flughafen Wien AG has been in the news for months over soaring costs of building a new terminal. Construction of the Skylink site was halted last June when magazines reported that costs could reach a whopping 900 million Euros instead of the initially announced 400 million Euros. SWEDEN In Stockholm the OMX ended the trading session at 944.57, down 3.34% for the Friday trading session alone. Corporate bankruptcies have continued to decline in Sweden, falling 25% in April compared to the same period last year. The figures, from business and credit information company UC, show a total of 493 companies in Sweden declared bankruptcy last month. In the first four months of 2010, the total number of bankruptcies was 2083, a decline of 19% from the same period in 2009. The improvement in the economy has increased the purchasing power of consumers and most sectors remain optimistic about the future, the report said. The five members of the Riksbank Executive Board, who attended the monetary policy committee meeting April 19, unanimously voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at record low of 0.25%, minutes showed Monday. The meeting held in the absence of Governor Stefan Ingves, who could not make his trip following the volcanic eruption in Iceland, was chaired by First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg. The Executive Board expects to begin raising the repo rate towards more normal levels with effect from the summer or early autumn. Four of the five Executive Board members supported this view. However, the members of the Executive Board differ slightly in their assessments of whether the repo rate should first be raised in July or September, meeting notes showed. Lars Svensson suggested that a different repo rate path is needed where the repo rate begins to be raised in December and is then raised at a slightly faster pace. "It was appropriate to leave the repo rate unchanged at 0.25% at the latest monetary policy meeting in April. I also believe that the forecast for the repo rate was reasonable," Ingves said in a separate release. "In my view we are now approaching such a situation and this is a factor that may weigh in favor of a repo-rate increase in July." On April 19, the rate-setting board decided to hold the lending rate at 0.75% and the deposit rate at negative 0.25%, with effect from 21 April 2010. Policymakers assessed that the Swedish economy will grow this year and that there appears to have been a turnaround in the Labour market. Swedish manufacturing activity accelerated in April, a report from the Swedbank/SILF said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers index or PMI for manufacturing stood at 64 in April, up from 61.1 in the previous month. This was the highest reading since 2006. A year earlier, the PMI reading was 38.8. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. Among the sub-indices of the PMI, the manufacturing production rose to 66.3 in April from 63.7 in March, while orders accounted for the biggest positive contribution to the PMI. The demand for Labour improved to the third consecutive month. The index of suppliers of raw materials and intermediate goods prices increased sharply in April, the index rose to 75.6 from 65.7 in March. Steel producer SSAB reported a quarterly profit of 83 million kronor ($11.34 million) on Tuesday, beating analyst expectations and a 215 million kronor loss in the same period last year. The company expects that demand for steel will remain strong in the second quarter. Sales amounted to 8.865 billion kronor compared with 8.035 billion kronor a year earlier. According to Reuters, analysts had on average expected a loss of 105 million kronor and turnover of 9.269 billion kronor. DENMARK Copenhagen's OMX rounded out the week Friday at 371.12, down a chunky 4.14% for the days' session. Bankruptcies for the month of April showed an increase of 26% over the same period last year and experts aren't surprised Figures from credit analysis group Experian showed that 575 companies went bust last month - up from the average monthly bankruptcy figures of around 210 just two years ago. Denmark's retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 2.9% on a monthly basis in March, faster than the 0.5% growth in the previous month, the Statistics Denmark said on Monday. This was the biggest level since September 2008. Retail sales for food and other groceries rose 2.5% annually in March, while sales for clothing surged 4.9%. Retail sales for other consumer goods were up 2.8%. Year-on-year, retail sales climbed 8.1% in March, compared to the 0.8% fall in the preceding month. Denmark's manufacturing activity growth slowed in April, Purchasing and Logistics Forum/DILF said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers index or PMI for manufacturing stood at 51.6 in April, down from 53.9 in the previous month. However, the PMI was expanded for the fourth successive month in April. The PMI for March was revised from 54.3 reported initially. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction. Novo A/S, which owns pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Novozymes, has more than weathered the financial crisis, which in 2008 stripped around 15 billion kroner of its value away. Since then the company has been churning forward, recouping 12 billion kroner of that loss in 2009 and having already increased its value by a whopping 23 billion kroner the first four months of this year. The rise in value is attributed to higher stock prices, share buy-back programs, larger profit margins and more aggressive financial backing from the Novo Nordisk Foundation. Members of a leading foundation supporting left-of-centre causes believe its demise was due to financial mismanagement The political left is mourning the demise of one of the movement's biggest financial supporters after Plum Foundation announced Friday it is filing for bankruptcy. The move follows reports of gross mismanagement by members of its board. According to Berlingske Tidende newspaper, the fund had assets of 300 million kroner when it was established in 1997 by Lise Plum, daughter of insulation company Rockwool's founder Henrik Johan Henriksen. The foundation's stated goal is to support human rights human rights, ecology, non-violent conflict resolution and democracy. The problems emerged last August, when Plums Økologifond, an organisation supporting organic farming that it helped to create, complained to the Civil Affairs Agency over what it believed were excessive administrative costs charged by the Plum Foundation.
In addition, it accused the Plum Foundation of not donating money to organic initiatives for a number of yearsCurrently, the Plum Foundation owes a reported 24 million kroner to tax authority SKAT and to Nordea Bank. Previous reports carried by Berlingske Tidende revealed that board members had allegedly directed foundation money to their own projects. It was also found that fees charged by director Christian Harlangamounted to the foundation's largest expense. Harlang was fired by a majority on the board last summer but appealed that decision to the Civil Affairs Agency. In November, the agency ruled to uphold the dismissal. An investigation by the Danish Bar and Law Society determined in December that Harlang had not violated any laws while head of the foundation. But now the foundation's board is deciding whether it will seek sue Harlang for depleting its funds, according to Berlingske Tidende. Harlang has denied all charges of wrongdoing. NORWAY In Oslo, the OBX finished the week Friday on 317.82, a session drop of 2.73% for the day. In his Labour Day speech at Lillehammer, Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg said that his government's estimates for unemployment would be reduced by 30,000 in the revised National Budget. This is 1 percentage point lower than we estimated a year ago, and shows that our measures in fighting unemployment has worked, the Prime Minister said. However, he cautioned that the fight was far from over: - Although our unemployment rate is the lowest in Europe, unemployment continues to grow in our neighbouring countries, and we must therefore continue our efforts to keep ours down, he said. Statoil's first quarter 2010 net operating income was NOK 39.6 billion, an 11% increase compared to NOK 35.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009. The quarterly result was mainly affected by a 48% increase in liquids prices measured in NOK and a 35% decrease in gas prices. Adjusted earnings in the first quarter of 2010 were NOK 38.9 billion. The 8% increase in adjusted earnings from first quarter 2009 to first quarter 2010 was primarily caused by the increase in prices for liquids and was only partly offset by reduced gas prices, lower entitlement volumes and lower results from oil trading. Net income in the first quarter of 2010 was NOK 11.1 billion, compared to NOK 4.0 billion in the first quarter of 2009. The 181% increase was mainly due to higher net operating income in International Exploration & Production, reduced losses on net financial items and a lower tax rate. Adjusted earnings after tax were NOK 12.1 billion in the first quarter of 2010. Adjusted earnings after tax exclude the effect of tax on net financial items and represent an effective adjusted tax rate of 69% in the first quarter of 2010. "I am pleased with the results in the first quarter. Our equity production has been high and oil prices have been rising. Despite weaknesses in the gas market our Natural Gas business has delivered solid results, as a consequence of high offtake from our customers and good trading performance," says Statoil's chief executive Helge Lund. "Project activity is maintained at a high level. In the first quarter we have sanctioned six new projects. Among them are important field developments like Gudrun and Marulk on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and the Chirag Oil Project in Azerbaijan. These projects are underpinning our long term growth ambitions," says Lund. Greek state bonds have been degraded to junk status. The Norwegian Petroleum Fund has NOK 10 billion invested in these bonds. In addition, the petroleum fund, Statens pensjonsfond - utland, probably owns shares in downgraded Greek banks, according to Stavanger Aftenblad. The downgrading last week happened after the financial solidity of Greek banks was rated as poor and without any immediate hope of improvement. FINLAND In Helsinki Friday, the OMX closed the day on 6,263.22, that was a hefty 4.30% drop for Friday's session alone. Thursday, the Statistics Finland announced that the new motor vehicle registrations increased 21% on an annual basis in April, compared to the 19.9% fall in the previous month. The new motor vehicle registrations totaled 21,973 in April, of which 11,464 were automobiles. The number of new passenger cars registered was 10,401 in April, which was up 39.7% from the previous year. The share of new diesel-driven passenger cars was 42.5%. In March, new passenger cats registrations fell 15.2% to 9,108. For the January to April period, new vehicle registrations climbed 0.