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The
US Financial Sector
It's
over - we're officially, royally fucked.
No
empire can survive being rendered a permanent laughing stock,
which is what happened as of a few weeks ago, when the buffoons
who have been running things in this country finally went one
step too far.
It
happened when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was forced
to admit that he was once again going to have to stuff billions
of taxpayer dollars into a dying insurance giant called AIG,
itself a profound symbol of our national decline - a corporation
that got rich insuring the concrete and steel of American industry
in the country's heyday, only to destroy itself chasing phantom
fortunes at the Wall Street card tables, like a dissolute nobleman
gambling away the family estate in the waning days of the British
Empire.
The latest bailout came as AIG admitted to having just posted
the largest quarterly loss in American corporate history - some
$61.7 billion. In the final three months of last year, the company
lost more than $27 million every hour. That's $465,000 a minute,
a yearly income for a median American household every six seconds,
roughly $7,750 a second. And all this happened at the end of
eight straight years that America devoted to frantically chasing
the shadow of a terrorist threat to no avail, eight years spent
stopping every citizen at every airport to search every purse,
bag, crotch and briefcase for juice boxes and explosive tubes
of toothpaste. Yet in the end, our government had no mechanism
for searching the balance sheets of companies that held life-or-death
power over our society and was unable to spot holes in the national
economy the size of Libya (whose entire GDP last year was smaller
than AIG's 2008 losses).
So it's time to admit it: We're fools, protagonists in a kind
of gruesome comedy about the marriage of greed and stupidity.
And the worst part about it is that we're still in denial -
we still think this is some kind of unfortunate accident, not
something that was created by the group of psychopaths on Wall
Street whom we allowed to gang-rape the American Dream. When
Geithner announced the new $30 billion bailout, the party line
was that poor AIG was just a victim of a lot of shitty luck
— bad year for business, you know, what with the financial crisis
and all. Edward Liddy, the company's CEO, actually compared
it to catching a cold: "The marketplace is a pretty crummy
place to be right now," he said. "When the world catches
pneumonia, we get it too." In a pathetic attempt at name-dropping,
he even whined that AIG was being "consumed by the same
issues that are driving house prices down and 401K statements
down and Warren Buffet's investment portfolio down."
Liddy made AIG sound like an orphan begging in a soup line,
hungry and sick from being left out in someone else's financial
weather. He conveniently forgot to mention that AIG had spent
more than a decade systematically scheming to evade U.S. and
international regulators, or that one of the causes of its "pneumonia"
was making colossal, world-sinking $500 billion bets with money
it didn't have, in a toxic and completely unregulated derivatives
market.
Nor did anyone mention that when AIG finally got up from its
seat at the Wall Street casino, broke and busted in the afterdawn
light, it owed money all over town - and that a huge chunk of
your taxpayer dollars in this particular bailout scam will be
going to pay off the other high rollers at its table. Or that
this was a casino unique among all casinos, one where middle-class
taxpayers cover the bets of billionaires.
People
are pissed off about this financial crisis, and about this bailout,
but they're not pissed off enough. The reality is that the worldwide
economic meltdown and the bailout that followed were together
a kind of revolution, a coup d'état. They cemented and formalized
a political trend that has been snowballing for decades: the
gradual takeover of the government by a small class of connected
insiders, who used money to control elections, buy influence
and systematically weaken financial regulations.
The crisis was the coup de grâce: Given virtually free rein
over the economy, these same insiders first wrecked the financial
world, then cunningly granted themselves nearly unlimited emergency
powers to clean up their own mess. And so the gambling-addict
leaders of companies like AIG end up not penniless and in jail,
but with an Alien-style death grip on the Treasury and the Federal
Reserve - "our partners in the government," as Liddy
put it with a shockingly casual matter-of-factness after the
most recent bailout.
The mistake most people make in looking at the financial crisis
is thinking of it in terms of money, a habit that might lead
you to look at the unfolding mess as a huge bonus-killing downer
for the Wall Street class. But if you look at it in purely Machiavellian
terms, what you see is a colossal power grab that threatens
to turn the federal government into a kind of giant Enron -
a huge, impenetrable black box filled with self-dealing insiders
whose scheme is the securing of individual profits at the expense
of an ocean of unwitting involuntary shareholders, previously
known as taxpayers.
I. PATIENT ZERO
The best way to understand the financial crisis is to understand
the meltdown at AIG. AIG is what happens when short, bald managers
of otherwise boring financial bureaucracies start seeing Brad
Pitt in the mirror. This is a company that built a giant fortune
across more than a century by betting on safety-conscious policyholders
— people who wear seat belts and build houses on high ground
- and then blew it all in a year or two by turning their entire
balance sheet over to a guy who acted like making huge bets
with other people's money would make his dick bigger.
That guy - the Patient Zero of the global economic meltdown
- was one Joseph Cassano, the head of a tiny, 400-person unit
within the company called AIG Financial Products, or AIGFP.
Cassano, a pudgy, balding Brooklyn College grad with beady eyes
and way too much forehead, cut his teeth in the Eighties working
for Mike Milken, the granddaddy of modern Wall Street debt alchemists.
Milken, who pioneered the creative use of junk bonds, relied
on messianic genius and a whole array of insider schemes to
evade detection while wreaking financial disaster. Cassano,
by contrast, was just a greedy little turd with a knack for
selective accounting who ran his scam right out in the open,
thanks to Washington's deregulation of the Wall Street casino.