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. During the period, new vehicle registrations totaled 66,225. Similarly, new passenger cars registrations grew 6.9%. The most common passenger car makes first registered in the January to April were Volkswagen, Toyota and Skoda, the statistical office said. Finnish business outlook balance indicator for manufacturing improved in April, a report by the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK showed on Thursday. The confidence indicator for manufacturing stood at 27 in April, up from 9 in January. In the latest survey, 32% of respondents in the manufacturing sector believed that the economy would improve in the next six months, while 5% of companies felt that the economy would deteriorate, the EK said. The construction confidence climbed in April. The construction business outlook indicator stood at 20 in April, up from minus 10 in January. Similarly, the confidence indicator for services improved to 8 in April from minus 1 in January. The Confederation of Finnish Industries' Business Tendency Survey is published four times a year. SPAIN Madrid's Ibex finished the week Friday on 9,046.10, down 3.28% for the day. Business conditions across the Spanish service sector remained fragile, reflecting the sustained weakness in the recession-hit economy, a survey by Markit Economics said Wednesday. The headline seasonally adjusted business activity index dipped slightly to 50.9 in April from 51.3 in March, indicating a marginal increase in activity for the second month in a row. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while one below 50 suggests contraction. New business growth in April was weaker than that seen in March. The overall demand remained weak though demand improved from some clients. Consequently, service providers started to work through outstanding business leading to a fall in backlogs. The latest fall has extended the period of decline to thirty-one month. Employment continued to decline in April and at the fastest pace in three months. Staffing levels had been declining since March 2008. Moreover, firms intensified job-shedding as a response to weak demand as well as to improve productivity. Input costs increased to its sharpest level since December 2008 and for the second consecutive month in April, though the rate of inflation was modest. Input price inflation was largely driven by higher fuel costs. Firms cut charges further as intense competition prevented them from passing on cost increases to clients. Output prices fell markedly, though at the slowest pace since August 2009. Optimism among panelists improved marginally in April, while the level of sentiment was the strongest since last August. "The Spanish service sector failed to gain momentum moving into the second quarter of 2010, with serious concerns remaining as to whether a broader economic recovery will get underway in the near-term," Markit said. "Panel members indicate that they are experiencing reductions in profit margins caused by a combination of weak pricing power and rising costs." The Bank of Spain forecast a 0.4% contraction for the economy this year, with severe corrections in household consumption and high debt accumulated by the private sector weighing down on growth. Economic data for the final quarter of 2009 showed that GDP shrank by 0.1%. Spanish consumer confidence indicator improved to 78.2 in April from 72.7 in the previous month, a report by the Official Credit Institute showed on Tuesday. A year earlier, the confidence indicator was 61.9. The index assessment for current situation stood at 50.6 in April, up from 45.7 in the preceding month. Meanwhile, expectations index climbed to 105.8 from 99.7 in March. Spanish unemployment dropped by 24,188 or 0.58% from the previous month in April, a report from the Labour Ministry showed on Tuesday. Thus, the registered unemployed totaled 4.14 million. Maravillas Rojo, the secretary general for Employment said, "The decline in unemployment, which occurs first in eight months, which contrasts with the increase by about 40,000 people in the same month of the last two years is a good thing in the context of the current complex situation.." The male unemployment fell by 1.2% to 2.08 million in April and female unemployment rose by 0.06% to 2.05 million. PORTUGAL The PSI General in Lisbon ended the day Friday on 2,327.30, a Friday dip of 2.93%. Thursday, the Statistics Portugal announced that the industrial turnover increased 16.2% on an annual basis in March, faster than the 9.5% growth in the previous month. A year earlier, industrial turnover was down 18.8%. On a monthly basis, industrial turnover was up 18.7% in March, after falling 2.7% in February. In the first quarter, industrial turnover grew 11.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. Meanwhile, employment, wages and hours worked decreased by 4.0%, and 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively in March compared to the previous year. Moody's Investors Service has indicated that it may cut Portugal's credit ratings as the country's public finance position has weakened due to widening budget deficits. The news has added to concerns that the Greek debt crisis is spreading. The rating agency said Wednesday that it has placed Portugal's Aa2 government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade, while the government's Prime-1 short-term rating was affirmed. In the event of a downgrade, Moody's expects that Portugal's Aa2 ratings would fall by one, or at most two, notches. The review of Portugal's ratings, which had been on negative outlook since October 2009, is expected to be concluded within a three-month time horizon. Moody's said Friday's rating action reflects the recent deterioration of Portugal's public finances as well as the economy's long-term growth challenges. "The review for possible downgrade will consider a repositioning of Portugal's ratings to reflect the potentially lasting deterioration in the government's debt metrics," said Anthony Thomas, Vice President-Senior Analyst in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.
Moody's said the weakening of Portugal's public finance position reflects the failure of successive administrations to consistently limit government budget deficits since Portugal joined the Eurozone at its inception. "More recently, however, the government's has reiterated its objective to achieve or even surpass the deficit reduction targets published in its latest Stability and Growth Programme," Thomas pointed out. "The well-structured debt profile means that refinancing risks are modest." "Portugal's growth problem is related more to its low productivity than its high costs per se," he said. "The lack of a devaluation option creates stronger, but not impossible, headwinds for the country's economic recovery." Moody's believes that increased risk discrimination in the financial markets may raise Portugal's financing costs for some time to come. The rating agency also expects that debt service will remain very affordable in the near to medium term. Portugal's growth challenges plus large fiscal deficits have led market participants to compare Portugal to Greece. On April 24, citing amplified fiscal risks, S&P lowered its long-term local and foreign currency sovereign issuer credit ratings on Portugal to A- from A+, while it cut the local and foreign currency short-term ratings to A-2 from A-1. The ratings agency also said that the outlook is negative. ITALY Italian stocks declined for a fourth day, extending this week's slump on the FTSE MIB Index, as the biggest monthly increase in US employment in April failed to ease concern that the debt crisis in Greece will spread. The benchmark FTSE MIB Index declined 637.75, or 3.3%, to 18,846.18. The gauge dropped 13% this week, the worst performance since March 2009. London Stock Exchange Group Plc, which operates the Milan stock exchange, temporarily suspended trading Friday after a "technical problem." Eni dropped 3.7% to 15.31 Euros and UniCredit declined 3.3% to 1.63 Euros. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA declined 4% to 2.01 Euros, bringing this week's slump to 20%. Italcementi SpA retreated 7% to 7.17 Euros. Saipem SpA, Europe's biggest provider of oilfield services by market value, fell 4% to 25.57 Euros. Italy's service sector activity expanded significantly in April, a report published by Markit Economics showed Wednesday. The Markit/ADACI business activity index came in at 54.5 in April, down from 55.3 in March. The index stayed below the expected level of 56. Although moderating since March, the pace of output growth signaled by the index was the second-sharpest since October 2007. A reading above 50 suggests expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Markit said, "The Italian service sector recovery lost momentum in April, but nevertheless remained on course, and shrugged off any ill effects from the cloud of volcanic ash which disrupted travel throughout Northern Europe." Italy's manufacturing sector increased to the biggest level since May 2007, a report by the Markit Economics said on Monday The Markit/ADACI purchasing managers index or PMI for manufacturing stood at a seasonally adjusted 54.3 in April, up from 53.7 in the previous month. The latest PMI was the highest level in almost three years. Economists expected a reading of 54.2. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. Manufacturing output increased for the seventh consecutive month in April and at the sharpest pace since May 2007. Similarly, new orders growth also climbed to the seventh straight month in April. Andrew Self, economist at Markit said, "Despite this, the underlying data indicate that the recovery remains fragile. Demand for consumer goods deteriorated, while input price inflation hit a nine-and-a-half year high." "Further job losses, and continued evidence of spare capacity also highlighted ongoing weaknesses in the sector." he added. GREECE The Athex Composite in Athens closed out the trading session and the week Friday on 1,630.47, down for the session 2.86%. The lawmakers in Greece on Thursday approved the strict austerity measures demanded by the European Union and the International Monetary fund in exchange for a 110 billion Euro emergency bailout loan, ignoring violent public protests outside the parliament building. The measure was passed in a 172 to 121 vote in the Greek parliament. Three lawmakers from Prime Minister George Papandreou's governing PASOK party abstained from voting on the bill. The three Socialist deputies were later expelled from the ruling party's parliamentary team for abstaining in the vote. Ahead of the vote, Prime Minister Papandreou told the parliament that the future of Greece depended on their approval of the measure, and reminded lawmakers that the country's "economy, democracy and social cohesion are being put to the test." "The emergency measures are the condition for us to regain our credibility and win time, lost time. The time to make the big changes that were delayed for years," Papandreou told the parliament. "The situation Friday is simple - either we vote and implement the deal or we condemn the country to bankruptcy." Soon after the measure was passed in the parliament, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou congratulated the lawmakers for taking the tough decision of approving cost-cutting measures, which according to him was absolutely necessary to avoid bankruptcy. "We have done what was necessary, not what was easy," Papaconstantinou said after the vote. "Without these measures, we'd be thrown into the deepest recession this country has ever known." As lawmakers were voting on the measure, thousands of protesters gathered outside the parliament protesting against the proposed cost-cutting measures. Witnesses said the gathering outside the parliament on Thursday comprised students, teachers, public and private sector workers and pensioners. Ever since the Greek government readied the package of austerity measures for tabling in the parliament for approval, the country has witnessed violent protests and strikes by public and private sector workers. The unpopular cost-cutting measures has prompted workers' unions to call for a series of industrial actions, along with protest rallies. Thursday's parliamentary vote came a day after three people were killed in Athens on Wednesday when protesters set fire to a bank during the nationwide general strike. Fire-fighters said the bodies were found inside the burnt out building while another building was also damaged in the fire. Prior to Wednesday's incident, thousands of Greek public sector workers launched a 48-hour strike on Tuesday in protest against the new austerity measures. Transport workers joined the strike on Wednesday, paralyzing normal life across the country. The developments followed approval by the European Union and the IMF for an unprecedented $146 billion joint aid package to Greece on Sunday. The approval came after Greece made a formal request for the immediate activation of the crisis loans promised by the EU and IMF to help it tackle ballooning debt and massive deficits. The joint EU-IMF 110 billion Euro bailout loan would be paid over three years to Greece. While the EU has agreed to provide 80 billion Euros as its share of the bailout package, the rest will come from the IMF. The EU has indicated that the first part of the loan will be released before 19 May, when Greece is scheduled to make its next debt repayment. The IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn has said that his agency would likely approve its share of the loan later this week. In order to gain access to the loan package, the Greek government was asked to bring about wide-ranging austerity measures, including spending cuts and tax increases. The Greek government has already admitted that it can no longer raise money from international markets after borrowing costs reached prohibitive levels. The new cost-cutting measures include scrapping bonus payments for public sector workers, capping annual holiday bonuses and removing them altogether for higher earners, banning increases in public sector salaries and pensions for at least three years, increasing VAT from 21% to 23%, raising taxes on fuel, alcohol and tobacco by 10% and taxing illegal construction. Currently, Greece's debt is at a staggering €300-billion, with its deficit rising to more than 12% of national output last year. With the deficit currently estimated to at 13.6% of GDP, Prime Minister George Papandreou's government has been under immense pressure from the European Union to take immediate steps to address the crisis, as all EU member states are required to keep their budget deficits to 3% of GDP or under. Greece is expected to face a crunch situation later in May, when it faces billions of Euros in debt redemption. However, recent downgrading of Greece's credit ratings by international ratings agencies have made it more difficult and expensive for the Eurozone member-nation to borrow money from the financial markets. Since the financial crisis erupted, Greece announced at least two sets of austerity measures to help it reduce the budget gap to 2.8% of GDP in 2012 from the current level. The austerity measures came after Prime Minister George Papandreou was left with no option but to adopt cost cutting measures for the third time in as many months to convince European allies and investors that it can bring the region's biggest budget gap under control. Last Friday, Papandreou told his parliament that the joint bailout package offered by the EU and IMF in exchange for stricter austerity measures were essential for the survival of the country. Insisting that cost-cutting measures were required to bring the country's budget deficit down by 10% by 2013, Papandreou stressed that such measures were essential for preventing the country from collapsing under the burden of massive debts. The Greek PM also acknowledged that the negotiations with the IMF and EU were tough, but admitted the opposition his government was facing from the Greek public was even tougher. His remarks came as negotiations on the bailout package were progressing between representatives of the EU, IMF and the Greek government in Athens. |
| The UK Market
Did it follow the Global trend ..... | The sovereign debt crisis continued to drive London markets sharply lower on Friday, with the FTSE 100 recording its biggest daily loss in five months. Capita was among the casualties amid fears that the UK election had provided the worst possible result for outsourcers. "The election out-turn of a hung parliament probably knocks a couple of percentage points off organic medium-term growth prospects and is likely to delay the award of efficiency-driven outsourcing projects out as far a 2012," said Shore Capital. Hopes that outsourcers would benefit from state budget cuts helped Capita outperform during the election campaign. Government spending already accounts for about half of group sales, according to JPMorgan Cazenove. But a contract hiatus looked set to hit Capita particularly hard. Its organic growth had been slowing for two years and to meet forecasts management would have to deliver new business wins or accelerate its acquisition programme, he said. With Capita shares trading at nearly 20 times earnings, full-year earnings downgrades were likely to put pressure on this premium valuation, Shore Capital said. The broker cut Capita off its "buy" list, while JPMorgan Cazenove started coverage with a "neutral" stance. The wider market extended its sharpest sell-off since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The FTSE 100 hit a three-month low, down 2.6%, or 137.97 points, to 5,123.03. Volume also matched the levels last seen during the Lehman crisis. About 4.5bn blue-chip stocks were traded across the main exchanges compared with a daily average of 1.7bn. For the week, the Footsie had dropped 7.8%, its biggest weekly decline since March. That cut the total value of index members by £110.4bn. Banks led the market lower for a second day on fears that the confidence crisis will freeze wholesale funding markets. Royal Bank of Scotland slid 5.7% to 45½p, even after delivering first-quarter earnings that were slightly better than consensus expectations. Lloyds Banking Group was down 5.5% to 53½p, while Barclays was 6% weaker to 283¾p. Contagion risk also weighed against the insurers. Aviva was down 4.8% to 303½p and Legal & General lost 5.4% to 75½p, even though analysts said its government bond exposure looked relatively modest against continental European peers. Companies with refinancing requirements provided another target for selling. Punch Taverns fell 12.8% to 75½p, leading the mid-cap loser board, while Enterprise Inns dropped 11% to 107½p ahead of interim results due on Tuesday. Enterprise had been expected to outline a refinancing for its £1bn of bank debt, which has just 12 months to run. Yell Group lost 11% to 107½p, not helped by poor results this week from its main rivals in the US and Spain. Back among the blue-chips, Thomas Cook lost 7.2% to 215¾p and British Airways was 6.1% weaker to 192¼p ahead of results next week. BT Group fell 6.3% to 110p as pension deficit worries returned. Wm Morrison faded 4.4% to 258p after Oriel Securities downgraded to "reduce" in reaction to the supermarket's recent trading update showing an unexpected sales slowdown. ITV retreated 8.6% to 55¾p after Adam Crozier, its new chief executive, gave a cautious view on second-half trading. Just eight of the top 350 UK stocks ended the session higher. Among them were Randgold Resources, up 1% to 56¼p, and Petropavlovsk, 3.7% higher at £10.94. Rockhopper Exploration led Falklands oil prospectors sharply higher on a positive drill report from its Sea Lion well. Shares in Rockhopper jumped 55% to 145p after it said an oil reservoir announced on Thursday appeared to be of good quality. The rise took the company's two-day gain to 292% as analysts at Matrix Corporate Capital said the news "dramatically changes the expectations for future exploration in the North Falklands". Desire Petroleum rose 12.2% to 69p while Falkland Oil and Gas took on 1.3% to 158½p and Borders & Southern Petroleum gained 3.7% to 56p. Liberty, the London department store operator, dropped 26% to 227½p after it rejected two separate cash bids pitched at just 185p and 186p per share. MWB Group, Liberty's majority shareholder, fell 6.3% to 37¾p. Tanfield, the cherrypicker-maker, lost 21.2% to 26¼p after it posted an operating loss for 2009 and said that equipment rental companies were "unlikely to lift their moratorium on spend during 2010". Carpathian, the owner of a failed shopping centre development in Latvia, fell 15.3% to 0.16 of a penny after reporting a 60% drop in its annual net asset value. West Africa-focused mining group Goldstone Resources rose 14.5% to 5¼p after entering a strategic alliance with Australian peer Bendigo Mining. Bendigo agreed to pay 6½p a share for a 20% stake in Goldstone, raising £2.1m. |
| Asia Pacific Regional Markets
Did they set the tone or follow the lead ..... | JAPAN Tokyo stocks fell sharply on Friday for the second consecutive day as plunges in both Wall Street and the euro rattled investor confidence anew, pushing the Nikkei 225 Stock Average into negative territory for 2010. The Nikkei fell 331.10 points, or 3.1%, to 10,364.59, following Thursday's 3.3% slide. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues also fell 24.98 points, or 2.6%, to 931.74, with all 33 subindexes ending negative. Trading volume was very strong, totaling over 3.1 billion shares--one of the highest tallies of the year. While Japanese corporate fundamentals continue to improve, the Nikkei's performance may nevertheless remain lackluster through the May 19 Greece debt reimbursement deadline The Nikkei surrendered 6.3% over the holiday-shortened week, slipping to a minus 1.7% performance for the year. Selling was brisk from the opening bell, with several bellwether shares such as Canon going ask-only for much of the first 30 minutes of trading due to order imbalance. Electronics, auto and shipping sectors were particularly weak early on, with Sony closing off 3.2% to Y3,060, Panasonic down 2.5% to Y1,310, Honda Motor down 2.6% to Y3,030, and Nippon Yusen surrendering 3.8% to Y3,050. Several sectors finished well over 3.0% lower, much like the previous session. News and earnings reports also continued to factor into both individual and index-moving shares. Fast Retailing ended down 6.0% to Y13,040 after saying late Thursday that April same-store sales at its Uniqlo casual clothing chain fell 12.4% on-year, the second straight month of double-digit on-year decline. Game maker Nintendo, principally traded on the Osaka bourse, closed down 7.7% at Y28,300 after reporting its first net profit fall in six years for the fiscal year ended March after Thursday's market close. The firm also forecast another net profit decline for the current year due to declining game console sales. Shares had opened down 13%. Sanyo Electric lost 3.3% to Y145 after releasing earnings Thursday afternoon as well. The firm also forecast its first net profit in three years. One analyst at a Japanese brokerage noted that competition from Samsung Electronics is putting pressure on Sanyo to accept lower prices to maintain its global market share in key product areas. On the Osaka Securities Exchange, June Nikkei 225 futures ended down 250 points, or 2.3% at 10,430. SOUTH KOREA South Korean shares closed down Friday with offshore investors' net daily sales hitting a record after US stocks plunged amid lingering worries over European debt fears, but the index trimmed early losses on the back of bargain hunting by local investors. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, dropped 37.21 points, or 2.2%, to 1647.50, its lowest closing since March 5. It fell to as low as 1625.83 in the morning. Foreigners offloaded a net KRW1.2 trillion worth shares, the largest daily net sales since April 30, 1998, when the Korea Exchange started logging foreigners' daily stock trading volume. Domestic institutions and local retail investors bought a net KRW504.5 billion and KRW483.2 billion, respectively, helping the Kospi recover above the 200-day moving average around 1630. Financial stocks were hit the hardest again, tracking their US peers. KB Financial Group tumbled 5.1% to KRW48,600 and Shinhan Financial Group declined 2.4% to KRW44,300. Among brokerages, Woori Investment & Securities fell 4.3% to KRW14,650 and Mirae Asset Securities dropped 3.4% to KRW50,600. Bellwether Samsung Electronics declined 2.5% to KRW794,000 and Hyundai Motor, the country's largest car maker, dropped 4% to KRW131,000. Posco, the world's fourth largest steelmaker by output, lost 2.7% to KRW472,500. Bucking the trend, Ssangyong Motor rose 2.5% to KRW12,450 after news that South Korea's smallest carmaker by sales will find a new owner through an open bidding that starts Monday. Hankook Tire added 1.7% to KRW24,550 on expectations that a recent fall in natural rubber prices may help improve the company's margin spread. HONG KONG Hong Kong stocks declined 1.06% on Friday to close out their worst weekly fall in more than five months. The benchmark Hang Seng retreated 213.12 points to 19,920.329, closing below the 20,000-point mark for the first time since mid-February. The China Enterprises Index of top locally listed companies fell 0.61% to 11,379.56. Index heavyweight HSBC fell 4.3% to HK$73.55. Retailer Esprit, which earns most of its revenue in Europe, was the worst-performing blue chip of the day, falling 5.1% to HK$49.65. Chinese developers rebounded on bargain hunting after falling in recent sessions, traders said. Mainland property developer China Overseas rose 2.7% to HK$14.30 after losing 9.5% since Monday, and China Resources Land rose 3.6% to HK$13.68 after falling 8.8% over the same period. Swire Pacific bucked the downtrend, rising 5.1% to HK$85.20, after it shelved the IPO of its property unit because of weak property market conditions. CHINA Chinese shares fell again Friday on Greece debt concerns after a record overnight loss on Wall Street, ending the week down 6.3%. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index lost 51.32 points, or 1.9%, to close at 2,688.38. The Shenzhen Composite Index for China's smaller second exchange shed 2.2% to 1,064.17. Resource heavyweights weighed on the benchmark after commodity prices fell. Petroleum and Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, dropped 3.4% to 9.01 RMB, while PetroChina Ltd., Asia's biggest oil and gas producer, declined by 2.4% to 11.04 RMB. China Shenhua Energy Ltd., the country's biggest coal producer, gave up 2.7% to 23.64 RMB. Airline shares lost ground on worries a global economic slowdown might cut demand for flights. China Southern Airlines Co. tumbled 5.6% to 7.8 RMB, while Air China Co., the country's biggest international airline, lost 4.7% to 12.29 RMB. But gold miners bucked the downward trend on rising bullion prices. Zhongjin Gold Corp. jumped 4.7% to 63.79, while Zijin Mining Group Co. gained 3.8% to 8.17 RMB. TAIWAN Taiwan stocks ended Friday with a 0.16% loss after government funds stepped in to bring the market back from a more than 2% slide triggered by worries over a European credit crunch and a slump in Wall Street. The government of Taiwan is known to intervene in the stock market in times of volatility, although more usually around election time. Taiwan's main TAIEX share index was down more than 2% intraday before ending the session down 12.38 points at 7,567.10. The electronics sub-index was flat, while the financial sub-index lost 1.16%. Hon Hai Precision Industry, the island's top electronics parts maker, and other major exporters led the decline. Hon Hai lost 1.06% and PC vendor Asustek Inc slid 3.14%. Chipmaker United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) was one bright spot, rising 0.34%. Its April sales are due out later on Friday. Taiwan's listed companies are required to release their April sales by next Monday, but that may not be enough to support the market, analysts said. Tu said the TAIEX could be volatile next week, but saw initial support at the yearly moving average near 7,500 points. Another drag on the market is risk aversion among foreign investors, who have offloaded T$44 billion ($1.4 billion) worth of Taiwan shares so far this month as of Thursday. THE PHILIPPINES The local stock market ended the week in negative territory as heavy losses in Wall Street sparked a sell-off in Asian bourses. The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index fell by as much as 3% during the session, but bargain hunting helped it trim its losses. The PSEi closed down 25.77 points or 0.81% to 3,142.06. The broader all-share index also fell 10.75 points or 0.54% to 1,966.77. Among subindices, only the industrial sector advanced. The property sector, on the other hand, was down the most. Market breadth was negative, with losers outnumbering gainers, 80 to 38. There were 54 issues unchanged. A total of 1.46 billion shares worth P4.2 billion were traded. Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) was the most active stock by value, declining 3.4% to P42. Of the 9.18 billion shares traded on BPI, 4.92 billion were cross transactions. Second most active was Aboitiz Power Corp., which gained 3.4% to P15. Aboitiz Power has reported a 19-fold increase in its first-quarter net income to P7.4 billion, thanks to earnings contribution of assets it acquired last year, and a non-recurring gain.