"It's all about the regulatory environment," says
a government source involved with the AIG bailout. "These
guys look for holes in the system, for ways they can do trades
without government interference. Whatever is unregulated, all
the action is going to pile into that."
The mess Cassano created had its roots in an investment boom
fueled in part by a relatively new type of financial instrument
called a collateralized-debt obligation. A CDO is like a box
full of diced-up assets. They can be anything: mortgages, corporate
loans, aircraft loans, credit-card loans, even other CDOs. So
as X mortgage holder pays his bill, and Y corporate debtor pays
his bill, and Z credit-card debtor pays his bill, money flows
into the box.
The key idea behind a CDO is that there will always be at least
some money in the box, regardless of how dicey the individual
assets inside it are. No matter how you look at a single unemployed
ex-con trying to pay the note on a six-bedroom house, he looks
like a bad investment. But dump his loan in a box with a smorgasbord
of auto loans, credit-card debt, corporate bonds and other crap,
and you can be reasonably sure that somebody is going to pay
up. Say $100 is supposed to come into the box every month. Even
in an apocalypse, when $90 in payments might default, you'll
still get $10. What the inventors of the CDO did is divide up
the box into groups of investors and put that $10 into its own
level, or "tranche." They then convinced ratings agencies
like Moody's and S&P to give that top tranche the highest
AAA rating - meaning it has close to zero credit risk.
Suddenly, thanks to this financial seal of approval, banks had
a way to turn their shittiest mortgages and other financial
waste into investment-grade paper and sell them to institutional
investors like pensions and insurance companies, which were
forced by regulators to keep their portfolios as safe as possible.
Because CDOs offered higher rates of return than truly safe
products like Treasury bills, it was a win-win: Banks made a
fortune selling CDOs, and big investors made much more holding
them.
The problem was, none of this was based on reality. "The
banks knew they were selling crap," says a London-based
trader from one of the bailed-out companies. To get AAA ratings,
the CDOs relied not on their actual underlying assets but on
crazy mathematical formulas that the banks cooked up to make
the investments look safer than they really were. "They
had some back room somewhere where a bunch of Indian guys who'd
been doing nothing but math for God knows how many years would
come up with some kind of model saying that this or that combination
of debtors would only default once every 10,000 years,"
says one young trader who sold CDOs for a major investment bank.
"It was nuts."
Now that even the crappiest mortgages could be sold to conservative
investors, the CDOs spurred a massive explosion of irresponsible
and predatory lending. In fact, there was such a crush to underwrite
CDOs that it became hard to find enough subprime mortgages -
read: enough unemployed meth dealers willing to buy million-dollar
homes for no money down - to fill them all. As banks and investors
of all kinds took on more and more in CDOs and similar instruments,
they needed some way to hedge their massive bets — some kind
of insurance policy, in case the housing bubble burst and all
that debt went south at the same time. This was particularly
true for investment banks, many of which got stuck holding or
"warehousing" CDOs when they wrote more than they
could sell. And that's were Joe Cassano came in.
Known for his boldness and arrogance, Cassano took over as chief
of AIGFP in 2001. He was the favorite of Maurice "Hank"
Greenberg, the head of AIG, who admired the younger man's hard-driving
ways, even if neither he nor his successors fully understood
exactly what it was that Cassano did. According to a source
familiar with AIG's internal operations, Cassano basically told
senior management, "You know insurance, I know investments,
so you do what you do, and I'll do what I do - leave me alone."
Given a free hand within the company, Cassano set out from his
offices in London to sell a lucrative form of "insurance"
to all those investors holding lots of CDOs. His tool of choice
was another new financial instrument known as a credit-default
swap, or CDS.
The CDS was popularized by J.P. Morgan, in particular by a group
of young, creative bankers who would later become known as the
"Morgan Mafia," as many of them would go on to assume
influential positions in the finance world. In 1994, in between
booze and games of tennis at a resort in Boca Raton, Florida,
the Morgan gang plotted a way to help boost the bank's returns.
One of their goals was to find a way to lend more money, while
working around regulations that required them to keep a set
amount of cash in reserve to back those loans. What they came
up with was an early version of the credit-default swap.
In its simplest form, a CDS is just a bet on an outcome. Say
Bank A writes a million-dollar mortgage to the Pope for a town
house in the West Village. Bank A wants to hedge its mortgage
risk in case the Pope can't make his monthly payments, so it
buys CDS protection from Bank B, wherein it agrees to pay Bank
B a premium of $1,000 a month for five years. In return, Bank
B agrees to pay Bank A the full million-dollar value of the
Pope's mortgage if he defaults. In theory, Bank A is covered
if the Pope goes on a meth binge and loses his job.
When Morgan presented their plans for credit swaps to regulators
in the late Nineties, they argued that if they bought CDS protection
for enough of the investments in their portfolio, they had effectively
moved the risk off their books. Therefore, they argued, they
should be allowed to lend more, without keeping more cash in
reserve. A whole host of regulators - from the Federal Reserve
to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency - accepted
the argument, and Morgan was allowed to put more money on the
street.
What Cassano did was to transform the credit swaps that Morgan
popularized into the world's largest bet on the housing boom.
In theory, at least, there's nothing wrong with buying a CDS
to insure your investments. Investors paid a premium to AIGFP,
and in return the company promised to pick up the tab if the
mortgage-backed CDOs went bust. But as Cassano went on a selling
spree, the deals he made differed from traditional insurance
in several significant ways. First, the party selling CDS protection
didn't have to post any money upfront. When a $100 corporate
bond is sold, for example, someone has to show 100 actual dollars.
But when you sell a $100 CDS guarantee, you don't have to show
a dime. So Cassano could sell investment banks billions in guarantees
without having any single asset to back it up.
Secondly, Cassano was selling so-called "naked" CDS
deals. In a "naked" CDS, neither party actually holds
the underlying loan. In other words, Bank B not only sells CDS
protection to Bank A for its mortgage on the Pope - it turns
around and sells protection to Bank C for the very same mortgage.
This could go on ad nauseam: You could have Banks D through
Z also betting on Bank A's mortgage. Unlike traditional insurance,
Cassano was offering investors an opportunity to bet that someone
else's house would burn down, or take out a term life policy
on the guy with AIDS down the street. It was no different from
gambling, the Wall Street version of a bunch of frat brothers
betting on Jay Feely to make a field goal. Cassano was taking
book for every bank that bet short on the housing market, but
he didn't have the cash to pay off if the kick went wide.
In a span of only seven years, Cassano sold some $500 billion
worth of CDS protection, with at least $64 billion of that tied
to the subprime mortgage market. AIG didn't have even a fraction
of that amount of cash on hand to cover its bets, but neither
did it expect it would ever need any reserves. So long as defaults
on the underlying securities remained a highly unlikely proposition,
AIG was essentially collecting huge and steadily climbing premiums
by selling insurance for the disaster it thought would never
come.
Initially, at least, the revenues were enormous: AIGFP's returns
went from $737 million in 1999 to $3.2 billion in 2005. Over
the past seven years, the subsidiary's 400 employees were paid
a total of $3.5 billion; Cassano himself pocketed at least $280
million in compensation. Everyone made their money - and then
it all went to shit.
II. THE REGULATORS
Cassano's outrageous gamble wouldn't have been possible had
he not had the good fortune to take over AIGFP just as Sen.
Phil Gramm - a grinning, laissez-faire ideologue from Texas
- had finished engineering the most dramatic deregulation of
the financial industry since Emperor Hien Tsung invented paper
money in 806 A.D. For years, Washington had kept a watchful
eye on the nation's banks. Ever since the Great Depression,
commercial banks - those that kept money on deposit for individuals
and businesses - had not been allowed to double as investment
banks, which raise money by issuing and selling securities.
The Glass-Steagall Act, passed during the Depression, also prevented
banks of any kind from getting into the insurance business.
But in the late Nineties, a few years before Cassano took over
AIGFP, all that changed. The Democrats, tired of getting slaughtered
in the fundraising arena by Republicans, decided to throw off
their old reliance on unions and interest groups and become
more "business-friendly." Wall Street responded by
flooding Washington with money, buying allies in both parties.
In the 10-year period beginning in 1998, financial companies
spent $1.7 billion on federal campaign contributions and another
$3.4 billion on lobbyists. They quickly got what they paid for.
In 1999, Gramm co-sponsored a bill that repealed key aspects
of the Glass-Steagall Act, smoothing the way for the creation
of financial megafirms like Citigroup. The move did away with
the built-in protections afforded by smaller banks. In the old
days, a local banker knew the people whose loans were on his
balance sheet: He wasn't going to give a million-dollar mortgage
to a homeless meth addict, since he would have to keep that
loan on his books. But a giant merged bank might write that
loan and then sell it off to some fool in China, and who cared?
The very next year, Gramm compounded the problem by writing
a sweeping new law called the Commodity Futures Modernization
Act that made it impossible to regulate credit swaps as either
gambling or securities. Commercial banks - which, thanks to
Gramm, were now competing directly with investment banks for
customers - were driven to buy credit swaps to loosen capital
in search of higher yields. "By ruling that credit-default
swaps were not gaming and not a security, the way was cleared
for the growth of the market," said Eric Dinallo, head
of the New York State Insurance Department.
The blanket exemption meant that Joe Cassano could now sell
as many CDS contracts as he wanted, building up as huge a position
as he wanted, without anyone in government saying a word. "You
have to remember, investment banks aren't in the business of
making huge directional bets," says the government source
involved in the AIG bailout. When investment banks write CDS
deals, they hedge them. But insurance companies don't have to
hedge. And that's what AIG did. "They just bet massively
long on the housing market," says the source. "Billions
and billions."
In the biggest joke of all, Cassano's wheeling and dealing was
regulated by the Office of Thrift Supervision, an agency that
would prove to be defiantly uninterested in keeping watch over
his operations. How a behemoth like AIG came to be regulated
by the little-known and relatively small OTS is yet another
triumph of the deregulatory instinct. Under another law passed
in 1999, certain kinds of holding companies could choose the
OTS as their regulator, provided they owned one or more thrifts
(better known as savings-and-loans). Because the OTS was viewed
as more compliant than the Fed or the Securities and Exchange
Commission, companies rushed to reclassify themselves as thrifts.
In 1999, AIG purchased a thrift in Delaware and managed to get
approval for OTS regulation of its entire operation.
Making matters even more hilarious, AIGFP - a London-based subsidiary
of an American insurance company - ought to have been regulated
by one of Europe's more stringent regulators, like Britain's
Financial Services Authority. But the OTS managed to convince
the Europeans that it had the muscle to regulate these giant
companies. By 2007, the EU had conferred legitimacy to OTS supervision
of three mammoth firms - GE, AIG and Ameriprise.