Meantime, Aboitiz Power's parent, Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc., closed higher by 1.6% to P15.50 after it announced a 6-fold jump in earnings for the first quarter. SINGAPORE Singapore share prices ended lower on Friday for a fifth straight day of decline on worries over the sovereign debt troubles in Europe. The Straits Times Index had started the day down 2.1%, but bargain hunting in the closing hours of trade pared initial steep losses. The STI ended 0.7% or 18.54 points lower at 2,821.11. In the broader market, losers beat gainers 473 to 97. Overall volume was 2.14 billion shares worth S$2.31 billion. The benchmark index ended the week down 153.5 points, or 5.16%, this week. Singapore shares at one stage fell to the lowest since March 4, with DBS sliding 2.1% after Southeast Asia's biggest bank disappointed the market with its first-quarter profit. Smaller rival United Overseas Bank was down 3.1% and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp posted a smaller loss of 1.04% as their results were seen beating market forecasts. MALAYSIA Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended lower Friday but mild bargain-hunting in selected bluechips saw the key index closing a shade higher, dealers said. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index recovered to close 1.02 points higher at 1,332.89 after opening 13.16 points lower at 1,318.71. However, most investors remained concerned over the impact of Greece's sovereign debt crisis on global economic recovery. The Finance Index fell 31.35 points to 11,957.91, Industrial Index declined 1.8 points to 2,723.46 and the Plantation Index dipped 18.89 points to 6,380.16. The FBM Emas Index declined 4.86 points to 8,938.73, FBM70 fell 13.56 points to 8,726.99 and the FBM Ace Index erased 45.92 points to 3,939.43. Decliners outpaced advancers 522 to 205 while 234 counters were unchanged, 406 untraded and 26 others were suspended. Turnover rose to 938.328 million shares, worth RM1.814 million, compared with Thursday's 899.053 million shares valued at RM1.578 billion. Among actives, Talam Corp rose one sen to 14.5 sen, BJCORP-LC increased seven sen to RM1.11, Berjaya Corp gained 10 sen to RM1.59 and Maxbiz Corp added 7.5 sen to 10.5 sen. Heavyweights, Maybank fell three sen to RM7.55, Sime Darby declined one sen to RM8.57, CIMB lost four sen to RM14.18 and Maxis shed five sen to RM5.26. The Main market volume surged to 785.193 million shares, valued at RM1.755 billion, from 751.792 million shares, worth RM1.534 billion, Thursday. Volume on the ACE market declined to 45.125 million units, worth RM8.042 million, from 62.919 million units, valued at RM12.694 million, on Thursday. Warrants transacted advanced to 71.977 million shares, worth RM14.210 million, from 60.052 million shares, worth RM10.837 million, previously. Consumer products accounted for 47.274 million shares traded on the main market; industrial products 132.477 million; construction 46.575 million; trade and services 260.393 million; technology 37.202 million; infrastructure 18.728 million; finance 78.075 million; hotels 18.239 million; properties 123.120 million; plantations 20.829 million; mining 10,000; REITs 2.128 million; and, closed/fund 143,600. THAILAND Thai stocks fell to a one-week low on Friday as investors became less hopeful of an end to political protests plaguing the economy, and euro zone debt worries dealt a blow to regional bourses despite strong quarterly results. In Thailand, anti-government protesters said on Friday they would stay on the streets of Bangkok until the prime minister fixed a date to dissolve parliament. Foreign investors were sellers of Thai shares worth a combined 7.2 billion Baht ($223 million) on Tuesday and Thursday in a trading week shortened by two holidays. Foreign selling continued on Friday morning amid the political stalemate. Thailand's SET index ended 2.1% lower, Southeast Asia's second-worst performer on the day. It outperformed other regional bourses on the week due to a strong gain on Tuesday when the government's offer of an early election briefly eased tensions. Advanced Info Service fell 1.3% after the top mobile phone operator reported a 9% rise in quarterly earnings, after a recovery in the economy pushed up service revenue and demand for mobile data. INDONESIA Indonesia's Jakarta Composite index dropped 71.28 points, or 2.5%, to close at 2,739.33. The measure fell 7.8% this week, the biggest slump since the week ending Nov. 21, 2008. Energy companies PT Bumi Resources, Asia's biggest exporter of power-station coal, fell 2.1% to Rp 2,300 Rupiah. PT Elnusa, an oil services company, retreated 4.9% to Rp 485. Crude oil for June delivery tumbled to an 11-week low, falling 3.6% to $77.11 a barrel in New York Thursday. The contract was at $77.41 a barrel in afterhours trading as of 4:02 p.m. Jakarta time. A lower oil price reduces the appeal of alternative fuels such as coal. PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations, a rubber and palm oil producer, fell 4.2% to Rp 455, the sharpest decrease since Dec. 15. PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia retreated 4.9% to Rp 8,700. Rubber Futures in Tokyo slipped as much as 7.2% to the lowest level since Dec. 16 before settling at 262.6 Yen per kilogram. PT Barito Pacific, which owns Indonesia's only ethylene maker, plunged 5.1% to Rp 1,120, the biggest decrease since Oct. 28, 2009. The shares dropped after Barito said it signed an agreement to buy a 49% stake in an Indonesian oil and gas company. PT Medco Energi Internasional, the nation's biggest listed oil company, fell 1.8% to Rp 2,775. Medco and Mitsubishi Corp. expect to complete the construction of an LNG plant on Sulawesi island in 2015 from a previous target of 2014, Evita Legowo, director general of oil and gas at the Indonesian energy ministry said Friday. The Rupiah, meanwhile, had its worst week since June as concern Europe's debt crisis would hamper a global economic recovery drove investors from riskier assets and bolstered demand for dollars. The currency Friday dropped as much as 2.7% before recouping its losses on speculation the central bank intervened. Overseas investors sold $120 million more Indonesian stocks than they bought in the last four days, trimming this year's net purchases to $422 million and driving the Jakarta Composite Index of shares to a six-week low. The yield on Indonesia's 11% bonds Thursday jumped half a percentage point, the most for a benchmark 10-year note since March 2009. The currency dropped 2.3% this week to 9,225 per dollar as of 4:31 p.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It strengthened 0.1% Friday. Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa said the weakness would prove "temporary" and Indonesia does not need to intervene. Bank Indonesia "is always in the market to smooth the currency volatility," said Lindawati Susanto, head of foreign-exchange trading at PT Bank Resona Perdania in Jakarta. Europe's fiscal crisis may threaten banks in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and the UK, according to a report published Thursday by Moody's Investors Service. US stocks dropped the most in a year. The yield on Indonesia's 11% note due in November 2020 rose three basis points to 9.30%, according to prices provided by the Inter-Dealer Market Association. INDIA Indian shares ended lower Friday to post their biggest weekly drop since October 2009 on continued risk aversion in the wake of lingering fears of a debt crisis in Europe. However, Reliance Industries, the country's largest company by market value, gained 2.3% after the Supreme Court ruled in its favor in a five-year long dispute with Reliance Natural Resources over the pricing and allocation of gas from India's richest gas find. The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index lost 218.42 points, or 1.3%, to end at 16,769.11. The index, which traded between 16,684.13 and 16,939.58, lost 4.5% this week. The National Stock Exchange's 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty fell 72.80 points, or 1.4%, to close at 5018.05. Trading volume on the BSE rose to INR48.17 billion from Thursday's INR45.04 billion. Decliners outnumbered gainers 2,331 to 538, while 64 stocks were unchanged. A Dow Jones Newswires technical analysis suggests the benchmark Sensex could trade between 16,100 and 17,300 next week. The Sensex was broadly weak with 25 out of the 30 constituents ending lower. Billionaire Mukesh Ambani-operated Reliance Industries jumped as much as 4.9% in intraday trade, but later pared some gains to end at INR1,033.85, after India's top court ruled that the gas supply agreement between Mukesh Ambani and his younger brother Anil Ambani isn't binding. Anil Ambani-run Reliance Natural Resources, which is not a part of the Sensex, tanked 22.8% to INR52.75. The ruling allows Reliance Industries to sell natural gas from the D6 block in the Krishna-Godavari basin off India's east coast at the government-set price of $4.2 per million British thermal units. Reliance Natural had claimed that it was entitled to buy gas at $2.34 per mBtu as per a 2005 agreement between the siblings. The ruling battered the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group stocks, with Reliance Power slumping 9.0% to INR140.10 and Reliance Infrastructure losing 7.0% to end at INR979.70. Among other Sensex stocks, Tata Motors tumbled 6.4% to INR762.50, while property developer DLF fell 4.4% to INR285.05. ICICI Bank dropped 2.9% to INR876.45 and State Bank of India slid 3.6% to INR2,226.35. AUSTRALIA The Australian share market suffered broad-based losses Friday, capping off its biggest weekly fall in 17-months, after an intraday meltdown and weak close on Wall Street forced investors to reduce their exposure to a wide range of stocks. Bargain hunting lifted the local market well above its low, amid news that G7 finance ministers were planning a teleconference on Greek debt issues but renewed nervousness was evident before the reopening of European and US markets. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed down 92.5 points, or 2.0%, at 4480.7. The index hit an eight-month low of 4427.3 in early trading, before bouncing to 4551.0. Share trading volume remained extremely high at A$9.8 billion versus the A$6.0 billion average of April. On the charts, the index tested support from a potential broadening top pattern. A sustained break below 4430.0 would be very bearish, according to Dow Jones Newswires technical analysis. The European financial crisis continued to pummel offshore markets on Thursday and trading glitches were blamed for a harrowing sell-off on Wall Street, which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall more than 9.0% intraday. Although major US indexes closed well above their lowest levels, the DJIA shed 3.4% and the S&P 500 fell 3.2% - enough to keep global equity markets in panic mode for the short term. Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 3.3%, Korea's KOSPI was down 2.2% and China's Shanghai Composite was down 1.5% late Friday. US stock index futures were negative in late trading after rising intraday. Traders blamed deleveraging, or forced selling, for the opening slump in Australian shares. Major resources stocks saw an impressive intraday bounce but lost ground before the close. BHP Billiton finished down 10 cents at A$37.50 after bouncing from A$36.77 to A$38.27 and Rio Tinto closed down 1.1% at A$64.98 after bouncing from A$64.00 to A$67.10. Gold stocks were among the few winners, with Newcrest up 1.5% at A$31.49 and Kingsgate up 3.8% at A$8.45 after spot gold surged above US$1,200 on safe-haven buying overnight. Karoon Gas Australia zoomed up 14% to A$7.99 after Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to Buy on the back of encouraging drilling results from its Kronos-1 well in the Browse Basin. Paladin rose 1.4% to A$3.70 after Southern Cross reiterated its buy recommendation. Southern Cross also recommended investors "neutralize tactical underweight resources" positions and buy BHP near A$36.50. JB Hi-Fi rose 1.1% to A$18.98 after reiterating its fiscal 2010 profit guidance, while also saying that it expected fiscal 2011 to be a good year for sales and earnings growth. But all the major sectors of the market closed in the red. Major banks continued to suffer, with National Australia Bank down 5.0% to A$24.58, Westpac down 3.7% at A$24.17, Commonwealth Bank down 3.9% at A$53.00 and ANZ down 2.5% at A$21.90. On the charts, the S&P/ASX 200 financials index tested major support at 4450.0. Industrials underperformed, with Brambles down 3.5% to A$6.88, Qantas down 4.2% at A$2.53 and MAp Group down 5.0% at A$3.04. NEW ZEALAND Telecom fell to a new record low of $2.07 Friday before recovering to $2.13 after reporting a drop in earnings on a day equity markets around the globe were in turmoil. Investors tried to work out what happened when US stocks plunged 9% for less than half an hour before clawing their back to be down just over 3% down at the close - just as the New Zealand market prepared to open and absorb an earning report from one of its biggest listings. Telecom reported a 39% fall in third quarter net profit to $97 million, as the company faced increased competition, impacts of the economic slowdown, regulatory issues and problems with its XT mobile network. The result was seen as disappointing but expected. The benchmark NZX-50 index closed down 59.078 points, or 1.8%, at 3158.846. Turnover was worth $123.5 million. There were nine rises and 88 falls among the 119 stocks traded. Among the leaders, Fletcher Building fell below 800 to close down 20c at 795 and Contact Energy fell 13c to 607. SkyCity closed down 5c at 300 but recovered from the low of 296. Briscoe Group shares were untraded after reporting a 7.4% lift in first quarter sales to $96.8m. Thursday they closed at 131. Postie Plus fell 3c to 35. The Warehouse fell 7c to 362. Kathmandu fell 7c to 213. Fisher&Paykel Healthcare dropped 11c to 342, and the appliance stock fell 1c to 63. Air NZ fell 2c to 125 and Auckland Airport fell 3c to 193. Allied Farmers was unchanged at 7c after saying the properties owned by Hanover Finance had fallen in value. Guinness Peat Group fell 1c to 88c as it prepared for its annual meeting in London. Infratil fell 4c to 166 and Nuplex fell 4c to 325. Cavalier Carpets fell 16c to 260 and Abano Healthcare fell 15c to 515. Smartpay rose 0.2c to 4.1 and Heritage Gold rose 0.4c to 2.8. Pan Pacific Petroleum fell 5c to 31. |
| Global Commodities
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' ..... | Gold surged to its highest level in five months this week as panicking investors pulled money out of risky assets and piled into the precious metal. The largest physical gold exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, recorded its highest daily inflow since early 2009 on Thursday with total holdings hitting a record 1,185.78 tonnes. That sent spot gold to an intraday peak of $1,213.35 a troy ounce on Friday, its highest level in five months and up 2.9% on the week. Most analysts and traders believe it is only a matter of time before gold surpasses the all-time high of $1,226.10 set on December 3 last year. As you all know, I go much higher than that with my views and say Gold will reach 2,000 before 2011 is finished! When denominated in Euros, gold hit an all-time high of €962.20 this week. Other commodities' markets suffered a harrowing week as risk aversion swept the markets. In oil, Nymex June West Texas Intermediate fell $10 in the week to $75.11 a barrel, a 13% correction. That is the lowest price for the US benchmark since February. ICE June Brent, the European benchmark, dropped $9.17, or 10.5%, to $78.27. Base metals were hard hit after the decision by the Chinese government over the weekend to tighten lending standards further. Copper for delivery in three months' time dropped 5.9% in the week to $6,948.75 a tonne, while aluminium was down 7.1% at $2,087 a tonne. But cocoa bucked the trend. It has benefited from increased demand for chocolate as well as a disappointing crop. Liffe July cocoa hit a 33-year high of £2,430 a tonne on Friday. |
| Global Currencies
In for a Penny, in for a Pound ..... | 
The Euro and Sterling suffered and the Dollar and Yen soared in a week that saw violent price action on the world's currency markets. The Euro dropped to a 14-month low against the Dollar and an eight-year trough against the Yen as worries over the finances of Greece and other countries on the periphery of the Eurozone escalated. Initial relief over a joint €110bn rescue package for Athens from the International Monetary Fund and its Eurozone partners quickly dissipated. Fears heightened over possible contagion from the Greek financial crisis to other countries in the region sporting large deficits and high labour costs, such as Portugal and Spain. The yield on 10-year Greek debt reached a new high, and the price of insurance on Portuguese and Spanish government debt also set records. Pressure on the Euro was raised when Jean-Claude Trichet, governor of the European Central Bank, said on Thursday the possibility of buying Eurozone government debt to ease the crisis had not been discussed at its policy meeting. Analysts said the divergence between the price of government debt for countries at the core of the Eurozone, such as Germany, and those on the periphery undermined the Euro's reserve status. The Euro plunged to a low of $1.2520 against the Dollar, its weakest level since March 2009, on Thursday and an eight-year trough of Y110.62 against the Yen, as a sharp sell-off in US stocks sparked by the Greek debt crisis caused panic in the currency markets, triggering massive haven demand for the US and Japanese currencies. On Friday the Euro recovered some poise, but still finished the week down 5% at $1.2625 against the Dollar and 7.8% at Y114.91 against the Yen. The single currency also dropped to a record low against the Swiss franc after the Swiss National Bank, which has been intervening to stop the appreciation of its currency since March 2009, withdrew from the market and let the franc trade higher. Over the week the Euro lost 1.8% to SFr1.4061 against the Swiss franc. The Euro also dropped to an 11-month low of £0.8467 against the Pound on Thursday. But Sterling fell sharply on Friday after the UK general election failed to produce a clear winner. Analysts said the outcome was the worst possible for Sterling, exacerbating concerns that a new UK government would lack the strength to get to grips with Britain's record fiscal deficit. The Pound plunged to a one-year low against the Dollar, dropping 4% to $1.4655, but still finished the week 1% higher at £0.8608 against the Euro. Elevated risk aversion boosted haven demand for the Dollar and the Yen. The Dollar rose 4.8% to $0.8815 against the Australian Dollar over the week, gained 2.6% to SFr1.1135 against the Swiss Franc and climbed 3.5% to C$1.0527 against the Canadian Dollar. The Yen rose 3% to Y91.05 against the Dollar. In South Africa the Rand was barely changed in afternoon trade on Friday from its midday levels. At 3.50pm the Rand was bid at 7.6952 to the Dollar from 7.7442 at its previous close. It was bid at 9.7614 to the Euro from its previous close of 9.7923 and was at 11.3290 against the Sterling from 11.5210. And bringing currencies to a close as always here in China, the RMB rose slightly against the US Dollar late Friday because of strong demand for the yuan from some exporters, but nondeliverable forwards in the offshore market continued to rise sharply as global foreign-exchange volatility lowered expectations of the yuan appreciating against the Dollar any time soon. On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.8257 at 0930 GMT, down from Thursday's close. It traded between CNY6.8255 and CNY6.8280. The Dollar-yuan central parity was set at 6.8271, up marginally from 6.8269 Thursday. |
| China
Key news eminating from China this week ..... |