That same year, as the subprime crisis was exploding, the Government
Accountability Office criticized the OTS, noting a "disparity
between the size of the agency and the diverse firms it oversees."
Among other things, the GAO report noted that the entire OTS
had only one insurance specialist on staff - and this despite
the fact that it was the primary regulator for the world's largest
insurer!
"There's this notion that the regulators couldn't do anything
to stop AIG," says a government official who was present
during the bailout. "That's bullshit. What you have to
understand is that these regulators have ultimate power. They
can send you a letter and say, 'You don't exist anymore,' and
that's basically that. They don't even really need due process.
The OTS could have said, 'We're going to pull your charter;
we're going to pull your license; we're going to sue you.' And
getting sued by your primary regulator is the kiss of death."
When AIG finally blew up, the OTS regulator ostensibly in charge
of overseeing the insurance giant - a guy named C.K. Lee - basically
admitted that he had blown it. His mistake, Lee said, was that
he believed all those credit swaps in Cassano's portfolio were
"fairly benign products." Why? Because the company
told him so. "The judgment the company was making was that
there was no big credit risk," he explained. (Lee now works
as Midwest region director of the OTS; the agency declined to
make him available for an interview.)
In early March, after the latest bailout of AIG, Treasury Secretary
Timothy Geithner took what seemed to be a thinly veiled shot
at the OTS, calling AIG a "huge, complex global insurance
company attached to a very complicated investment bank/hedge
fund that was allowed to build up without any adult supervision."
But even without that "adult supervision," AIG might
have been OK had it not been for a complete lack of internal
controls. For six months before its meltdown, according to insiders,
the company had been searching for a full-time chief financial
officer and a chief risk-assessment officer, but never got around
to hiring either. That meant that the 18th-largest company in
the world had no one checking to make sure its balance sheet
was safe and no one keeping track of how much cash and assets
the firm had on hand. The situation was so bad that when outside
consultants were called in a few weeks before the bailout, senior
executives were unable to answer even the most basic questions
about their company - like, for instance, how much exposure
the firm had to the residential-mortgage market.
III. THE CRASH
Ironically, when reality finally caught up to Cassano, it wasn't
because the housing market crapped but because of AIG itself.
Before 2005, the company's debt was rated triple-A, meaning
he didn't need to post much cash to sell CDS protection: The
solid creditworthiness of AIG's name was guarantee enough. But
the company's crummy accounting practices eventually caused
its credit rating to be downgraded, triggering clauses in the
CDS contracts that forced Cassano to post substantially more
collateral to back his deals.
By the fall of 2007, it was evident that AIGFP's portfolio had
turned poisonous, but like every good Wall Street huckster,
Cassano schemed to keep his insane, Earth-swallowing gamble
hidden from public view. That August, balls bulging, he announced
to investors on a conference call that "it is hard for
us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any
kind of realm of reason that would see us losing $1 in any of
those transactions." As he spoke, his CDS portfolio was
racking up $352 million in losses. When the growing credit crunch
prompted senior AIG executives to re-examine its liabilities,
a company accountant named Joseph St. Denis became "gravely
concerned" about the CDS deals and their potential for
mass destruction. Cassano responded by personally forcing the
poor sap out of the firm, telling him he was "deliberately
excluded" from the financial review for fear that he might
"pollute the process."
The following February, when AIG posted $11.5 billion in annual
losses, it announced the resignation of Cassano as head of AIGFP,
saying an auditor had found a "material weakness"
in the CDS portfolio. But amazingly, the company not only allowed
Cassano to keep $34 million in bonuses, it kept him on as a
consultant for $1 million a month. In fact, Cassano remained
on the payroll and kept collecting his monthly million through
the end of September 2008, even after taxpayers had been forced
to hand AIG $85 billion to patch up his fuck-ups. When asked
in October why the company still retained Cassano at his $1
million-a-month rate despite his role in the probable downfall
of Western civilization, CEO Martin Sullivan told Congress with
a straight face that AIG wanted to "retain the 20-year
knowledge that Mr. Cassano had." (Cassano, who is apparently
hiding out in his lavish town house near Harrods in London,
could not be reached for comment.).
What sank AIG in the end was another credit downgrade. Cassano
had written so many CDS deals that when the company was facing
another downgrade to its credit rating last September, from
AA to A, it needed to post billions in collateral — not only
more cash than it had on its balance sheet but more cash than
it could raise even if it sold off every single one of its liquid
assets. Even so, management dithered for days, not believing
the company was in serious trouble. AIG was a dried-up prune,
sapped of any real value, and its top executives didn't even
know it.
On the weekend of September 13th, AIG's senior leaders were
summoned to the offices of the New York Federal Reserve. Regulators
from Dinallo's insurance office were there, as was Geithner,
then chief of the New York Fed. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson,
who spent most of the weekend preoccupied with the collapse
of Lehman Brothers, came in and out. Also present, for reasons
that would emerge later, was Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman
Sachs. The only relevant government office that wasn't represented
was the regulator that should have been there all along: the
OTS.
"We sat down with Paulson, Geithner and Dinallo,"
says a person present at the negotiations. "I didn't see
the OTS even once."
On September 14th, according to another person present, Treasury
officials presented Blankfein and other bankers in attendance
with an absurd proposal: "They basically asked them to
spend a day and check to see if they could raise the money privately."
The laughably short time span to complete the mammoth task made
the answer a foregone conclusion. At the end of the day, the
bankers came back and told the government officials, gee, we
checked, but we can't raise that much. And the bailout was on.
A short time later, it came out that AIG was planning to pay
some $90 million in deferred compensation to former executives,
and to accelerate the payout of $277 million in bonuses to others
- a move the company insisted was necessary to "retain
key employees." When Congress balked, AIG canceled the
$90 million in payments.
Then, in January 2009, the company did it again. After all those
years letting Cassano run wild, and after already getting caught
paying out insane bonuses while on the public till, AIG decided
to pay out another $450 million in bonuses. And to whom? To
the 400 or so employees in Cassano's old unit, AIGFP, which
is due to go out of business shortly! Yes, that's right, an
average of $1.1 million in taxpayer-backed money apiece, to
the very people who spent the past decade or so punching a hole
in the fabric of the universe!
"We, uh, needed to keep these highly expert people in their
seats," AIG spokeswoman Christina Pretto says to me in
early February.
"But didn't these 'highly expert people' basically destroy
your company?" I ask.
Pretto protests, says this isn't fair. The employees at AIGFP
have already taken pay cuts, she says. Not retaining them would
dilute the value of the company even further, make it harder
to wrap up the unit's operations in an orderly fashion.
The bonuses are a nice comic touch highlighting one of the more
outrageous tangents of the bailout age, namely the fact that,
even with the planet in flames, some members of the Wall Street
class can't even get used to the tragedy of having to fly coach.
"These people need their trips to Baja, their spa treatments,
their hand jobs," says an official involved in the AIG
bailout, a serious look on his face, apparently not even half-kidding.
"They don't function well without them."
IV. THE POWER GRAB
So that's the first step in wall street's power grab: making
up things like credit-default swaps and collateralized-debt
obligations, financial products so complex and inscrutable that
ordinary American dumb people - to say nothing of federal regulators
and even the CEOs of major corporations like AIG - are too intimidated
to even try to understand them. That, combined with wise political
investments, enabled the nation's top bankers to effectively
scrap any meaningful oversight of the financial industry. In
1997 and 1998, the years leading up to the passage of Phil Gramm's
fateful act that gutted Glass-Steagall, the banking, brokerage
and insurance industries spent $350 million on political contributions
and lobbying. Gramm alone - then the chairman of the Senate
Banking Committee - collected $2.6 million in only five years.
The law passed 90-8 in the Senate, with the support of 38 Democrats,
including some names that might surprise you: Joe Biden, John
Kerry, Tom Daschle, Dick Durbin, even John Edwards.
The act helped create the too-big-to-fail financial behemoths
like Citigroup, AIG and Bank of America — and in turn helped
those companies slowly crush their smaller competitors, leaving
the major Wall Street firms with even more money and power to
lobby for further deregulatory measures. "We're moving
to an oligopolistic situation," Kenneth Guenther, a top
executive with the Independent Community Bankers of America,
lamented after the Gramm measure was passed.
The situation worsened in 2004, in an extraordinary move toward
deregulation that never even got to a vote. At the time, the
European Union was threatening to more strictly regulate the
foreign operations of America's big investment banks if the
U.S. didn't strengthen its own oversight. So the top five investment
banks got together on April 28th of that year and - with the
helpful assistance of then-Goldman Sachs chief and future Treasury
Secretary Hank Paulson - made a pitch to George Bush's SEC chief
at the time, William Donaldson, himself a former investment
banker. The banks generously volunteered to submit to new rules
restricting them from engaging in excessively risky activity.
In exchange, they asked to be released from any lending restrictions.
The discussion about the new rules lasted just 55 minutes, and
there was not a single representative of a major media outlet
there to record the fateful decision.
Donaldson OK'd the proposal, and the new rules were enough to
get the EU to drop its threat to regulate the five firms. The
only catch was, neither Donaldson nor his successor, Christopher
Cox, actually did any regulating of the banks. They named a
commission of seven people to oversee the five companies, whose
combined assets came to total more than $4 trillion. But in
the last year and a half of Cox's tenure, the group had no director
and did not complete a single inspection. Great deal for the
banks, which originally complained about being regulated by
both Europe and the SEC, and ended up being regulated by no
one.
Once the capital requirements were gone, those top five banks
went hog-wild, jumping ass-first into the then-raging housing
bubble. One of those was Bear Stearns, which used its freedom
to drown itself in bad mortgage loans. In the short period between
the 2004 change and Bear's collapse, the firm's debt-to-equity
ratio soared from 12-1 to an insane 33-1. Another culprit was
Goldman Sachs, which also had the good fortune, around then,
to see its CEO, a bald-headed Frankensteinian goon named Hank
Paulson (who received an estimated $200 million tax deferral
by joining the government), ascend to Treasury secretary.
Freed from all capital restraints, sitting pretty with its man
running the Treasury, Goldman jumped into the housing craze
just like everyone else on Wall Street. Although it famously
scored an $11 billion coup in 2007 when one of its trading units
smartly shorted the housing market, the move didn't tell the
whole story. In truth, Goldman still had a huge exposure come
that fateful summer of 2008 - to none other than Joe Cassano.
Goldman Sachs, it turns out, was Cassano's biggest customer,
with $20 billion of exposure in Cassano's CDS book. Which might
explain why Goldman chief Lloyd Blankfein was in the room with
ex-Goldmanite Hank Paulson that weekend of September 13th, when
the federal government was supposedly bailing out AIG.