 China's producer prices may have climbed the most in 18 months in April on rising costs of imported goods, adding to signs that the country's fixed exchange rate is stoking inflation. The cost of goods as they leave the factory jumped 6.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 29 economists' estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Consumer prices may have climbed 2.7 percent, matching a 16-month high. The statistics bureau releases April data on May 11 in Beijing. Premier Wen Jiabao aims to restrain prices without dragging down the economy that is the biggest contributor to the global expansion. China's stocks have tumbled on concern more aggressive steps to counter price bubbles will throttle growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index yesterday closing at the lowest level in eight months. The 4.1 percent drop in the index yesterday also reflected concern that the Greek fiscal crisis may undermine the recovery from the world's deepest postwar recession. The potential impact of Europe's sovereign debt woes could encourage China to maintain the RMB's peg of 6.83 to the dollar, in place since July 2008 to aid exporters. Non-deliverable RMB forwards fell 0.6 percent as of 5:45 p.m. in Hong Kong yesterday, the biggest decline since October. That indicates investors have pared their expectations to a 2.1 percent gain against the dollar in the next year. April trade figures will show imports rising faster than exports as China's fiscal stimulus and last year's record credit boom continued to aid domestic demand, according to economists' median forecasts. The nation's first monthly trade deficit in six years, reported in March, is likely to have been followed by another gap in April, according to the survey. A 52 percent jump in imports from a year earlier and a 29 percent increase in exports left a $550 million shortfall, the survey showed. The customs bureau is due to release the trade figures on May 10. Shanghai Dragon Corp., an apparel maker and exporter in China's financial hub, is among companies to report that rising costs, including for raw materials and labor, are squeezing profit margins. China's official manufacturing index, released May 1, showed input prices rising by the most in 22 months. To contain price risks in an economy awash with money, the government has set a target of a 22 percent reduction in new lending from last year's record, raised banks' reserve requirements three times this year and intensified a campaign against property speculation. Industrial production climbed 18.5 percent in April from a year earlier, after an 18.1 percent gain in March, according to the economists' median estimate. Urban fixed-asset investment may have gained 26 percent in the first four months from the same period in 2009. Retail sales advanced 18.2 percent in April from a year earlier, another economists' survey indicated. Economists are divided on how much the economy may slow in the aftermath of efforts by officials to cool property speculation. April's new lending was 585 billion RMB ($85.7 billion), according to the economists' median forecast. That would take the total for the first four months of the year to about 3.19 trillion RMB, or 43 percent of the full-year target. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, may have expanded 22 percent from a year earlier. Central bank data on lending and money supply are usually released between the 10th and the 15th of each month. The RMB has remained at about 6.83 per dollar under the peg maintained since mid-2008, a strategy criticized by US lawmakers as giving China an unfair edge in global markets. April's new lending was 585 billion RMB ($85.7 billion), according to the economists' median forecast. That would take the total for the first four months of the year to about 3.19 trillion RMB, or 43 percent of the full-year target. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, may have expanded 22 percent from a year earlier. Central bank data on lending and money supply are usually released between the 10th and the 15th of each month. The RMB has remained at about 6.83 per dollar under the peg maintained since mid-2008, a strategy criticized by US lawmakers as giving China an unfair edge in global markets. **************************************** Posco and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. may lead a rebound in Asian steel stocks because surging demand for automobiles in China and India will help them raise prices faster than raw material costs climb. Steel prices in China, the largest consumer, may jump 35 percent this year, according to UOB Kay Hian Ltd. South Korea's Posco may lift prices in the third quarter, adding to the 25 percent gain in May, said Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Shares of the 16 largest steelmakers in Asia have dropped 13 percent in 2010 on cost concerns. Baoshan and Posco, Asia's second- and third-largest mills, said they're seeing "strong" demand as General Motors Co. and Kia Motors Corp. run Asian factories at full capacity. The rising order books are helping them withstand increases in raw material costs of as much as 90 percent. Benchmark hot-rolled prices may rise more than 20 percent to $800 a metric ton in the second quarter, covering estimated cost increases of $150. Pohang-based Posco raised prices to 850,000 won ($749) a ton. Baoshan, which expects a 6- to 10-fold jump in first-half profit, is charging 6,026 RMB ($882) a ton for cold-rolled steel, used in making cars. Iron ore and coking coal account for 67 percent of the cost of making steel in China. General Motors, the largest automaker in China, "can't build enough cars," Kevin Wale, the company's Chinese president said in April. South Korean car sales rose for a 10th month in April, with Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors leading gains. Rising Asian demand helped Japanese mills including JFE Holdings Inc. and Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. raise output for the year to end March 2011 by as much as 19 percent. Exports accounted for 46 percent of sales at JFE, Japan's second-biggest, in the fiscal fourth quarter, up from 40 percent a year earlier. The economic recovery will spur a 10.7 percent gain in steel consumption this year, the World Steel Association said. That's led to competition for materials, allowing Vale SA, the biggest iron ore exporter, to win a 90 percent price gain for contracts started April 1. BHP Billiton Ltd., the largest mining company, won a 55 percent lift in coal prices. Coal may jump 50 percent in the second half, Citigroup Inc. said April 12. Tata Steel Ltd. and Steel Authority of India Ltd., India's two largest producers, may do better than rivals as they own iron ore mines. Still, with Asian demand reliant on China, moves by the government in the past month to cool the property market may hurt demand for steel used in construction. Prices of reinforcing bars, used in buildings, have dropped 2 percent from a nine-month high on April 14, as China banned loans for third-home purchases, raised mortgage rates and down- payment requirements. Steel Authority cut prices for products used in construction from May because of weaker demand. Investors may prefer steel producers which sell more to makers of cars and appliances. Baoshan Steel and Angang account for about 50 percent and 30 percent of China's automotive sheet market respectively. **************************************** China's central bank said at the start of the week that it will raise the amount banks must hold in reserve for a third time this year, the latest move by Beijing to cool its booming economy. The increase came after regulators ordered China's largest banks to re-examine their loan books and provide estimates of their exposure to un-collateralised loans, especially to provincial governments, according to Chinese bankers and analysts. If banks are unable to find assets to collateralise these loans within a few months they might be required to downgrade the loans, potentially leading to a spike in non-performing assets on their books, analysts said. After reporting record profits in the first quarter, Chinese banks are under pressure to rein in lending and restrict loans to certain sectors and industries as Beijing tries to calm the economy without causing growth to stall. The biggest concerns for regulators are huge loans to shell companies set up by local governments to supplement their fiscal income, as well as loans to real estate developers and speculators that have helped inflate a bubble in the property market. The central government has ordered banks to curb lending, especially to these sectors, after an unprecedented expansion in credit last year that saw new loans nearly double from 2008 to Rmb9,600bn ($1,406bn). As part of its efforts to reduce lending, the People's Bank of China will raise the reserve requirement ratio for deposit-taking financial institutions 0.5 percentage points, with effect from May 10, bringing the rate to 17 per cent for large Chinese banks and 15 per cent for smaller lenders. The ratio for rural credit co-operatives and village banks will not be raised. Although credit growth has slowed, Chinese banks still managed to extend Rmb2,600bn in new loans in the first quarter, helping banks such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Bank of Communications post their best-ever quarterly profits. But analysts expect the profit growth to slow this year as Beijing introduces more measures to cool an economy that grew 11.9 per cent in the first quarter. Consumer price inflation hit 2.4 per cent in March, down slightly from February's 2.7 per cent but still high enough to push real interest rates for Chinese savers into negative territory thanks to low deposit rates. The central bank has not adjusted benchmark interest rates since December 2008, preferring to rely on adjustments to the reserve requirement and direct intervention with banks to curb excessive lending. **************************************** A Chinese shipbuilding group has cancelled a S$666m (US$481m) initial public offering that would have been the largest in Singapore this