When asked why Blankfein was there, one of the government officials
who was in the meeting shrugs. "One might say that it's
because Goldman had so much exposure to AIGFP's portfolio,"
he says. "You'll never prove that, but one might suppose."
Market analyst Eric Salzman is more blunt. "If AIG went
down," he says, "there was a good chance Goldman would
not be able to collect." The AIG bailout, in effect, was
Goldman bailing out Goldman.
Eventually, Paulson went a step further, elevating another ex-Goldmanite
named Edward Liddy to run AIG - a company whose bailout money
would be coming, in part, from the newly created TARP program,
administered by another Goldman banker named Neel Kashkari.
V. REPO MEN
There are plenty of people who have noticed, in recent years,
that when they lost their homes to foreclosure or were forced
into bankruptcy because of crippling credit-card debt, no one
in the government was there to rescue them. But when Goldman
Sachs - a company whose average employee still made more than
$350,000 last year, even in the midst of a depression - was
suddenly faced with the possibility of losing money on the unregulated
insurance deals it bought for its insane housing bets, the government
was there in an instant to patch the hole. That's the essence
of the bailout: rich bankers bailing out rich bankers, using
the taxpayers' credit card.
The people who have spent their lives cloistered in this Wall
Street community aren't much for sharing information with the
great unwashed. Because all of this shit is complicated, because
most of us mortals don't know what the hell LIBOR is or how
a REIT works or how to use the word "zero coupon bond"
in a sentence without sounding stupid — well, then, the people
who do speak this idiotic language cannot under any circumstances
be bothered to explain it to us and instead spend a lot of time
rolling their eyes and asking us to trust them.
That roll of the eyes is a key part of the psychology of Paulsonism.
The state is now being asked not just to call off its regulators
or give tax breaks or funnel a few contracts to connected companies;
it is intervening directly in the economy, for the sole purpose
of preserving the influence of the megafirms. In essence, Paulson
used the bailout to transform the government into a giant bureaucracy
of entitled assholedom, one that would socialize "toxic"
risks but keep both the profits and the management of the bailed-out
firms in private hands. Moreover, this whole process would be
done in secret, away from the prying eyes of NASCAR dads, broke-ass
liberals who read translations of French novels, subprime mortgage
holders and other such financial losers.
Some aspects of the bailout were secretive to the point of absurdity.
In fact, if you look closely at just a few lines in the Federal
Reserve's weekly public disclosures, you can literally see the
moment where a big chunk of your money disappeared for good.
The H4 report (called "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances")
summarizes the activities of the Fed each week. You can find
it online, and it's pretty much the only thing the Fed ever
tells the world about what it does. For the week ending February
18th, the number under the heading "Repurchase Agreements"
on the table is zero. It's a significant number.
Why? In the pre-crisis days, the Fed used to manage the money
supply by periodically buying and selling securities on the
open market through so-called Repurchase Agreements, or Repos.
The Fed would typically dump $25 billion or so in cash onto
the market every week, buying up Treasury bills, U.S. securities
and even mortgage-backed securities from institutions like Goldman
Sachs and J.P. Morgan, who would then "repurchase"
them in a short period of time, usually one to seven days. This
was the Fed's primary mechanism for controlling interest rates:
Buying up securities gives banks more money to lend, which makes
interest rates go down. Selling the securities back to the banks
reduces the money available for lending, which makes interest
rates go up.
If you look at the weekly H4 reports going back to the summer
of 2007, you start to notice something alarming. At the start
of the credit crunch, around August of that year, you see the
Fed buying a few more Repos than usual - $33 billion or so.
By November, as private-bank reserves were dwindling to alarmingly
low levels, the Fed started injecting even more cash than usual
into the economy: $48 billion. By late December, the number
was up to $58 billion; by the following March, around the time
of the Bear Stearns rescue, the Repo number had jumped to $77
billion. In the week of May 1st, 2008, the number was $115 billion
- "out of control now," according to one congressional
aide. For the rest of 2008, the numbers remained similarly in
the stratosphere, the Fed pumping as much as $125 billion of
these short-term loans into the economy - until suddenly, at
the start of this year, the number drops to nothing. Zero.
The reason the number has dropped to nothing is that the Fed
had simply stopped using relatively transparent devices like
repurchase agreements to pump its money into the hands of private
companies. By early 2009, a whole series of new government operations
had been invented to inject cash into the economy, most all
of them completely secretive and with names you've never heard
of. There is the Term Auction Facility, the Term Securities
Lending Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Commercial
Paper Funding Facility and a monster called the Asset-Backed
Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility
(boasting the chat-room horror-show acronym ABCPMMMFLF). For
good measure, there's also something called a Money Market Investor
Funding Facility, plus three facilities called Maiden Lane I,
II and III to aid bailout recipients like Bear Stearns and AIG.
While the rest of America, and most of Congress, have been bugging
out about the $700 billion bailout program called TARP, all
of these newly created organisms in the Federal Reserve zoo
have quietly been pumping not billions but trillions of dollars
into the hands of private companies (at least $3 trillion so
far in loans, with as much as $5.7 trillion more in guarantees
of private investments). Although this technically isn't taxpayer
money, it still affects taxpayers directly, because the activities
of the Fed impact the economy as a whole. And this new, secretive
activity by the Fed completely eclipses the TARP program in
terms of its influence on the economy.
No one knows who's getting that money or exactly how much of
it is disappearing through these new holes in the hull of America's
credit rating. Moreover, no one can really be sure if these
new institutions are even temporary at all - or whether they
are being set up as permanent, state-aided crutches to Wall
Street, designed to systematically suck bad investments off
the ledgers of irresponsible lenders.
"They're
supposed to be temporary," says Paul-Martin Foss, an aide
to Rep. Ron Paul. "But we keep getting notices every six
months or so that they're being renewed. They just sort of quietly
announce it."
None other than disgraced senator Ted Stevens was the poor sap
who made the unpleasant discovery that if Congress didn't like
the Fed handing trillions of dollars to banks without any oversight,
Congress could apparently go fuck itself - or so said the law.
When Stevens asked the GAO about what authority Congress has
to monitor the Fed, he got back a letter citing an obscure statute
that nobody had ever heard of before: the Accounting and Auditing
Act of 1950. The relevant section, 31 USC 714(b), dictated that
congressional audits of the Federal Reserve may not include
"deliberations, decisions and actions on monetary policy
matters." The exemption, as Foss notes, "basically
includes everything." According to the law, in other words,
the Fed simply cannot be audited by Congress. Or by anyone else,
for that matter.
VI. WINNERS AND LOSERS
Stevens isn't the only person in Congress to be given the finger
by the Fed. In January, when Rep. Alan Grayson of Florida asked
Federal Reserve vice chairman Donald Kohn where all the money
went - only $1.2 trillion had vanished by then - Kohn gave Grayson
a classic eye roll, saying he would be "very hesitant"
to name names because it might discourage banks from taking
the money.
"Has that ever happened?" Grayson asked. "Have
people ever said, 'We will not take your $100 billion because
people will find out about it?'"
"Well, we said we would not publish the names of the borrowers,
so we have no test of that," Kohn answered, visibly annoyed
with Grayson's meddling.
Grayson pressed on, demanding to know on what terms the Fed
was lending the money. Presumably it was buying assets and making
loans, but no one knew how it was pricing those assets - in
other words, no one knew what kind of deal it was striking on
behalf of taxpayers. So when Grayson asked if the purchased
assets were "marked to market" - a methodology that
assigns a concrete value to assets, based on the market rate
on the day they are traded - Kohn answered, mysteriously, "The
ones that have market values are marked to market." The
implication was that the Fed was purchasing derivatives like
credit swaps or other instruments that were basically impossible
to value objectively - paying real money for God knows what.
"Well, how much of them don't have market values?"
asked Grayson. "How much of them are worthless?"
"None are worthless," Kohn snapped.
"Then why don't you mark them to market?" Grayson
demanded.
"Well," Kohn sighed, "we are marking the ones
to market that have market values."
In essence, the Fed was telling Congress to lay off and let
the experts handle things. "It's like buying a car in a
used-car lot without opening the hood, and saying, 'I think
it's fine,'" says Dan Fuss, an analyst with the investment
firm Loomis Sayles. "The salesman says, 'Don't worry about
it. Trust me.' It'll probably get us out of the lot, but how
much farther? None of us knows."
When one considers the comparatively extensive system of congressional
checks and balances that goes into the spending of every dollar
in the budget via the normal appropriations process, what's
happening in the Fed amounts to something truly revolutionary
- a kind of shadow government with a budget many times the size
of the normal federal outlay, administered dictatorially by
one man, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. "We spend hours and
hours and hours arguing over $10 million amendments on the floor
of the Senate, but there has been no discussion about who has
been receiving this $3 trillion," says Sen. Bernie Sanders.
"It is beyond comprehension."
Count Sanders among those who don't buy the argument that Wall
Street firms shouldn't have to face being outed as recipients
of public funds, that making this information public might cause
investors to panic and dump their holdings in these firms. "I
guess if we made that public, they'd go on strike or something,"
he muses.
And the Fed isn't the only arm of the bailout that has closed
ranks. The Treasury, too, has maintained incredible secrecy
surrounding its implementation even of the TARP program, which
was mandated by Congress. To this date, no one knows exactly
what criteria the Treasury Department used to determine which
banks received bailout funds and which didn't - particularly
the first $350 billion given out under Bush appointee Hank Paulson.
The situation with the first TARP payments grew so absurd that
when the Congressional Oversight Panel, charged with monitoring
the bailout money, sent a query to Paulson asking how he decided
whom to give money to, Treasury responded - and this isn't a
joke - by directing the panel to a copy of the TARP application
form on its website. Elizabeth Warren, the chair of the Congressional
Oversight Panel, was struck nearly speechless by the response.
"Do you believe that?" she says incredulously. "That's
not what we had in mind."
Another member of Congress, who asked not to be named, offers
his own theory about the TARP process. "I think basically
if you knew Hank Paulson, you got the money," he says.
This cozy arrangement created yet another opportunity for big
banks to devour market share at the expense of smaller regional
lenders. While all the bigwigs at Citi and Goldman and Bank
of America who had Paulson on speed-dial got bailed out right
away - remember that TARP was originally passed because money
had to be lent right now, that day, that minute, to stave off
emergency — many small banks are still waiting for help. Five
months into the TARP program, some not only haven't received
any funds, they haven't even gotten a call back about their
applications.
"There's definitely a feeling among community bankers that
no one up there cares much if they make it or not," says
Tanya Wheeless, president of the Arizona Bankers Association.
Which, of course, is exactly the opposite of what should be
happening, since small, regional banks are far less guilty of
the kinds of predatory lending that sank the economy. "They're
not giving out subprime loans or easy credit," says Wheeless.