year. New Century Shipbuilding, based near the Chinese port of Zhangjiagang on the Yangtze River, scaled down the listing from an initial target of up to S$1.5bn just days ago. The decision to abandon the flotation comes amid nervousness in global markets triggered by scepticism about the rescue deal for Greece. Investors are also concerned about the potential impact of recent tightening measures in China to rein in a property market which many analysts fear is close to a bubble. New Century gave no reason for the withdrawal. However, it said in a statement on Tuesday that it "intends to review the situation" and would consider relaunching the listing in the "near future". The IPO would have given New Century a market value of S$5.31bn. UBS and Morgan Stanley were the joint bookrunners. GSW, a German property company, on Wednesday also cancelled its plan to raise €491m from a listing in Frankfurt. Companies which have postponed their IPOs recently include Moscow-based UralChem Holding and Grupo T-Solar Global of Madrid. Others, including Excel Trust in San Diego and Milwaukee-based Douglas Dynamics, have reduced initial sales in the past two weeks, according to Bloomberg. However, other companies have pressed ahead with capital raising plans, including Jiangsu Rongsheng Heavy Industries, another Chinese shipbuilder, which has appointed investment banks including Morgan Stanley to organise a US$1.5bn IPO in Hong Kong, according to people familiar with the matter. The shipbuilding industry, which is dominated by yards in South Korea, China and Japan, has been in turmoil since 2008 due to overcapacity and a collapse in orders. As a result, many shipbuilders have had to scale down their ambitions to raise funds in the capital markets. New Century's decision to pull its IPO will be a disappointment to the Singapore Exchange, which said last week that it had a "strong pipeline" of Chinese offerings in prospect once the Chinese shipbuilder's capital raising had taken place. |
| Summary
The coming week looks like ..... | 
Given what we have seen the past few days, I'm probably stating the obvious by saying that you can expect market volatility to stick around at least another month as we head into summer. Investors can say goodbye to the calm they have recently began to enjoy. That's the message from the market's fear gauge, formally known as the Chicago Board of Options Exchange's Volatility Index. The VIX surged again Friday, to post a two-day cumulative spike of 64%. The index tends to rise when stocks fall. In an uncertain market investors are willing to pay hefty premiums for options that offer protection from price swings of stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Options are contracts to buy or sell a stock at a specified price and time. The VIX reflects what investors expect the market to do over the next 30 days. On Friday, the VIX closed up nearly 25% at 40.95 points. It traded as high as 42.15 in the morning - its highest reading since April 7, 2009 - as stocks fell sharply. The rise in the VIX came as investors appeared to focus on the European debt crisis, rather than the morning's better-than-expected report on the US jobs market. The VIX calmed later as stocks recovered most of their morning losses, but spiked again just before the close. Friday's choppiness was still pretty tame compared with Thursday, when the VIX surged 63% in the afternoon before finishing the day up 32%, at 32.8. It came as the Dow Jones industrial average plunged nearly 1,000 points, before rebounding to finish down 348 points. The turmoil comes after relative calm had settled in markets. As recently as last week, the VIX had been trading around its historic average of 19 points. VIX's historic peak came in October 2008, at 89.5, in the wake of Lehman Brothers' collapse. As for VIX's next moves, they could prove harder to predict than the direction of stocks. The index's movements late this week have been far sharper than those of stocks. For example, VIX's decline on Thursday was 10 times greater in percentage terms than the Dow's drop by the market close. Coming at a time when markets are nervous anyway, next week globally we see a slew of economic data that is going to be added to the mix. Whether this data will hold as much bearing as it would have a week ago, remains to be seen. But let's start in the US where next week's economic releases include the Tuesday March wholesale inventories and sales. Inventories are expected to rise by 0.5% compared to 0.6% last month and wholesale sales are expected at 0.7% compared to 0.8% last month. On Wednesday the March trade balance will be released along with the April treasury budget. The trade balance is expected to widen to -40bln from -39.7bln last month. On Thursday April import prices and jobless claims for week ending 05/08 will be released. Import prices are expected to rise by 0.8% compared to 0.7%last month. Jobless claims are expected to fall to 438k from 444k last week. Then ending the coming week in the US, on Friday April retail sales industrial production, capacity utilization and University of Michigan sentiment will be released along with March business inventories. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.3% compared 1.6% last month. Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.5% compared to 0.1% last month. Capacity utilization is expected at 73.6 compared to 73.2 last month. Michigan consumer sentiment is expected at 73.2 compared to 72.2 last month. Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% compared to 0.5% last month. For major companies in the US, Cisco and Walt Disney will report their quarterly results. The House Financial Services subcommittee on capital markets plans to hold a hearing Tuesday to investigate the causes for the US stock market's dramatic and brief plunge Thursday. Republican Paul Kanjorski, the subcommittee's chairman, also sent a letter to Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro, urging her to thoroughly examine the causes of the market volatility and what market reforms are needed to protect investors (you'd have hoped she was onto that anyway, but .....). Next week's EU economic includes the Monday release of EU May Sentix index expected at 2.7 compared to 2.5 last month. On Tuesday April German final CPI will be released expected unchanged at 0.5%. On Wednesday EU Q1 GDP and industrial production for March will be released. GDP is expected to rise by 0.4% and industrial production is expected at 1.1% to 0.9% last month. And finally on Thursday in Europe German Q1 GDP will be released expected at 0.3%. In the UK next week's UK economic includes the Tuesday release of April BRC retail sales expected at 4.7% compared to 4.4% last month. UK March industrial production will also be released on Tuesday expected at 1.2% compared to 1.1% last month. On Wednesday March unemployment, average earnings claimant count will be released and on Thursday March trade will be released expected to widen to -7.2bln from -6.2bln in March. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee makes its routine monetary policy announcement Monday after a two-day meeting that began Friday, May 7. The Bank shifted the usual Wednesday-Thursday meeting to accommodate the timing of the General Election.
Here in Asia, next week's Japanese economic calendar includes the release tomorrow of BOJ policy minutes for the April meeting. On Wednesday March leading indicators will be released expected at 1% compared to 1.2% last month. On Thursday March current account will be released expected at ¥2.15trln compared with ¥1.47trln last month. April money supply and bank lending will also be released on Thursday. Money supply is expected to rise by 0.1% compared to 0.2% last month and bank lending is expected to rise by 0.4% compared to 0.2% last month. Next week's Australian economic calendar includes the Monday release of April ANZ job ads expected at 2% compared to 1.8% last month. Also on Monday March housing finance will be released expected at -1% compared to-1.8% last month. On Thursday April employment growth and unemployment rate would be released. Employment growth is expected at 25k compared to 19.6 K. last month. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.2% from 5.3% last month. Overall, it's my view that stock markets will eventually plunge through the March 2009 lows because the financial crisis that reared its head in 2008 and recently again with the Greek debt crisis is clearly not over. As I have said all along, the financial crisis got papered over, but did not disappear. As you look six months forward, I think markets will sell off quite a bit, and in fact I would even say we will probably test the old lows of March, 2009. That may not be anytime soon of course, it could be in a year. But that is how grim the overall global financial picture looks currently. We just essentially took everything bad off of the books of private enterprise or the banking system and gave it to governments. And of course the governments are now being questioned because they have all these liabilities and own all this toxic waste so now people now won't buy their bonds. The markets all of a sudden have come to appreciate that we have a problem out there! I have said over the past year Ladies & Gentlemen, the rise back out of recession was in my humble opinion way too much and way too quickly. As I mentioned in a Newsletter in March, it is almost as if markets have completely forgotten the 18 months of turmoil and seem determined to revisit the highs of October 2007 irrespective of what the fundamentals and logic say. For sure, next week (and the coming weeks ahead) are certainly going to be a rollercoaster for markets around the world with Europe and particular scrutiny of other European countries - not just the PIGS countries - coming to the fore. |
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Newsletter Written By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International | |
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