"At the community level, it's much more bread-and-butter
banking."
Nonetheless, the lion's share of the bailout money has gone
to the larger, so-called "systemically important"
banks. "It's like Treasury is picking winners and losers,"
says one state banking official who asked not to be identified.
This itself is a hugely important political development. In
essence, the bailout accelerated the decline of regional community
lenders by boosting the political power of their giant national
competitors.
Which, when you think about it, is insane: What had brought
us to the brink of collapse in the first place was this relentless
instinct for building ever-larger megacompanies, passing deregulatory
measures to gradually feed all the little fish in the sea to
an ever-shrinking pool of Bigger Fish. To fix this problem,
the government should have slowly liquidated these monster,
too-big-to-fail firms and broken them down to smaller, more
manageable companies. Instead, federal regulators closed ranks
and used an almost completely secret bailout process to double
down on the same faulty, merger-happy thinking that got us here
in the first place, creating a constellation of megafirms under
government control that are even bigger, more unwieldy and more
crammed to the gills with systemic risk.
In essence, Paulson and his cronies turned the federal government
into one gigantic, half-opaque holding company, one whose balance
sheet includes the world's most appallingly large and risky
hedge fund, a controlling stake in a dying insurance giant,
huge investments in a group of teetering megabanks, and shares
here and there in various auto-finance companies, student loans,
and other failing businesses. Like AIG, this new federal holding
company is a firm that has no mechanism for auditing itself
and is run by leaders who have very little grasp of the daily
operations of its disparate subsidiary operations.
In other words, it's AIG's rip-roaringly shitty business model
writ almost inconceivably massive — to echo Geithner, a huge,
complex global company attached to a very complicated investment
bank/hedge fund that's been allowed to build up without adult
supervision. How much of what kinds of crap is actually on our
balance sheet, and what did we pay for it? When exactly will
the rent come due, when will the money run out? Does anyone
know what the hell is going on? And on the linear spectrum of
capitalism to socialism, where exactly are we now? Is there
a dictionary word that even describes what we are now? It would
be funny, if it weren't such a nightmare.
VII. YOU DON'T GET IT
The real question from here is whether the Obama administration
is going to move to bring the financial system back to a place
where sanity is restored and the general public can have a say
in things or whether the new financial bureaucracy will remain
obscure, secretive and hopelessly complex. It might not bode
well that Geithner, Obama's Treasury secretary, is one of the
architects of the Paulson bailouts; as chief of the New York
Fed, he helped orchestrate the Goldman-friendly AIG bailout
and the secretive Maiden Lane facilities used to funnel funds
to the dying company. Neither did it look good when Geithner
- himself a protégé of notorious Goldman alum John Thain, the
Merrill Lynch chief who paid out billions in bonuses after the
state spent billions bailing out his firm — picked a former
Goldman lobbyist named Mark Patterson to be his top aide.
In fact, most of Geithner's early moves reek strongly of Paulsonism.
He has continually talked about partnering with private investors
to create a so-called "bad bank" that would systemically
relieve private lenders of bad assets — the kind of massive,
opaque, quasi-private bureaucratic nightmare that Paulson specialized
in. Geithner even refloated a Paulson proposal to use TALF,
one of the Fed's new facilities, to essentially lend cheap money
to hedge funds to invest in troubled banks while practically
guaranteeing them enormous profits.
God knows exactly what this does for the taxpayer, but hedge-fund
managers sure love the idea. "This is exactly what the
financial system needs," said Andrew Feldstein, CEO of
Blue Mountain Capital and one of the Morgan Mafia. Strangely,
there aren't many people who don't run hedge funds who have
expressed anything like that kind of enthusiasm for Geithner's
ideas.
As complex as all the finances are, the politics aren't hard
to follow. By creating an urgent crisis that can only be solved
by those fluent in a language too complex for ordinary people
to understand, the Wall Street crowd has turned the vast majority
of Americans into non-participants in their own political future.
There is a reason it used to be a crime in the Confederate states
to teach a slave to read: Literacy is power. In the age of the
CDS and CDO, most of us are financial illiterates. By making
an already too-complex economy even more complex, Wall Street
has used the crisis to effect a historic, revolutionary change
in our political system - transforming a democracy into a two-tiered
state, one with plugged-in financial bureaucrats above and clueless
customers below.
The most galling thing about this financial crisis is that so
many Wall Street types think they actually deserve not only
their huge bonuses and lavish lifestyles but the awesome political
power their own mistakes have left them in possession of. When
challenged, they talk about how hard they work, the 90-hour
weeks, the stress, the failed marriages, the hemorrhoids and
gallstones they all get before they hit 40.
"But wait a minute," you say to them. "No one
ever asked you to stay up all night eight days a week trying
to get filthy rich shorting what's left of the American auto
industry or selling $600 billion in toxic, irredeemable mortgages
to ex-strippers on work release and Taco Bell clerks. Actually,
come to think of it, why are we even giving taxpayer money to
you people?
hy
are we not throwing your ass in jail instead?"
But before you even finish saying that, they're rolling their
eyes, because You Don't Get It. These people were never about
anything except turning money into money, in order to get more
money; valueswise they're on par with crack addicts, or obsessive
sexual deviants who burgle homes to steal panties. Yet these
are the people in whose hands our entire political future now
rests.
Good luck with that, America. And enjoy tax season.
(This
article was not written by Adrian Page or any member of Financial
Page International and it does not necessarily represent the
views of Financial Page International or its staff).
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